The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.
423 Comments
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Has Turnball ever spoken up against the treatment of asylum seekers?
Petro Georgiou and Judi Moylan were the only ones to stand up against Howard.
Back to Wentworth, what about the other parties, especially the climate change ones.. how do they figure into the preferences?
Do you honestly think HH anyone cares about asylum seekers? after all it was a big factor in 2001?
Kevin on sky news says workchoices is a dogs breakfast, link below
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
There’s got to be some crap Liberal candidates to balance those out though where it will cut the other way! I’m gonna be really pissed if you are right though, esp if that rumour you posted last night was true!
ESJ: does Siev X mean anything to you? Howard was responsible for 400 people drowning in Australian waters.
Get real you Labor supporters. Turnbull is a bum on a seat in parliament. Add up the numbers and you see who wins the election.
Let the other side find another seat for Malcolm if Wentworth goes to the ALP. Are you so cocky about the election that you are being warm and generous about the Libs future well-being. For god’s sake, get a grip.
Well diogenes, its good we didnt name any names last night, if your thinking what I am thinking!
If Turnbull endorsed WorkChoices (248) I hope he bites the dust – and painfully.
Sigh… ESJ:
your =/= you’re
HH,
The morality or otherwise of a decision is not the issue.
The effect of the decision in political/voting terms is the only consideration.
No one cares about:
Refugees
Homeless
The “poor”
Those that do vote Labor already and many others dont.
Bryce, well said mate!
So if Rudd won 15 seats and just fell short in Wentworth, you people would be prepared to sacrifice a Labor victory so moneybags Turnball, your new poster boy, stays in parliament?
Where is the evidence Turnball would be a new compassionate, caring, sharing Liberal leader?
I should clarify HH, people do care but not in voting terms is what I meant to say! Otherwise why would JWH have won 4 elections?
Now the Telegraph want me to start a blog. Mater still says she wont speak to me again if I do. Should I risk my inheritence for my principles? What to do , what to do….
Definitely a problem with Antony’s calculator. If you set the swing to 0 (with the pulldown box at top), or, just go to the base url with no query:
- Paramatta is shown on Liberal side (correctly) but not shown as a gain
- Isaacs & Cowan shown as gains for Liberal
- Makin shown as gain for Labor
so it’s just an accident that the overall numbers come out right.
Iron Maiden (according to UrbanDictionary)
A torture/execution device from Medieval Germany, which consists of an iron coffin lined with spikes on the inside of the doors. The doors were closed SLOWLY so that the accused criminal would suffer maximum pain and anguish, sometimes for days, before finally dying of the resulting puncture wounds and suffocation.
Meh! All this rubbish of Libs winning on 48%. If a swing is on it is on and ALP can win with just a 2.7% national swing and 50% tpp.
Put these in Antony’s calculator;
NSW 1.7%
VIC 0.2%
QLD 6.3%
WA 2.0%
SA 7.2%
TAS 2.9%
NT 2.9%
Overall swing 2.7% ALP 50.0% TPP ALP 75 seats, LNP 73 seats.
So does anyone seriously believe the current 56/44 will fall to 50/50 over the next 13 days? It’s the bloody primaries that is killing the Libs and they aren’t moving.
Diogenes + Edward StJohn
What rumour?
ESJ: fair point!
Reason why Rudd has said zilch on immigration/refugees.
HH, I think you’re twisting the words of most people here. I’m sure they’d all be happy for him to be the 16th seat, they’d just rather someone else was instead.
We’re going a bit far if we can’t even point out the few good points of one Liberal without being accused of being weak.
Fulvio its not your politics your comments just arent that interesting old son!
New nomination for sexiest politician:
Melissa Parks
Labor candidate for Fremantle
Let It End @ 267
It will depend on where the big swing is. If it in QLD and SA then less is needed than if it VIC and NSW. Also if the swing is not as big as the polls say then good marginal seat polls can limit a lot of the losses to the Liberals.
Malcolm Turnball loves one thing and one thing only… Malcolm Turnball.
He couldn’t give a f**k about coalition policy or values. He entered politics for one reason… to become PM (not to better the country but better himself) and I wouldn’t be suprised if he attempted to join the Labor party previously so he can enter politics and reach his PM dream with them, but Labor told him to go get f**ked, cos he is a rich, pompous prick which would fit in well in the Liberal Party.
He is a Clear & Present Danger to Australian society and must be eliminated (as Malcolm X said) by any means necessary.
BTW – my prediction for the record… 148 seats to Labor & 2 Independents in Oppositon. Margin of Error – 2 seats
I quite like Bruce Billson, but I’d be happy for Labor to win his seat.
ESJ!
What do you expect to gain out of your denials?
The Siev X situation, the Government’s approach to it, is real.
Read something!
You need not expect any positives over your death dealing attitude, here.
So, shutup.
How utterly disgusting it is that these people were allowed to die, for the purposes of JWH.
Matt @ 248.
Good sample size and I know your right about King’s preferences, but I cant help feeling the moe is in Turnbulls favour in this one. Unfortunately I live on the wrong side of a street that puts me in Kingsford Smith (allthough I do get to vote for PG!!!!!). Oh to be on the other side of the street and be the vote…..
I think we’ll just have to wait for the night to see who is right on this one.
Pity those of us, like me, who live in ultra safe Liberal seats. Election after election, my vote for Labor is a complete waste of time.
I have to comfort myself with the thought that my senate vote counts at least.
(formerly: SJP) I too, thought that Turnbull would be a great rallying figure for small “l” Liberals. My wife, who despises the Liberals even more than I do, finds him the least offensive of the Cabinet ministers.
However, he as a cabinet minister supported Workchoices. He also crapped on about “how Australia leads the world in action on Climate Change”!!! How can a man of his intelligence espouse such b*llsh*t? He certainly sold out his integrity and decency and IMHO deserves to lose his seat.
In the coming political bloodbath on Nov.24th no Howard minister deserves to be re-elected! NO PRISIONERS!!
NO PRISIONERS!!
NO PRISIONERS!!
Death Dealing Denials?
What exactly are you accusing me of Crikey Whitey? I dont really understand your post?
For the record – I have not been a member of a right wing paramilitary death squad (if thats what your getting at?)
273 Stephen. You keep hoping mate but you just don’t have any good marginal polls. The example I gave was using only 50% tpp and we all know it will be a LOT more than that.
275
Completely right. Malcom Turnbull loves only himself
NB : I know what you mean, as I said before I don’t expect Turnbull to lose, barring a further Liberal collapse. In fact a poll showing he is danger is (unfortunately) exactly what he needs to get some of those ‘protest voters’ back on board.
Don’t feel sorry for Turnbull, he can go back to his $100m, and he didn’t even have the guts to stand up to Howard the Dictator.
ESJ- I am reliably informed that you are incorrect. Let the matter never raise its ugly head again. And to all you Turnbull haters who have just joined, please see my post at 177. Turnbull walked out of that studio with an arse like a Japanes flag!
HH @ 279
Imagine if you were ina safe Labor seat, but if you lived on the other side of the road wer in a marginal???? Oh the anguish.
Went past some Turnbull campaigners this morning. Was stuck for a civil way of telling them to f**k off out of my neighbourhood. Anyone got a good suggetion?
I really don’t know where some posters get the idea that the marginals won’t swing as much as the national average.
Polling actually shows they are swinging more than the average. Possibly due the the grassroots campaign being run by the unions.
Winston – you’re not talking about Wentworth?
Diogenes,
I am told they met at the footy? any truth to that?
ESJ, re asylum seekrs. the real issue is that perhaps howard has alienated a group of people from ever voting liberal, not just at this election. it maybe not important to this election, but it has redefined the liberal party for some.
“The chance to beat Downer by finding a strong independent has been missed.”
Adam, badly missed opportunity for an up and comer to get some profile as events have panned out. Brian Deegan didn’t have the goods in 2004, but when the Dems where still players back in 2001, John Suchuman gave Dolly a serious fright.
I suspect The Man from Mayo will miss the lime-light badly in the next parliament, especially when he twigs that from Opposition, the Costello/Downer “Dream Team” will be just that; the stuff of fantasy.
ESJ.
Exactly as I mentioned earlier, as seems to be true of most Liberal voters, absolutely heartless, everyone is expendable, except you.
Small minded, racist, religious, economic, social bigots.
Don’t care less, about any greater good.
Keep your greatcoat to cover your uniform, you may feel the need to hide.
Not because we would stone you, but your time is up, for the time being.
And read the posts, before you start asking for reiterations.
HH@278, I know exactly what you mean. Just enjoy yourself and write a nice essay on the ballot paper explaining how you feel about the sitting member. Having been a scrutineer previously I can assure you that it’ll be read and disseminated amongst the polling officials. Just make sure that you don’t obscure the boxes, that’d make it informal.
NB (288)
No – not specifically Wentworth – as some have commented it’s difficult to work out what the “real” margin is. I’m talking about average swing in marginals seats. Don’t have a good grip on what’s happening in Wentworth but I don’t think Turnbull should be feeling too confident.
Possibly Nath,
I would say the ALP has bought the same analysis that people care about “me” issues above all else and dont really think or car about “me, you and all of us” issues when it comes to voting.
Homelessness is one of the real tragedies. The Liberals ignore it and I think Labor promised a measly 10 year plan (which is meaningless). Surely in 2007 we could afford to give everyone a place to sleep?
It is one of the reasons I am v.cynical about politics.
Suspect there might be some more flak coming at Turnbull before the big day. I think G Cousins could be a soldier for those dark Clarkish forces in the LP who want to stop Malcolm ascending to the leadership by cutting him off at the knees in his seat. Reasons could include: his rationality (relative of course) which doesn’t sit well with religious zealots; his relative independence of mind (again relative!); his republicanism (even stronger than Costello’s); and his general wetness. If they knock him off in Wentworth they will stack better than they did in Cook to keep him at bay in the future if he looks for another seat. Maybe a preview of an almighty bloodbath in the Libs when they lose.
ESJ-I believe that is the case. And the whole family was there. There is definitely nothing to it. And to HH 272- I haven’t seen Melissa Parks but I have seen Kate Ellis and Mia Handshin who are both gorgeous. When things were looking bad a few weeks ago after the Rodent’s $34B bribe, I thought of writing to Rudd to suggest Kate and Mia have a nationally televised jello-wrestle.
A lot of what needs to be taken into account in Wentworth is the change of the shape of the electorate. It now juts out into Kings Cross, Paddington, Darlinghurst and (gasp) even my own neighborhood of Surry Hills. (If they rejigger the boundaries again after this election, I may be in Wentworth.) Say what you want about the botoxed bluebloods in Double Bay, there’s a whole lot of rather more left-wing voters in Wentworth now, and they’re what’s brought the margin down to 2.5%.
I reckon it extremely unlikely that Malcolm can win, given the swing that’s so obviously on.
so its 2 legs bad 4 legs good is it Crikey Whitey?
How sad, our politics is reduced to barracking for a football team ! And my team is never wrong!
People like you shoot people in revolutions! For the good of the people of course!
NB @ #224
The TPP swing to ALP in Wentworth in 2004 was 2.38%.
Another 5 Liberal held seats in Sydney had similar, or larger, swings to the ALP.
Warringah 2.18%
Bradfield 2.65%
North Sydney 3.19%
Bennelong 3.38%
Berowra 3.49%
None of these seats had Peter King as a candidate.
Double Bay is only one booth. It is the total from all booths that determine the outcome. Unfortunately for the Libs, each time electorate expands, the strong Lib booths make up a smaller proportion of the total.
BTW, I have no idea who will win Wentworth.
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