• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.
• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.
• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.
• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.
• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.
• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.
• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.
• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country”. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.
1,127 Comments
Why would anyone give Glenn bozo Milne the time of day let alone ‘Definitive’ anything.
well thw poisoned dwarf is at it again playing his part for the coalition dirt unit.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22738133-5006010,00.html
Samantha Maiden’s piece shows just how out of touch the Murdoch press is with the real world. Not even a serious attempt to analyse the blogging phenomenon, just name calling and spleen venting. Do they realise perhaps that their days of controlling what people think and read are numbered. The media in this country are a disgrace (witness the gay headline on the weekend), time for some serious enquiry into how they operate.
BTW, the Club Bloggery response is excellent, worth a read.
Good on Lindsay
……. If this helps deliver some seats to the ALP through preferences from the Greens, it will be a huge plus
Morning William, Was that morgage ‘Stress’ in para two or morgage ’seats’
Julie, the Greens preference thing highlights that they don’t really want to preference anyone but they need to think through the reaction to preferencing Kevin Andrews for example.
Labor is bad
Coalition is good!
Anyone is better
Than Kevin Andrews.
I’m glad that Milne has written a short piece throwing mud at the Labor party. Imagine the amount of copy he would have to produce if he began to seriously write about the factional brawling within the Liberal Party at both state and federal level.
I would suggest that he could begin with a piece on the Queensland coalition and work his way around the country. Finishing episode ten with a reason on why the Federal Coalition has been unable to resolve its leadership issues and giving reasons why such a rabble has become unelectable.
Whether anyone would take seriously anything Milne writes is another story.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22737888-5006009,00.html
It’s said that Janette supports capital punishment in ‘limited circumstances’
I suspect thats just in the case of political opponents. Watch out Peter and Kevin!
Ditto …… I don’t live in this electorate but surely anyone who does and votes for Andrews has heaps of explaining to do to justify why the actions he has taken in the Haneef affair have been a good thing. Because that is what you would be doing, justifying those actions as alright, IF you registered a vote of (1) Andrews in this seat.
Ave it 07, I guess it’s been a VERY long time between drinks for you Pom Tories. Utterly obliterated in 97, and still below 200 seats in a House of around 640. No wonder Howard’s your hero, but it sure looks like his days are numbered. Oh well, maybe you Pom Tories will get all the way to 250 seats in 2010.
the coalition is in overdrive distributing fake letters, heres more to add to the car manufacturers one trumpeted by Shanahan on the GG thursday, it’s about time these tricks were given more publicity.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jason-koutsoukis/2007/11/10/1194329566789.html?page=2
Yep – seriously doubt anyone in the ALP would take the time to talk to Milne.
Lord D @ 12 – if Howard is the only hero for the Pommy Tories, I feel very sorry for them. Very sorry indeed.
13 Fake letters have always played a part in Federal election campaigns when there is a big swing on. I can’t personally remember a time that a fake letter helped out a dead or dying rabble who was about to be swept from power.
Usually it just goes into the mix of reasons why they are out of touch and must exit for the betterment of the nation.
15 On this basis the Pommy Tories will have a new hero in Gridlock Campbell of Brisbane City Council from November 25. Who will look after their interests from March next year when Gridlock Campbell is swept from office in the final roundup of Liberals by a disappointed public, though?
Does anyone have details of the scheduling time for the debate on Tuesday between Julia and Downer? I know it is Tuesday and is in Sydney, hosted by Laurie Oakes – but what I am trying to find out is the timing. I want to see it but if the thing is on during the daytime, I need to know so I can rearrange my day time schedule.
I checked 9msn’s website but no details were forthcoming there …..
12 – Hello Lord D – looking good for us Cons in Britain. Certs to win in 2010 with Camo!
But you Australians are lucky – you have the chance to elect another conservative government in a few weeks!
Poor MSM M/s Maiden, Shenanaghan et al, tried to stir up the Henny Penny narrative from Team Rodent that the teh evil unions would… (blah blah), but now Foxy Loxy in the form of the electors is primed to lop the heads off those messengers. The King will never get to hear that the sky is falling…(so sad, too bad, never mind)
And what a narrative it has been: interest rates hikes are good while being simultaneously bad, SerfChoices keeps wages low while simultaneously the workers have never had it so good; [underlying security narrative-we're killing teh evil terrorists over in Iraq so we don't have to kill the Dr Haneefs over here]; inflation is so bad that’s why we’re pork barrelling like there’s no tomorrow; vote for moi, Johnny Economic Angel today so I can retire tomorrow (beg beg, plead plead…grovel…plead); only we teh Economic Masters can handle the resources boom by spending it all on pork and Pacific Solutions…)
As to you scumbag, lying, lefty, evil unionist supporting blog posting filth, non respecters of our MSM Newspoll owning wisdom; communist, “wog” loving, homosexual louts etc etc:
Am so looking forward to some humble pie, crow eating therof from the GG, but then again, a Donald Rumsfeld time will undoubtedly come… “I/we never said that!” will be their ultimate defence.
Would’ve been fun if we had the Oz equivalent to http://www.backwardsbush.com
Bush has only 436 days 7hrs 1 min…to go….
equivalent of…
18 can’t find anything about this but it will be interesting if it turns out to be nuclear power that Downer still wants to debate about.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Downer-wants-debate-on-enriched-uranium/2006/05/21/1148150119875.html
Well, Crikey’s rumour was right in the end. From the Murdoch Press, only the hit day was a bit later and the target was Julia Gilliard rather than Rudd. Of course, 99% of posts in here predicted it would be Milne. I assume this will backfire even worse than the silly “Strippergate” smear that Milne dished out with all the sanctimony of a John Pilger.
How many woman out there have either been done dirt by some bastard or at least have close friends or relatives whose heart has been broken by some cad?
This will only enhance Gilliard’s public “image” as well as undermine any other stupid rubbish which might be thrown from the Coalition’s dirt units.
According to Hugh McKay, one of the factors in the major shift of Baby Boomers to Labor this election is a return to their ’60’s idealism, a significant aspect of which McKay reckons is the transformation in the status of women. Those Baby Boomers and the children they raised are not going to appreciate seeing a successful baby-boomer woman like Gilliard being slimed.
minchin is on press the meat (ch10)
I see where Adelaide’s ‘Sunday Mail’ has concluded that “VOTERS in a key South Australian election battleground have given Prime Minister John Howard a ringing endorsement, saying they are unsure if Kevin Rudd can handle the role of prime minister.” They used a focus group. How many people in the focus group? SEVEN.
Real scientific research that.
Sky has announced debates next week between the Education Minister and
Shadow on Thursday (back to back with the Foreign Affairs debate) and on Friday with the Communication Minister and Shadow. Friday’s affair is on an expanded Agenda late in the afternoon and don’t know the forum for the Thursday Education debate. The Foreign Affairs debate is midday at the NPC in Canberra.
Still seems that Nelson is the minister that they are hiding =)
23 Steve,
I think Pakistan will dominate the debate, although nuclear policies might get a bit of a go ………
Union ads blast Govt over AWAs
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/11/2087477.htm
The Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) is stepping up its anti-government advertising as the election campaign enters its final fortnight.
Labor gets personal in campaign climax
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22737604-952,00.html
IN A dramatic switch in campaign strategy, Labor will use the last two weeks of the election to personally target Prime Minister John Howard.
The research will drive a new Labor advertising campaign featuring a picture of an untrustworthy-looking Mr Howard with the words, “He’s retiring”, and a stamp stating, “It’s official”.
To suggest that no one in the ALP would deal with Glen Milne is incredibly naive. Wayne Swan, and stephen Conroy in particular spend an enourmous amount of time and energy cultivating favour with that grub.
I have a feeling that it is starting to come together for Labor. The Murdoch press aren’t exactly on Rudd’s side yet but they are showing signs of acceptance of a Labor victory. On Greet the Mess this morn, Milne and other journo gave Minchin a hard time I thought. It looks as though the negative Labor ads are starting up and they do have lots of ammunition! If Newspoll on Tuesday is bad for the Libs, it’s game over. The Labor win will be seats in the 80s, no huge landslide. But, my inner soul wants to see those lying bastards absolutely destroyed for a long time to come.
It’s about time Sharan put her money where her mouth is.
Without a doubt, this is the most contentious issue of the election and this workchoices thing should be fazed out post haste.
I hate this and I”M AN EMPLOYER!!!
31 – not during this election.
Ave it #19, I take it there is a typo in your last line where you meant to say “eject” another conservative government.
Just amazing isn’t it. How to make Rudd look human and along comes strippergate. How to make Gillard look feminine and along comes cadgate.
If things go on like this the labor campaign team will go on strike insisting that the Liberal team stop doing their work.
Perhaps the labor team could balance things up by doing a few favors for the Liberals.
Please tell me someone has read the article in today’s Sydney Sun-Herald. By Miranda Devine – what John and Janette Howard “really” think of Kevin Rudd. Some pearlers from Howard:
* The electorate isn’t hostile, but they were when he was Treasurer – “I wasn’t PM then”. Although some people do come up and say you’ve “blanketdy blanked the country” or “I’ve been sacked unfairly blah blah blah blah” (actual quote), but it’s “all part of the fun”. So what if you were actually sacked unfairly, blah blah blah?
* Kevin Rudd doesn’t stand for anything
* Keating isn’t particularly intelligent
Who cares what Janette thinks, she isn’t a parliamentarian and secondly, why is Howard only telling us what he “really” thinks now, if he is so upfront.
Glenn Milne is already being forced to retract part of the dirt story:
Early editions of the Sunday Telegraph contained an allegation that Ms Gillard had incorporated funds used by Mr Wilson.
The Sunday Telegraph acknowledges that this allegation is entirely untrue. This error was made by The Sunday Telegraph.
Wayne Swan on Insiders now. Will Milne show up?
From the initial brief scan of the panel, it looked like Piers Akerman, David Marr and a woman, perhaps Mischa Schubert.
Cassidy gave Swan a good going over but Swan looked and sounded confident and assertive.
Was it me or was Barry Cassidy a bit easy on Swan?
Who are these knobbs on insiders????
Expect the Coalition to seize on Swan’s acknowledgement that there were economic mistakes made by the Hawke/Keating administrations – and that a Rudd Labor government will learn from them.
So who is right 41 or 42?
I have heard that out of the Howards, Janette is the rampant racist, not John. He has evidently taken many of his more despicable policies to shut her up.
Gary Bruce @ 45 – Swan was good and strong, but it seemed to me that Barry threw out a few Dorothy Dixers.
44 – such an acknowledgement can only go down well. It means Labor have learned form any mistakes made. No government is perfect. This government has made many mistakes and has admittied some, though not enough.
I wonder whether Labor is right now wrestling with the question: “Should we spend significantly less than the Coalition in election promises in the remaining two weeks in order to look more economically responsibe in the light of the interest rate rise and the statement by the RBA?”
41 and 42 – I thought it was pretty even handed (wink to gb)
The Barry Cassidy’s ABC Insiders panel this morning has Piers Ackerman, David Marr and Lenore Taylor from the Australian Fin. Review.
Before that, they had a “panel” of three “typical ordinary” working blokes from Flemington Race Course, with 2 of them strongly in favour of Howard. You can’t say the ABC isn’t doing it’s best to support Howard in any sneaky way possible.
Cassidy also gave Swan an extra tough interview to make doubly sure his program won’t be axed if Howard is returned. Piers is following up some of Barry’s key attack points now in the panel discussion.
Paul Kelly, despite being Murdoch media, was mostly being even-handed in his analysis, so he’s the “Good Cop” to Piers’ “Bad Cop” I guess.
50 – Thanks Bryce, that’s made it a lot clearer – NOT. (LOL)
I live in Fisher & it’s primed for a big swing. Slipper (ex Joh for pm) is invisible & there is a high profile FM breakfast announcer running as an independent.
The seat has lost tory Buderim & gained the Glasshouse Mountains hinterland which is angry over equine flu. Kawana/Caloundra is full of young mortgaged families. The council amalgamation is a non-event with Caloundra & Maroochy in favour of it. If the ALP runs 3rd, Slippery might get the boot.
Dear Samantha
Further to your article entitled ‘Blogged down in pessimism of the Left’ I provide this confession to you.
Firstly I will observe that my understanding is that you would not have been responsible for the title. Which is a little bit silly, as unhelpful as the old left – right tags are if you are left leaning with strong conviction you left the labor party in the 1980’s for pastures more green and less central.
Oh and your first sentence identifies us correctly as ‘labor loving pessimists’, the word infested is a little bit unnecessary, a little bit unkind and the implied comparison to lice a little bit hurtful. But we pessimists are a tough lot. Speaking about being a tough lot we wake to yet another sparkling, high quality bit of journalism from your publisher.
“Early editions of the Sunday Telegraph contained an allegation that Ms Gillard had incorporated funds used by Mr Wilson.
The Sunday Telegraph acknowledges that this allegation is entirely untrue. This error was made by The Sunday Telegraph.”
This disclaimer wasn’t even at the top of the story, and the story above still went as far as it could to link Ms Gillard through a couple of quite silly smears to the wrong doing of a former lover or partner.
Oh and did you note that the wrong doing appeared to have been discovered in 1995, that is quite a long time ago Sam. So it is a very very old, very very weak, and when your publisher first published it very very wrong story. But we are not surprised us ‘labor loving pessimists’ we see this kind or brilliant accurate and important journalism about Her Majesty’s opposition all the time.
We have even come to accept that your publisher will not publish a suggestion the Government is involved in actual misuse of power: why would it Crikey does that. We know Mr Milne, named as the writer of today’s brilliant, relevant and well researched piece holds a special love and respect for Crikey and wouldn’t try and compete in their space.
We do note that Crikey actually has a suggested wrong or misuse of power by the Government in their stories, whereas your publisher seems quite content with ancient stories of someone else’s wrong and a couple of vague proximity smears to Her Majesty’s opposition.
But then like Crikey your publisher can’t be expected to be better than its sources and it is apparent the Government dirt-unit is functioning about as well as the rest of the Government, but then again your publisher considers the Government to be functioning well so surely can’t be blamed for publishing weak, irrelevant and even wrong stories.
It is ironic that this mornings smear is still a desperate link ‘through Ms Gillard’s law firm’ because that old legal excuse, that a lawyer is only as good as her instructions seems to have a significantly poignant application to your publisher this morning.
But I digress we ‘labor lovinig pessimists’ are a tough lot and are used to this kind of situation.
Although I would ask you, how does it feel to have all my discussion so far based on a story credited to someone else? Your story as our beloved PB points out is a bit of harmless fun and this mornings effort is a serious article (although originally wrong) trying to directly impact voters away from the labor party during an election. How could I possibly be so unfair as to try and discuss your efforts through focusing on a completely unrelated article in a newspaper on a different day? Well may you ask.
But Sam there is a sentence of yours I did want to question. I know it was just a bit of fun, and when I read it I chuckled. But really you have summed up the situation for us ‘labor loving pessimists’, well. You have two almost perfect sentences.
The first:
“Each Newspoll is greeted with fear, trepidation, excitement and furious reinterpretation. The Australian’s analysis of the result is always wrong.”
Enough said really: although this admission should probably have been published by those who have consistently got both the analysis of the actual poll (and their prediction of the ‘narrowing’ in the next poll) wrong all year. It is a bit harsh making you put such a significant admission (yes I know it has been blatantly obvious to anyone reading the work of Bryan, PB or Possum all year but for your publisher still a very significant admission) in your piece of fun.
The second is:
“But now the blogs are starting to call that a comeback may be on for the Government – the great fear they have spent the year furiously denying. “
Now you would know, my dear Sam, that I could not and do not say it is impossible there is a ‘comeback for the Government’ on now, but your research lets you down in two ways. Firstly Bryan spent a lot of time and took a lot of flack for graphing the Government’s comeback, and to defend him, as I did at the time, the numbers did suggest for a period, nid-year, that there might be a Government comeback.
No no, Sam, stick with me, this is important: while the polling was clearly pointing to a labor landslide, if the numbers were repeated in a poll in a Federal Election, and while your publisher could not conceive of any outcome other than a victoriously returned Government, we ‘labor loving pessimists’ were actually reading and studying the possibility the blind faith of your publisher (blind faith in that it wasn’t just in the absence of evidence to support it, but actually completely contrary to all the evidence available) would be rewarded. And yes we ‘labor loving pessimists’ still fear it – greatly.
But leaving aside what is happening now as I write, and what will happen over the next two weeks, still a matter of inexpressible fear, you could perhaps have observed that we had nothing at all to deny: there has been NO GOVERNMENT comeback. Oh and yes I know your publisher never noticed the Government was behind until the PM himself gave permission in that well covered ‘annihilation’ talk to the Lib / Nat caucus, but still NO GOVERNMENT comeback, we don’t have to deny something that didn’t happen.
Finally my dear Sam, a couple of points.
Firstly Labor needs good female candidates for the next election (win or lose this one) and you will have noticed how consistently I’ve defended Ms Cornes against the ongoing abuse which I consider firmly grounded in sexism and little else. I will defend you too, it is my promise. Yes even as your former publisher tries to humiliate you and ground your reputation and soul into the muck, and even as apparently staunch labor pessimists inexplicably join in this abuse, I will defend you. Probably wont do either of us much good, but there you go, we ‘labor loving pessimists’ are a tough lot.
Lastly I look forward to you joining us tomorrow night, if are fears are realised with a 51:49 poll you will be able to write a great follow-up, full of humor, which none of us will be able to read through our tears which will last all week. If the narrowing your publisher is so intent on making happening fails, yet again to eventuate you will see a joy and happiness those stuck in the narrow mindset of your publisher have no chance of understanding and you will have a great insight into how to start the post Rudd-slide work with your publisher.
All my love, yours ever pessimistically
jas.
FFS ABC. Get rid of Hackerman.
Great open letter Jas
Jas 54, it would take me weeks to do that much typing! Well done!
Its hard for one who lives in Brisbane and doe’s not live with the advantages of day light saving having to hear the broadcast of political interviews being telegraphed to me & I have to wait an hour to see it myself. It sucks!
58 Aussieguru01 – we can’t all live in the best state in Australia (Vic).
So I guess you guys are saying that when I get to see Insiders I will be spending much time (again) hurling abuse at the TV every time Ackerman spews forth his perennial bile.
Cant wait.
Too true, Gary Bruce!
I’m now convinced Piers Ackermann is a complete dill. Just blatant spin for the Coalition.
62 Sondeo
Lenore Taylor is wiping the floor with Piers. She’s the best panel member I’ve seen on there all year.
Minchin on Meet The Press this morning.
He said, with emphasis, that the government wants to be fair to employees. Hence the ‘fairness’ test.
He agreed that the fairness test represents a major rollback of their own policy. Admitting therefore, that WorkChoices, as introduced, WAS unfair. (This is borne out by the report in Howard’s biography that the Cabinet introduced WorkChoices in the full knowledge that people would be hurt and worse off.)
Remember, this is the fellow who actually apologised to the HR Nicholls Society that WorkChoices (the unfair original) did not go far enough! Frankly, I think he is an extremist representing the dangerous cutting edge of right wing lunacy in Australia. Having vowed to take WorkChoices further, they cannot be trusted with another term.
Hemmingway @ 63
She’s not taking crap from Piers. He twists everything. He’s being shown up !
Very good editorial in the Sunday Mail about why not to vote for Mr X. It will make a dent in his vote. And they have strongly endorsed him in the past.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22736861-5006336,00.html
These reports confirm that there is more spin about polling than at the GABBA this week. Anyone who has the faintest idea what is going on in Western Australia has been consulting the entrails again. Westpoll is a joke and the mass media have one paper monopoly. All the regional papers bar one are owned by the West Australian. There are very few campaign stories in the regions in the electronic media. Even ABC News online has very little coverage despite its local radio network. ‘Labor View from Broome’
And the best thing about Jasmine’s excellent letter is that the grubs at News Ltd will read it, because we know they all sneak over to the blogs for a peek when no-one’s looking. Samantha Maiden, although she has been fairly quiet this campaign, is a notorious Liberal attack dog. (What’s the term for a female dog? I forget.)
Your right Gary & RGee, I should count my blessings.
I was tricked into reading a Miranda Devine article over at the SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tagteam-assault-by-howards/2007/11/10/1194329563863.html
It’s interesting because it shows that Nettie really does hold the leash and write the lines. It also shows that Howard is completely oblivious to the anti-Howard sentiment.
And another on their ‘It’s the economy’ approach.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Coalition-launch-to-focus-on-economy/2007/11/11/1194724810206.html
They still haven’t figured out that the more they talk about the economy, the more people worry about the security of their jobs, the more they worry about the impact of SerfChoices, the more they take on the experiences of friends and relatives with SerfChoices, and the more they think about not voting Liberal.
Sorry to be giving Spoilers to those who see the program later. Typical NSW-centric myopia! But you’ve got a real treat coming with Lenore Taylor. Without her, Cassidy would just do his usual feckless job of letting Piers run wild.
The thing I have loathed about the infiltration of the ABC Board, and subsequently the increased profile of obviously right-wing pundits, is that the ABC seems to have forgotten that it used to provide intelligent political debate. By all means have members of the right on to provide opinion, but can we please have intelligent and well measured opinions presented? I disagree with Gerard Henderson’s positions, but at least you know the man has a brain and knows how to use it. Piers Ackerman this morning was a disgrace. What on earth was his comment about “those women” who feature in the Labor Party ads. The sooner the ABC Board goes back to a central, less partisan position the better, and then my screen will no longer be subject to the idiocy that is Ackerman, Bolt and friends.
Rx @ 64
Good report. Thanks, I missed the show.
Lenore Taylor is just so damn sexy the way she puts Piers back in his box. Piers is the worst panelist on Insiders. Ever. All he does is spew Liberal talking points, and when questioned on it (as Lenore did beautifully this morning) he proved he either doesn’t understand what he’s saying or have anything to back it up.
At least other conservative panelists (Gerard Henderson, Glen Milne) are entertaining or can actually debate. Come on Aunty – boot Jabba the Hut and get someone worthwhile. Even (gasp) Miranda Devine would be better, God help me.
Insiders
Piers exposed for a fool – I doubt Lenore would agree to appear with him again. It’s like debating a 3 year old who’s just learnt the word ‘why?’ – he appears to be participating (if you’ve got the sound turned off), but the sh*t coming out of his head is unbelievable.
Like Howard, the meaning he attributes to words is so very different to that accepted by the general community.
David Marr and Lenore took the piss out of Piers and he didn’t even realise it – his time is up ABC; I can get that sort of crap from Today Tonight.
Good stuff Jas 54,off to watch Insiders now.Being an hour behind in Qld enables to pick and choose what to watch
BrissyRob,
I suggest you do what I do. Bring down the sock draw and throw them at the TV. My partneris getting cunning though. She also gets me to pair up the socks from this weeks wahsing between 8.30 and 9.00 every Sunday morning.
Keep Piers on; he’s just so hopeless!
Jai-mei – Jabba the Hutt is FAR more appealing than Ackerman.
Greeensborough Growler – LOL
Good idea!
Jas@54
brilliant letter-says it all really
well done
Further proof today that Hyacinth Howard is pulling the strings on her dopey husband. How dare she break convention and involve herself in an election campaign! The Liberals think this will actually help them? Of course the MSM won’t say a thing about this. You can imagine that if the situation was reversed and Rudd had attacked Mrs Howard, the hacks would be out there calling for Kev’s head on a platter – frigging hypocrites! I’ll be cheering loudly when the old bitch is dragged out of Kirribilli kicking and screaming!
I’m guessing that fat arsehole Ackermann gets more dinner invitations than Smirky to Castle Howard.
Lenore Nicklin has been the best journo on Insiders all year. She won’t take any crap from Toad Ackerman and the Bolter. George Mega is next best. Next year it would be nice to see some different right wingers on the show. I just hope there will be some subtle payback to some journos when Labor get in to power.
And does anyone here complain about David Marr’s blatant cheering and propaganda for the ALP?
Nope.
What pathetic hypocrisy.
Well in two weeks time some of us will wake up happy and some with a sinking filling. Many of us, regardless of political persuasion will wake up with a hangover.
I agree with what the consensus was on the Insiders: it’s only now that people (aside from us tragics) are really starting to pay attention to the election. I wonder whether the focus on the economy over the last week was poorly timed for the Coalition, the campaign launches may swing the debate back to other issues. My other question is I wonder what is in the Tele Bennelong poll and will this swamp tomorrows Liberal campaign launch?
Interesting to see the Liberals switching to targetted seat advertising: ‘everyone for themselves’ or a clever seat-by-seat bit of trench warfare? I’m amused that it takes the new ALP ads to remind everyone who leads the party that Liberal candidates represent, as the candidates don’t seem keen to remind voters in their ads.
And $500,000 for orang-utans! Interviews with the target constituency clearly show that this is a plus for the Government:
http://pizdaus.com/pics/VReArDcLTeQ3.jpg
Tim Gartrell? You mean the mastermind of the 2004 debacle is still there?
Geezuz.
Isabella – its a small drop in the ocean compared to the huge media bias toward the Coalition generally.
Isabella, if you bothered reading what I wrote you would see that I was not crticising Piers for being a Liberal mouthpiece; I was crticising him for not being able to carry an argument, understanding what he was saying, and being entertaining.
David Marr does not have any of those problems and therefore deserves to be on the show.
Obviously you have similar mental limitations to your buddy Jabba there.
DAivd Marr is annoying but Piers the Hutt is in a pathetic league of his own. At least Marr echoes public opinion. Jabba the Ackerman echos HR Nichols.
Isabella, what is pathetic is you jump straight to attacking the posters on this blog.
Classic Piers, “there is no housing affordability crisis”
Why oh why do we get him or Bolt, they are nothing but Tory loonies. And yes, Lenore is brilliant. George Megalogenis also good value, we need some objective panellists on this debate.
Also loved the highlighting of the ‘roads, rates and rubbish’ approach now being taken. Time to expose these frauds. These are local gov and state gov responsibilities. Unless of course they are talking about rodent plot to have nuclear waste dumps in Oz, which of course is why they built the Alice Darwin rail. Or the road to hell they plan for the workers under serf-choices perhaps.
cenatur at 43: “Who are these knobbs on insiders..?”
Just the usual bunch of conservative lotus eaters carping-on with insightful stuff like this:
David: “Although Labor is ahead now, there’s still 2 weeks to go and people don’t really wake-up and pay attention until the second last week of a campaign, don’t you agree Piers?”
Piers: “Oh yes, I have to agree with you there, David. I don’t think people have tuned-in to the election yet.”
Nauseating.
Worse still, irrelevant.
There’s also an air of unreality about it all. They sit there in their sequestered little set and spout this stuff, week after week, steadfastly ignoring what the polling has universally been saying for the last 9 months and running their own inane little narratives, none of which are going to have any impact or traction.
They’re like a Tory version of Big Brother, except that we don’t get the option of voting the wankers off the show.
Outside (if you look) you can just make out the top of the approaching Electoral Tsunami as it rushes over the horizon toward the set.
@85 Isabella
Put it this way.
No.
Apologies there were a couple of typos, the worst is ‘are’ instead of ‘our’ in ‘if our fears are realised’.
Are organg-utans represented in marginal seats?
I’m all for protecting endangered animals, but a bizarre announcement from the Rodent.
‘Serf choices’ –
brilliant.
Why do people like Piers Wackerman have any credibility at all. There is no evidence, no support, its just a spewing of the way he would like to see the world. Let me see, we don’t want to face reality so we deny it, its just to much. He was unbelievable this morning, can anyone remember a Journo ever being so Rabidly Left-wing?
If politicians were so comprehensively wrong on so many issues they would be slammed by these jokers, but it seems to be a trait of these ‘oppinion’ writers.
For instance, how does Bolt continue to draw a salary when he has been so totally discredited as a Global Warming Sceptic.
It is Bizzare……..
That orangutan utube ad with Howard was the most bizarre thing that I have ever seen that is not supposed to be comedy satire. That image of Howard pushing the kid in the wheelchair was UNBELIEVABLE.
It was PURE SKETCH COMEDY OF THE HIGHTEST ORDER.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear!
HOW SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD!
Actually it was pure South Park.
Timmmmmy! Jimmmmy?
Can’t wait to watch Insiders (I’m over here in Perth – 30 mins to go!) What in the hell does Ackerman do to justify his continuing employment? I mean, even the Bolter occasionally adopts a sensible compassionate position on issues (cf. Sudanese immigrants) all that fat fraud does is parrot Liberal PR releases or spread looney tunes conspiracy theories. Lets hope Madam Lash gets thrown off the ABC Board after the Ruddslide, maybe we’ll then see some balance
The only way that the Coalition can get back in the race from here is if the major focus of the campaign shifts to Kevin Rudd – who is he, what does he really stand for? In other words, try to challenge the basic assumptions built into the decisions made by hundreds of thousands of voters to shift to Rudd.
The problem for the Coalition is that this will be nigh on impossible to achieve given that Labor is about to turn up the heat on the whole question of Howard’s looming retirement and the handover to Costello.
This sums up the enormity of the Coalition issue: In a contest that is about leaders more than anything else Rudd can never be the issue when the Coalition leadership outlook is so messy.
Piers makes even Andrew Bolt look reasonable by comparison. Bolt sometimes criticises the Gov’t over individual issues and acknowledges that they’re going to lose. Piers lives in a parallel universe where, if Howard was caught sacrificing babies to Baal, a justification could be spun.
Taronga Zoo is in the seat of North Sydney. Maybe the Rodent is trying to help out lard arse Hockey?
The Liberals have reached a low ebb when they are shamelessly exploiting a 10 year old boy with cerebal palsey.
Is ‘Insiders’ repeated or ’streamed’ from anywhere?
Hey folks, care to join my ‘enlightening Insiders of the worthlessness of Piers’ campaign? Drop them a quick note here to immeasurably improve the show: http://abc.com.au/insiders/contact.htm
What is this thing with Howard and soft toys in this election? Is he regressing?
Insiders is repeated on news radio at 11am.
@106 Pancho
No Everytime someone with half a brain tunes in and just sees Ackerman Labor’s primary vote goes up %10. When Ackerman flatulates throuh his mouth, Labors primary vote goes up 70%.
That’s not me talking thats science.
I have sent a complaint to the ABC this morning about the Insiders panel.
There is no point having Ackerman on there. He offers nothing in insightful commentary and simply parrots the government line. David Marr isn’t much better, he always says the opposite.
Can I suggest that everyone fires off a complaint to the ABC about the panel make-up, and requesting some more impartial commentators (such as Lenore Taylor)?
Here’s mine:
You can submit your comments at the following link:
http://abc.net.au/insiders/contact.htm
Over on the ABC website there is a vote on SerfChoices – Is it a shambles?
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/poll/vote/default.htm
Andrew Bolt is loony as well. His reason why the Iraq war has not been given a run this election campaign is that the war has been won by the ‘coalition’ and Iraqis are now in control of their country.
Akers and Bolt – from another planet, but I know not which one.
I cant find a link to John the Orangutan anyone got it? Quick cause its Bound to be pulled very soon once they realise the enormity of their miscalcuation, Ive got to downlaod it before then….
Interesting article by Jason Koutsoukis in the Sunday Age, about the desperate measures taken by the Lib campaign director to deflect attention from Howard’s appalling ’sorry’ performance. Only thing he’s wrong about is Michael Kroger:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/jason-koutsoukis/2007/11/10/1194329566789.html
Isabella – David marr is a recognised gay, leftie so it wouldn’t be surprising if he supported ALP policy. He is an accomplished author who has highlighted some of more disgraceful behaviour of the Howard government.
@112
Uranus. Or should I say Theiranus
Howard and the orangutans have two things in common: they are both endangered species, and both of their habitats are being destroyed.
I’m happy to help save those adorable monkeys, but my sympathy doesn’t extend to one hasbeen Rodent and his bitch of a wife.
Sure Bolt is looney. But he doesn’t always sound like a government mouthpiece.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ev6zrVV_UQ
this is the orang-utan clip
Ashley @ 110
I understand that Matt Price is unwell and on leave, once again an excellent commentator, hope he is on the road to recovery.
I think orangutan ad has been pulled already cant find it.
I loved Piers line that Latham was like an idiot savant, he had some brilliant areas despite the rest. The rejoinder from Lenore-yeah the ideas you agree with. He is a fat moron. PS Why are so many Howard Huggers in the media morbidly obese-Akerman, Shanahan, Milne, Kelly?
Howard has an affinity for the Great Apes:
http://www.geetan.com/images/content/bush_monkey.jpg
THANK YOU RGEEE
the best mouthpieces cover themselves in a cloak of independance and individualism.
diogene, yeah that was the funniest thing I’ve ever heard Piers say.
No, it is still there, just had a look. Poor bloody kid, enough to give him nightmares and flashbacks for the rest of his life having a giant rat burst in like that
Labor will be lucky to win any new seats in SA if the Murdoch press continues in the vein of today’s Sunday Mail.
1. The front page splash is the old beat-up about how Julia Gillard’s former lover defrauded the AWU. The scam is explained at length on Page 4 with lots of innuendo.
2. Page 5 leads with “Doubt over Rudd as PM” – a Galaxy focus group’s finding in Kingston. Reports from a more favourable focus group in Makin are buried low in the story. Makin Lib candidate Bob Day is pictured shaking the hand of a supporter.
3. Nick Xenophon is derided on Page 7 for his alleged lack of action in trying to save the Murray. (Also on Page 7, Kevin Rudd warns of new IR plan and is pictured with supporters. This is the only positive thing for Labor in the paper).
4. An extraordinary editorial occupies Page 41 – “Why Mr X does not deserve your vote”. Obviously Rupert doesn’t want the Coalition to lose its grip on the Senate.
5. Glenn Milne on Page 42 tells “Why Rudd is engaged in a giant ruse”.
6. Piers Ackermann on Page 43 invokes Mark Latham and ‘exposes’ how Rudd’s using “phony crises … to scare votes from punters”. With old pic of Rudd and atham.
Almost wall-to-wall sleaze and smear.
1
I would urge all ALP supporters to attend their local Walk against Warming rally today.
Its a topic that the ALP owns, and numbers will make the difference in terms of media coverage.
Plus its a damn good cause.
http://www.walkagainstwarming.org/
Howard looks like a dirty old man in that youtube ad. He’s all over that kid! Someone call DoCS.
William, what have you done with Kevin Andrews? The link to Menzies doesn’t work. Mind you no need to hurry in finding him.
If the “orangutan kid vid” doesn’t cut through, the next step might be a story with a sombre Howard peering in to the camera saying “Today, I lost a good mate”.
While we are on youtube, check out this one,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
hilarious.
Misogynist woman haters for Labor
Because woman should know her place
How thick are some people?
The programme from day one has had a left-winger, an ‘independent’ and a mainstream media representative. Quite rightly it makes the programme more entertaining and interesting than three left-winger bed wetters carrying on about rubbish like the Tampa for the millionith time.
So today:
David Marr was on the crappy show because he is the token left-wing journo.
Piers was on the show because he is the token mainstream journalist.
Lenore Taylor was on the show because she is meant to be the token ‘independent.’ Which is in fact a usual ABC furphy as Taylor is as independent as its former ALP Press Secretary broken down host B. Cassidy.
Get over it. Mainstream Australia tolerates the mincing, sanctimonious twaddle, bitchiness and bias of David Marr. Put up with Piers or turn on Video Hits.
Ackerman? Mainstream? Am I missing something?
God the Samantha Maiden piece boiled my blood. How dare she slag us all off as a bunch of Labor-loving pessimists…she’s analysed a Poll Bludger comments thread in exactly the same way the GG “analyses” the newspolls themselves: find a tiny little bit of hope for the govt. (in this case a couple of nervous commenters) in amongst hundreds of other indicators which all point to an ALP landslide. Suddenly, we, apparently a cohesive community, are collectively “calling a comeback for the government”. I’m really hope someone labours the point with the Murdoch press in the weeks after the election when Labor wins between 85 and 95 seats, they are proven completely and utterly wrong, and the Neilsen polls, the ABC with Antony, William, Simon J and Possum will have all got it roughly right.
I don’t want Piers or Marr. I want non-partisan commentary.
Desperately seeking attention Tabitha
Who was the deputy L/NP Women,
Isabella: do you fantasise about a roll in the hay with Piers and Glen Milne?
Isabella reckons Peirs is mainstream…..
The Galaxy research group cracked me up.
There were seven in the Kingston Group of which 5 said they would support the libs.
Of those 5, they quote a 59 year old who is clearly in Howards demographic. A 49 year old, who is bordering on that demographic. A 32 year old nurse who identifies herself as being conservative by nature.
In the Makin group they quote a 59 year old retiree and a 51 year old who says he has always voted liberal. Yet the article says that the survey was of swinging voters.
So the “swinging voters” survey was stacking with Howards demographic, including many rusted on supporters.
The lies just continue!
A KEY minister has dismissed as a Labor lie claims the Howard government didn’t win a mandate for its industrial relations (IR) reforms at the last election.
Finance Minister Nick Minchin today said the government had set out its plans before the last election for labour reforms including abolition of unfair dismissal laws.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22739263-5001028,00.html
#128 Murdoch may have to face his own impotence this election. None of that will make the slightest difference in SA.
My guess is new lts will get wind of their newfound irrelevance before the 24th, and change sides to cover their arses, and muddy the waters.
I think we know what to expect from the Murdoch press for the next 2 weeks.
Why on earth did I ever think Rupert might give Rudd his support?
Ashley
yeah I thought it looked like a P priming video……
I want to know what Isabella and Tabitha think about being called “Labor loving pessimists”. Samantha Maiden said it, so it must be true.
Women like Tabitha (hating their lives and themselves) drag the rest of us down and belong in the Liberal party.
Strong independent women like me who don’t depend on men to define us are Labor ‘can do’ chicks.
That’s basically it, the bitterness of Tab and Isabella is mainly directed at themselves, though they’ll never have the self esteem to be able to realise that.
Phil @ 128
“2. Page 5 leads with “Doubt over Rudd as PM” – a Galaxy focus group’s finding in Kingston. Reports from a more favourable focus group in Makin are buried low in the story. Makin Lib candidate Bob Day is pictured shaking the hand of a supporter.”
This headline is based on the outcome of a focus group of 7 people in Makin & 7 in Kingston – hardly a reasonable sample & clearly out of line with the results of the polls with much larger sample sizes.
Is this blatant political bias or just incompetent journalism? Either way, this type of headline should not be published.
Anyone in SA should write to the editor demanding better.
@128 Phi Robbins
That’s disgusting.
Rupert is at it in NSW as well. Every political article was anti-Labor or pro-Liberal today. Steve Price got into the act as well just to prove how “objective” his Garrett gaffe effort was. Pure piffal.
Maybe we should close down these sites, if the Tories ever got the idea that you should base decisions on objective, scientific data, and try not to let your own bias and wants cloud your judgement, they may get back into Government before the next 4 term cycle.
F*** you’re funny Isabella. Piers Akerman – mainstream journalist. Made my day!!!! LOLOLOLOL.
Isabella, Piers is more biased than Marr. Marr has been known to criticise Rudd and Labor. Piers has never criticised anything that Howard has ever done, ever. Moreover he twists every single point to try and turn it into a positive for Howard. This morning it was agreeing with the comments of Latham to suit the purposes of an attack on Rudd.
P.S. he is a fat selfish pig – he is the idiot savant, only without the occasional brilliance.
Yeah right Jai-mei.
The Liberal Party sees talented women promoted on the basis of merit.
The Labor Party promotes women through quotas and strong-arm tactics from the laughable Emily’s List and Australia’s most incompetent premier ever Joan Kirner.
Every woman who wins preselection wins on a level playing field, on the basis of merit.
Liberals – Julie Bishop, Helen Coonan, Sophie Mirabella, Connie Fierravanti-Wells, etc.
Labor – Sharon Grierson, Nicole Cornes, Kelly Hoare, Julie Owens, etc.
Labor women rely upon the men to change their Party rules and give them a seat in Parliament – when it suits them.
Go back to your quotas Jai-Mei – you’re probably so incompetent, so useless and so clueless you’ll need it.
You know, in China, one of the reformists came up with this idea to mimic press freedom: papers may criticise govt policy, as long as they do so no more than 20% of the time. The other 80% must be fawning and appreciative of the politburo’s wisdom.
Im starting to wonder whether the Chinese press isnt more independent of government than News Ltd.
I’m not sure why I’m biting, but anyway…
Isabella, the problem is not with having a rightist analyst on the show. This adds confrontation and makes for interesting viewing. Personally I have no problem with any of the right figures and quite enjoy the Bolter’s devils advocacy on there, particularly of late.
The problem with Piers is that he is out of his depth, intellectually. When questioned by Taylor this morning on a host of positions at one time his response was ‘well thats what I think’. This isn’t highschool, I don’t really want to know what Piers just thinks without him being able to back it up. Add to this his ‘those women’ comments, trying to use Latham as a credible witness for his arguments (and I could go on) is just annoying. He is unable to move with the sweep of any arguments, and so tries to obfuscate.
I have no problem with the general structure of the panels Insiders has, but I just think that Piers aint up to the task.
Basil Fawlty
Matt Price is fighting for his life at the moment and I, like many are worried and wishing the best for him.
Caroline from the Oz informed me last week.
I miss his blog.
Is that mainstream as in sewer?
Just a note re this morning’s ‘Insiders’. The vox pop segment purported to show three male stable hands at Flemington racecourse. The guy on the left was none other than trainer Mark Kavanagh. While eagerly pushing the Howard/Costello barrow, he referred to the amount of champagne drunk during the Melbourne carnival, some of it do doubt by him and his owners.
Kavanagh’s Melbourne spring horses included Devil Moon, Lady Madonna and Maldivian. Mixed fortunes with Maldivian but great results with the two mares.
I would not have thought it wise for Kavanagh to project such a partisan tory viewpoint. He may, wrongly, think that all owners of ‘good’ horses vote Liberal!
Thanks Scaper, that is what I understood, a good journo and I am sure we all hope for his speedy recovery.
Such vitriol Isabella! Just a tip: I’m not sure that personal insults hurled across the net to people you don’t know is strengthening your arguments.
Phil,
I get the Sunday Mail delivered but if this is what they are going to produce next week as well, well they can shove it up their #@!K and I will go and get the Sunday Age instead.
Absolutely, disgraceful.
And since when has a focus group of 7 been a representative sample. I can only hope that the ALP is elected in a landslide and then they can together with assistance of the minor parties give payback in spades.
What has our media become?
On another topic, went and saw Lions for Lambs yesterday – good film.
@154 Sammuel
I believe the term you searching for is one I coined myself
‘Idiot sans savant’
I think you.
Oh Isabella, get over it. So Julie Bishop’s relationship with Senator Ross Lightfoot had nothing to do with her getting preselection?
I just love the Liberal’s selective presentation of the facts. Yes, trot out the ‘independent’ woment to show you’re a party of opportunity.
Put your Liberal talking points elsewhere sweetheart.
62 sondeo Thats not spin it’s propaganda!
errrr
I thank you.
#160
Maybe they should have spoken to horse trainers from NSW?
Latham on Piers from hansard.
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/view_document.aspx?id=2188481&table=HANSARDR
Scaper…. Caroline informed us all (i.e. it was in her blog).
Isabella @ 155 says “The Liberal Party sees talented women promoted on the basis of merit.”
Yep, even the deliberately barren ones …
85
Isabella Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 10:23 am
And does anyone here complain about David Marr’s blatant cheering and propaganda for the ALP?
Nope.
Well, Isabella, let me help you since you’ve seen fit to throw out an accusation with backing it up with specifics.
It’s not about which side of politics they support, but about the soundness of their arguments. David Marr too often can’t contain expressing his contempt for Piers through facial expressions, laughter and sarcasm. This only enables Piers to further indulge in absurdities like, “Rudd’s campaign is completely hollow.” Lenore Taylor repeatedly nailed Piers’ nonsensical comments through specific rebuttals backed up by relevant, valid evidence.
David Marr does not seem to put in as much hard yakka as one saw on “Media Watch” (the program’s staff must have done most of it), which undermines his effectiveness on the “Offsiders”, so I would place him on a par with Bolters for putting forward compelling viewpoints. Nevertheless, both Marr and Bolt avoid indulging in the sort of wildly spurious remarks which Piers grinds out like putrid sausages. Compared to Piers, even Milne is a paragon of credible argument.
Favourite Insiders Moments:
George M in around Sept 2006: I think the australian public may be about to turn their attention to the opposition and consider what they have to offer, they may stop listening to the government. (or words to that effect)
a remark that was loudly derided by Bolt at the time as absurd, (prosperity, record this lowest that, PMs approval ratings etc). Even Barrie suggested it was “a big call”.
David Marr to Piers Ackerman: leaning forward with palms open “Piers, why do you want to waste everyone’s time?”
Insiders generally spews forth the latest accepted version of the official public narrative, (anything Paul Kelly wants to say), but the George M remark and other gems show the capacity of some panelists to cut through the guff.
Isabella @ 155: an intriguing list of super competent Lib women. Clearly you apply unique criteria to your definition of such a category. Julie Bishop has probably been the wroist education minister in at least a decade; Helen Coonan has absolutely no idea about her portfolio and seems to be mostly concerned with handing out vast funds to SingTel; Sophie Mirabella is an apprentice attack dog, and intemperate to boot; and ‘Connie’ Fierravanti-Wells is motivated by a paranoid hatred of the ABC which does not augur well for her mental health. In my humble opinion. And please, if you dislike us all so much, could you just nick off?
Ta.
Don’t worry Scribe, trainers like Kavanagh are scared sh*t that if Labor wins they might have to pay their stable hands something that may even resemble a decent wage.
We had another reminder of the determined bias that David Marr puts out, this time on the apology question again.
Just minutes before Lenore T had given quite a good analogy of the two uses of the word “sorry”, using a tale of the dog next door that had been run over.
Minutes later, David Marr is trying to say Howard is the only person to have come up with that distinction, no proper thinking person would make that distinction etc etc.
I should listen to Lenore more often
Has anyone here had a look at the seat of Ryan in Brisbane, 10% margin to Libs but has swung before at a by-election from memory. Sportingbet has Labor at $3.05, might get me some of that methinks!
Isabella, You say that Coonan and Bishop were promoted on merit! Two more profoundly incompetent ministers have never existed. If they are the best the Libs can do, it is obvious why the Coalition are doomed.
Sophie Mirabella and Connie Fierravanti-Wells, what pathetic excuses for human beings. Bigoted, far right wing shrews. After the election they will be promoted too, no doubt. Their more obvious presence will just make the Coalition even more unelectable. Eleven long years of appalling waste of Australia’s potential are about to finish. The coalition will be a rump and the Libs that are left will be dominated by the far right wing trash, like Alex Hawke, and your favourite ladies. No recipe for a comeback there. They can’t think straight, and their inflexibility and complete lack of empathy with normal human beings will see the Federal Liberal Party sink to the pathetic level of the state NSW and Queensland branches.
You and Piers deserve each other.
cheers,
Alan H
Rx, worked for me with firefox.
You really have to give the News Ltd journos credit!
They may all be a pack of morons with no sense of reality and very little knowledge in economics or politics, but they are all OLYMPIC WORLD CLASS ARS LICKERS.
I wonder which one would win the gold medal?
179 Rx, Mine did not work either, suspect Madam Lash has been down to ABC HQ perhaps?
You could also use the form at — they will forward it on I think
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/abctv/contact.htm
Anyway, I was interested in the economic stuff Swan got onto this morning, particulary thre important argument about wages and productivity.
the colaition takes the view (as Howard and Costello have indeed clearly expressed from time to time) that productivity is somehow boosted by reducing the share of one factor of production (labour) while maintaining constant output. In other words, cutting wages.
However, the problem we have at the moment is that inflation is rising largely because our capacity to produce is constrained by limited capacity. We can reduce inflationary by reducing aggregate demand via fiscal retrenchment and wage deregulation, or we can increase productivity and thus improve capacity. The former implies that people at the bottom of the skills pile will do quite badly but doesn’t guarantee that wages (in the aggregate) will be restrained – people with skills in demand will be able to demand whatever price they like.
Productivity improvements, on the other hand, particulary if they involve infrastructure investment (broadband, railways, etc) and eduication and re-training will increase the economy’s capacity to reduce inflationary pressure w/out requiring that the low skilled get screwed.
This is the Labor message. Simple really. Swan I think actually gets this but it propbably needs to be spelt out to folk like B. Cassidy et al, so that they may utilise their unique skills as communicators and transmit the message to the people. Am not holding breath waiting for this to occur.
Ashley, I have tried with Firefox and Internet Explorer. Same error message in both. Will empty caches and try again later.
A personal highlight of the election campaign so far has become Miranda Devine’s interview with John and Janette (Sun Herald, Nov 11). Janette and John can both reassure us that Rudd knows nothing about economics. here’s the punchy par from a deep question from the incisive Miranda….”One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard, in an interview at Kirribilli House on Friday, alongside her husband of 37 years.
“No, he knows nothing about economics,” said Mr Howard. “He’s very uncomfortable whenever he gets questioned about economics, going back to the famous [June] interview with [ABC Radio's] Chris Uhlmann about productivity.
No follow up question about their proof for this statement.
How about this… read it and understand why Devine gets the access to the Pm and Janette that she does. They know she will toe the line. Butt Monkey is what the American’s call it I think.
[But] far and away the best campaigner I’ve ever faced was Hawke, who was highly intelligent; a far more intelligent man, in my opinion, than [Paul] Keating.”
The Prime Minister was speaking after a lunchtime outing to Penrith Plaza, in the marginal western suburbs seat of Lindsay, the heart of Howard battler territory.
Walking through shopping malls, trying to make friends, might not be everyone’s cup of tea but, for Mr and Mrs Howard, it’s a highlight of the election campaign, giving them the pulse of the electorate, outside polls that stubbornly point Labor’s way.
“We quite enjoy going through shopping centres,” Mr Howard said.
“People are nice,” Mrs Howard said, sitting beside him in their harbourside living room.
“Yes, people are nice,” he said. “You just meet such an extraordinary range and you can get a sense of what is the mood of people.”
Blah Blah Blah its hysterical The Chaser couldn’t have done it better.
People are nice yes people are nice.
Just one final point…”their harbourside living room”. ???/ Tha’ts our harbourside living room which Howard misappropriated from us. We should all be there on November 25 with the moving vans to make sure he doesn’t stay a minute longer.
RGee at post 119, many thanks for the Orang-Utan clip, it was bloody hilarious.
I think the election has just entered the Twilight Zone, folks: Howard is now throwing pork at monkeys.
It’s bizarre.
The guys in the white coats with the medications can’t be too far away now.
They should have used the old Tom Lehrer song “They’re Coming To Take Me Away, Ha Ha” as a musical background to the clip IMHO.
BB @170, lol.
But EVERYTHING is secretly centralised around scaper, didn’t you know
it’s all “project business”
Gillard will be PM one day
Choke on that, you know who you are.
Piers is going to be up the creek if the ALP win after what he pulled on Rudd a few weeks back.
It’s not surprising, therefore, to see him gunning hard at this point in the campaign. He has everything to lose.
Hyacinth will certainly be dragged out on the 25th kicking and screaming, HH. Kirrbilli Removals will be there, and it won’t be pretty.
Just watch her taping prawn heads to all the desks, leaving the water running and other assorted tricks as she leaves. She wont be going quietly.
I just pity the residents of Wollstonecraft — “there goes the neighbourhood”…
Just listening to Insiders on News Radio. Lenore Taylor and David Marr have strong views but occasionally surrender a point or two, but Piers on the other hand wants to win every single argument. He doesn’t give on any subject no matter how illogical his view. That’s what makes him a bad journalist, his inability to give in to logic and fairness on even the smallest point.
Ah, the generic contact form (183) appears to accept the message. Thanks Ashley.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/abctv/contact.htm
Basil, would not surprise me if Madamme Lash is indeed cracking the whip round the Insiders office.
“A KEY minister has dismissed as a Labor lie claims the Howard government didn’t win a mandate for its industrial relations (IR) reforms at the last election.
Finance Minister Nick Minchin today said the government had set out its plans before the last election for labour reforms including abolition of unfair dismissal laws.”
I don’t think that will play…. It’s a bit “oh, didn’t you read the fine print?”
So when do the Howards need to get out of Kirribilli House, assuming a loss? Is there a precedent here? How long will they be given?
Heckle me all you like as it is expected in this and my skin is thick….not my head.
Have a good day all.
Looks like being a torrid two weeks, with the Murdoch press once again barracking heavily for the conservatives. No doubt there will be editorials in every Murdoch paper the day before the election,as usual, explaining why voters should vote for the retiree rather than Kevin Rudd.
Once again it will have zero effect on voters’ intentions just as it did in the last NSW state election.
It might just do Murdoch’s interests in Australia some damage, however, as they will find Kevin Rudd no pushover after the election.
He will be exceedingly tough.
The biggest negative for the Coalition is John Howard himself and that’s why he will be targetted in the last two weeks.
Why would Australians vote for someone who is about to retire?
It makes no sense.
They can’t be sure either that Peter Costello would take over. It could well be the egregious Tony Abbott. Who really knows?
Just who would be Treasurer? If Peter Costello were indeed to PM it wouldn’t be him.
Australians are being asked to vote for a pig in a poke.
Add the WorkChoice fiasco, no action on global warming, squandered surpluses and so on to the equation and clearly the electorate would be sensible to vote for a new team to clear up the mess and provide ongoing, not temporary, leadership for the country.
Right wing commentators fearful of losing their power base can froth at the mouth all they like but it will have no effect on Australian voters.
Well Insiders was the usual shite. Why do they bother with Marr and P.ackerman? Both are fighting old fights.
Piers and his bloody “centralised wage fixing”! You d*ckhead, the ALP got rid of it, why would they bring it back? As they would say in the arny, he’s a waste of rations.
And Marr, well I agree with a lot of what he says, but there’s little point to his being there. He hates Howard so much, they should wait till Howard is gone before inviting him back.
But, oh Lenore…
@195 Pancho
Well the bunker will be cleared out by the russians but before that Abbot and Dwoner have orders to take the Howards out into a shallow pit in their backyard and set them on fire……….then give them cianide.
Exactement, paul k.
Hey Pancho, local authorities are pretty tough on rodent infestations, suspect not long.
I stopped buying newspapers from one particular organisation ages ago. The journalism is poor, misleading and factually wrong. You do your money, it gives you the sh*ts and you get your hands dirty from turning the pages.
Newspapers as oppossed to the net is a bit like the Dessicated Coconut and Rudd, OUT WITH THE OLD AND IN WITH THE NEW!
“Piers is going to be up the creek if the ALP win after what he pulled on Rudd a few weeks back”
Piers is going to be fine, so will be Bolt and all the others. When Rupert departs the mortal coil and News is carved up and the Australian newspapers have a new owner is the only chance of real change in these newspapers.
So scaper any update on your teaser post from yesterday?
Its a bit silly the clamis on here that the media is on Howards side. From what I can see the ABC, Channel seven, Channel nine, channel 10, The Age, SMH all favour the Wax Farmer. But you lot complain that the murdoch newspapers are barracking for Howard. They seem to be fairly balanced if you ask me.
Using the generic contact form you can put in the name of the program, and you
can tick the box to request a response.
Love the headlines on the Tel and Sunday Mails around the country. “Julia’s Broken Heart”
It may have been an attempt at smear, but it has been spun in the headlines like she is Lizzy Bennett getting taken in by George Wickham.
Pure gold. I’m thinking 90 seats if the Libs keep helping out the ALP this way.
This looks like another Site to watch on election day
http://orgburo.com/elections/electionnight.php?select=Bennelong
For info on the site checkout
http://ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1667
Howard is worried about the Orang Utans in Indonesia, yet Australia has the worst mammal extinction record in the world:
http://www.awc.org.au/wildlifeextinctioncrisis2.asp
Rudd should try and keep the focus of the last few weeks on issues such as conservation by applauding Howard’s initiative and by agreeing to increase the funds by the same amount to target those species threatened in Australia.
Grog, is that a crush for Lenore that I detect?
Is it just me, or is the tone and nature of this forum going down hill?
i was a bit distracted this morning but did Paul Kelly actually give a nod of approval to Rudd in his intro piece for the “Insiders”?
Isabella,
Dana Vale was promoted – for a short time only – and she clearly isn’t talented, in fact she’s a knob.
The Liberal Party is beholden to its various factions, most notably the far-right ratbag Christian faction.
I love that our national broadcaster stops for two minutes on this day of remembrance. and the last post to end it. lest we forget.
No, I think this article by a cadet called Sharri Markson – who has in the past used fraud and misrepresentation to get access to her subjects who lay injured in hospital see http://www.theage.com.au/news/creative–media/media-soiled-in-london-terror-trickery/2005/07/17/1121538866727.html
- takes the cake for the sleaziest peace of the year.
Sharri’s piece in the Sunday Telecrap about Mark Latham is vomit inducing. Sharri specialises in invading people’s privacy, going through garbage bins and and hanging around people’s homes with binoculars.
Among other discoveries she makes is that Mark Latham paid $540,000 for what he calls an exclusive mansion with wraparound windows.
She also noticed from a distance through electric gates that he wore a towel in Wests Tigers colours on the way to his own swimming pool.
“The long drive is guarded by iron gates, an electric fence and an intercom to keep out unwanted visitors,” she tells us breathlessly in her scoop.
No wonder, with vermin like her hanging around the place. If it were me I would also have a shottie handy.
Check it out shootin’ viewers:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22737893-5006009,00.html
I’ve nutted the Piers Wackerman thing, Rupert like his Journos to write to about year 10 level, you know, lack of logic, I recon, I heard down at the corner, stuff, . So he gets people who naturally reflect this.
Clearly we are getting bored, so a little story.
Two millionaire Liberal voters are in the backroom of the Melbourne club, one turns to the other one and says, Charles old chap, when through all the struggle of business did you realise that you had turned the corner and made it?
To which Charles repied, “Well James old chum, its was during vacation from the old Grammer school, Daddy took me to the factory and said, Charles my boy, one day this will be all yours!
Re the Flemington Vox Pop on Insiders, Red Wombat at post 168 says: “Maybe they should have spoken to horse trainers from NSW..”
I reckon they should have spoken to the horses.
Any answers obtained would sure as hell have made more sense than what fell from the horses’ a*ses they did interview.
Unusually for me, can I try to introduce a pseph-related topic? We hear a lot about swings for parties. We also a lot about individual candidates merits. I was under the impression that a sitting member who was well-liked and worked hard in their electorate could only hold out 3% maximum against a swing. This would give Turnbull, Pyne etc a lot of problems. Do the candidates really matter that much?
Returning to a topic of yesterday for a moment about Labor’s seemingly long-delayed attack (and defence-to-Libs’-attack) advertising onslaught.
I’ve seen a few reports now that Labor has cracked up the warchest and is now spending up big, but in specific seats (eg Cowan, as per AFR report; and Eden-Monaro, as per somebody’s observation here yesterday).
Do other people have similar observations from their seats? Could it be that Labor’s TVCs are highly localised and targeted? Or (since I do not have a telly) has Labor now begun its blitz across Sydney and Melbourne metro.
Also nice to see the ACTU has apparently begun a blitz of its own.
OK, For Balance,
Two socialist, Bert and Harold.
Bert, “Harold, if you had two houses what would you do?
H, “Bert, I’d keep one and give the other to the poor”
B, “What if you had two cars?
H, “keep one and give one to the Poor!”
B, “Two chooks?”
H, “I’d keep both!”
B, “Why”
H, “I’ve got two chooks”
who’s NRM research? I just got polled.
Nationalist Rights Movement, a front for the Liberal Party? [joke]
That’s a real knee slapper FtP
Usual questions, but before they asked for voting intention they asked heading in the right direction.
Thank you ruawake #169.
That was GOLD. I didn’t know Piers was an ex cocaine addict. Latham may not have been loved but he knew how to ‘thrust’ a knife!
Podcast of today’s Insiders: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r199061_760095.mp3
What was so delicious about Leonore Taylor skewering Piers’ bloated hyperbole this morning was the quiet, calm wryness she employed. With very few words, she politely demonstrated that he’s an insufferable and hypocritical bore.
Love your work, Leonore!
Roy Morgan?
yeah, it could be actually… N (dont’ know) Roy Morgan… NRM.
Sounds like Lib party internal polling to me. Morgan does f2f at weekends, not phone.
I see I got quoted by Samantha Maiden…. not sure whether to feel honoured or scared!
ruawake @ 169
Thanks for the Latham Hansard reference – a great read.
They had a really dodgy interest rate question, “do you agree or disagree that in uncertain times, with financial instability, that it is to risky for labor to manage interest rates into the future?”, or something similiar to that anyway.
RE insiders
I think it is good that they have the right-wing cheer squad on Insider’s panel. These guys always make fools of themselves on national TV and thus they do their cause no good at all. As long as we have likes of Lenore and Barry to expose them for what they are, I have no problem with the ‘balance’ approach.
Blackbird – it sounds more like internal polling to me.
Interesting point about WorkChoices and the 2004 election.
Yesterday, someone showed me a Courier Mail article outlining all the key Coalition policies released during the 2004 election campaign. It was sort of a ‘wrap up for the last week’ sort of thing.
Any mention of the policies vis a vis Workchoices, I hear you ask?
No. None. Zip. Nada. Nil. Nothing. It is totally silent.
66 Diogenes
Thanks for pointing out the editorial in Sunday Mail. I never read SM- but this was brilliant and spot-on!
Janette loves the odd execution
For crimes that deserve retribution.
When she’s forced to retreat
From Kirribilli post-defeat
They’ll find a dead rodent: electrocution.
I suspect that it is far more likely in general to be polled by an internal party pollster than it is by a public pollster. Internal party polls run everyday from both sides in marginal seats.
Meet The Press, Channel Ten, 12 August 2007
legacy.ten.com.au/library/documents/MTP1208.doc
Oh. My. God.
I am still wiping the tears from my cheeks after watching that Oranguatang clip posted earlier (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ev6zrVV_UQ). It was high camp of the highest order.
It was meant to show him as warm and compassionate but the overall impression was of a slightly conflicted sex offender! Rodent could barely move he was so uncomfortable. That tragically forced grin, the too-large, too-formal suit, and the awkward, minder-induced body contact. Disingenuous much???What a cold, hard, WASPy puritan he is.
But best of all was the cheesy, mawkish, overcooked, dated Family Ties/Diff’rent Strokes narrative that the entire episode was written around. For make no mistake, this whole thing was a confected, scripted, campaign set piece that was directed like a piece of cinema. Howard making a special one-on-one visit to Little Timmy with a Terrible Illness, who has one single wish to create a better world…….for orangutans. Convenes special Cabinet Meeting to grant Timmy’s one wish. Gives him a hug (cue live studio audience going “ooohhhhhhhh”). High fives the neighbourhood children. Voiceover mentions that Timmy is Terribly Ill but has a Bright Future Ahead of Him. Just Like The Orangutans.
219 Betamax No the ALP has not started its advertising blitz. I have had the cricket on all morning. Not one political ad in Melbourne. What’s wrong with them don’t they want to win? I will be having a lot to say tomorrow.
I can just imagine the instructions to Howard.
‘now sir, when you go inside, dont shake hands with the boy – give him a big hug’……….
It’s all too funny.
On the Diff’rent Strokes, theme Betamax, I wonder if Costello upon hearing Howard’s orangutang proposal said: “Wachoo talkin’ about Howard?”
I taped the Sunday program while watching Insiders and have just played the tape. There is an absolutely sensational segment on land use featuring Peter Andrews and the land reclamation movement he describes in his book “Back from the Brink”. There has been no interest from ANY politician in what he and his supporters are doing – but active support from Gerry Harvey and many other pastoralists. I don’t know if this is availble on ninemsn but it is too relevant to the next agricultural and water policy to ignore.
Im on the Sunshine coast this weekend havn’t seen that many ALP ads here at all. Same when im home in Flynn. I think ALP have given up on Flynn + hinkler and know they are a no chance in Fisher and fairfax.
I wonder if the idea came from an aboriginal child in Redfern would Howard have turned up?
Rupert said he would not be backing either side this election. Hate to see it when was being partisan.
BrissyRod
Yeah. Makes my blood boil … string of expletive deleteds ….
BTW: Yesterday’s hard-copy version of The Australian carries a pic on Page 7 that is really scarey … I almost puked.
Maccatas. I heard about Peter Andrews a couple of years back. Truly unique man doing some amazing things. I cant believe Labor haven’t grabbed him. I say Labor because as far as I know, the mainstream farming community don’t really buy into his “new age” theories… so the Nats, and therefore the Libs, wouldn’t touch him.
#233 – yeah in that case it definitely sounds internal polling which will be leaked at some stage once the push polling has given the desired results.
In the shadows of an election the Libs announce…..re Peter Andrews
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Govt-vows-cash-to-make-farming-resilient/2007/11/10/1194329553622.html
Rattus Rattus maintains that ‘Anyone that knows me knows that I am strong on Industrial Relations reform’ I also distinctly remember that going into the Keating/Hewson election, the Rat was on 7:30 Report (or whatever), I think it was either the night before the election, or the media blackout if that was in place then. It was definitely the last question put to him, and it ws on Industrial Relations, the Rat quite glibly said – ‘of course I’ll be persuing Industrial Relations etc etc…’ That was certainly the first I’d heard of IR in that campaign. That was the moment I decided that I would never ever vote Liberal. So you see he has a history on IR and how he thinks it should be run – it’s true we do know what he’s like and what he represents.
Betamax @ 242
Michael Gwanada wrote yesterday of Howard’s recent discovery of the man hug (Crosby-Textor are clearly getting physical). I must say there’s a lovely symmetry in that clip (and story), as Howard himself appears to resemble an orangutan. I was half expecting him, at the end of the opening scene in front of those bushes, to sort of lope off and scratch his armpits and let out a couple of squeals.
There is a piece about Therese Rein in the Brisbane Courier Mail today – she is totally different to Hyacinth. Said she had respect for the way Janette Howard had raised her 3 children in the glare of a pollie’s life. Not one nasty word that I could see. How different life would be under Kevin & Therese setting an example of decency – not flawless, but decent. I am still to hear Kevin make one personal derogatory remark about Howard and yet he could have enough ammunition to fill ‘the MCG’ (as Kev said yesterday re Serfchoices paperwork).
Wonder exactly what else Hyacinth says – I notice she is trying to look a lot younger in her dressing lately. Perhaps she thinks it will counteract her older looking husband.
Whenever they do that first pan across the panelists on Insiders, my heart sinks when I see Piers or Gerarde. It’s not because I disagree with their politics (although I do); it’s that when I see either of these two I know that it is going to be a dull show. They will just parrot the latest Liberal Party line. I find it makes for dreary television, even if it is relieved by a bit of baiting from the others.
I’m always delighted when I see Lenore, Matt Price, and (I know this sounds crazy) Andrew Bolt or Glen Milne. They will tell it as they see it. I may not see it their way, but what they say is usually interesting. And it helps that they are quick witted and articulate. When any of them are on, it’s usually good.
The other regulars are worthy but not as exciting. George usually has good stuff to say, but he doesn’t have the rapier wit of (for example) Lenore.
Nevertheless, I reckon it’s the best hour of television all week. Even when it’s bad it’s still pretty good.
Chris B, I doubt that too many people are interested in the cricket, so the political parties will save their ads for when they have the most reach; that’s at prime-time.
red wombat. that surprises me, but welcome recognition.
Observer #253
Afraid to say, I was in a political torpor until after the 2004 election. I tended to vote Liberal, out of habit and ignorance I suppose.
But when WorkChoices came with a thud from out of the blue, I woke up to the Liberals, and, like you, will not vote for them again.
My regret is for the votes that in my ignorance and apathy I gave them in the past.
I predict the Labor advertising campaign will go from close to zero now to full bore immediately after the Labor campaign launch on Wednesday.
The focus will be: Howard retirement; PM Costello taking WorkChoices to new levels; and the very effective “Australians have never had it so good” quote from Howard.
That trio of themes will get hammered relentlessly for nine days straight – to very good effect.
Middleman – 250 – It’s Peter ANDREN
Grog #204
During the whole controversial Gunns pulp mill decision Howard called the shots and interfered in the the process to an extent that several conditions were removed to Turnbull’s dismay.
This was a double edged sword that cut into the topic of the thread yesterday and do I really need to elaborate on the tactic employed by Howard concerning this?
Howard is so hell bent on power that he would destroy the career of one of his own because he perceives a threat.
There might be some sanity in Labor’s…how would you say….lame advertising campaign, due to the fact that there might just be a policy shift next Wednesday to break away from the copy cat capers… so far.
I have my suspicions on what this will be and I will be disappointed if this does not come to pass, as the window of opportunity will close and our national progress will remain stunted on these tax issues.
So the reality is, Wednesday will be important for our future direction.
Interest rates should also be amongst the themes.
Hopefully letters from banks saying your repayments are up $40 a month or whatever, should arrive in letterboxes in the last week of the campaign.
Importantly, it’s not that voters think Rudd would keep rates lower, it’s that rates would probably be the same no matter who was in, so why not punish Howard for his deliberately misleading promise?
alex. Andren, was the independent member for Calare (died last week). Peter Andrews and Peter Andren are different people.
Middleman – I know we are sceptical of the “vision thing” but by god I’d like to see some sign that Rudd was aware of the really big issues of climate change and war with Iran!
There have been surprisingly few “headline” announcements during the election campaign from either side.
Very little that really gets people talking.
Anyone care to predict whether Labor or the Libs will announce something really big at their launches this week?
I wonder what the Libs will go for tomorrow. It needs to create a splash, cause they are getting pretty desperate. Will they try to do something big on education so they can accuse Labor of ‘me-too’? Or will they announce marginal-seat-voter tax offset part F?
The spectre of nukers dotted at dozens of yet-to-be revealed positions on the continent should also be a theme. Blast the Liberals’ re-election chances to oblivion.
Maccatas. I agree. I’m wondering if they feel they campaign on what people in the burbs understand… solar heating, water tanks etc. and then get into the real stuff after the election.
Here is a smart but desperate tactic the Coalition could try:
Announce it is withdrawing a significant component – say half – of its $34 billion tax cuts due to the fast-changing global economic environment.
This would feed into the Coalition’s argument about difficult, demanding times ahead.
It would also place Labor in an almost impossible position. It would be a bridge too far to try to copy the Coalition reversal but it would seem irresponsible not to do so.
There would be huge political risks for the Coalition in doing this, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
Read this morning that Howard is likely to announce a paid maternity allowance this week. A trifling small number of weeks (12) compared to what other, even lesser developed countries provide. Aimed at wooing back women in the low-to-middle income ranges. Those he is shafting with WorkChoices, no doubt.
Just heard Patrice Newell (spelling?) of Climate Change Coalition on ABC’s National Interest. Um, er, sadly, she came across as a tad, er, loopy …
Saw Howard’s monkey business epic last night. How crass. Seems lib campaign directors have decided that Howard has to go …
The guy is a GRUB!
Mr Howard took the unusual step of referring to the election campaign during his official address to the ceremony at the Australian War Memorial in Canberra.
Mr Howard said the fact that Trooper David Pearce and Sergeant Matthew Locke had died during the election campaign – a celebration of democracy – was a reminder of what Australians were fighting for.
“That both of these deaths should have occurred at a time of our election campaign, that celebrates in a sense the great democracy – not only here but around the world – that they and others who have fallen in battle have died for, has reminded us in a real way of the nature of sacrifice in war,” Mr Howard said.
Hugh Mackay says he perceives a strong resurgence of idealim among the baby boomers. Now they are financially secure and have the leisure to ponder wider issuesthey are`rediscovering the things which motivated them in their youth. I see very strong support for the Greens and think they are in a very strongly influential position now.
red wombat .. I’m no fan of Howard but you can’t really take exception to that can you? He is simply making the motherhood statement that Oz troops are fighting for freedom and democracy, and that by coincidence recent deaths came during the election campaign. That is not partisan so far as I can tell especially when you consider that there is bi-partisan support for the presence in Afghanistan.
Maccatas. It’s be a while coming!
red wombat – even the dead have a role to keep Howard in Government.
Have a listen to abc national now 1.17pm
Middleman — oops, your brief description fitted Andren too. I know who you mean. Unfortunately, no mainstram political party will sign up and push somebody who looks a bit ‘new agey’ or eccentric.
red Wombat thats just lame. The PM was merely making a statement.
alex trying googling peter andrews natural sequence. he’s pretty amazing. scientists are currently trying to work out why he is so successful.
Perspective needs leisure – don’t write off older voters – a pitch to experience seems long overdue.
I nearly studied as a postgrad with Martin Green
(unfortunately Howard cut his budget and there literally, physically , no space)
I imagine that the Labor advertising will start in time to a) deflect interest away from the Liberal launch and b) Put the Liberals on the backfoot for the last part of the campaign. I would say some will start just after the Libs launch, but the bulk will start tomorrow week.
i’m off. adious!
Yes exactly, and although he deserves to lose his seat for many other reasons, I find it quite poetic that he’s going to lose power over one of his core ideologies, which he’s pursued in the vain belief that it was the best thing that could be done.
I think the public displays of forgetfulness (Mr Speaker), stress (the debate twitch) and twisting in the wind (his “sorry” explanation) show just how much he has regretted implementing his idea of IR reform. He’s lost heaps of ground as a result and is now spinning his wheels in a vain attempt to make up the lost ground.
In particular, his apology explanation might signal the end for a singnificant proportion of his core constituency. The Howard battlers – to whom he gave the first home buyer’s grant and supposedly also gave them low interest rates – would have reacted badly to those words I am sure. First he apparently apologised for the pain caused by the rate raise. This was actually a good move. Might have swayed some of those already struggling with mortgage payments. Then the next day, he’s suddenly not sorry? I know that he was trying to say that he didn’t CAUSE it, but most would have seen this as a retraction of the previous day’s apology and evidence that he just doesn’t care.
Rudd very smartly used the “will say anything and do anything to stay in power” line to exploit the moment. I believe that will cut through as well.
Ironic, too, that it was Dennis Shanahan who asked the question that provoked that response. He must have had several nights of interrupted sleep as a result.
When we look back at this campaign, I think this moment, above all, will define the campaign, and the reasons for the loss. Yes, Work Choices provided the platform for an election defeat. But Howard’s “sorry” statement all but sealed it.
Why would they interview Christine Milne about the Andrews article, maybe they thought that it would be a chance to have a crack at her? No q’s to the ALP, She showed that she is not going to bite on that rubbish, quick flick down to fine leg and then a quick single about broader issues such as Global Warming.
The reason why the broader farming community do not like the Andrews type stuff is two-fold.
Firstly they have to question whether doing the same things again and again is best and Secondly they have been lied to for so long by their ‘Leaders in the NFF and the Country/national party that Global Warming is not real, to admit it now would be hard.
This is the problem with the ‘Bolt’,'Wackerman’ view of the world. If you base your decision making around how you would like to see the world, rather than the best evidence based decision making then when there is need for change you get bad outcomes. The fact that Mark Vaile is still going on about “well there is still doubt about human influence on Global Warming” is a full blown disgrace. The people who he is causing the most harm are his supporters.
All the talk about the newspapers reminds me of that Russian joke, the Russian text of which I can’t find, but its about Pravda (the truth) and Izvestia (the news), and the joke goes “there’s no news in the Truth, and there’s no truth in the News”.
That thought goes through my head every time I see a pile of newspapers
CL de Footscray @ 174:
Re “Julie Bishop has probably been the wroist education minister in at least a decade”
I would have to disagree, without meaning to suggest she is competent. Admiral Nelson was by far worse – gutting the higher education sector, kicking off processes to micromanage universities (RQF, HEWRRS, etc.), and politicising the research funding process (personally revoking the ARC’s recommendation to fund a number of grants).
red wombat – I agree with you. Howard uses the Military to further his own devices at every opportunity. There was no need to mention the election in that speech. He just lost a few more votes from the ADF.
Rx @259
Welcome aboard! It’s a sound ship. Now, swab the deck, midshipman … then pump the bilge … we want spick and span … crowds are gathering on the dock and on the highways and byways … ready to board …
When’s the next poll?
Here’s an open challenge, Name 3 positive issues that you would run if you were steering the libs shipwreck?
John Howard IS going to retire,
Peter Costello won’t be PM until WELL into the next term
Alexander Downer Won’t be PM at All.
I’m struggling
@291
Their best bet is for Howard to renege once more and say that the economy is still to precarious for me to retire and I ahve to stay on for a full term.
Then 2 years in he can leave anyway on a high and let the liobs fight it out.
heres a tip for the Libs dump Downer. Let Costello do it as he sees fit.
#289
“Howard uses the Military to further his own devices at every opportunity.”
So true. I will never forget the “scared cowardly look” on his face when he was bolting out the back of the plane in iraq when it had to return to the airfield due to a fault. The yanks have their “Chucklenut in Chief” and we have “Coward in Chief”
Inner Westie… you are so right JWH *definitely* has a touch of the orangutan about him himself. To be safe, they should have stayed away from simians alltogether.
I think it’s the quivering, slightly overextended bottom lip? Or is it the stunted growth coupled with proportionally overlong arms?
Or that other time when he was soooo courageous down at Sale when he was addressing the locals about his new gun control laws and he was wearing a flak jacket under his clothes. Yep “Coward in Chief”!
interesting point betamax. I have often wondered about the chimpanzee traits highly evident in both Bush and Howard. Now we all have a little ape in us but these two have it in ‘bucketloads’. I wouldn’t go so far as to point to a definite link between conservatism and simian attributes, but you never know.
It is worrying to hear the degree of bias in which Uncle Rupert is indulging. Now I, like every other thinking person, can remember for future reference that Rupert Murdoch is a liar. He may pretend impartiality, but every morning his memos go out, every morning his editros receive their marching orders, and every morning every paper, TV station and online news-dispenser parrots the Conservative lines which Murdoch feeds them.
As of this election campaign, no News Ltd. paper is worth wrapping your fish and chips in. I hope that Labor get in in a landslide, and whack those bastards good.
Basil re #177
Ryan elected an ALP member in a bye-election after John Moore resigned but subsequently went back to Liberal with Michael Johnson. However Johnson is bleeding badly from Howard’s idea of putting the Ipswich Road bypass through the Ryan electorate. It won’t let them hold onto Blair and could well cost them Ryan.
I think Ryan has more than its fair share of small l Liberals and would be prepared to punt for Rudd over Howard. The odds look good enough that I threw a few bucks into the ring for a win by the ALP.
I don’t know if this has been mentioned earlier but I was surprised at the composition of the panel on “Your Shout” on today’s Insiders. I’ve never seen it so blatantly one-sided and uninteresting (not to mention doing horserace metaphors to death). Usually they manage to get people on who have a range of insightful views, but today’s lot sounded like they been trotted out of a Murdoch stable (sorry).
Betamax @ 295
Perhaps Howard had other motives when pledging $200m for the protection of Indonesian rainforests (among others) care of the Global Initiative on Forests and Climate? Securing his new neighbourhood? This is Kirribilligate mark II!
Yeah – Considering appearances, I reckon Bush is simian sp. monkey, Howard is simian, sp. chimpanzee.
Flash (and others),
Not sure that the Howard line about Australia never having it so good is such a winner for Labor (even though he was a fool to say it, that’s for sure).
I was standing in the street a couple of months ago with a bunch of people who (to a person) have minimal interest in politics (just the sort of people who’ll be starting to ponder their vote about now). And the Labor truck which has the Howard quote on the side drove past.
All these people:
(a) thought the statement was basically true, and
(b) thought the vehicle was from the Liberals!
If Labor runs this Howard quote ad nauseam, expect the Libs to counter with “name a year when people (on average) have had it better”. Which is a question Labor would want to think carefully about, before answering. (For example, 2006 would be a very bad answer for Labor to give, and so – for different reasons – would 1995).
There’s quite a bit of “feel bad” sentiment about the economy at the moment, notwithstanding a decade and a half of growth, and very low unemployment. It’s in Labor’s electoral interests to keep that negative sentiment as vague and ill-defined as possible. Just keep on the interest rate topic.
Yep, It’s Time 298, me too, I think it is one of those seats that is right for plucking.
Re ‘Howard uses the Military to further his own devices at every opportunity’, I find it obscene that both Bush and Howard, who did everything in their power to avoid military service are the ones who are so keen to sound the bugles to send our boys off to war.
I think Minchin might regret this.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/we-had-mandate/2007/11/11/1194724811712.html
He’s claiming that the said they were going to address IR – and so they had a mandate for Workchoices!!!!
Well they’ve said as much about their future plans for IR this election as last, so will they be updating Workchoices?
Ptobius @ 288,
How can you be so unkind about Nelson? Have you forgotten the flagpoles?
Amused @ 256,
I know exactly what you mean about that first pan across the Insiders set, but it’s OK if Piers is counterbalanced with David Marr. Those two have had fireworks in the past, although they were quite cordial today (I think they must have sedated David). But then David didn’t have to do much as Lenore just sliced through the Liberal mouthpiece on the extreme right (of the set). I enjoy Bolt’s appearances too — I regard him as the thinking person’s Piers Ackerman. The person I really groan at seeing (apart from Gerard) is Brian Toohey – nice man, but not a good TV performer.
I don’t know if this has been mentioned earlier but I was surprised at the composition of the panel on “Your Shout” on today’s Insiders. I’ve never seen it so blatantly one-sided and uninteresting (not to mention doing horserace metaphors to death). Usually they manage to get people on who have a range of insightful views, but today’s lot sounded like they been trotted out of a Murdoch stable (sorry).
257 Lord D Hey? Then why do all the advertising companies waste their money?
Oh by the way I just saw my first union anti Work Choices advertisement. It was a good one.
Ptobias @ 288 – fair enough. How about ‘the second worst, after Nelson, who was the worst in a generation …’
Damning, as they say, with faint praise
Just saw a guy waving the aussie flag wearing a Kevin 07 T-Shirt on the cricket.
We just got our first wicket for the day! Someone in the crowd has a Kevin 07 t-shirt on. Waving the Aussie flag. The camera was right on him. Yeh!
CL, Ptobias, I think you’re being very unfair to Kemp and Vanstone.
Pancho, the competetion amongst that lot is fairly fierce.
I wonder if we could nominate the MOST incompetent Minister in the Howard Government? That would be a very fiercely contested competition.
It’s a toughie, but I think I’d go for Kevin the A at this stage. Managed to f#@k up two portfolios consecutively. But then, the relative temporal proximity of his incompetence may give it a resonance it doesn’t deserve.
#308 #309 Proves that at least two people watch the cricket.
Well said Charles, Glen is doing the ALP a big favour
Kevin Andrews wins by a country mile through a diabolical combination of utter ineptitude, a liking for the dog whistle, a whiny voice and generally insipid appearance.
Latest update on the U.S. election.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Chris B
I wonder how many other closet cricket tragics are lurking.
eeewwww – Galaxy has done a poll and their conclusion is that twice as manyre people want to see Rudd than Howard in the nude.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22739483-2,00.html
Galaxy has done this poll for Zoo mag. I can think of nothing vomit inducing than to see ANY pollie in the nude……just the thought. God ..I’ve..got..to…get..that..thought…out…of…my…head.
Have any of you seen Leonore on insiders with the Toad when David is not there .She is not nearly as good .She and David work as a team against the Toad .David keeps the toad pacified and controlled so Leonore can have the space to clearly say what needs to be said.When David is not there the toad just talks over her and dismisses any thing she says and this upsets her equilibrium.
Evan 93
I think from memeory that David Marr had already said that the voters have been locked in for sometime and His statement to Numbnuts was purely taking the piss out of him. He rose to it like a skunk to hot S#@t.
Every time the tub of lard ventured from his box Lenore politely told him to get back in. He almost back pedalled up his own a$#e when Lenore picked him up on the “those women in the adds” bit.
He would have the most comical satirical blog in the hemisphere if he dared to open it up to all comers not just those that lick his boots.
Its a bummer when you want to vent on him and he will not publish.
Janette is now a politician and a fair game.
Tag-team assault by Howards – PRIME Minister John Howard and his wife, Janette, have launched a double-barrelled assault on Kevin Rudd, branding the Opposition Leader hopeless on economics, lacking strong convictions, and not as good a campaigner as Bob Hawke. “One thing we know is that he doesn’t know anything about economics,” said Mrs Howard, in an interview at Kirribilli House on Friday, alongside her husband of 37 years.
SMH – http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tagteam-assault-by-howards/2007/11/10/1194329563863.html
the “save the orangutans” video is appalling, even by the rodent’s low standards…
once again, it’s really all about John. just listen to what the rodent is actually droning on about in the voice over: “moving forward in adversity”, “inspirational Australians” ie, as he sees it, him and Janette – who is lurking throughout the whole excrutiating 90 seconds…
they’re obviously both in complete denial, and I would hate to be the one charged with getting the keys to Kirribilli from Janette Sat week – maybe she’ll try to change the locks
I’d love to see Cornes and Stott Despoja nude…
Anyway! Let’s have a look at Howard’s crazy announcements this week.
1 – 500,000 for the Orangutangs.
2 – Divorce and infertility to rise under Labor
3 – Sorry no longer amounts to an apology.
Actually, maybe I will vote LNP after all…
@ 317
What, aj, you’re telling me you wouldn’t cop an eyeful of Ron Boswell in the buff? C’mon, we’re only human …
Ptobius @ 288,
How can you be so unkind about Nelson? Have you forgotten the flagpoles?
Amused @ 256,
I know exactly what you mean about that first pan across the Insiders set, but it’s OK if Piers is counterbalanced with David Marr. Those two have had fireworks in the past, although they were quite cordial today (I think they must have sedated David). But then David didn’t have to do much as Lenore just sliced through the Liberal mouthpiece on the extreme right (of the set). I enjoy Bolt’s appearances too — I regard him as the thinking person’s Piers Ackerman. The person I really groan at seeing (apart from Gerard) is Brian Toohey – nice man, but not a good TV performer.
Awesome. Looks like ratty has a lock on the gay vote.
According to the poll, “Mr Howard may find some solace in the gay vote – 18 per cent of men want to see the PM in the buff, compared to only 14 per cent for Mr Rudd.”
We have already seen Howard in the buff. The Emperor has no clothes.
If mark Lathem was still in politics
I think he would have made the ideal choice for the Speaker of the House
if Labor gets in
He wouldnt take crap off any of the Coalition members, he would put them in their place,
Anyone agree?
aAsa a rule, I avid the Murdoch press. I’m in Sydney so I read the SMH on the train in the morning and glance at the Oz at the coffee shop. I certainly wouldn’t pay for it. I think it’s a travesty that people in some other capital cities don’t have the same options.
There is just so much to choose from when searching for the worst MP in government. An embarrassment of riches really. For mine, Alexander Downer is head & shoulders above the rest. With him around who needs an opposition. Wisely, he seems to have been kept away from the spotlight thus far.
The T. Abbott is aferensis neanderthal robustus minus gracile, a peculiar off-shoot from the common links to what we now consider “human”. To date, only one specimen has been discovered. The remains, discovered by a ploughman during his lunch break, were perfectly preserved in a peat bog. Several decades went by and then a team of serious archaeological types from Oxford went for a squizz. They were immediately struck by the overly large size of the ear units. This led to speculation that the remains represented an early form of flight evolution. That is, a dino trying to get off the ground. This was ruled out, however, when further examination revealed nothing much happening between the ears. The remains are now kept in a safe place, under controlled conditions, awaiting further study.
When’s the next poll?
Inner Westie @ 318.
Boswell in the nude is definately a bad moon on the rise.
Oh my god Westie, thanks for that, now not only have I’ve got Ron Bowell in their but Wilson Tuckey. Loose skin…hanging…and all that.
For those of you who think Marr is a hack, have a read of these:
1. Patrick White: A Life (the definitive White biography)
2. Dark Victory (with Marian Wilkinson, a scrupulously researched account of Howard’s Tampa-led campaign in 2001)
3. His Master’s Voice: The Corruption of Public Debate under Howard (an essay about the deterioration in the quality of public debate in this country under Howard)
What has Ackerman written to compare with these? I accept that Marr is anti-Howard (that’s pretty obvious), but I can’t see how anyone could reasonably put him on an equal intellectual footing with a birdbrain like Ackerman.
Why is everyone so touching about poor old Glen, everyone knows Julia is very a very ambitous woman and has worked under some of the best men in town
On Milne in the Sunday Mail this morning, the story was different compared to the dribble he wrote in the terror and sun. We do seem to have a watered down version of the terror, for which I’m grateful. After reading the terror it sometimes reminds me of the people mag my husband used to read…just without the nudie’s. (oh shite, there they are the nudie pollies in my mind again..get out….think election night, howard losing speech…better)
On Wackaman, yep he didn’t make any of his own arguments, just the Liberal party rhectoric probably off their web site. It really IS boring to listen to such partisan comments, when the media are crying out for FOI media laws to be rectified. With one hand they want more access to the government and public service, but we the public were awake to the lake of criticism from the media concerning Howard’s govt years ago.
If Lenore had a bit more time I think she would have ripped him a new one, of course she would have done it in her steady,classy and logical way.
darn, 324 I meant ‘there’ not ‘their’
Nude pollies? Scary.
Nude journos? Scarier.
Nude bloggers? Don’t even go there!
We need Larry Pickering to bring back his “Pickering’s Playmates” calendars. Those who are old enough to remember the Pickering calendars will never forget Hawke’s “wedding tackle” featured in the early 80s: it was ENORMOUS, and had a mind of its own – and it was drinking a beer, for memory.
I just spent a few minutes poking around the ALP’s youtube site. They have some good ads there that I haven’t seen on TV at all (in Sydney). I hope Labor have got their strategy right. I am already detecting some serious election fatigue amongst people at my work and David Marr’s comment on Insiders today – that the electorate are just beginning to take notice – doesn’t gel with my experience. People in my workplace, who don’t normally pay attention to politics, were interested when the election was first called but are now simply getting sick and tired of the whole thing. There are a number of people who voted Lib last election but have changed to Labor primarily because of SerfChoices, and they don’t seem to be changing back, which is a relief. However I wonder if Labor had been pumping out a few more of these ads more frequently, and earlier, whether we would see an even more positive result come election day.
Oh well, at least Labor are still streets ahead in the campaigning stakes when compared with the train wreck that is the Howard/Loughnane attempt.
I think Piers Ackerman should stay oin Insiders. Face it, the ABC can get him for a bucket of fried chicken for each appearance. I hope he makes an appearance on 25/11.
Geez I go away for the afternoon and I get back and find the conversation has turned to nude politicians!
269 Flash it would be very desperate of the Libs to ditch their tax plan – especially as the govt they could hardly come out with a “we had no idea 3 weeks ago things were this bad” line.
Also they would have to keep the lower income tax cuts especially as they trumpetted them as encouraging workforce participation. And thus they would end up with something similar to the ALP plan (in the broadterms).
careful Fagin… they’re starkers…
Lib campaign has been poor. I suspect that, had they simply said every day, “Don’t risk Labor”, they’d have done better.
Howard’s “sorry doesn’t mean sorry” moment on Thursday was an absolute shocker in my view.
And his basic problem (too old and a bit out of touch) is not going to go away.
mytym @ 321
There is no way Downer is the worst minister, cleary the Downer Months were some of the finest in our political history.
Maybe the orangutan money is to build an Ackerman enclosure for his retirement>
fiztig, I think the electorate was tuned in for the first week, but has been hitting the snooze button since then. The launches will try and wake them but I have my doubts.
Julie is a tragic. We have no connection with that well known cricket tragic. At least I can bowl.
Thank you, William for this blog. I have enjoyed this site for some time, but as a one finger typist have never previously contributed. However, I felt sorry for previous contributors to this thread who have expressed frustration at having to wait for programs such as ” Insiders ” to start because of daylight saving. The answer for those who can afford the moderate cost – $ 350 here in Perth about 2 years ago as the one-off installation cost with no ongoing fees or charges – is to have installed a small satellite dish receiving the Optus Aurora signal.
This enable me to time-jump around Australia receiving a minimum of 5 ABC TV stations ( WA, QLD,SA,NT, & SE i.e. NSW/VIC ) & 4 SBS stations ( as for ABC but excluding NT ). So, for ” Insiders ” which starts in Perth at 9 am, I have the choice of watching ABC SE at 7am, ABC SA at &.30 am, ABC QLD at 8 am or waiting until 9 am for the standard Perth time viewing. I am really looking forward to election night to start seeing Eastern States broadcasts from 4 pm Perth time.
@322 Derek
slowly wiping away the tears of laughter
New Labor ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgLOccpAd8E
dyno, agreed, the Liberal and National party messages have been all over the place and they and especially Howard, has lost the plot. I agree with someone @ pb who said that Howard seem to be on a different message to Costello and all the rest of the candidates seemed to have wiped any images of the above or policies from their campaign. Instead we are seeing local issues from the back benchers, costello’s good economy/tsunami/wc will bring wages under control, howards don’t be scared of success/we’re in for hard times/wc will improve wages. etc
A quote from this article http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tagteam-assault-by-howards/2007/11/10/1194329563863.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1 from our compassionate leader:
“Every shopping centre you go into, someone will bowl up to you and say ‘I was sacked yesterday unfairly, blah blah blah blah blah”
lol ChrisB
Labor should forget about all these crap political ads and just keep repeating an ad of Rattus bowling that cricket ball with a voice at the end saying
“does Australia really need this man”
Middleman, Alex etc, there was a full doco on SBS or ABC a couple of years ago. The guy was a brilliant horse breaker and apparantl he split off with the family . Had to leave the farm. He had done the water thing on his own property. Gerry harvy i think somehow got involved with him to do with his horse buiso and i think he went to work for gerry. He did the water thing on Gerry’s property and it worked. Gerry harvey then got some scientists to look at it. From memory the scientists spouted it to the Govt but the govt scientists then pooh poohed it and it must be resurfacing now.
I believe that what he did was excellent and made sense, the fact that he was holding back the water and slowing the flow.
I remember being very agro about the goverment virtually calling him a snake oil salesman at the time. He was not even trying to sell the idea for cash he was trying to sell the idea.
RE: Nominations for worst MP
Worst! For mine, it has to go to Ruddock. Long-term damage to our legal institutions. It will take years to repair. Downer is a prize goose, but fences can be re-built. With good will and an open heart. The rest are just common garden variety dills. Beneath contempt.
I like it RGee. I note Piers hated it on Insiders this morning (which is a good enough endorsement for me)
Whoever was asking about Insiders online, it’s now up on the video on demand page but not yet on the Insiders page which always seems to lag a bit more.
I agree Derek.
But I would say Reith takes the prize for all-time worst Minister under Howard (though there’s only a cigarette paper between them)
Reports of the Labor party going for Howard with his silly ‘retirement’ promise is pure gold!
Get your cash on Maxine now before her odds shorten considerably this week.
The best is still Sportingbet.com.au and you also get a $100 free bet, so for a minum outlay of $30 you can have Maxine @ $2.75 and a better than even money chance of winning.
Costello gets on board the climate change bus:
“Mr Costello said it was the world’s richest people who had produced most of the greenhouse gas, CO2.
He said policies designed to reverse global warming were about justice because climate change would impact heavily on future generations who had no say in today’s decision-making.
“What are we doing for them?” Mr Costello asked, referring to the next generation of Australians.”
Of course it was TIM Costello… sigh.
If Labor is really streets ahead why are they changing their campaign strategy? If Howard is as unpopular as they say he is why does Labor focus on the Costello Transition so much?
Andrew Bolt has an interesting thread on this here –
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/mother_of_all_smear_campaigns/
#337 What do we think of these ads?
I think the first one was stronger, and I wonder whether comments from real people in the street would be better (I noticed Labor has one of these street grab ads on its site – but I’m not sure if it’s actually been on air).
I am struggling to put myself into a swinging voter’s shoes to determine how it will be received.
re : worst Howard minister
1: Ruddock….the man is a fu*kin sellout to common decency.
2: Andrews….his patent stupidity protects him from tieing with Ruddock.
3: Reith…nightmares persist of this ghoul spitting and drooling his venom.
4: a 20 person tie.
All captained by the Don Bradman of lowest common denominator politics John Winston Howard.
aj Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
darn, 324 I meant ‘there’ not ‘their’
aj – Thanks for the special mention.
Uncharacteric slip by Nick Minchin. He always seemed one of the Coalition’s best political operators.
But now saying they had a mandate for WorkChoices, he opens a new line of hard questions to answer – like what other cards do they have up their sleeves this time?
Thommo, that is not a change in strategy at all – it’s just a change in emphasis – after all they couldn’t be so stupid as to keep runing the same ads for 6 weeks..
A change in strategy it to starts by saying we’re going to “Go For Growth”, and back this up by saying we shouldn’t be afraid of grwoth, to then say a tsunami is comming, and to then ditch the go for growth slogan while announcing the most important economic decision of the campaign.
343 Grog
Do you think it’s possible that Labor could ultimately alter their tax policy and the coalition might try to follow suit???
Kirribilli Removals (361) – love that nom de plume
I’ve got my free $100 with Sportsbet on Labor at $1.95.
Grog why would they change their emphasis 2 weeks out from the election if what they were doing has put them so far ahead.
Thommo, Labor have stayed so far ahead all year by setting the agenda and not letting their tactics become too predictable. Further, ads are always ramped up in the final two weeks. And a clever tactician starts with a positive campaign and goes negative later, leaving the impression that they are the leaders. The Liberals have been comprehensively outcampaigned.
365 HarryH. As the Fonz would say “Exactamundo!”. Also, as the father of a child with cerebral palsy, I find Howard’s orangutan ad a f@#king disgrace. To use a horrible illness for political gain re-emphasises what a low-life he is. The local children’s hospital is much the same. If it put half the effort into looking after disabled children that it puts into using them for publicity purposes they would get much better care.
Re 330,
Damien J Says:
Indeed and in one respect, Sydney’s options are better than Melbourne’s. In Sydney, if you are at the trainstop where you pick up all of the ferries (they have like 6 docks there), the news agent {in front of pier/dock 4 I think?}carries the The Age. You can’t get the SMH in Melbourne, no one would buy it
….. Damien, don’t read the SMH, it is fast becoming too conservative and more and more like the Daily Telegraph. Go down to the wharf and buy the Age each day 
. I don’t buy any papers at all, read them all online, The Age is my homepage and I live in the Liverpool area.
The Age wouldn’t be there unless there was a call for it and to the best of my knowledge, that is the only place in Sydney where you can get The Age too.
Neither party can afford to alter their approach to tax, given they have each so stridently defended their position(s?). Any change now would give the other side a field day, trawling through their previous messages in defence and being able to create great sound grabs.
Pancho, Labor have copied the governments agenda all year with its constant me-toos. The only agenda setting it has done was their broadband announcement and the government trumped that with its broadband policy.
Dennis Shanahans peice this weekend saying that Labors marginal seat polling is not showing as big a swing as the published polls was also very interesting.
A change in emphasis capitilises on strengths and opens a slight wound in the Libs, to ensure it will be gaping come the 24th.
It shows for the first time in 4 elections the ALP are playing like winners.
Re 349,
Chris B Says:
Yes, you called?
369 scaper – them’s high stakes poker…
The ALP could only do it if the Tuesday newspoll shows them widening, otherwise it would look desperate.
But jeez, it certainly would wake up the public!
Apologies to anyone who had to wait all day for comments to get moderated. Thanks to Follow the Preferences @ 5 and Mark @ 131 for pointing out typos, they are now corrected.
I need some help!
I am an Aussie living on the East coast of the U.S.A. (I love reading this blog. Thankyou.) But I have just worked out that the polls will close at 2:00 a.m. on Saturday morning our time here (6:00pm your time). Can anyone tell me how I can get live coverage over here? I can get ABC Newsradio through live streaming on my computer. Are they running live coverage on Election night? All suggestions welcome.
“Labor have copied the governments agenda all year with its constant me-toos”
Not on issues that people are paying attention to, and are central to politics at the moment, like IR, global warming and health. It rather has found a way to counter divisive and small-minded wedging. And it is working.
John Winston Howard – ‘If I’m elected no Oranguatang will live in poverty by 2008.’
Fagin
I remember those Pickerings! The image of Hawkie’s tackle will haunt me to me grave. Awesome! (To use a youngism) Daring in its day, though. These days, the satire has moved to the online stuff, such as youtube et el. Maye the kiddies are not brain dead.
Gaffhook – 356 I have seen that TV doco as well as another on Peter Andrews and his re-generation technique. I found it interesting but it seemed to be a micro ecology system which may not be suitable all over the country. Unfortunately, governments are only interested in BIG ideas that affect a wide community with lots of potential votes.
381,
I can certainly appreciate your situation. I am US by birth, married to an Aussie and we lived in the US through 96/98/01 and 04 elections. This will be the first election for him to have voted on Australian soil instead of a postal vote since 1993. I think if you go to the newsradio website
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/
you can ask them that question directly via the “contact us” button up in the righthand corner. They ought to be able to tell you
:).
I know for a fact there is a trump and if they do not play it due to the lead in the polls…then it might just be the “change everything” after the election.
I’m looking forward to Wednesday and if by chance if I hear…costed and costed to it’s bullet proof, I will be chuffed.
scaper, you need to stop talking in riddles. it isn’t the least bit helpful
376
That’s bullsh#t on Labors marginal seat polling i know for a fact it better than poor old Dennis is saying
Wednesday – Labor party launch – ??
385
That’s why we have to go it in hand with corporate Australia then the so called leaders will have no other choice but to follow.
No its not James.
Thommo – Shanahan was caught out full-on lying about the motor industry issue last week. He knows the Libs are f..ked and is resorting to the most outrageous stories such as the marginal seats yarn. Read Possum and get the real story.
#388 Julie
I apoligise and due to the nature of what I’m trying to communicate here, it is best that maybe I desist.
I think I’m with you scaper.
But it’s always nice to have more than one trump in your hand. I hope the ALP does on Wednesday night – and that one of them is a bower.
381 Apprehensive News Radio and ABC 774 should be covering the election, both have streaming.
Well I guess we shall see on election night. There could be alot of red faces here…..
So much for the team!
Only Turnbull, Minchin and Ellison could be described as competent.
My worst:
Andrews, Downer, Ruddock, Nelson, Bishop, Vaile, Cossie, Abbott McGauran, Macfarlane
No wonder they haven’t highlighted them.
392 Thommo Yes it is Thommo. I don’t know which election you and Shanahan are following but its certainly not this one.
Absolutely true Thommo. IF the ALP doesn’t win, the polling, gambling and blogging worlds will be very red faced.
Ah Thommo@397, you sound a bit like Labor folks in the leadup to 96. I’m keeping that message to repost to you on the 25th.
392
NO i know it better
Bloody rain at the Gabba…
397 Thommo I suppose you have to do something to rally the troops. By being in denial at least someone can help give the troops a glimmer of hope.
Thommo
Remember this is POLL Bludger – we have been disecting the entrails of polls for months. There is no evidence that what Shananananhan is saying is true – he does not need evidence.
HAHAHAHAHA….Shanahan said so, so it must be true……..gotta love those 5 knuckle shuffling Libs.
Thommo, in the event of the unmentionable my face will be a deeper shade of purple than mere red – it’ll be something approximating black (which could make getting through customs on my way to Turkmenistan a little awkward (unless, of course, I adopt the ‘Cousins defence’)).
239
Rusted on Says:
Janette loves the odd execution
For crimes that deserve retribution.
When she’s forced to retreat
From Kirribilli post-defeat
They’ll find a dead rodent: electrocution.
electoratecution?
Politicians you’d like to see nude:
Kate Ellis
ABC radio and maybe ABC TV will be streaming.
Open up Poll Bludger & ABC Election results.
if something were to happen to these sites *touchng wood not* then check out the other major networks and major newspapers.
On another matter I see Channel 7 have put together a panel for election night can I take it that they will be fully covering the night.
397 [Well I guess we shall see on election night. There could be alot of red faces here…..]
Even worse a few Blue ones too…
Rumour: Rudd will annnounce something huge at Labor’s campaign launch that will absolutely blow the Rodent out of the water.
Thoughts?
No! HH.
Some interesting gossip!!
Melbourne’s young are swing towards the ALP, while many middle aged voters are leaning towards the Greens then seriously thinking about where to go from there.
BMWofVictoria @ 410:
Yes, Seven have full coverage. Their panel has Beattie and Kennett, which could be interesting, but the fact that it’s hosted by three of their light entertainment morning people (Koch, Doyle and O’Keefe) makes my stomach churn.
Only 10 and SBS aren’t having full coverage on the free TV.
Politicians you’d like to see nude:
Andrew Quha FF
oh hang on….pass me that magnifying glass pls
oh, ok, Bronwyn Bishop.
HH: I think Rudd will release the rest of his education and training packages.
I saw the ALP add this morning along the lines of what Milne alluded to. I think it is a good message. LNP voters are not voting for Ratman, they are voting for Costello. This, I think, is a very powerful message. Costello is deeply unpopular across the electorate. I think hammering this message home will be an effective strategy.
415 @ Ptobias
Thanks, yes Jeff and Beattie will be interesting.
Kochie while he may host a morning breakfast show can be very serious when needed, he is a well regarded business journo well liked in Business circles.
I hate cricket!
Just thought I’d get that out of my system
Kevin has announced a new policy today
This is on livenews.com.au
The Labor leader travelled to a suburban Perth park, filled with children and families enjoying a barbeque, to make the announcement.
Mr Rudd is committing $510 million over three years to cover the cost of an annual check-up for teenagers.
“What we’re concerned about is the charges at present, getting beyond the ability of many working families to pay,” Mr Rudd said.
Under the scheme, families would receive a 150 dollar rebate to cover the cost of a dentist visit.
any polls out tomorrow? Galaxy? ACN?
Dman I hate being an addict. Hurry up the 25th!!! (hear hear says my wife!)
Shanahan is either making it up to keep up morale for his side or more likely is being fed disinformation. It is in Labor’s interests to spread the word that it’s very tight. Beattie, Bracks and Carr and their organisations did this every time before scoring landslide victories.
As for the change in emphasis, it’s very simple. Labor has spent the campaign so far softening up Howard. He has been out thought, out fought and out played. Just look at the 24 hours he wasted arguing semantics over what he meant by sorry. Howard looks twitchy and old. Like many old men, he just can’t do it anymore.
Now Labor has its foot on Howard’s throat, or the stiletto heel if you prefer, they are moving in for the kill.
Rudd has stalked Howard for nearly a year. In less than 2 weeks, he will have his prey, dead, the carcass rotting and full of stench.
Rudd has been clinical and brutal. Woe betide anybody who gets in his way as PM.
The rumor for the Labor launch will probably be on the education revolution and security. he’s done tax, housing, health and the environment. What will be more interesting is what they adapt in response to the Liberal launch on Monday. And by the way. Polies naked? hve we really sunken that low?
I would be expecting something for universities.
I’m surprised Rudd hasn’t announced funding for a stadium in Perth yet
The small-minded media here will rip into him if he announces it after Howard
There’s plenty of bogans and morons here who would easily base their vote on a new stadium to watch footy.
Could Tabitha be Janette Howard?
This is what I predict will be going through the minds of voters on the 24th:
Dental plan! (Lisa needs braces) Dental plan (Lisa needs braces), Dental plan (Lisa needs braces)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/11/2087604.htm
Pollies naked? Do we actually have any pollies who are cute, young, and male? Help me out here…
6-8,000 at the Walk for Climate change in Canberra – lots of young people and a great boost for kerrie Tucker’s campaign for the senate.
Green advertising – “Have your cake and Eat it too” – explaining how you can use your preference in the Reps to get a climate change message across while using your preference to shake up the government.
then vote for Kerrie Tucker in the Senate to get control away from the major parties.
Nicely targeted at a Canberra audience.
mad cow @ 429. I always suspected Pyne trawled this forum
SeanofPerth @ 426
Stadiums can also be used to stage public executions. Something Prime Minister Rudd might find useful when he conducts his inevitable crusades through the public service and Canberra press gallery.
(Note to Steve Price: it was joke mate.)
Didn’t Jodie Moore run for a seat in Queensland……?
Grog @ 360
Yes. Agree. Will you cop Ruddock 1. Reith 2. Consider the damage. (I must confess, I’d forgotten the odious Reith).
Why didn’t Turnbull march? Ok, probably most there were already on the ALP/Greens side, but surely it’d help his Wentworth chances?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/11/2087608.htm
I tend to agree with Spiros. Labor has stalked Howard and the Libs all year and really messed with their minds. Howard’s erratic bahviour last week confirms he is truly rattled (rattus rattled?). I believe that Labor will announce a block buster policy at the campaign ‘launch’. My guess is a reduction in HECS – a sure fire winner for the Gen Ys and their Boomer parents.
Don’t forget the swift and violent Education Revolution, it’s going to be nasty.
I sent an email to Sky about their bias, i got a snide and sarcastic reply saying they are only doing their job
436: that certainly would be consistent with the broader economic/ addressing inflation thrust from the ALP
Fat Mandy was the worst – she was actually sacked well and truly before the election. Just too much of an embarrasment to have lolling around.
Derek, it’s like choosing between constipation and diarrhea.
I’m sorry but non are worst then Andrews.
His performance with Aged Care, then Workchoices then Immigration.
Alex @436 – I agree. Nothing I have seen yet really gets close to an “education revolution”. A reimagining of our Higher Education system would be incredible.
To quote one of my liberal voting friends (who is voting for labor the first time this election), “If Rudd comes up with a killer Education policy, it’ll be a landslide.” We (excluding glen, esj, et al) can all but hope.
Perth needs a 60000 seat rectangular stadium for international sport.The local Bogans already have one, it’s called Subiaco oval and Ben Cousins used to play there.
Rudd could do a lot worse for himself than make a commitment in that regard.
428 Grog. You’ve never bought braces for your kids, have you?
But it’s a good idea from Labor. Get the preventative care happening, saves massive problems done the track. Sensible use of health dollars.
200 wickets for McGill. woo hoo!
No Crispy, but my use a Simpsons quote kinda ignores reality a tad.
Be careful about which quiz you think I’m answering,
Amanda Vanstone
Does anyone have a link to the Shanahan article containing the marginal seat polling quips, or the page number of the Weekend Oz?
ah sorry Grog I missed the literary allusion, silly me…
I have a quote for upper and lower braces pinned on the board in front of me, so I’m a little sensitive. Sigh.
Just saw two Liberal ads and not one ALP ads. What the f*ck is going on?
Crispy, that is still a few years ahead for me. But I feel your pain.
It is so obvious that dental is such a massive neglect from both sides.
I have no idea how to fix it. It’s always going to be expensive; it’s always going to be hard to get enough dentists… but at least the ALP’s plan does help on the preventative side.
Poss I think Thommo was referring to the Shanahan article linked to above by William. John Acquilina restating the standard ALP ‘16 seats is a tall order’ line.
Chris B it ain’t prime time yet – let them waste their money.
But mor eimportatnyl were the Lib ads any good? There’s lots of advertising on TV; doesn’t mean you buy everything.
-450. Chris.
The libs are running 15 sec adds, Labor with 30 seconds meaning the libs get more in.
I think this is a new ad posted today as part of the direct attack on Howard line they are taking:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgLOccpAd8E
Ta Crispy – that ol’ horsefluff?
Pfft.
“The economy will win this election for Mister Howard. and then i dare all you leftards to come back here and face up to reality lol.”
Glen, 5.3.07
Sorry Crispy, I couldn’t resist opening one more present…only because the voices on the other side of the fence have been so silent lately. But never mind. I have plenty more in the stocking.
How long is the electronic media blackout? Is it just 24 hours, or longer?
Alex, Gaffhook, Middleman The links to the Peter Andrews story are: http://www.nsfarming.com and
http://www.sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/cover_stories/article_2349.asp
FtP @447
I agree.
or…
“My eyes! The goggles do nothing!”
451
Grog Says:
It is so obvious that dental is such a massive neglect from both sides.
I have no idea how to fix it.
There is no substitute for increased funding, for both immediate services, and training of future dentists. Efficiency drives only go so far, and there is little blood left to wring out of that stone.
Until the government and the general community accept that, it ain’t gonna get better.
Same argument for health services in general.
Doeas anyone know the lineups for election night?
ABC – Penny Wong &
Nine – Kroger &
Seven – ??
Ten – nothing?
Old Bob McMullin usually gets a guernsey somewhere.
Anyone know where Rudd will be? Brisbane?
And now I know why campaign launches don’t happen until week 5.
We pay for the travel!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/11/2087535.htm?section=justin
fron the AEC website.
Under Schedule 2 of the Broadcasting Services Act 1992, which is administered by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), election advertising in the electronic media is subject to a ‘blackout’ from midnight on the Wednesday before polling day to the end of polling on the Saturday. This three-day blackout effectively provides a “cooling off” period in the lead up to polling day, during which political parties, candidates and others are no longer able to purchase time on television and radio to broadcast political advertising.
Chris 450 – Saw both lots of ads here in Mel in 10 news – two of each – Libs ads are pathetic and amateurish
Re 444,
Crispy Says:
Re ortho work for kids – a little known fact but it does work and is a part of Medicare. IF your child has a Health Care Card AND is in need of ortho work AND it is serious ortho work and not just plain ortho work, you ARE eligible to get that ortho work completely free through Medicare.
Conditions –
1. the work will take place through the ortho staff at selected public hospitals where they are staffed with pediatric orthodontic clinics. you can NOT go to a private ortho clinic and be reimbursed.
2. child MUST pass an exam to make sure that he/she meets the treatment criteria (if simple ortho problems, they don’t treat; must be what they consider more serious and/or complex).
3. must sit time in the queue and wait, this can be several years. You need to get your child examined around age 8 – 10 at the public hospitals pediatric ortho clinic as then by the time they get off of the waitlist (around 11 – 13), then all of their adult teeth are in. Ortho clinic will NOT start treatment on a child aged younger than this.
4. ONCE actively in the system and NOT in the queue any longer, you can transport from state to state AS long as the receiving state hospital in your new location has both the staff and space to take you in. It is up to the receiving hospital to make this decision, it is a judgement call on their part. Otherwise, you migrate to the private ortho system.
5. IF you move states prior to going off of the queue, you must rejoin the queue at the end in your new state/hospital.
I know all of this because I have a child who has a health care card and is in the queue for ortho treatment at Westmead here in Sydney at the moment.
If you go to a pediatric hospital and they don’t know about this, ask them to check it out. IT IS TRUE. I was at Westmead multiple times over 18 months or so until at one visit an alert dentist flagged this when she noted I had a health care card. MANY physicians and dentists simply DO NOT know about this. You may have to insist and ask them to check it out.
Repeating – IF you have a health care card for your child and he/she is in need of ortho treatment and is in the 7 to 10 age group, you MAYBE eligible for getting it completely free.
Note – ACT is covered for purposes of this program under NSW so your family would be going back and forth to Westmead to take advantage of this program.
Well, Snakeboy, if that is indeed your name, since we’re playing, I too have my cache…
“Cerdic Conan Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 3:38 pm
…you will see the trend in action on election night! The Man of Steel will come storming home, and the left will be left struggling to come up with some flimsy excuse as how he managed to beat them yet again. Stay tuned for that inventive excuse – it should be absolutely hilarious !
So says Cerdic Conan.”
On a nostalgic note.
#462 – Grog, my guess is Ten will show a rerun of one of the Harry Potter movies. Or maybe a rerun of Guy Sebastian winning Australian Idol…with Paul Buongiorno doing the links.
Just Me 408
Good one.
electoratecution. I like it.
I too hope that if there’s a big announcement it’s about education. None of us want our kids saddled with massive HECS debts.
462 Grog,
over at ozelections site, there is a thread going with all of the specifics …..
Grog @ 462 – here’s some info for you: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721793-5013948,00.html
Grog, in answer to your question:
ABC: Nick “arrogant prick” Minchin, Julia Gillard, Kerry, Antony Green
Nine: Swanny, Kroger, Oakes, Martin
Seven: Hawkey, Beattie, Shrek Hockey, Mark Riley, Mel & Kochie
Chris: I don’t watch much commerical TV, but I’ve seen ALP ads on Channel 9 after 7PM at night, as well as Rudd’s 5 minute slots on the ABC
And don’t forget Labor ads on the internet
Saw Wayne ‘Rooster’ Swan down at Prahran Market this morning while i was doing the shopping, was so close to yelling at him to ‘go back to Queensland’ but i am not like the rabid left who viciously verbal Coalition MPs and Ministers at every given moment. Still he has some guts to show his face in public when he is more unliked than Deputy Dawg.
Oh and Snakeboy if ‘anything’ will win this election for the Tories it is the economy, so i stand by my comments.
S @ 463:
Minchin in that story says “Now there is this convention about the point at which you can no longer claim travel allowance, but I think Australians understand they want to hear the political messages from both sides of politics and to do that you’ve got to get around the country.”
Someone ought to tell him about TV and the Internet.
ABC for me then.
Crispy…and I think that is almost certainly your name…those quotes are gold. We must enjoy them while they have some cache. Because after Nov 24th, they will be lost in the tide of the here-and-now.
wtf ??
Nine’s plan to include humorous spots from Firth, a founding member of the Chaser team, in its poll night coverage. Nine news and current affairs boss John Westacott said: “(Firth) will give us a bit of comic relief. We’re taking this extremely seriously. It is one of the most interesting elections for many years and we intend to do a first-class job of it.”
Bet Laurie Oakes and Ray Martin just love that.
Can you imagine Mel and Koshey? Their special brand of banter can make the most important information feel like a super suds comercial.
Can’t wait for the Liberal policy launch. Want to know what their nuclear power policy is. They’re not trying to pull another workchoices stunt are they?
ABC for me too. But the occasional flick to 7 to see Hockey squirm.
So how did Ch 7 get Hockey….tell him it was a “pie night”
Over at Channel 7
Mel: So can you just exaplin for our voters this swing thing you talk about? Does it mean the Liberals actually have recieved a negative number of votes?
Rowan, don’t forget they’ll have Andrew O’Keefe as well – his game show expertise ought to really serve him well.
Apparently the Coalitions campaign is working
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22739617-5014046,00.html
Thanks Julie @466. We don’t fit into any of those criteria, but it’s good to know something is still available for others, however Kafkaesque the route. Good luck with the journey.
Rowan, thanks. So only ten more days of ads to go. Interesting how low key it has been so far, compared to the avalanche of ‘Know Where You Stand’ and Superannuation guff we had to put up with for the last six months.
I heard Kennett and Beattie are on the Brisbane version of Channel Seven on election night.
Can’t wait for the Liberal policy wake, the Liberals are about to be nuked.
#473 – Glen, full marks for fronting up. You’ve got more gumption than your ideological compatriots. (Whatever happened to Alex, I wonder?)
I had the good fortune to shake The Rodent’s hand the other day. I must confess, I was taken aback by how frail he looked. Television hides this very well. But seriously…he is in need of a good cup of tea and a lie down.
473 Glen, which is the biggest winner for you, high inflation, high interest rates or the workchoices lower wages stuffup?
Just saw the Security advert on TV.
You know the one – it’s where they say you should report anything that doesnt ’sound right’ or is ’suspicious’.
I am dobbing in the Liberals.
Hilarious stuff Sean.
Sid Marris must be on the turps to write this tosh:
The silent majority, often missed by the pollsters and the immature campaigners, are, as always the one to watch.
Err how exactly do 100 polls done by 4 different polling complanies keep missing this “silent majority”?
The silent majority is an old piece of drivel from Eisenhower time. Has no relevance now.
490 I’m dobbing in Glen. He’s lost the Liberal Party’s policy on Nuclear power.
Mr O’Keith still practices at law. I’ve heard stories about his cort style but as he’s still practicing I wont repeat them. Has anyone followed up with his election blog? Can’t say I’ve been bothered.
My prediction for the endl of this week.
“Libs claim me to-ism continues”.
“Labor claims the libs arn’t looking to the future”
I’m waiting for the break through from both parties but All I know at the moment is I’ve a lot of mail boxes to visit in the next two weeks.
I don’t think there’s a single line of that Marris piece I can agree with, which is almost a first for me.
Almost a first… except for Miranda’s articles of course. And Piers. And Prof Flint and David Barnett.
And Andrew Bolt. And Imre. And Shananhan on Tuesday mornings and most of the the rest of the week.
But apart from them, almost a first.
Ok here’s my totally been hitting the bottle what is he thinking prediction:
We’ll know the winner this time next week.
The last seven days (3 without ads) will change nothing.
I read the Advertiser today on the bus when heading to Walk against Warming.
Mein got! Between them, the Poison Dwarf, Piers Jabbaman, Andrew Dolt and Janet Meinfuerechtson are assured jobs in the Murid’s future Ministry of Information.
Only 13 days until nirvana. After that, its “Oh what a night, late November back in 07, what a very special time for me, as I remember, what a night!”
That Sid Marris article is pathetic.
He has completely missed the point. People are sick of Howard and think he has stayed too long, and taken too many liberties with their trust, especially during the last 3-4 years. There is NOTHING Howard et al can do at this stage to change that perception.
And the ONLY remedy available to the electorate is a change of government.
I love the image of the tory glen, whistfully dreaming of the white australia policy and full of positive thoughts about john howard as he makes his way through the trendly left wing areas of inner melbourne. he’s a rare bird in these parts.
The liberal tactic is to run a local campaign. no real sign of Howard ect.. I am wondering if anyone has any thoughts as to how that’s panning out in the community? I have heard a mixed reaction in Parramatta and it seem’s to be working for Labor in Bennalong. any one got any thoughts?
Diogenes @ 373
My heart is with you and your family. I saw that last night and almost puked. Have faith, my friend – his race is run. Let’s hope that, in the new dawn, we can redress the wrongs done by this despicable regime.
#208 -
“Love the headlines on the Tel and Sunday Mails around the country. ‘Julia’s Broken Heart’
It may have been an attempt at smear, but it has been spun in the headlines like she is Lizzy Bennett getting taken in by George Wickham.
Pure gold. I’m thinking 90 seats if the Libs keep helping out the ALP this way.”
Oh, come on! Surely even you aren’t that dim – it’s quite obvious this story was planted by the ALP to soften Godzillard’s image. They must be quite desperate to alter those harsh perceptions of her that are coming up again and again in their polling. It is, of course, a lost cause – nothing can improve that vile creature’s image.
Speaking of vile creatures, Lenore Taylor’s presence on Insiders today made me skip it. However, I did see a little bit online and was impressed by the confidence with which Piers suggested that Efficient’s surprise win in the Melbourne Cup could be echoed on election night. I wonder what he knows…
Rowan writes:
“The liberal tactic is to run a local campaign. no real sign of Howard ect.. I am wondering if anyone has any thoughts as to how that’s panning out in the community? ”
Here in McEwen , Rowan, I’m getting the impression that people are seeing through it very clearly. I’ve heard far more people talking about Minister Fran Bailey trying to pretend she has nothing to do with the “Howello/Costard” government than I have about her “good works” (usually actually achieved by the hard work of real community people who have a lot of respect locally, but which she invariably claims credit for regardless).
Essentially it is the sort of strategy used by parties who know they are “on the nose”. I suspect, in McEwen, it is actually doing Bailey far, far more harm than she (or the Liberal strategists) imagine.
Cheers
Rod
For anyone interested in the Peter Andrews story, the ABC’s Australian Story did a two-part series over two years ago. I didn’t see the Sunday version this morning so can’t compare but this one was pretty amazing.
http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2005/s1383562.htm
And for anyone wanting to know why newspaper coverage of the election is boils your blood so much, Michael Gawenda did a great piece on how unutterably boring and micro-managed the whole disaster is. He made some quite telling comparisons with US-style campaigning, where candidates actually have to face real people. I’d give you the link but the SMH’s election section seems to be linking to the Age. D’oh!
Peter Hartcher’s piece on Kevin Rudd the dentist was great too. He took the metaphor a bit too far but it provides a very good insight into why Kevin-0-Heaven is in front.
As soon as the chappies at SMH online stop watching the cricket and fix the link, I’ll try to post it. It will probably do a lot of you good to read some reasoned and impartial analysis after choking on News Ltd tripe for so long.
Isn’t Charles Firth still under contract to the ABC along with his Chaser mates?
I really hope those guys don’t go to a commercial network next year, but I guess it’s inevitable.
Just saw Joe Hockey on Seven News choking on a fly: LMAO
You really are the pits, Kaye. Your vileness is unsurpassed on his site. Go back to your cesspit.
My god, these Liberal ads are awful!
Is it just me who thinks this barrage will backfire on Rodent and Hyacinth?
@501…
“was impressed by the confidence with which Piers suggested that Efficient’s surprise win in the Melbourne Cup could be echoed on election night. I wonder what he knows…”
Are you serious? That lazy gastropod doesn’t know anything. He’s delusional and like most other wingnuts is presently spinning in some parallel universe.
Glen at least is a reasonable bloke one can have a decent debate with: sorry Glen for being so rude to you the other day, it was uncalled for!
Steven Kaye on the other hand: nothing more than a nasty troll!
Labor ads on Channel 7 right now in Sydney: Woohoo!
Just seen a new liberal ad – talking about the waterfronts. You’d hardly even know it’s a liberal ad – no mention of the party or Howard (of course)
It’s all in B&W. Immediately after it they had the new ALP ad talking about Howard retiring – in colour, friendly, much bette rimpact than an obviously old photo of Julia Gillard.
If the Libs can’t skewer Rudd, it’s all over for them (so I suspect it is)
Re 490,
BrissyRod Says:
rotfl ……. Good one BrissyRod
:):)
Mark Twain, link has changed for some reason but the site is still up.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2007/index.html
The Liberal ads are similar to the crap they dished out during the N.S.W state election campaign.
did anyone take notice that when Janette and Therese did their respective interviews, Janette and Howard couldnt resist getting putting the boots into Rudd, but when Therese was asked about Howard she passed and spent her time praising Janette and the wonderful job she had done raising a family and still fufilling her role as the PM’s wife, we can see from that just which family is “nice” and has class.
WTF is happening in the Betfair market???
ALP in from $1.40 to $1.35 in volume in the last 30 minutes
I tested the market by laying off $500 of my ALP at $1.33 and was duly taken within less than a minute.
Someone has a very ALP friendly poll in hand I would assume
Winging wendy on Ch 9 the new one – good. She says I dont get it mr Howard youve had 11 years to do soemthing about education but nada….
Libs stuck on history with the interest rate graph from 1972 leaving out 75-83 conveniently when interest rates were 22% under Rodent.
Now Lib Union ad going on about Greg Combet, Gillard and the waterfront including sexy shot of Julia in shades.
Unions and interest rates two furphies, thats all the Libs can do.
sad init?
Have a look at Bob Ellis’s piece:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2085378.htm
Love the last sentence:
He should tiptoe, I think, very quietly away.
“Steven Kaye” wrote:
“Speaking of vile creatures, Lenore Taylor’s presence on Insiders today made me skip it.”
A pity, Steven. Taylor, a genuinely competent and pretty balanced journo, absolutely creamed “Piers”, who was sticking to the sort of silly rhetorical spin that will undoubtedly cost Howard this election.
I found myself wondering whether Piers is really a socialist plant. It is simply impossible to reconcile someone so out of touch with contemporary Australian reality as Piers with any genuine attempt by the Libs to win this election!
Cheers
Rod
Thanks for the insight Rod.
I was also wondering about those Liberal adds. before the campaign began I wrote on the Telie boards that if I was the lib execs’ I would pull money from this capaign and spend it on the state parties building up the brand when the war was lost.
When I look at the two different capaign’s I see a slicker (more expensive) Labor vs a fairly cheap Lib campaign. So I have a thought that my origional idea wasn’t to much off the mark. Labor bulled 2mill from their 1996 campaign for the above reason after all.
This election is awful
- its making us have to watch commercial televsion
and secondly we are watching it for the ads!
I see Labor is turning up the heat on SerfChoices Mark 2, long overdue! Costello has shown his attitude to workers going all the way back to the Dollar Sweets case, and both his and Minchin’s speeches to the H R Nicholls Society give a lie to their denials now.
When we add to that the nasty plans they have for nuclear sites and waste dumps, and further military disasters abroad, how the hell can anyone in their right mind vote for them?
Dear William,
sorry to breakthe flow, butthought you might like to creat anew open threads on a couple of points:
- the woeful example of MSM reporting ( the prize so far must go to Dennis Shanahan, despite his disingenous question regarding “sorry” – sorry, i still think that was a plant as Howard thought he could parst his way out of history).
the award for most pathetic display of MSM journalism could be called:
the maidens? the kells? the shanahans (a bit obvious, i know), the Speers,
surely it won’t hurt to have our media knowing that the “watchers are being watched”
secondly,
a thread about the best question for the last two weeks:
So, Mr Howard, given you have announced your retirement and will not be Prime Minister within the next 18 months please tell us your vision for the Future?
or
So, Mr Costello, should the Liberal Party retain office how long before will it be before your take decisive action to become PM, and who is your Treasurer, Foreign Minister and other key Cabinet appointees?
If these two questions aren’t asked (or obviously variations thereof) what does this say about the press gallery?
And finally
I hate to say it but this is my haiku (sorry tabitha)
Elected Rudd: 100 days of innovation,and freedom and positive flow
Elected Howard: 100 days of negativity and costello pretention
512
Turning worm
Cheers, mate. You’re a champ.
The Gawenda story is here (brace yourselves, it will take more than five minutes to read):
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/the-last-road-trip/2007/11/09/1194329513399.html
And Kev the dentist is here:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/welcome-to-dr-kevins-surgery/2007/11/09/1194329513453.html
And before you have a fit, it was Dame Edna who first thought up the line. But I think Hartcher has nailed it here for the swinging voters who voted for Howard in the last couple of elections but are tired of him now:
“Like a dentist, Rudd appears to be a calm, competent professional. Like a dentist, he is not a warm figure, not inspiring or charismatic. Like a dentist, he is conservative, not a radical or an ideologue.
And, like a dentist, he seems to be a well-trained, knowledgeable, confident technocrat. The sort of figure you could turn to for an unappealing but important task, such as fixing your teeth. Or running a government.”
@501 Steeven Kaye
Julia will be PM one day.
enjoy.
oops, obviously the awards should be called “the Kellys”
overblown, biased, reductive and fundamentally intellecutally pretentious without the education (please see Gaita this week)
a Kelly love child with Albrechtson would produce: bloody hell, Jeanette Howard! the old dame who wanted to live in Versailles but who will shortly meet le guillotine
Did I hear right? Ch. 7 has got Andrew O’Keefe? As their *election analyst*? What, Mel was too highbrow for them so they had to make it a bit *more* accessible?
I mean for chrissake, why not chuck in the blonde weathergirl and the cast of Dancing with the Stars for the on-the-spot reports? Why not freakin Aggro?
5012 Steven K
Thanks for the measured response.
But does this suggest they were using an ALP script:
“Early editions of the Sunday Telegraph contained an allegation that Ms Gillard had incorporated funds used by Mr Wilson.
The Sunday Telegraph acknowledges that this allegation is entirely untrue. This error was made by The Sunday Telegraph.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22738133-5006010,00.html
No need to whinge just because the smear fell on it’s arse.
Whoa people, let’s enjoy….rabbit.
Sorry, don’t underestimate Howard, as he will try his last option, as there is nothing to lose.
Can’t you guys see a similarity?
523,
Julia may be pm. Howard’s asking to be reelected so he can retire and then we get Costello? Turnbull? Downer? Ruddock? Abbott? who the hell knowns? the Lib factions are not following Costello’s plan if they win the cudos goes to Howard, not Costello so its anyone’s game. That prediction comes from inside the beast.
Julia didn’t have the numbers but will make a great PM one day.
Please explain SCAPER
Howard will eat a rabbit?
last option scaper?
MAD? Mutually Assured Downer?
A rabbit will push the button?
Like 2004 the Liberals are not saying anything about their Industrial Relations agenda for the next term. This gives me cause for concern that they are hiding another round of nasty surprises up their sleeves.
Just saw the waterfront ad, almost fell over laughing. There getting desperate.
I think the Libs next ads should focus on more relevant strikes.
1890 Maritime Strike
1891 Shearers’ Strike (were Labor was formed)
1949 Australian coal strike (oh wait Labor stopped that one)
I can see the next liberal campaign ad, it will go a little something like this.
If you vote labor the bunny gets it.
381 try these :
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/map.htm
http://orgburo.com/elections/electionnight.php
http://www.aec.gov.au/
I heard that Howard may take off the excise on petrol or something. Or that a rabbit will do it for him…or something
Rx I remember the IR policy being out there in ‘04 (bar the Unfair Dismissal extention to businesses over 100 workers). It’s not really their fault that it wasn’t highlighted by Labor, the media or picked up by the voters.
So Howard is now me-tooing the Democrats???
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-to-woo-mums-with-paid-leave/2007/11/10/1194329563882.html
OK I am gay so not entirely qualified for such things, but ….
Does anyone else think Gillard is lookin kinda sexy these days? I caught the shot of her in the supposed smear story on front of today’s Sunday Tele and she looked fantastic. The new look is a treat.
This me toism really anoys me. The Libs are moving so left in this campaign that they’ve run into Labor policy, not the other wy around.
“It wasn’t my fault. I passed General Maths really, but they got the marking wrong. ”
Please lets lay of Janette – she has been very loyal. Could you imagine spending 36 years with Mr Non Core?
Plus she may have seen him in the buff. Enough to induce madness in a lesser mortal.
I can only suggest she had control of the light switch.
@538
Ive always had a thing for Julia.
She’ll be Australia’s kindler gentler brainier sexier human leftwing Thatcher.
#523 -
“Julia will be PM one day.
enjoy”
Oh, you poor chumps! Don’t you realise that terrifying possibility will be one of the key reasons voters will re-elect the Coalition in two weeks?
Please people, let Gillard alone. That teritory is taken by that Zoo mag.
Lose The Election Please Liberals #536
Meet The Press, Channel Ten, 12 August 2007
legacy.ten.com.au/library/documents/MTP1208.doc
We all know what came after the election. ‘Big change’ would be an understatement.
They are very quiet about IR again this time. What are they hiding this time?
Steve Keys,
No offence matey. Julia isn’t scaring off anyone. Costello as PM is actually proven to stain you shirts and rot your teeth.
This was on Channel Nine in Sydney, during the news, just before the sports highlights.
The next ad break they followed up with an ACTU ad trashing Work Choices, but I can’t seem to find a link for that. Maybe someone else can.
As I said, enjoy.
Lose the election please.
I pointed out before the Libs 2004 IR policy.
http://web.archive.org/web/20050522044247/www.liberal.org.au/2004_policy/Sept28_Flexibility_and_Productivity_in_the_Workplace_The_Key_to_Jobs.pdf
What bits did we miss? “A re-elected Coalition will also provide an option for a 5 year collective agreement” ooops missed that one.
You just graduated to confirmed concern troll.
It doesn’t matter what he said Rx. The policy was there on their website for anyone to look at, the press, the ALP etc.
What’s a big change is a matter of words and semantics which we all know Howard is capable of. Take him at his word at your own peril. It’s the ALP and the media’s fault for not picking them up on that and making him promise not to do the things he’s done.
I’m not alone on this one… I note that dembo remarked the other day that he recalled the Coalition’s policy being out there prior to the ‘04 election in pretty much the same form as what they introduced.
Besides, whatever your point taken on mandates is, it’s fair enough to say that a government is given a pretty wide mandate to introduce any policy they see fit and to allow it to be judged at the next election. We have this election to judge the Coalition’s WorkChoices legislation… continually whinging on about them not telling us before the last election (when they really did) is tiresome.
Can someone tell me why the tories think Julia eats babies and think the electorate is frightened by her?
Agreed
I’m working for Mike Bailey on election day too. It’d be great to put in a day for him and then come home and watch Joe concede on national TV. However, I think the most likely result is a very narrow loss for Mike or a wait for the absentee vote.
@551
RGee
Because they are afriad of thinking women.
They prefer that convicted fraud Albrecthsen.
Stephen Kaye – 501 You should listen to Lenore Nicklin more often and you might learn something. She is one of the most intelligent and balanced journos around. Your biased rant is pathetic. On Ackerman, his comparison of Cup winner Efficient with the Libs is simply facile and desperate. Turnarounds like the government need just don’t happen. No party in australia has ever recovered from the current position of the Libs in this campaign. If it happened, it would be the most extraordinary turning in the polls ever. It won’t happen. Labor with 85 seats – Get used to it.
Rowan writes:
“Julia may be pm. Howard’s asking to be reelected so he can retire and then we get Costello? Turnbull? Downer? Ruddock? Abbott? who the hell knowns?”
I wonder which people would prefer? Howello? Howbull? Howdock? Howbott?
Or, if the Libs decide to go for someone in a safe seat after this election, “HowTuckey”?
Yeagh!
Cheers
Rod
Scotty,
Good luck on the day mate. Remember to have the local police station on speed dial, that seat is going to be a hot one for a stint of Pole rage. I for one think if any of the cabinet will loose their seat Hockey will.
If Howard offers paid maternity leave will Rudd match or trump it?
He would have to match it at least surely…
Seeing as it is such an obvious thing to go for, I’m surprised Labor hasn’t announced anything on it already. It opens them up to the whole “me-too” thing again if they decide to do something along the same lines.
Of course, if they trump the announcement with something even better that’s a different matter. But that would cost even more…
I think the fact that Steven_Kaye takes Piers seriously is pretty indicative of how seriously we should all take him/her.
RGee: Because she’s a ginga.
Most people have in inherent fear of redheads – they are playing to it
‘Mee too’ wont lose the election now. It’s too late now. There is the Lib launch then the Lab counter attack then blanket advertising then media blackout then the end.
@558 LEP
it?
RGee @ 551.
They’ll get nowhere attacking Julia Gillard.
She’s been a star performer leading up to & during the campaign. She’s always composed, strong & clear with her message.
Speaking with people I know, the attention Julia had been given has actually made them more aware of her & they’ve been very impressed.
For all the people who are eagerly watching commercial television for campaign ads: http://www.google.com.au/election2007/
Although the problem with this is you don’t know how heavy the bombardment is… You just get to see the munitions.
For the liberal ads on the ports, aren’t people generally sympathetic to the wharfies losing their jobs to scab labour?
Why is it just maternity leave? It ought to be parental leave surely. Although Labor really ought to have announced a paid parental leave policy months and months ago.
They’ve already announced maternity leave as one of their 10 conditions… to which I remember Gerard Henderson saying was completely unworkable and that women wouldn’t be able to get employed. Wonder if he still believes that now…
Howard’s policy spending is predicated on what they think Rudd’s going to do. So I do think Rudd has a paid maternity plan in the wings. It would fit with a general Labor policy position.
Howard will play his card, just as before and I am vigilant, as are most who know it’s not over by a long way.
The last three weeks was nothing but fluff!
The game commences next week and it will get ugly.
Enjoy.
Re: 517 That Bob Ellis article is withering. Piece by piece demolition of Howard’s approach and, I reckon, legacy.
Steven Kaye @501
In less than 2 weeks Julia Gillard will be your Deputy Minister.
Long to reign over YOU.
Timing is an important issue with these ad campaigns. If you start the campaign too far out from the election, then by the election voters will have tuned out the ads, and ignore the messages. Starting too close to the election doesn’t give your messages time to penetrate. The best ads are those that reinforce existing pre-conceptions, and it looks as if Labor and the ACTU are doing that well now with Workchoices. I think 2 weeks is enough time for messages to penetrate, without been tuned out. The Libs are getting no traction with their anti-union campaigns, as unions just aren’t scary anymore, and only older voters remember the bad old days. An ACN poll found that 61% didn’t think unions would control a Labor govt.
LTEP
Major policy warrants major publicity before the election. The onus should be on the party intending the changes to spotlight their policies, not keep them tucked away on the website. What about voters who did not have access to the internet last election. They would not have been able to check the Liberals website, to trawl for every last policy detail on the chance the Liberals did not highlight their plans verbally. I do not recall the rodent, Costello, Minchin etc mentioning wholesale IR changes, do you?. To blame the Opposition and the media etc is just shifting blame and onus from the party that did the dirty on the electorate.
A party that has kept nasty surprises up their sleeve once cannot be trusted to not do so again. Their quietness (again) on IR this election leaves me suspicious of what they are planning. Frankly I do not trust them, and will not again.
You can call that ‘whingeing’ if you like, but in politics, it is about trust, policy, perception – all of them negative for the Liberals in my book. They have blow it.
Triffid – Oh I agree, but why do they think it’ll get them somewhere?
Re WorkChoices – the Lib’s IR ideas were certainly out there before the 2004 election, but what stinks (and will cause the Libs demise in 2 weeks) is that they cobbled together the WorkChoices legislation and rammed it through the parliament without debate. That arrogance and sneakery will see them buried on 24 Nov.
I love how the Liberal ads assume people know who Greg Combet is.
The ALP will win because most people know Howard, Costello, Rudd and maybe Gillard (if they watch the Today Show), Hockey (if they watch Sunrise) and possibly Abbott and Downer (asp if they are from SA).
But even then they would be confused over who does what. When I lived in Cairns in the 90s at one state election where One Nation got a chunk of support, I had to put up with people telling me all night that Pauline Hanson was going to be Premier. They couldn’t grasp that not only was One Nation not going to win, but that Hanson was a senator infederal parliament.
There’s a reason elections have become presidential.
The ALP is tragetting Howard and Costello. That’s it. Easy.
The Libs are targetting unions, Greg Combet, Julia Gillard, Joe MacDonald, Morris Iemma, Mike Rann, unions… anyone missing?
I repeat; if they can’t beat Rudd, they lose.
They can’t, so they will.
btw, if the Libs do win, I’ll be back on the 24th to take my lumps.
scaper @ 566. Exactly what card do you think Howard has up his sleeve?
There seems to be movement again in the betting markets toward Labor. Do we know of any up coming polls in the next day or so?
Re 515,
DonPaullo Says:
The Daily Telegraph here in Sydney has promised a Bennelong special in tomorrows paper. Much more detail than has been given to date and they have promised it will have “surprises” in it. The only thing that can be a surprise about that electorate is if the sitting member is behind in the offical poll lol ………
572. Alex,
The Libs work choices wern’t out there before the last election. their distaste for the unfair dismissal laws were but that’s it. They deliberalty didn’t mention what they wanted to avoid the near catastophy they survived with the GST.
I think the Rudd grab in the last two weeks will be “one rate rise every 15 weeks workchoices has existed”. it brings the Libs heaviest weights together in one easy to understand statement.
Grog @ 573. Good point re Greg Combet. I’d agree that few people would know who he is, so the fact that a studious looking ex union official is pictured on the advertisement would mean nothing to most.
For those who do know who he is, his the image of Greg Combet serves to soften the image of union officials. He hardly looks like a union thug (perhaps more like a union nerd).
Julie, snap.
Rx I just don’t agree that a party has the obligation to outline with the full force of media each and every policy area. A party should definately outline policy on their website, but then choose which areas to take to the people on the forefront of their election strategy.
Once they’re elected they implement any policy they believe ought to be implemented as the party that was duly elected by the public. These policies do not need to have broad popular appeal as a government should do what ought to be done, not what the public wants to be done.
For instance, before the ALP Gallop Government were elected back in ‘01 (I think?) they didn’t publicly campaign on changing laws relating to homosexual people. After the election they went about enacting a lot of changes that ought to have been enacted, but probably didn’t have broad public support… and most definately didn’t fall into any conception of the mandate they were delivered.
To me such a policy is just as important, if not more important, than any industrial relations policy. Are you arguing that the ALP ought to have had it at the forefront of their campaign during that election? Or that they ought to have waited until they had the chance to put it to the public at a further election? No, a government takes the opportunity to enact any policy which they believe is for the good of the state/country. The Coalition believed WorkChoices had merit and so were well within their bounds to enact it.
Now I have many problems with the way it was enacted, but my conception of what a party can do in government is very broad. The Howard Government did outline their IR position on their website. That’s enough.
Re Scaper’s hint.
Peter Brent at Mumble has suggested before that Howard could play the race card 2-3 weeks before polling day. Only problem with this: while it might win over some racists in the outer suburbs, it will backfire spectacularly in seats like Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein, Ryan, Nth Sydney, Mayo, etc.
Yeah, ok, nuff said.
Knock, knock. Landlord here. Kirribili House. Been away.
So, darls, who stumped up for the bond? Your book says “hyena” … jeez, sweets, er, don’t do that … this is business … use the post-it ones …
501 Steven Kaye Says: November 11th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Sure… just like it was the ALP who planted the story about scores so that Kevin Rudd could be more humanized.
Another failed smear by the libs smear team. Don’t blame everyone else because of the efforts of the sleaze unit have come to naught.
It strikes me that there has been a role reversal in this campaign. Normally oppositions overpromise (think Medicare Gold) in the fairly safe knowledge that they will never have to pay for it.
This election is all topsy turvey. The government are spending like Star City heroes, and the opposition are peppering their promises with cleverly placed backout clauses (at least that is one up on Howard in 1996).
How odd the election campaign has become in 21C with maximum computing power and minimum ideology.
The Coalition odds are going nuts on Betfair – out to $3.80.
Someone knows something…
Rudd leads Howard 2 to 1 in new Poll:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22739482-5001028,00.html
Wonder whether the media will make much of a fuss if the Bennelong poll tomorrow shows Howard losing 53-47.
The 52-48 result a week or so ago was largely swept under the carpet (hence little movement in the betting market).
At some point the media is going to say, “wait a minute — Howard is more likely to lose than win”.
If that happens the Libs will sink completely. Imagine voting for a party which might not have a leader at the end of the day?
587: Will Labor point that out?
I mean, imagine if you were concerned about Costello being leader, but comforted by the fact it was 12-18 months away…
That comfort could evaporate if you feel Costello could be PM in as little as 2 weeks!
Thats a disturbing thought.
Rowan 556
Really? All those well-off accountants, businessmen/women and TV stars? They’re going to beat me up? I really have no idea, since I’ve only been living in Sydney for 18 months. Maybe I’ll just tell the Lib voters that I’m from the Western suburbs and that some of my mates live in Campbelltown, and that might be enough for them to leave me alone.
Seriously though, I have heard of people copping abuse and even assault at polling places, so I do take your warning quite seriously. On that note, I was at Mike’s electoral office last week and while there they discussed how to fix their window, which had a crack in it from some projectile that had been thrown at it the day before.
Mike’s team seems to think he’s in with a real chance, though. They were even more enthusiastic, though, about a certain blonde-haired lady in the electorate next door.
The only three polling pieces that could be causing the betting market movement are:
(a) tomorrows Bennelong poll, but honestly – how moronic is the betting market to actually find those results a “big issue”?
(b) ACN might be going early
(c) Newspoll finishes tonight sometime, but they are tight and lately don’t leak.
What Poss? No internal polling causing a big punt or two?
Now that I think about it: internal polling would mostly be a waste of money at this stage.
Coaltion are at $4 to back, $4.30 to lay at the moment. Bizarre. They’ve blown out $0.60 this afternoon.
One big player affecting the market? Or perhaps it is the ACN?
593: Is there such a thing as ‘insider betting’?
Well, Labor’s Betfair’s odds imply a probablity of winning that is north of 75%. This is the highest ever.
The smart money is now getting on. We are now in the end game.
For all the coalition supporters out there, you can back the coalition at odds of $4 on Betfair. Not bad, if you think your side is going to win.
Go on, put your money where your big mouths are.
Or don’t you have the guts?
There is more to our future than politics.
I agree with your diagnosis of our global situation and I don’t want nuclear power stations, but the reality of our situation can not be avoided.
The equipment to drill for geothermal is on a barge being towed here from the US and I believe the first bores will be drilled not far from Lake Eyre.
I’m positive in time the alternate power generation technology will be developed, but there will be the lag time and how we address this is in the hands of the government which is disturbing, considering their non-grasp of long term vision.
I believe the politicians are not taking the climate issue as seriously as it merits and I have been working behind the scenes to raise awareness through the positiveness of The Great Southern Cross Project.
So far I believe I’m making very good progress because of the genuine interest that has been displayed and The Great Southern Cross Consultancy is ready to hit the ground running after the election.
I don’t know if it’s too late for Australia, but I’ve got to try with everything and everyone that I can muster to fight not only for our future, but also our existence and I will be putting my full energy into this.
It is a mammoth task and I am one, but I hope more will come on board to assist, as time is surely running out.
Wish me luck.
scaper… Sun 11 Nov 07 (03:36pm
566,
Scaper, if you can’t put up with concrete information, please be quiet and keep to yourself. You ought to know by now we don’t like to be teased on this blog.
Will the media make a big fuss if Howard looks like losing Bennelong?? fuhggeddaboudit!!! On the morning of his big campaign launch? – it will be huge.
Wow something is happening…
Libs odds:
This morning Now
Sportbet $3.00 $3.25
But centrebet and sportingbet unchanged, so probably just some “samrt” money lol
LTEP The reason they did not go public (as opposed to just a cloistered mention on their website) was that it would have been political suicide. Howard is the IR Coward, waiting till he had slunk back in to the safety of office before revealing the policy that he and Cabinet full well knew would hurt people. It was a despicable act of sleight-of-hand, aimed at: 1) shoring up their business support (who are now p!ssed off with them over the fairness test red tape), and 2) sidelining unions, thus eroding the funding stream of the ALP.
This is one of the major policies that the Liberals have enacted during their entire time in office. Yet, as you admit, they pre-publicised it no further than their own website. What percentage of the electorate go out of their way to trawl political parties’ websites for policy platforms, as opposed to the percentage of the population affected by WorstChoices?
They did the dirty on the people, and no amount of shifting blame to the Opposition the media or disgruntled members of the public ameliorates that.
Scotty,
I had the misfortune of being nearly assulted after Tuesday’s crowded house concert thanks to a moron pissed off that I had a Kevin 07 bumper sticker on. The local commands have also made arrangements to offer some protection on election day. Those accountants and business people have teenage sons (as the moron had a bmw I guess that was the case with me). There is real tension out in the community the same as in 1996 realy. This shouldn’t stop anyone though. the Lib workers are probably paid casuals who voted Labor befor they get to you on the booth but be carefull any way.
Possum 590
I’ll go with either b) or c). Probably b). Only a wacky and far out poll could cause those sorts of movements this far out from polling day.
Unless it’s something totally preposterous like a leadership change for the Libs, or some health issue with Howard.
# 534 Hossen27 Says: November 11th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
That’s Gold.
The important internal polling was done during the week to gauge the rate rise effect.
This weekend there would have been a big round of party polling (as there usually is two weeks out), but it wouldnt have been showing anything different that decent modeling projections of their tracking polls would have shown.
The libs are cutting and running from some seats at the moment, but even that isnt todays news.
I’m at a but of a loss unless one of the public pollsters have leaked and the interest rate effect has been sizeable.
Yes maternity leave is the only card left to play. As far as costing goes I would look at a) statutory maternity leave being 6 months at $250 a week.
This can easily be funded by readjusting the baby bonus to $1000 then 26 weeks at $250. Thats 7.5k all up
Business will be encouraged to pay full wages on the provision that they return to work after 6 months or a year.
He will play this card so Labor needs to get out tomorrow to launch asmall policy and a preview saying there will be something special for maternity payment to be launched on Wednesday. If Howard doesn’t then Rudd can deliver still or a smaller package.
You can’t touch the baby bonus yet because the plebs will pull their support out.
Thanks Rowan. I’m going to wear my Kevin07 shirt anyway. I’ll do that speed-dial thing, just to be sure.
Maybe the Greens HTV person will come to my aid if I get into trouble
Now that Mrs Rodent has decided to publicly attack the rudds, she has become fair game, politically speaking. So I feel not the slightest hesitation to reveal a conversation my mother had with Hillary Clinton in 1999 (?) after Mrs Rodent had ‘organised’ a gathering of Australian women to meet the US President’s wife:
My mum; “I’m afraid that group today wasn’t really typical of the Australian woman Hillary, but I suspect you have twigged that already!”
Hillary Clinton; “I felt like I was in a time warp. That woman is as dumb as dog-shit – at least most of the room could see it too. But that [the function] was insane.”
The ‘that woman’ Clinton was referring to was Jeanette Howard.
Newspoll will be published tomorrow night, and will have finished at around 5pm today. I think ACN would already have been leaked if taken Thur-Sat; there’ll be one out Fri. Maybe the Bennelong poll has Maxine up 55-45. Are Howard’s odds in Bennelong being affected, or is it just the national market? If it’s just the national market, it’s probably Newspoll, or perhaps national private party polling.
Grog @ 598 and others. It might just be a case of the smaller agencies catching up with the big fish. Portlandbet and Sportingbet have had the coalition at 3.30 for a few days now.
Bennelong not moving.
I don’t put a lot of stock in betfair movements, since there is often not a great deal of money involved.
A little birdie told me that Howard will be announcing a cure for cancer at the Liberal launch.
Take that angry lefties!
The great little Aussie battler, and renowned ladies man, Prof Flint told me that it will wedge the ALP and its support base – The Elites, Angry Unionists (i.e non Liberal ones) and Barren Childless Women – into supporting cancer.
Well, this article on Poll Vault mentioned the K07 team being ‘chipper’ and speculating about getting some good polling:
“But sitting now on the plane, I can’t help wondering of the Rudd camp got some good polling in this morning. They all seem extraordinarily chipper today from he boss down.”
That was yesterday….
http://blogs.abc.net.au/thepollvault/2007/11/ive-been-to-par.html#more
A long bow I will admit.
608 El Nino — I agree. I bet the next polls are just more of the same, and I highly doubt that anyone who has access to this info ahead of time would really be surprised. We’ll see, but personally I don’t think there’s any magic new info out there. Just punters starting to get nervous (or confident).
Centrebet hasnt budged, overall and in Bennelong
Ashley what was that link again to that bulletin bloke that has the seat aggregates
Poss @ would it be fair to say that Labor are a good chance at some seats a way up the pendulum, but that some of the ‘marginal’ seats may be showing a bit of inertia, especially in NSW? The balance will be a comfotable win for ALP, but there will be a recasting of what is considered marginal.
Coalition at $3.50 on IASbet, $3.20 this morning!!
Me @ 614 meant PC @ 603
Trubell @606 boy do you know them in high places!!!
Betamax @ 539
Er, being of the hetero variety, I find Ms Gilliard formidable. It would probably be a difficult task in the cot, as it were. One would require training, runs and lots of spinach, close cuddles and humour …
She is tasty, though.
When’s the next poll?
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php
Julia wil make the FHM top 100 if she already hasn’t
I am totally mystified by the obsession some people here have developed with the opinions of punters. Punters are by defintion MUGS, FOOLS and LOSERS. If they weren’t mugs, they would do something useful with their money rather than throwing it away by gambling. If they weren’t losers, then the bookies and the TAB etc wouldn’t be in business. If they can’t pick the results of horse-races (hardly rocket surgery), why do we care about their opinions on politics? As Mr Mumble has shown, all they are doing is following the collective wisdom as derived from the newspaper polls. They know no more than anyone else about who is going to win what, and a lot less than most of us here.
Sorry Julie,
I know my place in the scheme of things.
Back to the Oz and Blogocracy.
Thanks for putting up with me.
Best wishes,
scaper…
LTEP
Have you had a chance to read the Liberal IR Policy from last election yet?
Care to back your assertions?
Bob Elis sez:
Glen, I’m still laughing at your determination to make something out of ‘experience’.
Steven 501
Brilliant post, you summed up Lenore (she is a real bore to watch at least Ackers spices up the debate). At least we had Ackers with his inbuilt lifejacket in case SS Howie sinks on the 24th, his observation at the end was telling with the seniors closing a meeting because of a lack of interest in Maxine in Bennelong. Nice to know Howard still has the oldies vote locked up in his electorate he’ll need them come the 24th.
Still tomorrow will be a very important campaign launch. Expect big cannons on housing and childcare and maybe a different dental policy than Rudd announced today. If the Tories can get some good press out of the event it couldn’t hurt their chance. If anything Howard should narrow in the poll out tomorrow just as it is for Turnbull in that 50-50 2pp poll, i would be surprised if it was not a landslide and Howard and Turnbull lost their seats.
I’m sure you’ll all be praying for Howie to release workchoices II and a nuclear power station near you policy tomorrow but i wouldn’t bet on that.
Wonder if Rudd will give out invites to Keating and Latham for his launch on wednesday and maybe a hug from both of them??? And to the ire of the ALP supporters for the next week i shall post quotes from the Latham diary which appear so accurate about Rudd’s persona and what may lay in store for us should he win on the 24th.
Adam, sometimes people will know if something, like a bad poll or a big scandal, is going to break, and bet accordingly. It’s a bit like insider trading on the stock market, except that insider trading is strictly illegal.
Scaper @ 623,
I didn’t mean to offend. I would gladly read and absorb anything you had to say that was concrete. I just meant that it wasn’t helpful to tease. I have always taught my kids not to tease [I have 4; 21, 18, 9 and 6] and if they have something to say, to just say it. Straightforward is best.
That having been said, I can understand situations like Antony’s a couple of Friday’s back when he could only tell us to “watch Lateline for something interesting” and couldn’t tell us what it was. He was bound by the constraints of his job.
I repeat, kindly, when you have something concrete to tell us, then tell us in black and white and I will be pleased to read it
:):)
Adam @ 621,
So far the punters have picked the election outcomes with more accuracy than the polls.
Adam, as an aggregate, punters always lose. Well informed punters who only make “value” bets can win in the long run. I have. But this relies on placing bets where you can clearly identify that the vast majority of people who have placed bets already *are* mugs and have likely got the probabilities considerably wrong. As in the case of this election.
Oh my god – Julia Gillard wears dark glasses!!!! She must be evil.
These Liberal adverts are just a hoot. Who is the advertising firm? Or was it a project from first year marketing students?
So FWIW, I don’t believe that the market as a whole can predict better than a well-informed punter. Your average punter operates largely on osmosis and the opinions of others. A well-informed punter has a better ability to distinguish good and bad information. Take Shanahan, for example, I’m sure some punters believe his BS and factor it into their calculations.
Breaking News on the SMH (No, not a poll)
“Fraser, Gough blast govt accountability”
Former prime ministers Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam have intervened in the federal election campaign to criticise the Howard government over accountability.
The one-time political foes have written a joint letter on the subject to major newspapers to be published on Monday, News Ltd reported.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Fraser-Gough-blast-govt-accountability/2007/11/11/1194766503806.html
Congratulations Adam. That is the dumbest post (621) that I have ever read by a Labor supporter on this site.
Who was it two days ago when Latham’s article came out that replied to the trolls with ‘Ok now where is Fraser?’. Well done, there’s your wish.
“They know no more than anyone else about who is going to win what, and a lot less than most of us here.”
Party insiders who do more than anyone else bet in these markets. That is why they are interesting, provided enough money is bet (so the individual seat markets are not interesting, but the markey for the overall result is).
“i shall post quotes from the Latham diary”
Great idea. I loved the Latham diary.
Centre Says: “Congratulations Adam. That is the dumbest post (621) that I have ever read by a Labor supporter on this site.”
I agree Centre, but at least it’s smarter than ANYTHING else a Lib has written here.
Snakeboy @488
You shook the rodent’s hand? You know that it will wither and die now, don’t you? The only known antidote is to go out and convert three rusted on Libs to the side of light. Off you go!!
I actually thought Adam’s post was very sensible.
Remember how the markets considerably tightened during the first week of the campaign? Was that realistic?
Remember how the markets changed after the Budget? Was that realistic?
Or is it only realistic when it shows a drift away from the Coalition?
As to the people still going on about the Coalition not telling the public about their IR policy prior to the ‘04 election… I repeat that I believe governments are given an extremely broad mandate to implement any policy they see fit after an election. The fact is there was a policy out there prior to the ‘04 election… I saw it and I presume others did too, and it’s not drastically different to what we got.
I agree with Adam.
The only thing that is certain is NO bookie will lose money on the election.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Keating is there. Latham won’t be – and I guess Fraser won’t score an invite to tomorrow’s launch either.
Please feel free to quote Latham. (keep fighting that 04 election!!!)
Prior in the Canberra Times nailed him:
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/opinion.asp?class=your+say&subclass=general&story_id=1084025&category=opinion+cartoon
Lord D @569 said: “The Libs are getting no traction with their anti-union campaigns, as unions just aren’t scary anymore, and only older voters remember the bad old days. An ACN poll found that 61% didn’t think unions would control a Labor govt.”
Spot on, Lord D. In the print “Sun-Herald” today, David Dale cites a sample of 4000 people taken in late in 2005 on “Australian Social Attitudes” which found that:
There is a qualified, but widespread support for unions among Australian workers, even among those who do not belong to them. Nearly half (46%) of those respondents who said they were not a union member (and did not want to be) agree that without trade unions, working conditions for employees would be much worse, an nearly a third agree that trade unions are very important for the job security of employees. Overall, 79% of the people surveyed agree with the statement: ‘There should be a law to protect all workers in Australia against unfair dismissal’, and 69% agree that: ‘Award wages are the best way of paying workers and setting conditions’, and 52% disagree with the statement: ‘Unions should have less say in how wages an conditions are set’ with only 24% agreeing.
This seems to go a fair way to illuminating why those ubiquitous Union scare adverts for the past few months have not come with cooee of causing as much damage as the Coalition had expected. What a shame that so many of the MSM political pundits endorse Howard and Costello attitudes to unions.
Yes George, I had to make that distinction.
Do we have ACN monday?
Do we have Newspoll tuesday?
“As to the people still going on about the Coalition not telling the public about their IR policy prior to the ‘04 election… I repeat that I believe governments are given an extremely broad mandate to implement any policy they see fit after an election. The fact is there was a policy out there prior to the ‘04 election… I saw it and I presume others did too, and it’s not drastically different to what we got.”
Umm, not sure how much simpler we can make it for you, but… we don’t care… we just wanna see these Liberal scumbags out of office. Period.
these Lib ads are beyond ridiculous.
the Libs are obviously now just reduced to shoring up the elderly vote to at least be left with a rump of a party.
I’m in Victoria….apparently if i want things done now, i have a choice between voting for Kevin Rudd or Stewie Macarthur.
oh the insanity
635,
Matt, that was me actually
…. I know that Fraser in his heart is a closet Labor supporter these days, I just wish he would come out and say so. Even if he doesn’t though, his words will still have impact. If he could find it somewhere inside of himself to go public however, imagine the impact upon the Libs in this election if Fraser would publically unite with Whitlam upon that topic …… or even moreso if he were go solo with that announcement.
The story of Gough and Fraser attacking Howard for Ministerial accountability should (all things being equal) receive at least as much media attention as Mark Latham’s momentary return to the limelight last week. But will it? Nope.
Poor little Rowan – scared of the North Shore blue rinse set.
What a lot of rubbish – the only intimidation and violence that goes on at polling booths comes from the neanderthal, knuckle-dragging, illiterate trade union thugs and heavies who somehow think it’s ok to threaten anyone that doesn’t agree with their perverse view of the world.
More rank, pathetic Labor hypocrisy. Sam Maiden has you knuckleheads so worked out.
Yes George… I get that point. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the substantive argument, on whether the public was informed of WorkChoices prior to the last election. Whether we want Howard gone or not has no place in that argument.
LTEP – spot on – the markets are very jumpy. newspoll gets their ginger up (as they say). Movements up and down a few cents mean bugger.
BUt serioulsy back in June I joked to a mate that if the Lib’s odds got out to $2.50 it’d be all over. Now if they were at that half the bloggers here would be reaching for the panic button.
Sorry, but Malcolm Fraser is just another Tory opportunist. I for one can and never will forgive or forget his actions in 1975! He can go all soft and seek public acceptance now but for me he is just another born to rule toff.
I love the IR policy. It’s fantastic and has single handedly wiped out the libs. All the rest is ballony.
I told a candidate in 2006 that it will win the election on its own (who agreed with me). 46% of People voted for Mark in 2004, that means 46% would vote for humphrey-b-bear. Not that much to make up really.
That Hockey- never misses an opportunity to have a snack.
“Yes George… I get that point. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the substantive argument, on whether the public was informed of WorkChoices prior to the last election. Whether we want Howard gone or not has no place in that argument.”
Oh, there’s plenty of substantive argument from our end mate, you just aint listenin’… Wanting Howard out has EVERYTHING to do with it – the guy is a lying bastard, a far right nut job and a lover of neo-con poo-poo. It’s taken Australian’s some time to get with it, but they finally have.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, no, they (Libs) didn’t explain all the details of SlaveChoices before the last election. Nada.
LTEP
I have posted the url to the Liberal IR policy before the last election. Have you read it ?
Please do and stop your idiotic defence of the lies.
648
Isabella Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Sam Maiden has you knuckleheads so worked out.
…..
Who is Sam Maiden? Has he worked out 7,000,000 Labor voters? What I can’t work out is why anyone in their right mind would vote Liberal – perhaps you should get Sam to investigate this obvious case of mass hysteria.
blindoptimism: “What I can’t work out is why anyone in their right mind would vote Liberal”
Amen.
LTEP, are you still predicting a Coalition win?
Isabella, you probably are Sam Maiden.
centaur: absolutely spot on:
“46% of People voted for Mark in 2004, that means 46% would vote for humphrey-b-bear. Not that much to make up really.”
Anyone care to argue against that? (apart from it actually being 47%2PP)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election%2C_2004
or from people wearing Greens party t-shirts when they are really stinky Tories. time for a purge isnt izzy?
622 Adam Says: November 11th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
They’re also called ‘voters’ adam.
Anybody know if the Liberal Party Launch will be on free to air?
ABC??
El None @ 615
That’s entirely possible, the election will probably re-jig a lot of seats to give us a whole new spectrum of marginal seats and the demographic types that make them marginal.
The link William put up to the ABC story on the seat of Dobell is interesting. It highlights the issue of commuters in this election.
Petrol prices are rising, public transport seems to be getting worse, and interest rates are going out. People are commuting long distances in order to havea home they can afford, but it’s not an easy life, particularly with young children (believe me, I know).
I think some of these issues will help Labor is seats like Dobell, Macquarie, Hughes, Corangamite, McEwen, McMillan etc – I presume there are similar seats in Brisbane, but I don’t know the city as well as Sydney and Melbourne.
In seats like this, roads pork could be popular, but it also wouldn’t suprise me if Howard does something or other relating to petrol prices in his campaign speech.
He has acknowledged there is, indeed, pressure on “working families”, but so far hasn’t made any effort to relieve it, apart from the tax cuts (which Labor matched, anyway).
And I was rather surprised that the people selling wind chimes were voting Liberal. I would have picked wind chime vendors as Greens voters…
Obviously, the Australian Wind Chime Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWCMWU)is to be feared…
Or perhaps they’re covered by the NUW (National Union of Windchimes) or, failing that, the Miscos.
Not sure Glen – would it knock off 4 Corners?
What time is it?
Only the selfish and/or ingnorant vote liberal
Humanistic and intelligent vote labour.
(see if we can smoke tabby out)
While the Liberals were going on and on about interest rates last election, they were sitting on dynamite plans that they knew would financially hurt voters and the Labor Opposition.
This election they are running around trying to scare people out of voting for the other party. Talk about lowlife.
centaur @618
In fact, to coin a phrase, “No one knows what Trubbel has seen”.
Does anybody know for certain:
- ACN monday?
- Newspoll tuesday?
ruawake, exactly what it says is irrelevant.
I suppose you will be jumping up and down if the ALP legislate on a policy area after the election that they haven’t campaigned on during this campaign?
They don’t need to explain all the details, or in my opinion, any detail at all. They’re given a broad mandate to implement anything they want, and the voters cast their vote on the approval of those policies at the next election.
When you think about it… what were we told about before the last election? Not much… does that mean the government ought to have done not much? Election campaigns usually are not full of policy detail, yet governments must legislate as needed.
I’ve already given my example of the Gallop Labor government implementing reforms to laws concerning homosexual people as something they did not campaign on. To me, that was something that ought to have been done.
Similarly, the government may believe the IR changes were something that ought to be done, regardless of public support for it.
There are plenty of arguments as to why WorkChoices is a reason the Howard Government should be gone… I just don’t buy the ‘We weren’t told’ line. I distinctly remember hearing about their IR plans prior to the last election and not being happy with them.
Have just recently got my Kevin07 T-shirt. I’m not a member of the ALP but have had a gutful of Howard (basicaly since children overboard and Iraq) and am just doing my bit to ensure the end of the Howard era.
Was wondering, am I allowed to wear it to the polling booth on Nov 24 when I cast my vote?
“I suppose you will be jumping up and down if the ALP legislate on a policy area after the election that they haven’t campaigned on during this campaign?”
Nope.
“They don’t need to explain all the details, or in my opinion, any detail at all. They’re given a broad mandate to implement anything they want, and the voters cast their vote on the approval of those policies at the next election.”
Agree. Now, Howard out.
Rowan at 629 – so has the rule “the incumbent always wins”
Trevor,
From what I’ve heard, you should be able to wear it in the polling booth.
Isabella,
I am not afraid of the blue rinse and despite what you sy it is true. concern for polling booths in marginal seats is a reality and has been in nearly every election. Please, work a booth in any one of them and see what happens. Political violence is not uncommon in Australia, its just not as common as in other contries or as extreem. Ask the Lib candidate in Granville Eddy Sarkis what he thought of the risk. he hired bodyguards (though nothing occured nor was going to).
Your attack is ignorant, missplaced and un-nesseary. Please make your comments for or against without trying to insult others.
If you want to look like a loser Trevor go for it. I personally wouldn’t be seen in one.
trevor of course you can, as long as you’re not handing out HTV cards
More fscking Bob Baldwin ads!
The ALP ads are generic. When are they gonna even mention Jim by name?
Trevor #672
yes you can wear a Kevin07 shirt into a pooling booth. A candidate cant though. Thats from my basic understanding of the electoral act.
I’ve been dreaming lately.
I’m hoping that Howard stacks it as he goes to make his speech at the launch 2mw, it would completely overshadow anything he says
651
StanS Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Sorry, but Malcolm Fraser is just another Tory opportunist. I for one can and never will forgive or forget his actions in 1975! He can go all soft and seek public acceptance now but for me he is just another born to rule toff.
…….
The thing is, Stan, both men seem to have decided their differences didn’t matter so much in the end and are friends now. That says a lot about them and their attachment to this country. I think Howard could learn something from these past leaders – from their willingness to accept each other for all their respective faults – but of course he can hardly conceal his disdain for either. Howard is so mean-minded and it is this for which he will be remembered.
LTEP
I’m with you – Governemnts do not need to outline everything. But they should not pretend that they did.
Also when it comes back to bite them at the next election they should not whinge like it is unfair.
El Nino, sorry about calling you El None… shocker of a typo!
Centaur_007,
You sure about that?… I was told I could wear my Kev07 shirt to the booth that I am going to be handing out HTV cards
Thommo :”If you want to look like a loser Trevor go for it. I personally wouldn’t be seen in one.”
Yeah, know what you mean, it clashes with that pretty black and red armband you guys wear.
Possum, @674 except twice
so has Eden-Monaro
Yes but you can’t hand them out or look like you are handing them out within 5 metres of the entrance. You have to put them down and go and vote.
“I’m hoping that Howard stacks it as he goes to make his speech at the launch 2mw, it would completely overshadow anything he says”
You know it really is quite sick to say that about anyone. Even someone you despise…..
I doubt you will see too many conservatives wishing things like that on the
Wax Farmer. Better manners I guess…
Dazzamack from Perth #685
I think Centaur means you cant be handing out htv cards in the polling booth itself. so when you walk in there you cant be campaigning.
Re: the concept of “value” in betting. I’ve had several bets on the ALP during the course of this campaign but only when I believe the bet represents “value”. Based on the ACN online poll of ALP 56% TPP and LIB/NP 44% – should lead to 96 seats for the ALP using Antony Green’s calculator.
For the punter seeking value the above equates to an assessed price (for me anyway) the ALP of about $1.57, so anything below that price is under the odds based on my perceived notion of “value”.
In my view I don’t believe I’ll be having anymore bets on the ALP because the value has disappeared out of the market.
I agree blindopt.
I hated Fraser, but he played the game hard and won (Kerr is the one I despise). The older I have gotten the more I realise Whitlam was beaten in a knock down fight (with a lot of help from Joh).
Also Fraser had to have Howard as his treasurer – that’s punishment enough.
Thanks centaur
Rowan at 687,
What were the 2 fails?
turfmeister, do you think there are any value bets left?
On the Westpoll… I have no doubt Labor has lost some support due to their position on AWA’s in some seats.
However I have heard and seen a lot of anti-Rudd BS flowing from The West Australian newspaper and therefore question the accuracy and bias of the polling done by them.
I’m not saying Labor may not have lost support in WA, simply that I can not trust the Westpoll and would like to see a poll by someone else to back it up.
Precisely why is my comment dumb? I agree that smart punters or people with inside knowledge can make money betting, but how many punters are smart, or really have inside knowledge? Very few. The mass of punters are mugs – if they weren’t the whole betting industry would collapse. I repeat my question, which no-one answered: why are the opinions of the mass of mug punters about who will win what at this election more significant than the findings of polls or the opinions of people who study elections?
As Grog points out, Govts can do anything they like when elected. What is wrong is tools like Minchin and LTEP saying the policy was released before the last election when it was not.
Re 651,
StanS Says:
Stan, I was 14 in 1975 BUT lived in America at that point. Getting over Watergate and getting used to Jimmy Carter was my political scene at that age
.
However, I have read heaps about what happened in 1975 here so I know the facts. What I can say now though, is this. No matter what he has done in the past; I subscribe to the school of thought vis a vis the modern day version of the Libs – do anything, say anything, nothing is off limits to get Howard out of office, as long as it is legal.
On that basis, if I had lived in Australia at the time (1975) I would be fully prepared to forgive Fraser if anything he said or did had any impact to digging the rodent out of Kirribilli
:)
lol Grog. I think Howard has been a thorn in Fraser’s side ever since.
I must admit that the coalition at over $4 is mighty tempting.
Centre,
I haven’t heard anything, but I’d certainly expect a newspoll Tuesday (my guess is 54/46)
I’m less certain of a ACneilson, I was really disappointed by the On-line poll release, I wanted the real AC thing.
Isn’t there usually a leak by this time if something is going to be in Fairfax tomorrow?
Re 663,
“Glen Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
Anybody know if the Liberal Party Launch will be on free to air?
ABC??”
Glen, can’t speak to the OTHER free to air networks but 9 said on this evenings news that they will be covering both speeches live (Libs 2pm Monday, Labor 2pm Wednesday)
Is Thommo Denis Shanahan? The evidence for:
1. Loves Liberals
2. Loves Newspoll
3. Never blogs anything but blindly partisan assertions.
4. Thinks Shanahan is an authority on Polls.
5. Writes crap.
Has anyone seen them in the same room at the same time?
rudd is way out in front at the furlong pole, but suspect the winning post can’t come soon enough. no disrespect to David Marr – a good read for wealthy, shit-doesn’t-stink progressives – but he made a goose of himself with his “people are only just switching on” comments on Insiders…
punters want to vote for Kevin NOW, that could change real quick. me, I’m a committed Labor insider living in the impregnable stronghold of Arch Bevis’ Brisbane – but by god I hope the Fairfax snobs don’t somehow blow it for Rudd with their arrogant posturing…but that’s probably overstating their meagre influence, because the rodent is toast
ruawake, what I said is that they did have a policy, it’s debateable how close the policy was to what we have now. I think it’s close enough to call it the IR policy… you obviously think otherwise. Parties of course change their policy from election to implementation as they should do with consultation.
The problem was… all the consultation was on one side (business) with no consultation with the workers.
An election policy is only ever the bare bones. I imagine the ALP policy they eventually implement will be very different to the election policy.
To whinge on about not being told is side-tracking it from the main issue. The issue is WorkChoices is unfair, it has disadvantaged people etc. Whether it was told to the people before the last election is neither here nor there.
All jokes aside, Howard wanted to leave a legacy. That’s all he wanted really. He wanted people to look back and say a yes he got rid of unions and introduced AWA’s. Unfortunately there will be no legacy only stuff ups. He will be remembered as the most hatted unfortunately which is a terrible place really. All the cover ups that will come out after he’s gone will be humiliating.
Possum @ 603 says “I’m at a but of a loss”. Hmmm, interesting accent. Poss isn’t a feral escapee from the land of the long white cloud is he? Nah, must be a typo, he’s got to be native, those smack-downs are pure Australian!
606 Trubble- tasty!
@695 Not in the outright result market, individual seats are a different proposition – however, as I’m not betting on those I won’t be doing any assessing of prices as I have enough trouble keeping up doing the form on the nags.
Adam, all that you say is true, but the argument about ‘betting markets’ goes something like this, when you take a large enough group of people and you ask them the question ‘how do you think everyone else will vote/act/respond’ then there’s a lot of evidence that says they generally get pretty close.
The fact that the bookmakers (almost) never lose simply speaks to the fact that the odds they are offering generally skim a little off the top.
The thing about mug punters is, there’s mug punters from both sides and they tend to balance each other out.
And yes, most punters *are* responding to the polls, well, most are. Some are better informed. Whether this makes any difference, I’m not sure.
The *real* question is, not do betting markets get it spot on, but do they end up getting a less inaccurate answer than polls.
““I’m hoping that Howard stacks it as he goes to make his speech at the launch 2mw, it would completely overshadow anything he says”
You know it really is quite sick to say that about anyone. Even someone you despise…..”
Yes Thommo! Sick, I tell you, sick! I know most people probably aren’t as sensitive as you and I, but I think we should start a campaign against Australia’s Funniest Home Video show.
SIEV XI
Choice Bro!
Can people please send this link around their work tomorrow?
http://www.petitiononline.com/lateline/petition.html
It seems it only accrues signatures when I personally spam it everywhere.
I’m aiming for 1000 by Friday, that’s all. Surely we are connected to at least 1000 people?
697
Adam Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Precisely why is my comment dumb? I agree that smart punters or people with inside knowledge can make money betting, but how many punters are smart, or really have inside knowledge?
….
Adam, I have seldom ever wagered anything, so really can’t claim to know much about betting. I think what you say about individual punters is fair comment: in general no single punter is likely to be able to make a good prediction about an event as complex as an election. But the idea seems to be that when a very large number of people start making predictions and have to pay to do so, the sum of the predictions is more likely to be right than wrong, especially in a 2-horse race. The choice is not just about “Who will win?” but about the size of the payoff if you’re right compared the loss if you’re wrong. But I’m not a punter, so how would I know?
Adam @ 697
the prices in the election betting markets are driven by the insiders, not the mugs.
And the betting markets have been shown to have good predictive power, as long as they are deep enough.
Good to see that Liberal for Paterson – Bob Baldwin is ” Tough on Crime ” especially placed in the middle of CSI.
Believe it or not Growler but Shanahan is not the Libs only supporter. Im just as partisan as anyone else on this blog but I am one of the few here that support the other side. I think Newspoll has been a load of crap all year. With results like 58/42, 59/41 one would have to question their technique.
I dont think Shanahan is the Authority on polls but I would trust what he writes over any of the stuff I read here.
Re 672,
Trevor Says:
Yes, Trevor you are allowed to wear it when casting your vote. IF you work for the AEC in any capacity, whether professionally all the time or just temporarily on the day, you can NOT wear one.
Ordinary voters can wear it without a problem though. This was printed in The Australian a couple of weeks back and I printed it out and will hand carry it with me to polling day for proof if I need it. If you are concerned about it, perhaps if you email the Australian they might be able to supply you with the URL for the article. It was in the “Strewth” column although I couldn’t tell you which day it was printed as my copy doesn’t have a date stamp on it.
centaur_007,
its actually 6 meters but I was wondering if the rule is applied evenly to the hall entrance or the site entrance. anyone else seen the latter?
Speaking of Funniest Home Videos (my favourite show), on the 24th they are running a special show dedicated to old men getting smacked over the head with baseball bats. Coming to a veranda near you!
No LTEP you said:
“I remember the IR policy being out there in ‘04 (bar the Unfair Dismissal extention to businesses over 100 workers). It’s not really their fault that it wasn’t highlighted by Labor, the media or picked up by the voters.”
It wasn’t no matter how you would like to spin it. I have proved it was not so you change tack.
Poor form, you Liberal stooge.
nath, if you take the polls at being realistically about 53.5/47.5 (allowing for some drop off and systemic error), and then you apply a standard deviation of about 1.5 (the margin of error is a lot less than that of the last poll since you have the trend to go by), that gives the coalition about 5% chance.
Even at $4 that’s not value.
Mr Squiggle,
A drift in the betting on Betfair for the coalition from 5/2 to 3/1 in such a short period of time is highly unusual. I would monitor the prices with the corporate bookies from now very closely. I think this is seriously not looking good for the government.
Thommo,
Go and study at the temple of Possum.
You might learn something rather than ignorantly rejoicing in your aimless puerile jottings on this blog.
Possum,
The two fails were 1983 and 1996, Australia seems to be adding 2007 at this stage as well.
Rowan, I think there is nothing to be worried about at the polling booths on the North Shore. I’m deep in enemy territoy, although the deepest booth can get nasty, most booths were ok at the State election (NSW). This time round I’m at a more relaxed booth, although much bigger and busier, but more Labor. Although it is probably a more wealthy area than North Sydney. The only problem was a dopey adolescent that the Liberals brought with them, but some incisive satire and sarcasm scared him off. I suspect the Liberal are so broke they won’t be able to afford the casuals this time round.
Hossen27, Dazzamack, Centaur_007, the AEC person in charge of the booth will let you know what the electioneering boundaries are, however you are not permitted to wear/display any promotional material into the booth, that means T-Shirts, badges, etc – when you go to vote, that material must be covered or removed.
My 2c:
I think Maxine is a value bet at 2.75.
I’m unconvinced that in large markets (eg. national) the betting is primarily driven by insiders. I don’t often see significant movements before polls come out, but often see them afterwards (and often the reactions are over-the-top, not really the response of ’smart’ insiders).
# 652 centaur_007 Says: November 11th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
I’ve never thought about it in that way before, but it’s actually a really good insight into the reality of the liberals polling position. It’s not quite that bad, it’s really the primary of the ALP we’re talking about. But when you have 40% of the population that will vote for ANYONE that isn’t John Howard, you’re in a really serious position.
turfmeister @709, my feeling is that there are some *groups* of seats that taken together are value bets, but it’s getting closer to neutral every day.
Surely it means a major poll has leaked to the campaigns.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a national Galaxy announced in a few hours, to appear in tomorrow’s papers.
HarryH @ 658,
LTEP is keeping quiet about his election predictions. Maybe he just wants to concentrate on policies rather than polls, which I suppose is fair enough.
I’m of course cautiously optimistic and still predict Labor will win by a 2PP of 53% (Primary = 45%) and win 20 seats off the Coalition to end up with 80 seats compared to 68 for the Coalition and 2 Independents.
The big difference in this year’s campaign compared with 1998, 2001 and 2004 is that it’s the PM and not the Opposition Leader who is starting to panic. Rudd might not be charismatic and so far in this campaign has been rather risk averse, but to more and more of the swinging voters he’s looking like a safe pair of hands compared to an increasingly erratic Howard.
In my opinion, the fact that they did not tell the electorate what they planned last time is of great import this election. It cannot just be dismissed as water under the bridge. Just as their interest rates lies of last election are coming back to haunt them this time round.
We see them again being quiet and coy about their IR agenda for the next term. Leading people to wonder what they are keeping from us.
Good on Labor for keeping the heat on the Libs about this. Especially given Minchin’s craven pledge to the HR Nicholls Society that they would take it further if re-elected.
By the way, how out of touch is Minchin. In his address to the HRNSociety, he admitted that WorkChoices was (his words) “violently unpopular”. Yet he felt the need to advance it even more. The guy has to be literally an extremist to be so at-odds with mainstream sentiment.
Pancho – thanks for the heads up ont he ALP arts launch yesterday. I decided to head along and got to have chat with Garrett and Maxine, as well as Julie Owens (Parramatta) who had her launch yesterday with old silver Hawkie. SHe said it went really well.
Got Maxine to sign my Kevin 07 t shirt – it’ll either be a tea towel or a piece of history on 24/11.
Centre @723 – there was some discussion when one of the agencies firmed last week for the govt. If theothers begin blowing out as well, look out.
Re Neilsen – might we get a heads up on the WLIB TV (Agenda) at 9.30 tonight?
Adam, where do I start?
As you know polls provide an indication as to the voting intentions of the electorate. The betting market on the other hand provides the probability as to the outcome of the election.
The betting market is more accurate than the polls, I REPEAT, the betting market is more accurate than the polls because polls along with many many other factors are factored into the betting – and Not vice-versa.
53.5/46.5 blah.. my brain
Didn’t the markets move to the ALP before the last newspoll? (could be wrong)
Not sure if movement means much – it could mean that people think now is the time to get on the ALP before another poll, but I doubt it means a leak
Old Roy was a slippin’ and a slidin’ down the wet footpaths of George St last Thursday in the big wet and happened upon none other that Lord Flint. Now Roy has seen everyone from Memphis to Maroubra, but NEVER, has he seen someone
Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports?
Burgey – wasn’t Rhys Muldoon funny and charismatic? Apparently quite idealistic and intelligent as well. I wonder if he’ll do a Garrett in 5 or 10 years time…
Ashley, you have a point about Maxine. Despite polls coming out giving her better than 50/50 2PP and thus better than 50/50 (in the sum of all possible outcomes), you’d think the price would be 1.80 or less.
There’s some seat betting markets that truly reflect not polls but ideas.
I disagree, $4.00 for the Tories is very, very good, almost to good to refuse in a two horse race.
If i see any Rudd lover wearing a Kevin07 shirt inside a polling booth when i am voting ill have at them a serious go at them i will for doing that. It is a disgrace if you are allowed to do that, it would be like me wearing a liberal party shirt inside a campaign booth it ain’t right.
Pancho – yeah he was great. There’s some seriously pent up anger int eh arts community at the libs that’s for sure.
731
Kiwipundit Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
….to more and more of the swinging voters Rudd’s looking like a safe pair of hands compared to an increasingly erratic Howard.
….
Exactly, Kiwipundit. Last time, Latham was the erratic, voltile choice. This time it is Howard who seems lost and has become impulsive, self-contradictory and desperate.
Tory @741, to take a bet at $4 you have to hope that you don’t lose more than 75% of the time. The coalition are in a lot worse shape than that
I give them <5%.
One thing I have noticed is that movements in odds for one bookie tends to move the odds in other bookies – at least for individual seats.
I noticed this with Robertson – for weeks there had been virtually no movement in the odds there. All of a sudden, there was a plunge on Belinda Neal at Centrebet, which eventually made her favourite. Since then, Neal has become favourite at Portlandbet (after starting at $3.20) and the odds have shortened considerably at Sportingbet.
So (coming from a self-confessed punter’s perspective), the odds aren’t all that smart. After all, we’ve only had 1 poll that’s specifically polled Robertson (and that included figures from Lindsay, Dobell and Paterson).
“If i see any Rudd lover wearing a Kevin07 shirt inside a polling booth when i am voting ill have at them a serious go at them i will for doing that. It is a disgrace if you are allowed to do that, it would be like me wearing a liberal party shirt inside a campaign booth it ain’t right.” You obviously live in the Prahran area so please let me know which polling booth you’ll be at and I’ll be happy to oblige. I’ll be the 6 foot greek with the hairy arms.
mad cow, I suspect even if there is a 53-47 bennelong result (or better) in tomorrow’s poll that Howard will still be given a better than 50% chance of winning in the market. The average mug refuses to believe a sitting PM can be defeated. I don’t deny that the PM’s position is a considerable advantage, but that has already been taken into account in all the polls to date and he’s still losing. If you don’t believe in the narrowing nationally, why would you believe it in Bennelong?
Even if you don’t believe the polls fully, surely she should be rated around a 50% chance (1.85 ish).
Which seat are you in George, Higgins or Melbourne Ports?
You wont be the only person ill have a go at if you do this the AEC staff will get a massive serve from me if they allow this cheap underhanded crap to go on.
741
Tory Crimes Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
I disagree, $4.00 for the Tories is very, very good, almost to good to refuse in a two horse race.
…
This suggests the bookie has taken some large money on Rudd and is trying to attract some balancing wagers on the coalition. Bookies have to balance the monies they hold, otherwise they will in fact eventually lose.
Tory, if you’re up for a good long shot, try betting against Hockey at $8
@741 $4.00 for the Tories is good value IF you believe they’ll win, to my mind that’s a very big IF.
Observer @726.
Wouldn’t it be a beautifull scene to have the liberals standing up for their beliefs rather than paying other’s do do so?
Geln, I’m in Higgins.
Glen 742
The disgrace would be seeing some right-wing loon like you in a polling booth. I would have to do the only humane thing, and put you down out of the sight of children.
Well then you’re out of luck mate i’m in Melbourne Ports, though i bet you’ll get a ripe good one from any tory with some balls in Higgins.
Centre – that’s fine for the main game market, but most of the individual seat markets are too thin. To get the benefit of the wisdom of crowds, you first need a crowd!
for your interest heres the rules for polling day.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/scrutineers_handbook/2during_the_polling.htm
Anybody seen Bob Baldwin in any of his ads?, is the reason he is to big to fit on a widscreen tv?
George I’ll be the other 6ft Greek benching 300lbs.
Glen @ 742,
The Australian checked with the AEC. ORDINARY voters are exempt from the rules that apply to AEC staff on the day and candidates from campaigning [Abbott trying to get into vote in 2001 wearing a "Vote 1 - Tony Abbott" shirt into the polling place. He had to take it off as he was the candidate]. AEC has confirmed that ordinary voters are exempt from the rules. I will repeat it a third time if I need to
…..
However, as I suggested to the other PB earlier in the thread, the page I printed out that day from The Australian (for proof, in case I need it on polling day) doesn’t have a time/date mention on it. It was in the Strewth column a couple of weeks back. You would have to research with The Australian if you wanted to get the exact reference.
I could hand type it in but that wouldn’t do anyone any good either since it sounds like some of you want hard proof.
But since the AEC has said ordinary voters are exempt, perhaps you or anyone else can check with the AEC to verify that? Since they issued the original ruling which The Australian reported, they ought to be able to verify it again for your reading pleasure
:):):):)
SL @746, I’m predicting Robertson
749
Glen Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Which seat are you in George, Higgins or Melbourne Ports?
You wont be the only person ill have a go at if you do this the AEC staff will get a massive serve from me if they allow this cheap underhanded crap to go on.
…
So full of huff and puff, Glen. You are boxing with a hypothetical or even imaginery provocation.
Glen get a life!!
Well it’s a disgrace for any side of politics to engage in this cheap underhanded and disgraceful acts. Well Julie the AEC will get a big serve from me about this, its wrong to allow campaign items into a polling booth!
as a lifelong gambler, now reformed, i can assure you that a betfair drift from 3.30 to 4.00 in an hour, at this stage of the election is indeed significant.
Hey George, what do you think is happening in Higgins?
bob baldwin.. he’s fighting for paterson!
god.. who can I strangle.
“756
Glen Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Well then you’re out of luck mate i’m in Melbourne Ports, though i bet you’ll get a ripe good one from any tory with some balls in Higgins.”
And it’s come to this … that even Glen can’t identify by name a Tory with any balls in Higgins.
3 words Glen, vinegar and piss.
Possum’s right (what else???) about the individual seats in the betting market. They are way too thin. For example, the day we had a number of people here join up and whack a small wager on Maxine, she shortened from $2.80 to $2.60. There could only have been a handful here who owned up, some lurkers, and a few mates, but over that short period her odds moved. They’ve now crept back up
Possum’s right (what else???) about the individual seats in the betting market. They are way too thin. For example, the day we had a number of people here join up and whack a small wager on Maxine, she shortened from $2.80 to $2.60. There could only have been a handful here who owned up, some lurkers, and a few mates, but over that short period her odds moved. They’ve now crept back up
Glen promises a tough time from “any tory with some balls in Higgins”. What are they going to do? beat you with their unmbrellas?
Dobell – Ken Ticehurst and Robertson – Jim lloyd advertisements have just had a run on 9 NBN. They are running with Liberal logos in comparison to Bob Baldwin without Liberal Logo.
Yes, how dare voters wear clothing of their own choosing. Geez, next you’ll be telling me this is a democracy.
centaur_007 Says: “George I’ll be the other 6ft Greek benching 300lbs.”
Yasoo re manga. The tous katharisoume stes 24.
Betfair moves quickly because there isn’t much money “in the zone” at any one time. It’s already back to 3.7 to back the Libs, so I don’t reckon the fact it went out 4.0 a bit earlier is that significant.
Just a point on election day.
George, 747,
If you did what you suggest you’ll be violating their freedom of politial speach and association. The officer in charge could have you charged with a supreme court hearing date looming in the near future. They sent someone to Jail for advocating a donkey vote on election day before and that was technically legal at the time.
Julie Says:
He has come out and condemned Howard for ministerial irresponsibility, he has supported getup, he said not a word when I think it was Hawk said he Frazer and Whitlam tried to pull the nation together, Howard is trying to pull it apart. I think Frazer has made it pretty clear he is not impressed.
There has to be moderates left to rebuild the Liberal party, they all can’t just go off and join Labor. We do need a party to take over when power corrupts Labor. In it’s present state the Liberal party is unelectable.
Oh, put it back in your pants Glen.
I just thought you’d like to know that the Rove McManus show has just had two goes at the rat. First one was about sorrygate (made him look like a total goose); second one was not clear – the kids ran in and told me they were ‘laughing at Howard again’.
I think quite a few of the punters watch it … lots of lib ads on but Rove and gang attacking the rat is priceless
Betting thing, There are clearly absolute nutters out there, look at some of the ALP seats, people are backing the libs, I mean they might be paying 6.50 but what does it say about they inbred sibblings of the Lib candidates that they would throw away the hard stolen money from daddy’s Swiss bank account.
…cont’d
Maxine has crept back up to $2.75.
Also, there’s obviously a couple of big ones on the Rodent.
Re Kevin07 tshirts. If you are working at a polling booth, for any party, you cannot wear any political identification when you go in to vote at that booth or to speak to the electoral officer inside the booth. In all elections I have worked on, local, state and federal, I have always removed all party identification, even when scrutineering. Cheers!
And another one, just then … rat attack, that is
The way the Tories go on and on and on with their stupid scare campaigns, they would have to be the cowardliest lot imaginable. Trade union officials – boo! Hide under the bed, Libbos.
Sorry George, I think I was referring to Glen.
Boll that’s fine believe what you will but i am not a cheap bastard who’ll use underhanded tactics to try and influence the election. I would be just as angry if i saw a tory wearing a Howard shirt when i am voting it ain’t right far as im concerned.
Boll – you are a sad person for resorting to personal cheap attacks i almost pity you.
VoterBoy – i don’t live in Higgins, but Deputy Dawg at least has a set something Wayne Swan or Kevin Rudd can say me-too on mate!
Probably a coincidence. A friend of mine put $1200 down on Maxine the night before and it didn’t move an inch. I’m sure we moved it over the line, but other punters probably “softened it up” for us.
I don’t have the figures to hand, but I believe there’s quite a bit of money in the Bennelong market. Much much more than in other individual seats anyway.
Glen says:
“If i see any Rudd lover wearing a Kevin07 shirt inside a polling booth when i am voting ill have at them a serious go at them i will for doing that.”.
Glen,
you must by now be seeing that this is all about a lot more than T Shirts!
My own suspicion is that even Murdoch has given up on Howard et al, or, more likely, switched to the other side.
You simply don’t let buffoons and colonel blimps like Albrechston, Shanahan and Akerman speak for you if you want to win an election. They inevitably alienate more people than they win over. Murdock has a few far more persuasive people in his stable. He isn’t using any of them. Instead he lets the dingbats carry the can.
I reckon if you see someone in a Kev07 T Shirt, and you are hooked into the ”
profit maximising” view of life, your best bet is to make a bloody good offer for it. Heck, it may even be worth as much as a ‘72 “It’s Time” number in a few decades time!.
Cheers
Rod
nath@773 – I don’t know about the brollies, but you’ll certainly get a stern looking at young man!
And Glen, I don’t remember your sense of moral indignation when Howard attempted to disenfranchise young voters by changing AEC regulations. If you’re a stickler for the rules and ethical behaviour, serve us up a piece about that.
Hi mad cow. Higgins will be very interesting. There is a large Green vote here and not a bad number of Labor supporters either. There’ll definatelt be a sizeable swing away from Captain Smirk (especially cause he’s highly visible with the turd as the tag-team-leader), but I doubt enough to unseat him. You never know your luck though. We have a five year old, and we know many mums through primary school this year that will be voting Labor for the first time in their lives.
Glen, underhanded tactics to try and influence an election.. you mean like closing the electoral rolls early?
I know it’s off topic but I thought this was amusing.
.
.
.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jnPOOa4wfL2JNNG08Bxd0j3qwIfgD8SR74400
Spanish King Tells Chavez to “Shut Up”
By EDUARDO GALLARDO – 7 hours ago
SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) — The king of Spain told Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to “shut up” Saturday during a heated exchange that soured the end of a summit of leaders from Latin America, Spain and Portugal.
What are the odds that no Tory in Higgins has any balls? I heard they had blown out to $17.90, but I can’t confirm it. Anyone else?
That’s interesting Ashley, where do you get the figures for the betting from, other than the odds?
I have to voice an opinion here. Though I have said the betting is a fair indication. I would rather betting on elections be banned, it has the potential to enchorage vote rigging.
CL de F – he had a go a Rudd last week about the earpicking.
Possum,
Contrary to popular belief, with the fixed odds system which the bookmakers and Betfair operate (Note: not the TAB), the total amount that is actually wagered is irrelevant. There are three main factors which influence the prices; in order:
- Information.
- Opinions.
- Large bets.
Note: The vast majority of small bets are ignored i.e. mug money. Also if you had a very small bet with me and if say Thommo had a large bet with me, your bet would hold more weight because of the superior knowledge behind that bet.
Is anyone else sick of seeing the exact same clouds float behind Paul Kelly’s head on that ‘live’ backdrop on Insiders every Sunday?
KR,
i heard Gerard Daffy, the boss at centrebet, say that the last 2 mondays a $10,000 bet has been placed on Rattus by the same punter.
option 1) a punter who thinks he will win
option 2) a rusted on hoping he will win
option 3) someone trying to give the impression he will win.
$20,000 into that single market will keep Rattus in the red.
765
Glen Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Well it’s a disgrace for any side of politics to engage in this cheap underhanded and disgraceful acts. Well Julie the AEC will get a big serve from me about this, its wrong to allow campaign items into a polling booth!
….
a serve from you? from crosby/textor? tsk, tsk. they will for them hills.
This may have already been discussed but has anyone followed this position of the ALP to it’s logical conclusion.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22733609-5014046,00.html
The ALP is basically saying that if the minor parties try block the IR legislation then they will go to a double dissolution. If a double dissolution is called the minor parties will want to party like it’s 1987 (the last double dissolution) because they will all pick up more senate seats. Who knows if there’s a double dissolution, god forbid, the Dems might even get a seat.
George @792, Im tipping Capn Smirk will suffer 2 to 3 pc above the state swing.
Ruddock on Agenda with Spears …….. <no poll leaks as of yet.
I’m pleased about the t-shirt ruling. I had t-shirt made up today with “I voted for John Howard” on the front and “May the Lord have mercy on my sinning soul” on the back, based on a suggestion from a few days ago. I plan to wear it to the booths and hang around for a while.
On the Betfair “plunge”, a single very large bet would have been made with Betfair. They would increase their odds until they were able to “lay” the bet, ie re-bet at the same odds with another bigger agency. Sorry to be a killjoy.
Grog – I guess he’s being even handed …
Centre, if that’s correct, then how are the polls for Bennelong in any way consistent with the price on Maxine, except that big money is being put on the PM.
It all seems a tad illogical, at least to me!
mad cow Says: “George @792, Im tipping Capn Smirk will suffer 2 to 3 pc above the state swing.”
At 8.8% currently, that would definately eat close to the mark.
Apropos matters of a testicular/electorate nature, it also appears that those of the Member for Bennelong are kept under lock and key, in a very attractive harbourfront mansion situated in the Federal electorate of North Sydney. The keeper of the key is a three-headed ogre called Hyacinth, and legend has it that she will only return the spherical objects to their former owner so long as he can guarantee that she (Hyacinth) can remain in the mansion until the end of time.
According to mythology, the Gates of Hell will be opened if Hyacinth has to move, and she will consume the bollocks in a fit of rage and fury not seen since the last Lateline appearance of that other mythical figure Dollydowner.
Bennelong will shift tomorrow. Get on now! Is it not said that tomorrow’s poll will confound the established wisdom? Max is great value at $2.60-$2.75. Even at $2.50 she’s a great bet.
And Isabella, if you’re still lurking – I don’t know why you’d bother to hang arounf this blog if you hate us all so much. Or do you have that Tory sado-masochism thing?
Just asking.
Someone mentioned Albert Langer before. Utterly different. The AEC had a supreme court injunction ordering him not to advocate duplicate preferences. He breached the order and so was in contempt of court. Judges always get antsy when their orders are breached.
I guess if the Liberal party have tucked away in a dark room somewhere in a corner in a drawer a policy for Concscription, we can’t complain about it if they then implement it after an election? They have a mandate of course, and policy was there, so there.
OR if they had a policy tucked away and didn’t speak to during an election campaign that re-establishes the White Austarlia policy..then ditto.. or re-introduction of the death penalty or, canceling medicare etc… they don’t have to mention it or inform the public.
Any policy that makes a fundamental change has to be put out front and talked to. If Howard ran with WorkChoices as a policy in 2004 he would have got thrashed at the Polls. AND we know from his biography that he did not have any such policy until after when they all ran around and developed one, one they knew was wrong and was going to hurt the Australian worker.
To push the line that Howard has done no wrong because he may have had something tucked away in a corner regarding a fundamental change to the rights of Australian workers, is simply to act as an appologist for the Liberal party, and it can have no other purpose than that.
Howard deceived all Australians with a hiddden policy that revealed that he sees them as nothing more than worhtless scum. A law that was thrown out by the Surpreme Court in Canada.
And we know that Costello thinks the only IR law in Australia should be a minimum wage, but I guess after a while he would get sick of that too. AND Howard in the 1980s said that we should abolish the minimum wage – and had to recant on the ABC.
There has been talk of a Daily Telegraph bennelong poll for days and the ’surprise’ it is suppose to contain.
I just cannot see a murdoch paper sitting on polling that may be damaging to rodent and then turning around and releasing it on the very day of the libs campaign launch.
Release good polling for the libs under such circumstances, yes. But not the other way around.
Unless Rupert has made a call to labor ?
We will all know soon in any case.
In Higgins we had a 2 hour walk through Chapel st and Prahran Market with Barbara Norman and Wayne Swann. It went smashingly.
One thing I have to say is the brand recognition that the libs have given us is amazing. You couldn’t buy that marketing for billions. People were shouting out of cars go Swanny, and people running up in the street. Okay 20% was bad response but they still recognized him.
Cast your mind back to 1996 and tell me anyone new any coalition cabinet. Now Roxon, Gillard, Swan, Garrett etc are household names.
The swings in Labour held seats will be huge 10% plus, as well as the marginals.
Interesting HarryH, but is someone also doing the same at Sportingbet too?
It’s across all the bookies, and it can only mean that the punters are more sure of the Rodent than the pollsters.
Question is: why?
What other information, except perhaps historical precedent, is there to think the Rodent will scrape over the line?
It’s sure got my interest, and more than just for the, ah, pecuniary interest!
I thought I’d give Sam Maiden some hubris to write about, so I thought I’d have a go at picking the first Rudd Ministry. Tell me what you think.
Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd
Treasurer: Wayne Swan
Foreign Affairs: Bob McMullan
Health: Nicola Roxon
Environment and Climate Change: Stephen Smith (sorry Pete, I thought you’d do well but you’re just a little out of your depth)
Education and Training: Greg Combet
Employment, Workplace Relations and Social Inclusion: Julia Gillard
Attorney-General: Bob Debus
Finance: Lindsay Tanner
Defense: Robert McClelland
Trade and Industry: Craig Emerson
Water, Resources and Energy: Chris Evans
Human Services
Transport and Infrastructure: Martin Ferguson
Communications and Information Technology: Anthony Albanese
Primary Industries and Regional Services: Simon Crean
Immigration, Integration and Citizenship: Penny Wong
Special Minister of State and Commonwealth-State Relations: Tony Burke (I think this could well be a new Cabinet position in a Rudd Government)
National Security, Justice and Customs: Joe Ludwig
Ageing, Disabilities and Carers: Maxine McKew (did ya get that, Sam?)
Veteran’s Affairs and Defense Procurement and Personnel: Arch Bevis
Assistant Treasurer, Revenue, Competition and Productivity: Chris Bowen
Small Business and Tourism: Jan McLucas
International Development Assistance: Joel Fitzgibbon
Local Government and Territories: Kate Lundy
Sport, Urban and Multicultural Affairs: Stephen Conroy (a concession to common sense – I just can’t fit this lump into Cabinet)
Superannuation, Banking and Financial Services: Nick Sherry
Arts, Conservation and Heritage: Peter Garrett (let him get the hang of things with the soft side of Environment – saving forests and whales)
Innovation, Science and Research: Bill Shorten
Thoughts?
When there is general agreement that Bennelong is close/too close to call it does seem strange that is is 2.75 – 1.40, but I suppose it would be a bad look for the PM to be anywhere near evens with Maxine. I’ve don’t bet but had to put a ton on her just so I could say to the Grand kids, ‘well sonny when the Rodent lost office and his seat, your gran and I drank Bolinger.
Hi there VoterBoy. I see you’re up to scratch on your mythology. I wonder of you could fill me in on the contemporary analogue for the golden fleece story – Kevin and the Alponauts … battling fierce one eyed press monsters – hacking through the fields of the dead Ministers Ruddock, Andrews et al – until finally they pinch the prize – by 89 to 59 with a couple of ghosts in the cross benches.
F*#k, i wish it was 13 days hence. It would be all over.
Dazzamack, please calm down a little. Your last comment about Glen has been deleted.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
centaur_007 Says “In Higgins we had a 2 hour walk through Chapel st and Prahran Market with Barbara Norman and Wayne Swann. It went smashingly.”
Hey centaur, what time was it? I was up in Orange with the wife at the Windsor end of Chap, having brunch (which ended up becoming brunch after a bottle of Billy)
KR — sorry can’t remember the figures for the amount of money bet, but it was pretty big in Bennelong and obviously very large on the national market.
Agree with Centre that the amount of money bet already is not that important. But it does give you an indication of what is considered to be a “big” bet, and force a change in the price. Certainly, very thin seat markets will move in response to just the odd thousand or two bet, whereas popular markets such as Bennelong require larger bets to move. It’s the relative flow of money (for vs against) within a period of time which will determine whether the price needs to be shifted. At least that’s how I understand it.
# 765 Glen Says: November 11th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Why don’t you get your daddy to yell at ‘em?
The best bet has surely got to be Bennelong because Howard’s personal wealthy mates, if not his political advisers, will just keep punting a few thousand dollars of their pocket change on their Hero whenever one of these exceptionally small betting markets shifts enough to cast a shadow on Howard’s invincibility. It’s peanuts compared with the megabucks that Team Howard spends on MSM adverts for extremely valuable publicity.
I’ve been a small bet gambler for 20 years, and I’ve never seen anything as badly disconnected with the real life probabilities as McKew’s odds.
Dave, Rupert cares about selling papers and making money. If a story that hurts the Libs will do that, then run with it baby!
Sportingbet has Libs at $3.30, ALP @ 1.32. No change for some time.
Woah! Here’s a photo of Turnbull impersonating Ruddock:
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5745276,00.jpg
Thanks for the clarification Anthony.
Punter @ 804. What Labor’s doing is putting the Greens in a pincer. There are some unions that want Labor’s policy changed, and if the Greens get the balance of power, will lobby to have ‘helpful’ amendments moved. By Labor saying they won’t accept minor party amendments, they pressure the minor parties to let the bill through as is, or force workers to live under the old industrial relations laws. Labor can say it’s just implementing its mandate, and not going beyond what it promised in the campiagn. It will be a matter of who buckles first, the Greens or the internal cohesion of Labor. They don’t have to have a double dissolution, just turn the howitzers on the minor parties.
Grog Says:”Dave, Rupert cares about selling papers and making money. If a story that hurts the Libs will do that, then run with it baby!”
Exactly Grog. Rup doesn’t mind snuggling up to the Communists in China, as long as their a big wad of money at the end of the hugfest.
George 11 to 2 but we started at Tony Luptons office. Yes Billecart is choice Champas if that’s what you mean.
George are you committed on polling day? If not come and help me for a few hours. I am a booth captain.
First confirmed sighting of Senator Palpatine this campaign.
I thought he must have been being kept in Woomera or something.
Yes, agreed Ashley, but the very odd thing about the odds, (so to speak), is the glaring difference between the polls and the punters.
Something is out of whack, and the poll numbers are way off, or the punters are way off.
Guess we’ll see, huh?
(I’ve been thinking she’d start moving in after the rate rise, but in fact went slightly the other way! Ah, go figure, as they say!)
Doesn’t a double dissolution with its smaller quotas in the senate tend to favour the minors? If so, why would a double dis threat worry them?
“its wrong to allow campaign items into a polling booth!”
Like how-to-vote cards?
It’s going to be tough for Glen to memorise the Liberal how to vote cards, especially the one for the Senate.
Still, that’s what you’re going to have to do, seeing as how you’re not going to being into campaign items into a polling booth.
By the by, back in ‘72, some Labor voters wearing It’s Time T shirts weren’t allowed into the polling booth by over zealous polling officials (probably relatives of Glen’s). The law was clarified after that.
Betting on candidates is a bit of a disappointment really. If the punters realy believed in their candidates they would give that $20′000 to the candidate! That money would go a long way to making sure their candidate has the best chance.
Antony, while your there, do you have an e-mail address that I can reach you at?
I think it Charlie,
I’d love to see Lindsay Tanner in something really high proifle though, Maybe like Foreign Affairs.
CL de F, this is like watching Geelong win the Grand Final, Its three quarter time and the Reds are Winning 55-45, which in Footy speak is ‘Flogging” the other rabble, Enjoy, its going to be a long time before such an absolute hammering takes place.
K Removals,
Big money may not necessarily have been bet on the Dessicated Coconut. It could well be that the bookies, or their staff, or their connections, actually believe that the Rodent has a greater probability of holding his seat than what the polls idicate.
Antony, thanks for the comment on the double dissolution posturing – it’s good to have you around to translate Shanahan’s articles into English. At this point, the Greens have indicated that they would rather pass Labor’s IR policy than leave WorkChoices intact, so it would seem to be much ado about nothing.
Centre at 800
The amount wagered is pretty relevent in one respect, because you can’t actually put a decent slab of money on some of the thinner seats (actually most of the seats) without not only being forced to accept a lower price, but moving the price to *some* extent on those thinner markets as a result.
But that aside, the betting market accuracy theory is premised on the wisdom of crowds with the emphasis on “crowds” because:
(a) a crowd prevents any individual bet (ceteris paribus) from making much of a difference to the odds regardless of the knowledge or money behind it. So it prevents gaming (which is what I think a couple of Lib branches did in week 1 of the campaign)
(b) Bookies cannot always decipher the difference between punters with good knowledge and punters with bad, so having a “crowd” allows for at least a semi-strong “efficient market hypothesis” to play out, rather than bookies to attempt to judge the outcomes of an industry that have far more knowledgeable players in it than themselves.
The main game market too seems to suffer from the affliction that at any given moment it knows what its doing, but any given *movement* in that market over any necessarily short period is not necessarily accurate.
It pretty similar to the herd behaviour (moooo!) that faddish stocks on the stock market seem to suffer from.
Antony, Bob Brown has already said he will vote with labor so that workers are not forced to remain under work choices.
Not bad Charlie.
You don’t think Ludwig will keep Attorney General?
Weren’t there whispers about Albanese getting environment?
I like McClelland, but Defence looks a good bet.
792 George Says: November 11th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
I live in Higgins (go to the Prahran markets every Saturday), and I didn’t live here at the last election. I’ll be voting ALP.
I’ve been saying it for a while now. Peter Costello should be very worried.
Rowan, the difference with the Bennelong market is that its symbolic for the whole country. They don’t want people to have the impression that Howard is losing his own seat because that will force people to think about Costello. Hence 10 grand or so now and then is good marketing.
centaur_007 Says:”George 11 to 2 but we started at Tony Luptons office. Yes Billecart is choice Champas if that’s what you mean.
George are you committed on polling day? If not come and help me for a few hours. I am a booth captain.”
Bugger, missed you guys. Oh well, sounds like you had some fun on the walk
Yep, Billecart, but we don’t often do it, as it’s pricey. Have you tried the Bouvet Ladubay Saphir Brut Vintage? Not as good as the Billy, but French and only $19.99 a bottle!
I’m not committed on polling day. Would love to help out in any way possible – let me know how to contact you.
Grog & George – hope you are right.
I want Maxine to thrash rodent as well
I just smell a rat……
According to a poll taken immediately after the 2004 election by Newspoll on how the undecideds broke, the best I can work out was something like a net 59/41 flow to Latham’s Labor, after allowing for 60% preferences [45% of the people who made up their mind in the last week voted for 'Other'].
You can find the poll on the Newspoll website – maybe one of the maths people here can work it out.
One other thing that has to be said about betting markets is, it still remains the case that very wealthy people (the kind who consider 10K pocket change) overwhelmingly are rusted on Tories. I can’t prove this bias, but I think its there.
Dave @ 843, I know. I’m sure the ETU and others would want the Greens to try, but the trap being set was pretty obvious.
Grog – I thought Kelvin Thomson was a gap-filler for either Debus or Dreyfus. Ludwig is doubly so. Albanese is a possibility in Environment, but I think Rudd will go for someone safe, sure and steady after Garrett’s difficulties. Smith is the man if he does so.
Timbo – I’d like to see Tanner in Treasury myself, but Rudd will not renege on his announcement that Swan, Tanner and Gillard would retain their current portfolios.
Incidentally, I left off Jenny Macklin (Family and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs) and Tanya Plibersek (Human Services, Housing, Youth and Women).
Whitlam and Fraser have joined forces to criticise the Coalition:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22741236-5001028,00.html
That’s when you know you’ve gone too far, when these blokes are teaming up against you.
Re T Shirts
I had thought Glen would be wrong on this (free speech and all that), but he may be right in that wearing a Kevin-07 T-Shirt into a booth may contravene s340(1)(e) of the Electoral Act in that it is a ‘printed notice or sign’ within 6 metres of the entrance of a polling booth.
I am aware (through googling) of people being spoken to for wearing Union t-shirts at the last Federal Election and some parties are advising their campaign workers (free citizens all) to take off or cover up badges, T-Shirts etc.. when they go in to vote to avoid trouble with the officials.
Certainly, if you are an election official or scrutineer, you can cop a $1000 fine if you wear partisan material.
You may also cop some flak from the odd over zealous polling official if you wear something as overt as a Kevin 07 T Shirt, but really where do they draw the line?
Who decides whether an anti-war T-Shirt is illegal? A pro environment T-Shirt? An anti-Greenie T-Shirt?
Spiros: There is a $500 fine if you leave a how-to-vote card in a polling booth (s335 of the Act) http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s335.html
FTP @ 839. As it happens, I am a Geelong supporter. I was at the grand final. It was fantastic, and more than made up for 1989, 1992, 1994 and 1995. Well, nearly. Port were totally shell-shocked. Which is what I’m anticipating on the 24th, only moreso. You may have observed that the hubris factor was all at Port. This is not dissimilar to present circs avec les libs.
Things are lining up again for what looks like one of those years. One of the good ones. I can’t wait! And yes, I’m enjoying this more than the flag, so far anyway. As a Cat fan, pessimism is in the blood.
Essentially Possum, it appears that there’s still a lot of punters prepared to bet on the Rodent, which is, as you say,ceteris paribus, bl00dy amazing!
Lets get it straight about the polling booth.
There is one rep (scrutineer) from each party. They are not allowed to have any indication that they are from a party or say anything about how to vote. They are there to observe only.
No one is technically allowed to leave how to vote cards in the actual booth but it’s up to the elector and station staff to manage this, though they are probably going to get antsy if you do it on purpose.
No one is actually alowed to tell people how to vote in the station. the how to vote cards are allowed and so’s what you wear (unless you are the scrutineer) -sos as far as I know I’ll be forgoing the K07 when I vote, I’m safe from Glen.
George 792 & mad cow 805
I went to a function in Higgins last weekend in what should be Cptn Smirk’s heartland, Malvern, and picked up a lot of dissatisfaction with him and Coalition policies. Windsor and Prahran have traditionally been Labor enclaves but this time there is more movement in other parts of the electorate …
No poll results leaked on Agenda. If anything is coming out tomorrow, Sky wasn’t told about it.
But it’s Kevin07 – not Labor07
Kevin is appearing on Rove next week and Howard is invited too
wonder who Kevin would turn gay for?
JC @ 861 – Julia?
I mean, I would!
William Bowe 821
No problem… maybe I might give the blogging thing a miss now… its been fun though, but my genetic makeup doesnt allow me to hold back when I believe people need to get a dressing down.
I have let Glen and others of his ilk get under my skin, and I shouldnt have, and for that I am disappointed with myself. But I wont be retracting anything I say, cos it is what I believe.
I will leave with this. I believe this election is done and dusted.. it is no longer a matter of whether the Labor party will win this election, but by how much.
In 13 days, history will be made with the Labor Party governing all States, Territories and Federally. I wish all those in the Labor movement good luck on the 24th and hopefully we can take a few seats off the Coalition that were only dreamt about a few months ago.
Kevin07
Either Julie or Bronwyn Bishop.
You think Shorten will go straight into the ministry?
Combet is likely, but Shorten may have to serve an apprentiship (I would put him in – great on TV – I love how the early anti-union ads finshed with a long shot of him, the only knowledge the punters would have of Shorten is Beaconsfield – hardly demonising stuff)
Pi, what is the feeling on the street in Higgins.
Is it… some of us are upset.. there’s gonna be a big swing *or*.. this man must be hunted down and shot?
What time is the coalition campaign launch?
thought Joe would be a good answer
What is it with Cossie? Does he not understand the difference between Enterprise ( since Hawke Keating) and Pattern (pre 1970’s) bargaining in IR. I’m sure he does, but in the conservative tradition of “if you repeat a lie often enough most people will believe it” he is clearly following the party line. Tragic when a once somewhat ethical party stoops to arrant propaganda techniques.
I think it boils down to the b*stardry of individual officials and whether they got out on the right side of the bed as to whether they will ping you for a shirt.
In fact, I think it’s not a bad thing: you can turn it around and think it is great that we live in such a wonderful Democracy that *any* hint of interference in the voting process by *anyone* is frowned upon.
Kirribilli Removals, I still reckon with the huge amounts of money being spent on TV ads etc – many millions of $’s, for the libs to sling a lazy $20k here or there, backing themselves – aka talking themselves up is pretty easy to imagine.
M’sieur de F.
Lovely to speak to you again. I’m not up to scratch on Kevin and the Alponauts, but I have become increasingly aware of a variation of the Odyssey as told by Tories, where a character calls Rudd turns up at the home of a family whose loved head has been away for over 10 years, kills a pile of unsuitable wastrels with fanciful names such as Capt. Rattus, Dollydown and Smirk (although obviously in this version they’re glammed up a bit, and their shameful personal failings are covered over), and then rips off his disguise to reveal that he is in fact the hero they lost over a decade ago, Paul of Keating.
The cleverness of this twist is that it plays into two delusions – those who hated Paul of Keating (Oh look, the Monster has returned!) and those who loved him (Thank Zeus! He is not Tintin, but our brave warrior king of the True Believers). My reading of the story is that the character who wins out in the end is in fact just plain Rudd.
But that will do me.
Howard is probably an even money bet, mopre or less. So if you’re a big punter anyway, $10k now and then is nothing. You might even win! If not, there’s probably some way you can work out a tax break for it … if you know the right lawyers and accountants. And you actually PAY tax, of course.
Sportsbet has lept out to $3.25 in the last few hours. Iasbet has also blown out to $3.50. What has happened in the last 4-5 hours?
William, maybe you should have an ‘outside’ thread. So if anyone wants to have a verbal brawl they could take it outside =).
Someone suggested that Howard will play the race card if he has no other choice.
The reaction to Haneef and Andrew’s Sudanese bashing that went quiet very quickly suggests that it would have a negative impact, or at best an uncertain impact. The Terrorist card has been played once too often as well.
The running of the National Security ads suggest the Liberal party is angling for a Terrorist scare event. Maybe they have some suspects lined up sitting there for a big raid a week out from the election – I can just see the b/s misinformation now. But I still think that wont work and may back fire – and is Keelty such a pussy that Howard uses him like a servant?
If anyone is interested, I’m also in Higgins, (at 2004 I was in Wentowrth)
which is kind of wierd for a site devoted to Pseph-stuff, why are so many of us in inner Melbounre?
Maybe Morgan should come talk to us and see if we thow in numbers like his last poll of 62-38.
george centaur_007@yahoo.com (to keep anonymity)
Yes Higgins is going great guns. Barbara has door knocked every house and the response has been astounding. They hate Howard and Smirker alike. The previous Tory voters are really worried about their kids.
Head office sent us a few more bods and Costello is nervous. He has sent no less than 6 pieces in the last few weeks, including a climate change one printed upside down I kid you not.
Grog @ 866,
Both Shorten and Combet are being talked about for a ministry. The number of ex-union officials in cabinet will be less than the 65% it is now but most people don’t remember which of the more experienced are union or otherwise. that’s one of the problems with the Libs anti-union properganda.
Julie @ 859: if that’s the case I’d be very surprised if there’s a Galaxy in Bennelong released in the Tele tomorrow. May still get a Neilsen though, as its publishe din Fairfax.
Ok Im a goose
I just bought a Kevin07 t shirt
Geezuz
That is indeed an excellent tale. But the question is – who plays Penelope? And what has she been weaving these long years? And how the hell does Kev convince Penny that Circe was just a good friend … God, I hope he didn’t tell Milne about Naxos Calypsos – it’ll be all over the Tele in the morning …
Possum,
No, if a bookie seriosly believed that, say for example, Turnbull WILL hold his seat, and the betting is say LIB 1.40 / ALP 3.00, and you wanted $100k on ALP, regardless of the state of that particular corporate bookies book, the bookie would hold your bet without a blink.
Crowds i.e. total amount bet only affects the tatalizator type betting system.
Re the betting on Bennelong, I would imagine it would be disastrous for the coalition campaign if little johny was seen to have lost it in the polls and the betting markets.
Could it be that some of the libs campaign funds are being used to prop up the price of some dodgy betting propostitions so as to rally the troops and keep the party faithful from self combusting?
Just a thought. Maxinne would apprear good value on previous polls!
Didnt someone say that newspoll would have been finalised by 5pm? My conspiracy is that there are quite a few well paid sieves around that are good with (poll) numbers.
Centaur at 897:
Be fair, they’re only catching up on this climate change stuff after 11 years, they’re bound to make the odd mistake, being ‘L Platers’ and all.
Just saw that ‘winging wendy’ again
She’s quite cute.
817,
I don’t know enough about most of the Labor folks backgrounds to judge where they would be best at. However, I would add these two to your list. Both are changes from where you put them. Peter goes into Aboriginal Affairs and Simon Crean becomes Speaker of the House.
Burgey @ 881
Apparently they said in their Saturday paper that a Bennelong poll would be released on Monday.
That should have been 879 d’oh I see into the future (Rudd wins BTW)
centaur_007 – just emailed you.
Centre – are the bookies well enough informed on electoral matters, and brave enough, to offer odds calculated on the basis that they believe so and so will win, that would be very ugly for them if they lost? I guess the online books are well capitalised, but i didn’t think they like to lose $$
Crean as speaker????????????????
Please no.
Or is the election market a loss leader for those agencies?
890 – thanks Ashley, if that’s the case I’d have expected somethign tonight.
Then again, that entire Agenda was a re-hash of earlier interviews/ pieces today. Maybe they have Sunday nights off.
James @ 868 – I think it’s 2 pm, not sure if that’s 1950s local time or 21st century, eastern daylight savings time
Maybe the gov has given the green light for the ‘people smugglers’ in Indonesia to send off a ship or two over the next week….
Antony thanks for the response @ 829. I understand the political posturing however as i see it the greens have the ability to wedge the ALP right through the middle. If a double dissolution were called and the greens were running on a better IR platform than the ALP they would gain a lot of votes from labor and with the smaller quotas would greatly increase their senate spots.
However i agree that if the ALP win office (fingers crossed) i doubt they would be calling a double dissolution any time soon.
Who knows – maybe there Bennelong shock is a huge pseudo come back by JH.
Poss, how’d you go with the swing adjustment calculator? Still playing with it?
I would be a bit suprised if they put Crean as a speaker. I would think they would want a freindly independant as with NSW.
Centaur: if Smirky loses Higgins, I’ll get naked and do cartwheels down my street, after a lot of cold ones of course. Just to see that smirk wiped off Costello’s face!
That woman was so right.
This is a forum for red-ragger try-hard Labor supporters, who are desperate for the polls not to come right.
Is there an AC Nielsen poll tomorrow? Or another Galaxy?
The Speaker won’t be an independent after 11 years of Opposition. The party would be fuming.
OK Paris.
Hi there Hilton. You might like to nick off, also.
On the mystery of the unusually high price for Mr Howard at Centrebet etc. First of all the theory that Liberal war room is whacking on 10 g now and again to artificially keep Johnny’s price low, to give the impression that he’s still in the game, is not very realistic. That’s because, let’s say there is 20 people in the know, at least one or two would quietly go away at lunchtime, slip into Westpac and remortgage the home and whack on 100 grand privately, knowing that the price is artificially low. The result would be that Johnny would blow out to 4s and Maxine to $1.01.
Point 2. I think the market is genuinely unaware how much the boundaries have shifted since the last election. On the other hand, it is not so much the incumbency factor that is keeping Howard’s price low but affection and gratitude by the high number of over 50s in the electorate, and old money such that live in Hunters Hill, Putney, parts of Ryde and Epping and Eastwood.
Further, Maxine is good copy and she is getting more press than a challenger in her position would normally get and hence the inflated expectations.
Having said all that Maxine has firmed a lot to 2.40 at Centrebet, from about 3.15. And she is good value up to about 1.75.
Centre at 884
That’s not how it has played out in a number of the thinner seats that I know of. A couple of 3 figure bets have moved the prices on a number of seats around the markets.
The other problem here is “if the bookie believes”.
Quite frankly, there a quite a few of us here that know more about which seats will fall than the bookies and what is passing for the “expert knowledge” of some of their so called consultants in this area.
You only had to look at the original odds that were set for the individual seats to know that the bookies were fed an awful lot of drivel from day 1.
On the crowds issue – even though there is a whole lot of shenanigans and process operating around the individual seat markets, the “crowd” is why the main game was showing until very recently the ALP winning, but not picking up enough seats in the individual seat markets.
The effects of a large market flow through. If the seat markets were as large as the main market, the sum of the seat markets would be reflecting a predicted outcome a lot similar to the “who will win the election” market.
881,
Burgey, the DT themselves are the ones who promoted the Monday Bennelong special earlier this weekend. It will be there only they aren’t telling us what is in it excepting to say that it will surprise everyone.
Like an earlier poster, I don’t know why they would sit on it if negative to the government and deliberately post it on the campaign launch day unless Rupert has changed his colours. Because, lets face it, if it is positive to the rodent, that wouldn’t be a surprise now would it? The only genuine surprise would be a sizeable leap poll wise towards Maxine.
Oh , btw, to another poster – campaign launches are 2pm Monday Libs, 2pm Wednesday Labor.
Bennelong boundaries haven’t shifted much since 2004 have they? I understood the redistribution only shaved his margin by 0.1%.
C de F.
It all depends on how much of their resources they may be willing to spend on expert advice/ information etc..
Being an election, certainly relatively little compared to horse racing.But still these guys are in the business of getting it right (whether they do or not is not is debateable) and are prepared to accept wagers of upto six figures.
No, not at all – no desperation. The polls came right in December ‘06 and have pretty much stayed that way. Thanks for your concern though.
Fair dinkum, this blog’s rollin’ like a runaway train!
Footsie, That’s great news that Rove is ridiculing El Rodente in between the Lib attack ads. Particularly enjoy the writing on the wall when it’s on nation-wide punter TV. Shows like Rove’s are the bush telegraph of 21st Century Oz.
George – I’m still playing with it.
I’ve just got the AEC enrolment numbers for each seat, by age, formatted today (which is what I’ve been after) – so I hope to populate it soon.
You’ll be the first to know (actually you’ll be the first of 4 to know as I received 4 different calculators graciously provided to me by people reading that conversation!)
Gotta love the intertubes.
A quick word to stick up for Glen and his ilk. In the words of Voltaire “I may not agree with a word you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it”. And I find the blogs from Glen etc very interesting (except for Tabitha who is just irritating). It gives us an insight into the mind of the enemy, we learn something occasionally and we can hone our debating skills. And I actually agree with him about not wearing KevinO7 in the booth, it somehow seems undemocratic.
Centre @ 884, what do you make of Betfair odds then? (They are set by the punters).
So if your a guy can you wear a dress in the booth?
Who cares what you wear in the booth?!?!
If the pond life that comes after you is influenced by a badge or a form well that’s their problem.
Charlie
Stephen Conroy WILL be in Cabinet he is one of labor’s best in the senate.
Deputy Leader’s in the senate have alway been in cabinet
This is a bit of a giggle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jEaBbO9Os
A fairly even-handed piece from our friend Mr Milne:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22737604-5013650,00.html
Seems like Labor are going to drop the partially polite approach they’ve taken so far with respect to JWH.
To me regulating what someone wears seems un-democratic.
Kevin Rudd will be on Rove next week.
Diogenes, I hope you still have your lamp. Glen i can live with quite happily. Some of his apparent fellow travellers appear to be interested only in insults, which doesn’t strike me as particularly helpful. It’s enough to drive you back into that barrel of yours!
James, who does he squeeze out of the Cabinet I posted?
Centre @ 884
It depends on the bookie. I’m a professional gambler on the races (have only recently taken an interest in election betting) and I find it highly unlikely that any of the major corporate bookies in Australia would back their judgement to the extent of a $100k bet on the election. It’s often overstated how much bookies know – the fact is they don’t need to know that much to turn a profit. The big ones of course will have done serious research, but won’t know any more than most of the guys here, and for that reason are unlikely to have any firmly held opinions along the lines of ‘Howard will definitely hold his seat and I’ll lay him to London’.
Re: the earlier converstaion about ‘mug punters’ ruling the market and bookies not knowing what’s smart money and what’s dumb – that’s partially true but the basic fact is that people betting a lot of money are generally not doing it for fun. Market shifts are worth watching because they’re caused by the big bets – not generally by the ‘crowds’. This explains why the statement the other day about ‘90% of bets being for the coalition’ didn’t lead to any movement in the market – the bets were from cheerleaders and not people who were backing their judgement.
Re Henry at 908
“On the mystery of the unusually high price for Mr Howard at Centrebet etc. First of all the theory that Liberal war room is whacking on 10 g now and again to artificially keep Johnny’s price low, to give the impression that he’s still in the game, is not very realistic. That’s because, let’s say there is 20 people in the know, at least one or two would quietly go away at lunchtime, slip into Westpac and remortgage the home and whack on 100 grand privately, knowing that the price is artificially low. The result would be that Johnny would blow out to 4s and Maxine to $1.01.”
Have you not heard of honour among thieves. They wouldn’t rat on the rat would they?
Possum Comitatus Says:
“George – I’m still playing with it.
I’ve just got the AEC enrolment numbers for each seat, by age, formatted today (which is what I’ve been after) – so I hope to populate it soon.
You’ll be the first to know (actually you’ll be the first of 4 to know as I received 4 different calculators graciously provided to me by people reading that conversation!)
Gotta love the intertubes.”
Cool Poss, thought you might be waiting on those numbers
Looking forward to an article by you once you play with the numbers.
Diogenes @ 916
I’d second that, some of the debates that go on here are a joy to watch. I could do without the abuse that sometimes gets hurled, though but I guess that’s just a reflection of Real Life anyway.
I will stick up for Tabitha though. Irritating as she may be, she is amusing in an “Boys are silly, throw rocks at them” kind of way.
The clock is ticking for Howard unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat?? I see Louise Markus (Greenway) everynow & then at the station & always tell her that the Libs are gone & will be decimated. I tell her that she will survive but the weasel & his ilk are goneski. After a few months of doing this when she sees me now the confidence she had before the campaign seems to now be gone. Maybe she’s resigned to the fact. If any other Liberal Parliamentarians read this blog the message is the same. You’re party is gonski in 07. Never ever divide the country like your leader has done since 1996. It is in the genes of all liberals to be mean spirited, greedy, tight fisted who rule for their liberal mates at the expense of the rest of the nation.
Good riddance.
there is no way Rattus will play the race card now.
thanks Hedley Thomas, Stephen Kean and the lawyer whose name escapes me
Hilton @ 903 You should know the rules: No Anorak – No Blog.
909
Possum Comitatus Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
“If the seat markets were as large as the main market, the sum of the seat markets would be reflecting a predicted outcome a lot similar to the “who will win the election” market.”
Possum Comitatus is correct, see here:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1452
George I replied, thanx
But now I have to go letterbox. I hope the street lights are good!
Anyone else want to help out in Higgins centaur_007@yahoo.com.
It’s only recently that they have thought we have a chance hence the extra bods but the more help we get the better. This seat will be marginal and a win is still possible.
I’ll bet my left one that the swing won’t be under 4%. The sentiment is definately there.
Mark @ 920 – LOL
Finally we have some election action in Wannon! An workchoices attack flyer from ALP appeared in the letterbox today along with drivel from FF. No sign of the libs at all here in my town (Portland). I imagine it is for Senate campaigning really.
The only poster up that I have seen is for Family First, very dark blue and hard to read.
Most of the Lib supporters here that I know that want to say anything are resigned to an ALP govt and hope the losses wont be great.
I don’t see how that would be a ’shock’. A further comeback in the national 2PP would be, but Bennelong? Nah.
Possum,
They are bookmakers. They try to balance their books. Obviously the weight of money they hold WILL have a great bearing on their prices.
The underlying fact is that the total amount bet is not the only factor that determines fixed odds prices. Bookmakers may rely on opinion, information and market forces (which may include the mood of the market).
Mark @ 920 – excellent, wish it was on TV …
Diogenes @ 806,
Betfair don’t set their own odds. You bet with other punters, and the punters set the odds.
It’s a fundamentally different business model to most (if not all) other bookies.
Centre – how much of the price is not related to the betting information the bookies have? I guess it will vary, but as a rule of thumb?
Family first were asked for a please explain on their preferencing of Hansen. gave a very bad account of themselves. The Australian also got their facts wrong, saying that the libs were preferenced before Hansen, its the other way around. There is real anger in the Christian Community about this one. their support in the coming election is likely to be lot less support because of this.
910 Julie – if prevailing wisdom has become that a lead to Howard in the Bennelong is a surprise, then the Libs are in big trouble.
A big swing to him maybe, but which headline is the “shocking” one (and which would get you buying the paper if you didn’t usually?)?
“PM looks set to win his seat” or
“Howard to lose Bennelong”
When it comes to individual seat markets, the predictive power isn’t as good as that of the overall result. In 2001 Centrebet favourites won in 43 out of 47 marginal seats and in 2004 it was 24 out of 32 marginals.
I suspect a similar result this time – this is where the informed punter has a chance to clean up.
If the swing to Rudd is on in a big way, Bennelong will go to Maxine.
Does anyone else think Rodent and Hyacinth’s rather bitchy interview in the Fairfax papers today will hurt the Liberals? I don’t think the average person likes a PM’s wife playing politics.
Stephen, read exactly what I am saying in all my comments. I am providing an example of a $100k bet in a small market. Of course it depends on the bookie, his knowledge and his resources. By the way I am a professional market analyst.
What do you think of Betfair? I think it’s a revolution. Don’t fall for the crap that the outdated TAB trys to dish and spin out.
Gough at 927 — Stephen at 926 nails it, people putting on a poultice don’t do it for fun nor as a matter of honour of belief. What motivates them is pure probability of a win. i.e. greed.
Grog 943
It’s been about 36 hours since I saw the front of the Tele, but the words were to similar to “results that will shock even the most hardened of political observers.”
To me, that sounds like nothing other than a sudden and sharp turn against the PM.
Dyno, it’s fixed odds. It dosen’t matter if you bet with a bookie or punter. Someone is taking your bet.
I’ve reluctantly come to the conclusion that for Stephen Conroy to have a seat at the Cabinet table, Simon Crean would have to come out.
948 – yes, I can’t believe that Maxine going down would be a shock to the hardened (of heart, that is). Other than us, by and large. Are we hardened?
170
ruawake Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Latham on Piers from hansard.
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/view_document.aspx?id=2188481&table=HANSARDR
I thought this is great reading. Talks about Piers Akerman & Murdoch press. Spoken by Latham.
Centre @ 946,
I agree with you, it’s a revolution. Anything that cuts the “house take” from say 10-15% to under 5% has to be good for punters. And the transparent way they show the odds is great, too.
I found the Gillard thing today very interesting comrades and the spin just incredible.
1. Lawyers have ethics rules. Sleeping with a person giving you instructions on behalf of your client is a huge no-no.
Remember the client was not Bruce Wilson (secretary of the union) but the AWU.
In a case where Gillard admits a relationship with Wilson how can she seriously maintain that there was not a conflict of interest in acting in the best interests of the AWU?
The actuality or appearance of a conflict of interest is enough to breach the rules.
Secondly you have a duty not just to accept instructions but to ensure as far as possible that the instructions are lawful. I think some may question a claim that I was 32-35 when the relationship happened so I was very young and naive.
Thirdly the final element of the defense is I was asked to set up an association and never enquired as to the purpose of the association?
That’s a breach of confidentiality. Clients are entitled to confidentiality unless they waive it. Without the benefit of confidentiality being waived we have no way of knowing from the client independently if that is correct. You cant waive confidentiality without the clients permission.
I am sure our resident lawyer Yasmine Anadyr can correct me on these points if I am wrong?
Advantage for Rudd in Rodent having his campaign launch first: Labor can gauge the reaction to whatever Howard announces tomorrow, and if need be, fine tune their response for Wednesday.
I’m assuming Howard will announce a boost to family tax benefit payments.
No CL de F remember we’re blogged down.
i know it won’t happen but wouldn’t parliament be fun for the next 10 years if Albanese was given the Speakers job lol.
he would be feral on the Libs and love every minute of it.
Jon #944 Actually, judging by the results you quote (particularly 2004), I’d say the individual seat markets are where the BOOKIES have a chance to clean up.
What time does the Tele hit the streets? (or, perhaps more usefully, when does their website get updated – if indeed it mirrors the paper edition sufficiently to include the Bennelong ’shock’?)