• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.
• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.
• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.
• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.
• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.
• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.
• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.
• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country”. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.
1,127 Comments
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Dave @ 843, I know. I’m sure the ETU and others would want the Greens to try, but the trap being set was pretty obvious.
Grog – I thought Kelvin Thomson was a gap-filler for either Debus or Dreyfus. Ludwig is doubly so. Albanese is a possibility in Environment, but I think Rudd will go for someone safe, sure and steady after Garrett’s difficulties. Smith is the man if he does so.
Timbo – I’d like to see Tanner in Treasury myself, but Rudd will not renege on his announcement that Swan, Tanner and Gillard would retain their current portfolios.
Incidentally, I left off Jenny Macklin (Family and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs) and Tanya Plibersek (Human Services, Housing, Youth and Women).
Whitlam and Fraser have joined forces to criticise the Coalition:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22741236-5001028,00.html
That’s when you know you’ve gone too far, when these blokes are teaming up against you.
Re T Shirts
I had thought Glen would be wrong on this (free speech and all that), but he may be right in that wearing a Kevin-07 T-Shirt into a booth may contravene s340(1)(e) of the Electoral Act in that it is a ‘printed notice or sign’ within 6 metres of the entrance of a polling booth.
I am aware (through googling) of people being spoken to for wearing Union t-shirts at the last Federal Election and some parties are advising their campaign workers (free citizens all) to take off or cover up badges, T-Shirts etc.. when they go in to vote to avoid trouble with the officials.
Certainly, if you are an election official or scrutineer, you can cop a $1000 fine if you wear partisan material.
You may also cop some flak from the odd over zealous polling official if you wear something as overt as a Kevin 07 T Shirt, but really where do they draw the line?
Who decides whether an anti-war T-Shirt is illegal? A pro environment T-Shirt? An anti-Greenie T-Shirt?
Spiros: There is a $500 fine if you leave a how-to-vote card in a polling booth (s335 of the Act) http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s335.html
FTP @ 839. As it happens, I am a Geelong supporter. I was at the grand final. It was fantastic, and more than made up for 1989, 1992, 1994 and 1995. Well, nearly. Port were totally shell-shocked. Which is what I’m anticipating on the 24th, only moreso. You may have observed that the hubris factor was all at Port. This is not dissimilar to present circs avec les libs.
Things are lining up again for what looks like one of those years. One of the good ones. I can’t wait! And yes, I’m enjoying this more than the flag, so far anyway. As a Cat fan, pessimism is in the blood.
Essentially Possum, it appears that there’s still a lot of punters prepared to bet on the Rodent, which is, as you say,ceteris paribus, bl00dy amazing!
Lets get it straight about the polling booth.
There is one rep (scrutineer) from each party. They are not allowed to have any indication that they are from a party or say anything about how to vote. They are there to observe only.
No one is technically allowed to leave how to vote cards in the actual booth but it’s up to the elector and station staff to manage this, though they are probably going to get antsy if you do it on purpose.
No one is actually alowed to tell people how to vote in the station. the how to vote cards are allowed and so’s what you wear (unless you are the scrutineer) -sos as far as I know I’ll be forgoing the K07 when I vote, I’m safe from Glen.
George 792 & mad cow 805
I went to a function in Higgins last weekend in what should be Cptn Smirk’s heartland, Malvern, and picked up a lot of dissatisfaction with him and Coalition policies. Windsor and Prahran have traditionally been Labor enclaves but this time there is more movement in other parts of the electorate …
No poll results leaked on Agenda. If anything is coming out tomorrow, Sky wasn’t told about it.
But it’s Kevin07 – not Labor07
Kevin is appearing on Rove next week and Howard is invited too
wonder who Kevin would turn gay for?
JC @ 861 – Julia?
I mean, I would!
William Bowe 821
No problem… maybe I might give the blogging thing a miss now… its been fun though, but my genetic makeup doesnt allow me to hold back when I believe people need to get a dressing down.
I have let Glen and others of his ilk get under my skin, and I shouldnt have, and for that I am disappointed with myself. But I wont be retracting anything I say, cos it is what I believe.
I will leave with this. I believe this election is done and dusted.. it is no longer a matter of whether the Labor party will win this election, but by how much.
In 13 days, history will be made with the Labor Party governing all States, Territories and Federally. I wish all those in the Labor movement good luck on the 24th and hopefully we can take a few seats off the Coalition that were only dreamt about a few months ago.
Kevin07
Either Julie or Bronwyn Bishop.
You think Shorten will go straight into the ministry?
Combet is likely, but Shorten may have to serve an apprentiship (I would put him in – great on TV – I love how the early anti-union ads finshed with a long shot of him, the only knowledge the punters would have of Shorten is Beaconsfield – hardly demonising stuff)
Pi, what is the feeling on the street in Higgins.
Is it… some of us are upset.. there’s gonna be a big swing *or*.. this man must be hunted down and shot?
What time is the coalition campaign launch?
thought Joe would be a good answer
What is it with Cossie? Does he not understand the difference between Enterprise ( since Hawke Keating) and Pattern (pre 1970’s) bargaining in IR. I’m sure he does, but in the conservative tradition of “if you repeat a lie often enough most people will believe it” he is clearly following the party line. Tragic when a once somewhat ethical party stoops to arrant propaganda techniques.
I think it boils down to the b*stardry of individual officials and whether they got out on the right side of the bed as to whether they will ping you for a shirt.
In fact, I think it’s not a bad thing: you can turn it around and think it is great that we live in such a wonderful Democracy that *any* hint of interference in the voting process by *anyone* is frowned upon.
Kirribilli Removals, I still reckon with the huge amounts of money being spent on TV ads etc – many millions of $’s, for the libs to sling a lazy $20k here or there, backing themselves – aka talking themselves up is pretty easy to imagine.
M’sieur de F.
Lovely to speak to you again. I’m not up to scratch on Kevin and the Alponauts, but I have become increasingly aware of a variation of the Odyssey as told by Tories, where a character calls Rudd turns up at the home of a family whose loved head has been away for over 10 years, kills a pile of unsuitable wastrels with fanciful names such as Capt. Rattus, Dollydown and Smirk (although obviously in this version they’re glammed up a bit, and their shameful personal failings are covered over), and then rips off his disguise to reveal that he is in fact the hero they lost over a decade ago, Paul of Keating.
The cleverness of this twist is that it plays into two delusions – those who hated Paul of Keating (Oh look, the Monster has returned!) and those who loved him (Thank Zeus! He is not Tintin, but our brave warrior king of the True Believers). My reading of the story is that the character who wins out in the end is in fact just plain Rudd.
But that will do me.
Howard is probably an even money bet, mopre or less. So if you’re a big punter anyway, $10k now and then is nothing. You might even win! If not, there’s probably some way you can work out a tax break for it … if you know the right lawyers and accountants. And you actually PAY tax, of course.
Sportsbet has lept out to $3.25 in the last few hours. Iasbet has also blown out to $3.50. What has happened in the last 4-5 hours?
William, maybe you should have an ‘outside’ thread. So if anyone wants to have a verbal brawl they could take it outside =).
Someone suggested that Howard will play the race card if he has no other choice.
The reaction to Haneef and Andrew’s Sudanese bashing that went quiet very quickly suggests that it would have a negative impact, or at best an uncertain impact. The Terrorist card has been played once too often as well.
The running of the National Security ads suggest the Liberal party is angling for a Terrorist scare event. Maybe they have some suspects lined up sitting there for a big raid a week out from the election – I can just see the b/s misinformation now. But I still think that wont work and may back fire – and is Keelty such a pussy that Howard uses him like a servant?
If anyone is interested, I’m also in Higgins, (at 2004 I was in Wentowrth)
which is kind of wierd for a site devoted to Pseph-stuff, why are so many of us in inner Melbounre?
Maybe Morgan should come talk to us and see if we thow in numbers like his last poll of 62-38.
george centaur_007@yahoo.com (to keep anonymity)
Yes Higgins is going great guns. Barbara has door knocked every house and the response has been astounding. They hate Howard and Smirker alike. The previous Tory voters are really worried about their kids.
Head office sent us a few more bods and Costello is nervous. He has sent no less than 6 pieces in the last few weeks, including a climate change one printed upside down I kid you not.
Grog @ 866,
Both Shorten and Combet are being talked about for a ministry. The number of ex-union officials in cabinet will be less than the 65% it is now but most people don’t remember which of the more experienced are union or otherwise. that’s one of the problems with the Libs anti-union properganda.
Julie @ 859: if that’s the case I’d be very surprised if there’s a Galaxy in Bennelong released in the Tele tomorrow. May still get a Neilsen though, as its publishe din Fairfax.
Ok Im a goose
I just bought a Kevin07 t shirt
Geezuz
That is indeed an excellent tale. But the question is – who plays Penelope? And what has she been weaving these long years? And how the hell does Kev convince Penny that Circe was just a good friend … God, I hope he didn’t tell Milne about Naxos Calypsos – it’ll be all over the Tele in the morning …
Possum,
No, if a bookie seriosly believed that, say for example, Turnbull WILL hold his seat, and the betting is say LIB 1.40 / ALP 3.00, and you wanted $100k on ALP, regardless of the state of that particular corporate bookies book, the bookie would hold your bet without a blink.
Crowds i.e. total amount bet only affects the tatalizator type betting system.
Re the betting on Bennelong, I would imagine it would be disastrous for the coalition campaign if little johny was seen to have lost it in the polls and the betting markets.
Could it be that some of the libs campaign funds are being used to prop up the price of some dodgy betting propostitions so as to rally the troops and keep the party faithful from self combusting?
Just a thought. Maxinne would apprear good value on previous polls!
Didnt someone say that newspoll would have been finalised by 5pm? My conspiracy is that there are quite a few well paid sieves around that are good with (poll) numbers.
Centaur at 897:
Be fair, they’re only catching up on this climate change stuff after 11 years, they’re bound to make the odd mistake, being ‘L Platers’ and all.
Just saw that ‘winging wendy’ again
She’s quite cute.
817,
I don’t know enough about most of the Labor folks backgrounds to judge where they would be best at. However, I would add these two to your list. Both are changes from where you put them. Peter goes into Aboriginal Affairs and Simon Crean becomes Speaker of the House.
Burgey @ 881
Apparently they said in their Saturday paper that a Bennelong poll would be released on Monday.
That should have been 879 d’oh I see into the future (Rudd wins BTW)
centaur_007 – just emailed you.
Centre – are the bookies well enough informed on electoral matters, and brave enough, to offer odds calculated on the basis that they believe so and so will win, that would be very ugly for them if they lost? I guess the online books are well capitalised, but i didn’t think they like to lose $$
Crean as speaker????????????????
Please no.
Or is the election market a loss leader for those agencies?
890 – thanks Ashley, if that’s the case I’d have expected somethign tonight.
Then again, that entire Agenda was a re-hash of earlier interviews/ pieces today. Maybe they have Sunday nights off.
James @ 868 – I think it’s 2 pm, not sure if that’s 1950s local time or 21st century, eastern daylight savings time
Maybe the gov has given the green light for the ‘people smugglers’ in Indonesia to send off a ship or two over the next week….
Antony thanks for the response @ 829. I understand the political posturing however as i see it the greens have the ability to wedge the ALP right through the middle. If a double dissolution were called and the greens were running on a better IR platform than the ALP they would gain a lot of votes from labor and with the smaller quotas would greatly increase their senate spots.
However i agree that if the ALP win office (fingers crossed) i doubt they would be calling a double dissolution any time soon.
Who knows – maybe there Bennelong shock is a huge pseudo come back by JH.
Poss, how’d you go with the swing adjustment calculator? Still playing with it?
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