• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.
• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.
• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.
• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.
• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.
• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.
• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.
• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country”. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.
1,127 Comments
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948 – yes, I can’t believe that Maxine going down would be a shock to the hardened (of heart, that is). Other than us, by and large. Are we hardened?
170
ruawake Says:
November 11th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Latham on Piers from hansard.
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/view_document.aspx?id=2188481&table=HANSARDR
I thought this is great reading. Talks about Piers Akerman & Murdoch press. Spoken by Latham.
Centre @ 946,
I agree with you, it’s a revolution. Anything that cuts the “house take” from say 10-15% to under 5% has to be good for punters. And the transparent way they show the odds is great, too.
I found the Gillard thing today very interesting comrades and the spin just incredible.
1. Lawyers have ethics rules. Sleeping with a person giving you instructions on behalf of your client is a huge no-no.
Remember the client was not Bruce Wilson (secretary of the union) but the AWU.
In a case where Gillard admits a relationship with Wilson how can she seriously maintain that there was not a conflict of interest in acting in the best interests of the AWU?
The actuality or appearance of a conflict of interest is enough to breach the rules.
Secondly you have a duty not just to accept instructions but to ensure as far as possible that the instructions are lawful. I think some may question a claim that I was 32-35 when the relationship happened so I was very young and naive.
Thirdly the final element of the defense is I was asked to set up an association and never enquired as to the purpose of the association?
That’s a breach of confidentiality. Clients are entitled to confidentiality unless they waive it. Without the benefit of confidentiality being waived we have no way of knowing from the client independently if that is correct. You cant waive confidentiality without the clients permission.
I am sure our resident lawyer Yasmine Anadyr can correct me on these points if I am wrong?
Advantage for Rudd in Rodent having his campaign launch first: Labor can gauge the reaction to whatever Howard announces tomorrow, and if need be, fine tune their response for Wednesday.
I’m assuming Howard will announce a boost to family tax benefit payments.
No CL de F remember we’re blogged down.
i know it won’t happen but wouldn’t parliament be fun for the next 10 years if Albanese was given the Speakers job lol.
he would be feral on the Libs and love every minute of it.
Jon #944 Actually, judging by the results you quote (particularly 2004), I’d say the individual seat markets are where the BOOKIES have a chance to clean up.
What time does the Tele hit the streets? (or, perhaps more usefully, when does their website get updated – if indeed it mirrors the paper edition sufficiently to include the Bennelong ’shock’?)
Centre,
You might have missed my point at 940. I wasn’t referring to the existence (or not) of fixed odds. I was referring to the fact that on Betfair, there’s not a bookie sitting there strategising about how to move the odds.
Scotty, would a poll showing Howard winning Bennelong be a shock to political observers? I think not.
I live in the neighbouring seat of Berowra, but I know some people from Howard’s electorate, and from what I’ve heard, the support for Maxine is huge.
The oldies might be backing the Rodent, but young people are overwelmingly behind Labor this time.
Grog, thanks for the timely reminder.
Maybe the bookies have had an early look at the Bennelong poll?
Julie
Hope your 18 year old registered in time!
Aristo, wrong, the probabilities of the individual seat markets do reflect the main market. Explain why you believe otherwise?
ESJ,
if the Gillard b/f scandal reaches the stench level of workchoices, iraq, awb etc etc etc then she will get kicked out by the people too.
ESJ,
I agree with you that the AWU thing puts Gillard in a bad light (assuming it’s true).
Won’t affect the election much, though.
Well HarryH
If the facts as reported are correct and I understand Medicare Gold didnt deny them it is a scandal.
Sadly given the average person wont understand why it wont have any electoral impact.
Bet the Liberals would love to find Bruce Wilson though? Or maybe the boys from the West Australian CFMEU?
For the record, I think Samantha Maiden’s article was pretty accurate. That last newspoll had a lot of sweat breaking out – though she was wrong when she claimed that the blogs are starting to call a comeback.
As I’ve said before, ALP supporters are like the Geelong faithful during this year’s AFL finals. Nothing wrong with being nervous.
Limerick contest redux:
A man supervising the accounts of the nation,
Quoth, “I’m ignoring the return of inflation,
By resting on my laurels,
Plus I’ll start some petty quarrels,
It’s how I cope with metaphorical castration”.
Dyno, and it is probably the most accurate indicator of all because factors of not balancing a book is at play.
ESJ – I suggest you complain to the Law Society, citing the high grade proof of evidence contained in the Daily Tele. I’m sure they’ll help you out. Until all the actual facts are known, as distinct from the smearathon perpetrated by News Ltd, Milne and co., it would perhaps be wise to refrain from judgement, or indeed speculation. I doubt that the Daily Telegraph is regarded as evidence of anything, by anyone.
Anyway, Julia will be Deputy PM very soon, and PM at a date to be determined. Think about that!
958: True, the bookies would clean up. But the well informed punter can do well at the expense of their less informed brethren (I fear I am the latter) by backing the roughy.
Edward St John:
To answer your questions.
1. It is not against legal ethics to sleep with a client. It is discouraged but it does not breach any regulations. It would also not be a conflict of interest.
2. And what makes you think that Gillard had any awareness that her instructions were unlawful?
3. I haven’t read the full description on this issue, but it does not breach any duties of confidentiality by revealing that an association was set up (without knowing the purpose). There is nothing commercially sensitive in that revelation.
And of course Gillard was never investigated nor reported to the relevant Law Institute (to the best of my knowledge).
I have a fifth sense about this election.
It is about all about smell.
Kevvie smells a bit fishy.
Garret smells a bit feral,
and Julia Gillart smells like a fishy feral.
The stench of the Keating Labor Government is certainly not just a red herring.
Grog,
ALP supporters are the biggest bunch of nervous nellies I’ve ever seen! I had one at work the other day telling me, “Just you watch, Howard will produce another Tampa”. Give me a break!
This is probably going to be one of the biggest wins in Australian political history.
940 Dyno- I sit corrected. Thought Betfair were the same as other bookies.
922 Showson- I don’t have a rational argument to support my Kevin07 ban. It’s more a gut feeling that in the sanctity of the polling booth that there should just be the voter, the voting slip and the pencil. No other influences. It’s only a small thing but I think the line should be drawn.
924 CDF- Had to get a brighter lamp but still no honest people to see! Agree about some of the vitriol being unhelpful. In general, I find that when people resort to emotive and personal attacks during an argument, it’s either a sign that they know they are losing or that the counter-opinion expressed challenges a belief they hold which is more based in faith than logic.
Hey whatever happened to the “big business” campaign??
Where are the “union thugs” bursting through the poor shopkeeper’s door???
Hilton. Unfortunately the smell is just you, and is the stench of idiocy.
asanque,
Even if what you say is all true, it’s still not a very high standard of behaviour, is it? (Assuming it’s true).
If I was the client I’d be none too pleased.
And, by the way, I have some experience of Gillard as a solicitor. She was thorough, highly competent, clever, witty and patient. She was also very successful, and well regarded by her colleagues, and she was very good on IR law.
No Asanque,
1. Bruce Wilson as secretary of the union was not her client, the union was her client.
What your saying is like saying the CEO of BHP is my client not BHP.
2. I dont, but I would expect any lawyer would enquire – Hey why do you want me to set up an association might be an obvious question
3. Confidences reside in the client not the lawyer
was never investigated nor reported to the Law Institute – which does not amount to an exoneration or condonation of the behaviour.
Centre,
To be honest I struggle to keep up with the speed of the comments and have spent many nights tracing conversations back along the posts and hence I end up not commenting myself. I did not mean to imply that you didn’t know what you were talking about.
My interest in the election betting is related to this issue of how much the bookies know. Unlike the races there are no ‘unknown’ factors about the electorate: any new information is merely an extra analysis of what’s already happening. As such I think it’s unlikely that the bookies would bother altering their markets other than to the percentage of their holdings. The fact that there seems to be a lag between poll release dates and market change would add to this assumption.
Re: betfair I completely agree. Tabcorp’s propaganda is Howardesque.
Hilton Says: “I have a fifth sense about this election.”…. yeah, it seems to be coming from your behind…
Also Dyno – the larger the bet the more important the takeout becomes. And those monkeys at the TAB don’t understand why big punters don’t want to bet on the TAB.
The Tele story on the Whitlam/Fraser letter on declining accountability of governments runs to a parsimonoius 100 words:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22741236-5001028,00.html
Balanced reporting?
Dyno: Perhaps, but what relevance is it to the electoral campaign?
Zero.
Whereas the standard of behaviour of Howard, Downer, Andrews in Iraq/AWB/Haneef respectively leave far more to be questioned.
Grog, not every big business organisation signed up to that advertising campaign. Some of them don’t want to alienate Rudd.
However the likes of Peter Hendy will be irrelevant after November 24.
You’re right Dyno – but after 11 years I think they’re allowed to be.
But there won’t be a Tampa, or a wedge.
Pollbludgers there is no ACN tomorrow. Not sure when the next one is due.
ESJ,
your distress that the latest smear has drifted by again is palpable.
maybe next time if they get a slightly respectable journo to write it then it might get taken notice of.
oh that’s right….a respectable journo wouldn’t bother.
Glen Milne may as well pack up with Shanners and pitch for a job at the National Enquirer or maybe Perez Hilton.
ESJ: this Gillard stuff doesn’t have legs, it didn’t make any TV news bulletin tonight. Give it up buddy, your side will need another wedge.
I stephen, I agree.
I must say for Howard who sometimes appears nervous on TV under pressure and he will be under massive pressure tomorrow i just hope he doesn’t make a gaffe like ‘1916′ (shudders), he really needs a flawless performance and a flawless bunch of policies to have even a sniff of winning the election.
Howie would find it hard to win even with ‘Conrad Breen’ working for him from Wag the Dog, maybe a war is the only thing that could say Howie now, we’ll see if it is after the next round of polling.
Have a look at Labor’s track record -2 wins from opposition since the end of WWII. Curtin became PM on the floor of the house – not at an election.
Really only 1972 and 1983 is all there is to talk about. Hence the eternal pessimism of the standard issue Labor hack.
Hey Hilton – you’re quite right. A stench is haunting this election. it is the stench of Howardism. And it’s hovering over a safe liberal seat near you!
AM @ 759
Big Bob Baldwin is in some of the ads. Man, he is so huge you have to think that Paterson will have a bye-election in the next 3 yrs if he wins
asanque,
It will have no effect on the campaign or the result. But it does go to the issue of character.
After all, Gillard’s never been in government, so there’s no direct comparison between her past behaviour and that of the Ministers you mentioned.
But if (and I am aware it’s only an if) she’s willing to do what was alleged in that article, it hardly fills you with optimism for what her ministerial ethics will be like.
1000th post
867 mad cow Says: November 11th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
Actually, something far more dangerous. Guys in suits and ties laughing at the ridiculous screw-ups that keep happening to the libs.
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