• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.
• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.
• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.
• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.
• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.
• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.
• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.
• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country”. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.
1,127 Comments
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Edward St John:
1. Yes, but how do you link sleeping with the person instructing you, to a conflict of interest?
Answer: It is not a conflict of interest.
2. Lawyers set up companies and associations all the time, it is not necessarily a question that is asked. Although most lawyers would likely inquire into the background.
Answer: It is not a breach of any duty owed to a client.
3. Which part of my explanation of the duty of confidentiality are you unclear on?
If she was not investigated or reported, one presumes in this country (even under Howard), that she is innocent until proven guilty.
Pi – when the suits are laughing, the swing is on.
You know Footscray,
I think the standard of good blogging is criticism of what is perceived to be your own side. Otherwise it just becomes barracking for your football team right or wrong.
I happen to believe 2 wrongs dont make a right. I think the criticism of spin and manipulation which is levelled against JWH is spot on. But KR adopting the same tactics doesnt make Labor smart it just lowers the standard of all debate/ politics in this country and just leads to more hatred and poison on all sides.
Stephen what would you make of a betting shift from 5/2 out to 3/1 in a short space of time before the release of a number of polls, hypothetically.
These Liberal ads only prove how politically bankrupt the Liberal party is, is this the best they have got, people want to see their vision for the future, obviously they don’t have one, or they do, and are to scared to shows us what it is.
The Liberals could run ads on their highlights of the past 11years, such things as:
Workchoices
Children overboard
Australian Wheatboard
Invading Iraq
Oops can’t run on past record, can’t tell us future vision we won’t like it, so that’s why they are running a smear and fear campaign, it’s all they have left in their bag of tricks.
Labor have really backed the rodent into a corner, he is now a cornered rat, no wonder is is getting snarly, time for them to finish the rat of, it is going to be ugly, but enjoyable for the Labor faithfull.
asanque- I’m not disagreeing with your knowledge about lawyers sleeping with clients but I’m amazed it’s true. As a doctor, if I slept with a patient I’d be looking at a long, long holiday!
Liberals vision for the future: Work Choices Part 2, more crawling up Bush’s arse
Asanque I think I have made my points. Dyno’s last post summed it up well I thought.
Dyno: Character is important for any politician (although apparently less so in recent times). I look forward to the article by Fraser and Whitlam on accountability tomorrow.
However, the character of the author of the article is less then impeccable, and unless I see a more credible source, its hardly noteworthy for most I imagine.
Sorry to come in at the end here all but what is the scandal you’ve been talking re: Gillard?
The problem with this board: you let the Liberal trolls set the agenda, then get bogged down in boring arguments that go nowhere.
Time for a new thread, William.
This thread is going ballistic! (Doesn’t anyone have to work tomorrow???!)
ESJ
Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. The disgusting behaviour of past ministers would make interesting reading in years to come.
@1012
Hehe. Yes, but guess which website I’ll be looking at all day?
12 days to go grog. its gonna go ballisticer from here to the day of reckoning
I’m wondering whether we’ll get a 10,000 post thread on November 23.
Shaboh,
Moral relativism is not an argument.
ESJ-please have a look at William’s post on Boothby from today. It will clear up some of the points we discussed earlier.
Anyone know if any organistation is doing “exit polls” on the 24th?
Will the Daily Telegraph likely have the Bennelong poll up at midnight tonight?
But ESJ – how has Rudd adopted Howard’s ethos? He has been quite respectful towards him. Mrs ‘Rudd’ even went so far as to say she admired Mrs H for bringing up the kids in the spotlight. I can’t see how the ALPs have really hopped into any of the Libs, although there’s plenty of reason for them to. Certainly, no one has suggested that they have behaved in some sort of sleazy way, despite the possibility (probability) of several such incidents. And I happen to like barracking. Sometimes I even attempt to discuss policy (although, sadly, few folk seem much interested in that!). Anyway, as I said earlier, I’m very happy to engage with Glen, you and anyone else who doesn’t just bob up to hurl invective. In such circumstances, I feel quite happy to hurl it back. As a quondam advocate, I have encountered many robust exchanges over the years, I’ve enjoyed them all!
OK, here’s how the bookies set their odds to make their cut (roughly 7%)
It’s down the bottom of this page:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/betting2007
…under the heading “How to convert odds to probabilities”
And if you do the sums on Sportingbet’s odds for Maxine and the Rodent, the bookmaker’s overround comes to 7.78%.
Going by that, it’s consistent with the example given, and shows that the money is indeed on the Rodent, but the bookies don’t care, as they adjust the odds to win no matter what (of course!).
So the question remains, why twice as much money on the Rodent if the punters are rational, and they use the available information?
Grog – not only do i have to work tomorrow, i have to go up the bush, which means no wi-fi (I refuse to pay the exorbitant rates chanrged by our pals at Teltsra). So am o-d’ing tonight. Will I survive with only the treeware to help? Will be seeking rapid updates on return.
Good analysis on Bolt, Albrechtsen and Ackerman.
And the MSM are wondering why they are becoming increasingly irrelevent.
Yeah, do what ESJ does – just quote something Freud said, and pretend those ideas are credible.
Although im a Labor supporter I feel sorry for the state of the Liberal campaign (ok not really). I found a quote from Adlai Stevenson that fits their me-too message very nicely.
The Republicans have a “me too” candidate running on a “yes but” platform, advised by a “has been” staff.
Just change republicans to labor party. I hope it gives them a boost.
I think exit polls are useless in Australia, because many people seem unwilling to reveal their political allegiances.
This phenomena does not exist in more mature democracies like the United States.
Centre,
Hypothetically I’d say it meant someone knew something.
The more interesting question might be who that is. I certainly wouldn’t put it past someone like Mark Read to have a deal with the pollsters to get the inside scoop (hypothetically). Market movements so far would suggest that he doesn’t, but it’s probably someting the future holds.
Considering that poll results rarely provide concrete evidence of anything, it would take something pretty substantial to motivate an ‘insider’ to make a bet that would change markets.
asanque,
Agree MSM are becoming irrelevant. Which is basically a good thing, why should a bunch of unelected nobodies (ie journos) have all the power they used to have until recently.
Much better to give the power back to the elected nobodies, whom we can chuck out after three years if we feel like it.
Well that’s it for me.
His quotes would probably be more memorable if he managed to win the election…
asanque- sorry to bug you on this but wouldn’t a lawyer sleeping with a client be (a) an abuse of position of power and (b) potential conflict of interest?
Yep, the MSM have disgraced themselves this election. Oh well, I expect they’ll all be salivating over Howard and his supposed huge policy announcements tomorrow, Shanahan will declare Howard is back in the race etc.
Stephen @ 1028,
Agree with your last point. It now takes quite a lot of money to move betting markets in any meaningful way (noting that all the markets are connected, bookies lay off with each other all the time, and probably use Betfair as well). If you were going to spend that to influence the result of (say) Bennelong, why not give it to JWH or Maxine so they can buy more electioneering with it?
Adlai was a bit like the Democrats’ Gough. They all knew he couldn’t win, but they all loved him. In the end, no-one could let him know he wasn’t going to get the nomination, so it hurt him a lot more. Or so Galbraith says.
Dyno: Accountability in both journalism and politics is in an abysmal state at present.
The Democrats were previously there to “keep the bastards honest”, but sold their soul in the GST deal.
Unfortunately now we have no one.
Mediawatch used to be a good check on rogue journalists, yet these days its a non-event.
Both professions are in dire need of rules of ethics.
Thank you for the referral to the earlier post Diogenes.
954 Edward StJohn Says: November 11th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
I’m sure you did. But it’s clear you’re not a lawyer and don’t actually know anything about ethics in that context. Let’s leave it at that.
Hilton says
“I have a fifth sense about this election”
How about you run along now and work on getting some ‘common sense’ before you try and extend into the fifth one, OK?
Oh Pi, A little scrutiny? Perhaps not for Labor hey?
I don’t mean to shock you guys, but lawyers and clients have very close relationships all the time. It is NOT like medicos sleeping with their patients. There is an argument that barristers shouldn’t be too close to their clients, but solicitors aren’t in the same position. Would you feel constrained from asking your travel agent out, if you happened to like him/her? Would that be a conflict of interest? Or maybe the panel beater. I mean, what’s the problem here?
He quite likes the free associational ‘reasoning’ of Sigmund Freud though. That gives you a flavour of his analytical approach.
asanque,
I agree with your comment @ 1036.
Without getting too deep and meaningful (it’s a bit late), I sometimes think this just reflects society. If people don’t find it shocking anymore when politicians break promises, maybe that’s because we all are much more used to the idea of breaking promises in our personal lives.
Shows on (1042) be nice when talking about Pi
Just out.
Newspoll 55/45
For anyone interested on my weight loss quest:
My goal for election day is 79 KG. At the start of the campaign I was on 86. I am proud to report I am now on 82, but to be on target I should now be on 81.
If the Rodent Government falls News Ltd journalists will turn on him like a shark on a bleeding fish. They will hate him for losing and leaving their right-wing bias nothing to suck on. He would have spoiled their long 11 years of lazing around wallowing in self-importance.
It won’t be pretty – they will gut Howard from top to bottom and throw his carcass in the sewer afterwards.
Pi @ 1038,
Whether ESJ is a lawyer or not is surely totally irrelevant.
Non-lawyers can have opinions, too, you know!
The “mainstream media” does NOT equate with four or five columnists on The Australian, as a casual reader of this blog might assume. We happen to have a very good broadsheet daily here in Melbourne. I don’t agree with everything it says, but it gives fair and extensive coverage of the election and has a range of intelligent commentary representing various points of view. No-one in Melbourne needs to read The Australian, a very poor paper, and I’m amazed anyone buys it. The same is true in Sydney and Canberra. I realise those of you in BAPH-land don’t have the same advantages, but you can always get your news off the web. Since we all agree that The Australian is crap, perhaps we can agree to STOP TALKING ABOUT IT ALL THE GODDAM TIME.
Where, Pi, where?
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