• Glenn Milne reports in the Sunday News Limited papers that “definitive” Labor polling “shows voter reaction to Mr Howard’s retirement plans has become a ‘blocker’ to the Coalition’s other campaign messages, devaluing the Government’s promises and policies in all key areas”.
• In the wake of Wednesday’s interest rate rise, much was said of marginal seats suffering high levels of mortgage stress. Nassim Khadem of The Age pointed to a concentration of such seats in the 5 per cent to 10 per cent range in Victoria, including La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen. The Sydney Morning Herald noted that affected seats in and around Sydney included Lindsay and Parramatta, now all but written off for the Liberals, along with Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur.
• Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote on Wednesday that “confident Labor strategists are predicting an upset victory in Danna Vale’s electorate” of Hughes, held with a margin of 8.5 per cent. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named it with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian is always good for a dose of cold water. On Wednesday he related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that “NSW Labor Party polling in marginal seats is not as strong as published polling”. Aquilina would only say that Labor “would win the western suburbs seat of Lindsay and had a chance in Macarthur, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, but he doubted they could pick up more”. Labor’s chances in Bennelong and Wentworth were not rated, and talk of Robertson was dismissed as “a lot of hype”.
• The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reports that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.
• In Eden-Monaro, Labor has promised to spend $23 million from Defence Department funds upgrading the road from Queanbeyan to the Joint Operations Command headquarters, which the government stationed in Bungendore in an especially shameless act of marginal seat pork-barrelling. Andrew Fraser of the Canberra Times notes Labor has failed to provide funding for the more dangerous section of the road from Braidwood to Batemans Bay, the business end of which has been redistributed to the almost-safe Liberal seat of Gilmore.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age detects good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in McEwen, La Trobe, Corangamite and McMillan. This is because the increases have been concentrated in the urban areas of these mixed electorates, which are the stronger for Labor. Even bigger increases have been recorded in Bennelong and Wentworth, though the impact here is harder to read. Jenna Price of the Canberra Times also notes a sharp increase in enrolment in the Australian Capital Territory, suggesting this increases the chances of a Greens Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Andrew Burrell of the Australian Financial Review reports that “the Labor Party has launched a prime-time television advertising blitz aimed at saving the highly marginal Western Australian seat of Cowan, amid mounting fears that the retirement of popular MP Graham Edwards could deliver it to the Coalition”. With further Labor advertising focusing on Stirling, Burrell discerns “a sign that Labor is behind in those seats”, and is conversely confident of gaining Hasluck and retaining Swan and Brand (the latter of which has been the subject of some slightly surprising recent chatter). The report also says “ALP figures privately doubt the veracity” of the recent Westpoll survey showing them trailing in Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. Those three electorates plus Swan have been the targets of the Perth variations on Liberal marginal seat television ads.
• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports that the Greens decided on Friday to direct preferences to Labor in every Victorian seat, which it has never done before. The decision was apparently made after Lindsay Tanner succeeded in embarrassing the Greens over split-ticket how-to-vote cards being distributed at a pre-poll booth in Menzies, held by bete-noir of the left Kevin Andrews.
• Sam Strutt of the Courier-Mail reports of “polling indicating a huge swing” in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which Peter Slipper holds for the Liberals on a margin of 11.4 per cent.
• The verdict from the wind chimes merchants of Dobell is in: “Everyone knows when Labor is in unions run the country”. Ken Ticehurst remains remarkably media-shy.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian peruses a Poll Bludger comments thread. All good fun in my view, but the folk at Club Bloggery are not taking it lying down.
1,127 Comments
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Exactement, paul k.
Hey Pancho, local authorities are pretty tough on rodent infestations, suspect not long.
I stopped buying newspapers from one particular organisation ages ago. The journalism is poor, misleading and factually wrong. You do your money, it gives you the sh*ts and you get your hands dirty from turning the pages.
Newspapers as oppossed to the net is a bit like the Dessicated Coconut and Rudd, OUT WITH THE OLD AND IN WITH THE NEW!
“Piers is going to be up the creek if the ALP win after what he pulled on Rudd a few weeks back”
Piers is going to be fine, so will be Bolt and all the others. When Rupert departs the mortal coil and News is carved up and the Australian newspapers have a new owner is the only chance of real change in these newspapers.
So scaper any update on your teaser post from yesterday?
Its a bit silly the clamis on here that the media is on Howards side. From what I can see the ABC, Channel seven, Channel nine, channel 10, The Age, SMH all favour the Wax Farmer. But you lot complain that the murdoch newspapers are barracking for Howard. They seem to be fairly balanced if you ask me.
Using the generic contact form you can put in the name of the program, and you
can tick the box to request a response.
Love the headlines on the Tel and Sunday Mails around the country. “Julia’s Broken Heart”
It may have been an attempt at smear, but it has been spun in the headlines like she is Lizzy Bennett getting taken in by George Wickham.
Pure gold. I’m thinking 90 seats if the Libs keep helping out the ALP this way.
This looks like another Site to watch on election day
http://orgburo.com/elections/electionnight.php?select=Bennelong
For info on the site checkout
http://ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1667
Howard is worried about the Orang Utans in Indonesia, yet Australia has the worst mammal extinction record in the world:
http://www.awc.org.au/wildlifeextinctioncrisis2.asp
Rudd should try and keep the focus of the last few weeks on issues such as conservation by applauding Howard’s initiative and by agreeing to increase the funds by the same amount to target those species threatened in Australia.
Grog, is that a crush for Lenore that I detect?
Is it just me, or is the tone and nature of this forum going down hill?
i was a bit distracted this morning but did Paul Kelly actually give a nod of approval to Rudd in his intro piece for the “Insiders”?
Isabella,
Dana Vale was promoted – for a short time only – and she clearly isn’t talented, in fact she’s a knob.
The Liberal Party is beholden to its various factions, most notably the far-right ratbag Christian faction.
I love that our national broadcaster stops for two minutes on this day of remembrance. and the last post to end it. lest we forget.
No, I think this article by a cadet called Sharri Markson – who has in the past used fraud and misrepresentation to get access to her subjects who lay injured in hospital see http://www.theage.com.au/news/creative–media/media-soiled-in-london-terror-trickery/2005/07/17/1121538866727.html
- takes the cake for the sleaziest peace of the year.
Sharri’s piece in the Sunday Telecrap about Mark Latham is vomit inducing. Sharri specialises in invading people’s privacy, going through garbage bins and and hanging around people’s homes with binoculars.
Among other discoveries she makes is that Mark Latham paid $540,000 for what he calls an exclusive mansion with wraparound windows.
She also noticed from a distance through electric gates that he wore a towel in Wests Tigers colours on the way to his own swimming pool.
“The long drive is guarded by iron gates, an electric fence and an intercom to keep out unwanted visitors,” she tells us breathlessly in her scoop.
No wonder, with vermin like her hanging around the place. If it were me I would also have a shottie handy.
Check it out shootin’ viewers:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22737893-5006009,00.html
I’ve nutted the Piers Wackerman thing, Rupert like his Journos to write to about year 10 level, you know, lack of logic, I recon, I heard down at the corner, stuff, . So he gets people who naturally reflect this.
Clearly we are getting bored, so a little story.
Two millionaire Liberal voters are in the backroom of the Melbourne club, one turns to the other one and says, Charles old chap, when through all the struggle of business did you realise that you had turned the corner and made it?
To which Charles repied, “Well James old chum, its was during vacation from the old Grammer school, Daddy took me to the factory and said, Charles my boy, one day this will be all yours!
Re the Flemington Vox Pop on Insiders, Red Wombat at post 168 says: “Maybe they should have spoken to horse trainers from NSW..”
I reckon they should have spoken to the horses.
Any answers obtained would sure as hell have made more sense than what fell from the horses’ a*ses they did interview.
Unusually for me, can I try to introduce a pseph-related topic? We hear a lot about swings for parties. We also a lot about individual candidates merits. I was under the impression that a sitting member who was well-liked and worked hard in their electorate could only hold out 3% maximum against a swing. This would give Turnbull, Pyne etc a lot of problems. Do the candidates really matter that much?
Returning to a topic of yesterday for a moment about Labor’s seemingly long-delayed attack (and defence-to-Libs’-attack) advertising onslaught.
I’ve seen a few reports now that Labor has cracked up the warchest and is now spending up big, but in specific seats (eg Cowan, as per AFR report; and Eden-Monaro, as per somebody’s observation here yesterday).
Do other people have similar observations from their seats? Could it be that Labor’s TVCs are highly localised and targeted? Or (since I do not have a telly) has Labor now begun its blitz across Sydney and Melbourne metro.
Also nice to see the ACTU has apparently begun a blitz of its own.
OK, For Balance,
Two socialist, Bert and Harold.
Bert, “Harold, if you had two houses what would you do?
H, “Bert, I’d keep one and give the other to the poor”
B, “What if you had two cars?
H, “keep one and give one to the Poor!”
B, “Two chooks?”
H, “I’d keep both!”
B, “Why”
H, “I’ve got two chooks”
who’s NRM research? I just got polled.
Nationalist Rights Movement, a front for the Liberal Party? [joke]
That’s a real knee slapper FtP
Usual questions, but before they asked for voting intention they asked heading in the right direction.
Thank you ruawake #169.
That was GOLD. I didn’t know Piers was an ex cocaine addict. Latham may not have been loved but he knew how to ‘thrust’ a knife!
Podcast of today’s Insiders: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r199061_760095.mp3
What was so delicious about Leonore Taylor skewering Piers’ bloated hyperbole this morning was the quiet, calm wryness she employed. With very few words, she politely demonstrated that he’s an insufferable and hypocritical bore.
Love your work, Leonore!
Roy Morgan?
yeah, it could be actually… N (dont’ know) Roy Morgan… NRM.
Sounds like Lib party internal polling to me. Morgan does f2f at weekends, not phone.
I see I got quoted by Samantha Maiden…. not sure whether to feel honoured or scared!
ruawake @ 169
Thanks for the Latham Hansard reference – a great read.
They had a really dodgy interest rate question, “do you agree or disagree that in uncertain times, with financial instability, that it is to risky for labor to manage interest rates into the future?”, or something similiar to that anyway.
RE insiders
I think it is good that they have the right-wing cheer squad on Insider’s panel. These guys always make fools of themselves on national TV and thus they do their cause no good at all. As long as we have likes of Lenore and Barry to expose them for what they are, I have no problem with the ‘balance’ approach.
Blackbird – it sounds more like internal polling to me.
Interesting point about WorkChoices and the 2004 election.
Yesterday, someone showed me a Courier Mail article outlining all the key Coalition policies released during the 2004 election campaign. It was sort of a ‘wrap up for the last week’ sort of thing.
Any mention of the policies vis a vis Workchoices, I hear you ask?
No. None. Zip. Nada. Nil. Nothing. It is totally silent.
66 Diogenes
Thanks for pointing out the editorial in Sunday Mail. I never read SM- but this was brilliant and spot-on!
Janette loves the odd execution
For crimes that deserve retribution.
When she’s forced to retreat
From Kirribilli post-defeat
They’ll find a dead rodent: electrocution.
I suspect that it is far more likely in general to be polled by an internal party pollster than it is by a public pollster. Internal party polls run everyday from both sides in marginal seats.
Meet The Press, Channel Ten, 12 August 2007
legacy.ten.com.au/library/documents/MTP1208.doc
Oh. My. God.
I am still wiping the tears from my cheeks after watching that Oranguatang clip posted earlier (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ev6zrVV_UQ). It was high camp of the highest order.
It was meant to show him as warm and compassionate but the overall impression was of a slightly conflicted sex offender! Rodent could barely move he was so uncomfortable. That tragically forced grin, the too-large, too-formal suit, and the awkward, minder-induced body contact. Disingenuous much???What a cold, hard, WASPy puritan he is.
But best of all was the cheesy, mawkish, overcooked, dated Family Ties/Diff’rent Strokes narrative that the entire episode was written around. For make no mistake, this whole thing was a confected, scripted, campaign set piece that was directed like a piece of cinema. Howard making a special one-on-one visit to Little Timmy with a Terrible Illness, who has one single wish to create a better world…….for orangutans. Convenes special Cabinet Meeting to grant Timmy’s one wish. Gives him a hug (cue live studio audience going “ooohhhhhhhh”). High fives the neighbourhood children. Voiceover mentions that Timmy is Terribly Ill but has a Bright Future Ahead of Him. Just Like The Orangutans.
219 Betamax No the ALP has not started its advertising blitz. I have had the cricket on all morning. Not one political ad in Melbourne. What’s wrong with them don’t they want to win? I will be having a lot to say tomorrow.
I can just imagine the instructions to Howard.
‘now sir, when you go inside, dont shake hands with the boy – give him a big hug’……….
It’s all too funny.
On the Diff’rent Strokes, theme Betamax, I wonder if Costello upon hearing Howard’s orangutang proposal said: “Wachoo talkin’ about Howard?”
I taped the Sunday program while watching Insiders and have just played the tape. There is an absolutely sensational segment on land use featuring Peter Andrews and the land reclamation movement he describes in his book “Back from the Brink”. There has been no interest from ANY politician in what he and his supporters are doing – but active support from Gerry Harvey and many other pastoralists. I don’t know if this is availble on ninemsn but it is too relevant to the next agricultural and water policy to ignore.
Im on the Sunshine coast this weekend havn’t seen that many ALP ads here at all. Same when im home in Flynn. I think ALP have given up on Flynn + hinkler and know they are a no chance in Fisher and fairfax.
I wonder if the idea came from an aboriginal child in Redfern would Howard have turned up?
Rupert said he would not be backing either side this election. Hate to see it when was being partisan.
BrissyRod
Yeah. Makes my blood boil … string of expletive deleteds ….
BTW: Yesterday’s hard-copy version of The Australian carries a pic on Page 7 that is really scarey … I almost puked.
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