Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.
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Bizarrely, the Daily Telegraph has accompanied this story about a poll with an online poll, asking voters whether they thought Howard can hang on.
This is becoming incestuous and cannibalistic.
(But if you must know, 73% say he’s stuffed. This is on 83 votes.)
Herbert may well be indicative of the ‘defence’ vote. Being an ex-ADF officer, I know there is widespread disquiet amongst many in the services who feel they have been used as pawns by Howard in his attempts to brown-nose Dubya, and resent his attempts to use any defence-related opportunity for a photo-op. And Nelson and the FA-18 purchase scandal (it was for a good cause, Peacock is chairman of Boeing right?) was seen as political interference in defence matters of the worst sort. When the rodent’s most cherished constituency start to desert him, you know he’s gorn. Just leaves the over-65’s wasting away in retirement homes who still hold a candle for the soon-to-be-superannuant. Quite fitting actually. Poetic, even.
Twelve days to go:
“On the twelfth day of the election the PM porked me with.
Five hundred thousand dollars for Indonesian Orangutans.”
Re 964 (from last nights thread)
Harold Says:
Harold, my 18 and 21 yo children live back in the USA. However, both are registered and quite firmly in Hillary Clinton’s camp. If I had any children who voted Republican, I would consider that a failure on my part
Rats in the Mist
New Newspoll out – 55-45 (up 2 iirc). Nothing’s really changing.
Of course, the Dennis says Howard stil eelads comfortably in the “crucial” economic management stakes.
12 days from an election, I’d have thought the “crucial” question would be “Who are you going to vote for?” but then again I don’t own Newpoll and therefore do not understand it, I guess.
“still leads:
6 Burgey – Or as they say in Lancashire, “Ee lads, that Howard’s boogered it oop now”.
Anyone who lives in Bennelong should write a letter to the editor saying, “What have you got planned for Feb 23rd, make sure its not voting in a by-election, do it in one go”
Burgey: No, Newspoll is right, there was apparently a constitutional change that got through without us knowing.
I guess the big shock that was in store for the Bennelong poll was that it was all hype.
Morning all,
Is there a link somewhere to read the FULL TEXT of the letter that Fraser and Whitlam wrote? I linked to Google this morning and found a few articles from the various papers with snippets of what they wrote and the reporters spin, but nowhere have I been able to find a full copy of the letter.
Off to the gym now, hopefully PB’s will help me with a link by the time I get back
Cheers 
Herbert would be a nice gain for Labor. George Colbran certainly doesn’t fit the “Evil Union Bosses” tag.
Julie, here’s the letter, which is fairly dry:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ministerial_accountability_transcends_party_politics/
The extra comments by Fraser in some of the reports about the letter are more pointed (I recall him mentioning AWB and Andrews specifically).
Had to chuckle at the quite passionate reponse by Kevvie tho:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ministerial_accountability_transcends_party_politics/
Julie @ 12
Oh dear, the daily Terror strikes fear into the heart of the electors of Bennelong! What a crock of the proverbial stuff.
Another week of this and the conservatives will be foaming at the mouth and falling to the ground in shuddering spasms with their entire lives flashing before their eyes.
It’s going to be a sight to behold. Bring it on!
Kirribilli Removals: I love your username mate! You’ll be helping John and Janette vacate to the dregs of Woolstonecraft on November 25?
Well, HH, we’ve already had a call from Hyacinth, and she’s “not happy John” if you know what I mean! In fact she was pretty caustic, and said something about the old man could go and live with “that woman” if she has to leave the harbour house.
In the words of Carol Bayer Saga’s song:
Pack up your portrait of the Queen, you’re moving out to day!
Went to a dinner party on Saturday night and convinced two swingers from Eastwood (bennelong) to vote for Maxine. Took my all bloody night and had to stay sober. Swingers are selfish buggers: “what’s in it for me?”
Interesting though, I was told that the Rodent has been school fetes and charity evenings all over the electorate. Maxine has been doing similar work, but the complaint was that kevin has not showed up in the electorate. Is there some sort of “gentleman’s agreement” that leaders do not campaign in each other’s electorate?
Sharkbait, I’m pretty certain Howard has been in Griffith a while back. Oh, you did say “gentleman”, didn’t you
You’d have to expect at least one inspection of Kirribilli House by the new applicant before the Rodent expires.
(Yes, I know Kev won’t bludge on the nation’s generosity, but just for humour’s sake!)
A walk through Bennelong must be on Kev’s itinerary, just to ‘mess with’ the rodent’s mind.
All you labor will be crying on the election night when the Coalition hold on!
Labor = lol
Coalition = moving Australia forward
I’m sure Rudd will visit Bennelong before the election, perhaps on November 23 for a big final campaign rally with Maxine?
Think Rudd might be avoiding Bennelong to avoid the suggestion of hubris. Even though it’s a marginal I’m not sure the swingers will see it as such.
Ave it 07. Don’t you ever have anything interesting to say?
NB: Rudd presumably will be spending more time in QLD in the next 2 weeks?
HH: You’d think so, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see significant time in NSW plus a couple of fly through visits to WA, TAS and VIC. At least that’s where it looks like being won or lost.
Rudd won’t be coming to Berowra: that’s what you get for living in a safe Liberal seat.
25 BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!! You Labor still scared cos u gonna lose!
Labor = desperate
Liberal = top choice for Australia!
Ave: Scared? I guess thats why a bought a bottle of Verve on the way back from my business trip last week – to drown my sorrows. Wont be opened until Labor wins an election – in less than two weeks.
HH: I share your pain, live in Kingsford Smith.
NB – business trip? You still looking for a job?
IF labor win there will be more public sector jobs at A$50,000 pa – you MAY be suited for that!
LOL all labor supporters!
NB: you can vote for a living legend!
I’ve got the walking skull!
Ave it 07
Libs = stale ideas and self-interest
Labor = the future and compassion
Apparently it’s not just in Higgins that there are no balls. Centrebet has finding a tory with balls @ $26.50. I think we should all put money on it
HH
Was in Berowra. After the redistribution am now in Bradfield. Have gone from the downright evil to the complete incompetent yet still my vote wont count for much.
Ave it 07:
Labor = focused on winning an election
Liberal = focused on orang-utans
Ave: “IF labor win…”
Still delusional I see
Harold: you swapped one dud for another!
Does anyone still remind Nelson he used to be a member of the ALP?
Ave-it – yes, we’ll be crying if labor lose, no doubt about it.
And no doubt that it might happen yet.
We can hope though!
34 – OI what u doin in LDN – u are near me! Cant believe u were allowed in
37 – ha aha almost funny (for your level)
38 – hehe (George u are funny)
Hey Ave… take a F#@$ off pill please !
dont like to boast but i’m in Griffith with the main man.
same here MM
HH
Nelson is the forgotten man of the campaign. They are keeping him in a locked box somewhere. Ruddock too for that matter.
So today is the last hurdle. If Howard does well with MOB (mother of all bribes) then he will peg back 2%, to finally finish 53/47. If not then no bounce and a whitewash at 55/45.
I think the former will happen, with a modest pick up of btw 80 and 85 seats.
I’m still sticking to 87 seats centaur_007, can’t see much happening for Howard in the way of a bounce back, even with the pork-a-minute announcements he’ll be making today
Polls of 200 people is just as accountable as a ‘focus group’ of 7 people. While I do believe Herbert will go the way of winning side, I don’t believe the Bennelong stuff.
I do wish I was back in Townsville to give Colbran that one extra vote to make sure he gets over the line. He is a really nice guy, and is no ring in. He has been a member of the party for years, long before he moved to Townsville and brought the Maccas with him.
One of the consequences of downgrading the “campaign launch” to just another campaign event very close to the election is that it no longer has any real impact. In Whitlam’s day the launch was at the start of the campaign, it was at night and televised, and everyone watched. Now it’s just a feed-in for the 6pm news. Whatever Howard says will get a run on the TV tonight and a day of adulatory headlines in the Murdoch press, but the voters will hardly take notice, since most of them are thoroughly sick of the campaign already. In any case they’ve stopped listening to Howard. It’s hard to see what he could say or do that would get him a “bounce” – he could promise to pave the streets with gold and (a) not many would notice and (b) even fewer would believe him. In any case whatever he does Rudd will trump him on Wednesday. Rudd now has the momentum and holds the cards. It’s a cruel fact of politics that once you’re behind there’s very little you can do to catch up.
Kroger and Hawker were on with Trioli on ABC Sydney Local 702 before the cricket idiot session with Kerry O’Keefe. Kroger manfully stuck to the party line of inexperience but also suggested that the incumbency factor was worth 4% in individual electorates which he characterised by the undecided voter entering the booth with a ballot paper, recognising the incumbent’s name and deciding to vote for the name they knew.
Is this clutching at straws or what? This may have been true before they put party names on the Reps ballots but it seems to be somewhat fanciful to me.
It’s good to see that Labor are trying to directly counter the myth about the government being a great economic manager. Their latest advertisement is on howardfacts.com. I presume that it will appear on television (?).
http://www.howardfacts.com/
As a long-time Herbert-watcher, I’d argue that both parties actions speak louder than polls.
Exhibit 1: The PM hasn’t been up there yet, But K07 has been to Cairns, Townsville and everywhere in between. No one is going to dislodge Katter (Kennedy) or Kelly (Dawson) in neighbouring seats, but Labor obviously thinks that they’re very competitive the tropical city-based electorates. The Libs’ seem to be husbanding their strength by going hard down south in electorates like Ryan and Blair (!)
Exhibit 2: Peter Lindsay has openly been making promises that have not been pre-approved by the boss – on roads, sporting facilities and walkways – suggesting that he doesn’t have ready access to the pork fighting funds. Crucially, he hasn’t chosen yet to match Colbran’s relatively piddling $20 Mil promise to help secure a popular V8 supercar race up there.
The poll itself is no big deal, though not good news for the Libs obviously. What’s really more important is the leaked internal ALP funding that showed Colbran ahead in Lindsay before the campaign had started. He’s popular for his support of local causes and personal success. He’s got party support and his own money to spend from his Maccas empire. He’s also firming in the betting.
When Herbert swings, it swings, baby, and the voters there have elected a member from the governing party in every election since 1972. My bet is that it’s been written off by the gov’t – on a 6.5% margin it’s still outside the firewall.
Adam you are talking about an electorate that for an extra $20 a week you get a 2% bounce in the poll (ah the old dead cat bounce). That when you think about it is unbelievable.
They will get a bounce again
Rudd already had a campaign launch back in early October when everyone was getting impatient with Howard’s dithering over calling the election. I guess he is having a second one now (wednesday).
I won’t be surprised if more people tune into Rudd’s campaign speech than they do to Howard’s. I think there a lot more people interested in what Rudd has to say, especially now that the vast majority expect him to be PM in less than two weeks. Rudd’s budget reply back in May got a larger television audience than Costello’s actual budget speech.
Sorry, centaur, I’ve no idea what you mean. Extra $20 a week of what? What is unbelievable? Who will get a bounce, and why?
Howard: Vote for me or else the orangutan gets it!
This is grotesque stuff, and it sure tickled David Marr’s funny bone on Insiders yesterday.
Funny, but the cane toad to his (far!) right didn’t seem to get the joke. Cane toads are such humourless creatures.
14 & 15,
Thanks much
:):) …. Dry or not, I wanted to see it 
Kroger is just making things up as he goes along. In urban seats, the “sitting member factor” is worth 2% at the most, and that’s only for sitting members with positive images. A hard worker like Billson might get 2%. A log like Ticehurst will get 0%. Damaged goods like Laming will get minus 2%, and so on. None of this dodging and wriggling alters the historically proved fact that if there is a big swing the urban seats go down like dominoes.
Ruddock was let out last night for an interview with David Spears on the 9:30pm Agenda program. Didn’t hear what he had to say because I couldn’t get my finger off of the mute button
Thank you Jason for your ‘local knowledge’ of Herbert. As A QLDer I wasn’t aware that it was also a bellwether seat. I guess those southerners only focus on Eden-Monaro. Chalk one more up for ‘THE RUDDSTER’!
Thanks aussieguru – though of course I meant 1975 ooops.
close enuff!! lol
Went to a candidates’ forum for Chifley in the sylvan suburb of Bidwill yesterday. Only four out of nine turned up ALP, GRN, CDP and SEP. ONP’s candidate, a bar attendant, was working, That left the three others uncaring enough not to even bother sending an apology.
Most notable of those absent was carpet bagger, Jess Diaz who is standing in the Liberal interest. Diaz is a lawyer a(nd interestingly the bro’ of the 1969 Miss Universe, Gloria Diaz).
Diaz has net been seen at any forum for candidates in Chifley other than the SBS Indigenous Issues in Blacktown forum. Not even one organised by the Filipino community of which Diaz claims to be a leader.
Chifley is safe Labour but one would think that Diaz who would have to be prepping for a run in Blacktown’s Ward 5 again would turn up to these things even to just to shore up the Senate vote.
William
Senate Victoria
Any Senate/ State wide Party polls due next week?
Analysis of Victoria ATL tickets does not look stri9ng for Labor who needs at least 41% of the vote. The ALP looks more then less needs to secure all three quotas without help from any minor parties to secure three.
Depending on how strong the Liberals are the results is looking like a three Coalition and three Labor. If Labor polls below 41% then the Greens get up, If the Liberals poll below 37% (The Greens are elected on the strength of Liberal preferences and the ALP becomes the wasted quota). Family first would need to increase their vote to above 4% to be in the running and the LP is out of contention. The Democrats are just just a feeder for the Greens.
With the Greens needing to match their 2004 results at around 8.5%. Feedback from those in the know say the Greens are not doing as well as they did in 2004 they could readily become the wasted quota If the ALP polls strong and the Liberal vote does not drop below 37% primary statewide.
The initial data was showing a very close outcome indeed within 0.5% in Victoria.
A full detailed poll showing the state of each party state by state should provide the most likely outcome.
Love that new ad attacking the Libs economic management. Nice to see the ALP get some cojones on that issue. Rodent wont have been expecting to be fighting hand to hand behind his own imagined lines.
Sorry above should read DLP out of the game. They feed to Family first… estimated to be around 1.5 to 2.5% not enough to climb above the pack towards the end… There are reports of a strong consolidation around the major parties with little support showing for minor parties.
Adam @ 49 Does not the official Party launch switch off the tap for Government flights and ministerial benefits… This could be one reason why the campaign launch is latter and not much of a show stopper/starter…
By the way, aussieguru – check out the record on leichhardt (based on Cairns) – that *has* been a bellwether since 1972. Things have gone pear-shaped on the conservative side, where there’s a three-cornered contest following the retirement of Warren Entsch (I’ve written about it here (link). Anyway, it’s another place that the PM’s avoided.
STOP PRESS: Rudd’s in Townsville AGAIN this morning.
Melb city. That is spot on. Once the “official” launch happens MP’s have to fund their campaign solely on party funds. This affects the Libs more than Labor, as labor have the unions backing thme heavily.
I would like to see it changed so that you launch within 14 days from the date of dissolution (this is mainly to give oppositions and minor parties time to get their act together).
Judging by the timing of this years, it would mean campaigns are restricted to about 4 weeeks. First 2 weeks leading up to official launch paid by the taxpayer, the 2 subsequent weeks paid by the parties.
And lets face it, 4 week campaigns would be a god send for all of us. this one has been going on long enough.
Jason you are our PB’s official North QLD correspondent. Your more a Guru than I am! Thanks. Rudd power – gets all stains OUT )-: !!
(-: sorry!
Albert re 50 – I think that Kroger’s argument re local candidates is a case of ‘clutching at straws’. I was listening to Bevan and Abraham interviewing the candidates for the Adelaide seat of Makin, Bob Day and Tony Zappia, on ABC891 this morning. At one point there was a segment where Makin voters were asked who the local candidates were and they either didn’t know or didn’t care who they were – all the voters on this segment said they were voting for either Howard or Rudd.
Presumably Kroger is saying something, anything, vaguely plausible to keep the party workers thinking that there is some point to it all.
When Labor get in I hope it is on the primary vote in each of the key seats that we need to win.
I don’t like that we have had to make prerference deals with the devil (the Greens) to gain lower and upper house seats.
The Greens have pushed the idiology boat “out too far” and I don’t want the party beholden to a lunatic far left fringe.
Jason: Do you think Herbert has become another NQ bellwether? I know it went to the ALP in 83 and to the Libs in 96. I’ve been amazed how the fact that Townsville city council, the 3 State seats are all Labor but federally it’s Liberal. I think Adam pointed out that Herbert has contracted in size due to more people living within the city boundaries so there are less rural voters. Let me know what you think, as I still a bit fond of where I grew up.
has anyone read Milne’s piece in the GG today. He’s on the Chicken ‘Lil bandwagon! The sky’s a fallin’, the sky’s a fallin!!
He really is ridiculous.
Melbcity, so far as I know that is a myth. The campaign launch has no official status and no relevance to anyone’s entitlements.
Seems Rudd is going to make a defence policy announcement while in Townsville, as he is out at Lavarack Barracks. This would be very interesting indeed, but making an announcement on the Libs policy launch day could mean it won’t get much attention unless it’s a big announcement.
Did anyone hear Malcom Fraser being interviewed by Fran Kelly this monrning. She quickly got the ministerial accountability stuff out of the way and then said: “gerard henderson thinks that you’ve moved so far to the left that you vote for Labor, do you?” Fraser dismissed the question (’who I vote for is my business’) and was so p’d off that he didn’t say thanks or goodbye when Kelly then ended the interview. It was truly embarresing and pathetic, the sort of thing you’d expect tracy Grimshaw to ask and she knew it. Howard’s ABC.
Newspoll publication on 8 Nov confirms that the electorate is consolidating around the major parties. The Greens in Victoria are well below their threshold on 7%, ALP at or above 42-43% and the Liberals holding on around 40% I expect all other minor parties will poll about the same as in 2004 total 5%. Greens lose out. ALP/LIB 3 all.
#78 I’m with Adam. The campaign launches means nothing. They’re a waste of space being held at the end of the campaign, three weeks after the debate.
Every candidate in every seat would have their own personal “campaign launch”, and the Nats would have a separate launch from the Libs (has it happened yet?).
I would have though that, once the election was called, all campaigns have to be funded by the parties, not the taxpayers. The taxpayers then reimburse the parties, post-election, on the basis of how many votes they get.
Milne on Costello “What if he’s telling the truth?”
Well Greg, what if he isn’t? What if he hasn’t got a clue? What if you’re just another tired old hack too deep in your cups to know which way is up, let alone whether the sky is falling or not?
Milne is a pile of steaming BS, and the US financial collapse has been, is going, and will be going on for years, this is certain.
But Peter Costello will not be the next treasurer and certainly not the next Prime Minister, and this too is certain.
So we’ve got one last question for Milne: So what?
Sean, I think it’s a very fair question to put to Fraser, and like the Fraser of old he just got snooty when put on the spot.
The ABC have been so thoroughly beaten by the illiberals that they seem to think that government cheerleading is balanced.
Keating hated the ABC but he never took to them the way that the Rodent has, no doubt the ABC will rediscover its ‘frank and fearless’ role when the ALP take office. The ABC obviously know that the progressives who make up more and more of the ALP’s support base would never accept any serious damage to ‘Aunty’ so they feel they can be a bit more ballsy with a Labor government.
What a pity that the ABC has prostituted itself so basely to the anti-intillectual, fact fearing troglodytes who make up the Liberal party.
Adam It was a bit of surprise to me also, re: the limit to travel applying at campaign launch. I would expect Ministers would have enough frequent flyer points to keep travelling anyway.
16 lower house seats is a lot to win and the swings have to be uniform to bring about a workable majority.
80 & 84,
Seems his no answer was more of an answer than he realized
[that little bit of info is good enough for me 
, just wish he could bring himself to say it publically though ]
Just saw a Liberal ad for Deakin that was rather interesting. It started off talking about Victorian roads (”Remember these headlines?” – broken toll promise, etc.) and how State Labor “had failed”. Then it talked about Wall-to-wall Labor, showed a map of Australia in red with state boundaries, and said, “Same Labor, same failure on roads.” Then something like “Only Liberals like Phil Barresi can be trusted with Victoria’s roads”.
My impression was that it was moderately incoherent – were they warning about wall-to-wall labor or talking about roads, which one? Also, it must be pretty desperate times when attacking state management roads is the best they can do.
I think it is definitely a bellwether, Will. It’s not only during changes of government that the seat reveals itself as a barometer: in the Beazley “close but no cigar” election of 1998, Lindsay clung on by less than 200 votes when namesake Ted – who he beat in ‘96 – recontested.
You’re right about the council and the state members being Labor and the Federal member being Lib. Mirrors the remainder of the country pretty well, no? There are two explanations for this IMHO
1. It’s “naturally” Labor-voting in some ways, but the Army base throws it out of wack – through the direct defence voting bloc that it brings about and through the importance of the base to businesses around town. Conventional wisdom holds that the coalition are big spenders on defence, and that soldiers and those who take their money are pro-coalition. Overseas deployments mean soldiers come back loaded with cash to spend. (NB that the base is now, I’m fairly certain, in the State seat of Burdekin rather than Townsville).
2. Personal votes are important – state members like Mike Reynolds (who had a stint as mayor) and Mayor Tony Mooney have benefitted from this at the State and local level, but at the Federal level the electorate seems much more happy to back a winner.
Let’s wait and see what the announcement is!
#80 Sean, that’s a perfectly sensible question to ask of Fraser. I really can’t see how it could be interpreted as some sort of ABC bias.
And Fraser’s refusal to answer it suggests it was worth asking.
Personally, I think former leaders of any party have no influence over elections, and would be better off shutting up.
The only one who’s really making a useful contribution to this election is Bob hawke. He’s not saying anything controversial, but is doing a oot of face-to-face campaigning for Labor in the marginals. He’s the only ex-leader who might actually win some votes for his party, instead of diverting attention from the party’s campaign.
RBA sounds warning on inflation
Interesting timing.
So, moving right along since there is little to see in the polling all year so far, anyone know when the next AC Nielsen is out??
I guess Morgan will have another telephone and face to face out Friday (would have to show a liberal fightback wouldn’t it??) but ACN seems to be the one to watch at the moment.
Adam – Relevant to what?? It was a completetly irrelevant, tabloid style question that jolted with the substantive issue that he was on the program to discuss. It smacked of the current coalition obsession with outing people as alligned to the labor party (or the unions) as a way of negating their opinions. Bad. How do you think Fran would react if someone asked her who she intends to vote for while she’s pontificating on the insiders couch on a sunday monrning. Blo.dy impertinence..
And its good to see someone get p.ssed occassionally with dumb questioning. The trained monkey politicians are usually too timid to say boo.
Antonio, quite right. Hawke has a towering ego, but he knows how to harness it to the party’s interests, unlike Keating, Fraser and Hewson, who mostly want to draw attention to their own cleverness. If Labor does OK in the Perth marginals, Hawke will get a good deal of the credit. To be fair, Gough has been very quiet. No doubt he’s at home brushing up on his French for when Kevin offers him the Paris embassy.
Antonio said:
Got to disagree with you on this one … Paul Keating’s Lateline stint was brilliant.
Fraser is by his own choice a public figure, and is subject to the same rules as all other public figures. If he doesn’t want to be asked political questions, he should stay out of politics. He’s an arrogant prick and always has been.
Hey, Sean – was Fraser drunk? Did he have his pants on?
does anyone know what the title of that tune Andrea Bocelli is famous for? you know the one… “its time to, say goodbye…” etc. I want to get a copy of it for election night so I can sing along after a six pack…
Daniel B @ 88
The anti toll road campaigning is interesting, because just a few weeks ago, when Rattus Rattus announced a roads policy, he said the roads to be built would be toll roads!
Ok – Adam rules: anyone who is a public figure and who makes a comment about politics or standards/ ethics should have to own up for who they’re gonna vote for.
We can then (joe Hockey style) neatly categorise and dismiss there opinion as partisan, prejudiced, unbalanced, ‘labor’ ‘leftist’, ‘right wing’ etc . Not sure that’s gonna work adam. No one would say anything..
adam @ 78 – on news radio a couple of weeks ago, a politics academic was talking about the campaign launch being the start of pollies having to foot their own travel etc bills – he seemed to know what he was talking about. does anyone have the definitive answer on this?
pastthe. i couldn’t find anything on the AEC site. but i didnt scour it either. but that was my understanding. Even ministers staffers who are all taxpayer funded can’t assist… it needs to be party staff doing the work. so its travel and staffing.
Returning to the topic of Bennelong, if Howard does scrape in but, as seems likely now, the Coalition loses, I hope Labor gives Maxine McKew another run in any subsequent by-election. Observing from afar (Adelaide) she (McKew) does not seem to have put a foot wrong, has worked very hard, and has clearly rattled the PM, who has acted in a most distracted way throughout the campaign. Given that McKew has effectively given up her own career to give Labor a chance in Bennelong, and appears capable, she should be shown some loyalty regardless of outcome.
I’m in Deakin and have just been polled by phone by a marketing company. Many questions on who I’m voting for generally and in the seat itself. Both Baressi and Symon were mentioned. Asked what issue I was most concerned about and who was better at handling education, environment the economy etc.
Seemed very professional in approach and not biased or any push polling going on. I asked if they could tell me who they are polling for but the interviewer said he didn’t know.
Gary: What’s your view on the likely result for Deakin at this stage of the campaign?
#96 Seems to me that the subject of how one intents to vote is a personal question. That is also supported by the principal of ballot boxes and anonymous voting.
Adam @# 96, your antipathy to Fraser, which I share, must mean you are of a certain age, that is, old enough to remember the events of October-November 1975.
The soft headedness of some people on the Left to Malcolm Fraser says more about them than him. I for one will never forgive Fraser, or for that matter, Renee Geyer, who sang the Liberal Party jingle, Turn on the Lights, in the ‘75 campaign.
That a former Liberal Prime Minister refuses to say that he will be voting Liberal is just extraordinary. Now Fraser is hated in some elements of the Liberal Party (Liberals always turn on their former leaders – watch what happens to Howard) but they did give him life membership just a few years ago.
Labor should make something on this – “Not even Malcolm Fraser votes Liberal anymore”.
Socrates @ 103,
It’s almost certain that McKew will run for Labor in a by-election if it happens soon after the election (i.e, if Howard wins his seat but loses government).
It’s also just as likely that McKew would win that by-election, unless the Liberals put up a star candidate (perhaps Turnbull if he loses Wentworth or possibly Kroger).
Spiros:
You’d actually be hard pressed to find any past leader or opposition leader that supports Howard.
Not even John Hewson likes him.
I know for certain the Your Rights at Work campaign has been very active in this seat, having once been to one of their meetings last year some time. They were going to target certain areas of the electorate.
My view is that Symon is in with a real chance here. House prices in my area have soared.
middleman@98
Time to Say Goodbye
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLHq7rgHOLk
Thank you Growler! i know its a song about lost love and all, but i think it will be fun to sing just as we are waiting for JWH to make his way to the stage at the Wentworth Hotel.
Andrew Robb on Sky dribbling shit again!
Any Bennelong bloggers here? Whats the latest intell from the ground?
Just on this point of ‘Campaign Launches’, the law on being in an ‘Office of Profit’ is quite clear and the judgements (in the case of Phil Cleary) also re-inforces the law. A person in an office of profit must resign from the point of nomination, not some ill-defined notion of ‘Campaign Launch’. I can’t see why this similar concept, which is what is all about, should not be applied in the exact same way.
The Lid is almost off!
hehe a little joke for the cats supporters out there
Go Rudd!
Davidoff and Sean…I don’t think former leaders should be required to say who they’re voting for, but it’s absurd to criticise someone for asking them, if they choose to enter the political debate
And as for Keating on Lateline- yes I saw him too, and he was quite entertaining. But whatever he says these days is only preaching to the converted. and not many people watching Lateline anyway – I doubt doubt that there are any votes to be swung by this program.
I think the appearance of Keating reminds people of high interest rates…just like Fraser reminds me of the dismissal and blocking supply, and the Vietnam war (yes I’m in that age group too).
I have some admiration for both Keating and Fraser in certain areas. But Rudd is more popular than Keating ever was, and I think even Howard now is more popular than Fraser was. So they should shut up, or do some door-knocking for their parties.
Dolly Downer Streaming on Sky news now!
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Also, just chucked my $100 free bet for Cheeseman to win Corrangamite…2.20 odds
.. With my $50 bet on maxine at 2.60 I’ve got a clear $300 rolling in if they both fall… *Let’s out a baited breath*
Anyone have any idea how likely Corrangamite is to fall to the Reds?
Trav.
Now, although there were a few moments back in 1992…
The Labor Party should include this picture in their campaign ads. Kind of sums it up really…..
did someone say the lib launch was on radio?
“Not even John Hewson likes him.”
Hewson has disliked Howard since he worked for him an adviser in the 1970s, so that isn’t news.
But Hewson would not hesitate to say that he is going to vote Liberal.
Greensborough Growler’
Your too kind picking ‘Time to say good bye’ as the Liberal party swan song. Too classy. I have chosen a more Australian sound that I think would resonate with the general public on how to see out the days of the Howard junta. I welcome suggestions & feedback as this topic is important.
Ladies & gentleman I give you ….(drum roll) – The Angels
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBOqYCOUZPg
94 Adam,
Gough is 90+ and not in the best of health. I think it is unlikely that Rudd would send him away as an ambassador.
121- what picture?
Jules @ 118
“Dolly Downer Streaming on Sky News now!”
Erk. Sounds really icky. Thought there were filters to block that sort of stuff …
Malcolm Fraser was absolutely entitled to be p*ssed off.
I’m not over the 1975 bitterness, and don’t think Fraser has changed much since then (instead, the country has chanegd around him as we have swung to the right).
But to ask someone who they are voting for it outrageous. Fran should be ashamed. For someone who used to be so well prepped every morning for every interview, she seems to be slipping a bit of late.
M
Julie 125 – I think Adam may have been joking
Ooops, the link didn’t work, I’ll try again…
Im with stupid
130 Eljenxo – that’s great! Love Janette ever-watching in the background. Wait, not love… but you know what I mean.
Howard has just said that the government is free of debt. I read some where that it’s a furphy that they’ve paid off all the debt. Can anyone confirm that the govt has no debt and if it does have some debt, how much?
I tend to doubt that Fraser votes Labor. Notice that whenever he criticises the government – for say, running roughshod over civil liberties – he’s usually quick to also criticise Labor for being supine in its opposition.
It might also help to know where he presently lives. Anyone know? I doubt he’d have any hesitation voting Liberal in the seat of Kooyong, for instance.
Michael and Adam,
If so, I apologize. I was behind the barn door when they passed out the “do you get the joke?” gene before I entered this life.
I am always the last one to “get it”
“Herbert may well be indicative of the ‘defence’ vote. Being an ex-ADF officer, I know there is widespread disquiet amongst many in the services who feel they have been used as pawns by Howard in his attempts to brown-nose Dubya, and resent his attempts to use any defence-related opportunity for a photo-op.”
What a crock.
I live in Townsville and really no one cares. I think there is a belief out there that foreign events such as Iraq has more effect in ADF cities like Townsville, but I just don’t buy it. Yes Townsville has a lot of army personell, but it really isn’t as important to Townsville as it has been in the past… it’s like a flea on a dog really.. this city has boomed and it’s mostly from the mining sector.
And having said that if you don’t like the Iraq War(thats me for example) then you won’t join the army in the first place.
I think Colbran will win because of concern about WhatChoices, and he has been very active campaigning and getting his image out there and Peter Lindsay is a bit of a dudd. Plus he has promised the V8 supercar race in Townsville, whereas Lindsay has been stalling for years(Townsville is a hoon city, dunno if the V8 promise is a big vote changer though)
middle man @ 102 – thanks. i’m sure you’re right. once the launch happens, it’s goodbye to spending taxpayers’ money. that’s why they leave the launch ’til so damn late…
130 Bronwyn
I guess Janette was standing back because she didn’t want to be photographed with stupid…
lmao @ 137 Eljenxo. Wish I thought of that first!
Derek Corbett. Classic! i almost spat out my lunch!
Aussieguru. “Time to say goodbye” was my idea. I just didnt know what it was called. The Growler showed his class by knowing. Didn’t open the Angels link but I can guess it was “Am I ever gonna see your face again?”
I’ll have to listen out for it pumping across the suburbs of Griffith in election night.
it really was an inspired decision to have maxine go against the rat, wasn’t it? it’s distracted the old grunter no end.
true to his promise, kevin has “played with john’s mind”.
ooh, “sinking ship” campaign launch about to begin…
Rat in Radio National now.
133,
Dredging out the cobwebs, about 8 to 10 years ago there was a rather extensive interview with Fraser and his wife (don’t know if she is still alive now or not) in the Australian Women’s Weekly (it was the cover story that month). At the time, we lived in the US and I subscribed to the AWW as a way to keep in touch with local information here. Anyways, to the point. The article said where he lived and I don’t know if he still lives at the same place or not but I will try to describe as much as I remember. It is in the NW of Melbourne, out of the city proper. Don’t remember what suburb specifically, but it is a ranch/farm of some sort and he has a decent amount of property, a few sheep, that sort of thing. It isn’t WAY out in NW VIC but the article described it at the time as being both “in the country and still within reach of Melbourne”. I don’t remember more than that but that ought to limit it down to a few seats or less in order for you to eliminate all but one or two electorates. [Of course, assuming he hasn't moved since that article was written]
Coalition campaign launch just starting now:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
I can’t believe I’m torturing myself by watching the Liberal launch online.
Aw great, stand up for the national anthem please. Ergh.
Linsay voter. It is somewhat of a furphy. When people talk about bonds, the highest class of bonds are usually Commonwealth bonds. These are know in finance as debt instruments. And yes the govt continues to issue them. At one stage Costello floated the idea of doing away with them, as the govt didn’y really need them, cos they didnt need to raise funds by borrowing. However the bond markets rely on them as their foundation, and the banks convinced him to continue issuing them.
That’s the worst synthesiser national anthem backing track of all time.
Oh my gosh Batman … this is awful … it’s like a bad game show … cringe-making crap … are they mad … who is that compere goose … this has Hyacinth’s paws all over it …
Got that right middle man!
147 – ShowsOn – wasn’t it?! And who is the owner of the AUssie Idol-style singing?!
OT but curious – I just looked up Antony Green’s election site to check on the senate lists. Faulkner’s name does not appear on any of the lists. What does this mean?
I think Malcolm Fraser now lives on the Mornington Peninsula, SW of Melb. About 60-90m minutes out of Melbourne. That would probably be in the electorate of Flinders.
He was formerly the member for Wannon, in south-west Victoria, and the family property is Nareen, near Hamilton.
Laborvoter @ 135
Because we may have varying opinions of whether there is or is not a shift in the ADF vote does not make my opinion a ‘crock’. Your apparent lack of respect for divergent opinions reflects behaviour more often associated with our friends on the conservative side of politics. However, given your vast experience of the ADF I will defer to your opinion wrt Herbert. Best.
Sorry Mornington Pensinsula is SE of Melbourne. It’s where Harold Holt went for the big swim.
ABC live streaming
http://abc.net.au/streaming/networktv.asx
Uh oh here we go, Costello’s on.
Especially in Coorparoo!
Re 142,
I have just had a good look at the AEC electorate map and based upon the information I remember, I would say Calwell or Lalor would be the electorate as they are the electorates to the NW once you leave the metropolitan area.
Oops! I looked up Victoria. He’s on the NSW list. He struck me as a Victorian all these years, not a NSW Right fug.
I see the “GO FOR GROWTH” slogan is back in favour.
#151 Presumably Faulker is not up for re-election this term. Senate terms are twice the HOR terms, so he’ll be on the ballot paper at the next federal election (presuming he stands again).
Julie – it’s most endearing
Boring!!!!!
#159 Pritam, you’ve answered your own question. Half the Senate is elected each election. That’s why there are still deomcrats in teh Senate, even though they got bugegrall votes last election.
163 – what’s boring? People who leave one-word comments with excessive exclamation marks?
should read “buggerall” of course. I’m typing too fast. Can’t keep up with this modern world.
163 – or is Costello boring? Because I agree.
Am I seeing things or do a bunch of people in the audience have life-jackets on?
I’ll summarise the themes of Costello’s speech:
1) Fear
2) Uncertainty
3) Doubt
the Tories are boring.
Was that GOUGH in the Audience??! WTF?!
Okay, finally got my free $100 bet credited – it must’ve been on some sort of manual approval, and duly put it on Maxine. There’s something funny going on with the Howard odds, given every available indicator, Maxine and John should be nearly equal… would it be possible to use the tax deductible political donations to put bets on? who regulates that?
Anyway, also put my $30 on that fellow from Herbert, the McDonalds man! He’s a good chance, regional towns love this sorta fella!
168 davidoff – lifejackets or self-administering poison capsules?
This seems to be a low passion election and this might assist Coalition MPs who are popular locally (or who face weaker Labor candidates) holding on, Hinkler & Boothby perhaps. But for every marginal the Coalition holds there will be one above the swing that goes.
169,
typical of Costello and the Libs … fear, fear, fear; they have only a one track message
….. has vindicated my decision to avoid the tv this afternoon. cricket is one wicket away from victory anyways, so am following on the cric info score window 
Costello’s speech would do a lot for the blue rinse lamington and scone makers that form the base of the Liberal Party, but I have no idea what it has to do with winning a federal election.
gee that was a thigh slapper Costello-’economic conservatives under the beds’.LMAO-Not
Costello got the positive stuff out of the way early, and now he’s just ramping up all the fear. It’s horrendous!
he’s not a great orator, is he? i’m nodding off. maybe he’s trying to hypnotise us.
smirky thinks he’s doing stand up comedy. well he is a joke after all.
This is so wrong. Costello is so boring he’s making me do some work.
Not really exciting stuff …
The faces and expressions of guests and speakers are more of those at a funeral or wake than a campaign launch. Says it all really doesn’t it?
DLP:
The Greens are are not a lunatic far left fringe – they are ideologically now like of the social democratic left – its just that what is radical is orthodox and both Labor and LIberal are of the right. The paradims have moved so much further to the Right, and if you have largely stayed the same….
You may want to go and see http://www.politicalcompass.org ………see Aust election 2007….making the Greens policies out to be extreme to dismiss them when what’s Radical Right is orthodox is not helpful…
If Ruddy won’t visit Bennelong what is to stop the soon-to-be deputy PM along with some of the other great ladies on the Labor front bench, Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong, Nicola Roxon blitzing Bennelong? All are intelligent and articulate ladies and certainly do not look like “union bosses”
listening on radio… Costello sounds pompous! Living in the past. Yesterday’s news mate, its yesterdays news.
“Your vote will have consequences….” nice fear work.
I sure hope they mention their Orangutan scheme! I hear the Orangutan vote will decide the election this year!
Hahhahah Costello just said he was part of a government “that abolished supperannuation for over 60s”. I think he meant they abolished TAX on supperannuation for over 60s.
It’s actually quite bizarre. Here is Costello talking to the Liberal faithful, doing his very best to maintain all the delusions over economic management and unions. The libs cheer it like fanatics… and there you have it: the parallel universe. They live in la-la land… this is the new era of the LOONY right.
This Tory hubris might play out well infront of the adoring minions but Im not sure about voter land. Yes it was the reforms of yesterday that have got us where we are-the Hawke/Keating reforms you lucky jammy Tories.
Why won’t someone challenge Costello on the 70% union bosses claim??
It’s been proven to be BS!
@132
The government has zero net debt. It otherwise has some $50+ Billion of debt on its books.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070509-Cossies-debt-free-furphy.html
Bird – true – but they’re not quite in the tradition of the liberal democrats in the UK. Perhaps we need a party like that here.
he really yells when he wants to make a point.so annoying.
Can some one put a Hitler mo & swastika to complete the picture!
And here come the clowns – Mr mark Vaile
I’m listening to the campaign launch on News Radio and this is completely bizarre! So, weird!
Who IS this dickhead compere?! He’s bloody irritating! (I better turn it off when the rodent comes on…)
99.2 Clark to Muralitharan, OUT, all over! Australia win by an innings and 40 runs! Murali backs away to a yorker-length delivery on the stumps, misses his shot, and the stumps are splayed!
M Muralitharan b Clark 4 (8b 0×4 0×6) SR: 50.00
I sure hope they bring out Alexander Downer! He’s a good vote-buyer, right?
*cough*
Rgee where ru?
why do the Nats hang out with this lot? they are treated like second class citizens.
“the family property is Nareen, near Hamilton”
Didn’t Fraser sell Nareen a few years back?
what the hell is that horrible noise in the background-a monkey playing a synthesiser? An Orang-U-Tan perhaps? Whatever it is, its bloody rank.
RGee – why is it weird? I can not see or hear it so I am relying on these second hand accounts.
I am watching it with the sound turned off as I refuse to listen to lies, spin and deceit. The faces and expressions of guests and speakers are more of those attending a funeral or a wake rather than a campaign launch.
This is the final farewell for the last true believers of Dear Leader Johnny Winston Howard….all so sad…and he could have gone out on top…unbeaten…
And yet he will leave a loser with his legacy destroyed…it is so sad it is funny!
i’m listening via news radio too.
Ave it o7 (22) Has William employed you for comedy relief?
notice all the empty seats?
the joint is half full
Mark Vale currently talking about hospital management.
Middle Man: Because the Nats lost their identity ages ago. They’re the bastard love child of the Liberals. They’re given attention when something in the bush is really needed. No wonder the Libs keep winning their seats. And WTF is it with them trying to get the young vote, is that because of that gay Nat guy who was in Big Brother a year or so ago?
I ve had to turn the stream off and go back to the radio. The urge to pick up my screen and smash it has proved too much. Horrible, lying negative Tories.
Hahahhahahh Vaile is hopelsss, has he looked up once yet?
15m fund for remote health skills training
The fake laughter/applause, the wives being introduced, Vaile having zero speaking skills… There is apparent inspiration or vision.
I’m in Melbourne AG01
OOH Communists from Vaille.
Thanks Dan and middleman. So when PJK handed the reins to JWH, what was the net debt position? 96 billion or much less?
Now talking about a national schools curriculum.
There is NO inspiration or vision … oops
Mark Vaile promises virtual uteruses for country obstetricians, I hope it doesn’t need broadband.
And he just called the ALP communists because of education revolution, gold!!!
Vaile is a twit… “Education Revolution sounds like something from a communist country”….
restating 1000 bursary scheme for remote students
Kevin Rudd…the Communist.
Vaile, you idiot.
passthepopcorn
Usual gig from Costello … no, he’s not a great orator … zzzzz … anyway, they have lowered the veil … this should be a hoot … zzzzzz … might have to check out the cricketing …
Can’t believe how inept this lib launch. It’s Woop Woop Municipal Council stuff … circa 1956.
220: Did he really use the word communists?
isn’t “bursary” a rather quaint term?
Most people think a commutist is someone who uses public transport to go to work.
Vaille – National Roads are YOUR responsibility why do they need to be fixed?
225 He sure did
What a world class goose Vaile is.
Has Howard spoken? What are they spend spend spending on? Or are they saving the Monkeys till last.
Where’s that bearded lady helen coonan?
Hmm.. William has D day, Possum has E day.
I’m going for J day
(Judgment day for fans of the Terminator series)
moving onto transport infrastructure and fuel
Vaile should have come down the aisle on his skateboard and done his speech in his gangsta baseball cap.
at least then he might have got a grab on the news tonight.
not with this drivel though.
5m on biofuels
Labor should employ Hawke’s tactic in 1983: a bit of irony and humour to attack the government’s overcooked fear campaign.
Labot are economic vandals, communists blah blah blah
it’s all so overdone that it plays into the narrative about the libs being desperate
You can finish the ad with Costello’s own line about Howard:
“He’ll spend anything, do anthing, say anything to win…”
(Perhaps that wasn’t the exact line, but that was the meaning)
Pritam #159 – Faulkner is a member of the soft left, not the right
Bring back Tim Fischer!
They can’t even organise their ’spontaneous’ applause properly. This isn’t a winner.
OMG how BORING is vaile
he’s going into boring figures
even the faithful look bored
Compelling…bucket please!
Mark Vaile.
He’s talking about petrol.
Ethanol – Something to give the cows as a laxative.
And for The Angels link:
Hopefully we’ll be singing
No way get f**ked f off
I love that even the audience aren’t sure whether to clap or not.
confusing size with strength
Hey, the cricket is over on 9 so they have gone to the Liberal launch. I hope 9 do this for Rudd on Wednesday.
Boy, you Libs lurking here must cringe when you hear that idiot Vaile describe Labor’s education revolution as a “communist plan” – what a tool.
More cheese please!
Tim Fischer is one of the few conservative politicians with any integrity in the Rodent’s band of wreckers. Disliked his politics, really like the man.
well – that wasn’t inspiring either
I could hear TV’s being switched off across the nation.
Howie must be next. Listening to this is gonna hurt!
5m on biofuels is sfa
Campbell Newman should get used to being the top gun at Liberal party events.
John Howard coming up now
The MC is a shocker, he’s really trying to sound enthuisiastic but its coming across as fake
what is this theme music?!?!?!?! sounds like the start of a soap opera!
here comes Howie!!
He comes the old fella.
I love to put that front row on AWA’s & strip them of all of their perks & entitlements!
Gary B – not sure too many were turned on.
It sounds to me (and I’m not watching it), that the liberal launch has gone well so far in not providing any material which might act as an impetus for their campaign.
ewwww did u see him kiss the baby? rannk!
The Rodent’s grandchild is there. I wonder whether Melanie would breast feed to keep the kid quiet amongst this audience?
Did Jeanette shake Costello’s hand THIS time?
his voice is wavering…
they’ve brought out the grand daughter for Howard to kiss on his way up to the podium…
here comes the rodent. jesus, i’ve just eaten my lunch. better get a bucket.
Howard has a Lord Mayor?
Howard crying… WTF
i like how costello just clapped very grimly, while downer beamed at his master…
267 – really?
He looks like honey i shrunk the kids actor Rick Moranus
Crying? really? is that why i can hear his voice wavering?
Howard is waving one arm around Dr Strangelove style
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0
sounds like a consession speech already
howard crying??? damn did i miss that??
The body language is pretty bad for someone in front of a friendly audience. Forced gestures, poor vocalising.
yeah, I think he is a bit teary… hard to tell, watching the small streaming version from SMH… but yeah, it looks teary… the old deary… : )
Me-too Howard.. stealing Rudd’s “The future” slogan. Howard should stick to what he does well: Speak about the past.
And how will Howard move us from a welfare state? By handing out lots of middle class welfare.
Ooooooh…..not the UNION BOSSES!!!
middle man @112
Better put it onto an endless loop then, MM. I’m hoping Antony Green will be able call it for Labor by 8pm EDT, but I suspect it will be a long wait until Ratty shows his face. They may need to teargas the
Feure..Lib bunker to get him and the missus out.oh god the union boss bogey man just got a run. this is pathetic. i mean really…..
crying?? is he really? oh sighted ones, tell me!
i hope we get another classic howard spasm!
Howard’s voice is breaking!
There’s that cracking voice again! Like a teenager who’s testicles haven’t dropped…
This is just so American. Clapping after every single sentence! And Howard’s quivering voice is really bloody irritating!
he’s said “i wanna be prime minister again…” about ten times. yeah, we know that already.
91.5 per-voice squeak-cent… terrible!
He looks tired.
Haaaaaa! Howard is advocating the three R’s again!!!
I don’t think he’s crying, but his voice is cracking.
LOL, nobody clapped when he said that Australia doesn’t need an Education Revolution.
is he actually cying? those watching tv please tell us
god i hope not – if he is he’ll win bennelong for sure
I don’t think he is crying, but his voice is breaking up now and then. He seems VERY stressed to me…
Illicit drug taking?? Well that’s Adelaide’s vote gone!
Gotta laugh!
Vaile says ‘education revolution’ sounds like something from a “Communist country”. Oooh, ah, scary!
He then goes on to say under the Lib/Nats there are 40,000 families getting 3 billion bucks, yes folks, 3 billion bucks in ‘drought relief’.
Hmm, $75,000 per family!
Wow, how do I apply from Sydney?
Sounds like something that happen in a communist farming collective! Ha ha!
passthepopcorn 288, he just said it again, haha..
Now he’s saying no to drugs. Better tell Shanahan.
Scourge of illicit drugs…… except for Andrew Johns who obviously just fell in with a bad lot….
Idiot.
#292 no tears that I can see
He keeps reaching under the “Gopher Growf” lectern, guess he’s searching for a lucky door prize!
Whilst I could listen, I must say that I’m finding the distilled essence of shite posted by you guys far more palatable than the unadulterated product. Thanks!
anyone know how old melanie howard is now? And how old her henpecked hubby is?
now he’s onto drug taking… he should try some to spice this up! ohhh and the deciding who comes to this country. he is in cliche heaven!
ShowsOn: “Howard is waving one arm around Dr Strangelove style”
LOL
I think I saw some tears there for a second, but the great vacuum that is his head sucked them back in again.
294 He’ll pick up Perth?
3r’s – drugs – refugees – boo!
The bloody clapping between each sentence is so forced… ‘quick Howard has looked up, it’s time to clap’… what a joke
Well, Piers won’t be voting Liberal this time! no drugs, indeed!
LOL. Now he wants us to be a compassionate nation. What an a-hole! So two-faced.
Howard:
we need to combat climate change but we need to do it without hurting the coal industry.
ding ding…..anyone home?
He’s using Rudd’s line about compassion now…
What BUSH is he talking about…W?
Wait a minute… in case you didn’t catch it… he wants to be prime minister again.
and finally… but what about the hoodlums and hoons! whatcha gunna do about that, Mayor Howard?
He mentions Indigenous People of this country – F*k he makes me want to puke my guts out when I hear him talk about Aboriginal Australians
illicit drugs-was that a reference to Piers cocaine habit?
Mr North shore talking up his links to ‘The Bush’, what a twat.
Among all of his reasons for wanting to be PM he still hasn’t said that one of his reasons is so that he can hand over to Cossie.
I’d hate to be Costello when he said he wants to be PM again.
Apart from that – talk about stating the obvious.
wants to be PM in oder to deliver
1. 3Rs in school
2. solve the drugs problem
3. edit the constitution
now its back to FUD
Quick, Union Bosses! There! No, there! There!
here comes the fear….
this is awful. growing storm clouds of economic uncertainty… blah blah blah… doom doom doom.
I heard Vaile introduced while I was driving, and it sounded to me that he walked on with a soundtrack that was very similar to Aaron Copland’s ballet suite “Rodeo”. It was had to hear, it may have been, or something very very similar.
So, we are well and truly aping the cowboy theme music in this presidential style gabfest.
(Maybe that should read ‘orangutanning’ instead of ‘aping’!)
OMG, the 70% union officials line AGAIN. He sounds like a deranged old man at a train station or something.
This is a man that does NOT want to leave office, ever!
Labor=Union Bosses… who will smother Australian values… future seriously compromised…wtf?
The more they mention the union officials line, the more it seems like a Monty Python skit.
This is why campaign launches are dowplayed so much now by both parties. Live oratory in front of an audience of fanatics is too dangerous and easily sends the wrong messages. I suspect both parties would abolish them if they could.
welfare to opportunity. except of course for all the welfare we are handing out!
Wow more middle class pork – who would have thunked it.
Well, that was bizarre.
testing
Something worth noting are the Labor announcements coinciding with the Coalition Launch.
1. Defense funding increase (ABC)
2. Sole workplace authority (ABC)
Will be interesting to see to what extent these deflect from the Coalition focus.
Also of interest is the timing of the RBA statement on projected interest rates over the next three years. It seems to me the the RBA is setting the agenda for Labor – in effect “interests rates will go up but you have 2 years to bring things into line”. From that perspective the Labor launch will be an interesting event. At the same time I’m hoping the Labor launch will focus on bigger picture things like integrity of government and open process – and the letter from Whitlam/Fraser and the support from Rudd announced earlier today sets the stage for interesting things.
More Bad News for Howard re ANOTHER bungled Terror Case.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743536-601,00.html
test?
William look at the mysql_connect() variable it may be set to low.
Good afternoon
After due consideration and after consulting various MoEs (a town in Gippsland, actually) and divers blowies, possums, several monkey bits and the unsavoury spectacle of Dolly Downer “streaming” , my thesis is now complete.
It has been subject to severe peer review. Trev is 6 foot four and built of muscle (works in construction, building things).
“Hey, Trev … how’s Howard going …”
Trev: “HOWARD IS F … (not doing terribly well, actually) …”
Executive conclusion: Howard is up shite creek in a barbed-wire canoe.
Jeebus! Check the gobsmackingly shameless me-tooism from Howard on Rudd’s home saver accounts, and education rebates.
Its a straight steal!
Guess the “me-too” campaign line is over; along with the ‘go for growth’ slogan.
Pathetic effort, Rodent. Game over.
Indeed
….. If the Libs campaign launch is a dry run for the evening of the 24th, you need to be on your toes William 
….. and just 2 more days to the Labor launch and then we can test the waters one last time 
Are you really back? Anything sinister in that break in broadcast William?
My favourite moments in that launch were the overheard comments during the outro, specifically Ruddocks ‘those baby shots were good’, and the unidentified woman with ‘thanks for saving the orangutans’.
A poll in which Howard justifiably takes top honors
…..
http://www.smh.com.au/news/news/who-wouldnt-you-want-to-sit-next-to/2007/11/12/1194766565198.html
Julie@343 – I vaguely remember Keating refusing to allow Howard to go to…PNG, Timor (?) with him on government transport because he felt he’d be bored to death by his company. Details anyone?
Lefty E..Me too ism? Havent you read what Malcolm Farr said?
THERE might not have been much ideological difference before when it came to Kevin Rudd and John Howard.
But Howard made sure there is now with a surprise promise to make private school fees tax deductible.
He detonated his policy weapon at the official Coalition launch, and guaranteed that education will become an ideological battleground for the remaining two weeks of the campaign.
Howard also, with the help of Treasurer Peter Costello, rammed home the notion that whilst the economy is currently zipping along there were “storm clouds on the horizon”.
The only clouds in prosperous Brisbane carried rain and hung over the cricketers at The Gabba, but Howard and Costello want us dreading an economic thunderstorm.
They argue the untried Rudd team would leave us soaked.
Howard spent a lot of money in his launch – the education rebate alone would cost more than $6 billion over four years.
But at this time of the election cycle, in which many voters start thinking about their ballots for the first time, money and ideological adventures are no object.
#340 Lefty E: now you understand how Glen feels about things.
Michelle Grattan the Age….
DON’T get me wrong. I’m highly in favour of helping orang-utans, wherever they live and however they vote. But there was something rather bizarre in John Howard posting a video on YouTube at the crack of dawn saying the Government would give $500,000 to assist the orang-utans in Indonesia.
Presumably this announcement was thought to be electorally useful. Otherwise, why not make it months ago? After all, the PM met the boy who persuaded him to the cause in May, and later wrote saying that the Government would provide the money. He waited, however, until the campaign to visit Daniel Clarke, who suffers from cerebral palsy, and was filmed with him for the video.
Probably nothing more sinister than a low mysql_connect() variable, Pancho.
Anyone know what percentage of first home shared equity is OK before it is CGT free?
Does it mean I can slip my kid a lazy $10,000 and then have a CGT windfall?
Did the MSM pull the feed? The launch just copied Rudd’s policies on 1. home loans 2. education rebate 3. releasing land. Pathetic really. The reaction in the papers websites has been very mute.
As I commented on Possum’s blog, the Liberal launch was far worse than a steal. Making the education tax deduction open ended is inequitable and hyper expensive(all school fees? what if the school takes the kids to a ski trip in the French Alps? Don’t laugh, I know at least two Brisbane private schools who have done this.)
The same is true of the parent – house investment tax deduction – tax evasion potential off the chart. By giving the big tax break to teh wealthy parents, they will just shadow-invest through the kids, and again price the houses even further out of reach of any kid without rich parents. Massively inflationary and sure to cost a bundle.
I didn’t hear costs mentioned for these crucial promises. What is the cost? Who pays? Has Treasury or the Reserve Bank signed off on them? I doubt it. Do I hear 7% interest rates? They should change their slogan to “Going for Inflation”.
SOmeone on Possum’s site mused that Howard’s orang-utan policy might reflect his misunderstand of the Textor Crosby data – perhaps he didn’t quite understand what they meant when they said he had to attract “swinging voters”.
I thought it was funny
Farr is on drugs, or channeling Shamahan.
Parents with kids in private school will just see the $25 net difference and go “big deal”.
If you cant find scope within Rudd’s policy for annual deductions, your kids aren’t really at school.
I guess there’s the difference that you dont have to get family benefit A – but the election will be decided well inside the family tax benefit income brackets.
Pancho 344
It was to Israel for the funeral of Yitzhak Rabin in late 1995
Funniest campaign ever.
I just couldn’t let those comments by Shanahan sail by when he quoted John Aquilina. I mean, WTF would Aquilina know about internal ALP polling? Nobody would tell him a thing. And anyone who believes a word that Dennis Shanahan says gets everything they deserve.
Cant wait to see Kerry or Tony Jones wipe that idiotic “me-too” smirk off Howard and Costello’s face over the next two days.
What a capitulation to Rudd. Seriously, is that it rodent? No ideas of your own? At the launch!!??
I assumed when I read it that Aquilina was trying to ensure that Labor didn’t appear too confident – party of the whole Mt Everest story that Rudd goes on about
Crossposted at possum:
Howard, Costello and Vaille’s speeches were some of the worst written speaches I’ve heard from people of their stature.
I listened to them on the radio.
Costello at least put some energy into it, though it sounded like he was lecturing year 10 somewhere.
I don’t even think Costello and Vaille even made a mention of IR – I thought someone had left open the rear stage door and the elephant had walked out!
Vaille spend minutes talking up biofuel…..to save 3c a litre at the pump!!!!
By the time Howard had finished the audience was dead and he whimpered to the line – no sound bite there. Costello finished with something about ‘good government’. Huh? That’s why you’re behind in the polls stupid.
If the ALP launch is as insipid, I’ll be really really disappointed.
Having just watched Rudd’s news conference on the Libs launch I believe Rudd will have much more to say on infra structure spending, water, education and health, couched in a new state and federal government cooperation we have never seen before in this country. Rudd has the opportunity now to blow Howard out of the water and I think he will do it.
William, when I feel a low mysql_connect() coming on, I find a nice cup of tea helps immensely. My mysql_connect() perks up again immediately.
Apparently Howard just spent eight billion dollars. Any bets on how much Rudd will spend on Wednesday?
re 58 & 74 “Kroger is just making things up as he goes along.”
He was on agenda saying the polls were tightening.
I wish I lived on planet Kroger, the polls have been tightening there for so long they must be about to break and shower all the coalition mouthpieces with a mighty dose of embarrassment.
Observation:
i loathe JWH but as a politician, leader and conman in chief…which is what a PM/PM candidate is:
He was much better than Kim Beazley
He was much better than Simon Crean
He was much better than Mark Latham
He was much better than Kim again
Kevin Rudd is much better than John Winston Howard.
362 – Darn, somewhere in the very high 7 billion dollar mark is my guess.
Did anyone read the sunday telegraph in sydney yesterday?
They had a spend-ometer (all the papers have one) – but they had labor on $4 billion and the coalition on $2.5 bil
Then in very tiny writing they had this: “This does not include spending on tax cuts because tax cuts are good for the economy while other government spending is almost always bad for the economy”.
I was floored.
Is Howard trying to lose? I am actually starting to wonder now…
Chris Ulman just said on PM that it was Howard’s best performance yet – Chris, I hope you read this at some point – you are a tool.
I also remember the dismissal and was dismayed by Fraser’s tactics, but more by the role Kerr played.
However, I have to say that throughout his career, Fraser did many good things. For example, he was a good education minister in an earlier Liberal Government..
And, I will always have a soft spot for him because at the height of apartheid he took on Margaret Thatcher and spoke out against the system in South Africa.
I have always been on the Labor side, but recognise that those with a different political philosophy can be genuine and decent.
While Fraser was helped by Labor, it should also be remembered that he quietly allowed a lot of Vietnamese refugees into Australia.
Unlike Howard, Fraser was never a racist and his streak of decency was always
apparent.
William, sorry we crashed your site. Just that JWH brings out ‘THE BEST in us!
How happy will Captain Smirk be right now?? He must be lovin’ how this campaign is turning out.
Gary 360
I agree – The Libs are totally set up for an absolute massacre.
They’re happy with theri little lies – ‘70%’ and ‘96billion debt’ but they couldn’t pull out the whopper today. If you analyse some of the talking points, paragraph by paragraph, they had nothing to say – they were actually padding the language. That’s so fundamentally daft when you’re trying to put cutting messages out of the hat; cliche after cliche after cliche….unbelievable.
I wish we had the opinion of someone there, but the mood seemed to sour during Howard’s speech – was it just too ,long or was there real disappointment.
At one point he used the word finally (must have been a gaffe – the speech writing couldn’t have been THAT bad): my jaw dropped because he’d said nothing – he went on but it didn’t get any better.
When you view this campaign and the recent departure of Beattie and Bracks, the lessons for all Australian pollies is stark.
Kev Rudd on Howard: “No new ideas speech” – go Ruddster!!!
So now we have in News Ltd
Shanahana-scares-your-nana-ganas
And on the ABC we have:
Ulmanana-wana-banana-save-the-oranguntanas
and
Franana-we’ll-all-be-roond-said-hanrahana Kelly
Well done Australian media. Well done.
I listened to most of the launch (all of Vaile and Howard) and I found it completely bizarre and insipid. No vision on health or education… nothing really on climate change except to say we have to keep the coal industry happy. Applause for the removal of unfair dismissal…
I kept waiting for the Rudd Killer… it never came.
Amusingly the journalist on NewsRadio said it was 2 of the most boring hours of his life. Howard had a chance to shake things up, he me-tooed and sounded out-dated and lost.
Whoever is running the libs campaign really needs a kick in the behind. I assume there is a campaign plan but Jeanette and Johnny change it on their whim.
BV Says:
Shanahana-scares-your-nana-ganas
Ulmanana-wana-banana-save-the-oranguntanas
Franana-we’ll-all-be-roond-said-hanrahana Kelly
I’m cryin’ here
oh the humanity!
Rudd just got the Greek Vote.
http://www.neoskosmos.com.au/071112/nkew/community/community_index.shtml
Peter Hartcher on smh.com.au is declaring the launch as a victory for me-tooism and is costing the promises at $9 billion
Harry H – do you think that the actions of the politican leader and commander in chief can be easily separated from the person himself. I’m guessing not – but how can you dispute the visual evidence of the compassionate doting grandfather?
Ahem, it’s 2004 in reverse
Latham behaved exactly the same as Howard is.
But the big question will be whether Howard will do a Latham and implode in the New Year ?
RGee Says:
“I kept waiting for the Rudd Killer… it never came.”
RGee, don’t you know anything? They’re waiting for the “campaign proper” to begin (some time a day or two before the 24th) to release that one….
Looks Like Ullman is more rose coloured about Libs than Sid Marris
THE enthusiasm was only sporadic, some of the delivery flat and the policy contribution mixed as the Coalition delivered John Howard’s last campaign launch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22744849-5014047,00.html
Credit to Pancho:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/caught-with-their-rates-down/2007/11/11/1194766509793.html
Eighth line:
For practical purposes it will end Mr Costello’s chances of ever becoming prime minister.
If this story is told simply enough then it’s the end of the road for Costello full stop – he can’t keep up with a portfolio he’s had for 12years from one 3 month period to the next.
When is someone in Treasury going to stand up and tell the truth about Costello?
…Howard just spent 8 billion dollars on (mainly) more non-means-tested middle class welfare, then on Sky News Julie Bishop just spent another 4 billion – bet the zombie-eyed one didn’t get clearance for that announcement! The LNP campaign has been a dischordant disaster from start to finish!
OOh Meester Hart! WHAT A MESS!!
George @ 380 – LOL!! All this talk about “blowing Rudd out of the water” really meant: we’re gonna blow you out of the water because we are going to me-too your policies and wedge ourselves.
Well, here’s the view on the Bulletin site:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/air_of_defeatism_in_libs_campaign_launch.htm
“For practical purposes it will end Mr Costello’s chances of ever becoming prime minister”
as a resident of Higgins I can’t tell you how upset this makes me…. NOT
“Oh the Humanity”, am I correct that this phrase is a metaphor for the Hindenburg disaster and the live radio commentary at the time? ie the coalition is going down and there will be no surviviors etc (metaphorically speaking of course)
New thread Seat: Bennelong.
On election night, don’t sing Bocelli’s beautiful elegy, try this instead:
You Tube
384 – what did Julie Bishop have to say re the $4 billion.
Geez, a billion here, a billion there – soon you’re talking real money.
Missed the Liberal launch. Did they reveal where the 24 nuclear power plants other than Bribie Island are going to be located or whimp out?
StanS @ 388:
Many jumped from the burning craft, landed on the soft sand of the naval base below, and lived to tell about it; others weren’t so lucky. Herb Morrison, a reporter for WLS Radio in Chicago, happened to be covering the event and cried out the now famous words, “Oh, the Humanity!” The majestic ship turned into ball of flames on the ground in only 34 seconds.
Yes – 36 deaths iirc.
Hmmm – 36 seats lost – I could live with that (pun intended).
Goodbye Mr T @ 379 said:
The PM is the Commander-in-chief, Mr T, the Governor-General is.
368 – George
I heard that as well and almost drove my car up a tree. It was one of Howard’s worst performances. You really have to wonder how an independent journalist could have read it that way.
Well what a waste of oxygen the Lib/Nat launch turned out to be. “We have a strong plan” yeah well what is it?
Sad Sad Sad.
392 steve
The speeches were nothing but fluff – the Libs have finally fallen victim to their own wedge world – they’ve just sucked the life out of vision and conviction in this country. Burgey’s Bulletin link is a good summation.
The very fact that there’s any doubt or concern about the final result is evidence enough of the damage they’ve done.
The gap is wide and yet the illusion in the community is that Howard could win at any minute – where has the no-bulshit, piss-take, knock-em-when-they’re-down-but-buy-them-a-beer Aussie attitude gone?
Yep, they’ve screwed up; we all have…..
The problem is they’ve burnt compassion out of us, and now there’s none left when they need it.
Rudd nails and rebutts 1.5hrs of Liberal policy in 3 minutes:
Nothing new in Coalition launch: Rudd
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22744693-29277,00.html
welcome to campaigning in the 21st century
397 onimod. That’s about the way I thought it might pan out. Early in the campaign we were hearing bizarre stories of people hugging Howard and wishing him a long retirement but even those stories seem to have faded.
Thought they could possibly have had a go with a wedge by putting all their spare cash into an education wedge or a housing affordability bribe but although the intent was there, they seem to have spread themselves a bit thin.
Howard is gone.
Those are the best ideas they can come up with after 11 years? They’re not even the best ideas for getting themselves re-elected.
Stand-by for some people on Wednesday who have actually developed some policies.
An exit strategy article from Oakes:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/the_embassy_rooftop_strategy.htm
Sounds like the speech writers were let go well before today, me thinks.
Channel 9 has just lifted Howard’s spending spree to ten billion. The media must be still adding it all up.
LOL! Just saw Ch 7’s news article about the launch and it had Costello yawning. That would make such a good ad.
Darn:
Well, I listened to the campaign launch. I know I am biased, but even trying to be as objective as possible, I thought it was an absolute dud. But aside from the general atmosphere and Howard’s rather shaky performance, the big grand me-too by Howard on all three of his major policies was a disgrace. he is obviously not even trying now.
There is no doubt that the government’s campaign is in a mess. After all the talk about today’s policies expected to “blow Rudd out of the water”, what an anti-climax. How can these policies have such an effect when all that Howard has done is copy Rudd’s policies aside from a few minor adjustments?
Is Howard now trying to use a small target strategy? Big mistake when you are this far down in the polls. Or does he think that if he tries to portray himself as a Labor leader and his party as a Labor Party that people will want to vote for him instead of the actual Labor Party? It is bizarre, truly bizarre. The Liberal Party doesn’t know what it stands for anymore. The federal party is quickly falling into the void that the state parties fell into some time ago.
Howard has just made himself irrelevant today.
There are no reasons to vote for him. With no original policies for the future and a plan to retire after the election, why bother voting for him? Why risk it, when you might get Costello and a potential hardening of WorkChoices?
The Liberal party has shown gross incompetence throughout this campaign. And those in the media who keep cheerleading for them only make themselves look even more foolish now.
400 steve
A bit thin is correct.
I don’t know about you but all these dollar aggregates over a specified number of years – it’s just all gobbledegook to me. Dollars mean diddly squat – I want to know what the guaranteed outcome will be.
Otherwise, as JHW has proved time and again, it’s just an empty promise. The idea that you can promise everything to everyone is just bizarre – even a 5yo can work that one out.
Realistically we should be talking percentages – what proportion of Government income is spent in what sector? By what delivery method?
The messy mthod of announcing your positives and hoping your opposition doesn’t notice your deficits is a wank, for all parties.
It comes down to generalities and selfishness for the uneducated voter.
JWH has been the master of language (weasel words) for a long time now, but it feels like the world is turning, and Rudd is definitely the master of general vision at the moment.
For anyone watching the US scene – is the neo-con power of language also diminishing over there?
No need for education revolution according to Howard.
http://www.grods.com/post/1618/
Michael @ 366
Keep it. Tuck it away. For future reference. Bastardos.
So if the coalition has just pledged $10b, does that mean if they spend more then they go below the 1% GDP budget surplus target? I know someone made a mention earlier today that the coalition only had $10b left to spend. If that is so, then Rudd can spend less than $14b and show he is better than Costello/Howard.
I was expecting something far better!
Welfare for parents of private school educated kids, some dodgy policy for first home buyers etc. Is that all they’ve got?
Where is this supposed huge health announcement Shanahack was hinting at two weeks ago?
Even funnier: the Liberal campaign launch didn’t make the first 6 stories on Nine 6PM news in Sydney. It makes you wonder if commercial TV finally realises the Rodent is on the way out?
Rudd’s launch on Wednesday: I hope he’s got a few huge things on education to announce, that should seal the deal.
406 Noocat
100% agree
I thought there was going to be at least the pretence of an intellectual fight to the line.
The Libs are tired, worn out and I’ll bet they want to go home after today.
I expect after the last round of internal polling over the weekend that dozens of seat campaigns were shut down today to save any remaining cash. Defeat is in the air, and for many, it’ll have come as a relief.
For a campaign that was buzzing with excitement the Libs killed it today.
With a bit of luck the ALP can generate enough energy on their own for the next 2 weeks – they won’t want to hit govenment on a flat note.
Howard.[Mr Howard said he wanted to make sure Australia is a compassionate nation as well as a prosperous nation in the future.]
Was this the joke somebody said he tried? I thought he has worked for twelve years against these ideals. Or has the Tampa and siev x been written out of history along with Dr Haneef?
From 7 Perth’s Newsmail on the Campaign Launch.
Yep, one whole sentence.
sums it up really.
What do people think about the ‘removing of capital gains for parents in share equity houses’? I see it as opening up the complete removal of CGT, which we know the Libs want to get rid of.
Come 2 days time “THE RUDDSTER’ will be launching his campaign at the same venue in his OWN electorate. A good omen no doubt!
Rudd announced a huge one today but it got washed over in the press with the Libs campaign launch, however lame it was. Mind you, the target audience here though will KNOW that this is out there and it will SWING votes.
“While at Lavarack, home to the army’s 3rd Brigade, Mr Rudd also announced a plan to provide free basic medical and dental care to all immediate family members of defence personnel.”
For those who aren’t in the know about how the military works, current policy is free care for the service member ONLY. That is why this is such a HUGE positive thing by the Rudd team
.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/labor-matches-coalition-defence-spend/2007/11/12/1194766563193.html
Interesting: http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/air_of_defeatism_in_libs_campaign_launch.htm
A few in the media are starting to write up ‘reviews’ of what went wrong….. Can it really be all over?
417 julie. Bet the Member for Herbert was happy to hear about that.
On Melbourne radio 3AW, Alison Caribine said there was “an air of defeatism” at the Coalition launch despite their best efforts to whip up a frenzy. They were members of a defeated government “going through the motions”, she said.
ABC’s Chris Uhlmann told PM that there was a sense of optimism around the Coalition with many ministers genuinely believing they could still win.
Will From Kooyong
The shared equity thing could increase house prices, I have looked for detail on this but can’t find any yet.
If I can have 99.9% equity and my kids 0.01% Wow what a killing I could make.
Especially as it is not means tested. Look out Noosa Waters here I come (again).
Julia: thank you for the underlying context.
Click, click, … now it makes sense.
418 The expected date of the Narrowing is now July next year after not being sighted after the budget, after calling of election, or after campaign launch.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/teh-surge-teh-narrowing-teh-victory/
s/julia/julie
Onimod, yep, agreed. I expect Labor’s launch on Wednesday will be a huge contrast. It will be brimming with positive vibe, if for no other reason than the fact that the audience will be smelling potential victory for the first time in many years.
I also expect Rudd to have some new policies to announce that the Labor Party actually developed. There will be no me-too crap stunts like Howard tried to pull off today.
Looks like we weren’t the only ones to smell defeatism in the launch today. Here is Laurie Oakes:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/air_of_defeatism_in_libs_campaign_launch.htm
Well I guess Herbert just got well and truely porked by Rudd.
OK – call me paranoid, but I’m still checking the news from the other side of the pacific for noises related to Iran and the inevitable terrorist, border-patrol, defend-the-beaches, hide-your-mothers-and-children spin.
Were Uhlmann and Caribine actually at the same launch? Amazing isn’t it?
415 Will from Kooyong
I’m no economist, but my understanding is that that proposal will only perpetuate the housing crisis for another generation, by lifting the net present value of a property. Again – great if you’re already in the market (or your parents are) but no good if you’re not.
I need someone with cred to think this through.
On channel 9 Adelaide, the Lib launch was the TENTH news item and the phrase “landslide loss” featured prominently.
ACOSS on dental care for teenagers.
http://www.acoss.org.au/
Herbert got porked with the V8 Super Cars, but this pork was directed at military bases all around Australia but Townsville is the biggest outside of Canberra so it was the place to launch it. Lets not forget that Darwin is also another military town that got porked today.
429 onimod
421 ruawake beat me to it (whew – we agreed)
Housing Industry Association view
http://hia.com.au/hia/news/article/MR/National/EC/HIA%20WELCOMES%20BI%20PARTISAN%20SUPPORT%20FOR%20HOUSING.aspx
wheres the bounce
ruawake @ 377
Whew! Nice. Neat. Ta for link.
Where’s the support for public housing and the HIA descibes the private housing as ailing?
Ok so someone help me out here. What’s the difference between Howard’s savings plan and Rudd’s savings plan?
howard is an economic and political genius
rudd just happens to come up with good ideas occassionly
(just helping out our rightoids)
Matt
Rudd’s saving plan has a 15% tax, Howard’s has no tax and if you have rich parents or grandparents they can sling you ten grand as well. But you can only claim one grand of family money as a tax deduction.
I believe this classic should have been the Liberal theme.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=S9oaXzrsV3Q
#441 ROTFL
Man, I hate Judith Durham!!!
I believe I can hear the spluttering of a dying rodent…
Matt,
As ruawake said, Howard’s is tax free but only for the first $1K. Rudd’s plan allows you to put up to 10% of income in to the account, there is a certain % that is taxed at 15% and is pre-taxable income, the rest comes from your taxable income and is taxed as normal.
Howard’s plan doesn’t promote savings, other than the rich giving their children money to be a tax dodge. Those families that can’t afford to give $1K to their kids miss out.
Okay, quite a bit of movement on Herbert in the sportingbet site today.
This morning when I put my bet in, Colbran was 1.90 and Lindsay was 1.80.
Now, Colbran is 1.60 and Lindsay is 2.20… Mr. Rudd’s visit has someone given someone confidence!
2 lib ads in a row on TEn Perth – Interest Rates and Julia in Shades.
How desperate.
Oh and expect Howard to criticise Rudd on Wednesday for using an Autocue.
or in yoda speak:
Marris not impressed by Launch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22744849-5014047,00.html
Ten Perth focussing on Cowan – Lib says No 1 Issue is Crime and Hoons.
ALP – Housing Affordability.
I admit I can’t find the Lib policy doc but how long does a “first home buyer” have to actually live in the “first home”?
I have no kids in this situation but my brother has three. Could I gift him a few hundred grand to get 3 CGT free rentals for his kids?
Spin:
Milne: John Howard has delivered a knock-out blow to the faltering Rudd campaign. In a clear message to ute-driving voters and red necks, Mr Howard declared: “We will continue to decide who comes … into our nation.”
Jeez, even the silly boxers perked up on that!
Shanahan: This is a bold statement from John Howard that will go to the wire. On the night, but consider the alternative on the night. Besides which, it is not clear about nightness. On the night.
Uhlman was an absolute disgrace on PM. He was waxing about it being Howard’s “strongest performance of the campaign” and was really talking up the whole thing. The polar opposite of what everyone here and many in the MSM have been saying throughout the afternoon.
And Vaile equating an education revolution with something that happens in a Communist country? WTF?
And Mal Brough excepted, the Libs all looked so damn old.
: ) davidoff
GG @ 441
Yes mate the Seeker does resonate with me in a Howardesque kinda way. Yet a song called Loser from a band called 3 doors down really nails it in LIBERAL way big time!
Good song too.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=GytyF0w9BL4
I am absolutely non-plussed by the advertising of the Third Party in the Coalition. Darwin is being bombarded with “soft on crime” and pictures of Claire Martin etc. Does Tollner (and his wise advisers) really think that people are so disconnected that they can’t tell Territory Govt’ issues from National issues.
Not a word about Uranium Disposal or continuing rising interest rates.
The sooner the Coalition is reduced to Two Parties the better. Damien Hale will do the right thing and get rid of this clown from Solomon.
Aussieguru01,
I’ll see your song of angst and raise you the second Liberal choice…………..
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qOrVq4DNFb8
Hmm, Doesn’t Judith Durham look like Janette and/or Melanie Howard ?
I can feel another “The Games” parody
John Rocket: Thanks to this site I got on at 1.90 today in Herbert.
Chris “Toolman” would have to be the biggest dropkick employed by the ABC for some time. I’m boycotting PM and AM on ABC radio until that prick is removed.
Interesting that the rest of the MSM isn’t quite as keen on the Rodent’s speech as Uhlmann and presumably Shanahack tomorrow.
LMFAO The only musical act the Liberals can find is some washed up old hasbeen singer from the 1960s – says it all about John Howard’s Liberal Party in 2007.
The Seekers were a lib front. The bass player, Athol Guy, stood for and was elected to, I think, the seat of Gisborne. A dork. Judith? Don’t know. But jeez she can sing …
HH – that should do it, they’ll probably sack Uhlman now
I didn’t see the whole thing, but Howard didn’t look that bad on the excerpts on the news.
Vaile on the other hand…. god….
I hope they can get the “old man smell” out of the hall before Wednesday.
Yeah, agreed asanque, if I could be bothered I go back through to thread this morning and find the person and thank them personally! as it – they know who they are – and I’m sure they’ll be content feeling that warm inner glow! I was going to put the $30 on Labor, but yeah, Herbert was too good to pass up! Indeed, I never would’ve even thought of the $30/$100 Freebet without Alan H who mentioned it last week! Bloody excellent and if I win, Mr. Bowe will get his tithe! Excellent site – excellent contributors!
Yes, I hope the fumigators and pest control people are cleaning out that hall for Wednesday, a dying Rodent leaves a nasty smell.
I wonder how he felt about that Radical Commie Rudd for singing Georgy Girl with the Chior during Accordiangate ??
The ‘let me introduce my team moment’ was a powerful testimony to the all star cast of first rate plodders that have been running rough shod over the country for 11 years. Unless they happen to pick up an STD, it will be the last clap that any of them are likely to get.
Sean,
That depends whether you embrace their principles or their mistress.
Because we are all election junkies, I thought you might appreciate an insight into ‘how the other half lives’
My wife frequents a baby forum full of mums/mums-to-be.
They’ve started an election thread, some of the posts are quite interesting, there is at least one person who has taken the union are bad’ stuff hook, line and sinker. (To the point of quoting the ads darn near!)
Anyway, worth a browse, if only for the graphical signature with the cat
http://members.essentialbaby.com.au/index.php?showtopic=460499
Lots of pro-labor comments, and most people directing their senate choice to the greens!
GG #457
Heres one from the 60s – I’m a Loser, The Beatles
Doe’s it fit?… who cares!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-yZNxMU7t8
red wombat @ 462 LMAO… I laughed so loud then I scared the cat!…
Sean: good one mate!
Getting Alexander Downer up on stage is enough of a vote loser: the silly twat only has to open his mouth and the Liberal vote instantly declines.
For me it’s Otis Redding: Sitting on the dock of the bay. A time to reflect, a time to be calm, a time to enact revenge, a time to … whistle and wait.
Related to my last post – The ‘Essential Baby’ voting poll (eat your hearts out AC Nielson)
Who will you vote for?
Liberal [ 55 ] [29.10%]
National [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Labor [ 92 ] [48.68%]
Democrats [ 6 ] [3.17%]
Greens [ 27 ] [14.29%]
Independent[ 1 ] [0.53%]
Other [ 1 ] [0.53%]
Family First [ 1 ] [0.53%]
One Nation [ 1 ] [0.53%]
Undecided [ 4 ] [2.12%]
I don’t vote [ 1 ] [0.53%]
thanks S
Alas they wouldn’t let me have some fun by posting a reply…
476: Yeah, on that note, lets leave the ladies to themselves, they are a lot more polite than we are
Mark Banisch on the Liberal policy launch.
http://www.newmatilda.com/election07/index.php/2007/11/12/whitefella-dreaming/
S – yeah I know – I would only have done my best impression of a young mother, though.
which is about as good as my impression of a greek grandmother (which is not very good)
4 Corners looks depressing tonight – suggesting “it’s not over yet, as we discover when Johnathan Holmes meets the swinging voters”
Ausie Guru @ 471
Howard vetoed this……..
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qOrVq4DNFb8
Swinging voter usually equals craven ignorant toss pot. Every 3 years they get to be made special for their airheadedness by having politicians and pollsters hang off their every word.
Ever wondered where the polling booths go in non-election years?
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/images/FirstDog-WhereDoTheyGo-770d5f57-a531-4f58-8356-aff0996b110f.jpg
I’m still laughing over Vaile’s comment that an educational revolution is like ’something you’d see in a communist country’. I think that’s the stand-out line of the whole election. HILARIOUS.
Had a busy day so wasn’t able to catch the great event – though caught bits on ninemsn recap.
Good to see that we pretty much predicted all the “big ticket items” – tax rebate on school fees – so no doubt the ALP is ready to return that limp serve.
Amazing for a man who wants to focus on the economy he couldn’t find the strength to go big on interest rates… oh well guess that’s so 2004.
Costello played well to the faithful – everyone else (if they bothered watching the last story before the newsreader says, “now turning to sport’) would have wondered what he was going on about with the reds under the bed. (Cold war ended 17 years ago folks)
464 Red Wombat. Comment of the night. Take a bow.
I have finally found someone besides Chris Uhlman who was impressed by the Liberal Launch this afternoon. Must say this summary of it impressed me.
http://governor_general.blogspot.com/2007/11/we-watched-coalitionlaunch-and-it-was.html
Lock ‘em in S, that’s research you can take to the bank!
I think this is more appropriate for JWH.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=FVOMReOMYyQ
Just got a tv ad for fran bailey (McEwen) It look like she in some hot water in Mc Ewen
Dave Bath gets into the swing of Howard History rewriting mantra and combines the concept of $weeties ‘Reds under the bed’ jibe,
http://balneus.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/howard-and-putin-soul-mates/
Frank @ 467. I take your point.
This is a disturbing trend in this campaign. Kevin (don’t be fooled by the soft name) Rudd is clearly a red-ragger from way back. Can he play the lute, I cry.
I think we need a new song. Plink, plonk on a 12-string …
Convicts all, let us rejoice
…
Minchin yesterday said Uncle John wouldn’t toss the bank at the electorate – sure he didnt, only 10 frikkin BILLION dollars worth of ‘hopes and dreams’. The road to Damascus has been cut out of Syria and exported to Brisbane, at least for today:
I think he bought the friggin thing wholusbolus to Oz: education, Child Care, Indigenous [sorry got excited], house affordability (especially for first home buyers) and, wait for it..yes sir, you get 2 Prime Ministers for the vote of 1.
Gross moron voter grab bags being thrown out the door at fire sale prices: desperation and miraculous change. Campaign left you stupid ba….d.; campaign left ffs screamed C and T [govern right but campaign left, dickhead]. At last JWH listened today and may save a few seats, but the Coalition are stuffed as a political force in this country for at least 2 elections.
Qld seats like Herbert will make a bloody mess of the Coalition after this one is over, swing baby swing.
I haven’t caught the launch, but from what I’ve read here, it wasn’t that impressive.
However, I’m not sure that it matters what we think?
No doubt the Murdoch Press will have a field day tomorrow, so the key to the outcome of the launch is the mileage they give him.
That was the worst episode of Funniest Home Videos I have seen, until Vaile opended his mouth, then it all seemed kinda funny.
“480
Michael Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
4 Corners looks depressing tonight – suggesting “it’s not over yet, as we discover when Johnathan Holmes meets the swinging voters” ”
It’s over. But you can’t blame Four Corners for wanting to attract people over to their program, and they wouldn’t be the only people in Australia who think that scare tactics are the best way to do this…
These clowns of swinging voters featuring on 4 Corners present a compelling case for a benign dictatorship.
495 – phew!
Did you watch it? I couldn’t bear to do so. Keen for a synopsis though.
Flash, it doesn’t say much for the phrase ‘human intelligence’ does it?
Watching it. One voter says Labor has now refused to sign the Kyoto protocol and his wife thinks Labor will stop funding private education. Aaaargh!!
But let us not forget, so many of the idiotic ideas that these ’swinging voters’ on the program are dealing with, are ultimately lies peddled by the Tories and the media. Remember what Hitler said about the ‘big lie’ ?
Showing him in Lindsay and in Lindsay again. I have just written to Kevin Rudd to stop by in Lindsay before Nov 24th.
Now I know why it’s so quite – you’re all watching 4 corners.
Lindsay – some people can’t be helped…
No, mad cow, it doesn’t. It is, frankly, utterly depressing and it makes you realise that the process of election-time politics is base for one very good reason.
Oh good, a few have stopped listening to Howard.
There have been two big moves on the betting markets today. All three polls (SportingBet, Centrebet and PortlandBet) have moved LaTrobe from being pro Coalition to firmly in the ALP camp, and there has been an across the board splurge on the ALP in Queensland seats on SportingBet, among other things moving Bowman to the ALP side of the ledger. These are the first major perturbations in a while.
Re: 4 Corners
Every election when I see these swinging voters stories I get annoyed. And now I remember why. Very frustrating.
I’ll write to David Bradbury to see if he can get Labor’s message across in Lindsay. Can’t believe some are still so undecided!!
That 4 Corners was absolutely brilliant.
The four corners online poll has the question..
(the buttons are missing in this cut and paste)
What do you think the election result will be?
Coalition 10+ seats majority
Coalition 1-9 seats majority
Labor 1-5 seats majority
Labor 6+ seats majority
Hung Parliament
What!?!?!?
He didn’t ask that stupid woman why she had stopped listening to Rudd.
I’m going to my Labor contact to print some leaflets re Kyoto and private school funding. I know where one of the swingers live.
Love this from Kevin.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2088829.htm
Shanahan’s take:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613188-5013871,00.html
apparently the momentum is still there to be gotten…
“497
Michael Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
495 – phew!
Did you watch it? I couldn’t bear to do so. Keen for a synopsis though.”
I’m not watching it – it’s 10.30am in London and I’m in the office, but I read the transcript…
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/s2088749.htm
What it amounts to is a reminder that many voters have no idea what’s going on in politics, and that they’re spread across the political spectrum, so they tend to cancel each other out, but when the swing is on (as it is), one side is going to benefit more from the general ignorance.
And in this election, the beneficiaries will be Labor.
Lindsay voter, what part of the electorate were the people from.? I’m in St Marys, no one seems in any doubt here.
I thought the Four Corners show was very interesting, especially the way some people misunderstood policies. Obviously a lot of people don’t follow the Parties very closely. The Libs need to hold hold onto almost every one of these voters who voted for them last time and clearly if the voters on 4 Corners are typical they are not going to.
Voterboy, how do you figure that. Seems most of the dumb stupid pig ignorant ideas that that show exposes are in favour to the Tories.
Looks like a bit of heat and pressure is starting to build in Flynn. On the theory that winners are grinners,it seems the Nats are stuck in whinge mode.
http://www.qld.nationals.org.au/news/default.asp?action=article&ID=2266
Note that the Veteran lives in the ultra Marginal seat of Swan.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2088364.htm
God, that four corners thing has brought me down to earth. The stupidity of your average swinging voter never ceases to amaze me. That family with the young girl were bovine in their stupidity and ignorance… swallowing any sh.t that gets cynically thrown at them by the politicians and press. Their take on labor and kyoto was hilarious, and the women had some throw back memory of Latham and private schools that she’d managed to pin on Rudd…You can see why howards been in govt for so blo.dy long.
OMG. The ignorance of those swinging voters is astounding. I’ve always had a pretty low opinion of most swinging voters, and this program has done nothing but reinforce that idea.
You should have to sit an idiot quiz before they let you vote.
Labor and the union ads are dominating tonight on 7 in Vic.
Here’s the 4 Corners page with the poll… g’wan megapsephs, you know you want to… ALP 6+ seats is currently on 0%. Even with my vote.
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/
515. I think one was from Leonay, suspect some from Glenmore Park. Leonay is our leafy suburb.
Hey Sean, cows are not *that* stupid
oh dear, Caroline Overington getting a pasting from Monica on Media Watch for encouraging Danielle Ecuyer (independent in Wentworth) to preference Malcolm Turnbull over George Newhouse. Lots of sweetie darlings amongst it all.
Is anyone out there watching Monica absolutely destroy Caroline Overington for here to eternity? If not, you’re missing out. Even I’ve changed my mind, and that’s some effing bulldozer.