Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Bennelong and Herbert “polls”
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
714 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 15 » Show All
is it just me, or does this shot from today’s coalition launch make howard look like tricky dicky…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5747194,00.jpg
4 more years blblblblbllblblblllllll…
HAHAHAHAH colourful Caroline Overington!
Government Gazette government lobbyist of the year!
media watch website has been updated
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2088770.htm
“513
Grog Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Shanahan’s take:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613188-5013871,00.html
apparently the momentum is still there to be gotten…”
Did you like watching Sham-I-Am’s face redden as he reeled off Howard’s endless list of never-to-be-repeated last minute giveaways, at prices so low I can’t believe it myself!
Thanks Johnny, but I want more. And more. And more. Restore the superphosphate bounty. Lift petrol rationing. Hang the Kaiser.
I didn’t see the four corners programme, but the ignorance of some (many?) voters often astounds me too.
I was asked recently whether a vote for Howard would be a vote for gay marriage – THAT was way off the mark.
But some of the other things that I have heard:
“Is Howard Labor or Liberal?”
“I don’t like Howard’s policies, and I think that he is very bad for Australia, but I’ll vote Liberal anyway because my Mum does.”
“I could never vote Labor because they haven’t had any experience in government.”
“All politicians are liars so I might as well vote for Howard.”
“Is Rudd the prime minister now or is it still Howard?”
“If Labor get into power then we’ll all lose our jobs and homes and the terrorists will come and get us.” [Yes, some people really do believe the propaganda!]
There are probably a lot more, but can’t think of them now.
I always thought Caroline Overington was an ignoramus wannabe. Chris Mitchell gave it all away on MediaWatch. Now we know she is a colour writer and is pitching as hard as she possibly can, for a Liberal win using all the vast resources of The Australian. With the blessing of Murdoch I imagine. Ah journalism is such an honourable profession…like the oldest profession in the world.
Shanahan’s crazy. I don’t know what he thinks he’s doing.
And Howard’s problem is he’s too old, and been there too long. Not all the other stuff (well, maybe WorkChoices a bit).
Which is why Rudd has turned himself into a mini-Howard to get elected. But crucially, a much younger and fresher mini-Howard.
And this confusing message just arrived in my inbox, from the GG’s Online Opinion man, Graham Young
“If I had to pick a word to describe what you’re telling me it would be either “inertia” or “momentum”.
“Inertia” because most appear to have made up their mind on their vote. So there has been no substantial change in support for the parties over the course of the campaign, and it doesn’t seem that anything either side says changes anything.
“Momentum” because Kevin Rudd built a head-of-steam up just after he became leader, and ever since he has been capitalising on it.”
Inertia *and* momentum. The product, no doubt, of 11 years of being relaxed *and* comfortable.
Dyno, here is an untruthful idea:
“The unions are going to take over and wreck things and steal all our money”
here is another untruthful idea:
“The Liberal Party is going to sell Tasmania to a forest products company in Indonesia and Tasmanians are going to work as slave labour”.
Now you see a lot of Liberal politicians pushing big lies like the former.
I don’t see Labor politicians selling an equally big lie, like the latter.
And politicians aside, my point was about the marketplace of ideas in the minds of ‘common ordinary folk’. In other words the ideas that are commonplace ‘out there’ are very often those that have been pushed little by little, by our media.
Here’s another big lie.
“the federal budget is the same as a household budget”. NO, it is not. The government is privileged in establishing the currency by fiat and is NOT in the same situation as a household.
Of course simpler ideas tend to be wrong and simple minds tend to believe them.
Yay! Another episode of Government Gazette Community Television!
Glenmore Park and Cranebrook are stacked with Defence families for RAAF Glenbrook, RAAF Richmond and Orchard Hills (Army). Read into that what you will …………
Question without notice:
At what time does the 3 day no ad rule kick in? Is it 8am on 21 November (3 days before polls open)?
Does it apply to only tv ads? Or is it all ads? Does it effect party websites (e.g. Kevin07)?
We’ve only got a week of ads left. We might be facing a barrage!
Radio and TV only, web and print are exempt.
mad cow,
What you see is Governments pushing big lies about Oppositions.
Eg Keating saying that Hewson’s GST would add 15% to the price of everything (which it wouldn’t have because they were getting rid of sales tax and so on). Eg Iemma saying it was Liberal policy to get rid of 20,000 front-line Government service providers (it wasn’t).
When the Opposition is politically inept (think Hewson, Debnam, Latham) Governments get away with this stuff fairly easily.
When they’re a bit better (think Beazley) it’s much harder for a Government to do so. So Howard nearly lost in 1998 and (arguably) got lucky with external events in 2001.
To say that Labor never lies is just not true!
I think Labor should push the “Howard handover to Costello” line more in Bennelong.
Having just seen some of the swinging voters on Four Corners, & assuming there will be similar in Bennelong, I suspect they would actually be stupid enough to believe that Costello would be their new local MP.
Sir Eggo,
I don’t know the answer to the time part of your question, but I am certain that it also applies to radio ads. I say that from what I observed with the NSW state elections in March. Radio ads stopped a couple of days prior.
Just read the Media Watch item on Overington and Ecuyer. It doesn’t surprise me that Chris Mitchell has defended her – one needs to circle the wagons in such instances. But I bet he’s seriously, seriously p’d off with her.
I’ve been banging on about this for a while and now I’ve got something to back me up. On Simon Jackman’s site, Longman (Mal “Jackboots” Brough) has been the second greatest tightener for Labor in the last week (now 34.7% win prob). Perhaps he was the one who set up the dunny on the sacred site. God knows he’s full of sh#t.
Dio,
Interesting you say that.
Heard someone else say yesterday they thought MB was in trouble.
4Corners – makes one think eugenics was on to something after all…
Hey, where are all the Tories tonight? I thought they’d be on to crow about the PM’s inspirational fightback at the campaign launch.
I think you are right, but the whole paper would come out of it better if the editors actually stood for something, rather than sticking by journalists who had done the wrong thing.
567
VoterBoy
I thought Mitchell would kick Dennis’ a#se from here to kingdom come with that complete b#llocks of a story about the car industry last week. I sincerely doubt it, however. What I’m wondering is what Fairfax will do. They have refrained in the past from criticising anything News does, and while I was hopeful they would go to town on Dennis on his car industry story I didn’t hold out much hope.
In this case, however, Mediawatch has actual evidence of News playing silly buggers. It will be interesting to read tomorrow’s paper to see if Fairfax takes the p#ss or just plays it safe and runs an AAP story on their website.
It does surprise me sometimes that Fairfax doesn’t take it up to News in the ‘d#ckhead journo of the week’ awards. Perhaps as a venerable institution they are above it all?
Well, what an interesting night’s viewing tonight on ABC-TV.
On this blog, I have previously defended Caroline Overington against buckets of criticisism, on the grounds that she did a good job on the AWB scandal. But after watching Media Watch tonight, I am now a convert to the anti-Overington school. It was an absolute outrage, the way she tried to persuade George Newhouse’s ex to allocate preferences to Turnbull, so she could have a good story (or perhaps help get the Libs re-elected). I was blind, but now I see.
And a bucket poured on Janet Albrectsen to finish! Monica obviously has already lined up another job.
And Four Corners was another devastating insight into the mind (or lack of same) of the swinging vote. Give me an Indonesian orang-utan any day. That woman who was convinced Labor had decided against signing the Kyoto protocol and would take money away from private schools! She wouldn’t even change her mind after the reporter told her that Labor had not done these things. There were also some clear signs that the anti-union propaganda was working. But as one blogger has already pointed out, at least one of the five former Howard voters had definitely decided to switch, so that represents at least a 20% swing in Lindsay, without Rudd having paid a visit.
Four Corners also did a very good job in highlighting all the pork that’s been flying around from both sides, to the extent that voters can’t remember who’s promised what. They only remember the big themes – Labor is run by unions, Labor thinks education is important. There were suggestions, though, that interest rates and climate change will work against the coalition.
And to follow all that, there was a most entertaining Andrew Denton interview with John laws. Unfortunately, my daughter demanded custody of the TV just as they were starting to talk about Alan Jones.
And please, please God let Overington have a blog at the GG tomorrow!! And let them put on the same moderator as last week!! She let Dolly get away with murder, literally, with the AWB. With more than 20 warnings to DFAT there had to have been someone who would go on record and admit they knew.
Just to change the subject. I was about to throw out the AEC voting guide unread, but I’m glad I didn’t. This on page 4:
Anyone have any information on what is being planned?
Given the alleged rigging of electronic voting in the US mid term election, particularly in Iowa, I do not want to see this introduced here under any circumstance.
While I do have confidence in the AEC, I doubt they could guarantee that the system was 100% secure and I certainly don’t trust everyone on either side of politics to be 100% honest.
Marktwain,
I think Fairfax’s reluctance to criticise too much is also about glass houses and all that.
Not saying Fairfax’s standards are as low as News, but stuff-ups can still happen and why would you want to set yourself up to get torn apart?
MarkTwain – these days, there are so many cross-overs in journalism (Annie Oakley, SMH editor, ex-Herald Sun editor; Bruce Guthrie who was with the Sunday Age and is now running the Hun) that I sometimes think journos don’t really want to slag off the opposition, because one day you might find yourself working there…
574
Antonio
I was just about to sit down and write every single word you said, Antonio. As Dame Edna would say, that’s spooky.
But no matter how many times you vote for “Labor 6+ seats majority” – it returns 0% . The ABC thought police on patrol there maybe.
This wins the prize for the most contrived poll of the campaign. It allowed me to vote three times, which I did, for ALP 6+, and the margin still didn’t move off of zero. What a crock.
Antonio @ 574. Another interesting point about the Four Corners programme, was that of the 5 people, the one who had definitely changed his vote was over 55.
I have a similary experience with my own father, also on the issue of WorkChoices, even though he retired 14 years ago.
My father has been a rusted-on Liberal voter & was a very hard working scientist in the public service. When we were talking about voting intentions a few months ago he told me that Howard had lost his vote over Workchoices because he is of the opinion that the Government has turned back the clock on workers rights way too much.
From talking with others, I think that although overall quite a stronghold for the Government in that age-bracket, enough of that group have already decided to vote Labor this time which could make a substantial difference.
The ABC’s election campaign coverage has been woeful, characterised by Chris Uhllman’s performance tonight on PM – he must be auditioning for a job on Sky News. I’m expecting “Toolman” will be bagging Rudd on Wednesday.
I think something that has been missed in the 4 Corners story was that the 5 people were not swinging voters per se. Each of them has voted Liberal over the last few elections. These were slighty rusted on voters who were thinking of voting Labor, against their natural voting pattern. Any of them changing is a victory for Labor.
I would be very interested to know the origin of the couple renting the commission house and sending their daughter to St Paul’s. They strike me as classic National Party voters who have ended up on the outskirts of the city, poor and uneducated but they just know which party is born to govern.
Anything interesting on Lateline tonight?
The Lateline story on the wrongful dentention story is heartbreaking. Labor MUST do something about these centres!!! Any parent who saw this story and still votes for Howard needs to have theair head examined.
And we all know that Howard’s Childcare upfront payment will benefit one froup – ABC Learning Centres
A childcare lobby group says Labor’s plan to bring down the cost of childcare is better than the Coalition’s scheme unveiled at its launch in Brisbane today.
Under the Coalition’s plan, the 30 per cent childcare rebate would be paid directly to providers so parents are not out of pocket.
The chairperson of the Taskforce on Care Costs, Juliette Bourke, says Labor’s proposed 50 per cent rebate on childcare costs would be more effective.
However she says the Coalition’s measures are welcome.
“In the sense that its an acknowledgment that parents are experiencing difficulty in balancing work and care, primarily because of the cost of care,” he said.
“It’s positive that it brings forward the payment towards when they actually need it, but obviously there’s some room for improvement in the sense that it doesn’t do anything to the level of reimbursement.”
A childcare lobby group says Labor’s plan to bring down the cost of childcare is better than the Coalition’s scheme unveiled at its launch in Brisbane today.
Under the Coalition’s plan, the 30 per cent childcare rebate would be paid directly to providers so parents are not out of pocket.
The chairperson of the Taskforce on Care Costs, Juliette Bourke, says Labor’s proposed 50 per cent rebate on childcare costs would be more effective.
However she says the Coalition’s measures are welcome.
“In the sense that its an acknowledgment that parents are experiencing difficulty in balancing work and care, primarily because of the cost of care,” he said.
“It’s positive that it brings forward the payment towards when they actually need it, but obviously there’s some room for improvement in the sense that it doesn’t do anything to the level of reimbursement.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2088795.htm
Well I just wrote a huge bit about Overington, and of course when I clicked submit up came the “wordpress” page. Oh well lol.
I don’t know if Chris Mitchell actually defended her that well – calling her a
“colour writer” is a bit of a backhander for a Walkley winner.
Albrechtsen though can do what she likes – she IS a columnist. So she wants Turnbull to get up as leader. Big deal. Phillip Adams no doubt had a million similar conversation regarding Rudd and Beazley. When you read Janet A, you don’t think of her as a journo, and she always has “opinion” near her byline. Afterall she called for the end of Howard (you think that did the Liberal Party any favours??) and I doubt anyone thought that was “crossing a line”, so she can do what she wants at Lib party functions.
Whoops, sorry about the reposts in the message – pollbludger went down . William, can you edit the post for me ?
This is where media watch ripped the guts out of Albrechtsen and made look a total snide fool.
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/muslim.htm
Mediawatch has leaked the Overington/Ecuyeh story to Lateline. Gotta love the ABC.
Certain irony that the Coalition launched their campaign in Kevin’s seat.
555 Noocat:
One of my favourites:
“You’re from Labor -you’re the guys who want to keep the Queen”
The team at crosby/textor must need all hands tonight – no sign of Tabitha, or Glen or any other incarnations of the needlessly provocative right.
Unless they were all in the audience at the Launch
591
Marktwain Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 11:02 pm
Mediawatch has leaked the Overington/Ecuyeh story to Lateline. Gotta love the ABC.
….
Free speech is a wondrous thing
The point about Albrectson, which made the Media Watch story very significant, is that she’s on the ABC Board.
#584 Midnorthcoast: That has already been remarked upon, and was the basis for my comments, and those of some others. And yes, I think that older men, who spent most of their lives in a workforce where unions and centralised bargaining were givens, may see implications of WorkChoices that others mightn’t.
I note that some of Labor’s election ads are targeted at suburban mothers. Labor may think it’s done enough (or Howard’s policies have done enough) to capture the men from the coalition.
There’s still been absolutely from the coalition to capture the Under-25s, and plenty of things (like WorkChoices and HECS fees) to piss them off. I’m sure Rudd’s constant mentions of climate change and broadband are aimed specifically at this age group, and Labor will probably have ssome tertiary education promises in the campaign launch on Wednesday.
The only thing the coalition has offered tertiary students is bursaries for the bush. It’s a good policy, but basically National Party pork which won’t swing any marginals.
4 Corners
Rattle, confuse, intimidate. Earn loyalty. All the hallmarks of an abusive relationship. Very hard to escape.
594 Blindoptimist – I think they might have been hauled down to the RBA to get a lesson in economic management. The Bank named tax cuts as one of the reasons for inflation rising.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/reserve-bank-to-earth-nice-policy.html
anyone got any predictions for what might be announced on Wed?
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 15 » Show All