Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.
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Bennelong and Herbert “polls”
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It’s good to see that Labor are trying to directly counter the myth about the government being a great economic manager. Their latest advertisement is on howardfacts.com. I presume that it will appear on television (?).
http://www.howardfacts.com/
As a long-time Herbert-watcher, I’d argue that both parties actions speak louder than polls.
Exhibit 1: The PM hasn’t been up there yet, But K07 has been to Cairns, Townsville and everywhere in between. No one is going to dislodge Katter (Kennedy) or Kelly (Dawson) in neighbouring seats, but Labor obviously thinks that they’re very competitive the tropical city-based electorates. The Libs’ seem to be husbanding their strength by going hard down south in electorates like Ryan and Blair (!)
Exhibit 2: Peter Lindsay has openly been making promises that have not been pre-approved by the boss – on roads, sporting facilities and walkways – suggesting that he doesn’t have ready access to the pork fighting funds. Crucially, he hasn’t chosen yet to match Colbran’s relatively piddling $20 Mil promise to help secure a popular V8 supercar race up there.
The poll itself is no big deal, though not good news for the Libs obviously. What’s really more important is the leaked internal ALP funding that showed Colbran ahead in Lindsay before the campaign had started. He’s popular for his support of local causes and personal success. He’s got party support and his own money to spend from his Maccas empire. He’s also firming in the betting.
When Herbert swings, it swings, baby, and the voters there have elected a member from the governing party in every election since 1972. My bet is that it’s been written off by the gov’t – on a 6.5% margin it’s still outside the firewall.
Adam you are talking about an electorate that for an extra $20 a week you get a 2% bounce in the poll (ah the old dead cat bounce). That when you think about it is unbelievable.
They will get a bounce again
Rudd already had a campaign launch back in early October when everyone was getting impatient with Howard’s dithering over calling the election. I guess he is having a second one now (wednesday).
I won’t be surprised if more people tune into Rudd’s campaign speech than they do to Howard’s. I think there a lot more people interested in what Rudd has to say, especially now that the vast majority expect him to be PM in less than two weeks. Rudd’s budget reply back in May got a larger television audience than Costello’s actual budget speech.
Sorry, centaur, I’ve no idea what you mean. Extra $20 a week of what? What is unbelievable? Who will get a bounce, and why?
Howard: Vote for me or else the orangutan gets it!
This is grotesque stuff, and it sure tickled David Marr’s funny bone on Insiders yesterday.
Funny, but the cane toad to his (far!) right didn’t seem to get the joke. Cane toads are such humourless creatures.
14 & 15,
Thanks much
:):) …. Dry or not, I wanted to see it 
Kroger is just making things up as he goes along. In urban seats, the “sitting member factor” is worth 2% at the most, and that’s only for sitting members with positive images. A hard worker like Billson might get 2%. A log like Ticehurst will get 0%. Damaged goods like Laming will get minus 2%, and so on. None of this dodging and wriggling alters the historically proved fact that if there is a big swing the urban seats go down like dominoes.
Ruddock was let out last night for an interview with David Spears on the 9:30pm Agenda program. Didn’t hear what he had to say because I couldn’t get my finger off of the mute button
Thank you Jason for your ‘local knowledge’ of Herbert. As A QLDer I wasn’t aware that it was also a bellwether seat. I guess those southerners only focus on Eden-Monaro. Chalk one more up for ‘THE RUDDSTER’!
Thanks aussieguru – though of course I meant 1975 ooops.
close enuff!! lol
Went to a candidates’ forum for Chifley in the sylvan suburb of Bidwill yesterday. Only four out of nine turned up ALP, GRN, CDP and SEP. ONP’s candidate, a bar attendant, was working, That left the three others uncaring enough not to even bother sending an apology.
Most notable of those absent was carpet bagger, Jess Diaz who is standing in the Liberal interest. Diaz is a lawyer a(nd interestingly the bro’ of the 1969 Miss Universe, Gloria Diaz).
Diaz has net been seen at any forum for candidates in Chifley other than the SBS Indigenous Issues in Blacktown forum. Not even one organised by the Filipino community of which Diaz claims to be a leader.
Chifley is safe Labour but one would think that Diaz who would have to be prepping for a run in Blacktown’s Ward 5 again would turn up to these things even to just to shore up the Senate vote.
William
Senate Victoria
Any Senate/ State wide Party polls due next week?
Analysis of Victoria ATL tickets does not look stri9ng for Labor who needs at least 41% of the vote. The ALP looks more then less needs to secure all three quotas without help from any minor parties to secure three.
Depending on how strong the Liberals are the results is looking like a three Coalition and three Labor. If Labor polls below 41% then the Greens get up, If the Liberals poll below 37% (The Greens are elected on the strength of Liberal preferences and the ALP becomes the wasted quota). Family first would need to increase their vote to above 4% to be in the running and the LP is out of contention. The Democrats are just just a feeder for the Greens.
With the Greens needing to match their 2004 results at around 8.5%. Feedback from those in the know say the Greens are not doing as well as they did in 2004 they could readily become the wasted quota If the ALP polls strong and the Liberal vote does not drop below 37% primary statewide.
The initial data was showing a very close outcome indeed within 0.5% in Victoria.
A full detailed poll showing the state of each party state by state should provide the most likely outcome.
Love that new ad attacking the Libs economic management. Nice to see the ALP get some cojones on that issue. Rodent wont have been expecting to be fighting hand to hand behind his own imagined lines.
Sorry above should read DLP out of the game. They feed to Family first… estimated to be around 1.5 to 2.5% not enough to climb above the pack towards the end… There are reports of a strong consolidation around the major parties with little support showing for minor parties.
Adam @ 49 Does not the official Party launch switch off the tap for Government flights and ministerial benefits… This could be one reason why the campaign launch is latter and not much of a show stopper/starter…
By the way, aussieguru – check out the record on leichhardt (based on Cairns) – that *has* been a bellwether since 1972. Things have gone pear-shaped on the conservative side, where there’s a three-cornered contest following the retirement of Warren Entsch (I’ve written about it here (link). Anyway, it’s another place that the PM’s avoided.
STOP PRESS: Rudd’s in Townsville AGAIN this morning.
Melb city. That is spot on. Once the “official” launch happens MP’s have to fund their campaign solely on party funds. This affects the Libs more than Labor, as labor have the unions backing thme heavily.
I would like to see it changed so that you launch within 14 days from the date of dissolution (this is mainly to give oppositions and minor parties time to get their act together).
Judging by the timing of this years, it would mean campaigns are restricted to about 4 weeeks. First 2 weeks leading up to official launch paid by the taxpayer, the 2 subsequent weeks paid by the parties.
And lets face it, 4 week campaigns would be a god send for all of us. this one has been going on long enough.
Jason you are our PB’s official North QLD correspondent. Your more a Guru than I am! Thanks. Rudd power – gets all stains OUT )-: !!
(-: sorry!
Albert re 50 – I think that Kroger’s argument re local candidates is a case of ‘clutching at straws’. I was listening to Bevan and Abraham interviewing the candidates for the Adelaide seat of Makin, Bob Day and Tony Zappia, on ABC891 this morning. At one point there was a segment where Makin voters were asked who the local candidates were and they either didn’t know or didn’t care who they were – all the voters on this segment said they were voting for either Howard or Rudd.
Presumably Kroger is saying something, anything, vaguely plausible to keep the party workers thinking that there is some point to it all.
When Labor get in I hope it is on the primary vote in each of the key seats that we need to win.
I don’t like that we have had to make prerference deals with the devil (the Greens) to gain lower and upper house seats.
The Greens have pushed the idiology boat “out too far” and I don’t want the party beholden to a lunatic far left fringe.
Jason: Do you think Herbert has become another NQ bellwether? I know it went to the ALP in 83 and to the Libs in 96. I’ve been amazed how the fact that Townsville city council, the 3 State seats are all Labor but federally it’s Liberal. I think Adam pointed out that Herbert has contracted in size due to more people living within the city boundaries so there are less rural voters. Let me know what you think, as I still a bit fond of where I grew up.
has anyone read Milne’s piece in the GG today. He’s on the Chicken ‘Lil bandwagon! The sky’s a fallin’, the sky’s a fallin!!
He really is ridiculous.
Melbcity, so far as I know that is a myth. The campaign launch has no official status and no relevance to anyone’s entitlements.
Seems Rudd is going to make a defence policy announcement while in Townsville, as he is out at Lavarack Barracks. This would be very interesting indeed, but making an announcement on the Libs policy launch day could mean it won’t get much attention unless it’s a big announcement.
Did anyone hear Malcom Fraser being interviewed by Fran Kelly this monrning. She quickly got the ministerial accountability stuff out of the way and then said: “gerard henderson thinks that you’ve moved so far to the left that you vote for Labor, do you?” Fraser dismissed the question (’who I vote for is my business’) and was so p’d off that he didn’t say thanks or goodbye when Kelly then ended the interview. It was truly embarresing and pathetic, the sort of thing you’d expect tracy Grimshaw to ask and she knew it. Howard’s ABC.
Newspoll publication on 8 Nov confirms that the electorate is consolidating around the major parties. The Greens in Victoria are well below their threshold on 7%, ALP at or above 42-43% and the Liberals holding on around 40% I expect all other minor parties will poll about the same as in 2004 total 5%. Greens lose out. ALP/LIB 3 all.
#78 I’m with Adam. The campaign launches means nothing. They’re a waste of space being held at the end of the campaign, three weeks after the debate.
Every candidate in every seat would have their own personal “campaign launch”, and the Nats would have a separate launch from the Libs (has it happened yet?).
I would have though that, once the election was called, all campaigns have to be funded by the parties, not the taxpayers. The taxpayers then reimburse the parties, post-election, on the basis of how many votes they get.
Milne on Costello “What if he’s telling the truth?”
Well Greg, what if he isn’t? What if he hasn’t got a clue? What if you’re just another tired old hack too deep in your cups to know which way is up, let alone whether the sky is falling or not?
Milne is a pile of steaming BS, and the US financial collapse has been, is going, and will be going on for years, this is certain.
But Peter Costello will not be the next treasurer and certainly not the next Prime Minister, and this too is certain.
So we’ve got one last question for Milne: So what?
Sean, I think it’s a very fair question to put to Fraser, and like the Fraser of old he just got snooty when put on the spot.
The ABC have been so thoroughly beaten by the illiberals that they seem to think that government cheerleading is balanced.
Keating hated the ABC but he never took to them the way that the Rodent has, no doubt the ABC will rediscover its ‘frank and fearless’ role when the ALP take office. The ABC obviously know that the progressives who make up more and more of the ALP’s support base would never accept any serious damage to ‘Aunty’ so they feel they can be a bit more ballsy with a Labor government.
What a pity that the ABC has prostituted itself so basely to the anti-intillectual, fact fearing troglodytes who make up the Liberal party.
Adam It was a bit of surprise to me also, re: the limit to travel applying at campaign launch. I would expect Ministers would have enough frequent flyer points to keep travelling anyway.
16 lower house seats is a lot to win and the swings have to be uniform to bring about a workable majority.
80 & 84,
Seems his no answer was more of an answer than he realized
[that little bit of info is good enough for me 
, just wish he could bring himself to say it publically though ]
Just saw a Liberal ad for Deakin that was rather interesting. It started off talking about Victorian roads (”Remember these headlines?” – broken toll promise, etc.) and how State Labor “had failed”. Then it talked about Wall-to-wall Labor, showed a map of Australia in red with state boundaries, and said, “Same Labor, same failure on roads.” Then something like “Only Liberals like Phil Barresi can be trusted with Victoria’s roads”.
My impression was that it was moderately incoherent – were they warning about wall-to-wall labor or talking about roads, which one? Also, it must be pretty desperate times when attacking state management roads is the best they can do.
I think it is definitely a bellwether, Will. It’s not only during changes of government that the seat reveals itself as a barometer: in the Beazley “close but no cigar” election of 1998, Lindsay clung on by less than 200 votes when namesake Ted – who he beat in ‘96 – recontested.
You’re right about the council and the state members being Labor and the Federal member being Lib. Mirrors the remainder of the country pretty well, no? There are two explanations for this IMHO
1. It’s “naturally” Labor-voting in some ways, but the Army base throws it out of wack – through the direct defence voting bloc that it brings about and through the importance of the base to businesses around town. Conventional wisdom holds that the coalition are big spenders on defence, and that soldiers and those who take their money are pro-coalition. Overseas deployments mean soldiers come back loaded with cash to spend. (NB that the base is now, I’m fairly certain, in the State seat of Burdekin rather than Townsville).
2. Personal votes are important – state members like Mike Reynolds (who had a stint as mayor) and Mayor Tony Mooney have benefitted from this at the State and local level, but at the Federal level the electorate seems much more happy to back a winner.
Let’s wait and see what the announcement is!
#80 Sean, that’s a perfectly sensible question to ask of Fraser. I really can’t see how it could be interpreted as some sort of ABC bias.
And Fraser’s refusal to answer it suggests it was worth asking.
Personally, I think former leaders of any party have no influence over elections, and would be better off shutting up.
The only one who’s really making a useful contribution to this election is Bob hawke. He’s not saying anything controversial, but is doing a oot of face-to-face campaigning for Labor in the marginals. He’s the only ex-leader who might actually win some votes for his party, instead of diverting attention from the party’s campaign.
RBA sounds warning on inflation
Interesting timing.
So, moving right along since there is little to see in the polling all year so far, anyone know when the next AC Nielsen is out??
I guess Morgan will have another telephone and face to face out Friday (would have to show a liberal fightback wouldn’t it??) but ACN seems to be the one to watch at the moment.
Adam – Relevant to what?? It was a completetly irrelevant, tabloid style question that jolted with the substantive issue that he was on the program to discuss. It smacked of the current coalition obsession with outing people as alligned to the labor party (or the unions) as a way of negating their opinions. Bad. How do you think Fran would react if someone asked her who she intends to vote for while she’s pontificating on the insiders couch on a sunday monrning. Blo.dy impertinence..
And its good to see someone get p.ssed occassionally with dumb questioning. The trained monkey politicians are usually too timid to say boo.
Antonio, quite right. Hawke has a towering ego, but he knows how to harness it to the party’s interests, unlike Keating, Fraser and Hewson, who mostly want to draw attention to their own cleverness. If Labor does OK in the Perth marginals, Hawke will get a good deal of the credit. To be fair, Gough has been very quiet. No doubt he’s at home brushing up on his French for when Kevin offers him the Paris embassy.
Antonio said:
Got to disagree with you on this one … Paul Keating’s Lateline stint was brilliant.
Fraser is by his own choice a public figure, and is subject to the same rules as all other public figures. If he doesn’t want to be asked political questions, he should stay out of politics. He’s an arrogant prick and always has been.
Hey, Sean – was Fraser drunk? Did he have his pants on?
does anyone know what the title of that tune Andrea Bocelli is famous for? you know the one… “its time to, say goodbye…” etc. I want to get a copy of it for election night so I can sing along after a six pack…
Daniel B @ 88
The anti toll road campaigning is interesting, because just a few weeks ago, when Rattus Rattus announced a roads policy, he said the roads to be built would be toll roads!
Ok – Adam rules: anyone who is a public figure and who makes a comment about politics or standards/ ethics should have to own up for who they’re gonna vote for.
We can then (joe Hockey style) neatly categorise and dismiss there opinion as partisan, prejudiced, unbalanced, ‘labor’ ‘leftist’, ‘right wing’ etc . Not sure that’s gonna work adam. No one would say anything..
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