Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Bennelong and Herbert “polls”
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714 Comments
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adam @ 78 – on news radio a couple of weeks ago, a politics academic was talking about the campaign launch being the start of pollies having to foot their own travel etc bills – he seemed to know what he was talking about. does anyone have the definitive answer on this?
pastthe. i couldn’t find anything on the AEC site. but i didnt scour it either. but that was my understanding. Even ministers staffers who are all taxpayer funded can’t assist… it needs to be party staff doing the work. so its travel and staffing.
Returning to the topic of Bennelong, if Howard does scrape in but, as seems likely now, the Coalition loses, I hope Labor gives Maxine McKew another run in any subsequent by-election. Observing from afar (Adelaide) she (McKew) does not seem to have put a foot wrong, has worked very hard, and has clearly rattled the PM, who has acted in a most distracted way throughout the campaign. Given that McKew has effectively given up her own career to give Labor a chance in Bennelong, and appears capable, she should be shown some loyalty regardless of outcome.
I’m in Deakin and have just been polled by phone by a marketing company. Many questions on who I’m voting for generally and in the seat itself. Both Baressi and Symon were mentioned. Asked what issue I was most concerned about and who was better at handling education, environment the economy etc.
Seemed very professional in approach and not biased or any push polling going on. I asked if they could tell me who they are polling for but the interviewer said he didn’t know.
Gary: What’s your view on the likely result for Deakin at this stage of the campaign?
#96 Seems to me that the subject of how one intents to vote is a personal question. That is also supported by the principal of ballot boxes and anonymous voting.
Adam @# 96, your antipathy to Fraser, which I share, must mean you are of a certain age, that is, old enough to remember the events of October-November 1975.
The soft headedness of some people on the Left to Malcolm Fraser says more about them than him. I for one will never forgive Fraser, or for that matter, Renee Geyer, who sang the Liberal Party jingle, Turn on the Lights, in the ‘75 campaign.
That a former Liberal Prime Minister refuses to say that he will be voting Liberal is just extraordinary. Now Fraser is hated in some elements of the Liberal Party (Liberals always turn on their former leaders – watch what happens to Howard) but they did give him life membership just a few years ago.
Labor should make something on this – “Not even Malcolm Fraser votes Liberal anymore”.
Socrates @ 103,
It’s almost certain that McKew will run for Labor in a by-election if it happens soon after the election (i.e, if Howard wins his seat but loses government).
It’s also just as likely that McKew would win that by-election, unless the Liberals put up a star candidate (perhaps Turnbull if he loses Wentworth or possibly Kroger).
Spiros:
You’d actually be hard pressed to find any past leader or opposition leader that supports Howard.
Not even John Hewson likes him.
I know for certain the Your Rights at Work campaign has been very active in this seat, having once been to one of their meetings last year some time. They were going to target certain areas of the electorate.
My view is that Symon is in with a real chance here. House prices in my area have soared.
middleman@98
Time to Say Goodbye
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLHq7rgHOLk
Thank you Growler! i know its a song about lost love and all, but i think it will be fun to sing just as we are waiting for JWH to make his way to the stage at the Wentworth Hotel.
Andrew Robb on Sky dribbling shit again!
Any Bennelong bloggers here? Whats the latest intell from the ground?
Just on this point of ‘Campaign Launches’, the law on being in an ‘Office of Profit’ is quite clear and the judgements (in the case of Phil Cleary) also re-inforces the law. A person in an office of profit must resign from the point of nomination, not some ill-defined notion of ‘Campaign Launch’. I can’t see why this similar concept, which is what is all about, should not be applied in the exact same way.
The Lid is almost off!
hehe a little joke for the cats supporters out there
Go Rudd!
Davidoff and Sean…I don’t think former leaders should be required to say who they’re voting for, but it’s absurd to criticise someone for asking them, if they choose to enter the political debate
And as for Keating on Lateline- yes I saw him too, and he was quite entertaining. But whatever he says these days is only preaching to the converted. and not many people watching Lateline anyway – I doubt doubt that there are any votes to be swung by this program.
I think the appearance of Keating reminds people of high interest rates…just like Fraser reminds me of the dismissal and blocking supply, and the Vietnam war (yes I’m in that age group too).
I have some admiration for both Keating and Fraser in certain areas. But Rudd is more popular than Keating ever was, and I think even Howard now is more popular than Fraser was. So they should shut up, or do some door-knocking for their parties.
Dolly Downer Streaming on Sky news now!
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
Also, just chucked my $100 free bet for Cheeseman to win Corrangamite…2.20 odds
.. With my $50 bet on maxine at 2.60 I’ve got a clear $300 rolling in if they both fall… *Let’s out a baited breath*
Anyone have any idea how likely Corrangamite is to fall to the Reds?
Trav.
Now, although there were a few moments back in 1992…
The Labor Party should include this picture in their campaign ads. Kind of sums it up really…..
did someone say the lib launch was on radio?
“Not even John Hewson likes him.”
Hewson has disliked Howard since he worked for him an adviser in the 1970s, so that isn’t news.
But Hewson would not hesitate to say that he is going to vote Liberal.
Greensborough Growler’
Your too kind picking ‘Time to say good bye’ as the Liberal party swan song. Too classy. I have chosen a more Australian sound that I think would resonate with the general public on how to see out the days of the Howard junta. I welcome suggestions & feedback as this topic is important.
Ladies & gentleman I give you ….(drum roll) – The Angels
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBOqYCOUZPg
94 Adam,
Gough is 90+ and not in the best of health. I think it is unlikely that Rudd would send him away as an ambassador.
121- what picture?
Jules @ 118
“Dolly Downer Streaming on Sky News now!”
Erk. Sounds really icky. Thought there were filters to block that sort of stuff …
Malcolm Fraser was absolutely entitled to be p*ssed off.
I’m not over the 1975 bitterness, and don’t think Fraser has changed much since then (instead, the country has chanegd around him as we have swung to the right).
But to ask someone who they are voting for it outrageous. Fran should be ashamed. For someone who used to be so well prepped every morning for every interview, she seems to be slipping a bit of late.
M
Julie 125 – I think Adam may have been joking
Ooops, the link didn’t work, I’ll try again…
Im with stupid
130 Eljenxo – that’s great! Love Janette ever-watching in the background. Wait, not love… but you know what I mean.
Howard has just said that the government is free of debt. I read some where that it’s a furphy that they’ve paid off all the debt. Can anyone confirm that the govt has no debt and if it does have some debt, how much?
I tend to doubt that Fraser votes Labor. Notice that whenever he criticises the government – for say, running roughshod over civil liberties – he’s usually quick to also criticise Labor for being supine in its opposition.
It might also help to know where he presently lives. Anyone know? I doubt he’d have any hesitation voting Liberal in the seat of Kooyong, for instance.
Michael and Adam,
If so, I apologize. I was behind the barn door when they passed out the “do you get the joke?” gene before I entered this life.
I am always the last one to “get it”
“Herbert may well be indicative of the ‘defence’ vote. Being an ex-ADF officer, I know there is widespread disquiet amongst many in the services who feel they have been used as pawns by Howard in his attempts to brown-nose Dubya, and resent his attempts to use any defence-related opportunity for a photo-op.”
What a crock.
I live in Townsville and really no one cares. I think there is a belief out there that foreign events such as Iraq has more effect in ADF cities like Townsville, but I just don’t buy it. Yes Townsville has a lot of army personell, but it really isn’t as important to Townsville as it has been in the past… it’s like a flea on a dog really.. this city has boomed and it’s mostly from the mining sector.
And having said that if you don’t like the Iraq War(thats me for example) then you won’t join the army in the first place.
I think Colbran will win because of concern about WhatChoices, and he has been very active campaigning and getting his image out there and Peter Lindsay is a bit of a dudd. Plus he has promised the V8 supercar race in Townsville, whereas Lindsay has been stalling for years(Townsville is a hoon city, dunno if the V8 promise is a big vote changer though)
middle man @ 102 – thanks. i’m sure you’re right. once the launch happens, it’s goodbye to spending taxpayers’ money. that’s why they leave the launch ’til so damn late…
130 Bronwyn
I guess Janette was standing back because she didn’t want to be photographed with stupid…
lmao @ 137 Eljenxo. Wish I thought of that first!
Derek Corbett. Classic! i almost spat out my lunch!
Aussieguru. “Time to say goodbye” was my idea. I just didnt know what it was called. The Growler showed his class by knowing. Didn’t open the Angels link but I can guess it was “Am I ever gonna see your face again?”
I’ll have to listen out for it pumping across the suburbs of Griffith in election night.
it really was an inspired decision to have maxine go against the rat, wasn’t it? it’s distracted the old grunter no end.
true to his promise, kevin has “played with john’s mind”.
ooh, “sinking ship” campaign launch about to begin…
Rat in Radio National now.
133,
Dredging out the cobwebs, about 8 to 10 years ago there was a rather extensive interview with Fraser and his wife (don’t know if she is still alive now or not) in the Australian Women’s Weekly (it was the cover story that month). At the time, we lived in the US and I subscribed to the AWW as a way to keep in touch with local information here. Anyways, to the point. The article said where he lived and I don’t know if he still lives at the same place or not but I will try to describe as much as I remember. It is in the NW of Melbourne, out of the city proper. Don’t remember what suburb specifically, but it is a ranch/farm of some sort and he has a decent amount of property, a few sheep, that sort of thing. It isn’t WAY out in NW VIC but the article described it at the time as being both “in the country and still within reach of Melbourne”. I don’t remember more than that but that ought to limit it down to a few seats or less in order for you to eliminate all but one or two electorates. [Of course, assuming he hasn't moved since that article was written]
Coalition campaign launch just starting now:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
I can’t believe I’m torturing myself by watching the Liberal launch online.
Aw great, stand up for the national anthem please. Ergh.
Linsay voter. It is somewhat of a furphy. When people talk about bonds, the highest class of bonds are usually Commonwealth bonds. These are know in finance as debt instruments. And yes the govt continues to issue them. At one stage Costello floated the idea of doing away with them, as the govt didn’y really need them, cos they didnt need to raise funds by borrowing. However the bond markets rely on them as their foundation, and the banks convinced him to continue issuing them.
That’s the worst synthesiser national anthem backing track of all time.
Oh my gosh Batman … this is awful … it’s like a bad game show … cringe-making crap … are they mad … who is that compere goose … this has Hyacinth’s paws all over it …
Got that right middle man!
147 – ShowsOn – wasn’t it?! And who is the owner of the AUssie Idol-style singing?!
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