Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Bennelong and Herbert “polls”
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714 Comments
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Howard is gone.
Those are the best ideas they can come up with after 11 years? They’re not even the best ideas for getting themselves re-elected.
Stand-by for some people on Wednesday who have actually developed some policies.
An exit strategy article from Oakes:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/the_embassy_rooftop_strategy.htm
Sounds like the speech writers were let go well before today, me thinks.
Channel 9 has just lifted Howard’s spending spree to ten billion. The media must be still adding it all up.
LOL! Just saw Ch 7’s news article about the launch and it had Costello yawning. That would make such a good ad.
Darn:
Well, I listened to the campaign launch. I know I am biased, but even trying to be as objective as possible, I thought it was an absolute dud. But aside from the general atmosphere and Howard’s rather shaky performance, the big grand me-too by Howard on all three of his major policies was a disgrace. he is obviously not even trying now.
There is no doubt that the government’s campaign is in a mess. After all the talk about today’s policies expected to “blow Rudd out of the water”, what an anti-climax. How can these policies have such an effect when all that Howard has done is copy Rudd’s policies aside from a few minor adjustments?
Is Howard now trying to use a small target strategy? Big mistake when you are this far down in the polls. Or does he think that if he tries to portray himself as a Labor leader and his party as a Labor Party that people will want to vote for him instead of the actual Labor Party? It is bizarre, truly bizarre. The Liberal Party doesn’t know what it stands for anymore. The federal party is quickly falling into the void that the state parties fell into some time ago.
Howard has just made himself irrelevant today.
There are no reasons to vote for him. With no original policies for the future and a plan to retire after the election, why bother voting for him? Why risk it, when you might get Costello and a potential hardening of WorkChoices?
The Liberal party has shown gross incompetence throughout this campaign. And those in the media who keep cheerleading for them only make themselves look even more foolish now.
400 steve
A bit thin is correct.
I don’t know about you but all these dollar aggregates over a specified number of years – it’s just all gobbledegook to me. Dollars mean diddly squat – I want to know what the guaranteed outcome will be.
Otherwise, as JHW has proved time and again, it’s just an empty promise. The idea that you can promise everything to everyone is just bizarre – even a 5yo can work that one out.
Realistically we should be talking percentages – what proportion of Government income is spent in what sector? By what delivery method?
The messy mthod of announcing your positives and hoping your opposition doesn’t notice your deficits is a wank, for all parties.
It comes down to generalities and selfishness for the uneducated voter.
JWH has been the master of language (weasel words) for a long time now, but it feels like the world is turning, and Rudd is definitely the master of general vision at the moment.
For anyone watching the US scene – is the neo-con power of language also diminishing over there?
No need for education revolution according to Howard.
http://www.grods.com/post/1618/
Michael @ 366
Keep it. Tuck it away. For future reference. Bastardos.
So if the coalition has just pledged $10b, does that mean if they spend more then they go below the 1% GDP budget surplus target? I know someone made a mention earlier today that the coalition only had $10b left to spend. If that is so, then Rudd can spend less than $14b and show he is better than Costello/Howard.
I was expecting something far better!
Welfare for parents of private school educated kids, some dodgy policy for first home buyers etc. Is that all they’ve got?
Where is this supposed huge health announcement Shanahack was hinting at two weeks ago?
Even funnier: the Liberal campaign launch didn’t make the first 6 stories on Nine 6PM news in Sydney. It makes you wonder if commercial TV finally realises the Rodent is on the way out?
Rudd’s launch on Wednesday: I hope he’s got a few huge things on education to announce, that should seal the deal.
406 Noocat
100% agree
I thought there was going to be at least the pretence of an intellectual fight to the line.
The Libs are tired, worn out and I’ll bet they want to go home after today.
I expect after the last round of internal polling over the weekend that dozens of seat campaigns were shut down today to save any remaining cash. Defeat is in the air, and for many, it’ll have come as a relief.
For a campaign that was buzzing with excitement the Libs killed it today.
With a bit of luck the ALP can generate enough energy on their own for the next 2 weeks – they won’t want to hit govenment on a flat note.
Howard.[Mr Howard said he wanted to make sure Australia is a compassionate nation as well as a prosperous nation in the future.]
Was this the joke somebody said he tried? I thought he has worked for twelve years against these ideals. Or has the Tampa and siev x been written out of history along with Dr Haneef?
From 7 Perth’s Newsmail on the Campaign Launch.
Yep, one whole sentence.
sums it up really.
What do people think about the ‘removing of capital gains for parents in share equity houses’? I see it as opening up the complete removal of CGT, which we know the Libs want to get rid of.
Come 2 days time “THE RUDDSTER’ will be launching his campaign at the same venue in his OWN electorate. A good omen no doubt!
Rudd announced a huge one today but it got washed over in the press with the Libs campaign launch, however lame it was. Mind you, the target audience here though will KNOW that this is out there and it will SWING votes.
“While at Lavarack, home to the army’s 3rd Brigade, Mr Rudd also announced a plan to provide free basic medical and dental care to all immediate family members of defence personnel.”
For those who aren’t in the know about how the military works, current policy is free care for the service member ONLY. That is why this is such a HUGE positive thing by the Rudd team
.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/labor-matches-coalition-defence-spend/2007/11/12/1194766563193.html
Interesting: http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/air_of_defeatism_in_libs_campaign_launch.htm
A few in the media are starting to write up ‘reviews’ of what went wrong….. Can it really be all over?
417 julie. Bet the Member for Herbert was happy to hear about that.
On Melbourne radio 3AW, Alison Caribine said there was “an air of defeatism” at the Coalition launch despite their best efforts to whip up a frenzy. They were members of a defeated government “going through the motions”, she said.
ABC’s Chris Uhlmann told PM that there was a sense of optimism around the Coalition with many ministers genuinely believing they could still win.
Will From Kooyong
The shared equity thing could increase house prices, I have looked for detail on this but can’t find any yet.
If I can have 99.9% equity and my kids 0.01% Wow what a killing I could make.
Especially as it is not means tested. Look out Noosa Waters here I come (again).
Julia: thank you for the underlying context.
Click, click, … now it makes sense.
418 The expected date of the Narrowing is now July next year after not being sighted after the budget, after calling of election, or after campaign launch.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/teh-surge-teh-narrowing-teh-victory/
s/julia/julie
Onimod, yep, agreed. I expect Labor’s launch on Wednesday will be a huge contrast. It will be brimming with positive vibe, if for no other reason than the fact that the audience will be smelling potential victory for the first time in many years.
I also expect Rudd to have some new policies to announce that the Labor Party actually developed. There will be no me-too crap stunts like Howard tried to pull off today.
Looks like we weren’t the only ones to smell defeatism in the launch today. Here is Laurie Oakes:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/air_of_defeatism_in_libs_campaign_launch.htm
Well I guess Herbert just got well and truely porked by Rudd.
OK – call me paranoid, but I’m still checking the news from the other side of the pacific for noises related to Iran and the inevitable terrorist, border-patrol, defend-the-beaches, hide-your-mothers-and-children spin.
Were Uhlmann and Caribine actually at the same launch? Amazing isn’t it?
415 Will from Kooyong
I’m no economist, but my understanding is that that proposal will only perpetuate the housing crisis for another generation, by lifting the net present value of a property. Again – great if you’re already in the market (or your parents are) but no good if you’re not.
I need someone with cred to think this through.
On channel 9 Adelaide, the Lib launch was the TENTH news item and the phrase “landslide loss” featured prominently.
ACOSS on dental care for teenagers.
http://www.acoss.org.au/
Herbert got porked with the V8 Super Cars, but this pork was directed at military bases all around Australia but Townsville is the biggest outside of Canberra so it was the place to launch it. Lets not forget that Darwin is also another military town that got porked today.
429 onimod
421 ruawake beat me to it (whew – we agreed)
Housing Industry Association view
http://hia.com.au/hia/news/article/MR/National/EC/HIA%20WELCOMES%20BI%20PARTISAN%20SUPPORT%20FOR%20HOUSING.aspx
wheres the bounce
ruawake @ 377
Whew! Nice. Neat. Ta for link.
Where’s the support for public housing and the HIA descibes the private housing as ailing?
Ok so someone help me out here. What’s the difference between Howard’s savings plan and Rudd’s savings plan?
howard is an economic and political genius
rudd just happens to come up with good ideas occassionly
(just helping out our rightoids)
Matt
Rudd’s saving plan has a 15% tax, Howard’s has no tax and if you have rich parents or grandparents they can sling you ten grand as well. But you can only claim one grand of family money as a tax deduction.
I believe this classic should have been the Liberal theme.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=S9oaXzrsV3Q
#441 ROTFL
Man, I hate Judith Durham!!!
I believe I can hear the spluttering of a dying rodent…
Matt,
As ruawake said, Howard’s is tax free but only for the first $1K. Rudd’s plan allows you to put up to 10% of income in to the account, there is a certain % that is taxed at 15% and is pre-taxable income, the rest comes from your taxable income and is taxed as normal.
Howard’s plan doesn’t promote savings, other than the rich giving their children money to be a tax dodge. Those families that can’t afford to give $1K to their kids miss out.
Okay, quite a bit of movement on Herbert in the sportingbet site today.
This morning when I put my bet in, Colbran was 1.90 and Lindsay was 1.80.
Now, Colbran is 1.60 and Lindsay is 2.20… Mr. Rudd’s visit has someone given someone confidence!
2 lib ads in a row on TEn Perth – Interest Rates and Julia in Shades.
How desperate.
Oh and expect Howard to criticise Rudd on Wednesday for using an Autocue.
or in yoda speak:
Marris not impressed by Launch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22744849-5014047,00.html
Ten Perth focussing on Cowan – Lib says No 1 Issue is Crime and Hoons.
ALP – Housing Affordability.
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