Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
niiice
The Narrowing! The Narrowing!
The last set of polls ALL showed Liberals primary tailing off – the hint was there.
(or not, as the case may be)
48% – The Rock of Gibraltar
Well that’s it. They are cooked. All four polls now show movement to Labor. They cannot turn this around in 12 days. Now it’s just a question of whether this will be a defeat or a rout.
Come in possum…..
What a surprise – the same poll result as we’ve got since January. Nothing has changed and no one is listening. We have long been past the stage where the government needs a miracle to survive – Howard npw needs something approaching divine intervention! This election is entirely Labor’s to lose at this point (though in 2004, Latham couldn’t have been said to have lost the campaign until week 6, and of course, Latham Labor was enver so far ahead as the Rudd version). Given the polished way Rudd & co have carried themselves this year, it’s hard to see Labor conceding any sort of own goal, then it’s looking increasingly like the 55-45 we’ve been seeing all year will be the actual election result.
now i just gotta stay up another hour to read Shanners.
surely he has to concede now
Sure, but what proportion of that 48% is soft support….;)
From the previous thread:
I think this is just a correction from last week. I thought 53 (which was actually 54 due to rounding and preference distribution) was on the lower side. 55 to me is the magic number, it is where things have been for ages.
The rumour is 3 – 6 months of paid maternity leave.
Exellent – I got a couple of bets on today – including 2 free $100 ones! C’mon Kevin, Maxine, and Peter T in Stirling. Looking at combined 6-1.
Nice numbers…and so to bed..
This is the anti-narrowing. It is just like the narrowing, only exactly the opposite. I wonder whether they’ll bother having the launch tomorrow. Perhaps they’ll donate the money for it to cancer cures, or AIDS prevention in sub-Saharan Africa.
Okay, sorry. I wonder how hard it’ll be to fake a smile, a wave, a cheerful grin.
the tone and demeanour of the Libs tomorrow at the launch is gonna be fascinating
My Dennis Shanahan version in tomorrow’s Australian…
‘Howard proves remarkably resilient as he pulls off another masterstroke’
“When everyone around him is falling over like dominoes, John Howard remains steady on his feet and determined to move forward no matter what. His grand master plan in the interest rate rise week was to make himself the election campaign issue. This focused the media on Howard’s english skills and took the sting out of the interest rate rise which should have seen Labor winning by an additional 2-3% in the TPP Newspoll. The fact that the poll remains steady is down to the genius of the PM. Labor has now failed to make the necesary gains to prevent a win from behind by the Grandmaster of them all. Labor have fallen into Howard’s come from behind trap and are now down for the count.”
From the Government Gazette Information Spinster.
[tongue in cheek]Forget about Newspoll. Kevin Rudd is going to Rove next week. He will have to answer the question whom he would turn gay for.
I can see this will have massive implications for the last week of the campaign.[/tongue in cheek]
As Isabella said the other night these are a set of numbers to tug yourself to sleep by. Hope theres ACN this week to confirm this.
PJK – which agency allows you to combine bets?
Gonna be a fun day for Howard tomorrow. Stand by for Bennelong poll to top it off.
There’s only 1 real poll and that is on election day. Who will be first to say it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5muLIq9PqUk
A lovely tune for everyone to call it a night to!!!
Will make the Liberal policy launch an occasion to remember – More ‘Long Chins’ than the Hong Kong telephone directory is my tip.
There’s a ridiculous amount of turbulence in the Newspoll’s during the campaign.
Look at the dark purple line bounce up and down.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-tpp-x-2007endgame.png
It will be even worse once the new poll is added.
Maybe Rod Cameron is right and that Nielsen and Galaxy are what we should go by. All the polls get their end of term report card on November 24 I guess.
Howard will promise Nirvana. But it won’t matter a damn.
He’s one spitted rat.
Oh, the humanity! Shibboleths of media hacks exploding into flames and crashing to the ground!
Oh well, just another 2 weeks and they’ll be carrying out the Rodent’s corpse and I hope they get the Pied Piper to call up all his little rodent friends out there in MSM land.
Oh, what a sight!
sweet hallelujah
PJK for President… hopefully you’re still around!
I signed up for the free $100 bet thingo a couple of hours ago, but it hasn’t been credited to my account – which is still sitting on $30… how long did it take you to get the credit?
I say combined – but actually they are separate bets. If they all come in a get a cobined 6-1.
And if this is the Spewspolls, just imagine where the others will go!
I agree with you ShowOn. But for some reason the Political Journalists see Newspoll as the truthful writ.
It could possibly get better as undecideds in the last week [26% of voters in 2004] broke 59/41 to Latham’s Labor and according to Anthony Green undecideds tend to break 2/1 in favour of the trend. This should mean Howard has a lot more work to do than appears.
John Rocket the free bet is separate to your account. Go to free bets, and you have to make it in 1 go the whole $100
Education rebates from Howard for campaign launch
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-education-fightback/2007/11/11/1194766508060.html
ok Im gonna move my last comment over here too..
could it be.. the Widening?
John Rocket, you need to find the “Free Bet” link and then place it wherever you like.
May I suggest a very tasty Rodent at a zillion to one? LOL
If the ALP can maintain this sort of TPP vote throughout the assault next week then in the words of the prophets-”The writing is on the wall!!”
IMHO this election truly is about John Howard,nothing more and nothing else.All of the Tory Vermin and their fellow travellers have never understood this point.
Australia wants to be rid of this man and his era.The more he struggles against his fate the worse it is going to get for him.
Kismet,Hardy,Kismet!!!!
Anything that chimp Howard does now will be seen to smack of desperation. 6 months paid maternity leave? gee his mates in the BCA and the Employer groups will love that one as will his beloved small business base-no doubt he will exempt them from it.
I REPEAT
GOOD GOD
THE BETTING HAS DONE IT AGAIN.
Match point Mr Rudd,
ACN Poll for the match.
Um, hasn’t Howard been trying to capture “political momentum” all year?
asanque @ 32
What a tactic, target the one area Labor hasn’t announced a big policy on yet, leaving yourself open to a counter-punch at the Labor launch two days later.
I just plunged some decent moolah on about 16 seats I think are ripe for the picking on the pendulum. The individual seat odds are just too good to ignore knowing that Labor has a rock solid 47-48 primary.
I drove from Melbourne to Lakes Entrance on Saturday and back again on Sunday.
did not notice any signs at all through the electorate of La Trobe on the way to Lakes, in the seat of Gippsland noticed and about half half (McGauran will never lose Gippsland).
On the drive back today noticed the same story wrt Gippsland.
But driving through La Trobe there were ‘Your Rights at Work’ posters up literally every few hundred metres along the highway just before Traralgon. There must have been at least 40 of them, no Liberal or Labor signs at all. In my mind this was a great demonstration of the precise targetting that is happening at the moment.
I put some money on La Trobe to turn Labor tonight as a result.
So, some more me-tooism from Johnny. Doubt we’ll hear it reported that way by the MSM of course…
Oh well, i can go to bed now – i was wondering why the betting markets, especially betfair, had moved so much today.
The $4 there didn’t last long – and there wasn’t much available at that price in the first price but the fact it got there is a good sign.
Sweet dreams all
Bookies article from the Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bookies-have-labor-firming-as-favourite/2007/11/11/1194766508093.html
Yeah, but Howard totally wedged Labor on Orang-utans. He has the ENTIRE Orang-utan vote locked up now. That of course includes Ron Boswell.
Howard is now going to give us all tax breaks for private school fees. Great. That should do it.
F@#k he’s one stupid rat. That’s going to fix everything. Not.
You mean McMillan, not La Trobe.
44 LOL
Hi Jarusa if youre the same one Im thinking off. Nice little double with Juddy and now Ruddy.
Funny that this is mentioned so late at night on Sky. If the poll was favourable to Howard, it would have been leaked much earlier. This explains the betting plunge on betfair, blowing the Libs out to almost $4.00.
ShowsOn, you’re very cruel. Honest, fair, turthful. But cruel.
‘Turthful’ is swahili for ‘honest’, BTW
So Howard is going to do yet another me-too, eh? I think this is in a similar league to broadband. A great idea from Labor that gained a lot of traction with voters, so Howard steps in to try to trump it by throwing even bigger bucks at it.
hyper extended negative narrowing.
Sorry, yes McMillan not La Trobe.
…. and yes, go Judd!!
ShowsOn @ 44
You know I actually thought the whole Orangutan thing showed Howard doing something honest and decent for a change, if I didn’t intensely dislike him it would have been quite touching. It is the kind of story that if on ACA or similar would have won Howard some votes.
Also, great work on your election day target so far. Keep it up.
The economic issue must not be front and centre anymore if Libs are now targetting and moving to the Labor stronghold of education for their caimpaign launch. This is exactly where Rudd wants the Libs to move to at this crucial point of the campaign. Has Rudd been messing with Howard’s mind again?
hyper extended reflexive dematerialised narrowing
Is Bribie Island to get 25 nuclear power plants under Liberal Policy or will another 24 places be named at their policy launch.
The big tax cuts failed and economics is meant to the LNP strong point; education belongs to Labor, he can promise what he likes it wont make a difference.
with a particularly narrow monad in view
Guys, if you’re gonna place a bet, your sanest strategy is with sportingbet. Put $30 down on the election itself, then put your free $100 on maxine.
lol@ 44
Orangutangs got porked.
Go Rattus
Labor knew the education tax-rebate was coming. The Libs couldn’t help blurting out that they would have a “more comprehensive” approach when Labor came up with its rebate for laptops etc.
Kev will out-maneuver Howard when he announces his policy on Wed.
CLde F, correct, the translucent albino Yeti.
A brilliant poll for the ALP. Surely Coalition supporters must at least be contemplating a change of government at this stage (I’m looking at you steven_kaye).
Following up on Jarusa earlier… whilst I have been disparaging of the ALP campaign so far I think the YRAW campaign has been very good and very effective. They’ve been out there working hard for a long time now and that could very well be a reason for the ALP’s sustained position in the polls. I constantly see cars with YRAW stickers, and when I’m out and about often see YRAW teams out handing out balloons, getting petitions signed etc.
I live in Eden-Monaro and every Thursday for the year, rain or shine, there’s been someone on the road going into Canberra spruiking the YRAW message.
Less than 2 weeks to go now… at last it will be over.
sorry that should be hyper extended reflexive dematerialised non-narrowing. silly me!
Good yeh.
I just fed 55% 2pp into Antony’s HoR calculator. 92 seats to Labor = 7.7% swing. a beautiful set of numbers!!
ShanaHam right on target:
THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.
What a d1ck
link on ShanaHam: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html
What time is the DT updated online?
53
Paisano Says:
hyper extended negative narrowing
Ha ha ha ha.
The ‘negative narrowing’ we had to have.
Any news on the Bennelong poll?
Of interest is the fact that the Sky News report says this
“The latest Newspoll survey shows last week’s interest rate rise has affected the Coalition’s stance in the polls. However, Prime Minister John Howard still remains preferred economic manager over Kevin Rudd.”
I wouldn’t so much mind the pointer to economic manager numbers (although it might help if they gave them – and also showed, FWIW, what movement if any had occured), if a range of other pointers, such as the primary and 2pp preferred indicated that they were narrowing the gap in those other areas. Such a pointer might then be meaningful.
That this doesn’t appear to be the case indicates (and I’m being generous here), that the Sky journalists have problems identifying what constitutes relevant facts in such matters, and put any old non sequitur nonsense in to fill a paragraph.
That, or they genuinely believe that if they keep accentuating the “positive” it will begin to shift the polls in Howard’s favour. The political bias and favoritism I can tolerate – no point in getting cross about Rupert Murdoch working to further his business interests. But the delusionary belief in their influence at this stage in the game is truly mindbending.
Insider Expert Commentator (Pick your expert):
Yes this poll is all very well, but once the campaign proper starts, the polls will invariably tighten.
Another thing that should be highlighted is that Howard now has a net negative satisfaction rating. (albeit a small one).
Yes I agree, but it is really out of character for Howard.
You can’t remake a ~35 year political career during a single election campaign.
Thanks. My fear is I’ll make it to 80, but not 79. I feel really strong though, so either way it is working out good.
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
Haha, almost exactly what I said he would say. Clearly a sub wrote the headline, I’m sure Dennis would have gone with mine if he had the choice
oh, sorry, last question on sporting bet… I won’t turn this into helping the lamer morning!
on the web page, in the ‘my account’ area, there’s a menu on the right handside, in it there’s a link saying “My Free Bets” – following this – it says I haven’t got any free bets…
in the middle section of this ‘my account’ area… it’s got my name, my pin, my username, balance, pending bets and F/B (which I assume is Free Bets…) – this also has $0…
Am I missing something really obvious or is just inexplicable? if it is inexplicable, don’t worry, I ring them tomorrow and find out the prob… but yeah, it’s just that I’d like to get a bet on asap… (and yep, I’m doing the Alan H suggestion of betting Maxine!) So, if anyone does have any clue, it would be excellent!
Ever since Rudd trounced Howard in the debate he has been much more calm and easy going and prime-ministerial. He got Howard’s measure and he knew it.
Shanannahanan speaketh!
“THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html
Just checked http://www.sportsacumen.com
Seat by Seat betting WITH MULTIPLES.
Just did a WA Trifecta: Stirling, Hasluck, Brand, Swan and Cowan.
Easy Money!
I swear this is what Shammers actually says in his peiece in the Oz.
Laugh! I nearly fell off the chair. In fact, I did!
But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.
Amazing
Personally I think tax rebates for private school fees stink and together with the massive Federal funding they already receive is just more middle class welfare.
from The Oz’s very own Sham Feign (”Myself Alone”)
“But even after the rate rise and some slippage in support, Mr Howard remains the clear choice of voters on the issue of who is best able to manage the economy, with a lead of 14 percentage points. Before the rate rise, Mr Howard recorded a rating of 51 per cent on the issue, compared with Mr Rudd’s 32 per cent. The latest Newspoll shows support for Mr Howard slipping to 49 per cent and Mr Rudd’s jumping three points to 35 per cent. ”
So he’s even going backward there.
77
ShowsOn Says:
You can’t remake a ~35 year political career during a single election campaign.
Which is exactly why nothing Howard does now will make any big difference. He has played all his cards over the years and any attempt to make big, out-of-character ideology/policy shifts now will just be seen for as a cynical, unprincipled and desparate attempt to hang on.
nite all
Of course Tory Crimes… but the Liberal Party have an election to buy here and nothing can get in the way. How dare the Labor Party stand in their way. These ungrateful voters just don’t know what’s good for them.
And then there’s Dolly
Rudd is weak on national security. He is weak because he lacks substance. He lacks substance because he has little experience and even less conviction. He does not know what he stands for; nor does Labor. The world moved on; Labor stood still. Now they seek to copy but inevitably get confused and get it wrong. You cannot get it wrong on national security, the highest priority any government has. But Labor has and would.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740401-7583,00.html
Mr God – will this be two weeks of one big ‘funniest home video’?
I’ll allow myself to start searching for the LPs for an election night soundtrack
I think the sweetest song to play on will be Like a Rolling Stone
[i]Once upon a time you dressed so fine
You threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn’t you?
People’d call, say, “Beware doll, you’re bound to fall”
You thought they were all kiddin’ you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hangin’ out
Now you don’t talk so loud
Now you don’t seem so proud
About having to be scrounging for your next meal.
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone?
Is Howard trying to bait Rudd with this education rebate towards private school fees? Tempt him to do a Latham and alienate the ‘aspirationals’?
A good poll this. Narrowing, where for art thou????
If the best Rattus can come up with is more pork then he’s screwed. Even if its well targeted pork (ie: at small l liberals that are paying private school fee’s) then i suspect it will be too little too late. Large amounts of coin thrown into middle class welfare this late in the election campaign is sheer, blatant desperation. Particularly if its in the form of straight tax rebates which have got to be inflationary in the short term.
Hopefully the ALP will not try to match it $ for $. They need to realize that they don’t need to be desperate. They are at least 8-10 points ahead on the TPP and they have a primary of 47-48% for gods sake!!
Just stay the course, and hit the enemy hard with SerfChoices, Rattus Himself, and Fiscal Responsibility armed broadsides. That will do it.
When it comes to me-tooism, it works much better for an opposition than it does for a government. When an opposition does it, it can be more easily explained as a tactic, especially when it comes to Howard and the MSM and the need to avoid wedges. It can even point to the deep desire for an opposition to win, which in itself is important.
But when a government does it, it can look desperate. It highlights the notion that they have run out of ideas and lack vision and leadership. It therefore becomes easier to conclude that the government is no longer fit to govern and should be placed into opposition.
Shamaham would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.
Aspirational narrowing.
Vintage Shanahan,not allowed to see the wood for the trees because Murdoch says so.
The “OZ”,what a bunch of jerks!!!!!!!!!
Paisano, thanks for that – Mr AWB has spoken his words of wisdom – how delicious!
General Wenck has forsaken us oh the humanity!
Serenity Now!
Back to some sanity – just thought you guys would like that up top lol!
Oh well the bewdy of this is if we pull of a miracle and win ill be ecstatic but if we lose it won’t hurt as bad as if it came as a shock.
Unless they change soon i mean real soon i will have little faith the Tories can pull it off.
VoterBoy, he ain’t going nowhere, except out the back door at about Mach 3.
How does one keep doing the business in such circumstances? Maybe he will lose it big time. Could be a hoot. What would be fun would be an ACN at something radical – say 55-45 – followed by another Newspoll at something unusual – maybe 55-45.
Then election night live. We’ll all be in bed by 8:30, it having been called at 7:30 by AG. Guess what the 2PP will be?
Adieu!
Paisano @ 89. Before I clicked on your link, I read the text of your entry, and assumed that you had summarised Downer in a mildly parodic sense.
But he actually wrote that and put it out under his name.
What a strange, sad little man.
Another weakness in Sham – I -Am’s thinking is that maybe when the voters tell pollsters they don’t want tax cuts but want more services, they just might mean it.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/dollarssense-we-want-to-pay-more-for.html
Excellent. Less than 2 weeks to go now.
Night, all. And may your dreams be rodent-free.
Just get a room full of orang-utans to fill in a heap of postal votes in all the marginals.
‘room full of orang-utans’ – young liberals?
Paisano, well, I was voting for Andrews as world’s meanest, dumbest, and most embittered incompetent Minister before, but that quote from Dolly has really shifted my allegiance. That is world class drivel, tinged with best practice spite.
How does he do it so consistently?
Must be something to do with AWB. Bring on the real royal commission, i say!
Even they would probably vote for Rudd by mistake ShowsOn, oh the humanity lol!.
Ah well it could be worse and if we do lose i doubt it will be a pumping so if we are booted we’ll make it back one day.
Glen @ 12:46:
“Unless they change soon i mean real soon i will have little faith the Tories can pull it off.”
What, a change in leadership? It’s never too late for that, Glen.
99 Glen Says: November 12th, 2007 at 12:46 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
Five Stages of Grief
Are we at three? Or four?
Downer has been sitting in the one job scratching his bum for 11 years and, somehow avoided having to resign in all the disasters such as AWB, Habib’s torture and Iraq.
Glen, trsut me, you need to lose. You have to rebuild the liberal party in the states (esp NSW) and then you’ve got to get a bit of balance back.
Should be ready in about 12 years, I’d say.
Wow fagin let’s reduce our seats to 45 instead of 65 lol, no thankyou ‘unca howie’ will have to take us into battle no matter the cost.
Howie to the troops ‘Damn the Defiant!’
There can only be one choice for the LNP’s campaign song.
‘Rudderless’ by The Lemonheads.
They are so pooned. See ya in hell, Johnny.
The increase in the latest Newspoll and the polls in the last few days, and the narrowing in the couple of Newspolls before that fits with my hypothesis of a lag of about 10 days between daily political events and it showing up in the poll. So this latest Newspoll increase relates to the Abbott stuffups, not to the interest rate increases in the last week. The interest rate increases will show up next week.
Of course as we approach the election the lags should reduce as more people start paying more attention.
HAHAHAHAHA I had the same thought when I wrote that sentence, but I actually meant orang-utans, cos of Howard suring up the Orang-utan vote.
No way! Howard locked up the Orang-utan vote with a vintage piece of wedge politics:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pm-in-fight-for-planet-of-the-apes/2007/11/11/1194766508069.html
My guess is Labor will spend a decade future proofing the economy via clean power and water infrastructure, and then promptly lose an election in a landslide to a politically labotomised Alex Hawke.
Blachlight, simians have feelings too. They are not all Young Liberals.
Pi probably at 4 at about now 5 will be on election night if we lose.
I am pissed off about now you guys im seriously
But u never know ‘unca howie’ could pull off a miracle ‘here’s hoping’.
Newspoll PDF
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
This is off topic but I see this word many times on this blog and it appears today on the SMH letters page. It is the word corflute. The definition is as follows:
Corflute ® is a brand name of a substrate often used for commercial signage or packaging applications and made exclusively by Corex Plastics Australia Pty Ltd. Although Corflute ® is an extruded plastic, its structure is very similar to corrugated cardboard. Because it is not adversely affected by water, oil or many solvents, it can be used for many outdoor applications.
I am somewhat confused as to why people in political blogs (and the msm) decide to use such a little known brand word, maybe someone here can explain this.
Here’s the poll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
VoterBoy, exactly. You read that final paragraph, below it are the words Foreign Minister and you think, even after 11 years, surely this cannot be true?
Please stop saying “unca howie”, it makes you sound like Dr Strangelove:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0
“Mein Fuhrer! I can walk!”
No the campaign song tomorrow will be ‘you gotta have faith’ lol!
You do if you are a Tory and see the opposition with a 12 bounce in primary vote since 2004 lol!
This poll is probably going to knock the wind out of the Coalition campaign.
Unless they get some serious traction from the education policies announced tomorrow (or later today) and/or Labor stuffs up something in the campaign launch, this election is now O-V-E-R!!!
Glen, don’t you think that the 4% for the do nothing nationals is a bit high?
LTEP-the Rat King hasnt got anything left except to throw irresponsbile amounts of mony to the electorate now. The private school rebate is a classic wedge but Rudd is not the class warrior that Latham was. Rudd is just as likely to say me-too or modify his education rebate. Stuff like this though destroys Howards claim to be a competent economic manager. He is totally reckless but his fans in the Tory press never take him to task about it. Andrew Charltons piece in the Sunday Age about how the interest rate argue is all upside down hit the nail on the head.
# 114 ShowsOn Says: November 12th, 2007 at 12:55 am
My guess is Labor will spend seven years sorting out education at all levels, won’t make any noticeable change to IR bar implementing their policy. They’ll make an admirable start on environmental matters, but won’t be able to distance themselves from the manufacturing industry, and will eventually be overtaken by voter-sentiment wanting all green technologies to be adopted faster.
Thus losing the 2020 election to the greens.
Shanahan is a dill. We all know it. He probably does too. But he won’t change because his silly articles get lots of attention. Sure, he gets mostly abuse and mockery from his readers, but as long as people keep reading his articles, whether on paper or online, The Australian gets advertising revenue.
Shanahan is bad for credibility but good for business, at least in the short term.
From what I hear, it seems that Caroline Overington has cottoned on to Shanahan’s tricks and is doing the same with warped articles filled with loads of pro-Howard spin. She gets a lot of negative attention too, but as long as the readers come in droves, it amounts to extra advertising revenue for old Murdoch.
Glen,
You’re game, I’ll give you that. If my team was consistently 10 points down in the polls, I’d be hiding in the hills outside Wagga.
Glen,
half a league, half a league, half a league onward
- is that what you had in mind?
Or what general whatsisname (Bosquet) said subsequently:
‘C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre’
Which is not to over-glamourise the dear leader. Just trying to keep the military metaphors going.
I have to admit I’m worried about Howard’s housing affordability pledge due next week. That is something that could get traction in the last days of the campaign and I’m not sure what Labor could do to counteract it.
Maybe Labor should save a major policy announcement for early next week (or is that an unnecessary risk?)
Have to love the bias from Sky news. The Coalition have taken a ’slight hit’ down 2% to 55/45. ‘Slight’ my ass.
The good thing for Labor is there is still a lot of upside in the numbers. This newspoll has Labor sitting on its trend benchmark, but the latest interest rate rise has still to be properly reflected in voter opinion. And the undecideds have not yet really begun to focus. When these factors kick in, Labor’s vote will likely firm another couple of points.
Guido@16 “[tongue in cheek]Forget about Newspoll. Kevin Rudd is going to Rove next week. He will have to answer the question whom he would turn gay for.”
If his advisors don’t tell him George Clooney they must be sacked.
I hope you have Shannon Noll singing some stupid song.
He’s already said he is voting for the Agrarian Socialist Party of Australia.
That is the sick joke about WorkChoices, we have bloody 15 consecutive quarters of economic growth, and Howard says the I.R. system needs to be changed!
What an economic moron.
If the electorate keeps getting greener then this will just keep Labor in power on preferences a la 1990. I can’t see voters thinking the Coalition will do better on environmental issues, if they did they’d lead that issue now, but they don’t.
# 131 Swing Lowe Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:00 am
Err… they have a major campaign launch on Wednesday.
Well steve, maybe they got back the youth vote with that 4% figure, what with Vaile on a skateboard and wearing his hat backwards.
Labor will just me-too it Swing Lowe if its a good policy, why not they’ve done it every other time and they then got the bloody credit for it lol!
Rudd will give every orangutan a laptop.
Given Howard’s pathetic bleatings over the course of this election, I’d advise the Liberals to choose as their campaign song “Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?”
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=pmQVWH9u8Xo
John can be Jon Moss. This is so Peter can be Boy George, the man he shafted and dumped.
Swing Lowe – it’d have to have pull like a Massey to get any traction on this corpse.
Those guys are dessicated. Stuffed. Kaput.
Yes, that is hubris. I wear it with pride.
Swing Lowe,
Absolutely nothing the Liberals do from here will make the slightest difference. In fact it’s probably been like that for months. As a refresher, consider the article Hugh Mackay wrote the day after the 2004 election:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/10/1097346697099.html?from=storylhs
Brilliant article, especially this bit:
Don’t hold your breath, but one day it will occur to political party strategists that elections are rarely won or lost during election campaigns. The journalists, commentators and spin doctors who have been obsessing about the fine details of the past six weeks simply need to get out more: voters do not change their minds, moment by moment, in response to the thrust and parry of an election campaign; they make quiet judgements in the months – or even years – that precede it.
In fact, the worst time to try to predict an election result is during the sound and fury of a campaign. The TV debate, so comprehensively “won” by Mark Latham? Irrelevant. This or that chance remark or gesture, or a particularly “telling blow” delivered in a policy speech? Irrelevant. A Labor backbencher questioning the fairness of the ALP’s tax proposals? Irrelevant. The millions of dollars squandered on raucous, negative TV commercials? Irrelevant. (If you doubt that, ask any commercial advertiser who understands the role of advertising.)
Thank you linesmen, thank you ball boys
The thing about housing affordability though is that there are limits to what he can do unless he going to offer to build people their houses. Doubling the grant? release more land? Stamp duty is a state issue so theres no much joy there. A real solution would be to build more affordable public housing but no one talks about that these days.
Re tax rebates for private school fees –
Private school fees are totally unregulated. At least the private health funds have to go through an annual charade before the the Mad Monk ticks off another increase well above CPI.
Tax rebates for private school fees will allow the schools to hike their fees to outrageous levels.
The ATO will be spitting chips because they will have to find a massive increase in assessing capacity. They may have to switch staff from compliance.
The Head of Treasury will not be pleased (probably, like the $10b Murray-Darling package, not even consulted).
And the RBA can strap itself in for for a long series of interest rate increases.
The Rodent won’t retire, he will cut and run.
Newspoll says the uncommitted vote is down to 3%. It was still 6% two weeks ago.
Well what a waste of time the DT poll was…
“The poll of more than 200 Bennelong voters shows just a single vote separating Mr Howard and star ALP candidate Maxine McKew, however underlying factors point to a push away from the Prime Minister. Mr Howard was the pick of 87 voters, while Ms McKew is backed by 86 – a razor-thin 50.2 to 49.8 per cent.”
131 His housing affordability bribe will be lost in the deceit and subsequent questioning of where are the nuclear power plants are going. Like workchoices it is what the Liberal Party don’t want to discuss where most of the damage is done. What they announce nobody will buy.
I think it would be better if every laptop had an orangutan. God knows, i need one!
Shanahan and company have cost News Ltd at least one subscription – mine. I’m paying good money for utter nonsense.
Pi,
I know they have their campaign launch on Wednesday.
What I’m saying is that if Howard saves up his housing affordability policies for early next week, should Labor hold back one of their major policy announcements until then so as to deny Howard’s plan any media oxygen?
As I said before, it could be an unnecessary risk given the polls (I keep going back to the Latham forestry policy)
DT poll link
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22741237-5013922,00.html
“However more significantly, the Liberal party is attracting only one in five swinging or first-time voters in the electorate. The other 80 per cent are all going to Labor.
If those undecided votes flow along similar lines Labor would win the seat with more than 54 per cent of the vote.”
Keep the chin up Glen. It makes a better target for a boot!
Sorry, that was mean but its the first thing that springs to mind.
I really think that what the libs, and democracy in Australia needs, is for the Rattus Crew to take a really good kicking at this election. They need to have a situation where the hard right of the party is cleaned out and discredited, and that means JWH losing his seat as well as a lot of the current front bench.
The state branches will have an easier time of it once the feds are out of power and in disarray. They will have a focus again. Cant have Labor in power everywhere they will shout. I would think that at the next round of state elections the libs should win something if they can rebuild for a year or two and find some decent fronts people from somewhere.
The bloodletting after this election on the right of politics will be monumental. For the politics as bloodsport fraternity it will be something not to miss. I suspect that the best place to follow it will be the blogoshpere rather than the MSM as insiders will likely use it to leak stuff and maybe vent a bit in unattributable fashion.
I particularly look foreword to an analysis of “why they lost”, with appropriate stats and graphs from someone like Possum, but i wonder if either art will really learn from it.
“And troublingly for the Government, WorkChoices was named as a major issue more times than any other, including the economy and the environment.
WorkChoices was raised as a top issue by 17 per cent of voters. Less than 2 per cent of these were voting for the Liberals.
By contrast one in four Labor voters said it was the primary reason they were voting for the ALP, many of whom said they were voting Labor for the first time, on this issue alone. This even included card-carrying members of the Liberal Party.”
Dario – well, that rocked us to the socks. MoE on 200 is 6.9%. They shouldn’t have bothered, really.
A monkey has clearly been driving Dolly’s desktop.
Paisano – yes, and it’s name is Alex
“119
zedder Says:
stuff about corflutes”
coming from an alp background, its the word that is used on campaigns and planning. I assume the liberals are the same and thus the word corflute spreads.
CL de Footscray Says: “I think it would be better if every laptop had an orangutan. God knows, i need one!”
Thanks for that CL! Just woke the wife up laughing out loud on this one – no more, no more!
that Lord Downer article leaves me dumbfounded…if you didn’t know the little knobjockey better you would swear it was satire.
I thought this bunch of cretins would implode on the way out but their performance ever since the attempted sinking of Rattus at apec has been amazing.
George – if you had an orangutan, it could wake up the wife for you!
150 Swing Lowe Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:07 am
It’s clear you’re not one of the people that understands this election is already over. It was over six months ago. Nothing is going to change peoples minds, and if Rudd comes out with even a mildly similar policy (and there are better ways of handling education than ‘rebates’) then the libs big money spend will be all but wasted. Not only that, but it’ll be inflationary, and the ALP will be ALL over it.
The libs new education policy only really helps people pay for private schools. It’s clear they’ve completely given up on marginals, and are now targeting ALL of their policies on their core constituents to try and stave off the landslide.
From Labor, I’m semi-expecting HECS like policies for TAFE institutions. Skills development, and non-inflationary. Helping working-class people get good jobs. Exactly the type of thing that will be fantastic for our country.
The election is all over bar the counting.
Perhaps Kevin should say he’d go gay for an orangutan.
Yeah, pretty pathetic in the end. Still, the ‘issues’ stats raised are yet more proof (despite MSM & Liberal denials) that WorkChoices is THE factor. 80% of new voters voting Labor. That’s gotta hurt.
Imacca with respect i don’t think having less than 50 MPs will stop the extreme right (who are a minority of our party) do you know why because the wet liberals will lose their seats and the hard right will keep theirs (on bigger margins) how will this do us any favours?
I could take a loss but only on 5 preconditions we had about 65 seats, Howie wins his seat, Malcolm wins his seat, Brough wins his seat and Keenan wins Stirling, so long as all these happened i would accept a loss on the chin.
If not ill be saying alot of Serenity Nows i can tell you!
Oz pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
At 55-45 Howard obviously has Rudd right where he wants him! Forget the polls, look at the faces of the Tories, listen to the strain in their voices. They have had it and even senior members of the PP know it. So many of them have been totally invisible on the campaign trail. Where has Julie Bishop been? Ruddock, Andrews? Unsighted, I reckon many of them are running dead!
GLENN MILNE has finally done it! A COMPLETE Costello press release passed off as an opinion article!:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740400-7583,00.html
CL de Footscray Says: “George – if you had an orangutan, it could wake up the wife for you!”
F*k – LOL
If the ALP goes for HECS reductions they will have the high moral ground on education and STILL make the rat’s constituents happy. Tax dedutions for private school fees is a disgrace, to be blune. But it probably is a firewall-friendly strategy.
They are SOOOOOO ro@ted.
Now, who has the best advice on Aussie bubbly? We are of modest means here at Chateau Footscray, so suggestions for budget-ish bubbly of high quality would be welcome …
VoterBoy – an orangutan with a laptop and no HECS debt …
ShowsOn,
That article from Milne is a joke. Most of the negative news from the US is coming out of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, to which Australia has limited exposure.
There’s also the fact that the US is usually negatively affected by rising commodity prices, whilst the opposite is true in Australia.
Milne has truly become a joke with this one (not that he wasn’t one before)…
CL de Footscray Says: “Now, who has the best advice on Aussie bubbly? We are of modest means here at Chateau Footscray, so suggestions for budget-ish bubbly of high quality would be welcome …”
If you want French bubbly, I can guarantee this to be the most amazingly good stuff (technically not champagne) for the price $20 a bottle.
https://www.nicks.com.au/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductId=478820
I think he is going to retire now. He has been working up to using an ENTIRE Costello press release – now that he has done it he has no journalistic goals left to pursue.
168 from Milne [ Look up. That sound you hear may just be the sky falling. The question on November 24 for Australia is who will be there to catch it?]
A one man scare campaign.
Milne using his best chicken-little impersonation.
He’s even quoting him.
That Milne is a character. Apparently the sky IS falling:
‘The Treasurer was at it again on Friday: “Well, I have been warning about the fallout from the US sub-prime,” he told reporters.
“(The crisis) is not over. You have seen in the last couple of weeks the head of Merrill Lynch lose his job, you have seen the head of Citigroup, the world’s largest financial institution, lose his job. ‘
And come Saturday week, his mate Tip will lose HIS job.
Bring it on, please!
George, the way you’ve committed yourself to the cause and to this blog lately. if you had an orangutan, it would be your wife waking it up, not the other way around.! LOL
Ta George, will check it out!
Well CL we know regardless he’ll be having one too many champers on election night with Hendo and Shanahan oh and don’t forget Acker lol!
Fulvio Sammut Says: “George, the way you’ve committed yourself to the cause and to this blog lately. if you had an orangutan, it would be your wife waking it up, not the other way around.! LOL”
You’re not wrong their! LOL. I run an online business that caters mainly to the states, so I’m never 1 meter away from an internet connection… it also helps that I’m an insomniac
3-4 hours of sleep per night does me fine.
Glen, having sufferd numerous defeats (electoral and otherwise) over the years, I can assure you that a nice magnum of the bubbly usually takes the pain away for a minute or two. But rum is quicker.
“Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin: THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the choice as the better economic manager.”
How does he do it…. WEEK AFTER WEEK? HOW?!
Can you imagine being in this guys lounge room on election night?? It would go something like this:
“Howard has lost 10 seats, but he’s catching up…. okay he’s 20 seats down now, but more Australians trust him on Security issues…. okay he’s down 30 seats, but he may win it in the Labor marginals, thats where the real battle is…. oh wait, down 40 seats, but more Australians trust Howard to run the Australian economy…..”
I always thought Shanahan was drunk all the time – it would explain his writing.
Actually, Glen, if you want to get over the pain quickly, have 2 shots of tequila in a row and then have the lemon – effective without the awful aftertaste…
That is true CL, that is true remember the motto.
“Candy is dandy but liquor is quicker” lol
- Willy Wonka (who would be using AWAs for the umpa lumpas) so he has to be a Tory lol!
I’m sorry, I thought the government was marching towards poll parity?
Did I miss something?
Here’s an amusing pastime…
1. Go through the Newspoll PDF and input the past two week’s 2pp into Anthony Green’s calculator. Go to the full calculator.
2. Note those seats who shift from Liberal to Labor as the numbers bounce around. (For example, last week the numbers were 53/47. Going to 55/45 adds Blair, LaTrobe, Herbert, Kalgoorlie, Paterson, McEwan, Cowper, Longman, Sturt, Robertson, Petrie. Gippsland’s on a knife-edge, but that’s just being greedy, so we’ll leave it where it is.)
3. Ring up the sitting MP, and complain very loudly that if that selfish idiot Howard had called the election for last week, before the rates rise, the MP in question might still be likely to have a job in a fortnight.
4. Repeat as necessary. Especially for the Member for Sturt.
Hmm.. rum, buggery and the lash.. tis a good party ya know..
OK, I’ve just worked it out. This is a mass hallucination, right? All that insane stuff from Milne, Shammers, Albrechtson, Howard of the Apes, Dolly – it can’t be true, right? Someone’s been putting Bindis in the water!
Does it get better than this? Tell me truthfully, now.
And yes, if Newspoll be the food of pseph, poll on …
More gold from News Ltd (Bennelong):
“In keeping with the philosophy of the Truck of Truth, we asked: Who are you voting for and why?”
?Que. No need to wonder where the Batmobile of Bullshit is parked.
Keeping Newspoll for Labor ‘as high as possible’.
Posting from different address, William, momentarily.
Only at 7pm on November 24, CL.
Batmobile of Bullshit is the best of the night, IMHO.
CL de Footscray Says: “Howard of the Apes”
You’re killin’ me here! That one deserves abit of Photoshoping with the Planet of the Apes poster….
Well done Glen, you’ve hit stage 3, bargaining.
That’s better then Shanahan’s – Stage 1 – denial.
It’ll better prepare you for what is to come
What’s the point of Howard winning his seat if the Libs lose?
He’ll step down right away, and Maxine will win the by-election.
I agree Glen, that if its only the hard right that keeps its seats then the libs are up the smelly creek and lost for good. But i think they will have more than 50 seats after Nov 24th.
You will know if the libs are going to completely self destruct if they put Bishop in as leader. The only way she will do them any good is if they take the time to groom and develop her without stabbing her in the back as they usually do to women in their senior ranks. Oh, and do some work on the rabbit in headlights expression she gets when fronting a camera.
I think they need Dolly Downer as leader at first since he doesn’t have any credibility anyway, and so has nothing to lose be being front man for the humiliation that will be the new parliamentary session.
As to your conditions, sorry mate i think you in for a bad night.
I reckon the Rattus will lose his seat.
Brough i think is gone, and ALP will win in Stirling.
Malcom Turnbull will win though, as the ALP candidate is crap.
George, I was thinking more of the Tarzan theme. But Ministry of the Apes would work for me!
All the last sets of polls showed the Liberal party losing primary votes. This Newspoll creates a trend. The last three newspoll primary votes for the Liberal party: 38,37,36
Anyone here think that the Ruddster will do for Howard what Hawkey did for Malcolm after 83, and find him a responsible official position that draws on his talents?
And, if so, what might it be?
While on the subject of Milne has any one checked out any decent institutions where he can go for therapy after the Libs ‘crash ‘n burn’ on Sat night 24th November. He will need to booked in as early as possible to start treatment!
The breakdown when one compromises their professional objectivity to become Rupert’s ’sock puppet’ only to be used up & thrown on the heap must be devastating. F#$@ it just book the whole editorial staff of The OZ except for George M. for long term group therapy to work thru their denial.
It would be kind of funny if they get less than 37.4, which is what Latham got in 2004.
VoterBoy @ 200
Absolutely not.
Personally I liked the suggestion that was put up a while back.
Ambassador to Iraq.
…although Howard is welcome to continue his good work in saving endangered Orangutans, no mockery intended.
“204
Pathological Logic Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 1:38 am
Personally I liked the suggestion that was put up a while back.
Ambassador to Iraq.”
Good one. But – with or without the Kevlar vest?
(Which puts me in mind of a new slogan – Kevlar07)
Jeez. I can’t keep up with you people, you have been writing faster than I have been able to read.
I haven’t seen any comment on the ad put out by the nurses. I think it is the most brilliant electoral ad I have ever seen. If I’ve missed someones comment, I apologise.
VoterBoy, I’m still barracking for rattus to get Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports. there are several good reasons for this: (i) he would have to be in England, which is excellent for all of us living here (but, I concede, stressful for you over there); (ii) he gets to look like a total dork in a weird hat; (iii) he can pretend he’s RG menzies, and go mad just that little bit quicker; and (iv) QE2 can work out exactly why she hates him, and refuse to give him even a tiny little knighthood, which would really shit Hyacinth.
Rudd could not trust Howard who has a reputation for white-anting from the day he came an MP. As ambassador somewhere etc…Howard would be slagging off at Rudd behind his back.
A skillset match for the outgoing?
http://www.theporkauthority.com/
i expect the libs to start up the “wall to wall labor governments” scare campaign.
its one thing that might work..
POLL: HOWARD NOW LOSING SUPPORT AMONG OVER 50s.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bmichelle-grattanb/2007/11/11/1194766508063.html
“Contrary to what you might expect, Zoo isn’t devoted to orang-utans and the like. It is a publication for men and has commissioned — as you would — a Galaxy poll on whether people would prefer to see John Howard or Kevin Rudd naked.
Hurtfully, if unsurprisingly, only 16 per cent said they wanted to see the PM undressed; 34 per cent nominated Rudd. The PM did have a (narrow) lead among gays, though not with the over-50s.”
David Flint is inline for that, and since he’ll die sooner, Rodent will have to wait.
ShowsOn – Except no-one in their right mind would put Flint in charge of anything, even if it’s just a stupid hat.
Ok now time for some in-depth analysis:
Why do gay men prefer Howard over Rudd? Seriously I’m stumped (and likely showing my ignorance of some key fact)
Matt – probably MoE.
Roy & H.G. have referred to David Flint as Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports for about the last 3 years.
Cinque Ports? I doubt it. The present incumbent is a youngish man, and also questioned the legality of the Iraq War.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Boyce%2C_Baron_Boyce
(True, I googled it … but is that such a crime?)
ShowsOn – Ah, well, I didn’t realise it was in their gift. I guess he has all the attributes excpet a brain, which come to think of it is really not necessary.
Tip: naked gay orangutans (with laptops) on The Chaser this week…
Mike @ 207
Yes, the number of post here is swelling to staggering proportions.
I agree with the nurses ad, it’s particularly good.
220 – demanding HECS reductions?
“215
Matt Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 1:45 am
Ok now time for some in-depth analysis:
Why do gay men prefer Howard over Rudd? Seriously I’m stumped (and likely showing my ignorance of some key fact).”
Sugar Daddy syndrome, I’d guess. And the fact he looks great in leather.
Roy & H.G. generally don’t let facts get in the way of their comedy.
EXACTLY! Now you understand why they gave him the title!
Howard’s education fight-back:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-education-fightback/2007/11/11/1194766508060.html
Y-A-W-N
From The Australian:
“Liberal sources confirmed last night Mr Howard would announce 10,000 weeks of paid respite care for people needing around-the-clock care, giving their carers the opportunity to take long breaks. He will also promise to fund 120,000 days’ worth of daycare for people not requiring full-time assistance.”
Is that total time this is funded for??? Thats 192 Years of paid respite and 328 Years of daycare… has Howard officially lost it?
I doubt Labor would do it, but if Rudd got up at the campaign launch and said every HECS debt will be reduced by 25% on January 1st 2008 if Labor is elected they would be almost universally praised.
VoterBoy @ 223
Thanks for that image.
Night all.
VoterBoy – yes, they seem to have started to appoint a higher grade of chap to that gig these days. I doubt that Howard (or Flint’s) experience quite matches the three submarines, the destroyer, the fleets and the fact that he can tell Port from Starboard.
Oh well, we can dream can’t we?
Maybe he could be Ambassador to Burkina Faso?
OK, this is ridiculous.
Bon nuit!
Nah, Rudd should pass legislation forcing Howard to be Australia’s ambassador to Iraq.
Howard should run for President of whatever retirement condo he ends up at on Nov 25.
‘a source told The Age. “It will blow Rudd out of the water.” ‘
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Policy in the making …just add laptop!
http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/staticfiles/NGS/Shared/StaticFiles/animals/images/1024/orangutan-traveling-forest.jpg
Sounds like the source was Alexander Downer.
“Garrett heckled at climate change march”
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071110/2/14w8i.html
(sorry i’m 5 hours behind) well at least he had the balls to front up.
Howard and Bush could share a flat in downtown Baghdad
He handled it pretty well I thought. Just said he was happy to be there and kept smiling. He’s not going to get caught out again. Can’t see him in that portfolio after the election though.
Home again. I am so encouraged, again.
It is no way as difficult for those who face up to their elections, with extreme courage, in other countries, but I am reminded of long, peaceful lines.
Apprehensive, yes. Of retaliation, no. . Howard, winning, yes.
Baseball bats, no. Softly does it.
Ready and waiting.
Waiting.
‘…the sub-prime spectre stalked, the Prime Minister acknowledged mistakes…’
wrote the poison dwarf; & laughing Phil owk as ‘the hurry curry plotter ‘ of oz leapt to the organ…did anyone catch the creep on sky ?
Voter Boy, Krazy Karole-rate rise good for pm- should jump on this rang a tang thingy what with the price of pacific nanny’s ‘n all…
A convergence of policies to form a government of national salvatin…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18064686/
Follow threads 169, 170 ,171 & so on to get the ‘jist’
Zedder, Jimmy,
Corflutes refer to the double sided posters which you see outside campaign offices, and around the fences and entrances to polling booths.
On the previous thread, there was a discussion about wearing party badges or t-shirts inside the booth when voting. The rule, which has certainly applied in the past, is that this is interpreted as an attempt to influence voters which is not permissible within the polling place, or in its immediate vicinity (which is why those handing out htv recommendations aren’t permitted to stand at the doorway to the hall). Alert polling officials would ask for badges to be removed, t-shirts to be covered.
Mike @ 207
Yes, the number of posts here is swelling to staggering proportions.
Fantastic to have a louder voice.
Re earlier thread, D Day minus 13, which draws our attention to those who would attack bloggers. Sam Maiden’s unutterable article, sure, but the other.
Thank you, William, especially for bringing Club Bloggery to attention. A well written piece.
The mere fact that Sam Maiden has found it necessary to criticise bloggers, demonstrates the impact such as William and respondents are having.
Is truly illustrative of the fear felt by the MSM, or the owner.
The said Maiden fills in on SA local radio in Tony Wright’s spot, on occasion.
Cannot help but feel she was cheering for JWH and Co. Along with TW, not to mention Matt and Dave.
The MSM keeps legitimising the blogosphere by complaining about it – thanks. In another 3 years it will be a fully developed world.
Off topic, but just saw our own Adam Carr on this program on SBS:
On topic link – it does cover the Political ramifications of the isse and it did show a bit of the “It’s Time” jingle.
Bleak’s take on Howard of the Apes:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Frank at 245.
Is that viewable again, somehow?
I am interested in general and in particular in the topic. The generality being friends, the particular being a nephew who ‘came out’ to me some few years ago.
I had thought the young man may be. It was a very emotional experience, he did not want to tell his dad, and we were at his dad’s (re) marriage.
All worked out well, in its course, and once his father, my brother, knew of it, as he himself expressed and acted, had no difficulty at all.
Sadly, of course, the general tough situation for anyone who is not ‘mainstream’, in whatever way, seems to lie in how they are to say it. And how it is to be received.
They did mention during the closing credits that the DVD is available from Dymocks.
BTW, they showed footage of Heffalump slandering JUstice Kirkby in the Senate and El Rodente defending him etc.
Oh an John Faulkner rally got stuck into him as well
Thanks, Frank. Sounds even more excellent.
Take a look at this ad:
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/detail/20071109_LivermoreTakesRockhamptonforGranted.php
Is Capricornia in the mix too?
Is that gonna swing some votes? How desperate can the Liberals get!
Re Livermore: In the recent US Congressional Elections, there was an infamous Republican attack ad on a Democrat whose staff misdialled a number and accidentally connected to a chat site for a nano-second.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=R4m0UzylRvc
Clearly the ‘me-tooers’ of Lib HQ really loved the phone idea, but this was the best they could scrape up. Still, full points for trying.
And on the same theme, here’s where the Liberals are getting their new colour scheme…
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=aI_jr1u_4EE
Ah, Loughnane, you’ve done it again. Plagiarising a failed campaign – now *that’s* what I like to see!
Now we know why the betting markets were moving.
This is a classic from Shanahan
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
As big as expected? I thought the rate rise was to the govts advantage?
And apparently, the election will be about who is the best economic manager – the AEC should be busily reprinting those voting cards and I hear they are recalling parliament for a quick constitutional change!
As I’ve been saying for months, it’s been 55:45 all year. Nothing has changed. Only politics junkies watch every word of the campaign. Real people get on with their lives. This election was decided in May when the Budget failed to lift the Government.
The tragic Shanahan is deserving of our pity. He has to go through the motions, like Monty Python’s black knight (”It’s only a flesh wound”). Much more amusing is the embittered Glen Milne, denied his chance to become PM Costello’s press secretary.
The clear parallel here is Alan Ramsey who was similarly denied with Bill Hayden in 1983. He’s never gotten over it. Neither will Milne.
253 S quotes Shanahan:
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
Not as great as expected? Yet according to the Newspoll, and confirmed by Shanahan, the impact has been a 2ppt fall in the Coalition primary vote, a 2ppt fall in the Coalition two-party preferred vote, a 3ppt fall in Howard’s satisfaction rating, a 2ppt rise in Howard’s dissatifaction rating, a 3ppt fall in Howard as preferred PM (and remember that in all of these categories, the Coalition/Howard are already seriously behind Labor/Rudd), and a 2ppt fall in those voters who think Howard is better able to manage the economy.
On every single category, Howard has fallen behind. Roughly translated into seats, Labor will have 92 to the Coalition’s 56. And that is, for what it’s worth a difference of 10 since the previous poll, taken the week before the rate rise.
That’s a swing delivering 10 extra seats for Labor, and 10 fewer for the Coalition, which Dennis Shanahan singularly dismisses as “not as great as expected”.
Could someone please ask Dennis: Having looked at these numbers, and recognising the Coalition’s already seriously low base, what sort of swing would you have described as “great” or “expected”? 5ppt? 10? 15?
Thats a good question. Was this poll conducted before or after the Howard ape advert?
We have to consider the ape vote!!! Over to you Shanahan. I know you’ll find the words.
Morning All! Would someone plse post the link to the nurses ad. Thanks
re Shanahan
It’s the workplace stupid!!
Interest rates for orangutans will always be lower under a Coalition government?
What a lovely set of numbers to wake up to this morning. Shanners as usual spins the poll for the government on the prefered economic manager line. You got to give it to him. He’s going to go down with the ship. I wonder if he’s going to cry on election night?
People like Glen are going to be saying on November 25 “just you wait and see, the polls will come back, Howard can finally make it!!”
This is the point of no return Glen/Isabella/Tabitha/ESJ. Drop the hate and embrace Kevin. You can still save some dignity.
55-45. 48 primary?
That’ll do pig. That’ll do.
The Lib’s are panicking!!! Ads are carpeting the morning shows. The kids watching cartoons are getting the union boogey man in the ads. Might scare them, but i dont think they are the best demographic to target.
Yes TofK, I was surprised how many Liberal Party ads I’ve seen lately. They’re definately far outnumbering the ALP ones. Staying with my politically disinterested sister who just mutes them when they come on.
She thought the Julia Gillard one in her evil sunnies was pretty funny though.
Morning tragics. Lovely set of figures to wake up to. I’m still waiting for the post-budget bounce before we can even have the narrowing. Howard might be right that the people aren’t ‘angry’, but they may just switched off from the government earlier this year.
I find them very B grade. I reckon the interest rate fear one is going to blow back in their face. This was their attack line last election, while promising to keep interest rates at record lows. All they serve to do is make people angry.
The positive ads are pretty bad, in that they dont cut through, just a few policies and not a mention from Howard or Costello.
Shanahan concede? He is waiting for Wenck.
Anyway there will be a narrowing to election day, as Keating narrowed towards Howard in 1996
it will mean little
Also the last minute support the conservatives always get will be cancelled out by the ‘mood for change’ and ‘give Kev a go’ which is overripe in the electorate.
The key poll is preferred PM which Kev wins comfy
it’s too late baby …now it’s too late….
Costello on AM: “very tight contest”
Re Shamawank
Also in 1996 Keating had a big lead over Howard in who could manage the economy.
Howard was seen as a buffoon….dont you remember? Howard is reverting back to the natural order of things, dust to dust buffooon to bufffooon, chimp to orangutan…
I Know we are trying to be objective here, so could everyone look away for a moment.
YAAAAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO,
Thank-you.
Oh on a serious note, Newspoll always underestimate the Green vote, in the last 3 polls they have gone 4, 5, 6 .All these votes will go to the ALP and the ALP primary has increased. Clearly the 53-47 thing was a statistical outliner which was probably 53.49999999 – 46.50000001 and at the end of MOE.
The implications for the Senate are interesting as this is really looking like locking in a unprecedented shift in the balance of power,. To state the obvious this is BIG
just dont tell shana’s that Gerr, he thinks its economic management. Doesnt the government realiase that, if the economy is front and centre, then so is WorkChoices? They are running the campaign by plugging the very policy that people want them out for.
Shanahan, I feel, has backed off a bit in his propaganda spiel today. He has searched the entrails of Newspoll for a gem but hasn’t found much to boost his morale. Maybe next week, he’ll admit the Libs are stuffed.
Costello on AM: on the question of can they win, “In key battleground seats, as the choice gets clearer…”
Loser.
Dario,
It’s obvious that Sky News just does a cursory rewrite of The Australian and its “journalists” do not bother to do any analysis.
Sky had almost the same words at the Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin story that said: THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspol.”
On the point you mention, Shanahan and Franklin said: “According to the Newspoll survey, Coalition support has slipped slightly and satisfaction with Mr Howard has dropped after the rate rise, while Labor has retained its election-winning lead.”
The Broadcasting Tribunal should look at the Sky licence. It should not be allowed to pass of The Australian propaganda in its news programs.
Labor has not really started its advertising blitz yet. So any big policies or dirty tricks Howard might be holding till the final week will be neutralised by Labor’s ads. Also expect to see the ACTU step up their campaign as the big day draws nearer.
They should force the ABC’s editorial guidelines on the commercial news channels. That would shut them up/down.
I saw quite a few Labor ads last night on TV in Sydney.
Rudd has got the advantage: if Rodent announces something supposedly earth shatteringly wonderful, Kev can duplicate it in his launch on Wednesday.
I think Rudd will announce something on reducing the HECS burden.
Shamahan and the MSM can keep propping up Howard all they want, the reality is that he’s 10 points behind, where you don’t want to be with 2 weeks to go.
Rudd could then just counter it by doing one of his ánti-ads’. Talk about being able to cooperate with the states (rather than Howard’s confrontational approach) to improve health, roads, education etc.
Peter Hartcher blasts Howard:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-gun-may-explode-in-his-face/2007/11/11/1194766509984.html
I’m seeing some ACTU ads this morning too
My theory on how undecided votes go when their mind is made up is: They normally break 2 to 1 in favour of the trend. I am suggesting that because the poll margin is greater in this instance they will break at a much higher rate, maybe 3 to 1 or 4 to 1. The answer will be seen in the final polls and if they have underestimated the vote.
CL de F sez…”Howard will promise Nirvana. But it won’t matter a damn.”
But wait, there’s more! Much more!
El Rodente’s opening remards at today’s launch:
“My Fellow Australians….here……take my wife!”
Not so implausible really, in the last thirty years he’s sold everybody else out for personal aggrandisement.
How many Lib pollies will be left on the 25th for Shanahack to get a job with?
# 227 ShowsOn Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:51 am
And be universally derided for such an inflationary measure. The government doesn’t need to be pumping more money into the economy. It increases inflation, and therefore increases interest rates. That’s what’s so good about the home-saver policy. It’s non inflationary.
Good policy is making all TAFE courses available through HECS funding. It is, essentially, an interest-free loan (which the government picks up the tab for) for a long-term investment in productivity. People that couldn’t afford to do TAFE courses, would start to, only to pay back the money when they are able. Essentially, people work harder for an interest-free loan on education, which the government funds.
You get more productive people, an increased skill-set, more skilled workers, it doesn’t pump money into the economy, and mums and dads don’t have to fork out several thousand dollars a year on TAFE expenses. Win-win-win-win-win.
I wonder if the rodent has considered calling a state of emergency, therefore delaying the election for 12 months, no wonder he didn’t ge early and I bet now he is stomping around saying “I told you we should have waited until late Jan.”
Howard has finally worked it out. The voters are now focused on the economy. The only trouble is all they see is rising inflation, rising interest rates and job insecurity from workchoices.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/voters-starting-to-focus-on-economy-pm/20071112-19ht.html
John Musharaf Howard?
Another poll, lots of analyses, thousands of hours spent writing and regurgitating millions of words to say that nothing has changed. They could have simply read a few words of wisdom from Possum and saved us a lot of CO2 and methane emission.
Can you imagine the number of job applications that must be flooding into the Sydney Institute and the Institute for Public Affairs about now?
On a serious note, what will it do to the social fabric of our cities and towns when all of these nasty illiberal staffers, who have been carefully removed from the general population for the last decade, are thrust back into a mainstream world where more than half of the people prefer Kevin07 to the Rodent? Maybe we’ll need to re-open the Nauru facility to keep them ’safe’.
One good reason to vote out Howard: we’re rid of his wife too.
I’m still furious after her attack on Rudd in yesterday’s Sun Herald. Do we find Therese Rein making derogatory remarks about her husband’s opponent? Nope.
Listening to RN this morning Fran Kelly was interviewing someone about bringing people with mental health problems back into the workforce. I thought to myself, “That’s a great idea, but how many columnists can News Limited be expected to employ?”
Are there any monkeys in marginal seats? Howard has at least got the ape vote LOL
Forget our Don Bradman – the former Australian cricket captain JWH most wants to emulate now is Richie Benaud. He could always manage something to turn around a losing position – a bowling change here, a stubborn knock there. A former team mate once said – “If Richie put his hand in a bucket of sh*t, he’d pull out a diamond”.
Roll up your sleeve JWH … and dig deep.
Howard’s campaign launch is on the ABC tomorrow night at 7.30PM. Small problem – it’s up against Dancing With The Stars. I predict even higher record ratings for Channel 7 that night LOL
Seriously: it’ll be interesting to see if more people tune in to watch the Ruddster on Wednesday night.
I know: Howard resurrects Don Bradman,and wins the praise of a greatful nation.
After the Liberals launch party today there will be a narrowing! or Howard still leading in economic credibility (haha) to Rudd!
There is still some silver lining…
/sarcasm
I’m saving all my joy until the 24th/25th… (actually probably for the next 3 years, more fun that way)
289 Dave from Albury says ” what will it do to the social fabric of our cities and towns when all of these nasty illiberal staffers, who have been carefully removed from the general population for the last decade, are thrust back into a mainstream”.
Good point Dave. Perhaps Kevin should make an election promise to provide them counseling services and rehabilitation so that can be eased back into the civil society- some of them might be lured into voting for ALP.
The attack by hyacinth is just desperation of the highest degree. Does she think she has an authorative view on the economy? She is the antithesis of educated opinion! Who do you think is responsible for the huge wine bill??
Re the Libs TV ad campaign. I don’t get to see any TV in the city but from what I’ve heard most are negative (the 70% union/interest rates etc). I know a lot of the bush ads are candidate targeted and friendly.
Are there any positive Lib ads on city TV? If so, roughly what proportion?
Tony r @ 250
Hey is that an for Labor – I love it. It could be a great screen saver.
Ive seen 1 positive lib ad. Its pretty vague, if you vote lib youll vote for these policies, not a mention/image of anyone in the government! It seems that the government is a negative for the government =).
I saw the Hockey team at Crows Nest on Saturday and they had absolutely no mention of Howard – though there was an acknowledgement the candidate was, in fact, a Liberal.
They’re running the “local candidate” line.
A while back, someone was asking about the Senator Online party and what they were all about. Seems the answer is attempted fraud:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/party-founders-deceit/2007/11/11/1194766509987.html
295 re resurrecting Bradman – at the moment we don’t need him. The batting’s going fine.
I think Howard should try to conjure up Menzies rather than Bradman.
Did Samantha join us in this thread?
pi@284, HECS is not interest free mate. If only it were! I believe it is indexed to the CPI, which means in this inflation packed era, where real wages growth is being kept down by our wonderful economic managers, that hecs debt is increasing while one’s ability to pay is not.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/11/1194766506542.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Paul Sheehan seems very upset that the nation is about to vote in Rudd – that’s my only explanation for this article.
Re all the stuff about adds, its to late, the point about throwing money at advertising is this. Which party has increase its primary vote at every state and federal campaign, bar one, for the last ten years, which party has had a combined budget of about $4.98 at last count and which party is about to get the balance of power? Policies, long term message and consistency over spin?
They do suffer from a narrowing of their vote at the end of many campaigns but that is not because of the bretherin(Can’t spell it and can’t be bothered to find it), but more to do with people flurting with them then going back to their safety net. Then at the next election they do, etc etc
Rates Analyst: if the Liberals are having to campaign in Crows Nest, “that den of socialism”, Hockey must be getting the shits!
We’re a radical lot on the Lower North Shore we are…..
Hockey seemed friendly but remarkably disengaged. He was standing near me for about 20 minutes and spoke only to what appeared to be dyed-in-the-wool Liberals.
In contrast, everyone wants to say hello to Mike….
Pathological Logic Says: @141
November 12th, 2007 at 1:05 am
Path Logic’s quote from Hugh McKay is the most salient, so thanks PL.
Last Friday on Skynews Agenda (strangely a genuinely balanced program), McKay said his social research groups show a significant mood for change compared to 2004. Significantly baby boomers are returning to their idealistic 1960’s values, a prime one of which was the revolution in female equality and status (see Deputy Prime Minister Gilliard, Julia). Moreove, baby boomers are very worried about the job security and conditions of employment for their children or grandchildren.
Of course, this morning’s Skynews regular news bulletin kept up its Team Howard propaganda effort by introducing the Newspoll result as “More Work to Do. PM slips slightly in latest Poll”. Then goes with a Dorothy Dixer interview with PM in Cricket jersey (what else, we’re kicking arse on those uppity Sri Lankans, so who else would be responsible for our victory but the PM?) stressing how far ahead Team Howard is in the poll as better economic managers to meet the new challenges which have popped up in the past week since the interest rate rise.
It works with their own demographic with Skynews usual online poll showing its viewers still think Team Howard can win by 60-40%. Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your audience, but what would I know?
Whats this? Some people think Shanahan will concede next week?
Never!!!
I think on the 26th November he will use the line ‘its too close to call as there are still xxxx postal votes outstanding”.
or perhaps “Ruddslide on back of IR scare campaign”……… can’t wait
Are they going to have the Campaign Launches on free to air or just on sky?
#154
I follow online polls a bit for their interest value. The polls conducted by radio 2GB at 2gb.com are interesting for their predictably conservative results. On any political question, the results will predictably favour Liberal by at least 2 to 1.
There is only one exception I can remember: a poll about WorkChoices. The question was “Are you in favour of WorkChoices”. The results come in at around 67% in the negative . A really remarkable result at what is otherwise a site 100% reliable for conservative consensus.
http://2gb.com/index.php?option=com_yoursay&id=96&task=view&Itemid=173
When even the most rusted-on Liberals do not approve of WorkChoices, it is clear it is a lemon.
No election campaign of any sort in Berowra(Sydney’s North Shore). Just a couple of brochures in the letter box from Ruddock, zilch from Labor.
No politicians of any sort at the local shopping centre or the railway stations.
The ALP is obviously putting all its money into neighbouring Bennelong.
It might seem like a fine distinction, Dogford, but interest is not the same thing as indexation. The fact that wages don’t keep pace with inflation is a separate issue.
Indexation is the Government’s way of making sure it doesn’t get ripped off by inflation.
Well having just seen this thread, hats off to Possum. The 2% shift, if accurate, sits nicely with his recent interest rates/voting trend analysis, particulalry considering that a second rise has been telegraphed. If people are reacting to both, Possum you are pretty much spot on. Well done.
And of course, looking forward to seeing who stumps up on Lateline tonight to explain this away.
Why are the campaign launches at the end of the campaign?
It’s like David Hicks and Guantanamo Bay. First spend time in jail, then when that is nearly over, have a trial and sentence.
Hmmm econocrat, I’m guessing you are right by definition but ‘interest rates’ particularly in this election aren’t reported or set in inflation adjusted terms, is the fact that HECS is indexed retrospectively not charged interest up front?
Also dogford’s point about non-wage inflation and HECS is interesting when I still had a HECS debt my income rose very steadily so it was never an issue for me, but it is an interesting point.
Rates Analyst @ 307
Sheahan has form; he has written quite ione-sided stuff about “Lebanese gangs” after the rape cases.
On the other hand, I saw him give a very balanced intro to Jared Diamond (author of “Collapse”).
I do think he’s his own man though – not like the fools at the GG.
Because up until the official launches, party staffers are paid by the taxpayer. After the launches they are paid by the parties themselves.
PM won’t be there to keep promises: Rudd:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-wont-be-there-to-keep-promises-Rudd/2007/11/12/1194766543471.html
Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd says any policy promises John Howard makes at Monday’s coalition campaign launch are irrelevant because the prime minister won’t be around to take responsibility for them.
This stuff about the PM being unlucky to lose if the economy is going well really is nonsense. Howard’s problem (congenital defect) is that he does not, and never did, care about equity. If the cake is growing but being less equally sliced, a lot of people can still be worse off. Witness Generations X and Y. They’ll be lucky to own homes before they’re 60.
Overall wages are growing faster than CPI. This is true now and is almost always true.
However, some sectors are experiencing wage reductions due to a certain Government policy – no prizes for WORKing out which from a CHOICE of policies!!!
So while the overall argument about HECS, wages and inflation is wrong on average – there are significant minorities who will be hurting badly.
313 Are they going to have the Campaign Launches on free to air or just on sky?
No Glen the sky has fallen for the Liberals. They will have to hold the launch on a stage in Brisbane this time, a city they have avoided for 12 years and suddenly it seems important to them. It is nearer to Bribie Island too, so their Nuclear Power Policy should be given the prominence it deserves.
Glen,
I think the launches are on ABC tv. Certainly they are on Newsradio. Not sure about commercial channels.
What time is the Liberal party Wake/launch on sky?
So those free to air channels are going to play re-runs of reject US shows instead of us seeing what the Libs have to offer wtf has happened to this country if this is the case!
Burgey if the ABC are going to put on the Bill instead of the launch I’m going to but a nut i am here to tell you, even more so if they televise Labor’s launch on wednesday but not ours.
I for one want to hear Howie’s final major speech before the 24th and a probably but not inevitable defeat.
It wont be a “speech’ but another begging, pleading like on the 7.30 Report months back.
Too late for General Wenck now, the only hope is that Colonel Stauffenberg remembers his briefcase.
In answer to your question Glen, please review the previous 11 years of federal governance. This is apparently called being “relaxed and comfortable”.
Glen: Howard’s campaign launch is on Tuesday 7.30PM ABC TV.
Why isn’t it on tonight? Because they don’t want to bump off Australian Story?
And also a Four Corners program tonight at 8.30 PM on the election/swinging voters.
328 So those free to air channels are going to play re-runs of reject US shows instead of us seeing what the Libs have to offer wtf has happened to this country if this is the case!
The free to air channels have finally got their priorities right and realise the Libs have got nothing to offer outside of Nuclear power plants.
Costello is saying the Coalition is going to help the young into housing. He mentions the $7K first home buyers grant, so I’m thinking they might extend that to being $10K for under 30s. Why? Because the Coalition’s only idea are the middle class welfare, so why not throw more money out. All this would do is help increase prices.
At least Rudd is tying his plans to savings, but I think he could of gone further by tying the first home buyers grant to the savings plan like putting a percentage of the grant in to the buyer’s fund (so the fund can make money straight away). Also the grant should be spent on funding the house not used for going to fill the house with huge plasma tvs and other ‘aspirational goods’.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22742982-1702,00.html
I don’t think we’ve heard the last of Labor’s plans either, but it will be interesting to see what the Coalition does.
Sorry if someone else posted it but there’s an interesting article in the CM referrign to the fact that most voters have “tuned out” of the campaign.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22741471-5013650,00.html
After the ludicrously over-long “phoney war” and then a long six week campaign as well, who can blame them? What new policy ideas have we really seen anyway?
The same CM article also pointed out that Howard still has “$10 billion left to spend”. Unless he comes up with something extraordinary, I would say to Rudd, don’t spend it all! Put $5 billion into Health and Education, then underspend the government by leaving $5 billion or more untouched, and take the moral high ground that you are not feeding inflation as badly as Howard is.
Why would the commercial networks drop Dancing With The Stars or Australian Idol for John Howard?
Socrates: Rudd has already under-spent the government by a tune of $4b, so that would give Rudd $14b. I’m sure Rudd will still come in under the government, but I feel the Wednesday will have some big budget items in housing, education and health.
More possible bad news for Howard from the RBA today.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2087727.htm
Don’t worry, Rudd has got some major stuff to announce on Wednesday.
Labor has kept its powder dry until now!
Have you noticed howard’s mourning walks are always on the flat?
Has he got a problem walking uphill?
(of course for the next 2 weeks he’s going to have to swim uphill.)
Steve at 338.
The RBA will annonce their new forecasts for inflation over the medium term. They are already at 3%. Look for the new forecasts.
If the forecast is >3% the RBA is saying that they will need to raise rates further. 3.25 probably means that they will raise rates in Feb. 3.5% means they are considering raising rates again in December.
@335
Socrates Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Sorry if someone else posted it but there’s an interesting article in the CM referrign to the fact that most voters have “tuned out” of the campaign.
Good reminder, Soc.
Even Nick Greiner on Skynews Agenda thinks that Team Howard need a bold “beacon” policy now to break the flat line of polls all year. He said that Rudd is correctly taking a safe hands, no risk, strategy which is usually the one governments are able to run.
Of course, Greiner also suggests that Team Howard hit Labor hard on its “lack of economic credentials to keep inflation and interest rates from rising”, but don’t continue focus on past Labor Governments. A Labor Senate candidate, Arbib, rebutted by saying that this fear campaign has already been done to death, but he still reckons the result will be a cliff hanger due to the numerous huge government bribes in marginal seats which Labor can’t possibly match. So, Arbib is on the same page with a fair amount of analysis in here this past month.
Davefrom Albury@289
Talk about rats off a sinking ship – I had the misfortune recently to encounter a staffer from Count Ruddockula’s office. He outlined his imminent plans to p*ss off to Oxford to do his MBA.
And this was before the election had even been called.
The RBA statement should be up at 11:30
http://www.rba.gov.au/
“Count Ruddockula”
BAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!
Suunyboy@340, and push excrement up that hill too!
comicstriphero
Frightful. They’ll let any old riff-raff into Oxford these days …
Looks like as with everthing the Liberal Party does we run a bad last compared with the paid maternity leave of other nations. Looks like another case of too little too late.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-to-woo-mums-with-paid-leave/2007/11/10/1194724808244.html
Rudd backs Whitlam’s and Fraser’s joint letter in regards to ministerial responsibility. The article mention Rudd also hints at a far wider approach to accountability since he says:
I emailed Senator Wong earlier this year asking for her to outline Labor’s plan on restoring public accountability. It was a quite a detailed response. I certainly do hope it’s not just a hot air response.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2087887.htm
Hemingway (311) says re Sky news;
“Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your audience, but what would I know?”
Rupert might wake up one day that there are abount 20% of Australians who would sign up to pay TV in a flash if it wasn’t continuously chanelling ultra right wing claptrap.
Why should TV or radio stations broadcast the campaign launches anyway?
These days, they’re just speeches near the end of the campaign. They are not policy launches, and the parties insult the voters by having the debate before the campaign launch (I acknowledge that was Howard’s decision, but don’t hold your breath for a future Labor leader to change the practice).
The ABC, because of its election editorial guidelines, would have a bit of a problem broadcasting both launches live. They have to give equal time to both sides, and that can’t be guaranteed without cutting off the second broadcast when it reaches the length of the first. And that would bring numerous listener complaints.
Better to edit both speeches and replay them.
Personally, I couldn’t be bothered watching a launch that’s so stage-managed, before invited guests, no spontaneity, at the end of the campaign rather than at the beginning.
I think the media should offer to broadcast campaign launches if they’re early in the campaign, and contain the main promises from the parties. Otherwise, the “launches” should just be treated like any other item of campaign news, not as anything major.
Seeing The Age story that Howard is telegraphing measures on housing affordability, he (with uncharacteristic honesty) points out the problem: if house prices go down existing owners are worse off, while if they stay high, the young can’t get started. So…
Is inflation the solution? I know it is anethma to monetarists, but it can be very difficult to adjust some prices in a low inflation economy. Some things, notably wages adn fixed asset prices, are “downwards sticky”. So could some inflation alow this problem to more quickly solve itself? I’m not suggesting a return to the 70s, but is there a case that a broader inflation band than the Reserve bank’s target may be desirable? Of course, IMO other changes are also needed, liek a gradual phase out/down of negative gearing, and a gradual phase in/up of deductions for mortgagfe payments. (Labor should remind people that a lot of this mess (house prices) started after the governments quite unneccesary changes to investment tax rules around 1999/2000). Any economists care to comment?
I’ve had this exchange between Kerry O’Brien, John Stirton and Sol Lebovic rattling around in my head for the past month:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2063356.htm
(from 18 October 07)
Costello’s DNA examined?
Campaigning in Adelaide, Labor leader Kevin Rudd set the scene for the hard-hitting anti-WorkChoices campaign by declaring the laws were bad for families and a “bureaucratic nightmare”.
“Mr Costello is not believable when he says he won’t take WorkChoices further,” he said. “It’s part of Mr Costello’s DNA”.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/work-laws-to-get-worse-labor-warns/2007/11/10/1194724808250.html
Rattus,
I’m sure that’s a fair estimate, including a lot of churn offs.
After the election, I am writing Skynews to explain in non-emotive language why they are complete dills to back either side of politics. FoxNews in American can get away with it because it’s a niche market for Republican voters out of 250+ channels, including other 24 hour news alternatives in CNN, MSNBC etc. Here, as the only 24 hour channel, Skynews’ incessant cheerleading for Team Howard makes no sense, not to mention trashing the credibility of its news presenters, although some seem very delighted with being Howard spin doctors.
Using inflation as a policy tool is very dangerous.
While you are correct that the easiest way to bring house prices into line on about a 5Y horizon is to let inflatino run at 4% for a while, the problem is how do you turn it off? You could get runaway inflation which does all sorts of other damage.
The tax thing is a real problem – but very hard to change now. Some people have spent hundreds of thousands (if not millions) based on the rules being written as they are. It would be very hard to change them. You’d need to do it gradually – maybe annonce that starting in 5Y time the deductibility drops by 5% or 10% per year. Something like that.
Rattus and Hemmingway,
I agree. I’d love to see all the cricket on Sky, but I refuse to give my money to that embarrasement to journalism, even though I have it to spend.
In fact, I probably spend more time reading news websites and watching my favourite shows on DVDF rather than free to air TV now as well, so they (TV news journalists) are really killing their own market, with their focus on image and boss-appeasement, and dumbing down of both presenters and content.
Comicstriphero @353
Yep, I remember Sol’s comment, but didn’t Stirton state that he reckons for this election whatever the polls turned up after 3 weeks would be very close to the final result? I’ll be interested to hear if you recollect Stirton’s comment the way I do.
How popular is Graham Edwards In WA, enough to swing a seat
By my calculations, the Rodent has spent $240M per day this campaign, $10M every hour. Economically responsible? As John Elliot would say “Pig’s arse!” And what a surprise, there’s more to come. He would happily bankrupt our country to get re-elected.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743067-601,00.html
Rates Analyst,
Well IMO we have to pursue one or the other of those options, otherwise we are goign to see a big wage break-out no matter who is in charge. I work with a lot of bright 20 somethings who are clearly impatient with the current situation, and clearly all looking to progress their pay well above the current average by the time they are 30. In the current market they will probably get it. If they all do that, fairly obviously, we will see wage inflation. We have faced tougher tax reform challenges in theast and met them. As a minimum, IMO, we have to take theind out of the sales of thenvestment property market, to stop the situation getting worse.
Just looked up last elections stats. The Rodent spent at the rate of $200M per minute in that campaign launch. And people are just not buying it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22740892-5013964,00.html
The way to solve the housing crisis is something that Possum already has talked about. The government needs to be address negative gearing.
The solution is to put grandfather clauses to existing negatively geared properties, and then change the policy so that it only applies to certain types (read values) of properties. The question is one of complexity. To truly solve it you’d have a sliding scale of gearing protection where bands of support are offered. But that WOULD make it a complex law, so might get turfed just on principle.
But 100% negative gearing on properties under 15 years old, and no negative gearing for any portion above a certain amount on properties valued above 500k would mean that new houses would be built, and existing houses would gradually reduce over time.
You can’t just remove negative gearing. Too many people would be hurt. But you can change the law so that the tax break exists to support property investment where it needs to be invested. This is on par with what just about every other country does with this tax break. Only Australia, through the howard government, does it in such a blanket way.
The Howard governments tax breaks in negative gearing are the reason we have a housing crisis.
Dennis said Howard was steaming
That Rudd was in for a creaming
He spoke of the narrowing
We thought it was harrowing
Possum proved he was dreaming.
Not entirely sure what you’re postulating here. Indexation is the means by which the Government maintains the value of its original investment in the student. Otherwise, thanks to inflation, the HECS debt of $5,000 now will be worth substantially less in – say – 2012 dollar terms.
Commercial loan agreements charge an interest rate, which includes the “real” (ie inflation-free) interest rate (taken to be roughly equivalent to the RBA’ cash rate), an inflation component, and a profit component. Commercial interest rates necessarily involve the lender making a profit, indexation does not.
Indexation merely keeps the value of something (eg HECS debt) constant in the face of rising inflation. If the Government did not index HECS debts, then former students would effectively be profiting by deferring their debt. This would be inequitable for those students who paid up front, not to mention taxpayers generally – their investment in that student will otherwise be devalued over time.
Please don’t think I’m harping on this distinction, I’m just responding to your post – I’ve had this whole indexation/interest/HECS discussion before elsewhere, and it irks me.
Note: I know that modern HECS debts are substantially more than $5000!!
lol.
I put the negative gearing discussion in a thread by itself on ozpolitics…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=27910#p27910
The narrowing is really happening only 12 days left, this is the only narrowing I can see.
But what happens if there is a widening?
Will at 349, if you still have Penny Wong’s e-mail, would you consider forwarding it to me at cgswans@gmail.com ? I’d be interested to see what she had to say.
It’s a bit ridiculous, isn’t it?
Surely just a specified split, or capped split in operation from the dissolution of parliament would be more rational.
Not that I care that much.
Hemmingway @ 358 – I think you are right. It seemed to me to be John Stirton’s argument that if the Coalition hadn’t started making significant headway by the half-way mark of the campaign, they were stuffed.
Of course, Stirton was sitting on relatively good polling results for the Coalition that he was going to release the next day (iirc)…
So Stirton = must start making headway by week 3 or stuffed; and
Lebovic = must be making headway in the last part of the campaign or stuffed.
Kerry should have them back on and get them to reflect on these early predictions.
Thanks Econocrat… I’m having two policy discussions at the same time. Nice to have someone else answer the HECS question.
It IS an interest-free loan, you just don’t have inflation protection. True, that would present an issue if your wage was going backwards, but one would think that the entire reason you’re doing a TAFE course, would be to increase your skills, so you can get a better job, so you can earn more money.
Implementing a policy that helps people earn more money being more productive using government funds to offset the cost to the voter is exactly the type of thing governments should be doing. And payment of HECS debt only comes out of your paycheck if you earn over a threshold anyway.
Hell… I’d prefer free… but if HECS was available on TAFE courses, it would be a visionary policy. Good for everyone.
I’ve created an ozpolitics thread in policy…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=27913#p27913
adl (359) Graham Edwards has always been a popular bloke, including stints as a state govt minister before he switched to Canberra. He’s an affable Aussie type without an ounce of self-pity for his war wounds, and he’s well-known for his tenacity and hard work in the electorate. As such, his ‘personal percentage’ might be higher than for the average candidate. Thankfully the ALP has another strong candidate to replace him and hopefully the ‘It’s Time’ wave will help sweep her into Cowan.
The COW’s surge in Iraq still showing no signs of working.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1638
OK, Im going out on another *whacky theory* limb here, but bear with me: maybe, just maybe, Dennis, the disjunction between “voting intention” and “best economic manager” suggests the economy is NOT the only vote determining issue this time.
Looks like Howard is about to send the Pork-O-Meter off the dial:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743067-601,00.html
“Coalition can afford to spend: PM”
I recently paid off my HECS (YAY!) and I’m glad I’m not paying an extra 8% tax, I still have my SFSS loans though but that is only 4%. The issue I have with HECS is not that it exists, but how earning a few dollars more can suddenly mean you have a $1000 tax bill. It’s not a progressive system like the normal tax system, it’s as soon as you hit the new bracket you’re supposed to have paid that all year. A few years ago I was like $1/m short of going in to the next bracket, while I did have tax deductions it didn’t help I had a lump sum payout when I left my job causing me to go way in to the next bracket.
When the coalition got in in 96, the first thing they did was basically double how much new students would have to pay. It made HECS a disincentive to study.
I think the whole higher education system needs an overhaul, and given the Libs ‘user pay’ mentality I think Labor is the only one to fix it.
Charlie @ 369: She sent me a formal letter, though I will summarise it for you and send you an email in the next day or so.
Oh Dear! Now even the conservative economists and Workchoice supporters have abandoned ship. Man the liferafts!
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/why_a_perfectly_reasonable/
Now Lefty, do you own Newspoll? Hmm?
Comicstriphero @371:
“So Stirton = must start making headway by week 3 or stuffed; and
Lebovic = must be making headway in the last part of the campaign or stuffed.
Kerry should have them back on and get them to reflect on these early
predictions.”
Muchas Gracias, Hero. No doubt Kerry will be getting them on, but will he be too polite to ask them about their early forecasts?
After hearing the Newspoll chief who replaced Lebovic on television spouting Team Howard propaganda points, there’s no doubt in my mind that Newspoll’s 2 Party Preferred allocation formula is flawed, if not outright shonky. However, I assume the Primary vote tally ( ALP rock solid at 47,48) is accurate.
The RBA – inflation a problem, but slowly moderating. The RBA will be attentive to domestic demand, or, in other words, beware of politicians and promises to spend, spend, spend!
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/StatementsOnMonetaryPolicy/statement_on_monetary_1107.html
In the short term, as noted, both headline and underlying inflation are likely to exceed 3 per cent on a year-ended basis as a result of high CPI outcomes that have already occurred. Looking further ahead, and taking into account the recent monetary policy decisions along with other factors such as the higher exchange rate and the expected moderation in global demand, the Bank projects that inflation will settle at a rate a little below 3 per cent over the next two years. Somewhat lower outcomes could eventuate if global economic conditions prove to be weaker than expected, which might occur if there were further significant disturbances in global financial markets. But it is also possible at this stage of a long economic expansion that inflation will be more difficult to contain, particularly if domestic demand does not moderate.
The pollsters should at least provide a state breakdown of the party support. Just like temperature it is not all the same average across the country. Swings are not uniform. Some states will swing at different frequency/rate. A State breakdown will help decide which seats are likely to go. i expect 3-4 in Victoria.
Here comes the pork, here comes the pork,
and I say it’s all right
Little darlings, it’s been a long cold lonely campaign
Little darlings, it feels like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork
and Pier’s says it will be all right
Little darlings, the snouts are returning to the troughs
Little darlings, it seems like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork
and Glenn say it will be all right
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Little darlings, I feel that ship is slowly sinking
Little darlings, it seems like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork,
and Sol says it will be all right
It’s all right
375 Lefty E- Could not agree more! The MSM’s obsession with the economy, which is largely out of the Governments hands anyway, bemuses me. I’m not sure if it’s because it’s the only area the Rodent is ahead in or if they genuinely believe it. In poll after poll, the voting public show that there are other more important issues.
PI@372
Don’t discount the effects of SerfChoices and targetted Visas. These are policy tools which in recent years have been utilised to drive down wages and salaries in particular sectors. Based on the myth that certain skills are in short supply. Skills are only in short supply based on costs – and Labor should be careful how they approach this issue. A lot of people are looking to Labor to reverse the downward pressure on their wages.
BV Dead right. The weasel’s going to make private school fees tax deductible. That is subsidising bankers and barristers’ kids to attend elite private schools. It has the capacity to win some votes. What on earth is this country coming to
294,
Howard Hater, if the broadcasts are on in the evening, it will be a repeat of the affair. The real deal is on 2pm each day (libs Monday labor Wednesday).
Channel 9 said that they were showing it live so supposedly if the cricket goes past 2pm locally for us, 1pm for you, that means they will break away from the cricket.
48% Labor and 40% Coalition at this stage of the campaign really means it’s all over.
John Howard made two devastating mistakes recently – first calling the election after 3rd November when Blind Freddy could see the risk of an interest rate rise and then apologising/not apologising for it.
Nothing can save him now except a major terrorist strike, a nuclear attack on Iran or for Pakistan to launch nuclear missiles.
I saw the Labor ad for the first time last night on SBS and then on 10 in which the woman with the green bag says John Howard has lost her. It’s a devastating ad and encapsulates virtually everything in one statement. It’s particularly powerful where she turns away at the end.
She’s obviously Labor’s key demographic.
One of the things you learn in advertising is that your softest market is the best one to go for.
Interesting that the ad didn’t say VOTE LABOR.
Where do people go when they are turned off John Howard? Either to Labor or the Greens or perhaps another minor.
Most of the Greens and other votes will come back via preferences.
It’s a very clever ad which gets you in from the first moment.
My wife thought it was a Greens ad at first, presumably from the green bag in the background.
A very large number of people are going to see that and say “yes that’s how I feel”. It reinforces what they have already been thinking.
The Coalition ads look frankly old fashioned and tired. I suppose that’s all the have to work with.
I think so Damien – but its a pitch more in the “base shoring” than “swinger converting” arena.
I think ts a bit late for anything to really shift the result.
If he he’s going to subsidise private schools (even more) this will also be yet another desperate attempt at a wedge. What a pathetic little man he is.
These schools are literally rolling in money. The school near where I live is demolishing 11 heritage listed houses to build an olympic-sized swimming pool and gymnasium, with my money!
More childcare rabbits from a rat’s hat.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/11/12/the-debate-of-all-mothers-and-fathers/
I wonder what the viewer numbers will be for the party launches. Considering the length of the campaign so far and the grade of nonsense that has issued from Howard, you’d expect an historic low level of viewer interest, at least in the Liberal launch. Maybe Rudd will achieve better numbers. Does anyone know if these stats will be published?
Diogenes
I’m not sure if the MSM is so much “obsessed” with the economy or simply finds it a convenient low-cost way to fill out a thirty minute news bulletin with fewer and fewer journalists. You don’t even have to do it yourself any more. Just cross to ComSec for a market wrap, because there is nothing to economics besides the market. It probably won’e even cost you anything – who knows, they might even pay for it as an add. (and Comsec and their kin, being share salesmen, will always give you impartial advice on whether or not to buy shares, LOL).
In short, if the MSM were really obsessed with economics, they would really report it, not reduce it to some product placement and superficial analysis. They just want to look like they know economics. AFR, Alan Kohler and Ross Gittens besides, there are not many I bother with any more.
if red kezza has lebovic and stirton back on, i’ll have to face away from the screen. yes, i know we can’t all look like models…
‘Metooism’ for Rudd but ‘Direct assault’ when Howard uses the same tactic?
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/howards-education-bluster-a-disingenuous-bit-of-me-tooism/
What about forgiving a proportion of HECS debts for those who undertake post graduate emmployment in socially “desirable” areas.. eg rural post for medicos.. govt schools for teachers… plus extend HECS to TAFEs, with similar attenuation for desired post training employment?
matbe also change the proportion of future HECS awards so that desired careers (EG Engineering, medicine, teaching, nursing) become more attractive.
385
Diogenes Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 11:46 am
375 Lefty E- Could not agree more! The MSM’s obsession with the economy, which is largely out of the Governments hands anyway, bemuses me. I’m not sure if it’s because it’s the only area the Rodent is ahead in or if they genuinely believe it. In poll after poll, the voting public show that there are other more important issues.
…
You’re right Diogenes. As Possum has pointed out, using the leaked crosby/textor research, while the coalition score well on macro-economic management, this issue has become a very weak driver of opinion. The coalition are doing their best to raise the prominence of this issue, but seemingly are not getting far. In any case, this is a dangerous game for the Liberals because it invokes discussion of the triple-headed monster: excessive spendng, inflation and rising interest rates. It is as likely to cost as win votes, except among their true-believers.
Getting back to an earlier thread about Joe Hockey campaigning in Crows Nest. I’ve seen Mike Bailey three times around the place, and haven’t seen Joe anywhere.
By the way, I asked Mike about environmental and tax policy (this was some weeks ago) and the weatherman was keeping things pretty close to his chest. All he really had, basically, was a hand shake and a smile.
He needs a swing of 10%, but my forecast is Mike will come pretty close.
Socrates, re Economics in the MSM,
Kenneth Davidson in the Age usually has a rational point of view,
I am not in favour of privatising the ABC, f them seriously, those slack bastards will show The Bill instead of the campaign launch and are streaming it online instead wtf is wrong with the ABC???
No wonder nobody is interested in politics they never give the people any bloody info on it!
The MSM does something that still surprises me. Every day the print this huge two/three page spread of the stock, shares etc. I mean it would be less read than the Wagga Dogs. The only reason I can see for the Daily “Finance/business” section is that it reinforces this notion that we are in an economy and not in a society. I know that the papers have other sections but every day they trot out these strange experts on economics and business. Can you imagine what the effect would be if they had a whole section every day dedicated to Global Warming and the $billions of dollars worth of opportunities and job creation through the non-carbon energy markets. Sorry, what was I thinking, their major supporters are from the existing economy not the Future reality.
Back to thread, Just trying to find Kubler-Ross on death and dying, I remember that the first stage is denial, followed by bargaining, part of bargaining is tidying up the house/affairs. Can anyone hear the shreders going?
sorry ‘now’
Serenity Now!
Gippslander 397. The HECS charges for Teaching and Nursing are already heavily discounted. A new ‘cluster’, as DEET calls them, for these degrees was brought in about three years ago. The demand for engineering and medicine far outweighs the places available. The problem is supply of capacity, not demand.
cheers,
Alan H
Follow the Preferences at 402, the mainstream media do that (devote large spaces) to business/finance news for two reasons:
1/ The financial services industry is a big advertiser
2/ Most of us now have to take responsibility for our own retirement income
Family First try to explain their support for Pauline Hanson at their campaign launch, yesterday. Very wierd.
http://www.grods.com/post/1615/
re 402 and 405
But the pages of stock prices seem redundant to me.
If you need to know that stuff, you need to know the price now – not yesterdays’ close. If you don’t need to know then why print it.
The articles / opinions / rumour pages are widely used by the banks, however.
Glen: Serenity now
Well Glen, I agree it is over, barring a bizarre twist in world events or a stuffup of historic proportions by Rudd, and I think he’s too disciplined for that. At least you have come through this campaign with your credibility intact which is more than I can say for many of your comrades in the Liberal bunker. Hope you keep posting on these forums after 24 November, as its valuable to get both sides POV, rather than the usual wind up statements. I’d get a DVD of the Great Escape to watch for election night.
kind regards
Socrates
394 Socrates- Point well taken. I often wonder why we get five minutes of Finance in every news bulletin. A few shares go up or down, the dollar goes up and down a bit and commodity prices change. Surely no-one bases any financial decision on this information which is never analysed, except by Alan Kohler. If you were going to make a financial decision, you’d go to a financial expert or if you had a pretty good idea, you’d DIY using the AFR etc. The 5 minutes seems like a filler.
403 [sorry ‘now’
Serenity Now!]
Glen, Name the other 24 Nuclear Power sites now.
btw, why “MSM”?
407 Rates Analyst, you’re right, the stock tables are redundant, but editors who have tried to get rid of them immediately are bombarded by thousands of angry letters (letters, not emails) from silly old buggers who scan the stock tables every day with a magnifying glass. I kid you not. It’s a generational thing.
I forgot to add a third reason that economic/financial news uses up so much space. It’s cheap to cover. You can write 15 stories off an ABS economic data release without calling anyone or leaving the office.
alan h, actually a bigger problem with nurses is that they’re leaving the profession in droves. it’s not a shortage of them to begin with, necessarily, but there are so many other more pleasant ways to earn a living than, say, getting bullied at RNSH. kevin’s idea of paying them a few grand to return, though, might just work!
I agree, the plethora of finance reporting is superficial to the point of meaninglessness. It is like hearing the tote on the Wagga dogs. I’m not sure superannuation plans are so time critical that up to the minute or even daily stock prices are essential to ensure good returns – or if they help at all. As many found out in the stock slump of a few years ago, it’s better to keep an eye on it and get out of high risk options but that doesn’t require millions of print miles and banal recitations of the all ords, which, unless you have bought the index, doesn’t really mean much. I agree its only plausible function is to convince us how connected we are to markets and to remain compliant while handing power to the financial elites.
AlanH
Thanks for the information in 404, of which I was ignorant.
As you have implied, it is difficult to “kick start” education programs in areas that been neglected for years without at the same time increasing problems in the delivery of services.
Do you think we need to increase skills based immigration to make up the shortfall?
Without being too politically partisan I think our treatment of Dr Haneef, and demonisation of other ethnic groups doesn’t help our prospects
Mr Denmore, you are absolutely right, But the financial security thing. When most of us think about investments, I’m sureyou research with a bit more depth than the movements in the stock and bonds in the Herald Sun. If you want a sure bet here’s one. Stop buying the crap papers, annual saving say $500, Invest in any reputable way. Do that for 30 years, you will get somewhere close to $100K
402 Follow the preferences. The five stages of grieving are
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
They are not always sequential, and they often overlap. Poor Dennis is still stuck in Denial so he’s got a lot of therapy to go.
Gipslander
I agree Kenneth Davidson is good. In fact, in transport (my own field) I read him quite often. I was a bit restrictive in my comments because we get the SMH at home and the AFR at work, but I trust you will still appreciate the general point.
401
Glen Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I am not in favour of privatising the ABC, f them seriously, those slack bastards will show The Bill instead of the campaign launch and are streaming it online instead wtf is wrong with the ABC???
…
Who wants to privatise the ABC? What a strange notion! I am very content watching The Bill. It is better than politics anytime: it’s well-scripted, has strongly constructed characters, enough dramatic tension for my jangled nerves, and is not aimed at duping me. Can the launch!
I actually think Dennis is at 3. Bargaining.
which is why he was trotting out numbers like PM satisfaction and handling the economy.the man’s bargaining with himself. i think he’ll hold this until the election, then move on to the next stage.
Glen on the other hand has breezily swept through the 5 stages and is on to stage 6; cheerfulness.
can anyone spell it out for me…wtf does MSM stand for?
MainStream Media
ahhh! thanks SL
i thought melbourne-sydney-media
I have noted a bit of chatter about reducing HECS. Can I just say that most students don’t give a toss about HECS. That just defer it and forget about it. Sure they might think about it in latter life when they are being taxed more, but by that point any reduction in HECS for future students would only irritate them because they had to pay the full wack.
HECS is not an issue. The rise in HECS of 25% barely raised a noise outside of the militant student union circles. If the ALP thinks it will get anything out of cutting it then they are kidding themselves. The price of text books and accomodation are more an issue for uni students because actually have to pay for them when the cost is incurred. Anyone who thinks HECS is an issue will already be voting Labor anyway. I’d bet your average ‘aspirational voter’ probably thinks the current HECS subsidised system is overly generous as it is….
Liberal launch/wake on Sky 1.00PM, link below:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
or melb-syd-monopoly
out west, we live in a news desert. the west looks like a newspaper, but us a mirage….the oz is like grit up one’s shorts: veryr very annoying
Thank you Diogenes,
The moment I’m looking forward to the most on election night is Howards speech. Do other people remember how he behaved when the poms won the world cup, well I know he’s a sporting tragic, but I reckon this is going to really piss him off. My money is on something really bitter,
Sound economic management eh? This isn’t going to help El Rodente:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rba-rate-rise-alert/2007/11/12/1194766554622.html
Perhaps Howard will announce that he is going to buy Newspoll so that he can learn to “understand it” like Shanahanamanabana and thus figure out how to bounce back?
ND
I don’t know what your source of information on students is but the ones I deal with (ex engineering students) care a great deal. It is an expensive degree, and they will have to pay the HECS as soon as they start working.
I think today’s ‘Newspoil’ showing the Libs going nowhere will see a few MSM journos jumping ship over the next week. If Rupert decides to back Labor, it will be interesting times for some of the GG and Tele sycophants.
414 and 416, you’re right, the daily noise of what’s happening in financial markets should be irrelevant to most people, for whom the best solution is just to buy a low-cost, tax-aware index equity fund, some government bonds for safety, a little bit of property and a reserve of cash. The rest is irrelevant.
But it’s in the interests of the financial services industry to keep people chopping and changing and turning over their portfolios by picking stocks and trying to time the markets. This is how the industry – a giant fee machine – earns its profits.
One fund manager seeks to differentiate itself from another by talking up its ability to “beat” the market. And the media is happy to take their advertising dollars.
The best journalists are the ones who provide context – and the ‘why’ – of what’s going on the markets and the macro-economy. People like Gittens and Davidson and Kohler and Barrie Dunstan in the AFR.
The irony is all this “economic management” nonsense debate in the election campaign is being reported on by Canberra-based political journos, nearly all of whom are economically illiterate. Gittins (in two recent columns) and Kohler (with a single graph in his ABC news spot) blew apart the myth of the coalition as superior economic “managers’. But the editors somehow think senior political journos (who spend the campaign behind their PC) are better placed to comment on this.
My theory is that this all stems from a misunderstanding among editors that the financial markets and the economy are the same thing. They are not. And if they weren’t treated this way, Howard would not have been able to fool the electorate for as long as he has.
429
Evan Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Sound economic management eh? This isn’t going to help El Rodente:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rba-rate-rise-alert/2007/11/12/1194766554622.html
…
Yes Evan. Howard’s given us the trifecta: hish government spending, rising inflation and rising interest rates. He may not want to say he’s sorry, but he’s sure going to feel sorry on Nov 24.
Blindoptimist, I’m glad Swing Lowe has elucidated MSM for you. It can be annoying when all the Bloggers stand back, waiting for someone else to reply!
In my case I was wondering what “corflutes”were…well I’d worked out they were placards, but never knew why they were so called. I had dozens of MarK Latham ones left over from the last election.. even the Garbos didn’t want to take them! I imagine the Kevin Rudds from this year will become collectors items
I don’t know what JWH’s election concession speech will be like but I hope it includes congratulations to Maxine. In any event it is sure to be a rich and gratifying telivisual experience.
Yeah, my GF is extremely unimpressed with her $30,000 HECS debt. Obviously takes a lot longer to save for a house when you are paying off HECS instead of putting the extra money into a kitty.
Slashing existing HECS debts in half would certainly win a few votes!
433 Mr Dinmore
Exactly, which is why I regard the crosses to ComSec and all the market wraps as little more than product placements and programming filler. You might as well ask the Real Estate Institute whether its the right time to buy a house.
have ever seen Howard (half) naked? http://www.livenews.com.au/static/articles/14797/F_14797_john-howard-david_320.jpg
he is better than I imagin
433 Mr Dinmore- Thank you for that insight. My lamp might have found an honest man!
435
Gippslander Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
I had dozens of MarK Latham ones left over from the last election.. even the Garbos didn’t want to take them! I imagine the Kevin Rudds from this year will become collectors items.
……
For sure, Gippslander, much like any holy relics left from 1972 & “It’s Time”. I think it would be worth grabbing some Howard junk too – especially images that have been touched up by the voters. I might try and get some on e-bay, for curiosity’s sake.
Ha ha andrew robb on sky – he is seeing “The Narrowing”
‘Almost’ makes you feel some sorrow for the tosser – but not much
442
dave Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Ha ha andrew robb on sky – he is seeing “The Narrowing”
….
Well, as you move away from two pints, the distance between them appears to narrow. Robb must be retreating from reality, giving rise to this illusion.
ND
The point about HECS debts isn’t about winning votes, but using Government policy to attract people into certain careers (medicine, teaching, nursing) at the expense of others (law, accountancy), and to make the delivery of services in rural and regional areas more attractive to young professionals. that’s he sort of thing “Education Revolutions ” are made of. That’s how you get our brightest brains to stay in Australia and solve Climate Change problems. it’s also how you get more plumbers!
FTP 428 – I said here the other day that I don’t believe howard will make a concession speech on Sat nite. He will deny the outcome and state that he is waiting for all the postal votes to come in or some such. When he accepts the inevitable, he will call a press conference at Kirribilli or in his Sydney office and announce the outcome. This assumes the Libs lose and he loses. If the Libs lose and he holds Bennelong, he will stick around for a few weeks then quit.
438 Socrates, those silly Commsec crosses are cheap TV. The networks effectively outsource their finance “coverage” by crossing to some vapid screen jockey reading out lists of prices.
This is emblematic of how the media trivialises the huge transfer of risk to the individual in capitalist economies in recent years. Our economic lives are reduced to a racecall of individual stock prices.
John Quiggin has described this as a central idea of the early 21st century – the transfer of risk from governments and businesses to individual households – risks for our work and careers, our health, our education, our retirement.
Read his paper here.
http://cpd.org.au/sites/cpd/files/u2/JohnQuiggin_The_Risk_Society_CPD_July07.pdf
I’m not sure Howard could bring himself to make a concession speech full stop. We’ll probably see Costello doing it instead.
Not the other Tim: I can see it now, Howard will put Cossie up there because ‘We’re a Team’. Perhaps Janette could make the speech, or will she be racing off to Kirribilli to collect all her valuables?
If it’s comprehensive he’ll concede on the night, possibly about 10.30. I predict he’ll be defiant, saying how proud he is of his record. The tone will be pleading, like that now infamous 7.30 Report interview (”please reelect me”). The bottom lip will be quivering so much he’ll look like a ventriloquist’s dummy. There will be crosses to various party faithfull, many of whom will be bawling.
Cross to my loungeroom, where I’ll be raising a glass of Clicquot and shouting, and stamping. Laughing. Tears of joy. Whoo! Yes ratty, we’re gonna hammer you into the ground like a tent peg.
Dolly now on sky – “when it comes to polling day I doubt they will take the risk of labor”
Dumb smuck – his voice almost pleading…..
ho h ho !
I think HECS is actually a good tax-I wouldn’t touch it. The good thing about it is that it doesn’t kick in until someone has the capacity to pay it without it being an undue burden, so to that extent it’s a progressive tax. Our tertiary education sector needs more money, and for most universtity graduates a degree is a passport to a satisfying job and a good income after a few years, so let’s keep HECS. It would be unfair for people in blue collar/lower white collar jobs to fund the university system from their taxes, when they don’t get the benefit. And you can play with HECS to encourage people to move to or avoid particular courses, depending on society’s needs.
I know much less about how TAFE is funded, but would something similar work there? People with a trade who work hard and are smart enough to make a business out of their skills can make big money, which is a great thing (provided they don’t cheat on their tax! I think the black economy is still alive and well, from my experience.) Isn’t it reasonable that people who are enjoying a high income through the TAFE education should also put a bit back into the system which got them started?
Howard will make a concession speech. He has lost elections before and he knows the taste of both victory and defeat. He is not so unrealistic to think he can prevent a change of government by wishing it away.
Help Help Help – This Liberal launch is VERY VERY VERY BORING.
Howard has just said that the government is free of debt. I read some where that it’s a furphy that they’ve paid off all the debt. Can anyone confirm that the govt has no debt and if it does have some debt, how much?
453
Observer Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Help Help Help – This Liberal launch is VERY VERY VERY BORING.
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It’s intentionally done, Observer: they want to dull you into submission.
Stephen Mayne @ Crikey has been banging on about this for a LONG time. I’ll look for a link.
$50 odd billion of govt bonds……..johnny keeps forgetting
RBA rate rise alert
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rba-rate-rise-alert/2007/11/12/1194766554622.html
Homeowners reeling from last week’s interest rate rise may have to further trim Christmas budgets with another hike possible as early as next month.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its quarterly monetary policy statement released today, has warned that inflation pressures are likely to continue until March 2008.
Right before libs campaign launch ! Great stuff. We just need rodent to trip over when getting onto the stage
Depends on how you measure it.
There are slightly more than A$60bn worth of Government bonds on issue.
But these are only on issue to make the financial markets function more smoothly. The Government also holds other assets – most notably the Future Fund.
If you count the Future Fund as an asset, then they have a net 0 position becuase the amout they owe in Government bonds is cancelled out by the assets.
But the only reason they have the Future Fund is because of the unfunded Superannuation liability…. which probably should count as debt, to be fair. In which case the Future Fund and the Super Liabiliity cancel out and you are left with a net debt position (from memory).
If I had to guess I’d suggest about A$30bn.
When have no NET DEBT.
Reason is to keep the market in government bonds functional.
Smirk gave a commitment couple years ago. You never know when borrowings will be required by governments of either persuasion in the future.
Gippslander
Plenty of students will line up to do Medicine if more places are provided.
Re nursing and teaching, the pay rates post 5 years out of training are so low compared to other areas. But teachers and nurses have transferable skills. The 5 years they have put in and the skills they have developed make them very employable elsewhere. I know this from experience. I have worked in large corporates and there are plenty of ex teachers and some ex nurses there. These people are usually earning at least 1.5 times what they would be getting back in schools / hospitals, and often much much more. The stress is no where as great as being in a hospital or school.
It is society that is the loser here. The individual teacher or nurse can vote with his / her feet. But society will pay in the long run.
The RBA statement this morning hints at another rise in February. The chance of a Dec rate rise has fallen considerably.
Though if the main banks pass on a rate rise of their own accord, mortgage rates could still rise in Dec.
When is the next galaxy poll? Galaxy are proven to be the most reliable, so does anyone know when the next galaxy poll will be conducted/released?
Ladies and Gentlemen of Australia, today the people of this great country have decided who will govern our great land for the next three years. Whilst I am saddened that I and Peter are now out, I am greatful that he’ll never be Prime Minister. As for those people on Blogs, I never read anything you wrote so there etc etc
sigh – Shanahack won’t be deterred. What next?: “majority of voters prefer PM’s tie colour – Howard on the way back (film at eleven)”. Pity the newspoll he owns won’t deliver for him….
All they’re doing at the Libs launch is bashing state governments. BORING. I don’t think they realise that most people are entirely sick of the Federal Government blaming the States for everything.
Parammatta Moderate: HECS isn’t a progressive tax, because as soon as you get to the next threshold you pay that rate on all your income and not just on the income over that threshold. It’s quite possible that earning $1 more a year means you end up paying $370 more in tax (based on going from 2nd highest bracket to the highest). Recent changes to HECS also means the amount is not calculated on your taxable income but the which means tax minimisation efforts are negated. From the ATO’s website they say they calculate based on – “Taxable income plus any net rental losses, total reportable fringe benefits amounts and exempt foreign employment income”.
There are also some people, like me, who have SFSS debts and in the last few years I was paying 12% extra tax. You can’t tell me that that is progressive? How is one supposed to afford a house, little own afford rent. In my case that equated to about an extra $10K/y.
I don’t think anyone has an issue in repaying HECS, but the debts and the scales are so out of whack that its no wonder there are people struggling to afford a house.
I think it’s time for an overhaul in both calculating HECS for subjects, but also how it’s repaid and allow people to afford to live.
There were a few Pollyannas a few days ago who didn’t detest Keystone Keelty the way I did. I maintain he will be one of the first to go in two weeks and provide further evidence. Moronic sums it up.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743536-601,00.html
Morning ‘Bludgers, depressed manics, Howard Haters, roller-coaster riders and Glen.
I’m finally going to make my call on the election results: 53/47 on the day (or should that be der Tag?)
The Coalition of the Narrowing has today’s launch to pull any remaining rabbits out of any remaining hats, after which any further rabbits will be turned into felt and thence to Akubra hats which will be duly supplied to the likes of Shanahan, Milne, “Saint” Paul Kelly, Greg Sheridan for their gastronomic pleasure.
Judging from Downer’s article this morning, it’s best to keep him on a Nil-Per-Mouth diet, no hats supplied for the eating, so that he may quietly expire from political starvation surrounded by friends and family, as he drowns in his own bile and hissy juices. Downer is one of a kind in the tantrum throwing stakes and we – from both sides of politics – should all work together to make sure the mold is broken there and then on November 24th, once and for all.
We are about to witness the final Götterdämmerung of the Liberal and National Agrarian Socialist parties as the backbenchers in outlying provinces realise the game is finally up and that it’s time to crawl through the sewers on the off-chance they may survive the coming storm, that it’s every man and woman for himself and herself… “Suave qui peut” indeed.
In the washup they may console themselves (and indeed more than a few Laborites, if said Laborites are honest with themselves) that if the mad Christians and neo-cons can be cut out of their belioved parties there’s a chance that some of the corrupt, bloated State Labor governments may just get the chop at their respective next electoral outings. Slim chance, I know, given the range of fundalmentalist, suicidal insanities that seems to have gripped to Tories – where a self-administered bullet to the brain is seen as more honourable than actually competing in and winning elections – but where there’s a spark of life, it seems there’s a spark of hope. However, fellow ‘Bludgers, don’t hold your breath on that one.
Somebody told Johnny that an orangutan might help him stem the tide, but with Rudd finally showing some cojones at last and actually sounding like he wants to win an election rather than adjourn it, meetingwize, until 2010, I think the security guards will be out in force at Kirribilli on the 25th, checking the removalist’s cardboard boxes for contraband bottles of claret and the odd crystal chandelier that their erstwhile master and mistress may seek to smuggle out as souvenirs.
Wenck is not coming. The 9th Army is a rabble. The edifice of Howardian invulnerability is rubble… and all but the last few remaining diehards know it.
This is not to say they can’t do some spiteful damage in the next two weeks, but I believe, to all intents and purposes, the Party’s over.
Hundreds of thousands of polled citizens in scores of polls have shopwn this for a long time. Way back when La Grattan first querelously wrote that a poll loss for the government after the 2006 Budget was “counter-intuitive” (but the loyal stenographers of the ABC were still insisting that Labor couldn’t take a trick) we saw the first hints that all might not be well in Howard World. Despite Trioli’s knicker-wetting protestations last August that L’il Johnnie could stay PM “for as long as he liked” after defeating… what?… a limp lettuce leaf in the form of Costello’s delusions of Lodge-linked grandeur, the slippery slide downwards has been inexorable. Even then, in that August-September sunshine of last year the Coalition had already won the last opinion poll that it would ever win in what would become its last term of government. The die was already cast, and the cast – Howard and his leadership team, plus the whole corrupted cesspit that the public service has become – would also die (politically, at least)… as dead as dodos… mourned even less.
Expect to see, in the next two weeks among the Tory faithful, sudden unexplained absences, quiet denials of fealty, the odd pocket of local Lib resistance wiped out as Labor’s campaign gets into top gear, steamrolling across the Molonglo, with the ammunition it has been hoarding until now expended fully, accurately and devastatingly in the direction of the Coalition bunker.
The public’s money – $200 million of it, looted from our taxes and the hated GST – has been paid out to their cronies in the advertising and media industries and, once the dust has settled, will soon start to trickle back into their greedy pockets as kickbacks in cash and kind over the next few years. They’ll be alright, Jack.
Labor will need to clean up a few outstanding issues: the Kids Overboard, AWB, Haneef, Hicks. The dispossessed and hopeless of Nauru will need hope. A Republic will be back on the agenda and will sail through without opposition.
And perhaps in the midst of all this we can think a little to the future, a Howard-Costello-Downer-Andrews-Ruddock-Minchin-Mirabella-free future. That, fellow ‘Bludgers, to this non-smoker, is a pleasant prospect, n’est ce pas?
LOL – They’ve blamed Labor for the drought! Now we know there are a few Gods in Labor – but really!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/eaten-by-singapore/2007/07/21/1184560106866.html
“While other nations such as China, Singapore, Russia, Korea, Kuwait and Norway build up huge sovereign funds, Australia, with its world-beating dowry of natural assets, still has a Federal Government with a negative net worth of $10 billion in the middle of an unprecedented commodities boom.
Even including the $52 billion in the Future Fund and all land and defence assets, these assets do not exceed the $50 billion in outstanding federal debt and $111 billion in unfunded superannuation liabilities as at June 30, 2007.”
About HECS debts – they sure are a burden, especially with the lower thresholds introduced under Howard; one of my students was hit for HECS repayments before he’d even finished his degree because he earned too much working part-time!
But the bigger problem is that the total payment the universities receive from the Commonwealth isn’t enough to cover the cost of teaching publicly funded students. Last time I looked, it didn’t even pay wages. That means that the universities are falling over themselves to get fee-paying students, preferably internationals, because they at least cover their own costs. Tilts the whole playing field the wrong way, and makes any idea of equity a joke.
Where’s the “Liberal” logo?