Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
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‘Turthful’ is swahili for ‘honest’, BTW
So Howard is going to do yet another me-too, eh? I think this is in a similar league to broadband. A great idea from Labor that gained a lot of traction with voters, so Howard steps in to try to trump it by throwing even bigger bucks at it.
hyper extended negative narrowing.
Sorry, yes McMillan not La Trobe.
…. and yes, go Judd!!
ShowsOn @ 44
You know I actually thought the whole Orangutan thing showed Howard doing something honest and decent for a change, if I didn’t intensely dislike him it would have been quite touching. It is the kind of story that if on ACA or similar would have won Howard some votes.
Also, great work on your election day target so far. Keep it up.
The economic issue must not be front and centre anymore if Libs are now targetting and moving to the Labor stronghold of education for their caimpaign launch. This is exactly where Rudd wants the Libs to move to at this crucial point of the campaign. Has Rudd been messing with Howard’s mind again?
hyper extended reflexive dematerialised narrowing
Is Bribie Island to get 25 nuclear power plants under Liberal Policy or will another 24 places be named at their policy launch.
The big tax cuts failed and economics is meant to the LNP strong point; education belongs to Labor, he can promise what he likes it wont make a difference.
with a particularly narrow monad in view
Guys, if you’re gonna place a bet, your sanest strategy is with sportingbet. Put $30 down on the election itself, then put your free $100 on maxine.
lol@ 44
Orangutangs got porked.
Go Rattus
Labor knew the education tax-rebate was coming. The Libs couldn’t help blurting out that they would have a “more comprehensive” approach when Labor came up with its rebate for laptops etc.
Kev will out-maneuver Howard when he announces his policy on Wed.
CLde F, correct, the translucent albino Yeti.
A brilliant poll for the ALP. Surely Coalition supporters must at least be contemplating a change of government at this stage (I’m looking at you steven_kaye).
Following up on Jarusa earlier… whilst I have been disparaging of the ALP campaign so far I think the YRAW campaign has been very good and very effective. They’ve been out there working hard for a long time now and that could very well be a reason for the ALP’s sustained position in the polls. I constantly see cars with YRAW stickers, and when I’m out and about often see YRAW teams out handing out balloons, getting petitions signed etc.
I live in Eden-Monaro and every Thursday for the year, rain or shine, there’s been someone on the road going into Canberra spruiking the YRAW message.
Less than 2 weeks to go now… at last it will be over.
sorry that should be hyper extended reflexive dematerialised non-narrowing. silly me!
Good yeh.
I just fed 55% 2pp into Antony’s HoR calculator. 92 seats to Labor = 7.7% swing. a beautiful set of numbers!!
ShanaHam right on target:
THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.
What a d1ck
link on ShanaHam: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html
What time is the DT updated online?
53
Paisano Says:
hyper extended negative narrowing
Ha ha ha ha.
The ‘negative narrowing’ we had to have.
Any news on the Bennelong poll?
Of interest is the fact that the Sky News report says this
“The latest Newspoll survey shows last week’s interest rate rise has affected the Coalition’s stance in the polls. However, Prime Minister John Howard still remains preferred economic manager over Kevin Rudd.”
I wouldn’t so much mind the pointer to economic manager numbers (although it might help if they gave them – and also showed, FWIW, what movement if any had occured), if a range of other pointers, such as the primary and 2pp preferred indicated that they were narrowing the gap in those other areas. Such a pointer might then be meaningful.
That this doesn’t appear to be the case indicates (and I’m being generous here), that the Sky journalists have problems identifying what constitutes relevant facts in such matters, and put any old non sequitur nonsense in to fill a paragraph.
That, or they genuinely believe that if they keep accentuating the “positive” it will begin to shift the polls in Howard’s favour. The political bias and favoritism I can tolerate – no point in getting cross about Rupert Murdoch working to further his business interests. But the delusionary belief in their influence at this stage in the game is truly mindbending.
Insider Expert Commentator (Pick your expert):
Yes this poll is all very well, but once the campaign proper starts, the polls will invariably tighten.
Another thing that should be highlighted is that Howard now has a net negative satisfaction rating. (albeit a small one).
Yes I agree, but it is really out of character for Howard.
You can’t remake a ~35 year political career during a single election campaign.
Thanks. My fear is I’ll make it to 80, but not 79. I feel really strong though, so either way it is working out good.
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
Haha, almost exactly what I said he would say. Clearly a sub wrote the headline, I’m sure Dennis would have gone with mine if he had the choice
oh, sorry, last question on sporting bet… I won’t turn this into helping the lamer morning!
on the web page, in the ‘my account’ area, there’s a menu on the right handside, in it there’s a link saying “My Free Bets” – following this – it says I haven’t got any free bets…
in the middle section of this ‘my account’ area… it’s got my name, my pin, my username, balance, pending bets and F/B (which I assume is Free Bets…) – this also has $0…
Am I missing something really obvious or is just inexplicable? if it is inexplicable, don’t worry, I ring them tomorrow and find out the prob… but yeah, it’s just that I’d like to get a bet on asap… (and yep, I’m doing the Alan H suggestion of betting Maxine!) So, if anyone does have any clue, it would be excellent!
Ever since Rudd trounced Howard in the debate he has been much more calm and easy going and prime-ministerial. He got Howard’s measure and he knew it.
Shanannahanan speaketh!
“THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html
Just checked http://www.sportsacumen.com
Seat by Seat betting WITH MULTIPLES.
Just did a WA Trifecta: Stirling, Hasluck, Brand, Swan and Cowan.
Easy Money!
I swear this is what Shammers actually says in his peiece in the Oz.
Laugh! I nearly fell off the chair. In fact, I did!
But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.
Amazing
Personally I think tax rebates for private school fees stink and together with the massive Federal funding they already receive is just more middle class welfare.
from The Oz’s very own Sham Feign (”Myself Alone”)
“But even after the rate rise and some slippage in support, Mr Howard remains the clear choice of voters on the issue of who is best able to manage the economy, with a lead of 14 percentage points. Before the rate rise, Mr Howard recorded a rating of 51 per cent on the issue, compared with Mr Rudd’s 32 per cent. The latest Newspoll shows support for Mr Howard slipping to 49 per cent and Mr Rudd’s jumping three points to 35 per cent. ”
So he’s even going backward there.
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ShowsOn Says:
You can’t remake a ~35 year political career during a single election campaign.
Which is exactly why nothing Howard does now will make any big difference. He has played all his cards over the years and any attempt to make big, out-of-character ideology/policy shifts now will just be seen for as a cynical, unprincipled and desparate attempt to hang on.
nite all
Of course Tory Crimes… but the Liberal Party have an election to buy here and nothing can get in the way. How dare the Labor Party stand in their way. These ungrateful voters just don’t know what’s good for them.
And then there’s Dolly
Rudd is weak on national security. He is weak because he lacks substance. He lacks substance because he has little experience and even less conviction. He does not know what he stands for; nor does Labor. The world moved on; Labor stood still. Now they seek to copy but inevitably get confused and get it wrong. You cannot get it wrong on national security, the highest priority any government has. But Labor has and would.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740401-7583,00.html
Mr God – will this be two weeks of one big ‘funniest home video’?
I’ll allow myself to start searching for the LPs for an election night soundtrack
I think the sweetest song to play on will be Like a Rolling Stone
[i]Once upon a time you dressed so fine
You threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn’t you?
People’d call, say, “Beware doll, you’re bound to fall”
You thought they were all kiddin’ you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hangin’ out
Now you don’t talk so loud
Now you don’t seem so proud
About having to be scrounging for your next meal.
How does it feel
How does it feel
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown
Like a rolling stone?
Is Howard trying to bait Rudd with this education rebate towards private school fees? Tempt him to do a Latham and alienate the ‘aspirationals’?
A good poll this. Narrowing, where for art thou????
If the best Rattus can come up with is more pork then he’s screwed. Even if its well targeted pork (ie: at small l liberals that are paying private school fee’s) then i suspect it will be too little too late. Large amounts of coin thrown into middle class welfare this late in the election campaign is sheer, blatant desperation. Particularly if its in the form of straight tax rebates which have got to be inflationary in the short term.
Hopefully the ALP will not try to match it $ for $. They need to realize that they don’t need to be desperate. They are at least 8-10 points ahead on the TPP and they have a primary of 47-48% for gods sake!!
Just stay the course, and hit the enemy hard with SerfChoices, Rattus Himself, and Fiscal Responsibility armed broadsides. That will do it.
When it comes to me-tooism, it works much better for an opposition than it does for a government. When an opposition does it, it can be more easily explained as a tactic, especially when it comes to Howard and the MSM and the need to avoid wedges. It can even point to the deep desire for an opposition to win, which in itself is important.
But when a government does it, it can look desperate. It highlights the notion that they have run out of ideas and lack vision and leadership. It therefore becomes easier to conclude that the government is no longer fit to govern and should be placed into opposition.
Shamaham would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.
Aspirational narrowing.
Vintage Shanahan,not allowed to see the wood for the trees because Murdoch says so.
The “OZ”,what a bunch of jerks!!!!!!!!!
Paisano, thanks for that – Mr AWB has spoken his words of wisdom – how delicious!
General Wenck has forsaken us oh the humanity!
Serenity Now!
Back to some sanity – just thought you guys would like that up top lol!
Oh well the bewdy of this is if we pull of a miracle and win ill be ecstatic but if we lose it won’t hurt as bad as if it came as a shock.
Unless they change soon i mean real soon i will have little faith the Tories can pull it off.
VoterBoy, he ain’t going nowhere, except out the back door at about Mach 3.
How does one keep doing the business in such circumstances? Maybe he will lose it big time. Could be a hoot. What would be fun would be an ACN at something radical – say 55-45 – followed by another Newspoll at something unusual – maybe 55-45.
Then election night live. We’ll all be in bed by 8:30, it having been called at 7:30 by AG. Guess what the 2PP will be?
Adieu!
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