Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
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Paisano @ 89. Before I clicked on your link, I read the text of your entry, and assumed that you had summarised Downer in a mildly parodic sense.
But he actually wrote that and put it out under his name.
What a strange, sad little man.
Another weakness in Sham – I -Am’s thinking is that maybe when the voters tell pollsters they don’t want tax cuts but want more services, they just might mean it.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/dollarssense-we-want-to-pay-more-for.html
Excellent. Less than 2 weeks to go now.
Night, all. And may your dreams be rodent-free.
Just get a room full of orang-utans to fill in a heap of postal votes in all the marginals.
‘room full of orang-utans’ – young liberals?
Paisano, well, I was voting for Andrews as world’s meanest, dumbest, and most embittered incompetent Minister before, but that quote from Dolly has really shifted my allegiance. That is world class drivel, tinged with best practice spite.
How does he do it so consistently?
Must be something to do with AWB. Bring on the real royal commission, i say!
Even they would probably vote for Rudd by mistake ShowsOn, oh the humanity lol!.
Ah well it could be worse and if we do lose i doubt it will be a pumping so if we are booted we’ll make it back one day.
Glen @ 12:46:
“Unless they change soon i mean real soon i will have little faith the Tories can pull it off.”
What, a change in leadership? It’s never too late for that, Glen.
99 Glen Says: November 12th, 2007 at 12:46 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
Five Stages of Grief
Are we at three? Or four?
Downer has been sitting in the one job scratching his bum for 11 years and, somehow avoided having to resign in all the disasters such as AWB, Habib’s torture and Iraq.
Glen, trsut me, you need to lose. You have to rebuild the liberal party in the states (esp NSW) and then you’ve got to get a bit of balance back.
Should be ready in about 12 years, I’d say.
Wow fagin let’s reduce our seats to 45 instead of 65 lol, no thankyou ‘unca howie’ will have to take us into battle no matter the cost.
Howie to the troops ‘Damn the Defiant!’
There can only be one choice for the LNP’s campaign song.
‘Rudderless’ by The Lemonheads.
They are so pooned. See ya in hell, Johnny.
The increase in the latest Newspoll and the polls in the last few days, and the narrowing in the couple of Newspolls before that fits with my hypothesis of a lag of about 10 days between daily political events and it showing up in the poll. So this latest Newspoll increase relates to the Abbott stuffups, not to the interest rate increases in the last week. The interest rate increases will show up next week.
Of course as we approach the election the lags should reduce as more people start paying more attention.
HAHAHAHAHA I had the same thought when I wrote that sentence, but I actually meant orang-utans, cos of Howard suring up the Orang-utan vote.
No way! Howard locked up the Orang-utan vote with a vintage piece of wedge politics:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pm-in-fight-for-planet-of-the-apes/2007/11/11/1194766508069.html
My guess is Labor will spend a decade future proofing the economy via clean power and water infrastructure, and then promptly lose an election in a landslide to a politically labotomised Alex Hawke.
Blachlight, simians have feelings too. They are not all Young Liberals.
Pi probably at 4 at about now 5 will be on election night if we lose.
I am pissed off about now you guys im seriously
But u never know ‘unca howie’ could pull off a miracle ‘here’s hoping’.
Newspoll PDF
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
This is off topic but I see this word many times on this blog and it appears today on the SMH letters page. It is the word corflute. The definition is as follows:
Corflute ® is a brand name of a substrate often used for commercial signage or packaging applications and made exclusively by Corex Plastics Australia Pty Ltd. Although Corflute ® is an extruded plastic, its structure is very similar to corrugated cardboard. Because it is not adversely affected by water, oil or many solvents, it can be used for many outdoor applications.
I am somewhat confused as to why people in political blogs (and the msm) decide to use such a little known brand word, maybe someone here can explain this.
Here’s the poll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
VoterBoy, exactly. You read that final paragraph, below it are the words Foreign Minister and you think, even after 11 years, surely this cannot be true?
Please stop saying “unca howie”, it makes you sound like Dr Strangelove:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iesXUFOlWC0
“Mein Fuhrer! I can walk!”
No the campaign song tomorrow will be ‘you gotta have faith’ lol!
You do if you are a Tory and see the opposition with a 12 bounce in primary vote since 2004 lol!
This poll is probably going to knock the wind out of the Coalition campaign.
Unless they get some serious traction from the education policies announced tomorrow (or later today) and/or Labor stuffs up something in the campaign launch, this election is now O-V-E-R!!!
Glen, don’t you think that the 4% for the do nothing nationals is a bit high?
LTEP-the Rat King hasnt got anything left except to throw irresponsbile amounts of mony to the electorate now. The private school rebate is a classic wedge but Rudd is not the class warrior that Latham was. Rudd is just as likely to say me-too or modify his education rebate. Stuff like this though destroys Howards claim to be a competent economic manager. He is totally reckless but his fans in the Tory press never take him to task about it. Andrew Charltons piece in the Sunday Age about how the interest rate argue is all upside down hit the nail on the head.
# 114 ShowsOn Says: November 12th, 2007 at 12:55 am
My guess is Labor will spend seven years sorting out education at all levels, won’t make any noticeable change to IR bar implementing their policy. They’ll make an admirable start on environmental matters, but won’t be able to distance themselves from the manufacturing industry, and will eventually be overtaken by voter-sentiment wanting all green technologies to be adopted faster.
Thus losing the 2020 election to the greens.
Shanahan is a dill. We all know it. He probably does too. But he won’t change because his silly articles get lots of attention. Sure, he gets mostly abuse and mockery from his readers, but as long as people keep reading his articles, whether on paper or online, The Australian gets advertising revenue.
Shanahan is bad for credibility but good for business, at least in the short term.
From what I hear, it seems that Caroline Overington has cottoned on to Shanahan’s tricks and is doing the same with warped articles filled with loads of pro-Howard spin. She gets a lot of negative attention too, but as long as the readers come in droves, it amounts to extra advertising revenue for old Murdoch.
Glen,
You’re game, I’ll give you that. If my team was consistently 10 points down in the polls, I’d be hiding in the hills outside Wagga.
Glen,
half a league, half a league, half a league onward
- is that what you had in mind?
Or what general whatsisname (Bosquet) said subsequently:
‘C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre’
Which is not to over-glamourise the dear leader. Just trying to keep the military metaphors going.
I have to admit I’m worried about Howard’s housing affordability pledge due next week. That is something that could get traction in the last days of the campaign and I’m not sure what Labor could do to counteract it.
Maybe Labor should save a major policy announcement for early next week (or is that an unnecessary risk?)
Have to love the bias from Sky news. The Coalition have taken a ’slight hit’ down 2% to 55/45. ‘Slight’ my ass.
The good thing for Labor is there is still a lot of upside in the numbers. This newspoll has Labor sitting on its trend benchmark, but the latest interest rate rise has still to be properly reflected in voter opinion. And the undecideds have not yet really begun to focus. When these factors kick in, Labor’s vote will likely firm another couple of points.
Guido@16 “[tongue in cheek]Forget about Newspoll. Kevin Rudd is going to Rove next week. He will have to answer the question whom he would turn gay for.”
If his advisors don’t tell him George Clooney they must be sacked.
I hope you have Shannon Noll singing some stupid song.
He’s already said he is voting for the Agrarian Socialist Party of Australia.
That is the sick joke about WorkChoices, we have bloody 15 consecutive quarters of economic growth, and Howard says the I.R. system needs to be changed!
What an economic moron.
If the electorate keeps getting greener then this will just keep Labor in power on preferences a la 1990. I can’t see voters thinking the Coalition will do better on environmental issues, if they did they’d lead that issue now, but they don’t.
# 131 Swing Lowe Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:00 am
Err… they have a major campaign launch on Wednesday.
Well steve, maybe they got back the youth vote with that 4% figure, what with Vaile on a skateboard and wearing his hat backwards.
Labor will just me-too it Swing Lowe if its a good policy, why not they’ve done it every other time and they then got the bloody credit for it lol!
Rudd will give every orangutan a laptop.
Given Howard’s pathetic bleatings over the course of this election, I’d advise the Liberals to choose as their campaign song “Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?”
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=pmQVWH9u8Xo
John can be Jon Moss. This is so Peter can be Boy George, the man he shafted and dumped.
Swing Lowe – it’d have to have pull like a Massey to get any traction on this corpse.
Those guys are dessicated. Stuffed. Kaput.
Yes, that is hubris. I wear it with pride.
Swing Lowe,
Absolutely nothing the Liberals do from here will make the slightest difference. In fact it’s probably been like that for months. As a refresher, consider the article Hugh Mackay wrote the day after the 2004 election:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/10/1097346697099.html?from=storylhs
Brilliant article, especially this bit:
Don’t hold your breath, but one day it will occur to political party strategists that elections are rarely won or lost during election campaigns. The journalists, commentators and spin doctors who have been obsessing about the fine details of the past six weeks simply need to get out more: voters do not change their minds, moment by moment, in response to the thrust and parry of an election campaign; they make quiet judgements in the months – or even years – that precede it.
In fact, the worst time to try to predict an election result is during the sound and fury of a campaign. The TV debate, so comprehensively “won” by Mark Latham? Irrelevant. This or that chance remark or gesture, or a particularly “telling blow” delivered in a policy speech? Irrelevant. A Labor backbencher questioning the fairness of the ALP’s tax proposals? Irrelevant. The millions of dollars squandered on raucous, negative TV commercials? Irrelevant. (If you doubt that, ask any commercial advertiser who understands the role of advertising.)
Thank you linesmen, thank you ball boys
The thing about housing affordability though is that there are limits to what he can do unless he going to offer to build people their houses. Doubling the grant? release more land? Stamp duty is a state issue so theres no much joy there. A real solution would be to build more affordable public housing but no one talks about that these days.
Re tax rebates for private school fees –
Private school fees are totally unregulated. At least the private health funds have to go through an annual charade before the the Mad Monk ticks off another increase well above CPI.
Tax rebates for private school fees will allow the schools to hike their fees to outrageous levels.
The ATO will be spitting chips because they will have to find a massive increase in assessing capacity. They may have to switch staff from compliance.
The Head of Treasury will not be pleased (probably, like the $10b Murray-Darling package, not even consulted).
And the RBA can strap itself in for for a long series of interest rate increases.
The Rodent won’t retire, he will cut and run.
Newspoll says the uncommitted vote is down to 3%. It was still 6% two weeks ago.
Well what a waste of time the DT poll was…
“The poll of more than 200 Bennelong voters shows just a single vote separating Mr Howard and star ALP candidate Maxine McKew, however underlying factors point to a push away from the Prime Minister. Mr Howard was the pick of 87 voters, while Ms McKew is backed by 86 – a razor-thin 50.2 to 49.8 per cent.”
131 His housing affordability bribe will be lost in the deceit and subsequent questioning of where are the nuclear power plants are going. Like workchoices it is what the Liberal Party don’t want to discuss where most of the damage is done. What they announce nobody will buy.
I think it would be better if every laptop had an orangutan. God knows, i need one!
Shanahan and company have cost News Ltd at least one subscription – mine. I’m paying good money for utter nonsense.
Pi,
I know they have their campaign launch on Wednesday.
What I’m saying is that if Howard saves up his housing affordability policies for early next week, should Labor hold back one of their major policy announcements until then so as to deny Howard’s plan any media oxygen?
As I said before, it could be an unnecessary risk given the polls (I keep going back to the Latham forestry policy)
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