Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
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DT poll link
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22741237-5013922,00.html
“However more significantly, the Liberal party is attracting only one in five swinging or first-time voters in the electorate. The other 80 per cent are all going to Labor.
If those undecided votes flow along similar lines Labor would win the seat with more than 54 per cent of the vote.”
Keep the chin up Glen. It makes a better target for a boot!
Sorry, that was mean but its the first thing that springs to mind.
I really think that what the libs, and democracy in Australia needs, is for the Rattus Crew to take a really good kicking at this election. They need to have a situation where the hard right of the party is cleaned out and discredited, and that means JWH losing his seat as well as a lot of the current front bench.
The state branches will have an easier time of it once the feds are out of power and in disarray. They will have a focus again. Cant have Labor in power everywhere they will shout. I would think that at the next round of state elections the libs should win something if they can rebuild for a year or two and find some decent fronts people from somewhere.
The bloodletting after this election on the right of politics will be monumental. For the politics as bloodsport fraternity it will be something not to miss. I suspect that the best place to follow it will be the blogoshpere rather than the MSM as insiders will likely use it to leak stuff and maybe vent a bit in unattributable fashion.
I particularly look foreword to an analysis of “why they lost”, with appropriate stats and graphs from someone like Possum, but i wonder if either art will really learn from it.
“And troublingly for the Government, WorkChoices was named as a major issue more times than any other, including the economy and the environment.
WorkChoices was raised as a top issue by 17 per cent of voters. Less than 2 per cent of these were voting for the Liberals.
By contrast one in four Labor voters said it was the primary reason they were voting for the ALP, many of whom said they were voting Labor for the first time, on this issue alone. This even included card-carrying members of the Liberal Party.”
Dario – well, that rocked us to the socks. MoE on 200 is 6.9%. They shouldn’t have bothered, really.
A monkey has clearly been driving Dolly’s desktop.
Paisano – yes, and it’s name is Alex
“119
zedder Says:
stuff about corflutes”
coming from an alp background, its the word that is used on campaigns and planning. I assume the liberals are the same and thus the word corflute spreads.
CL de Footscray Says: “I think it would be better if every laptop had an orangutan. God knows, i need one!”
Thanks for that CL! Just woke the wife up laughing out loud on this one – no more, no more!
that Lord Downer article leaves me dumbfounded…if you didn’t know the little knobjockey better you would swear it was satire.
I thought this bunch of cretins would implode on the way out but their performance ever since the attempted sinking of Rattus at apec has been amazing.
George – if you had an orangutan, it could wake up the wife for you!
150 Swing Lowe Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:07 am
It’s clear you’re not one of the people that understands this election is already over. It was over six months ago. Nothing is going to change peoples minds, and if Rudd comes out with even a mildly similar policy (and there are better ways of handling education than ‘rebates’) then the libs big money spend will be all but wasted. Not only that, but it’ll be inflationary, and the ALP will be ALL over it.
The libs new education policy only really helps people pay for private schools. It’s clear they’ve completely given up on marginals, and are now targeting ALL of their policies on their core constituents to try and stave off the landslide.
From Labor, I’m semi-expecting HECS like policies for TAFE institutions. Skills development, and non-inflationary. Helping working-class people get good jobs. Exactly the type of thing that will be fantastic for our country.
The election is all over bar the counting.
Perhaps Kevin should say he’d go gay for an orangutan.
Yeah, pretty pathetic in the end. Still, the ‘issues’ stats raised are yet more proof (despite MSM & Liberal denials) that WorkChoices is THE factor. 80% of new voters voting Labor. That’s gotta hurt.
Imacca with respect i don’t think having less than 50 MPs will stop the extreme right (who are a minority of our party) do you know why because the wet liberals will lose their seats and the hard right will keep theirs (on bigger margins) how will this do us any favours?
I could take a loss but only on 5 preconditions we had about 65 seats, Howie wins his seat, Malcolm wins his seat, Brough wins his seat and Keenan wins Stirling, so long as all these happened i would accept a loss on the chin.
If not ill be saying alot of Serenity Nows i can tell you!
Oz pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12nov.pdf
At 55-45 Howard obviously has Rudd right where he wants him! Forget the polls, look at the faces of the Tories, listen to the strain in their voices. They have had it and even senior members of the PP know it. So many of them have been totally invisible on the campaign trail. Where has Julie Bishop been? Ruddock, Andrews? Unsighted, I reckon many of them are running dead!
GLENN MILNE has finally done it! A COMPLETE Costello press release passed off as an opinion article!:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740400-7583,00.html
CL de Footscray Says: “George – if you had an orangutan, it could wake up the wife for you!”
F*k – LOL
If the ALP goes for HECS reductions they will have the high moral ground on education and STILL make the rat’s constituents happy. Tax dedutions for private school fees is a disgrace, to be blune. But it probably is a firewall-friendly strategy.
They are SOOOOOO ro@ted.
Now, who has the best advice on Aussie bubbly? We are of modest means here at Chateau Footscray, so suggestions for budget-ish bubbly of high quality would be welcome …
VoterBoy – an orangutan with a laptop and no HECS debt …
ShowsOn,
That article from Milne is a joke. Most of the negative news from the US is coming out of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, to which Australia has limited exposure.
There’s also the fact that the US is usually negatively affected by rising commodity prices, whilst the opposite is true in Australia.
Milne has truly become a joke with this one (not that he wasn’t one before)…
CL de Footscray Says: “Now, who has the best advice on Aussie bubbly? We are of modest means here at Chateau Footscray, so suggestions for budget-ish bubbly of high quality would be welcome …”
If you want French bubbly, I can guarantee this to be the most amazingly good stuff (technically not champagne) for the price $20 a bottle.
https://www.nicks.com.au/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductId=478820
I think he is going to retire now. He has been working up to using an ENTIRE Costello press release – now that he has done it he has no journalistic goals left to pursue.
168 from Milne [ Look up. That sound you hear may just be the sky falling. The question on November 24 for Australia is who will be there to catch it?]
A one man scare campaign.
Milne using his best chicken-little impersonation.
He’s even quoting him.
That Milne is a character. Apparently the sky IS falling:
‘The Treasurer was at it again on Friday: “Well, I have been warning about the fallout from the US sub-prime,” he told reporters.
“(The crisis) is not over. You have seen in the last couple of weeks the head of Merrill Lynch lose his job, you have seen the head of Citigroup, the world’s largest financial institution, lose his job. ‘
And come Saturday week, his mate Tip will lose HIS job.
Bring it on, please!
George, the way you’ve committed yourself to the cause and to this blog lately. if you had an orangutan, it would be your wife waking it up, not the other way around.! LOL
Ta George, will check it out!
Well CL we know regardless he’ll be having one too many champers on election night with Hendo and Shanahan oh and don’t forget Acker lol!
Fulvio Sammut Says: “George, the way you’ve committed yourself to the cause and to this blog lately. if you had an orangutan, it would be your wife waking it up, not the other way around.! LOL”
You’re not wrong their! LOL. I run an online business that caters mainly to the states, so I’m never 1 meter away from an internet connection… it also helps that I’m an insomniac
3-4 hours of sleep per night does me fine.
Glen, having sufferd numerous defeats (electoral and otherwise) over the years, I can assure you that a nice magnum of the bubbly usually takes the pain away for a minute or two. But rum is quicker.
“Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin: THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the choice as the better economic manager.”
How does he do it…. WEEK AFTER WEEK? HOW?!
Can you imagine being in this guys lounge room on election night?? It would go something like this:
“Howard has lost 10 seats, but he’s catching up…. okay he’s 20 seats down now, but more Australians trust him on Security issues…. okay he’s down 30 seats, but he may win it in the Labor marginals, thats where the real battle is…. oh wait, down 40 seats, but more Australians trust Howard to run the Australian economy…..”
I always thought Shanahan was drunk all the time – it would explain his writing.
Actually, Glen, if you want to get over the pain quickly, have 2 shots of tequila in a row and then have the lemon – effective without the awful aftertaste…
That is true CL, that is true remember the motto.
“Candy is dandy but liquor is quicker” lol
- Willy Wonka (who would be using AWAs for the umpa lumpas) so he has to be a Tory lol!
I’m sorry, I thought the government was marching towards poll parity?
Did I miss something?
Here’s an amusing pastime…
1. Go through the Newspoll PDF and input the past two week’s 2pp into Anthony Green’s calculator. Go to the full calculator.
2. Note those seats who shift from Liberal to Labor as the numbers bounce around. (For example, last week the numbers were 53/47. Going to 55/45 adds Blair, LaTrobe, Herbert, Kalgoorlie, Paterson, McEwan, Cowper, Longman, Sturt, Robertson, Petrie. Gippsland’s on a knife-edge, but that’s just being greedy, so we’ll leave it where it is.)
3. Ring up the sitting MP, and complain very loudly that if that selfish idiot Howard had called the election for last week, before the rates rise, the MP in question might still be likely to have a job in a fortnight.
4. Repeat as necessary. Especially for the Member for Sturt.
Hmm.. rum, buggery and the lash.. tis a good party ya know..
OK, I’ve just worked it out. This is a mass hallucination, right? All that insane stuff from Milne, Shammers, Albrechtson, Howard of the Apes, Dolly – it can’t be true, right? Someone’s been putting Bindis in the water!
Does it get better than this? Tell me truthfully, now.
And yes, if Newspoll be the food of pseph, poll on …
More gold from News Ltd (Bennelong):
“In keeping with the philosophy of the Truck of Truth, we asked: Who are you voting for and why?”
?Que. No need to wonder where the Batmobile of Bullshit is parked.
Keeping Newspoll for Labor ‘as high as possible’.
Posting from different address, William, momentarily.
Only at 7pm on November 24, CL.
Batmobile of Bullshit is the best of the night, IMHO.
CL de Footscray Says: “Howard of the Apes”
You’re killin’ me here! That one deserves abit of Photoshoping with the Planet of the Apes poster….
Well done Glen, you’ve hit stage 3, bargaining.
That’s better then Shanahan’s – Stage 1 – denial.
It’ll better prepare you for what is to come
What’s the point of Howard winning his seat if the Libs lose?
He’ll step down right away, and Maxine will win the by-election.
I agree Glen, that if its only the hard right that keeps its seats then the libs are up the smelly creek and lost for good. But i think they will have more than 50 seats after Nov 24th.
You will know if the libs are going to completely self destruct if they put Bishop in as leader. The only way she will do them any good is if they take the time to groom and develop her without stabbing her in the back as they usually do to women in their senior ranks. Oh, and do some work on the rabbit in headlights expression she gets when fronting a camera.
I think they need Dolly Downer as leader at first since he doesn’t have any credibility anyway, and so has nothing to lose be being front man for the humiliation that will be the new parliamentary session.
As to your conditions, sorry mate i think you in for a bad night.
I reckon the Rattus will lose his seat.
Brough i think is gone, and ALP will win in Stirling.
Malcom Turnbull will win though, as the ALP candidate is crap.
George, I was thinking more of the Tarzan theme. But Ministry of the Apes would work for me!
All the last sets of polls showed the Liberal party losing primary votes. This Newspoll creates a trend. The last three newspoll primary votes for the Liberal party: 38,37,36
Anyone here think that the Ruddster will do for Howard what Hawkey did for Malcolm after 83, and find him a responsible official position that draws on his talents?
And, if so, what might it be?
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