Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
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Is that gonna swing some votes? How desperate can the Liberals get!
Re Livermore: In the recent US Congressional Elections, there was an infamous Republican attack ad on a Democrat whose staff misdialled a number and accidentally connected to a chat site for a nano-second.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=R4m0UzylRvc
Clearly the ‘me-tooers’ of Lib HQ really loved the phone idea, but this was the best they could scrape up. Still, full points for trying.
And on the same theme, here’s where the Liberals are getting their new colour scheme…
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=aI_jr1u_4EE
Ah, Loughnane, you’ve done it again. Plagiarising a failed campaign – now *that’s* what I like to see!
Now we know why the betting markets were moving.
This is a classic from Shanahan
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
As big as expected? I thought the rate rise was to the govts advantage?
And apparently, the election will be about who is the best economic manager – the AEC should be busily reprinting those voting cards and I hear they are recalling parliament for a quick constitutional change!
As I’ve been saying for months, it’s been 55:45 all year. Nothing has changed. Only politics junkies watch every word of the campaign. Real people get on with their lives. This election was decided in May when the Budget failed to lift the Government.
The tragic Shanahan is deserving of our pity. He has to go through the motions, like Monty Python’s black knight (”It’s only a flesh wound”). Much more amusing is the embittered Glen Milne, denied his chance to become PM Costello’s press secretary.
The clear parallel here is Alan Ramsey who was similarly denied with Bill Hayden in 1983. He’s never gotten over it. Neither will Milne.
253 S quotes Shanahan:
“But the impact of the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, and the first during an election campaign, has not been as great as expected. Mr Howard still has a big lead over the Opposition Leader on who voters regard as better able to manage the economy.”
Not as great as expected? Yet according to the Newspoll, and confirmed by Shanahan, the impact has been a 2ppt fall in the Coalition primary vote, a 2ppt fall in the Coalition two-party preferred vote, a 3ppt fall in Howard’s satisfaction rating, a 2ppt rise in Howard’s dissatifaction rating, a 3ppt fall in Howard as preferred PM (and remember that in all of these categories, the Coalition/Howard are already seriously behind Labor/Rudd), and a 2ppt fall in those voters who think Howard is better able to manage the economy.
On every single category, Howard has fallen behind. Roughly translated into seats, Labor will have 92 to the Coalition’s 56. And that is, for what it’s worth a difference of 10 since the previous poll, taken the week before the rate rise.
That’s a swing delivering 10 extra seats for Labor, and 10 fewer for the Coalition, which Dennis Shanahan singularly dismisses as “not as great as expected”.
Could someone please ask Dennis: Having looked at these numbers, and recognising the Coalition’s already seriously low base, what sort of swing would you have described as “great” or “expected”? 5ppt? 10? 15?
Thats a good question. Was this poll conducted before or after the Howard ape advert?
We have to consider the ape vote!!! Over to you Shanahan. I know you’ll find the words.
Morning All! Would someone plse post the link to the nurses ad. Thanks
re Shanahan
It’s the workplace stupid!!
Interest rates for orangutans will always be lower under a Coalition government?
What a lovely set of numbers to wake up to this morning. Shanners as usual spins the poll for the government on the prefered economic manager line. You got to give it to him. He’s going to go down with the ship. I wonder if he’s going to cry on election night?
People like Glen are going to be saying on November 25 “just you wait and see, the polls will come back, Howard can finally make it!!”
This is the point of no return Glen/Isabella/Tabitha/ESJ. Drop the hate and embrace Kevin. You can still save some dignity.
55-45. 48 primary?
That’ll do pig. That’ll do.
The Lib’s are panicking!!! Ads are carpeting the morning shows. The kids watching cartoons are getting the union boogey man in the ads. Might scare them, but i dont think they are the best demographic to target.
Yes TofK, I was surprised how many Liberal Party ads I’ve seen lately. They’re definately far outnumbering the ALP ones. Staying with my politically disinterested sister who just mutes them when they come on.
She thought the Julia Gillard one in her evil sunnies was pretty funny though.
Morning tragics. Lovely set of figures to wake up to. I’m still waiting for the post-budget bounce before we can even have the narrowing. Howard might be right that the people aren’t ‘angry’, but they may just switched off from the government earlier this year.
I find them very B grade. I reckon the interest rate fear one is going to blow back in their face. This was their attack line last election, while promising to keep interest rates at record lows. All they serve to do is make people angry.
The positive ads are pretty bad, in that they dont cut through, just a few policies and not a mention from Howard or Costello.
Shanahan concede? He is waiting for Wenck.
Anyway there will be a narrowing to election day, as Keating narrowed towards Howard in 1996
it will mean little
Also the last minute support the conservatives always get will be cancelled out by the ‘mood for change’ and ‘give Kev a go’ which is overripe in the electorate.
The key poll is preferred PM which Kev wins comfy
it’s too late baby …now it’s too late….
Costello on AM: “very tight contest”
Re Shamawank
Also in 1996 Keating had a big lead over Howard in who could manage the economy.
Howard was seen as a buffoon….dont you remember? Howard is reverting back to the natural order of things, dust to dust buffooon to bufffooon, chimp to orangutan…
I Know we are trying to be objective here, so could everyone look away for a moment.
YAAAAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO,
Thank-you.
Oh on a serious note, Newspoll always underestimate the Green vote, in the last 3 polls they have gone 4, 5, 6 .All these votes will go to the ALP and the ALP primary has increased. Clearly the 53-47 thing was a statistical outliner which was probably 53.49999999 – 46.50000001 and at the end of MOE.
The implications for the Senate are interesting as this is really looking like locking in a unprecedented shift in the balance of power,. To state the obvious this is BIG
just dont tell shana’s that Gerr, he thinks its economic management. Doesnt the government realiase that, if the economy is front and centre, then so is WorkChoices? They are running the campaign by plugging the very policy that people want them out for.
Shanahan, I feel, has backed off a bit in his propaganda spiel today. He has searched the entrails of Newspoll for a gem but hasn’t found much to boost his morale. Maybe next week, he’ll admit the Libs are stuffed.
Costello on AM: on the question of can they win, “In key battleground seats, as the choice gets clearer…”
Loser.
Dario,
It’s obvious that Sky News just does a cursory rewrite of The Australian and its “journalists” do not bother to do any analysis.
Sky had almost the same words at the Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin story that said: THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspol.”
On the point you mention, Shanahan and Franklin said: “According to the Newspoll survey, Coalition support has slipped slightly and satisfaction with Mr Howard has dropped after the rate rise, while Labor has retained its election-winning lead.”
The Broadcasting Tribunal should look at the Sky licence. It should not be allowed to pass of The Australian propaganda in its news programs.
Labor has not really started its advertising blitz yet. So any big policies or dirty tricks Howard might be holding till the final week will be neutralised by Labor’s ads. Also expect to see the ACTU step up their campaign as the big day draws nearer.
They should force the ABC’s editorial guidelines on the commercial news channels. That would shut them up/down.
I saw quite a few Labor ads last night on TV in Sydney.
Rudd has got the advantage: if Rodent announces something supposedly earth shatteringly wonderful, Kev can duplicate it in his launch on Wednesday.
I think Rudd will announce something on reducing the HECS burden.
Shamahan and the MSM can keep propping up Howard all they want, the reality is that he’s 10 points behind, where you don’t want to be with 2 weeks to go.
Rudd could then just counter it by doing one of his ánti-ads’. Talk about being able to cooperate with the states (rather than Howard’s confrontational approach) to improve health, roads, education etc.
Peter Hartcher blasts Howard:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pms-gun-may-explode-in-his-face/2007/11/11/1194766509984.html
I’m seeing some ACTU ads this morning too
My theory on how undecided votes go when their mind is made up is: They normally break 2 to 1 in favour of the trend. I am suggesting that because the poll margin is greater in this instance they will break at a much higher rate, maybe 3 to 1 or 4 to 1. The answer will be seen in the final polls and if they have underestimated the vote.
CL de F sez…”Howard will promise Nirvana. But it won’t matter a damn.”
But wait, there’s more! Much more!
El Rodente’s opening remards at today’s launch:
“My Fellow Australians….here……take my wife!”
Not so implausible really, in the last thirty years he’s sold everybody else out for personal aggrandisement.
How many Lib pollies will be left on the 25th for Shanahack to get a job with?
# 227 ShowsOn Says: November 12th, 2007 at 1:51 am
And be universally derided for such an inflationary measure. The government doesn’t need to be pumping more money into the economy. It increases inflation, and therefore increases interest rates. That’s what’s so good about the home-saver policy. It’s non inflationary.
Good policy is making all TAFE courses available through HECS funding. It is, essentially, an interest-free loan (which the government picks up the tab for) for a long-term investment in productivity. People that couldn’t afford to do TAFE courses, would start to, only to pay back the money when they are able. Essentially, people work harder for an interest-free loan on education, which the government funds.
You get more productive people, an increased skill-set, more skilled workers, it doesn’t pump money into the economy, and mums and dads don’t have to fork out several thousand dollars a year on TAFE expenses. Win-win-win-win-win.
I wonder if the rodent has considered calling a state of emergency, therefore delaying the election for 12 months, no wonder he didn’t ge early and I bet now he is stomping around saying “I told you we should have waited until late Jan.”
Howard has finally worked it out. The voters are now focused on the economy. The only trouble is all they see is rising inflation, rising interest rates and job insecurity from workchoices.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/voters-starting-to-focus-on-economy-pm/20071112-19ht.html
John Musharaf Howard?
Another poll, lots of analyses, thousands of hours spent writing and regurgitating millions of words to say that nothing has changed. They could have simply read a few words of wisdom from Possum and saved us a lot of CO2 and methane emission.
Can you imagine the number of job applications that must be flooding into the Sydney Institute and the Institute for Public Affairs about now?
On a serious note, what will it do to the social fabric of our cities and towns when all of these nasty illiberal staffers, who have been carefully removed from the general population for the last decade, are thrust back into a mainstream world where more than half of the people prefer Kevin07 to the Rodent? Maybe we’ll need to re-open the Nauru facility to keep them ’safe’.
One good reason to vote out Howard: we’re rid of his wife too.
I’m still furious after her attack on Rudd in yesterday’s Sun Herald. Do we find Therese Rein making derogatory remarks about her husband’s opponent? Nope.
Listening to RN this morning Fran Kelly was interviewing someone about bringing people with mental health problems back into the workforce. I thought to myself, “That’s a great idea, but how many columnists can News Limited be expected to employ?”
Are there any monkeys in marginal seats? Howard has at least got the ape vote LOL
Forget our Don Bradman – the former Australian cricket captain JWH most wants to emulate now is Richie Benaud. He could always manage something to turn around a losing position – a bowling change here, a stubborn knock there. A former team mate once said – “If Richie put his hand in a bucket of sh*t, he’d pull out a diamond”.
Roll up your sleeve JWH … and dig deep.
Howard’s campaign launch is on the ABC tomorrow night at 7.30PM. Small problem – it’s up against Dancing With The Stars. I predict even higher record ratings for Channel 7 that night LOL
Seriously: it’ll be interesting to see if more people tune in to watch the Ruddster on Wednesday night.
I know: Howard resurrects Don Bradman,and wins the praise of a greatful nation.
After the Liberals launch party today there will be a narrowing! or Howard still leading in economic credibility (haha) to Rudd!
There is still some silver lining…
/sarcasm
I’m saving all my joy until the 24th/25th… (actually probably for the next 3 years, more fun that way)
289 Dave from Albury says ” what will it do to the social fabric of our cities and towns when all of these nasty illiberal staffers, who have been carefully removed from the general population for the last decade, are thrust back into a mainstream”.
Good point Dave. Perhaps Kevin should make an election promise to provide them counseling services and rehabilitation so that can be eased back into the civil society- some of them might be lured into voting for ALP.
The attack by hyacinth is just desperation of the highest degree. Does she think she has an authorative view on the economy? She is the antithesis of educated opinion! Who do you think is responsible for the huge wine bill??
Re the Libs TV ad campaign. I don’t get to see any TV in the city but from what I’ve heard most are negative (the 70% union/interest rates etc). I know a lot of the bush ads are candidate targeted and friendly.
Are there any positive Lib ads on city TV? If so, roughly what proportion?
Tony r @ 250
Hey is that an for Labor – I love it. It could be a great screen saver.
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