Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
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Ive seen 1 positive lib ad. Its pretty vague, if you vote lib youll vote for these policies, not a mention/image of anyone in the government! It seems that the government is a negative for the government =).
I saw the Hockey team at Crows Nest on Saturday and they had absolutely no mention of Howard – though there was an acknowledgement the candidate was, in fact, a Liberal.
They’re running the “local candidate” line.
A while back, someone was asking about the Senator Online party and what they were all about. Seems the answer is attempted fraud:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/party-founders-deceit/2007/11/11/1194766509987.html
295 re resurrecting Bradman – at the moment we don’t need him. The batting’s going fine.
I think Howard should try to conjure up Menzies rather than Bradman.
Did Samantha join us in this thread?
pi@284, HECS is not interest free mate. If only it were! I believe it is indexed to the CPI, which means in this inflation packed era, where real wages growth is being kept down by our wonderful economic managers, that hecs debt is increasing while one’s ability to pay is not.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/11/1194766506542.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Paul Sheehan seems very upset that the nation is about to vote in Rudd – that’s my only explanation for this article.
Re all the stuff about adds, its to late, the point about throwing money at advertising is this. Which party has increase its primary vote at every state and federal campaign, bar one, for the last ten years, which party has had a combined budget of about $4.98 at last count and which party is about to get the balance of power? Policies, long term message and consistency over spin?
They do suffer from a narrowing of their vote at the end of many campaigns but that is not because of the bretherin(Can’t spell it and can’t be bothered to find it), but more to do with people flurting with them then going back to their safety net. Then at the next election they do, etc etc
Rates Analyst: if the Liberals are having to campaign in Crows Nest, “that den of socialism”, Hockey must be getting the shits!
We’re a radical lot on the Lower North Shore we are…..
Hockey seemed friendly but remarkably disengaged. He was standing near me for about 20 minutes and spoke only to what appeared to be dyed-in-the-wool Liberals.
In contrast, everyone wants to say hello to Mike….
Pathological Logic Says: @141
November 12th, 2007 at 1:05 am
Path Logic’s quote from Hugh McKay is the most salient, so thanks PL.
Last Friday on Skynews Agenda (strangely a genuinely balanced program), McKay said his social research groups show a significant mood for change compared to 2004. Significantly baby boomers are returning to their idealistic 1960’s values, a prime one of which was the revolution in female equality and status (see Deputy Prime Minister Gilliard, Julia). Moreove, baby boomers are very worried about the job security and conditions of employment for their children or grandchildren.
Of course, this morning’s Skynews regular news bulletin kept up its Team Howard propaganda effort by introducing the Newspoll result as “More Work to Do. PM slips slightly in latest Poll”. Then goes with a Dorothy Dixer interview with PM in Cricket jersey (what else, we’re kicking arse on those uppity Sri Lankans, so who else would be responsible for our victory but the PM?) stressing how far ahead Team Howard is in the poll as better economic managers to meet the new challenges which have popped up in the past week since the interest rate rise.
It works with their own demographic with Skynews usual online poll showing its viewers still think Team Howard can win by 60-40%. Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your audience, but what would I know?
Whats this? Some people think Shanahan will concede next week?
Never!!!
I think on the 26th November he will use the line ‘its too close to call as there are still xxxx postal votes outstanding”.
or perhaps “Ruddslide on back of IR scare campaign”……… can’t wait
Are they going to have the Campaign Launches on free to air or just on sky?
#154
I follow online polls a bit for their interest value. The polls conducted by radio 2GB at 2gb.com are interesting for their predictably conservative results. On any political question, the results will predictably favour Liberal by at least 2 to 1.
There is only one exception I can remember: a poll about WorkChoices. The question was “Are you in favour of WorkChoices”. The results come in at around 67% in the negative . A really remarkable result at what is otherwise a site 100% reliable for conservative consensus.
http://2gb.com/index.php?option=com_yoursay&id=96&task=view&Itemid=173
When even the most rusted-on Liberals do not approve of WorkChoices, it is clear it is a lemon.
No election campaign of any sort in Berowra(Sydney’s North Shore). Just a couple of brochures in the letter box from Ruddock, zilch from Labor.
No politicians of any sort at the local shopping centre or the railway stations.
The ALP is obviously putting all its money into neighbouring Bennelong.
It might seem like a fine distinction, Dogford, but interest is not the same thing as indexation. The fact that wages don’t keep pace with inflation is a separate issue.
Indexation is the Government’s way of making sure it doesn’t get ripped off by inflation.
Well having just seen this thread, hats off to Possum. The 2% shift, if accurate, sits nicely with his recent interest rates/voting trend analysis, particulalry considering that a second rise has been telegraphed. If people are reacting to both, Possum you are pretty much spot on. Well done.
And of course, looking forward to seeing who stumps up on Lateline tonight to explain this away.
Why are the campaign launches at the end of the campaign?
It’s like David Hicks and Guantanamo Bay. First spend time in jail, then when that is nearly over, have a trial and sentence.
Hmmm econocrat, I’m guessing you are right by definition but ‘interest rates’ particularly in this election aren’t reported or set in inflation adjusted terms, is the fact that HECS is indexed retrospectively not charged interest up front?
Also dogford’s point about non-wage inflation and HECS is interesting when I still had a HECS debt my income rose very steadily so it was never an issue for me, but it is an interesting point.
Rates Analyst @ 307
Sheahan has form; he has written quite ione-sided stuff about “Lebanese gangs” after the rape cases.
On the other hand, I saw him give a very balanced intro to Jared Diamond (author of “Collapse”).
I do think he’s his own man though – not like the fools at the GG.
Because up until the official launches, party staffers are paid by the taxpayer. After the launches they are paid by the parties themselves.
PM won’t be there to keep promises: Rudd:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/PM-wont-be-there-to-keep-promises-Rudd/2007/11/12/1194766543471.html
Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd says any policy promises John Howard makes at Monday’s coalition campaign launch are irrelevant because the prime minister won’t be around to take responsibility for them.
This stuff about the PM being unlucky to lose if the economy is going well really is nonsense. Howard’s problem (congenital defect) is that he does not, and never did, care about equity. If the cake is growing but being less equally sliced, a lot of people can still be worse off. Witness Generations X and Y. They’ll be lucky to own homes before they’re 60.
Overall wages are growing faster than CPI. This is true now and is almost always true.
However, some sectors are experiencing wage reductions due to a certain Government policy – no prizes for WORKing out which from a CHOICE of policies!!!
So while the overall argument about HECS, wages and inflation is wrong on average – there are significant minorities who will be hurting badly.
313 Are they going to have the Campaign Launches on free to air or just on sky?
No Glen the sky has fallen for the Liberals. They will have to hold the launch on a stage in Brisbane this time, a city they have avoided for 12 years and suddenly it seems important to them. It is nearer to Bribie Island too, so their Nuclear Power Policy should be given the prominence it deserves.
Glen,
I think the launches are on ABC tv. Certainly they are on Newsradio. Not sure about commercial channels.
What time is the Liberal party Wake/launch on sky?
So those free to air channels are going to play re-runs of reject US shows instead of us seeing what the Libs have to offer wtf has happened to this country if this is the case!
Burgey if the ABC are going to put on the Bill instead of the launch I’m going to but a nut i am here to tell you, even more so if they televise Labor’s launch on wednesday but not ours.
I for one want to hear Howie’s final major speech before the 24th and a probably but not inevitable defeat.
It wont be a “speech’ but another begging, pleading like on the 7.30 Report months back.
Too late for General Wenck now, the only hope is that Colonel Stauffenberg remembers his briefcase.
In answer to your question Glen, please review the previous 11 years of federal governance. This is apparently called being “relaxed and comfortable”.
Glen: Howard’s campaign launch is on Tuesday 7.30PM ABC TV.
Why isn’t it on tonight? Because they don’t want to bump off Australian Story?
And also a Four Corners program tonight at 8.30 PM on the election/swinging voters.
328 So those free to air channels are going to play re-runs of reject US shows instead of us seeing what the Libs have to offer wtf has happened to this country if this is the case!
The free to air channels have finally got their priorities right and realise the Libs have got nothing to offer outside of Nuclear power plants.
Costello is saying the Coalition is going to help the young into housing. He mentions the $7K first home buyers grant, so I’m thinking they might extend that to being $10K for under 30s. Why? Because the Coalition’s only idea are the middle class welfare, so why not throw more money out. All this would do is help increase prices.
At least Rudd is tying his plans to savings, but I think he could of gone further by tying the first home buyers grant to the savings plan like putting a percentage of the grant in to the buyer’s fund (so the fund can make money straight away). Also the grant should be spent on funding the house not used for going to fill the house with huge plasma tvs and other ‘aspirational goods’.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22742982-1702,00.html
I don’t think we’ve heard the last of Labor’s plans either, but it will be interesting to see what the Coalition does.
Sorry if someone else posted it but there’s an interesting article in the CM referrign to the fact that most voters have “tuned out” of the campaign.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22741471-5013650,00.html
After the ludicrously over-long “phoney war” and then a long six week campaign as well, who can blame them? What new policy ideas have we really seen anyway?
The same CM article also pointed out that Howard still has “$10 billion left to spend”. Unless he comes up with something extraordinary, I would say to Rudd, don’t spend it all! Put $5 billion into Health and Education, then underspend the government by leaving $5 billion or more untouched, and take the moral high ground that you are not feeding inflation as badly as Howard is.
Why would the commercial networks drop Dancing With The Stars or Australian Idol for John Howard?
Socrates: Rudd has already under-spent the government by a tune of $4b, so that would give Rudd $14b. I’m sure Rudd will still come in under the government, but I feel the Wednesday will have some big budget items in housing, education and health.
More possible bad news for Howard from the RBA today.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2087727.htm
Don’t worry, Rudd has got some major stuff to announce on Wednesday.
Labor has kept its powder dry until now!
Have you noticed howard’s mourning walks are always on the flat?
Has he got a problem walking uphill?
(of course for the next 2 weeks he’s going to have to swim uphill.)
Steve at 338.
The RBA will annonce their new forecasts for inflation over the medium term. They are already at 3%. Look for the new forecasts.
If the forecast is >3% the RBA is saying that they will need to raise rates further. 3.25 probably means that they will raise rates in Feb. 3.5% means they are considering raising rates again in December.
@335
Socrates Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Sorry if someone else posted it but there’s an interesting article in the CM referrign to the fact that most voters have “tuned out” of the campaign.
Good reminder, Soc.
Even Nick Greiner on Skynews Agenda thinks that Team Howard need a bold “beacon” policy now to break the flat line of polls all year. He said that Rudd is correctly taking a safe hands, no risk, strategy which is usually the one governments are able to run.
Of course, Greiner also suggests that Team Howard hit Labor hard on its “lack of economic credentials to keep inflation and interest rates from rising”, but don’t continue focus on past Labor Governments. A Labor Senate candidate, Arbib, rebutted by saying that this fear campaign has already been done to death, but he still reckons the result will be a cliff hanger due to the numerous huge government bribes in marginal seats which Labor can’t possibly match. So, Arbib is on the same page with a fair amount of analysis in here this past month.
Davefrom Albury@289
Talk about rats off a sinking ship – I had the misfortune recently to encounter a staffer from Count Ruddockula’s office. He outlined his imminent plans to p*ss off to Oxford to do his MBA.
And this was before the election had even been called.
The RBA statement should be up at 11:30
http://www.rba.gov.au/
“Count Ruddockula”
BAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!
Suunyboy@340, and push excrement up that hill too!
comicstriphero
Frightful. They’ll let any old riff-raff into Oxford these days …
Looks like as with everthing the Liberal Party does we run a bad last compared with the paid maternity leave of other nations. Looks like another case of too little too late.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-to-woo-mums-with-paid-leave/2007/11/10/1194724808244.html
Rudd backs Whitlam’s and Fraser’s joint letter in regards to ministerial responsibility. The article mention Rudd also hints at a far wider approach to accountability since he says:
I emailed Senator Wong earlier this year asking for her to outline Labor’s plan on restoring public accountability. It was a quite a detailed response. I certainly do hope it’s not just a hot air response.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/12/2087887.htm
Hemingway (311) says re Sky news;
“Seems like a poor business plan to write off 40% of your audience, but what would I know?”
Rupert might wake up one day that there are abount 20% of Australians who would sign up to pay TV in a flash if it wasn’t continuously chanelling ultra right wing claptrap.
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