Sky News reports:
On a two party preferred basis, Labor’s support is up two per cent to 55 and the Coalition’s is down from 47 to 45 per cent. The survey, published in The Australian, shows the Coalition has lost two points in the primary vote down to 40 per cent, while Labor remains steady at 48.
UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. John Howard is down 3 per cent on both performance satisfaction and better prime minister.
558 Comments
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Why should TV or radio stations broadcast the campaign launches anyway?
These days, they’re just speeches near the end of the campaign. They are not policy launches, and the parties insult the voters by having the debate before the campaign launch (I acknowledge that was Howard’s decision, but don’t hold your breath for a future Labor leader to change the practice).
The ABC, because of its election editorial guidelines, would have a bit of a problem broadcasting both launches live. They have to give equal time to both sides, and that can’t be guaranteed without cutting off the second broadcast when it reaches the length of the first. And that would bring numerous listener complaints.
Better to edit both speeches and replay them.
Personally, I couldn’t be bothered watching a launch that’s so stage-managed, before invited guests, no spontaneity, at the end of the campaign rather than at the beginning.
I think the media should offer to broadcast campaign launches if they’re early in the campaign, and contain the main promises from the parties. Otherwise, the “launches” should just be treated like any other item of campaign news, not as anything major.
Seeing The Age story that Howard is telegraphing measures on housing affordability, he (with uncharacteristic honesty) points out the problem: if house prices go down existing owners are worse off, while if they stay high, the young can’t get started. So…
Is inflation the solution? I know it is anethma to monetarists, but it can be very difficult to adjust some prices in a low inflation economy. Some things, notably wages adn fixed asset prices, are “downwards sticky”. So could some inflation alow this problem to more quickly solve itself? I’m not suggesting a return to the 70s, but is there a case that a broader inflation band than the Reserve bank’s target may be desirable? Of course, IMO other changes are also needed, liek a gradual phase out/down of negative gearing, and a gradual phase in/up of deductions for mortgagfe payments. (Labor should remind people that a lot of this mess (house prices) started after the governments quite unneccesary changes to investment tax rules around 1999/2000). Any economists care to comment?
I’ve had this exchange between Kerry O’Brien, John Stirton and Sol Lebovic rattling around in my head for the past month:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2063356.htm
(from 18 October 07)
Costello’s DNA examined?
Campaigning in Adelaide, Labor leader Kevin Rudd set the scene for the hard-hitting anti-WorkChoices campaign by declaring the laws were bad for families and a “bureaucratic nightmare”.
“Mr Costello is not believable when he says he won’t take WorkChoices further,” he said. “It’s part of Mr Costello’s DNA”.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/work-laws-to-get-worse-labor-warns/2007/11/10/1194724808250.html
Rattus,
I’m sure that’s a fair estimate, including a lot of churn offs.
After the election, I am writing Skynews to explain in non-emotive language why they are complete dills to back either side of politics. FoxNews in American can get away with it because it’s a niche market for Republican voters out of 250+ channels, including other 24 hour news alternatives in CNN, MSNBC etc. Here, as the only 24 hour channel, Skynews’ incessant cheerleading for Team Howard makes no sense, not to mention trashing the credibility of its news presenters, although some seem very delighted with being Howard spin doctors.
Using inflation as a policy tool is very dangerous.
While you are correct that the easiest way to bring house prices into line on about a 5Y horizon is to let inflatino run at 4% for a while, the problem is how do you turn it off? You could get runaway inflation which does all sorts of other damage.
The tax thing is a real problem - but very hard to change now. Some people have spent hundreds of thousands (if not millions) based on the rules being written as they are. It would be very hard to change them. You’d need to do it gradually - maybe annonce that starting in 5Y time the deductibility drops by 5% or 10% per year. Something like that.
Rattus and Hemmingway,
I agree. I’d love to see all the cricket on Sky, but I refuse to give my money to that embarrasement to journalism, even though I have it to spend.
In fact, I probably spend more time reading news websites and watching my favourite shows on DVDF rather than free to air TV now as well, so they (TV news journalists) are really killing their own market, with their focus on image and boss-appeasement, and dumbing down of both presenters and content.
Comicstriphero @353
Yep, I remember Sol’s comment, but didn’t Stirton state that he reckons for this election whatever the polls turned up after 3 weeks would be very close to the final result? I’ll be interested to hear if you recollect Stirton’s comment the way I do.
How popular is Graham Edwards In WA, enough to swing a seat
By my calculations, the Rodent has spent $240M per day this campaign, $10M every hour. Economically responsible? As John Elliot would say “Pig’s arse!” And what a surprise, there’s more to come. He would happily bankrupt our country to get re-elected.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743067-601,00.html
Rates Analyst,
Well IMO we have to pursue one or the other of those options, otherwise we are goign to see a big wage break-out no matter who is in charge. I work with a lot of bright 20 somethings who are clearly impatient with the current situation, and clearly all looking to progress their pay well above the current average by the time they are 30. In the current market they will probably get it. If they all do that, fairly obviously, we will see wage inflation. We have faced tougher tax reform challenges in theast and met them. As a minimum, IMO, we have to take theind out of the sales of thenvestment property market, to stop the situation getting worse.
Just looked up last elections stats. The Rodent spent at the rate of $200M per minute in that campaign launch. And people are just not buying it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22740892-5013964,00.html
The way to solve the housing crisis is something that Possum already has talked about. The government needs to be address negative gearing.
The solution is to put grandfather clauses to existing negatively geared properties, and then change the policy so that it only applies to certain types (read values) of properties. The question is one of complexity. To truly solve it you’d have a sliding scale of gearing protection where bands of support are offered. But that WOULD make it a complex law, so might get turfed just on principle.
But 100% negative gearing on properties under 15 years old, and no negative gearing for any portion above a certain amount on properties valued above 500k would mean that new houses would be built, and existing houses would gradually reduce over time.
You can’t just remove negative gearing. Too many people would be hurt. But you can change the law so that the tax break exists to support property investment where it needs to be invested. This is on par with what just about every other country does with this tax break. Only Australia, through the howard government, does it in such a blanket way.
The Howard governments tax breaks in negative gearing are the reason we have a housing crisis.
Dennis said Howard was steaming
That Rudd was in for a creaming
He spoke of the narrowing
We thought it was harrowing
Possum proved he was dreaming.
Not entirely sure what you’re postulating here. Indexation is the means by which the Government maintains the value of its original investment in the student. Otherwise, thanks to inflation, the HECS debt of $5,000 now will be worth substantially less in - say - 2012 dollar terms.
Commercial loan agreements charge an interest rate, which includes the “real” (ie inflation-free) interest rate (taken to be roughly equivalent to the RBA’ cash rate), an inflation component, and a profit component. Commercial interest rates necessarily involve the lender making a profit, indexation does not.
Indexation merely keeps the value of something (eg HECS debt) constant in the face of rising inflation. If the Government did not index HECS debts, then former students would effectively be profiting by deferring their debt. This would be inequitable for those students who paid up front, not to mention taxpayers generally - their investment in that student will otherwise be devalued over time.
Please don’t think I’m harping on this distinction, I’m just responding to your post - I’ve had this whole indexation/interest/HECS discussion before elsewhere, and it irks me.
Note: I know that modern HECS debts are substantially more than $5000!!
lol.
I put the negative gearing discussion in a thread by itself on ozpolitics…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=27910#p27910
The narrowing is really happening only 12 days left, this is the only narrowing I can see.
But what happens if there is a widening?
Will at 349, if you still have Penny Wong’s e-mail, would you consider forwarding it to me at cgswans@gmail.com ? I’d be interested to see what she had to say.
It’s a bit ridiculous, isn’t it?
Surely just a specified split, or capped split in operation from the dissolution of parliament would be more rational.
Not that I care that much.
Hemmingway @ 358 - I think you are right. It seemed to me to be John Stirton’s argument that if the Coalition hadn’t started making significant headway by the half-way mark of the campaign, they were stuffed.
Of course, Stirton was sitting on relatively good polling results for the Coalition that he was going to release the next day (iirc)…
So Stirton = must start making headway by week 3 or stuffed; and
Lebovic = must be making headway in the last part of the campaign or stuffed.
Kerry should have them back on and get them to reflect on these early predictions.
Thanks Econocrat… I’m having two policy discussions at the same time. Nice to have someone else answer the HECS question.
It IS an interest-free loan, you just don’t have inflation protection. True, that would present an issue if your wage was going backwards, but one would think that the entire reason you’re doing a TAFE course, would be to increase your skills, so you can get a better job, so you can earn more money.
Implementing a policy that helps people earn more money being more productive using government funds to offset the cost to the voter is exactly the type of thing governments should be doing. And payment of HECS debt only comes out of your paycheck if you earn over a threshold anyway.
Hell… I’d prefer free… but if HECS was available on TAFE courses, it would be a visionary policy. Good for everyone.
I’ve created an ozpolitics thread in policy…
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=27913#p27913
adl (359) Graham Edwards has always been a popular bloke, including stints as a state govt minister before he switched to Canberra. He’s an affable Aussie type without an ounce of self-pity for his war wounds, and he’s well-known for his tenacity and hard work in the electorate. As such, his ‘personal percentage’ might be higher than for the average candidate. Thankfully the ALP has another strong candidate to replace him and hopefully the ‘It’s Time’ wave will help sweep her into Cowan.
The COW’s surge in Iraq still showing no signs of working.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1638
OK, Im going out on another *whacky theory* limb here, but bear with me: maybe, just maybe, Dennis, the disjunction between “voting intention” and “best economic manager” suggests the economy is NOT the only vote determining issue this time.
Looks like Howard is about to send the Pork-O-Meter off the dial:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22743067-601,00.html
“Coalition can afford to spend: PM”
I recently paid off my HECS (YAY!) and I’m glad I’m not paying an extra 8% tax, I still have my SFSS loans though but that is only 4%. The issue I have with HECS is not that it exists, but how earning a few dollars more can suddenly mean you have a $1000 tax bill. It’s not a progressive system like the normal tax system, it’s as soon as you hit the new bracket you’re supposed to have paid that all year. A few years ago I was like $1/m short of going in to the next bracket, while I did have tax deductions it didn’t help I had a lump sum payout when I left my job causing me to go way in to the next bracket.
When the coalition got in in 96, the first thing they did was basically double how much new students would have to pay. It made HECS a disincentive to study.
I think the whole higher education system needs an overhaul, and given the Libs ‘user pay’ mentality I think Labor is the only one to fix it.
Charlie @ 369: She sent me a formal letter, though I will summarise it for you and send you an email in the next day or so.
Oh Dear! Now even the conservative economists and Workchoice supporters have abandoned ship. Man the liferafts!
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/why_a_perfectly_reasonable/
Now Lefty, do you own Newspoll? Hmm?
Comicstriphero @371:
“So Stirton = must start making headway by week 3 or stuffed; and
Lebovic = must be making headway in the last part of the campaign or stuffed.
Kerry should have them back on and get them to reflect on these early
predictions.”
Muchas Gracias, Hero. No doubt Kerry will be getting them on, but will he be too polite to ask them about their early forecasts?
After hearing the Newspoll chief who replaced Lebovic on television spouting Team Howard propaganda points, there’s no doubt in my mind that Newspoll’s 2 Party Preferred allocation formula is flawed, if not outright shonky. However, I assume the Primary vote tally ( ALP rock solid at 47,48) is accurate.
The RBA - inflation a problem, but slowly moderating. The RBA will be attentive to domestic demand, or, in other words, beware of politicians and promises to spend, spend, spend!
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/StatementsOnMonetaryPolicy/statement_on_monetary_1107.html
In the short term, as noted, both headline and underlying inflation are likely to exceed 3 per cent on a year-ended basis as a result of high CPI outcomes that have already occurred. Looking further ahead, and taking into account the recent monetary policy decisions along with other factors such as the higher exchange rate and the expected moderation in global demand, the Bank projects that inflation will settle at a rate a little below 3 per cent over the next two years. Somewhat lower outcomes could eventuate if global economic conditions prove to be weaker than expected, which might occur if there were further significant disturbances in global financial markets. But it is also possible at this stage of a long economic expansion that inflation will be more difficult to contain, particularly if domestic demand does not moderate.
The pollsters should at least provide a state breakdown of the party support. Just like temperature it is not all the same average across the country. Swings are not uniform. Some states will swing at different frequency/rate. A State breakdown will help decide which seats are likely to go. i expect 3-4 in Victoria.
Here comes the pork, here comes the pork,
and I say it’s all right
Little darlings, it’s been a long cold lonely campaign
Little darlings, it feels like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork
and Pier’s says it will be all right
Little darlings, the snouts are returning to the troughs
Little darlings, it seems like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork
and Glenn say it will be all right
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Pork, pork, pork, here it comes…
Little darlings, I feel that ship is slowly sinking
Little darlings, it seems like years that Rudd’s been here
But here comes the pork, here comes the pork,
and Sol says it will be all right
It’s all right
375 Lefty E- Could not agree more! The MSM’s obsession with the economy, which is largely out of the Governments hands anyway, bemuses me. I’m not sure if it’s because it’s the only area the Rodent is ahead in or if they genuinely believe it. In poll after poll, the voting public show that there are other more important issues.
PI@372
Don’t discount the effects of SerfChoices and targetted Visas. These are policy tools which in recent years have been utilised to drive down wages and salaries in particular sectors. Based on the myth that certain skills are in short supply. Skills are only in short supply based on costs - and Labor should be careful how they approach this issue. A lot of people are looking to Labor to reverse the downward pressure on their wages.
BV Dead right. The weasel’s going to make private school fees tax deductible. That is subsidising bankers and barristers’ kids to attend elite private schools. It has the capacity to win some votes. What on earth is this country coming to
294,
Howard Hater, if the broadcasts are on in the evening, it will be a repeat of the affair. The real deal is on 2pm each day (libs Monday labor Wednesday).
Channel 9 said that they were showing it live so supposedly if the cricket goes past 2pm locally for us, 1pm for you, that means they will break away from the cricket.
48% Labor and 40% Coalition at this stage of the campaign really means it’s all over.
John Howard made two devastating mistakes recently - first calling the election after 3rd November when Blind Freddy could see the risk of an interest rate rise and then apologising/not apologising for it.
Nothing can save him now except a major terrorist strike, a nuclear attack on Iran or for Pakistan to launch nuclear missiles.
I saw the Labor ad for the first time last night on SBS and then on 10 in which the woman with the green bag says John Howard has lost her. It’s a devastating ad and encapsulates virtually everything in one statement. It’s particularly powerful where she turns away at the end.
She’s obviously Labor’s key demographic.
One of the things you learn in advertising is that your softest market is the best one to go for.
Interesting that the ad didn’t say VOTE LABOR.
Where do people go when they are turned off John Howard? Either to Labor or the Greens or perhaps another minor.
Most of the Greens and other votes will come back via preferences.
It’s a very clever ad which gets you in from the first moment.
My wife thought it was a Greens ad at first, presumably from the green bag in the background.
A very large number of people are going to see that and say “yes that’s how I feel”. It reinforces what they have already been thinking.
The Coalition ads look frankly old fashioned and tired. I suppose that’s all the have to work with.
I think so Damien - but its a pitch more in the “base shoring” than “swinger converting” arena.
I think ts a bit late for anything to really shift the result.
If he he’s going to subsidise private schools (even more) this will also be yet another desperate attempt at a wedge. What a pathetic little man he is.
These schools are literally rolling in money. The school near where I live is demolishing 11 heritage listed houses to build an olympic-sized swimming pool and gymnasium, with my money!
More childcare rabbits from a rat’s hat.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/11/12/the-debate-of-all-mothers-and-fathers/
I wonder what the viewer numbers will be for the party launches. Considering the length of the campaign so far and the grade of nonsense that has issued from Howard, you’d expect an historic low level of viewer interest, at least in the Liberal launch. Maybe Rudd will achieve better numbers. Does anyone know if these stats will be published?
Diogenes
I’m not sure if the MSM is so much “obsessed” with the economy or simply finds it a convenient low-cost way to fill out a thirty minute news bulletin with fewer and fewer journalists. You don’t even have to do it yourself any more. Just cross to ComSec for a market wrap, because there is nothing to economics besides the market. It probably won’e even cost you anything - who knows, they might even pay for it as an add. (and Comsec and their kin, being share salesmen, will always give you impartial advice on whether or not to buy shares, LOL).
In short, if the MSM were really obsessed with economics, they would really report it, not reduce it to some product placement and superficial analysis. They just want to look like they know economics. AFR, Alan Kohler and Ross Gittens besides, there are not many I bother with any more.
if red kezza has lebovic and stirton back on, i’ll have to face away from the screen. yes, i know we can’t all look like models…
‘Metooism’ for Rudd but ‘Direct assault’ when Howard uses the same tactic?
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/howards-education-bluster-a-disingenuous-bit-of-me-tooism/
What about forgiving a proportion of HECS debts for those who undertake post graduate emmployment in socially “desirable” areas.. eg rural post for medicos.. govt schools for teachers… plus extend HECS to TAFEs, with similar attenuation for desired post training employment?
matbe also change the proportion of future HECS awards so that desired careers (EG Engineering, medicine, teaching, nursing) become more attractive.
385
Diogenes Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 11:46 am
375 Lefty E- Could not agree more! The MSM’s obsession with the economy, which is largely out of the Governments hands anyway, bemuses me. I’m not sure if it’s because it’s the only area the Rodent is ahead in or if they genuinely believe it. In poll after poll, the voting public show that there are other more important issues.
…
You’re right Diogenes. As Possum has pointed out, using the leaked crosby/textor research, while the coalition score well on macro-economic management, this issue has become a very weak driver of opinion. The coalition are doing their best to raise the prominence of this issue, but seemingly are not getting far. In any case, this is a dangerous game for the Liberals because it invokes discussion of the triple-headed monster: excessive spendng, inflation and rising interest rates. It is as likely to cost as win votes, except among their true-believers.
Getting back to an earlier thread about Joe Hockey campaigning in Crows Nest. I’ve seen Mike Bailey three times around the place, and haven’t seen Joe anywhere.
By the way, I asked Mike about environmental and tax policy (this was some weeks ago) and the weatherman was keeping things pretty close to his chest. All he really had, basically, was a hand shake and a smile.
He needs a swing of 10%, but my forecast is Mike will come pretty close.
Socrates, re Economics in the MSM,
Kenneth Davidson in the Age usually has a rational point of view,
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