The Prime Minister’s electorate of Bennelong covers the northern shore of the Parramatta River from Gladesville west to Ermington, extending north through Denistone and Ryde to Epping. While the Ryde area has leaned to Labor in the post-war era, riverside suburbs to the south and east have made Bennelong a fairly safe seat for the Liberals since its creation in 1949. In this time it has had two members, Sir John Cramer until 1974 and John Howard thereafter. The narrowest Liberal margins were 0.8 per cent at the 1961 election, 2.4 per cent in 1972, 4.5 per cent in 1974 (when Howard was elected) and 3.2 per cent in 1993. However, redistributions and demographic changes have steadily weakened the Liberals’ position. When John Howard became member, the electorate extended east through Lane Cove to Chatswood and the Howard family abode in Wollstonecraft. This area was progressively lost as the electorate was redrawn with the expansion of parliament in 1984, the abolition of Dundas to the west in 1993 and most recently with the loss of a New South Wales seat going into the current election. Bennelong has taken on its share of the burden by absorbing Labor-voting Ermington and Melrose Park, previously in Parramatta, along with a smaller Liberal-voting area in Beecroft from Mitchell to the north. The three redistributions respectively cut the Liberal margin by 2.9 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent.
|
| Bennelong two-party booth votes from 2004, with suburbs colour-coded to show the proportion of residents whose dwellings are being purchsed. The electorate-wide figure is 28.0 per cent compared with 32.2 per cent nationally. |
The other major change in Bennelong has been an influx of immigrants from China, Hong Kong and Korea, with the electorate ranking second only to safe Labor Watson for number of persons born in China. In holding the line against this influx, John Howard has found himself the only Liberal MP holding a seat in the top 20 list for non-English speakers. As indicated on the map below, the Asian communities are most heavily concentrated around Epping, Eastwood and Marsfield in the electorate’s centre and north, where particularly big swings to Labor were recorded in 2004. In the wake of Kevin Rudd’s show-stopping performance at APEC, George Megalogenis of The Australian wrote of “an increasing confidence in Labor ranks, and a sense of dread within the Government, that many of Bennelong’s more recent Chinese arrivals are favourably disposed to Rudd”. Megalogenis had earlier written of Labor research detailing the seat’s complex ethnic mix: This decade Bennelong has seen a rapid influx of new, mostly Asian migrants with the suburb of Eastwood transformed into a vibrant Korean community. Chatswood – split between the divisions of Bradfield and North Sydney – is another suburb on the north shore where there has been a concentration of new migrants in recent years. In Chatswood these migrants are mostly Chinese and Japanese … It’s not the case that the resulting new electors are ALP voters – at the last federal election they broke slightly in favour of the Libs, but they have replaced generally WASPs, who tended to break two to one against the ALP.
More broadly, the electorate is highly sensitive to economic concerns, with George Megalogenis of The Australian placing it high on a list of seats beset by “the double whammy of higher interest rates and capital loss”.
|
| Bennelong booth swings from 2004, with suburbs colour-coded to show the proportion of residents who speak Cantonese, Mandarin or Korean. The electorate-wide figure is 17.6 per cent compared with 2.6 per cent nationally. |
Talk of a Howard defeat first emerged from the realms of idle speculation at the 2004 election, when anti-Iraq war activists made the electorate the focus of their “Not Happy John” campaign. Office of National Assessments whistleblower Andrew Wilkie ran against Howard as the candidate of the Greens, prompting talk that he might secure Howard’s defeat either directly or by feeding preferences to Labor’s Nicole Campbell. Wilkie ultimately finished well to the rear of Campbell with 16.4 per cent of the vote, with Howard going untroubled on 49.9 per cent. The two-party margin was nonetheless shaved from 7.8 per cent to an uncomfortable 4.3 per cent, a swing not unlike those in the Liberals’ other inner Sydney seats of North Sydney and Wentworth. This time the high-profile candidate comes from the Labor camp, in the person of veteran ABC political journalist Maxine McKew. Talk of McKew entering Labor politics first emerged in 2001, when party heavyweights proposed moving Julia Irwin to the state upper house so McKew could be accommodated in Fowler. Speculation reached a new pitch when McKew resigned from the ABC last December without announcing plans for her future. The bombshell announcement that she would run in Bennelong came in February, a decision influenced by the calculations of McKew’s partner of 17 years, former Labor national secretary Bob Hogg. Hogg was recenty quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian saying the plan was preferable to taking a safe seat as it would leave McKew “not owing any group or sub-group or individual for the privilege of being the candidate”.
|
| Two-party vote recorded in Bennelong booths at the March state election. Two-party figures were not available from the electorate of Epping, so estimates have been derived from upper house figures. Suburbs are colour-coded to indicate median family income, which is $1510 across the electorate compared with $1171 nationally. |
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | |||
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | |
| Galaxy (4/11, 800) | 52 | 48 | 47 | 46 |
| Morgan (19/2, 394) | 55 | 45 | 42.5 | 41.5 |
| Galaxy (13/5, 800) | 52 | 48 | 47 | 44 |
| Galaxy (12/8, 800) | 53 | 47 | 47 | 44 |
| Morgan (17/9, 472) | 53 | 47 | 45.5 | 42.5 |
Five Bennelong polls have been published since McKew’s announcement, which have pointed with remarkable consistency to a narrow victory for Labor. These are shown on the table to the left, with the number after the date showing the sample size. In the first week of the campaign, Imre Salusinszky wrote in The Australian that Liberal internal polling confirmed these results, showing McKew’s two-party vote in the low 50s. In August, Michelle Grattan wrote in The Age that “Liberal sources” considered Howard to be in greater danger than Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. As ever, Dennis Shanahan of The Australian offers a more encouraging view for the Coalition, reporting half way through the campaign that the seat “would appear to be safe, at least according to party sources on both sides”. Howard’s difficult position has had many noting the precedent of the only previous Prime Minister to have lost his seat, Stanley Melbourne Bruce, who lost Flinders in 1929 as part of an electoral debacle which resulted from disastrously unpopular industrial relations laws. A more hopeful precedent is the 1972 election, when many were tipping Billy McMahon would lose his seat of Lowe, then held by a margin of 4.9 per cent. McMahon was able to limit the swing to 1.9 per cent, half the statewide average. His government was nonetheless defeated.
NOTE: This item was previously published last week on my Crikey blog, which didn’t get past the experimental stage. The most recent plan was to junk their blog architecture and use WordPress instead, but even that might be too hard at this late stage. I will start investigating alternative hosting arrangements in light of today’s technical problems.
ANOTHER NOTE: I know this is a big ask, but please keep comments on this thread tangentially related to Bennelong. More general discussion should be directed to the other threads.
210 Comments
Go Maxine, kill the rodent.
Rudd’s language skills are seen to be a plus for McKew, but I’m not convinced. (Trying my very best to negotiate the issue of race)
My experience suggests that incumbency, experience, age and an aversion to change are all powerful drivers in the same demographics.
Anyone else care to (carefully) comment?
Whilst we all would love Maxine (though I have my doubts to what sort of politician she will be) to win I wouldn’t write off the Prime Minister just yet.
Labor need to keep working hard on this seat right up to polling day.
For those who may have not seen it before:
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1397/image0027gl.jpg
Hack Story on JTV about Youing Volunteers focussing on Bennelong.
http://abc.net.au/jtv/video/default.htm?clip=youngvolunteers
Check out the Young Liberal Olumber. Also includes an interview with Maxine, but no Howard.
If it’s looking like a landslide at the final polls, Maxine will win. Otherwise, Howard might scrape back.
Howard hasnt been on triple J since ‘01. He is a vindictive little s. Maxine has a distinct advantage, she gets to campaign in Bennelong without distraction, its her full time job atm. Shes at every public event, and has everything that is popular about the alp past and present, save for Rudd, rolling in and out of the area to help.
The man has to go.
“From welfare state to opportunity state”
What hypocrisy. He’s offered an $800 hand-out to anyone with a child in high school – without being means tested. This goes beyond middle-class welfare, it’s upper-class welfare. While our public education system is being systematically under-funded and worn down, the rodent is lining the pockets of his rich mates. Is anyone else outraged by this?
Oh what sweet irony if Howard loses his seat due to the Asian vote, after his blanket approval of all one nation policies.
Prof — it’s not “upper class welfare”, it’s a kind of dodgy education voucher. Now if only the state govts. would introduce vouchers so the system would work properly!
Perhaps a definition of ‘on topic’ needs to be determined? Chris, I have a lot of respect for your opinions, but that opening post was really a bad way to set the tone.
This thread is going to be amusing to watch.
I think that Howard will keep this seat, while losing the election. Watching Maxine on TV ‘dancing’ (I think that’s what she was trying to do) with a Kevin 07 shit on made me cringe. I tend to agree with mumble, who pointed out a few months ago that the ALP would have been better off putting a ‘nobody’ in the seat and hoping for an upset. I don’t think the added media attention has helped the ALP all that much. Just my thoughts.
Yes – it would be a lovely irony if Howard was done over by the Asian vote considering his 1988 remarks and his adoption of Hanson-lite. If there is a huge swing on, he will probably lose Bennelong, but if the swing is smallish, he will just just hang on. No matter, Maxine will be the next member for Bennelong after Howard, now or later.
Many people claim that Howard will retain his seat including Shanahan.
Whereas all the polls published so far have Howard losing.
This seat will be line ball, however I think Maxine has done a good job in Bennelong and far better then an unknown.
My view is Howard will get done by his own past wedges. From the Iraq war, to his xenophobic views, to Workchoices and finally to those who couldn’t be bothered voting again in a by election.
Just how entrenched are the Exclusive Brethren in Bennelong? What type of school do they have there? How will they benefit from the education handout?
And didn’t JWH recently promise special lighting to his supporters?
If anyone wants my opinion, I could do with a little less frivolity in comments. I have taken to deleting the “yay, me first” comments that some have been leaving when I put a new post up. That kind of thing is appropriate for the Saturday open forums at Larvatus Prodeo, but not here.
William, have watched that Hack video I posted ? I must say both the parties are well
Yes Max give the man respect for all those people he introduced work choices to.
Give the man respect for the AWB wheat board scandal. Give the man respect for sending troops to Iraq. Thats just the start.
Hmm, didn’t mean to post my last comment, but I’ll complete it by saying both the ALP & LIb teams are well co-ordinated, with Team Maxine in front. Good report which was quite objective.
It is not necessary for Howard to lose Bennelong for a lot of damage to be done to the Party’s electoral hopes.
It is only necessary for it to look like Howard’s going to lose Bennelong.
There are a lot of voters out there who are Howard fans. They would probably vote for him if he was leader of the Labor Party. Just like some radio listeners follow Alan Jones around, no matter what station is employing him, they’d follow Howard around, whichever electorate or party he was in. But these Howard lovers don’t necessarily love the Party. And they don’t necessarily love Costello. In fact quite a few of the (quite sensibly) loathe Costello.
If they can be convinced Howard is going to lose, or that chances are that he’ll lose in Bennelong, there will be a positive reason for them to switch their vote to Labor.
That is why these polls and any discussion regarding Howard’s poor chances in Bennelong are so important to Labor’s chances outside Bennelong, i.e. the country at large.
That is also why Labor is targeting Howard’s imminent retirement in their ads. Their ads don’t specifically say “Howard will lose Bennelong”, but they do say he won’t be getting around much any more (as the old song says), even if he wins in Bennelong but retires in the near future. In other words, Howard’s retirement… more accurately… the possibility that Costello will ascend to the throne without having to fight for it, after Howard’s retirement might be worth a good couple of percentager points to Labor.
Post Script: Finally Costello got himself another captive audience – the Liberal Party election launch – and did he go The Smirk, or what? The man’s such a loser. He doesn’t realise that they only laugh at his jokes when they’re tied to the chair.
will rudd visit bennelong, i hope so
labor is on the right track with ad’s high lighting howard retiring
a rudd visit and a spray of pork might just get her over the line
You know the really, really embarrassing thing is Peter Costello lives at my grand parents old address. Same address new house.
19 Bushfire Bill
The whole Launch thing was so evangelical it was sickening. (I don’t suppose the ALP version will be any better).
It sounded on the radio like Pastor Costello had a list of the jokes printed and circulated so that everyone knew where to hiss, boo and laugh. Garret was the nominated punching bag too.
Back to Bennelong.
I think the damage nationally has already been done:
That a public figure was prepared to stand against him showed he wasn’t invincible and forced him to confront it. Without McKew in place I’m not sure the whole post APEC leadership debacle would even have happened.
Given the appalling campaigning that’s been going on on the Libs side I’m not sure that it’s reall tied Howard up that much. He’s better campaigning on what people can remember of him, rather than his recent performances.
Locally, there’s no doubt Maxine has her work cut out. Today’s Launch could be the final straw for Howard in his electorate – he just didn’t perform at a totally stage managed event.
Will Rudd have the time to place the final dagger in Bennelong before the 24th?
How many of the ‘new’ immigrants would be first time voters in Australia? Would that have an effect on the incumbency?
I’m in Bennelong, and was surprised in 2004 when we went up to vote to find Howard there at the polling place. I can’t stand the man, but me and my son (then 2) shook his hand – he’s still the PM.
My personal dream this time round is that he loses by 1 vote, so that I can say it was my vote that put him away for good.
Howard will keep his seat.
I expect that it will be very difficult getting to the polling booths in Bennelong on polling day. My understanding is that both Maxine and John are inundated with helpers. Maxine’s supporters hoping to have some part in John’s downfall and John’s supporters looking to get noticed.
The comparison with the State Election results is very interesting – there is a large difference in the voting in the Ryde and Parramatta state electorate but only small differences elsewhere. It is very interesting to see how well John Watkins has done. How much support is Mr Watkins giving Maxine? That may help her as well.
Education vouchers are prime Friedman doctrine – the Chhicago School. See Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine- a strategy to weaken public schools.
There’s no doubt that this is a seat shifting towards Labor if you look at the demographics. Reminds me of Lowe 10 or 20 years ago.
I think Labor has a chance of winning this seat if there is a big swing on in NSW. I don’t think a state wide 2PP of 51, 52 or maybe even 53 will be enough, although if you look at the polls showing a 2PP average vote of around 55%, you’d have to say that Labor is a strong chance.
The state seat of Ryde was marginal at the the 1995 election, although once Labor won a landslide in 1999 and 2003, the margin went into the stratosphere. It’s also interesting that the Liberal Party primary vote actually fell in the 2007 election, even though there was quite a reasonable state wide swing. More evidence of this area shifting away.
Is this subsidy a tax deduction or an outright gift, a la baby bonus?
My girlfriend (migrant from HK) says that poor Chinese people are generally mercenary rather than left-wing – which seems to indicate the interst rate question might be stronger in Bennelong than on average?
I notice in my trips to the seat that most of the banks advertise in Chinese in their windows.
Election night looks like being a very long night for the Rodent and Hyacinth in Bennelong.
The election is turning into a referendum on the Rodent not only in Bennelong but in the other 149 electorates.
My dream result for Bennelong is for the Rodent to “win” it on the night but to lose the seat once all the special votes are counted some days later! It’ll save on a by-election. Mind you the Rodent losing on the night won’t be so bad – just imagine the Rodent holding Hyacinth back as she tries to land a punch on Maxine. :-O
Election night looks like being a very long night for the Rodent and Hyacinth in Bennelong.
The election is turning into a referendum on the Rodent not only in Bennelong but in the other 149 electorates.
My dream result for Bennelong is for the Rodent to “win” it on the night but to lose the seat once all the special votes are counted some days later! It’ll save on a by-election. Mind you the Rodent losing on the night won’t be so bad – just imagine the Rodent holding Hyacinth back as she tries to land a punch on Maxine. :->
I’d long thought Rattus would hang on, but now I’m calling it for Maxine. The swingers aren’t stupid. If it’s obvious they’re voting for a by-election they’ll save themselves the bother. Poll numbers like today’s at the end of next week will sound the death knell in Bennelong.
Howard losing Bennelong is the side-show.
Punters outside Bennelong deserting the Liberal Party because Howard looks like losing Bennelong are the Main Event.
One – Howard defeated in his own seat – delivers a certain schadenfreude at his rejection by his own constituents.
The other delivers götterdämmerung to the Libs and victory to the ALP nationally.
Howard Lovers versus Costello Haters: about 1% to 2%… say 130,000 to 250,000 votes. The 2001 election – for example – was lost by less than 10,000 votes. This is why Bennelong is important… not to Bennelong voters, but to the country as a whole. All politics may be local, but as far as Bennelong is concerned, any politics is national.
One imponderable:
Might Bennelong constituents vote for Howard in the plaintive and forlorn hope that Maxine McKew returns to Lateline on Friday nights?
“My head says Labor, but my heart says ‘come back Max’” sort of sentiment…???
Taffy’s comment reminds me of Peter Garrett’s near-miss as a Senate candidate for the Nuclear Disarmament Party in 1984. No doubt Midnight Oil fans who preferred that he stick to his day job made the difference.
No one from the Libs on the 7:30 Report to tout today’s launch?… my my, how a 55/45 changes things..
Another possible factor here is the Chinese christian vote, those I’ve met and worked with are fairly committed christians. Same with the koreans, quite strong on their religion.
Howards close ties with the Exclusive Brethren and the recent press about these ties could work against him.
As for the sympathy vote, Howard showed no sympathy to the Tristar workers who were not allowed to retire with dignity.
It will be a close call and fascinating to watch. The inclusion of the labor voting Ermington and Melrose Park makes it more so, how much stronger will these areas be now without Latham as the leader.
If Possum is right (my god, “if”?), then the cash rate pump for Labor can take a week or two to flow through the polls, and so we might yet have a ’surge’ to come on the tail of that great bit of news for the Rodent.
There’s plenty of mortgage belt in Bennelong to be polishing up the baseball bats, and as many have pointed out, it’s going to be vote for the lame rodent now, sans government, or cop a by election.
Loyalty won’t get much of a look in.
Its true we are not an opportunity state under Howard we are more welfare than we have ever been. Catering to the spoilt has cut our own future throats. Howard’s policies have NOTHING TO DO WITH OPPORTUNITY, THEY HAVE ALWAYS BEEN TAILORED TO KEEP HIM IN POWER.
(except the GST).
Gerr – Actually, I believe we entered the OPPORTUNISTIC rodent state as soon as JWH was elected and have been paying for his cynical opportunism ever since.
Win or lose Maxine made John spend a long time in Bennelong, time he didn’t have to campaign elsewhere.
I think she will win the seat–the by-election factor will clinch it
Geez, if it is widelty known that Howard might not make it in Bennelong, ppl will vote AGAINST the coalition in droves for fear of a Costello govt. Labor should advertisie this fact if it holds.
Given this year, the interest rate rise, Iraq, the not sorry sorry, the majority of his front bench wanting him to go, Howards ridiculous plea to be re-elected then anointing Costeloo (of all ppl – he might as well have anointed Peter Andre)and now possibly losing bennelong – this really is the Perfect Storm.
Actually you know exactly what it is? Its the story of Scrooge and the ghosts of elections past coming to haunt him, unfortuanely there will be no redemption for this rodent.
I have a friend in bennelong and he says they have been polled about nine times.
Is that normal for a marginal seat?
Too true Goodbye Mr T too true,
we have missed out, just tlike the US has gone back under Bush, 10 wasted years for Australia – And the US.
Howard is giving EVERYONE no matter how well off, that 800$ rebate for shooling, what he FAILS to understand is tht the issue of education expense is real for sure, but negotiable, its the QUALITY THAT HAS BEEN DESTROYED BY HOWARD,
THE INVESTMENT IN QUALITY OF EDUCATION _ HOWARD doesn;t understand cause hes a MORON, he hate intellectuals he hates anyone smarter (most ppl) or taller than him (all people). The only thing Hoawrd has in abundance is RAT CUNNING.
HE HAS TO GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
*sigh*
The polling results point to a Labor win in Bennelong. I wonder why so many – myself included – persist in thinking that Howard will hang on? When you think about it, if you were unhappy with Howard and happened to be enrolled in Bennelong, you’d have a very direct opportunity to vote against the Howard government. The rest of us only get to express our views about Howard indirectly, and in my case, quite ineffectually, I’m sure.
I’ve talked myself into putting more faith in the polls. I feel so much better. Howard will get rolled in Bennelong.
Just a note about the Chinese approach to things. I think there are several inter-acting impulses. First, my Chinese friends and acquaintances will tell you they love thinking of themselves as Aussies, so they will be thinking about the country in the way Chinese people think about such things: they will think of their own financial independance and welfare, the security of their families and friends and the strength of the country. They are much like everyone else in this respect.
The other fairly well-ingrained characteristics of the Chinese are to respect authority and to be cautious about promises – the promises they make to others and the promises others make to them. They are not automatically trusting – indeed, to generalise – they are sceptical. So when someone in authority makes a promise to them about money (like a promise about interest rates) and then breaks it, they will feel very let down, even angry. In all likelihood, they will not show the world how they feel, but they will express themselves in a ballot like all true Aussies.
If I’m right, even my conservative, hard-working, thrifty, privately-inclined Chinese immigrant friends can be expected to vote for change.
I live, study and work in Bennelong. And the support for Maxine that I see around me every day is overwhelming. On my 5 minute drive to work, I drive past at least 10 Maxine posters in front of people’s houses. I’d say just about every street has at least one house with a Maxine poster. Everybody I speak to is voting Maxine – and these are not necessarily long-time Labor voters, these are voters who have previously voted Howard. I think it will be tight, but I think she’s going to do it.
I rate Howard slight favourite to hold his seat. Rudd will have to counter the liberal package delivered today. Honest bribes will beat reasoned argument each and every time. Looking ahead, the ALP might have to win 4 seats in the 5%+ swing range to avoid what might be a depressing result. It could be a long night. And a huge kick where it matters to the ABC for keeping it a complete secret that today’s liberal launch would be shown on their web site. They’ve completely lost the plot. I can understand why it wasn’t on the box. Loyalty to their legions of The Bill fans. Commendable, what. Get real, Auntie.
Rudd WILL visit Bennelong. This will have been planned for quite a while for maximum impact. I’d say next Monday. No distractions – Howard will be off somewhere else. Rarely is there an opportunity for an opposition leader like this. It’s exquisite and momentous.
This will be to great fanfare and coincide with the current campaign against Howard’s uncertain future and the likelihood of Costello slipping in without going to the people. It will dominate the evening news and I can’t wait.
As to Maxine’s chances, I think the last few days will tell the tale. If Rudd is still where he is now, then 90% of waverers will jump on board (nothing like backing a winner) – Howard will be finished and Maxine will have a very easy win 53 or 54. If labor has a bad (but not catastrophic) week then Howard might just win 51/49 but still lose the election. I’m convinced Howard can get more than 51% 2PP and that’s only if absolutely everything goes his way.
49
new aussie Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
I rate Howard slight favourite to hold his seat….I can understand why it wasn’t on the box. Loyalty to their legions of The Bill fans…
…
Having absolutely no interest in watching the Lib “launch”, I’m so glad they didn’t bump The Bill.
Btw new aussie, from where did you migrate? (Just curious..)
Hi all,
The thing that strikes me about William’s brilliant maps is the amazing disjunct between the votes between the 2004 Federal and the 2007 State election at the booths in a swathe from North Ryde , in a NW direction through to Epping. Mid to high 50% Liberal turns into mid to high 50% Labor. This is in contrast to the booths from Gladesville, west to Ermington, where the percentages stay more or less the same, although with a drift to Labor. I don’t know what this means, but I have a suspicion it means something.
I commented on an earlier thread that this must be a bugger of a seat to poll, because of the extraordinary demographic diversity. Near the river (they call it THE HARBOUR) in Gladesville and Putney there are houses worth $3 million. Not 1 km away there are little fibro bungalows, inhabited by renters. In Ermington there’s a lot of Housing Commission , and in Meadowbank and Top Ryde, a repellent ugliness of 60’s and 70’s low grade walk-up 3 and 4 storey ‘junk’ home units. Add to this many Asian immigrants, from quite poor to filthy rich. Getting a representative sample, and deciding on weighting must be a near impossibility.
Added to all of the above is the slow permeation to the typical uninterested voter, of ‘the Coalition are going to lose’ vibe. I am sure that this will cause a sufficient number of ‘back a winner’, and ‘do we really have to have a by-election’ punters to think, “Why not vote for that Maxine bird, she seems to be alright.” They are not voting for a Prime Minister now, just (maybe, but he’s not sure) half of one or, more probably, an early retiree. I mean, why would you bother?
All in all, I think Johnny’s gone, stuffed, had it, rooted, buggered, no hope. Just wishful thinking?
Cheers,
Alan H
as the handle says i work a train in the mornings out of eastwood station i sometimes talk with the people on the platform most not all want to see maxine win
52
Alan H Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 8:45 pm ..All in all, I think Johnny’s gone, stuffed, had it, rooted, buggered, no hope. Just wishful thinking?…
…
all of the aforementioned, Alan. He’s cactus or I’m not a crazy optimist.
I’ve moved into Bennelong, and lately I’ve seen both Howard and McKew.
Frankly I can’t vote for either but I don’t know who to vote for. Bored though I am with Howard, I don’t trust McKew – or more specifically, McKew’s mob, the ALP, which I don’t think has much since the days of that subcreature Keating.
So what do I care about?
I care about unemployment and the skills shortage – the problem is that in many sectors bosses want skills learned in the workplace, not in the classroom, so this stuff about an “education revolution” is a waste of money; governments should be supporting bosses who are prepared to take on unskilled people, particularly older people who have long left school and don’t care about ever setting foot in a college again, and train unskilled people on the job for at least twelve months. Bosses should be encouraged to train people themselves, as many people can’t afford traditional college or uni training.
I care about traffic congestion. Neither side is prepared to tackle the chronic car dependency in our major cities that costs the economy billions of dollars in lost productivity as people are stuck for longer in traffic jams. Never mind that public transport is a State responsibility – somebody’s got to get in there and do something, and I don’t care who does it! And because both NSW Labor and the NSW Libs care little about public transport, I reckon that a vote for Howard is also an endorsement of that tree-hugging transport-hater Barry O’Farrell as much as a vote for McKew is an endorsement of that Labrador-puppy-face-like bloke Morris Iemma.
I swear that had I had the capacity, I would’ve stood as an Independent in Bennelong myself. I might add that I would’ve voted for the late Peter Andren had cancer not cut down his career and now his life – I knew what he did and while I didn’t always agree with him, I would’ve preferred him any day to either the Coalition or Labor. RIP, Peter – this Sydneysider misses you.
Now I’m buggered if I know how I’ll vote.
Forgot to add in my last post that the bookies odds in Bennelong have been showing reduced odds (as related to his real chances) for Howard since betting opened on Bennelong. Liberal cash has deliberately and systematically maintained a short price for Howard.
This was essential for Howard to have any credibility. Just imagine the Coalition in the position of having its leader as the outsider. It has probably cost less than 100k to achieve this. A small, and absolutely necessary, price.
Maxine’s chances are much better than the odds on offer and was wondering when the penny would drop with punters.
You’ve just got to look at those 5 polls and the anecdotal evidence to smell the Liberal backroom boys at work.
All you Labor punters out there, get amongst these never-to-be-repeated odds.
William you must be complimented on laying this out so clearly. I had also been one of those who thought Maxine McKew was doing a great job, but that somehow Howard would find a way to hang on in his own seat, even if it cost the rest of us taxpayers billions in pork. But the reality is stark: it is close yet Howard has trailed in every Bennelong poll this year, by at least 2%. And the Galaxy poll sample (800) was reasonable. He is in serious trouble. On current trend he may not easily find 3% in the next two weeks.
Given the PM’s ongoing practice of residing in Kirribilli in North Sydney electorate, perhaps Maxine should adopt a local slogan:
“Elect a Resident for Representative in Bennelong”
It has a nice ring to it
If he does lose, an incoming government should charge him market rental for Kirribilli from the election date to his departure. That shoudl reduce teh cost of hsi superannuation for the rest of us by a few $K.
Big W = “Concern Troll”
Nice try BW.
Do not underestimate the power of door-to-door visits in an electorate. This is all to Maxine’s advantage in Bennelong and will add to the effect from interest rates and Howard’s xenophobia wrt asians. I expect Maxine to take it (just) after absentee and postals are all in.
I agree with “Liberal Sources” who claim Bennelong is more vulnerable than Wentworth.
I think Maxine will win – especially as the talk is getting very quickly to one of defeatism in the Liberal ranks – the stench of death comes on quick and strong.
But the question is, if McKew wins, what next? She would have to be a chance of a parliamentary sec position. Any idea of her major policy concerns (and no that isn’t to suggest that she has none, but does anyone know if in her past she has shown say a bent for the arts, environment etc)?
I saw her speak last week at a forum and she was very heavily into education.
Bryce, we’ve had a little campaign on here to sign up to SportingBet for their $30 minimum, and plonk your $100 free bet on Maxine. Just uses up a little bit of the Liberals war-chest to keep the prices looking OK for Johnny. You won’t lose your $30 if you put it on Labor, on the nose, and Maxine’s price is just lovely ($2.80 when I did it).
cheers,
Alan H
It must be said that there seems to be an absolute disconnect between the information posted by William about Bennelong – particularly the small but consistent poll leads to Maxine – and the betting odds, which are offering almost $3 for Maxine. Possible reasons as I see it:
1. Bookies are not paying attention to external factors and don’t care about their biggest individual seat market. (Wouldn’t think so)
2. All of the bookies have a vested interest in keeping Howard in that they feel is more important than profit, so are spinning for him. (Again, unlikely)
3. There is inside information which contradicts all we know and is driving this market. (Unlikely)
4. Liberal strategists are spending campaign money to keep the impression that Howard is ahead here. (The closest for me!)
So get a bet on Maxine while they are still carrying on with the money flushing at Liberal HQ.
I wonder when the order for the shredders to commence will be given at Parliament and Govt Departments?
The final Monday? Tuesday?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22744849-5014047,00.html
Required reading.
William, the 2004 map just disappeared!
cheers,
Alan H
It’s back again!
cheers,
Alan H
Folks,
I know its great fun imagining a world where John-boy loses Bennalong, but I find it helpful to look at the results for last election here.
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-105.htm.
Even after the massive “not happy john” campaign of ANdrew Wilke, Howard’s primary vote was 49.89%. Basically, if only 90 more people voted for him, the seat would not have had to go to preferences.
When the seat did go to preferences, he picked up 12% of the andrew wilke vote.
Mr Squiggle: I bet a lot of Liberals are looking at the last election in hope.
However, they are still stuck back in 2004.
Newsflash: We are now in 2007, payback time.
Is it me, or was the coverage of the election campaign on the 7.30 Report a bit lame tonight? What I mean is Kerry didn’t even get to interrogate anyone tonight.
Hi Squiggle, please read my 52, and look at the maps, and take on board that JWH is not going to be PM, and that by the Election date, everybody will know it. See if you can figure out a few reasons that he might, just possibly, lose 2.4% of the 2PP vote he got last time. If you can’t, then good luck to you! I’ll stick with my opinion, I think Johnny’s gone, stuffed, had it, rooted, buggered, no hope.
cheers,
Alan H
Maxine will win in Bennelong and Turnbull for the same reasons will exit Wentworth.
Good thing no one ever changes his or her vote Squiggle. (or the boundaries of the seat for that matter…)
I guess no one in the Libs could be bothered, John B
They all looked a bit gloomy and forlorned from what I saw of the campaign launch. Bad body language.
Anyone see on Mediawatch just now that Caroline Overington sent emails to Newhouse’s ex in Wnethouse asking her to direct her preferences to Turnbull because it would make a better story, and that that Turnbull was a better candidate???? Unfreaking believable from a supposed journalist. Fark me dead.
Hahahaha, Mediawatch paying out on Albrecthsen as well now. At least they haven’t gone down the ABC radio path…
Asanque – I tend to vote for what could be delivered in the next three years, rather than look back in anger, but that’s just me. If you need revenge, cool, OK
Alan – saw your post, and thought about it for a while, its why I looked at the numbers for 2004.
Each election there seems to be some romantic notion of a surprise win, a cinderalla story, an outside chance at a hung parliament, whatever.
In 2007, the story is the hue over McKew
None of these things ever happen really.
My guess is that it will be tight, but Maxine will concede by about 10:30pm
What odds can I get at the moment?
Mr Squiggle: So you are voting Labor then I presume.
Because all Howard has to offer is a mid-term retirement, broken promises and a lot of pork.
Monica Attard (media watch) has gone out on a high, gob smacking! We all knew the Shamaham, Glug Glug and Janet were filthy, but Overington has topped them all. I wonder what sort of media watch we’ll get next year with that lightweight Trioli in charge?
Mr Squiggle : A valid point, but how does that hold up to the polls, all of which show the ALP ahead on both TPP AND Primary? Which portion of voters do you believe these polls are missing? Or do you believe people will say one thing but then vote the other way?
ANOTHER NOTE: I know this is a big ask, but please keep comments on this thread tangentially related to Bennelong. More general discussion should be directed to the other threads.
Well, William, may I suggest a Campaign Launch thread?
I have not read, well. much at all, but I suspect I know what I will see.
Otherwise, we just hang on any thread.
Thanks.
Suspected Illegal Entry Vessel XI at 80.
What was the final theme music? Can’t think.
83 Crikey Whitey, John Laws theme music, pissah!
from Aunty, FYI,
“How To Vote – An independent candidate in one of the most crucial, marginal seats to be decided at the election says a senior reporter from The Australian tried to persuade her to direct her preferences to the sitting Liberal member, Malcolm Turnbull. Caroline Overington of The Australian emailed the candidate saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a loss to the parliament – denigrating the value of the ALP’s George Newhouse as a potential MP.”
http://abc.net.au/mediawatch/
Oh, yuk! Thanks be, I have not ever had to hear ‘that program’.
Laura Tingle on Philip at 10.00, SA time.
Asanque – I have taken an oath, I will never vote Labor again. I survived 1992 and 1993, but only just. The most the left can hope from me is a vote for the greens, although I’ve previoulsy confessed to voting for Peter King last election in Wentworth.
Matt – its a good question. I think a large chunk of people who have not made up their mind yet will vote for Howard. If I try and think like someone who doesn’t care too much about the result, someone who hasn’t made up thier mind yet, I find myself thinking that I’d stick with Howard on election day.
As long as John-boy is within a point or two of Maxine, my guess is he will get over the line on the day. I have no science to support my view, its largely a gut instinct
86 Crikey Whitey, fairanuff, Tingle was impressive on the tube the other night (ABC Lateline), left the ‘biographer’ in her wake, he was a bit of a dolt I thought. And apologies to Mr Bludger for being off message.
No, it is NOT Herb Alpert’s El Presidente (Law’s theme).
To me it sounded like some sort of Royalty free Music.
#62
Why muck around with 2.75. I plan to do $30 on the nose for Maxine ( a sure bet) and my $100 goes on Higgins (Smirky @ 8.00) or North Sydney(The Hick @ 7.00) to go down.
I was going to go for Mayo(Downer) but he seems to have vanished from the betting. I’m undedecided at the moment but favor Smirky as I think his demographics, and his demeanour, could spring a surprise.
Dario at 66 & 67
I also watched mediawatch. CO is a shocker- but not unexpected given that she works for GG. Atleast JA does not pretend to be unbiased! These people have no ethics or shame.
Mr Squiggle:
I don’t vote Labor either. I believe the two major parties leave a lot to be desired. However, whilst it is easy to dislike the politicians that form part of a party, I never really saw the need to dislike a party. I dislike John Howard and the Coalition merely because of their policies, especially in Iraq and their constant lies and broken promises. Once Howard goes, I would consider the Liberals again.
If Rudd follows the Howard pathway of lies and no accountability, my side support for him vanishes also.
For the record I am undecided about my vote, but it will most likely go Greens with preferences to the ALP. As opposed to informal last election.
Just curious.. Say Howard is ahead in Bennelong but it becomes obvious early on the 24th that he will loose the national contest. Can he concede his seat or does he wait out the night then retire a few weeks later?
Seems pointless hanging in there and causing a bye-election
I grew up in Bennelong (Howard came to my school once or twice), and I think it’s very winnable for Labor, especially with the general polling trends as they are. Both the seat and the district have changed out of recognition from when I lived there, and all of these changes (the successive redistributions, the influx of Chinese and Korean migrants etc) work to Labor’s advantage in the long run.
I suspect Bennelong is set for an era when it’s a classic marginal, most likely being held by the party that wins government. It is an extraordinarily average area – quite literally, as it comes out pretty much in the middle of any demographic trend you care to mention. I’ve often wondered if it is in fact Howard’s personal vote that has kept this seat from becoming a swing seat over the last decade or two, but it looks like even that won’t be enough to save him this time.
Mr Squiggle at 78.
‘In 2007, the story is the hue over McKew.
None of these things ever happen really.
Each election there seems to be some romantic notion of a surprise win, a cinderalla story…
My guess is that it will be tight, but Maxine will concede by about 10:30pm.’
The hue over McKew
Is glowing and new
The lovely Maxine
Will provide us our due
Regret and what rue
Old PM, oh adieu!
Tabitha’s Auntie Crikey.
Oh, and Maxine’s glass slippers are a perfect fit.
89 Thanks Frank, a Mariarchi fan are we? But to be pedandic, we are both correctimundo, Ole!
Christian Kerr, of course, with Laura. A worthier partner.
Re. How the ethnic groups (various) may be viewing the election will in all probability be not very different from any reasonably well educated group. People coming here from overseas tend to be mostly well-educated and able to read the media “between the lines” having had practice in doing this in the controlled press in most Asian countries. Am an ethnic myself (SEAsia) and have had the dubious joy of reading the Singaporean and Malaysian press which, sadly, the MSM in Australia is now resembling. (I heared a Polish friend say the same thing about his experience of the Communist regime press being similar to what he was experiencing here from a supposedly “free press”.)
Given that, I expect they will have a similar the range of political attitudes as the rest of the country according to their life experience and philosophical bent. Most Asian cultures place a very high value on ethical dealing and on education as having intrinsic value as well as being a means of making one’s way economically. Countries like Taiwan and Korea spend have excellent public education systems – far better than their private institutions. To them the way education has been used to create a social divide by the Howard government would not be viewed as ethical use of taxes collected from the whole community.
There’s reason to be optimistic. Idealists are not identified by their ethnic origin. Nor are crooks and charlatans.
Pancho @63 don’t forget the mug punters who will vote for Howard in his electorate either out of hero worship or because they just can’t accept that he could lose or because they heard the bit about only one PM ever losing his seat before. Add to that the public perception and media spin.
Schadenfreude and götterdämmerung – two great tastes that taste great together!
(Bushfire Bill @33)
mad cow at 99.
One could think that equally as many people may take pleasure in the historic moment of bringing the PM down.
Look at those numbers for ALP TPP over 12 months: 52 55 52 53 53
Just like Possums point regardin the national poll numbers – rock solid. No movement in a year.
Trust your instruments.
Ode to Maxine
I did but see her passing by … etc, etc
Currently on my 4th (!) Maxine sign. I keep putting them up. They keep getting ripped down. I get a new one. Cycle repeats.
The local ALP branch must have a million of the things stockpiled.
I am in Bennelong. I know someone working in the McKew campaign (although actually I am good friends with people in the Howard campaign office in Bennelong too, which is an odd situation to be in).
I think Howard will win, slightly, because of the demonstrated tendancy for ther Australian electorate to play it safe when they enter the polling booth, despite what they told the pollster last week. This might just be the 1 or 2% Howard needs.
I hope I am wrong.
104 adherent – get CCTV on your front yard, you might catch Howard’s kids in the act! (or Abbott)
Yep, as I thought. And it is relevant.
Phew!
It’s getting all so hard.
Keeping up with the posts.
Keeping up with the Last Launch of the about to be Marie Celeste 11.
Keeping up with the Liberal Sub Prime Minister/s.
Watching Four Corners.
Might have to employ botox myself, the concentration lines are becoming deeper.
Now I see an email from the OZ on line pollster, asking me to continue in their online qualitative polling, this time on the Launch of the funeral pyres.
Tricky, seeing as I could barely bring myself to hear or see!
Probably means I have to watch TV, listen to Laura Tingle on Philip tonight, and/or read all the posts.
To deliver any kind of coherent response. By midday, Tuesday.
Oh, and worse! Laws is on Denton.
Come on, Philip!
Okay, that’s done.
Now for Lateline.
On the subject of media bias. Did anyone catch the 4.00pm bulletin on Channel 7? The presenter asked the NewsLimited stooge who was providing Newspoll analysis whether Howard could still win. He replied “well if WE can pull back a couple of point per week between now and the election and get to 48% TPP then yes WE can win.” What a tosser! The female presenter looked to be highly embarrassed.
Well, I wonder how that story which just ran on Lateline re. a long term Asian visa holder being locked up for 5 years and losing his wife and son (who was born here) when they were sent back to South Korea might play in Bennelong? BTW, it turned out he should never have been detained.
Just off topic, that Overington thing is a disgrace. Even by GG standards, they’ll have to at least stand her down from the campaign reporting/ comment, won’t they?
I’m still recovering from hearing about the Tran case as related on Lateline. I’ll ask my wife tomorrow (she’s Vietnamese-Chinese and is working tonight) if either the Vietnamese or Chinese press have mentioned the case. I might check also with her brother, who lives in Balwyn – one of the many Asians in that bible-bashing Mongrel for Immigration’s seat. It would be sweet if Andrews lost Menzies. It’s at times like these I wish I too belived in eternal damnation. Having the bastard lose his seat is no decent revenge for what he, Ruddock and the rest of the vicious, gloating, wedge-happy, feral swine have perpetrated.
Malcolm Mackarras at the beginning of the year predicted that JWH would lose his seat. He reasoned that once the Bennelong voters realized that the coalition was likely to lose, they would vote for Mckew to avoid a by-election.
Now that JWH has announced his retirement sometime in his next term (if re-elected) there is even more reason to vote Mckew to avoid a by-election. IMHO Mckew will win Bennelong.
Mr Squiggle – I am interested in your comment that you would never vote Labor again because of what happened in the early 90s. I have never understood that kind of viewpoint. At what point do you think one should let bygones be bygones? There’s noone left in Labor 2007 from Labor 1993, and it’s not like the world or domestic economies are in a similar position.
I have always felt I would be willing to change sides based on policy and competence, regardless of what has happened in the past. Hence although I generally support Labor ahead of Liberal, I would consider voting Liberal once Howard etc has left. I would have happily voted Brogden verses Carr/Iemma (and probably might yet support O’Farrell), despite the fact I didn’t like Greiner/Fahey.
Intentional unfair rememberences of history bother me, I suppose. As does selective history – like when Howard says Liberal means surplus and Labor defecit. It didn’t when he Howard was Treasurer (4/5 defecit). Or when he says that interest rates are always lower under Liberal governments. Based on what evidence? The average cash rate was lower under Whitlam than Fraser so that’s not true.
I mean, how far do you have to go back to find incompetence that is so unforgivable that your electoral retribution is passed on from generation to generation? (And yes, I am after a serious answer, not just trolling!).
Burgey at 109.
Re Lateline. The Tony Tran story.
Would affect many others, as well. Including parents and foster parents.
No end to this persecution of any one not Ozzie, Ozzie, Ozzie.
That Department is very, very sick. Its culture is clearly infectious, contagious and in need of urgent quarantine.
Back to Bennelong from me sorry –
Has Howard said that after handing over to Costello he will NOT sit out the remainder of his time on the back bench a la Beazley? It would only be a year or so.
Why all the certainty of a by-election?
Kuwashima.
Howard has said he will retire something like 18 months into term.
He wants to be PM.
He wants to be PM forever.
He will never hand it over.
Discussion of any other is futile.
re: 112 Kuwashima, come on Squiggle, answer? Pencil sharpener got your nose?
This is certainly a site which attracts a lot of the scum of the feral movement, the un-Australian filth of this election.
I hope you wither and die as the polls tighten.
The Member for Bennelong has done all right today.
robart bollard, I’m pretty sure all of balwyn is in Kooyong. I believe the eastern freeway is the border.
117 Hilton Says “The Member for Bennelong has done all right today” – yeah right! What is it about the obvious that eludes and/or confounds you Hilton? He’s gone daddy gone, forget the ‘fight them on the beaches’ attitude and familiarise yourself with an elegiac.
I am wondering, with electors of Vietnamese and Korean background in Bennelong forming a significant voting block in these uncertain times, how the story on tonight’s Lateline about the illegal imprisonment and a series of tragedies visited upon Tony Tran by the Immigration Department under Kevin Andrews and overseen by PM John Howard of will go over.
Mr Squiggle might be a property developer, they got hit hard at that time.
Evening bludgers.
I have just letterboxed 500 and I am wrecked. If I ever get into parliament I am going to standardise every letterbox in the country, to make me and the posties jobs easier.
The liberal launch was pants. Complete rubish. No maternity leave. They are now finished. Kaput. Konets. Finir. Teliomeni. Finito!!!
The post from now should all be speculative as to how many seats and which ones. Inside info stuff.
117 Hilton. Quite misplaced.
The scum is at the top, not here.
The ferals can be quite pleasant, but you will need to tidy up your manners, if you hope for a reasonable reception.
‘Filth’ is hardly an acceptable idea.
Sir Henry, it will have gone over like a plumbic dirigible, (a lovely term I came across the other day!) to anyone who doesn’t ascribe to the Brown Shirt theory of social control.
And the Supreme Court judge dissing ASIO’s little escapade with al Haq, and all the other grotty, underhand, fear-mongering, zenophobic stunts these sc*mbags like to pull to show how big they are in the underpants, and atrophied in the heart and spirit.
Bring it on!
Howard is gone in Bennelong. At the moment all the ALP has to do is avoid mistakes and they will cruise to a win. Once that is obvious in the last week i think there will be a shift in Bennelong as people try to avoid a by-election.
That said, I’ll be interested in the ALP campaign launch now to see if they try and match the spending. I hope they don’t, or , if they do, its on things that are relatively non-inflationary like services, infrastructure, health, education.
Rattus’s bribe to private school fee payers is disgusting, and probably a crude wedge in waiting. I reckon the ALP will simply ignore it. The people who’s vote will be bought by the promise of $800 at some time indeterminate the future (was it core or non-core??) are probably already going to vote for him anyway. I think a lot of people will realize though, that as soon as its available their school fees will rise by something close to that amount anyway.
oh, and Hilton at 117. You are a rude and no doubt odious creature. Crawl back into the pond and go back to bottom feeding.
Hey, at least the scum will be floating on top come the 24th!!
Does that make us floaters?? No, shouldn’t go there!!
Hilton – you should hate John Howard as much as the rest of us.
He has destroyed the Liberal party and it will be relegated to the dustbin of history, where you are an insignificant speck.
Yes, you’re right Lath – Balwyn’s Kooyong. Still, the local papers (when I visit there) are full of ads, often with Chinese characters and all, for real estate in Doncaster etc. I wasn’t hoping to check my in-laws reaction in order to work out how they’ll vote; they’re from North Vietnam originally and endured American bombing, so wouldn’t vote for Howard in a fit. It was more a question of checking the zeitgeist in the Asian community in north-eastern Melbourne (which has many parallels with the community in Bennelong). For instance, how many Labor posters are up in the Asian groceries in Box Hill – the grocery destination for the population in both electorates.
PS – more specifically related to Bennelong and psephology…How do pollsters deal with electors who don’t speak English? If the Chinese community plumps for Rudd in a big way (and by definition those with limited English will be the most impressed with his ability to shuo Putonghua) how does that get registered in an opinion poll conducted by monolingual English people over the telephone?
Whether or not Howard wins Bennelong (and for that matter Turnbull in Wentworth and Hockey in North Sydney), this situation is quite incredible. had you asked me 3 years ago if the ALP and Greens would be campaigning hard in the aforementioned seats with an eye to knock off the sitting members, I would have told you to lay off the cough syrup!
The fact that the Libs are assailed in their very strongholds points out an electorate that is fed up with them. While they may hang on to fortress Wentworth, I believe that their overall prospects are very dim indeed. I, for one, can’t wait to see them go.
Not that I think Labor are all that much better mind you…
one of the best things about this election is the times. Instead of being bombarded with most of the seats at once we will have a slow drip and absord it all. The slow release pleasure that will be like no other.
6pm counting starts Vic, NSW, Tas
6.30 SA starts
7pm QU starts
7.30 NT starts
8pm WA starts
[120
Sir Henry Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
I am wondering, with electors of Vietnamese and Korean background in Bennelong forming a significant voting block in these uncertain times, how the story on tonight’s Lateline about the illegal imprisonment and a series of tragedies visited upon Tony Tran by the Immigration Department under Kevin Andrews and overseen by PM John Howard of will go over.}
Like Worchestershire Sauce in chop suey, Sir Henry. But I like Kirribilli Removal's plumbic dirigible a lot. And your sentiments KR.
What the Papers Say.
Apart from GG and Fin Review, Libs who Launch doesn’t sound like top of the pops.
At GG. Nothing triumphal from Lauren Wilson on the topic.
Nicole Kidman capturing attention at second billing.
Melb Age.
Reporting on cops shopped.
Melb city councillor CEO quits to go to Dubai.
Human cloning.
No mention of La La Launch.
SMH
Transport Smart Card debacle.
The Gap to be security fitted. (not surprised)
Employee of 18 years dismissed for having 2 beers at lunchtime Safeway/Woolies.
Fin Review
Yes, will mention the Launch, in detail.
Advertiser.
Tiger airways to fly to adelaide. (to old airport, mysteriously)
Kevin Foley really, really mad on racecourse issue.
Hobart Mercury.
Tassie group forming to litigate, re pulp mill.
Some mention of a Mr Hunt.
not quite Bennelong, but close, just dared Overington to open a thread on the Media Watch story, plenty of punters out there, who’d dare to give me some odds on the GG visiting this issue?
130 centaur_007, re the drip feed, I’m going to have to start on light beers otherwise I’ll be a mess before the WA numbers start flowing, oh the expectation!
Crikey Whitey,
If I was worried about a reasonable reception on this site, I would not have posted on the Vanguard News Network.
Link to, er, “radical” website deleted – PB
Crikey! You are not a Whitey Aussie!
Hilton,
You speak of ‘filth’, yet it ios you who link to a site that contains vitriolic references to ‘hebes’, ‘coons’, and ‘gliberals’.
Unless you are aiming at some sort of sophomoric, post-ironic art project, perhaps you should find a political site more suited to your interests.
Hilton,
You are a Howard fan? And a Vanguard fan?
@ 32 Ratsak Says:
Obviously you didn’t watch 4 Corners.
Hilton, sad sad sad….
I think you would be hard pressed to find a swinging voter as stupid as Hilton Albert.
Hilton.
Crikey, Whitey!!
Albert Ross Says:
November 13th, 2007 at 12:54 am
@ 32 Ratsak Says:
The swingers aren’t stupid.
Obviously you didn’t watch 4 Corners.
Classic! So they are the people who decide what government we get! Holy Sheet Batman! Let’s sell the whole country to China now and we can all go and live in the Bahamas and drink cocktails on the beach, ‘coz we’s sunk otherwise!
There just may have been, maybe, a three figure IQ between them, but only just. Hate to say it, but that’s why they call it ‘dumbocracy’, ‘coz they’z the few percent who make a majority a majority.
Scary, isn’t it?
@ 104 adherent Says:
My experience which goes back many years is that this sort of thing ie. persistent vandalism by one party’s activists is symptomatic of the fact that they know they are in deep trouble. If they thought they were OK they wouldn’t bother.
This convinced me to put my free $100 on Maxine but Sportingbet has a touch of the Pollbludgers and is down at the moment.
142 Kirribilli Removals, as I said on Poss, I do feel sorry for them, but not because they appear stupid, rather they are an apposite indication of the electoral mess JWH has created over 11 years. This is serious Mum! And people who make fun of this mob because they say ’stoopid fings’ are wits, wits with a capital F. These are not the people to get all smug about, these are the mob who we need to convince of the need for change, so to all you clever dicks that reckon those 4corners lot were a joke, pull your fuggen heads in and think about how to convince them Toad of Toad Hall has crashed the car one too many times.
142 Kirribilli Removals
Dear oh dear. I watched Four Traumas. And it was indeed.
Country certainly needs brain skills upgrading, though doubt chucking money at their heads will work.
Howard’s approach, which I’m sure Hilton will appreciate, of bringing in many thousands of smart, savvy Asiatic types, each year, should do the trick for Australia.
Assuming Howard is not around to see them off Australia’s shores. For greener fields. Taking their brilliance with them.
Take comfort. The swingers will not decide this time, if they ever have.
In reply to Sir Henry’s post in 120:
There aren’t too many people of Vietnamese descent in Bennelong. Not sure how many Koreans would watch Lateline, though I’m sure it has/will get some play in the korean papers and have some of them asking themselves: “what if that was me/my child”.
It should be noted that a good chunk of the koreans in the area aren’t registered voters as they haven’t enrolled, or more likely the case: not taken up australian citizenship.
Also, if you see a chinese person under 30 years of age in Bennelong, they are probably MORE likely to be a Chinese international student than a registered voter. All of this leads me to believe that the “asian vote” in Bennelong is slightly exagerrated. The young asian professionals in the area tend to vote no differently to other young professionals: chardonnay socialist, and a few economic right-centre Lib voters.
In response to an earlier question: the schools in/bordering Bennelong are *predominantly* single-sex public schools, all of which produce strong year 12 results. This is huge drawcard in attracting asians to the area (they know a bargain when they see one!) The wealthier parents send their boys to one of the GPS schools on this side of the river or Loreto Normanhurst, Woolwich, Pymble, et al for the girls. Not sure whether Rudd’s plan will actually have any affect, but Rudd talking about education is also welcome news to the eudcation obsessed bennelong families
Touch and go for the result, but that $2.80 looks good value for Maxine.
ps Kirribilli, are you a member of the smugocracy? (wow SIEV XI used the ‘ocracy’ suffix in an inventive way, isn’t he clever!).
Robert Bollard,
I’d be very interested if your soundings about the Chinese-speaking voters in Menzies reveal anything. I understand that the Liberals are polling Menzies. I doubt that Andrews is in real danger, but his ministerial performance can’t be helping him in a somewhat multicultural electorate.
Just to meet William’s strictures about relevance, I reckon Maxine will win with over 51%, and that short-term Bennelong will be a comfortable hold for Labor. I’m sure that Howard’s personal vote has been a factor until now, and should still influence the numbers on Saturday week.
SIEVXI: you doth protest way, way too much. Johnny Howard did not make them thick, and the only thing you’re likely to convince some people of is that a free beer is the best brand.
More to the point, why is the ABC doing pieces like this instead of journalism? Now that IS something you can lay at the feet of the Rodent.
You guys are wasting time on a Vox Pop, and meanwhile we have Howard fan Hilton giving us links to Vanguard. And why bother removing the link? We can find it easily enough, if Hilton wants to damn itself then stand back and give it more rope.
4 Corners and the ‘Undecided’; stupid is just ….. too complimentary. If you ever wanted to gain an understanding of why Howard has been successful watch this ’show’.
Can’t be done, 144. One has tried.
There he was, Mr Rudd, all bright and shiny on the tele tonight, in soothing tones assuring, “We will not match their spending.” He has now enlisted the RBA to his cause. More power to Mr Rudd, I say. “Inflation? Rising Rates? You want them? Vote for Mr Howard!”
Kirribilli 149, True enough on the question of why is the ABC chasing televisual disasters in the last 2 weeks of the campaign? Presumably the Board told them to, but that’s not the point. You can’t wriggle away from the smugocracy claim so easily, they are not thick (even if they make you feel good about yourself), they, up until about Jan 07 were AVERAGE Aussies and they deserve more than smartarsery if they are going to be won over. Now I like a psepho joke as much as the next person and I have always enjoyed the wit and insight of your posts so far (your blog name is a cracker) but don’t use your scant pepper to pick on the salt.
Bah Humbug. The 4 corners program was selective not representative. If only 5 people vote for Howard at this election I would be able to do a 4 corners show on them. It means absolutely less than nothing.
OK, can’t sleep tonight, not sure what it is, I ate a whole pack of mentos out of boredom today at 4:00pm and now I’m itching all over and can’t sleep
Asanque at 92 – I think the basic function of the ALP is act as the political wing of the union movement. The ALP will never stray far from this core raison d’etre, although other peripheral issues tend to get associated with the ALP, like Health care and education, they will never be at the heart of the ALP.
By the way, Asanque, where did you come up with your Nom de plume? Is it some foriegn word we should all know? Seriosly, I’d like to know, I’ve even Googled “asanque” and I’m none the wiser
Let’s hope that Kevin Andrews gets deported from the Parliament too. He is a the very face of gloom (Ruddock being doom).
Cognizant as I am, Blogmaster, of your strict policy regarding things “frivolous” as articulated clearly in comment 15 of the present thread, I humbly submit the following before retiring for the evening.
Elmer”Maxine” Fudd as Brunhilde from The Bugs Bunny Show stands resolutely at dawn outside Kirribilli House. Cue Valkyrie Wagner music……
“Kill da Woe-dent! Kill da Woe-dent!”
Watch Vaile’s speech from the launch again Squiggle, that will have you drifting off in next to no time.
This is probably my third response to the national part of this website.
I enjoy reading all the comments particularly when you all get into analysis.
I did comment a couple of weeks ago that I thought that if the 2PP was around 8 to 10% next week that Maxine would win Bennelong. I am feeling increasing confident each day.
I must however comment on the derision directed to the participants of 4 Corners tonight.
What ever you think of their education levels it is the responsibility of the Labor Party to convince them a change of vote is required. If that cannot be done it rests squarely on the shoulders of the party as a failure. To denigrate them is elitist and exactly resembling the type of society Howard has promoted.
If you dont agree with them continue the fight to convince them a better world exists.
I wonder if that is the Rudd world though?
Personally I prefer Latham, loser that he was.
Colin surely you cant be serious! Educate and convince them?
Kuwashima and SIEV XI,
Sorry, for not responding earlier. Its an interesting question,
I think part of the answer in 2007 for me is that fortunately, there has a been a better alternative to the ALP at each election since 1993 and I have not had to question my position.
Kuwashima, there are two parts to your question:
1) I might let bygones be bygones if I was certain the ALP had transitioned away from what it was in 1993-1996. I don’t know much of what TOny Blair did with “new Labor”, but my sense is that the ALP will need to move past its union-core strucutre to become a valid alternative at all elections, and not just a preferred choice at the “its time” elections. In other words, if the ALP was sufficiently different from the beast that oversaw my personal poverty, then a reconciliation is on the cards. A simple change of personell won’t do it though
2) I agree with JWHs view that the Libs will manage an economy better but I reach that conclusion by looking at today’s environment, and not by comparing interest rates over 3.5 decades. I acknowldegde and forgive the selective use of historical interest rates from both sides of politics, they are both guilty of using dumbed down messages. Instead, I have made up my own mind from the information available.
Its like the man said, “who do you trust”
Thanks,Alan H…never a betting person, but now enrolled with Sportingbet with the $30/$100 you suggested. Annoying that they phoned my mobile with ads/offers,however.
Congratulations!!! Another excellent coverage of the seats that count by William.
Voted the Bests election coverage on the net. (Andrew Landeryou comes second for comments and information but in a different league)
It would be great if Maxine wins the seat. She is without doubt one of the best political ABC journo’s turn Polly around. She has added spice to this otherwise boring campaign. Go girl go.
I went to a function in Eden Monaro (Queanbeyan) today at which Bob hawke spoke. Afterwards whilst speaking to another attendee I overheard Hawke tell Steve Whan the local state member that Maxine would “shit it in”.I don’t know what info he has access to that we wouldn’t, bur he is certainly very busy campaigning in the marginals.
Off topic a little, but at the same function I overheard the ALP candidate Mike Kelly tell someone that at a function at Narooma on the south coast, he got a crowd which “had to turn about 200 away because the hall was limited to 500 for safety reasons”. This is an extraordinary figure for anyone at a country town.
Mike Cusack @ 165.
That is just Hawke’s speak. Bob Hawke has no idea, never has, he was an overall embarrassment of the 1980’s If it was not for Keating he would never have run the country. Strangely enough I have more respect for Fraser nowadays then Hawke. But I still remember November 11, 1975… Lets we forget..
To P&A!!!!
Yes I strongly believe there is a responsibility that by far the majority of the people who contribute to this site have to be visible in our communities and work to get people past the what do I get syndrome. I know a lot do and have been successful in this campaign over many months but let’s face it Howard has been successful because he sells to the “What’s in it for me” voter.
Does Labor want two terms because they can or seven terms because the philosophy is right. I want seven!
Did I send everyone to sleep?
Just like there are promises and core promises there are votes and core (Solid) votes. Gladesville Slips to Third base. The GST we were told would never happen.
No,Colin,
I wrote
“Hear,hear…whatever happened to the common good”
..and then being conscious of being an ‘arriviste’/amateur, decided to delete!
Colin, I heard today something that said it well. It’s not about what we want, its about who we are.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/perspective/stories/2007/2088390.htm#transcript
#171 excellent article that captures what this election can be
I notice that the Bennelong map includes parts of Parramatta. Does this include Westfield or is that in the Parramatta electorate?
Julie, it includes part of the state electorate of Parramatta (which is what the names in blue on the third map indicate), not the suburb.
My memory is still of the Briggs (Galaxy) radio comment that he believed Howard would lose. He based that on the fact that the three Galaxy polls were several months apart and all came out about the same (McKew 51-49 or 52-48 2PP).
His assumption, especially with the last one the same, was that there’d been no movement over that time. He saw that as very bad news for Howard.
It sounds very much like the national figures of 55-45 also not moving much over time. Perhaps the 4-point difference is the Howard local member recognition factor, or maybe it just reflects the increasingly marginal demographic.
Why are Ryde & Gladesville the Labor pockets north of the river as Strathfield is the Liberal pocket to the south? if Labor wins Bennelong it will like Lowe (or Ryde & Strathfield at the state level) become a seat which Labor usually wins. Howard is polling worse than Turnbull which suggests that he is losing the yuppie ‘reublican Liberals’ who are sticking with Turnbull.
Either way you look at it, Maxine will be Bennelong’s MP in just a couple of months. Should the Coalition lose, can you really see JWH hanging around? There’ll be blood on the tiles in the Liberal dressing room, and the rat will be the first to go. He may even resign on the 24th/25th.
Just thought you’d pop in and prove your own contention eh Hilton?
Howard on Radio National this morning: “I expect to retain my seat!”
Either he’s privy to Liberal internal polling we haven’t seen, or the silly old goat has lost touch with reality.
Go Maxine!
Let’s hope jthe deportation of the Korean woman (Lateline last night) gets a lot of coverage in the Korean press. May sway some Korean voters in Bennelong.
Thanks Mr Squiggle.
Understand your reply. It makes much sense – compared to the notion of an oath never to vote one way again in sickness and in health as long as you both shall live.
I do disagree somewhat with your analysis, I think economic management will be much of a muchness – the Libs’ spending spree will put massive inflationary pressures on the economy, so they have traded their economic credibility for election bribes in my view (although I agree Labor is not much better). You might consider the Libs will manage the economy better – I prefer to take Ross Gittins’ line that Swan will know about as much as Costello did on day 1 at his first treasury briefing. That does not spell doom for the economy.
On the second issue of union domination – I can understand this also. Although I again take a different viewpoint – it was Hawke who first started the pro-business anti-union agenda the Libs now hail as visionary with degregulation etc. I suppose a pro-union person in power can achieve more anti-union policy co-operatively than an anti-union person can. Hence I tend to disregard the union scare.
Thanks for the comments.
Albert @ 138
No I missed 4Corners, and you may be right. But I think there’ll be enough people who will realise a vote for Howard is a vote for doing it all again in February to get Maxine home.
Squiggle at 156 – Fair enough. I guess we’ll find out how Rudd controls the unions IF he gets in.
As to the nom de plume, its not a foreign word per se, but I’ll leave it mysterious for the time being
Squiggle at 162.
I can acknowledge your viewpoint about Labor, but going on your oath, you appear to be someone of strong moral principles. That is why I’m bemused as to your support for the Liberals where Howard has no such honour.
I can’t imagine you would be the type of person to say “I will never ever” do something, and then do it. Because you appear to be the type of person (similiar to myself), that places great importance in honesty and the truth.
Given rising inflation and interest rates (somewhat due to the world economy), I’d seek further information from you as to what makes Howard a better economic manager. From what I can see, the massive pork barrelling from both sides and failure to invest in infrastructure and skills are large black marks against the Liberals.
I can’t see anyone seriously trusting the Liberals on anything given their past record. Its a fail on almost every single policy area.
That is why I advocate I vote for minor parties as opposed to the major parties until we get more accountability and more policies aimed at actually bettering Australia.
Maybe this should go in the Bennelong thread, but there’s just been a small movement to Maxine on Sporting bet, but we’ll know all the others on Jackman’s site after noon today.
It’s been rock steady for days, so is this the beginning of the Rodent’s slide down the punter’s pole/poll ?
Oh, this IS the Bennelong thread! Time for a break and some real work!
One should not get too carried away by either polls or one’s own prejudices when trying to predict election outcomes. If the polls are to be trusted, it is only insofar as they are predicting some swing back to the ALP. But to estimate the likely size of this swing I’d prefer to rely on 2 other factors: history and common sense.
History implies that the 2pp vote for Labor, if a change in govt happens, will likely be in the 52%-53% range. The It’s Time election of 72 delivered 52.7, the silver bodgie in 83 achieved 53.2. I personally cannot see those figures being exceeded this time. The economy is not in the state it was under Fraser in 83. Howard is in no way the ineffectual leader McMahon was in 72.
Looking at the Pendulum, the 16 seats most likely to change hands takes you down to Dobell. But to expect all of these 16 marginals to switch is to succumb to self-delusion. There are 2 basic reasons I say this. First, Bennelong and Wentworth would have to be coalition losses. For obvious reasons, one has to doubt this would happen. Second, there is likely to be a surprise coalition hold among the other 14 most-marginals. History shows us that there will always be a seat or two that goes against the trend.
Therefore, I think its likely that Labor will need to win at least 3 seats in the 5-6 plus range. And there are only 7 of them, Deakin to La trobe. After that you’re in 6% plus. That is the south col of Rudd’s Everest.
Of course the swing won’t be uniform – and in fact the ALP should hope that the swing is as un-uniform as possible. It may need to snare a seat or two out in the 7-8% range.
In my opinion this election will come down to a wafer-thin margin. Encumbancy, the donkey vote, blatant bribery and mental coin tossing will all influence the outcome. Most of all, Rudd should not rely on voters being either rational or idealistic. He should consider boosting his own repertoire of promises at Wednesday’s launch. He would be foolish to allow his bid for power to be finessed at the 11th hour by the tried and true tactics of his conservative opponent. Assuming his pragmatic instincts and nerve hold, I’m predicting a cliffhanger. The sun will probably fade in the west for one of the main parties. Which one I leave in the hands of my fellow citizens. The main question is whether the supplies of beer hold out for the night’s finale, and whether we’re all still friends in the morning..
Given the average of something like 50 or 60 polls for the whole year is 54-55% to the ALP on two party-preferred, Howard needs both a dramatic narrowing (preferably a collapse in the ALP’s primary vote) and for him to hold on to the marginals.
On history, Hawke won in 1983 when seats like North Sydney didn’t want to know Labor. This time Labor will get votes from both people disenchanted on interest rates and workchoices who deserted in ‘96 and defecting Liberals who’ve had enough of Howard.
Remember two big issues are environmental and the Greens are likely to do as well if not better than last time. Note the only recent primary changes seem to be Labor to Green not Labor to Liberal (I am disregarding predictions that Labor will get 51% nationally, that is simply too high).
How many of the marginals Howard can hold depends on the local dynamics interacting with the national tide. I expect Solomon, Braddon and Dobell to fall pretty late, if Howard is to hang on he probably has to hold at least two of them. The trend suggests that is just too hard.
Remember that Howard was the safe pair of hands last time against Latham. Now Howard has offended a lot of people on interest rates and workchoices, which combined with a heap of other things that have mounted up creates a critical mass of opposition. I expect Labor to clean up a lot of the seats in the 5-7% range like Blair, Robertson and Herbert.
There will be some huge swings in that 7-8%+ bracket, the only question is will they tip Labor candidates in. I think they will if those candidates come across as capable performers such as in Sturt. Some seats like McPherson and Macarthur may swing big but it does not take much to chop a 15% swing down to 10-11% so Labor will only pick up those seats if something go really pearshaped. A lot of interesting seats might be getting more pork next time though.
Some of the individual seats are likely to be close, but the actual result is likely to give Labor a pretty decent majority. That closeness in most seats will keep WA in the contest.
Asanque,
Unsure if you are still on this thread,
How do I support Howard, when he has no honour? You would need to establish the premiss of the question before I could answer it, does John H have no honour?
Why do I think the libs are better managers? I could never expect the ALP to deregulate the Labor market to allow unemployed a greater shot at doing the same job for cheaper wages than the incumbents. IN terms of fiscal management, I would never count on the ALP to religously persue surpluses and carry a philisophy that individuals are better placed to choose what to do with excess funds than governments.
I agree the lack of investment in infrastrcutre is a huge black mark against the libs though, golden opportunities are being passed over
Mr Squiggle:
I’m surprised you do not know John Howard’s record.
Here are a list of dishonourable acts off the top of my head.
1. “Never ever” GST
2. Children Overboard
3. Non-core promises
4. Iraq War debacle – lied about the premise of the war
5. Failure to hold anyone accountable for AWB and failing to provide an inquiry into government responsibility
6. Deliberately lying 3 times in relation to his claim about interest rates
7. Ignored fundamental human rights re: David Hicks
In terms of labour deregulation, wasn’t the ALP responsible?
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/1999-2000/2000rp21.htm
In terms of economic management, running constant surpluses is irresponsible as constant debt. It means the government is taking too much money from us and not investing it.
The Costello debt furphy is something I’m happy to discuss in further detail if required.
Here’s an article on Howard’s dishonesty
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-great-deceiver-is-in-a-class-of-his-own/2007/11/12/1194766588117.html
#189
1. He changed his mind, opened the GST to public debate and won a mandate from the public in 1998.
4. Even Kevin Rudd said back in 2003 that there was “absolutely no doubt Saddam has weapons of mass destruction”.
1. No public figure especially the leader of a political party should make a statement that is something that he is unable to retract. If he does, it means he is stupid, incompetent or corrupt.
And by mandate, do you mean, did not win the popular vote?
2. Kevin Rudd was wrong. However, John Howard was the Prime Minister and took us into an illegal and disastrous war. The buck stops there.
1. We live in a Westminster system. I suggest you google that and educate yourself
2. How can you guarantee that Kevin wouldn’t make similarly poor judgements when PM?
1. I realise that, but seeking a mandate is one thing, a clear blatant lie is another.
2. I can’t. However, you can take a proven liar vs an unproven one.
I know who’d I prefer any day of the week.
Asanque,
The way this blog moves on to new issues, there is little chance you will come back to this, but I would like to respond
1) Like Justin, I think the upfront approach from JWH of announcing a GST as part of his platform before the 98 election was an act of honesty and integrity. Basically, his “never ever’ pledge was reviewed by the public, tested and reviewed from every angle and was voted in at the 98 election. Today, the GST is a giant yawn, it doens’t effect me in the slightest
2) My memory of the children overboard issue is that there weren’t actually any children overboard. What’s the problem here? What is the crime that justifies claims of dishonour? I find the claim that a Prime Minister did not have direct knowledge of children in the water and relied on advice from ministers or public servants to be entirely plausible.
3)non-core promises – needs more examples please
Oh bugger it, if you read this, let me know on a more up to date thread and I’ll come back
The Asian vote is lost to Howard anyway. What Howard should do is something he has done so well in the past i.e. make some comment that Australian values are being eroded by non white immigration and that the Coalition is the only party that can defend those values. That way he stands a good chance of gathering many bi-partisan white votes. Note that he has already tried this tactic ( Citizenship test, Sudanese migrants) but wasn’t brave enough to go further.
Howard is losing the Korean and Chinese votes in Bennelong. Interesting write-up in the SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pm-losing-koreans-and-chinese/2007/11/18/1195321609232.html
The ‘Man of Steel’ is becomming ‘Scap Iron’ Oh Happy Day!!
Howard “A Sorry Sight” (so much blood on his hands: Macbeth) – For Australia
Just a comment as a Bennelongian who has voted against Howard in the last two elections (since I was eligible) – the fact that Maxine is a HUGE bonus in this campaign because know that Bennelong knows Howard is retiring, potentially for a by-election, but definitely for a nobody; whereas Bennelong can chose a new strong local member that will have a voice within the Labor party, and most likely the Government.
I think John Howard’s retirement plans play alot stronger in Bennelong than in the rest of the country, he’s told everyone else who will replace him as leader, but not told his own electorate what will happen with Bennelong. Maxine will scrape through with the finest of margins.
Sorry that barely made sense, I think you get the drift.
Rooks rike a ross for the Plime Minister in Bennerong.
Well, I’ve placed $100 on Maxine.
There’s many reasons to think Maxine will win, but of course being a long-standing prime minister will mitigate these.
It’s going to be cloudy in Sydney, with a few showers. While the link is by no means certain, there is evidence to suggest that weather affects voting — e.g. http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/181_11_061204/ald10721_fm.html
It certainly affects mood for many people, kind of important when someone has to get themselves to a booth to stand is a queue for the wonderful reward of … ticking some boxed and inserting them in a box.
So many Chinese voters there now! — I really struggle to see why they wouldn’t prefer a guy who is fluent in Mandarin. I mean, really, this is kind of a plus.
So right now, I think it’s looking rather promising for Maxine, enough so to place a reasonable bet. Maybe that will turn out to be a silly thing to do, we’ll see. Whatever the case, I very much doubt it’s going to be a pleasant day for Howard tomorrow … what a dreadful pity.
Judging by the number of Howard posters defaced in the seat of Bennelong, Maxine will win..
There’s no doubt a lot of people despise Johnny and deface the Lib posters, but a significant numbers still think “he’s doing a good job”.
Had a walk around Epping and vistited 2 polling places near the station. A lot of people carrying (only) the Liberal how-to-vote cards. Maxine’s gonna need every one of those Green preferences.
I voted at West Ryde Primary School and stayed a while chatting with Maxine supporters. Howard and his minders turned up and he stayed the best part of an hour.
He was not mobbed, in fact few people noticed him and fewer went over and shook his hand. If I had had a camera, I could have got plenty of shots of him standing on his own in the midst of the hubbub.
The best one might have been when he was having a sausage sandwich. I would have captioned it:
Bennelong voters decide that Howard has to eat his lunch all by himself.
People were polite and acted with respect for the office, but there was no mobbing.
Later I scrutineered for Maxine in a booth that has solidly returned Howard for years. Result: Maxine won on primaries.
The party afterwards was triumphant. Now for the hard work of restoring social justice.
Max the Axe claims Bennelong
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html
I voted in Bennelong at Putney Public School, which I’m quite sure is the “one booth” that Maxine didn’t do to well in; she got my primary vote.
Bennelong
AEC site shows, as at: 28/11/2007 7:45:59 PM:
16,732 envelopes issued
3,278 envelopes recieved
And a total of 3,938 counted from Pre-poll and Absent.
Also, McKew’s swing is slightly down to 5.76%, (it was 5.9% yesterday, or thereabouts).
So there appears to be 12,794 possible votes to count, 5,062 are postal, but only 163 have yet been recieved (according to the website!)
5,387 Pre-poll, of which 2,889 have been counted.
kay @ 206
I did my small bit for Maxine in the last week, letterboxing in Ermington and Epping.
It was funny latter that day, because one of the couples we met at a kids birthday party had been at your booth to vote, and the rodent and minders rolled up. Howard grabbed anyone’s hand (drowning man??), took the wife’s (they’ve never voted for him!), and the hubby’s next, who quickly shot off “enjoy your retirement”! The minders hissed at him, as one could have expected!