Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,009 Comments
The Lambert PDF goes to a broken link
Not anymore, Asanque.
Well. There we go, while waiting for a response, previous threads.
First
Computers in the sort of quantities that will be needed are very cheap and there are now a number of systems for schools that allow one very powerful PC to act as a server for up to 30 very cheap slaves. Can’t play graphics rich games on them (this year) but perhaps that is not the idea. Kids that need PCs with a lot of grunt to run CAD etc can be accomodated on stand alones.
772 Edward (previous post)
Thanks for the question Edward.
I would say the vast majority of people that work on campaigns in workplaces (mostly called organisers) come from the shop floor originally.
I did myself.
I understand why you would ask this question, certainly there was a point in time when this wasn’t always the case, but since the introduction of the Organising Works program in 1994 this has changed. That program focussed on recruiting and training young (and NESB where relevant), shop floor activists to become organisers.
Bill Shorten was a graduate!
That is not to say that after working as an organiser in the industry which you were once a shop floor worker and union delegate that you might not move into camapigns in other industries or work for other unions.
The other types of union officials recruited are mostly AFDs (aka f$%ken demics) which take up advocacy roles and research roles. Most have a background in social studies in addition to law or economics etc or have held roles in Student unions or community organisations at some stage.
The days of ALP hacks getting jobs in unions in return for delivering numbers is all but gone in almost all union branches across Australia, but i will not say it never happens. It certainly became common in the now distant past. Not unlike some gigs in Lib party no doubt.
The day of industrial Advocates becoming the union leaders also seems to be leaving us aswell interstingly enough. This is because campaigning and not commission work is the path to a win for members these days and is therefore the more sort after skill in leadership.
Just remember that unions are democracies, I have seen the leadership change hands in many unions over the past few years and you dont keep your job in a democracy without keeping voters interests at heart as Howard is now finding.
Look at the sexist Labor pigs here attack Julie Bishop on the basis of her gender and, FFS, the shape of her eyes.
The same fools that attack Bob Baldwin because he’s rotund. Hockey has also copped it.
They are so tolerant these loyal foot soldiers of the voice of moderation and decency, the ALP. They are the first to scream about the first hint of discrimination – until it’s directed against someone they hate.
Funny, I’ve never seen any Coalition supporters here carry on about stuff such as Penny Wong’s sexual preference or Michael Danby’s gut.
Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.
I know this is self-interested, but I am amazed to see the odds at Sportingbet on Lowe:
Labor $1.01
Coalition $9.00
Am I right in saying that I will soon be living in a safe federal seat for the first time?
previous thread, re 749
Diogenes Says: Just a word to stick up for Julie Bishop
fair enough, she shouldn’t be bagged for her Marty Feldmans, but she nevertheless talks crap.
4- albert
Computers are going to be the equivalent of the old school locker.
You keep you workbooks, textbooks, timetable/calendar, leave notes for mates etc.
obviously they are much more than that but i see the similarity
And no doubt there will be a deal with Mr Gates for a subsidised licence for Wiondows Vista and/or XP Pro as well.
Despite what he says I still think it will be between 80 and 85 seats for Labor. A comfortable majority but maybe not the desolation of the Libs some are hoping for.
Dave,
Name one union that has changed hands in recent years in NSW?
If its a democracy its Albanian style.
Communist Manifesto (1848) – vis a vis Workchoices:
You can still get on Newhouse on Sportingbet at $2.70. Suspended on Portlandbet and centrebet. They’d know more than we do about market movements in wentworth.
I’d love it to be 96 seats, but a more likely result is something like 78-82 seats for Labor.
Penny Wong a leso?
Ooh err, pictures please.
Hey Swing Lowe, did you get Jim Tsolakis junk mail (lib member for Lowe for the unitiated).
You really hard to look hard to see he was standing for the libs. Not one mention of rodent.
Well said Isabella
Thanks William for the analysis of the Senate. Assuming that the polls don’t lie (no wonder Howard hates polls) and Labor wins, the Senate is the next question. Does anyone know what Nick Xenephon’s views are on issues like Climate Change, Education, Workchoices etc? Would he vote with Labor?
It’s interesting how their anger at the prospect of having their snouts pulled out of the trough brings out the finest qualities in our Liberal friends, particularly their virulent snobbery. So that brazen Julia Gillard has a moderately broad Australian accent! How shocking. Doesn’t the gel know she’s supposed to talk like the Duchess of Kent if she wants to be received into polite society?
Sorry Edward, I am not in NSW and not close to it, but i know the Metal workers leadership changed hands nationally and NSW had a significant bearing.
I am in WA where the Teachers union has just seen big changes in leadership. The MUA changed hands recently too and even the Firefighters had contested elections with a change of team as a result.
I am not trying to argue with you Ed, just give the inside perspective you asked for without the spin if i can.
No 14
How dumb Karl Marx is.
Also, Isabella, you are a champion. Brilliant.
#7 yes, good to see a bit of self-righteous indignation Isabella.
Who gives a rats ass what you think Isabella? We’re going to win. Love it or leave.
Sure Dave I appreciate that.
Tend to agree with the SA assessment, as described.
The friends, despite my doubts, seem to intend to vote Labor Upper House.
The odd voice professes a reason which seem odd to me, such as Greens are left wing, but still say intend to go Labor.
In vain, I point out balance of power issues.
Hmmm, Julie Bishop finishes up on LL, then Isabella starts up on PB…….more than a coincidence?
And how can it be sexist if both men and women are attacked for their looks? More like looksist.
I love a well thought out comment like that Jai-Mei! Are you going to pull Isabella’s hair next?
Isabella and Edward,
Unfortunately both sides have been making sexist attacks and yes it is childish. However seeing you both are so offended I will look forward to you’re defending Julia G next time a Right Winger attacks her for what she is wearing, etc.
No 28
LOL! Whose up for an online quarrel?
7 [Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.]
Sorry Isabella only speak two languages, can you translate that into something comprehensible please?
Henry,
I did get Jim Tsolakis’ junk mail – and I threw it directly into the bin (without reading it).
That said, it would not surprise me at all if Howard wasn’t mentioned in the letter – his name is virtual poison over here in the former Tory bastion of Strathfield…
William
I posted an entry on the Qld senate thread which shows contrary to what others say that One Nation and Pauline Hanson preferences can go to Family First to elect a FFP senator.
Also I would not write off Bartlett yet, if he gets around 4.5% primary or more then he has a good chance of being re-elected. Polls have shown the dem vote staying around this level and Bartlett does have a good profile to achieve this.
ABC senate calculator is intriguing with all of its possibilities, but I think the key is the order of the primary vote for Hanson, One Nation, Family First and the Democrats that decides whether it is a dem or a FFP senator elected.
However if the ALP primary is high this can also determine whether a green or a 3rd ALP gets in. I haven’t tried too many combinations, about 8 so far, so someone else may come up with different scenarios and theories.
I’m wondering if ESJ and Isabella support Bill Heffernan’s “deliberately barren” comments about Julia Gillard, and anything that comes out of Wilson Tuckey’s mouth?
Isabella
“The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement.”
Said with typical dignity and class, you are a veritable Bill Heffernan.
Paul K,
I couldnt care a toss about Medicare Gold’s personal life, looks etc
William, I’ll be giving Andrew Bartlett my number 1 vote below the line in the Senate – but I agree that it’s the end of the road for The Dems. Their own fault really, a divided house etc etc. The dumping of Janet Powell (now with the Greens) was the beginning of the end. She predicted in 2004 they would disappear:
Snap, Jai Mei
Nothing like a new thread to clear the air.
Jai-Mei,
I think the Wilson story was legitimate. Her foregoing children by choice or circumstance is her business.
6
Isabella Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
“Look at the sexist Labor pigs here attack Julie Bishop on the basis of her gender and, FFS, the shape of her eyes.”
….
It’s neither her gender nor the shape of her eyes that bothers me, it’s the form of her politics, and, especially, her pitiable fawning over John Howard. Luckily, I have the chance to vote against her next week, oink oink.
No 32
As did I. Jim Tsolakis hasn’t a chance in hell. Although, it’s mainly because the party has put no resources into helping Jim.
Innumerate Person @ 21 – be careful – you may be alienating a supporter.
Edward,
Yes, but will you complain if a Right Winger makes a sexist comment or is it just left wing sexists you complain about?
Well isn’t that good news! Even if it’s a bit out the Greens must surely have the balance. Why good? I hope they can give the Rudd Govt’s legislative programme more heart and soul. For example:
1. ensure more purposeful legislation on the environment (eg Tas)
2. soften moralistic proposals from the religious freaks in the ALP.
3. try to ensure ALP does really “tear up Workchoices”
4. work to reject current and future draconian ‘anti-terrrorism’ measures.
5. look after the poor and working poor, say on the tax cuts details.
Who could disagree with that?
Or for being ‘deliberately barren’, or regarding JWH and him ‘tolerating’ homosexuality…….
Why “sadly” re the demise of the Dems, William?
Aside from Bartlett (who has been great), I wouldnt give ya tuppence for em.
He’s dead mate, get over it.
It was champagne comedy swing lowe – in the 10 things you didn’t know about Jim section it was mentioned he “has a big chuckle!” What a swell guy!
Wow wow wee waa! Hi five!
Sure, inappropriate comments are inappropriate whichever dope utters them – “left” or “right”.
Having said that sexism is a charge that is often used to disguise a great many things including rank nepotism and incompetence.
Online survery of who had the best launch:
SMH on 6,487 responses:
Rudd 80%
Howard 20%
ABC 1229 votes counted
John Howard 66%
Kevin Rudd 34%
Looks the ABC has a ‘leftwing” bias then?
26 Crikey- I think your balance of power argument is quite popular in SA. We are feeling a bit left out of the pork-barrelling (everyone seems certain of 3 seat swing) and there are lots saying if SA holds the BOP with minor parties we can pork-barrel.
No 44
Communism never has worked and never will work, as much as I cherish your support.
ESJ, it’s a sexist and misogynist thing to say. It bewliders me that rusted on Libs think that the Labor party and ‘trade union bosses’ have a monopoly on this kind of behaviour. In my experience, Liberals, particulalrly of the right wing variety, and then especially of the right wing religious variety, are the worst.
Lets see the LNP come up with a woman as deputy leader (or in any leadership role) before we get too excited about ALP ’sexism’, hmmmm?
Two points:
1. The Lambert link suggests Labor gets 97. I had forecast 81. This might be the only time in my life when I am happy to be proved outrageously pathetically wrong.
2. This whole working class unionist vs. middle class unionist debate is a hollow sham. Tories don’t like Labor, full stop. They don’t like it in a working class form and they don’t like it in a middle class form. I will, however, be very pleased (again) to be proven wrong – perhaps some of the mendacious and historically illiterate Tory blatherskites and provocateurs on here can post examples of the encomiums that flowed from their side when Bill McKell was appointed GG. I seem to recall that puffed-up toad Menzies calling it disgraceful. Give us a break – really.
Isabella, one does not need to be sexist or a pig to want to attack Julie Bishop at a political level.
She has been a completely ineffectual minister for Higher Education. She has basically done zip apart from continuing Nelsons bad policy. No initiatives of her own.She is also a lawyer and so from that most parasitic of professions.
I don’t recall anything special about the shape of her eyes, but one thing that does annoy me is the stunned rabbit expression she seems to wear in front of the TV cameras when being interviewed. She doesn’t seem to have it when you see her on the box and she is not the center of attention, weird. And a liability for her image i think.
Still, all probably academic as she’s a Liberal Party woman, and that means she’ll get used, set up and stabbed in the back, before she is in within spitting distance of a leadership position. If she survives this election anyway.
Anthony Green had some great stuff to say on the Greens vote being comitted and the Democrats not, in yesterdays thread re senate polls.
He said the greens upper and lower house votes match and ere normally a percent or two above the polling but you cant find a democrat voter in polling and their upper house vote is far superior to their lower house.
He said they are more or less left with last minute porrly thought out protest votes above the line in the upper house.
Worth a look if you haven’t them (the comments) yet
Arbie Jay and others,
One point can someone pick up from the other thread, can we expose this nonsense about the danger of “wall-to-wall” Labor govenments at State and Federal level? States can’t stop the Federal Government, only the Senate can. Even if Rud wins, he wil have to negotiate with Greens, Independants and any surviving Democrats to pas legislation. His power wil be limited. Regardless of this election, Howard on the other hand still has a Senate majority until next June. If he wins, he can do whatever he likes. This possibility is the real scare of this campaign, yet has rarely been discussed.
I hate to do it, but I hate to agree with Generic Person, but communism will never work. Unfortunately it goes completely against human biological nature. 2 million years of trying to f%&#k the other guy over
On a brighter note, a caption contest:
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r200276_766386.jpg
Julie Bishop, on Lateline, was hardly convincing.
Or even interested. Her eyes have calmed
For those who have already lost, she accepts her fate.
Relaxed, and undoubtedly comfortable.
Is she among the school of what? 96? who will keep their super and perks etc?
Come what may?
Generic Person – before you write of Marx – check this:
So much for class warfare…
Jai-mei – about Wilson?
Not at all. I think your friends at the CFMEU in Perth may care to differ. I am sure Fat Bastard will have ample material.
I’m off to dream about being punished (for being a Labor supporter) by a leather-clad Julie Bishop.
“Yes Miss, I have been a naughty boy”.
Dang she’s hot!
Why use sexist attacks on Julie Bishop? Just quote her. I suppose it’s because she’s a little on the dim side that people turn too easily to those sort of jokes.
Crikey Whitey,
From what I recall, Bishop is from the class of 98 – I think she won the seat of an ex-Liberal independent (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on this…)
LOL imacca -as opposed to Labor woman – and we all know what happens to them hey?
Geoff thanks for all the work and to the Bludger for posting it. I’ll run my statistical eye over it tomorrow and get back to you.
I was going to post this on the previous thread, but it took so long to get through the volume of insightful comment I missed out. But here it is anyway.
There is a continual concen by Labor supporters on this site that something will go wrong and all the evidence that has been in front of them for at least nine months will be false.
I think we should be thankful that the Rudd team did a careful analysis of the situation early in the year, developed a strategy to operate in that environment and have had the balls to stick with it right through.
To the extent people worry about something emegig that damage Labor, the same is true of the Government. From what I am hearing it is expected that an authorative report should come out tomorrow, which will call into question some significant Government spending over recent years.
It could be interesting!
I don’t think anyone proposed in this thread that it could work, or should even be tried.
It was G.P. that started crapping on about Howard holding onto the “working class”.
There you go again ShowsON – are you chronically constipated or what?
Edward seems to have abandoned his customary caution in making predictions. He is predicting that the ALP and Greens (including Xenophon, who is really an independent Green) between them will get four quotas (57%) in NSW, Vic, SA and Tas, leaving only Qld and WA for a three/three split. This is a big call, and implies an absolute electoral tsunami in the Reps. While I’m now quite certain Labor will win the election, I’m not willing to go this far.
Btw, let me go on record as saying that I don’t find Julie Bishop remotely attractive.
There are several Labor women currently in Parliament (eg, Kate Ellis) or running for Parliament (eg, Mia Hanshin) who are clearly more attractive than JB.
However, I still think the title for the most attractive women in any Parliament in Australia is Virginia Judge – current state member for Strathfield (and yes, I know I’m being parochial…)
Great contribution.
ShowsOn: I was just agreeing with that one statement. Had nothing to do with the rest of the thread
Ooops, that should be “William”, not “Edward”.
Do you reckon that Rudd really is playing with Howards head on a daily basis? I mean all the ‘me too-ism’ must have been driving JoHo & co nuts (planned… absolutely). So JoHo starts matching the Ruddite (alls fine in love ‘n’ war), but did Rudd see that coming (… hmmm…head games…) And now the Ruddite knew JoHo would launch before him and let him play his best cards, (nigh on all of them!) hoping like Latham he would cock up then all he had to do was come in with the ‘responsible thing to do’ for us the world and known universe! Now he must’ve seen that one coming, sadly, for JoHo he didn’t… or maybe he did and had no choice.. wedged?
64- Edward
The blokes at the CFMEU are one in a million. Literally if you got one million union members in a stadium somewhere there could only be one Joe MacDonald and one Kevin Reynolds- actually thats two in a million.
Using them or their comments as an example of all unions is to assume when Mick Malthouse says something on behalf of the collingwood footy club Mark Williams and Kevin Sheedy must have the same attitude. Sounds ridiculous, but it is the basis of the scare campaign.
70 Nuts in K- Please tell us more about the report
Swing Lowe, who’s your nomination for the most attractive man in any Parliament in Australia?
I’m with Lefty E (48), the Dems won’t be missed, for all their pluck in their early days; they leave a recent history of ess aitch eye tee house collusions with the Libs as their legacy. Good riddance.
42 Doctor Because everyone in the real world uses Windows, in spite of what the users of the other two OS think.
No 64
It is none the less interesting, but his economic theory is bogus as history has shown many a time.
BBD @ 79 – but you do admit that the CFMEU is a crap union?
73 I think the shrillness of the Libs today is saying that the ship is sunk and a tsunami is crashing in on them. I can’t remember when they were so excitable. Usually they have a smug, sureness but it is panic attack time for them now.
Adam,
I’m probably not qualified to come to any definite conclusions (given that I’m a heterosexual male).
However, I do recall that John Brogden (now former MP for Pittwater) was in the top 50 sexiest men in some magazine back in 1993. I remember seeing it in the “Stay In Touch” section of the SMH a while back.
Other than that, I’ve got no idea. What’s your nomination, Adam?
83 Chris B – bollocks – even Microsoft uses Linux servers.
Socrates
Agree re Howard and the Senate, if he got back in he can do a lot of harm in six months with total control of the senate.
Fielding is a disappointment, like Joyce all show and no action, only votes against the government when his vote doesn’t count.
Hypocritical too, looks like his preference deals with One Nation and Pauline Hanson could see a second FFP elected in Qld, I put a post on the Qld senate post to show via the ABC calculator how this can happen.
Only good policy Fielding had was a family impact statement, but even though Howard ignored it Fielding stayed loyal when it counted.
I’m logging off thanks for the talk.
The libs are now sunk. Nothing but an earth shattering f#*k up will save them.
All there will be is the scale of the loss. Reckon it will be all over before the WA poll closes.
67 Swing Lowe
You may well be right, as concerns Miss Bishop.
But she’ll still be all right, on the night?
I’d bet.
61 re caption
zzzzz huh? ohhh Hyacinth are you wearing rubber tonight?!!!
My nomination for ALP seats at the moment 100+
Um – what the hell is going on with disendorsed Labor candidates seeking revenge?
First La Trobe:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/ouch-labor-pains-in-latrobe-as-pargeter.html
Then Cowper:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Nats-want-Labor-investigated-in-Cowper/2007/11/14/1194766776217.html
Any ideas as to how these are going to affect the results in these seats?
84 El
I wouldn’t say that if i were a member- i would be very proud of my union because I would know they would go to any lengths to protect my safety.
I would say they have some very ordinary PR skills and an image problem that reflects badly on other unions trying to prtray a better image.
But i reiterate- Unions are democratic, the leaders are elected and can and will be voted out if the members chose.
That is the thing about the 70% scare campaign- Howards problem is ultimately with democracy, all of these MPs are voted in as politiciancs by voters in a democracy, you shouldn’t undermine that- criticise a candidate selction maybe, but once elected by the people, focus on thier reccord in parliament.
I would like to make remarks about the mental health of the voters who elect Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor, but i must respect thier right to do so.
The democrats deserve the defeat they are getting. With their split Senate tickets, despite their complaining about a coalition senate majority, they are the pinnacle of hypocrisy.
For all their faults, the greens at least are consistent and will actually preference the ALP above the Coalition.
The Lib shift obviously ended at midnight. Perhaps they have run out of money to fund bloggers through the graveyard shift.
Why Dick Adams of course. Now there’s a real man.
If someone can tell me where I cn find pics of MPs, I’m happy to rate them. Lindsay Tanner used to be a fave, but time hasn’t been that kind to him. Oh and he used to be an evil union boss, I think (boo, hiss). Mmmmmmm – power……
Crikey Whitey @ 90,
I think we’d all be shocked if Julie Bishop loses her seat this time around – particularly as she’s in WA.
Whether she sticks around if the Coalition is in Opposition is another matter, of course.
What a joke Jai-Mei truly is. All the intellect of the mildly amusing fictional character whose character she had to flog.
Deal with reality. Many people here attack various Coalition figures purely on the basis of their physical traits. Howard, Hockey, Ruddock and, especially, women like Bishop J. Yes, you disagree with their politics. But you play the lowest cards in the deck to make your point.
Why? Lack of class? Probably. Lack of cerebral ballast? Certainly. Just a bunch of sad cases that require a Labor-governed welfare state to enforce the sort of society you need to survive.
A society where the productive (and invariably Liberal voting) people work hard, employ people, and are taxed to the end of the world by a Labor Government that is purely interested in using this productivity to maintain its strong voter support base amongst the unemployable and the mediocre.
It’s ironic. Kevin Rudd and Labor need the productivity, initiative and flair of the Liberal Party’s natural constituency to make their policies even remotely plausible. If he relied on Labor’s natural constituency the Australian economy would collapse within a day.
61 caption contest – “Wake me on Nov 25th”
ps, we all know only the undead can sleep standing up.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r200276_766386.jpg
Adam,
Clearly you like your member larger than life.
Julie smashed Smith tonight.
Never send out a bore to sell a revolution it ain’t gonna wash with the masses.
Reasons Why Julie did well.
- explained we’d have no money for education if Labor had kept running up debts, because the tories have paid off the 96b we can spend it on education
- The Tory’s pledge to increase the 6 soon to be 10b endowment fund is now a me-too Rudd policy, an original Tory policy supported by Labor lock step.
- Computer access for Australian school students is at 100% and Labor’s plan to connect them to their broadband network won’t happen for 6 years until 2013.
- Explained how computer access is being dealt with cooperatively with the States and high speed broadband internet access used by tertiary institutions is being now trialled with schools.
Julie Bishop should the Libs lose or if Costello becomes PM will be a good chance for the Deputy Leadership and in my view tonight she outperformed Smith.
# 87 Not talking about servers, talking about general computers, which is why 80% of computers use Microsoft. If you dont believe me check the stats on any internet site.
Isabella, that’s just bollocks. So there are no hard working, left-leaning, educated people in Australia? What a ridiculous argument to make.
It seems to me you can’t see past your own superiority complex.
Labor has encouraged a “public service” class. NSW is a classic example.
In temporary defence of Julie Bishop, she has stopped Brendan Nelson’s practice of politically interfering in research grant decisions. Nelson appointed some right wing gatekeepers to the approval process and then personally overturned a number of independent recommendtions for political reasons. To her credit, Bishop has not repeated this practice.
But she has lied. Earlier this year she publicly claimed that she had research showing that performance pay for teachers had all sorts of benefits. When it finallly came out, the research sowed nothing of the sort.
And she has continued Nelson’s practice of micromanaging universities to ensure they maintain a politically correct line on employment relations. The party that claims it believes in letting the market decide is the most interventionist in history.
Even with a 7 or 8% swing, she will keep her seat, while many of her MInisterial colleagues go under.
Glen,
I don’t think Smith is going to be the frontman selling the Education Revolution to the masses – I reckon it’s going to be some bloke named Kevin…
But yes, I do agree with you on the point that Julie Bishop beat Smith in the debate tonight.
But does that really matter in the scheme of the election overall?
Nope
Computer access at 100%, Glen? meaning what exactly? Every Australian school has at least one computer?
Glen, have you worked out where the nuclear power stations are going to be placed yet. Has the market decided yet?
Shame about the Democrats.
I think I would also be more willing to believe Lambert’s mathematically discovered conclusion rather than any journalist. You know how they say “There WILL” be a narrowing etc. Perhaps it was the Government that created the myth and the media, as usual, didn’t question it?
I’m glad about the minor parties gaining more representation in the Senate too; even if the Democrats can’t keep the bastards honest hopefully the others will!
BBD @ 94 – the problem with unoin democracy is the same with problem with popular deomcracy: you get punters whose votes are swayed by clever positioning rather than awareness of the issues. As an example, take ‘Global Warming’. As an immediate issue, many CFMEU members’ jobs are threatened by action on global warming, but in the long term their interests and their families’ interests are served by taking a hit on carbon trading, renewables, etc.
No 107
All the left-leaning commentators are all demanding extra welfare for bludgers to maintain this ambiguous concept of “fairness”.
The only thing that is fair is keeping what you earn, not leeching from others.
Very interesting analysis by Geoff Lambert. I particularly liked the Monte Carlo simulation that shows random factors can generate patterns of noise around the trend that look pretty much like the actual poll data. This certainly lends support for his use of linear trends for the parts of the series within the “tip points”, and provides good reason for us not to get too fixated on the noise from poll to poll.
97 or 100 would be an amazing result, although I am in Hume, and I am sure that will be safe for Alby Schultz.
100- isobella
Productivity growth has fllen by 50% under howards watch
We were also about 40% above OECD average and now we are 16% below the OECD average.
This is as a result of reductions in R&D investment, Education and skills investment and introduction of an IR system that allows employers to focus on reducing wage costs as a way of increasing profits as opposed to rewarding productivity increases.
Try not to believe the spin without learning a bit about the facts
So how is this utopian Liberal voting society Rudd will lean on more produictive?
I suppose you believe Libs introduced decentralised wage increases too?
Dear god not more communist manifestos from Liberal hacks.
If that is the case, so has Howard – the federal public service is now 15% bigger than in 1996.
112 El
I agree mostly with what you are saying. I am a strong believer in “issues not insruments” or “Policies not Politicians”. But the problems you raise are all through our society.
Look at the increases in “share holder activism” as a comparison with similarities
Would it be too much to ask for even 10% of people to stay on topic?
Shows On – are you calling me a bore? Only my best friends call me that!
Well I wil sign off for the night by also agreeing with Generic Person: Communism doesn’t and cannot work. As British Biologist E. O. Wilson put it so neatly:
“Nice theory, wrong species”.
Only nine more sleeps till I hear the Rodent squeel. Its a beautiful day…
…Is this the right room for an argument?
119
haha No it isn’t- but i just paid, no you didn’t
No that next door.
Here’s a little story of 3 roosters.
Smithy from WA was a numbers man, as boring as batsh*t, but sure liked to count and sure liked to knife people in the back.
Conroy from VIC was a bit more colourful than the other two, but still as boring as batsh*t. He too sure liked to count and sure liked to knife people in the back.
Swanny from QLD was a numbers man, as boring as batsh*t, he was friends with Smithy and also liked to count and knife people in the back.
Turns out Conroy is best spent getting angry and pedantic on senate committees.
Swanny can stay on message and is showing he is quite smart. He may even make a reasonable treasurer.
Smithy will never make a good minister. He has the ability to lose people with his monotone voice like only Bob McMullin in his prime. He has arrogance in spades but judgement is another issue.
Bishop performed poorly tonight (her teacher-hating attitudes were bubbling just under the surface), however she still handled Smith adeptly and beat him soundly. Won’t win the coalition the election, but it should help to work out what to do with Smith.
Remember Meg Lees, her deal with JWH spelt the end of the Democrats.
You guys (and gals ??) confuse Communism with Marxism.. but I am having too many bad 80s uni flash backs… Can’t continue…
107 Lukas
The probable problem is indeed the micro management. And the market direction, as you rightly point to.
Cannot see the bigger picture.
Which is exactly what Kevin was talking of in his launch.
123
I remember Stot-Despoia before she was elected having a hot tub with a mate of mine at a uni party- that spelt the end of the democrats for me.
.
.
Jake,
You haven’t been visiting this site for very long have you?
Chris, IMHO the best thing they could do for schools would be to use Linux. I say that as a s/w engineer in the industry for 25+ years. On the other hand I’m using XP Pro at home right now
– but otherwise all open source s/w like Open Office.
Using Linux would save $$$, enhance the learning experience for the proto-nerds by using open-source s/w, and let the power users discover what’s possible.
BBD @ 126 – that might have recruited me…
I’m still trying to figure out the reasoning in this PDF.
I really should’ve paid more attention in stats.
With regard to cost of computers (and networks), Moore’s and Amdahl’s Laws plus the Chinese industrial behemoth will give us computers and networks dropping in price almost exponentially for the next 10 years.
Interestingly, government departments tend to pay vastly inflated prices (i.e. get ripped off blind or its operatives are fraudulently collusive with suppliers) for their computers so there public spend may not reflect the savings possible with the ever-diminishing cost of computers predicted by the above laws and predicated by technical advances in chip tech. On the other hand, there will be huge numbers of surplus hardly used computers dumped on the auction market for the rest of us not in school.
One of the interesting aspects of massively ramping up broadband and access to fast terminals for kids is that they are going to become largely independent of their teachers as the latter lose their monopoly over knowledge in the classroom.
Can’t be a bad thing in itself, but it’s the end of the world as we know it.
129
You havent met my mate
What’s wrong with a hot tub?
61 what’s that sign behind JWH – “Downsville”?
Isabella seems very comfortable on her vitriolic high horse.
I can’t help thinking of the stages of grief. Anger is the 3rd stage, isn’t it?
Hmm… a positive editorial for Labor in The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22759511-16741,00.html
Followed by a positive review of Labor’s launch by Paul Kelly:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22761248-12250,00.html
And amazingly enough, a pretty positive one from Dennis Shanahan:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22761088-17301,00.html
Great, Socrates!
We too will like that.
Sleep well, sleep long.
132 – that’s what beer goggles are for.
No, Townsville.
And the Caption – “Come the 25th, I can afford to have more than the Nanna Naps I have now”
paul k @ 127.
Long enough for my question to be rhetorical.
136 Just the openning for Rupert to get aboard the good ship Rudd.
Rupert’s looking rather rudderless.
I am not so saddened by the demise of the Democrats. I am actually quite happy that the three parties which gave us AWAs and the GST will receive their penance at this election.
I am also happy that it seems Bobby Brown and co. will have the balance of power in the senate and will pull the Labor policies ever so slightly to the left. Even if it is the feral left.
The campaign is won friends. Do no let the glib defiance of the defeated disarm you.
136
Surely there will be a retraction of these articles?
They can’t be based on facts.
Hey has anyone actually figure out that if voters were concerned about the economy being destroyed by ALP (or union influence of ALP) that Libs would be 20 points ahead?
Any danger they might get that message and save their money on the TV ads, they are getting pretty ridiculous don’t you think?
Sorry to bring the thread back to the topic, but I think that the PDF seems to point to the new voting class – the “Rudd Liberals”, in the Coalition non-marginals. I think the previous term, “doctors wives” needs to be binned. It is a bit derisive and patronising.
Thanks to Mr Lambert. I am going to go to sleep practising my new words for the day – kleptokurtic (sounds like stolen yoghurt) and heteroscedastic.
I am going to heteroskedaddle now.
141 – have a squiz at this:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Rudd-Costello-meet-News-Ltd-executives/2007/11/08/1194329401260.html
A friend of mine who was a former ALP Upper House member here in WA many years ago, was telling me that she was at the movies here in Midland (part of HaslucK and Pearce) and saw an ad for the libs – was very slick and well produced.
Are these ads national, or only in Marginal seaets ?
BBD-Izzy is not interested in reasoned argument. Just ranting.Everybody knows its only the ALP that has the guts and the ideas to do things for this country. After Mondays effort Howard is doing his best to reinvent himself as a modern day Beveridge. He has truly become the champion of the welfare state. So ironic. Frankly Im ashamed that the ALP have been outflanked on the concept of welfare for all and not just the poor. Old Peter Walsh did his best to dismantle middle class welfare in the Hawke era and Rattus is doing his best to bring it back.
Another irony is that when he was thrown out of office in 83 he left us with the bottom of the harbour tax schemes and when he’s off to his well earned retirement home in a couple of weeks he would have again tired to legalise tax evasion with his home savings accounts. At least he’s consistent.
A spectre is haunting the Liberals, the spectre of Opposition. Marx is Boss.
147
Specifically only in marginal seats the libs are concerned about.
They have just started showing up in Canning or about Canning on TV in the last couple of days.
The Hasluck ads have all but disapeared now, but not because Lib concern has ebbed I expect.
146.. All the pieces will be in place soon. JWH might be the last to know.
Tell me I’m dreamin’!
I’ve just read those GG oped’s and it’s truly amazing, they’ve come round to the reality that the rodent is dead, and there is indeed a new leader before us.
Whoa! That’s it, all bar the voting, and the end of a miserable little man’s mendacious hold over the electorate. It’s goodbye to kissing the ass of that faux Texan, it’s goodbye to victimising the helpless for political advantage, and it’s goodbye to the ‘born to rule’ mindset that oozes out the likes of Abbott and Costello.
Bring it on!
145 – did you mean leptokurtic?
http://tinyurl.com/35qw2l
liberal party ‘natural constituency’ is that like something God gave you or did you inherit it from mummy and daddy?
Sweetheart you mob lose on 24th take a look around Australia and then tell me where your natural constituency is princess.
A bit of stress and you vilify hard-working Australians and make tabitha begin to look like the better more imaginative, more logical writer … nighty nite hun.
151
A bit more campaigning to go Kirri, lets not drop the ball.
If you or anyone else reading this is not yet signed up to help out on polling day, call your local prefered political party office (or the Your Rights @ Work campaign) and get on board.
Progressive party supporters should enjoy the experience i susspect.
DGW,
me-too, am predicting shortish careers for the 3 Roosters.
Smith IS as boring as batsh*t and is on borrowed time.
Conroy will forever dwell in the mediocrity that is Steve Conroy.
Swan will be replaced by Tanner and Emerson as soon as a reasonable time has elapsed (probably the first term).
El nino, oops yes. Just lost the spelling bee. Yes, must go to bed (and drop the k).
leptokurtic leptokurtic leptokurtic keptolurti zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
146
Crazy paving. JWH.
I did have a more considered and reasoned response, munz, but lost it somewhere.
Given the circumstances – I kind of like ‘kleptokurtic’ – it has a certain irony.
Rudd underspending them has really annoyed the Tories. They’re all whining and making up new numbers tonight. Bahaha!
As if they couldnt see that coming!
They’ve been such a pushover this election. Rudd’ s been all over them like a rash.
Isabella, the mask slips.
I particularly like the honesty of your class hatred. My people KNOW your people think like this; but it’s so good to hear it said occasionally. Thanks.
What’s happened to Overington at the GG? She has gone awfully quiet…
She’s getting some new colours.
I warned you all months ago what a clever pixie the Ruddster is – I said he wouldn’t wedged and he wouldn’t be outsmarted by anyone, and Glen and Edward and all their orcs snarled and snorted, but I was right. The Reign of the Ruddster is about to begin. Resistance is futile.
Swing Lowe @ #93
From the SMH article, it sounds like the Nats are really worried about this seat.
My sources in this seat (conservative type people who aren’t involved in politics) tell me that work choices is hated big time. The centrelink harrassment of single mothers is also working against the Nats.
I can’t be sure that this is the case throughout the electorate, as my contacts are all in one area.
William – I followed with interest your moderation on the previous thread, as you sought on a number of occasions to maintain a reasonable level of decorum on this site. My impression was that you had decided no further over the top language or personal abuse would be tolerated.
If I am correct in that observation, I was wondering how Isabella’s little contribution in post #6 would fit in with those aims, especially the following:
“Once again the ALP shows its hypocrisy. The do-gooders are really just the heirs to the throne of the racist, sexist, brain-dead thugs and morons of the trade union movement”.
Isabella also had some choice words to say a day or so back, describing Labor voters as dole bludging scum bags, or something very similar.
In the interests of clarity can you please advise if you find this kind of language an acceptable form of “debate”.
Tory C
The Polls ask who is a better economic manager.
I susspect if the Morgan or newspolls had asked “do you believe Rudd will wreck the economy” the no vote would have been equal to or higher than the ALP primary.
The same would be said for “do you believe Rudd would more evenly share the benefits of a strong economy”
And also “do you believe Rudd would consider a longer term future when making decisons about managing the economy”
I find when you compare an issues question to the primary of that party you get a clearer idea. Recent polling I am aware of showed that although 60%+ of the poulation believed the ALP are union influenced only 32% considered it a concern- less than the Lib primnary vote.
Voters were actually more concerned that 100% of the Lib front bench voted for workchoices and the figure was much higher than the ALP primary vote.
Adam @ 162
It is reasonable to say that Rudd has sold out for the sake of expediency though?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/green-businessman-bids-to-oust-howard/2007/11/14/1194766771843.html
I highly encourage everyone to do all they can to get Howard kicked out of his seat.
The time is now.
Jake: No.
Re #145 – KeepingALidOnIt, I agree that ‘doctors’ wives’ is derisive and patronising, but it is important to realise that this is the term which has been used for some years by the Liberals themselves to dismiss small-’l’ liberal concerns about human rights. It’s this very derisive dismissal of what used to be the Liberal support base, and concentration for some years on racist & xenophobic policies to appeal to marginal seat swinging voters which is going to lose a whole string of safe seats, while WorkChoices loses the marginals.
The ‘doctors’ wives’ who have been deserting the Coalition in increasing numbers since the 2001 election are actually men and women who live in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne or Sydney’s North Shore, and work as professionals or in the financial services sector. They are beneficiaries of the globalised economy. They can’t stomach Tampa, immigration detention centres, and not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Watch the seats of North Sydney, Warringah, Kooyong and Higgins on election night. All four have swung quite hard (in relative terms compared to the average swing in the particular State) against the Government at the last two elections.
I’m gobsmacked. The GG commentators have finally seen the writing on the wall.
I’m suspecting uncle Rupert has had a quiet word…
165
Rudd has patrolled the fence line built along the 55% mark of popular policy. If howard encroached on this line, Rudd trodd on his toes with the Me-too.
Howard the trod on his toes and so on and so forth.
The problem for Howard is that firstly he was fighting over the 55/45 line and not the 50/50 line and secondly he didn’t see Rudd jump over his side today and take territory he though he wouldn’t need to defend i.e fiscal responsability.
Rudd may now be walking the 56/44 or better line. At the very least he doesn’t need to worry about the 55/45 line being breached anymore
geez it must be my bed time- night all.
@85
I agree Steve,I’ve never seen the bitterness from the Libs like this before either.
The good ship Titanic is rapidly nearing the iceberg with Howard et al frantically rearranging the deck chairs,there’s little else for them to do.
As you can see I’m a Queenslander,and we are different when it comes to our politics,the states political history proves that.
Well,we are going to be different on the 24/11 as well.Rudd is a Queenslander and that IS worth a lot up here.We want a Queenslander for PM,make no bones about it and we are going to elect one.Kevin Rudd will win upwards of 10 seats,maybe even more, Ryan is gone,and if the leafy suburbs are shifting you know where this is heading??
This state almost alone will put Rudd into power and don’t doubt it for one minute.
http://getup.org.au/promisewatch/
Promisewatch, a great concept for democracy and accountability.
For those near Bennelong who want to do their part to get rid of John Howard
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/Bennelong
Most polling during elections has been pretty spot on in picking the winner. When was the last election where the polling was out of whack?
One that I can remember is Kennett at the Victorian Election where he is was the standout favourite and lost. Most other state elections have ended up as the polls predicted.
I know that Federal Election tend to be a lot tighter and too close to call but again the standout is probably Keating’s unexpected win in 93.
With the polling being so definitive this time, it is hard to see them being that far off the eventual outcome. Any unlikely comeback would have to write new records.
Glen
The interesting thing about Julie Bishop tonight was that she mostly did not talk about education. She tried the line of mimicking Howard.
Her point about computer access started with the line “State governments have provided…”. These are of course the same State Governments who have been so bad at providing services. Now she admits Labor governments actually have achieved something.
Let’s face it Bishop is out of her depth, she provides no leadership to this country in education, hasn’t a clue!
I don’t think she would remember what a school looks like or what it is for.
To professional educators she is a joke.
Adam he’s only been able to do this because he’s,
Me-tooed any popular Tory policy, thus selling out core Labor beliefs.
Avoided media scrutiny (thanks to a weak media who want to see Howard lose)
Had his Labor mates in the States block or trash any worthwhile initiative (NT, 10b Water Plan)
Runs his policies by a PR company to gage how much support they’ll have.
Making old and outdated policies seem new and fresh when they’re old.
Been able to hide his backbenchers and his shadow ministers enough so that all the focus is on Rudd, hence we’ve been sold a pig in a poke and we’ll all be sorry should we wake up with Krudd all over our faces should our economy take a turn for the worst if they take over.
169 The daily “memo” will have it covered.
Isabella, for all you conservatives’ talk about individual freedoms, you’re pretty quick to lump us all into one bunch. I could just as easily point at Pauline Hanson and say, “All right-wingers are like this!” But that would be just as inane as your post.
Bob from Bonner 171 – I’m from Moreton (howdly-doodly neighbour) and just plonked my Sportingbet $100 freebie on Ryan. Don’t know if Daniels will get up but got to be a good chance. I’ll be watching Petrie too but that will be harder. Both you and I will be in Labor seats come the 25th, I’m confident of that much … why am I still nervous though …
Glen: what absolute nonsense
Back spreading more lies again, even after they’ve been debunked.
You’re regressing from Stage 4 bargaining, back to Stage 1 Denial
A rebuttal:
1. The Entire Liberal campaign launch was a me-too of ALP policy.
2. Shanahan, Albrechtsen, Ackerman, Overington, Kelly, Bolt, Fran Kelly, Speer.
Can you name half as many biased left wing commentators?
3. Two words – Textor Crosby
4. Howard is just old and hasn’t come up with a single new policy.
5. Haven’t heard from Andrews and Ruddock recently. What positions do they hold again? And we have rising interest rates. What is the Howard solution? Spend more. Just like his solution to the drought, is government advertising and prayer.
Come back when you want your specious arguments dismantled again.
It makes the Liberals look really bad.
Oh Glen, really, stop feeding the chooks! It does not become you.
Colin with respect if she is such a joke i hate to think how you viewed Stephen Smith’s performance tonight, a revolution hah ill take the Tsar any day mate!
Anyway to professional educations 85% of them who vote for the left i hardly consider their opinions of her as valid considering they pander to the State ALP Government’s who’ve let many public schools down so badly and who rarely have the ticker to attack the ALP Ministers at least the Teachers Unions are like that anyway.
She outperformed Smith last night, and like McClelland and Garrett and Swan will have a different portfolio after 4months in a Rudd government. Not even Br’er Rabbit could get Smith out of the pickle his woeful performance has got him into.
Seriously Colin he was as boring if not more boring than Andrew Robb on lateline zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz at least Bishop is excited about education and has a good plan for the future for education what does Smith have lets see,
a broadband plan not available to students until 2013 probably later.
computers for students at schools when 100% have computer access, and these computers Rudd is offering can’t be taken home.
doesn’t know what to do with the 7b it saved from not having any serious announcements for its launch? maybe they’ll pay back the Unions if they win???
Not much a revolution more like a badly planned revolt that was put down with 2 hours…
Adam – Rather blunt answer. I think he has, but I assume most Laborites are hoping that what Garrett said was the truth. I’m one of them [one of the hopers, not a Laborite]. As my mate constantly reminds me “you can be principled and stay in opposition or pragmatic and actually make changes in government.” I guess he has a point. But you can’t deny Labor is further right than ever.
As usual my timing probably sucks, but.. anyone know when the next poll(s) will be?
Who cares how good she is, she’ll be sitting to the left of the speaker’s chair when parliament next sits.
And if you are any guide, illiterate vote for the Liberals.
Wow, you are learning! Yous aid “Rudd government”. Very good!
Idiot.
And it will be passed by the parliament. Suffer Glen – you lose.
From the Doctor’s Union.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091185.htm?section=justin
Asanque at 180 – What has happened to Fran Kelly? She never used to be right-wing (when she was on Radio National about 6-7 years ago – i’ve been out of the country for a while)…..
Jake, perhaps so. But if so its a reflection of society as a whole. Try change that.
Probably 2 Morgan’s tomorrow – face to face and phone.
Probably a Nielsen leaked on Lateline tomorrow night.
If the last two weeks is a guide, there will be a Galaxy poll in an close marginal seat leaked on Lateline, then published on Sunday.
North Sydney perhaps? Or maybe Eden-Monaro given its reputation as a Bell-Weather.
adam @ 162
very cocky post and boast there.
especially coming from someone who was ridiculing others for being confident of comfortable victory only weeks ago.
if i recall, you were in about the 78 seat margin weren’t you?
Mad Cow,
AC Nielsen Poll due on 16/11
paul.. does that mean the final nielsen wil be at the end of next week, and are they doing another online poll.. or a combined one?
any idea about galaxy?
tah dude
This is the lead story at the GG as of Now:
Rudd’s smart nation drive
“Matthew Franklin, Chief political correspondent”
KEVIN Rudd has gambled on austerity, boldly underspending John Howard’s “reckless” campaign promises.
methinks rodent cactus?
Glen
What plan does she have?
Oh I remember.
We will revitalize history teaching by increasing the narrative and decreasing analysis, too dangerous to have students actually thinking. Introduce performance pay initiatives (proven failures in other countries) but not support the initiative with money, some salaries will have to decrease. This is not standards based but some waffle about student results. She could not even quantify this one.
She could not even get that one past MCEETYA.
I find it reprehensible that you should so easily dismiss a group of professionals as you do. Is it the same with nurses? What about the AMA? Oh I forgot doctors are still male in the majority but professional groups that are dominated by women can be attacked by anyone.
The lack of respect for a group of highly trained people held by the right is astonishing.
More at the GG:
Paul Kelly “ALP wins the high ground on economy” (!!!!)
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/paulkelly/index.php/theaustralian/comments/alp_wins_the_high_ground_on_economy/
Graham Young: “the Liberal launch was a pretty effective curtain-raiser for Labor”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22761092-5013480,00.html
wysiwyg – Maybe they can’t be called the GG anymore? They seem to be acting moderately. Perhaps the old lizard Rupert has had a word…
ShowsON
YES!
Translation: “My God! They’re spending $$$ like there’s no tomorrow! We’d better get in on this action!”
The true test of whether the GG and the rest of News Ltd. papers have turned to back Rudd is their editorial line over the next couple of days. If editorials and articles come out either in favour of Labor or just more balanced, then Murdoch has given the orders. The reason I say this is that the GG has written some unusually glowing stuff for Labor before, but it only ever lasted for one day, and only on a couple of days this year.
At any rate, it is good to at least see the GG finally acknowledge some truths about Howard’s recklessness. Of course, we have all known about it for a LONG time now.
Well said Bob from Bonner. Yes Sir QLD going big for the local lad!
By the way who doing the hand out ‘how to vote’ & scruitineering o Sat 24th? … I AM!
I can imagine the Exclusive Brethren do not like Rudd’s pitch on computers. They don’t use computers or modern technology in their schools
This explains why Howard, under pressure/influence by the Exclusive Brethren, shy away from computers?!? Howard and his loyal supporters EB desperately dwell on the old/past
aussieguru re booth work: ME TOO
Me in Griffith for Captain Rudd!
Sorry Mad Cow, I just saw your question at #192.
Their web site doesn’t give any detail. I just know there is supposed to be one on Friday but they haven’t said anymore about it.
I am in Pearce – wheelchair and all, I wonder if it wil be like the 2005 State Election where the libs packed up the Henley Broook Hallstuff at 5.30pm and then threw the campaign poster of Colin Barnett in the bin ?
Oh and speaking of posters, will the Libs be having posters of Howard at the booths, or will they be hidden like the rest of the campaign ?
guru, I’m next door in Moreton – BTW Hawkie is here today, at at Sunnybank Plaza (Thu 5:30-6:30). I plan to leave work early (!) so I can get there and shake his hand … should be enough to keep me going over the nervous nine days (single figures now, yes!)
ShowsOn.. hopefully that marginal poll will be Paterson
This will upset the Cricket Tragic Howard. Imagine if An Aussie Cricketer was charged under OUR laws ?
“PAKISTANI police said early today that cricket legend Imran Khan will be be charged under anti-terrorism legislation following his arrest last night.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22762118-601,00.html
Yes Frank, it puts earlier talk about Howard being a dictator in its rightful place. Though I think there may be a place for Kevin Andrews over there …
And the Daily Terror’s Headline ?
more GG articles:
dennis shanahan: leader displays newfound boldness;
IN the ultimate act of me-tooism, Kevin Rudd has adopted one of John Howard’s oldest and most trusted tactics – turning a weakness into a strength.
paul kelly: ALP wins the high ground on economy;
KEVIN Rudd has gone for restraint. In a policy speech that gives priority to fiscal virtue, anti-inflation and Reserve Bank warnings, he has seized the economic high ground.
The Ruddslide is on, I’m betting 110+ seats
“The ANZ Bank’s chief economist, Saul Eslake, was moved to quote the Bible: “There is more joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth than over the 99 who stay in the fold.”
“Rudd’s move challenges the stereotype that Labor is reckless with public money. It puts the conservative party in the embarrassing position of being the less responsible. As Eslake said: “In this respect, Kevin Rudd is more conservative than John Howard.” ”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-puts-a-plug-in-the-political-porkathon/2007/11/14/1194766770538.html
This is Saul Eslake, Tories. Saul Eslake, who used to be a leading light in the Liberal Party in Victoria and the ACT.
http://www.canberraliberals.org.au/default.cfm?action=content&ID=20
Read his words, then go forth, and sin no more.
In a rare act I bought a treeware Fin Review (Wed). Mainly because Laura Tingle (good name that!) has caught my attention lately. They point out that Howard’s spending so far has put in doubt his pledge to keep 1% surplus. He is betting that revenue will exceed forecasts, otherwise the pledge will be broken. The Fin seems to be taking a (subtly) dim view of all this …
Contenders for rope-a-dope of 2007:
- Danielle Ecuyer over Caroline Overington
- Kevin Rudd over John Howard
More nominations?
I’m way behind in reading but i felt the need to post – i was listening to AM radio 702 (666 canberra) last night and i’m sure i heard someone say that joe hockey had been a student unionist (leading?) protests – SURELY he’s not a union thug (though he does have the build for it)
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=46991
This is the Sydney Daily Telegraphs online lead story as of now:
Responsible Rudd’s future plan:
KEVIN Rudd yesterday launched his campaign with a promise to buy a classroom computer for every high school pupil – announcing policies that would cost $2.3 billion over four years.
rupert has given the directive: howies GONE!!!!
I’m a booth captain in Perth (the seat). This basically means getting there at 6.00am to put up the paraphernalia, do nothing all day (ie be “in charge” of the volunteers), rip down the paraphernalia at 5.30pm or so, front up to the returning officer to ensure I’m behind locked doors as scrutineer for the count (ALP costume duly removed) and then go and get pickled at the Civic Hotel after 7.30 or so.
I forgot to mention sunburn and sneaking off to find a radio to listen to at about 5:00 for the eastern states results.
6am? Over here in Sydney electorates the bulk of us are going to get there at 7pm on the 23rd to get the best spots then sleep in our cars…
Actually at the 2005 State Election in Swan Hills, there were flying squads of vollies who actually set up the booths at 4.30pm on the Friday Arvo, and actually having shifts to guard said booths till the morning, thus ensuring they had prime position.
Jeez, I’m only planning to spend 6 hrs in the Brisbane sun, then off to the pub … advantage of being a volunteer not a party member
It’s just another 24 hours after having spent the last 3 months doing 5-6 day weeks in marginals (and failing uni exams, woohoo)
Nice try John. Not.
I’m a party member (for the ALP), and I’m only doing the arvo shift, then going to the party as well, and will probably get my mug on TV (it’s the combined Hasluck/Pearce party like last election – I’ll be the one with Beard & Mo and in a Wheelchair with a Hand-Held Communications reciever around my waist
Apparently I was Seven’s coverage at the 2004 poll, and was behind Jaye Radisich at the 2005 State Election, now THAT was a surprise win , 0.3% and she got a 3% swing to boot
I’m surprised that the Libs haven’t mentioned that the kiddies will be stalked by pedos in the classroom as they surf the intertubes and they will download “Bomb making Recipies” and download Pr0n.
Banking online can lead to wanking online.
The JWH line just caught my eye because it had such a ring of sincerity
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22759834-952,00.html
I’ll be looking for you on The Night, Frank – give us a wave ok? And if you say “Nantucket Sleigh Ride” I’ll read your lips
BTW I think I might finally join the ALP … what’s the point in being rusted on without getting more involved, I arsk meself.
Anyway I must soon away to bed even tho it’s only 1am here in the non-DST state … ‘night all.
1am^H^H^H2am (and starting to take effect…)
Thats a scary picture Frank..LOL!…Just kidding – God bless
Geoff’s projection seems to back up Malcolm Mackerras’s, Mumble’s and Possum’s predictions of a Labor haul of 90+ seats. This makes my projection of 80 seats for Labor seem very pessimistic indeed.
Oh well, come October 24 my relatively low expectations will make me ecstatic if Labor wins seats I haven’t predicted will fall to them such as Liechhardt, Petrie, Corangamite, McMillan and of course Bennelong!
Oops I meant November 24. The campaign has gone on for too long!
After having read the parties’ launches, I can confidently say one thing: Labor has passed another hurdle.
Perhaps in two weeks, I will be able to look on the 11 long years of Howard’s dominance as a set of bad memories, rather than the present.
Hope in the future may be reborn, after a decade of a small man trying to scare us to death every three years to hold on to power. A belief in something greater than ourselves may spark within us again, and we, as a people, may once again be able to appreciate the difficulties of others, instead of deriding them for their misfortune. The word “compassion” may cease to be a dirty word in politics. Once again, as Paul Keating noted, Australia might reach out for the disposessed, the poor and the refugees from war and persecution (I’ve always loved the Redfern address). We may just be able to move into the twenty-first century, looking to build a better future while acknowledging the mistakes of the past.
For all these reasons and more, I urge every human being in this great land to vote against the Liberal/National Coalition, wherever they are. I urge the people to force the Coalition to move away from the far right-wing of politics, and back towards the social unity and compassion exhibited by Menzies, Fraser and Hewson. I urge the people of this land to repudiate neo-conservatism, the soulless and heartless ideology which counts human lives as being of no more value than the revenue which can be gained from them. I urge Australians everywhere to live up to the values of Australian society, which place friendship, unity and harmony above an extra few dollars in the back pocket.
Never will I have been so happy to have been proven wrong about my earlier predictions….if indeed I was wrong.
P.S. Pardons for the maudlinism back there, but I tend to be somewhat emotional when social justice issues come up.
wysiwig @ 218
I find the Fin Review the most balanced of the MSM. They have a good portfolio of writers and contributors (Laura Tingle, Lenore Taylor, Brian Toohey, John Quiggin and John Hewson). I ignore Michael Baume and the honchos from the IPA.
Noam Chomsky advises reading the financial press to get a “realistic” view of the world. He reasons that money making is too serious a business to let ideology and rhetoric get in the way!
Mathew Cole @ 238
Well said! I agree! I concur!
“Green businessman bids to oust Howard”
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/14/1194766771843.html
NPC schedule for the remainder of the campaign.
Today on Thursday, the Foreign Ministers debate at midday. Wednesday next week, Rudd is the speaker. Thursday, Howard is the speaker.
Rudd and Howard start at 12:30. I believe that the FM’s will start at that time as well. All will be shown on Sky I am sure, probably ABC as well.
Edward ST J
If you read what I wrote about Bishop more astutely you would have seen I was careful not to be sexist or criticise her for her looks: I did say she looks freaky with those eyes of hers, but I also said she is not responsible for her God given looks. What I also said was she needs to address the sour-puss image she has and I also made a negative comment about Smith in the same vein.
Tabitha
Who cares what you think: you criticise people for being sexist or whatever and stereotyping her Bishop on the basis of looks or gender, then you launch into an equally stereotypical attack on people from a different world veiw to yours. Hypocrite. Bitter that you could taste of a decade in the wilderness are we ?
Glen
Yes Bishop did better than Smith last night on Lateline, but it will not make any difference in terms of momentum for the Coalition.
Have you or others you know been able to find ‘the narrowing’ through your binoculars. Mate, Shanahan does NOT count, he is sleeping with Goldilocks dolls and sleeps in a Kevin 2010 (Andrews) T shirt.
I am not going to rub your face in it Glen, you have stuck around copped your due when your lot failed time and time again to get any election momentum or policy up and running over the past few months> Your team will lose this election sir, but I will not be kicking you when you are down.
I will save my base moments for the likes of Edward St John when he gets all elitist and continues his diatribe against Labor and union connections, Tabitha because she/he is just rediculous.
LTEP
Ironically, I will save most my bile for LTEP who has pissed me off with his constant negative assessment and speculations about Labor’s chances at this election: Even yesterday LTEP was STILL claiming the Coalition could still win this election.
For someone who claims NOT to be a Liberal and/or not having an anti-Labor world veiw, LTEP gets my vote for the most miserable, pessimistic and, therefore, the second most useless contribution to the election debate here, after mine of course.
You may not be a Liberal troll LTEP, but I think I would have preferred a Liberal troll to someone who constantly sought to blow out the candles on peoples celebrations of mile stone after mile stone indicating a Labor victory at this election.
I would rather drink with a ‘what you see is what you get’ Liberal party troll or hack than with someone you can never be sure of and who has nothing positive to say about just about anything.
It may well be time to say ado to this blogspace for now: the bleeding blue bloods are going to get extremely nasty and horrid to talk to for a while and some on the other side of the fence are going to become equally intolerable, like me. Best leave it all unsaid, save for this comment : JWH Deserves to lose this election, whether it happens or not may be another issue but I am done with that ass&***.
Mathew Cole @ 238,
I share at least some of your concerns about the direction of Australia.
I don’t know how much to blame Howard though, and I don’t think a Labor government will make any difference whatsoever. I’ve never seen a more cynical government than the current NSW government.
Well said BB
Just listening to RN. Chris Ullmann, not one of my favourite journos, nevertheless came up with a beauty:
“The vampire could still get out of the coffin”
LOL.
Front page of the The Daily Telegraph.
“Pennies from Kevin”
Rudd’s responsible plan for a smarter future
Another sign this election war thing is over…..
Thanks for the analysis of me Bluebottle. Needless to say I won’t be losing any sleep over it.
re Democrats
Hard to see how this Party will have any Senate representation after this election. It’s a sad story when you think what they have achieved over the past 30 years. I once met Janine Haines – she was a very nice person who inspired me to become ‘involved’ in politics.
However, it looks like the Greens will take on the sole left of Labor role in the Senate.
You are very welcome LTEP. I dont know if you bothered to read my Dons Party scenario assessment on another thread but I suggest it may be worth reading IF you are seriously hoping/wishing for a change of Government in 2007.
Bluebottle – very impressive. Thank you.
Said as he sms on his Iphone based on another unix derivative.
P.S. This message is posted in the real world from a client running linux.
Unfortunately I have to work for a living so I will be a careful silent observer here for a few days. Thank you to those who agree with my comments earlier today.
LTEP please give a considered response to the Dons Party scenario if you wish to discuss/debate your doomsday approach to politics with me further.
Cheers
Bluebottle.
When I came back to yesterday’s thread last night, I saw the posts going up but couldn’t get past page three.
This has happened three times on this site.
I think my computer has been compromised… yet again, unless it happened from this end.
Any ideas people?
Not the other Tim @ 61, I’m afraid GP would never agree with you on that point, as he would no doubt insist that people could not have been around for 2 million years, since the whole lot is only 5000 years old.
Hey, can anyone please let me know what will be the best way to follow the election from the UK? Will the ABC be streaming anything live?
dogford Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 7:45 am
I suspect there will be running commentary on pollbludger.
Re 246,
Amused Says:
In an alternate universe
more on the seachange over at casa del murdoch…
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22759896-5000117,00.html
Steve Lewis in the Hun:
While election campaigns are full of lies and false promises, Rudd has delivered on his mantra: new leadership.
…
New leadership?
How many Labor leaders have stood before the party faithful and boasted of spending $7 billion less than the Coalition parties?
This could be a watershed moment for a Labor Party whose street cred has been undermined by concerns it would blow the budget.
…
In 2004, Mark Latham simply vacated the field when challenged by the Government’s bully boys.
Rudd has shown he is up to the challenge and will not make the same mistake.
…
This was a victory for economic common sense. Labor has accepted the Reserve Bank argument: that now is not the time to be pump-priming an economy already running at full steam.
Rudd has rejected the big giveaway (perfected by John Howard over successive elections) and instead pledged to bank these proceeds into the Budget surplus.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens would have been quietly cheering from his Sydney CBD office.
Yesterday’s campaign launch answers the challenge of critics who believe Labor will wreck the economy.
The ALP still has too much union lead in its saddle bags, but just don’t call its leader a profligate spendthrift.
That charge, he hopes, just won’t stick.
In the last month of the 2004 Presidential election, a stats professor at Princeton University ran a similar historical analysis to Geoff Lambert’s here, and the Prof nailed the final national poplular vote percentages on the head.
However, he had Kerry with the larger percentage. Where his data failed him was that the American undecideds in ‘04 broke in the reverse direction from the historical stats.
Not saying that Lambert is wrong, and I ardently hope he’s correct based on the likelihood that our 2 Party Preferred historical data is more reliable than America’s undecided historical data, especially given the fact that American voting is not compulsory.
I’m still more inclined to follow the betting markets (except the obviously manipulated Bennelong market which makes Ms. McKew’s odds the most generous of any I’ve seen in 20 years of betting). Following the money, it appears that Labor’s win is more likely to have an 8 rather than a 9 for the first number.
Kevin Rudd gets a big seal of approval from Peter Hartcher:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/peter-hartcher/2007/11/14/1194766770538.html
That was very smart politics yesterday, outflanking Howard on his supposed ground of strength.
Well good morning to my fellow polling tragics.
A quick round of the news websites, both Fairfax and News Corp, and there is not a single negative headline on Rudd’s campaign launch, all pretty positive. Even the Oz had to admit that fiscal responsibility was the correct approach with a whiff of inflation in the air. George Megalogonis is negative, but that is buried by the positives from Paul Kelly and even Shanahan. Will we now finally see some criticism of Howard’s spending tactics? Andrew Bolt’s blog on the Rudd launch signalled the unconditional surrender of right wing hacks about 3pm yesterday afternoon. Now for the reinventing, so that they can still say “I told you so” on election night.
The Kirribilli squatter has started his backflip already. (He does know there is only nine days to go for people to forget what he said in the first four weeks?) Howard is quoted as saying that Rudd’s promises will actually cost more than his, but having boasted about rewards from a booming economy all campaign, it sounds hollow indeed. The various porkometers on news sites show Rudd underspending the coalition by from $9B to $11B over the whole campaign.
Howard has eight days to turn around a 10% 2PP lead, with no traction, all major campaign moves made, and the money (our money!) already spent. His campaign is dead in the water.
As someone hoping for Howard’s defeat, I for one would like to extend the olive branch by thanking Crosby Textor for their role in Howard’s campaign. The predictable scare tactic was pure gold for Labor when Rudd had warned of it from day one. The massive spend on promises in an inflationary climate lost them their one remaining piece of credibility – economic responsibility. Last I saw Brian Courtice (who?) on TV warning of Labor thuggery, on behalf of a party that still has Bill Heffernan in the Senate. Thanks guys. Whether its 20 seats lost or 30, we owe you a lot. Its doubly satisfying to know that you have probably milked the Liberal’s dry of millions in party campaign funds to guide them on the road to oblivion. That way they will have nothing left to rebuild with.
It is indeed a beautiful day. Only eightmore sleeps. Somene make sure Janet hands back the keys to Kirribilli promptly. After all, she can’t afford to buy the place in the current market.
Good stuff, Bluebottle. I enjoy your posts and your perspectivs from Qld.
Don’t be too hard on LTEP. You may have missed thathe was raised as a Fremantle supporter. In AFL parlance that is bound to lead to masochism and pessimism. It’s hard to translate that analogy for a northerner in rugby league. If you’re old enough, maybe North Sydney.
John Hunt, I wouldn’t worry too muchabout the pollsters getting it wrong. In Victoria in 99 they focused are the marginals. Although they predicted a movement to Labor, they concluded (as with 96) that Kennett would hold the marginals, which were mostly metro Melbourne. They were right. They just didn’t take into account the collapse in support in country and regional Victoria. They’ve learnt a bit from that.
Similarly, though a lot of people thought Keating was gone in 93, they weren’t so clear about that in the polls as they have been this time. In fact, in the final countdown I’m pretty sure Newspoll got it right (albeit I didn’t believe it at the time).
Overall result looks done and dusted to me. More interest in some of the “side shows” (not my terminology):
1. The Senate. Assuming that Labor + Greens will have control from 1/7/08 (which I think they will), the question arises of the second ACT spot (which changes hands, if required, straight away after the election). If the Libs have held onto the second ACT spot, then the Coalition will still be able to amend legislation in the Senate up to 30/6/08.
Whereas if they’ve lost the second ACT spot they’ll only be able to block things (with 38 votes) or amend with FF support (and they may struggle to get the latter, given Rudd’s social conservatism and what I assume will be FF’s desire to snuggle up to a new, powerful government). Being able to block, but not change, legislation, is probably the worst of all worlds for the Libs. They won’t want to block too much at all (very bad look against a popular government), but if they let stuff through, they share the blame if and when it goes wrong, and will be painted as hypocrites on things like WorkChoices.
2. Wentworth. I venture onto this topic with trepidation, since Antony G said the other night that it was totally irrelevant (or words to that effect). Well, it may be psephologically irrelevant, but I’d have thought it’s politically crucial. After all, if Labor gets over, say, 90 seats, Costello will be “damaged goods” and won’t have much chance of ever becoming PM. Turnbull would become the logical Liberal leader, if he has held his seat.
Newhouse’s nominations saga probably means Turnbull will hang on (who wants a by-election?), unless Labor can come out with something convincing to demonstrate that (a) Newhouse’s paperwork was definitely ok and/or (b) the story is a Liberal set-up. Nothing so far to indicate that Labor will be able to do this.
3. Bennelong. I reckon it’s 50/50 – as of now. But who wants a by-election? Rudd may well campaign there next week.
Is anyone here from Hinkler? I’d be curious to know what people up there think of Brian Courtice? Labor people don’t take too kindly to rats and turncoats.
Brian would have lost a lot of friends.
Matthew Cole 238
I just read your excellent piece and heartily support it. I was not so much pro-Rudd as anti-Howard. Howard might be called shrewd, cunning etc by some,but for me he will go down as one of the most mean-spirited leaders Australia has seen in my life time. A bully who simply gets henchmen to do the bullying for him, then acts as though he is still a nice man. His idea of manners is someone who says the nastiest of insinuations, with polite sounding words. And of course, the rest of us are “un-Australian” if we criticise.
Howard has been one who divides to rule. We have problems to deal with both internal (why can’t a whole generation buy a house when we are supposed to be rich?) and external (how does the world fix climate change?). They will only be solved if we work with a sense of common identity and purpose, not wedge politics. Leadership is indeed needed. Good luck Kevin.
Off to work.
The poor old buggers know they’ve wedged and wedged good… it’s so sweet
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091224.htm
THIS IS THE BEST!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&sdig=1
- go 4 GROWTH!
Thanks Aussieguru01 – that was freakin’ hilarious! Great way to start my morning
Just heard Chris Ullhman? on News Radio being his usual aggressive self towards Labor, interviewing Rudd on his spending.
I was watch Sky News for a couple of hours last night (nornally don’t get to see it) and the Libs were running an ad with a former Hawke minister (can’t remember the name – Coulson or something like that) who was bagging Rudd and slamming unions. Does anyone know who he is and what his beef is with Labour?
Lindsay voter,
About the former Labor man add, don’t worry. It is irrelevant. The fact that you follow politics and don’t know who he is proves the point. His name was Brian Courtice, adn I don’t even think Rudd was in parliament when he was in office.
Kale mera theeler, olle de ee mera !
Hartcher, in the article linked above, says there has been a bidding war.
I prefer the America’s Cup analogy: let Howard sail off dangerously into the spectator fleet… Rudd knows the Finish line’s over there. He’s sick of matching tack-for-tack.
Labor’s sailing on its own now.
The GG has been very consistent in its message on spending too much to win the election. Remember Kelly’s questions to the Rodent at the debate. The papers love taking the moral high ground on economics. The glowing reviews of St Kevin are no surprise. The Rodent has been wedged and knows it. You can’t be a “tax and spend” liberal and an economic conservative. It’s all over bar the shouting. Check mate.
Reading that piece, it seems that there is a consensus among experts that, bar the improbable, the election is in the bag for the ALP. Is this your view William? If so, 84 seats looks like a (dare I say it) conservative estimate. Though my completely unscientific stab-in-the-dark guess is 82.
254 Scaper Click on ’show all’ and press the ‘end’ key.
But you didn’t miss anything. Basically a tory had been told to do the shredding before the Poll put him out of work and he became known as a bludger. This was misinterpreted by the tory as go and shred the thread over at Poll bludger.
1996-2004 according to the Australian Election Study there are two class groups where the left vote(ALP+Dems+Greens) has declined: private sector professional-managerial and unskilled manual workers. The former are the ‘Republican Liberals’ who now like Rudd, hence Howard’s problems in Bennelong and why Turnbull is doing better in Wentworth because he appeals to this group.
For people like ESJ I thnk they need to realise how the Federal – State money game is played. Do you understand? Think carefully before you answer.
You see the Federal Government has all the money, they leak it out (well actually it gushes) into education. Does it go to education? I’m sure it does. Does it go anywhere else? Yes it does. It goes to multi-nationals sucking off the Howard teat. It also gets stuck in budgets from which it can’t be retrieved and everyone scratching their heads saying how the hell do we spend this.
So do you know what you are talking about – if you do then prove it?
Comment on the education revolution in Queensland:
Every Queensland State School has been on the net for years. In addition to this access, I can say that (in my experience) High Schools generally have a very good student:computer ratio.
Guess he’ll have to spend a lot of that money on the more backward southern states.
I can suggest the minister was Mal Colston – if you want a full explanatino ask, but otherwise I know he’s on wiki.
On the refresh I realise it’s Courtice….. oops…
Hey Glen, have you put your order in for Prozac yet?
HUBRIS * 6 (the number of interest rate rises since Howard promised we wouldn’t have any)
BB Dave @ 95 – Just a little nitpick. ‘Their’ is an exception to the rule ‘i’ before ‘e’ except after ‘c’ as in ‘receive’ and ‘believe’. (If you mind me pointing this out, please accept my apology).
Isabella @ 6 – your use of the derogatory term ‘labor pigs’ makes you the pot calling the kettle black. It is, unfortunately, a human trait to judge and/or deride others on their looks or lack of them. I guess you might remember, if you try, that children are past masters at this sort of taunt. It is, however, no excuse that many of us carry this on into adulthood but for most of us it is not whether someone is sexy, obese, has cross eyes or some other affliction, but what comes out of their mouths that is important, especially when that person/s is an elected representative of the people.
Howard hasn’t yet unveiled his health policy – I guess that’s his final desperate salvo?
I don’t throw political junk mail in the bin. If I find it offensive (like the “Wall to Wall Labor” pamphlets), I send it back to the address that is specified in the usual blurb without a stamp. Don’t know what happens to it
I suspect Howard has no Health policy to announce.
I believe he intended to annonce a nation-wide Mersey-style takeover, but that would be even more of a political suicide at this point.
oopss – sorry I was responding to a posting from hours ago…
Howard’s Health Policy – “Let the poor die. Jeez, some people …”
Does anyone know what Lambert means when he says:
“TCP vote is nearly always a TPP (Two Party Preferred) vote and, by
long-held convention, is always expressed as an ALP TPP”
Anyone wish to take me up on THE GREAT CANDIDATE SPOTTING CHALLENGE?
This morning, I ran into Mike Bailey for the 4TH, repeat 4th time – out, pressing the flesh, making friends wherever he goes. Can anyone beat that!?
By the way, his opposite number Hockey walked straight past me the other day and didn’t offer a handshake or a hello. Probably sensed I wasn’t going to vote for him anyway.
tdt – maybe it was the Kevin ‘07 t-shirt?
tdt at 291
I am sligthly ahead of you at about 6 viewings – but as a volunteer at Bailey’s “commuter campaigns” as they’re called, I probably have an unfair advantage.
I’ve been saying for a while now that Bailey is giving Hocky a real shake, though most haven’t really belived me (partisan as I am).
291 tdt
I’ve run into both Mike Bailey and (Greens candidate) Ted Nixon several times around the local area. Mike also replied promptly to an email I sent him. He seems absolutely tireless. My impression is that Joe Hockey is keeping a much lower profile around North Sydney than in previous campaigns, maybe others can comment?
I spotted Kevin yesterday in his electorate of Griffith….launching his election campaign !
Hockey has entered the trance like state of denial.
He will lose his seat, but he brought a lot of it on himself.
282 – Rates Analyst
Yep, Courtice is the man and he certainly is bitter and twisted. Another former piggy who is peeved that his spouse can’t get her snout into the trough.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22757305-11949,00.html
Hockey has been too busy doing a grubby deal with Brian Courtice.
Hockey’s volunteers were at Crows Nest shope last week, but they only stayed about 90 minutes.
In contrast, some of the Bailey team were there for the full 4 hours. (I only clocked up 3, I admit.)
I know for a fact that Bailey had teams at multiple local areas and only the Bailey himself was moving around. It seemed to me that the Hockey supporters had one team who did multiple areas – though I can’t confirm that, it’s just a general impression.
The Hockey team arrived, cmapaigned then all left at remarkably similar times.
If Mike Bailey can get the margin down to something like 55 -45, that’d be a good result. I’ve got my doubts though, I can’t imagine suburbs like Crows Nest voting Labor.
Great article, augurs well.
Still on the upper end of things, 80 will do.
Berowra is similar, too many dyed in the wool Liberals, they’ll still vote for Howard as the rest of the country swings to Labor.
I watched the campaign launch.
So its “spending restraint” and “fiscal conservatism” for the poor and disadvantaged in our community from Labor is it?
It has sealed my position, I will be voting Greens in the Senate and informal/National in Page and so will many, many of my friends. Suck on that Labor, maybe we do have somewhere else to go after all!!!!
Agree with Hemingway 260 – Lambert’s analysis seems convincing but defies all common sense – No ALP 2pp vote has ever approached 55% since ww2 – A more likely result is about 52-53% – an ALP win by 2-4 seat margin.
The margin in 2004 was 55-45 I believe. I’ve been told the requried swing is 10.3 per cent.
Crows Nest is full of young people who commute and live in rented accomodation. Don’t mistake the value of the house for the wealth of the occupant. The renters are children of the young aspirationals who are suddenly reasling how little they have – and how Howard’s rate rises are hurting them.
Also Bailey goes down a treat with middle-aged women. It’s almost sickening, they’re like 40 year old groupies. At least it would be sickening if it wasn’t so wonderful!
304 Thaddeus, why tell us how you will vote. It is a secret ballot and nobody will know or care.
Wouldnt 55 be the biggest in history????
Bluebottle, I’m afraid that I don’t know what a ‘Dons Party’ scenario is. I’ve seen it referred to a few times but must be missing something!
For what it’s worth, my statements yesterday were in relation to the question of whether it’s possible the Coalition can win from here. My response was yes it’s possible but not probable. The only people who probably have a good idea of how things will go on 24 November are the people high up in the parties. (Rudd, Howard, campaign managers etc.) The rest of us really are stabbing in the dark, aided with the tools handed to us by the main pollsters. On the face of it… it looks certain Labor will be elected. It’s probable… but not completely impossible that they will lose.
Let’s just say things will need to pan out perfectly for the Coalition to pull this off.
(Not that the rate rises are increasing their mortgages, but they’re making a mortgage even less affordable).
Those with the highest borrowing as a proportion of the house value suffer most from rate rises – so the renters see that each rise makes it even harder to buy – the ultimate goal of most of them.
LTEP
Don’s Party is a movie about the 1969 election when the ALP picked up 26 seats but still fell short.
Because Steve Labor has sold out its own supporters and needs to be punished for it. Voting Green and denying them lower house votes will force them to respect their own voters again.
Thaddeus, Why would someone who visits this site deliberately vote informal? The logic escapes me.
309 We understand why you don’t understand the term ‘Don’s Party’ LTEP. You have been in a political dreamworld. It has no meaning in a Tory world but won’t be repeated next week, so you will probably never know, will you?
Don’s Party is hilarious, well worth reading, going to see (if you’re in Sydney), or there’s a DVD available of the movie from the early 1970s.
Labor would love to pick up an extra 26 seats on November 24.
Because Steve K yesterday proved there is no viable progressive alternative in the House of Representatives.
The University of Adelaide politics dept did another poll, this time for the Sturt electorate, on Monday night with just under 300 respondents. It gave Christopher Pyne a primary vote of 50% and Labor’s Mia Handshin 40%. Pyne’s 2PP vote was 55% – a drop of about 2%. Nowhere near the swing that Labor true believers have been expecting.
Senate voting intentions from this poll have the Libs down 8%, Labor down 2-3%, Greens steady. The projection is two senators each for the Libs and Labor, with Nick Xenophon easily taking one seat and the last place being fought out between the Greens and Xenophon’s partner Roger Bryson.
Me thinks Thaddeus lives under a bridge.
Thaddeus @ 304
Very odd thinking, sonny jim. You seem to forget one thing – Labor does have a heart. It’s base is the poor and disadvantaged. Suggest you read a big book on politics. It won’t hurt. Cheers.
Apologies, I got caught by the double negative.
The 2004 2pp result in North Sydney was 60-40, so the 10% swing needs to be double counted.
The tone of the heavyweight reporters in the broadsheets, regarding Labor’s launch, is very, very positive. Paul Kelly’s article http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/paulkelly/index.php/theaustralian/comments/alp_wins_the_high_ground_on_economy/ is straightforwardly positive – I couldn’t believe it when I read it.
LTEP
Usually you can guess at how the parties are going by the body language and comments of the members and the direction of the campaign.
Libs have Joyce saying govt members are depressed, Howard stumbles around like the mad King in one of Shakespeares plays, head hanging down but occassionly raising it to the heavens in a beseeching cry “Mr Speaker Mr Speaker”, and the rest of them are more focused on a scare and smear campaign.
The labor members look quite but confident, still worried if they will get the 16 seats but focused on getting their policies and ideas out to the people.
318 [Me thinks Thaddeus lives under a bridge.]
Me thinks Thaddeus lives under delusion if Informal/National counts as progressive.
So tell me again guys how does tax cuts for the rich and “fiscal conservatism” for the poor and disadvantaged help people in need?
Kevin Rudd made it plain as day yesterday, there is no money to be spent on people in need in the community.
That is OK, he has no need of progressive votes either. When he loses Page he might take the time to reconsider that view.
A strong Green controlled Senate is a better bet than a conservative Labor Government with a conservative Liberal opposition in my view.
A Don’s party scenario is not dissimilar to how the Libs must have felt in 1993 – where you feel confident that finally your party is going to get in, but they fall short (although of coruse in ‘93 the libs went backwards)
How about actually means-testing your education spending, rather than just giving to all. Does that mix fiscal conservatism with help for the disadvantaged?
Or how does rax cuts for all (but the rich getting a much smaller share) sound?
Thaddeus, I am having grave misgivings about your true intentions here.
291- tdt – run into Julie Owens a couple of times. A pleasant experience, she’s a bit of all right in my opinion.
Thadeus, you seem to be politically bipolar in our bicameral system. Far right in the reps and far left in the Senate. Join the two together and you are a centrist, where the ALP currently stands. Join us, you know you want to
.
324 – Thadd – I think the opposite is true. What he was clamping down on was the non-means tested middle class welfare of the Howard caretaker government
quite different from saying there is no money for the needy.
Incidentally, I thought it was the case that once an election was called and the government was in caretaker mode, the convention was that the media would call (in this case) John Howard the Liberal leader (rather than PM) so as not to appear too favourable to the incumbent.
What will be fun is just what Rattus will come up with next, or, will he capitulate??
Seems to me he can run something up the flagpole on Health or Housing Affordability, since the ALP already has positions on these matters.
Problem for the Rattus Crew is that they need a BIG vote SHIFTER. Something that will make a splash and get people to take notice.
While either of those areas could be such an issue, they are expensive areas to make a difference in, and Rattus has spent all the coin on tax cuts. Whatever he does now he is up against the RBA, inflation and interest rates, as well that the ALP’s well oiled Rat Killing Machine.
Capitulation may well be their best option now. Run dead and hope to limit the damage so they aren’t in the wilderness for more than 3 terms.
How about:
Free Higher Education
Public Housing
Increased support for pensioners and aged people
Progressive Income Taxation
Oh I am sorry that is not “fiscally conservative” is it? Maybe you could all come up to the North Coast and explain to people up here that they shouldn’t worry about a lack of a roof over their heads or an absence of public services because we are sorry that would be “fiscally irresponsible”
When the GG starts supporting Rudd you know the big sell-out is definitely on!!!!
In my opinion Thaddeus that is ridiculous. If all that matters is a Senate with a Greens balance of power then it will hurt noone to preference Labor in the House of Representatives.
However, as long as you’re fine with whatever policies Howard will implement in his next term then that’s fine. If you want to give your approval to the policies he’s implemented over the past 11 years that’s also fine.
However, if you want to stand up and say we can do better than this you’ve got options. When it comes down to it do you really think a Labor Government will be worse? Even if you think Labor will be marginally better than the Coalition you’re copping out by voting informal.
If you want to really send a message to the major parties you can do this by voting Greens in the House and increasing their primary vote share. If you vote informal the Greens won’t get this boost that they deserve.
But I suppose it makes you feel like a really big person with principles to wipe your hands clean and stand for nothing. In the end your vote is personal. You can cast it or choose not cast it in any way you see fit.
What’s with all the random concern trolls lately?
Anyway, I do like William’s Senate predictions, though I think Vic will split 3/3.
Thaddeus, why do you think we rolled Garrett out a couple of weeks ago saying ‘we’d change it all once we got in’. Blatant LW dog whistling for our dissillusioned rusted ons in this battle for the middle ground.
The only way we get progressive policies in this country is to fight for them!!!
Labor has to be held accountable and made to understand progressive voters cannot be taken for granted!!!!
I thought the ALP launch was fine, but I guess we all have to remember that there’s been no polling since both launches, especially since Howard’s pork barrelling with the $800 on Monday. It may bite, who knows?
IMO, Rudd really needs to get out and sell the fact that his $750 education rebate is payable to all and sundry up to the means tested level, including private school kids. He should also say that the $800 for school fees will just be passed on by the schools, so people won’t be that much better off.
330 – imacca – maybe health, but I think he’s shot his bolt on housing affordability. Given the Mersey fiasco, I can’t see him trumpeting that model about.
What about anything else from labor? I seem to recall Rudd saying he’d have something else to say on carers in the campaign, but I can’t recall seeing it yet. That sort of stuff plays well in the electorate. Maybe somethign else on health as well.
The problem with health announcements though is that they are always so very expensive. It may run counter tot he fiscal conservative model he’s putting out there.
Voting Informal/National is giving up and showing no fight Taddeus.
For the first time in about a week CBet odds have actually shifted as we settle in for El Rodente’s Death Watch 2007. It didn’t have to be this way but no one in the Party had the bottle to stand up to him when it was glaringly obvious that it was time for Rat Features to shoot through.
The wages of his vainglory and the cowardice of his parliamentary colleagues will be political oblivion.
1. LABOR 1.33
2. COALITION 3.35
Thaddeus, if you want to vote progressive. Vote Greens for both HOR and Senate.
LTEP
Nice post, but actually the best way of sending a message is labor in the lower house, Greens, Democrat (Qld), Mr X in the upper.
A very strong lower house vote send a very clear message and achieves two things, a landslide will get rid of the deadwood lazy smug inefficient liberal members and give them the cleanout they need to reform the party for the next election.
A landslide also send a clear message to both parties that it is the people that decide, not the politicians, and if they can turn big time on one party they can do it again.
Because of preferential voting your vote in the House of Reps ultimately goes to conservative (Labor) or conservative (Liberal).
Arbie Jay… it’s not necessarily true that you can go by body language of members as a good predictor of a result. Most of the members have no more of an idea than the rest of us.
I remember Robert Ray was certain Labor would lose the ‘93 election. Amanda Vanstone was certain the Coalition lose in ‘96 until the vote count started.
I’d be surprised if most Labor members/senators weren’t feeling bouyed at the moment and most Coalition members/senators apprehensive. However I know for sure not all of them feel this way.
And voting Informal /National solves this problem how exactly?
Thad, Labor is far more progressive than the coalition. Voting for the nat’s in the hope of increasing the progressives in parliament is like shooting yourself in the foot then trying to run.
A strong Greens influenced or controlled Senate will be in a position to force reform on voting rules for the House of Reps. Then we will be able to get real change in this country!!!!
If Howard switches to health his competence and sincerity can easily be challenged. This is one of his biggest areas of policy failure IMO
First, and most recently in the memory, they couldn’t ven ge teh details of taking over one hospital right, so how can they run a whole system. The trouble is, all the health administration expertise is at the State level, so he probably doens’t even get very good advice on this one.
Second, there are all the changes to Medicare to favour private hospitals over public – again, his ideological obsession is showing here. Lots of embarrassing comments from the first term to dig up here.
Finally, his cornerstone and tombstone – massive tax subsidies of private health insurance. Has anyone investigated how this has worked? It is like the war in Iraq – an intervention under false pretences that has failed. Check the original stated reasons for the change. It was supposed to divert patients away from public hospitals to reduce pressure on them. Has that happened? No!!! Yet billions have been wasted with some private insurers now paying people what are effectively public funds to visit naturopaths, while we don’t have enough nurses. Meanwhile, the payments to States were dropped in view of the “saving” from private health insurance. As a result every State without billions in mining royalties has beens truggling financially ever since, as they try to make up the difference.
After all, why would a rodent care about the prevention of illness?
How is the Senate going to force reform in the House of Reps exactly?
The way I see it, there’s still a long way to go before the election.
I really don’t know as yet who I will be voting for in the lower house, but it won’t be the Coalition.
Same in the upper house except it won’t be Labor or the Coalition.
I’ve been a bit slack, not studying the QLD ticket and this ignorant one would appreciate a link so I can make my decision.
Thaddeus… it’s people like you that will stop the Greens from ever winning House of Representatives seats. It’s a completely defeatist nature. The major parties will never reform the voting rules for the House of Reps because it strengthens them.
The only way to influence the House of Representatives it to use your vote to do so. It’s unfortunate… but at the moment we have a 2 party system. With your vote you can put the Greens in a position where one day people might see them as a viable alternative. If everyone that supported the Greens voted informal in the house think how low their primary would be… and the damage to their future prospects that would be.
Thaddeus is the strangest troll we have had here yet.
Has anyone heard about a Newspoll tomorrow? I have.
Thaddeus, I would like to address your points:
1. Spending on poor – what do you think the computer access (mostly for lower-end schools, since the ‘better’ schools already have it) will do? Or for that matter the extra dental clinics and free dental visits? Or then there’s the ALP tax package, which very deliberately does NOT return the tax cuts to the rich (unlike the Nationals’ coalition partners), and instead invests this into improving healthcare – again, a policy from which the poor will benefit more than the rich.
2. Fiscal responsibility – if Rudd took any other tack, the media would crucify him like they did Mark Latham. Or have you forgotten the “L for Latham” campaign mounted in 2004?
“Better to be a successful compromiser than a powerless idealist” – Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, knows as “The Prince of Diplomats”.
3. Free Higher Education – As a student on HECS, I actually approve of the idea. If you don’t pay for something, you don’t appreciate it. This has, in the past, resulted in “lifetime students” – students who never intend to work, but take course after course, all at the taxpayer’s expense.
4. Public Housing – talk to the States, not the Commonwealth. Outside their area of responsibility.
5. Pensioners – My grandparents are angrier at the way Howard is treating them (with shameless bribery, most of which will be revoked if he wins as “non-core promises”) than at the way Labor is failing to match Howard dollar for dollar. In case you didn’t get it, that is Howard’s strategy – force Labor to match him to win the election, then watch as they can’t pay up – like Howard would be unable to if he won. Howard is past the stage of trying to win the election. Heis trying to do two things – firstly, limit the damage, and secondly, poison the well for his successor.
Your signal that you intend to vote Nat as a result of insufficient ALP welfare policies, when the Nationals have sold-out their core constituency many times over, is a sure sign that your are a) rusted-on Nats voter, b) a troll and c) lying about intention to vote Green – no Nats supporter ever votes Green in the other house. When you are prepared to examine yourself and your words, your contributions will be welcome. Until then, I wish that I could block you from my computer screen (not from PB – all have a right to be here, even trolls – I just don’t want to read your posts).
Good day.
alpal.. don’t you dare… that’s not fair!!!!
alpal, so tell me, what do you know? (thick Russian accent)
Thaddeus: OK, I’ll bite. Get off your progressive high horse, and look what is at stake. What good is Labor if it is always in opposition? Your plan to vote informal does nothing but other than leave Howard and Co in power even longer. The general electorate is conservative and is generally opposed to change. If Rudd was doing another Latham trick, you can be sure that the ALP would be in opposition for at least another decade.
Sorry but your rant doesn’t hold much weight, and if Howard gets back in I’m come back here and thank you so much.
Let me guess… the newspoll was taken after the Coalition launch but mostly before the Labor launch. I wonder what way the result will be skewed.
Give, alpal.
You Englander schweinhund! You vill talk! Talk!
335 Thaddeus, like the rest I don’t get you. You are a progressive voter and want to vote National? If you vote Greens in the Senate and National in the Lower House, you’re basically cancelling one another. You want to punish Labor but not the Libs?!
I guess voters will have to decide on “the money or the box”, I hope that voters have finally come to the conclusion that we can’t build a better society unless we all kick in.
The bribes in from past elections have largely been pissed up against the wall, one year I spent the Family tax benefit on a plasma, another year on a trip to the snow – great fun but hardly nation building stuff. My self funded retiree inlaws are rolling in grey pork but I think they’ll take the money because they ‘deserve it’, I think there’s something about that demographic that causes them to grasp and hang onto every single dollar they can get there hands on.
Will 355 – “The general electorate is conservative and is generally opposed to change. ”
There you have it in a nutshell, Labor has swallowed hook line and sinker conservative propaganda. People will vote for a strong progressive alternative.
Why is Labor not promising a Royal Commission into the many,many scandals of the Liberal party? Children overboard, Tampa, Waterfront, AWB etc etc
Why is Labor not advocating real welfare reform? Rebates for school expenses, how about increasing welfare payments for those who do not have money!!!!
Whoa Centerbets gone nuts
ALP $1.31
Non ALP $3.50
Yes, I’m still trying to figure out how the Greens will be able to force reform on the House of Reps from the Senate. I now don’t think Thaddeus is a troll, just somebody who is extremely clueless about the legislative process.
Yes, some very good press coverage of Labor’s launch. Much more than I expected. Even the Herald Sun here in Melbourne is referring to Kevin as the “frugal” opposition leader:
“FRUGAL federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has gambled on economic caution to win office and pledged he will make Australia the smartest nation in the world.”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22760784-661,00.html
Thaddeus is Glen posted under another name!
Antony Green is getting absolutely rave reviews on Jon Faine radio (774 Melbourne). The callers and the media panellist (Deb?) all great fans.
My guess (104) wasn’t completely a stab in the dark. I pinged Anthony’s calculators all of the way to max excepting QLD and subtracted 1 for Boothby (based upon all that I’ve heard, I thought Cornes might not make it at the time) and that was how I got 104
arbie j @322 – yes there will be a ‘cleanout’ of LNP members, and the party will ‘reform’ but most likely in the image of the Clarkists in NSW ie right religious zealotry. How far that goes will depend partly on which members remain after the carnage, although it is the organisation in which they have control. That should keep the LNP out for a few terms.
Thad, you are quite rightly critiquing some of the outrageous actions of this coalition government. Yet, as you say, your going to vote for them. It makes no sense. Vote green 1, and preference Labor if you want the back of this govt, and want to deny the ALP the $2.something from the AEC for your vote. Voting green in both houses, while preferencing Labor is a strong enough message.
I just want to see real progressive policies implemented in this country!!!!
Thaddeus
If you are a “progressive” green supporter then I take it you are in favour of cutting all the rural subsidies to farms that are unviable and taking precious water resources out of dry river systems? LOL
Alpal
I almost don’t care. After seeing Possum’s link to the statistical analysis of poll reliability, it is too late now. The polling average now is around 55/45 2PP and on Possum’s past analysis it might drift by maybe 0.1% per week. If it shows a coalition bounce after the Liberal launch, the Monday polls from Newspoll and the next Neilsen will surely show a bounce to Rudd after the Labor launch. Unless the Labor campaign bus crashes into a child care centre in the next 7 days Rudd will win.
A newspoll tomorrow would make sense, as that would then set the scene for one a week later on the eve of the election.
KT #362,
The only way that the Senate can do that is by being obstructionist, thus giving Rudd the excuse he needs to call a double-dissolution election.
Socrates, sure we need to end a lot of environmentally unsound practices in this country including intensive “farming” and forest destruction as well as ending coal.
Thaddeus
You are right to point out these things – Labor is the 2nd party of the Right, but given the dominant ideology and the current stage in history, it will take many years for Labor to move to the centre again – and wow, if they ever be centre/left… like I think neoliberalism has to die and we are at the pointy end of this ideologynow – its like a bell curve, so at this stage, some change is better than nothing….
Thaddeus …
Your push for the Labor party to become more progressive is welcome, but then again it is hardly surprising. The support base of a political party is always divided, I think, between ideologues on one side and political pragmatists on the other.
Policy, progressive or otherwise, means nothing if you’re not in power.
That said, I’ll be voting Green in the Upper House and Labor in the HoR.
If News polled to be out tomorrow, will it include any reaction to Rudd’s launch, or is only part of the sample caught by it? It may well make a difference.
Alpal – come on mate, give us a clue. Good news for ALP or bad?
Jaundice
A clean out of the libs would take away power from the Clarkes and the Hawkes who are a big part of the extreme religous right controlling the libs.
They get a lot of their power from sitting members who give them coveted staff positions, wipe out the sitting members and you wipe out a big part of their power base.
This gives the progressive libs a chance to reform and attract back into the party quality people.
Thaddeus
This is precisely the ultra leftist codswallop that 95% of Australians abhor about the Greens. Why is that Thaddeus, because the viewpoint of Brown and the mob are completely irrational and irrelevant to todays society?
Free Education? For crying out loud…The education system is buckling under the pressure of not enough resources and money and you want to implode the sector from within? Where are the teachers for the influx of kids into the university sector to come from? How would all those graduates with honours feel when the paper the degree is written on is worth more than the award itself?
Progressive Tax system? How does that go again? One that increases the percentages of tax payable by those who are wealthier? In other words, the taxation system that taxes the rich progressively more than the poor? Sounds an awful lot like what we have..
The main problem with you Greenies is that you believe that you should not have to earn anything, but rather have it handed to you.
The major parties both believe in arming those who wish to work harder for better healthcare, education and employment opportunities. They believe that Australians need a safety net when they fall on hard times, but, most importantly, help those who are willing to help the nation grow and prosper. They just go about it different ways.
Where does the Green way of thinking enter in? Nowhere in the above. Just hold your hands out and demand better for nothing – because you feel you are owed.
The Greens balance of power in the Senate will NOT see more progressive laws be introduced and tabled, all it will do is balance the laws between the Lab/Lib ways of thought.
In that regard, the Greens job has been done in the past by the Democrats, One Nation and Independents. What has been the major differences? Nothing…Brown would have done a Lees in the end.
The minor parties are a buffer between left and right which moves policy toward the centre and always will be. It would be the same if FF was in control. In that regard the major policies the minors believe in are increasingly irrelevant.
Thaddeus
you’re going to get an an awful bashing in here unless:
A – you’re ideologically fixed enough to ignore logic, and have too much pride for self examination, or
B – you’re trolling (good luck if you think that’s pushing humanity forward…)
If you’re really concerned about the lack of progressive politics, I’ve got another viewpoint for you. (By the way – go and get a copy of Future Shock, Alvin Toffler)
We have had 12 years of stagnant politics in Australia. If you want change (and I think generally here most agree with you) then that is a very different culture to where we are now. A culture of change can exist, so long as the generally conservative population doesn’t fear the ramifications of it. This could be seen as the motivation behind this ALP campaign – it’s pragmatism.
You have to realise that no change of government will further cement the conservative, anti-change, population of Australia, because 3 more years of the current regime won’t be the end of the world, and it’ll just further reinforce the idea that there’s no need for change in a large chunk of the electorate.
So – my challenge is this: Vote for change now, vote for change in 3 years, and so on.
If you do anything to maintain the status-quo you are, as has already been pointed out, shooting your own foot of.
Thaddeus
I’m sure that a number of other bloggers here would like to see more progressive policies for the Labor camp – many have expressed this before. However a party that ran on these lines would scare middle Australia and never be voted in, NEVER. Democracy means that (for better or worse) you have to cater to the majority if you want to govern. What is the point of taking the progressive moral high ground and remaining in opposition for ever?
While I understand your frustrations, I can’t help but think that the simplistic idealism you have expressed here is more than a little naive.
348 Scaper,
If you pan down on the PB main page, William has a thread about the QLD Senate ticket posted on 13 November, 2 days ago. I reckon that you ought to be able to get most of what you need there. Failing that, check the AEC website for the Senate preferences for the QLD parties. That will tell you who is preferencing who. Between those two, you ought to be all set.
But will they Thaddeus ? The Coalition has been in power for 11 years. There has to be a reason.I personally think that Australia has moved further to the right under JWH.
That may still happen. I believe we will find out many nasty things the Govt has done. There was a report on Lateline this week that showed up to 200 people may have been illegally detained by the Immigration Department, I’m sure when elected this will be examined.
But they have. There are tax cuts, and they are increasing payments to pensioners. They will never get elected on welfare spending alone. If you are not well off then look at the policies of the people for the last 11 years who have put you in that position.
I agree with most of the people here. If you want welfare reforms then vote for the Greens in both houses.
Julie #381,
Does that really make a difference (the Senate voting part)?
Doesn’t the work of Lambert and others make you realise how vacuous the MSM is on these subjects? All power to the real experts – particularly when their predictions are palatable! The dustbin of history awaits for Howard and his gang. And as someone predicted a while ago, they are starting to turn on each other. Barnaby is only the first …
alpal
We have a large black car with tinted windows … several large gentlemen are on standby … they are not happy … just one word from me … if you get my drift … the boys also have a gunship, fully primed … so speak … (a word to the wise. My boys are not for toying with, especially on a Thursday …)
All the best for your future …
Poor Thaddeus seems to have stumbled into a nest of well informed pragmatists.
I just ran 55.3% TPP through one of the calculators and apart from 94 Labor seats an interesting discussion point is that the Torries will only have 22 safe seats (<5% margin).
I imagine there’ll be by elections aplenty when the long serving occupants of those seats take a look at ground zero on Nov 25, perhaps Lord Downer will make the supreme sacrifice for Turnbull to re-enter the fray, he’s probably their only hope in opposition.
Suggestion for a new and mischievous thread, ’senior liberals in safe seats who have a parachute in their rucksacks’.
I am communicating what a lot of people up here feel.
It looks like Janelle Saffin will pay the price for the conservative sell-out!!!!
I doubt there’s a newspoll out tomorrow – at least not one that includes fresh polling. There should be an ACNielsen and (of course) Morgan
Thaddeus, Get used to voting informal for the rest of your life – or do the honest thing and pay the fine i.e. don’t vote at all. You are asking for something that this Nation will not deliver again in your lifetime. Australia is now a very conservative sociey and it isn’t going to make a significant move to the old left anytime soon.
Thaddeus: Latham was a ‘progressive alternative’, and look what that did to the ALP. So no, a progressive alternative will not win this election. The point is that you must get in to power first. Howard did the exact same thing in 96 by shadowing Keating.
You talk about welfare, have you heard of the middle-class welfare, and as of Monday the upper-class welfare that we’ve had for the last 11 years? You just can’t promise to tear it up while in opposition. This is the same reason Howard had to ‘accept’ Medicare, but over 11 years he has made it a former shadow of itself. The dog whistle you should be listening to is the ‘razor gang’ once Labor gets in, as this will be the start of the removal of some of the middle-class welfare that exists due to Howard and it will start with means testing everything.
Thaddeus, you must be a troll.
There have been many sensible suggestions posted by people covering your concerns.
Your response.
I don’t like conservative policies, so I will vote back in a conservative government.
People, don’t waste your time.
392 – it’s not as contradictory as it sounds. People are entitled to different views.
In NSW politics I think there is merit in voting out the current government so that at least the opposition will be a bit progressive, and there will be a progressive voice, rather than the current right wing mash
arbie jay @ 377 – Hawke will certainly win his seat though, and will be rabidly trying to eliminate moderates along with his fellow goat-throaters. I think it could be an ugly ongoing street fight in the LNP after the conflagration. But, am I worried? – more fun to watch for the next few terms.
Can Adam or one of the other pseph experts help me please. I heard on Tv that the Libs felt if they could narrow to a 52-48 TPP loss they could still retain power by holding enough marginals, presumably because of the national pork shortage in safe seats. Is there any possibility they are correct?
393 Michael
sorry – I’m not quite understanding – can you please explain in a little more detail?
Thaddeus, after reading countless comments in many blogs, I’ve come to this conclusion. Anyone who says I’m now not going to vote for Rudd because he said this or did this or didn’t do this, were not going to vote for Rudd anyway, no matter what. So those in Page who think like you do, weren’t really interested in change for the better and deep down are National/Liberal supporters.
383,
It depends
….. the parties will put their best or main candidate first on the ticket SO if that party gets enough votes to get a member in, it will be the first person. My logic is for parties that I don’t like, I am voting them in reverse so that if on the OFF chance they do get a member into the Senate, it won’t be from my vote (as my first vote for that party would have been their last person). Using the Libs as an example this year in NSW. Coonan is first on the Libs ticket. Btw,the Libs and Nationals are running a joint ticket in NSW too so you have to be really careful and READ if you are putting the Nationals in a different place from the Libs – which I am. Libs are going dead last on my ticket and the Nationals some degree of seperation from them. Anyways, I am assuming Coonan will get in but it won’t be off of my vote .
Basis logic here is to screw the parties you don’t like and help those you do (by voting for them in the same order as the party wants them in [how they are listed on the ticket])
So Ms Whippy is now defending the same teachers she accussed a couple of months ago and being cadres of Chairman Mao? No wonder the masses are suss of politicians.
Thaddeus, the Greens can start commenting on internal policies when they are elected into seats in their own right by the constituents they represent. Doesn’t matter – either upper or lower house – not at the behest of every other candidates preference flows
Diogenes @ 395
I can’t remember where or when but yeah, I heard that too a week or two back. Some that “know” were saying that “if” it went 52% then the rodent might get over. At 53% they were cactus no matter what.
Why is Iraq going to bring Howard and his mate Bush down? Its clear in black and white in the Murdoch press here.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22762457-12377,00.html
I expect this’ll reduce their welfare bill.
Send those mooching war widows out to work – that’s the Howard way.
I understand the 55/45 thing. But does anyone care to guess what it will be on the day?
I think 53/47.
Anyone?
#401 I think from memory if the polls were 52-48, then the Libs think that on polling day it would be 51-49 and then they have a good chance of winning like in 1998.
Grooski
The Greens are not far left – if you actually look at their policies. See http://www.politicalcompass.org
They are mainstream social democratic and socially progressive – you will see that what labor is to the right economically greens are to the left – in other words they are not extreme – its like saying Labor is extreme right
When you say centre, where do you mean, – the centre is so much more right wing than it was – both Labor and liberal are parties of the right with the dominance of neoliberalism.. I think that you are missing the point, if you have largely stayed the same and everyone else has moved to the right over the years, and keeps moving, its sets up others tobe marginialsed as way more to the left than they really are…..pitching the Greens as extreme is not helpful ..its about offering a genuine Social democratic alternative – instead of being neoliberalism, with a heart -that is what Thaddeus is saying…
How could alpal have teased us like that? I feel used.
Exactly Bird. Well put.
ha!, You feel used thats nothin,
I just posted on the Australian, I feel dirty
Agreed BrissyRod: 53/47.
The peasants want their trinkets and will once again let themselves be conned by Howard… not enough for him to win, but enough to bring it down from 55/45 to 53/47 (+/- 0.5%)
Yes Bushfire Bill – which still means a Labor victory on paper.
Grooski #400,
Well, at the moment, that leaves the Greens able to comment on Tasmania’s affairs – they win seats off their own bats there.
bird #405,
Pretty right there. The centre has shifted since the 1970s, a long way to the right.
bird @ 405,
I think the point needs to be made that every mainstream politician in the Western world is a neoliberal now.
After all, it was Tony Blair who said “We are all Thatcherites now”.
The idea that people in the Western world would want to go back to a ’social democratic’ government was decisively proved incorrect in the 1983 defeat of the British Labour party and the 1984 defeat of Walter Mondale in the US presidential elections.
People (like Thaddeus) need to accept that the new ‘centre’ in politics revolves around neo-liberalism, where the free market is the key to any economy and where the era of big government is over…
Matthew Cole… the Greens didn’t win either of their Senate seats by gaining a full quota. Almost… but not quite.
The whole argument is silly in any case. If any candidate was disqualified from commenting because they didn’t receive 50%+ primary votes how many would be disqualified? Really silly stuff.
If the ALP get 53% in Qld thats 13 seats.
#401, the main reason this whole 52-48 to labor could give the coalition victory thing keeps rearing its head is due to the few elections in recent memory where the party with > 50% of the 2PP vote have lost. The most recent examples of this were Kim Beazley in 1998 (50.98%) and Andrew Peacock in 1990 (50.10%). The chances of labor getting 52% of the 2PP vote at this election and losing are very, very small indeed.
However, in the last few polls before election day, I will be looking at the primary voting intention. If Labor’s primary vote is showing 45 or better, I will be confidently going to my nearest wine vendor and buying an expensive bottle of bubbly to get drunk on at the appropriate moment.
With regards to the Dem’s – they have not won a (extra) senate seat since the GST election. They were supposed to keep the bastards honest – not deal with the devil, (i.e Sleazy John etc…) That, IR and Telstra etc… made them irrelevant, despite sweet Natasha’s Doc Martins.
Fare thee well in purgatory thy Dems, alas we knew you well – your cause of the left has now been usurped by the Greens. If they go feral then you may receive your absolution..
Aesop has spoken…..
403 BrissyRod Says: November 15th, 2007 at 10:52 am
I think 55/45
from sportingbet…
No hubris! Just excited
MASSIVE $70K BET ON LABOR
Wednesday, 14 November
Australia’s biggest bookmaker Sportingbet Australia has taken a massive $70,000 bet on the ALP at the short odds of $1.35. This has pulled the odds of a Labor victory into $1.32 – the shortest odds of the last two months.
Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said that this was one of the biggest bets taken to date.
“Today’s $70,000 bet is the biggest we’ve had at such short odds and is an ominous sign for the Coalition,” he said.
“It follows three $100,000 bets on the ALP earlier in the campaign.”
Mr Sullivan said that Australian punters were now giving the Coalition little hope of a comeback.
“The last time Labor was at shorter odds than this was in the middle of September in response to speculation about a leadership challenge within the Liberal Party,” he said.
“I’ve been running betting markets on elections for twenty years now and I’ve never seen either Party come from this far behind in the odds to win,” he said.
“We’ve also now got Labor as the favourite in 19 individual seats around the country following substantial betting on Labor in the marginal seat markets,” said Mr Sullivan, “they only need to win 16 seats to win the election.”
AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Prices
Labor $1.32
Coalition $3.35
Geoff Lambert, you are a genius. All Labor supporters should now be relaxed and comfortable about the results of 24 November. Chill the beer.
Aesop, the Democrats won several seats at the 2001 election, post GST. In my view it was the very public leadership tensions (Meg Lees writing that silly letter out in the bush) that started the demise. Once the media had labelled the Democrats as over that was it. Andrew Murray often talks of the importance of fine parliamentarians as opposed to fine politicians. I believe a lot of the Democrats are fine parliamentarians.
Swing lowe
You can offer a social democratic alternative without being for big government – its believing in the positive role of the goverment – left equals big goverment is falling for the lie of the neoliberal right. A left libertarian alternative is not anything to do with soviet style socialisam – its a genuine mixed economy – and what do you mean by free market? Capitalism is winner takes all, power take all, if you want to be for everybody then you need to intervene, which is a left wing intervention – in other words there is no such thing as a free market.
Objectiving to neoliberalism does not mean you are a unreconstructed 1960’s socialist – its objecting to the Radical Right – the British Labor Party is now more right wing economically than the tories were before thatcher came to power – its like saying anybody who has a problem with this should just get over it – there is a long way to centre/left from where the BLP is!!
Unfortunately, parts of the left buy this whole neoliberal thing -objecting to the New Right does not mean you are extreme left -
419
I am and I have “hic”
Matthew 415
I think if its even 53/47 you can fairly safely shout a bottle. If its 55/45 or better I propose we lead the good people of Sturt into the Adelaide Hills, storm Lord Downer’s chateau, and liberate the ill-gotten contents of his cellar!
Oops, I wonder if that counts as sedition under our not-so-just anti-terror laws?
Socrates, as is the current trend I am a merely being a “psephological conservative”
alpal, mate, comrade…just say if it’s good, very good or break-out-the-veuve cliquot good.
What a crock of bubbly poo Bird
If the Greens were as “mainstream” socially democratic as you believe, then their popular vote among the 18-30 age group would be a lot higher than it is. Or is it simply that there is a “perception” problem within the community of the party as a whole.
Put it more simply – the major parties are indeed moving more to the right in economic and social reform policies. They follow the wishes and beliefs of the constituents they represent. You can argue political “brain washing” and the rise of perpuating greed causing this shift – I call it an understanding of the fundamental rule in our society – give to the country and you shall receive.
But the role the Greens play is not to be to the left, but the balance between the COMPARATIVE left and right agendas of the two major parties. An example is how the Senate will work – a bill is passed based on numbers. Those numbers mean that a minor party can NEVER introduce a bill that either of the two major parties fundamentally disagree with. See? The major parties introduce the bill, the Greens are lobbied on ground between the two major parties points of view and pass or reject on that basis. The balance.
You cannot sit on the left and watch society and political forces move to the right without at some point being labelled extreme.
It does not matter a twat what policies the Greens introduce (outside of your founding core of the environment) because they will NEVER be implemented without the two majors help – and thus an idelogical skewing to the majors viewpoint (a movement to the right)
In what way then is it any different to the Democrats or Independents or FF? None.
You can agree or disagree this is a sad state of affairs, but this is political reality in this country since the 70s.
By the way – a trip to Greens.org.au will highlight the place they believe they play. They sprout they are the “balance” in the Senate. That is their place and always will be.
Like I said, when they get a constituent elected in their own right, by populist vote, then we may see some relevancy.
I don’t know if it has been mentioned in this thread, but a poll by the University of Adelaide for ABC local radio suggests The Duchess of Sturt (Punce Pyne) will retain Sturt easily – 50 / 40 on primaries.
I don’t think this is accurate because it suggests a -2% swing against Pyne, but a +5% primary vote swing to Labor. The rest of the Labor swing must come from some where, but I doubt it is the Greens – who polled 6% last time.
Matthew
I fully understand. There is probably a feeling of caution in all of us that will not abate till the stake is driven through the vampires heart. But I take comfort in the fact that 55/45 is the average of the recent polling – the most likely outcome. Even assuming the margin of error works in the Liberals favour, the best case for the Coalition at present is around 53/47, which would still be a stinging defeat.
@403 Brissy Rod
53.7 46.3
Or thereabouts.
I am confidently predicting Master Pyne will be looking for a new job after November 24. As a flinders boy, I don’t listen to much that comes out of the University of Adelaide
Or Labor 80-83 seats, which ever comes first…so to speak.
I’m with you Socrates, I merely take comfort from the fact that my worst case scenario still has me very happy indeed !
Here’s more information on the Uni of Adelaide Sturt poll:
http://www.abc.net.au/adelaide/stories/s2091326.htm
#419. Alex not chilling anything till at least 8.00pm on the 24th. Don’t wish to jinx anything.
Gerr – thats very specific – thanks!
ruawake – I dont think the ALP will get 53% in Qld.
403
BrissyRod Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 10:52 am
“I understand the 55/45 thing. But does anyone care to guess what it will be on the day?
I think 53/47. Anyone?”
……
55.7/44.3
Was anhyone else freaked out by the number of times ‘friends’ was said at the Labor Launch….
I dont understand why they at one stage didn’t go …Australians Countrymen…
Howardo Delendum Est.
Over at the ABC there is an on-line poll comparing the campaign launches.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/poll/vote
Out of 3234 votes, they reckon it’s 78% Rattus Rattus to 22% RuddStar. Must be the only poll like that! And at that communist bastion the ABC.
#437, not freaked out but noticed. I thought it was better than comrades!
My prediction
0.05 at 6:30
0.08 at 7:00
0.10 at 7:30
0.15 at 7:35
Grooski
I think the Greens as a balancing force in the Senate is true – but I am not sure you got what I was saying – of course they are there to bring the parties to negotiate – I still do not think it helps the lefts cause if people such as yourself go along with saying that the greens are extreme – instread of explaining that its just that the paradigms have moved further to the right – I understand your point…but by the Greens being left they move Labor and Liberal further to the centre, so any political party has to start from a value set – they cannot start from a nothingness
on the day, 2pp ALP 54/46 LNP
BrissyRod
Newspoll state by state showed Qld with 54% why do you think 53% is not possible?
ruawake – I am happy to be wrong, but I just dont think it will happen.
Although it might go higher than the 1990 TPP result, which was Labor’s best.
That Sturt poll would have an error factor of 5-6%.
These funny online polls are not reflecting accurately, the similar polls on Ch 9 and other on CH2 have shown that Howard won both the debate and the launch….
When Howard was clearly defeated in both, even to the casual observer.
It’s not the Channels, its a Liberal rear guard unit (prob Young Libs) that have been mobilized to rig the polls by mobilizing votes.
433
ShowsOn Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Here’s more information on the Uni of Adelaide Sturt poll:
http://www.abc.net.au/adelaide/stories/s2091326.htm
This states a sample size of 281. MoE must be significant – about 5.9% – maybe more depending the demographic weightings used…
Online Polls
When is the MSM going to run a story on how these online polls are being manipulated?
(Pigs might fly)
So long as stupid advertisers are paying by the click…
What’s going on at the ABC – god knows!?
Why do they need the clicks?
RGee @ 440
That is probably the most accurate prediction we’ll see – and will be true regardless of the outcome!
ShowsOn, thansk for the details of that Sturt poll:
“The University polled 297 people in Sturt on the night of Monday November 12, the same day as the Liberal party launch.”
So its a tiny sample, taken on a night after the coalitions big spending promises, and they still suffered a swing against and just won a safe seat. I fear not.
Bird,
What I am saying is that you cannot reverse history in this regard.
The BLP and the ALP have moved to the right in the last 20 years, as the political mass have also moved to the right. The traditional issues of class warfare/envy are rapidly disappearing, with the issues that are going to define the left-right divide in the future being social ones – republic, multiculturalism, etc – rather than economic ones.
In this regard, I think both British and Australian politics are soon going to reflect American ones, where the key division between the parties are over social issues rather than economics.
In fact, it’s quite likely that Australian politics will soon become even more economically conservative than American politics, as US Democrats are far more anti-free trade and anti-globalisation than ALP members.
Socrates… 54% isn’t just winning a seat. They got over 50% on the primaries. I take this poll as seriously as any poll with a similar sample size taken by someone with no reputation.
Grooski if i had Labor win, id rather they had a Senate majority or us have a Senate majority to force another election. The last thing i want is FF the Greens or Mr. X to hold the balance of power that’s not democratic and it prevents Government from carrying out their mandate.
The Greens and FF are extremists and the last thing i want is for them to shape the policies of the major parties.
are they your expected BALs , RGee?
Onimod – 396 – I’ll try.
When all we have is a 2 party system, it’s good when there is representation from both sides of the political spectrum – when the progressives and the conservatives both have a voice.
One of the most disappointing features of the current labor govt in NSW has been that, on issues like public transport (and in fact most issues), it has been so focused on user pays, and it is generally so far to the right, that the left no longer has any voice. Certainly, the Liberal opposition are not going to start espousing progressive values.
Hence, there is no progressive voice in the lower house in NSW (state parliament).
In those circumstances I sometimes wonder whether we’d be better off if the state labor govt was voted out, on the assumption that in opposition at least they would find a more progressive voice.
Of course, it’s just a theory – and perhaps it has been proven wrong by the way federal labor has behaved in opposition (ie.e playing it safe rather than demonstrating progressive values).
M
Glen
Do you really think the Libs would force a DD election – which would result in them losing Senators?
Remember the election would be called by Rudd and he would only call it if he thinks he would win comfortably.
Sorry its not going to happen.
My tip for 2PP – 51.7/48.3 to the ALP and a very tight race indeed.
In case any missed it , here. Put a smile onya dial!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&sdig=1
A bit of biffo between opposing volunteers would make things interesting…
i have had a good plonk on maxine @2.85 a week ago and if she gets up i think i might reinvest it in a geothermal company. it seems logical to to me to use natures nuclear reactor that is already cookin’…..just add water. anyway i might as well put the money towards a project that will help kev build the future for the kids.
everyone i talk to is excited at the prospect of change now and even some dodgy libs are keen to identify as kevinistas now!!
Question to serious psephs (I’m only an amateur pseph critic):
Has anyone matched polling results to days of the week or just workdays vs weekends?
I’ve posed before that, whether planned or not (I suspect planned), the ALP team has been conditioning the electorate toward favourable ALP/negative LibNat feelings on weekends. At some stage someone from the LibNats even spat the dummy over this (much like Dolly and KR’s Mandarin). At the time is was claimed was that the ALP were ‘rigging’ the [polls. Of course that’s such a dim view because the Nation votes on a weekend don’t they?
I’d love to know if there is any evidence of a 7 day oscillation. It could go some way to explaining the supposed bias’ of the different pollsters.
I’m raising this in Regards to Socrates at 450 – we do seem accepting of minor blips related to specific events, and I’ve definitely heard pollsters talking about rise and fall of ALP primaries in regard to months of the year.
What about days of the week anyone?
People might find this website rather interesting. A view of Howard, his chances in Bennelong, and Asian immigration from across the water…
#427 not surprised on the Uni of Adelaide poll. These days it’s possible that rightwing students outnumber leftwing. They’ve only known Howard.
#420, Lose the election please Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 11:10 am
No doubt a Dem-less parliament will be a true and regrettable loss to our democratic system.
Our suppositions are equally valid – and these mistakes though few have lead to their Dem-(pardon the pun)-ise.
Another problem is their supporter base. Labor has the Unions, Libs (business, layers and anyone who hates unions), Greens (all-sorts of environmental lefties) but with the Dem’s they were holding a candle in the darkness.
I know all the talk is about lib, Lab and 2pp etc…but I think our brief reflection will give some justice to them
F’ing brilliant!
That Sturt poll doesn’t seem right to me.
I have friends in the Sturt campaign and have always reported very positive responses – the vibe is very much with Mia. The other thing to remember is that the Democrats got a reasonable vote in Sturt at the last election; one would assume that these votes (if not going Democrat again) would shift 63/25 to Labor. Also, as the Green vote would in all likelihood be up, then the preferences would flow to Labor 80/20 or maybe even higher.
I understood that Pyne got about 50% on primaries last time and it makes no sense at all, in this current political climate and with a good candidate opposing him, for him to have lost hardly any of that. I know that it is a small sample and the MOE would be large (about 6%), but…hmmm.
Don’t forget Downer goes to air in 42 minutes …. don’t know much about McClelland but we will find out. Suspect that many of the questions will be about Pakistan ……
How can anyone say that the Greens are a mainstream social democratic party, when so many of their members are Trots? The Socialist Worker’s Party infiltrated the Greens from the very beginning.
Ruawake 456
Yes they would not be keen to give Labor a trigger would they? And could you imagine how Fielding of Family First would feel about a double dissolution, sitting on a 1% share of the vote?
LETP sorry you are right; I missread the Sturt poll and it was clear cut. But as you say, there is a wide margin of error, and no track record of the methodological reliability of the polling agency, so I don’t think its very reliable. Do you know if the Advertiser will be doing a Sturt poll in their series?
Socrates, the Advertiser already polled sturt a while ago. Result 48/52 (ALP/Coalition).
Courtice looks like just another old, grey, whinging, out-of-date loser – about as irrelevant as the rest of them.
Rudd doesn’t have to go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh (where is Dolly, anyway?), just one round with JoHo, and he’s ten points ahead!!
Bye, JoHo ….
Bird, if society shifts to the right and the Greens maintain the Social Democratic left, how are they not labelled extreme?
Relevancy is the key point here. If you lose relevancy in the political shift, you are risking the extreme label.
Relevancy is when your core message means something to people – rather than you being the party for donkey votes, angry frustrated ex-major party voters or voters trying to keep a balance between the two majors – Where your core messages matter more to society than the other parties.
That is why I reacted strongly to Thaddeus. The line that he will throw his vote to the Greens to screw over either of the two majors perpetuates the Greens irrelevancy. How many votes will they get Australia-wide for people doing this? How many of these people actually understand the Green’s message? Very few.
It is also why I said that the Greens need to win seats in the Lower and Upper in its own right so its message is then classed as relevant and then lose the “extreme” status
465 ShowsOn – Bloody classic.
Thanks Dangerous. Had to click on world to get the article.
Dangerous #462, it would be an exquisite Irony if JWH were turfed out of his seat due to booths in his electorate which have a predominantly Asian or NESB demographic. His anti-Asian comments in the 80’s, embracing Pauline in the 90’s and his fear and greed campaigning in the 00’s could turn around and bite him in the arse.
What then will the historians or right wingers say about our greatest ever PM, huh??
455 Michael
I thought that’s what you meant. You could be right.
Playing devils advocate (because of a lack of an informed personal viewpoint….) do you think a progressive opposition voice could cause a conservative government to pull up their socks and fix some of the problems, or are you suggesting that a term warming the bench for Labour would see their return better and brighter. The problem I have with the latter is that in Australia at the moment, I’m not sure they’d be returned?
Yes, it’s not about taking history back …….and its not about class warfare – having a schools funding system, like in Europe, based on social equity lines, not choice which is based on how much money you earn, is not class warfare (another RIght line when the left try and take a stand on social justice). I would argue that the LIberal Party is playing class warfare by running an elitist education and economic agenda in general. Taking a stand on some social justice issues is not class warfare …
When you say left-right – its like saying that capitalism is not 100% right wing – that for example, its not winner takes all, radically individualistic – and any intervention to this is of course left wing – its like saying that your starting base in a nothingness – there are no values or anything – if you pick a spot on the ideological spectrum there are values outcome…Right commentators will constantly try and tell you that ideology is dead – but what they mean is that left wing fundamentalism (old style socialism) is dead, its just been replaced by left and right.
Anyway, it might be 50 years time, when I have grey hair, that the Right are forced to go through the same changes that the left have gone through..
The Advertiser Sturt poll is far more believable, as the Adelaide Uni one is basically saying there is bugger all swing, which seems frankly ridiculous. Kenny in the Advertiser keeps referring to Pyne as a “popular local member”. I have not found one person I know that lives in Sturt who likes Pyne, and quite a few of them are liberal voters !
Aussieguru LMFAO
that was great
Good one Aussieguru
that would be 65/35 if I could type…
Be nice to see a love-in with, first, State Health Ministers and second,State Education Ministers. Agenda item 1: Vertical Fiscal Imbalance.
OK, here comes the government’s “king hit” on health that Shanahan alluded to a couple of weeks ago:
“Prime Minister John Howard and Health Minister Tony Abbott are in Cairns this morning where they are expected to make a major national health policy announcement.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/coalition-to-launch-health-policy/2007/11/15/1194766824007.html
Swing Lowe, I think neo-liberalism over-reached itself. It has won de facto support because we have been lucky to be living in benign economic times, mainly thanks to China’s admission to the WTO, with a resulting downward structural shift in inflation, allowing central banks in the developed world to loose monetary policy.
It is true there is non-partisan consensus on those tenets of neo-liberalism pertaining to macro-economic policy. These include a commitment to free trade, floating currencies, open capital markets, fiscal responsibility (cough), an independent inflation targeting central bank and decentralisation of wage fixing.
All of these reforms were achieved under the Hawke-Keating governments of 1983-1996, which makes the whole argument over who is the superior economic management irrelevant.
What has happened more recently is that under the shelter of tacit acceptance of neo-liberal policy, the extremists have attempted to extend the so far pragmatic dismantling of the welfare state to a logical conclusion. The initial manifestation of WorkChoices was emblematic of that over-reach.
Now what is happening in liberal democracies is that constients are rediscovering the fact that they have choices. You might now be able to work 18 hours a day at the expense of your family and the society you live in. But is that a good thing? Do we really want to go shopping for furniture at 3am, to be served by a single mother on a minimum wage?
Rudd’s line about flexibility with fairness taps into this sentiment nicely.
There seems to a rough consensus that things were sitting at 55/45 at the start of the week, in fact Reuters put it at 55.3/44.7.
Since then we have had a very flat Howard launch and a remarkably well-received Rudd launch. Little things are going wrong for the Coalition: another Immigration screw-up, a GG reporter sending silly e-mails, use of an uninspiring Labor rat in an uninspiring ad, the Auditor General’s Report on Regional Funding.
All in all, momentum is really with the ALP.
So, forecasts of a 2, 3 or 4% drift over the next 9 days seem to be based on hope rather than common sense.
Much more likely is a growing bandwaggon effect of the sort that the MSM are starting to display. Very conservatively this could be put at an increase of 2 to 2.5% in the ALP vote on election day. Let’s say 58/42.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-skirts-round-gillard-grilling/2007/11/15/1194766822747.html
Interesting read in the SMH. Some good comebacks by Rudd. It appears that Bob The Farmer is a coalition stooge.
Does anyone know of an ethnicity based poll around somewhere, where we could get a view on the impact of demographic change in Bennelong? My general feeling is that the Asian vote is largely conservative. The Libs appear to appeal to many core Asian social values, although this may be counterbalanced by the coalition flirting with racist (one nation) elements in the electorate.
Everyone please note – I’m no expert, just asking the question.
483 – is health now so unimportant that they don’t announce it at their launch? Mind you, there wasn’t a lot there from Labor either.
Perhaps more in the pipeline?
Brian Mc it depends on what your idea of common sense is. My idea is that common sense would tell you 58/42 is not probable and will most likely not happen.
Ominod – agree entirely – labor has to win this election. it is the last chance to repudiate howard’s way of governing (ie by division and prejudice). after this election, if he wins howard will leave on his own terms and everyone will think he was a great PM and subsequent PM’s will model themselves on him. he has to lose
Where can the live feed for the FP debate be found? Having trouble here…
491 – try newsradio.
Noocat #483,
Can’t wait for the election, and the expression on Mr. Shanahan’s face when he realises that his blatant bias has forfeited him the inside track on political events under the new Labor Government.
John Button #486,
I agree. Rudd’s “better part of courage” comment was a good one.
The Advertiser poll said there has been an 0.5% swing to Labor on the primary, and that Pyne was leading the 2pp 52 – 48. That in itself was unbelievable.
This Uni of Adelaide poll says there is a 4.5% swing to Labor on primaries, but nearly all of it is coming from minor parties. (Family First and Greens). The fact they don’t break down the 10% not voting Labor or Liberal makes it hard to make any sense of the result.
If both of the polls are HALF right, then it is currently 50/50.
#487 NB you are right. Most Asians are conservative and not political. Reason is that they are mainly economic migrants. BTW the Asian vote is not 40% as per that Salon article. More like 17%.
re the ABC online poll – i’ve just voted 40 times. got bored and stopped.
Let me get this right. The Coalition has already made a fairly comprehensive policy announcement on primary health care and hospitals, much of which had been previously flagged (a la Mersey Hospital). Then they have a formal campaign launch, where they focus almost solely on the economy and in Labor’s strengths of education, child care and the environment. No mention of anything further coming on health, but now suddenly there is a new health policy – and a MAJOR NATIONAL one at that?
Anyone else sense policy on the run? Or more me-tooing of Labor policy, perhaps?
LIndsay voter at 434: I’d get the grog into the fridge early if I was you. You’ll be chugging it by 7.30pm, before the polls have closed out west and no-one but a Pom would want to drink warm beer.
Mr Denmore
Thank you for your comments.
If you really research neoliberalism the results do not stack up against what its proponents say…….I think the smark thinkers on the left know its not about going back to socialism, its about presenting a mixed economy – egalitarian, strong economy and where people are in charge of capitalism – if you want to be an agent for capitalist fundamentalism, and the next billion dollars of Nike, hey, be a neoliberal!! If you want tobe an agent for people then you are going to have go integrate the right with the left.
Chinda
Well yes perhaps that is why I first reacted too. I also live in Sturt and that was my perception too. My wife noted that last Saturday as we shopped at Norwood a Liberal campaigner was there and people were avoiding her glance. Pyne has done nothing excet post out guff at our expense IMO so he should be vulnerable.
BTW can you get Mia to raise questions about his “promise” to fix the Waterloo Roundabout. I don’t see how Pyne can do this. No funds have been allocated under AusLink. It could be funded as a local govt project but to my knowledge the Councils concerned have not agreed on a solution. Meanwhile it is not on the National Land transport Network so there seems no mechanism for the Feds to fund a State delivered solution either. Ask Pyne to “put up or shut up” on that one. Otherwise it is pure spin.
ShowsOn what you say regarding the Labor primary vote with the Advertiser poll is incorrect. The Advertiser do not remove undecided or no answer from their %’s. Therefore you cannot directly compare the Advertiser primary vote with the 2004 election for example, or the Adelaide Uni poll.
NB
I raised this same issue on the Bennelong seat du jour page.
I think I agree, but it’s a tough subject to discuss on a board given the racial themes.
I have been meaning to write this a while back but the comments @ 365 and 56 have trigged it. Many of you are fawning over Anthony Green; we have middle man almost at the point of wanting to have Anthony’s baby (Not rosemary’s baby). We have Anthony this Anthony that. Do I look smart in my new cardigan Anthony? It’s sickening. He is no rock star. He is too articulate for that. If he walked around the ABC in skin tight licra saying rock’n & roll and can we have that turned up to 11, I could understand the fawning. He is no hornbag as Red Kerry is. He comes on this blog site with the name of Anthony Green. Not something smart like Red Tony or Auntie’s abacuses. Then all discussions stop and we have 20 or so postings about how great Anthony is. Now we have the twee comments about how on election night he is going to drop the “Natucket sleigh ride” statement. The king & Queen fawners are imploring us to say the liberal are cat food and scull a glass of beer. Why doesn’t Anthony have the guts to say “The liberals look like they are having $ex with cat food over their genit@ls”. Try sculling if he said that
Mersey Hospital takeover is still in limbo because Abbott is doing due diligence.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091563.htm
And they’re about to do a major health announcement? The Mad Monk can’t take a trick even if it was given it to him.
This means sweet FA – but spied a cacky-colored van in Church Street, Parramatta, this morning. It was plastered all over with posters for the Lib candidate, whatshisname. It was an old van. Yeah, ok, so what, I hear you cry.
Trouble is, it was firmly afixed to a large tow truck – off to the wrecker’s yard, busted, broken, stuffed. The latte sippers at the Paris end of Church Street were no doubt impressed.
Auditor-general gives Rat big serve over Regional Pork scheme …
“Anyone else sense policy on the run? Or more me-tooing of Labor policy, perhaps?”
Or more pork? Perhaps an increase in the private health insurance rebate?
I suspect that the government always planned it this way. They wouldn’t have wanted any favourable press from Labor’s launch to last for long. And the best way of sucking oxygen out of that is to announce a big policy.
Anyway, whatever it is, I suspect that it will be too late. Rudd has already promised to fix up the health system and announced various funding initiatives. Howard will probably just throw even bigger bucks at it, but not necessarily doing any better. He has a tendency to go for the popular (i.e., pork) rather than the most effective way of improving something.
“Prime Minister John Howard and Health Minister Tony Abbott are in Cairns this morning where they are expected to make a major national health policy announcement.”
I hope Abbott’s not due at a debate in another state….
Colin,
Spot on. Those who claim Bishop won the debate against Smith ignore the contradictory arguments.
One example: she claimed every secondary school student had access to a computer. Then, in trying to claim Labor’s costings were too low she said the Victorian Government had recently put out a tender for computers in all schools and gave a figure on the tenders received.
But if you want any more proof that Bishop’s performance was a fizzer, note that she has completely changed her tack today. Now, she’s peddling the line that Labor did not say anything about teachers.
adl: It’s Antony, not Anthony. If you’re going to rant, at least get his name right.
yes, well, antony’s name’s not the only spelling error. licra??
503 adl – I read this post carefully, twice. I haven’t got a clue as to what you are getting at. Can anyone help adl out here?
This is rubbish.
Please give an example of any prominent candidates, officials or organisers in the Greens who have SWP backgrounds.
I must say I agree, ADL. I think the word is “sycophants”.
Antony’s great. He studies elections for a living.
It’s his job, people. Get over it.
#503 adl, tough day at the office?
On the subject of posters who piss you off though, my favourites would have to be the “William, just dropped another $20 in the kitty.” variety. (Perhaps a little harsh coming from someone yet to contribute a cent, but do the rest of us really need to know about your generosity?)
I personally find the “Julie Bishop is hot” posts more offensive (not to mention incomprehensible)than any fawning over Antony, William, Adam (do you have people lined up to ask those dorothy dixers by the way?).
Anyway, lighten up adl, lie back and enjoy the massacre.
Smith & Bishop
The debate is a certain coloured herring.
So Smith isn’t a TV performer…big deal…at least he doesn;t look like he belongs on the ‘Days of our Lives’ set.
Education was seen as wedgable a long time ago. Smith has, from my understanding, done a bloody fantastic job convincing those in the Education industry of his and the ALP’s cred on this issue, and it’s all been done behind the scenes without the petty soundbite policy development the LibNats seem to engage in.
The hard yards on education – getting the teachers and administrators on board – was actually completed some time ago, and without wedging off another group to boot. Diplomacy politics.
Unfortunately Smith’s future in the meeja might be limited, but not everyone’s a show pony – some just pull a plough day in and day out.
A case of shoot the pollster…..
Love your work and gear Antony, Anthony,
Ominod
I have heard the same re Smith. He’s a very very very effective performer – in the real world.
Re the Page poll of 300 people undertaken by the Daily Examiner and Nothern Star referred to in a recent thread:
http://www.northernstar.com.au/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3754937&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=
You may recall it said ALP 44, Nat 41, Undecided 15 in 2PP terms.
I said a couple of days ago that I had written to the journo involved to seek more info. He has replied quite promptly and courteously – quicker than I expected.
He told me that the survey was done over a week, between Tuesday October 30 and Tuesday November 6. All survey respondents were contacted by phone, with calls spread across the region and numbers of calls weighted differently in different towns to reflect the population spread. The towns focused on in the survey included Lismore (including surrounding suburbs such as Goonellabah), Casino, Ballina, Maclean, Yamba, and Grafton. The phone numbers were randomly selected from the White Pages. Calls were made through the day, starting in the morning and continuing through until about 7.30pm, each day including the weekend.
He’s sent me some more data and they indicate what looks like an over-representation of old people (especially over 65s) and women, without actually going to the census data, which is kind of what you’d expect in a primarily daytime poll. So I’d say the survey over-represents conservative voters, but not by much.
Interestingly they also asked voters their vote in the prevvious election. It isn’t done up in 2PP terms, but looking at it I’d say that the survey only underestimates the Nat 2PP voters from previous election by about 1.5%, which is within MOE.
I think the key figure was this: 19 voters ( 6.3%) were previously National Party and now say they’ll vote Labor, whereas only 2 voters (0.7%) were former Labor voters who now were voting National. The movement between the minor parties doesn’t really affect this observation, which implies a swing to Labor of about 5.7%. This is just slightly more than (and not significantly different from) the 5.5% swing required for the seat to change hands.
Thanks to Alex Easton of the Daily Examiner / Northern Star.
ADL = Advanced Dickshite Loony.
oh dear dolly doctor sky news feed
502 and NB
I recently managed to get a straw poll result across a diverse sample of Chinese/Korean groups in Bennelong. Their diversity of opinion is as varied as you get on this site. There was groupthink, Labor/Liberal biases, sophisticated progressive thinkers and swinging voters.
Anything more scientific than that would be difficult without crosschecking booth results and census data.
Also the Bennelong electorate has changed significantly since 2004 beyond the boundary change. Lots more second degree professional types like Nth Sydney, have bought into the better areas.
Sure stopped any assumptions I may have had about Chinese voting patterns.
ladies..and gentlemen, if you are so predisposed, the latest beefcake calender
http://www.momonsexposed.com
good grief, will the Brethren do the same to raise funds for Jwh?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/people/mormon-missionaries-strip-for-calendar/2007/11/15/1194766828283.html
519 – yes, derek, and he probably requires assistance with his ADLs (activities of daily living).
mormansexposed.com should work
C’mon – where is that debate feed? Can’t find it anywhere!
What on earth was that mindless screed about, ADL?
I expect things to tighten some, but I’ll go 53.5 on the night.
Which reminds me, I got over excited the other day and said 89 seats. But Id like to officially stay with my original call of 85.
http://abc.net.au/streaming/networktv.asx
Top of page here MC http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Page (continued):
I should add that there are, of course, some new or first time voters in the seat, which eaplains why the implied 2PP swing from looking at the vote switchers (5.7%) is less than the 7.5% 2PP swing implied from comparing the overall survey figures (44/41, which becomes 52/48 when undecideds are excluded) with the previous election.
Note that only a minority of the undecideds previously voted Labor at the 2004 election, many more voted Nat. If they all reverted to their 2004 vote, it would be 50/50.
Sheesh, what a couple of plonkers.
Hi everyone – warning: shameless promotion below. I know it’s not the right forum and will be happy to accept criticism, but think the people here will enjoy it.
I worked on a small independent film late last year which is finally being released about the country, called ‘The Independent’. It’s a mockumentry about (you guessed right) an Independent candidate running for state parliament in the seat of Richmond, Vic. written and directed by the son of the Hon. Niel O’Keefe. Has some funny moments and a lot of dark undertones about the way the party system operates. You can also play pick the real independent cameo (although he wasn’t an independent at that stage – I’ll leave you to speculate who). You can read about it here: http://www.abc.net.au/atthemovies/txt/s2081608.htm
Theres also a review in the Herald Sun treeware version (not online yet). Playing in Vic, soon to be released nationally.
Hope I haven’t pissed too many people off…
I know ….. I haven’t heard Downer speak at any length before (when question time is on, I mute him if he is speaking) and have forced myself to listen to this so I have some comparison to McClelland. Isn’t he AWFUL? (And that is just the speaking part of his persona; I am not even touching the policy differences with the ALP)
Both look like they have been at the “all you can eat” buffet.
In the current electoral climate it seems absurd to me that Labor’s vote in Sturt has improved by only 0.5%.
In 2004 Labor hardly campaigned in Sturt at all, whereas this election they have.
In this election they have a really good candidate in Mia Handshin.
In this election Labor has a leader who people want to vote for.
All these things suggest to me that Labor will get a substantial swing on the primary vote. This seems to be reflected in the Adelaide uni poll where there is a 5% primary vote swing to Labor.
NB, if that’s the worst thing that happens on PollBludger today…
then we’re having a good day
521 Ed
Thanks
Thank you all.
OH winner
:):) … McClelland is talking about the AWB scandal 
Can we have a debate thread, William? Can we? Can we? pleeeeeeze?
476 [are you suggesting that a term warming the bench for Labour would see their return better and brighter. ]
Wayne Goss told his team to ‘go and take a cold shower’ on election night and they never quite regained balance and lost the next election. I hope that Rudd announces an early mini -budget to set the direction for his first term and begin the move away from the excesses of the Howard regime. It would send a good signal to the reserve bank and get the Tories on the back foot early.
Mcllelands making some good points, his delivery isn’t that great though. He’s got heaps to work with though and one of the most preposterous parliamentarians of all time sitting next to him…
348 Julie
Thanks for that info, as I am no political analyst… yet, every bit counts.
I have to thank Howard for the fact that I do have an interest in politics, so the years of blatant abuse did achieve a little bit and I bet I’m one of many.
Oh, and I can’t forget the gun laws either.
Apart from that, I will call his reign “the years of nought!”
This is good from McClelland…he’s pointing out the rigged terms of the Cole Inquiry.
Please keep the debate summaries coming folks. Can’t really get away with tuning in at work atm…
Now McClelland is bringing up Fraser and Whitlam’s accountability letter of the other day, he is on a ROLL
Dolly on ABC – stumbling. Looks like shite warmed up … Macca doen’t look much better … Dolly is, I think, asleep, or quite unwell if not dead … this is gruesome … Macca’s getting into stride … Iraq stuff … AWB … bribes … whacking Dolly … it’s getting better … no one accountable … this is a nice spray …
Mc. talking about exit strategy from Iraq
Question 1: would Downer commit to 3 yrs as FM? Answer? Maybe – then took an opportunity to attack McClelland.
passthepopcorn @ 496
hahahahahhh
Downer ended last question (talking about his future plans) by saying ” ….. and I hope that I can survive.” ….
sounds like he has accepted it already
McClennand’s delivery is terrible, with so much to work with too. I noticed everyone on the Libs side saying he was a good bloke after his last speech. He still seems to be being a good bloke, attempting to make Downer seem interesting. Doing a good job.
Downers first answer to a question the most defeatist I’ve heard anyone yet…
About the brand of computer for the schools–Apple of course! Not only the platform of the future, you can run Mac OS, Windoze & Unix on it.
zzZZZZzzZZzzZZZZZZzzZZZzzzz
does that some up the debate ?
sounds like it
The thing with Downer on Iraq is that you get the impression that he actually believes the drivel he is talking. This is what makes him such a standout buffoon.
Downer starting on Rudd and the slogans. Can’t wait till he calls him a showoff again. He’s like a slighted schoolboy with a big crush gone snooty.
McClelland reiterating the policy to withdraw combat troops from Iraq and also specifying which troops will stay (security detachment, ships in the Gulf, etc.)
Question 2: Age to Downer – Given the Iraq situation, does Downer have any personal regrets about going there?
Response – Getting rid of SH was good for Iraq. It’s been good for security to get rid of him. The situation in Iraq is improving. Decline in deaths. Progress on political terms. “We’ve been right” about staying in Iraq. The Surge was good. Claims lack of understanding of ALP’s position on Iraq. Attack on Rudd. “It worries me about Labor”.
McC – Iraq HAS been an humanitarian, strategic and tactical distaster. It’s emboldened Iran, empowered A-Q and weakened troops. Intend to withdraw troops, but not C-130s, ships or security personnel.
well, sean, the thing with pathological liars is that they DO believe it all, in the face of all evidence against…
Downer talking over the next questioner, quibbling about rules with the chair, wanting to respond again to the question he led off answering.
“i go first all the time and that’s what happens when you’re the minister”. get me a bucket.
Macca does not look good. Downer looks his usual arrogant-self and argues with the Chair.
Caroline Overington has had a melt down. She posted a new article on GG and after one comment about her Wentworth email she is appearing to have blocked all further comment.
Problem is it was the first comment made that resulted in the shut down.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/labor/asc/#commentsmore
just for interest sake I was suggesting the abscence of Fraser at the Lib launch was more significant than the attendance of Gough, Paul and Bob at the ALP launch- they always attend those.
Thaddeus, you have to be joking. I lived in Grafton for a few years and from my knowledge you could count the number of progressive people on one hand, similar to where i live now a little further down the coast. By the way no chance ALP will win Cowper candidate is useless.
Downer is getting quite upset at speaking first each time, as it gives McClelland a chance to respond to what Downer says
Show’s on: At the 2004 election, rounded up to the nearest %, the primary votes in Sturt were liberal 52%, and labor 35% (ie a gap of 17%).
In the Advertiser Sturt poll from 5-Oct (remembering we can’t compare absolute numbers), the result was liberal 44%, labor 35% on primaries (ie a gap of 9%).
Disregarding the absolute numbers, I think we both agree that those differences are quite significant.
In fact, if we do this same analysis for the Adelaide Uni poll, we have liberal on 50%, labor on 40% (ie a gap of 10%).
So I think I have now convinced myself, that on a relative scale, the adelaide uni and Advertiser polls are actually not that different. Its the preferences that are being distributed very differently !
Indeed, I fully expect labor to win Sturt.
Makes the turnbull – Garret debate look pretty good.
Downer – (on nuclear proliferation and selling uranium to countries like India)
trying to talk up the countries contributions to nuclear disarmament under his watch and hasn’t mentioned one word about the discrepancy of also selling uranium to India silmultaneously
scratch that – there they are
Exit strategy from Kirribilli – Good one.
Macca is bit like Swan. Terrible opening but he is getting better with the Q&As.
AFR to both – Question regarding full elimination of nuclear weapons. Downer “deep-sixed” report on elimination of nukes – has Downer decided to act on Non-proliferation, or is he just talking about it? And is Labor committing to the Keating policy.
Downer: “I go first all the time. And that’s what happens when you’re the minister”. Idiot. Claims that he met with the Canberra Commission twice, and was presented the report. Claims credit for the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. Claims that the only way to get disarmament is to work gently, not use pressure.
– Looked up CBTT – negotiated 1993. Adopted 9/96. Not Howard Gov’t work.
McClelland: ALP is committed to driving an international agenda to ban nuclear weapons.
for somethign off topic (again):
it seems burkegate has opened a rift in the Liberals, while strenthing Alan Carpenter’s position.
oh the irony
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091638.htm
I think we can all agree that the Garrett v Turnbull debate was the best one in terms of substance.
This debate will probably be one of the more irrelevant ones (up there competing with Hockey v Gillard…)
Re #532 NB – The Independent got a reasonable review from Margaret Pomeranz & David Stratton on At the Movieslast night…
Dave
That overington piece is hilarious. Cos Gough, Bob and paul were at the launch Caroline has brilliantly concluded that ‘labor thinks it has won’.
The message is clear good readers of the GG. Punish them for their Hubris!
The AWB thing must surely have been ghost written. She just goes from bad to worse.
Anyway, thanks for giving me a break from this dead boring debate.
Downer seems to have a hearing problem. Can’t hear the bell telling him when his time is up…
GG to both – given the Pacific Is. meltdown, what does Australia need to do.
McClelland – “Arc of responsibility”. Acknowledges Government action in region. Notes lack of improvement, and committs to ongoing ties to gain Australia influence inthe region.
Downer – Shouldn’t generalise in Pacific Islands. Says that Australia shouldn’t look weak – as if we could dealing with them. Claims that Sol Islands is a success of Australian froeign policy. Claims that Fiji has a “coup culture”. Attended Fiji meeting, hopes for democracy in Fiji by March 2009. Mentions the “Monty Affair”, claims that we work well with PNG. Must be strong, not weak. Sounds petualnt at the end, accusing ALP of weakness.
Irrelevant debate: Downer won’t be Foreign Minister for much longer, Rudd will give the gig to Crean or Bob McMullen. Rob McClelland doesn’t inspire, and Dolly Downer is a buffoon.
From the News Ltd blog:
At least they have a sense of humour over there…
A problem the Libs seem to have in general…
Isabella@101
Your comments on productivity and taxation…. untill you understand that you cant put a dollar figure on everything you wont understand the left.
A large pay packet doesnt not make a person more valuable to society, or indicate they are a bigger contributer, it does mean they take more.
Productivity and taxation only have a direct link if you can put a price on everything.
“Some people know the price of everything and the value of nothing” – ?
Downer: ‘The terrorists…’ and ‘these are wicked, evil people…’. Such hollow, easy rhetoric.
Question to both – techniques of interrogation – what would be acceptable? Is torture acceptable?
Downer – In Aus, we have our own standards, applied by ALP and ASIO. When we see nations exceed our standards, we object. (WTF? Guantanamo?) Aus troops always uphold our standards overseas. Goes on about terrorists – gotta be strong in dealing with them.
McC – Long-term advantage to repudiating torture – hearts and minds, long-term fight against extremism. Quotes Israeli HC judge – terrorists cannot destroy our souls, only we can.
Showoff question!
I present to you the lead story in the Sydney newspapers tomorrow:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22763205-29277,00.html
It’s a pity really. This debate could be one of the most interesting because foreign affairs are very interesting and important to Australia’s future. But what we have here are two of not very attractive and engaging mind and intellect.
Rudd needs a new FM and Downer is a FM we don’t need.
That guy is gunna get sent to Egypt!
he used “show-off”!
hahahaha…..Dolly been asked to speak in french
468 – Gary
A very strange statement about trots in the Greens. There are an awful lot of ex-ALP people in the Greens, me amongst them, but not many trots as far as I can tell. I know lots of IS and SWP people socially here in Melbourne and none of them came across. Most are still involved in SA or SEP. Lots of people came to the Greens from the NDP (now they were entryed!), the Rainbow Alliance, the peace movement and of course the environmental movement. We have had a few spoilers from the ALP doing a bit of spying. Now that was fun! A couple of people may have been in Resistance in their youth, but even trots cast off their childish ways
Of course we see the trots on election day. They tend to see the day as a recruitment drive, and start up conversations with our younger members and try and convince them that The Greens are a bourgeois party (what a surprise), there’s no parliamentary road to democracy, join the worker’s at the coal face etc etc. They don’t hand out many HTVs.
Reporter asking Downer about his comments about Rudd speaking Mandarin. Said can you respond in French (the French embassy has people in the room here) to tell us how important Europe is to the Australian foreign policy?
Downer answering in English, can’t even responsd proprely to the bloody question. Claiming humility and saying he doesn’t want to be a show off ….. then he answers one French line at the end anyways …. moron ……
dreadful frog accent!
Lib Pork barrelling exposed by Audit
A Federal Auditor-General report into funding of the controversial regional partnerships program suggests the Howard Government has favoured Coalition-held electorates.
A performance audit released today shows Federal Government ministers were more likely to approve funding for projects not recommended by their department because applications came from Liberal and Nationals electorates.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/audit-exposes-coalition-porkbarrel/2007/11/15/1194766833352.html
What a sense of humour – loved it!
McClelland just got the news grab: ‘I can’t speak Mandarin, but I’ve certainly eaten one or two.’
Howard’s big health announcement: increased funding in exchange for hospital boards being set up?
Where is Rudd campaigning today? Or are he and his lovely wife still enjoying their anniversary?
Qustion to Downer about APEC and Rudd’s language stunt – asks Downer to speak some French and prove that he can. To see how well he can.
Downer refuses. States that it isn’t a serious issue. Talks about DFAT training courses – language. Won’t answer the question – claims that it would be showing-off to speak French. Says that Rudd is a show-off. Then speaks some French (not sure how well).
McC – jokes about eating Mandarin, not speaking it (Downer makes off-colour joke to interject). Notes EU’s importance to Pacific Islands Forum, and notes size of European market.
Very surprised to see that no one yet has asked a single question about Pakistan. Current question on deck is about Vietnam War …..
Apparently there were 300 people sampled by the Newcastle Herald for the seat of Paterson, I’m going from someone else’s recollection.
In primary vote Baldwin is on 46.3%, Arnesan 33%. And I thought Paterson would be one of the big swingers, unless the Labor vote is severely understated, it looks like the sea-changers are assisting in giving Baldwin a third-term.
BTW, don’t know who did the polling, so until then assume a large MoE.
#592
15 of those programs were signed off one hour before the election was called.
Now questions to both on torture … dolly waffles about standards … there are arguments in other countries then goes on rant about deaths … Macca goes philosophical … Macca prob won that one …
Dolly trying to make joke … calls Rudd show-off breaks into French … this is now comedy hour … Macca: “I can’t speak Mandarin, but I’ve eaten a few in my time ..”
Tis becoming a joke …
So is Dolly gay or what?
Dear Comrades-I for one am going to continue trying to post on Overington’s blog. She is blocking at the moment so I’ll post it here
“Hi sweetie, you are a coward. Your hypocrisy is amazing. When the spotlight is turned on you, you run and hide. But when you are the journalist you can do whatever you want. You are a disgrace. And we are going to repeat this every time you post a blog. Career closed. As a colour writer, stick to the puff pieces and leave the politics for real journalists.”
Martin B
Yes, the Greens policy positions are now the Social Democratic Left -cause Labor are where the Liberal Party usedto be
Its not about where a specific person is, its where the overall gist/values of their policies are…to be frank, so what is one of them is from the Socialist Forum!!
To Downer – will he accept that Vietnam was a mistake, and will he admit that there are parallels (faulty intelligence). Calls on Downer to answer earlier question regarding would we go back there if we knew what we know (Downer continues to interrupt).
Downer – Says that yes, we should have gone back. Claims that Saddam was developing WMDs, and supporting terrorism. Refuses to talk about Vietnam.
Campaigning in Brisbane’s south. Can’t remember the name of the electorate but I do remember that is is currently held by the Libs at a 9% margin. He was at a highschool this morning looking at their computers ……
Caroline is on at the OZ?
I might have post to her about the weather to play with her a bit.
I know…childish but fun, as I don’t take the bait.
Have the Advertiser made any mention on the Sturt Poll by Adeliade Uni? Somehow I doubt it…… If it was Cornes in Boothby on the other hand it would be front page news.
stephen hill, the MoE seems to be a very misunderstood concept on this blog. it has nought to do with who did the polling but has everything to do with the sample size.
Downer is treating the Iraq question like a joke. How pathetic. At least Macca is doing better on this topic.
The attitudes of Downer, McClelland and the media at this debate is a DISGRACE.
Geez, what a couple of plodders! One a nice plodder, the other an obnoxious twat plodder
I got this email from someone who used to vote for Howard and isn’t planning to this time. She’s religious and is going to vote for FF in the Senate. When these normally conservative types abandon JWH I think you know something is up.
The clocks of Heaven
A man died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St.Peter at
The Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him. He asked,
“What are all those clocks?”
St. Peter answered, “Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on Earth has a
Lie-Clock. Every time you lie the hands on your clock will move.”
“Oh,” said the man, “Whose clock is that?” “That’s Mother Teresa’s.
The hands have never moved, indicating that she never told a lie.”
“Incredible,” said the man. “And whose clock is that one?”
St. Peter responded, “That’s Abraham Lincoln’s clock. The hands have
Moved twice, telling us that Abe told only two lies in his entire
Life.”
“Where’s John Howards’ clock?” asked the man.
“Howards’ clock is in Jesus’ office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.”
The Overington blog IS accepting posts again. Its open slather. Enjoy!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/labor/
Strange line from Dolly, something like “I’m married to my wife and we do things together …” Er?
McClelland responds that the US has questioned its own wisdom, and points out that the invasion of Iran has strengthened Iran immeasurably.
To Downer – Has the focus on Iraq meant that we’ve lost interest in local areas?
To McC – Is ALP committed to a more independant foreign policy?
To McC – Yes, Iraq has distracted us from local issues (ref – Philippine terror camps). Quotes Pentagon report showing local strength for AQ. Confirms that ALP are committed to a more independant relationship, while retaining US friendship.
Downer – Says he’s always talking about local area. Casts doubt on ALP’s ability to read. Claims immense cooperation with Indonesia. Claims that AFP success in counter-terrorism is due to cooperation. Ignores cutoff bell. Claims that Evans was too grand to deal with Sth Pacific, alleges neglect. Sounds very petty about it, too.
Thanks Julie.
I’m not at all familiar with the geography of Brisbane. I presume Rudd was in Dickson this morning? That seat has a 9% margin.
This has been the worst debate ever. These two need their heads knocked together. Downer is an arrogant puffed up buffoon and McClelland a bore and pushover. The sooner neither is allowed on a frontbench again, the better.
I repeat Rudd needs a new FM and Downer is not the FM we need. Rudd being an ex diplomat should know what attributes that would make a good FM. Just a gut feeling, maybe Garrett would learn and grow into a good FM if given the opportunity.
shame rudd can’t be PM AND foreign minister.
re 601 & 614, well, now you menton it, when Dolly was a student at the ANU, the rumour was that he was indeed a very happy chappy. But you didn’t hear that from me…..
McClelland’s closing was about 45 seconds long. Downer’s not much longer. What’s doing there?
Similar results to Costello/Swan debate I think. McClelland nervous at the beginning, warms to the debate as questions go on. Downer (like Costello) is a moron when trying to do standup speaking. He would do well to take some lessons from Turnbull I think.
Very mild edge to McClelland imho.
When the bell goes off why don’t they just cut the mic.
Howard Hater Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Thanks Julie.
I’m not at all familiar with the geography of Brisbane. I presume Rudd was in Dickson this morning? That seat has a 9% margin.
I do not thick it could be Dickson That is in Brisbane north heading towards the Sunshine Coast
Burgey @ 621,
I’m guessing it’s got to do with TV time constraints and scheduling.
616,
HH, I live in SW Sydney. I have no idea about Brisbane either. Ruawake? What is the electorate held by the Libs at 9% in Brisbane’s south?
Christ if you were a journalist at that debate you would want the meal to be pretty good!
Hugh White and another expert on Skynews said is a draw because both Macca and Downer were aiming for a draw. This is a biggest non event.
McClelland’s closing speech was to the point.
Downer waffled, attacked Labor, roused up bad unionists bogeyman, inexperience etc…
Downer is clearly desperate and will do anything to win.
That debate was shocking
McClelland was either nervous, or he is generally incapable delivering speeches. Don’t know enough about him to say which.
Ms Downer was her typical smug and pathetic self. BTW, I speak french OK and that was shocking french.
Biggest non-event so far.
Mostly a non-event, but McClelland performed better than Downer – not that that’s hard.
The seat in Brissie is Bowman as mentioned in this article http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2091698.htm
Rudd could be in R Vasta of printer gate fame seat (Con Sacicas ? old steat).
For those wanting info on election night coverage on the ABC, here is the full text of their media release.
(Sorry for the length)
God … dolly says it will be union officials in charge of foreign policy … he’s thrown in the towel … Macca is awful on the stump … but, after all, that’s not his job. Solid back-room boy, which is what is required …
SUMMARY: Tired old stuff from Downer. Earnest, workmanlike performance from Macca.
RESULT: Probably Macca, by a nose.
618,
I said the very same thing about Peter over a year ago to a good friend
. So while I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see it happen, I really do think Peter will be moved to Aboriginal Affairs. I don’t know who they have that is really suited to the FM job. Some have said Simon Crean but I don’t know enough about his career to be able to form my own judgement on that one. It will be interesting certainly to see whom he does chose though. Having been a FM himself in the past, he will know exactly what is required and involved so of any of the ministers, you would expect the FM to be the “best” suited one for the job.
Agreed it isn’t McClelland.
Howard Hater @ 578 I’d choose mcmullan over crean. what are people thoughts on mcmullan? I reckon he gets shut in the box a bit, i dunno why hes no buffoon hes quite articulate the times i’ve seen him interviewed.
closing up both dolly and macca were bloody terrible.
Diogenes (602)
You’re probably flogging a dead hack there mate.
IMHO, the health of our society isn’t served by us on the left getting down in the gutter with the other side, or slipping into ad hominim (spelling?) attacks and ways of expression that may cause escalation and further entrenchment of positions. Its all so futile – (visions of the Somme – frontline moving by a few miles back and forth over years – death and mud everywhere )
She seems like a very strong and confident person, but you just never know, that could be a front for a fragile personality and a torrent of personal abuse could have tragic consequences.
i understand your passion (particularly in an election period) but we on the left should be behaving better than those on the far right.
Observer Says: So is Dolly gay or what?
I’ve always thought so (not that there’s anything wrong with that)
After that debate, it is worth reminding people that if Howard wins and steps down, Downer might well be Treasurer under Costello. A cartoonists dream.
McClelland has summed up why the ALP are just full of hot air and have no real plans for the future, he spent 7.5mins of his opening address to attack the Howard Government on the past and had .5mins to talk about Labor’s foreign policy agenda. Downer spent 2mins on the past and 6mins on the future, go figure which side is focused on the future.
So much for arguing the Howard government is about the past, Downer showed just how much we’ve achieved over the past 11.5 years and how well we’ve engaged with Asia and the Pacific region and what the Howard government has in store.
The only idea we’ve got of Labors Foreign Policy is, withdraw from iraq but leave 2/3rds of the troops there, have an ‘independent foreign policy’ and ratify kyoto there is nothing else nada thing!
Downer is a clear performer and the best FM i think we’ve ever had to put him up against Robert McClelland in a debate is downright cruel for McCelland the poor bastard didn’t know what hit him, Downer smacked him down in the first question pointing out McClelland had spent almost no time outlining Labor’s FP agenda.
Downer = clear winner of the debate.
McClelland = if Rudd wins he’ll have tourism or special minister of state after this performance.
off topic, but that typist Overington is getting spanked over her GG blog, very amusing.
I can see why Rudd was in Bowman today.
Latest odds on that seat:
COALITION 1.85
LABOR 1.85
I dare someone to ask CO for an interview.
Geln writes: “Downer is a clear performer and the best FM i think we’ve ever had…”
Shouldn’t that be the best MF we’ve ever had?
You guys probably mean Ryan, which has about a 10% margin and which previous posters on here have said Labor believes it can win, bordering on being confident.
Re Glen
Best FM ever, what about Doc Evatt IE UN establishment etc. What Downer’s claim to fame, The anti Kyoto 6
Glen, I didn’t notice any plans for the future from either of them. They both came across as clowns, and both made their parties look worse. That was not a good advertisement for politics or encouragement for engagement. Terrible from both for so many reasons, and if I were scoring them, both would be in the negative. I’m not sure who lost less, but I’m sure neither individual, or their parties, will be crowing about that debacle.
Rudd off to Dawson this afternoon. The ALP is getting confident if it’s aiming for QLD seats with margins over 8%.
Not really too interested in that debate… but when our current foreign policy is to photocopy the US foreign policy it can’t be hard to improve on that.
..although I guess Bowman is also just as likely
Trubbel #638 Well Said!
I know a bit about Bob McMullan – he is really articulate and good value – and very genuine re: ALP values. He is effective and respected, like Duncan Kerr, within the Party…I would suggest that he would be good..he is good with AusAID stuff etc
Observer @ 438
That ABC poll permits multiple voting – just did. Obviously been subverted by the party faithful.
Bowman is in the Eastern Suburbs. Ryan in the Western Suburbs, Dixon north western suburbs. He was in Bowman.
I’ve always liked Bob McMullan: he’d be a fine foreign minister, definitely an improvement on the current incompetant/incumbant.
No one asked any questions about Pakistan at all. Very big oversight imho. Pakistan will be (Sky talking about it right now in the debate aftermath, Pakistan has nuclear weapons too) THE foreign policy issue of the first 6 months of the new government.
Pancho
You’re right. McClelland had a lot of material to work with and came across primarily as complacent and lacking any passion for the issues. He let Downer sail through, to the point where his vaulting, born to rule arrogance and sense of entitlement was on full display – up close he really is an unpleasant personality, bitchy, petty, nasty.
There’s gotta be more talent in the Labor party than McCelland..
You could replace Dee-Ann Kelly with a cane toad and the parliament would be improved.
Labor is in to 1.31 from 1.35 on Centrebet. What price did you get em Glen?
McMullan is a tough, experienced parliamentary performer and they might want him as Leader of the House.
Did Dolly’s dad get around a bit? Are Dolly, Pyne and Dutton related?
81
Adam Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
Swing Lowe, who’s your nomination for the most attractive man in any Parliament in Australia?
Bill Shorten in a canter (even though he’s not in Parliament yet)
Just look at his attributes
Educated at Xavier–appeals to catholics and better class people.
Married to charming lady of Lib background –appeals to “Doctor’s-wife”s
National hero—excavated the miners in Tasmania
Union leader–but really quite moderate, don’t-’cha-Know, m’dear.
Personable–quite as nice as dear Sir Robert.
As to his sex appeal, I’ll have to leave that to others better qualified to judge. We don’t talk about that in our circles.
BTW, please take that as well intentioned satire. I wish I lived in Moonee Ponds, and could vote for Mr Shorten..I hope he gets on Labor’s front bench very soon.
638 Trubble
Generally I’d agree with you but I’m making an exception in this case. Overington decided to play with fire and rightly got burnt. Now she’s trying to gloss over it and the hypocrisy of her written opinions on Garrett. She deserves everything she gets.
Yes it was Bowman … read on … (from Crikey)
Day 32 – 12:00 Brisbane
Location: Cleveland State High School
Electorate: Bowman
Event: 15/11 – Rudd plays some sweet music
Story Kevin Rudd has visited Cleveland State High School to sell his $1 billion for providing computer access to every secondary school student in Australia. Mr Rudd used a graphic design program and also composed some music using the computers at the school. Rudd said these were examples of how computers could be used across all subject areas.
“Computers are not simply a key subject to learn, they are key to learning every subject,” said Rudd.
Glen, Downer our best FM??? ROTFL You must try harder than that or we’ll think you have given up. As a previous poster pointed out, Downer even took credit for the CTBT negotiated in 1993, before he tool office. He forgot to mention AWB and a few other stains on our reputation. Put it this way, if Downer is such a great FM, why doesn’t he apply for one of those plum UN posts after the election? Surely he’ll get one on the strength of his personality, after 11 years in teh job to build his reputation, and with his French skills? The great Lord Downer, UN Secretary General. Mon dieu!
Face it Glen, outside of being a Howard lackey, he’s unemployable
Bob McMullan’s very bright and competent, lacks of a bit of polish and presence but would do a good job as Foreign minister.
My mother, working in a restaurant, met him once and said that he was one of the nicest people she’d ever met…totally unpretentious, personable, unassuming…sort of like an Anti downer.
Shorten also has an M.B.A.
I think Shorten will be the next Prime Minister after Rudd.
I wonder what odds I’d get for that prediction?
2:30pm Education debate in melbourne, hosted on Sky News.
Former Major Mike Kelly could be the pea for the job.
he has the background, qualifications and the nous.
Well he could become Condalezza Rice’s Personal Assistant
Socrates that’s a bit unfair:
‘outside of being a Howard lackey, he’s unemployable’
I hear he’s jockeying for a SA state seat.
I wonder if Geoff Lambert would be able to give us, if it’s not too much work, his 99 per cent confidence limits – i.e. what would be expected to happen in 99 out of a 100 elections under these conditions.
I understand that 95 per cent is the convention among professionals. On the other hand, I have seen quite a few horses win at 20:1, but very few at 100:1.
Knowing a 99 per cent confidence limit might allow us Nervous Nellies to get some work done.
I suppose the downside is that it could be demoralising for Coalition Members and supporters!
Typical of the Oz and information!
Caroline couldn’t give me an answer on the weather down south.
Gee, is she grooming herself for a political roll in the rebuilding of a decimated party?
It’s bloody hard to be apolitical when there is a swarm of cockroaches raiding the larder.
Bill Shorten will be immediately on that Labor front bench after the election, as will Combet, and Maxine(if she slays the Rodent in Bennelong).
And Bob Debus too, my tip for AG.
670 – I really like the look of Mike Kelly. Unimpeachable cv – Dr, law degree, colonel, highly intelligent, socially and ethically aware. How is he factionally aligned, and if not at all, which way would he lean?
Re 666,
Socrates Says:
Agreed Glen
…….. Dame Edna could do a better job than Dolly 
I thought Dame Edna and Dolly were the same person, one wears stockings, the other one dresses.
Re 668,
ShowsOn Says:
No idea, but if you get on it NOW, I would suspect pretty good ones
McClelland v Downer is more for the commentariat not the proletariat who think that our FM is Condelezza Rice (may as well be – and look at the money we’d save by completely scraping that ministry).
Rudd and everyone else won’t take too muh notice and I reckon it will barely get 7 sec’s on the Bogan News Networks!!
Bob McMullan will be the next Speaker.
God – to think we now have to sit through the Bishop v Smith debate now.
Why couldn’t they have put all the debates on the same day so we could get them over with in one shot?
According to my wife, Bill Shorten looks like an oompa loompa from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (the original with Gene Wilder)
ShowsOn do you even know why Alexander did that?
He did it for charity but you think you’re so high and mighty to viciously attack him on something he did for charity have you no shame sir?
Before you get into this born to rule bull butter about Downer, might i remind you that McCelland took his father’s seat!
Pancho
Sorry, I should have said “unemployable outside of Liberal politics or situation comedy”.
Still, if Labor win, he retires, and Macquarie Bank offer him a high paid job as a corporate financier, I will humbly apologise for my complete misjudgemant.
everyone is forgetting the Anhillator is picking his own frontbench.
code there are various people who will win seats who will be Ministers.
Mike Kelly wil be one. There will be plenty of others
All I could think of when Downer was talking is the ‘Freaky’ song from Keating.
Howards new health announcement – Private/Public partnership for cardiac care registry (for national database of information), more heart care specialists in the far north of QLD so people way up in Townsville (for example) don’t have to truck all the way to Brisbane to get treatment for heart conditions.
Because he’s a f’ing idiot.
I think for once I have to agree with Glen, the rampant homophobia on this site is pathetic.
The Liberals have plenty to be condemned for without resorting to snide homopobia.!!!!
It will never happen, Howard won’t be there to see it happen.
686,
Given Kelly’s background, why not make him Defense Minister?
Over on Possum’s branch there is a comment that letters from the banks are arriving.
Whilst I think it depends partly on how he performs in Parliament, I agree – Shorten will be next. I think – mind, based only on impressions from the Beaconsfield thing – that Shorten will actually be *better* than Rudd.
Assuming all goes well, it’ll be interesting in 6-10 years to see how well Rudd handles the succession thing, whether he’ll take a leaf out of the books of Bracks and Beattie..
690 [I think for once I have to agree with Glen,}
sockpuppet, thought you were Glen.
Perfect timing.
Or given his background – Attorney General.
He will possibly start in a junior ministry e.g. justice & customs.
Re 693,
Observer Says:
The first question on polling this last week and a half should be “have you received a letter from your bank? …… “
perhaps McClelland is more of a tradesman than salesman? maybe he needs an interpreter / spokesman? keep in mind he’s probably got the spud breathing down his neck from the day he articulated labor policy on capital punishment.
red wombat 662 i don’t think they’re related but they probably went to pony club together.
Ok ShowsOn so you think doing something for charity makes you an f-ing idiot, you really down degrade this poll with your nonsensical posts. Leave Downer alone, you can question his policy or beliefs but to attack him on what he did for charity is a disgrace, you should be above this.
Interestingly we heard nothing from Labor on FTA’s at all, McClelland just stuck to Iraq and Afghanistan and Kyoto the whole time. How on earth are these people ready to govern when their foreign policy agenda can be summed up in one sentence!
http://www.phoenix.org.uk/images/event_pics/willy%20wonka%20p26.jpg
http://www.awu.net.au/national/about/images/billshorten_200.jpg
681-I think thats a very good call re the Speaker
The Greens will replace the Democrats in relation to the balance of power in the Senate.
MUAHAHAHAHAHA… ahem.
I feel sorry for the poor pony
Ahh Liberals verballing … what a take. This is where I whip on deck, donk you on the head, plunge a knife into your spine, rip out your thorat and toss your guts overboard for berly.
No one gives a stuff who’s gay, except Liberals and some radio announcers. But it’s funny watching them hide it.
Your’re a dill.
699 Glen
Can I guess the scentence?
“anything’s better than what we’ve got.”
did I win?
Shorten has to be in the box seat to be the next leader. He is young now, but will get some ministerial experience under Rudd. He is from the right which is basically a pre-requisite, and he is 6 or 7 years younger than Gillard
If Rudd wins next week, I think he will contest another 2 elections after that, but not a third.
Politics has changed, leaders are under so much constant pressure from the media and the opposition that they just eventually get worn down.
Howard believed his own hype, and didn’t realise it was time to move on for the good of his party and the government.
699 [How on earth are these people ready to govern when their foreign policy agenda can be summed up in one sentence!]
Sounds like the Nuclear power staions policy of the liberals that can be summed up in two words, Bribie Island. Still think Brough will win Longman Glen?
Rudd assails ‘reckless’ PM:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-assails-reckless-pm/2007/11/14/1194766771495.html
Mr Rudd said that Mr Howard had become “stuck in the past” and simply failed to understand the new challenges of the future. “Mr Howard has no plans for the future because he’s not going to be there,” Mr Rudd said.
Visiting Dawson, They must be confident, where next? Kennedy and Big Hat Bob Katter!
Why would they waste McMullan at Speaker?
It’s probably better just to ignore Caroline Overington. All of her recent articles have been nothing other than attempts at attention-seeking. She is deliberately going out of her way to try to wind up Labor voters, which is why she isn’t even bothering to make any rational or reasoned arguments, just a heap of empty statements designed to provoke outrage.
It’s all about money for Murdoch and a profile for herself. Every time people flock to read her next outrageous stunt and start furiously blogging, the hits on that page sky-rocket, which means extra advertising revenue. And as for her profile, well, she doesn’t deserve to have attention, even if it is negative, especially after the stunt she tried to pull to get some extra votes swaying towards Turnbull in Wentworth. Sure, she made some good contributions over the AWB scandal, but has had nothing to offer since. A political analyst, she is most definitely NOT.
When I see an article by Overington now, I just skip straight past it. Besides, I already know what she will have written anyway.
You have serious problems with both writing and reading comprehension.
I never wrote he was a ‘f’ing indiot FOR supporting a charity’, I just commented that he is an ‘f’ing idiot’ which to most people is general knowledge.
I can say whatever I like about Alexander Downer. Why is it that Liberal hacks like yourself are always trying to tell other people what they should say and do? You should consider pissing off to Burma.
Howard is trying to square up George Pell’s support.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22763479-5005361,00.html
It won’t happen, he doesn’t have any factional support.
It SHOULD be Harry Jenkins Jr. But a few months ago I read an article that the Right are trying to get both Speaker of the House and President of the Senate.
No, McMullan will not be speaker. It will be someone like Roger Price or Arch Bevis.
i agree mcmullan mr speaker would be a waste
But they have so much COLOUR, you are missing out on COLOUR!
Notes from a swinging voter:
At this election I will switch my vote from Liberal to ALP. The last time I voted for the ALP was 1990. I made this decision round the middle of last year. Probably the treatment of David Hicks as a political pawn was the last straw.
From a former liberal voter’s perspective the three key mistakes that Howard made are:
Work choices: Howard could have simply passed the same legislation that was blocked by the senate prior to 2004. Instead he went further and effectively tried to strangle the union movement (and its political arm the ALP). For most people, WC makes no difference or may even bring benefits but it is the most vulnerable in society that have been put at risk..
Why did he do it? I think the blogger who used the story of the frog and the scorpion summed it up best. Ironically the “abolish work choices” stance of Rudd is very similar to the position Howard tried to get to prior to 2004. So the coalition has achieved the industrial law reforms it wanted but in way that it has put itself out of office in an incumbent friendly economic environment.
Koyto: This one still surprises me – how did Howard’s expedient nature not see the cost of being a climate change skeptic? By not ratifying Koyto Howard sent a clear signal to all green voters that he must be removed from power. The Greens having the balance in the senate is not enough. This has enabled the ALP to have a high primary vote despite a weak show on the environment and a lurch to the right.
No hand over I think as late June this year, the coalition still had a chance if a handover to Costello was effected. It never happened and now the mid-term handover is a negative.
Over the course of the year I’ve been impressed with Rudd and have gone from simply wanting the coalition gone – to thinking “this guy is going to make a great prime minister”.
I suspect in a couple of terms I will be tired of Kevin’s clever politics – it’s the nature of things that parties in power drift from governing for a reason to governing to stay in power. In the meantime the Liberal party needs to spend sometime in the wilderness and understand just how self serving and destructive they have become.
Steve while i would not dare to predict the exact outcome for Longman, i believe Brough has a great chance to hold his seat, and while his margin may well be reduced it could still be a considerable margin like 4%+.
Steve what have nuclear power plants ever done to you?
Question Steve, are you serious about climate change?
If you are why won’t u consider all options including nuclear?
It’s like saying you want to fix something but one solution is discarded because you’re against it for whatever reason, its nonsensical in my opinion.
Nuclear is an option, its not the silver bullet but i think we should seriously consider it.
Bob McMullan is almost 60. He is very competent but too old for “New Leadership” he has been on the speakers panel.
Thta is my “logic” for him being Speaker.
Update on Burkegate – according to the ABC’s Midday Report (localised version cos of Time delay)- Shelly archer has resigned from the ALP.
Anthony Fels is still refusing to.
Howard would be VERY foolish to run any ads linking Kevin Reynolds ads now.
Yeah Steve. Until your dying from radiation poisoning the Libs don’t want to hear from you.
“Howard believed his own hype, and didn’t realise it was time to move on for the good of his party and the government.”
I actually believe that Howard would not have been able to move on even if he knew that it was for the good of the party, the government, and the country. Howard is obsessed with power. He can’t let it go. It defines him. When he says that he wants to be PM again, he really does mean it.
The right won’t get anything unless is also happens to be what Rudd wants (so a coincidence). He has already laid down the law that he and he alone will decide who does what and goes where.
Hello
Interesting comments here but take issue with Glen who says Alexander Downer, a fine and fully-flushed man, has done an act for charity? I ask, Glen, what was this act and was it in public? Or was it a private do?
Do you have a link to the video? I do hasten to add that in no way I am salubrious.
Well may we say God save the Queen,
because nothing will save the Fairfax press when we are returned!
Nooncat
I don’t get the idea that Overington is writing those pieces on purpose – yes they want attention over at the OZ but a lot of their opinion pieces are as poor as Overington’s. She has a reputation to protect and I don’t think she’d be that keen to trash it – which is what she’s doing.
A friend opined to me that he thought the AWB book was about boosting her profile and reputation and that a lot of the hard research yards were done by researchers at the OZ…This makes sense to me in light of her ditzy light way contributions to political commentary….
BTW, having just visited her over at the GG, thought this was worth a laugh. Overington’s incisive analysis of the state of play of the election in response to a blogger saying the election ‘wasn’t over yet”: Caroline says:
“I would agree with you. I have a sister in Brisbane. I visited her this week. She had just returned from one of her kooky trips around caravan parks in a Kombi painted with a whale being harpooned (her teenage daughter will travel in it, but only under a blanket) and she said she could not find a Labor voter anywhere.”
There you go, why bother with Possum when you’ve Caroline’s cutting edge analysis…
“But they have so much COLOUR, you are missing out on COLOUR!”
Haha. That is true. Even so, thanks but no thanks. I’ll stick to greyscale for now.
Overington tried to argue in her blog that yesterday Labor look like they’ve already won because Hawke, Keating and Whitlam were there.
I pointed out that the three former Labor P.M.s were also at the 2004, 2001, and 1998 campaign launches, and that this “changes the colour of her commentary”. To which Overington replied:
“It’s the vibe, as they might say in The Castle.”
Thus there seems to be a new burden of proof for opinion pieces at The Australian – evidence and logical reasoning aren’t necessary anymore, what is required is referring to “vibes”.
718 [Nuclear is an option, its not the silver bullet but i think we should seriously consider it.]
Glen, that’s part of the reason that your side of politics is about to be serving 15 years in the political wilderness. If you consider it for fifteen years,I’m sure other solutions will have become obvious to even you by then but good luck. The political wilderness will be good for you and will mature you no end.
Tabs, you’re borrowing from Gough now? That launch must really have gotten to you!
Kevin 2.0 paints PM as past it
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22760464-5012863,00.html
“Mr Howard just doesn’t get it. Around the rest of the world, providing young people with computers isn’t exotic, it’s mainstream.”
He said the Government had “run out ideas”. “It has run out of energy. And it has run out of time,” he declared.
I have a question that relates to the caretaker position post-election until the writs have been returned and parliament is recalled. If Labor wins does the Coalition stay in the caretaker position, or does Labor get to assume the role? The reason is it will relate to the environment talks in early December and whether Labor will be able to ratify Kyoto in time for the talks. If Labor is a clear winner but the Coalition stays in caretaker mode, can Labor force the caretaker government to do anything?
I hope we don’t get a double-dissolution election, I am over elections for another 3 years.
“594
Pancho Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
McClelland just got the news grab: ‘I can’t speak Mandarin, but I’ve certainly eaten one or two.’”
Eddixinder Diner: ” Well I mean to say, look honestly, if you elect these people the first thing they’ll resort to is cannibalism!”
True, but Rudd is from the right (though he doesn’t attend any faction meetings anymore), so you can imagine he will be somewhat sympathetic to their wants.
I still hope Tony Windsor becomes the speaker. Once one of the major parties sets the precedent that the speaker should be an independent, or from a minor party it would be hard to go back to the way it was.
But on the other hand, the deplorable speakers we have had gives Labor the right to get back at the Liberals by installing someone who is as biased as Hawker or Stinkers.
”Or how does rax cuts for all (but the rich getting a much smaller share) sound?” [326]
The rich should not get any new tax cuts. They already got a lot of tax cuts during the last 3 years. A labor Government can do so many good things with more money. For example, ensuring that the desalination plant in Victoria becomes government-owned.
Tabitha (724) says:
“Well may we say God save the Queen,
because nothing will save the Fairfax press when we are returned!”
It looks like the Fairfax press might have something to worry about in a decade or two.
729 [Tabs, you’re borrowing from Gough now? That launch must really have gotten to you!]
By next week she will be a turncoat and voting Labor just to prove to herself that she is a swinging voter.
It won’t be difficult to defeat Rudd subsequently should he win, after all he stands for nothing, has no concrete policies and is full of slogans, eventually people like that trip and fall and Turnbull or Costello will be there to make him pay.
But that is in the worse case scenario a Liberal defeat, but as this is not a foregone conclusion despite what the ALP would like you to believe, the Tories can still win. Arrogance is a painful game if you get it wrong Steve.
The normal natural life of a government is a little over 10 years anyway so i doubt Rudd and Labor will last that long if they win. Don’t see how you get 15 years, maybe in your dreams.
Glen,
I’d happily take 10 years of a Labor government any day…
Don’t know if this has been posted, but front page of the GG:
Auditor Slams Coalition Regional Grants Use – Cites Pork Barrelling.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22763338-601,00.html
730 Will
http://www.australianpolitics.com/executive/conventions/
Glen
What is Rudd thrives…then there is a hand over to Gillard or someone else? If we have 4 year terms then 15 years is possible….I think Gillard would be a great PM, the first woman and it would be nice to have a true social democrat working in a centre/left environment – a nice change. Of course, her values do not suit yours but I think they do suit alot of australian’s
Glen, as Geoff Lambert says, a coalition comeback would be ‘biblical’ in nature if it were to happen. Obviously you’ve a man with religious convictions.
“…we need to end a lot of environmentally unsound practices in this country … as well as ending coal.”
You really haven’t given it a lot of thought have you Thaddeus…
While I would agree there are a lot of things wrong with how we do things in Australia voting informal is not sending any sort of message to change it. Its just saying “I don’t care” to political analysts which is the opposite of what you proclaim.
In the Federal system we have a Governor-General to dismiss illegal Labor Governments.
In the Western Australian system the police force arrest members of illegal Labor Governments.
“She has a reputation to protect and I don’t think she’d be that keen to trash it – which is what she’s doing.”
Sean, on some level, I am actually giving Caroline the benefit of the doubt, that is, that she really isn’t an airhead and incapable of providing reasoned analysis. I am suggesting that she has an ulterior motive. How else can you explain that she is trashing her reputation other than trying to get attention?
Unless of course, she really has lost the plot…or never had it to begin with.
And the Ecuyer how to vote card is available on Crikey!
Yes, Glen but I am saving you from getting too arrogant. Never a good look in a young person even claiming the Libs can win at all is ‘hubris’ in my book.
Well look at New South Wales, what has 10 years of the ALP got you there?
Bad hospitals
Bad schools funding
Bad public transport
More debt
Well if that’s the guide i say bring on the Tories because if 10 years of Labor gets you that what will 10 years of Rudd and Swan get us sweet f a?
The current government is losing because they don’t stand for anything, all they have is slogans like:
“Go For Growth”
“70% union bosses”
“Union Controlled”
“I’m a f’ing idiot” – Alexander Downer
That’s all they have left now.
Glen,
Hate to point this out to you, but NSW is considered to have the best education system in the country (or at least the best curriculum).
There’s also the fact that NSW has a AAA credit rating as well…
Well Howard’s Ad on Kevin Reynolds is now redundant.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22763498-5005361,00.html
Steve that is a joke to say you’ve got this election as a lock is hubris to say your side can still win the election is not arrogance, we must be on the wrong page.
I am not being arrogance i’ve admitted that the tories face an uphill task and it may be out of our reach but we’ve always got a chance.
Re 744,
“quintus Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
And the Ecuyer how to vote card is available on Crikey!”
Can you share it with us? I don’t have free access to Crikey any more and at any rate, if you posted here, then we could all see it quickly rather than having to reload another page and go to find it ourselves (if it is on the free readings)
“Well if that’s the guide i say bring on the Tories because if 10 years of Labor gets you that what will 10 years of Rudd and Swan get us sweet f a?”
Glen, this is all just hypothetical. If you are unsure what Rudd stands for, then how can you predict the policy-direction of his government? You are contradicting yourself.
I suggest you vote Labor. If we get a Rudd government, then you can see what ACTUALLY happens rather than playing around in a mini-maze of hypotheticals.
Quintus, is it a split preference?
Julie Bishop Vs Stephen Smith are debating on Education at Melb Uni via Skynews his moment.
Exactly the same thing was said by the Libs about Bracks after Kennett was defeated.
Split prefs, with a Labor bias message at the bottom: http://votedani.com/wp-content/uploads/d_ecuyer_how_to_vote.pdf
BrissyRod
I’m going for a conservative 58/42 and it will all be over by 7.30pm
Julie @ 751,
It’s a split preference between Turnbull and Newhouse.
In the upper house, she is saying to vote for the Greens – they’re also her number 2 preference in the lower house.
Glen @ 736… wishful thinking is all that remains to you now. There is so little that can actually be done to affect the outcome. There is no time. Now you have to hope that the polls are wrong and that if they’re not, that Labor will make a hash of things. But you should ask a few hard questions: Why has the coalition allowed its political fortunes to be held hostage by the ambitions of one man? Why have they been so inept, even negligent? Why have people flocked by their tens of thousands to Labor?
Your team has consistently over-rated their abilities, under-rated Rudd and under-rated the electorate. Now that is hubris for you.
750 [I am not being arrogance i’ve admitted that the tories face an uphill task and it may be out of our reach but we’ve always got a chance.]
You mean like a chance that a snowflake has in hell, Glen? Somewhere between Buckley’s and none? Beats me how someone can look at polls till blue in the face and learn nothing, wierd stuff indeed. A triumph of blind faith over mathematics is it?
Albert F, you are spot on. All this talk of your team v my team amounts to nothing. They all come and go with the passing of the years. Its because they are all human and all fallible. But thankfully we still have people willing to put themselves through the scrutiny of being a politician.
blindoptimist perhaps the best commentary shall come after this election has been decided on the 25th, your assertions would seem redundant should the tories be returned.
9 days is all we’ve got left then one can lecture the other side about why they think a side won or why they think a side lost. Election’s aren’t over till the fat lady sings blindoptimist and she’s not singing yet, let’s wait for the first polls after the launches.
Well if you believe that Moses parted the red sea, you might just believe that the rodent can pull off the election…
JB said “Australia’s education system is good but could be world class”. Potential field day for Labor of this quote. Love her smile though.
Ecuyer’s preferences:
1 – Ecuyer
2 – Greens
3 – Democrats
4 – Climate Change
5 – Newhouse
6 – Turnbull
etc
‘Election’s aren’t over till the fat lady sings blindoptimist and she’s not singing yet,’
I dunno Glen, if she aint singing, I can certainly hear the band’s intro, and her voice is certainly well warmed. Although I think she’s closer to the first chorus myself…
“I am not being arrogance i’ve admitted that the tories face an uphill task and it may be out of our reach but we’ve always got a chance.”
You are right Glen, nothing is certain. Records have been broken before. You just never can be completely sure.
But on what basis do you believe that they have a chance? Do you think the union-bashing is starting or resonate? Do you think Howard has started lifting his game now? Do you think another “Tampa” is on its way next week? I’d be interested to know what exactly gives you cause for hope. Or is it just the “you never know, crazier things have happened before” factor?
Ecuyer’s preferences
and on the back….. Turnbull and Newhouse reversed
If Labor wins will they supply uranium to India?
steve @ 759.
It’s more “Thomas the Tank Engine” poll analysis. It starts of with Glen, “I think we can win, I think we can win”. Then someone like Steven kaye joins in and says, “We should win, We should win”. And then Generic Person and Thommo work themselves into a fenzy, with “I know we can, I know we can”.
They don’t understand that Thomas is an imaginary cartoon character.
Joe Hockey might be the Fat Controller though.
‘Election’s aren’t over till the fat lady sings blindoptimist and she’s not singing yet,’…………..enter the hall and you might hear her.
Sean @726
It’s an old trick, Sean. Get the guts on a story – generally done by the backroom boys and girls – and bang it out under a convenient byline, in this case, Ms Overington.
Glen
If you’re a young man, you’ll probably be middle aged before you see another coalition government. If you’re middle aged now you’ll probably be elderly by then. And if you’re already elderly…..well, you’ve got some nice memories to look back on.
I wonder if Labor wins the election, there will be another inquiry into the AWB scandal.
this doesn’t look good for Howard…
For the first time since APEC Conference (and then the leadership crisis), LassetersSports slashes Labor’s odds to sub 1.3:
Labor/Coalition: 1.27 / 3.75
Best offer for Labor currently is at RacingOdds: $1.36
Best offer of Coalition currently are at BetFair and LassetersSport: $3.75
On Nuc power stations I have heard in the media that there is not enough uranium deposits to sustain the Nuc Plants we have now beyound 50 years. I have know way of knowing if that is the case, I doubt anybody does, but I would keen to hear if any one hear knows much about it. I do know that the price of uranium has doubled in the last 2 years of course that could just be due to all base metal iron ore and petrol prices going up in accord with our “2 to 3 percent inflation world HA HA”.
See my post re Kevin Reynolds and his wife resigning from the ALP. Compare it to Anthony Fels and the Libs.
766 Noocat –
You forgot “we’re praying harder than the other guys”…..
673 I wonder if Geoff Lambert would be able to give us, if it’s not too much work, his 99 per cent confidence limits – i.e. what would be expected to happen in 99 out of a 100 elections under these conditions.
About 54.4-56.6%, not really much wider (the ratio of error width is based on Student’s t-test critical values for P = 0.05 and P = 0.01 (1.96 versus 2.64)
If things go “non-normal” all bets are out the window though., whether 20:1 or 100:1
There’s always time until it runs out. Many parties follow their leader up alleys. Voters flock at every election. Etc. For a really insightful piece on electioneering read Michael Gawenda’s recent piece in SMH.
Bob Katter for the speaker I reckon.
I could just picture him with a bull-whip snapping it above both sides heads to attain order.
Maybe some real business would get done and it would sure rate at the ABC.
Noocat, we’ll see but i think Howard’s policies announced on Monday could close the gap in the polls to say 52-48. This is striking distance territory for the tories, granted if the polls blow out from 55-45 to 58-42 from the launches well then the fat lady will be warming up then for sure.
The next polls will be very interesting, following the events of this week.
Swing Lowe (748) It was very clever (cunning?) of you to choose an area of administration (education) where it might be said that Morrie & Co. have some semblance of ‘competence’.
Tony Windsor would be my pick for speaker, with or without a hung parliament. Let’s get some even handedness back into the place.
which party is Xenephon closest to idealogically?
So Derek, you obviously subscribe to the idea that much of the AWB book was ghost written for Overington?
David Charles,
Just telling it as it is (from the perspective of a relatively recent beneficiary of the NSW education system)…
If you were going for an independent, Andren probably would have been better but oh well
.
K Jin,
The Pro Nuclear Lobby are counting on improvements in technology to allow them to use Uranium for longer periods, etc. They have great faith in the science of Nuclear Technology but none in the science of Solar Technology. Apparently according to them only Nuclear Technology can be improved.
Why would Tony Windsor want to be speaker?
Bloody good point. SS said we can no longer compare the education standard between States. We have to compare with other Countries.
Opening point to SS. His opening was so much better than JB. It was positive and detailed while JB was rather negative.
Agree with that Glen (785).
778 [Bob Katter for the speaker I reckon]
If you thought Abbott was bad turning up half an hour late, this bloke will turn up days late for a meeting. It will never happen Labor knows him too well.
Edward St John in making his partisan claims about Labor’s public service culture, has obviously forgotten that John Howard has massively increased the size of the public services over the previous federal government. Canberra’s population grew from 250,000 – 320,000 during the period 1996 – 2002.
Isabella denigrates those business types who don’t vote Liberal as being lazy and a tax on society. This is the comment of a moron.
Honestly people! Argue reality, not party propaganda. Don’t write cheques that your own Party’s butt can’t cash.
Middle man,
thanks, I’ve read this blog a lot more than I have posted. I felt the swinging voter was being painted as igronant, selfish and easily led. No doubt there are some voters like that – but there also a lot of people who are changing their vote for very carefully thought out reasons.
The fact the polls have tended to produce the same 55/45 result for quite a while suggests (to me at least) that many swinging voters are looking long term.
The FM debate was rather tedious, as you’ve all noted, but made so much more entertaining by Downer’s hissy prissy tone! Macca acquitted himself solidly (if not a bit too stolidly), but he didn’t put a foot wrong.
It was, as Hugh White pointed out, designed to be a draw, but for those of us who’ve felt totally conned into Bush’s balmy invasion, Macca hit the spot.
The very best bit however was Speers talking beforehand, and Hugh White was essentially saying that the more savvy overseas governments would have already concluded that a change of government is much better than even money.
Speers seemed to agree without even flinching.
Ladies and gentlement, the rodent is dead!
Audit exposes Coalition pork-barrel
A Federal Auditor-General report into funding of the controversial regional partnerships program suggests the Howard Government has favoured Coalition-held electorates.
A performance audit released today shows Federal Government ministers were more likely to approve funding for projects not recommended by their department because applications came from Liberal and Nationals electorates.
The audit found that in the year to June 30, 2006, 77 per cent of funding from the program went to rural electorates.
“An ANAO (Australian National Audit Office) analysis revealed that ministers were more likely to approve funding for ‘not recommended’ projects that had been submitted by applicants in electorates held by the Liberal and National parties,” the audit report said.
“And (ministers were) more likely to not approve funding for ‘recommended’ projects that had been submitted by applicants in electorates held by the Labor party.”
Comment was being sought from Nationals leader Mark Vaile.
AAP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/audit-exposes-coalition-porkbarrel/2007/11/15/1194766833352.html
This education debate is of a much higher standard than Downer and McClelland earlier on.
Also, DC (and Glen if you still care),
The NSW Labor government has been responsible for building the following pieces of infrastructure in Sydney alone:
Eastern Distributor
M7 Westlink
M5 East
Lane Cove Tunnel
Cross City Tunnel
Sydney Light Rail
Epping – Chatswood Rail Link
Airport Rail Link
Olympic Park Rail Link
plus the widening of both the M4 and M5….
761
Glen Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
“blindoptimist perhaps the best commentary shall come after this election has been decided on the 25th, your assertions would seem redundant should the tories be returned.”
…
Like I said, wishful thinking is a comfort (especially when the odds are against you.) But I think your mob should get deep and meaningful, do some navel-gazing, question their working assumptions about the world, try to drop the smart-arse acts… generally try to overhaul themselves. It’s never too soon to start.
Xenophon has me a bit bamboozled. I think he is a bit of a political harlot, actually (to borrow from Paul Keating). He tends to agitate against the interests of the incumbent government so he appears to be ‘even-handed’. However, looking at they way he generally votes, I would say he is left of centre, but not much. Certainly he is left on social issues, but more conservative on economic issues.
Hey Frank, do you know a site that has all of the betting odds up for comparison?
668
ShowsOn Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
“Shorten also has an M.B.A.
I think Shorten will be the next Prime Minister after Rudd.
I wonder what odds I’d get for that prediction?”
Gee , Showson, look at the field.. Gillard, Wong ,Shorten, Combet maybe Mike Kelly????..others I haven’t thought of. We’re really spoilt for choice.
longer odds on Swann. Garrett, Mclelland, Cornes, name you own price.
713, 714
I believe Mr Price covets the job. In the past, the Right usually got the Speaker position, so the odds are on Roger the Dodger.
Though Harry Jenkins has been seen for a while as the Speaker in waiting. I guess we’ll wait and see. Maybe Kevin will demand his choice here as well.
Anyone heard a rumor that Howard might step now over the weekend???
Swing Lowe how much of that was paid for with GST money, a Howie initiative?
“Noocat, we’ll see but i think Howard’s policies announced on Monday could close the gap in the polls to say 52-48.”
I would be lying if I didn’t feel a little apprehensive about the next wave of polls. There are a couple of things that will be tested with these polls:
1) are people paying attention to politics now?
2) is the anti-union advertising starting to bite?
3) does going for the moral high ground on economic management trump pork-barrelling? Rudd has gone for the former; Howard for the latter. Is it true that the majority of people just vote for whoever gives them the most money or are there still plenty of people looking towards a bigger picture?
You can’t separate these out by looking at aggregated voting intentions, but if there is a move towards Labor, then it is likely that 1 = yes; 2 = no; and 3 = yes. And if there is no change in the polls, then the government is toast anyway.
Glen:
Why bother sticking up for Howard.
Howard has single handedly destroyed the Liberal party.
If they lose this election, the Liberals will never recover and will become relegated to the dustbin of history, similar to the Democrats.
Why you ask?
Because, the main support for the Liberals comes from the over 60’s. The youth vote in general despite Howard for his policies. As time passes, there will be less of the over 60’s but the youngsters will still be there, teaching their kids about Howard.
Further, economic conservatism is the only thing Howard has left and he has just blown it all. If the ALP get back in, they will demolish the economic conservatism line of the Libs once and for all.
What do the Libs have then? Alex Hawke and self implosion.
795- blindopt
Nah mate they are a great party and everyone thikns so. I reckon they should not change a thing!
Ecuyer’s HTVC is good for Newhouse in another way – the part of the split ticket that favours him is on the left of Turnbull’s, and some of the 90% of voters who are right handed are likely to cover Turnbull’s part with their ballot papers when they vote.
Roll on the Glorious 24th!
despite = despise
No I don’t Ashley@797, sorry
Someone posted it here in PollBludger before, but I lost the bookmark
hay can someone tell me when they expect the newspoll cumulative state by state. It has been coming out weekly on Thursday but still no sign.
Looking for a continued swing to ALP in WA- started last week and i expect it will continue.
Crikey wanted to find out how a Stalinist, Satanist and a KKK member would vote next week. The Satanist is voting for Howard! So’s the Imperial Wizard of KKK, Crikey was surprised he’s not voting for Pauline. The Stalinist is for the Greens.
To those who are raving about Shortens MBA
Give me a break so does Bush !
776 Geoff, I read yr analysis of polls with interest. It’s plausible, I suppose, if you trust polling numbers. But for a reality check I go to mumble’s Fed Elect Since 1910 table. What’s striking there is the gradual disappearance of big 2pp numbers as we recede further from the distant past. I think of Whitlam 72 as the great watershed election. Before then, 2pp figures exceeding 55 were not uncommon (8 times), but since then they’re the exception (2 times). That tends to suggest a more modest prediction for labor of 52-53, even assuming the current “polls” trend holds up. A paradox connected to this seems to be that “modern” elections are more volatile (ie more frequent changes of govt) but the 2pp figures are slightly more concentrated in a 48-52 band. Encumbancy is more significant now, which explains the emphasis parties place on the marginals. I suspect the rusted-on percentages have diminished since ‘72.
Smith is acquiting himself really well. Good rhetoric, positive and forward looking philosophically. Much better than the Lateline performance. In contrast Bishop, who I thought was pretty good on LL is less clear today.
Geoff @ 787, your work is great. Thanks for making it available to humble bludgers such as this one. For interest, do you think the 2CP can widen over the next few days (in Labor’s favour). Or is the result more or less on cruise control?
Betting site
http://www.sportspunter.com/betting?function=tournamentodds&team=all&competitionid=59&tournament=Australian%20Federal%20Election
Why would a Satanist vote for Howard? Isn’t this all getting a bit childish?
818
Big Blind Dave Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
795- blindopt
Nah mate they are a great party and everyone thikns so. I reckon they should not change a thing!
….
lol
Coursework Masters are university cash cows these days, to make up for funding cuts over the last decade particularly. Anyone that has the time and 20k can get an MBA these days.
Glen,
The point I’m trying to make is not about where the money comes from (of course a lot would have come from the GST revenue via state grants), but where it goes. It’s called a ‘vision’ thing – NSW Labor had it, the Federal Coalition has never had it, but Rudd Labor does.
Maybe that’s the reason why Labor has been doing so well in the polls this year…
Given the fact that Howard has no interests in life except cricket, no life experiences except parliament, a wife who keeps egging him on (and obviously doesn’t want him hanging around the house) and a complete incapacity to retire with dignity he’ll no doubt be contesting the leadership of the opposition.
Why would the Satanist vote for Howard?
Perhaps because Howard has done him a few favours over the years?
736 Glen Says: November 15th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
haha… that’s great. Already aiming for the next election. Good tactic using the failed strategy of this one.
I’m not sure you’d be doing your political career any help by continually trying failed election strategies.
Asanque with respect i hope you weren’t advocating a virtual ‘one party state’?
If Howard does lose and the Libs do some soul searching it will take time because we are so far behind in most States and Territories but we will eventually get them one by one. This is because Labor can’t guarantee it will fix everything and they’ll be no buck passing and they’ll have to sit in the **** they’ve created.
The only way the Liberals will be finished is if this is a wipe out of biblical proportions and we then merge with the Nationals to form a new centre-right party, though i doubt this will occur.
Asanque the Democrats are or should i say were just a minor party, this is two party system and we’re the other party so i doubt unless Rudd advocates changing the voting system we’ll be finished.
Glen, purge the religous nutters from your party. They will/are making your party unelectable. You should have had Iemma for breakfast in March…..
790
Glen Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
“… we’ll see but i think Howard’s policies announced on Monday could close the gap in the polls to say 52-48…”
….
52/48 = whistling in the dark, or pi#$%g into the wind, Glen….
833
Sean Says
Great image !
Howard going after the Dollar Sweetie or The Prim Bishop in 2 years time that would be theatre worth the price of maxine not winning.
has this been discussed yet? dont have time to read all the previous blogs
Dani Ecuyer Preferences
November 15th, 2007
Dani Ecuyer is announcing that as a true independent, who is standing on a ‘Climate Change and anti pulp mill ticket”, will split preference. Ms Ecuyer says “that she was always standing to give the constituents of Wentworth a chance to make a concern or protest vote. Voters can send a strong message to the major parties that they want immediate positive policy action on Climate Change solutions and approving the pulp mill is not acceptable, to combat Climate Change.
Ms Ecuyer has preferenced the Greens, the Democrats and the Climate Change Coalition ahead of either the major parties. She is preferencing the Greens in the Senate.
However, Ms Ecuyer says “all voters to must seriously consider that only one party has agreed to ratify Kyoto, the Labor Party. It is imperative that Australia is at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Bali meeting in December. Voters who make the choice and want action on Climate Change should therefore preference Labor.”
Download my How to Vote
ND we lost that election because of our leader plain and simple, he was a deadbeat no offence to Peter but seriously Brogden would have slammed Iemma ah well.
Thankfully many of the religious ‘nutters’ aren’t in Parliament and many support FF but yes i don’t like em but you’ve got to live with them, just like Labor and the Unions.
Been a couple of mentions of Dawson earlier in the thread (649, 659), so thought I’d relate a couple of stories from within the seat itself.
1) De-Anne’s had a TV ad running, which lasts about 10 seconds. Starts with a shot of her introducing herself, flicks to about three different scenes, then finishes with a shot of her, then the Nationals logo.
Words are :- “Hi, I’m De-Anne Kelly. Australia’s best years lie ahead. Under a Coalition government” Then loud voiceover “Vote 1 De-Anne Kelly Putting the People of Dawson first”.
Impression:- She couldn’t have come up with a more patronising ad if she’d tried.
2) Was in a local shopping center one weekend (one just gone?). De-Anne had set up a booth outside Woolies. No, I didn’t go over and say anything (tempted as I was). However, on my way out, I came across a crowd of about four or five ladies, with kids, walking in. All in “Kevin07″ shirts. Couldn’t help myself, had to laugh. And again, no, I didn’t direct them to where De-Anne was (was well-behaved that day).
I’ve received, I think, one item in the mail from both De-Anne and the Labor candidate. Have seen more signs up for the Labor candidate, but as I’ve mainly been in the city of Mackay, that’s not surprising – have to go for a drive this weekend if I have time, to find the De-Anne signs. I did see the Labor candidate out front of the local racetrack on Melbourne Cup day, so that’s one sighting for each of them.
Oh, and there was another of De-Anne’s “Dawson Updates” in the local rag recently. Thought it a bit odd that she could put them out during the campaign. Standard glossy 4-page, but surprisingly, only 11 photos of herself.
Glen:
I’m not advocating it as its not good for democracy. However, thats the path the Liberals are heading down after following Howard.
There is a reason the Liberals have lost every state election, and its not because of the competency of the government.
There is no fresh young blood in the Liberals. The best you have is Alex Hawke in NSW, and after this election (if the Libs lose), there will be utter decimation.
Which state are the Libs likely to get?
The Nats will also be obsolete after this election, so that results in the decimation I referred to earlier.
No one said it would happen overnight, but the future is not looking bright for the Libs, and Howard is to blame. One can only imagine the number of years it will take to revive the Libs if they lose this one.
Swing Lowe (808) I am pleased to note that the NSW State Government have done something in the 12.5 years they have been in power. However, all of those matters were initiated when they had people of competence like Carr and Knowles. The good news for ALP barrackers is that their team will be there until at least March 2011. Kevin Rudd might wish there are four year terms in Federal politics. Indeed if that were so, it might make the bold predictions of a decade or more of ALP primacy in Federal politics a bit more plausible.
Great Debate VII: Julie Bishop vs Stephen Smith
Watch it with me: We’re offering video streaming of the debate, so you can watch Bishop v Smith live and rate their performances here.
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Is this Overington character just another dreary hack doing Rupe’s bidding or what?
Maybe they should just change their masthead at the GG to read: “The Fart of the Nation”, ‘coz that’s all it’s worth with tripe like this airhead pumps out. (Not to mention the excrement from Shammeister and Attila Albrechtsen).
After Rudd’s election, maybe the Oz could just become a satire rag, a tired old re-hasher of Liberal ‘glory days’ and puff pieces on Howard in retirement. It sure as hell is NOT about quality journalism.
Great to have you back, AM. Make yourself at home.
EXCELLENT
………
Asanque I guess it will take as long as it has taken for federal Labor to revive itself. A reminder as well it was only a year ago before Kevin Rudd hit the scene that the ALP was pretty much unelectable.
Sean @ 783
Certainly ghosts. Within News Ltd. Too many “sabbaticals” … think about it … P. Kelly disappears into the ether … to do something in America … Bolt is informed … Ms Overington was merely a cypher for AWB … a case of News Ltd flexing its muscle … so it goes.
Anyway.
Glen
“It won’t be difficult to defeat Rudd subsequently should he win, after all he stands for nothing”
..can’t recall Howard standing for much in ‘96 – other than not being Keating. Its the way oppositions get themselves elected. Any big statements paint a target for a negative campain.
The ALP has not used a lot of the negative material in this election. Negative campaining works best when you are the incumbent. Once the ALP are in power you can expect a not so subtle re-writing of the howard years. They have plenty of material for the next term and without all the trappings of office the coalition will struggle to defend themselves.
WB
I will use restraint today, and apoligise for yesterdays stupid comments.
Re 782,
NGK Says:
and David Hicks and Haneef and Children Overboard and …… but I will stop there. Mark my words, at least one current sitting Lib somewhere somehow will go to court over their failings and possibly jail. Hopefully, more than one. The moral blind eye that the Howard government has in a collective sense is inexcusable and must be punished.
Thommo:
Actually Thommo, these charts show that Howard has been on the nose, long berfore Rudd became opposition leader.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/category/aggregated-polls/
Thank you, AM.
787 – Geoff Lambert
Thanks, Geoff.
“If things go “non-normal” all bets are out the window though., whether 20:1 or 100:1″.
Fair enough.
But under existing conditions, without a bolt from the blue, I assume we can interpret this to mean there is only a 1 per cent chance that Labor can score less than about 54.4 per cent of 2PP (91 seats to the ALP on Antony Green’s calculator) – and only a 1 per cent chance the Coalition can get more than 45.6 per cent.
It’s quite astounding when you think about it that way.
If that doesn’t mean the Libs are rooted, I can’t think what does.
glen @ 841 – i’m pretty sick of all this drivel about unions being BAD. i don’t know what you think the working conditions of australians would be like now if it hadn’t been for unions fighting for occupational health and safety laws and workers’ compensation, as just a couple of examples. you’d be paid a pittance and made to work 80hr weeks. why don’t you think about things before you spout all that c^&p, glen? use your intellect.
802 Steve
Maybe Katter can be late…. he just has to leave that whip hanging for all to see.
Sometimes little children just need to see it to behave.
Interesting Media Release from the ABC re the new Kid’s Channel promised by Howard.
Swing Lowe @ #794
I have a couple of minor corrections to your list:
Construction of the Airport Rail Link commenced in 1992, under a coalition government.
The first stage of the Sydney Light Rail was also built by a coalition government. The Labor government extended it from the casino to Lilyfield, so it could be used by commuters.
You could also include Gore Hill Freeway on your list.
Regards
JB said the Election is about the contest between Left and Right. Excuse me? Are we still living in the 60s. No wonder the Coalition is f******. I take back what I said abut her smile. This debate, SS wins hands down.
Paul K, the pro-nukes realise that you can lease a great stretch of dirt with uranium under it, but you can’t own the sun.
I can’t see Rudd hanging in there any longer than two terms -three at the most- not because the ALP would lose a third (or fourth) election, but becase we would all be so sick of seeing and hearing the same old faces and voices. That is Howard’s major problem, in my view: we are all just so sick of that “err…” at the start of every sentence he utters. Media are so intense and pervasive now, t basically halves the shelf-life of the PM. The ALP will know this from its focus groups, and won’t make the same mistake as the Libs have. Rudd will pass the baton (cheerfully, I should imagine) to Julia Gillard -if the party judges the electorate is ready for her- or to Bill Shorten, who’ll have eight years’ ministerial experience by then.
Do any of you guys get the Monthly? There are two great articles in there, one by Robert Manne, the other by Michael Gawenda on some parallels between the Australian Labor Party and the US Democrats (and their current situation going forward). They’re worth a read if you can get a copy.
have heard a rumour that Gary Morgan (of poll fame) is quoted as saying Howard to win by 1 seat. I presume that this is based on some seat by seat polling as his latest published polls don’t indicate this.
Hey Glen,
Mate I think you should get a grip on yourself. You’re starting to sound as through you’re suffering Stockholm Syndrome. If you are going to vote Labor, I hope you do it because you want to.
Julie Bishop would make a great Liberal leader (I was wrong) She can say white is black, twist statistics, obfuscate and mislead.
Yep she has all the qualities her Team will be looking for.
863,
Would I find that at a newsagents? And what months issue is it? November or December? Thanks
A couple of earlier posts mentioned banks sending out letters about higher repayments I have not got one yet. But I did just get today the fees for my two oldest childrens school fees in the mail. The single year rate for one child has gone up 800 dollars, a 10% increase from last year, and it has been a 10 % increase each year for the last 3 years. So I can see how Howards 800 dollars would be attractive to some even though in my case and I would guess many others, it would just result in a 20% increase next year by the school.
Julie Says: “Would I find that at a newsagents? And what months issue is it? November or December? Thanks”
Hi Julie, I assumed you had a crystal ball
sorry.
It’s Nov 2007 issue and yes it should be at newsagents. I would send a link to the online version, but you need a paying online sub to view it.
George (863) I read The Monthly cover-to-cover, every issue. Unfortunately, it only takes me an hour or so, then I have another month to wait. Most newsagents in my area look blank when I ask for it and say: “The monthly what?”
Gawenda is good. Really good.
It’s the November issue Julie. Great shot of a grinning Kevo on the front. Newsagents hide it behind the Bulletin.
William, how bout a top ten of your personal favourite posters here. we know that AM is on the sh*t list.
867 -
Interesting how that letter from the school has come out this week…I wonder how many others are trying to influence voters.
Shanahan et al should learn to do what Gawenda does – write a second draft.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2092025.htm?section=justin
If the Libs were ever going to have a female Liberal Leader is has to be Bishop. But we all know what will happen if the tories are beaten. Deputy Dawg will take over fight out a DD election maybe close the gap slightly with Bishop as deputy leader then the knives will come out and Bishop will be leader to fight an election in 2011.
Julie Bishop would do a good job i reckon, only problem is she’s from WA, not since Hasluck has a sandgroper had a chance of being the leader of the Liberal Party.
A laptop led economy.
Makes a change from digging ourselves in deeper.
From jobs underground to seeing the light.
Lets see now, kids in Years 10 to 12 are aged on average respectively 15, 16, 17.
In three years time they will be aged 18 years and over.
Many will have commenced further education, academic or technical training, apprenticeships.
All this under the wisdom, leadership and munificence of Labor.
And each of these children have how many voting parents?
When is the election after this?
“Gee , Showson, look at the field.. Gillard, Wong ,Shorten, Combet maybe Mike Kelly????..others I haven’t thought of. We’re really spoilt for choice.
longer odds on Swann. Garrett, Mclelland, Cornes, name you own price”
Penny Wong? Prime Minister of Australia? Somehow, I don’t see that happening!
glen says “But we all know what will happen if the tories are beaten. Deputy Dawg will take over fight out a DD election maybe close the gap slightly with Bishop as deputy leader then the knives will come out and Bishop will be leader to fight an election in 2011.”
no offence glen, but I find this prediction more than a little crazy.
875 Frank, too liitle too late I’m afraid. He should have done this ten years ago and the pressure on hospitals wouldn’t be so great. Anyway where is the money for Mental Health that he has been starving of funding for years.
Ozymandias Says: “George (863) I read The Monthly cover-to-cover, every issue. Unfortunately, it only takes me an hour or so, then I have another month to wait. Most newsagents in my area look blank when I ask for it and say: “The monthly what?””
Subscribe to it Ozy
much easier. Also, the Quarterly Essay, and I highly recomment the NIT (National Indigenous Times) for an Aboriginal Australian perspective.
Nath it is a prediction, it is a hypothetical they sometimes sound a little crazy.
How about another crazy prediction someone could have made in 2006 that with Howard on the way back and Beazley faltering that some guy called Kevin Rudd could challenge him, win and then come close to winning an election with only 1 years experience. Had someone told you that last year you’d have called them crazy nath.
Just wanted to get this on the record in case it was missed:
Nick Minchin on ABC radio all this morning trying to restore some fading credibility to the Lib’s economic credentials (after 6 interest rate rises and more front-end loaded from Johnnie’s usual binge-a-thon over the past year):
Needless to say, said you can’t trust labor with money…blah blah
but then there was this mis-speak
“…when Rudd Labor…..pause…..if Labor gets in……”
Sigmund would no doubt have something to say about fiscal rectitude envy…
Its right up their with Nick’s true feelings about wanting to do more with WorkChoices…(but don’t mention that)
And as for fiscal responsibility maybe he should take some time to study the ANAO report released today…maybe the MSM will get its act together and ensure both Cossie and Minchin are actually held accountable for their profligacy for once…
takeout: you can’t trust the Libs with money, Nick
and finally, joy oh joy…
Dolly was asked to speak french….naturally he dogged it and from what little he did say i reckon he’d have a bit of trouble ordering a cafe au lait at the ille de la citte, anyday…
yeah, the french are polite to those who make an effort, but with this parvenu they’d just shrug their shoulders and mutter, “typical rosbiff”…
It’ll be most amusing watching Minchin on the ABC election night telecast.
I hope the smirk gets wiped off his face, and he’ll have Julia Gillard sitting right next to him LOL
I was surprised to read they were sending Gillard. I thought Stephen Smith was their election night man.
Maybe in eight years we might have a president?
I for one, would like to revisit the republic issue.
873
PJK for President Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I think the deeply cynical thing is that the libs know when these letters come out from schools. They come out the same time each year. It is always great early xmas present.
851 [They have plenty of material for the next term and without all the trappings of office the coalition will struggle to defend themselves.]
Glen, could it also be that what they have done is indefensible and a freeing up of the FOI laws could be very embarrassing for the Libs too?
glen, yeah fair enough, but in what universe does Bishop roll Costello in a partyroom ballot? Costello would leave her a blithering mess by the time she put her hand up.
I came upon a most peculiar article in ‘The Age’ (by Jason Koutsoukis, 26/11/06) about Kevin Rudd:
“I once felt the wrath of Kevin Rudd. It was November 2003, when another Labor leader, Simon Crean, was dying a similarly slow death to Kim Beazley’s now, and most of the caucus was itching to dump him before Christmas.
The three alternatives to replace Crean were Beazley, Mark Latham and Rudd.
Asked to write a story about who the Liberals might fear the most, I dug up this quote about Rudd from a senior Liberal strategist: “Rudd is the class prat, the sort of guy who would have worn a bow tie to the high school quiz contest,” said my source. “He might know all the answers, but everyone would want to beat him up after school.”
The phone started ringing very early on the day the story appeared and before the receiver even reached my ear I could hear someone shouting at me.
Amid liberal use of the f-word and several colourful references to me being some kind of very smelly, very fat and very stupid walking genital not fit to breathe the same air as human beings, I realised that it was none other than the bow-tied class prat himself.
The problem, it took me some minutes to work out, was the bit about the bow tie.
“I never even knew what a f—king bow tie was when I was in high school, let alone how to put one on,” Rudd bawled down the phone.
Money not being the most abundant commodity in the Rudd family home, he was deeply offended at the mere suggestion that his was a privileged upbringing with aristocratic pretensions.
Having made his point, the decibel level returned to normal and he rang off with a very cheery “good day, comrade”.”
Certainly does not sound like the Rudd we now know!
she is the Wong candidate
Off topic – the national audit office has slammed the Coalition for rorting the regional grants scheme. All the pork to National seats, none to Labor. They have outdone the legendary Ros Kelly and her whiteboard! It just shows, the Libs and Nats can’t be trusted with money!!
Julie Bishop will never make Prime Minister. Reasons?
1. She is from WA – well, she lives here anyway but is from SA.
2. She will find it hard to get votes given the way she has jumped around supporting Costello and Howard. Loyalty be gets loyalty.
3. She dog-whistles that she is liberal socially but happily supports Liberal right-wing social police thuggery. She is a hypocrite.
4. She is barren – well, I’m just applying the Liberal party’s criteria for leaders as espoused by the recent award-winner – Heffernan.
5. She did herself no favours by getting embroiled in the Liberal mess in WA following the last State election when she was touted as a State Loberal leader. The matter has again recently reared its head.
7. She will lose her seat – well, we can always dream. Given that I’m on the booths in Curtin I’ll be doing my bit.
#890
Sounds fair to me
Labor, govt air differences on Iraq
“Mr Downer said he believed the invasion of Iraq had been the right decision and removing Saddam Hussein had been good for Iraq and the Iraqis.”
“Labor foreign affairs spokesman Robert McClelland said Iraq had been a strategic and humanitarian disaster from the outset.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=307791
Sean at 890,
Puts me more in mind of a smart alec kid who appeared on a popular quiz show in the 1950s.
Costello has two choices obviously, get out of the game or hang in there like Howard and do the hard yards, hope for an implosion and a two term ALP gov. God knows his party will need him if they lose. without him they will be a headless corpse of a sheep.
If Costello didn’t have the numbers to roll Howard, when Howard was essentially asking to be relieved, I can easily see him struggle to maintiant hte numbers in oppostion.
Yes he will attack witheringly any who oppose him, but if someone stands up to him they shouldn’t have too much trouble.
Investment Bankers can be very “frank” with each other too, at times. I suspect Malcolm can wear it on the chin if necessary – assuming he’s still eligible to lead the parliamentary party.
yeah but the libs will be devoted to costello if he’s leader, that’s the way they roll over there. authoritarianism and all that.
887,
Scaper, we WILL revisit this issue. Rudd announced earlier this year (pre official Election 6 week period) that he will put this on a vote for the people IN his first term in office. Now mind you, when he said first term at that point, I am sure he was thinking 3 years so if DD is on the cards we might not see it real soon but it will come.
“The Federal Coalition has unveiled a $250 million election promise to help care for older Australians.
“This will have the consequence not only of providing superior care, but also freeing up public hospital beds for those who need acute care,” he [Howard] said.”
Is that Shanahan’s “king hit”? Looks more like another copy of Labor’s policy with a bit extra thrown in. Howard is still playing catch-up…
with respect, this is just ridiculous. David Hicks joined the Taliban to fight for Islamic fundamentalism, was captured after the US invaded Afghanistan, sent to a US prison camp, then released after a chat between Howard and Cheney. Why would any Liberal MP go to jail for this? Mr Haneef was arrested (by the Federal Police, I think?) and held for questioning over his links to a terrorist bombing in London, then released when it turned out he was innocent. Why would any Liberal MP go to jail for this? Children Overboard? I must admit I never quite understand what is meant by this reference. I think I recall that Peter Reith told lies about it, but then he was always a lying b*stard, and he’s not an MP any more, so he doesn’t count as a current sitting MP. What law was broken? No doubt you are sincere in your views on morality, but this is hardly a basis for handing out jail sentences.
It as as close to certain as it can be that the ALP will win the election comfortably, and in some senses they deserve to win, not least as reward for their well thought out and carefully executed (by Rudd) campaign. But that impending victory doesn’t make wild allegations something other than wild allegations. The idea that Rudd once PM will set about fulfilling the fantasies of the far left wing of the ALP/Greens alliance is hard to believe. If he does, I don’t think he will last more than three years as PM.
885 Howard Hater Says: It’ll be most amusing watching Minchin on the ABC election night telecast
A little rap for you HH
Minchin, his face’ll be pinchin, as
Julia heralds the new rulier,
Kevin … 07
Minchin, his crew will be flinchin as
Nicola, says Kev the pick-o-the…
LOT, break it
(As you can tell from my rap I’m as honky as a sponge cake, but thought I’d give it a bash, any more takers?)
He has a law degree, so yes, he is eligible.
My top ten posters (in no particular order):
1. Hugo
2. Oakeshott Country
3. Lose the election please
4. Nath
5. Swing Lowe
6. Paul K
7. Glen
8. Isabella
9. Diogenes
10. AussieGuru01
I can see we’re about to go off the rails here. Do not post further comments on Hicks, Haneef, etc – they will be deleted.
georg @ 863 – yes, i subscribe to the monthly. it’s v.good – michael gawenda is an excellent speaker, too (melb writers’ fest).
Guys,
I’m feeling more confident as the days go by, but let’s not forget there’s been no polling since the launches. I’m still worried the fist full of dollars might get some punters in.
Not only that, we’ve all been happy this week coz of Newspoll, but lots of us have noted how it’s bouncing around of late. If I see a Neilsen and/ or a Galaxy this close still showing a big lead, I’ll be rapt.
I have the fingers crossed but I’m not popping the champagne yet.
For anyone who wants a bit of light relief this afternoon, I give you the following. It is for anyone who might be needing coffee to stay awake on election night if you are waiting on seats that don’t turn a result right away. The comedian is American so you might not have heard him before. “Coffee” is the operative word here. Also, one note for those who haven’t visited the US before. Dunkin Donuts is similar to a Krispy Kreme. Just adding this to my YouTube collection and thought if there are any coffee addicts out there, you might enjoy it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQxgv4QtKM8
Howard on Sky said at least 3 times that the elction is in 12 days time????? So do we turn up on the 27th?
Julie,
Will the constitution be rewritten with a bill of rights also?
If so, who will author this and how long will it take?
I am a bit political naive, but I believe this process could not be completed entirely in three years to the standard that will endure time.
Abbott also on Sky, looks like a walking corpse.
Stan S at 911
Maybe that’s just how long he will hold out before giving his concessino specch?
883 – Glen
Rudd appeared on my radar in a serious way five years ago when he gave an extensive interview on Radio National. He was fantastic – intelligent, thoughtful and thoroughly reasonable. I thought then and there that this was the man to lead Labour to victory. I said to a work mate (Lib) a18 months ago that Labours dream team (my words) was Rudd and Gillard) and he scoffed at me. He’s been very quiet of late and expects Labour to romp it in. You might be surprised at Rudd’s ascendency but many others are not.
BTW Bishop might make it to leader of the Libs but she’ll not lead to election victory – you’ll need to look elsewhere. Maybe the leader who’ll take the Libs to an election win hasn’t yet been elected to parliament.
Lucky I saw your post William.
With respect JR, you are not entirely correct.
Edward St John: What happened to your blog at the Australian?
Howards lost the plot…..is nurse Hyacinth with him.?
thanks ESJ, sentiment returned. this place needs a little panache.
I think this is a first – John Howard at a press conference and not one mention of interest rates from him. Odd. Have interest rates been Workchoiced?
Edward,
Nice of you to put me in your top 10 but I would have thought your sparring partner Adam would have made the list. You seem to love crossing swords with him.
911
He is losing it ,as was apparent on the Great Fizzer of a Debate. Kindest thing we can do is let the old bugger go. He probably won’t realise anyway if Janette pops the same wallpaper up in the bungalow room as was in Kirrabilli.
When are journalists going to start writing Howard’s obituary apart from the “usual suspects” and an excellent piece in Sat SMH.
If Howard does win, how soon after his first news conference will he be asked that “when is he going to retire?”
Everybody knows he hates it, it was a decision of extreme reluctance and under duress, and journo’s can’t help themselves. and at the end of the Kevin rudd did defeat Johny, although with a 9 month time delay….
Anyway, if Rudd or Howard are putting their careers on the line, then so should Journo’s monitoring this campaign and make the call now… either way.
Surely you could’ve fit Freud in there somewhere.
stanS @ 911 – he was saying “12 days” two days ago – i think it’s wishful “magic pudding” thinking.
Maybe this is his new plan, convince everyone not to vote.
Tops Jen.
Twelve daze of Howard’s nine lives
“It’s been a long election campaign. So long, in fact, that it seems John Howard has lost count of the days.
The Prime Minister incorrectly told journalists several times in Cairns today that there were 12 days until the November 24 election.
One journalist asked whether he knew something different, or if he had a different way of counting the sleeps to election day.
Prompted by local Leichhardt Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop, Mr Howard said, laughing: “It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”
AAP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/belectionb-pm-loses-count-of-sleeps-until-polling-day/2007/11/15/1194766848465.html
903,
JR is an easy name to remember. When it happens, I will say “I told you so” Until then
Let it End is also a fav of mine, mainly because he’s got a dozen bottles of Hill of Grace. you can always do with a mate of that quality.
from the Age online
Twelve daze of Howard’s nine lives
November 15, 2007 – 3:55PM
It’s been a long election campaign. So long, in fact, that it seems John Howard has lost count of the days. The Prime Minister incorrectly told journalists several times in Cairns today that there were 12 days until the November 24 election. One journalist asked whether he knew something different, or if he had a different way of counting the sleeps to election day. Prompted by local Leichhardt Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop, Mr Howard said, laughing: “It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”
(got to love that headline)
912 Scaper,
No idea at all. You and I and everyone else will have to wait and see how it pans out. If I can dig up any details through Google searches in the future, I will post them.
“It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”……….lucky we don’t have nuclear weapons and he has the key!
GetReal 883
1. I did hear the Freudian slip by Minchinon AM today. It was gold. WHEN Labor gets in…IF Labor gets in LOL
2. I speak fluent French and I have to say that Dolly’s facile sentence could be learnt in 5 minutes by any beginner. The accent was atrocious by the way.
Downer said:
“It is true that I speak French but so I am the Foreign Minister of Australia and one must speak English here because you are Australians.”
This is no proof he can speak French at all but it goes to show what buffoon show he really is. His jealousy of Rudd who is not only smart, intelligent but an accomplished Mandarin speaker is there for all to see.
And this is the best FM Australia could muster? What an utter and total embarrassment Lord Dolly AWB Downer has been.
I still thing Rudd should appoint him Australian ambassador to Iraq.
ShowsOn-
haven’t they suffered enough??
Good point, but Glen said he is admired by people “OVERSEAS”, so he should stay there.
Downy only spoke french after he said he wouldn’t and then only to show up what a show off Rudd is.
Makes perfect sense.
LOL 935.
They certainly have, but he hasn’t.
JH @ 933
I concur. Downer’s accent is damn ugly and his French not fluent. There’s a big jump from high school French class to actually being fluent. Downer is still at high school and it is poor form for him to imply that his level of ability compares with Rudd’s.
Gerr are you Sir Humphrey Appleby?
We’d miss him though ShowsOn –
it’s like having our very own home grown Borat.
oh, jen, don’t! i had a vision of him wearing the lime-green beach outfit.
Yes. Ill just check that with ASIO.
Yes.
Poor Johnie, he though with the narrowing he might stand a chance with 12 days, but 9 days has cut his remaining campaigning by a quarter.
As much as I loathe his policies, I do hope its just campaign fatigue.
I wondered whether Downer has been practising that line just in case he ever got asked to prove he could speak French. It certainly didn’t sound very spontaneous to me.
Maybe Dolly could open a stall selling American flags in a downtown Bagdhad market?
He thought even. GRRR!
Howard has completely lost it. He couldn’t even answer a question about protesters who shut down a power station.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22764137-29277,00.html
He is gone, and he knows it.
Paul K,
Adam is way too earnest for me!
@ Shows on
Howard was just on tv and looked and sounded very very tired.