Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
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Educated guesswork
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1,009 Comments
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Agree with that Glen (785).
778 [Bob Katter for the speaker I reckon]
If you thought Abbott was bad turning up half an hour late, this bloke will turn up days late for a meeting. It will never happen Labor knows him too well.
Edward St John in making his partisan claims about Labor’s public service culture, has obviously forgotten that John Howard has massively increased the size of the public services over the previous federal government. Canberra’s population grew from 250,000 – 320,000 during the period 1996 – 2002.
Isabella denigrates those business types who don’t vote Liberal as being lazy and a tax on society. This is the comment of a moron.
Honestly people! Argue reality, not party propaganda. Don’t write cheques that your own Party’s butt can’t cash.
Middle man,
thanks, I’ve read this blog a lot more than I have posted. I felt the swinging voter was being painted as igronant, selfish and easily led. No doubt there are some voters like that – but there also a lot of people who are changing their vote for very carefully thought out reasons.
The fact the polls have tended to produce the same 55/45 result for quite a while suggests (to me at least) that many swinging voters are looking long term.
The FM debate was rather tedious, as you’ve all noted, but made so much more entertaining by Downer’s hissy prissy tone! Macca acquitted himself solidly (if not a bit too stolidly), but he didn’t put a foot wrong.
It was, as Hugh White pointed out, designed to be a draw, but for those of us who’ve felt totally conned into Bush’s balmy invasion, Macca hit the spot.
The very best bit however was Speers talking beforehand, and Hugh White was essentially saying that the more savvy overseas governments would have already concluded that a change of government is much better than even money.
Speers seemed to agree without even flinching.
Ladies and gentlement, the rodent is dead!
Audit exposes Coalition pork-barrel
A Federal Auditor-General report into funding of the controversial regional partnerships program suggests the Howard Government has favoured Coalition-held electorates.
A performance audit released today shows Federal Government ministers were more likely to approve funding for projects not recommended by their department because applications came from Liberal and Nationals electorates.
The audit found that in the year to June 30, 2006, 77 per cent of funding from the program went to rural electorates.
“An ANAO (Australian National Audit Office) analysis revealed that ministers were more likely to approve funding for ‘not recommended’ projects that had been submitted by applicants in electorates held by the Liberal and National parties,” the audit report said.
“And (ministers were) more likely to not approve funding for ‘recommended’ projects that had been submitted by applicants in electorates held by the Labor party.”
Comment was being sought from Nationals leader Mark Vaile.
AAP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/audit-exposes-coalition-porkbarrel/2007/11/15/1194766833352.html
This education debate is of a much higher standard than Downer and McClelland earlier on.
Also, DC (and Glen if you still care),
The NSW Labor government has been responsible for building the following pieces of infrastructure in Sydney alone:
Eastern Distributor
M7 Westlink
M5 East
Lane Cove Tunnel
Cross City Tunnel
Sydney Light Rail
Epping – Chatswood Rail Link
Airport Rail Link
Olympic Park Rail Link
plus the widening of both the M4 and M5….
761
Glen Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
“blindoptimist perhaps the best commentary shall come after this election has been decided on the 25th, your assertions would seem redundant should the tories be returned.”
…
Like I said, wishful thinking is a comfort (especially when the odds are against you.) But I think your mob should get deep and meaningful, do some navel-gazing, question their working assumptions about the world, try to drop the smart-arse acts… generally try to overhaul themselves. It’s never too soon to start.
Xenophon has me a bit bamboozled. I think he is a bit of a political harlot, actually (to borrow from Paul Keating). He tends to agitate against the interests of the incumbent government so he appears to be ‘even-handed’. However, looking at they way he generally votes, I would say he is left of centre, but not much. Certainly he is left on social issues, but more conservative on economic issues.
Hey Frank, do you know a site that has all of the betting odds up for comparison?
668
ShowsOn Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
“Shorten also has an M.B.A.
I think Shorten will be the next Prime Minister after Rudd.
I wonder what odds I’d get for that prediction?”
Gee , Showson, look at the field.. Gillard, Wong ,Shorten, Combet maybe Mike Kelly????..others I haven’t thought of. We’re really spoilt for choice.
longer odds on Swann. Garrett, Mclelland, Cornes, name you own price.
713, 714
I believe Mr Price covets the job. In the past, the Right usually got the Speaker position, so the odds are on Roger the Dodger.
Though Harry Jenkins has been seen for a while as the Speaker in waiting. I guess we’ll wait and see. Maybe Kevin will demand his choice here as well.
Anyone heard a rumor that Howard might step now over the weekend???
Swing Lowe how much of that was paid for with GST money, a Howie initiative?
“Noocat, we’ll see but i think Howard’s policies announced on Monday could close the gap in the polls to say 52-48.”
I would be lying if I didn’t feel a little apprehensive about the next wave of polls. There are a couple of things that will be tested with these polls:
1) are people paying attention to politics now?
2) is the anti-union advertising starting to bite?
3) does going for the moral high ground on economic management trump pork-barrelling? Rudd has gone for the former; Howard for the latter. Is it true that the majority of people just vote for whoever gives them the most money or are there still plenty of people looking towards a bigger picture?
You can’t separate these out by looking at aggregated voting intentions, but if there is a move towards Labor, then it is likely that 1 = yes; 2 = no; and 3 = yes. And if there is no change in the polls, then the government is toast anyway.
Glen:
Why bother sticking up for Howard.
Howard has single handedly destroyed the Liberal party.
If they lose this election, the Liberals will never recover and will become relegated to the dustbin of history, similar to the Democrats.
Why you ask?
Because, the main support for the Liberals comes from the over 60’s. The youth vote in general despite Howard for his policies. As time passes, there will be less of the over 60’s but the youngsters will still be there, teaching their kids about Howard.
Further, economic conservatism is the only thing Howard has left and he has just blown it all. If the ALP get back in, they will demolish the economic conservatism line of the Libs once and for all.
What do the Libs have then? Alex Hawke and self implosion.
795- blindopt
Nah mate they are a great party and everyone thikns so. I reckon they should not change a thing!
Ecuyer’s HTVC is good for Newhouse in another way – the part of the split ticket that favours him is on the left of Turnbull’s, and some of the 90% of voters who are right handed are likely to cover Turnbull’s part with their ballot papers when they vote.
Roll on the Glorious 24th!
despite = despise
No I don’t Ashley@797, sorry
Someone posted it here in PollBludger before, but I lost the bookmark
hay can someone tell me when they expect the newspoll cumulative state by state. It has been coming out weekly on Thursday but still no sign.
Looking for a continued swing to ALP in WA- started last week and i expect it will continue.
Crikey wanted to find out how a Stalinist, Satanist and a KKK member would vote next week. The Satanist is voting for Howard! So’s the Imperial Wizard of KKK, Crikey was surprised he’s not voting for Pauline. The Stalinist is for the Greens.
To those who are raving about Shortens MBA
Give me a break so does Bush !
776 Geoff, I read yr analysis of polls with interest. It’s plausible, I suppose, if you trust polling numbers. But for a reality check I go to mumble’s Fed Elect Since 1910 table. What’s striking there is the gradual disappearance of big 2pp numbers as we recede further from the distant past. I think of Whitlam 72 as the great watershed election. Before then, 2pp figures exceeding 55 were not uncommon (8 times), but since then they’re the exception (2 times). That tends to suggest a more modest prediction for labor of 52-53, even assuming the current “polls” trend holds up. A paradox connected to this seems to be that “modern” elections are more volatile (ie more frequent changes of govt) but the 2pp figures are slightly more concentrated in a 48-52 band. Encumbancy is more significant now, which explains the emphasis parties place on the marginals. I suspect the rusted-on percentages have diminished since ‘72.
Smith is acquiting himself really well. Good rhetoric, positive and forward looking philosophically. Much better than the Lateline performance. In contrast Bishop, who I thought was pretty good on LL is less clear today.
Geoff @ 787, your work is great. Thanks for making it available to humble bludgers such as this one. For interest, do you think the 2CP can widen over the next few days (in Labor’s favour). Or is the result more or less on cruise control?
Betting site
http://www.sportspunter.com/betting?function=tournamentodds&team=all&competitionid=59&tournament=Australian%20Federal%20Election
Why would a Satanist vote for Howard? Isn’t this all getting a bit childish?
818
Big Blind Dave Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
795- blindopt
Nah mate they are a great party and everyone thikns so. I reckon they should not change a thing!
….
lol
Coursework Masters are university cash cows these days, to make up for funding cuts over the last decade particularly. Anyone that has the time and 20k can get an MBA these days.
Glen,
The point I’m trying to make is not about where the money comes from (of course a lot would have come from the GST revenue via state grants), but where it goes. It’s called a ‘vision’ thing – NSW Labor had it, the Federal Coalition has never had it, but Rudd Labor does.
Maybe that’s the reason why Labor has been doing so well in the polls this year…
Given the fact that Howard has no interests in life except cricket, no life experiences except parliament, a wife who keeps egging him on (and obviously doesn’t want him hanging around the house) and a complete incapacity to retire with dignity he’ll no doubt be contesting the leadership of the opposition.
Why would the Satanist vote for Howard?
Perhaps because Howard has done him a few favours over the years?
736 Glen Says: November 15th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
haha… that’s great. Already aiming for the next election. Good tactic using the failed strategy of this one.
I’m not sure you’d be doing your political career any help by continually trying failed election strategies.
Asanque with respect i hope you weren’t advocating a virtual ‘one party state’?
If Howard does lose and the Libs do some soul searching it will take time because we are so far behind in most States and Territories but we will eventually get them one by one. This is because Labor can’t guarantee it will fix everything and they’ll be no buck passing and they’ll have to sit in the **** they’ve created.
The only way the Liberals will be finished is if this is a wipe out of biblical proportions and we then merge with the Nationals to form a new centre-right party, though i doubt this will occur.
Asanque the Democrats are or should i say were just a minor party, this is two party system and we’re the other party so i doubt unless Rudd advocates changing the voting system we’ll be finished.
Glen, purge the religous nutters from your party. They will/are making your party unelectable. You should have had Iemma for breakfast in March…..
790
Glen Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
“… we’ll see but i think Howard’s policies announced on Monday could close the gap in the polls to say 52-48…”
….
52/48 = whistling in the dark, or pi#$%g into the wind, Glen….
833
Sean Says
Great image !
Howard going after the Dollar Sweetie or The Prim Bishop in 2 years time that would be theatre worth the price of maxine not winning.
has this been discussed yet? dont have time to read all the previous blogs
Dani Ecuyer Preferences
November 15th, 2007
Dani Ecuyer is announcing that as a true independent, who is standing on a ‘Climate Change and anti pulp mill ticket”, will split preference. Ms Ecuyer says “that she was always standing to give the constituents of Wentworth a chance to make a concern or protest vote. Voters can send a strong message to the major parties that they want immediate positive policy action on Climate Change solutions and approving the pulp mill is not acceptable, to combat Climate Change.
Ms Ecuyer has preferenced the Greens, the Democrats and the Climate Change Coalition ahead of either the major parties. She is preferencing the Greens in the Senate.
However, Ms Ecuyer says “all voters to must seriously consider that only one party has agreed to ratify Kyoto, the Labor Party. It is imperative that Australia is at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Bali meeting in December. Voters who make the choice and want action on Climate Change should therefore preference Labor.”
Download my How to Vote
ND we lost that election because of our leader plain and simple, he was a deadbeat no offence to Peter but seriously Brogden would have slammed Iemma ah well.
Thankfully many of the religious ‘nutters’ aren’t in Parliament and many support FF but yes i don’t like em but you’ve got to live with them, just like Labor and the Unions.
Been a couple of mentions of Dawson earlier in the thread (649, 659), so thought I’d relate a couple of stories from within the seat itself.
1) De-Anne’s had a TV ad running, which lasts about 10 seconds. Starts with a shot of her introducing herself, flicks to about three different scenes, then finishes with a shot of her, then the Nationals logo.
Words are :- “Hi, I’m De-Anne Kelly. Australia’s best years lie ahead. Under a Coalition government” Then loud voiceover “Vote 1 De-Anne Kelly Putting the People of Dawson first”.
Impression:- She couldn’t have come up with a more patronising ad if she’d tried.
2) Was in a local shopping center one weekend (one just gone?). De-Anne had set up a booth outside Woolies. No, I didn’t go over and say anything (tempted as I was). However, on my way out, I came across a crowd of about four or five ladies, with kids, walking in. All in “Kevin07″ shirts. Couldn’t help myself, had to laugh. And again, no, I didn’t direct them to where De-Anne was (was well-behaved that day).
I’ve received, I think, one item in the mail from both De-Anne and the Labor candidate. Have seen more signs up for the Labor candidate, but as I’ve mainly been in the city of Mackay, that’s not surprising – have to go for a drive this weekend if I have time, to find the De-Anne signs. I did see the Labor candidate out front of the local racetrack on Melbourne Cup day, so that’s one sighting for each of them.
Oh, and there was another of De-Anne’s “Dawson Updates” in the local rag recently. Thought it a bit odd that she could put them out during the campaign. Standard glossy 4-page, but surprisingly, only 11 photos of herself.
Glen:
I’m not advocating it as its not good for democracy. However, thats the path the Liberals are heading down after following Howard.
There is a reason the Liberals have lost every state election, and its not because of the competency of the government.
There is no fresh young blood in the Liberals. The best you have is Alex Hawke in NSW, and after this election (if the Libs lose), there will be utter decimation.
Which state are the Libs likely to get?
The Nats will also be obsolete after this election, so that results in the decimation I referred to earlier.
No one said it would happen overnight, but the future is not looking bright for the Libs, and Howard is to blame. One can only imagine the number of years it will take to revive the Libs if they lose this one.
Swing Lowe (808) I am pleased to note that the NSW State Government have done something in the 12.5 years they have been in power. However, all of those matters were initiated when they had people of competence like Carr and Knowles. The good news for ALP barrackers is that their team will be there until at least March 2011. Kevin Rudd might wish there are four year terms in Federal politics. Indeed if that were so, it might make the bold predictions of a decade or more of ALP primacy in Federal politics a bit more plausible.
Great Debate VII: Julie Bishop vs Stephen Smith
Watch it with me: We’re offering video streaming of the debate, so you can watch Bishop v Smith live and rate their performances here.
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup/
Is this Overington character just another dreary hack doing Rupe’s bidding or what?
Maybe they should just change their masthead at the GG to read: “The Fart of the Nation”, ‘coz that’s all it’s worth with tripe like this airhead pumps out. (Not to mention the excrement from Shammeister and Attila Albrechtsen).
After Rudd’s election, maybe the Oz could just become a satire rag, a tired old re-hasher of Liberal ‘glory days’ and puff pieces on Howard in retirement. It sure as hell is NOT about quality journalism.
Great to have you back, AM. Make yourself at home.
EXCELLENT
………
Asanque I guess it will take as long as it has taken for federal Labor to revive itself. A reminder as well it was only a year ago before Kevin Rudd hit the scene that the ALP was pretty much unelectable.
Sean @ 783
Certainly ghosts. Within News Ltd. Too many “sabbaticals” … think about it … P. Kelly disappears into the ether … to do something in America … Bolt is informed … Ms Overington was merely a cypher for AWB … a case of News Ltd flexing its muscle … so it goes.
Anyway.
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