Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
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Educated guesswork
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1,009 Comments
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Glen
“It won’t be difficult to defeat Rudd subsequently should he win, after all he stands for nothing”
..can’t recall Howard standing for much in ‘96 – other than not being Keating. Its the way oppositions get themselves elected. Any big statements paint a target for a negative campain.
The ALP has not used a lot of the negative material in this election. Negative campaining works best when you are the incumbent. Once the ALP are in power you can expect a not so subtle re-writing of the howard years. They have plenty of material for the next term and without all the trappings of office the coalition will struggle to defend themselves.
WB
I will use restraint today, and apoligise for yesterdays stupid comments.
Re 782,
NGK Says:
and David Hicks and Haneef and Children Overboard and …… but I will stop there. Mark my words, at least one current sitting Lib somewhere somehow will go to court over their failings and possibly jail. Hopefully, more than one. The moral blind eye that the Howard government has in a collective sense is inexcusable and must be punished.
Thommo:
Actually Thommo, these charts show that Howard has been on the nose, long berfore Rudd became opposition leader.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/category/aggregated-polls/
Thank you, AM.
787 – Geoff Lambert
Thanks, Geoff.
“If things go “non-normal” all bets are out the window though., whether 20:1 or 100:1″.
Fair enough.
But under existing conditions, without a bolt from the blue, I assume we can interpret this to mean there is only a 1 per cent chance that Labor can score less than about 54.4 per cent of 2PP (91 seats to the ALP on Antony Green’s calculator) – and only a 1 per cent chance the Coalition can get more than 45.6 per cent.
It’s quite astounding when you think about it that way.
If that doesn’t mean the Libs are rooted, I can’t think what does.
glen @ 841 – i’m pretty sick of all this drivel about unions being BAD. i don’t know what you think the working conditions of australians would be like now if it hadn’t been for unions fighting for occupational health and safety laws and workers’ compensation, as just a couple of examples. you’d be paid a pittance and made to work 80hr weeks. why don’t you think about things before you spout all that c^&p, glen? use your intellect.
802 Steve
Maybe Katter can be late…. he just has to leave that whip hanging for all to see.
Sometimes little children just need to see it to behave.
Interesting Media Release from the ABC re the new Kid’s Channel promised by Howard.
Swing Lowe @ #794
I have a couple of minor corrections to your list:
Construction of the Airport Rail Link commenced in 1992, under a coalition government.
The first stage of the Sydney Light Rail was also built by a coalition government. The Labor government extended it from the casino to Lilyfield, so it could be used by commuters.
You could also include Gore Hill Freeway on your list.
Regards
JB said the Election is about the contest between Left and Right. Excuse me? Are we still living in the 60s. No wonder the Coalition is f******. I take back what I said abut her smile. This debate, SS wins hands down.
Paul K, the pro-nukes realise that you can lease a great stretch of dirt with uranium under it, but you can’t own the sun.
I can’t see Rudd hanging in there any longer than two terms -three at the most- not because the ALP would lose a third (or fourth) election, but becase we would all be so sick of seeing and hearing the same old faces and voices. That is Howard’s major problem, in my view: we are all just so sick of that “err…” at the start of every sentence he utters. Media are so intense and pervasive now, t basically halves the shelf-life of the PM. The ALP will know this from its focus groups, and won’t make the same mistake as the Libs have. Rudd will pass the baton (cheerfully, I should imagine) to Julia Gillard -if the party judges the electorate is ready for her- or to Bill Shorten, who’ll have eight years’ ministerial experience by then.
Do any of you guys get the Monthly? There are two great articles in there, one by Robert Manne, the other by Michael Gawenda on some parallels between the Australian Labor Party and the US Democrats (and their current situation going forward). They’re worth a read if you can get a copy.
have heard a rumour that Gary Morgan (of poll fame) is quoted as saying Howard to win by 1 seat. I presume that this is based on some seat by seat polling as his latest published polls don’t indicate this.
Hey Glen,
Mate I think you should get a grip on yourself. You’re starting to sound as through you’re suffering Stockholm Syndrome. If you are going to vote Labor, I hope you do it because you want to.
Julie Bishop would make a great Liberal leader (I was wrong) She can say white is black, twist statistics, obfuscate and mislead.
Yep she has all the qualities her Team will be looking for.
863,
Would I find that at a newsagents? And what months issue is it? November or December? Thanks
A couple of earlier posts mentioned banks sending out letters about higher repayments I have not got one yet. But I did just get today the fees for my two oldest childrens school fees in the mail. The single year rate for one child has gone up 800 dollars, a 10% increase from last year, and it has been a 10 % increase each year for the last 3 years. So I can see how Howards 800 dollars would be attractive to some even though in my case and I would guess many others, it would just result in a 20% increase next year by the school.
Julie Says: “Would I find that at a newsagents? And what months issue is it? November or December? Thanks”
Hi Julie, I assumed you had a crystal ball
sorry.
It’s Nov 2007 issue and yes it should be at newsagents. I would send a link to the online version, but you need a paying online sub to view it.
George (863) I read The Monthly cover-to-cover, every issue. Unfortunately, it only takes me an hour or so, then I have another month to wait. Most newsagents in my area look blank when I ask for it and say: “The monthly what?”
Gawenda is good. Really good.
It’s the November issue Julie. Great shot of a grinning Kevo on the front. Newsagents hide it behind the Bulletin.
William, how bout a top ten of your personal favourite posters here. we know that AM is on the sh*t list.
867 -
Interesting how that letter from the school has come out this week…I wonder how many others are trying to influence voters.
Shanahan et al should learn to do what Gawenda does – write a second draft.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2092025.htm?section=justin
If the Libs were ever going to have a female Liberal Leader is has to be Bishop. But we all know what will happen if the tories are beaten. Deputy Dawg will take over fight out a DD election maybe close the gap slightly with Bishop as deputy leader then the knives will come out and Bishop will be leader to fight an election in 2011.
Julie Bishop would do a good job i reckon, only problem is she’s from WA, not since Hasluck has a sandgroper had a chance of being the leader of the Liberal Party.
A laptop led economy.
Makes a change from digging ourselves in deeper.
From jobs underground to seeing the light.
Lets see now, kids in Years 10 to 12 are aged on average respectively 15, 16, 17.
In three years time they will be aged 18 years and over.
Many will have commenced further education, academic or technical training, apprenticeships.
All this under the wisdom, leadership and munificence of Labor.
And each of these children have how many voting parents?
When is the election after this?
“Gee , Showson, look at the field.. Gillard, Wong ,Shorten, Combet maybe Mike Kelly????..others I haven’t thought of. We’re really spoilt for choice.
longer odds on Swann. Garrett, Mclelland, Cornes, name you own price”
Penny Wong? Prime Minister of Australia? Somehow, I don’t see that happening!
glen says “But we all know what will happen if the tories are beaten. Deputy Dawg will take over fight out a DD election maybe close the gap slightly with Bishop as deputy leader then the knives will come out and Bishop will be leader to fight an election in 2011.”
no offence glen, but I find this prediction more than a little crazy.
875 Frank, too liitle too late I’m afraid. He should have done this ten years ago and the pressure on hospitals wouldn’t be so great. Anyway where is the money for Mental Health that he has been starving of funding for years.
Ozymandias Says: “George (863) I read The Monthly cover-to-cover, every issue. Unfortunately, it only takes me an hour or so, then I have another month to wait. Most newsagents in my area look blank when I ask for it and say: “The monthly what?””
Subscribe to it Ozy
much easier. Also, the Quarterly Essay, and I highly recomment the NIT (National Indigenous Times) for an Aboriginal Australian perspective.
Nath it is a prediction, it is a hypothetical they sometimes sound a little crazy.
How about another crazy prediction someone could have made in 2006 that with Howard on the way back and Beazley faltering that some guy called Kevin Rudd could challenge him, win and then come close to winning an election with only 1 years experience. Had someone told you that last year you’d have called them crazy nath.
Just wanted to get this on the record in case it was missed:
Nick Minchin on ABC radio all this morning trying to restore some fading credibility to the Lib’s economic credentials (after 6 interest rate rises and more front-end loaded from Johnnie’s usual binge-a-thon over the past year):
Needless to say, said you can’t trust labor with money…blah blah
but then there was this mis-speak
“…when Rudd Labor…..pause…..if Labor gets in……”
Sigmund would no doubt have something to say about fiscal rectitude envy…
Its right up their with Nick’s true feelings about wanting to do more with WorkChoices…(but don’t mention that)
And as for fiscal responsibility maybe he should take some time to study the ANAO report released today…maybe the MSM will get its act together and ensure both Cossie and Minchin are actually held accountable for their profligacy for once…
takeout: you can’t trust the Libs with money, Nick
and finally, joy oh joy…
Dolly was asked to speak french….naturally he dogged it and from what little he did say i reckon he’d have a bit of trouble ordering a cafe au lait at the ille de la citte, anyday…
yeah, the french are polite to those who make an effort, but with this parvenu they’d just shrug their shoulders and mutter, “typical rosbiff”…
It’ll be most amusing watching Minchin on the ABC election night telecast.
I hope the smirk gets wiped off his face, and he’ll have Julia Gillard sitting right next to him LOL
I was surprised to read they were sending Gillard. I thought Stephen Smith was their election night man.
Maybe in eight years we might have a president?
I for one, would like to revisit the republic issue.
873
PJK for President Says:
November 15th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I think the deeply cynical thing is that the libs know when these letters come out from schools. They come out the same time each year. It is always great early xmas present.
851 [They have plenty of material for the next term and without all the trappings of office the coalition will struggle to defend themselves.]
Glen, could it also be that what they have done is indefensible and a freeing up of the FOI laws could be very embarrassing for the Libs too?
glen, yeah fair enough, but in what universe does Bishop roll Costello in a partyroom ballot? Costello would leave her a blithering mess by the time she put her hand up.
I came upon a most peculiar article in ‘The Age’ (by Jason Koutsoukis, 26/11/06) about Kevin Rudd:
“I once felt the wrath of Kevin Rudd. It was November 2003, when another Labor leader, Simon Crean, was dying a similarly slow death to Kim Beazley’s now, and most of the caucus was itching to dump him before Christmas.
The three alternatives to replace Crean were Beazley, Mark Latham and Rudd.
Asked to write a story about who the Liberals might fear the most, I dug up this quote about Rudd from a senior Liberal strategist: “Rudd is the class prat, the sort of guy who would have worn a bow tie to the high school quiz contest,” said my source. “He might know all the answers, but everyone would want to beat him up after school.”
The phone started ringing very early on the day the story appeared and before the receiver even reached my ear I could hear someone shouting at me.
Amid liberal use of the f-word and several colourful references to me being some kind of very smelly, very fat and very stupid walking genital not fit to breathe the same air as human beings, I realised that it was none other than the bow-tied class prat himself.
The problem, it took me some minutes to work out, was the bit about the bow tie.
“I never even knew what a f—king bow tie was when I was in high school, let alone how to put one on,” Rudd bawled down the phone.
Money not being the most abundant commodity in the Rudd family home, he was deeply offended at the mere suggestion that his was a privileged upbringing with aristocratic pretensions.
Having made his point, the decibel level returned to normal and he rang off with a very cheery “good day, comrade”.”
Certainly does not sound like the Rudd we now know!
she is the Wong candidate
Off topic – the national audit office has slammed the Coalition for rorting the regional grants scheme. All the pork to National seats, none to Labor. They have outdone the legendary Ros Kelly and her whiteboard! It just shows, the Libs and Nats can’t be trusted with money!!
Julie Bishop will never make Prime Minister. Reasons?
1. She is from WA – well, she lives here anyway but is from SA.
2. She will find it hard to get votes given the way she has jumped around supporting Costello and Howard. Loyalty be gets loyalty.
3. She dog-whistles that she is liberal socially but happily supports Liberal right-wing social police thuggery. She is a hypocrite.
4. She is barren – well, I’m just applying the Liberal party’s criteria for leaders as espoused by the recent award-winner – Heffernan.
5. She did herself no favours by getting embroiled in the Liberal mess in WA following the last State election when she was touted as a State Loberal leader. The matter has again recently reared its head.
7. She will lose her seat – well, we can always dream. Given that I’m on the booths in Curtin I’ll be doing my bit.
#890
Sounds fair to me
Labor, govt air differences on Iraq
“Mr Downer said he believed the invasion of Iraq had been the right decision and removing Saddam Hussein had been good for Iraq and the Iraqis.”
“Labor foreign affairs spokesman Robert McClelland said Iraq had been a strategic and humanitarian disaster from the outset.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=307791
Sean at 890,
Puts me more in mind of a smart alec kid who appeared on a popular quiz show in the 1950s.
Costello has two choices obviously, get out of the game or hang in there like Howard and do the hard yards, hope for an implosion and a two term ALP gov. God knows his party will need him if they lose. without him they will be a headless corpse of a sheep.
If Costello didn’t have the numbers to roll Howard, when Howard was essentially asking to be relieved, I can easily see him struggle to maintiant hte numbers in oppostion.
Yes he will attack witheringly any who oppose him, but if someone stands up to him they shouldn’t have too much trouble.
Investment Bankers can be very “frank” with each other too, at times. I suspect Malcolm can wear it on the chin if necessary – assuming he’s still eligible to lead the parliamentary party.
yeah but the libs will be devoted to costello if he’s leader, that’s the way they roll over there. authoritarianism and all that.
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