Statsmeister extraordinaire Geoff Lambert has sent through an exhaustive statistical analysis of recent polling trends, and concluded that the number of seats won by Labor will have a nine in front of it. Read all about it here. In other prediction news, I have contributed an assessment of the state of play in the Senate to Crikey. For those who can’t or won’t read this, a quick summary. I think it most likely that New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania will go three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens, Western Australia will reverse those numbers for Labor and Liberal, and South Australia will go two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens and one Nick Xenophon. Queensland is a tricky one, but if I had to put my money somewhere it would be on three Labor and three Coalition – though neither the Greens nor Family First can be written off. I will also go out on the same limb as Malcolm Mackerras and tip Kerrie Tucker of the Greens to defeat Liberals Senator Gary Humphries in the ACT. That points to a huge result of six Senate seats for the Greens. The Coalition will be down from 39 seats to 34, Labor will be up from 28 to 32, and the Greens will double their numbers from four seats to eight, with Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding joining them on the cross-benches. I must sadly concur with the consensus that this election will mark the end of the Australian Democrats.
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Educated guesswork
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1,009 Comments
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887,
Scaper, we WILL revisit this issue. Rudd announced earlier this year (pre official Election 6 week period) that he will put this on a vote for the people IN his first term in office. Now mind you, when he said first term at that point, I am sure he was thinking 3 years so if DD is on the cards we might not see it real soon but it will come.
“The Federal Coalition has unveiled a $250 million election promise to help care for older Australians.
“This will have the consequence not only of providing superior care, but also freeing up public hospital beds for those who need acute care,” he [Howard] said.”
Is that Shanahan’s “king hit”? Looks more like another copy of Labor’s policy with a bit extra thrown in. Howard is still playing catch-up…
with respect, this is just ridiculous. David Hicks joined the Taliban to fight for Islamic fundamentalism, was captured after the US invaded Afghanistan, sent to a US prison camp, then released after a chat between Howard and Cheney. Why would any Liberal MP go to jail for this? Mr Haneef was arrested (by the Federal Police, I think?) and held for questioning over his links to a terrorist bombing in London, then released when it turned out he was innocent. Why would any Liberal MP go to jail for this? Children Overboard? I must admit I never quite understand what is meant by this reference. I think I recall that Peter Reith told lies about it, but then he was always a lying b*stard, and he’s not an MP any more, so he doesn’t count as a current sitting MP. What law was broken? No doubt you are sincere in your views on morality, but this is hardly a basis for handing out jail sentences.
It as as close to certain as it can be that the ALP will win the election comfortably, and in some senses they deserve to win, not least as reward for their well thought out and carefully executed (by Rudd) campaign. But that impending victory doesn’t make wild allegations something other than wild allegations. The idea that Rudd once PM will set about fulfilling the fantasies of the far left wing of the ALP/Greens alliance is hard to believe. If he does, I don’t think he will last more than three years as PM.
885 Howard Hater Says: It’ll be most amusing watching Minchin on the ABC election night telecast
A little rap for you HH
Minchin, his face’ll be pinchin, as
Julia heralds the new rulier,
Kevin … 07
Minchin, his crew will be flinchin as
Nicola, says Kev the pick-o-the…
LOT, break it
(As you can tell from my rap I’m as honky as a sponge cake, but thought I’d give it a bash, any more takers?)
He has a law degree, so yes, he is eligible.
My top ten posters (in no particular order):
1. Hugo
2. Oakeshott Country
3. Lose the election please
4. Nath
5. Swing Lowe
6. Paul K
7. Glen
8. Isabella
9. Diogenes
10. AussieGuru01
I can see we’re about to go off the rails here. Do not post further comments on Hicks, Haneef, etc – they will be deleted.
georg @ 863 – yes, i subscribe to the monthly. it’s v.good – michael gawenda is an excellent speaker, too (melb writers’ fest).
Guys,
I’m feeling more confident as the days go by, but let’s not forget there’s been no polling since the launches. I’m still worried the fist full of dollars might get some punters in.
Not only that, we’ve all been happy this week coz of Newspoll, but lots of us have noted how it’s bouncing around of late. If I see a Neilsen and/ or a Galaxy this close still showing a big lead, I’ll be rapt.
I have the fingers crossed but I’m not popping the champagne yet.
For anyone who wants a bit of light relief this afternoon, I give you the following. It is for anyone who might be needing coffee to stay awake on election night if you are waiting on seats that don’t turn a result right away. The comedian is American so you might not have heard him before. “Coffee” is the operative word here. Also, one note for those who haven’t visited the US before. Dunkin Donuts is similar to a Krispy Kreme. Just adding this to my YouTube collection and thought if there are any coffee addicts out there, you might enjoy it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQxgv4QtKM8
Howard on Sky said at least 3 times that the elction is in 12 days time????? So do we turn up on the 27th?
Julie,
Will the constitution be rewritten with a bill of rights also?
If so, who will author this and how long will it take?
I am a bit political naive, but I believe this process could not be completed entirely in three years to the standard that will endure time.
Abbott also on Sky, looks like a walking corpse.
Stan S at 911
Maybe that’s just how long he will hold out before giving his concessino specch?
883 – Glen
Rudd appeared on my radar in a serious way five years ago when he gave an extensive interview on Radio National. He was fantastic – intelligent, thoughtful and thoroughly reasonable. I thought then and there that this was the man to lead Labour to victory. I said to a work mate (Lib) a18 months ago that Labours dream team (my words) was Rudd and Gillard) and he scoffed at me. He’s been very quiet of late and expects Labour to romp it in. You might be surprised at Rudd’s ascendency but many others are not.
BTW Bishop might make it to leader of the Libs but she’ll not lead to election victory – you’ll need to look elsewhere. Maybe the leader who’ll take the Libs to an election win hasn’t yet been elected to parliament.
Lucky I saw your post William.
With respect JR, you are not entirely correct.
Edward St John: What happened to your blog at the Australian?
Howards lost the plot…..is nurse Hyacinth with him.?
thanks ESJ, sentiment returned. this place needs a little panache.
I think this is a first – John Howard at a press conference and not one mention of interest rates from him. Odd. Have interest rates been Workchoiced?
Edward,
Nice of you to put me in your top 10 but I would have thought your sparring partner Adam would have made the list. You seem to love crossing swords with him.
911
He is losing it ,as was apparent on the Great Fizzer of a Debate. Kindest thing we can do is let the old bugger go. He probably won’t realise anyway if Janette pops the same wallpaper up in the bungalow room as was in Kirrabilli.
When are journalists going to start writing Howard’s obituary apart from the “usual suspects” and an excellent piece in Sat SMH.
If Howard does win, how soon after his first news conference will he be asked that “when is he going to retire?”
Everybody knows he hates it, it was a decision of extreme reluctance and under duress, and journo’s can’t help themselves. and at the end of the Kevin rudd did defeat Johny, although with a 9 month time delay….
Anyway, if Rudd or Howard are putting their careers on the line, then so should Journo’s monitoring this campaign and make the call now… either way.
Surely you could’ve fit Freud in there somewhere.
stanS @ 911 – he was saying “12 days” two days ago – i think it’s wishful “magic pudding” thinking.
Maybe this is his new plan, convince everyone not to vote.
Tops Jen.
Twelve daze of Howard’s nine lives
“It’s been a long election campaign. So long, in fact, that it seems John Howard has lost count of the days.
The Prime Minister incorrectly told journalists several times in Cairns today that there were 12 days until the November 24 election.
One journalist asked whether he knew something different, or if he had a different way of counting the sleeps to election day.
Prompted by local Leichhardt Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop, Mr Howard said, laughing: “It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”
AAP
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/belectionb-pm-loses-count-of-sleeps-until-polling-day/2007/11/15/1194766848465.html
903,
JR is an easy name to remember. When it happens, I will say “I told you so” Until then
Let it End is also a fav of mine, mainly because he’s got a dozen bottles of Hill of Grace. you can always do with a mate of that quality.
from the Age online
Twelve daze of Howard’s nine lives
November 15, 2007 – 3:55PM
It’s been a long election campaign. So long, in fact, that it seems John Howard has lost count of the days. The Prime Minister incorrectly told journalists several times in Cairns today that there were 12 days until the November 24 election. One journalist asked whether he knew something different, or if he had a different way of counting the sleeps to election day. Prompted by local Leichhardt Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop, Mr Howard said, laughing: “It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”
(got to love that headline)
912 Scaper,
No idea at all. You and I and everyone else will have to wait and see how it pans out. If I can dig up any details through Google searches in the future, I will post them.
“It’s nine, yes, key point. Knockout blow.”……….lucky we don’t have nuclear weapons and he has the key!
GetReal 883
1. I did hear the Freudian slip by Minchinon AM today. It was gold. WHEN Labor gets in…IF Labor gets in LOL
2. I speak fluent French and I have to say that Dolly’s facile sentence could be learnt in 5 minutes by any beginner. The accent was atrocious by the way.
Downer said:
“It is true that I speak French but so I am the Foreign Minister of Australia and one must speak English here because you are Australians.”
This is no proof he can speak French at all but it goes to show what buffoon show he really is. His jealousy of Rudd who is not only smart, intelligent but an accomplished Mandarin speaker is there for all to see.
And this is the best FM Australia could muster? What an utter and total embarrassment Lord Dolly AWB Downer has been.
I still thing Rudd should appoint him Australian ambassador to Iraq.
ShowsOn-
haven’t they suffered enough??
Good point, but Glen said he is admired by people “OVERSEAS”, so he should stay there.
Downy only spoke french after he said he wouldn’t and then only to show up what a show off Rudd is.
Makes perfect sense.
LOL 935.
They certainly have, but he hasn’t.
JH @ 933
I concur. Downer’s accent is damn ugly and his French not fluent. There’s a big jump from high school French class to actually being fluent. Downer is still at high school and it is poor form for him to imply that his level of ability compares with Rudd’s.
Gerr are you Sir Humphrey Appleby?
We’d miss him though ShowsOn –
it’s like having our very own home grown Borat.
oh, jen, don’t! i had a vision of him wearing the lime-green beach outfit.
Yes. Ill just check that with ASIO.
Yes.
Poor Johnie, he though with the narrowing he might stand a chance with 12 days, but 9 days has cut his remaining campaigning by a quarter.
As much as I loathe his policies, I do hope its just campaign fatigue.
I wondered whether Downer has been practising that line just in case he ever got asked to prove he could speak French. It certainly didn’t sound very spontaneous to me.
Maybe Dolly could open a stall selling American flags in a downtown Bagdhad market?
He thought even. GRRR!
Howard has completely lost it. He couldn’t even answer a question about protesters who shut down a power station.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22764137-29277,00.html
He is gone, and he knows it.
Paul K,
Adam is way too earnest for me!
@ Shows on
Howard was just on tv and looked and sounded very very tired.
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