Nath it is a prediction, it is a hypothetical they sometimes sound a little crazy.

How about another crazy prediction someone could have made in 2006 that with Howard on the way back and Beazley faltering that some guy called Kevin Rudd could challenge him, win and then come close to winning an election with only 1 years experience. Had someone told you that last year you’d have called them crazy nath.

Glen, I give you Peter Brent:

http://www.mumble.com.au/index_oldish22.html#ruddlead

54-46, 90% taken before Rudd’s launch.

“I think the Auditor-Generals story is bigger than people are suggesting…”

I agree. This is seriously damning evidence of pork-barrelling and that the Howard government is dishonest to its core. If the Labor and the Coalition had been neck and neck in the polls, this might have been a tipping point in the election. I doubt, however, that there are any Liberals left capable of unrusting themselves so it probably won’t have much of an effect.

It’s the main item on ABC news, and I expect it’ll be a big issue on The 7.30 Report and Lateline and tomorrow’s AM.

Another blogger suggested that there’s more nail than wood in the coffin now. After this, nails will be being hammered into nails.

Downer is a clear performer and the best FM I think we’ve ever had

You must have lead a very sheltered life, Glen.

Go back to Oct 1998 Australian intelligence officers learn of the Indonesian military’s (TNI) murderous plans for East Timor should there be a vote on independence, including the arming of ET’s militias by the Indo FA.

Feb 1999, Downer tackles Indo FM Alatas on this and Alatas, who hates Downer and regards him as a buffoon, confirms his dept is arming the militias and tells Downer to mind his own F$@#$ business.

Jan 1999, The US, Portugal and Xanana Gusmao all call for peace keepers to be sent to ET immediately. Downer blocks this.

Feb 1999 US Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth starts getting toey about what the TNI will do and wants a substantial armed peace keeping force to go into ET ahead of any vote. Downer blocks Roth. Two days later Portugese FM also calls for a substantial peace keeping force ahead of voting. Again Downer acts to stop this.

March 1999. Our Defence Intelligence Organisation warns the government that the TNI are arming the militias and Indo special forces are involved. Downer disputes the militias are being armed despite Alatas having confirmed this back in Feb. Somehow Laurie Oaks gets wind of this and asks Downer if Indo Foreign Affairs is arming the militas. Downer says no.

Again blames rogue elements because “If it’s happening at all [attacks on civilians], and there is concern it could be happening, it certainly isn’t official Indonesian government policy, it certainly isn’t something that’s being condoned by General Wiranto, the head of the armed forces,” knowing full well of the plans the TNI had for ET.

6 April 1999, The first massacre takes place. Downer blames it on rogue elements within TNI.

Mid June 1999, US Sec of State Madeline Albright wants to fly to Indonesia and personally kick Gen. Wiranto’s ass into the next week while keeping a firm grip on his nuts. Downer talks her out of it. Claims its Australia’s problem and he can deal with it.

Late June 1999, Downer sends the Vice CDF, AM Doug Riding to confront the TNI. Riding only gets to see 2 of Wiranto’s deputies (one is Yudhoyono, the current Indo Pres.). Riding does his best and is as tough as his instructions from Downer allow, which isn’t anywhere as tough as he wants to be or the situation requires, and nowhere near as tough as Albright would have been!

Less than a week later the Koupassis lead militias begin attacking UN compounds.

July 1999, Downer pops into Djakarta, has a brief meeting with the Indo President, and Wiranto and then heads off to London for the cricket!

September 1999, Downer returns from the Ashes series to growing public demands to do something as Koupassas and the militias are in full rampage, following independence vote. Dili is ablaze, hundreds of ET civilians are dead and over 200,000 are being forced across the border into West Timor.

He whines that even his children won’t speak to him, but does nothing because we can’t impose ourselves on a sovereign country and anyway the trouble is only caused by a few rouge elements. I’m sure the Indonesians took that as a wink and a nod that we might huff and puff, but in the end do nothing.

Finally, Howard buckles and takes over, orders our UN military attache and leading TNI expert Allan Behm to threaten Indonesia/the TNI with massive sanctions, war crimes charges against Wiranto and unspecified other actions. Not coincidently the threat is issued as Wiranto is flying to Dili. F-111Cs are moved from Amberley to Tindal.

Fortunately, the Indonesians take the hint and ask for an internation force to be sent.

Want to hazard a guess how many Timorese died because of your hero’s incompetence/prevarications, Glen?

And lets not forget AWB.

Fast forward to 2003: Australian SAS troops are among the first to illegally invade Iraq some days before the dead line issued to Hussein to leave Iraq. Downer has a prime role in our worst foreign policy debacle since Vietnam. It also makes him our only war criminal FM.

And lets not forget AWB.

2006. Israel invades Lebanon stranding hundreds of Australians in a war zone. DFAT officers in the region do their best but other countries offer more to shipping companies to take their citizens, and calls for intervention by Downer to get ships initially fall on deaf ears. Could it have been because almost all were Lebanese Australians? Only when public disquiet become palpable is there movement and I believe the PM was the one to take action. Again! It takes over a week to rescue them.

And lets not forget AWB.

Glen, while this pompous ass is the FM I strongly urge you not to travel overseas because if you got into serious trouble the chances of him lifting a finger to help is remote. He is a lazy, incompetent idiot with delusions of greatness, even grandeur.