Word in comments is that an Adelaide Advertiser poll from Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt has been previewed on Tony Delroy’s “what the papers say” segment on ABC Radio. The poll, presumably conducted from the Advertiser’s usual 700-plus sample, shows Pyne with a narrow lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred. This follows this morning’s ABC poll of 297 respondents which had Pyne’s lead at 55-45. The existing margin is 6.8 per cent.
UPDATE: The Advertiser reports:
The two-party preferred vote is now 51-49 in Mr Pyne’s favour, tightening from 52-48 in a previous poll on October 3. Ms Handshin also recorded a strong rise in her primary vote from 35 per cent to 38 per cent. Mr Pyne is steady at 44 per cent … The Advertiser poll shows just 6 per cent of voters in Sturt remain undecided.
Also:
Ms Handshin has been described this week by senior Labor powerbrokers as “a revelation” during the campaign and she is destined to become a long-term project for the party. The law graduate, former AdelaideNow blogger and former Advertiser columnist, 29, is earmarked by party officials for another tilt at the federal arena. They will not rule out considering her for a state seat such as Norwood, should Vini Ciccarello decide to call it quits at the 2010 state election.
82 Comments
The swing seems to be roughly in line with what the Newspoll state aggregates are saying (once you include the Pyne incumbency factor).
I’m still not confident Handshin will win.
I’m the eternal pessimist though.
We just need more hot South Australian women in parliament and when i say hot i include intellect (but that quality is weighted.)
Considering this is Adelaide to get 51-49 to the Tories is a good result
Andrews is a deadbeat and a poor media performer, one of those alsorand Ministers who won’t achieve much like Wilson Tuckey lol!
Still what id like is for both major parties to have a clean out of their MPs.
Go through the lists who has potential who is an up and comer who could be a future leader who has good networking skills and popularity, who has some good fresh ideas. I think we get on both sides 25% of our MPs who have talent and the rest are drop kicks who will achieve nothing and warm the seat until another lawyer or a trade unionist takes it from them. I think it’s fair to say both parties could force the retirement of at least half of their backbenchers who are under performers. We are all on about standards but we don’t have standards for MPs, they don’t have to meet a criteria or prove they can do the job or take on more responsibility or more roles to get to where they are.
Landslides are never a good thing, look at post 1966 in 1969 the tories almost lost after having a what 30 odd seat majority. After 1975 Fraser got a reduced mandate in 1977 and 1980 and after 1983 Hawke got a much reduced mandate in 1984 in the share of votes.
I would think if accountability and responsible are required, we need an opposition party to hold at least 65 if not more seats, an opposition of less than 50 MPs is hardly going to be sufficient to hold the government accountable IMHO.
After Rudd’s launch and today’s new disasters for the Coalition Labor will sustain its momentum and overtake the Libs here, and maybe in Boothby too.
The undecideds if they break 2/1 as Anthony Green suggested may put ALP over the line.
Um, Sturt includes some of the richest suburbs in Adelaide. If The Duchess of Sturt loses there, you’re gonna get obliterated in other electorates.
And The Oz is back to form in its editorials:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22765873-16741,00.html
Glan – your eternal optimism is no bad thing (I well remember insisting that the Howard-Kennett correspondence touted by Ralph Willis would get Labor over the line in 96 – at least for a couple of hours, that is). But I am genuinely curious to know – if the Coalition does lose this election, what policy mistakes do you think it made for this to have come about?
I worked on Hindmarsh on Steve Georganus first two attempts- it was a real slog and the bloke did it with very little financial support the first time.
I have never seen a candidate knock on more doors in any campaign I have been involved in or observed- EVER.
He deserves the easier ride this time, he has earned it.
It is OBVIOUS! Glen hasn’t ONCE defended WorkChoices on this forum.
His silence on the coalition’s major policy of the term just gone suggests even he realises it has killed off the government.
Glen – sorry, mispelt your name – no snide inference intended…
The regional newspoll suggests to me the farm workers realise they aren’t being looked after by the Nats just because they live in the bush. I wonder what workchoices is doing to town dinamic in addition to voting intentions
An interesting result in Sturt,I’d like to see more info.I suspect,based on these figures Pyne is a very worried man!!!!
And that episode of McCleod’s Daughters with the Workchoices AWA Scene would’ve have also had an effect in the Bush.
Glen, that’s the most lucid and sensible thing you have said. I admire your candor. I don’t admire your politics, mind.
And Downfall is a fantastic film.
Should be up on the http://www.adelaidenow.com.au website in about half an hour.
Just listened to the ABC delayed netcast of Tony Delroys show (broadcast at abc.net.au/adelaide). To add to my previous post:
Delroy said that according to a poll out today (Friday, 16 Nov) “a Federal Minister could lose his seat”, to which the Advertiser journo Robert Didn’t-Catch-His-Surname said “That is correct”, and that “Labor’s star recruit” has come within a “handful of votes” to “dramatically close the gap” on Pyne. The journo said the poll was taken Wed night, and drew on 700 respondents. The poll result is 51-49 in Pyne’s favour.
Go Mia!
Simon Jackman may be proven right – Sturt could be one of the last seats to fall into Labor favourability on the betting markets.
Yes, was absent from post. Listening to WTPS.
Advertiser reported it as ‘dramatic’ close.
Down to one and a half percent gap, as I think I heard it.
Oh, and Dennis is back with his view that the ALP supports pattern bargaining, even though it has said on many times that it doesn’t.
Also of note is the view that Rudd has taken a major risk by being economically conservative with his education spend. It’s a wonder what 24 hours can do…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22765253-5014047,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22767578-1702,00.html
Abbots ultimate Gafe
Caught on Camera
That is much more like what I would expect. There is no reason for the swing in Sturt to be much less than that observed in the rest of SA. With a 6.8% margin last time, that should make it 50/50. In fact, with the boundary shift picking up mortgage belt areas in Tea Tree Gully, it should be notionaly more marginal than before.
To answer questions of others on the nature of the seat, it is a somewhat gentrified electorate, with an average age higher than the SA average, itself above the national average. So there is not a large young vote. Although close to the east edge of Adelaide city, the inner area redevelopment trend hasn’t really happened in Adelaide yet, unlike similar areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Still, it is a well educated electorate, and the boundaries have shifted north, improving demographics for Labor.
An astute Labor campaigner might ask questions of Liberal member Chris Pyne’s non-action on many moral issues such as Haneef, children overboard, wrongful detention etc to prick the consciences of small L liberals in Sturt.
Good luck Mia Handshin, its a tough battle but not impossible.
Someone has hacked into Glen’s account.
Seriously, I would be very surprised if Labor won Sturt – they’ve been trailing consistently throughout the pre-campaign and campaign proper. Things would have to take a considerable turn for the worse for the Libs if Sturt is to fall on election day.
I hope whoever filmed it is the most militant unionist in Australia.
I hope he or she is like in 19 different unions, and is trying to re-register the BLF.
Primary’s in ACN is 47/43.
50% of voters believe the Government don’t deserve to be re-elected, 60% believe Labor will win the election.
PPM – Rudd up 49/43
Primary’s in ACN is 47/43.
50% of voters believe the Government don’t deserve to be re-elected, 60% believe Labor will win the election.
PPM – Rudd up 49/43.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/poll-creep-not-enough-to-save-pm/2007/11/15/1194766869070.html
ShowsOn 7
You are absolutely right; getting this seat to 50/50 is in itself a great result. As for wealth, I don’t know figures for the seat, but Burnside Council (one of the largest municipalities that makes up the seat) has less than 30% of home residents paying mortgages – over 60% own their home clear, and only 10% or so rent. So interest rates will bite less here than elsewhere. Conversely, as you say, if the coalition lose this, they will have few urban seats left.
#26
I hear it’s Norm Callaghers grandson
“G”
700 is too small a sample to call it on that difference. MoE is +/- 3.7% (at least – not accounting for AA fiddling of the sample). Is there a series that we can look at for this seat?
For what it’s worth, I believe Sturt is the 50th wealthiest seat in terms of average house hold income.
“But Mr Howard said Labor had never been economically responsible and Mr Rudd’s attempts to compare one day’s tally of promises instead of the full amount since the start of the campaign was deceitful.”
This is the same John Howard who boasted that he supported all of the economic and financial reforms of the Hawke and Keating Governments, now saying that they were economically irresponsible?
Mad old bat.
BTW, Glen, you’ve gone strangely silent once more.
well i just watched lateline intro so i have seen what you have all been talking about.
OMG!
I wont sleep now, but i feel if i dont that Santa wont have left the presents under the tree in the morning.
Give the guy a break. There is only three of him.
BBD – nothing to worry about: there is somewhere between 8 and 12 sleeps to go.
LOL!
Maybe Howard should just have ONE really, really long sleep?
Thanks El
I will sleep better when workchoices is gone, not when Howard is gone.
But maybe at least I will then know it’s closer
26. Meh… it doesn’t have the same ring to it as Hockey’s fear campaign.
Daniel nobody has hacked onto my account at least that i am aware of but i have said this on serial occasions about how i think many politicians are deadbeats who are there to fill up the numbers, each side is a victim of this Labor and Liberal. For the good of our parties we both need to renew i mean if you are going to have an MP be in Parliament for 15 years and not be a Minister or a Shadow you’ve got to ask why did we pre-select them in the first place?
I won’t speculate on why we are in the position we’re in until after the election that would be prudent and wise for i do not know the outcome of the election as of yet. What one can take from the figures and the polls is id rather be in your position than mine.
Politics is a tough game but you’ve got to take the sweet with the bitter, i’ve seen us triumph in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 perhaps i am soon to taste the bitter of federal election defeat. However it is not as if i have been accustomed to defeat after all i’ve seen my side of politics lose in Victoria in 1999, 2002 and 2006 which were painful.
I go into election day without expectations thus the sting of defeat should it arise shall not burden me as much as if i gave myself false hope that victory was assured. Nevertheless we still don’t know the outcome it will be an interesting night regardless, and i still think the election is not in the bag for Labor just yet ask me next week with the polls still at 55-45 then you may well get a concession.
Dont you dare conceed next week before polling night Glen- We all concede when our leader does and not before. Most of us respect your loyalty and dedication to your principles.
“Fewer than three in ten voters now expect the Coalition to survive.”
I think the fact our system is based on highly disciplined parties creates this. You need a solid backbench who are good at winning close elections, but not necessarily good at policy.
Compare that to the American system where the politicians are politico – they represent themselves, their states, and their parties, but not particularly in that order on any particular issue.
This means every election they need to go to the voters and say what they did, what legislation did they sponsor. What results did they get.
I think that is a much better system, because it makes the politician freer to support good ideas wherever they originate from. Our system works against that, governments need discipline in the house else they fall, and in the senate, else they won’t get anything passed.
You know what still amazes me most about this campaign? There hasn’t been one major national poll with the government less than 53% 2PP all year. Not one. Nada.
With MOE’s of 3% or so, you’d think that every couple of months their might have been an outlier or two to perk up the Libs’ fortunes, but it just hasn’t happened. Statistically speaking, 1 in 20 polls should end up outside the MOE, but those all seem to have been in Labor’s favor instead.
It’s quite incredible, and it really makes you think that the electorate made up its mind a long, long time ago. Just eight days left…
It would be evident by then if the polls were as they’ve been it would take a massive shift on election day for the tories to win. But let’s leave concessions speeches for Rudd or Howard on election night Dave you are correct.
It seems that George Newhouse has fled from a candidates’ debate in Wentworth. Coward! Emulating his worm of a leader, no doubt.
And ACN has the primaries at 43/47? So the reality is 45/45, then.
46 Steve
I didnt know Newhouse had Abott for a leader?
Let me guess, under represented National Party vote?
Steven, Newhouse was a stooge anyway, Malcolm should hold on after this display of arrogance by George. Why would he not attend, he’s got something to hide. Something tells me we wont be seeing much of George till election day.
Portlandbet has ALP steady in Sturt at $2.25. Seats that have firmed in the last four hours include Macarther $3.20 to $3.10, Longman $2.50 to $2.45 and McMillan $2.00 to $1.97. Page currently at $1.90. Petrie and Corangamite both at $1.95.
Does anyone have any idea why The Australian is leading with the story that Bishop is going to set the core curriculum? This is just a copy of a Labor policy that was announced 6 months ago.
The bigger story of the day was of course the auditor generals report into government rorts, and Tony Abbott admitting that WorkChoices rips off workers.
Where would we be without old Monty Python sketches?
Rat Recipes
Rat Pie:
Take four medium-sized rats and lay them on the chopping board. Having first made sure the chopper is freshly sharpened, raise it as far above the first rat as you can. Make sure that the rat’s neck is well exposed, then bring the chopper down with as much force as possible onto the neck or head of the rat. Then cook it in a pie.
Rat Souffle:
Make sure that the rat’s squeals are not audible from the street, particularly in areas where the Anti-Souffle League and similar do-gooders are out to persecute the innocent pleasures of the table. Anyway, cut the rat down and lay it on the chopping board. Raise the chopper high above your head, with the steel glinting in the setting sun, and then bring it down – wham! – with a vivid crunch – straight across the taut neck of the terrified rodent, and make it into a souffle.
Rat Stew:
This recipe is slightly more difficult, and does require preparation. You must first take a bottle of fresh red wine (a Cabernet-Sauvignon is favoured by most chefs), and a mixture of fresh garden herbs. The latter should be chopped finely and heated gently in the wine until the rich aroma of thyme and basil permeates the air and tantallizes your taste-buds. This will eventually become the marinade, and should be cooled down in the fridge until needed. Then, take a small to medium sized rat for each person to be fed. Take a pair of nail clippers or other tiny scissors and trim back the hair on the rat’s neck. Swiftly strike a sharp nail through the centre of the dehaired area, watching as it glints menacingly in the light of the first full moon. Suck in the intoxicating scent of terror as the rat screams and convulses its helpless limbs. Take a wooden skewer and ram it quickly down the awaiting throat of the rodent; twist and withdraw to clear its intestines. Then take the sharpest knife in the kitchen and hold it above the rat’s weary carcass – savour this moment! It represents the infinite servitude of vermin under man! And bring down the knife with a sweeping motion. Then marinate and stew.
Bits Of Rat Hidden Under A Chair:
This isn’t so much a recipe as a bit of advice in the event of members of the Anti-Souffle League or its simpering lackeys breaking into your flat. Your wife (or a friend’s) should engage the pusillanimous toadies from the League in conversation, perhaps turning the chat to the price of corn and the terrible damage inflicted by all kinds rodents on personal property, and rats attacking small babies (this always takes the steam out of them) and you should have time to get any rat-bits safely out of sight. Incidentally, do make sure that your current copy of ‘The Rat Gourmet’ hasn’t been left lying around, otherwise it will all be in vain, and the braying hounds of the culinary killjoys will be unleashed upon the things that you cherish: your chopping-board, the chopper caught in the blood-red glare of the fading sun. Bring it down – crunch! The slight splintering of tiny spinal column under the keen metal! The last squeal and the death twitches of the helpless rat!
Signing off…
I too will sign off now, but leave a final remark for the night.
The beauty of the Rudd campaign is that he has taken the debate to economics in the final week. Howard is playing along thinking it’s too good to be true.
Well it is. There is overwhelming evidence that Howard has more support for economic matters but that is not going to change votes anymore than it has already achieved.
So Rudds line is “why not spend the last week on that topic if it distracts Howard from finding a Tampa or some other massive last minute wedge. Let him think the unions are bad ads are working and talking about the economy will help him win votes.”
That my friends is why this election is over, put a carton in the fridge, Alex P Keaton has left the building.
the thing about ACN is:
ALP:
Primary 47
TPP 54
Coalition:
Primary 43
TPP 46
that means the minors split 7 to 3
There is no more vote to go the Coalitions way. They have already soaked up all the Rightwing vote.
Stephen Kaye @ 47: Source, please. And I doubt Newhouse is emulating the Prime Minister on purpose…
Here’s the story.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22766662-5006301,00.html
Labor primary now 38 up from 35 in the previous poll.
Liberal on 44
17% of people who voted for Pyne in 2004 are now voting for Handshin.
Women Voters: Pyne 46 Handshin 41
Male voters: Pyne 37 Handshin 41
I wonder who this mysterious third party is, courting 9 percent of male voters?
William Bowe Says:
March 21st, 2006 at 11:32 am
Thanks Antony, I’ve corrected it.
You may be right Darryl, but that’s not how I remember it. Perhaps Bob Brown was not the culprit and it was the party more generally, which has more than its share of excitable young enthuasiasts. I’m thinking in particular of the talk that they might win a Senate seat in the ACT – they didn’t and never will.
This appears to contradict you’re recent comments William.
I’m surprised I said that, Molotov. I probably had my wires crossed and was thinking of a second seat in Tasmania.
Good to see the Labor primary vote holding firm on 47%. But 43% for the coalition. That’s the highest it’s been all year isn’t it?
Mia could do it, over the 35 days to go.
The LNP’s actual primary vote has always come in a few points lower than the AC Nielsen poll. The ALP primary in the poll has always been close to the actual vote. There being positives for Rudd and negatives for Howard you would not think Labor would do worse than the last three elections as far as the Nielsen polls went. If the same pattern is followed the final primary votes would be something like 47/41 TPP 55.5/44.5
“Considering this is Adelaide to get 51-49 to the Tories is a good result”
No Glen, the Liberals have ruled this state convincingly for the past 14 years, and the fact that Sturt and Boothby are even getting mentioned is a terrible result. The only guaranteed seat Labor have had for many years now (excluding the abolished Bonython) has been Port Adelaide. By contrast the Liberals have had 5-6 guaranteed seats at every election, this is a very bad result.
Mornin funsters
this is consistent with the narrowing theorem thrown about by the righties
too bad it actually applies to labor narrowing in 10% swing seats
maybe 17 seats to the coalition is a tad optimistic
ps mia has this one in the bag methinks
IMHO Sturt will not fall unless a Rudd slide is on in SA as it is in QLD and in that scenario you could have JC himself stand for the Liberals and he would be beaten, along with South Who ? in Boothby- although I think now Boothby is the 4th in SA.
Over at the ABC there is a new online poll. I think they’ve managed to wedge the Tory tonkers between a Rattus Rattus and Kirribilli House.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/poll/vote/
I’m very confident we won’t know the result of Sturt on election night, unless the coalition really explodes in the last week. The fact that this electorate is so close to going under quite simply means the end is nigh for the Howard government.
Re: 58 Daniel B
Sally Reid of the Greens, perhaps?
Also I think Crikey Whitey asked a question yesterday about the youth vote in Sturt; I don’t know the exact stats, but I’d be quite certain the youth vote is considerably less than neigbouring Adelaide. Most uni students would live in Adelaide rather than Sturt. There may be some on the fringes of Sturt, and ones that live at home with their wealthy parents in the inner eastern suburbs.
So I don’t think the youth vote is the most important demographic in Sturt, by any means. Would be a reasonable number of young professionals 25-35, and a fair older population as well.
Good luck to Mia. I’ve found her performances on ABC local 891 to be very disappointing, however. The polls are narrowing in SA apparently, so it will need a decent push to win Sturt still.
Mia and Nicole both get the donkey vote.
Anyone else notice that in the paper it lists the six candidates and then Indep/Other, even though there is no other… (only 6 nominations in sturt)
More quality advertiser polling there..
from the actual paper,
Cand, total, (Male, Female)
Mia 38 (40, 37)
Pyne 44 (41, 46)
Dems 2 (2, 2)
Greens 5 (6, 3)
LDP 1 (1, 1)
Indep, other (who dont exist..) 2 (2,2)
Undecided 6, (5,7)
TPP
ALP 49
Phil – I was going to make that point. Yes, Mia does get the donkey vote in this seat and if the gap closes further in the next week it might be enough to just get her over the line.
I hope so – I have some money on her to win
Someone in the press gallery has done some research and found that John Howard has lost the last week in the last 4 elections. Even the 2004 which was a disaster for the ALP. Before this one starts its a disaster for the Liberals.
I’d enjoy Pyne losing more than seeing even Howard or Turnbull lose.
I reckon Makin will be close but Zappia gets the donkey vote there too.
Bythe way, this is Labor’s best polling in Sturt since Norm Foster won it in 1969.
ShowsOn – me too. I’m sick of being represented by a smarmy twat.
Mia has appeal in sturt being a former liberal, I like the way Rann jumped in to associate himself with her after todays poll. IMHO she will miss out because in the end she’s just another smarmy twat and no stormy normy. Ironically, the green candidate is the one with ALP pedigree. Rudd will win comfortably without Sturt, we wouldn’t want a don’s party repeat where Rudd won Sturt in lost, as Normy did in 69.
former liberal?
I C Moore either your mindlessly repeating what pyne said on radio… or your on his campaign team trying to get his (strangest yet) smear out there..
Interesting that Female voters in Sturt are more likely to vote for Pyne than Mia.
Would be interested to know the age breakdown of female voters.
I’d have young females would be impressed with Mia, though I suppose that may only be if they have a chance to meet her in person.
I guess the other issue coming into play here is the large % of older voters in Sturt – I hear Pyne’s loved by the ladies in nursing homes (no coincidence they made him Minister for the Ageing)