• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
While you keep publishing such encouraging news, William, I’m happy to kick into the tin.
Keep up the good work!
What a stinking rotten rat Brian Courtice is.
Labor’s buying the election with $30 million? I’d love to hear the figure for the Libs’ campaign spend, which according to observations here, has been overshadowing Labor on television by a measure of 3 to 1, if not much more. (And that’s not even counting all the BarfChoices tvcs).
Time to reprise Malcolm Turnbull’s statement that he knows many business bosses who are bullies.
I hate to be a dick, William, but Courtice was the former member for Hinkler, not Herbert.
William,
The ACNielson is out in the SMH with two-party preferred of 54 labor to 46 Liberal. the Australian points out that 90% was completed before the Labor launch though so it appears to be fairly fluid. primaries are 47 labor, 32 Liberal.
On Wentworth, Newhouse will be safe.My understanding is the resignation was posted and received at the office on the 2nd. That would mean the famous postal rule would apply and in law he would have resigned on the 1st even if the actual date is questioned. beyond that his intention was made clear in the letter to have resigned in October. Turnbull’s pulling out all stops.
Rowan,
that’s the postal acceptance rule from Dunlop v Higgins. There may be different rules (statutory or common law) applying in the case of the termination of a contract …
The Age have an article this morning on their election page about fake HTV cards in Wentworth. Well it isn’t really an article but it is a video link. You need to click on that to view it. In the end, they summarize several ways you can tell if your Wentworth HTV card is real or a fake. One of the ways is to turn it over and look at the sponsors. They will be printed on old paper and the sponsors are companies that don’t currently have ads with any one. One that they showed had a Sydney Oympics 2000 logo on it. Another way is that the “authorized by” words will be hard to find and if there at all, won’t be the standard authorizations. One or two mouse click buttons down after the page loads and it is on the center of the page. Possibly the EB at work here?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2007/
Hey William have just kicked into your tin, hope you get enough to keep up your sterling work.
What a f###### dog that Courtice is, a useless local member when he was there and now in a fit of pique decides to spew his bile over the campaign. May he rot in hell!
5 & 6 – yeah I don’t think the rule is the same – there are various rules about presumed date of delivery, all of which (I think) are refutable by evidence of the actual date – in this case the letter is date stamped.
I am really really annoyed at this – I live in the seat and had been looking forward to the possibility of Labor taking the seat. Labor volunteers have no doubt been working hard – and there are very many people not just Labor members) who had invested a lot of time the campaign and (in my case) emotional energy into hoping for a change of government. The seat probably won’t change things, but it is very disappointing.
Now we know that Newhouse could not even turn up for a candidates’ debate last night for “personal reasons” – they’d better be good reasons is all I can say.
Nomination for beat-up of the campaign.
Front page of the Daily Telegraph, Combet represents Charlton but lives in Newcastle!!!
It should be noted that the reporter interviewed Combet while he was drinking a flat white and not a latte.
I was talking to the Deakin campaign yesterday and they have received the funding promise to neutralise the Springvale bottleneck problem. (ithink several million)
I have pledged to help out Sunday in Deakin with a big letterboxing push. I urge all Melnournite ALP’s to do the same if you have spare time this weekend. It is definately a very big chance. Let me know and I’ll give you the details
Re 10,
Midnorthcoast Says:
Howard’s “home” isn’t in Bennelong any more, it was moved into North Sydney SOME number of years ago. DT is hypocrital with that article.
The Mad Monk strikes again, admits that SerfChoices takes away worker protection, has he just realised that, in a Eureka moment perchance?
Oh the joy.
Anyone who is unsure about this election shouldn’t be now.
From the SMH article this morning – “Mr Howard will go to the election most likely never having bested Mr Rudd as the nation’s preferred prime minister. Mr Rudd has led in this field in every poll since he became leader last December, and was ahead in the latest poll by 49 to 43 per cent.”
Labor supporters, take heart
Supporters of the other side, put your seat belts on so you aren’t injured when your plane crash lands in 8 days 
LOL the Monk totally lost it on the Today show this morning, absolutely terrible performance. Methinks Tony has given up, and like Downer last night, is venting his spleen at his perceived injustice by the Oz electorate. Nuts!
Glen Milne just called the election for labor on Stdney local ABC.
William
Australian link is not to Newspoll, but to another giraffe.
The grainy footage of Abbott fessing up to the dog that is Workchoices will be a funny reprise to “WE’RE COMING BACK!!!”
Hahahahaha!!!
Libs Ad campaign is rubbish but we already knew that
……
“Coalition’s prime targets are just not getting the message”
Roy Morgan Research has used its online Reactor – in which voters use a device similar to the one which creates Channel Nine’s worm – to indicate if election ads make them more inclined towards Labor or the Coalition.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/coalitions-prime-targets-are-just-not-getting-the-message/2007/11/15/1194766869655.html
Morning ‘Bludgers &Etc…
I don’t wish to dampen enthusiasm for the coming electoral tidal wave, but I havebeen in the habit of not taking anything the pundits say on face value, and I’m not about to change that habit.
When they say Labor’s doomed, I say “Why?”.
When they say Howard’s doomed, I say “Where’s your proof?”.
The latest “proof” seems to be an ACN poll showing Labor at 54/46 2PP. Apparently 90% of the interviews were taken before Rudd’s speech. Therefore (the common pundit wisdom says) this poll is just about as good as it gets for Howard because it doesn’t factor in positive reaction to Rudd’s speech a couple of days later.
“Positive reaction?” I hear youse say.
“Yes, positive reaction.”
“How do we know there’s a positive reaction?” you all drone on.
Which brings me back to my own personal Trust-O-Meter when it comes to the pundits. We only “know” there’ll be a positive reaction to Rudd’s speech because the pundits reckon there will be. Considering the pundits’ abysmal record in predicting outcomes so far in this election and the nine months of the phoney campaign, what they reckon isn’t good enough for me.
They’re trying to get us to swallow the idea that the Battlers, aspirationals and other slow-thinkers out there in the Howard Marginals have suddenly abandoned the habits of their miserable lifetimes and will pooh-pooh the latest Porkathon offered by the Father Of The Nation.
These people have calculators.
And they vote.
They have been brought up on the premiss that the purpose of elections is for politicians to stuff as much money into their bottomless pockets as is humanly possible, and bugger concepts like “responsibility” or “fiscal probity”. They add up one side’s promises and then tick them off against the other side’s promises. It’s a supermarket mentality, and it’s not even cynical. These people believe that not only is bribery what politics is all about, but that bribery is what politics should be all about. This is the only time in the political spin cycle that they get a chance to express themselves. It’s only now they have any importance at all, to anybody.
The Battlers are centre stage this week, they know it, and don’t take the word of the bloody pundits (who’ve been wrong all year) that suddenly Howard’s huddled masses have gone all holy and pious on government pork barrelling. It’s quite possible that Rudd’s speech, full of fiscal modesty as it was (but low on moolah for the aspos in the Western suburbs), will increase Howard’s polling figures when it’s factored in at the next round of telephone interviews.
Just because Peter Hartcher or Michelle Grattan can take or leave a tax cut or a child care freebie doesn’t mean the Hungry Ones in the mortgage belt aren’t out for the usual kickbacks from The Great Helmsman.
I feel a narrowing coming on. Suddenly I’m nervous. Just sayin’…
But Julie………..’the Narrowing’…….
BrissyRod,
Narrowing my foot
…… If he hasn’t bested Rudd on the preferred PM rating since Rudd became leader, any narrowing he gets in 8 days won’t be enough 
wow the numbers in the Australian are interesting
According to the age based breakdown of Preferred PM, it is now ONLY the 18-34s who are holding up Kevin Rudds lead.
Both 35-49 and 50+ are now at evens..
William Bowe
How much should I kick into the tin?
I believe it is important to support free thinking sites like this to maintain our independence.
Why will Rudd’s launch be well-received? Because they tell us it will be. Bill, I agree with your scepticism, as previous posts demonstrate. But I’m really getting the feeling that something’s in the air. There is a broad “vibe” that Howard is a dead man walking. He’s still kicking, but he’s got nothing left, his campaign’s been a shocker, he is continually pulled off message and is still looking for traction. I remember hoping against hope that the ALP would pull it out of the fire in 2004 but against the strong, simple message of the coalition, aand with that handshake, they had no chance.
It might just happen, this time.
“A bad boss is better than no boss”
Was what Abbott said when Work Choices was first brought in.
It summarises his and the Howards government whole lazy attitude to Australia, no inclination to try and make things better, accept what you have.
It can be seen in their approach to health, a bad public health system is better than no public health system, training, education, technology and the environment.
#23
What’s even more interesting is that Howard is not in front in any count at all, not in any state or any age group. Also Rudd’s satisfaction rating is much higher in every demographic than Howard’s.
But I do agree Mr Squiggle, a mere 26 seat ALP majority is a little disappointing at this stage.
Link to Morgan reactor here:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4244/
Clearly shows that Coalition ads are just reinforcing their own supporters, and turning away Labor supporters, while Labor ads are gaining some traction with Coalition supporters. As to Bushfire Bill, I think people are sick of the pork-barrelling; promises are forgotten about very quickly.
The other thing I reckon is that people are over the idea of tax cuts. The last decent cut was in 2000 ahead of the GST. Those people with calculators in the burbs know that 15-20 per week, which becomes five dollars less after tax, awon’t make a difference to their lives. They are also p*ssed off that any dealing with Centrelink for Family Tax Benefit often results in a staggering bill in the ubiquitious two windowed envelope because they undersetimated their annual income a year ago. Don’t the lived experience doesn’t match the much vaunted largesse of the Government. People might not be able to articulate the concepts of taxation churn but they sure know how it hits them and they’re jaded by it.
It’s on.
Govt’s $328m mega pork-barrel is the big headline on news.com.au,
Beneath that it’s ‘Gaffe: Abbott admits Work Choices protections ‘gone’
Beneath that it’s: Newspoll: ALP lead as race heads into home straight
And Koshi on Sunrise is going on about the ‘political bombshell’ re: the grants.
Got them on the ropes! Now let’s punch em for a week:P
Oh and beneath that’s it’s ‘Greenhouse worse than thought’ on news.com.
All falling Labors way!
Morgan shows Bartlett still in with a chance in QLD, but the 6th seat is really up for grabs with the prefernce deals.
However the Nats have written of Boswells chances of getting re-elected and Family First can still get in with a very low vote on the back of Pauline Hanson and One Nation prefernces.
Does it appear to anyone else that the link to The Australian in the first point goes to a story about Mike Kelly’s private school ‘gaffe’? It could just be me.
Punch, punch, punch, the gov punching’s so much fun (sung to the tune of romper room)
@ 10 Midnorthcoast Says:
Shock Horror: Jess Diaz, brother of the lovely, pouting Miss Universe 1969, seeking to represent Chifley in the Liberal interest at the forthcoming election actually lives within the boundaries of the Electoral Division of Parramatta.
the tipping point:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22768222-661,00.html
The most significant figure in the Newspoll breakdown for me was 50-50 in WA. That’s a 7% swing. Can someone tell me *why* we’re talking about Swan, Cowan and Stirling rather than Canning and Kalgoorlie?
Mr Squiggle@23 – that is not quite true. If you look at the agegroup breakdown now as opposed to the 2004 election you have (all ALP/Coalition):
2004 – 18-34: 42/40, 35-49 – 40/42, 50+ – 37/52
now – 18-34: 54/34, 35-49 – 45/43, 50+ – 44/46.
While these numbers in the upper agegroups are down from their highs a few months ago, each one still represents a huge turnaround from the last election, and must represent a large number of voters changing sides in each case.
The late move in WA is the biggest surprise of the campaign.
Enjoy the last week people. It is going to be fun.
From http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22768271-12377,00.html
“Mr Abbott today described his comments as “excellent” on the Nine Network.”
Mr Abbott, I must say I wholeheartedly agree with you on that sentiment.
How ironic the auditor-general is Ian McPhee. Howard & the dries drove another Ian McPhee, a liberal “wet”, out of the party years ago.
The ghosts of Xmas past are surrounding Scrooge McDuck.
The real tipping point is not Abott’s “gaffe” but the Auditor General’s report on the Grants Scandal. Or it should be. One third of a billion dollars tipped down the drain in order to shore up the Coalition’s vote in the run up to 2004. And the same again this time with ridiculous promises like a V8 race track for Townsville.
Bushfire Bill at #20
Are the battlers out there in Greedlands really going to be tuned in to the parties’ spending commitments as announced at their election launches? I tend to think, that like most minutiae political, they would not have (or care) a clue who has said what.
CaptainJackSparrow @ 30 – could you believe Reilly and McCabe not calling this week for Labor after today’s headlines?
- 400m in pork
- Abbott admits flaws with SerfChoices; AND
- $10bn buys you a 1% statistical bounce..
and McCabe thought this week was a win for the LNP???
Go figure. Although it’s obvious who Sunrise would like to see winning…
All the candidates are useless.
They should be forced by the party heirarchies to publicly hand in their resignations to any public sector bodies they work for, followed by a public trip to whichever embassy they need to go to to denounce their foreign citizenships.
Taking their word for it seems to be not good enough.
Abbott = GOLD.
That footage is damning. Couldn’t believe it when I saw it last night. And he continued to put his foot in it this morning by saying that people who lose their jobs can just get another one.
He’s making Garrett look like a seasoned diplomat.
That, combined with the rorts expose, is going to sink them badly.
Labor to win around 30 seats I reckon.
Apparently Trioli just had Bill McHarg, the Melbourne businessman on. And I hear he turned in a firey performance.
This campaign’s other ALP – Abbott’s Looney Performances.
Regarding the Senate figures, am I missing something or are the nationals looking down the barrel of several losses? Even assuming the polling system works against them, their vote is very low.
Wayne Swan was in good form on 774 in Melbourne.
William
Couldn’t you apply for some $$ under the regional partnerships program? You never know, you may already have been approved without even putting in an application.
I put some money in your online busker’s tin. Hope it helps.
Maybe you should use what you get to stick on a few bets. Something like Mitchell or Bradfield would be fun.
Labor should just stick to the tactics that have gotten them to this position: remain positive, point out that their promises are affordable (unlike some people’s) and meanwhile screen ads repeating Abbott’s comments. They prove everything the unions have said about Workchoices are right, hence yes they are gold.
Some interesting things in the Newspoll breakdown today:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768219-2,00.html
* That the ALP has suddenly had a surge in support in Victoria. Unfortunately as we all need to know it has to stay that high to actually deliver new seats to Labor. Not sure why things have turned around there recently.
* That support in the over-50s appears to be increasing for the ALP.
* That the ALP is starting to struggle in SA, and is looking at only getting half of the seats realistically up for grabs.
36
mike_f Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 8:14 am
the tipping point:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22768222-661,00.html
says it all mike_f…
Surely they’re r@#ted now.
Terrific to see the surge in support for the Greens in the ACT in the Morgan breakdown too.
Kerrie Tucker may just get there this time.
Ray Martin on Radio National breakfast pannel today:
“Every election has a goose, and Tony Abbott has been the biggest of all the geese”.
Abbot now saying the tape has been doctored.
Misty. Avoid reading articles by Dennis Shanahan. There’s no real need to worry. It’s likely that things haven’t changed significantly from state to state and it’s mostly sampling.
47 pancho
I just heard this interview as I was on my way to work. I thought it was incredibly impressive – he came across as someone with great integrity and conviction (resigned from all his jobs and directorships when he started this campaign in order to avoid conflicts of interest), and spoke eloquently about how much of the business community is far ahead of Howard on sustainability issues and are concerned that his lack of leadership is squandering business opportunities as well as endangering the planet. Virginia could barely get a word in! It will be interesting to see what effect this has in Bennelong.
The next member for Bennelong was on 2UE this morning and she was fantasmo.
That’s Italian for very good.
The cumulative Newpoll analysis:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-16nov.pdf
Looking at it Shanahan really is working hard, as usual, to create something out of nothing for the Coalition.
The ALP support in Newspoll remains at healthy levels. If the Statewide swing of 5.4% is realised in Kalgoorlie, Sharon Thiel will be within 1%. The donkey vote, plus Campbell’s absence, may get her over the line. ‘Labor View from Broome’
Bushfire Bill @ # 20.
It is prudent to be cautious but one can be over cautious.
The argument put forward by the “pundits” on the 7.30 Report last night was that the timing of the latest opinion poll was most favourable for Howard. It was mostly taken after the Liberals Launch but before Labor’s Launch. It was also before the Auditor Generals Report and Mr Abbot’s statement regarding the effect of WorkChoices on workers.
Now unless you are arguing that all these other events (ie the Labor’s Launch, the Auditor General’s Report and Abbot’s pronouncement) are negatives for the ALP then all things being even this is the best that Howard can expect.
I would have thought that the worst that the ALP could expect in these circumstances is the continuance of its lead in the polls.
William, I threw in a few dollars. Thanks for the site.
The cumulative poll still shows a wipeout for the Coalition… on my calculations it’s not unreasonable that the ALP could win up to 98 seats on those figures.
For the Coaltion to be in with a chance they need to hope for more than a narrowing. They need to hope the polls are just plain wrong.
As the results on the night will be stagered, once they start counting at 6pm in NSW, Vic, Tas, if it looks like 7 or more then we are home.
then the automatic 3 kick in in SA giving us 10 and then we just need another 6 from Qu, Nt, and WA.
I can’t see us missing out and this Auditor general reoport has now given all the government friendly press to jump on board and not look like a goose for just switching sides. they will be destroyed.
JULIA Gillard has hit out at Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey after he admitted Australians are being confronted with “take it or leave it” AWAs.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22744455-5013964,00.html
Abbott was just copying Hockey when he said workers could leave their present job and get a new one if they didn’t like it. Hockey said exac;ty the same if they didn’t like the AWA presented to them they should get another job.
Both Hockey and Abbott speak of the govt’s deregulated approach.
Deregulated is just another word for lazy, it means a free for all and no rules, regulations to administer. It means the Ministers can sit back and do nothing.
How many swingers are going to roll into the booth intending to vote Labor, then change their mind for the old, “trusted” libs at the last minute. Tell me I’m worried for nothing.
Scaper @ 24, if you’re still wondering, it’s usually $20.
William this site is fantastic, extremely addictive, extremely informative, and the best damn fun that anyone can have in an election campaign.
I will chip in too. I would love to meet some of the great minds of this site. We should use code “nuntucket sleigh ride” if we run into fellow bludgers.
LTEP @ 65
It is dillusional to think that the polls will translate into the equal loss of seats.
This is going to be close because Labor has a lot of seats to make up to win government.
I’ll be happy that we will have a majority of one but at best I think it will be a majority of 5
What will take away from our win will be the lunatic left fringe of the Greens controlling the Senate
The pork-rorts affair is just another nail in the coffin for the coalition, we won’t get any movement from it just it will help cement those ’soft-Labor’ voters. This is a sign of how complacent this government has come, and they can’t take the high moral ground saying ‘Ros Kelly used her whiteboard’ because that was over a decade ago.
BTW, anyone see that before the last election there was over $3m in regional grants awarded within 51mins an hour or 2 before the government was to go in to caretaker mode? Talk about rorting!
I’m going to make sure my partner sees all this. He is still leaning to the Liberals.
Another of Abbott’s, Hockey’s and Andrew’s favourite sayiong about Work Choices was that employees could trust employers to do the right thing by them.
It is on par with Greiner when he removed the need for used car dealers to provide a warranty, Greiner said “consumer would work out which dealers were trying to sell them a dud and avoid them”.
tdt – there will be a few, but not many.
This is so ‘reverse 1996′.
Misty,
LTEP is right. Dennis struggles mightly with understanding the concept of sampling error and then gives up and falls in line with the talking points memos he receives from his handlers. The SA number is probably an outlier one way. Victoria the other way.
The ongoing SNAFU at police command in Victoria and continuing nightmares with DOCS cases in NSW would be good material for a “see what labor governments can screw up” narrative. But, it’s not clear if the Libs still have a grip on that thread. Abbott would normally be the point man on that but after his recent form, well, yikes.
Misty said
“* That the ALP has suddenly had a surge in support in Victoria. Unfortunately as we all need to know it has to stay that high to actually deliver new seats to Labor. Not sure why things have turned around there recently.”
Not sure if the vote in Vic did decline and then has risen. I suspect there were a couple of samples that had Vic at the low end of the MOE. I think this pick-up is just mean reversion.
I still think Victorian, bless them, will produce the highest 2PP vote for Rudd.
How dare people criticise Greg Combet?
This man has sacrificed heaps and graciously deigned to give up the nice cafe lifestyle of Melbourne to come to Newcastle, and now people dare to criticise him for choosing a nice million dollar beachside home rather than live in the electorate?
I say phooey to them – poor bogans from Charlton are lucky to have a man of pure crystal to represent them, I hear he is even planning to distribute christmas hams and turkeys to the serfs in the main strip (The Esplanade) after the election. These people should be grateful not critical.
Just chipped in my $50 because this site rocks – I plan to lurk here for many elections to come.
With Williams blessing (if he so desires) and assistance I am also happy to give anyone who kicks into the fund to keep the site going a lovely orange t-shirt.
Of course it comes with a catch – they are emblazoned with the ‘Your rights at work – worth voting for’ slogan. Also in my office are badges, stickers, pencils (ideal for filling in voting slips) etc. All of which I am happy to provide as long as people wear them on the big day or over the next few days to promote the cause.
The numbers on some of these things are limited, but I have at least 20 of them sitting in front of me now, in various sizes.
With Workchoices consistently being raised as a big issue, a sea of orange may just keep the nervous nelly voters honest on the day!
Hmmmm, if we can trust people to “do the right thing”, then let’s do away with police, regulatory bodies, treaties and defence forces. Anarchy! What a dumb line for the Liberal goons to run.
ACNielson are the masters:
1998 average of last few polls was about ALP 51 – result ALP 51
2001 average of last few polls was about ALP 48 – result ALP 49
2004 average of last few polls was about ALP 47 – result ALP 47
2007 average of last few polls likely to be about ALP 53-54 – result ??
ACN was the only major poll to predict Labor’s poor showing in 2004 properly. That doesn’t bode well for Team Rodent.
It seems absurd that Labor can do any worse than 52 from here.
Did someone say they have put the latest Newspoll figures into Anthony’s seat calculator?
What was the result?
Edward St John;
I ask for the second time. Where is your blog on the Australian?
Abbot’s strategy is an interesting one – increase his prospects of becoming opposition leader by reducing the field in the post-election leadership ballot. He must fancy his chances against Tuckey, Downer and Bishop B.
thanks jimbob, where can I pick them up from? Put me down for an XXL t-shirt
According to ABC Radio: internal polling in North Sydney is worrying Joe Hockey.
Wow!
SMH is having a laugh at Abbott with this photo now accompanying the story!!!
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/08/28/abbott24806_wideweb__470×289,0.jpg
BrissyRod at 81:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=6.7&nsw=4.9&vic=10&qld=10.1&wa=5.4&sa=7.4&tas=4&act=4&nt=4&retiringfactor=1.5
Asanque,
I didnt think anyone here read the GG? Are you a closet reader? You just need to look more closely if you are unfamiliar with the site!!!
Was Abbott’s comment jocular?
He is apparent both alert AND alarmed!!!
This may or may not be illegal under the Anti-Terror (Fridge Magneting Our Way To Victory) Act 2003 (Cth).
Re Joe Hockey being worried – great to hear!
The treeware version of the SMH has a letter from a North SYdney Young Liberal urging voters to punish John Howard if they so wish, but don’t blame everyone on the team.
Of course as Minister for IR, it’s a hard line to run that people annoyed by Workchoices shouldn’t blame you.
Ha ha, BV! I sure hope the Mad Monk is well and truly medicated on election night
I can just see him lumbering into the tally room and foaming at the mouth unless he pops some pills!
Here it is:
http://www.smh.com.au/letters/?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Ten years or so back I attended Joe Hockey’s first fund-raiser when he decided to enter federal politics. At the time I thought he was too young and inexperienced. Those 10 years have turned him into a worthy representative for the people of North Sydney. You might not like John Howard, but why throw out the whole team when there are plenty of younger, experienced and hardworking replacements coming up through the ranks? Why change the entire government and risk electing a group of inexperienced and unproven politicians simply because you might be disenchanted with the actions of one soon-to-retire leader?
Mark T. SmithLiberal Party Member Neutral Bay
Samuel – that historical AC Neilsen data is very reassuring.
Here it is:
letter
Sorry – still learning HTML
Just realised (probably the last one in the world) that you can manually enter swings of more than 10% in the url on Antony’s site.
What fun!
Has anyone noticed that the $328M bribe to keep the Rodent in power is almost the same amount as the $300M bribe to keep Saddam Hussein in power?
‘Oh Contrair’ as Dolly downer would say embarrasing everyone, I like Dennis the menace Shanahans articel today…
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rudd_faces_down_sharks/
I partic like Gerry from Mullums comments….;)
81 BrissyRod
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=6.7&nsw=4.9&vic=10&qld=10.1&wa=5.4&sa=7.4&tas=4&act=4&nt=4&retiringfactor=1.5
George Newhouse pulled out of this morning’s SKY telecast in Bennelong.
David Spears on ABC radio in Sydney salivating over Turnball being reelected in Bennelong.
Rudd and the Rodent both in WA today.
Edward St John:
Please be more specific and link to your actual blog.
Correction: I meant to say SKY telecast in Wentworth.
68 – tdt: Beacause a lot of those people have been wooed by Howard. Now they know he’s going, and they see Costello, who’s as popular as the proverbial in an elevator.
Lastly, they know about Work Choioces and what it has done to their conditions and entitlements.
Those are two large differences which I can identify.
Thanks PP – you are a champ!!!!!
I should of mentioned that I will mail out the shirts, that’s why I will need William to act as an go between, if he collects people’s addresses for me and flicks them on then I will stick the stuff in the mail.
BrissyRod@81
BrissyRod @ 81
Possum’s saying 99 ALP seats on ACN swing.
WhoGivesaRats @ #63,
I can see your point.
In the best of all possible worlds Rudd’s speech should have been appreciated for the responsible statement that it was. The auditor General’s report should be compulsory reading for every citizen. And Abbott was foolish to advise disgruntled employees to just get another job.
But this isn’t Best-Of-All-Possible World. This is Howard World.
In Howard World politicians who shovel pork at the Battlers are admired and voted for. So scratch Rudd’s speech plus the Auditor General’s Report. In Howard World, you really do tell the boss to get f*cked and get another job. In Howard World the instant gratification is here and now, while the good vibrations down the track are for people who can afford to wait for them.
It’s just that the pundits have been so wrong, so often, on so many accounts that their opinion is the last thing I’d rely on.
Not sure if you guys visit the Daily Flute, but there’s some real analysis purlers there. Today, there’s a comment about Shamaham’s latest:
I nearly forgot to read Dennis Shanahanahan’s silver lining to poll results that give the ALP a 40 seat majority, and there’s a couple of crackers:
“A special analysis of Newspolls conducted exclusively for The Australian reveals John Howard and the Government inching closer in NSW and recovering from a black hole in South Australia.”
Inching? Like a maggot inches towards a sheep’s bum? Hardly a march towards a fifth term.
And even though this special and exclusive analysis of state by state breakdowns show the mother of all whoopings, we get:
“But Labor figures continue to warn that the election will be closer than suggested in the national published polls because of state and regional differences. Coalition strategists are adamant the election will come down to a seat-by-seat fight on November 24 as Labor seeks the 16 electorates it needs to win government.”
Ooh, the tension.
http://www.dailyflute.com/
jimbob save the postage if you are in Melb i will come and collect. if not i have dionated and william please feel free to pass on address to JimBOb
William,
I’m picking up well over a grand from Centrebet thanks to Ross Daniels taking Ryan off the Liberal uberpratt Michael Johnson with an 11% swing (if you all think Pyne is the uberpratt, that’s just because you haven’t seen enough of Johnson
).
So, have advanced a slice of that to Pollbludger today and would ask that everybody who lives in this blog and loves it do likewise.
Whoops, I put this in the other thread instead of this one:
Someone in the press gallery has done some research and found that John Howard has lost the last week in the last 4 elections. Even the 2004 which was a disaster for the ALP. Before this one starts its a disaster for the Liberals.
Newhouse seems to be doing everything in his power to sabotage Labor’s chances in Wentworth. He has been disappointing and mealy-mouthed throughout the campaign, and I have no idea what he has to offer Parliament and the people. Quite frankly, even though I desperately want a Labor government (and will still vote ALP in Wentworth) I would prefer Turnbull to win the seat. I want small-l liberals in the Liberal party to dilute the effect of the Abbotts, Andrews etc.
oh oh I see my paypall adress is still in London, Jimbob i am at centaur_007@yahoo.com. I will give you the details. I would like lots of pens/pencils for my booth too. It might work a treat.
Mr Courtice will be remembered by history, if he is remembered at all, as a miserable traitor to his cause and to the party which placed him into Parliament. Even Billy Hughes will be more kindly remembered by the ALP. What a waste of air Courtice is.
Sports Acumen now has the Coalition at $3.75, ALP $1.27, compared to $3.60 for coalition at 9am.
Lindsay voter Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 9:20 am
Scaper @ 24, if you’re still wondering, it’s usually $20.
Thanks, and I’ll throw more in for beer money
William, I use a hosting company that provides 5 TB of band width you should never get any extra charges. Its a good one, contact me if you want further information.
Albert Ross@57
Albert, do you have a link/reference for ‘The Mad Monk’ claiming the tape is doctored. I was there, and he said it, amongst other things. Plenty of other people there as well, maybe about 100 or more.
Geezuz, even Samantha Maiden is starting to take notice……I wonder who drew her attention to it?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/spincycle/index.php/theaustralian/comments/little_fight_left_in_dispirited_incumbents
Thanks everyone for the links to Antony’s calculator.
Very big swings in places. I usually take 2% off the ALP – but this still puts Labor in an election winning situation.
My prediction is revised to 81 seats.
Yes Benedict arnolds are always remembered. They come from a long line judas, benedict himself, Dr Smith 9from lost in space), Gavin o’cconor etc.
I hope daniel ecuyer wins in wentworth. More Savvy and sensible than the lot of them.
It might be better if Newhouse pulls out of the race and the Greens candidate goes up against Turnball.
119 – Observer, he said it to John laws this morning on 2ue.
As much as it might annoy you, give Laws a call and tell him Abbott is telling prk pies.
Can you share with us what other delightful messages the honourable Minister shared with the audience?
123 – I think Turnbull might hold on. The demographics still favour him.
Newhouse seems to be a disaster.
Are you suggesting an election night mirror?
I think Labor is hiding Newhouse in order to prevent him from saying anything controversial or “off-message” – they want to set the agenda for every day without any unwanted distractions.
I hope those mumblings about North Sydney are true. That’s where I put my free $100 bet. at $7. hmmmmm……
Bushfire Bill @ 20 & 108
I share your cynicism about the motives of many voters, and I think most of us share your apprehension about taking a Labor victory as a given just because the “experts” predict it. We’ve been close before ….
But what does give me encouragement is that the Coalition strategy of bribing the elctorate to its eyeballs is wearing thin. It’s transparent pork barrelling, causes resentment (people do realise it’s THEIR money, not Howard’s and Costello’s, therefore it’s proof they’ve been overtaxed) and they’ve begun to wake up to the cycle of tax cut – rate rise – tax cut – rate rise etc. They’ve also noticed that the feeding troughs are wheeled out just before each election – meanwhile our hospitals and public schools are starved etc etc.
I know the polls aren’t the same as voting day, but those which followed the last big budget giveaway – which won plaudits from the “experts” – well, we’re still waiting for the bounce! There was no popular reaction then, the polls have been remarkably consistent, and I don’t believe the latest promises by a man to whom the public is clearly tuning out are going to make much difference now. Howard smells of death.
Word has it that Tony Abbott is on the Labor Campaign payroll
Yeah, on double pay as well.
So continuing Lefty E’s question from a previous thread, apart from the Brisbane City council, are there any major local governments in Australia where the Liberal Party runs endorsed candidates?
ShowsOn: He isn’t on double pay, they got rid of that when they gave him an AWA under SerfChoices
LOL, this morning on the Today show Abbott was proud of what he said, but he’s had a change of heart now and is denying it claiming Labor doctored the tape. What a tool lol.
Abbott accuses Labor of ‘dirty tricks’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092647.htm
Poor Tony Abbott. He now claims a sneaky video made him say things he did not say. I wonder if this cute defence could stand up in a court of law?
I’m sure we will see a flurry of Libs running for local council elections now.
Youtube humour: Kevin 007 – The Man with the Golden Jaw:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzZrHDHVEVw&eurl
Poor Abbott is just positioning himself (trying badly though) to be in a slightly better light after the election loss: “see, see the video of me? I didn’t really agree with everything we were saying about WorkChoices… sorta… kinda”
Maybe the drag queen, ‘Pauline Pantsdown’, could become ‘Toni Abort’ and string together words like the infamous ‘back door man’ song.
Abbot’s just showing he’s better than Howard.
It took Howard a full day to say “Sorry” – “No I’m not.”
Abbot can do it in a few hours!
Off topic for just a sec but the Herald Sun in Victorias has finally become the comic book many people thought it was. The current dramas in the Vic police have been has been explained via comic strip panels in todays edition. Perhaps all news can be presented this way from now on?
Is this dumbing down taken to extremes or a very practical way of explaining important issues?
Good grief Abbott is desperate. How has it been edited? It is plain as day!… You can’t even catch the Tories on tape nowadays without them trying to wriggle out of what they have said….
I hear there are a lot of libs applying for the presidents position at the Nar Nar Goon Yellow Bellied Parrot Appreciation Society
ESJ@77. I’ll pay that one – pretty funny. Newcastle is the heartland though – Abbott would probably win anywhere thereabouts if he said he was a Labor man. Combet will record a massive vote.
William, now you know that your website is almost exclusively read by ALP members (except me).
Where do they “hide” Labor candidates? Is there like a big “secure” facility where they feed them and water them?
Yes Martin – Im starting to wonder if the answer is no: the Libs (qua Libs, at least) dont control any local governments in the entire nation.
Which would mean, I believe, the Liberal Party flagship representative will be a lame duck Brisbane mayor who doesn’t control his own council.
It doesn’t get any better than this.
There’s plenty of posters here who aren’t ALP members Howard C. Note there’s a difference between supporters, people who might preference them and members.
The same place Andrew Southcott hides.
ESJ,
I suspect that they place them in the same facilities where the Libs hide their more ‘troublesome’ ministers (Andrews, Nelson, etc). It’s more economically responsible…
BTW, while LTEP and Howard C are talking about ALP members, I have to say my status on this has changed. So I’m being upfront now; I applied to join the Kooyong Branch of the ALP. So yes you can now call me a hack if you want.
Yes Edward (146), it’s right beside the “secure” facility holding Downer, Andrews, Nelson and, between escapes, Abbott. Don’t they wish Abbott was there now.
8 days till the Labor tears
Coalition will rule for years!
Value!
Yes, I’m a (recent) Greens member myself.
However, Ive made it perfectly clear I wont ever hand out HTVs for them unless they pref ALP. Frankly, if they even handed me an “open ticket” i’d tell them where to shove it.
My sense is about 75% of Greens feel the same way.
I’m definitely not an ALP member, however, I will always preference the ALP before LNP.
Laurie Oakes, in the latest treeware Bulletin is advisng the coalition to run with the message “Don’t Vote labor because they’ll get rid of Workchoices.”
Oakes thinks his idea is exceptionally daring and their last chance.
8 days till the Labor tears… of joy
Coalition will rule for years… in their dreams
Oh the humanity!!!
There are a handful around Victoria, which ones exactly I can’t tell you.
I think Glen Eira, Knox and Geelong off the top of my head.. but I could be wrong.
LOL, GB,ShowsON, Swing Lowe,
Yes just why are there so many vegetables in politics on both sides? In Singapore the entire cabinet have doctorates (and in real topics too not Kylie Minogue studies).
As a certain powerbroker said to me years ago “You dont want too many chiefs, Indians are very important”
I guess I should have recorded the proceeedings. But I was stuck in amongst a bunch of Tories and didn’t want to draw to much attention to myself, especially if I was recording the session. If the entire proceedings were recorded then it would be a real opener for many people on the basis of what the likes of ‘The Mad Monk’ says when he thinks he is amongst his ilk. They certainly had a good stacking to the meeting. And I’ll say it again here, ‘The Mad Monk’ said that ‘if a person is in poverty it is by choice’, such a comment is reprehensible.
I know it’s a poxy online poll but this at the Age.
A week out from election day, have you decided who you will vote for?
Yes – 98%
No – 2%
Total Votes: 2487
Oh dear Laurie… I honestly have been hearing that message loud and clear for months. Remember that econtech report? Oh wait… that wasn’t the Liberal Party… it was the Business Alliance (or whatever they called it).
Ok then… remember their dire warning on interest rates should WC be abolished? Really silly stuff Mr Oakes.
Lefty E @ 147 – it could well get better; Greg Rowell has a good chance in Brisbane in (I think) March.
I wouldn’t trust an age online poll, red wombat. Being a left-leaning publication, it’s readership would have long ago decided to vote out Howard.
I joined the ALP while in London after watching that Tampa rorte from a far. I was disgusted and then I heard that ‘always wear sunscreen song” which says join a political party. Lol, but it did come on the radio when i was reading the age headlines in 2001
And now after 6 years I just elected to branch exec.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
The Abbott clip is up now, about 3 minutes into the 3rd clip on the right (”Report scathing of Govt’s handling of regional grants program”).
Looks pretty bad for Mista Abbott!
Labor in power nationwide.
Libs going on a Nantucket sleigh ride.
Swing Lowe at 137
The Man with the Golden Jaw. Excellent. I hope that chick in the final scene is Therese.
157 LOL
159 ’swing lowe’ is that the rugby – oh you lost! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
LOL
RE Newspoll. WTF there’s a 5 % slump for the ALP in SA. What’s going on there that I’ve missed?
Bezhnev’s entire cabinet had Ph.D.s as well, but that didn’t help.
Our system is based around very tight party discipline. Even in the U.K. backbenchers are free to vote however they want on any particular issue, which leads to better policy instead of partisanship.
That’s my theory anyway.
There have been a few state government issues going around that probalby haven’t helped.
BUT, if Handshin is only 2% behind in Sturt, that means the swing must be 5 – 6% which is probably enough to get 4 rather than 3 seats.
I have just seen the youtube the Man with the Goldon Jaw – its great. I suggest all go and see it
How Mad Tony’s form? claiming the ALP has cut and paste his speech!
They just don’t get it: part of their lack of electoral appeal is that they’ve become such naked, contemptuous, serial public liars.
ShowsOn: I understand where you’re coming from, but just look at the USA where all the money in the world is poured in to lobbying of congress members and senators that don’t follow a party line.
All these 58s/ 59s flying around are blips, Id say, Paladin.
We’re just seeing it settle in to the realistic (landslide) territory of 53s: with a 50 low in WA and a 55 high in Vic.
ShowsOn @ 172. Thanks, but Iemma in NSW isn’t exactly helping either and there’s no collapse there. I’m starting to get worried. This is 5% on primaries FFS. There’s been very little resources from the ALP go into SA. Time for a reverse firewall I say and start splashing the cash on marketing.
172 – ALP are being creamed in SA and elsewhere.
Howard to win by maj 12
Albury City has three Liberal councillors and one de-facto one out of nine, but they imploded over 12 months ago and have now been comprehensively side-lined.
I’m sure that Campbell never thought that he would reach such heights in the Liberal Party, especially without actually moving out of local government.
Yeah hay ….. Shananhan published my comment on his article today
….
“The coalition lost the chance to claim the economy as their stronghold when Howard couldn’t keep his promise from the last election on interest rates. Wake up and smell the coffee, Dennis. “
True, but at least it means at elections the members have to argue about what they PERSONALLY acheived during their recent term.
They can’t just say “I’m part of a government that kept interest rates low”. Voters want to know what bills they sponsored, what policies they implimented.
I think placing that burden improves the average, I don’t think it makes EVERY politician good.
At least we don’t have career backbenchers like Alan Cadman and Trash Draper.
“Don’t Vote labor because they’ll get rid of Workchoices.”
You could add to that
“Don’t vote labor because they will not allow Nuclear Power stations to be built in your area”
or
“Don’t vote labor, they are going to bring in broadband for everyone and computers for kids”
Or “Don’t vote labor they are going to offer more scholarships”
Warming to my theme: I guess *technically* its still possible the senior Lib would be the Senate President if the ACT Green doesn’t get up; at least till next July.
But the numbers look good for the ACT Green. Very good indeed.
Oh I don’t know, The BCC elections are coming up
National = jolly good choice for Australia
Labor = bit of a waste of time really
The paper version of the SMH has the article on the polling on the right front of the main page under the headline “This man is one week from oblivion” and a picture of Howard with a very downcast face
Where’s the Oakes article?
tdt, that’s roughly my final prediction as well. I’ll have an article posted on Fair News in the next few days. I have some minor adjusments to do from the latest cumulative Newspoll first. Nice to know I’m going to be agreeing with Possum.
Surely Laurie Oakes suggestion was tongue in cheek?
To add to Arbie Jay’s slogans
“Don’t vote labor because wages will always be lower under Workchoices”
Just on Channel 7 coverage:
while not overly impressed with reilly, that McCabe has got to be “jocular”
she has called a couple of weeks for the coalition that clearly they didn’t “win” – this week and last week. on the previous occassion she kept referring to the “garrett” gaffe….apparently that overwhelmed the RBA…obviously the government planned to have an interest rate during their campaign, helen…as peter costello told (not) jon faine….
and these people are paid?
if the polls hold and Labor is elected, she deserves a special place in the gallery of journalist jokers…
dennis shanahan (fake car story)
caroline overington (harassment of candidate)
mccabe….just plain dumb
again, i hope there will be some reasoned analysis of just how poorly the public have been served by the MSM….and its been a constant for much of howard’s reign, with their failure to demand any accountability re AWB just the most egregious example…
DfA 179:
And they run as endorsed Liberal candidates?
Labor is advertising that they will get rid of Workchoices and Laurie wants the Libs to help Labor’s campaign? Amazing.
178 Uh, ALP is still ahead. Do you need a screen reader?
I’m just saying that I don’t think ALP should just assume everything is in the bag in SA. They’ve got 3 in the bag and I want 5 (Sturt & Grey. Botthby would have been if wasn’t for Cornes)
That state by state breakdown bounces around a lot. Look at Victoria which has gone 47 – 52 – 50. It is doubtful that there was actually that big a change in 4 or 5 weeks.
On those S.A. figures Makin, Kingston, Wakfield are gone for the Libs, the only contests left are Boothby and Sturt. The Sturt poll in the paper today says Labor are still in a chance with getting one of those two.
Julie, get your head out of the sand.
193 – please don’t feed them. Then they go away.
Coalition gain Port Moresby
All promoting WorkChoices would do is reinforce the Liberals’ base, it wouldn’t win swinging voters, hence it would be an admission of defeat.
After ALL those WorkChoices adverts, it would be commical seeing even more.
187
The 20 Nov treeware version of The Bulletin. Oakes is basically saying that the Coalition are stuffed. Liberal strategists are comforting themselves with the thought that at least economic mgmt is at the forefront of the campaign coming in to the last week. Hence the irony of his desperate strategy message.
“But it is less their issue than it might have been had Swan proved the weak link Costello so confidently predicted.”
Only if you get the sand out of your head.
There have been some truly amazing feats of journalistic bias/idiocy during this campaign. This has been the most interesting/annoying aspect for me.
The ALP has been on message.
The Coalition has been on the nose.
The press pack has been on LSD.
I’m glad to see Edward appreciates people with doctorates. We could even be friends.
coalition 12% clear in bennelong
ALP = LOL
I often see some folks on here dredging up past quotes from people on the site who have said something a bit foolish.
I’d like to see us compile a list of classic *journalist* quotes from the year. Maybe Possum or someone could then pop them up on their site so the general public can admire the stupid things that some journos have come up with.
How about: “20 to 1: Ridiculous comments by political journalists in 2007″.
I’d be willing to put some money on Shanahan coming in at no. 1.
The Libs have spent millions of OUR money, as have business groups, trying to sell Workchoices. No change to the polls. What makes Laurie think it will work now?
Bushfire Bill (20) I’m a little with you on this. I’m not popping the corks yet.
However, it is worth noting that the demographic you mainly refer to – the so called “battlers” – deserted the coalition the moment Howard attacked their job security, pay and working conditions with work choices. Yes, they have calculators and they can add up, but even they – as dopey and cynical as some of them are – know that what Howard has taken from them far outweighs anything he is now promising (not to mention their underlying fear that he would take workchoices even further if he got back).
I believe that workchoices was Howard’s most fundamental mistake. It rippled through all layers of the electorate and for the battlers in particular it was a deal breaker. The constantly high Labor primary vote all year (again, 47% in the ACN poll) shows that these lost votes have never returned to Howard, whatever he has promised. And he has promised plenty before this latest lot.
Having said that, he has certainly gone right over the top this time – his desperation knows no bounds – and I will be very relieved to finally see the end of him in a week’s time.
ave it 07: coalition 12% clear in bennelong
Huh? Where did you hear that?
Surely The Australian’s headline “Howard checks Rudd’s march” would have to feature pretty high up the list.
It was a real “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman
Ave it 07, it’s amazing just how out of touch you can be living so far away. You are in your own fantasyland. Only a miracle can save John Howard
207 – i made it up
ave it 07: or is this your happy vision of how election night will turn out?
So Ave it 07, are you Shanahana-scares-your-nana or Overthetopington?
all – lol
Remember when ALP were ahead in the polls last time and still lost
You are all SCARED
It was un-Australian. He didn’t realise that we all want a growing economy, but we don’t want an Americanised Labor market system. We don’t need it, our economy grows using enterprise bargains.
I wish we could have one more decent Galaxy poll on Bennelong next week before the election.
Just to really watch Howie squirm.
There’s some competent fisherman and some pelagics with big hungry mouths on this site!!
Ave it 07, I hope you’ve contributed to the upkeep of this website, given that your are purposely posting such silly messages.
# 145 Howard C Says: November 16th, 2007 at 10:47 am
I’m not, nor have I ever been, a member of the ALP or of a union.
No, I’m worried that a poll may Maxine ahead, which could lead to a sympathy vote.
Ave it@210, you cons are in good form today.
Makin will be close.
Martin B @ 191. Last election was the first time that there were endorsed candidates in Albury City for decades. There have always been people commonly known to have been backed by one party or the other but I think the Libs have really opened a can of worms here now.
The reason for this is that the NSW government, with bi-partisan support, have changed the electoral rules so that to get an above the line spot you have to lodge a ticket with (if I recall correctly) a minimum of five people, where it used to be only two. This obviously helps the party organisations at the expense of local groups who might not be able to get five people willing to appear on a ballot.
ShowsOn — you think so? I agree that Max would probably still be ahead, but I don’t know about a sympathy vote. I think it might have the opposite effect as more people jump ship…
Phil Robins, you may be correct but we haven’t seen any evidence of that yet. It certainly hasn’t come through in polling.
Most people say the bandwagon effect increases the margin, but my worry is that for a P.M. it would be different.
To answer my own question, yes, and I see that endorsed Liberal condidates run in many local government elections in NSW.
However the Libs don’t even have the numbers (in their own right) on the Woolhara Council (7/15), and don’t seem to run endorsed candidates in any of the North Shore councils, so I suspect that don’t have a majority in their own right on any council in NSW.
220 – its all about the optimism!
See you tomorrow GN (in London)
Somone on Radio National’s Bush Telegraph says McGauran’s seat of Gippsland is in play. Compere said: “Gosh …”
No 314
What is un-Australian is the recalcitrant bloggers here who are opposed to reform.
Workchoices was a necessary reform and really the proof of its success is in the pudding.
You can’t ignore the macro figures forever.
ShowsOn (214) Perfectly stated. Workchoices IS “un-Australian”. It is totally at odds with the history and culture of this country and I still find it amazing that Howard did not understand that.
One thing is for sure. If the Liberals go down in a shower of shit next week – as seems very likely – it will be a long, long time before any Liberal prime minister ever tries it again.
GP. WorkChoices AWAs are no more popular than pre-WorkChoices AWAs. I still haven’t seen proof it was necessary. Furthermore, if they’re so great Joe Hockey would be releasing more data on them extremely willingly.
I don’t accept that unemployment wouldn’t have gone down without WorkChoices, because it was already going down before it was introduced and can’t be put down solely to WorkChoices AWAs. We still need a lot more data to look into the effects of WorkChoices… and that data isn’t being made available. You have to wonder why.
GP you need to get your head out of your a…
Wake up and smell the coffee sweetie…LOL
To an Australian historian: wasn’t deregulation of the workplace behind PM Stanley Bruce losing his seat in 1929? I’m willing to bet that after this election something as blatantly audaciously unfair as WorkChoices is never attempted again. Two attempts – two lots of humiliations, and two PMs heads (and seats).
Ultimate Rabbit: The New Leadership.
1. Sunday, 18/11, 5pm. Newspoll done. It is still 55/45 Labor way.
2. 7pm. Leak to Coalition HQ. Crisis meeting.
3. 9pm. Press conference called at Kirribilli House. Howard announces he is stepping down as the Liberal leader.
4. 10pm. Costello installs a the new leader with Turnbull as his deputy.
5. The New Leadership for the Liberal and one week to salvage something because there is nothing to loose.
Dont laugh, it could happen.
No 231
The ultimate absurdity of the ACTU campaign has been revealed in any case. The sky has not fallen, real wages have grown, unemployment has decreased, as has productivity.
No 232
Suffering from foot-in-mouth syndrome, Mr Hunt?
re Bennelong: the voters will soon be getting the message that they are no longer voting for a prime minister if they haven’t already figured that out.
So I doubt there’ll be much inclination to vote in a beaten leader who’ll hand them a by-election quick smart.
Nup, this last week seals his fate. Maxine has been a nose in front for months, and now the tired old nag will fall over before the finish line.
Workchoices was grade a shite from day one. Every progressive voter, every environmentally concerned voter, every wage slave owes a great deal of thanks to the union movement and the ‘your rights at work’ campaign for doing the groundwork to get this noxious government thrown out.
Of course Labor has pretty much adopted WorkChoices in its WorkChoicesLite policy program so not much will change in that regard.
Howard loves calling many progressive social causes “un-Australian”, well that flakey term should be thrown back at him, becuase WorkChoices is the most un-Australian policy of all time.
McGauren should be in trouble, he is the thickest front bencher in parliament.
No GP, my name is John Hunt and not Tony Abbott , sweetie…LOL
GP (235) If you think the sky hasn’t fallen in yet, just wait another 8 days.
It seems like the LNP have activated their self-destruct sequence. Be ready for a series of implosions along the front bench.
Being on the defensive over various mistakes is a bad look going into the last week. Being defensive makes you look like a loser and certainly never wins votes.
Howard still to confront the Crean’s cor ruption allegation used with regard to the Auditor General’s report on AM. AND that will appear on TV news and radio and regardless of what he says the result will be negative.
Abbott contesting the video simply keeps the issue alive a bit longer – well done.
Coming into the last week the general impression will be of a tired Government dying and a positive Opposition rising – thats the impression undecideds will be taking into the ballot box.
No 241
Perhaps it is Peter Garrett? LOL
It must make KR and some of the more cynical Labor people laugh when they see sentiments like “Dave from Albury”, a bit like the Russian peasants who looked to the Tsar for protection.
Generic Person, me and my family have been crushed by WorkChoices, my pay has been reduced, my wife’s employment prospects were decimated and you have the cheek to say the opposite!
No 246
Keep reciting the union propaganda mate.
Well GP I’d like to look at all the figures in any case. I’m still yet to be convinced we couldn’t have achieved all of those things without removing protections for workers.
To some people, increases in real wages aren’t the world. They’d like a balance between work and social life. At my dad’s work they’ve been forced to work Saturday’s and to give up their early Fridays. I say forced because they were told to take it or leave it. In a country town they don’t have the option of going elsewhere for work (at least not easily.)
I just don’t buy into the whole idea that we’re not entitled to more rights at work. I suspect a lot of other people don’t either.
OK Snoopy just how was your pay reduced ?
How has legislation prevented your wife from being employed? Presumably if pay and conditions have been reduced more people would be offering work?
Dont be a propagandist, give us some facts?
BTW
the ALP campaign has already responded to the Oakes fantasy and Darn is spot on:
“However, it is worth noting that the demographic you mainly refer to – the so called “battlers” – deserted the coalition the moment Howard attacked their job security, pay and working conditions with work choices. Yes, they have calculators and they can add up, but even they – as dopey and cynical as some of them are – know that what Howard has taken from them far outweighs anything he is now promising (not to mention their underlying fear that he would take workchoices even further if he got back).
I believe that workchoices was Howard’s most fundamental mistake. It rippled through all layers of the electorate and for the battlers in particular it was a deal breaker. The constantly high Labor primary vote all year (again, 47% in the ACN poll) shows that these lost votes have never returned to Howard, whatever he has promised. And he has promised plenty before this latest lot”
As the ALP now says:
“Mr Howard didn’t tell us about WorkChoices
Now he says “working families in Australia have never been better off.” But penalty rates, overtime and job security have gone. Now he’s retiring anyway, so what’s the point voting for him . Sorry mate, not this time!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptzRgfYKoLk
that’s gotta hurt and perfectly timed to run off the back of Mr Abbott…
Maybe one of the local fascists here could explain why pre-SerfChoices the economy looked good, and post-SerfChoices we’ve got inflation and uncertain economic times ahead. Before SefChoices inflation was low and wage growth moderate, and now post SerfChoices a wages break out and inflation – sure was a good idea.
GP don’t you love those polls out today or don’t you read numbers?
Vote LIBS for Workchoices 2
Maybe Observer you can explain if “Serfchoices” is so bad why Labor has adopted most of it in its Orwellianly named “Forward with fairness”
Kina: if they have hit the self-destruct button, perhaps we should have people waiting outside Ministers’ offices and the Liberal HQs to see if there are boxes being moved from the ministers to the HQ. That would be like what Labor did in 96 when preparing for opposition.
No 248
There’s always more to the story. But in general most bosses are happy to be flexible if employees give enough notice. In any event, it’s not like he is working the extra day for free.
# 239 Edward StJohn Says: November 16th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Keep telling yourself that, and one day you might even believe it. Employer choice as to who represents them in negotiations. Work’choices’ gives that ‘choice’ to the employer, and if they don’t want to negotiate with a union, they don’t have to. The ALP leaves the choice about who represents their interests to the employee.
But keep talking about workchoices. Keep talking about it right up to polling day, so that no-one forgets exactly why this government is heading to oblivion.
ESJ (239) You might like to believe the fiction that workchoices will survive under Rudd, but the Labor movement will not miss this opportunity to kill it stone dead.
GP, there are none so blind as those who cannot see.
ESJ 253
I prefer the Howard Orwellian
“Australia Rising”
WTF?
“Aspirational Nationalism”
WTF?
Que?
Please explain?
Thanks EsJ… we do need to keep pushing that point home.
A vote for the coalition is a vote for WorkChoices Mark II. They’ll view a win as a mandate to CONTINUE their attack on the rights of workers.
Don’t try and kill of debate on this subject. The libs staffers don’t even mention it by name anymore it’s so toxic. You need to keep hammering away to make sure no-one forgets what’s at stake.
It seems that the Libs have given up in the western Sydney region:
Read more at http://www.wsroc.com.au/page.aspx?pid=51&vid=1&nid=93
No 258
So I’ve heard.
Just rename yourself Sharon Burrows and be done with it.
John Hunt, what about Opportunity Society?
ESJ. The union movement, which I am sympathetic to although not being a member, has done a lot of work building the anti-workchoices sentiment and that is the main reason that the illiberals will be put out on their arse. Progressives and greens should be reminded of that because none of the issues that they want to campaign on would have ever cut through with the majority of voters.
Personally I’ll just be happy to see the end of the Howard government so that we can hopefully reverse the destruction of social justice that they implemented. But I’m happy to concede that my issues aren’t the ones that will win the election for Labor.
263 Is that an Opp Shop???
GP 314
“Workchoices was a necessary reform” – like saying extreme right wing is common sense – would you say that giving 90% of power to the employee was common sense? Its like saying that ideology is common sense…that you cannot take a different position with different values outcome
In regards to unemployment, Professor Peetz’s studies show that unemployment would be the same, as we are on economic boom – if you look there are more jobs created before IR came in, so these jobs will be there afterwards. At best, if you have a far right IR strategy, then you can crush the wages of the bottom half -hence some casual working poor jobs, which is the reason they have alot of those in the US – hence the high income disparity and crime/social dislocation – other european countries have similar unemployment levels but have done that within a social democratic framework – in other words, it can be done by not crushing the wages of the bottom half – 5 hours a week, $6 an hour jobs – you cannot live on that – have to work 3-4 jobs to even think about supporting yourself..
NZ had less extreme but similar IR stuff during the 90’s – evidence is that did not create jobs -at best casual working poor – they have moved on from this.
GP: you really need to access independent information onthis – but you deliberately do not – the evidence is that AWA’s (due to the power difference) are really for the economic elites – collective bargaining works for the greater many…what I can suggest that if you were going to be doing one of these working poor jobs, you would not be voting Liberal.
People of the RIght like you take a one dimensional approach to this issue and most issues, without considering a wholistic perspective which is that we live in society, not an economy, is the reason why you will lose this election – For most people, what they will be saying is “Does 1/2 a point on the Right, outweigh 30 bad points on the Left” – the answer for most Australians is NO. Its the fact that you cannot give any merit to this is why the Libs are on the way out
No 261
Not as confused as the ALP’s land release policy which includes releasing parliament house for redevelopment.
The Finnegans @ 234
No offence but I think this is funny. It would be complete capitulation by the LNP. Don’t forget, Costello is shackled to Howard as part of the team. As far as possible, it’s in Costello’s interests to let the defeat be seen as Howard’s.
Which brings me to the question, anyone seen Costello lately? I didn’t even see him rubbish the Labor Party launch. My theory is he’s hiding in a bunker, while Howard, Abbott, Hockey, Vaile, Bishop etc self-destruct, and then when the dust clears after their defeat he’ll emerge ready to take on the mantle of the undisputed leader of the party (and Opposition).
Pi/Darn – Comrades,
You guys missed the mail obviously!
KR did the deal in all of those Perth trips talking to the business lobby back in September, yes they will throw some bones to the unions but the substance of WorkChoices will stay in place.
Medicare Gold herself confirmed “award simplification” was going to continue under Labor, right of entry, arbitration etc etc gone.
I had thought earlier in the year that JWH would win because the side of the argument opposing the unions always wins, what I missed was that the real undertaker for unions is going to be KR. He made the deal with the business elites back then , why would he revisit and sign up in government to protect a group which represents only itself and less than 20% of the workforce?
KR will rule the Labor party and government. He will have WorkChoices + some cosmetic fairness, you will see that this settlement will basically be accepted by the Liberals in opposition. Essentially this election is the burial for a 100 years of compulsory arbitration. The beauty or irony of it is that many union comrades like yourselves dont even realise you have been royally done over!
No 266
Your argument is worthless when it says we live in a society not an economy. Societies can’t exist without economies.
265 – I think actually either a retirement home or one of those ‘we understand you’ sort of banks.
Too many words there EsJ… you’ll have to tighten it up.
WorkChoices is poison for the most vulnerable. A vote for the coalition is a vote to extend and expand this legislation.
See? You really need to get ‘on message’
esj
stop your harassment of people devastated by worstchoices
come saturday week we will see who is the propogandist
Lab to win between 100-130 seats-all depends if abbott has another emission
On Ten news at 11am, Howard is going to give a major policy speech in Adelaide today talking up his economic credentials and slagging off Rudd.
What a wanker!
ESJ, the difference is that the ALP didn’t introduce an industrial relations scheme that they knew would disadvantage workers without the inclusion of a safety net, even after persistant warnings about the effect it would have.
No 272
And people criticise the coalition for scare campaigns.
Here you are trumpeting unfounded and baseless claims about an extension of workchoices.
This is rubbish. You don’t seem to understand that WorkChoices is a system purposley biased against collective agreements.
Forward with Fariness is not biased for or against collective agreements. But it is based around the FACT that most people work under union or non-union collective agreements (like 95% of people).
Most of the WorkChoices legislation is spent saying what a legitimate AWA looks like, whereas the Labor policy says individual agreements should be common law contracts.
So if you want an individual contract, the Labor policy is actually much simpler. The fact so many AWAs are failing the fairness test proves that point.
This is a simple case of ideological over reach by Howard. We are a nation of compromise, Howard should know that, he has been P.M. for nearly 11.5 years. He didn’t realise that on I.R. we don’t require a government biased for one form of agreement or another, we just need a system that lets people get on working.
GP, so you are into cross dressing. Maybe there is some hope.
ESJ and GP – I see it every day and so do my colleagues. I work in union OH&S and I see health and safety reps in smaller organisations sacked or pushed out for “operational reasons” regularly. Their crime; raising health and safety issues.
Yes I can appeal to worksafe for a s76 discrimination claims under the vic ohs act.. but there have been 2 successful discrimination prosecutions since 1985. There is no recourse to run unfair dismissal in these smaller workplaces! WorkChoices has so stacked it in the employers favour that running an an unlawful termination on this issue still make it a virtual impossibility.
# 275 Lose the election please Says: November 16th, 2007 at 11:56 am
And we all know what’s going to happen to that safety net if the libs get in again. They’re going to white-ant it just like they did with bulk-billing, if they don’t scrap it entirely because of their ‘mandate’.
@ 253 Edward StJohn Says:
Which why all prudent working folk will, on Saturday 24th November, take The Greens HTV and follow it for both the lower and upper houses to ensure this stupid and unfair law will be expunged from the statutes entirely.
So why hasn’t “Dementia Boy” fronted today regarding the grants rorts?
Mr Speaker, Mr Speaker.
Of course they would extend it, they want everyone working on individual agreements.
That is ALL WorkChoices is about, remaking the industrial relations system so it is biased against collective agreements.
It is an excellent example of federal government centralisation, a one size fits all businesses approach that we spent the previous 15 years trying to get away from.
No 279
Union hacks have no credibility.
GP our scare campaign is based on fact.
ESJ:
Nearly 1/2 the population are working under collective agreements, alot of those union negotiated – inother words, everybody takes the benefit of 100 years of Labour movement gains, but many others (who are not in unions like me) work under the better conditions and wages from union negotiated collective bargaining
IR studies, especially since the intro of W/C, its been found that out of AWA’s, collective bargaining without unions, c bargaining with unions, that the latter producers the best outcome for employees
At least Labor’s Policy puts back collective bargaining….in 100 years time, maybe when we are dead, with the death of the Radical Right, maybe there may be another IR Commission …
Stand by for the BOMBSHELL…. All is not lost for the LNP.
Tick, tick, tick
No 285
No, it’s based on a random speech at the H.R. Nicholls society which is totally incongruent with Government policy.
The only scare campaign based on fact is that 70% of the ALP is made of union hacks. They hate business, they hate the economy and they’ll be coming back over my dead body.
GP you forgot that the Fairness Test has already gutted Workchoices…… Rudd won’t make that many changes because not that many are needed.
The truly ironic thing is that, once the Fairness test is taken into account WC is not that extreme. A move to the right, yest, but not that extreme. The reason WC will spell doom for Howard is that the original policy revealed intent – and shocked the population. Can’t be relaxed and comfortable with a pollie prepared to do that around.
Pi, they will say that they weren’t aware of the red tape it would make for small business and abolish the fairness test. They will additionally say it wasn’t really needed because very few AWAs were failing to meet the ft. Using small business is a good tactic because you seem like an ogre if you oppose help for small business.
I agree that, if re-elected (not going to happen), the Coalition would *not* take workchoices further in their next term.
These guys are politicians before idealogues, which is why they are so fond of pork-barreling.
They are now very well aware of how unpopular workchoices is. I’m sure they would take it back if they could (whilst maintaining any credibility) because they must know it is going to cost them the election.
They won’t be doing it again…
GP our scare campaign is based on Workchoices 1
Hold on… you provide no evidence and “union hacks” have no credibility. LOL! Whatever sweetie.
Ha! And you do?
Now Mark Vaille thinks it is a conspiracy that the auditor general report was released during the election campaign.
Why is the coalition trying to look like a pack of arrogant conspiracy theory pissants? They should save it until AFTER the election.
No 286
bird, with respect, stop trumpeting the so-called “Radical Right” as somehow more heinous than the radical left.
Joe McDonald has resigned from the ALP and has dropped a legal challenge against his expulsion.
Oh and Unions WA are distancing themselves from Kevin Reynolds and his threat to release dirt files on Rudd & Gillard.
LTEP,
Yes I agree the Liberals made mistakes with WorkChoices. Essentially:
1) They tried to graft a decentralised system onto a centralised system which created a lot of complexity.
2) They thought they were lessening the pain of that transition through transition arrangements and the like whilst in fact increasing complexity.
3) They didnt realise in being half in and half out they gave Labor/Unions a great opportunity to play the “fairness” card which they did.
Having said that with low unemployment in much of Australia the strong economy has protected many people’s working conditions and pay much better than any legislation.
The real issue with WorkChoices is that there are many areas or pockets of disadvantage that need genuine protections but the OLD collectivist IR model just doesnt accomodate.
Much of the campaign against WorkChoices has been led by people with enormous self-interest in the IR Club. Having said that that’s politics and live by the sword die by the sword. But the substance will remain – there is no turning back the clock comrades!
“The only scare campaign based on fact is that 70% of the ALP is made of union hacks. They hate business, they hate the economy and they’ll be coming back over my dead body.”
Geez GP, I wouldn’t go for a beer with you, but I don’t want you to die! Given that the ALP is cruising to a landslide win, I’d reckon you should withdraw at least the last bit of that.
# 276 Generic Person Says: November 16th, 2007 at 11:56 am
That’s because I know what a john howard ‘non-core’ promise is. A non-core promise is a thing like a never-ever GST. A ‘non-core’ promise, is something like retaining bulk-billing in its entirety. A ‘non-core’ promise, is retaining a WorkChoices safety net. A ‘non-core’ promise is not increasing troop numbers in Iraq.
Unfounded? Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to present to you exhibit A.) GST, exhibit B.) bulk-billing, and exhibit C.) increased troop numbers to Iraq.
And so just exactly why should we expect the liberals to act any differently now than to the way they’ve continually acted in the past. Howard just has too much history of non-core issues.
Exactly. No need to stretch credibility by pretending that the Libs would shoot themselves in the other foot by making workchoices even stronger.
The current version of workchoices is screwed up enough for people to want to vote the government out.
Why has Brendan Nelson disappeared completely during this campaign?
Doing numbers presumably, though perhaps not for Bradfield!
Except for the fact the Liberal candidate for Makin is the biggest H.R. Nicholls society hack of all time.
You idiot. Unions helped build the economy. People like Bill Kelty encouraged the government to reduce the tariff wall, in exchange for social policies like Medicare and supperannuation.
If you grew up and had a less black and white view of the world you’d be able to construct more persuasive arguments.
Does this mean you are committing suicide next Sunday?
Mark Vaile is trying to bite the referee over their slush fund! My god, they have no shame, no idea, and no hope.
Vale Vaile, you deserve political oblivion.
I thought KR was weak and would be ruled by the unions? Now you’re saying KR’s running things and will “rule”?
Which is it? I wish you Libs would make your minds up.
282 Red wombat, see 274 He is going to explain his reliance on pork, nominate where the other 23 nuclear power stations are going besides Bribie Island and Port Stephens, apologise for all his inflationary tax cuts, confirm the apology over never ending interest rate rises, and apologise for his under funding of hospitals for years,
Rgee,
I suggest you start looking for another job urgently or apply for a Labor staffer job if they get in. Your union will probably be insolvent within 2 years.
No 299
The fallacy of that rather aged diatribe is that there have been three elections in the meantime, all of which John Howard won.
We don’t have a collectivist I.R. model. We have a democracy that allows collectivisation. If we didn’t, we wouldn’t be a democracy.
ESJ, I thought they were coming back?
Just about the latest Nielsen. Even the most drooling, one-eyed Labor supporters must see that this poll – which habitually underestimates the Coalition vote – has their primary at 43%, and that therefore their support has not collapsed. If Workchoices was really loathed then the Government’s vote would be much lower. What’s apparently happened is that Labor under Rudd has received a boost to its primary, but it’s clear the Government and the PM are not on the nose.
297 Edward StJohn Says: November 16th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
que? Like what? What couldn’t have been managed through a common-law contract? And so the solution to this imaginary problem is achieved by removing an employees right to nominate someone to bargain for them?
WorkChoices is poison. A vote for the coalition will be seen as a mandate to continue the legislation, just like they’ve done with bulk-billing.
ESJ – “there is no turning back the clock comrades” … I agree with you. I know in some union circles there have been discussions for a preference Reith’s 1996 Act, rather than Rudd’s proposed system.
Econocrat,
I think KR wants to have as long as possible as PM, I suspect when Medicare Gold and the others get into their limos and the like they will too – hence bye bye union movement. If you want to preserve unions vote Green like Albert Ross suggests!
The way GP replies to posts sounds very similar like Robert Candelori. I wonder if they are related? No offence intended GP, just a casual observation.
GP
Your answer misses the point to my post on IR – an economy/society are one – the are interconnected – the economic and social affect one another – you cannot separate it
You are one dimensional to the RIght GP – and the fact that you will not give an inch to other people’s good points says it all. Everyone on this site sees what you see, they just do not think that your good points outweigh the bad points..
Stephen Kaye – starting the climbdown already? Where’s your gumption! Hold the line man!
# 307 Generic Person Says: November 16th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Proof that we should expect WorkChoices mark II, eh?
ESJ (249) You just don’t get it do you? Working paople know when they are being screwed and they don’t have to prove anythng to right wingers like you. All they have to do is walk into a ballot box next week and vote this bunch of crap out.
If you want some facts and figures have a look at how the ultimate example of “workchoices” operates in the US. Their minimum wage is a pittance and hasn’t risen in years. People have to work two and three jobs just to survive. And all that in the richest country in the world. It’s a bloody disgrace.
You can protest all you like that it would never happen here, but it is based on the same ideology that underlies workchoices – an ideology that believes the more the rich get, the more they are entitled to – and the more that workers struggle, the more it shows they are not working hard enough. Sadly, in America the workers actually believe that crap. But unfortunately for Mr Howard and people like you, Australian workers can recognise a crock when they see one.
Rowan (#5) postal acceptance rule only applies to acceptances of offers – not a resignation which is the opposite. Newhouse would be stuffed if he relied on a back-dated letter. Fortunately for him there is a provision hidden in the Tribunal Act that says you automatically vacate your Tribunal post if you nominate for any Parliament.
The Liberals have advice that the Court might overrule that provision, arguing ‘nominate’ here means a valid nomination, which means no office of profit at that instant. I think they’re wrong. ‘Nominate’ here means the physical act of lodging a nomination. Otherwise the provision has no work to do. And the High Court has no reason to stretch the Constitution to override a state law about its own Tribunal.
Still very fishy that undated letter. Would love to know if it was a panic or cock-up.
Pancho,
Yes “there coming back” is the Libs line but I believe KR will be the undertaker! but hey he will be the undertaker with a smile at least!
Relax, strech your legs, walk a while, FIRE
I think the real problem with workchoices is that it makes productivity growth difficult. By implementing this deregulated system, it makes wage reduction the easiest way to increase profits, rather than producitivity increase. This is of course, problematic to long-term national productivity growth in the national economy.
So regardless of the social problems outlined above, i’m more concerned about its macroeconomic impact.
Journal of Australian political economy (www.jape.org – issue 56) has a great piece outlining this.
http://www.jape.org/component/option,com_remository/Itemid,26/func,fileinfo/id,18/
ESJ – Doubtful, people will continue to unionise no matter what. Just like your friends at the BCA, AIG, ACCI, MBA, HIA, etc. etc.
this is gusfaces better half
for those who believe workchoices is good then tell me what is good about having to go home and tell your family that you no longer have a job – put yourself in that position before u say how great workchoices are. I lost my job the day after workchoices came in. I was told that i wasn’t need anymore, that was it, not even given 1 weeks notice. I am a mother, wife, daughter and sister and I had the humiliating task of telling my family that not only was I now unemployed but that there was no money coming into the house hold for that week. to those pro-workchoices just think if that happend to u, how would u feel. I don’t know how Mr howard thinks that “Australians have never had it better” he does not know me or my circumstances. Mrs gusface
Darn,
Yes of course, but why has KR adopted it?
You should start looking for other employment too! There will be a heap of staffer jobs coming up – get out before they are all taken!
No 315
You’re one dimensional to the left, so your point is once again worthless.
ESJ, thats a good point re:Insolvency of unions – they began their decline during the Hawke/Keating years when the new economy was first put together. Unfortunately it contradicts the Unions will Stuff our economy tagline.
The single biggest problem with the Liberals this campaign is the lack of any sort of consistent narrative. The attacks have been coming from all angles and they just lack credibility.
On one hand we have GP saying the ALP hates business and the economy, and on the other we have ESJ saying Kevvy has stitched up the business community and Workchoices will basically stay. I’d suggest the two Tories on this blog are showing about as much coherence as the Liberal party war room.
Another case in point – the Nationals are running a campaign about the ALP’s ‘razor gangs’, yet the Liberals are bagging Rudd out as being a fiscal conservative in name only… Which is it people? Are they going to spend or slash?
Are we facing a Tsunami or is Howard still an optimist?
Are wages going to blow out under the ALP or will they decline like the did during 1983-1996?
Is it all a case of me too, or will the world end if Labor get in?
321 Yo ho ho Says: November 16th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
WorkChoices hurts people, and hurts the country’s long-term prospects, for a short-term gain in profits.
It is the quintessential liberal policy.
No 323
Instead of having a bitch about it, take the initiative, get educated and get another job. You’re always looking for someone else to blame instead of taking personal responsibility.
Steven Kaye
The full impact of W/c will be seen when there is a recession – it will be a double whammy when the balance of power goes back to the employer, when they already have most power.
Its the long term ramifications – most people would not be aware of the ideologically gravity of it….but they may change in 5 years time…all the IR specialists know this
Yep, did anyone notice how ill Howard looked yesterday…..he’s lost a lot of weight and his face looked drawn. He’s agitated, wounded and about to cry look at the press conference after the Labor Launch really gave him away.
I think Rudd taking the high ground on the economy and the headlines this generated has really hurt the old bugger. In the last 10 months he’s seen everything go down the drain. What was an expected lovely waltz into the history books and Liberal pantheon is now a tawdry pathetic crawl to electoral oblivion.
But as he lays awake at night one thing has consoled him…the economy. The fact that the macro economic data has miraculously flowed his way for the last 10 years has legitimised his prime ministership and acted as a firewall against the dogs breakfast of incompetance and mediocrity served up in all the areas where his government does actually exercise some control. The economy is where his legacy lies and he knows it.
So what happens when that upstart Rudd walks in and rips the mantle off him. And worse still he gets headlines like “rudd takes the economic high ground’ etc in the Murdoch media. He goes into melt down. You can criticise anything about Howard but keep your hands off the economy. If it goes, so does his whole legacy. Whats left is tampa and children overboard and AWB etc etc…Without the economy he really doesn’t have any clothes..
That i think is why Howard looked so flat and unwell yesterday. He was mortified by Rudd’s reverse wedge on the economy. Throw in the regional grants rorting and I expect him to age another decade in the next week. Can’t say i have any sympathy..
He hasn’t. He has adopted a system that isn’t biased for or against collective agreements.
WorkChoices is completely biased in favour of individual contracts.
That is a fundamental difference between the two systems.
Rudd accepting things like secret ballots for strikes is excellent, it enhances workplace democracy. But your continuous repetition that Rudd’s system is the same is a load of garbage. You haven’t even defended the claim, you just repeat it over and over.
GP – That’s just wrong mate. I hope mummy and daddy’s restaurant sold for a lot and you pick up one of those Mercs you love so much. Seriously, dude.. that was low. You ask for someone’s experience of workchoices and it is given to you and you come out with vitriolic stuff like that. Seriously, grow up.
Are you rehearsing what you are going to say to all the Liberals set to lose their seats?
No 331
It was John Howard who spruiked the idea of secret ballots, not Kevin Rudd.
So…they’re not coming back? Or is the fear campaign not based on fact? It’s all too complicated for a simple fellow like me.
ESJ – as we’ve explained before, its true the unions arent ecstatic with KRs alternative IR policy, but its a fundamental change from Workchoices.
Main difference is that employers can’t insist on 100% union coverage before collectively bargaining. Only has to be a majority of employees.
That would bring Australia into line with basic international human rights standards. Workchoices breaches these.
You’ll also find that the thousands of pages of nasty anti-union reregualtion of the workplace will no longer be necessary. This will be a simpler system.
Effectively, its a return to keating’s system – with a couple of extra bones thrown to employers.
Nonetheless, your resort to the “imitation as permanent ideological victory” trope is a gratifying general concession of imminent electoral defeat
No GP:
I am weighing both the right and left sides up GP – and then coming down with a decision, like most other people
Wow, good luck with your life GP…
ND,
You assume opinions are monolithic.
Sure I agree unions are not going to be revisiting the 1970’s – with the possible exception of the CFMEU, but if you look back at my comments my views have been entirely consistent all year.
Unions were present at the beginning – federation. There passing was always going to be traumatic. The irony is that ultimately Labor under Rudd will be the undertaker for them! It will be a mercy killing out the backyard – like a sad loyal dog being led out by the treacherous and selfish owner!
I think after 12 years Labor getting in is not going to be stupid enough to tie their fate up to the lame dog! Maybe I will be wrong on that point – but if they do they will be torn apart like Whitlam.
In many ways unions did represent part of the Australian ethos of a fair go but really what is left is sentiment, the fair go in many ways disappeared years ago – after all we dont really bat an eyelid at CEO’s who receive millions in pay (workchoices or no workchoices) do we?
No 332
I have no idea what your blabbing on about.
I didn’t ask for anyone else’s experience, I merely said that Workchoices was a necessary reform.
Thanks for that Generic Moron, but you completely missed my point.
gp
I am not blaming anyone I am putting forward my circumstances, and for your information (brethren) I do have an education and I have got a degree and I did get another job but please don’t go around with blinkers on thinking everything is ok!
mrs gusface
ps tony abbott is a knob
Geriatric Person-if you are going to prevent the Unions coming back or whatever it was you said over your dead body can you let us know when and where this sacrifice will occur? I’d like to see it. Actually I’d even pay to see it.
# 328 Generic Person Says: November 16th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
ah… what a breath of fresh-air!!!
The lack of empathy amongst liberal supporters is congenital I believe. And they wonder why they’re on their way to oblivion.
No 337
Good luck to you as well.
That aside, most other people aren’t weighing up both sides, they’re toeing th party line.
That never stops you from posting anything.
You’ll be proven wrong on Saturday week.
Steven Kaye,
Your statement that Neilsen favours Labor is incorrect. Remember that it was ACN that was the only poll to overstate the Coalition’s support in the last week before the election in 2004 (they had the Coalition up 54/46).
Mrs Gusface @ 323 has put in very real terms why the Tories are dead, and have been for a long time. Well said Mrs.
No 340
I don’t recall there being a point to miss.
That’s what you’re doing, so what the hell is your point?
My cousin used to work on the counter at a BP service station. As he approached the end of his 6 month probationary period, his boss called him into his office. He was accused of stealing Vodaphone credit from the company and immediately fired. No proof whatsoever was given of this claim. Police were not informed of the allegations.
Since then, my cousin has found out that several other people experienced the exact same situation.
Needless to say, the claims are completely untrue and unsubstantiated. Thanks to WorkChoices however, my cousin has no legal recourse.
Mrs Gusface lost her job – that’s sad.
Let me let you into a secret – people have lost jobs since we moved from feudalism to capitalism.
What does it prove about WorkChoices? Zip
GP #276,
Here’s the base of that accusation: the speech that Nick Minchin (remember him? Howard Gov’t minister) apologising to the HR Nicholls Society that WorkChoices didn’t go far enough, and pledging to them an extension of the business community supported the Coalition in for another term.
Also, the “L for Latham” campaign was the biggest scare campaign since Menzies and his “Reds under the bed” take on electioneering.
GP # 284,
Everyone has the credibility to have their words at least read – even LP trolls like you.
GP #288,
Go see Adam’s site (psephos.adam-carr.net). You will find, just inside the front page, a debunking of the LP’s absurd claim of 70% union bosses.
PS you can expect unionisation rates to rise 5% or so in 2008.
Plenty of evidence around that low-level de facto intimidation of employees has discouraged potential members joining up in the last few years. Examples include abolition of payroll deductions for new members under HEWRRS in Higher ed etc.
That means you should forget law, and study basic literacy.
Business will rue the day it ever heard of Work Choices (as Paul Keating said), because in order to get the bill up, the govt relied on the corporations power in the constitution rather than the traditional arbitration/ IR power.
In other words, instead of having to go to a neutral IR umpire like it used to, a govt can now simply legislate certain proections/ standards through the parliamentary process and get through what it wants. The High Court has said as much.
Eventually an alternative govt will get in (be it next weekend or whenever) and business/ the libs have gifted them a framework for carrying through their agenda without running it by the IRC or its equivalent.
Keep dreaming LeftyE Keep dreaming
RGee stop arguing with these Wallies and get back to work or hop in your car and go and do some work in a marginal where your time will be better spent. I think these personal attack/ debates are degenerating into a self indulgent wankfest. All the bloggers hear are committed and nothing any of can say will change a single vote.
No 341
Well good on you Mrs Gusface.
The fact that you were able to get another job is a testament to this government’s success.
328
GP who are you blaming for the Libs disastrous campaign and likely annihilation?
Someone care to take responsibility for WC, Interest Rates, Regional Rorts?
Anyone????
Good point. It means in future Labor are going to go to elections with the best I.R. based wedges – increasing the minimum wage, increasing supperannuation contributions.
The Liberals can oppose any of it at their electoral peril.
355 Spot on. the ckecks and balances have been removed for both sides. Another core Lib article of faith rejected by Howard. it worked for both sides.
GP
Bit of a reality check mate. A couple of close friends work in the public service in Canberra. Not at the top but close enough to know whats going on. Apparently it was Howard who watered down Serfchoices from the more draconian policies being advocated from Costello and most of the front bench. So if Howard goes who’s going to stop Costello implementing his radical ideology? Labor has it right when they say it will be extended … to the detriment of those unable to effectively negotiate for themselves.
And don’t forget, these laws could be in place when the next downturn/recession comes. Can’t wait to have all the serfs accepting $5 an hour rather than staving.
Oh so true Burgey The High Court Workchoices decision was a Federalists wet dream. Future Federal Governments would appear to have carte blanche.
You’re just like Glen! You think we live in the Soviet Union, you think anything good that happens to people is because of the government running a command economy.
Maybe it was because of the personals skills and initiative?
More Liberal hacks that want to be Karl Marx, will it ever end?
ESJ @ 351 – You don’t work at the coal face, comrade. Employers have been emboldened by WorkChoices, they try things on that 3 years ago they wouldn’t have dared under the WRA.
No 349
My point is that bird should stop giving me a spiel about balancing both sides of the argument, when clearly that’s not happening to any certain degree in this forum.
Btw, Ave it 07 (from way back),
The name “Swing Lowe” is a play on the name of the electorate I live in.
I’m not a Pom (god forbid), I’m just trying in a really lame way to look clever…
But you don’t even present arguments, which is even worse.
12.30 and no response from Howard on “Rural Rorts”………….coward!
No 368
Neither do you, so what’s your point?
Yay, another b*tch fight between GP and ShowsOn (and probably another half a dozen lefties on this blog) about who makes the more valuable contribution…
Can’t we talk about the Morgan poll that’s expected to come out today, instead?
I do, you just don’t understand what I write.
Instead of having a bitch about it, take the initiative, get educated and learn to read. You’re always looking for someone else to blame instead of taking personal responsibility for your inability to comprehend arguments.
Swing Lowe it’s a morgan poll.. it isn’t worth discussing
No 372
We already know Morgan has a heavy ALP bias, so it’s a worthless poll.
I’m hanging out for a galaxy.
anybody got a link to the mcharg ad for bennelong?
No 372
And showsOn continues to shove foot into mouth. Congratulations.
OK, if no one cares about the Morgan (I know I don’t), what do people think the effect will be of this?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768831-29277,00.html
Gee Serfchoices really gets you bludgers worked up doesnt it! I’ve actually never met anyone on an AWA.
I believe the Sunday Mail chain have different editors to their daily sister papers. Does this mean we will start getting papers endorsements on Sunday? This would be very illuminating!
The placeholder is up on Morgan’s site. It only says “Fed vote” currently…
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
I can’t believe that you guys are still arguing over Work Choices just 8 days out from the election.
G.P.,
Why are always so angry? You’re so critical of this blog but you keep coming back.
William,
I think you deserve some pocket money for having to put up with all this petty bickering from both sides.
Diogenes @ 378,
All the Sunday papers should come out with their own endorsements separate to the daily newspapers. Their endorsements should come out on election day itself…
377 SL
Storm in a teacup – can only play well for the ALP – amongst rusted on torys.
The Tories here should face reality. Whatever the reality behind WorkChoices (and I think that, based on the infamous “2c/hour rise”, the “operational reasons” dismissal/rehiring and Hockey’s ongoing refusal to reveal how many AWAs strip out conditions, that the ALP is closer to the truth than the LP is), the perception is that WC represents a sell-out of the workers by the LP. This is why they’re on the nose. Also, Howard and his ministers aren’t helping matters with their blatant spin, pork-barrelling and media manipulation, not to mention Abbott, who has to be an undercover ALP agent.
End result – unless something happens or ALL of hte pollsters are completely wrong, the LP is gone is 8 days. Without a single State party in coherent shape, they’ll be a long time in the wilderness.
SL #371,
Unfortunately, once an argument like this gets started, the only way out is to start a new thread.
No 380
I’m contemplating a donation of $100 for William’s trouble.
LOL @ ESJ
Well the ad on the Libs website front page is already redundant
And Unions WA – The peak body here in WA is distancing themselves of the CFMEU stoush.
will only please Paul Armstromg, Perth Now and 6PR
Hahhaha well done. Now you’re not even TRYING to construct an argument.
383 MC
Too right. GP is only interested in insults and generating frustration. No credible arguments at all. At least Glen has a reasoned (if misguided) approach.
Just checked the betting markets and theres not much movement there, I think most people are placing bets based on who they’d like to win as oposed to who they think will win. Mckew in Bennalong should be odds on if the polls are anything to go by so $2.65 is an incredibly good value bet, Handsin in Boothby is less of a chance but is still about $2.30.
William should start up a swear jar. Anyone who says Rodent must contribute $1 to the site. I can’t think up a suitably repeated word for the Lib posters.
Krudd
LTEP,
The obvious one is Krudd. I’m sure there are others, tho…
So what time does Howard come out of the crisis meeting with Crosby/Textor? Or has he gone into hiding like The Gimp?
A week ago some Liberal HQ leaks say Howard talks everything over with Grahame Morris.
Krudd just never has done it for me. It’s far too obvious. I suppose we could make it references to ear wax. Because that never gets tiresome.
“The gimp’s asleep.”
“Well you’d better wake him up hadn’t you!”
377
Swing Lowe Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 12:35 pm “OK, if no one cares about the Morgan (I know I don’t), what do people think the effect will be of this?”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768831-29277,00.html
…
The effect in WA will be positive for Labor. The CFMEU’s bullying industrial profile and Archer’s links to Brian Burke have been bad news for Labor here, so their resignations will lighten the load considerably.
No 390
We have the maturity to address politicians by their real names.
SL #377,
I have an uncle who runs an enginerring subcontractor firm. He has no time for the CFMEU, Joe McDonald or Kevin Reynolds. McD and Reynolds being expelled (effectively what happened to Reynolds) will simply make the ALP look more palatable to the businesses in Perth who have suffered from CFMEU tactics – and they are many. Looks like McDonald won’t be back. This story certainly won’t hurt the ALP out West.
Not as bad as when Christopher Pyne refered to Jim Bacon as “Salty Bacon”.
I wonder how many votes that swung?
Good on you.
Gippslander/Derek Corbett/ShowsOn
“Someone on Radio National’s Bush Telegraph says McGauran’s seat of Gippsland is in play. Compere said: “Gosh …”
The quote was attributed to Lasseters.
If Gippslander shows up, please refer.
Gippslander 590 Says: ACN Thread November 16th, 2007 at 1:22 am
‘I cannot understand why Gippsland seems off everybody’s radar! The seat is a much better bet than the average Vic swing, because in the last election it was heavily hit by Latham’s forestry debacle, and the local member must have the lowest personal vote of any National in the country. And if you don’t think Mortgages and Workchoice are issues in the Latrobe Valley then you’re wrong’.
Hmmm…. I’m supposed to be working!
Here’s a little trick that some dodgy business people used after the introduction of SerfChoices. It’s possible that this method was so abused it had to be moderated, thus the ‘lets make sure it’s unfair – Fairness Test’
1. You start with Company A
2. Introduce SurfChoices
3. Start Company B, does exactly the same work as Company A.
4. Hire a bunch of workers, for considerably less than those employees of Company A, put them on SerfChoices.
4a. This works well if the new workers are on a temporary visa, maybe hired through a mate who is charging them a comfortable fee for immigration handling. Maybe a nice little kick-back too.
5. Most new contracts go to Company B.
6. Oh dear Company A is going broke!
7. Make an offer to employees of Company A that they go to Company B, they wil need to sign a new contract. (SerfChoices)
8. Ex -employee of ex-Company A gets arse kicked by wife because he now earns less, for more time away from home, child-care is now an issue, or he can’t get enough hours.
9. Temporary visa workers can afford to give the family back home a swimming pool, but can’t afford a bus ticket to work. They get sore feet because they can’t afford shoes and walk everywhere. And they still owe the immigration agent two years wages.
THEN AGAIN POVERTY IS BY CHOICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just ask that miserable excuse of a human being Tony (The Mad Monk) Abbott.
And why exactly did he get booted out of the seminary???? Hey????
Is that another gay story there?????
Just how many Liberals are in the closet????
This was common practice amongst construction companies.
So for those Tories that dont understand business, there’s not much I can explain for you.
And that’s probably it until I get home to-night.
GP is not the sharpest pencil in the pack and for the life of me I can’t understand why everytime he appears fly like on this blog people go on a swatting rampage. Leave him to his own devices, he’ll go out the window eventually..
FYI,
Andrew Landeryou is offering a $100 bet that the Coalition will win. You just need to name your price. You’re probably going to get better odds against him than at any bookie atm. Link is below if anyone is interested:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/take-oc-loot-we-have-100-that-says-john.html
GP – you’re gonna lose, nerny nerny ner ner!!!
How is that for maturity?
What are peoples takes on Pt Adelaide? Labors on a big margin here which I don’t think is gonna change much, so I’m tempted to vote green in the lower aswell cause i prefer their policies. However if I lived anywhere else in Adelaide i’d be voting labor in lower, greens in senate. Anyone else share similar senario?
No 404
It seems you only have the intellectual capacity for personal attacks.
No 406
Pathetic Samuel.
409: I know you are, but what am I?
On radio national Kroger droning on about Labor, boy, he’s a blowhard. Then Barnaby saying the government is facing annihilation. But no, Kroger still drones on about the Libs great economic management and brilliant tax plan.
How do these lizards ever talk straight and tell the truth?
Oh well, Kroger reckons we’ll see Howard fight back in the last week!
Love it! Bring it on!
GP,
You and your adversaries appear to be taking up much bandwidth without actually contributing anything of value to the larger debate/discussion. Given that William’s bandwidth is limited and valuable, could I ask you all to move to an MSN thread or something?
#405 He’s also offering $100 on Labor not making a net gain in Victoria. Is this the new “How to spend a million dollars” game?
now now corners kiddies!?…
The Tiser puts Mia Handshin on a two-party preferred vote of 49%, which is Labor’s best polling in Sturt since Norm Foster won it in 1969.
Lead story on Ch Ten’s 11am News is Abbott’s latest case of Foot in Mouth.
Here is a question for someone in the know: why does Morgan keep returning a higher Labor vote? Is it methodology, presentation, people on its list, places it surveys? If anyone knows why, why doesn’t Morgan change the way they go about things? Do they think their numbers are correct?
This is quite a peculiar thing. A few years ago Kroger was able to COMMENT, now he simply CAMPAIGNS.
In fact I think the more he is CAMPAIGNING the more desperate the government’s position is. At last election he gave commentary, which suggested to me he thought the government was going to win easily.
Since he is campaigning this year, it means the government will lose.
He won with 49% 2pp!? What a genius!
I actually think Andrew Landeryou has made some good points… mostly on Labor’s woeful campaign. I particularly agree on his point that Labor has no message for the campaign.
I’d still rate Labor’s chances of winning as less than 50% (slightly)… but it certainly won’t be a shock if they somehow scrape in. Labor’s problem is that they haven’t emphasised how much of an underdog they really are. After the last election they were saying Labor couldn’t win this election… now they’re saying that they can’t lose. The former is still more the case no matter what the polls say.
Your a brave person if you think Landeryou would pay out on a bet, don’t waste your time on the sleazy gossip monger, if you’ve got twenty bucks burning a hole in your pocket donate it to this site- much better value.
407 Chris
I’m in Pt Adelaide too. I’ll be voting Greens both HoR and Senate, and so will the wife. In such a safe ALP seat though, and with such a massive swing on at large, I don’t think there’s anything interesting going on here.
When I said David Speers was the only certain winner of this election campaign, I was wrong. Kroger is also going to be a clear winner, as his performances as an “analyst” on Sky News and other media have made people realise he’s one of the more articulate Liberals around.
Expect him to get parachuted into a safe Lib seat in NSW after the election (probably either Berowra or Mackellar).
If you want a great example of Kroger’s Modus Operandi re Liberal Powerbroking, check out Glen Wheatley’s Autobiography Paper Paradise where he mentions how he was the original choice to stand for Higgins, but had to pull out cos of Glen’s various financial problems involving his Nightclub The Ivy.
The replacement candidate was none other than Dollar $weetie himself :-0)
Howard has no one to blame but his own wife Janette!
Had she not commanded /pushed Howard to cling on to the top job during the Liberal’s leadership crisis (after the APEC Conference), Howard could have stepped down in grace and dignity.
Power is addictive and greed has no limit!
God damn the old hag!
Speaking of hiding candidates – the liberals are baby sitting most of theirs.
Bill Heffernan is following Gary Nairn around Eden-Monaro and disrupting public meetings when Gary starts to get beaten by Mike Kelly.
Its a bit sad to see a 4 term politician needing a minder…
The polls appear to be counterintuitive to some peoples’ expectations – namely that the LP will fall over the line. Open question – why is that?
SO #419,
Ha. Ha. Ha. Foster obviously got better, hence the whole “best result since then” part. I’m surrounded by comedians and attack dogs, it seems….
Isn’t Mrs Kroger’s wife due to become a senator after this election?
LTEP,
Labor’s campaign has not been woeful (uninspiring perhaps but that’s not the same thing). They’ve been extraordinarily well-disciplined compared to previous campaigns and they’ve timed everything perfectly.
If the campaign has been so woeful, why are we sitting here 2 days before the election with Labor up by 8-10 points in the polls (a shift of perhaps 2 points since the start of the campaign)?
OK – I give, it’s only the Rattus Rattus paying anyway.
Here’s a few answers, but I can’t remeber who asked.
AWA’s are fairly common, although a small percentage of the workforce is actually on one – makes it easy to dump. Whilst on this, back in the late 80’s you could get a job in WA driving a mine truck and earn over $100k, these days twenty years on it’s not much more and most of the condition s are gone.
It’s probably illegal to tell someone that you are on AWA.
It’s un-Australian to not use nick-names for people, especially politicians. To ban/tax that sounds like sedition to me – I’ll need to report you.
I gave at the office – William’s office.
407 chris
Labor lower, Greens upper. I’m Boothby.
Nick will get in regardless. We may as well go for a green, in addition. They have a considerable chance.
At least you’ll get a better sitting member than Sawford.
Having the leader of the S.A. left as your local member will be pretty good.
LTEP at 420
How can Labor’s chance of winning be less than 50 % when all the analysis here and at possum shows a TPP between 54% and 55%? No matter how you slice or dice the swing…. that will deliver the seats!
avec
Swing Lowe if Labor win it will be despite their campaign rather than because of it. There’s really been nothing to it. In one year’s time I bet you none of us will remember what Labor’s main campaign point was… the Liberals it’s easy. Don’t trust the unions. It’s just my opinion. I’d be surprised if any non-Labor fiend thought it’s been a particularly brilliant campaign from them. Take away the good polls and I think you’d find there hasn’t been that much that’s been great for them (bar the leaders’ debate… the first time I’ve been impressed by Rudd).
I was merely pointing out the pointlessness, by way of example, of GP’s contributions for the past hour or so.
As I have posted above, I don’t expect there to be a material difference between the national 2PP figures on polling day and the figures shown by reliable polls in the dying days (e.g. ACNielson).
ACN has been steadily trending downwards for Labor for months, but only ever so gradually. The narrowing is simply not occurring quickly enough for Generic Person and his/her party.
I was previously a believer of the “Great Narrowing” and the inevitable claw back of the polls to a close fight. It is now clear that a narrowing is occurring – but it is not “Great”. Key question: will the narrowing accelerate sufficiently in the next week? Seems unlikely.
LTEP,
The “Don’t trust the unions” campaign point has been shown to be ineffective in swinging Labor voters back to the Libs.
Anyway, wasn’t the Libs’ main campaign point supposed to be “Go for Growth”? Or ” A Full-Employment Country”?
The fact that these slogans have receded into the background shows just how ineffective the Libs campaign has been. However, I bet most people here will remember “New Leadership” as the Labor campaign slogan…
Question for ESJ/GP about Workchoices. A really genuine question.
Do you guys *honestly* believe that making some of the poorest, most powerless people in our society even less powerful creates a better Australia?
I’m talking about people like migrant office cleaners: people working their arse off at two jobs trying to support young families, holding down two jobs for shitty pay and conditions.
What I’m asking is this. Do you really sit there and think, yeah, ripping away pay and conditions from people like that, making their lives even more crap basically, is essential because it ensures full employment or it “keeps business competitive” or I don’t know, some other free market line.
Or are you just rich, white, and — well — kind of evil, and you don’t really give a sh*t for anyone who’s at the bottom of the ladder (”it’s their fault”, etc).
I honestly don’t know.
#420 LETP I presume the good points you refer to Landeryou making include;
“Howard’s message has been mostly crystal clear.”
Labor campaign has been “horrifically compromised by….basement dwelling gimps.”
Not even this idiot claims that the Libs are a better than 50% proposition, but you still seem to think (against all objective evidence) that they are.
BTW, who are these Labor people claiming they “can’t lose”?
At least Morgan isn’t crashing this afternoon – yet ………
Morgan headline: ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
And note that ALP Candidates advertising has had them pictured with Rudd, whereas the Libs have all but erased Howard.
So much for the “Liberal Team”
Perhaps we should rename the “great narrowing” the “great puckering”.
Headline from Morgan is “ALP Maintains Big Lead from Coalition”
No figures tho…
Swing Lowe, Kroger a reasonable commentator you must be joking, he just parrots the party line. I’ve watched him a few time with Rod Cameron and Cameron’s commentary and analysis is much more detached and credible he’s prepared to concede points and be critical whereas Kroger never lets an opportunity slip to repeat the ad agency lines (70%….etc).
As for him going to NSW , he could have had a safe seat in Victoria at any time over the last ten years but has chosen not to, why would he go to NSW? There won’t be to many safe seats going begging there after Nov 24
Generic Person Says:
“I didn’t ask for anyone else’s experience, I merely said that Workchoices was a necessary reform.”
What intelligent reason can you say Workchoices is a necessary reform. When overtime, leave loading, public holidays, redundancy flex time can be removed with no address. I don’t know what planet you’re on. Great gift we left for our kids mate.
.
I reckon it would be wise for some Labor staffers to go through this Auditor-General’s report with a fine-tooth comb, and commit to memory the worst examples of rorting. Make sure Rudd mentions a couple of the worst everytime Howard opens his mouth about economic management.
Maybe have Rudd visit one of the more obscene examples of pork to take the high moral ground (preferably in a safe Liberal/Nat regional seat where it matters little if he annoys the locals.) And make sure when in government he doesn’t replicate this sort of behaviour, mind you $386 million (over a third of billion dollars) is going to be hard to top. This makes my blood boil.
LTEP,
Have you watched the ALP campaign launch? There appears to be a fairly consistent focus on three things:
1. New leadership for a new era.
2. Fairness for Australians
3. Rebuilding Australia’s governmental services.
Oh, sorry, here’s a fourth
4. Governmental accountability.
The Libs have been focussed on two things:
1. Bad union bosses (ineffective)
2. Economic superiority (false, and has bitten them on the backside).
Whichever public servant mapped out the LP campaign (at the taxpayers’ expense, of course!) obviously had an axe to grind with his bosses.
Kroger WAS a good commentator 3 – 5 years ago. But these days he just campaigns. It is the same as inviting a Liberal front bencher to a show.
ALP 56.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5%)
This is to keep the 35% Liberal base together
This is to try to keep swinging voters.
Coalition support was 39% (unchanged from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8), while ALP primary support was 48% — up 3.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll.
To put you all out of your misery, it’s been linked from Morgan’s front page for about an hour, F2F Nov 10/11:
Primary ALP 48, Lib 39.5
2PP ALP 56.5, Lib 43.5
Cheers,
Wok
I never said Kroger was a reasonable commentator, just an articulate one.
And the reason why I’m saying NSW is that’s the most likely state where Libs are going to retire from safe seats. If (still a big if) the Libs lose the election, they would want people like him to rebuild the party. They’d probably guarantee him a shadow cabinet position in the process…
Swing Lowe, I’ve always been critical of the Liberal campaign too. I always thought ‘Go for Growth’ was a dud. What does it even mean? However I think they’ve been marginally better (very marginally). For instance, whilst I morally disagree with their local campaigning (eg. we’ll fix graffiti and hoons, Labor’s soft on crime etc) I think it’s probably going to be effective on the people they’re aiming it at… they disinterested undecided people.
I just keep getting the feeling Labor’s not exactly inspiring people to vote for them. In 1983 the ALP had the Franklin dams didn’t they? That was something really to vote for.
This is interesting, from Morgan:
“On Sunday, we will be releasing two special voting intention Morgan Polls:
2. “A special telephone poll conducted in 22 marginal Coalition seats — the results of the marginal L-NP seat poll will show whether the Coalition has any chance of retaining these seats — critical in determining who wins Government.”
Kroger World Today
I think Peter Hartcher on 7:30 Report last night said this was going to appear in their Sunday Fairfax papers.
from the HUN @ http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22768912-661,00.html
“A MAN has been arrested after rushing towards the stage where Prime Minister John Howard was giving a speech.
Mr Howard had just begun making an address at the Adelaide Convention Centre when a man stood up from the audience and ran towards the stage.
The man – who was carrying an object that appeared to be a basket – was tackled by Federal Police just metres from the stage.
As he was dragged towards a police car outside the convention centre, the man said he had been using a pooper scooper to “collect non-core promises.” ”
now that’s funny!
GP
Laissez-Faire Economic Fundamentalism doesn’t work. Neither does communism. Both are two extremes that Australia should stay away from. THE MARKET IS NOT INFALLIABLE. It is driven by disparity, which sometimes gets out of hand, and this is where the Government must step in.
What is the point of a strong economy if it doesn’t deliver a dividend for all???
ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
Morgan (I know, I KNow)
ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
——————————————————————————–
Federal Poll : Finding No. 4245 : November 16, 2007
On November 10/11, the weekend after the interest rate rise but before the L-NP’s official campaign launch in Brisbane, Coalition support was 39% (unchanged from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 7/8), while ALP primary support was 48% – up 3.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll. With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 56.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds. Full article.
Mr Squiggle:
From the Bennelong thread if you are reading.
I give you 2 further links for your own research.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-great-deceiver-is-in-a-class-of-his-own/2007/11/12/1194766588117.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_overboard
LTEP,
The whole point of the Labor campaign has been to show themselves to be a “safe pair of hands for the economy”. This sort of theme doesn’t exactly lend itself to ‘inspiring’ moments or policies. However, in the current environment, it’s probably the right course towards getting elected.
Need I remind you all that in 2004, Latham tried to have ‘inspiring’ policies – Medicare Gold and the Tassie Forestry policy. What vote-winners they both were!
If Ecuyer wimps out of following through on the Overington affair, we ca assume she has done all this for publicity and a lynching would be the most appropriate response.
“Mr Newhouse’s campaign was boosted yesterday when his former girlfriend and independent candidate for the seat, Danielle Ecuyer, released a split how-to-vote card, with one version favouring Mr Newhouse and one version favouring Mr Turnbull.
Yesterday the Australian Electoral Commission asked her for a statement on her claim that a journalist, Caroline Overington of The Australian, had offered a front-page story in return for directing her preferences to Mr Turnbull. It said the statement might go to federal police in any inquiry. But she said involving federal police was a big step she was not prepared to contemplate until after the election.”
Yep, Latham “SCared the Horses”, which Rudd has avoided. Also Rudd has captured the “Austereo Vote” by appearing on FM Radio and Rove Live, which makes him “Hip & Groovy”.
Howard on the other hand has stuck to Grandpa AM Talk.
Well i just finished making up my bingo cards for the 24th from adam’s candidates picks. there are 3 winning cards, the rest are a mix match. At $5 a card I will sell 50 with a guarenteed 3 prizes. It should be a hoot!!!
Oh the prizes are 1 bottle champagne and 2 bots quality sparkling.
Make a nice $200 for the branch.
Don’t try arguments on him, they don’t work.
His head starts to hurt, forcing him to have a nap.
Swing Lowe… I don’t really buy into the don’t scare the horses theory. I think you can make big policy announcements and differentiate yourself without scaring. You just have to do it in a very populous way.
I don’t think Medicare Gold was sold well at all. Noone knew what it was. Similarly, the Tassie Forestry policy was sold extremely poorly. It wasn’t marketed right for the mainland and stupidly threw away seats they already had. To me, the ‘04 election was only slightly poorer campaigning than this one.
In the end though, if Labor pull off the win it won’t matter what they did during the campaign, everyone will think it was a good one.
421-Amen to that Clarence. Anyone who think AL will pay out is in for a very rude shock. Nor forgetting he is bankrupt at the moment too. A shyster of the absolute lowest quality. It wouldnt surprise me if one of the regular Tory posters to this site is really AL.
LTEP (390) If you go back over the last few posts from Isabella you’ll get a few more words for the swear jar.
People paid $3.00 per hour in dive industry.
Workplace Rights Ombudsman Don Brown said the industry would be in need of “serious attention” if the complaints were found to be true.
“I have received allegations that some trainees are paid as little as $30 for a 10-hour day,” Mr Brown said.
“In one case in particular a Cairns dive operator engaged ‘dive industry internees’ for $30 a day, supplemented by on-site training.
“A condition of the the agreement was that ‘public holidays, Saturdays, Sundays and overtime are not granted … they are provided for in your allowances and courses’.”
Mr Brown said the investigation would begin in Cairns on December 10 with a series of interviews with employers and workers during the week.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/dive-industry-trainees-paid-3-an-hour/2007/11/16/1194766925064.html
‘Lose the election please’ you don’t get it about the campaign, when the election was called Labor was well out in front and it didn’t/doesn’t have to run a brilliant campaign the Liberals had to run a brilliant campaign and they’ve fallen well short of the mark. Their adds only appeal to their rusted on supporters and are mostly a curiosity to the average punter who doesn’t think Labor will “stuff things up” (such profanity tut tut).
Labors campaign has been brilliant in it’s simplicity and effectiveness just look at the polls.
Has Edward St John posted a link to his ‘blog’ anywhere yet?
joel fitzgibbons debating brendan nelson on sky. use the link off news.com.au page
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
Kroger.
Bounce. Will happen next week.
Best manager. PM did not make mistake on promising so much money. Labor’s policies are unbelievable, no one believes them.
Re Barnaby Joyce, annihilation. No, he was wrong.
Courtice. Well respected. Kevin Rudd no credentials.
Sciacca. Re ‘Kev to go on Rove, re turning gay. Possibly considering becoming Hugh Jackman’
Kroger. Rudd too gutless to front up for proper grilling, say by Cassidy.
LOL, I see the thread has been derailed yet again. I’m damned if I know why you guys continually bite at GP’s taunts, it is merely baiting you or it is intellectually slower than a herd of turtles stampeding through a vat of chunky peanut butter. Either way what’s the point.
Morgan or not is still good to see 56.5/43.5
Betamax,
To answer your question, Yes I support anybody earning a “living wage”, I just dont believe you need a system which directly costs about $200mill to do it (not to mention the indirect costs).
#472 Apparently it was ditched because sources close to ESJ wouldn’t abide the name-change they were trying to impose on him. I kid you not Asanque.
404 Sean
couldn’t agree more!!!
A well known phrase thrown in for free – not necessarily connected
“Never argue with an idiot, they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”
LTEP,
I think Labor had realised from well before this campaign that any “very populist” big policies have either been monopolised by the Coalition (see the NT intervention) or would have opened Labor up to charges by the Coalition of being economically irresponsible (see Medicare Gold for a key example).
I’m betting the Coalition realised this as well (as did most of the MSM commentators), which explains why JWH stuck around last year – he expected to cruise to victory, as Labor seemed to be trapped in an unwinnable position.
What the Coalition (nor anyone else) didn’t count on was the rise of an extraordinarily popular opposition leader (which has been the real driver of Labor’s lead in the polls) to whom no dirt would stick. The Coalition still hasn’t got its head around this problem and I doubt it will by next Saturday.
I have seen the future – it is written by Nostradamus – very scary and one of his more accurate predictions….be afraid..
Nostradamus Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millenium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpant with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanqish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of foreign land
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat and they will feast on the Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
His barren Princess assigned will lance his heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
384 G Person-Dont think, do!
Also, Im still waiting to hear about your promised sacrifice.
For all you Adelaidians I just heard an ad that Nicole Cornes will be featuring on 5AA with “arch enemy” Amanda Blair form after 1. Should be interesting…..
poor old Morgan, closest to primaries in 2004 and yet no-one will take him seriously.
Coalition at 39.5%, sounds good to me.
Ah well… I still stand by my opinion that the ALP has run a poor campaign. Perhaps it’s just the year-long faux campaign but I just find myself annoyed by Rudd more often than pleased. Of course Howard’s worse… but people have bought Howard 4 times now so obviously I’m missing something other people are seeing.
Perhaps I’m just that out of touch that I can’t pick a winner!
56.5 / 43.5
Ltep at post 434 says: “…. if Labor win it will be despite their campaign rather than because of it. There’s really been nothing to it. In one year’s time I bet you none of us will remember what Labor’s main campaign point was… the Liberals it’s easy. Don’t trust the unions…”
Labor’s is easy too: “Don’t trust John Howard, he’s got form”.
There. Not so hard, was it?
So that means you’ll vote against WorkChoices which has greatly increased the level of government intervention into I.R.
Just got my letter re doing Booth duties in Pearce on Election Day
The Victory Party which is the combined Hasluck/Pearce event will be at the old Midland Railway Workshops – which was one of Richard Courts first act in closing, when he became WA Premier.
The Irony is delicious
ShowsOn 487
Woof Woof!
488 Boll: Or was it because he was too left wing?:P
You have nothing intelligent to say either.
Why is it that all Liberals have completely given up this week?
LTEP when it comes to election campaigns it’s not about how you play the game but whether you win or loses. Beazly ran a great campaign in 98 and 04 but thats not what he’ll be remembered for, poor bugger.
Frank
What is the goss re Pearce, outside chance or possible gain.
ShowsON 491
Woof Woof!
Shows on
Because they’re stuffed and they know it.
You’re hilarious. I’m not surprised your the calibre of writer that gets a blog at The Oz.
I was one of the many people expecting that a Howard wedge of some sort, plus the gradual fade of the extended honeymoon for a popular and effective new leader, would make this election a very tight contest. But I’m now ready to take off my emotional armour-I’m now highly confident Labor will win. All of the objective data-polls, betting markets, the leaders movements and campaign tactics-point to a Labor win. There is probably just a hint of a narrowing, but you’d have to expect a Labour TPP of no lower than 53% based on all the data.
And 16 seats isn’t that big an ask. There are about 12 absolutely certain Labor wins-all the seats on low margins that fall if it just goes back to a 50/50 TPP, excepting Stirling and Solomon, which may not be certain, but adding Dobell and Blair, which need a bit more, but which the betting markets have as safe Labor wins based in guess on demographic shifts and weak incumbents. After that, there are least 14 really hot prospects from which Labor needs to get just 4. Plus there are any number of “long shots” from which Labor might pull one or two more surprise wins. I very much doubt we will see Labor win 90+, I still think that’s fantasy stuff, but a seat tally in the low 80’s will do just fine.
Labor’s campaign, IMO, has been outstanding. Disciplined, with effective counter-punching to every Liberal thrust.
But can the more extreme Labor supporters on this blog lay off some of the over-the-top rubbish about Howard being a dictator, a Nazi and all the other juvenile crap. And leave his wife and the other personal stuff out of it too. Treat your opponents with respect and stick to factual arguments and you’ll win more converts. Let Labor sit in the moderate centre while the other mob hurl insults from their little bastion on the far right, that’s exactly where Rudd wants them.
You can tell based on the standard of ESJ’s replies.
It sums up their entire campaign.
I really don’t see Hockey losing North Sydney. That electorate would have to have one of the lowest shares of blue collar workers in the country, so I doubt the Workchoices issue is going to get as much traction there as elsewhere.
On the other hand, Mike Bailey seems like a very good ALP candidate for that area, a handsome ABC weatherman will definitely go down well with the “doctor’s wives” demographic.
And and the lame will walk and the seas will be bountiful and children will sit contentedly at the feet of Julia “Medicare Gold” Gillard and peace will reign under the benevolent eye of dear Leader Kevin ….
I’ll woof, woof to that.
But no, this still doesn’t count as a very good post ESJ.
Rudd started campaigning the minute he was made opposition leader and came out with Education and Broadband as major themes and they have been all along.
I don’t know how it can be said Labor hasn’t had a theme. It has had the same ones right from the start.
Education revolution, broadband, Climate Change were such strong popular and well run themes that Howard had to adopt them to try to negate Rudd’s strength. Throw in with that the canning of WorkChoices you have quite a good campaign that has been running 11 months.
That Rudd has been so far ahead for so long must indicate a brilliant campaign by him – brilliant selling of his ideas and himself. Rudd has been exceptional in undermining Howard’s claim to economic credentials by foucssing on micro economics and, interest rate rises only served to reinforce the point. AND this is in a time of economic prosperity where it should be very difficult for a government to lose.
If Rudd wins this election 53-54 a lot of people will be looking at his tactics and doing the same. Rudd did play with Howard’s mind in Parliament and public so much so that he was just about to toss in the towel after APEC.
The only critiscism I have [but I guess they must know exactly what they are doing or, lack funds] is the lack of tv adverts during the last weeks.
Rort claims: PM looking down the barrel:
A DAMNING report on the Howard Government’s $328 million regional projects fund has reignited claims that the scheme has been blatantly used by the Government for pork-barrelling in Coalition electorates.
The report, by the National Audit Office, found the scheme had been plagued by political interference, disregard for rules and guidelines and a lack of transparency.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/pm-hit-by-rort-claims/2007/11/15/1194766869064.html
So LTEP, you are saying:
- Rudd has run a better campaign, but it’s crap
- Howard has won 4 times with crap campaigns
- whether the campaign is crap or not is not a good predictor of the result
Conclusion: ?
Have no idea, but Moylan has done absolutlely NO press advertising at all, despite one flyer with her “achievements”.
I reckon there might be a chance, but Pearce covers quite a few country areas affected by the drought etc.
Hard to say though.
ESJ,
My grandmother always told me “If you’ve got nothing good to say, then shut up!” Isuggest that you and a number of other people, on both sides, take her advice.
@190
Channel 7 political coverage generally is a JOKE,
as is their current affairs,
and anna coren?
give me a break.
PM @ 497
Hear hear.
Matt Price has always said workchoices is a dog of a policy. Perhaps that’s what ESJ is getting at with his “woof woof”.
“woof woof”
Hey ESJ,
‘what goes on tour stays on tour’
I don’t think the theme of the election is Labor’s to make. The theme is by default John Howard. Howard sympolises someone who has been there too long, told too many lies, and should go. All Labor have to do is not be John Howard. They can adopt similar policies, but when Labor promotes a policy it is their policy, not John Howard doing the selling.
All this stuff about themes and narratives goes over the average voter’s head. People have just decided that Rudd isn’t going to do anything particularly bad, and they think he is new and decent, and not old like Howard
for 85% of people that’s enough.
Does anyone know people that go to political party webpages and actually read the policy documents? To me they are just filler to support the leader. They don’t really change many votes.
499 Ed StJ
And it will rain more. It always does under a labor government look at the rainfall variability charts 83-96 and compare 96-07.
Just saw Mad Monk on Skynews Agenda, even with their sycophantic questioning he sounded like a loser. Waffling and twisting trying to weasel his way out of trouble, god help us if he ever gets to lead the Libs.
BTW I wonder what the chances are for Deearn Kelly to lose now, or don’t the voters care about blatant corruption anymore? I have probably already answered that question for myself.
Poor old Morgan get bagged so much. I hope they are the most accurate on the 24th.
I am hurt comrades.
I feel a higher performance standard applies to my comments then to others on this blog. I am to inform and entertain but even I can have an off day!
Mathew Cole – Fight the matriachy, theyll always try to control you!
Possibly. More likely he has just run out of nihilistic things to write.
No idea how he expects to run his own blog. I mean he said is meant to be about machinations in the Labor party, but if that is what The Oz wanted, wouldn’t they actually get someone who knew something about machinations in the Labor party – Andrew Landeryou perhaps.
473 Chris,
Surprised that they let Nelson out of the strait jacket
….. well the cricket is going nowhere fast at the moment, Aussies batting and have only lost Hayden before lunch. I will watch for awhile 
Why Do Liberals Hate Their Own?
http://blogs.theage.com.au/koutsoukis/archives/2007/11/why_do_liberals.html
Malcolm Fraser was asked by the ABC’s Fran Kelly on Monday whether he would be voting Liberal at this election. He declined to answer. That a former Liberal Prime Minister as ruthless as Fraser could refuse to endorse his own party a few days out from a federal election says a lot about the way the Liberals treat their former leaders. They’re an unsentimental lot aren’t they? Is this because, when it comes down to it, Liberals don’t really believe in anything?
Let’s hope for the Liberals’ sake that they treat John Howard with a bot more respect than their other former leaders after next Saturday. But going on past form, and the likely magnitude of the defeat they are about to suffer, I suspect that it won’t take long before those left behind start to trash his legacy.
So the Libs have lost this week very badly. Week 5. Even the Australian has started to take notice (read it and weep ye of the right). The Auditor Scandal and Abbott will play the whole weekend and ‘the insiders’, and set up another unclear drifting week, THE last week for a Lib meltdown. The polls may still narrow, infact I predict The Australian next Sat 24th will run a newspoll that will show some narrowing. But the ‘it’s time’ and Kev factors will have a strong effect and counter the ever reliable last minute vote to the conservatives. Labor 53.7-8 Libs 46.3-2
I thank you.
Gerr. I used to work with Anna’s sister. Hubba Bubba!!!
No Samuel K. I never said Rudd has run a good campaign. I remain unconvinced about Rudd to be honest. A lot of what the Coalition says about him is pretty spot on. He’s hollow, inexperienced, stands, noticeably for nothing, lives off of slogans etc. I’ll still be voting for Labor for the first time in the Reps (ex Greens voter). I made up my mind a long time before the campaign started.
A good campaign, however inspires people to vote for you. The Coalition, going by the polls has inspired at least an extra 1% of people to preference them. I’m not really sure how much of the ALP’s vote can be put down to their campaign. WA perhaps? But what have they done in WA?
484 LTEP
The ALP policies aren’t exactly what I want either, but I will disagree on the poor campaign assertion – not violently mind you – but it’s a better topic of discussion than ’swat the fly’ that’s been going on today.
Have a read of this:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/tuesday-column-why-labor-stands-for.html
Hotellings Law
The ALP strategy was planned from long ago and based around this principle, and 1 other – lag time.
In twelve months the ALP have shifted their ice cream cart to the middle of the beach, and every time JWH has turned his back, they’ve walked it slowly to the right. Not fast enough to discourage too many from walking from the left end of the beach (lag) but fast enough to convince those just to the right of the centre of the beach that they’ve got a choice. The further to the right they walk – the more people can see that there are 2 carts.
It’s only an analogy, but it’s a well understood economic principle.
My democracy hat suggests that someone should open up a cart down the left end of the beach, though I suspect that those down the right end are a mite greedy and they’ll be starting at least one cart up soon.
Nelson is going very presidential in his closing address, covering all the bases.
Mentions the strong coalition of Howard, Costello, Downer, NELSON…!!!
Still looks very seedy with his bags under the eyes look. Lightweight.
Hinkler/Herbert error and wrong Newspoll link finally corrected.
Thanks Julie, living in Tokyo, completely forgot it was on. Labor at shorter odds to win than the cricket team, who are going for 13/14? straight. over to cricinfo for an update
@516
Ok I get your point….lets not throw out the baby with the bath water…..
(Umm just between u and me….what was she like? I want details, names, numbers, photos, bank acc numbers etc etc.)
Oh, the “Do the right thing” isn’t going to work anymore since even the government doesn’t do the right thing without having scrutiny.
I’m now getting visions of a court room, the Australian people are the jury, the government is the defendant, and the Labor party is the prosecution.
Defendant’s Lawyer (JWH): “Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, there is no case here. My client has done nothing wrong, in fact it has been the best citizen of this great country. The prosecution will tell you that my client was asleep at the wheel, and was drunk. He has never shown hard evidence to prove anything. You, the people, have never seen my client do anything wrong. The prosecution will make you believe that its my client’s fault that you can’t afford a house or to get your teeth checked. I urge you to look at the big issue, look at what he has done over the last 11 years and how great it has been. If you convict my client, you will only give control to the unions, of which I might add that the prosecution lawyer is a member of.”
Prosecution (KR): “Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the defense asks you to ignore all the recent facts. They tell you that you’ve never been better off, but they ask you to ignore everything that goes wrong but asks you to look at everything that is going great. The defense was caught pedaling little blue pills when they said ‘Go for growth’, and they try to bribe you with tens of dollars a month only to be forking out more money on your loan. They ask you to trust them, but they’re corrupt and waste your money like a drunken sailor. They’re doing what Cher couldn’t do, and ‘turn back time’ with the Industrial relations and education. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, don’t be fooled, I urge you to look very closely at all the evidence, not just the evidence the defense wants you to.”
Shows On.
“Themes” and “narratives” when spoken about as concepts and in those terms do certainly go over the normal (i’ll refrain from using average) voters head. But they still absorb the messages, and its through absorbing them “unconsciously” if you will, that they form their generalised veiw that one leader is MoD, safe, new and the other is old and tired.
My thoughts for what they are worth.
#517 a good campaign for the ALP was never going to be about trying to inspire more people to vote for them. All they had to do was maintain the status quo, which everything suggests they have managed to do.
Why do people keep referring to what Kroger has been saying? The guy is full of hot air, even worse than Howard. Guys like that who try to argue black when everyone can see it’s white just end up looking like idiots.
Hot off the press, Howard has promised to build 100 comfort stops around the nation at a cost of $100 million. This campaign is getting bizarre, 100 one million dollar crappers strewn around the countryside, they must have gold plated toilet seats, what a fitting epitaph for the lying rodent, I always though he was as cunning as a shit house rat.
This policy announce marks the turning point of the campaign, let the narrowing begin
I see your point. But I think one of Rudd’s strongest messages is that he will be a careful P.M without being John Howard.
It is like you can have a Howard who is younger, not a climate change denier, and who is more interested in every day living costs than bizarre economic statistics.
So Labor has presented Rudd as different in important ways, but the same in other areas that voters care about.
I think that has been the success of Labor’s campaign.
People, people please. Stop talking about Workchoices and what its impact is now.
Workchoices wasn’t designed for a booming economy, it was designed for a contracting economy.
It was designed so employers could cut wages and sack workers at will when the economy started to go belly up. It was designed so that unions would have no say in how to help companies that were struggling. It was designed as the perfect set of rules to allow the simplest options for employers when their business runs into trouble – punish the workers.
Will Kroger be on Lateline tonight.Look forward to more of his “the american tanks are not massed on the border” analysis.
‘Tis champagne comedy – he’s looking more and more like Ray Martin these days.
@517 LTEP
No, way. Rudd has rund a very good campaign after a shaky start (see my comment in Shanahans article today for reference material).
People may be getting somewhat complacent as to the magnitude of a possible Labor victory in terms of counter wedging the wormtounged rodent – partic this last week.
Rudd has played Howard like Wellington played Napoleon, He played defensive bigtime because he had to then in the final stages counterattacked to effect. it was the ONLY way to play. Have ppl forgotten whose side the media has been oin until this last week??????? Rudd maybe some of thise things you say, he may be none of them.
(Disclaimer Howard is to Napoleon what a Datsun 120Y is to the latest BMW)
Because there WAS a time when Kroger was quite an insightful conservative commentator.
But it seems that time has passed, now he is just another campaigner.
Talking about commentators. The biggest loss to this campaign has been Matt Price. He wrote one article and said he would try to contribute. The fact he hasn’t makes me worry that his health is very bad.
His humour and even handedness would’ve been an assett to the campaign coverage. Even a political junky like myself is feeling fatigue heading into the final week.
kev 482
For all you Adelaidians I just heard an ad that Nicole Cornes will be featuring on 5AA with “arch enemy” Amanda Blair form after 1. Should be interesting…..
Kev, I rang 5AA. Nicole is on at 3.30.
In the meantime, how could anyone listen to that insufferable drongo, Amanda Blair.
If Nicole can’t cream her, I’ll listen to Leon Byner for a whole morning.
Have 13, looking for 14 straight wins I believe.
Shows On.
I agree. I see it similar to when you get a pop up message from iTunes saying updates have been made to iTunes or iPod and do you want to dowload them. You trust that its going to be as good as what you’ve got except its had the rough bits fixed and its keeping you up to date.
Great site. Reading all of your comments is very entertaining. I often wonder though if psehologists and political fancyists alike, get it wrong because they can’t see the forest for the trees?
For example, while Abbott’s gaffe may seem like the last straw to some, I just can’t imagine that it swings votes…Laborists will love it (myself included) and Liberales’ will shrug it off with whatever spin Abbott/the party put on it after the fact (e.g it was doctored, it is a dirty trick)…Average Joe-Couldn’t-Give-a-Rats-About-Politics just isn’t going to register that story in my opinion.
Having said all of that, maybe I’m just cycnical cause I have lived in Abbott’s electrorate for too long…what a ship of fools we are
I think it is funny that Abbott is saying that the video footage of was “doctored”. It is hilarious seeing another Liberal politician go all post-modern on us and say that the camera some how lied.
What he was saying was extremely clear. Workers and lost protections, the IRC had lost powers, and he thought that was GOOD.
Well, that is basically what WorkChoices has done, he may think it is good, but what he seems incapable of doing is explaining WHY those policies are good.
Re Howard’s Shithouse led recovery
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092960.htm?section=justin
Abbott is now having his own “sorryunsorry” moment:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/abbott-flipflop-on-ir-claims/2007/11/16/1194766911384.html
Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott has said he stands by comments he made about protections being cut under WorkChoices legislation — despite having disowned the claims in a separate interview.
The LNP primary will not be 43 on election day. It will be 41 and if their vote implodes this week due to Abbot and Grantgate it may get close to 40.
[Also interesting to note AC Nielsen has the LNP vote diving a few points on election day at each poll 1998 to 2004].
Crean used the “C” word this morning on AM. Hope they use that sound bite – “Corruption”.
Kroger (Krocker (- sh*t) is a party hack, looking for the truth emanating from his mouth is like expecting Warney’s phone to have text messaging disabled. It aint gonna happen.
Also he’ll probably be on with Rod Cameron, who is suffereing some sort of twitching dementia. At least he has some more tenuous grip on reality that Krocker (-sh*t).
ps If the Coalition get ousted…does that mean Murdoch stops sitting on the fence…cans Shanahan/Albrechtson et al. and we can start reading the Australian?
Abbott is Labors best performer. Geezuz, if you were Howard youd be pulling your hair out…..
Gerr. Sorry, but i dont have those details.
For Laughs, ShowsOn..
Rates Analyst, you’ve need working with the Bailey campaign, yes?
Those of you who enjoy ranting about The Australian but are not Crikey subscribers might enjoy this:
Wentworthgate just the latest chapter in the trashing of The Oz
Guy Rundle writes:
Did Rupert Murdoch just sack Chris Mitchell? Though the man who once took a bust of Lenin to college at Oxford was under the pressure of a rare moment of public account, it is pretty rare for him not to back up a working editor or at least stonewall creatively.
He would have good cause of course. Over the past couple of years, Mitchell’s leadership has wrecked the reputation of The Australian, and for little benefit. Whatever gains the news section has made in matters like the AWB scandal have been undercut by its fast-and-loose attitude to the responsibility of its op-ed writers, and – resulting from that – its demeaning and near-psychotic wars with Media Watch and Robert Manne.
There’s so many lowlights and hilarious moments in The Oz’s conduct of the culture wars, it’s hard to know which to pick as a favourite:
Janet Albrechtsen reversing a quote from a French academic about youth rape to make it sound like it was about rape by Muslim youths – the exact opposite of the author’s findings.
Keith Windschuttle’s denunciation of Antonio Negri, the Italian academic invited by Sydney Uni to a conference. Windschuttle got most of his entirely inaccurate take on Negri from an American journal – the only detail he missed was that Negri had cancelled his visit. Nevertheless, op-ed editor Tom Switzer ran the story for days.
Christopher Pearson’s denunciation of the radical left publishing agenda of ABC Books, as judged by the books on its website. Only trouble was none of them were published by ABC Books – they were simply books mentioned on ABC shows and stocked in ABC shops.
The relentless denunciation of cultural studies, deconstruction etc from the editorial pulpit, despite the fact that one of its (sometime) leader writers – Imre Salusinszky – had been a prime mover in converting Australian university English Departments into cultural studies departments.
Walkley Dwarf-rage
Shanahan et al’s Comical Ali impersonation
And now Bondigate. You can’t pull this sort of crap for ever without damaging the brand. Even the rusted on readers are getting exasperated, as can be judged from the 400+ comments on one of Overington’s blog stories “Interest rate rise will be good news for Howard”.
Whether Mitchell will be dumped remains to be seen. He can’t be shuffled sideways like Paul Kelly, who owns some books and can write long pieces (that often feel very long). He may be kicked upstairs to goose up the US part of the empire. He may be warehoused — as former Sun editor Kelvin MacKenzie was for a decade — in failed multimedia projects. Switzer will have to go back to the valleys and lederhosen of his cheese-making youth.
It’s all a bit of a shame. Switzer’s op-ed pages were interesting at the start – though always a fixed fight – and as far as the paper goes, parts of it are excellent, madam. Undoubtably some of the Slurry Hills gang’s energy gave the paper a transfusion it needed. But its leadership are obsessives, tipping – to judge from the Overington email oeuvre – into the hypomanic, with its characteristic delusion of invulnerability.
Whatever the cause, the Oz as it now is in a Rudd era would be utterly out of place, like an ex- at the wedding. The culture wars are over, simply because most Australians never cared much about them, once Keating was gone.
It took about 30 Luke Slattery — a good writer fallen among nutjobs — articles on deconstruction in high schools to get a single rise from one state premier (Queensland) on the issue, and then everything carried on as before. The Oz’s culture wars were a puppet show on the beach, washed away by the climate change of Workchoices, Iraq, pathological lying, climate change and even David Hicks. Should – should – Labor get up, the paper will have to reinvent itself, lest it sound like the magazine of the LaRouchites. Whoever’s best placed to do that, it ain’t the current mob.
I get the feeling that Peter Hendy, Freehills, the HR Nicholls Society and the Business Council of Australia will be removed from the Howard Family’s Christmas card list this year.
In one term the Libs go from a landslide victory and Senate win to self confessed likely annihilation.
The main reason – WorkChoices – so good for you that we changed its name.
‘been’, not need. Where did that come from?
Yes, Paul K you are right. Loved the musical BTW.
Some people, such as GP are best ignored, especially when it’s clear that they only come here to get a reaction.
Yes i have
The thunder box-led revival. Love it.
This could well enter the language.
Along with expressions like “To Shanahan” (meaning to distort the facts); “To go the Abbott” (meaning to rubbish the efforts of some well-meaning individual); We could get “The Howard”, as in “I’ve gotta take a Howard, mate” (meaning I need a dump).
Has anyone read any of the details of the regional program audit report yet? Never mind the nepotism, get a load of the inefficiency. Here are a few gems pulled out of the summary report, chapters 5.4 and 5.5:
- DOTARS did not implement the site visit process established in September 2003
- 37% of audited projects never provided any report on the outcome
- “at no stage have effectiveness targets for the Regional Partnerships Programme been set or reported by DOTARS”
- where progress was reported, only 21% of projects had achieved their objectives
In other words, they gave out some of the money without any conditions, didn’t check what it was used for in any cases, and in the minority of cases where they got a report on whether it did any good, only 21% met their objectives. $400 million pretty much wasted, with no measurable output at all.
Hi all – long time lurker, first time blogger. I often wonder when I hear statements like GP at 328 whether they are serious, or just stirring the pot. Unfortunately, I have met people who hold similar views, and it never ceases to astound me. How do people like you become so uncaring and self-centred? Do you really think that everyone has 100% control over everything that happens to them? We are all the products of our influences and other people’s actions. Statements like yours just highlight how out of touch the extreme right is with the idea of a fair go for all.
Comment moderation clearout done, apologies for delays.
Here’s my question:
Come 24.11.07 who is going to lose their credibility: the 4 major polling outfits in Australia or the News Ltd Howard cheer squad?
Only one team can survive!!!!
#545 I thought we already had The Howard, “The Little Turd that won’t flush”- P.Adams? Mike Carlton?
Clarence, the rang a tang rodent outhouse…’we will decide whose bowels are…’
The crappy campaign continues.
Thanks William. Can clues to mine, I think it might have been the mentioning of blue things.
Rates Analyst, I rang to offer Mike help a few weeks back and have been snaffled for booth duty and scrutineering. I thought if we were both at the party it would be good to compare Bludger notes… particularly as I’ll know no one there.
Also I am a Booth Virgin, so if you have any killer tips I’d be grateful. Cheers
Crispy – I will be at the 11 o’clock scrutineering school on Sunday – might see you there. I’m on a booth at North Sydney Girls.
Or just yell “Nanyucket” at the top of your voice at the party afterwards and I’ll come say hello!
(Though it’s my first campaign too… I’ve been involved for a while so I know a few of the guys though)
Crispy – I will be at the 11 o’clock scrutineering school on Sunday – might see you there. I’m on a booth at North Sydney Girls.
Or just yell “Nantucket” at the top of your voice at the party afterwards and I’ll come say hello!
(Though it’s my first campaign too… I’ve been involved for a while so I know a few of the guys though)
Completely off thread I know, but what “rabbit” could the Coalition pull out to save it’s neck now?
I’m thinking that a big anti-terrorism operation may be on the cards. There must be a few nutters that ASIO and Inspector Mick have keeping their eye on. Maybe a few pre-dawn raids, say next Tuesday. They can keep them in custody right through the advertising blackout and the election…
I like downers analogy of the cricket team. “It’s like saying change the whole australian cricket team when they are winning. you wouldn’t do that” he pleads.
No Dolly it’s like occupying the crease for the entire innings (11 years) and making 3 runs!
I’m laughing so hard about Howard’s immortal thrones dotted around the country I can hardly type!
This is truly bizarre! Can we also get a plaque in each one, with John’s face on it, preferably on the urinal wall?
OMG, a descent into the sewers of politics. ‘Tis wonderous to behold the rat disappearing into a drainpipe.
Why would JWH want to have anything to do with crappers when he’s so far in the poo? It’s as if he has no sense of Australian humour, we’ve seen it here already – ‘crapper led recovery’ etc, and more polite versions will be headlining later today and tomorrow in the MSM (what would Clark and Dawe do with this, the mind boggles). What pack of turdonauts are steering this stinking Tory hulk?
Watch the Doctor’s Union oppose this
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093065.htm?section=justin
Ahh yes, but the Austarlian cricket team have had the balls to force underperforming captains from the team….
And there’s the difference Mr Downer.
Observer Says:
Albert Ross@57
Lead on http://www.abc.net.au as you will have seen by now.
If you can you should do a quick Stat Dec and send it to Kev07 or the ABC, If you need the format for a stat dec let me know and I will put it up as a Google shared document or something like that
Rates Analyst and Crispy
There is a free party at Surry Hills Bat and Ball Hotel hosted by LavarteusProdeo website , 2SER and New Matilda website. Lavar P is a centre/left leaning website. It sounds a big party..I am thinking about going to this one..are you interested? It sounds like a big party.
Anybody else interested?
Is this anyone we know?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYNum3X4tmY
571 centaur_007, the theory is that Ian Botham was initially promoted to the English test team with the sole task of running out Boycott (the crease-hoggers crease-hogger). Looks like there is any amount of dolts lining up to run JWH out (mad monk, dolly, vale vaile, the list is endless).
Bird,
Thanks for the invite, but I think I’ll be at Mike’s party…
ruawake at 578
I could put a name to the poor lad, but I’d rather not. Lets be niiice, instead.
Rates, cool, my scrut school is also 11am so I’ll see you there. By my Leunig T shirt shall you know me.
don’t know 578 but he will be at the exchange on election night, or the peel, or the laird.
Out of interest, where is Mike’s Party? Maybe I should go to your one!!
100 to Jaques
Sounds good.
See you there.
The prefrances from many will help a lot this time. No split ticket Greens, independents like S.Mayne most lower house candidates except pornography first. (oh and the raving looney monster party CEC, but they don’t get many votes)
All who have volunteered would have received the email already Mr Bird…..
It’s at a cafe near the Electorate Office on Pacific Highway – very convenient!!
554 Adam
I reckon Grant Holloway should get the boot, as he has been running roughshod on the censorship thing on the blogs and if he is gone, at least the objectors are assured of getting their message across.
I was blocked at the Oz for a month until I used my connections to get it sorted out!
Shamaham just hates me now…. a badge of honour I reckon.
Sure, be all negative, gloom-mongering and cautious LTEP, its your call (and Landeryou).
But let it be known you dont get to join to roll up to the joy brigade woohoo squad thread Saturday next – when you’re proven wrong – without at least a big “woah! guess you guys and all the polls were right after all, how about that”.
Dont roll up here as if none of yer endless grim caution had happened.
The reality is Howard has slightly less chance than Buckley’s.
People tend to forget William Buckley made it in the end.
Howard’s only one in five to survive.
Thanks Bird. The LP party should be a hoot, but I’ll at least start at Mr Bailey’s celebrations. Maybe lob very late.
I thought a pre-requisite for wanting Labor to win is that you have to be an eternal pessimist.
LTEP isn’t exactly alone in expressing his negativity. 11.5 years of Howard does that to a lot of people.
And here is Shrek, right on cue
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092800.htm
I know, ShowsOn. But the imperviousness to repeated contrary evidence goes beyond “Ive been burnt before” (which I understand) – to a bizarre kind of Ostrich pose, which I dont get at all.
Yes, Howard’s longevity can play havoc with your mental health. I always fall back on my statistics when I get negative – I read and believe the polls.
Cardioliogists have a lot to answer for!!!
SO #592,
I am and was an ALP-supporting pessimist. However, you can take pessimism only so far. I am now (cautionsly) optimistic. Howard may just fall across the line, but the ALP will make large gains at the very least. It would take a miracle for Labor to not get the TPP majority.
My earlier predictions were for a tight Coalition win, on 77-odd seats (look up Possum’s site).
However, I’m not prepared to back it anymore. I can’t predict an outcome, largely because I am emotionally finding it hard to believe that Howard doesn’t have any more rabbits in his hat. My mind says that an ALP victory is near-certain, but my emotions remember 1998, 2001 and 2004, where an initially promising ALP campaign failed to deliver.
Socrates
This pretty much sums up Howard’s time in government.
Corruption, incompetence and absolute lack of accountability.
Good riddance.
Centaur_007: I will be at the Laird that night. All my big fat hairy, not so butch, mates will be getting drunk. I think only my partner will be the one crying because of a loss, everyone else will be celebrating.
Rates Analyst, Crispy,
Same electorate – different booth. I’m at the Uniting Church on the corner of Shirley and Nicholson from 12 noon on the 24th. And word is Mike is not the worst bet going around.
Solidarity!
Crispy and Rates Analyst:
Do you think Mike will go close in Nth Sydney? Joe HOckey is really a disgrace – they are all misguided re the IR stuff. I used to work at the ABC – I have met Mike – he is really nice..lovely guy actually, apparently he has a mensa level IQ..
I very deliberately nominated North Sydney for my “biggest swing” prediction.
Mr Bailey is in with a real shot.
I spent an hour in Kirribilli this morning handing out pamphlets – and only got three people who gave even the slightest bit of “pro-Johny” niggle. In Kirribilli I repeat.
That’s including the nice old lady who shook her head and said “Not a chance!”
I’m in North Sydney and I have said for some time that it will be closer than anyone in the MSM has seriously suggested thus far (I’m doing my bit on E-Day). I certainly wouldn’t call it for Mike yet but he is a real chance, much more than probably even he suspected when he signed up.
Watching Hockey scramble for votes is hilarious, given that the only thing I’ve ever seen of him over the last 11 years is an annual fridge magnet and a few flyers in the mail come mandate renewal time.
LTEP
I respect and understand your caution, but at the same time I think Labor can be legitimately confident by now. Australians don’t like hubris and Rudd and all other candidates should be humble and careful, but really lets look at the week ahead:
- Monday should see a newspoll published with the reaction to Rudd’s launch
- Haneef’s appeal will be in court, with an attorney general in caretaker mode unable to gag any embarrassing revelations
- Abbott’s remarks will haunt him all week, because they are on film, and relate to a key element of the Coalition’s strategy
- banks will gradually pass on the interest rate rise, just to remind people
- Howard has no more money to spend without looking inflationary
- by Friday it will be too late
Here are my views of Howard’s best options to turn around the last week:
- publish evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard
- invent evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard (that can’t be disproven till after Saturday)
- black out reporting of the count and have young liberals stuff the ballot boxes
- military coup
tdt I’m at SCEGGS study hall, whatever that is. 213 Military Rd, from 1pm.
bird I guess if the big swing is on, North Sydney has to be high on the list of bolters. Particularly if WorkChoices is biting as hard as I think it is. Joe being such a classy turd polisher when it comes to that bit of policy. However, I claim no local knowledge. I’m actually from Grayndler, but Albanese clearly doesn’t need my help. I also used to work with Mike, back in his ATN7 days. He is seriously smart, and one of nature’s gentlemen too. He stood out in the TV industry, that’s for sure.
Sheesh,
Liberal Attack ad on Bob Debus.
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/detail/20071116_BobDebustakesMacquarieforGranted.php
Hi Crispy
yes, I am temporarily working in Canberra but back to sydney for election day. Will be handing out HTV cards in Wentworth….
Hey, also mike is good looking…
Gillard responds to Mad Monk’s “Doctoring” claims.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093148.htm?section=justin
Imagine if Howard and costello both lose. They will just keep looking down the list. They will try and give the leadership to Downer who willl shake his head and say “I’ve had it before and i don’t want it again”. Suddenly Turnbull will reach across and say I’ll take that, but then Abbot will say “not so fast” shaking his finger, “we will vote for it”. Then all the rest of the liberals still standing will shout at Abbott “you idiot, it’s all your fault”.
Meanwhile while everyones backs are turned the Nationals will have crept out and gone to set up shop elsewhere.
Just on North Sydney, I think a significant factor in the huge projected swing is the higher-than-average education level of the electorate, which focuses attention on the intellectual bankruptcy of the government and relentless negativity of their campaigning that much more.
From Crikey Tips and Rumours re lack of Westpoll.
Sounds about right.
That attack on Bob Debus has already been run in the east of the Electorate (Blue Mountains Gazette) and went flatter than a pancake. Bob was using his Balmain base during the week to be close to his Ministerial office and then back to Leura at the weekends and often during the week. We certainly saw lots of him up here. Of course the Liberal candidate has been spending a lot of his time in Canberra, of all places, instead of spending all his time in the lower mountains!
Hey, that makes four of us in North Sydney! I will be at Mowbray West Public School in Lane Cove. Go Mike!!
560
Socrates Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
“Has anyone read any of the details of the regional program audit report yet? Never mind the nepotism, get a load of the inefficiency.”
The outstanding piece of foolery I’ve seen this year was a federal grant to build a “golf-course” from Kalgoorlie to South Australia…..some kind of stupidity, not a lot of money, but real….
Scotty, we’re taking over the party! We’ll have to use the PollBludger war cry to join into a flying wedge formation and storm the bar…
609
centaur_007 Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
“Imagine if Howard and costello both lose.”
…
A dream come true, centaur, along with Downer, Andrews, Abbott, Ruddock. Yhey deserve to get a thorough kicking, but even I guess it’s too much to expect.
blindoptimist: I remember that. The world’s largest golf course isn’t it?
Will, why is your partner said to see the LIberals go? You would have to be very one eyed to see for the country its a good thing – like more than ever before there is merit in other people’s issues with the govt eg: Far right IR strategy – maybe she needs to read some more independent information
Yeah will what’s his story. he doesn’t need to be oppressed his whole lifetime.
617
Will Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
blindoptimist: I remember that. The world’s largest golf course isn’t it?
Yes, a totally half-arsed idea. There are so many things a government could do with our money and this sounds like one of the more hair-brained.
Reminder Adelaide listeners.
Nicole on 5AA at 3.30. Amanda Blair.
Watch your back, Nic. In fact don’t even turn it..they put up a mock interview just after 1pm, making you out to be dumb as and making reference to your boobs!
Charmers!
Amanda is a fat evil jealous cow.
bird: Firstly, I’m gay, so partner is a he (but thanks for not making an assumption). I tried to imply that out of all the gay men at the Laird that night, my partner will be one of the few gay men there who will be upset that Howard is gone. My partner is from a well off family and has never liked Labor, says he is a swinger but is very much a Liberal voter. We don’t talk politics. In fact he is very anti-political actually, and isn’t engaged in the debate at all. He did the Oz Politics quiz and it came up saying he should vote Family First and One Nation of all parties. The news.com.au one said he should vote Labor and he said “WTF?”
On the other hand, I came from a working-class family who struggled to put food on the table. I got through uni and studied maths and physics, ended up getting a job in IT and within the 9 years of working I’ve even worked overseas and now making a very decent salary. My partner has never finished school, including 2 attempts at grade 12. He is bright, but doesn’t engage in things that much. Sadly I do think he is one of those people who goes in to the polling booth without even knowing any of the policies.
Someone else upset over Howard’s noncore promises.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/protester-dashes-towards-pm/20071116-1apd.html
There are a lot of gay people on pollbludger, hence why we get so many witty remarks. My point is that the libs have done everything they can to stop gay people from getting rights so purely on that point if nothing else he should not be voting Liberal and not call to Australia or pornography first either!
(by the way not gay myself but lots of gay friends)
Anyone with sound – what’s wrong with Keutzen?
Interesting Will – yes, its interesting about how people form their views. The real ideologues of the Right I just have nothing in common with on a values basis, but for alot of other people who vote Liberal they never questions the assumptions of their world view – Because I am interested in politics, values, ramifications for othe people, I would find it difficult to have a partner that did not want toengagewith that and also have their views open to debate, independent information – intelllectual honesty re: values outcome of certain spots on the spectrum etc – If it were me, i would certainly be trying to educate him..but that’s just me or challenge his world view. What I can say that if he were an ideologue, then you would not have much incommon. Some people are for elitist societies…anti egaliarian etc…….
Anyone hear Vaile’s attempts to counter the auditor’s findings today?
Sad…..very sad…..
and more than a little pathetic.
HE”S GOING DOWN MAN!
It was SO sad I balled my eyes out…..
bird: I know, but I love him, and that is what counts. All I’ve asked him to do is look at the facts, not go blindly. I let my friends influence him.
Debate on Skynews
Shut Coonans up. She is so rude interrupting & talking over everybody. This is not a debate. I work in telecommunications & she is telling fibs.
Actually blindoptimist, if you’re in here, one thing that is swaying my partner’s vote away from the Libs is Coonan. He work for Telstra and he thinks she s*cks! Her decisions about high-speed broadband has got him very annoyed. See, she is good for something
Can anyone report back on the Cornes interview? I would be interested to hear how she did.
ugh Coonan. The Cabinet is inhabited by some pretty unsavory characters, but Coonan isn’t out-awfulled by many. The fact she’s guaranteed another six years feeding in the trough is depressing.
Shock Horror: Jess Diaz, brother of the lovely, pouting Miss Universe 1969, seeking to represent Chifley in the Liberal interest at the forthcoming election actually lives within the boundaries of the Electoral Division of Parramatta.
Doesn’t matter, he has no chance, Price will get around 58%-60% of the primary vote anyway. I live in Chifley and I haven’t yet found 1 person who’s going to vote for the Liberals.
#623 –
“Someone else upset over Howard’s noncore promises.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/protester-dashes-towards-pm/20071116-1apd.html”
Sorry to burst your bubble, but that “protestor” was actually – surprise, surprise – yet another scumbag union organiser.
Coonan is a sad joke, I live on the Gold Coast, 6th biggest city in Oz and still can’t get ADSL2, why oh why do we even give her the luxury title Minister of Communication or whatever she is this week.
RESIGN
Sportingbet has Coalition @ $3.60 tonight, out from $3.35 this morning. Looks as though the crappers haven’t relieved the pressure!
coonan is so rude , national tv and she acts like that , can only imagine what she would be like in her office
yay to scumbug union organisers!
Whether anyone likes the Morgan poll, the fact is today’s figures are in line with the long term break of about 55/45 the aggregate of all the polls has been showing all year, so I am prepared to accept it as accurate. All we need now is the Morgan poll on marginals (Sunday) and a Newspoll on Monday to confirm there has been no narrowing and its all over red rover.
There was a previous post with a lift from Crikey about the West Australian sitting on a Westpoll. I suspect it may be in tomorrow (Saturday) as they ran the last Westpoll figures on a Saturday a few weeks ago. If so I (or I am sure someone will) post the figures here.
Interesting Newspoll numbers with SA and NSW coming back towards the Liberals while WA and QLD not moving while Victoria is moving towards the ALP.
All up I think the Liberals will do well to get above 45% TPP, but history shows the ALP tend to improve over the last week of the campaign.
I’m tipping with seat predictions to come later in the week ALP 55.3 Liberal/ Nationals 44.7