• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 13 » Show All
Edward St John:
Please be more specific and link to your actual blog.
Correction: I meant to say SKY telecast in Wentworth.
68 – tdt: Beacause a lot of those people have been wooed by Howard. Now they know he’s going, and they see Costello, who’s as popular as the proverbial in an elevator.
Lastly, they know about Work Choioces and what it has done to their conditions and entitlements.
Those are two large differences which I can identify.
Thanks PP – you are a champ!!!!!
I should of mentioned that I will mail out the shirts, that’s why I will need William to act as an go between, if he collects people’s addresses for me and flicks them on then I will stick the stuff in the mail.
BrissyRod@81
BrissyRod @ 81
Possum’s saying 99 ALP seats on ACN swing.
WhoGivesaRats @ #63,
I can see your point.
In the best of all possible worlds Rudd’s speech should have been appreciated for the responsible statement that it was. The auditor General’s report should be compulsory reading for every citizen. And Abbott was foolish to advise disgruntled employees to just get another job.
But this isn’t Best-Of-All-Possible World. This is Howard World.
In Howard World politicians who shovel pork at the Battlers are admired and voted for. So scratch Rudd’s speech plus the Auditor General’s Report. In Howard World, you really do tell the boss to get f*cked and get another job. In Howard World the instant gratification is here and now, while the good vibrations down the track are for people who can afford to wait for them.
It’s just that the pundits have been so wrong, so often, on so many accounts that their opinion is the last thing I’d rely on.
Not sure if you guys visit the Daily Flute, but there’s some real analysis purlers there. Today, there’s a comment about Shamaham’s latest:
I nearly forgot to read Dennis Shanahanahan’s silver lining to poll results that give the ALP a 40 seat majority, and there’s a couple of crackers:
“A special analysis of Newspolls conducted exclusively for The Australian reveals John Howard and the Government inching closer in NSW and recovering from a black hole in South Australia.”
Inching? Like a maggot inches towards a sheep’s bum? Hardly a march towards a fifth term.
And even though this special and exclusive analysis of state by state breakdowns show the mother of all whoopings, we get:
“But Labor figures continue to warn that the election will be closer than suggested in the national published polls because of state and regional differences. Coalition strategists are adamant the election will come down to a seat-by-seat fight on November 24 as Labor seeks the 16 electorates it needs to win government.”
Ooh, the tension.
http://www.dailyflute.com/
jimbob save the postage if you are in Melb i will come and collect. if not i have dionated and william please feel free to pass on address to JimBOb
William,
I’m picking up well over a grand from Centrebet thanks to Ross Daniels taking Ryan off the Liberal uberpratt Michael Johnson with an 11% swing (if you all think Pyne is the uberpratt, that’s just because you haven’t seen enough of Johnson
).
So, have advanced a slice of that to Pollbludger today and would ask that everybody who lives in this blog and loves it do likewise.
Whoops, I put this in the other thread instead of this one:
Someone in the press gallery has done some research and found that John Howard has lost the last week in the last 4 elections. Even the 2004 which was a disaster for the ALP. Before this one starts its a disaster for the Liberals.
Newhouse seems to be doing everything in his power to sabotage Labor’s chances in Wentworth. He has been disappointing and mealy-mouthed throughout the campaign, and I have no idea what he has to offer Parliament and the people. Quite frankly, even though I desperately want a Labor government (and will still vote ALP in Wentworth) I would prefer Turnbull to win the seat. I want small-l liberals in the Liberal party to dilute the effect of the Abbotts, Andrews etc.
oh oh I see my paypall adress is still in London, Jimbob i am at centaur_007@yahoo.com. I will give you the details. I would like lots of pens/pencils for my booth too. It might work a treat.
Mr Courtice will be remembered by history, if he is remembered at all, as a miserable traitor to his cause and to the party which placed him into Parliament. Even Billy Hughes will be more kindly remembered by the ALP. What a waste of air Courtice is.
Sports Acumen now has the Coalition at $3.75, ALP $1.27, compared to $3.60 for coalition at 9am.
Lindsay voter Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 9:20 am
Scaper @ 24, if you’re still wondering, it’s usually $20.
Thanks, and I’ll throw more in for beer money
William, I use a hosting company that provides 5 TB of band width you should never get any extra charges. Its a good one, contact me if you want further information.
Albert Ross@57
Albert, do you have a link/reference for ‘The Mad Monk’ claiming the tape is doctored. I was there, and he said it, amongst other things. Plenty of other people there as well, maybe about 100 or more.
Geezuz, even Samantha Maiden is starting to take notice……I wonder who drew her attention to it?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/spincycle/index.php/theaustralian/comments/little_fight_left_in_dispirited_incumbents
Thanks everyone for the links to Antony’s calculator.
Very big swings in places. I usually take 2% off the ALP – but this still puts Labor in an election winning situation.
My prediction is revised to 81 seats.
Yes Benedict arnolds are always remembered. They come from a long line judas, benedict himself, Dr Smith 9from lost in space), Gavin o’cconor etc.
I hope daniel ecuyer wins in wentworth. More Savvy and sensible than the lot of them.
It might be better if Newhouse pulls out of the race and the Greens candidate goes up against Turnball.
119 – Observer, he said it to John laws this morning on 2ue.
As much as it might annoy you, give Laws a call and tell him Abbott is telling prk pies.
Can you share with us what other delightful messages the honourable Minister shared with the audience?
123 – I think Turnbull might hold on. The demographics still favour him.
Newhouse seems to be a disaster.
Are you suggesting an election night mirror?
I think Labor is hiding Newhouse in order to prevent him from saying anything controversial or “off-message” – they want to set the agenda for every day without any unwanted distractions.
I hope those mumblings about North Sydney are true. That’s where I put my free $100 bet. at $7. hmmmmm……
Bushfire Bill @ 20 & 108
I share your cynicism about the motives of many voters, and I think most of us share your apprehension about taking a Labor victory as a given just because the “experts” predict it. We’ve been close before ….
But what does give me encouragement is that the Coalition strategy of bribing the elctorate to its eyeballs is wearing thin. It’s transparent pork barrelling, causes resentment (people do realise it’s THEIR money, not Howard’s and Costello’s, therefore it’s proof they’ve been overtaxed) and they’ve begun to wake up to the cycle of tax cut – rate rise – tax cut – rate rise etc. They’ve also noticed that the feeding troughs are wheeled out just before each election – meanwhile our hospitals and public schools are starved etc etc.
I know the polls aren’t the same as voting day, but those which followed the last big budget giveaway – which won plaudits from the “experts” – well, we’re still waiting for the bounce! There was no popular reaction then, the polls have been remarkably consistent, and I don’t believe the latest promises by a man to whom the public is clearly tuning out are going to make much difference now. Howard smells of death.
Word has it that Tony Abbott is on the Labor Campaign payroll
Yeah, on double pay as well.
So continuing Lefty E’s question from a previous thread, apart from the Brisbane City council, are there any major local governments in Australia where the Liberal Party runs endorsed candidates?
ShowsOn: He isn’t on double pay, they got rid of that when they gave him an AWA under SerfChoices
LOL, this morning on the Today show Abbott was proud of what he said, but he’s had a change of heart now and is denying it claiming Labor doctored the tape. What a tool lol.
Abbott accuses Labor of ‘dirty tricks’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092647.htm
Poor Tony Abbott. He now claims a sneaky video made him say things he did not say. I wonder if this cute defence could stand up in a court of law?
I’m sure we will see a flurry of Libs running for local council elections now.
Youtube humour: Kevin 007 – The Man with the Golden Jaw:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzZrHDHVEVw&eurl
Poor Abbott is just positioning himself (trying badly though) to be in a slightly better light after the election loss: “see, see the video of me? I didn’t really agree with everything we were saying about WorkChoices… sorta… kinda”
Maybe the drag queen, ‘Pauline Pantsdown’, could become ‘Toni Abort’ and string together words like the infamous ‘back door man’ song.
Abbot’s just showing he’s better than Howard.
It took Howard a full day to say “Sorry” – “No I’m not.”
Abbot can do it in a few hours!
Off topic for just a sec but the Herald Sun in Victorias has finally become the comic book many people thought it was. The current dramas in the Vic police have been has been explained via comic strip panels in todays edition. Perhaps all news can be presented this way from now on?
Is this dumbing down taken to extremes or a very practical way of explaining important issues?
Good grief Abbott is desperate. How has it been edited? It is plain as day!… You can’t even catch the Tories on tape nowadays without them trying to wriggle out of what they have said….
I hear there are a lot of libs applying for the presidents position at the Nar Nar Goon Yellow Bellied Parrot Appreciation Society
ESJ@77. I’ll pay that one – pretty funny. Newcastle is the heartland though – Abbott would probably win anywhere thereabouts if he said he was a Labor man. Combet will record a massive vote.
William, now you know that your website is almost exclusively read by ALP members (except me).
Where do they “hide” Labor candidates? Is there like a big “secure” facility where they feed them and water them?
Yes Martin – Im starting to wonder if the answer is no: the Libs (qua Libs, at least) dont control any local governments in the entire nation.
Which would mean, I believe, the Liberal Party flagship representative will be a lame duck Brisbane mayor who doesn’t control his own council.
It doesn’t get any better than this.
There’s plenty of posters here who aren’t ALP members Howard C. Note there’s a difference between supporters, people who might preference them and members.
The same place Andrew Southcott hides.
ESJ,
I suspect that they place them in the same facilities where the Libs hide their more ‘troublesome’ ministers (Andrews, Nelson, etc). It’s more economically responsible…
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 13 » Show All