• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 13 » Show All
BTW, while LTEP and Howard C are talking about ALP members, I have to say my status on this has changed. So I’m being upfront now; I applied to join the Kooyong Branch of the ALP. So yes you can now call me a hack if you want.
Yes Edward (146), it’s right beside the “secure” facility holding Downer, Andrews, Nelson and, between escapes, Abbott. Don’t they wish Abbott was there now.
8 days till the Labor tears
Coalition will rule for years!
Value!
Yes, I’m a (recent) Greens member myself.
However, Ive made it perfectly clear I wont ever hand out HTVs for them unless they pref ALP. Frankly, if they even handed me an “open ticket” i’d tell them where to shove it.
My sense is about 75% of Greens feel the same way.
I’m definitely not an ALP member, however, I will always preference the ALP before LNP.
Laurie Oakes, in the latest treeware Bulletin is advisng the coalition to run with the message “Don’t Vote labor because they’ll get rid of Workchoices.”
Oakes thinks his idea is exceptionally daring and their last chance.
8 days till the Labor tears… of joy
Coalition will rule for years… in their dreams
Oh the humanity!!!
There are a handful around Victoria, which ones exactly I can’t tell you.
I think Glen Eira, Knox and Geelong off the top of my head.. but I could be wrong.
LOL, GB,ShowsON, Swing Lowe,
Yes just why are there so many vegetables in politics on both sides? In Singapore the entire cabinet have doctorates (and in real topics too not Kylie Minogue studies).
As a certain powerbroker said to me years ago “You dont want too many chiefs, Indians are very important”
I guess I should have recorded the proceeedings. But I was stuck in amongst a bunch of Tories and didn’t want to draw to much attention to myself, especially if I was recording the session. If the entire proceedings were recorded then it would be a real opener for many people on the basis of what the likes of ‘The Mad Monk’ says when he thinks he is amongst his ilk. They certainly had a good stacking to the meeting. And I’ll say it again here, ‘The Mad Monk’ said that ‘if a person is in poverty it is by choice’, such a comment is reprehensible.
I know it’s a poxy online poll but this at the Age.
A week out from election day, have you decided who you will vote for?
Yes – 98%
No – 2%
Total Votes: 2487
Oh dear Laurie… I honestly have been hearing that message loud and clear for months. Remember that econtech report? Oh wait… that wasn’t the Liberal Party… it was the Business Alliance (or whatever they called it).
Ok then… remember their dire warning on interest rates should WC be abolished? Really silly stuff Mr Oakes.
Lefty E @ 147 – it could well get better; Greg Rowell has a good chance in Brisbane in (I think) March.
I wouldn’t trust an age online poll, red wombat. Being a left-leaning publication, it’s readership would have long ago decided to vote out Howard.
I joined the ALP while in London after watching that Tampa rorte from a far. I was disgusted and then I heard that ‘always wear sunscreen song” which says join a political party. Lol, but it did come on the radio when i was reading the age headlines in 2001
And now after 6 years I just elected to branch exec.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
The Abbott clip is up now, about 3 minutes into the 3rd clip on the right (”Report scathing of Govt’s handling of regional grants program”).
Looks pretty bad for Mista Abbott!
Labor in power nationwide.
Libs going on a Nantucket sleigh ride.
Swing Lowe at 137
The Man with the Golden Jaw. Excellent. I hope that chick in the final scene is Therese.
157 LOL
159 ’swing lowe’ is that the rugby – oh you lost! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
LOL
RE Newspoll. WTF there’s a 5 % slump for the ALP in SA. What’s going on there that I’ve missed?
Bezhnev’s entire cabinet had Ph.D.s as well, but that didn’t help.
Our system is based around very tight party discipline. Even in the U.K. backbenchers are free to vote however they want on any particular issue, which leads to better policy instead of partisanship.
That’s my theory anyway.
There have been a few state government issues going around that probalby haven’t helped.
BUT, if Handshin is only 2% behind in Sturt, that means the swing must be 5 – 6% which is probably enough to get 4 rather than 3 seats.
I have just seen the youtube the Man with the Goldon Jaw – its great. I suggest all go and see it
How Mad Tony’s form? claiming the ALP has cut and paste his speech!
They just don’t get it: part of their lack of electoral appeal is that they’ve become such naked, contemptuous, serial public liars.
ShowsOn: I understand where you’re coming from, but just look at the USA where all the money in the world is poured in to lobbying of congress members and senators that don’t follow a party line.
All these 58s/ 59s flying around are blips, Id say, Paladin.
We’re just seeing it settle in to the realistic (landslide) territory of 53s: with a 50 low in WA and a 55 high in Vic.
ShowsOn @ 172. Thanks, but Iemma in NSW isn’t exactly helping either and there’s no collapse there. I’m starting to get worried. This is 5% on primaries FFS. There’s been very little resources from the ALP go into SA. Time for a reverse firewall I say and start splashing the cash on marketing.
172 – ALP are being creamed in SA and elsewhere.
Howard to win by maj 12
Albury City has three Liberal councillors and one de-facto one out of nine, but they imploded over 12 months ago and have now been comprehensively side-lined.
I’m sure that Campbell never thought that he would reach such heights in the Liberal Party, especially without actually moving out of local government.
Yeah hay ….. Shananhan published my comment on his article today
….
“The coalition lost the chance to claim the economy as their stronghold when Howard couldn’t keep his promise from the last election on interest rates. Wake up and smell the coffee, Dennis. “
True, but at least it means at elections the members have to argue about what they PERSONALLY acheived during their recent term.
They can’t just say “I’m part of a government that kept interest rates low”. Voters want to know what bills they sponsored, what policies they implimented.
I think placing that burden improves the average, I don’t think it makes EVERY politician good.
At least we don’t have career backbenchers like Alan Cadman and Trash Draper.
“Don’t Vote labor because they’ll get rid of Workchoices.”
You could add to that
“Don’t vote labor because they will not allow Nuclear Power stations to be built in your area”
or
“Don’t vote labor, they are going to bring in broadband for everyone and computers for kids”
Or “Don’t vote labor they are going to offer more scholarships”
Warming to my theme: I guess *technically* its still possible the senior Lib would be the Senate President if the ACT Green doesn’t get up; at least till next July.
But the numbers look good for the ACT Green. Very good indeed.
Oh I don’t know, The BCC elections are coming up
National = jolly good choice for Australia
Labor = bit of a waste of time really
The paper version of the SMH has the article on the polling on the right front of the main page under the headline “This man is one week from oblivion” and a picture of Howard with a very downcast face
Where’s the Oakes article?
tdt, that’s roughly my final prediction as well. I’ll have an article posted on Fair News in the next few days. I have some minor adjusments to do from the latest cumulative Newspoll first. Nice to know I’m going to be agreeing with Possum.
Surely Laurie Oakes suggestion was tongue in cheek?
To add to Arbie Jay’s slogans
“Don’t vote labor because wages will always be lower under Workchoices”
Just on Channel 7 coverage:
while not overly impressed with reilly, that McCabe has got to be “jocular”
she has called a couple of weeks for the coalition that clearly they didn’t “win” – this week and last week. on the previous occassion she kept referring to the “garrett” gaffe….apparently that overwhelmed the RBA…obviously the government planned to have an interest rate during their campaign, helen…as peter costello told (not) jon faine….
and these people are paid?
if the polls hold and Labor is elected, she deserves a special place in the gallery of journalist jokers…
dennis shanahan (fake car story)
caroline overington (harassment of candidate)
mccabe….just plain dumb
again, i hope there will be some reasoned analysis of just how poorly the public have been served by the MSM….and its been a constant for much of howard’s reign, with their failure to demand any accountability re AWB just the most egregious example…
DfA 179:
And they run as endorsed Liberal candidates?
Labor is advertising that they will get rid of Workchoices and Laurie wants the Libs to help Labor’s campaign? Amazing.
178 Uh, ALP is still ahead. Do you need a screen reader?
I’m just saying that I don’t think ALP should just assume everything is in the bag in SA. They’ve got 3 in the bag and I want 5 (Sturt & Grey. Botthby would have been if wasn’t for Cornes)
That state by state breakdown bounces around a lot. Look at Victoria which has gone 47 – 52 – 50. It is doubtful that there was actually that big a change in 4 or 5 weeks.
On those S.A. figures Makin, Kingston, Wakfield are gone for the Libs, the only contests left are Boothby and Sturt. The Sturt poll in the paper today says Labor are still in a chance with getting one of those two.
Julie, get your head out of the sand.
193 – please don’t feed them. Then they go away.
Coalition gain Port Moresby
All promoting WorkChoices would do is reinforce the Liberals’ base, it wouldn’t win swinging voters, hence it would be an admission of defeat.
After ALL those WorkChoices adverts, it would be commical seeing even more.
187
The 20 Nov treeware version of The Bulletin. Oakes is basically saying that the Coalition are stuffed. Liberal strategists are comforting themselves with the thought that at least economic mgmt is at the forefront of the campaign coming in to the last week. Hence the irony of his desperate strategy message.
“But it is less their issue than it might have been had Swan proved the weak link Costello so confidently predicted.”
Only if you get the sand out of your head.
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 13 » Show All