• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 13 » Show All
There have been some truly amazing feats of journalistic bias/idiocy during this campaign. This has been the most interesting/annoying aspect for me.
The ALP has been on message.
The Coalition has been on the nose.
The press pack has been on LSD.
I’m glad to see Edward appreciates people with doctorates. We could even be friends.
coalition 12% clear in bennelong
ALP = LOL
I often see some folks on here dredging up past quotes from people on the site who have said something a bit foolish.
I’d like to see us compile a list of classic *journalist* quotes from the year. Maybe Possum or someone could then pop them up on their site so the general public can admire the stupid things that some journos have come up with.
How about: “20 to 1: Ridiculous comments by political journalists in 2007″.
I’d be willing to put some money on Shanahan coming in at no. 1.
The Libs have spent millions of OUR money, as have business groups, trying to sell Workchoices. No change to the polls. What makes Laurie think it will work now?
Bushfire Bill (20) I’m a little with you on this. I’m not popping the corks yet.
However, it is worth noting that the demographic you mainly refer to – the so called “battlers” – deserted the coalition the moment Howard attacked their job security, pay and working conditions with work choices. Yes, they have calculators and they can add up, but even they – as dopey and cynical as some of them are – know that what Howard has taken from them far outweighs anything he is now promising (not to mention their underlying fear that he would take workchoices even further if he got back).
I believe that workchoices was Howard’s most fundamental mistake. It rippled through all layers of the electorate and for the battlers in particular it was a deal breaker. The constantly high Labor primary vote all year (again, 47% in the ACN poll) shows that these lost votes have never returned to Howard, whatever he has promised. And he has promised plenty before this latest lot.
Having said that, he has certainly gone right over the top this time – his desperation knows no bounds – and I will be very relieved to finally see the end of him in a week’s time.
ave it 07: coalition 12% clear in bennelong
Huh? Where did you hear that?
Surely The Australian’s headline “Howard checks Rudd’s march” would have to feature pretty high up the list.
It was a real “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman
Ave it 07, it’s amazing just how out of touch you can be living so far away. You are in your own fantasyland. Only a miracle can save John Howard
207 – i made it up
ave it 07: or is this your happy vision of how election night will turn out?
So Ave it 07, are you Shanahana-scares-your-nana or Overthetopington?
all – lol
Remember when ALP were ahead in the polls last time and still lost
You are all SCARED
It was un-Australian. He didn’t realise that we all want a growing economy, but we don’t want an Americanised Labor market system. We don’t need it, our economy grows using enterprise bargains.
I wish we could have one more decent Galaxy poll on Bennelong next week before the election.
Just to really watch Howie squirm.
There’s some competent fisherman and some pelagics with big hungry mouths on this site!!
Ave it 07, I hope you’ve contributed to the upkeep of this website, given that your are purposely posting such silly messages.
# 145 Howard C Says: November 16th, 2007 at 10:47 am
I’m not, nor have I ever been, a member of the ALP or of a union.
No, I’m worried that a poll may Maxine ahead, which could lead to a sympathy vote.
Ave it@210, you cons are in good form today.
Makin will be close.
Martin B @ 191. Last election was the first time that there were endorsed candidates in Albury City for decades. There have always been people commonly known to have been backed by one party or the other but I think the Libs have really opened a can of worms here now.
The reason for this is that the NSW government, with bi-partisan support, have changed the electoral rules so that to get an above the line spot you have to lodge a ticket with (if I recall correctly) a minimum of five people, where it used to be only two. This obviously helps the party organisations at the expense of local groups who might not be able to get five people willing to appear on a ballot.
ShowsOn — you think so? I agree that Max would probably still be ahead, but I don’t know about a sympathy vote. I think it might have the opposite effect as more people jump ship…
Phil Robins, you may be correct but we haven’t seen any evidence of that yet. It certainly hasn’t come through in polling.
Most people say the bandwagon effect increases the margin, but my worry is that for a P.M. it would be different.
To answer my own question, yes, and I see that endorsed Liberal condidates run in many local government elections in NSW.
However the Libs don’t even have the numbers (in their own right) on the Woolhara Council (7/15), and don’t seem to run endorsed candidates in any of the North Shore councils, so I suspect that don’t have a majority in their own right on any council in NSW.
220 – its all about the optimism!
See you tomorrow GN (in London)
Somone on Radio National’s Bush Telegraph says McGauran’s seat of Gippsland is in play. Compere said: “Gosh …”
No 314
What is un-Australian is the recalcitrant bloggers here who are opposed to reform.
Workchoices was a necessary reform and really the proof of its success is in the pudding.
You can’t ignore the macro figures forever.
ShowsOn (214) Perfectly stated. Workchoices IS “un-Australian”. It is totally at odds with the history and culture of this country and I still find it amazing that Howard did not understand that.
One thing is for sure. If the Liberals go down in a shower of shit next week – as seems very likely – it will be a long, long time before any Liberal prime minister ever tries it again.
GP. WorkChoices AWAs are no more popular than pre-WorkChoices AWAs. I still haven’t seen proof it was necessary. Furthermore, if they’re so great Joe Hockey would be releasing more data on them extremely willingly.
I don’t accept that unemployment wouldn’t have gone down without WorkChoices, because it was already going down before it was introduced and can’t be put down solely to WorkChoices AWAs. We still need a lot more data to look into the effects of WorkChoices… and that data isn’t being made available. You have to wonder why.
GP you need to get your head out of your a…
Wake up and smell the coffee sweetie…LOL
To an Australian historian: wasn’t deregulation of the workplace behind PM Stanley Bruce losing his seat in 1929? I’m willing to bet that after this election something as blatantly audaciously unfair as WorkChoices is never attempted again. Two attempts – two lots of humiliations, and two PMs heads (and seats).
Ultimate Rabbit: The New Leadership.
1. Sunday, 18/11, 5pm. Newspoll done. It is still 55/45 Labor way.
2. 7pm. Leak to Coalition HQ. Crisis meeting.
3. 9pm. Press conference called at Kirribilli House. Howard announces he is stepping down as the Liberal leader.
4. 10pm. Costello installs a the new leader with Turnbull as his deputy.
5. The New Leadership for the Liberal and one week to salvage something because there is nothing to loose.
Dont laugh, it could happen.
No 231
The ultimate absurdity of the ACTU campaign has been revealed in any case. The sky has not fallen, real wages have grown, unemployment has decreased, as has productivity.
No 232
Suffering from foot-in-mouth syndrome, Mr Hunt?
re Bennelong: the voters will soon be getting the message that they are no longer voting for a prime minister if they haven’t already figured that out.
So I doubt there’ll be much inclination to vote in a beaten leader who’ll hand them a by-election quick smart.
Nup, this last week seals his fate. Maxine has been a nose in front for months, and now the tired old nag will fall over before the finish line.
Workchoices was grade a shite from day one. Every progressive voter, every environmentally concerned voter, every wage slave owes a great deal of thanks to the union movement and the ‘your rights at work’ campaign for doing the groundwork to get this noxious government thrown out.
Of course Labor has pretty much adopted WorkChoices in its WorkChoicesLite policy program so not much will change in that regard.
Howard loves calling many progressive social causes “un-Australian”, well that flakey term should be thrown back at him, becuase WorkChoices is the most un-Australian policy of all time.
McGauren should be in trouble, he is the thickest front bencher in parliament.
No GP, my name is John Hunt and not Tony Abbott , sweetie…LOL
GP (235) If you think the sky hasn’t fallen in yet, just wait another 8 days.
It seems like the LNP have activated their self-destruct sequence. Be ready for a series of implosions along the front bench.
Being on the defensive over various mistakes is a bad look going into the last week. Being defensive makes you look like a loser and certainly never wins votes.
Howard still to confront the Crean’s cor ruption allegation used with regard to the Auditor General’s report on AM. AND that will appear on TV news and radio and regardless of what he says the result will be negative.
Abbott contesting the video simply keeps the issue alive a bit longer – well done.
Coming into the last week the general impression will be of a tired Government dying and a positive Opposition rising – thats the impression undecideds will be taking into the ballot box.
No 241
Perhaps it is Peter Garrett? LOL
It must make KR and some of the more cynical Labor people laugh when they see sentiments like “Dave from Albury”, a bit like the Russian peasants who looked to the Tsar for protection.
Generic Person, me and my family have been crushed by WorkChoices, my pay has been reduced, my wife’s employment prospects were decimated and you have the cheek to say the opposite!
No 246
Keep reciting the union propaganda mate.
Well GP I’d like to look at all the figures in any case. I’m still yet to be convinced we couldn’t have achieved all of those things without removing protections for workers.
To some people, increases in real wages aren’t the world. They’d like a balance between work and social life. At my dad’s work they’ve been forced to work Saturday’s and to give up their early Fridays. I say forced because they were told to take it or leave it. In a country town they don’t have the option of going elsewhere for work (at least not easily.)
I just don’t buy into the whole idea that we’re not entitled to more rights at work. I suspect a lot of other people don’t either.
OK Snoopy just how was your pay reduced ?
How has legislation prevented your wife from being employed? Presumably if pay and conditions have been reduced more people would be offering work?
Dont be a propagandist, give us some facts?
BTW
the ALP campaign has already responded to the Oakes fantasy and Darn is spot on:
“However, it is worth noting that the demographic you mainly refer to – the so called “battlers” – deserted the coalition the moment Howard attacked their job security, pay and working conditions with work choices. Yes, they have calculators and they can add up, but even they – as dopey and cynical as some of them are – know that what Howard has taken from them far outweighs anything he is now promising (not to mention their underlying fear that he would take workchoices even further if he got back).
I believe that workchoices was Howard’s most fundamental mistake. It rippled through all layers of the electorate and for the battlers in particular it was a deal breaker. The constantly high Labor primary vote all year (again, 47% in the ACN poll) shows that these lost votes have never returned to Howard, whatever he has promised. And he has promised plenty before this latest lot”
As the ALP now says:
“Mr Howard didn’t tell us about WorkChoices
Now he says “working families in Australia have never been better off.” But penalty rates, overtime and job security have gone. Now he’s retiring anyway, so what’s the point voting for him . Sorry mate, not this time!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptzRgfYKoLk
that’s gotta hurt and perfectly timed to run off the back of Mr Abbott…
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 13 » Show All