• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
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Mrs Gusface lost her job – that’s sad.
Let me let you into a secret – people have lost jobs since we moved from feudalism to capitalism.
What does it prove about WorkChoices? Zip
GP #276,
Here’s the base of that accusation: the speech that Nick Minchin (remember him? Howard Gov’t minister) apologising to the HR Nicholls Society that WorkChoices didn’t go far enough, and pledging to them an extension of the business community supported the Coalition in for another term.
Also, the “L for Latham” campaign was the biggest scare campaign since Menzies and his “Reds under the bed” take on electioneering.
GP # 284,
Everyone has the credibility to have their words at least read – even LP trolls like you.
GP #288,
Go see Adam’s site (psephos.adam-carr.net). You will find, just inside the front page, a debunking of the LP’s absurd claim of 70% union bosses.
PS you can expect unionisation rates to rise 5% or so in 2008.
Plenty of evidence around that low-level de facto intimidation of employees has discouraged potential members joining up in the last few years. Examples include abolition of payroll deductions for new members under HEWRRS in Higher ed etc.
That means you should forget law, and study basic literacy.
Business will rue the day it ever heard of Work Choices (as Paul Keating said), because in order to get the bill up, the govt relied on the corporations power in the constitution rather than the traditional arbitration/ IR power.
In other words, instead of having to go to a neutral IR umpire like it used to, a govt can now simply legislate certain proections/ standards through the parliamentary process and get through what it wants. The High Court has said as much.
Eventually an alternative govt will get in (be it next weekend or whenever) and business/ the libs have gifted them a framework for carrying through their agenda without running it by the IRC or its equivalent.
Keep dreaming LeftyE Keep dreaming
RGee stop arguing with these Wallies and get back to work or hop in your car and go and do some work in a marginal where your time will be better spent. I think these personal attack/ debates are degenerating into a self indulgent wankfest. All the bloggers hear are committed and nothing any of can say will change a single vote.
No 341
Well good on you Mrs Gusface.
The fact that you were able to get another job is a testament to this government’s success.
328
GP who are you blaming for the Libs disastrous campaign and likely annihilation?
Someone care to take responsibility for WC, Interest Rates, Regional Rorts?
Anyone????
Good point. It means in future Labor are going to go to elections with the best I.R. based wedges – increasing the minimum wage, increasing supperannuation contributions.
The Liberals can oppose any of it at their electoral peril.
355 Spot on. the ckecks and balances have been removed for both sides. Another core Lib article of faith rejected by Howard. it worked for both sides.
GP
Bit of a reality check mate. A couple of close friends work in the public service in Canberra. Not at the top but close enough to know whats going on. Apparently it was Howard who watered down Serfchoices from the more draconian policies being advocated from Costello and most of the front bench. So if Howard goes who’s going to stop Costello implementing his radical ideology? Labor has it right when they say it will be extended … to the detriment of those unable to effectively negotiate for themselves.
And don’t forget, these laws could be in place when the next downturn/recession comes. Can’t wait to have all the serfs accepting $5 an hour rather than staving.
Oh so true Burgey The High Court Workchoices decision was a Federalists wet dream. Future Federal Governments would appear to have carte blanche.
You’re just like Glen! You think we live in the Soviet Union, you think anything good that happens to people is because of the government running a command economy.
Maybe it was because of the personals skills and initiative?
More Liberal hacks that want to be Karl Marx, will it ever end?
ESJ @ 351 – You don’t work at the coal face, comrade. Employers have been emboldened by WorkChoices, they try things on that 3 years ago they wouldn’t have dared under the WRA.
No 349
My point is that bird should stop giving me a spiel about balancing both sides of the argument, when clearly that’s not happening to any certain degree in this forum.
Btw, Ave it 07 (from way back),
The name “Swing Lowe” is a play on the name of the electorate I live in.
I’m not a Pom (god forbid), I’m just trying in a really lame way to look clever…
But you don’t even present arguments, which is even worse.
12.30 and no response from Howard on “Rural Rorts”………….coward!
No 368
Neither do you, so what’s your point?
Yay, another b*tch fight between GP and ShowsOn (and probably another half a dozen lefties on this blog) about who makes the more valuable contribution…
Can’t we talk about the Morgan poll that’s expected to come out today, instead?
I do, you just don’t understand what I write.
Instead of having a bitch about it, take the initiative, get educated and learn to read. You’re always looking for someone else to blame instead of taking personal responsibility for your inability to comprehend arguments.
Swing Lowe it’s a morgan poll.. it isn’t worth discussing
No 372
We already know Morgan has a heavy ALP bias, so it’s a worthless poll.
I’m hanging out for a galaxy.
anybody got a link to the mcharg ad for bennelong?
No 372
And showsOn continues to shove foot into mouth. Congratulations.
OK, if no one cares about the Morgan (I know I don’t), what do people think the effect will be of this?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768831-29277,00.html
Gee Serfchoices really gets you bludgers worked up doesnt it! I’ve actually never met anyone on an AWA.
I believe the Sunday Mail chain have different editors to their daily sister papers. Does this mean we will start getting papers endorsements on Sunday? This would be very illuminating!
The placeholder is up on Morgan’s site. It only says “Fed vote” currently…
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/
I can’t believe that you guys are still arguing over Work Choices just 8 days out from the election.
G.P.,
Why are always so angry? You’re so critical of this blog but you keep coming back.
William,
I think you deserve some pocket money for having to put up with all this petty bickering from both sides.
Diogenes @ 378,
All the Sunday papers should come out with their own endorsements separate to the daily newspapers. Their endorsements should come out on election day itself…
377 SL
Storm in a teacup – can only play well for the ALP – amongst rusted on torys.
The Tories here should face reality. Whatever the reality behind WorkChoices (and I think that, based on the infamous “2c/hour rise”, the “operational reasons” dismissal/rehiring and Hockey’s ongoing refusal to reveal how many AWAs strip out conditions, that the ALP is closer to the truth than the LP is), the perception is that WC represents a sell-out of the workers by the LP. This is why they’re on the nose. Also, Howard and his ministers aren’t helping matters with their blatant spin, pork-barrelling and media manipulation, not to mention Abbott, who has to be an undercover ALP agent.
End result – unless something happens or ALL of hte pollsters are completely wrong, the LP is gone is 8 days. Without a single State party in coherent shape, they’ll be a long time in the wilderness.
SL #371,
Unfortunately, once an argument like this gets started, the only way out is to start a new thread.
No 380
I’m contemplating a donation of $100 for William’s trouble.
LOL @ ESJ
Well the ad on the Libs website front page is already redundant
And Unions WA – The peak body here in WA is distancing themselves of the CFMEU stoush.
will only please Paul Armstromg, Perth Now and 6PR
Hahhaha well done. Now you’re not even TRYING to construct an argument.
383 MC
Too right. GP is only interested in insults and generating frustration. No credible arguments at all. At least Glen has a reasoned (if misguided) approach.
Just checked the betting markets and theres not much movement there, I think most people are placing bets based on who they’d like to win as oposed to who they think will win. Mckew in Bennalong should be odds on if the polls are anything to go by so $2.65 is an incredibly good value bet, Handsin in Boothby is less of a chance but is still about $2.30.
William should start up a swear jar. Anyone who says Rodent must contribute $1 to the site. I can’t think up a suitably repeated word for the Lib posters.
Krudd
LTEP,
The obvious one is Krudd. I’m sure there are others, tho…
So what time does Howard come out of the crisis meeting with Crosby/Textor? Or has he gone into hiding like The Gimp?
A week ago some Liberal HQ leaks say Howard talks everything over with Grahame Morris.
Krudd just never has done it for me. It’s far too obvious. I suppose we could make it references to ear wax. Because that never gets tiresome.
“The gimp’s asleep.”
“Well you’d better wake him up hadn’t you!”
377
Swing Lowe Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 12:35 pm “OK, if no one cares about the Morgan (I know I don’t), what do people think the effect will be of this?”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22768831-29277,00.html
…
The effect in WA will be positive for Labor. The CFMEU’s bullying industrial profile and Archer’s links to Brian Burke have been bad news for Labor here, so their resignations will lighten the load considerably.
No 390
We have the maturity to address politicians by their real names.
SL #377,
I have an uncle who runs an enginerring subcontractor firm. He has no time for the CFMEU, Joe McDonald or Kevin Reynolds. McD and Reynolds being expelled (effectively what happened to Reynolds) will simply make the ALP look more palatable to the businesses in Perth who have suffered from CFMEU tactics – and they are many. Looks like McDonald won’t be back. This story certainly won’t hurt the ALP out West.
Not as bad as when Christopher Pyne refered to Jim Bacon as “Salty Bacon”.
I wonder how many votes that swung?
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