• Newspoll’s latest cumulative results from the last fortnight with state-by-state breakdowns can be viewed at The Australian. Roy Morgan has performed the same exercise with its data from October, providing both Senate polling and state-by-state lower house figures. Of note are ACT Senate figures suggesting Greens candidate Kerrie Tucker should easily win a seat at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Malcolm Turnbull has been thrown a lifeline in Wentworth with the emergence of doubts about the validity of Labor candidate George Newhouse’s nomination. Newhouse’s resignation from the New South Wales Consumer Trader and Tenancy Disputes Tribunal – an “office of profit under the Crown” – was not received until the day of the formal declaration of nominations, when it appeared to be required by noon the day before. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian today reports on legal advice Newhouse has received from John McCarthy QC that the date of his resignation is irrelevant, because “NSW legislation stipulates that the office of any member of the tribunal becomes automatically vacant if he or she nominates for a federal seat”. Emma Alberici of the ABC says that “if history is any guide, Mr Newhouse won’t have too much to worry about” if his election is declared void, citing the electorate’s confirmation of Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Phil Cleary in Wills. However, these episodes involved oversights that came to light after they were elected, with the voters in Lindsay taking revenge on a sore-loser opposition that had dragged them back to the polls. The Liberals would surely have the sense to take caution from this precedent, although they are currently talking tough to keep the threat of a by-election in the air. Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett sees the controversy as “a reminder of the need to reform outdated provisions in our constitution”.
• Kevin Rudd’s campaigning this week has provided a clear pointer to very strong Labor polling in Queensland. Yesterday he campaigned in the Brisbane seat of Bowman and will today head north to Dawson, respectively held by the Liberals and Nationals on margins of 8.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Dawson venture should give Kevin Rudd the opportunity to take advantage of member De-Anne Kelly’s discomfort over the Auditor-General’s damning report into the Regional Partnerships program.
• Former Labor member for Hinkler, Brian Courtice, has appeared in Coalition television commercials attacking Labor’s union influence. Quoth Courtice: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he can stand up to the union bosses. They’ve thrown $30 million at this campaign to buy the election. This is about a brutal grab for power. It’s too big a risk to risk Rudd.” Courtice first made his displeasure felt a fortnight ago when he appeared at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey,
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to a $20,000 press advertising campaign as evidence that Labor is still hopeful of winning Boothby, in spite of everything. Nicole Cornes is “the only Labor candidate to have expensive press advertisements running in Adelaide’s daily newspaper, The Advertiser”.
• Labor’s candidate for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, received unwelcome late-campaign publicity on Wednesday after he described as “ridiculous” the private school funding formula which Labor decided to retain when it ditched Mark Latham’s “private schools hit list”.
• In an overview of the campaign for Bass, Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “Liberal Party strategists concede that Labor candidate and former Launceston deputy mayor Jodie Campbell has already got Bass ‘in the bag’”.
• Ewin Hannan of The Australian writes that Labor’s candidate in Deakin, Mike Symon, has “failed to persuade his party to commit to fixing a contentious local road project”. This refers to the “loathed” bottleneck at Springvale and Whitehorse roads in Nunawading, to which the Coalition has promised to commit $80 million. In other Coalition road promise news, Mark Vaile has announced that funding for completion of the dual carriageway upgrade to the Hume Highway, variously costed at $752 million and $992 million.
• I am once again approaching my monthly bandwidth limit. Donations to the cause are as always more than welcome, and can be made through the PayPal link on the sidebar. I should note that I invariably get more than I need whenever I make this appeal, but you might feel I deserve some pocket money for my efforts.
641 Comments
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Good on you.
Gippslander/Derek Corbett/ShowsOn
“Someone on Radio National’s Bush Telegraph says McGauran’s seat of Gippsland is in play. Compere said: “Gosh …”
The quote was attributed to Lasseters.
If Gippslander shows up, please refer.
Gippslander 590 Says: ACN Thread November 16th, 2007 at 1:22 am
‘I cannot understand why Gippsland seems off everybody’s radar! The seat is a much better bet than the average Vic swing, because in the last election it was heavily hit by Latham’s forestry debacle, and the local member must have the lowest personal vote of any National in the country. And if you don’t think Mortgages and Workchoice are issues in the Latrobe Valley then you’re wrong’.
Hmmm…. I’m supposed to be working!
Here’s a little trick that some dodgy business people used after the introduction of SerfChoices. It’s possible that this method was so abused it had to be moderated, thus the ‘lets make sure it’s unfair – Fairness Test’
1. You start with Company A
2. Introduce SurfChoices
3. Start Company B, does exactly the same work as Company A.
4. Hire a bunch of workers, for considerably less than those employees of Company A, put them on SerfChoices.
4a. This works well if the new workers are on a temporary visa, maybe hired through a mate who is charging them a comfortable fee for immigration handling. Maybe a nice little kick-back too.
5. Most new contracts go to Company B.
6. Oh dear Company A is going broke!
7. Make an offer to employees of Company A that they go to Company B, they wil need to sign a new contract. (SerfChoices)
8. Ex -employee of ex-Company A gets arse kicked by wife because he now earns less, for more time away from home, child-care is now an issue, or he can’t get enough hours.
9. Temporary visa workers can afford to give the family back home a swimming pool, but can’t afford a bus ticket to work. They get sore feet because they can’t afford shoes and walk everywhere. And they still owe the immigration agent two years wages.
THEN AGAIN POVERTY IS BY CHOICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just ask that miserable excuse of a human being Tony (The Mad Monk) Abbott.
And why exactly did he get booted out of the seminary???? Hey????
Is that another gay story there?????
Just how many Liberals are in the closet????
This was common practice amongst construction companies.
So for those Tories that dont understand business, there’s not much I can explain for you.
And that’s probably it until I get home to-night.
GP is not the sharpest pencil in the pack and for the life of me I can’t understand why everytime he appears fly like on this blog people go on a swatting rampage. Leave him to his own devices, he’ll go out the window eventually..
FYI,
Andrew Landeryou is offering a $100 bet that the Coalition will win. You just need to name your price. You’re probably going to get better odds against him than at any bookie atm. Link is below if anyone is interested:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/take-oc-loot-we-have-100-that-says-john.html
GP – you’re gonna lose, nerny nerny ner ner!!!
How is that for maturity?
What are peoples takes on Pt Adelaide? Labors on a big margin here which I don’t think is gonna change much, so I’m tempted to vote green in the lower aswell cause i prefer their policies. However if I lived anywhere else in Adelaide i’d be voting labor in lower, greens in senate. Anyone else share similar senario?
No 404
It seems you only have the intellectual capacity for personal attacks.
No 406
Pathetic Samuel.
409: I know you are, but what am I?
On radio national Kroger droning on about Labor, boy, he’s a blowhard. Then Barnaby saying the government is facing annihilation. But no, Kroger still drones on about the Libs great economic management and brilliant tax plan.
How do these lizards ever talk straight and tell the truth?
Oh well, Kroger reckons we’ll see Howard fight back in the last week!
Love it! Bring it on!
GP,
You and your adversaries appear to be taking up much bandwidth without actually contributing anything of value to the larger debate/discussion. Given that William’s bandwidth is limited and valuable, could I ask you all to move to an MSN thread or something?
#405 He’s also offering $100 on Labor not making a net gain in Victoria. Is this the new “How to spend a million dollars” game?
now now corners kiddies!?…
The Tiser puts Mia Handshin on a two-party preferred vote of 49%, which is Labor’s best polling in Sturt since Norm Foster won it in 1969.
Lead story on Ch Ten’s 11am News is Abbott’s latest case of Foot in Mouth.
Here is a question for someone in the know: why does Morgan keep returning a higher Labor vote? Is it methodology, presentation, people on its list, places it surveys? If anyone knows why, why doesn’t Morgan change the way they go about things? Do they think their numbers are correct?
This is quite a peculiar thing. A few years ago Kroger was able to COMMENT, now he simply CAMPAIGNS.
In fact I think the more he is CAMPAIGNING the more desperate the government’s position is. At last election he gave commentary, which suggested to me he thought the government was going to win easily.
Since he is campaigning this year, it means the government will lose.
He won with 49% 2pp!? What a genius!
I actually think Andrew Landeryou has made some good points… mostly on Labor’s woeful campaign. I particularly agree on his point that Labor has no message for the campaign.
I’d still rate Labor’s chances of winning as less than 50% (slightly)… but it certainly won’t be a shock if they somehow scrape in. Labor’s problem is that they haven’t emphasised how much of an underdog they really are. After the last election they were saying Labor couldn’t win this election… now they’re saying that they can’t lose. The former is still more the case no matter what the polls say.
Your a brave person if you think Landeryou would pay out on a bet, don’t waste your time on the sleazy gossip monger, if you’ve got twenty bucks burning a hole in your pocket donate it to this site- much better value.
407 Chris
I’m in Pt Adelaide too. I’ll be voting Greens both HoR and Senate, and so will the wife. In such a safe ALP seat though, and with such a massive swing on at large, I don’t think there’s anything interesting going on here.
When I said David Speers was the only certain winner of this election campaign, I was wrong. Kroger is also going to be a clear winner, as his performances as an “analyst” on Sky News and other media have made people realise he’s one of the more articulate Liberals around.
Expect him to get parachuted into a safe Lib seat in NSW after the election (probably either Berowra or Mackellar).
If you want a great example of Kroger’s Modus Operandi re Liberal Powerbroking, check out Glen Wheatley’s Autobiography Paper Paradise where he mentions how he was the original choice to stand for Higgins, but had to pull out cos of Glen’s various financial problems involving his Nightclub The Ivy.
The replacement candidate was none other than Dollar $weetie himself :-0)
Howard has no one to blame but his own wife Janette!
Had she not commanded /pushed Howard to cling on to the top job during the Liberal’s leadership crisis (after the APEC Conference), Howard could have stepped down in grace and dignity.
Power is addictive and greed has no limit!
God damn the old hag!
Speaking of hiding candidates – the liberals are baby sitting most of theirs.
Bill Heffernan is following Gary Nairn around Eden-Monaro and disrupting public meetings when Gary starts to get beaten by Mike Kelly.
Its a bit sad to see a 4 term politician needing a minder…
The polls appear to be counterintuitive to some peoples’ expectations – namely that the LP will fall over the line. Open question – why is that?
SO #419,
Ha. Ha. Ha. Foster obviously got better, hence the whole “best result since then” part. I’m surrounded by comedians and attack dogs, it seems….
Isn’t Mrs Kroger’s wife due to become a senator after this election?
LTEP,
Labor’s campaign has not been woeful (uninspiring perhaps but that’s not the same thing). They’ve been extraordinarily well-disciplined compared to previous campaigns and they’ve timed everything perfectly.
If the campaign has been so woeful, why are we sitting here 2 days before the election with Labor up by 8-10 points in the polls (a shift of perhaps 2 points since the start of the campaign)?
OK – I give, it’s only the Rattus Rattus paying anyway.
Here’s a few answers, but I can’t remeber who asked.
AWA’s are fairly common, although a small percentage of the workforce is actually on one – makes it easy to dump. Whilst on this, back in the late 80’s you could get a job in WA driving a mine truck and earn over $100k, these days twenty years on it’s not much more and most of the condition s are gone.
It’s probably illegal to tell someone that you are on AWA.
It’s un-Australian to not use nick-names for people, especially politicians. To ban/tax that sounds like sedition to me – I’ll need to report you.
I gave at the office – William’s office.
407 chris
Labor lower, Greens upper. I’m Boothby.
Nick will get in regardless. We may as well go for a green, in addition. They have a considerable chance.
At least you’ll get a better sitting member than Sawford.
Having the leader of the S.A. left as your local member will be pretty good.
LTEP at 420
How can Labor’s chance of winning be less than 50 % when all the analysis here and at possum shows a TPP between 54% and 55%? No matter how you slice or dice the swing…. that will deliver the seats!
avec
Swing Lowe if Labor win it will be despite their campaign rather than because of it. There’s really been nothing to it. In one year’s time I bet you none of us will remember what Labor’s main campaign point was… the Liberals it’s easy. Don’t trust the unions. It’s just my opinion. I’d be surprised if any non-Labor fiend thought it’s been a particularly brilliant campaign from them. Take away the good polls and I think you’d find there hasn’t been that much that’s been great for them (bar the leaders’ debate… the first time I’ve been impressed by Rudd).
I was merely pointing out the pointlessness, by way of example, of GP’s contributions for the past hour or so.
As I have posted above, I don’t expect there to be a material difference between the national 2PP figures on polling day and the figures shown by reliable polls in the dying days (e.g. ACNielson).
ACN has been steadily trending downwards for Labor for months, but only ever so gradually. The narrowing is simply not occurring quickly enough for Generic Person and his/her party.
I was previously a believer of the “Great Narrowing” and the inevitable claw back of the polls to a close fight. It is now clear that a narrowing is occurring – but it is not “Great”. Key question: will the narrowing accelerate sufficiently in the next week? Seems unlikely.
LTEP,
The “Don’t trust the unions” campaign point has been shown to be ineffective in swinging Labor voters back to the Libs.
Anyway, wasn’t the Libs’ main campaign point supposed to be “Go for Growth”? Or ” A Full-Employment Country”?
The fact that these slogans have receded into the background shows just how ineffective the Libs campaign has been. However, I bet most people here will remember “New Leadership” as the Labor campaign slogan…
Question for ESJ/GP about Workchoices. A really genuine question.
Do you guys *honestly* believe that making some of the poorest, most powerless people in our society even less powerful creates a better Australia?
I’m talking about people like migrant office cleaners: people working their arse off at two jobs trying to support young families, holding down two jobs for shitty pay and conditions.
What I’m asking is this. Do you really sit there and think, yeah, ripping away pay and conditions from people like that, making their lives even more crap basically, is essential because it ensures full employment or it “keeps business competitive” or I don’t know, some other free market line.
Or are you just rich, white, and — well — kind of evil, and you don’t really give a sh*t for anyone who’s at the bottom of the ladder (”it’s their fault”, etc).
I honestly don’t know.
#420 LETP I presume the good points you refer to Landeryou making include;
“Howard’s message has been mostly crystal clear.”
Labor campaign has been “horrifically compromised by….basement dwelling gimps.”
Not even this idiot claims that the Libs are a better than 50% proposition, but you still seem to think (against all objective evidence) that they are.
BTW, who are these Labor people claiming they “can’t lose”?
At least Morgan isn’t crashing this afternoon – yet ………
Morgan headline: ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition
And note that ALP Candidates advertising has had them pictured with Rudd, whereas the Libs have all but erased Howard.
So much for the “Liberal Team”
Perhaps we should rename the “great narrowing” the “great puckering”.
Headline from Morgan is “ALP Maintains Big Lead from Coalition”
No figures tho…
Swing Lowe, Kroger a reasonable commentator you must be joking, he just parrots the party line. I’ve watched him a few time with Rod Cameron and Cameron’s commentary and analysis is much more detached and credible he’s prepared to concede points and be critical whereas Kroger never lets an opportunity slip to repeat the ad agency lines (70%….etc).
As for him going to NSW , he could have had a safe seat in Victoria at any time over the last ten years but has chosen not to, why would he go to NSW? There won’t be to many safe seats going begging there after Nov 24
Generic Person Says:
“I didn’t ask for anyone else’s experience, I merely said that Workchoices was a necessary reform.”
What intelligent reason can you say Workchoices is a necessary reform. When overtime, leave loading, public holidays, redundancy flex time can be removed with no address. I don’t know what planet you’re on. Great gift we left for our kids mate.
.
I reckon it would be wise for some Labor staffers to go through this Auditor-General’s report with a fine-tooth comb, and commit to memory the worst examples of rorting. Make sure Rudd mentions a couple of the worst everytime Howard opens his mouth about economic management.
Maybe have Rudd visit one of the more obscene examples of pork to take the high moral ground (preferably in a safe Liberal/Nat regional seat where it matters little if he annoys the locals.) And make sure when in government he doesn’t replicate this sort of behaviour, mind you $386 million (over a third of billion dollars) is going to be hard to top. This makes my blood boil.
LTEP,
Have you watched the ALP campaign launch? There appears to be a fairly consistent focus on three things:
1. New leadership for a new era.
2. Fairness for Australians
3. Rebuilding Australia’s governmental services.
Oh, sorry, here’s a fourth
4. Governmental accountability.
The Libs have been focussed on two things:
1. Bad union bosses (ineffective)
2. Economic superiority (false, and has bitten them on the backside).
Whichever public servant mapped out the LP campaign (at the taxpayers’ expense, of course!) obviously had an axe to grind with his bosses.
Kroger WAS a good commentator 3 – 5 years ago. But these days he just campaigns. It is the same as inviting a Liberal front bencher to a show.
ALP 56.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP 43.5% (down 0.5%)
This is to keep the 35% Liberal base together
This is to try to keep swinging voters.
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