With a little bit of Stirling thrown in. These two 30-second spots went to air on tonight’s Perth edition of the Channel Nine News, and similar ads have presumably been tailored for other markets. It might be tempting to view the ads as an indicator of the electoral sensitivity of Stirling and Cowan, but it’s more likely a product of these candidates’ value in dispelling perceptions of Labor as dominated by unionists. Labor’s other main marginal seat candidate, former Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck, doesn’t get a guernsey.
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Labor Cowan ads
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90 Comments
Based on that theory though William, wouldn’t Melissa Parke be an obvious person for them to show off as well?
Not bad ads. A study said that the Liberal Party UNION ads were just preaching to the converted and didn’t really have much effect on swinging voters. These ads will probably also mainly just preach to the converted but it’s probably important that Labor counterattacks on this issue.
Charlie, I guess my theory would be that they needed to meet both criteria.
The Nurses! They’ve got a union – Union Nurses Bosses!!
And the Army – that’s a Union too – well almost.
I like both ads, but I suppose i’m just the kind of person they’re aimed at. The visual composition of the ads is great, matching the aural tones and verbal content. The whole package is smooth without appearing slick, projects warmth, directness and re-assurance. This is the “working family” theme woven together with the Kevin Rudd persona. It is no wonder the Liberals can’t break through.
Should the Labor Party be worried about Cowan with the retirement of Edwards? I wouldn’t think so. Surely there will be a swing on to Labor in WA and this will be greater than the loss of Edwards personal vote.
Nothing in NSW yet. NSW office and Qld ALP offices have joined forces with local ads reminding voters that their local Coalition voted for WorkChoices.
http://www.votingrecord.com.au
I’m hoping that they might do similar ads for Jim Arneman here in Paterson. He is very personable and an ambulance officer (which rates as the most respected profession on some surveys). Baldwin has been pumping out a lot of ads I’d say he is at least outspending the ALP 10:1.
But the WA Secretary of the ANF Mark Olson is a supporter of John Howard and was in bed with the WA LIbs during the 2005 State Election.
I really do think whoever has been putting the Labor visuals together has done an absolutely brilliant job the the whole year. This component has turbo-charged Rudd’s messages every step of the way.
Does anyone know when Treasury releases their review of both parties policies? I am presuming there is a set time in the Charter of Budget Honesty?
Agree with you Blindy. I am particularly impressed with the constant weaving of the word SORRY through the testamonial type ads. Great subliminal marketing, subconciously reminding viewers of the inability of Honest John to be genuine.
Answer to my own question found here:
http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/Charter_of_Budget_Honesty.html
Watch out! Union Bosses will blow up the entire universe!
“Costing requests should desirably be submitted to the relevant Secretaries during working hours, preferably by 5.30 pm on a weekday. Working hours for the purpose of these guidelines are the weekday hours from 8.30 am to 5.30 pm. Requests received outside working hours will be taken as having been received the next working day, unless otherwise specifically agreed in advance with the relevant Secretaries. These timing conventions will apply to both the public release of information regarding the request, as well as commencement of work on the costing.
Election costing requests should be received by the responsible Secretaries no later than 5.30 pm on the sixth working day prior to polling day for the election (that is Thursday in the penultimate week before the election), to enable the public release of the policy costings by 5.30 pm on the Thursday before polling day for the election. This will allow time for costings to be publicly scrutinised before polling day. Should requests be received later than the specified time, the Secretaries will endeavour to cost the policy and release the costing. However it may not be possible to complete the costing in time for release on the Thursday before polling day for the election. The Secretaries will send a letter early in the campaign reminding both parties of the submission deadline.
The offices of both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition will be forewarned up to eight working hours in advance of the expected public release time of all costings, but not of the content of the reports. The requesting party will also be informed of the hand delivery arrangements and public release approximately one hour prior to the release. When a costing is to be released, hard copy costing reports will be provided to the Parliament House offices of both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition at approximately the same time, with the costing provided to the requesting party first. Shortly after the delivery of the document, costings will be publicly released to the press and on the joint Finance Treasury election costings website. As noted in Part 2 (Page 4), the Secretaries will aim to produce a written report that provides a full explanation of the costing. However, a further statement may be issued if the Secretaries judge that further clarification of a costing and the methods used is required.”
So presumably some time Thursday, possibly earlier.
I wonder when they are released and the Coalition comes out as the more fiscally irresponsible will Vaile come out with his line about gagging the non-elected public servants durgin caretaker time again?
AnthonyL @ 10. It just says as soon as practicable after request made, and no later than COB of last business day before polling day.
Read about it here: http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/Charter_of_Budget_Honesty.html#part4
You guys get TV election ads? We get the occasional Bob Brown and Greens for the Senate. And the West Papuan ads keep popping up.
The Family First ad here in Vic could actually get them some votes I think. Those Libs thinking there is a landslide will probably look to FF in the Senate.
What is the broad appeal of Don Randal for the Libs that made them start TV ads this week?
You can feel the confidence growing. Defending unions (withou saying the word) taking Rodent head on on the economy.
Like it.
And people think nothing will change. Pfft. It already has.
William… on Cowan. My memory was that last time the areas of the seat like Girrawheen weren’t as pro-Labor as usual. I’m not sure you if you know if that’s correct.
It’s possible that if these areas swing back heavily enough Labor could retain the seat. I’m only a little worried about the newer areas, eg. Darch and surrounds.
Big Blind Dave,
I dunno.
BTW, Pearce/Hasluck party is being held at the old Midland Workshops which was the first thing Dickie Court closed when he became Premier.
Girrawheen has had an influx of African, Sudenese and Iraqi immigrants since 2004 – no doubt Andrew’s Dog Whistle and the Iraq Wae will be factors.
Will From Kooyong:- : yeah I agree I think the family first ads could win some undecided votes, I was a bit shocked they were running ads. I think FF ads are better then the green action ads in getting a message across for a small party, I think they could win some protest votes from both liberal and labor…. Be interesting to see how they poll..
when is the advertising black out?
Frank
I am sure I will see you there at the Midland Railyards and figure out who you are. I will also be heading to members equity stadium for the Your Rights @ Work party after that.
The YR@W volunteers include about a dozen workers from every booth in Hasluck and Stirling aswell as about half the Swan and Cowan booths- Should be bloody huge!
Not sure if Joe and Kev will show up sorry…haha
anyone got a link to pornography first vic ads
LTEP, look no further than my booth vote and swing maps, which you can now see on my Cowan map (I only just uploaded this so you might have to hit refresh). As you can see, the swing in the Girrawheen area was big but not out of proportion from the rest of the electorate.
Actually you’re right, there were some very heavy swings in those booths.
What happened to The Team? Where the hell is Costello? No doubt trying to save his hide in his own electorate by staying well clear of the smell of death wafting around Howard. Costello may stay as far away as possible but he will still be linked to the current debacle for the rest of his public life – Costello The Coward
It’s great to hear Liberals squealing like a cut pig.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092876.htm
Ahhh… Hewson – much better than Kroker
Not sure if someone has mentioned it but I caught the end of a ‘local’ type Labor ad for the candidate for Bowman on TV tonight, only saw it once, but they do have them it seems.
Galaxy marginal seats poll
53-47 APP
Coal 43 ALP 42 Green 11 on primaries
I may be wrong on the primaries, but I remember that the Greens were on 11, and the coalition had a 1 point lead.
Galaxy poll: 53-47
Scary
This was on Lateline, by the way.
I’d take a 53-47 lead in every marginal seat.
Seriously, the overall TPP isnt very indicative, we’ll have to wait and see the individual ones.
Exactly the same as 16 Oct.
Narrowing,indeed
Scary? That’s glorious for marginal seat polling!
BTW, this Galaxy poll is due to be published on Sunday.
William,
You’re link to the ads also provided an alternative for people who on election night might be too depressed about the results to keep watching Anthony Green call the action.
They can instead watch Monty Python’s Silly Election
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rooOWZnFYkI
11 per cent primary for the Greens even in Marginals seems way too high.
17
Big Blind Dave Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
What is the broad appeal of Don Randal for the Libs that made them start TV ads this week?
….
They must be worried about losing Canning – and with good reason. It is natural Rudd country in my opinion.
What is the definition of marginal seats in Galaxy polls? Are they seats sitting on less than 5% margin for the Coalition? And do they include Labor seats as well?
It looks like somebody just put a fair bit of money on the Coalition using betfair and sportsbet. Betfair went from $3.85 to $3.65 and sportsbet from $3.75 to $3.50. Both went down at once!
How impressive was Hewson on Lateline? Obviously he wants his beloved liberals to get over the line, but he expressed the most balanced views and input I can remember from an out and out right winger.
Rubber stamp senate argument and Qld FF ad.
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/family-first-apparently-the-senate-is-a-rubber-stamps/
stephen hill @ 39
or instead they can watch the muppets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yvHWyvexZA&feature=related
Personally i can’t wait for antony to call it. I live in safe labour seat of Pt Adelaide so for my vote the most interesting developements will be in the senate. though i have my fingers crossed maxine does in johnny in bennelong but overall its probably irrelevant johnny is toast either way.
I think there is something wrong with either the Galaxy poll or the national polls. Newspoll is only showing 10% minor party, and the last three national Galaxy polls have had the minor party vote between 7-9%. Then suddenly in the marginal seats the minor party vote is 15%. Normally the minor party vote is lower in marginal seats as it gets squeezed out by the major parties’ intensity of campagn effort. I don’t feel the polarising mood I remember in 1974, 1975 or 1993 that would produce such a low minor party vote. But perhaps its because the Democrats have disappeared. As voters have drifted away from the Liberals this time, there hasn’t been a half-way house with whom to park your primary vote.
#45 I hate the way FF try to pass themselves off as compassionate and decent human beings
Yes the major party primary votes seem incredibly high in the national polls. Could it be the way they phrase the question and the limited choices that they offer e.g. Labor, Liberal/National, Other?
When voters have a full list in front of them perhaps the minor parties will fair better on the day.
All stand! we have a worthy winner to announce.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772702-601,00.html
Funniest thing I’ve seen all year steve
I thought it was common to win at the GG’s
Interesting headline in The Oz:
Balibo killers must see justice: Rudd
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22768554-601,00.html
It’s kind of like they are treating him as PM already…
The high Green primary could indicate an assumption by people that the ALP will win, so they’re going first to the Greens and then to the ALP. (Just a biased guess)
Steve @50 Isn’t The Australian winning the NEWS(Ltd)Paper of the Year Award a bit like the World Series of Baseball?
i.e. it would be a bit more credible if you invited non-News Ltd papers (countries in the case of the World Series) to participate?
No AnthonyL, it’s more akin to Howard winning the primary vote of the Howard household.
56 Or Kirribilli House winning Home Decorator of the Year.
Have to wonder if Kevin Rudd’s presence in WA at this stage of the campaign will make a difference. He seemed to get a reasonable press from the normally tory media. Only news from Kalgoorlie, apart from Shelley Archer and Kevin Reynolds’ resignations from the ALP, is that someone keeps pinching Barry Haase’s campaign trailer. Some joyride!
‘Labor View from Broome’
I’m not sure that Howard can be too confident of the Howard household vote. Apparently he isn’t strong enough on capital punishment.
Ah steve, our humour is wasted on this thread!
59 LOL!! true, I should have said 2PP (probably gets preferences from his son)
Just saw first greens ad in WA- two bobs worth, i liked it
I’ll take 53/47 in the marginals form Galaxy any day.
Galaxy seems to be the most “coalition friendly” of the major polls. Not saying they are actively biased, just always seem to give the best results for the forces of evil and darkness in the same way that Morgan seems to give the best results for the ALP.
Also, if its a smaller swing than the state breakdowns are showing in the marginals, then its likely a bigger swing than the state breakdowns are showing is happening in the LNP safe seats. Not good news for the Rattus Crew methinks..
Also, if they are showing Greens on 11% primary in the seats polled then with most of that going to the ALP all is well with the world. 11% seems pretty high though??
Candidate dogged by past.
AN independent candidate running for the federal seat of Bendigo has admitted to drug and theft convictions.
Bendigo student Adam Veitch, 31, said his drug-taking days were behind him and he was now trying to turn his past into a positive.
Mr Veitch was found guilty of possessing ecstasy and amphetamines and two counts of theft in the Bendigo Magistrates Court in 2004 and served a two-month sentence in the form of an intensive corrections order.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22770315-29277,00.html
I got an email from getup.org.au today sending me to a site which has a quiz which is supposed to inform me about how I should vote (methinks they are pushing the online democracy a bit far with this).
Its supposed to take 3 minutes but is incredibly slow and took more like 45 minutes. You get your very own personalised how to vote card which is pretty cool I guess.
Westpoll Liberal 52, Labor 48 (10% swing from last month Lab 53, Lib 47)
Courtesy sky news
Frank and Blind Dave or other Sandgropers may be able to answer this: the WA polling info over here is pretty scanty. I noticed in the GG, the accumulated Newspoll reading was showing ALP-Lib 50:50 2pp. How accurate is that?
Shanas (of course) is not only referring to WA as the coalition’s best state (it is the only one showing Howard ahead of Rudd as ppm), but that it will record “no change”. 50:50 if reliable would represent a big swing towards Labor and put quite a few Lib WA seats at risk.
Any ideas?
What the Papers Say. Delroy, ABC.
Extended chat with Laura Tingle, the Fin.
Game, set, match. Wrap comment. Laura. ‘At this stage, Kevin Rudd will be PM in a week’.
The GG.
Labor extends lead.
Kevin Andrews orders urgent review of all 450 in immigration detention.
13 released thus far.
What do we know of Galaxy’s previous marginal polling? What seats do they actually poll? All Coalition marginals? or a mix of Coalition and Labor?
Mate of mine is active in the ALP in Canning in W.A. They have realistic hopes of ousting Randal.
Brand is apparently a worry, but no-one is panicking.
Stephen Hill,
Are the first figures primary and the 2nd 2PP ?
If so, Burkegate 2 getting 2 lib scalps and the resignation of Big Kev and Mrs Kev may have had a good bearing for the ALP.
Probably one of Westpoll’s sample size 400 polls – i.e. MOE 5%ish. Still, the 5% swing from the last poll seems odd. Last one probably overstated Labor, this one probably overstates Coalition.
Antony (47), I think the low minor party vote is more credible. I agree it is not like the polarising elections, I think it is more that Rudd has tapped into themes that the minor parties relied on. Not just the environment with climate change, but also against the old Labor/Liberal divide that would drive people to the minor parties. I think Rudd is bleeding them dry (and also why Labor’s primary has improved so well).
Hasn’t there also been some discrepancy between what the national polls are showing in the marginals and what the individual seats are finding?
By the way, is your ‘Howard battler’ piece you did a few years ago publicly available?
Muzzle tightened on candidates
LABOR candidates are receiving daily missives from party headquarters telling them what, and what not, to say.
A series of e-mails obtained by The Courier-Mail reveals the extent of the gag placed on candidates by Labor’s central campaign team as it closes on what polling suggests will be a landslide victory next weekend.
The candidates are being warned against speaking out on any issue without approval.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22771878-952,00.html
67- Don
50/50 would mean WA is swinging more than NSW
That would have ALP confident of a two seat gain.
I would say ALP is as likely to pick up Canning as Lose Cowan and Kalgorlie is an unknown.
Does that help?
I’m voting for…?
A BUNCH of Queenslanders who each stand to collect up to $1 million from the public purse in their next job are hardly recognisable to the person in the street.
The Courier-Mail took photos of the main contenders for the state’s six Senate berths being decided in next Saturday’s election.
Not one of the four certainties – Labor’s John Hogg and Claire Moore and the Liberals’ Ian Macdonald and Sue Boyce – were recognised by any of the shoppers quizzed.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22771883-5013650,00.html
I wish I didn’t recognise Sue Boyce or Ian MacDonald.
Claire Moore is actually very eloquent and John Hogg will probably make a good President (unless what I heard about Marshall ends up being true!).
steve @ 76
These are people who can’t get elected in the lower house
Gasp, William.
Unionists! Tube stuff.
Fortunate I don’t have broadband.
Could have barely slept, otherwise.
Night, night.
Thanks for today.
SkyNews has the poll, it has limited info on its site
52:48 to the Libs on 2PP, it claims this is a ten point swing from 53:47 Lab on 2PP polled a month ago. Be interesting to know a) the MoE, and b) when the polling was down, as it will be interesting to opine whether the Archer and Reynold resignations are a plus or minus for Labor. I agree with Samuel K, Westpoll is famously volatile.
Westpoll on Sky News.
David Speers probably went off to get a tissue.
This is from
skynews.com.au
“The Coalition has had a much needed boost in the latest Westpoll results, which show a major rise in the government’s support in Western Australia.
The poll, to be published in The West Australian newspaper shows the government gaining 10 points on Labor on a two party preferred basis.
Westpoll shows the coalition ahead of the ALP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two party preferred basis, which is a huge swing from last month when Labor led the coalition 53-47.
The poll also shows a rise in the Prime Minister’s personal popularity, with Mr Howard winning the preferred Prime Minister vote for the first time since July.
Mr Howard scored 49 per cent to Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s 41 per cent.
The Liberals have also gained ground in the primary votes, attracting 47 per cent of the vote, which is up from 43 per cent in October.
Labor dropped 8 points to 38 per cent of the primary vote.
The results are not all good for the coalition though, with the poll showing that they stand to lose the seats of Stirling and Hasluck to Labor in the election.”
38 percent primary vote sounds a bit overstaked, I wonder how far ahead Labor are in Stirling and Hasluck, at 48:52, they might have a point of two buffer.
The soon to be senior liberal in Australia spits dummy big time. Gridlock Campbell might have to lift his game if he wants to get reelected in March.
“I know which political party organised the moratorium marches, were responsible for throwing paint on battalion soldiers marching through the streets of our capital cities, who threw eggs at them, called them ‘baby killers’ – it was the Australian Labor Party and their socialist alliance type fellow preachers,” he said.
Labor councillor for Marchant ward Faith Hopkins said that as the wife of a Vietnam veteran, she was extremely disappointed in Cr Newman’s comments.
“I find it most inappropriate that the Lord Mayor of a city of the status of Brisbane would lower and politicise the lives and the families of people who have been involved with war, very personally affected by war, and he has no more respect than to try to make a political point in a chamber that is here to look after the people of Brisbane,” she said.
RSL Queensland president Doug Formby said veterans welcomed and appreciated the attendance of representatives from the major political parties at Remembrance Day.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22771554-3102,00.html
That should read “38% Labor primary vote sounds a bit understaked,” wouldn’t that translate into something like a 55:45 to the Libs in 2PP, would labor gain 10% from others,
Looks like Howard is starting to give out messages about a big change next week. I’d have preferred him to fight till the end but he seems to be throwing the towel in. I’m sure the electorate will oblige him and send him a tough and perhaps unpopular message.
In the near future, more “tough and perhaps unpopular” decisions would be required to keep the country strong and growing, he said.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22772377-953,00.html
If this is how badly the Howard government manages the economy in the good times, imagine how they’ll do in the bad times!
1 more week.
Virginia Trioli is so very biased on Lateline.
John Hewson and Rod Cameron are also, but they are openly biased, and support their arguments with at least a little logic. Hewson is such a cynic, poor guy. I really feel sorry for him – he probably should have won in ‘93.
Piping Shrike, I’m still suspicious that 10% primary vote will be a bit low. That would be the lowest minor party vote since 1987, and the number of candidates on ballot papers has doubled since then. I’m just expecting the primary votes for the major parties might be a bit lower than reported in the polls, though the two-party preferred will end up the same.
However, the point I was making was that it if it is low, I very much doubt it would be higher in the marginal seats. Normally the minor party vote gets squeezed in marginal seats. And with so many marginal seats in outer suburban areas where the Greens traditionally poll poorly, an 11% Green poll in marginals sounds odd. But I suppose we will have to await the detail of this Galaxy poll.
My article on ‘the battlers’ was in AQ, Sep-Oct 1997. It was about confusion between class analysis and voting behaviour and the marketing term ‘battler’.
Rod Cameron on LL says Labor will easily win 12 seats but a big leap to win the next 12, will be very close etc. Not sure if he is really so pessimistic, or deliberately down playing Labor’s chance to keep a lid on the celebrations with a week to go. He must be aware 55/45 national 2PP is a real chance.
I am very optimistic about Strirling. Although I wouldn’t mind if Labor wins and Keenan has to spend 3 years in purgatory on the opposition back bench. See how much influence he has on “local issues”from there.
That should be a big leap to win the next 4 to get to 16