With a little bit of Stirling thrown in. These two 30-second spots went to air on tonight’s Perth edition of the Channel Nine News, and similar ads have presumably been tailored for other markets. It might be tempting to view the ads as an indicator of the electoral sensitivity of Stirling and Cowan, but it’s more likely a product of these candidates’ value in dispelling perceptions of Labor as dominated by unionists. Labor’s other main marginal seat candidate, former Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck, doesn’t get a guernsey.
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Labor Cowan ads
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Based on that theory though William, wouldn’t Melissa Parke be an obvious person for them to show off as well?
Not bad ads. A study said that the Liberal Party UNION ads were just preaching to the converted and didn’t really have much effect on swinging voters. These ads will probably also mainly just preach to the converted but it’s probably important that Labor counterattacks on this issue.
Charlie, I guess my theory would be that they needed to meet both criteria.
The Nurses! They’ve got a union – Union Nurses Bosses!!
And the Army – that’s a Union too – well almost.
I like both ads, but I suppose i’m just the kind of person they’re aimed at. The visual composition of the ads is great, matching the aural tones and verbal content. The whole package is smooth without appearing slick, projects warmth, directness and re-assurance. This is the “working family” theme woven together with the Kevin Rudd persona. It is no wonder the Liberals can’t break through.
Should the Labor Party be worried about Cowan with the retirement of Edwards? I wouldn’t think so. Surely there will be a swing on to Labor in WA and this will be greater than the loss of Edwards personal vote.
Nothing in NSW yet. NSW office and Qld ALP offices have joined forces with local ads reminding voters that their local Coalition voted for WorkChoices.
http://www.votingrecord.com.au
I’m hoping that they might do similar ads for Jim Arneman here in Paterson. He is very personable and an ambulance officer (which rates as the most respected profession on some surveys). Baldwin has been pumping out a lot of ads I’d say he is at least outspending the ALP 10:1.
But the WA Secretary of the ANF Mark Olson is a supporter of John Howard and was in bed with the WA LIbs during the 2005 State Election.
I really do think whoever has been putting the Labor visuals together has done an absolutely brilliant job the the whole year. This component has turbo-charged Rudd’s messages every step of the way.
Does anyone know when Treasury releases their review of both parties policies? I am presuming there is a set time in the Charter of Budget Honesty?
Agree with you Blindy. I am particularly impressed with the constant weaving of the word SORRY through the testamonial type ads. Great subliminal marketing, subconciously reminding viewers of the inability of Honest John to be genuine.
Answer to my own question found here:
http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/Charter_of_Budget_Honesty.html
Watch out! Union Bosses will blow up the entire universe!
“Costing requests should desirably be submitted to the relevant Secretaries during working hours, preferably by 5.30 pm on a weekday. Working hours for the purpose of these guidelines are the weekday hours from 8.30 am to 5.30 pm. Requests received outside working hours will be taken as having been received the next working day, unless otherwise specifically agreed in advance with the relevant Secretaries. These timing conventions will apply to both the public release of information regarding the request, as well as commencement of work on the costing.
Election costing requests should be received by the responsible Secretaries no later than 5.30 pm on the sixth working day prior to polling day for the election (that is Thursday in the penultimate week before the election), to enable the public release of the policy costings by 5.30 pm on the Thursday before polling day for the election. This will allow time for costings to be publicly scrutinised before polling day. Should requests be received later than the specified time, the Secretaries will endeavour to cost the policy and release the costing. However it may not be possible to complete the costing in time for release on the Thursday before polling day for the election. The Secretaries will send a letter early in the campaign reminding both parties of the submission deadline.
The offices of both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition will be forewarned up to eight working hours in advance of the expected public release time of all costings, but not of the content of the reports. The requesting party will also be informed of the hand delivery arrangements and public release approximately one hour prior to the release. When a costing is to be released, hard copy costing reports will be provided to the Parliament House offices of both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition at approximately the same time, with the costing provided to the requesting party first. Shortly after the delivery of the document, costings will be publicly released to the press and on the joint Finance Treasury election costings website. As noted in Part 2 (Page 4), the Secretaries will aim to produce a written report that provides a full explanation of the costing. However, a further statement may be issued if the Secretaries judge that further clarification of a costing and the methods used is required.”
So presumably some time Thursday, possibly earlier.
I wonder when they are released and the Coalition comes out as the more fiscally irresponsible will Vaile come out with his line about gagging the non-elected public servants durgin caretaker time again?
AnthonyL @ 10. It just says as soon as practicable after request made, and no later than COB of last business day before polling day.
Read about it here: http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/Charter_of_Budget_Honesty.html#part4
You guys get TV election ads? We get the occasional Bob Brown and Greens for the Senate. And the West Papuan ads keep popping up.
The Family First ad here in Vic could actually get them some votes I think. Those Libs thinking there is a landslide will probably look to FF in the Senate.
What is the broad appeal of Don Randal for the Libs that made them start TV ads this week?
You can feel the confidence growing. Defending unions (withou saying the word) taking Rodent head on on the economy.
Like it.
And people think nothing will change. Pfft. It already has.
William… on Cowan. My memory was that last time the areas of the seat like Girrawheen weren’t as pro-Labor as usual. I’m not sure you if you know if that’s correct.
It’s possible that if these areas swing back heavily enough Labor could retain the seat. I’m only a little worried about the newer areas, eg. Darch and surrounds.
Big Blind Dave,
I dunno.
BTW, Pearce/Hasluck party is being held at the old Midland Workshops which was the first thing Dickie Court closed when he became Premier.
Girrawheen has had an influx of African, Sudenese and Iraqi immigrants since 2004 – no doubt Andrew’s Dog Whistle and the Iraq Wae will be factors.
Will From Kooyong:- : yeah I agree I think the family first ads could win some undecided votes, I was a bit shocked they were running ads. I think FF ads are better then the green action ads in getting a message across for a small party, I think they could win some protest votes from both liberal and labor…. Be interesting to see how they poll..
when is the advertising black out?
Frank
I am sure I will see you there at the Midland Railyards and figure out who you are. I will also be heading to members equity stadium for the Your Rights @ Work party after that.
The YR@W volunteers include about a dozen workers from every booth in Hasluck and Stirling aswell as about half the Swan and Cowan booths- Should be bloody huge!
Not sure if Joe and Kev will show up sorry…haha
anyone got a link to pornography first vic ads
LTEP, look no further than my booth vote and swing maps, which you can now see on my Cowan map (I only just uploaded this so you might have to hit refresh). As you can see, the swing in the Girrawheen area was big but not out of proportion from the rest of the electorate.
Actually you’re right, there were some very heavy swings in those booths.
What happened to The Team? Where the hell is Costello? No doubt trying to save his hide in his own electorate by staying well clear of the smell of death wafting around Howard. Costello may stay as far away as possible but he will still be linked to the current debacle for the rest of his public life – Costello The Coward
It’s great to hear Liberals squealing like a cut pig.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2092876.htm
Ahhh… Hewson – much better than Kroker
Not sure if someone has mentioned it but I caught the end of a ‘local’ type Labor ad for the candidate for Bowman on TV tonight, only saw it once, but they do have them it seems.
Galaxy marginal seats poll
53-47 APP
Coal 43 ALP 42 Green 11 on primaries
I may be wrong on the primaries, but I remember that the Greens were on 11, and the coalition had a 1 point lead.
Galaxy poll: 53-47
Scary
This was on Lateline, by the way.
I’d take a 53-47 lead in every marginal seat.
Seriously, the overall TPP isnt very indicative, we’ll have to wait and see the individual ones.
Exactly the same as 16 Oct.
Narrowing,indeed
Scary? That’s glorious for marginal seat polling!
BTW, this Galaxy poll is due to be published on Sunday.
William,
You’re link to the ads also provided an alternative for people who on election night might be too depressed about the results to keep watching Anthony Green call the action.
They can instead watch Monty Python’s Silly Election
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rooOWZnFYkI
11 per cent primary for the Greens even in Marginals seems way too high.
17
Big Blind Dave Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
What is the broad appeal of Don Randal for the Libs that made them start TV ads this week?
….
They must be worried about losing Canning – and with good reason. It is natural Rudd country in my opinion.
What is the definition of marginal seats in Galaxy polls? Are they seats sitting on less than 5% margin for the Coalition? And do they include Labor seats as well?
It looks like somebody just put a fair bit of money on the Coalition using betfair and sportsbet. Betfair went from $3.85 to $3.65 and sportsbet from $3.75 to $3.50. Both went down at once!
How impressive was Hewson on Lateline? Obviously he wants his beloved liberals to get over the line, but he expressed the most balanced views and input I can remember from an out and out right winger.
Rubber stamp senate argument and Qld FF ad.
http://thinkerspodium.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/family-first-apparently-the-senate-is-a-rubber-stamps/
stephen hill @ 39
or instead they can watch the muppets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yvHWyvexZA&feature=related
Personally i can’t wait for antony to call it. I live in safe labour seat of Pt Adelaide so for my vote the most interesting developements will be in the senate. though i have my fingers crossed maxine does in johnny in bennelong but overall its probably irrelevant johnny is toast either way.
I think there is something wrong with either the Galaxy poll or the national polls. Newspoll is only showing 10% minor party, and the last three national Galaxy polls have had the minor party vote between 7-9%. Then suddenly in the marginal seats the minor party vote is 15%. Normally the minor party vote is lower in marginal seats as it gets squeezed out by the major parties’ intensity of campagn effort. I don’t feel the polarising mood I remember in 1974, 1975 or 1993 that would produce such a low minor party vote. But perhaps its because the Democrats have disappeared. As voters have drifted away from the Liberals this time, there hasn’t been a half-way house with whom to park your primary vote.
#45 I hate the way FF try to pass themselves off as compassionate and decent human beings
Yes the major party primary votes seem incredibly high in the national polls. Could it be the way they phrase the question and the limited choices that they offer e.g. Labor, Liberal/National, Other?
When voters have a full list in front of them perhaps the minor parties will fair better on the day.
All stand! we have a worthy winner to announce.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772702-601,00.html
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