Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,088 Comments
its still pretty good, although 62 was better
….
The last Morgan was an outlier – we’d been told to expect perhaps 5% of the polls, for whatever reason, wouldn’t fit the data at all. Consequently, Morgan was very quiet about the whole thing – probably embarrassed at the results. This one is more meaty, and within the MOE of today’s AC Nielsen poll as well. It seems that the final count of 55-45 is looking quite firm.
What’s odd is how many people refuse to believe any of this psephological wealth. I just had lunch with two fairly left-wing friends of mine (who live in Kingsford-Smith) and they vehmently argued that the election will go on all night, that it’ll come down to postal ballots, etc. None of this is in any way suggested by the data, but that’s how the electorate (at least in this tiny sampling) is feeling right now – as if a Labor win were still going to slip away at the very last minute…
I find it a little wierd that they’re not comparing the figures to the last face-to-face but instead to the phone poll. Possibly because they’re too embarassed to talk about the huge drops in Labor primary and 2PP that would arise from that ‘just slightly implausible’ 62-38.
Did the Morgans ever show up close to 56% during the ‘04 campaign?
A great set of numbers….confirming the trend, the campaign, the month, the year.
Is this the Narrowing?
IT’S THE NARROWING!!!!
Funny how there’s no poll outlier that has the Coalition in a good position. This demonstrates, to me at least, that the vote is leaning towards the higher end of the MoE.
On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ’swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%.
Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?
Of course the polls will tighten once the real election gets under way…
Once people start focussing…
and stop sleepwalking
And joking
You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…
Hey LTEP this proves your point. Add this poll to all of the other polls showing Labor a mile in front and Rudd as preferred PM by a good margin plus his job satisfaction way above Howards, along with the betting markets shortening Labor’s odds of winning, you can only reach one conclusion, ‘the Libs are bound to win now’. Now let’s see where did I go wrong with that analysis? Hmm….
Yes Pancho this democracy thingy is a sickening joke isn’t it? Voters are so ungrateful….
#12
The point is not all people are prospering.
With the govt’s big bloopers and Labor’s well received launch, 54-46 looks like it’ll be as good as it gets for the govt. If there’s any change in the final week, it’s more likely to be to Labor, and thus enable a night of carnage on 24 Nov.
I hope Howard keeps running this line in the last week. It is an extremely arrogant statement, it basically says “you may of decided your vote, but you are wrong”.
What have the Libs done for us lately?
Right on Pancho
I love wearing black!!
If the media run hard over the weekend with the rorts scandal + Abbott’s helpful WorkChoices admission, the next poll taken should be a doozie. This Morgan, and the next one or two polls, should complete the deflation of the Coalition’s spirits.
Will JWH try and break the “toy” before handing it back?
Looks like Morgan will release two ph polls on Sun, one a nationwide one, and the other a marginal seats poll. Should be interesting.
I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence. I’ll be happy to be proved wrong.
Now again, have we seen a 56% Morgan for the ALP during a campaign over the past few elections?
NGK, working families have never been better off…sorry, I’ll stop being a moron.
Yes Darryl.. I think people underestimate the Joker effect. In this case, the joker is Tony Abbott
Ta tah for now! off to do pre polling in Bairnsdale… The sort of boring job Abbott would like everyone to have, & since it’s voluntary, he’d also approve of its low impact on wages.
It will be interesting to see what the final election result is, compared to these polls.
Good luck Gippslander
The polls look like they are flatening out.
Well, certainly not for 9 months straight before an election we havent. Until now…
LTEP: It’s almost as if you want a Coalition victory. Your negativity and criticism of Rudd is getting very tiresome.
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Umm… Pancho unless you live overseas it’s gunna be your funeral too mate.
I love this quote from George Megalogenis last night on 7:30 Report.
WHERE IS TIP??????????????
has his wife reported him missing?
WHERE IS HE?
A major new health annoucement from Rudd:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093065.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Harry H: Tip is furiously looking for a black hole in Labor’s costings, or more likely fabricating one LOL
HH: I bet he is studying the Treasury’s report about costings so far and he sees he is f*cked. What’s the bet Rudd is under or just on the ball, and Cossie is over. Surely he will have the spin doctors trying to work out what to say.
And by my reconing, because there’s an advertising blackout from Wednesday, the Coalition can use the only weapon it has left – scary advertisements about “UNION BOSSES!!!!” for 5 more days.
However, Labor, by using its money to purchase non-broadcast advertising (i.e. Tony Abbott) will be able to have stories in the media right up until 24 November.
Oh no Brian L!!!
Mark – heartland actually, border of Grayndler and Sydney. Pay no attention to me…
Where’s Glen? How does this poll grab ya, baby? And what reason are you going to throw up as to why it won’t apply in 8 days time?
Howard Hater, I could equally say some people’s cheerleading for Rudd is tiresome. I’m not party hack, not particularly fond of Rudd but will still vote Labor. I know plenty of people who feel the same way. My partner for one. The trick is we dislike Howard even more.
#32 Peter Hartcher in today’s SMH (it’ll make you feel better LETP) goes one step further, with his “chilling steadiness and deadly intent”. I just read the article twice, felt like watching the favourite scene from your por..sorry
Looks to me as thought the Brian Burke scandal has finally sunk in, they told me it would take a while to permeate.
Peter Hartcher’s comment in today’s SMH said it all really,
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howards-instinct-let-him-down/2007/11/15/1194766868905.html
Howard needs to turn things around his huffing and puffing all year with election hand outs, tax cuts, smearing, govt advertising… this big bad wolf didn’t blow down Rudd’s house of bricks. The polls have flat lined for 12 months and will do so for another 7 days – given the recent scandals of Abbott and Pork Barrelling.
to you Lib supporters, you’ll go through the stages of denial, anger, frustration – and look into your hearts and ask yourselves under conditions as good as this “why do we face annihilation and our dear leader losing his seat”.
The answer, you need more Petro Giorgio’s and less Kevin Andrews…
Who’s “they”?
Given Morgan’s widely touted bias to Labor of about 2.5% that 56.5 becomes 54 and lines up with the Neilson. On both these findings it would seem that last weekend and through the LNP launch things solidified a very slightly for Howard. Nothing since then has gone right.
So, this weekend’s polls could be interesting. On the other hand previous experience would suggest final week histeria usually gets ignored (unless you’re up a gum tree and your name is Latham). So 54%ish on election day sounds the best bet.
Remembering always that 54% is huge, more than Hawkie in ‘83. 55% is pretty much unimaginable in modern times. The only comparison would be Jack Curtin in ‘43. 53% or 52.5% and a workable but unspectacular majority is still a most likely outcome.
As consistent as the poles … P. Jaques 100 n.o. in Hobart
LTEP, I have to agree with Howard Hater. You seem to be a bit of a broken record. The worth of forums like this is to pick up fresh perspectives on politics and share information that might offer new ways of looking at things.
You, on the other hand, are doing a very good impersonation of the Lieutenant Corporal Jack Jones character in the long-running British TV comedy ‘Dad’s Army’, who ran around waving his hands in the air shouting “We’re Doomed!”
You need a new angle mate. It’s getting a bit boring.
I thought that was the Swiss?
THe Libs would be stupid to run with it as it’s also hit the WA Libs via Anthony Fels and Noel Chricton-Brown (sp)’
Also there are internal liberal infighting in WA over the this as well.
Archer, Reynolds and McDonald have resigned from the ALP – LIb attack ads targetting them are of no use.
Its not over yet?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/one-week-from-oblivion/2007/11/15/1194766869599.html
One week left to save PM’s political skin
“JOHN HOWARD has a week to engineer a dramatic shift in voter sentiment or suffer defeat at the ballot box,”
Hmmmmm. Child health checks or stinking highway sh!thouses. You have to admit, that Howard guy is a really clever campaigner.
Mr Denmore – i assume that was a joke right…. almost everyone on this site is a broken record… you all pat yourselves on the back about being great psephologists, but there is barely anything by way of discussion that would qualify for that description…. just a great big backslapping exercise.
Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?
So kids are to get two taxpayer funded laptops?
Is the ALP in the pocket of Dell Computers?
What a farce of a policy. What a farce of a Party.
Does anybody east of Kalgoolie give a damn about Brian Burke, Reynolds and McDonald…? I mean puhleeaazzze…
I do like the liberal ad when Kevin Reynolds says..f@#k off!!!…. Sums it up really.
Ciao Bella!!!
C’ome stai?
Hey Bella, I have a desktop and a laptop. I use them in different places for different things. Both are helpful.
Isabella, my dear this aint about Rudd, It is about and will always be about Howard.
As long as he is nice (and not too much of a “prissy Pr!ck’, as Alan Ramsay calls him) solid and boring.. that’s all.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3777/
Morgan did have a 56 per cent poll to Labor during the 2004 election campaign. However, Morgan did fluctuate a fair bit over the whole period, and that was the high point.
Labor is in the box seat, but they can’t count their chickens until the polls close, because Howard cannot be underestimated.
New campaign methed? Speak in riddles.
Will,
re quote:
“…we haven’t seen polling this steady and with deadly intent since the ‘96 election.”
no quibble other than i think it was actually said by Peter Hartcher,to be fair to him.
Hartcher is by far and away the most astute political economist journalist covering the campaign, although Mega George is pretty close too
they leave the pondorous, self-important Paul “Good Morning, Barry” Kelly for dead
And its instructive now to revisit hartcher’s quarterly review, “bi-polar nation” which came out in the first quarter of the year…
his conclusion then was that it was going to be virtually impossible for rudd to defeat howard..
it wasn’t said in any partisan way, just how he saw the political strengths of howard v rudd at that stage, and I don’t think he was out of synch with most observers, even those who may have been “left”
(and btw, wasn’t that a vital question for chris uhlman to be banging on about this morning?)
if labor wins then rudd’s “same, same but different” year-long campaign will be seen to have been both a strategically and tactically brilliant
who could have imagined he’d ultimately wedge howard over economic responsibility?
for those with basic economics and/or who read ross gittins, howard has always been a shameless master of the bribe, and was never an economic manager’s asswipe…just ask peter costello, ken henry and glenn stevens…
so there is a bit of poetic justice to all of this…
lets just hope it all still hangs together as the last week proceeds
and for good measure, here’s Nick, just to remind us of the real definition of hubris and why johnboy is in such deep deep do-dah:
Link to minchin comments on IR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiUtvnwjkTw
10pse 52
Thanks for your constructive criticism. Now all that is needed is your constructive contribution to what the latest series of polls actually mean.
“Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?”
So they can have one at home, brainstrust.
Try to keep up.
Issie, Issie, Issie, he didn’t say a laptop for every kid at school. It was a PC for every kid in year 9 – 12. Also the education rebate is not just for computers, but it can be.
I love how the Tories love to leave out the details that count. Obviously there is a bad poll around, because the trolls are out.
Then don’t read it Mr Denmore. I post in response to other peoples’ posts or questions and will continue to do so unless the owner of the blog asks me to stop. Funnily enough I don’t need the approval of other readers in order to post my opinions. Nor does anyone need my approval to constantly post their predictions that Labor will cruise to victory.
GetReal: I was just going by what was on the 7:30 Report’s page. If I’m wrong, then it is the ABC that is wrong. But still, the quote has some punch.
7
Lionel Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
“On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ’swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%. Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?”
…
I reckon the high 55’s – 55.7% but I’ve no data to support this….:)
It’s tracking exactly as it has been for many weeks. If Kevin Rudd doesn’t win this election it would be extremely surprising. He’s done about as much as one can do.
It would only be inertia and fear that made voters stay with the retiree.
Lose the election please why do you want to Lose the election?
Please explain?
I think LTEP is just taking a little longer to come to the conclusion that it’s over (barring major stuff ups) than the rest of us. Perfectly understandable considering the history of the last three elections. Only last weekend there was a lot more hand wringing here than there is at the moment.
LTEP, at 64, but we all know your opinion. You express the same opinion in every single post. You’re a bit like Denis Shanahan. Whatever happens in the real world, in Denis’ universe John Howard is just a gnat’s nosehair away from a brilliant, come-from-behind victory. In your universe, ALL of the polls have got it completely wrong and Labor is going to get poleaxed at the final hurdle.
If it makes you feel better seeing the world that way (ie: being pathologically pessimistic so you can be pleasantly surprised when events turn out otherwise), go for your life. But it’s very, very boring. And adds nothing to the debate.
Pancho Says:
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Pancho relax, we are not throwing away 11 years of prosperity. After all the Chinese government and the management of BHPB will still be in place, so in the short term our prosperity is assured!
Fair point socks.
John Hunt at 69, I think LTEP is like one of those tiresome party-pooping doomsayers at the pub who grimly warns fellow supporters of his favourite sporting team that the team will choke, all the while secretly hoping that his long odds bet comes in so that he can look like a hero. Call it a pathetic grab for attention.
I don’t express the same opinion in every post. Many of my posts aren’t related to predictions, but more on policy (eg. teachers’ pay, WorkChioces, proportional representation in the Senate).
When someone asks if the Coalition can come back from here I provide my advice… which funnily enough… is usually the same. It’s possible but not probable.
In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible. I’m just putting it out there.
Some people just hate to have someone putting out an opinion that contradicts the group-think.
As the analysts said last night on the 7:30 Report, now is the time that Rudd has to look more confident (but not too confident) and run the message home. That will cement the idea he is the leader of choice. Rudd’s launch made him the ‘leader of the future’ by tying things to computers and high-speed broadband. Rudd just announced a health policy for kids entering school, that’s health and education. What does Howard promise, highway sh*tters! That’s the difference at the moment.
Howard has no rabbits left, Rudd hasn’t even had to use any of his.
Mr Denmore
it was actually ‘lance corporal” not Lieutenant Corporal
anyway “who do you think you are kidding mr hitler” etc
It’s an interesting phenomenon: on one side you have outright denial and on the other abject paranoia. All caused by the same events – the last 3 elections. It affects people in varying degrees.
It’s also very understandable.
Yeah, sorry, but I’m losing my patience with the Gloomtrolls, and absolutely inane LNP commentators here.
Why cant we have some top notch RWDBs here, like Andrew Norton? That guy will give you a run for your money on any topic.
As for Gloomtrolls, can I just note this is a psephology site: if you have no regard *whatsoever* for consistent opinion polling over some 9 months, and prefer to feel things ‘in yer waters’, what exactly is the attraction to this blog?
Ah, nevermind. Id best log out for a few hours. Just got hit with the grumpy stick.
Socrates: Pancho was joking, he/she started the joke by saying “Once people start focusing…”. That’s the problem about forums, unless you read the whole thing you miss the intent.
I think LTEP can be a little bit negative, but doesn’t deserve some of the comments that have been written above. I think its good to have a bit of a balanced view, even though I’m of the personal view that the election is over as a contest.
Just on the matter of laptops…I was talking to a teacher friend of mine last night. She made the point that schools are going to have to put on extra security if there’s a computer for every kid in years 9-12. She says computer theft is already rife at schools, as is “laptop-snatching” from private school kids travelling on public trnasport to school.
On the other hand, if every kid has access to a computer, they may feel less inclined to steal!
And she did agree that computers for all senior kids in government schools was a fantastic idea. At the moment, schools are fored to buy half their computers from what they can raise from parents in fees and fetes.
“Sorry mate not this time”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptzRgfYKoLk
Another good ALP Ad.
I’d say Rudd needs to undo some of the damage caused by the FUD put out by the Liberal party. And once again, what are they gonna do about Paterson? And are there other seats like Paterson that they are (seemingly) giving up on?
Roberte
The highest TPP in history is 56.5
Labor in office?
First heart breaking jobs to ok the pulp mill and the dredging of Port Philip Bay.
Next to wiggle out of the promised tax cuts.
For Laborites, this next nine days will be as good as it gets for ten years.
Enjoy!
(Unless the Greens control the Senate promptly which will make everything easier for you.)
LTEP 75
But your name says “Lose the election please”
What does it mean other than what it says?
Then you go on to say:
“In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible.”
Well this is a site discussing polls. So if you don’t believe in polls it is hardly the best place to hang around.
Also if someone has a “good shot” at something it is a lot better than “not probably but possible”. Anything is possible but not all things are probable. Having a good shot is close to 50/50.
Maybe there is some confusion due language and meaning of words. This makes the communication and understanding a lot more difficult.
LTEP, face it. You’re a pooper.
Hi Will,
no problemo – was just correcting the record but your point is well made, as was hartchers:
the polls are definitely displaying deadly intent and are certainly not “jocular” for johnny….wonder when some journo is going to revisit that question: ie, mr howard, do you still think the public are having some joke at your expense…?
frankly, before this 6 week marathon i would have been content with 80 plus seats, but now i’m just getting tired and grumpy – just like john – so I’m thinking more along 90 plus! he really has worn out his welcome in every sense of the term.
Isabella@53
To mangle a metaphor – What you don’t know may not kill you, but probably makes you look silly.
You see the Federal Government (thats Rattus Rattus and crew) has already dumped the money for a school network and computers and internet access. The money is of course conditional, and is confined to its budget. In a sense I’m sure a few people are a bit perplexed, although the RuddStar has promised a computer per child, rather than the current computers for the school.
But you see the money is Federal and they basically control it – so you tell me in whom’s pocket is Rattus Rattus?
Probability and possibility are completely different. It can be a possible for x to happen but altogether improbable. For example it’s possible you’ll flip a coin and get heads 100 times in a row, but highly improbable.
My conclusion is… it’s possible the Coalition could win this election if everything goes their way (eg. the polling narrows 1-2% and the swings happen just right). However this is not probable. Again, it’s also possible the polls are all wrong but not probable.
Many people have asked me over the past week or two whether I still think the Coalition will win. I haven’t answered because I don’t know. But I won’t go as far as some to say it’s in the bag.
Last post on the matter.
The key question with LTEP; is the glass half full or half empty. If he is a half empty sort of guy then he has the same problem such people always have, people just get fed up with it.
Pancho,
Again to be fair, I have no more sympathy for the current NSW State Labor govt on economic management than I have for Howard. Both have been the beneficiary of fortunate circumstances, and neither have planned for the future.
Constant Lurker 86
You seem to be able to predict the future like Nostradamus.
How come you did not see this armageddon coming and warn all righteous people?
LTEP, maybe you need to change name to –
Lose the election? Please! (say it Joan Rivers style)
I wonder if Jaques will allow me to borrow his bat come Nov 24? He just made another century. There is something about his bat I like. *evil grin*
Socrates, I think you are being more than fair to both bunches of clowns. A lot more is at stake in Howard’s slumber than Iemma and Costa’s in my opinion.
estmiated TPP for ALP in 1943 is 60%.
It was Curtins for the UAP
Dinndale Pirahna @ 88
Talking of “poop”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22769105-5001021,00.html
Say, hello gusface at 77.
Thought you were locked up for the duration?
Did Peter Russo get you out?
OK…. but on the last thread at 12:58pm you said this:
Sounds like it’s possible that neither side will win.
Please welcome the next Prime Minister of Australia, Bob Brown.
People ,enough with the ad-hominem attacks.
LTEP, please try to be more positive. Negativity never helps people understand. There are always positive aspects, even at the worst of times (which I doubt this election will be for the ALP). Consider 2004, for example. The ALP gained Adelaide and Parramatta. They lost the election, but Howard set the seeds for his own destruction when he gained his majority in the Senate.
To paraphrase Command and Conquer – “Howard has written his own obituary”. And it’s name is WorkChoices.
New Labor ad… sorry if this has been posted before
http://www.youtube.com/australianlabor
Will and Pancho
Sorry, I completely misunderstood. Too obsessed with the demise of the rodent.
LTEP, I am an independent and do not belong to nor support any political party, but when anyone asks me who is going to win the election, I have to say Labor on the evidence.
It would be very hard for Labor to lose it.
There are a good five seats in NSW, most likely two in Tasmania, at least three in South Australia, maybe one or two in WA, four or five in Vic and surely at least six in Queensland.
My bet still is Labor 85, Coalition 62 and 3 independents (one surprise one).
Why do you think the betting odds are so much in Labor’s favour?
Heres an interesting exercise.
I plugged in the state sings from today’s Morgan breakdown into the calculator (where no swing was given I used the national swing). I then subtracted possum’s 4% MOE to give the coalition the best possible result within MOE. The result was a Coalition majority (75 seats) in a hung parliament (Labor had 73 seats).
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=0.9&vic=6&qld=6.1&wa=1.4&sa=3.4&tas=2.8&act=2.8&nt=2.8&retiringfactor=1
Of course the chances of this happening are practically non existent.
Yes Ashley, I revoke that statement. I think it’s pretty clear, objectively, that a Labor loss is possible but not probable. Many here though refuse to admit it’s even possible Labor could lose.
Still… better than not admitting the Coalition could possibly lose (steven_kaye et al.)
More good news from Morgan. As some journo said earlier this week, if the polls turn out to be wrong and Howard wins, then all polling companies may as well shut their doors as there won’t be any customers looking for their ’skills’.
This one just reinforces that the “real” support out there is split 55/45 in favor of the ALP.
Must be hard for the Rattus Crew when they haven’t even had any outlying polls really going their way.
I would agree with a previous poster that if thats the case, I’d expect that the result would be on the higher side of the MOE for the ALP. (Yayyyyyy! )
Any of the stats heads out there know if there is any way to test that proposition from the available data??
Dont know if the glass half full/empty is the right analogy for LTEP. I think whats happening is he’s calling a glass that is 95% full (the statistical probability of an ALP win) half empty. When that happens you’re getting into issues of personality. But thats fine, i’ve got friends who are the same way.
Sorry, should be swing and Newspoll
G’day y’all I was interstate and am back now. Any of my fellow Libs out there?
According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of foreign land
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
His barren Princess assigned will lance Joward’s heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
At the risk of becoming like the MSM I will recycle something I posted at teh end of teh previous thread:
While I respect and understand people’s caution, I think Labor can be legitimately confident by now. Australians don’t like hubris and Rudd and all other candidates should be humble and careful, but really lets look at the week ahead:
- Monday should see a newspoll published with the reaction to Rudd’s launch
- Haneef’s appeal will be in court, with an attorney general in caretaker mode unable to gag any embarrassing revelations
- Abbott’s remarks will haunt him all week, because they are on film, and relate to a key element of the Coalition’s strategy
- banks will gradually pass on the interest rate rise, just to remind people
- Howard has no more money to spend without looking inflationary
- by Friday it will be too late
Here are my views of Howard’s best options to turn around the last week:
- publish evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard
- invent evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard (that can’t be disproven till after Saturday)
- black out reporting of the count and have young liberals stuff the ballot boxes
- military coup
John of Melbourne… sounds like you were further than interstate! You been in Texas y’all?
Alex McDonnel, that would only be the case if each state was at the bottom end of the MoE. Not a high probability (see my coin toss analogy).
Very good Sudoka Killer! You could write an entire book.
LTEP 107
Of course a Labor loss is possible.
It’s also possible that Ivan Milat will be elected as the next Pope. You never know.
Only a handful of commentators have called the election result to date, most are still hedging their bets, so the attacks on LTEP on here are a bit much IMO.
It’s not over yet. Eight more days and you can all rant about how right you were about the ALP p*ssing it in.
Until then LTEP and others have every right to question the dominant thinking in here that it’s in the bag.
LTeP no I was in WA. Very hot in WA.
Pancho, re#12. So we make you sick —— Good!
I’ll tell you what makes us sick. Abbott saying that if your employer takes away all your conditions, go out and get another job.
What if all employers start taking away your conditions? What kind of an idiot employer is not going to take away your conditions when there is more money in it for him.
Abbott has had a blinder this campaign LOL. The worst performing minister in a political campaign that I have ever seen.
Abbott you are out of touch!
In the interests of balance, if the MOE is off in the other direction the outcome would be:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=10&qld=10&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
Socrates – to quote a saying from some US pollie apparently, ‘Rudd would have to be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl’ to lose this election.
LTEP 107
Lose the argument but please win the election, right?
The reality is that these are the best polling figures for Labor in a long long time. And they might not be repeated for quite a while. I wonder how you manage to get through a campaign if and when it is a close election…the mind boggles…
The betting markets are shortening rapidly on Labor… pretty much everyone is now between 1.28 and 1.30.
The trifecta of the ACN, the rorts, and the Abbott have really taken the wind out of the sails.
Grants corruption and Abbott’s mess will ensure Howard regains no futher ground. AND I believe Rudd will pick up a little more ground over the next few days.
The trend is with Labor, the undecideds will pick it up and, fed-up soft Liberal voters will jump to Labor or to ‘Others’. Labor’s TPP will be less 54.5 to 55.5 unless the Liberal party actually do something illegal.
There will be less sense of a fear of change this time around. People do feel comfortable with Rudd and quite a bit dissapointed with Howard, especially the way he and his team have self-destructed.
I’ve gotta say, thanks to the person who posted the link to the “It’s Time” video on Youtube. I’m having great fun messing with a hack on there.
http://mail.lycos.com/lycos/Index.lycos?right=%2Flycos%2Fmail%2FMailList.lycos%3FFOLDER%3DInbox
Misty 118
The problem with LTEP is not his incessant pessimism, it’s his reflexive dismissal of the objective evidence in favour of his gut feelings.
John, I was in WA too, 39 degree heat on Monday. Incidentally, whilst in Forrest visiting my parents I saw lots of Kevin07 posters (only a few Nola Marino ones).
115 LEP
See my post at 106 for that result
Reminder Adelaide listeners.
Nicole on 5AA at 3.30. Amanda Blair.
Watch your back, Nic. In fact don’t even turn it..they put up a mock interview just after 1pm, making you out to be dumb as and making reference to your boobs!
Charmers!
Amanda is a fat evil jealous cow.
LTEP, whenever I feel uneasy I look at this graph:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-1996v2007-newspoll-primary.png
and then it’s all better again.
Alex,
At this stage that is my view too. Howard has no ideas left, nor surplus to spend.
It occurred to me that, in a perverse way, it could be fun to watch Fox News on election night, or any TV coverage with Shanahan, Albrechtson or others on air live. Assuming results run to script, there could be a few grimmaces of pain visible.
Spiros I don’t remember rejecting any objective evidence. I’ve said time and again all the evidence points to a Labor win. A loss is possible but not probable. I don’t know how much clearer I can get.
the MOE for Morgan was 3.3% so try the meter again
GetReal at 61
Pity nobody ever cleaned up the Minchin audio on WorkChoices Mk II.
Can’t be done with standard audio software. But it can be done with software designed for forensic purposes.
I would say that the Coalition has at most a 5% chance of winning from here.
Lose The Election Please, do you intend to come clean at some point and admit that you are a rusted on Coconut supporter, or not?
Mate, I picked it from the first comment that I read from you.
I’m off to WA (Freo) tonight for 4 days R&R. Forecast – mid teens to mid 20s. A bit cooler than last weekend! $49 each way with Crapstar.
Come on Centre, turn the sarcasm detector on. I promise to never again make a dry remark and/or parody GP without putting a smiley face at the end.
Lefty E
What does RWDB mean? Right Wing Dead beats? Andrew Norton is the biggest neoliberal!! Its almost boring
126 – sorry, that should be http://youtube.com/watch?v=vqMCZBjvmD4
is the nicole cornes interview streamed on the intermanets?
LTEP #128,
Labor doesn’t seriously hope to win Forrest. What they’re doing is a) hoping to damage Marino enough that an Indie can upset her, and/or b)get said Indie into Parliament owing Labor a moral debt.
Yes Centre, I love the Libs. Long live Howard. My work here is done now that I have infiltrated the ALP’s top-most minds.
Anyone who wants a graphic demonstration of the rotten nature of the Coalition and its total debasement of any notion of good government should take a look at a snapshot on Peter Martin’s blog from the auditor general’s just released report.
The snapshot shows a desperate last minute allocation of regional development grants in marginal electorates just before the issuing of writs for the 2004 election. Nearly $3.5 million in our money was ladled out in the space of a half hour.
I ask you: Is the mark of sound economic management? How much further proof do the doubters now need that this government must be put out of its misery??
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/productivity-coalition-style.html
That new ad with the worker is gold! Neutralises that strike/destroy economy one the libs have been running. Alot better than the woman one, which is great on its own.
Spiros – unfortunately on occasion intuition can be a better predictor of the future than the scientific.
I can understand the intuitive response that says Howard is far from gone. Chris Ulhman expressed something similar the other morning didn’t he, with his “the vampire could still get out of the coffin” remark.
I won’t be writing the rodent off until the night of the 24th. I can easily imagine a scenario where this week’s 54/46 becomes 53/47 next week, which becomes 52/48 on election day – which may still make it a tight contest if Howard’s pork has been successful in the marginals.
It’s unlikely, but as LTEP states, it is possible.
Pancho,
Next time remember to use the laugh track like they do on American Comedy shows as some people need to be told when something is a joke.
Well I must sign off for the weekend and finish my work. Thanks again to William for an excellent site.
And thanks to Tony Abbott, for making my day in a most unintended way
Socrates – I will be watching ABC but will also have my lap top logged onto PB. But will surf across other TV stations to see what kind of ridiculous comments are being made by the neo cons.
Just so long as Malcolm Mackerras does not predict a Labor win and the other polls stay the way they are then all will be well for Rudd.
134 Bring Back
Was that comment for me? Newspoll claims it as 4% for the state by state breakdowns, which is what I was working off.
“Sampling error ranges from plus or minus 2 percentage points on the total sample to plus or minus 4 percentage points for the state with the smallest sample size.”
on the most optimistic figures the best vote for the coalition from Morgan gives one 47.3 % which gives them only 67 seats and the ALP 81 seats.
LTEP does forrest take in Bunbury?
I saw lots of lib candidate photos about but none taken with JWH.
NB, you said Morgan.
forget it if you were taking Newspoll
Coonan vs Conway on Skynews right now
Pancho it was so well said. The conservatives here would have been so proud.
Yes John of Melbourne… my parents live in the lowly suburb of Usher (right next to Withers, which Marino refuses to doorknock in).
155 Sorry, corrected myself a few lines down. Only an exercise after all, akin to ‘what would I do if I won Lotto’?
Today’s attack on the Auditor General by Government Ministers over their blatant rorting of tax payer funds really sums up the last 11 years for me. We’ve seen the spirit of democracy slowly, surely strangled as the Rodent’s bully boys viciously attack all and any critics. Its time to finally bury this Government’s rancid, diseased carcass and to let new, democratic life flourish once again.
Centre I was just trying to reverse wedge em. Everyone’s doing it these days.
Communications debate live now on zdnet.com.au
160 GMT
Rudd and co should be on the news tonight pointing out Rattus’ habit of always shooting the messenger.
I think it was originally Right Wing Death Beast, actually, bird.
Norton is a neo-liberal, yes. He’s also intelligent, and argues well. Wish there was more of that from our resident RWDBs here, thats all!
Well, I’m off now for 4 days. William, will throw a few bucks into PayPal to help keep your excellent site operating. avagoodweegend folks.
Lay off LTEP, he might be mundane and depressingly ‘on message’, but this is a political sight. I have shared the pessimism he covets over the ALP’s chances for years, and have only recently (tentatively) kicked the habit. Addiction is a powerful drug, which often can only be overcome with a LABOR VICTORY!!!!
142 Henry. It will stream. I tried to get onto their online, but couldn’t.
LTEP why so?
Putting MOEs to one side for a sec, what of that other variable – the undecided (the undead as I like to call them. How the hell could your mind not be made up yet?)? An Age online poll (dicey, I know) has 98% of 3430 voters saying their minds are made up. Do the psephos out there have an opinion on the undecided? Is the Age basically correct and there aren’t a mass of people out there who are going to make up their mind as they wander into the booth? Thoughts?
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/voted.html
A little off topic here. Remember when you would ask you dad, “Who would win in a fight between…blah, blah?” (stegosaurus vs allosaurus, wonderwoman vs spiderman etc) those ones. Who would win in a boxing match between John “Ravenous Rodent” Howard and Kevin “Milky Bar” Rudd? 15 rounds, WBA sanctioned…
Lots more fun than a bloody 2-month campaign, and JH may have a better shot at defending his title.
LTEP #128,
Labor is spending resources in Forrest to do 2 things:
1. Force the Libs to do likewise – with a new candidate and a large swing, Forrest could be in danger, ergo the Libs must spend their campaign resources in normally-safe seats like Forrest.
2. Hopefully gain an upset IND victory (I believe there’s a strong IND candidate running), who will be i)easier to deal with than an LP MHR, and ii) owe the ALP something of a moral debt for easing his way in.
Lefty E
In regards to Andrew Norton – do not you find to argue within such a narrow ideological paradigm as RW fundamentalism, just so austere…….
So what are you doing for election night btw?
Thanks Crikey, am watching the Coonan – Conroy debate instead!
After a sedate start the gloves are off already!
Boll: You don’t read BLeak’s cartoons at The Australian?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,25198,5024288-20581,00.html
Now Conroy is outright laughing at her!
170
No contest. John’s footwork might have been fancy four years ago, but he seems to be stumbling all over the place now. Also, Rudd has a longer reach.
Must say I prefer the wrestling analogy though.
“Rudd has The Rat on the mat. What’s this? Rudd has pulled out his signature move the THE LANDSLIDE. This won’t be pretty folks, send the kids from the room now…”
I’m a bit of a sceptic like LTEP, but have become increasingly confident this week.
Nothing is going right for the coalition. They have no issue which is getting real traction. They are all looking rather glum. They are going from scandal to gaffe to scandal.
The ALP’s campaign came together this week. They are disciplined and look confident. They are campaigning in safeish coalition seats. They have momentum and the polls have been rock solid.
Yeah miracles happen. But I just can’t see the current rabble pulling off the biggest upset victory in Australian political history.
#174 thanks Andos. some of the funniest stuff I’ve seen in ages.
121
NB Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
just edit the figures in the link to what you need:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=12&qld=12&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
“The minister tries to re-write the laws of physics” – Stephen Conroy.
This is classic stuff!!
Siev XI – Lebovic reckons about 20% say in exit polls they made up their mind either on the day or in the week before.
I think it’s less than that though, and even if they do, it seems they break with the prevailing trend.
I suspect (though of course cannot prove) that people tell pollsters they only made up their minds late to appear more open minded.
Could be wrong though. God knows it’s happened plenty of times before.
Henry, where is the debate? I can’t seem to find it at Sky….,
Now she is suggesting nobbling the ACCC….
So much for the mighty experienced Howard team!
Oil Nelson was sacked from saying anything before the campaign. Andrews and Ruddock have gone missing. Downer is next to useless. Turnbull has been a big floparoo. They are too scared to show Cossie cause he might smirk. And Abbott?
What can we say about Abbott? Do you know the big beer ad!
Abbott is out of touch
He is sooo out of touch
He is so out of freaking touch that it’s huuuuuuuuuge!
182.
Its at…
http://zdnet.com.au
My main concern is in the ad break. The coalition have, on cue, resorted to scaring the bejesus out of the population through blatant untruths. I think the man & woman ‘really Mr Howard’ ads need to be run more, as well as the interest rates. Nothing like a good dose of truth to quell the lies.
here we go again, Hanson ghost haunts Howard…
http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2007/11/15/1194766869667.html
or news.com.au Matthew Cole
Me, Ill be handing out HTVs for the Greens in Kath & Kim Country all day, then hosting a wee election party/ BBQ thingy.
TV on ABC, laptop on wireless, beer on ice.
#185,
I can’t see a video – I’m hearing the story, and Coonan sounds peeved and petty, as opposed to Conroy’s smoothness.
anyone seen this crikey tip?
‘Talk down at the Swamp (The West’s HQ) is that the Editor is once again sitting on some polling data. The Federal Westpoll has yet to be published despite having been with him for over a week now. Readers might recall that the editor has previously forgotten to publish Westpoll results that showed the ALP doing well. Journo’s believe the failure to publish the Westpoll means the Editor doesn’t like the results – could be bad news for the Liberals in WA.’
tsk tsk
Coonan’s lost the plot.
You very bad man Mr Conroy!!
He can’t contain himself!!
Burgey and Siev XI: Antony says the undecideds break out at 2/1 in favour of the flow. My guess this will be more pronounced with large swings (5% or more).
Antony, if you’re around, can you explain the reasoning behind the 2/1 breakdown. Obviously the mood of the time is a factor, but is this some inherent rusting on with these so it gives a base 33% each and the other 33% just goes with the mood or what?
There’s some analysis here regarding four to five weeks of campaign polling in the previous four elections. It’s remarkably accurate and holds no comfort for Coalition supporters hoping for a dramatic turnaround in 2007.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1850
Where, oh where, is L2?
He was back to his smarty-pants best with that mob of sycos on Monday, but what’s he been doing since?
Has he been campaigning in Higgins? Oh dear…
If he doesn’t raise his head in the next few days, and Monday’s (Sunday’s?) Newspoll is grim, then my guess is he will be angling to keep a low profile till Saturday week. To continue to campaign alongside Howard is to firmly identify yourself as being equally responsible (culpable) for the oncoming rout. Not a good look for someone who still has a future(?) in politics.
The charade of the Libs having two leaders will have Costello chalking up one election loss already! LOL.
I think hiding is his best option. But he still has to win Higgins.
Yeah, I agree about the scepticism, the longer this goes on the more worrried and sceptical you get.
Back in February March I was thinking 83 seats, then September October 92 seats, now I’m thinking 117 seats.
Henry #193,
But the temptation to take the dig at the Audit report was too much.
Debate on Skynews
Shut Coonans up. She is so rude interrupting & talking over everybody. This is not a debate. I work in telecommunications & she is telling fibs.
Nicole Cornes is giving a series of anti-politics answers to questions on 5AA.
She isn’t giving the Labor sound bites, but she is giving her own unorthodox answers to some pretty straight forward questions.
I have no idea if this will help her win, but she sounds like the candidate that people SAY they want, someone who isn’t a cookie cutter pollie, but someone who speaks like a normal person.
I think it was private Taffy (the undertaker) who used to say “we’re doomed I tell you, doooooooomed”. Corporal Jones would run around waving his arms saying “don’t panic! don’t panic! Mr Mainwaring”, or my favorite ,whilst holding his bayonet “they don’t like it up ‘em!”.
This is could be the state of the Liberal party election strategy:-0
Nicole performed very well. Brought Amanda some gifts, and ‘flakes’ for her kids. Including a Kevin 07 shirt for Amanda.
Got in her repudiation of ‘working families never been better off’.
Referred to her links to the community. Her law degree, social justice aspects.
Praised Kev.
Her values, the representation of community as a Parliamentarian.
Amanda refers to the Cornes bank balance, suggests Nicole not in touch with the ‘common man’. Gracefully refers to her childhood, pensioner parent, worked in an aged care home at age 14, as volunteer at first and then paid. Talked of tasks she undertook. Showering, dressing, toilet cleaning. Left school at 15.
Refers to her small business career. Law degree. The difficulty of her first interview. With her small children in the room.
Emphasises Labor values, talks of Gough Whitlam’s achievements.
Labor Party is about rights for working families.
Sticks up for herself as not shielded. Fills in background on what actually happened with Julia at Marion yesterday, after the media had been earlier afforded every opportunity to pose questions, which they did not. Until, the opportunity grab outside, for the cameras. Julia was not ‘nursing’ her, or being her ‘Mum’ as Amanda put it. Julia fed up with media behaviour, by the sound of it.
Answers callers qestions on policy. Childcare rebate and places. Dental scheme teenagers. Personally believes in voluntary student union membership.
Childcare. Increasing rebate to 50%, places. Dental scheme teenagers. Medicare.
(Has head around this stuff, for sure).
Would take it as a great compliment to represent Boothby.
Passionate, we need more women in Parliament..
Applause from CW.
ruawake – coonan lost the plot? More, please. Major gaffe?
118 Misty
I agree – LTEP is entitled to his pessimism – have the rest of you not been in the country since ‘96? I know the polls were nothing like they are now, but some of us have learnt to be pessimistic. It’s the only way to handle defeat (if it happens). It also heightens the euphoria if we do win.
She is a shrew. Just a shrew.
Things have calmed down a little, not too much guffawing from Conroy when she answers. Very dry digital channels stuff now.
Come on Steve, get fired up.
How would you like to wake up with Coonans looking at you.
I think if you look at the Newspoll 2001 post election poll 29% said they made their mind up in the last week and told who they voted for. And after allowing for preferences I think it worked out to about 59/41 in favour of Labor for that election.
No gaffe – just shouting, ranting raving. Even Speers was getting peeved – he keeps telling her to shut up (quietly).
Shaboh #206,
Not one bit. She’s a horrid person, and a shrew.
thanks will and burgey, hopefully anty from aunty can add abit more
Thanks for the update on Nicole Crikey.
So she passed this mini test with flying colours by the sound of it?
Any votes in it for her?
From what i have seen/heard of her she seems like a nice lady. Has air of vulnerability and genuineness to her which I like and I think might resonate with the public.
Coonan is claiming that ABC is well-funded by the Government….WTF?
Is Cornes out of her box again eh? We’ll have to nail it shut next time, just after a short jocular conversation
Labor to have more communications announcements next week! Wow!
More guffawing from Conroy as The Coonan interrupts!
Gods, can she stop talking over him? She is SO rude……
Newspoll 2001 Post election – those who made their mind up in the last week
26% made up their mind in the last week.
24% ALP
17% LNP
45% Others
the rest? not stated.
Didn’t Morgan show that Latham ALP was on 56 just in the last week of the last campaign?
With this Morgan Poll, I prefer to see the figures from the ‘Preferences distributedby how electors say they will vote’ which shows a 57-43 split rather than the ‘Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election’ which shows a 56.5%-43.5% split.
The major polls keep showing their figures as though the preferences are going to split as they did in 2004, when I believe that the preferences will split with another 0.50-0.75% added to the Labor TPP this time around.
This one is all over. ‘Please welcome into the room, the new Prime Minister of Australia… Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’
Without being offensive to women she is the stereotype woman you don’t wish to see in politics or even more as political leaders eg Bronnie Bishop.
Julia Gillard is different in style. When I see her debating I don’t see her interrupting or talking over people. Classic example was when Abbott had his bad day when he was late at his debate etc…. He appeared on Lateline that night & was on a hiding to nothing with Julia. Even though he was an easy mark Julia listened & waited till he finished his sentence before talking. A class act. Coonans is just damn rude & is behaving like a aggressive male.
Conroy slam dunks her with the 16yr old kid who got around the $83M porn filter in 30 minutes!!
“Oh but Stephen this should be above politics” she sniffs.
Coonan epitomises the typical liberal woman. head so far up in the air she doesnt realise she is walking off a cliff.
Yes,Henry.
Nicole came over as clear, honest, genuine, caring. Callers clearly liked her. She stuck up for herself very well. No fluster. Indicated that knowing policy inside out is not first and only, representation of electors is primary.
Admitted to the learning curve, how Bob Hawke had offered her a bit of advice, that she was learning from mistakes.
I’m sure she would appeal, in general and in person.
I did meet her at the SA Press Club. Struck me as very nice, sincere.
Cue more laughter from Conroy as the shrew mangles another questions.
Honestly she is a spud.
Really though Speers is giving her a lot of leeway. Bias to the Libs????
Above politics?? Didnt they spend $21 million advertising the $83 million porn filter?
LTEP, of course it’s possible for the Coalition to win the election – all they have to do is get enough votes. On that logic it’s also possible for the Democrats to win the election. But the question for supposedly well-informed election-watchers is not what is theoretically possible, but what is LIKELY. What is likelihood of the Coalition winning? They need a 5% swing in a week. What possible EVENTS or ISSUES could tip voter sentiment 5% in one week? Nothing that I can think of. If voter sentiment had been volatile all year, it might be arguable. But it hasn’t, it’s been very steady. All the objective evidence is that the voters made up their minds months ago, and that nothing in the campaign has budged them. Do you really think that another week of ranting about union bosses will suddenly do what six months of ranting about union bosses has failed to do?
Have to get my bucket out and start watering. Sigh. So HOT!
Conroy cleaned up Coonan with the VOIP question. I mean, as communication minister, surely she should be across the technical details of the network that she is planning to have the private sector deploy.
Speers has to give Coonan some leeway – otherwise everyone would be rolling on the floor laughing at her.
Yep, dont wrote off Cornes people. Looking unfamiliar with the machine politics, vulnerable, and generally anti-politician is hardly a bad look, especially for a woman with considerable middle aged bloke appeal and AFL connections.
Final statments – shrew first, Conroy is laughing his tits off in the background!
I hope I don’t offend anybody.
Here is a great site:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/whos_a_pretty_pollie_then_.htm
I always thought Kate Ellis (Labor) was easy on the eyes but wow whee, Georgina Anderson (Libs)!
She just goes on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on
And now Coonan’s getting a free question from the “impartial” moderator.
She’s using it to attack ALP’s broadband money. His response is to point out the funding levels and sources.
Conroy’s question – a 16-year-old schoolboy managed to bypass the LP’s “filters” that have cost $86 million. Coonan has attacked the question, saying that it should be “above politics”, and finally answers that he was able to bypass the filter because he had admin functions on the computer. So she advises keeping all under-18s off admin access on family computers?
Coonan’s Q2: Attacks ALP’s broadband, saying that it’s not giving access. Conroy’s response – the plan will give access to 98%, and Fed will create a plan to get access to other 2%.
Conroy – OECD report stating high business communications costs. Does Coonan support cheaper business communications and if so, why does she support an internet plan that cannot deliver VoIP (OPEL)? Coonan avoided the question.
Coonan’s final statement – attack’s ALP “inexperience”, “lack of detail”, “risk to trn-dollar economy”……booooooring. Apparently ALP wants to abolish digital Australia. Apparently, ALP State Govt’s are amassing debt (WTF? all in surplus), and attacks ALP’s economics (she should know better by know). Also off-topic.
Conroy’s final – choice between past and future. Points out Coonan’s disparity between city/rural areas. Points out Coonan’s dodge of his VoIP question.
Bet Sky News Poll gives it 60-40 to Cooonan
I’m voting for Nicole! go girl…meeting her tomorrow at a street corner meeting too & so are lots of my friends.
I went to a Sol (Telstra) seminar once & even he attacked Coonans lack of telecommunications technology. I remember him saying she doesn’t know when to shut up.
236 – Apologies for the gratuitous sexism, but Nicole is also pretty damn cute imo.
Well, overall – Coonan’s pathetic, but then again we all knew that. Conroy appears to be out of her league as fair as grasp of detail is concerned, and he is also much better at speaking.
#232 cheers John, an enjoyable 5 minutes there. Deeply offended nonetheless.
Al in Boothby. What about taking her an edit of the thread?
I may not make it, got a Greens thing. Yes, I know I’m voting Labor. HOR.
Yeah I’d have a crack at Nicole too
Thanks all for the running comments … sounds as through Nicole gained some Brownie points and Coonan scared the horses …
Coonan, Ruddock, Vaile, Howard – all you get is blah blah blah.
Atleast with labor it’s new blah blah blah. quick I wanna vote for them…
PS with regards to Nostradamus prediction #113 (LNP 61: ALP87: IND2), I have just channelled him and he offers his sincere apologies (unlike the LNP) for the “Barren” term used.
JoM, i’d pretty well guarantee she’d find you singularly unattractive. wtf is all this c^&p?
Once again.
This is a political site!
Find your own space or get into the shower, John of Melbourne.
Out of site, out of mind.
passthepopcorn she’d think I was adonis
Lol. No only kidding. I was just pasting a link which asks how’s Election 07 shaping up in the beauty stakes?
It is not really the done thing to call idiots idiots so you intellectually challenged twits really need no spend no more than one minute at Oz Politics to get the real story. Have effectively shut up some equally verbose conservatives by directing them to this sight. Any analyst worth his salt would die laughing at the ridiculous notion of a comeback. In psychology it is called cognitive dissonance (look it up darlings) get over it, have a little cry and say welcome to a better and fairer Australia. Auditor General = Death Penalty. So long and thanks for all the fish.
Crikey whitey @ 241 – that’s a great idea – would I just cut and paste into a word doc? any other suggestions?
Who wants to bet than Ackerman/Milne will have some “bombshell” revelation (dirt-unit) article this weekend???
Yes, Al. You can select all, copy, paste into word, edit.
Or individually select the posts.
Probably easier to do the former.
I’m sure she would appreciate it.
JoM. So offended!!!!! (Mia in Sturt… is she a chance to win does anyone know?)
232- John
whats looks got to do, got to do, with it…
But go Kate!
Poll today in The Advertiser – Pyne 51 Handshin 49. 45 / 38 on primaries though.
ShowsOn.
Its close! I’ll be rootin’ for her! Boom tish!!! wucka wucka!!!!
Thanks eveyone for the commentary on the Coonan/Conroy debate.
It’s interesting how many of these debates havw seen the shadow deminstrating a good depth of understanding of their portfollio as compared to the Minister,
Crikey @ 250
Sounds good but probably should leave out the lusting ones from various posters…or perhaps not!!!
Ooops Portlandbet just got hacked.
http://betelection.com/elections/
232- HOT POLLIE CHICKS
I can’t believe a progressive man like me with all my pro-equality values would even entertain such an article.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/whos_a_pretty_pollie_then_.htm
Problem is after reading it i can’t stop thinking about those family first girls.
Is it still inapropriate when you KNOW they’re gagging for it anyway?
Oh. Al in Boothby. Don’t forget to leave the site attribution in. It will appear at base of your document. Copyright.
going by the commentary poor old Cooee Coonan got thrashed! (”Cooee” cause that’s how up to date her comms knowledge is)
[Ooops Portlandbet just got hacked.
http://betelection.com/elections/
Or they’re really pissed.
257
Wholly shit it bloody has been- i checked it out NOT using your link too.
No offense intended, but Coonan has a STRIKING similarity to Ms Piggy, in appearance and demeanor:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/senators/homepages/images/photos/2M6.jpg
http://photos.friendster.com/photos/06/27/20497260/14425997725108m.jpg
Wish I had of seen or listened to that Coonan – Conroy debate…..now I think we need to go to the hottest men in Oz politics….mmmI’ll get back to youon that – may take a while.
Big Blind Dave – so politically incorrect – but so VERY funny!!
William I think it’s time you issued a fatwa against this site being used as a masturbation aide.
Vaile cops flak on PM … Radio National.
There always one person that has to go one step too far isn’t there Adam?
Yes, I’m glad I’m no longer alone in people finally telling LTEP that his baseless self-loathing is beyond boring now.
Yes LTEP it’s possible the Coalition can win from here. It’s also *possible* that the Greens will win 76 seats in the House and form the next government – they’re running candidates in all (or almost all) HoR seats so it’s technically possible!
The Democrats are also running enough Senate candidates to reclaim the balance of power. That’s *possible* too!
And yes we could beset with a barrage of poison monkeys in safe Labor seats that bite enough of the populace there and leave them too sick to vote, leading the Coalition to victory on 24th November.
Anything’s possible. Analysis of likely outcomes based on evidence (or even anecdotes) is far more informative and useful — and dare I say it, entertaining!
Adam, I think you’re underestimating the appeal of some of the reported swing data.
I refer you back to your comments regarding Dick Adams.
Fortunately you didn’t write his names the other way around.
Adam: Is that because you and I are missing out?
But I think Big Blind Dave meant Family First Boys.
We know what they’re like.
I can’t think of a better way to spend an afternoon than sitting in front of the cricket on TV, laptop on the lap and connected to this blog and now a glass of good red!
That is an awsome hack at portland. Probably was the kid that got throught the porn filter in 30 mins.
272 Crikey
Come off it, these chicks are probably still virgins- more than i could say for the greens- damn commune life, it steals their best years.
BK. Please, some of us are still at work…… : – (
re 258
“Those outraged by the idea of men finding women attractive should direct all complaints to: The Office of the Prosecutor, International Criminal Court, Post Office Box 19519, 2500 CM The Hague, The Netherlands.”
I’m still laughing.
BK @ 273
I’m having a nice cold dry Riesling ’cause its bloody hot here in Boothby and red wine just wouldn’t cut it…agree though!
I know plenty of real porn sites, so I don’t have to spend any time looking at very small pics of so-called pretty pollies.
There’s no point getting all worked up by a debate between the communications spokespeople. Unless one of them makes a huge gaffe, no one in Voterland’s going to care. However, under this govt there’s been absolutely no progress on broadband, so Coonan’s got to go. At least Labor’s showing some vision on broadband.
What’s with this ‘Horse Australia’ outfit (mentioned in Peter Martin’s list of Pork). Every time I’ve seen a corrupt list of pork whether from Manly Council or the Federal Government piggery ‘Horse Australia’ bobs up as a Tory favorite.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/productivity-coalition-style.html
Middle Man – would you like to swap your work for my age?
But , , , apologies for upsetting you.
Sorry Adam @ 226, I concur. I’ve rehashed your idea, before reading your post…
Nonetheless, glad to finally have some support on this issue though!
Adam @ 265
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=BV5
Balanced restored
Gee whizz, listened to the It’s Time clip someone here posted–and got tears in my eyes! Nine days and all the days of lies, pork, weaselwords, increasing ‘anti terrorist’ laws and the like will be gone! Never to have to listen to Howard’s flat boring monotonous voice! Room and encouragement for ideas and ideals again!
And, hopefully, a nice return from bets on ALP candidates in Bennelong, North Sydney, Ryan, Herbert etc!
Capt Smirk, bereft of Treasury briefings looking like the economic idiot he is, having to ask questions in Parlt instead of his loud, bullying tirades etc.
Yes, it’s time!
Argh. No twilight savings here in Bris so i can’t wander out of the office this early. Still another 30 mins before I can order my first schooner.
Well Adam, me thinks we can unilaterally put a stop to any pollbludger driven self fornication: AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE…
There, bet its gone soft now
Well, out of interest: I once asked Ms LE about spunky bloke pollies, and its thin on the ground according to her – though Stephen Conroy got a guernsey.
LOL!
Thanks John!
I think I’ll move to Bradfield in order to be closer to Victoria :p
You’re all being very conservative in your “coneivable” outcomes.
It is conceivable that Bush invades Iran, Iran responds with nuclear weapons against all members of The Coalition of The Willling.
Martial Law is declared – election is not held. PM Howard returned in elections in 2009. Leads Australia until 2017. He then hands power to Treasurer Vaille to lead the Australian Tory Party,
Conceivable. Not bloody likely, but conveivable.
Lefty E. I’ve seen Conroy at IFSA conferences after a night of free beer and wine. Not pretty.
If anyone has time away from this blog – check out the ABC Unleashed: Sledge videos on YouTube – some are absolutely brilliant – a fav is “Leave John Howard Alone” warning though – you could be there for hours and hours….
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=E2646E76131DA9DB
Just reporting research findings, MM!
Anyway, pfft to all these pulchritudinous pollies.
Emma Alberici is the only woman who could give possibly Ms LE a run for her money.
Combet, Shorten, Kev. Nerds are okay. Gone off Stephen Conroy.
Al in Boothby. On with your work.
53 Isabella “Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops? So kids are to get two taxpayer funded laptops? Is the ALP in the pocket of Dell Computers?”
That comment just shows how really really desperate the Liberals are to make something out of nothing.
Further thought on Dick Adams: where does his face end and his beard begin? Is he like a penguin with lots of fur? Or is that actually the contour of his face and the beard is just stubble?
Lefty E. Now you’re talking. Mrs MM likes to stir me by talking up how hot KR is everytime he pops up on the telly. I wouldn’t mind except that he lives a bit too close to us for it to be comfortable!
el rodente on the wireless saying “he [tony] did not say that” [ie that protections had been taken away].
parallel universe.
i need a drink.
# 69 John Hunt Is A Coward Says:
Lose the election please why do you want to Lose the election?
Please explain?
He is not an ALP supporter. Not with his logic. If you look up the term troll in Wiki it will explain. Via this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
Back to psephology (momentarily). Polling for Newspoll would be happening now.
Labor launch+Abbott’s mouth+Auditor General….any bets on the TPP for Labor? I actually reckon their primary will go above 50.
Crikey – as soon as I have finished my 2nd glass.
I know, the Libs just left the building. Not in Kansas anymore.
So let me get this straight: Abbott didn’t say what he clearly says, on film, for all to see.
You know what: piss off Team Rodent. We’ve had it with your braindead crap.
ABC PM:
Howard spinning madly over abbott’s workchoices mini-epic. Asked if he agreed with abbott’s comment that conditions had been removed, snapped: “He didn’t say that …” Some blah blah … then a transcript of what abbot said. Case closed. To put it delicately, it was not all that good.
[el rodente on the wireless saying “he [tony] did not say that” [ie that protections had been taken away].
parallel universe.
i need a drink.]
The camera LIED OK. We live in a post modernist world which the camera can’t record with ANY accuracy whatsoever.
[He is not an ALP supporter. Not with his logic. If you look up the term troll in Wiki it will explain. Via this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
Fair, fair. He isn’t a troll, he is just a left wing pessimist.
Labor has one twice from opposition since 1945, even when it looks obvious they will win there are many who fear they will lose.
I even dreamt that the National Party won 1 seat in the senate in South Australia, that must mean something.
Chris 300
LTEP would have to be most depressed “Supporter” in the country.
The only other depressed people around here support a mob starting with L.
With these polls who can blame them…lol
Which reminds me of that PJK classic:
“Im not John Howard, Im a hedgehog”.
“Oh, look, he’s a hedgehog!”
Thank you Paul Keating, for everything.
yes, lefty E – the clip was played, and el rodente was asked to comment on why the mad monk said that protections had been taken away. el rodente said “he did not say that, he did not say that”.
actually, make mine a double.
Subj: KEVIN07: A personal thank you from Julia Gillard
Date: 16/11/2007 6:31:40 AM Cen. Australia Daylight Tim
From: kevinO7@kevinO7.com.au
To: Me
A personal thank you from Julia Gillard
As the election day draws ever closer Julia Gillard would like to send a personal thank you to all the people who’ve supported the campaign so far. Through your generous donations, wearing or displaying KEVIN07 Gear, signing petitions or just having your say on the site, the support from all over Australia has been fantastic.
Click here to watch Julia’s message.
If you have subscribed in error to this email or been subscribed without your consent, or for any other reason do not wish to receive any further emails regarding KEVIN07, please click here to unsubscribe.
Authorised by Tim Gartrell, 161 London Circuit, Canberra City, ACT 2600.
Tony was quite clear in his statement at the Warringah election debate. There were NO transcripts, and the question was asked by Hugh Zochling (ALP candidate), not a moderator. The moderator did not ask any questions, it was Tony and Hugh asking each other q’s, and the rest were mostly Liberal hacks making anti-Labor statements with question marks at the end. A hilarious event, rattus’s supporters became very ratty, to the crowds delight. I doubt there’ll be one next election
or mobile phones will be banned
Chris B
To be more precise, someone on here long ago identified LTEP as not just a troll, but a concern troll. Possibly the worst kind of troll.
The bad news is we’ve all fallen into its trap and continue to feed it the attention it seeks so badly…
Dinsdale. I reckon 49 is its max.
LTEP: admit it, you’re a Liberal troll masquerading as a Labor pessimist.
Let me guess, if Rudd is about to win a 20 seat majority on the evening of November 24, you’ll still be claiming Howard can win the election.
We’re trying to see four, John.
Holy crap. This is the campaign moment when tragedy became farce.
LTEP is probably Glen’s alter ego LOL
TofK, someone told me Amanda was a real animal. You better make it Bronwyn Bishop to make sure of it.
leave LTEP alone! i still get twinges of fear…
only 12 days to go now (oh, sorry john, 8 days).
Now Mark Vaille is on radio saying the auditor general was trying to alter the election and that the caretaker provisions might be extended to public servants.
What a f*cking joke. The sooner he gets on his skateboard the better.
No wonder they’ve politicise dthe public service so much. The remaining public servants who are independent ge treated like that when they tell it like it is.
Dire.
God are we still going on about if I’m a concern troll. Who would’ve thought the opinions of one person could cause so much discussion. Funnily enough I’ve never thought it worthy of discussing whether x person is a troll.
Then you can all gang up and feel great about yourselves. Well done.
But back to the question at hand. Someone asked whether a Morgan poll in the final week of the ‘04 election campaign had Latham at 56%. I don’t think so… I don’t think even close to 56%.
The Morgan situation in ‘04 was quite markedly different:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3791/
“The L-NP are leading 52.5% (up 1% on last week’s telephone Morgan Poll); 47.5% ALP (down 1% in the week)”
That seems pretty close to what they finally achieved.
The weekend papers have got sooooo much material to work with….
The Libs won’t be able to get back on message until about Friday next week.
burgey, are you sure that’s what you heard vaile saying?!
make mine a triple.
Centre, we want people to stop getting the jollies out of pollbludger, not start a mass exodus!!! The former minister for caged hair is a little too far in my book
If JWH loses the election (I hope the Ireland scenario will play out here) and we get more interest rate rises then yes it will be true that interest rates will always be higher under Labor.
Also looking at the primary votes polled at around this time Morgan had it at about 38% which is close to what finally occurred.
322 tofk: “minister for caged hair”! i love it.
how about the minister for concrete thinking.
321 – yes, he questioned the timing of the release of the report, despite the AG mentioning in it that the department of transport had delayed its reply, which was why it was late.
LTEP I’m with ya buddy! Who cares what colour or colours he/she is as long as he/she participates in the debate!
Everyone gives Moragn some heat, but they were pretty close last time. Second to ACN i think. or was galaxy 2nd?
Has anyone heard a substantive (by his standards at least) response from Howard on the grants fiasco?
Galaxy was first
I think you’ll find Galaxy was first.
omigod, burgey, i’m longing for the day when these sad excuses for human beings are guillotined.
8 days is all i have to wait.
Next Newspoll should be around 59/41.
This fits in with the Morgan polls and I would not be surprised to see the final result around this mark as labor wins the final week of the campaign.
This will get labor about 117 seats,a good result and a righteous result.
57 -60 new members of parliament coming in, new talent, vision and ideas, and the same amount retired to pasture.
A good cleanout for the libs that gets rid of so much deadwood so they can rebuild anew.
The breaking of the drought as we get a good 3-4 weeks of soaking rain before christmas, even the salt shakers realise now what has been happening, saying that rain has been withheld to punish Australia for its wrong ways. But the drought will end with the end if cooalition rule as it did in 83.
oh thanks.
the OZ says: PRIME Minister John Howard says he stands by all grants issued under the discredited Regional Partnerships Program.
is that substantive enough?
The biggest story of the election campaign is about to break.
The GG will reveal tomorrow that Tony Abbott is, in fact, a Labor mole.
The late appearances at the debate and at the remembrance day ceremony, the swaering at women, the hospital debacle, the abuse of dying men, the fessing up over WorkChoices…they’re not all coincidences. It is part of a sinister plot by Labor to use a willing Tony Abbott to destroy every last shred of credibility the Coalition had.
With help from Mark Vaile, that is.
NOT! 323.
22% under John Howard, the World’s Worst Treasurer.
No further correspondence will be entered into.
Re Adam @ 226
No I don’t believe anything will change in the last week.
Funny you should mention the Democrats winning the election! Whilst at Miss Maud Swedish Restaurant in Perth on Monday I looked at their ‘bean poll’ which prides itself as being correct to a certain .x% in the last few elections. The bean poll said the Democrats would be a runaway success winning the election in a landslide. Whoops… they must’ve had a Dems function at the restaurant one night.
Crikey Whitey
I thought you were heading outside for the bucket brigade an hour ago. This site is too good to leave alone for very long, isn’t it.
JWH.
World’s Greatest Liar.
‘Tony did not say that’.
I have the tape, the transcript.
It must’ve been a wake.
Those beans were all that was left in the party coffers.
Crikey Whitey #336 that was not the mortgage rate!
No further correspondence will be entered into.
I cant believe it Kev’s first job might be sorting out this Balibo 5 verdict… talk about the deep end!
Back again, Middle Man is right: the story in the Oz is here
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769886-601,00.html
Reminds me of Mayor Quimby on the Simpsons: “I stand by my ethnic slur”.
Of course “Diamond Joe” Howard forgot to mention that according to the audit, DOTARS never even checked how the Regional Partnerships Programme money was beign spent, or if the regions even benefited from the cash. So its hard to see how he can say he knows the regions benefited. Who cares? Its only our taxes.
BK. I did a few buckets. Got too hot. Will wait a bit. I’m evens, luckily, tomorrow can use the hose!
no john, it was the cash rate. and your point is?
Howard: Tony only said that WorkChoices took away our “protections” in a short jocular debate with his Labor counterpart. He has said sorry, but has not apologised.
This has probably been posted before, but for those who haven’t seen it sums up the whole LNP attitude. Hilarious to boot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tjftg2XW_M
John@341
Were not rates still under the direct control of the government in those days?
out of here. beer time!
Crikey Whitey
I thought tokenism was the province of JWH et al.
I hope he seeks out a bipartisan position. It could be very difficult for us trying to take retired Indonesian generals to court for war crimes.
348 BK
They sure were. Another example of tory spin. John of Melbourne, stop sticking your head in the sand and admit that the rates were terrible under Howard as treasurer.
Yes passthepopcorn, 22% was just the rate that sent small businesse broke at the time, thanks to John Howard, the battler’s friend who lives in Kirribilli.
Speaking of when Howard was Treasurer, how high was unemployment then too? What about government debt? They weren’t very flattering figures either, as I recall.
I suppose when it comes to recalling his own ecoomic achievements, John Howard is not a fan of the “Black Armband View” of economic history. Prefers a good whitewash.
“In some instances, ministers approved money for projects without even receiving a funding application.
But Mr Howard said he would defend the grants program. ”
Why of course…
Did someone mention Mark Vaile?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/surprise-deputy-pm-suggests-muzzling.html
Labor run hospital
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22769185-2,00.html
Will federal Labor do any better?
Well, hell. It’s 36 degrees, isn’t it?
Got a ‘new leadership’ kevin07 DVD in the mail..probably due to being in a marginal
now THATS electioneering
so will Howard respond and send out a 78 to play on the grammaphone ?
Nah, 22 was a smaller number back then. Numbers have since inflated.
crikey whitey
there are many ways to lock someone up or nobble them
ever read 1984 or brave new world
sometimes (like the ruddmeister) you play em at their own game
someone once said “all power is at the point of a gun”
now i would say its at the ‘click of a mouse’
Vaile is on the Australian’s homepage trying to spin the ANAO report. He’s a disgrace! Here’s the link: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769982-601,00.html
359
Best laugh today
I got to go have a great weekend y’all!
May JWH and the Coalition get an increase of 4% in their primary vote this weekend.
Ah well.
Another week grinds to an end – a week the Liberals needed to win convincingly.
But we have Regional Pork Gate, another Abbott “pseudo gaffe” polls showing the same. The weekend media will be about stuff Howard could only imagine in a nightmare.
Labor are “on message” the Libs are trying to figure out what the message is.
Its all over.
Yes, gusface. Have read. Good you escaped, anyway.
Or the tick of a rodent.
Which seat are you in?
I hope I’m letterboxing those next week.
slow down on those hallucinogenics, john. have a good weekend.
ShowwOn@359
Last week Alan Kohler showed a graph (ABC News, I think) that showed that Australian interest rates hve steadily been at 1,2 times OECD average since the seventies. That is, we have had an interest rate that is a reflection of the reast of the developed world.
This is a chart that Labor should hammer!
Thank God he’s gone.
321 – PTP & Steve @ 355.
Here is Vaile’s response to the auditor’s report:
“I mean, you know, to have an unelected individual who is a statutory office holder, making a decision on the release of a report like this and the timing like that, maybe that shouldn’t, that needs to be looked at. And maybe that’s something that the next Government of Australia should have a look at.”
In other words, shoot the messenger.
Now THAT’S good government!
356 [Labor run hospital]
Hey, JOM you imply the Libs could run hospitals. I think the collapse of the Mersey deal knocks that one on the head. Hospitals will be one of the first areas to improve under Labor after 12 years of Tory underfunding. Why do Tories claim to be good economic managers when they can’t even get one hospital in Tasmania to work?
ShowsOn @ 366
Grammaphone? Grammaphone! Modern rubbish. Nah, wax cylinders for Grandpa. Or piano rolls.
I saw Howard’s news conference late today. He looked very relaxed. Obviously he has made peace with the fact that he is going down. No nerves now. Can’t fix what is definitely broken, so no use getting uptight.
Just saw Howard on channel 9 news here in Sydney. He is saying that Rudd can not be believed when he says that he is an economic conservative.
Something that I haven’t seen before happened soon after the Rodent finished making that comment. His face turned to a frown like this
Poor Coconut, he was about to start crying. Priceless!
It seems Vaile would prefer the opposite – the report should be compiled by a partisan member of parliament, and that person should sit on reports instead of releasing them.
Is anyone surprised he would prefer such a system?
“He’s not heavy he’s my brother”
“Why bother, he’s in the gutter”
I know what I’m choosing
I have worked out Howard’s cunning plan. Yesterday was 12 days to go, today it is 8, Sat 4 so the election is really on Sunday. Only Liberal members are aware of this so they are all returned – winning each seat 1 – 0.
Budget surpluses will increase due to the fine imposed on everyone who did not vote
358 [Got a ‘new leadership’ kevin07 DVD in the mail..probably due to being in a marginal
now THATS electioneering
so will Howard respond and send out a 78 to play on the grammaphone ?]
Blacklight , truth is the Tories are engraving a stone tablet for you as we speak.
It is a very powerful way of campaigning by Labor though. First heard of the concept in the US where a byelection was won by an unfancied candidate by sending everybody a video of his ideas.
The final Morgan ph poll has actually been accurate on primaries at the last Vic, Qld and Fed elections. At the ‘04 Fed election, Morgan messed up with his pref allocation, predicting a Labor 2PP of 51%, but his primary was closest for both Labor and Coalition at that election.
That new ‘really Mr Howard’ ad is running on tele. Its good, believable, unlike that contrivived bs about the unions from the libs, the sky will fall in…
Ok, I’m probably the last person here to have seen this but mayby not so…
It’s a thingy about climate change (not dramatic, but quite good)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
Where’s Glen?
Here’s an article that references Australia having a nuclear power station in the 1950s:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/nuclear_energy_the_election_elephant_in_the_room.htm
What Morgan poll, Lord D?
Wonder if Captain Brough will tell us exactly where the Bribie Island nuclear power plant will go when he opens the Caboolture bypass on Sunday?
Crikey Whitey, I mean the final Morgan ph poll; it should be released the day before the election.
His Mum’s making sure he eats his tea, she’ll drop him in later, ShowsOn.
386 Glen was last seen blindfolded with 25 pins, the Liberal Party nuclear policy and a map.
Oh right, Lord D. I heard someone from Morgan on Newsradio earlier, suggesting that people start ‘thinking rationally’ in the last week.
So get with it, guys!
Just a thought. Do you think that our rants on this sight will form the basis of will’s phd, titled, ‘the crap people write’? Wonder who deserves an entire chapter.
Portland Bet has been hacked and it is quite funny to look at.
http://betelection.com/elections/
Looks like the odds for Labor are about to shorten a whole lot more.
The clock is running to see how long is takes for them to figure it out.
His Mum’s making sure he eats his tea, she’ll drop him in later, ShowsOn.
LOL!
LOL!
Does anyone keep track of the daily verdict?
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
It seems to be a pretty accurate gauge of the campaign I think.
Its lovely stuff that Portland bet, whoever visits would be slightly inclined to vote for Rudd
DLP,
Not that many people go to the Portlandbet site. Most just go to the frontpage at http://www.portlandbet.com
Still, that thing has been up there for a couple of hours at least, so I’m surprised they haven’t spotted it yet…
ShowsOn 382 – the power station was supposed to be built at Jervis Bay (yellow fish with pink and purple spots, anyone?). The site is now the car park at Murray’s Beach, near the entrance to the bay, and the bay is a marine national park, so they wouldn’t dare resurrect THAT proposal.
Rofl DLP – that is a classic
Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but Sportingbet is now at Labor $1.28/ Coalition $3.60.
Those are the widest odds I’ve seen there for a while…
Gary
The relaxed howard is no doubt the medication kicking in…
RE the Sydney commercial news….no mention at all of Abbots gaff which was disappointing, most news time allocated to that pillock who rushed the stage at the Howard speech. The libs have already converted the footage into an anti union ad cos he was from the teacher unions. Well done mate.
The Portland Bet hacking thing is funny to look at, but a bit scary really. Money changes hands on the site. Brings up the question of security and all that.
STIRLING EFFORTS
Ozymandias (waving to Son): How was your day at school, mate?
Son of Ozymandias grunts.
Ozy: So what’d you get up to?
SoO: Nothing much…
Ozymandias sighs, resigned to this most common of responses.
SoO: Oh, except Kevin Rudd came into our class.
Ozy: What?
SoO: Yeah, with about 40 other people.
Ozy: Cameras?
SoO: Heaps.
Ozy: So, what’d he talk about?
SoO: Oh you know, parliament and stuff.
Ozy: Wow.
SoO: He looks kind of different on TV.
Ozy: Different how?
SoO: He’s taller in real life.
Ozy: He’s not as tall as Peter Tinley. Was he there?
SoO: Who?
Ozy: A big, tall guy, dark hair, tanned face, looks like a soldier.
SoO: Dunno dad. There were lots of people there.
Wow.
Asanque @ 396
I love it.
Lets’s face Kevins odds can’t get any better but I love the anarchy of a good hack.
395 Jenny
One of the Libs has got a holiday place down there. He WANTS a nuke plant.
Say, LTEP,
I don’t think you’re a loser. You just need the right kind of help, that’s all! You want I should hook you up with Marvin The Paranoid Android?
You guys are peas in a pod. Maybe you could borrow his Gary Larsen “Monster Snorkel” for when you’re huddling, paralysed with fear beneath your doonah at night so that you can breathe better.
Guarantee if it had boobs your son would have noticed
Do you think Liz Prime (labor for Cowan)
will make it into the ministry so we will
have a Prime Minister and Minister Prime?
My favourite so far;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jEaBbO9Os&feature=PlayList&p=E2646E76131DA9DB&index=39
Especially when the Indonesians can point the finger at a number of senior Australian officers and their political masters who all appear to have a war crimes case to answer.
Add in that the fate of the Bali bombers, and our drug mules, Corby included, are also being decided in the next few months and I think it’ll be a long time before the coroner’s findings see the light of day again.
TofK@346
I was at the Zochling/Mad Monk debate. The Mad Monk most definitely uttered those words on the tape, and it was in the context that SerfChoices was a superior option for employment as compared to anything prior to SerfChoices. None of it looked like or joke, after all it’s Liberal Party policy. For some of us all of Liberal Party policy is a joke, in this case The Mad Monk was serious.
The moderator did ask questions, of both Hugh and The Mad Monk, then Hugh and Mad Monk asked a question of each other, and some time was then given to the floor which was muscled by the Tory Todgers, most of whom don’t understand what is meant by question.
The Mad Monk place particuler emphasis on a Liberal Party concept that poverty is self inflicted, I came away from that meeting that is firmly a plank of Liberal Policy which will be incoporated and implemented.
Dr Good @ 406
Maybe make her Ms Prime, Minister for Primary Industry assisting the Prime Minister
And now the Libs are creating b*llsh*t about the charter of budget “honesty”, saying the ALP has missed the deadline:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093475.htm
hmmm lets have a look at the charter:
SECT 29 Requests for costing of election commitments
(1) During the caretaker period for a general election:
(a) the Prime Minister may request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Government policies; and
(b) the Leader of the Opposition may, subject to subclause (4), request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Opposition policies.
(2) A request is to:
(a) be in writing; and
(b) outline fully the policy to be costed, giving relevant details; and
(c) state the purpose or intention of the policy.
(3) A request by the Prime Minister is to be given to the responsible Secretaries.
(4) A request by the Leader of the Opposition is to be given to the Prime Minister, who may then agree to refer it to the responsible Secretaries. The responsible Secretaries are not obliged or authorised to take any action in relation to the request unless the Prime Minister has referred the request to them.
(5) The Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition may, at any time, withdraw a request that he or she has made. A withdrawal by the Prime Minister is to be by notice in writing given to the responsible Secretaries. A withdrawal by the Leader of the Opposition is to be by notice in writing given to the Prime Minister, who is to notify the responsible Secretaries of the withdrawal.
Anyone see any mention of deadlines?
And don’t you love how the ALP has to give it to the PM? What a crock.
http://scaleplus.law.gov.au/html/pasteact/2/3115/0/PA000460.htm
Dr Good
Don’t forget Sub Prime Minister Costello.
Labor need to get the Abbot footage in an ad to make up for the poor media coverage…
To steal (and bastardise) a Monty Python classic – who do we declare the Minister of Funny Talks? The candidates are;
The Mad Monk.
The Idiot Skateboarder
The Rodent
When voting, consider which one do you believe crafted the most imaginative, but least plausible explanation for the phantom IR discussion. The judges decision will be final (unless you can convince me that I didn’t really say that!)…
The odds on Betfair right now are ALP 1.33 / LIB 3.85.
This means that Labor have as much chance as what Geelong had, and a better chance than Storm, winning their respective grand finals.
The reason LIB are still at 3.85 which converts to an adjusted probability of 25% (many bloggers believe their chances are much less) is because of the TRUSTWORTHY OF THE POLLS.
If you believe the polls are completely full proof, then a 33% gain on your investment for 8 days work is an outstanding investment.
The real question is – How much faith do you have in the polls?
Look, i don’t know if this has been mentioned, but they played the mad monk footage tonight on channel 9 news….
403 Crikey Whitey
Yes, I know that one of the Libs has been gunning for the idea of reviving a Jervis Bay nuclear power plant, but I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t have a show. The site they’re talking about is not only national park (as are the waters around it) but has also been designated as Aboriginal land, so they’d have to mount an NT-style invasion to get over that little hurdle. Mind you, I wouldn’t entirely put it past them. Another good reason to vote them out!
The guy who put $70,000 on labor stands to make a tidy $23,000 profit. If I had that amount lying around I’d put it on too..
They didn’t play it on 9 Adelaide unfortunately.
I just watch the new Labor ad on their website, all I can is that the guy in the ad is just my type! And I know he is my partner’s type to, so I better have my partner watch the ad, just to make sure he does vote Labor.
Yo Ho
Not in Sydney they didn’t. 7 and 9 both left it out. Which city are you in..?
Sorry all….i’m in Canberra. I thought i saw it on the Sydney edition (we get it before ours) but it was just on the local down here….the only people of interest that would have those in Eden-monaro
Although they did use it to bust Gary Humphries chops…
Although they did use it to bust Gary Humphries chops…
jenny
jervis bay is part of the ACT
another site mentioned is boydtown (near eden)
another 21 to find
hattip to arbie and steve re sites
LOL
Abbott claims the tape was edited to twist his words. Releases transcript of what he actually said. Transcript is exactly the same as what is on the tape!
Still he may have fooled a couple of 2 yo kids with this nonsense. Pity they’re not old enough to vote.
It’s a good ad, Kooyong Will.
Bernie Banton gravely ill as Hardy continue legal charade.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/bernie-banton-gravely-ill/2007/11/16/1194766911210.html
Sean I know somebody who had a spare $18k around and stands to make $6k.
That is the $64m question. How much faith can you have in the polls?
Let’s see what I’ve missed… hmmmm I think I’ve seen these before;
LTEP being very cautious, others upset about his pessimism
More on who’s the most attractive female pollie
Serfchoices debate
The Rodent getting caught lying and cheating again
Where will the nuclear plants go
The only thing I can intelligently add to this is to refer to the bulletin article
Mia Handshin – Sturt (Labor)
A favourite among political journalists, who, for some reason, bemoan the fact that political photos so are so often shot from the shoulders upwards, Mia is an Arts/Law graduate from Adelaide University, whose “ability to connect across generations has also been acknowledged, particularly when named an Ambassador for the International Year of Older Person’s.” Dirty old bastards.
Yes, those “above shoulder” shots really don’t do her justice!
Of course the polls are correct aren’t they Centre?
There’s no reason that the polls would just all of a sudden all be wrong in this election when they’ve been right in the past. Not 4 different polling companies over a period of over a year.
I still wouldn’t bet $18k though… when you gamble you always lose in the end.
Mad Monk video plays on ABC TV news Sydney. “Jim Middleton ” … been a dog of a week for the PM … ” Didn’t play Howard … “he didn’t say that …” re MM.
Love this analysis of The Age and The Oz done on Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-and-Sports/20071116-The-Age-v-The-Oz-very-different-election-coverage.html
Best line:
“An entertaining sidelight in all this is what might be called the Shana factor. This refers to Dennis Shanahan’s efforts in The Australian to put the most positive spin on Newspoll results for John Howard.”
432 [… been a dog of a week for the PM ]
Been a dog of a twelve year period since the PM got into office, did he mention that?
Crikey says that there are not many Labor posters in Lindsay. So I went to the Labor campaign office to organise for some to be put up (managed to talk sugar daddy around) outside our place. Also picked up some leaflets for our street which has not been leafleted by Labor since the campaign started. Hope everyone has a Rudd poster on their lawn!
Story on Blair vs Cornes coming up tonight on TT in Adelaide. Should be interesting. Not a lot of love lost there.
318
Burgey Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
“Now Mark Vaille is on radio saying the auditor general was trying to alter the election and that the caretaker provisions might be extended to public servants.
What a f*cking joke. The sooner he gets on his skateboard the better.
No wonder they’ve politicise dthe public service so much. The remaining public servants who are independent ge treated like that when they tell it like it is.”
My recollection is that it was Kennet trying to nobble The Vic Auditor General that started the tide that turned into a tsunami in 1999. I think in this case it’s the reef that turns a big wave into a murderous breaker
Abbott was shown on the ABC news here in Sydney though …….
Well LTEP, I must confess that I’m not a real polls expert although I am a betting expert. I have already backed Labor solidly three times averaging 1.87. It could be tempting to have one more go but I may sit.
OK let’s play “What the Libs need to do to win from here”.
Any takers?
How about “What the ALP would need to do to lose from here”
Hey, I didn’t say it was an easy game.
Derek
I tend to scan the commercial news for coverage cos thats what most of the swingers are watching – having watched Home and Away and before moving onto This Day Tonight, Bert Newton specials and American crime dramas…
Replace JHo with Jennifer Hawkins
We live in a safe Labor seat (Werriwa) but even here I am starting to see ALP posters going up. A local Chinese restaurant on Camden Valley Way has about 12 up on the front of their place on about every spare piece of grass surrounding the car park. I also saw heaps of flyers at the Post Office in West Hoxton of all places. I queried the postmaster about it when I was in there earlier this week and asked her about the “caretaker” conventions. I didn’t want her to get into trouble or anything. She told me she knew all about the caretaker conventions and said that they were an independant licensee so not directly AusPost, a private business having purchased a franchise. For them the caretaker conventions don’t apply. I smiled and said “good on you” as I left the PO
The ANAO report says nothing that has not been known to public servants struggling to retain the integrity of grants processes for the last few years. finally it is getting some attention. The report includes evidence of the egregious role of the prime Minister’s office. This is reason enough for a change of government.
Rudd and the media or why Rove and not Insiders?
http://ozvotes.blogspot.com/2007/11/rudd-vs-media.html
TT report on Nicole Cornes VERY positive. Blair has been very vocal in her attacks on Cornes so it was very brave to go mano-a-mano. Blair was asked for a summary after of Cornes and was glowing. Described Cornes’s performance as “flawless”. Could get her over the line. TT would be a graet demographic for swinging voters and Blair is very respected. Might vote for her after all!
Taxi-driver, Hamed, took me past Michael Keenan’s office on very busy Wanneroo Road last night, and the Missos were out picketing, reminding peak hour drivers that Keenan voted to undermine their rights at work. Hamed is voting Labor. He doesn’t know any Iraqi people who would consider anything else. .
I would just like to clarify a couple of misconceptions that the polls experts have in relation to the betting.
- The accuracy of the betting market is absolutely not dependant on the amount of money that is actually bet.
- It is most definitely practical to have a situation where Labor may be short priced favourites to win the election outright but not be favourites in the most number of seats.
- Both the main election betting and the individual seats betting are equally accurate.
Sean @ 441
Ar, This Day Tonight – trouble is, you can’t get TVs with valves these days … more’s the pity.
Gippslander:
Heard a betting bloke on wireless today say McGauran’s seat of Gippsland was in play. An word? He’s a prize dork, as you probably know.
very interesting Diogenes.
Earlier in the day she was good on 5AA? Someone wrote about it here I think.
Mark Vaile was on the News today already threatening retribution to the head of the National audit office for releasing the regional grants report in the middle of an election. Presumably he’s so immersed in the culture of intimidation and control that the Govt has imposed on the public service that he seems unaware that what he is saying is disturbing. As rammed home at the AWB enquiry, the guy really is thick as a brick.
Centre, on your second point I can back that up, since I saw on some website that Labor has good odds to win Stirling even though almost 75% of the money bet on it has been for the Coalition to win. Obviously the betting agencies know something the betters don’t.
Sean, Vaile’s comments were a disgrace – it is equivalent to someone criticising the RBA for rasingin rates in the eleciton period.
And the fact Howard hasn’t disciplined him is an equal disgrace. A sham government, and corrupt party that deserves to go a decade without getting close to being back in power of even a p*ssy little local council.
450 Grog- The Today Tonight piece was about the 5AA interview but will obviously have more impact because of the Blair endorsement. “Oh the times, they are a-changin.”
I know I keep bangin on about this point but the Morgan Poll keeps up its pretence about Soft ALP voters, currently 21% of all electors feel Australia is heading in the right direction according to Morgan and are going to vote Labor (up 2% from last time). This is a soft vote according to Morgan.
My question to Morgan, given that this “Soft Vote” has not appeared to shift for over 12 months (or perhaps firm) and presumably will stay all the same up to and including the election, when Labor wins convincingly will they still be considered “Soft ALP voters”?
Some commentators may relabel these people as “Kev’s Aspirationals”.
My main contention is that these voters are not Soft ALP but rather determined to vote for a change and consider this part of the reason that Australia is heading in the right direction or alternatively feel Australia is going okay and will continue on this trajectory (perhaps at a greater rate) under Labor.
Morgan seems to be painting itself into a corner once again from which it will be seriously criticised after the election.
I’m just an occasional poster, but a very frequent lurker. I’m in Paris now and as good as that is, I’m really p***ed I’m missing this election. I’ve even set my VCR at home to record the ABC coverage, so when I return in December I can watch it all in real time after the event. A bit pathetic, I know, but I can’t help it. All I want to see is lots and lots of Ministers losing their seats and Howard looking bewildered and befuddled as he concedes. It’s not a lot to ask.
The Vaile thing is disgusting and it shows how stupid he is.
Pork barreling and mad monk IR stories on staeline now
Mathematically LTEP, it means that Labor have a greater chance of winning seats that Liberal are favourites in whereas Liberal have a less chance of winning seats that Labor are favourites in, OVERALL.
This undeniable fact can be proven with mathematical examples.
Excellent, Aristotle. Thanks.
AnthonyL, I guess the soft ALP voters are the ones not sure whether they’ll re-elect them in 2010.
Headline on The Oz site:
Vaile suggests report bias
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769982-601,00.html
Well I guess they are the experts on it.
Finetuning the senate vote.
http://balneus.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/refining-your-senate-vote/
classic steve
Appologies if this has been posted previously but the RPP scandall is just getting worse for the Government – http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093520.htm?section=justin
I guess as the 1200 pages is being read closely by the media – more examples are emerging.
I thought you might also like to read what David “I love the liberal party” Speers has to say on his blog:- “Technically the Coalition can still win.
Coalition strategists are hopeful they can sandbag enough marginal seats to cling on.
But the signs all point to a change of government on the 24th.”
This is a big statement from him!
“Labor’s George Newhouse cites legal proof he is a valid candidate for Wentworth.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/im-in-the-clear
newhouse/2007/11/16/1194766953417.html
Try again.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/im-in-the-clear-newhouse/2007/11/16/1194766953417.html
Ah, “technically”. I guess next will be “theoretically”
Nah, more like Semaphore Flags
Along with Stone Tablets.
GB, It’s still not a good look. I don’t doubt he is “in the clear”, but he ain’t exactly Caesar’s wife on the issue.
449
Derek Corbett Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Sean @ 441
….
Gippslander:
Heard a betting bloke on wireless today say McGauran’s seat of Gippsland was in play. An word? He’s a prize dork, as you probably know.
Yes, derek. I’ve been wondering for weeks why people haven’t picked up on this.
2004 was a doubly bad year for the ALP in Gippsland. The Forestry debacle cost a lot of votes, and internal party strife in the Latrobe Valley lost more. Both these features are absent this year. Our candidate is a very presentable former mayor of Bairnsdale, while McGauran must have the lowest personal vote of any Nationals candidate. As well as being in the less inteligent part of the Parliament, he’s an absentee landlord, like his brother, who betrayed the Nats.
If there is a swing in Vic, I’d expect it to be higher in Gippsland.
BTW if you wanted a Nuclear power plant in Vic, the Gippsland lakes or the 90 mile beach would be the obvious place to put it!
John Howard on the RPP scandal:
“Can I just remind all of you that on Saturday week bureaucrats aren’t running for re-election, politicians are – we are accountable.”
___
You got that right.
After all this stuff with his nomination, I don’t think Newhouse will win Wentworth
However, if seats like Gippsland, Dawson and North Sydney are in play (as I have read at various times on this blog today), the ALP will not need Wentworth.
Why do I still think that we’re going to see another Tampa/terrorist attack/Rudd using racist slurs/nuclear holocaust/Rudd suffering from spontaneous combustion so that the ALP will lose?
I have to convince myself…….
We might actually win
I don’t understand why anyone reports on Morgan.. it seriously is a joke
Oh Isabella, you’re an idiot. Keep posting please. I laugh myself silly everytime I read your vitriolic claptrap. It’ll be all the more hilarious on November 25 when your man is GONESKI!!!
470- accountable is not a word that can be applied to Ratboy – or any of his cabinet.
Polls for the final week
Newspoll Monday?
Nielsen Thursday?
Galaxy?
All of them doing releasing one on Friday night?
LaborVoter @ 473
I agree, Morgan’s normal phone polls is usually off and so is f2f polling. Put the 2 together and it is a joke.
What today has proved is that Vaile is a complete moron.
Funneist was that Howard had to stand behind both Vaile and Abbott. I can imagine Howard coming home tonite and Janet finding him in a foetal position at the doorstep….
and it makes me smile.
Sniffing the wind, here are some potential worries, in big picture terms:
Things have gone so badly, so spectacularly, for the Coalition this week that the landscape suddenly looks utterly different to the way it has looked for weeks, even months.
Virtually all media are now starting to suggest that it’s game over. The old oft-repeated line that “you can never write Howard off” is either being dropped, or its reiteration is so mechanical as to be implausible.
So really, for the very first time, voter-land is receiving an all-pervasive message – Howard really is a goner this time.
Now that may simply feed into the herd mentality and confirm the Coalition’s fate, but is there a chance – however slight – that the undecided will say in very large numbers “don’t take us for granted, we want to be part of the process, he is the devil we know, we will confound the now conventional wisdom”?
Does anybody know why Galaxy has been so quiet
Newspoll usually releases the day of the poll. And has once or twice been really accurate.
Not sure Stephen. Are Galaxy only once a fortnight?
@479
An online poll of over 3400 ppl in todays age, revealed that a staggering 98% had already decided on who they were voting for….
Now that number of people is the usual number of respondents to their continuing polls.
For what it’s worth.
“And has once or twice been really accurate.”
Bet they won’t use that line in their marketing, Gerr!
Galaxy is the most likely to come up with the long dreaded 52-48…
whoops.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22770315-5005361,00.html
“Does anybody know why Galaxy has been so quiet” They haven’t been able to get the poll result they want I would say.
Ok earlier I aksed what would the ALP have to not win from here. Coudln’t get any takers, so I’ll give it a go.
A big hole in their costings (and a real hole, not a Peter-smirking-oops-they’ve-done-it-again-hole). It’s been my biggest fear.
And umm that’s it.
And by the by, I love how Kevin Reynolds has a big dirt file on Rudd and Gillard that he will release AFTER the election.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22769357-948,00.html
Since there’s been a few mentions of North Sydney today, I thought I’d post this snippet. A Greens volunteer dropped around this afternoon with leaflets for weekend letterboxing. She said she had been on prepoll duty in the electorate, and that “things are going very well… ESPECIALLY for Labor”.
Not sure how much to read into this, but it seems to fit with what others have said. I think we may have a contest here. As others have pointed out, North Sydney voters tend to be well-educated and like to think for themselves.
The seat has previously elected independents at both state and federal level.
Sean @ 485
I wouldn’t be so sure. They always seem to have a smaller gap on their primary votes but give less of the preferences to the Coalition.
Surely to god they can’t stuff the costings.
They have had too long to work on it.
When are the costings released?
479 Flash (Let me do a “Rudd” here) – did that scenario play out in 1996? No. Why should it now? Good question.
If Labor can’t beat this bunch of incompetent liars and bufoons at this election they never will.
I wonder if Heavy Kevvie is thinking that by threatening to release it AFTER the poll that Rudd will speed up the revocation of the ABCC.
Oh and CH 9 News EVERY ad break is a positive ALP ad concentrating on Stirling and Cowan. Not a lib ad to be seen.
North Sydney is the ULTIMATE doctors’ wives seat. And Bailey is a big climate change believer – and it dovetails nicely into his weatherman persona.
If we can keep talking about Climate Change and Workchoices then Hockey will continue to squirm.
Voters don’t swing against the tide.
If the polls are still 54-55 on Tuesday it will be a rout (barring that unforseen occurrance which everyone think may happen but no one can actually say what it could be)
I touted nuclear war within Iran earlier – and the resultant imposition of martial law.
Anyone got a more likely one?
493 adrian – you got it in one.
@497
Mass hypnosis by Aliens as happened in 2004, 2001, 1998 and 1996.
Gary Bruce.. The simple answer is that the economy is in far better shape now than in 1996.
Grog
Can’t think of anything short of Rudd being caught naked with a nun.
I’m at the point now where I’ll be a tad disappointed if its not a massacre – ministers falling like nine pins, evacuations from the wentworth hotel rooftop, Dolly on the floor throwing a tantrum, the smirk finally letting go and felling the rodent with a head butt…..carnage, high drama, the young libs running for their lives, shanaghan carried off by the mob..
I’m sure its not too much to hope for…
Actually Rudd could get real cocky and decide to see if he can do a 93 in reverse.
So he’ll announce he’s going to put a GST on food – but only birthday cakes, and then he’s going to get Willesee out of retirement and dare him to ask him questions about it.
What would it take for Labor to lose?
Quite possibly, if Kevin Rudd did a Howard Dead, and showed a hitherto-unseen side of his personality. As in, the pressure got to him, and he had a Howard Dean style moment, which could unnerve a lot of swinging voters.
But that seems very unlikely. His level of self-control seems phenomenal and, given the way this week has gone, he can surely begin to relax a little. (Not appearing on Insiders might be part of that strategy, unless he just wants to go to church).
Flash… Howard’s already tried the “wake up voters” thing with his ‘annihilation’ speech earlier this year. It didn’t work then… it’s wishful thinking to think people don’t already know that if they vote Labor then Howard will be gone.
FLash:
“but is there a chance – however slight – that the undecided will say in very large numbers “don’t take us for granted, we want to be part of the process,”
For this to happen, the undecided would have to also feel as though the ALP (meaning Rudd) has taken them for granted. And let’s be honest, there is no evidence that that feeling exists.
Liz Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Your forgiving, my wife wants to see tears.
@503
Imagine Rudd doing a full blown Howard Dean….That would be HILARIOUS!
507 Gerr – I’m betting Mandarin would be involved!
F*ck that
I want to see Howard and Janet’s smouldering corpses on the lawn outside the bunker before they get crushed by a soviet tank…..
Is it too much to ask!??!?!?!
LTEP @ 23
“I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence.”
Isn’t “will just get over the line” the same thing as winning? Also what is the “objective evidence” of this? I can’t find any objective evidence of this – certainly not the polls nor even in the more conservative individual seat betting which on average are predicting that Labor will win around 77-79 seats.
LTEP for once I’d really like it if you can offer objective evidence of what you assert. To date you haven’t done this because that evidence simply doesn’t exist.
Don’t know if it has been mentioned:
Tomorrow Rudd will in South Australia at the Prospect Town Hall at 12:30.
Howard CAN NOT WIN.
Why are we even talking about it? The winning on 48-49% TPP is crap it will not happen.
In fact Rudd can win with 49% TPP.
Get used to it – we will at last have a PM in the Lodge.
@508 Yes Grog
Youve just raised that comedy sketch to a sublime level…LOL
A couple of the Sky News reporters were comparing the Howard and Rudd travelling circusses and they made the point that Rudd is travelling at more than twice the speed of Howard – twice as many shopping mall walk-throughs, twice as many media events, twice as much travelling..
The toll must be tremendous. I have heard a couple of radio interviews with Rudd when he sounded (perhaps in my paranoid mind) possibly close to cracking in some way. What would that look like? Supposedly he has a fearsome temper.
A small number might go back to the libs in sympathy or fearing too big a labor majority BUT the bulk of people barely tune into politcs and arent really on top of what the polls are saying re strong favouritism- over a third still think the coalition will win. I’ve got lots of (smart) friends who know what the polls are saying and still think Howard will pull it off.
He doesn’t have evidence, he is just a pessimist who thinks he will be an eternal loser.
“503
Flash Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
What would it take for Labor to lose?
Quite possibly, if Kevin Rudd did a Howard Dead, and …”
What a confusing, yet attractive, slip of the keyboard there, Flash.
Gippslander @ 470
Thks for that. What I was getting at is that it appears the betting market has changed. Didn’t quite hear who it was but he said something like … “didn’t think it was worthwhile putting it up … but … change … ” Someone from one of the betting companies, I’d guess. (I don’t bet, don’t understand how it works and don’t have internet banking – too scary).
Grew up in Bairnsdale, BTW, before that Nowa Nowa, Swifts Creek. I just hope the Dork gets done … people in that area deserve a true representative, not an absent landlord.
My friend who knows Therese Rein says that Rudd leaves before dawn and gets home after dark everyday…he’s got incredible energy apparently.
Ok ruawke – I’ll stop the science fiction.
Anyone care to take a run at Costello’s shadow cabinet?
This is a very high skill game, as you:
a) Must assume Costello is elected leader; and
b) Need to think who will be able to hold their seat…
@499 Gerr – Brilliant!
Indeed VBoOTW.
But wouldn’t that rather change the complexion of the final week’s campaigning?
A state funeral. A rejuvenated Costello. Treasurer Alexander Downer.
I am not sure if anyone has reported this, but someone has put a labor add into the betting site Portland bet. http://betelection.com/elections/. Have a look!
I don’t want to see Howard bewildered, or in tears. I’d just like to see him admit that Australians reject his vision. That’s be enough for me. (But I am so Big Kev excited and it’s still another week away – Xmas will be Nov 24th this year!)
ruawake @ 512
Can you back this up?
Those who expect Howard to blub or sulk or in any way behave badly on election night are underestimating him. He will make a gracious and statesmanlike concession speech. I have no such confidence in Costello, Abbott or Downer.
moo
Others mentioned receiving a Kevin 07 DVD. I live in Sturt & received a personally addressed copy in yesterday’s mail, so they’re definitely going all out here.
On the morgan poll – we like to laugh about them, but on the ABC calculator it gives the ALP 101 seats, and didn’t the newspoll state by state breakdown deliver the same?
Dolly downer will be FM
Turnbull could be treasurer,
Bishop will stay education
Abbot will be taken from this place to a place of execution where he will be hung by the neck until he is dead, May god have mercy on his soul…by the young liberals
Kiwipundit you obviously didn’t read what I said closely.
“I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence.”
You say: “Isn’t “will just get over the line” the same thing as winning?”
Well yes… but that doesn’t mean the Libs are ‘bound to win’. It means there’s a possibility it could happen, no matter how slim. The phrase ‘bound to win’ means that there’s a high probability of it happening which I’ve never meant to say.
What I said was some stage that I suspected that the Libs would just get over the line. Is this possible? Yes. Is it probable? No.
Do I need objective evidence to have a suspicion? No. Suspicions can be based solely on instinct etc. Note I didn’t say I believe this will happen. I said that at some stage I suspected they would just get over the line. I’m not a firm believer in the enlightenment type of thinking that rationality, based solely on objective data, must always take place over hunches or other types of deductive logic.
At the moment, of course like anyone else I think it’s not going to happen. However, I won’t be completely surprised if it does. In the end people will finally make up their minds when they vote and regardless of what polls say anything can happen in the end. There’s always exceptions to cases and there’s nothing to say this year can’t be the exception. Again… it’s possible but not probable.
To all those who think these comments are all a bit vitriolic and OTT. Look, after eleven years of these pillacks we NEED this stuff.
I hope the Labor Party wins but you guys – come on! Some of you are predicting Labor to win 80 – 90 seats. How? The bookies are most likely right and they have Labor just scraping in with about 75 seats. By the way I had a horrible dream in late October that Labor lost with 67 seats! I hope that wasn’t a psychic prediction.
Not a frequent poster, but I have a question for the assembled masses: worst minister over the last 11 and a half years.
Having worked with a few of them, I would have said McGauran up until a few months ago (he really is very stupid). But at least he knew his limitations. By a nose from Vaille (”stay brave and true”), and Patterson (another one in the smaller IQ pile).
Now my money’s on Andrews. Nasty piece of work and incompetent too – you can usually forgive one of those traits, but not both.
Oh, and has the press been running with the story over there that Australia has been named the world’s worst polluters in a new report?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/nov/16/pollution
radio 5AA just ran a replay of the Blair/Cornes interview from 7 30 till 8 pm.
Dan… there’s a horde.
Burn Down The Forests Tuckey
Kerosene Bath Bronnie Bishop
Bed shares Santoro
I actually didn’t mind Vanstone but I’m sure she’d be right up there.
Adam is correct. Howard won’t buckle on the night though he might be a screaming mess in the privacy of his own home. He’ll make a gracious speech about how we’re all Australians despite our political differences, etc. I also expect Rudd to keep his head and not brag or stick the knife in, etc.
Hopefully they “May” put up a downloadable or at least a streamable podcast in the next day or so.
Paul @ 538 – I think you’re spot on. They’re both too professional for tears or overt triumphalism on the night.
Behind the scenes, however, who knows?
Stephen Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
ruawake @ 512
Can you back this up?
Yes.
I wonder if the Liberal Function where the PM will be will be a sparse affair like the WA LIberal Party one was during the 2005 State Election. Poor old Colin Barnett spoke to an almost empty room.
OK LTEP – I’ve misread what you said @ 23. You have been honest and have said that your belief that the Libs will “just get over the line” is not going off (ie not based on) any objective evidence.
Then why make such a statement on a psephology site? Isn’t psephology supposed to be about objective evidence? If you can’t point to any polls (public or internal) or betting odds to support your point – and this includes not just predictions that the Coalition will squeak in but also predictions made by those who say that Labor will win over 100 seats.
I want someone to have a camera following Abbott all day on the 24th – I dare say we won’t be seeing a great deal of “class”
Frank,
I don’t reckon so.
To his followers, Howard will still be seen as someone who led the libs from the depths of losing in 93 to 11 years in govt.
From a purely party point of view, they will likely see that as a fair legacy. And they would most likely be right.
526 Its probably the only gracious thing he will have done in the last 10 years then. Better late than never??
“526
Adam Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Those who expect Howard to blub or sulk or in any way behave badly on election night are underestimating him. He will make a gracious and statesmanlike concession speech. I have no such confidence in Costello, Abbott or Downer.”
Perhaps. Perhaps. Yet even if he does, he’ll do it in that whiny, narky voice of his that from anyone else would be considered a sign of profound gracelessness and pettiness.
Frankly I couldn’t care less whether he cries or not. But given that virtually every rat cunning move he’s made over the past three decades has been to the greater glory of John Winston Howard and he alone, I can take comfort in knowing that he will be absolutely shattered, and if he loses his seat – which I now expect will happen – he may never get over it.
Which is nice.
537 LTEP
Vanstone was hilearious (and I’m being genuine there) – she had a great (filthy) sense of humour, and could hold an audience. It’s amazing how you don’t know what you’ve lost until it’s gone…
Sentimentality aside, I’d probably put Nelson on that list – I didn’t think we could get a worse education minister until…
It is a pseph site, where you can discuss the veracity of polling and whether you think the actual polling results will play out on the day. All of this involves a certain degree of guess work and hunches. I always make my statements on the proviso that the polls suggest a comfortable Labor victory on the face of it and that we’ll only know for sure on 24 November. At least I recall putting that proviso in on most occasions.
If someone asks for an opinion on the possibility of a Coalition win, I give it. Possible, based on the polls it seems improbable but it can’t be ruled out. Then you can go and try and find evidence in the polling for how it might tight out wrong. For instance Howard’s approval ratings are still relatively high for a long-serving PM. It’s just that Rudd’s are higher. Now could this be evidence that this is a ‘buyers’ election’? It coud be… this means if Rudd were to signifcantly drop in popularity it’s possible the ALP’s primary could also drop.
I mean nothing sinister in my predictions. I just find it much more interesting to investigate how it could all go wrong rather than join everyone else in sitting back and expecting the best.
My last sentence @ 543 was unclear. It should’ve said:
In a psephology site we should at least point to polls (public or internal) or betting odds to support the point we wish to make – and this includes not just predictions that the Coalition will squeak in but also predictions made by those who say that Labor will win over 100 seats.
kiwipundit – this site is 97% opinion. (though I can’t objectively verify that figure).
Rudd campaigning in Mayo a week out? This is serious.
Grog
thats your opinion
where’s the poll to support it
Kiwi Pundit,
A uniform swing of 9% would deliver 101 seat to Labor. An uneven swing but in some cases of over 10% in hitherto safe Liberal seats with strong local issues, like Warringah, say, over perceived lack of funding for Brookvale Oval by Abbott; in Wenworth over the pulp mill in Tasmania; in Bennelong because of a strong opposition candidate and perception that the incumbent will bail out the week after the election, etc etc. is also likely to deliver over 100 seats.
The above scenario is unlikely but not entirely improbable, and indeed more credible on the available evidence, both empirical and anecdotal, than a LNP victory, which the PM and Donwer are retailing.
What’s with all this talk of Gippsland today? Fail to see anything here to get excited about.
http://vic.betelection.com/
549 LTEP – mate, stop worrying about what these people say. You’ve made it pretty clear that you want labor to win, but that you’re worried they won’t.
What’s wrong with that everyone? LTEP may well deal with it, if it comes to pass, better than we do given that we’re all pretty confident at the moment.
Jeez, just coz the fella has a contrary view about the way things might turn out he cops a bollocking. I’d hoped we’d be a bit better than that. It smacks of Vaille bagging the auitor coz he says something he doesn’t want to hear.
The bloke’s entitled to an opinion, is all I’m saying.
FWIW I think 85 ALP, 63 Satan and 2 Ind.
Luke at 533. The bookies odds do convert to a Labor victory of more than 80 seats. Feel free to read my previous comments on this thread if you would like to inform yourself further.
I vote John Cobb for worst Minister. His minder’s just about ate their livers every time he opened his mouth in public.
gusface – sorry it was from internal polling.
And what’s more, if we just limited ourselves to poll results/ discussions because this is a pseph site, then three-quarters of the pages here would be deleted, eg. all those that dealt with the launches and caused the site to melt down.
Any idea who will be on LL tonight? Please God, not Kroger.
I think six weeks is toooo long, you’ve all finally cracked and probably should get some sleep.
What’s happened to our favourite Tories?
Who’s John Cobb? HaHa
To Voter Boy Over the Water, you were getting some inside info from a Lib last week and you declared you wouldn’t contact him again until this week. Have you? And do you want to share it?
jJhn Cobb was Mal Brough’s bitch
#497
Hyacinth puts her foot down, not leaving K house. It’s martial law or it’s dear John and marital hell.
Seriously, JWH would cling to any feeble excuse to give him the illusion of power for a little longer. I can visualise the “night” in question, “we won’t concede until all the postal votes are counted in 2 weeks time…”
(I personally want to burn 500 DVDs of his concession speech and hand them out free on street corners.)
Burgey,
Didn’t you get the memo? Apparently it’s pick on LTEP day.
“I want to see these bastards curled up in a corner, one hand clutching their hair, the other with the thumb in the mouth. Whimpering.”
Text message from my wife in Victoria. I think she wants Howard gone. (She would love this site but we live in a small country town – no internet. Excuse the indulgence).
557 Damien J
Cobby was another one of my Ministers for a bit – he certainly falls into the incompetent pile – I’ll never forgot his speech at the national press club on muslim integration. It started with something like “I grew up in country New South Wales and I was a bit of a racist hooligan when I was a kid…” and then he mispronounced “hijab” about 20 times.
Rudd campaigning in Mayo a week out? This is serious.]
Prospect is in the seat of Adelaide (just).
LOL…..I can’t help but feel a kind of powerful fraternity with these kind of sentiments. Bad I know.
My vote for worst minister of the whole Howard government: De-Anne Kelly. I met her once and she was perfectly nice, but obviously couldn’t run a cake stall at a CWA fete. Not many ministers get to make a stuff-up which three full years later comes back to turn a government defeat into a rout. Of course she’s not the nastiest minister of the Howard government. That title goes to Peter Reith by a short head from Abbott and Tuckey.
563
StanS Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
To Voter Boy Over the Water, you were getting some inside info from a Lib last week and you declared you wouldn’t contact him again until this week. Have you? And do you want to share it?”
I had vowed to wait until next Thursday. But I’m calling now…
VBOTW,Thanks, you are a champion.
I think Kevin Andrews would be in the mix as well.
Can I point out that the AdelaideNow webpage doesn’t have a single reference to Nicole Cornes’ interview on 5AA.
If she made a gaffe of some sort you can sure they would have a MP3 extract ready for download.
Aah yes, Prospect is not Prospect Hill. I should check my facts a bit better. BTW I never said Prospect was in Mayo. I didn’t say that.
Iemma might finally get to use that water cannon – to flush the Howards out of Kirribilli
497 Rates Analyst,
As long as Pakistan is a viable problem for Washington, Bush won’t move on Iran. He might WANT to, but he won’t. He can’t afford more than one crisis at a time. Pakistan was rather unkind to Bush, they didn’t ask his permission before declaring martial law
. In that respect, they have really thrown a spanner into the works and I bet that Bush is spitting bricks 
571 Adam, that is a huge task picking the worst Minister from such a large and incompetent field of candidates. Overall as a ministry I’m sure they would be the worst team for decades. The longer the Government has been in power the poorer the quality. Symptomatic of the Howard ,Costello leadership fiasco but on a grander scale.
What’s missing from the campaign is the wierdness of the US politcal scene, where you can get quotes like this:
“There’s an existential threat to this country. And if you can’t at least face up to it, I don’t think you can lead this country.”
– Rudy Giuliani
You know that axis of evil – Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Godot
571 Adam
How could I forget Reith? That interview with Kerry O’Brien towards the end of the wharfies strike when he knew he’d been beaten, three day growth, slurring his words, rambling dementedly. Classic stuff.
ltep
I have disagreed with ALL of your posts for months. You are just F.O.S ! Totally.
It gives me immense enjoyment to see as we get closer to 24 November that of all the verbage you post you are being shown to be “miss guided”
cordially,
Luke @ 533:
Portlandbet has had Labor winning for months. At the moment they are reporting 79/69/2 [ http://betelection.com/elections/?p=68 ]
I think it’s a myth about the punters always being right – a myth that the bookies promote. Supposedly the insiders who know everything about all the seats including internal polling and local sentiment are the only people who bet. Of course they’re not. Mug punters do bet, and they bet on the basis of the polls and of daily events. There’s probably been a bit of cash against the rodent on the basis of Tony Abbott’s workchoices “air-quotes” this week. So the sentiment tends to follow the polls anyway. There is also an opportunity to attempt to manipulate sentiment by betting against the trend. There has been some suggestion that the Liberals may have spent a bit of their advertising money to stem the flow on the betting and so alter the perception of a rout. On top of this, I think the (perfectly legal) “insider trading” is much less scientific than it’s made out to be, and that even hardened professionals are finding it difficult to believe that the the rodent could be on the way out. For example, Maxine is much more popular in Bennelong than the odds suggest.
Re 522,
Flash Says:
Another we don’t want this moment in the next 8 days. QE2 passing. While it wouldn’t legally affect the campaign (Charles takes over immediately and the coronation just happens when they can get it together), it would sure make things mighty strange. Anyone born after WW2 ended doesn’t know any other person in that position …….
are we all agreed Neilson is the best poll going?
Galaxy is missing in action, Newspoll is tainted by other things, Morgan overstates the ALP.
OK? are you with me? if so, there have been a few posts today about how AC Neilson has overstated the Libs position by about 2 points at every election from 1998.
My question is this…
What if AC Neilson error was in overestimating the leading party, whichever that party is!!!
What if the real picture on Mon-Wed this week was
ALP – 52
LNP – 48
With one and half weeks to go??? Anyone spooked? Scared? Huh, Huh anyone?
I wonder how different the world would be today had Gore become president as he rightfully should have instead of that useless idiotic moron.
If I was American I would be voting for Edwards president and Obama VP.
Andrews will bear a very heavy responsibility for the defeat of the Howard government. He was largely responsible for the extreme and unfair workplace laws, and for the failure to sell them effectively. Then he wasted months with the Haneef affair, a botch entirely of his own making, during which time the government was unable to sell whatever positive message it may have had. Those were the months when the election was lost.
579 There’s a few thousand Tories hanging around ‘waiting for Godot’. Haven’t seen him have you? He’s got a week to arrive!
He is just expressing pessimism people!
I keep my pessimism to myself, and post the positive thoughts.
LTEP @ 549, I didn’t say there was anything sinister in your predictions. I know it is POSSIBLE that the Coalition could squeak in with say 47% of the TPP, but that is not very likely. Equally it is POSSIBLE that the Coalition could be left with only 50 seats after the election, but again this is not very likely either.
It’s interesting that you mention the non-objective factors such as some sense or intuition of what the public mood is. To me the big difference between this election and 2004 or even 1998 is that through his body language and voice, as caught on the TV cameras, John Howard does not seem to be as half as confident as he was in past elections leading the Coalition. Sure John Howard has come from behind in the past to win elections such as in 2004 – but then he was helped by Labor being led by an inept campaigner such as Mark Latham (who apart from a period in March 2004) was always trailing Howard in the Preferred PM ratings. This time he is being opposed by a risk averse play it safe Labor leader such as Rudd, who projects a goody-two shoes image but is actually very disciplined and dare I say calculating.
I did take some interest in the 2004 election (I read the blogs but never actually posted any replies) – but that was short-lived. Less than half-way through the 2004 election campaign – despite Newspoll showing Labor slightly ahead in the TPP I was convinced the Coalition would win again. Why? Well not just my “gut-instinct” but also the fact that Labor was well behind the Coalition in the primary vote in all the polls, Latham was consistently trailing Howard as preferred prime Minister, polls which asked the “who will win the election” question had the Coalition as the clear favourite, and all the betting markets had the Coalition as the favourite.
Well none of these factors which existed in 2004 (or 2001 or even 1998) is the case now, which to me makes it at least 70% (rather than less than 50%) likely that Labor will win the election.
Liberals for nastiness, Nats for stupidity. Who can forget John Anderrson, Minister for Qantas? His successor’s biggest claim to fame is is ability to ride a skateboard. It’s like a waking nightmare.
Or Princes William or Harry – the “Diana” Factor will play much bigger than Betty Windsor.
#588
Thats one explanation.
I hold another view
ok – here’s something I fail to comprehend. Assuming the libs get beaten, who’s going to be their leader? Everyone says PC, but it seems to me that he’ll forever be tainted by association with JWH, and known as the man who could have been king, but failed to sieze the moment. Where does that leave the Libs for the next 6 years? In the political wilderness I assume….
Adam Says: “He was largely responsible for the extreme and unfair workplace laws, and for the failure to sell them effectively.”
Adam, it’s not his fault; you just can’t dress up the stinking smelly turd that is workchoices.
With one and half weeks to go??? Anyone spooked? Scared? Huh, Huh anyone
Well obviously you are
Vaile now on Sky
If the Lib Ministers were so incompetent what does that say about their Labor shadows? Let’s face it if it wasn’t for Work Choices Labor would probably be struggling. The idea that the Libs are all like Sergeart Schultz and Labor are Hogan’s Heroes is exactly the sort of thinking that has kept Labor out of power for so long.
586 I think Andrews should be made Opposition Leader after the election in recognition of the time and effort that he put in to getting them there.
There has been a few polls noticeably absent recently. I think the only reason is that they can’t believe their own results. Maybe there is a lot of positive ALP polls out there that pollsters are too afraid to release?
Centre @ 585
“If I was American I would be voting for Edwards president and Obama VP.”
Agree, but I don’t like Clinton
470 Gippslander. It was Lasseters.
Frank Calabrese/mad cow/others
EUREKA!
Telstra have checked out my cable street thing for broadband! Free for me, for their stuff ups.
Will install Friday 23!!!!
Yaaaay!
471… the subtext was… they must not know the stuff to make me accountable.
Rudd giving Downer the bird.
Great news, just in time for the great routing
And it proves how Howard has stuffed up the Privatisation of Telstra to boot.
I don’t think Andrews even TRIED selling WorkChoices.
In the 1980s Keating explained why having lower tariffs would be better than having higher tariffs, and why deregulating the financial sector would help the economy grow.
The entire Howard government didn’t do ANY hard work explaining WHY WorkChoices would be better than the enterprise bargaining system.
582 Sir Roger
The books have gone from $3.15-$3.30 the coallition to $3.50-$3.60 in the last 24 hours. Who knows whether this was Nielsen, Abbott or rural rorts, but it’s a bit of a shift.
Interestingly, as far as individual seats go, Centrebet has Page a dead heat now (lots of money for the ALP there), and money in Petrie against Gambaro. Also a bit of dosh on the ALP in Longman, and a little against Broadbent and Macarthur. Not many other significant moves on Centrebet or Portland, as far as I can tell (Gippsland still has McGauran at $1.13, so very much favourite).
Interesting post Sir Roger. Just what is it that you expect from the betting market exactly? I’m interested to know!
Tell me about it. My broadband internet choices are:
Bigpond cable
Bigpond cable
Bigpond cable
It’s as if I don’t live in a capitalist country.
Vaile on Sky News Agenda – getting an oh so soft and cushy run on the RPP. John Gatfield as an interviewer is quite pathetic.
“Vaile now on Sky”
what a goose ! A total disgrace. And everyone knows it.
It is corruption and these guys should be in the clink !
The nationals were always the same
608,
ShowsOn, where do you live?
Julie,
Now we’re thinking creatively. This is good!!!!
And scary at the same time.
Right on the edge of the Adelaide metro area. The phone lines in my area are very poor, so ADSL doesn’t work.
586 Adam
Haneef affair wasn’t entirely of Andrews’ making – you think he would have made a decision like that without checking with the PM?
“534
Dan Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Not a frequent poster, but I have a question for the assembled masses: worst minister over the last 11 and a half years.”
Allow me to cast an Ostraki stone for The Minister For Hiding Behind His Amnesty Internatioal Badge, while innocents festered in the hot gulag sun.
Local positive ads at last and, the local candidate actually speaks! Much better ad than the negative stuff.
I have no doubt that Labor will win. It is a matter of the size of that victory. The way things are travelling for Howard these past few days I can’t see too much further narrowing happening and, the possibility of a widening.
A win by two seats will be fantastic! A win by 25 seats will be justice.
OK Let it end,
Here is my next pistol pop
Just two weeks ago, the Newspoll of 53/47 was canned by people on this site, absolutley canned. There was all sorts of amateur pseph bullSH1T about rounding etc
Now, today’s state by state breakdown from Newspoll shows, NSW, QLD and SA on 53/47. Only VIC has held on to the 59/41 split seen before the election was called.
The Narrowing is kicking in beyond doubt. Are you sure the ALP will SH1t it in?
With 1 in 5 still to make up their mind/ Huh? Huh? anyone?
Nick Minchin is, for mine, the scariest Liberal. Like Dr Mengele at Auschwitz.
Will install Friday 23!!!!……………what month, what year?
614, Enemy Combatant, well said, Mr Amnesty is one of the most cynical and brutal of the whole sorry pack. I hereby second your motion.
The polling organisations are going to be tested in the final week of the campaign. Their reputations are going to be well and truly on the line. More people will have definitely made up their minds and less are likely to switch their votes.
This will all be factored into the betting. If the polls show Labor maintaining their lead then Labor will firm even further including the individual seats.
Ahh, Adelaide, the Pair Gain/RAM8 Capital of Australia.
Info of those damn things (I had one as well).
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/s567866.htm
ShowsOn,
Ok, then the phone lines are an issue ….. Guess it doesn’t matter too much what the internet company is then
We live in SW Sydney and have a “non major” internet provider [ read - not Telstra and not Optus ] but our company does depend on running their service through ADSL capable phone lines. I was going to suggest my provider (Internode) but it sounds like that won’t help you.
Squiggle. Yep I’m sure.
614 Enemy Combatant
Agree entirely – I think it was Ian McPhee who called Ruddock his “greatest disappointment in politics”…
ShowsOn, I have Foxtel cabling in my street. I rang Foxtel to confirm. Then advised the disbelieving Telstra. Whose records are different. Don’t need Foxtel subscription to get on the cable, despite Foxtel’s website, when I last looked.
Julie – the QE2 scenario is fascinating. I couldn’t begin to imagine how that might play out if it were to unfold next week. Would there be an overwhelming surge of empire nostalgia? Would it simply underline Howard’s status as yesterday’s man? Would both Howard and Rudd be forced to swear allegiance, hand on heart, to King Charles, so as to calm any concern of a constitutional crisis? Intrigueing, what.
53/47 in Qld 12+ seats
53/47 NSW 7 seats
53/47 SA 4 seats
59/41 Vic 10 seats
50/50 WA 3 seats
+ TAS
1/5 to make up their mind and, according to Anthony Green, the undecideds break 2/1 with the trend.
Yeah. BUT, if the government were actually interested in competition, they would force Telstra to wholesale access to their cable network, so any ISP that was interested could sell the service.
Instead the only choice is Telstra Bigpond, which means their cable packages are a rip off compared to ADSL2 packages.
The speed is great, but I only get 12 GB a month, whereas ADSL2 plans that cost the same offer about 20 – 25 GB a month at the same speed.
But I either pay that, or go back to dial up 56K.
I hope Labor force Bigpond to open up their cable network. Once Labor’s cable to node network is up then I like everyone else in Australia will move to that. Telstra can take their cable and copper phone line network and do whatever they want with it.
I remind everyone that the Newspoll released on election day in 2004 said it was 50/50., but the actual result was 53/47
Squiggle – go to the ABC calculator and plug in those state figures form that “narrowing” newspoll you cite.
But I agree the Vic numbers are dodgy, so leave Vic a 0% swing. And keep Tas, NT and ACT at 0% as well.
The result?
The ALP gets a measly 85 seats…
Squiggle, check this out and enjoy the death of a rabble of a government.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/the-polls-have-it/
Ok Grog,
Not a sliver of doubt then? No tiny twinge of doubt?????
Our Lord anthony Green pointed out to everyone this week that NEwspoll Preferred Prime Minister has a very high corelation (basically 1 to 1) with the primary vote.
Today’s Newspoll showed PPM figures by age breakdown…only the 18-34s are giving KEvin Rein the lead. Basically the 34-50 year olds (ie those with a mortage) and 50+ group (ie those with experience) are at 50-50 on their Preferred prime Minister.
Do you think the ALP is going to get into govetrnment based on the pimple-vote?
No doubts about the result? no reason to worry? huh? Huh?
Yep, I’m on Bigpond cable. Have been on it for nearly 3 years.
It is great and reliable, but if I was on ADSL2 I would get twice as much downloads per month for the same money. (i.e. 20 – 25 GB rather than the 12 GB I get).
Since their is no competition in cable internet it isn’t good value for money. Privatisation of Telstra should’ve fixed that, but surprise, surprise, it didn’t.
Mr Squiggle, the aggregate would’ve used the 53/47 poll… so it’s quite possible that could’ve distorted the state to state polls. Also to note is that each state has a MoE of 4%, which means the ALP’s TPP could be as high as 57/43 or as low as 49/51 in any given state. The 2PP in Vic could be 45/55.
And even if your idea of a narrowing is true (I have no doubt there has been some kind of narrowing over the campaign no matter what other people say) 53/47 in Qld is still a huge swing. If we take all the state polling at face value, the ALP could end up with as many as 98 seats.
If we also look at the aggregates given for Morgan, you can see no state is brilliant for the Coalition. Again, it’s possible to spin the results so they look good for the Coalition but it really does look like grasping at straws.
Your summation that the 54/46 could be really a 52/48 seems even wierder. The additional Coalition primary picked up in ACN’s could just be an inherent conservative bias in the poll, rather than an overestimation of the leading party. There’s no real way of telling, so revisions like that can’t just be applied willy nilly.
But my line allegedly may not carry ADSL2.
Let alone 1, without a fix. And it would be heaps more costly than this little bundle.
Roll it out Kev, super duper broadband.
Probably towards the end of my contract.
Sol probably likes Kev, too.
Stephen surely we are more capable of getting it right than the Americans!
Any tips for tomorrow?
I’ll check them out and see how you go.
I think the coalition’s primary vote has increased by 1.5 – 2%
He does, which upsets La Coonan
Your all rather dull tonight!
Gathered around waiting for the auto-da-fe hey?.
Seems like weve lost the real centre ground on this blog, Hugo,Oakeshott etc, Still we have LTEP, nath I think!
Come on Adam you should be good for a few Radio Moscow moments surely to maintain the rage of the troops?
If Rudd wins I hope he absolutely jumps on broadband. If he could get the network done in 3 years and go to the electorate with us going to the top 5 in the world it would be a huge achievement.
If he could fix water and clean electricity then Labor will govern for 20 years.
Woof, f’ing, woof.
55/6 has become 53/54 so far – but that doesn’t mean it can’t widen out again.
Particularly if no-one gags Abbot.
and if he could cure cancer and remove the Ferguson family from the Labor Party maybe he will govern for 50 years ShowsON.
Well seven full days to go.
Good things
Abbott’s home vidieo should run another day.
Interest rate will bubble along until polling day.
The cricket test looks like going at least 4 days
Rudd’s wave from the Launch should go into the weekend
Many ministers MIA – none of them have made any progress in their debates
Polls point to a clear and comfortable victory
Very tricky for the Libs to get a clear message going with all that static.
Bad things
Too many wispers of close calls in marginals the ALP should be winning
3 Lib ads for every ALP ad.
Solution.
Be objective
Watch less TV
Accept the next week will be a long one
We’re trying to arrange exactly that Dr Freud.
Squiggle,
Of course I worry – I could worry for Australia. I can’t enjoy watching the footy unless my team is 6 goals up with 6 minutes to play.
Well now my side is 8 points up with 8 days to play.
So I am as confident as I will ever be.
ShowsOn, I know it is a little inconvenient, but I also have had WEP access to the broadband of a couple of friends, for a couple of years.
Current laptop, cool, unwired. Even when I am not speaking to them, I can.
Waiting for release of the newest Fujitsu Amilo. Maybe next year. Reserve Bank no object.
#634 @ Lose the election please
Just stop taking those “substances”
More nonsense after more
Didn’t the 51/49 Sturt poll make you feel a bit better?
If either Sturt or Bootby fall, then Labor will get 90+ seats.
ESJ-Lots of great publicity for our friend Nicole today. Did well in a high profile radio interview. Then was endorsed on TT by the journo (who has attacked her repeatedly). You could not have bought better publicity. I might have been wrong! God thats hard to say.
Dan
RE: worst. The whole suppurating lot, kit and karboodle. They are all tarred with the same brush – heartless idealogues, but top vote goes to Howard (racism, lies) Ruddock (undermining the rule of law) Reith, thuggery … Andrews … the rest are just ordinary lib drongoes. The defining thing is lies, through cabinet.
Good for Nicole! Good for Labor! The wave of the future.
I have until now thought Labor would win, by 10 seats
I was wrong.
It will be more than that.
Yes I hate Howard. He has brought out the worst aspects of the Australian character. But I have not had this level of confidence before an election since 1983.
650 I thought you were wrong once Diogenes but I was mistaken.
ShowsOn,
We live in extreme SW Sydney. You can’t go any further west from where I am without running into the odd country town or two, then Warragamba dam. We have Telstra and there is no problem at all with getting a 3rd party internet provider into the house. Why don’t you give them a call and at least explore your options?
http://www.internode.on.net/
I checked their phone numbers and the national is 13.66.33 but they have a special number for Adelaide metro and it is – 08 8228 2999.
Since they have an Adelaide special number, I am sure that they can help you out.
Turning in now, let me know what they tell you after you have had time to talk to them, good luck
:) We have had them for some time now and have been quite happy with them.
Very senior libs are predicting a cliffhanger. Also, Rudd’s vote is apparently slipping in Qld based on private polling.
We may not know the outcome on Sat night they say.
The simple fact is the bookies don’t get elections wrong esp if the incumbent govt are rank outsiders.
Rudd will win and straight away will do the responsible thing and curtail the promised tax cuts and invest in essential infrastructure projects.
Also, Labor staffers will see the true K Rudd (know as Dr Death and for being an out and out B**tard in qld).
So what I say. At least he won’t declare war on another country, rip off the poor and needy or rekindle our racist past.
Personally, the govt have failed to land a glove on Rudd all year and this will come home to roost; firstly with a Tasmania clean sweep. Antony Green will call it all over by 7.45pm
What did ‘83 feel like? Was it like a bonus, considering the Liberals did so well at the 1980 election.
Was everyone kind of shocked that Labor had turned it around so quickly? Or did it seem inevitable because the Liberals spent 3 years doing bugger all, and Hawke was such a credible leader?
“As soon as Keitel had gone,Wenck called his staff together and told them he had no intention of leading them to Berlin. He would hold onto his positions on the Elbe …. in order to get out every solider and civilian who could make it”
Page 368 – The Fall of Berlin by Anthony Read and David Fisher
Grog,
I like your thinking, but I would do one other thing with our Lord Anthony Green’s calculator, based on the Newspoll disclaimer that ACT polling is conducted and included in NSW votes and TAS polling is done but spread over all other states
I’d take between 0.2% -0,5% swing to the ALP out of the NSW swing and give it to the ACT (which incidently doesn’t give them an extra seat because they already have both int he ACT)
Now reduce the NSW swing by the amount you just gave to he ACT.
Now estiamte the tasmania state swing (what’s going on down there by the way, is everyone baptised as a Labor voter????) and pull back all the other states by about 0.1- 0.3%.
What does that do? are we having fun yet?
OK, just got off phone with my senior Liberal staffer mate.
“Things are out of control.
Basically there were two tranches. The first was that we’d lose about 8-10 seats on a 3-4% swing. In the early days that’s what we hoped would happen. We hoped to hang on by 4-6 seats.
What’s happening is that the sky is falling.
Now the 2nd tranche is gone. This is the 10 seats we’d lose in a 4-6% swing.
We’re staring down the barrel at a 20 seat loss.
And it hans’t reached bottom yet. We’re still dropping. Something’s going desperately wrong.
It may come back in the last week., and I’m sure it will, but we’re looking at a 6-7% swing nationwide, which is a 46-54 tpp. I think it will be 45-55.
It’s bad, really bad.”
MORE TO COME
Just saw an ad for Gary Nairn, that mentions: “Gary Nairn and John Howard are a strong team that will go for growth in Eden Monaro”
First time I’ve heard Howard mentioned in a Lib ad.
The use of the Go For Growth though makes it sound like an ad from the first week that they forgot to ditch.
Edstjo, do you think the dessicated one will finally accept responsibility for their defeat or will he blame Tip. LOL
Adam – It has to be Dolly Downer. Any foreign minister who suggests (as he did at the last election) that its okay for other countries to invade your nation’s sovereign territory in pursuit of terrorists has to be off with the fairies.
Diogenes, read back. Much earlier posts, Nicole with the Madam.
Oh, I forgot to explain. When I first got broadband I went through internode. They were extremely helpful and got Telstra to do all sorts of additional tests on my phone line. The problem was Internode couldn’t guarantee that I would get even 128 Kbps via ADSL down my phone lines, that’s how bad they are! Even when I used dial up a 56K modem would rarely connect faster than 33.6K!
Whereas the cable internet I have is 4 – 7 Mb/s depending on how many people are home watching Foxtel, BUT, it is only 12 GB a month, whereas the same ADSL2 plans give double that.
Greens in the ACT are moving from basic coverage of all polling stations as in 2004 to several people on each booth. Great turn out for the briefing last night. Just may be there is a real chance for Kerrie Tucker to knock over Gary Humphries for the second senate seat.
I thought you’d be reading about the different stages of psycho-sexual development.
Crikey, Crikey
619 red wombat
This year. The year of living dangerously.
I just got off the phone to my Labor mate and boy is he really really unhappy.
He told me the word has been issued by Dear Leader Kevin, each MP/trade union/party secretary will be allowed only one job for a relative/ f.buddy or partner in the new Federal government.
Hope so!
There was a report in today’s Oz that the coalition have given up any hope of saving Ron Boswell in QLD. They think the last seat will go to either Family First or the Greens, with the latter the favourite.
??? maybe I got my calculations wrong on your instructions, but I end up with the ALP getting 85 seats.
Given 2-3 weeks ago I predicted only 80, I more than having fun (and btw that’s with keeping Vic at 0% swing)
I presume because he had to speak to you on the phone.
618 Damian- Actually Mengele was not very scary. He was considered by many of the Auschwitz prisoners as the nicest of the doctors. He was especially liked by the children. He used to play with them, feed them and then takes them for a ride in the ambulance. The only problem was he dropped them off at the crematorium. Seem to remember a recent youtube of a nasty man pretending to be nice to a disabled child.
670 But of course – Labor is nothing if not egalitarian. “From each according to their ability – to each according to their need”
MORE FROM MY LIB MATE.
“There are two main things that Labor’s running on. John’s too old, and he doesn’t understand working families.
They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.
“WorkChoices is biting terribly. Abbott blew himself up for the 5th consecutive time in the election.”
“Brian has recycled the last election strategy. He says you can’t trust Rudd, but he comes across as a credible candidate.”
“They (Labor) did a real stunt (about not spending more) – but it’s worked.
I asked, will Howard lose Bennlog? “On current polling, yes”
Costello’s camp is already saying this is all because of John. “if he’d gone we could have avoided this”.
Howard’s camp is saying “You’ve spent the past couple of years insisting that generational change was needed. So Labor’s said ‘great, we’ll pick that up and run with it.”
MORE TO COME
668 mad cow
And when today’s Telstra looked it up, said what bigpond address?
Crikey Whitey at? I won’t even ask. Intense discussion.
I recommended Pollbludger and Possum.
Might have to change my blog name, in due season.
Eddy,
That would be Comrade Kevin. I love him so much the band of my underpants are plastered with his initials….. you should see them when I’m ‘Going for Growth’
Shows On 673. LOL
Have you seen the film of the same name? It’s really good:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086617/
One of the only films I know where a female actor plays a man, but who’s character isn’t a cross dresser / transexual / transgender.
The director simply thought she was the best person for the part!
ESJ, just got off the phone with my Liberal mate, and boy is he really, really unhappy, after the election there is only one staff position avaliable in Campbell Newman’s office, and it’s already taken.
Shouldn’t have said that either. Loose lips.
Chris in LDN – perhaps you could have KevinO7 tattooed on your bottom and post it on Youtube. A novel way of demonstrating your heroic and comradely fervour for the cause!
Voterboy of over the Water,
How does your Liberal staffer mate like you running off to the nearest blog to dish the dirt on the Liberals internal polling?
.
.
Edward,
Dr. Stumpfegger can’t decide whether to test the cyanide capsule on Blondi or Downer. Cruelty to animals either way he goes. Must be getting tough in the Bunker.
And I got the loaf of bread and milk tonight and the 80 year old lady in the corner store said “Edward, My goodness those Labor attack ads are really cutting through I think the Liberals will collapse next week”
681 [ESJ, just got off the phone with my Liberal mate, and boy is he really, really unhappy, after the election there is only one staff position avaliable in Campbell Newman’s office, and it’s already taken.]
Tell him to phone the Member for Clayfield’s office there could be a job going there when Flegg gets rolled after the Federal Election is over.
Squiggle @ 584 – except in 1998 ALP was ahead on TPP vote. so i think the answer is “with respect, no”.
VBOW – keep it coming. I think many here will not fully exhail until Anthony Green calls it – but a vision of panic in the bunker is soothing.
Edward,
Youtube doesn’t allow vids like that – and I doubt anyone apart from Family First voters would see it on xtube or pornotube……
Paul K,
I didnt know but he tested the capsules on Blondi’s bitches first then Blondi.
# 657 ‘83 felt great – We were in recession (funny how Howard was treasurer) and also had a drought – booting out the libs was a hoot!
Looking forward to 24th November
683 That may be taking comradeship to an extreme. Probably best to leave the mad monk to make a virtual ass of himself. He does it so well.
MORE FROM THE TORY BUNKER…
“11 years ago in 96, we were in govt nationally and 8 out of 9 states/territories. Next week we’re going to be in none.”
“If we lose by as much as we’re looking at, there’ll be the usual dignified bloodbath that the Liberal Party usually indulges in after a loss.
“Labor’s campiagn has been very impressive. They’ve achieved a lot in a very short period of time.”
On the party organisation. “If the swing is big enough, it could rupture us. The whole leadership could go – it would be terrible – very hard for the party to regroup. We’ve bled so much out of the states, financially, in terms of talent. Then we’d turn on each other, the usual public recriminations, inquiries, election post-mortems.
“We’re looking at an 8 seat loss here (NSW) at the moment”.
Can they pull back? “Knowing our people they’ll go for the big scandals – do the dump.”
Is there anything out there? “I don’t know. But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further.”
658 ESJ-Reichhelm (Wenck’s chief of staff) re Keitels rant to Wenck and he about saving Berlin, “We let him talk and we let him leave”.
Do you prefer full cream (~3.5%), skimmer (~1.5%), low fat (~1%), or no fat (>0.1%) milk?
V.good line Diogenes.
some one up in this stream said noice things about Ms Cornes. Thank you.
I will no longer be happy with a close win
I will be very disappointed without a ninety ++ result.
Fonzie, I don’t know what nick you are using, I hope sometimes it is Tabitha … but I hope you show yourself in the next week.
I must say, should Labor win (its still up in the air people), one thing I will look foward to seeing is Brian Loughnane addressing the press club discussing how the Liberals lost and why it all went wrong. Its nice seeing contemptable bastards eat humble pie.
Exactly. The LNP do not have a primary of 43% as per the last AC Nielsen, just noise. And things if anything are now getting worse for the LNP. 54/46 may be end up being the best case scenario for Howard if they can’t stop this foot shooting in the next 5 days.
“684
ND Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Voterboy of over the Water,
How does your Liberal staffer mate like you running off to the nearest blog to dish the dirt on the Liberals internal polling?”
You know – I don’t think he’s twigged. And if he does, well, he knows me well enough to know it’s the sort of underhanded thing I’d do.
(as for whether this stuff is based on internal polling, I don’t think he sees the stuff, but he certainly has enough conversations with people who do).
Squiggle
I’d say labor 92 minimum and up to a possible 117.
Why would anyone vote for the libs.
Work Choices, Abbott on video says they knew the protections and fairness would go but people can always leave the job and get another one if they don’t like it.
Hockey in an interview says AWA’s are being offered on a take it or leave basis and if people don’t like the AWA they are offered they can go get another job.
People know that there is no way the government will keep the Fairness Test if they get back in, it is unworkable.
I was in one of the big supermarkets today and overheard two workers there, one said she was being pressured into signing an agreement that she didn’t want but may have to as she could go through all the stress of looking for another job.
The big 2 employ about 600,000 between them, every $10 per week they can cut off the wage means an extra $300 million in profit for them and $10 less for a struggling family.
I was also talking to a work mate who said his son did a 14 hour straight shift overnight moving displays around at a small retailer, flat $12 per hour no penalties, dad wnet down later to the bloke and said he could have slipped them a bit extra as he would have saved a motza by not getting in professional movers. Result no more shifts. Gotta remember Abbotts advice, “A bad boss is better than no boss”.
Economic managment, Howard has given us ten interest rate increases in a row, last week he waved the white flag on inflation, as many papers reported, and admitted he had no policies to control it, it was all due to the drought and oil prices.
Last 2 weeks Howard announces spending plans to ensure we will get an 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th and probably fifteenth increase in interest rates.
Then the Audit office releases details on how the govt approved over $300 million in spending without any submissions in some cases. Howard says the govt doesn’t have to accept advice of the public servants but how can there be any advice when there aren’t any submissions or applications.
Health, Abbot admitted they have been underfunding health for years and Mersey shows they cannot administer and cost even one hospital, let alone a whole national system.
The environment, still denying climate change, and their water plan was drawn up in great haste without costing from any area of the government.
Education, great white elephant technical colleges that are part of the regional pork barrelling exercise. and Bishop recently announced the scrapping of a national curriculim.
Indigenous affairs, well not many care about that, the intervention inthe NT is all about getting the land off the aboriginals so that they can dumping the nuclear waste there.
Nuclear power, gauranteed Australia will get at least 25, won’t tell us wher though, and a lot sooner than most realise, the sites will be picked and given to business in the next 2 years and set in iron clad contract that will cost billions to break. No policy on compensation for home owners who will see their house values plumment when the sites are announced.
We are seeing polls around the 56 mark this week, before labors policy launch, they will be aorund the 58 mark next week, Howard is a poor preformer in campaigns.
re earlier comments about vote shifter in the last week. well try this one: SECRET LABOR PLAN : CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON THE FAMILY HOME!!! given with the usual shrill of the desperate. Drop it on friday am wake up to the shrill headlines radio and TV reports no time to rebut etc etc. walk into polling booth on saturday with that fresh in your mind… bingo another 3 years of the rodent. yes the rodent. now way will he retire. he wants menzies’ record.
no way you say. well that’s exactly what they did in the 1980 election. cost hayden the primeministership. hawke had to specifically reject it in the 83 policy speech.
I don’t think you can discount two minute Tim Fischer with his avuncular “charm” ensuring the politicising of the high court.
And for total uselessness: Pat Farmer
83 was my first ever voting election (I voted liberal btw). I knew nothing about politics. I remember Fraser saying that if Labor wins you will have to take your money out of the bank and hide it under your bed.
I still don’t know what the hell he was talking about!
The old standard is that governments lose elections.
In hindsight, that’s what they’ll say about this one too:
Workchoices, Iraq, slow reaction to climate change, 10 interest rates rises in a row, RPP scandal, Haneef bungle, Equine Flu bungle, Howard.
Saying govt’s lose them and just looking at the unemployment rate, ignores everything else they can do to lose it.
Rudd will also get credit (and rightly so), but in 6-9 years time when people are wondering if the polls will replicate the 07 election, people (like us) will say, no the situation was unique then and will then will list off all of the above.
EStJ, I see you have reached stage 5. Good for you! I’m sure it’s a relief. It’s better than farting in the wind. Much more pleasant to be around too..
cheers,
Alan H
Worst parliamentary speaker – Pat Farmer or Danna Vale?
He was barking in the previous thread, what stage is that? 4.5?
668 mad cow.
Crikey, Crikey
Think I misunderstood your same comment, earlier Nielsen, think, thread.
What say you.
This is faster, cheap and free all to me. Bail out cost in a year will be 180.
Rod Cameron on Lateline, talking down Labor’s chances. With Hewson.
Oh Alan H,
I thought you left 2 days ago? Whats wrong are you lonely?
Cheers,
EStJ
Rod Cameron and Hewson on LL
705 [I still don’t know what the hell he was talking about!]
Don’t worry about it Centre, Fraser had no idea what he was talking about either.
705 neither did he!
Edward, I’ll leave the gallows humour to you since you’re so good at it. I’m a little pooped after spending all day in a campaign office explaining to old ladies on the phone how to fill in their postal votes. They’re very keen to do you lot in, but good. Congratulations on Rortsgate II, by the way. Having the same scandal run at two successive elections takes real imagination.
Only Blondi was given the cyanide, by the way. Fritz Tornow took the pups up to the garden and shot them.
And now for my omnibus edition… (with spelling corrected) – William – will send some cash over to pay for the bandwidth…
OK, just got off phone with my senior Liberal staffer mate.
“Things are out of control.
Basically there were two tranches. The first was that we’d lose about 8-10 seats on a 3-4% swing. In the early days that’s what we hoped would happen. We hoped to hang on by 4-6 seats.
What’s happening is that the sky is falling.
Now the 2nd tranche is gone. This is the 10 seats we’d lose in a 4-6% swing.
We’re staring down the barrel at a 20 seat loss.
And it hasn’t reached bottom yet. We’re still dropping. Something’s going desperately wrong.
It may come back in the last week., and I’m sure it will, but we’re looking at a 6-7% swing nationwide, which is a 46-54 tpp. I think it will be 45-55.
It’s bad, really bad.
There are two main things that Labor’s running on. John’s too old, and he doesn’t understand working families.
They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.
WorkChoices is biting terribly. Abbott blew himself up for the 5th consecutive time in the election.
Brian has recycled the last election strategy. He says you can’t trust Rudd, but he comes across as a credible candidate.
They (Labor) did a real stunt (about not spending more) – but it’s worked.
I asked, will Howard lose Bennelong? “On current polling, yes”
Costello’s camp is already saying this is all because of John. “if he’d gone we could have avoided this”.
Howard’s camp is saying “You’ve spent the past couple of years insisting that generational change was needed. So Labor’s said ‘great, we’ll pick that up and run with it.”
“11 years ago in 96, we were in govt nationally and 8 out of 9 states/territories. Next week we’re going to be in none.”
If we lose by as much as we’re looking at, there’ll be the usual dignified bloodbath that the Liberal Party usually indulges in after a loss.
Labor’s campaign has been very impressive. They’ve achieved a lot in a very short period of time.”
On the party organisation. “If the swing is big enough, it could rupture us. The whole leadership could go – it would be terrible – very hard for the party to regroup. We’ve bled so much out of the states, financially, in terms of talent. Then we’d turn on each other, the usual public recriminations, inquiries, election post-mortems.
“We’re looking at an 8 seat loss here (NSW) at the moment”.
Can they pull back? “Knowing our people they’ll go for the big scandals – do the dump.”
Is there anything out there? “I don’t know. But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further.”
ESJ- I think that line sums up the campaign. People seem to be politely listening to Howard (witness the apologetic tone of the Labor ads complaining about Howard) and now they are going to let him leave. They dont seem to hate him the way many on this site, myself included, do. I repeatedly bring up Haneef, AWB, WMD, SIEV etc when they say “Oh he’s not so bad” and they just go quiet for a while and say “But the economy’s going well”. And Rudd has learnt from past Labor mistakes. It’s no good making the Howard Haters hate him even more, they are already going to vote for you. That’s why I am yet to hear the words Haneef, AWB, WMD, SIEV etc in any significant way by Rudd.
Oh thank something that they booted Kroger.
Hewson is refreshingly honest, except that a lot of his commentary seems to be driven by still open wounds.
parramatters, Snap!
I imagine Labor will have people manning the radio and tv waves to pick up any last minute dirty tricks.
As an ex-Liberal supporter let me say there will be nothing dignified about it and that’s the way it should be. We’re playing for big bickies and it will be survival of the fittest. Maybe if Labor had been more ruthless and had proper bloodbath after the ‘96 election instead of going with ex-Keating Ministers they wouldn’t have had to wait in Opposition for so long. For anyone saying that the Libs will be finished knows nothing about politics.
What big scandals?
Well whatever it is, no doubt Abbott will be involved.
Say, where is Glen? It is well past his bedtime, but.
ESJ… were you meant to be the plagiariser a few weeks back? I swear I struggle to keep up with all the accusations thrown around on this site.
Hewson is a sore sore loser. I’m sure the Libs think of him like Labor people think of Latham.
Diogenes, any person that listens and then quietly says something about the economy is going to vote Liberal. They’re just being polite and humouring you. Most people are generally unconfrontational and avoid arguing over politics.
Unedited version of Abbott’s gaffe being shown on LL. No diff.
Galaxy 53-47 according to LL! Is this teh Narrowing(tm)???
I think Diogenes,
The reasons the Liberals will lose is Its time and to a lesser degree WorkChoices. The implementation was poor and it allowed the unions to get away with demonising it.
Having said that -the last week factor and the uninterested middle may in an outside chance allow JWH to sneak back.
I guess we will know by next Saturday just how potent these factors are!
Adam,
You are correct and I am wrong. Seargeant Tornow did indeed shoot Blondi’s bitches and gave lethal injections to Eva Braun’s 2 dogs but the book doesnt say what type of dog.
VBOW keep them coming. I love to see how their minds work
Galaxy marginal poll to be released on Sunday shows Labor 53/47 on Lateline
In the about 80 polls since Rudd became Leader of the ALP, the highest TPP for the coalition has been 47% on 3 occasions, followed by 46% on 5 occasions. (of those 8 high figures 4 have been in Galaxy polls, which overall appear to have a slight bias towards the coalition).
There does appear to have been a narrowing of sorts, from around 42% in the Feb-May period, foloowed quickly by a rise to an average around 44% in the May-Oct period and a further slight rise to 45-46% over the last few weeks.
On the face of it the best TPP for the coalition would seem to be 47%, while a more probable result is around 45-46%. ANY of these would result in a landslide for Labor!
Of course the game’s never over until the fat lady does her stuff, however I for one am very happy to be in the red corner for the first time in nearly 12 long years.
726 [Most people are generally unconfrontational and avoid arguing over politics.]
The exception is after the tenth interest rise, when the people say enough of this lunacy.
Of course it is different! Can’t you tell that Labor got George Lucas to add some tie fighters and light sabers to it!
Everyone knows that isn’t really Abbott, it is CGI. The camera lies, there is no truth etc, etc.
He’s handing out Liberal how to vote cards – thought he’d get ready early.
Don’t they save that bile for Fraser?
LTEP,
I dont know maybe (about the plagiarism accusation), I seem to be attracting this nutty peanut gallery that likes to pop up and attack, but thats ok as PJK used to say the dogs are barking but the caravan moves on
53-47 in key marginals? I’ll take that!
Why don’t Galaxy do a real poll?? Are they afraid of the result?
#728. Marginal polling so that’s a good result.
Lol Adam,
Yes manufactured polling – of course! A conspiracy!
It’s also bad policy. But I agree with you that the coalition are hopeless politicians. Howard believed his own hype, which was enough to doom the whole ship.
Thanks VBOW.
The primaries were odd though. I’m pretty sure (it only flashed) that Libs ahead 43-42 on primaries, with 11% for Greens.
I’m not watching lateline at the moment… is it a national poll, or just marginals?
Just marginals
Just got off the phone with Democrats HQ.
No one was there. Spoke to a cleaner about the cricket.
From memory you are in S.A.
Rudd will be at the Prospect Town Hall tomorrow at 12:30.
Well that’s alright then. I think Labor would be pretty happy with that.
53/47 in marginals is perfect. Leaves % for the wider margins.
“But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further”
Thats the thing to watch over the last week. Do they risk an even bigger defeat by going for “Kev, the nun and the goat” story – or do they go for damage control and try to limit things to 20 seats.
Not sure how they could switch to damage control now. Beasely did it in 2001 (and prevented a wipeout) but that was a long way out from the election.
11% for the Greens? purleeze.
What was this, Tasmania only?
LOL at Lefty E at 745
And thanks VBotW, I won’t need my valium today now……
A short story with poor ending.
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=40
Did the cleaner have any tip for Bennelong?
Still wondering if The Rodent is going to get Stanley Bruced.
726 LTEP- I am under no illusion that any of them will be swayed by my arguments and fully expect each of them to vote Lib. The reason I do it is to try to understand the way they think. It is somewhat confused by the fact whilst I am their boss and can sack them now under Serfchoices, I am trying to arguing against a policy that is meant to favour me and hurt them! In vain!
You’d need to know which marginals they polled, in what states, how big was the sample etc?
I don’t live in a marginal, I don’t know what’s it like to be bombarded day after day with mail, direct marketing, spending promises etc. I’m guessing the Liberals are doing a damn lot of this currently. Their only hope is to sandbag all the marginals they can save, and force Rudd to have to win seats higher up on the pendulum.
Yes they love the omnibus in the UK. We could watch a whole week of Home and Away on saturday if we were trashed.
“They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.”
Really? Come down to the kitchen I sometimes go and help out at in the city – no drunks, no old homeless men, no mentally unstable. Families with kids, getting a meal. Come down and talk to them and ask them where they were a decade ago and where they are now. Invented an anxiety in the economy? My my, how deluded.
where’s Kroger on Lateline? Has he given up?
Lateline:
“it’s Goodnight Irene for the Coalition…”
I love it.
HH @ 755 The marginals — North Sydney, Higgins etc.
There’s several ways you could look at it.
1) As some marginals might swing much wider than 53 (eg. Braddon) there will be some swinging much less than 53, possibly under 50.
2) 53/47 is what’s being shown rougly in the Galaxy national poll.
3) If most of the seats fall within the 3% margin (most between 50-56%) then Labor should pick up virtually all of these marginals.
In any case I don’t think a 100+ victory is at hand.
I’m getting Labor and Liberal mail outs every 3 – 4 days in Sturt, and that’s on a 6.8% margin.
I have to go and do some real work now, folks. But I just want to add this piquant and unbelievable touch.
This being a Friday, I’m working from home. While I was on the phone to my mate, one of my wife’s friends rang, from Australia, on the other phone. She’s a lovely woman but could win Olympic Gold for mindless chatter. So I rather brusquely cut her off, and it was only as her end went ‘click, brrr…’ that I realised it should have been my friend who I hung up on and not her.
For she is related to Tony Abbott.
Perhaps next time…
LOL Ashley: I’ll take 53:47 in Berowra, thank you very much!
Seriously, maybe Bennelong and Wentworth are in the poll this time?
Link below to census data.
Has spreadsheets by age, sex and location of people.
You can put in results from Morgan, Newspoll and ACN and create your own swings and TPP, I’ve been allocating 80% greens to labor and 50% others.
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/Home/census
If the polls stay stead at what they have been through the campaign you are looking at a comfortable win around 92 seats, if there is a 1-2% shift to labor you are looking at more comfortable win of 117 seats.
I rarely receive any election material and I’m in Eden-Monaro.
ShowsOn: I’ve got one pamplet so far from Ruddock and zilch from Labor, but Berowra is a safe Liberal seat, nobody is bothering in my neck of the woods.
LTEP: I would have thought you’d be inundated in Eden Monaro.
My Grandma lives in Gilmore, and she’s been getting a lot of junk mail from Joanna Gash.
Nope, one pamphlet here or there. That’s about it. They may be targetting other areas of the seat that are usually more Liberal friendly.
I know I’ve asked this before, but why is Labor apparently playing dead in Paterson? It just doesn’t make sense. Nearly all of the margin in Paterson came from the last campaign and then it was wall to wall posters of Howard himself. “trust me”.
What gives?
Good evening all. Hi ESJ.
Mate, I’m seriously considering to change camps after I saw THIS political advert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&sdig=1
I MIGHT vote Liberal… GO 4 GROWTH !!!!!!
It was a bit of a worry, listening to my favourite Lib, Boothby, on the phone, tonight.
She is distressed at having read some letter to the Editor, The Age, on line, disparaging Kev as smarmy, dishonest etc, and is hugely concerned about the front benchers. All unionists.
Front benchers? No, said I, they are all lawyers. And dishonest.
NO, I mean Kevnco..
Dishonest?, said I.
Try…………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
John Hewson is a good commentator for the Libs. Lateline should get him back more often.
Mad Cow: perhaps Labor’s internal polling doesn’t look too good in Paterson?
I keep reading on this blog that Bob Baldwin is spending money like crazy, the Labor bloke probably hasn’t got the resources to compete.
Yeah they’re pumping in to marginals I guess.
Very surprising.
In Sturt, Labor has looked at the Torrens state electorate which swung to Labor by 10% at the state election in 2006. They are targeting that region of Sturt to try to replicate those swings. If it works they will go a long way to knocking off Pyne.
Here’s Antony’s stats from the last state election:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/guide/torr.htm
LTEP
Gary Nairn’s people started door-knocking 2 weeks ago in Queanbeyan. It seems they haven’t really been contemplating loss until recently….
Obviously, the comparison is YRAW, which has been doorknocking since 2005….
All this talk of marginals and porkbarreling raises a topic of last night. When the AEC changes the electoral boundaries, do they just try to keep the 80,000 from the census right or do they also try to make the seats closer? In an ideal world, wouldn’t they try to make all seats closer to avoid porkbarreling?
This is the best parody advert I’ve seen for this campaign.
My favourite part is when they are going through the metals and the guy included “Hafnium”. I have no idea why, but I find that part hilarious.
Apparently Labor has got too many volunteers to work in Bennelong, they aren’t accepting any more. Lots of workers in that seat for the Greens too.
Howard apparently has to pay Chinese students to disseminate his literature.
Voter Boy @ 717
Hey, that’s exactly what I pictured in my mind: a party organisation that’s falling apart at the seems and rushing headlong into oblivion.
It’s a great post, thanks for relying what’s going on.
Lateline, finally.
584
Mr Squiggle Says:
With one and half weeks to go??? Anyone spooked? Scared? Huh, Huh anyone?
No.
Well, not on the Labor side.
Are you guys serious about Rudd campaigning in Downer’s seat tomorrow?
Dolly would hate that
Is the Galaxy marginal seat poll out tomorrow or Sunday?
Also, does anyone know whether the Morgan marginal seat poll is going to have individual results for each seat, or is it just going to be another aggregate (yawn)?
Now I cant leave that porky unchallenged HH,
Labor regularly pays for “volunteers” at booths too etc, it just shows how hollowed out both parties are. Unless of course you have ubermensch like Adam available who are sadly few and far between.
Read Piping Shrike’s analysis of this, first rate.
The Galaxy poll gives the coalition some hope. They are INFRONT on the primaries. We shall see next Sat night but im gonna make a call and you all feel free to remind me next Sat if Im wrong. The coalition will hang on to government by 5 Seats.
AG01
are you feeling triumphal?
Health complaints going away? happiness returning?
HH @774, yes of course Baldwin has rich mates who can pay for the wall to wall ads, *but* head office could pay for a half decent response.
My point is a bit more subtle. Why if Labor is throwing resources at places like Higgins, and given that they in other respects seem to know what they are doing, can’t they run a *few* TV ads to give Jim some recognition, and do some leaflets designed to undermine some of Baldwin’s claims and the negative ideas in the Liberal ads.
I’ve talked to a few people and those teetering are rather like those on that four corners program. They are a bit scared and all they need is a bit of doubt in the other direction.
Is the ALP just too Sydney focused? Does it have internal polling that says that Paterson is won? Is it planning a last minute ad campaign?
As to who was the worse minister in the government.
It would have to be the Prime Minister Howard.
His treatment of Kylie Russell was personal, designed to hurt and sent a message to all, you do not criticise the government.
“You’d have to be thinking on the purest of dehumanised political levels to either forget or deliberately snub the man’s widow.”
The full article from Margo Kinston is well worth the read and was the lowest act by this government just for the fact it was so personal.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/27/1067233083792.html
Galaxy marginal seat poll is coming out on Sunday, Ashley.
And it looks like it’s an aggregate…
Shows on ….Ummmmmmmm what is Hafnium???
Well, Freeman, they must be polling some other Australian people we havent met in the last 9 months of polling – including earlier this week.
hahaha…..hewson…”wenworth voters with their feet in a bucket of champagne saying ‘we can save the tamar’
VBOTW, thanks, I reckon another update next Thursday would be just dandy.
Oh Mad cow I think Tim Gartrell read Possum’s analysis and decided to spend the direct mail money on the ultra safe liberal seats like Higgins, Kooyong and Goldstein.
Maybe Possum is really a very clever concern troll?
ESJ, I don’t know where you get this tripe from. Labor has more volunteers than it knows what to do with. The booth roster in our seat was finished weeks ago and new people are still ringing up to volunteer.
And re: the Galaxy poll.
It’s impossible to properly interpret the results of this poll until we know which seats they were looking at.
Does anyone remember which seats Galaxy looked at when it last did a marginal seat poll aggregate (if they have done one before)?
I don’t think so. As far as I know he will be in Prospect which is in Adelaide.
Bob Baldwin would have an incumbancy advantage.
I don’t know much about Jim Arneman: is he a decent candidate?
ESJ – Part of me is VERY CAUTIOUS TOO.
As A Lib I hope you had a laugh too!
Trioli: “Now you’re just playing possum!”
love it!! although she probably didn’t mean ‘our’ possum..
Maybe its a NSW specific phenomenom A, but definitely is the done thing north of Mexico.
Do you mind if I refer to you as A Adam, I feel we have been talking so long its a little more personal.
The Key word there is “polling”. Polls ALWAYS favour Labor. If you dont believe me check the final polls from every polling company before the 2004 election. Every one of them, even Galaxy understated the coalitions vote. I guess Coalition voters dont like talking on the phone as much as the labor voters.
Thank you voterboy @ 717. I really needed to hear even net gossip that Howard is on to lose Bennelong. I was so puzzled by the betting odds for that seat – Maxine is very popular.
I kept being pessimistic about polls etc, and thinking Labor just can’t win, simply because of such “anomalies”. The safest Liberal seats are appearing strong safes – at least according to the betting. For a proper landslide/win – with strong majority, as we saw in 96, the losing Party’s leadership and front-bench has to be decimated too. Otherwise I could not believe in a decisive Labor victory, and kept thinking it was just going to be a close call, a nail-biter down to the wire.
anti-govt feeling is often bloodiest in at least some of their own safest seats. I remember in 96 how many Labor heads fell, with Beazley, Crean and Swan seeming about the only ones left! And Beazley having to wait on postals I think … Could they even form a Shadow Cabinet? Same thing happened to Frazer’s cABINET IN THE 1983 election. Some of the safest front-bencher seats have to falling, for me to be confident.
I just wish Costello could lose his, and Abbott. I’ve worked years in Abbott’s portfolio, dont think much of the political appointment of his Dept Secretary either, getting a promotion for their fabrication of the Children Overboard scandal.
But the one I hate the most? Mal Brough, his policies are a tad right of Attila the Hun, you should have seen some of his policy proposals that got thrown out of Cabinet by Costello, coz they were too right-wing even for him!
And don’t knock Vanstone, as a woman I liked her, despite her politics. She always looked so daggy. Blunt and what-you-see-what-you get in-your-face. Very refreshing for a woman politician not to give a damn about her looks, or to be picked on about her looks… And funny thing, Downer often came over as a nice guy, if you didn’t know his politics.
Also agree with whoever said Labor spent so long in Opposition licking their wounds, decimated by the heavy losses, just not able to get their act together, and thats why they’ve lost so much ground over so many elections. People wanted to get rid of Howard, but Labor just couldn’t give them a credible alternative – much to my sobbing and “eternal loser” mentality!
Rudd surely doesn’t need to campaign in the seat of Adelaide?
I would have thought he’d be going to Boothby or Sturt.
53/47 in marginals …
Lets say this is the first 15 marginals on the pendulum – average margin of 1.8% to LNP. Now the ALP is 3% ahead … overall swing of 4.8% in the marginals. Enough for a modest win – add a few more seats in the 4% to 10% zone and you have a comfortable majority.
Need a bit more background – but this poll is showing nothing new or different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafnium
Lateline.
Galaxy Poll, Sunday. The dreaded narrowing. How sudden is that?
Hewson was good on LateLine. Much better than Kroger. They should have him more often.
I’m guessing Galaxy polled 1000 people in 4 or 5 marginals?
It’s Dr Carr to you. (I always enjoy saying that.)
Freeman @ 803,
you’re wrong on one point (at least). The last ACN before the 2004 election had the Coalition at 54% on TPP – above their final figure of 52.8%.
Galaxy was closest on 52.5% (if my memory is correct).
805 HH- perhaps he just wants to see Kate Ellis again?
Adam or Dr Carr: any new info from your Labor friends?
More bad news for Howard:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Howard-blasted-in-businessmans-ad/2007/11/16/1194766971649.html
Howard blasted in businessman’s ad
“Melbourne businessman Bill McHarg has launched a new election advertising campaign attack on Prime Minister John Howard for failing to act on climate change.
Mr McHarg, the former founding director of the Colliers real estate company, has paid for full-page newspaper advertisements in local and national papers saying: “For 11 years Howard has fiddled. Now Australia burns.”
But he is also campaigning in Mr Howard’s seat of Bennelong in Sydney, handing out leaflets and how-to-vote cards with the message “Planet first – Howard Last”.
The advertising campaign costs in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”
Oh A I love it when you get authoritarian like that!
No way! Not another post-modernist tory hack.
Let me guess, you think that the scientific method is only one way of “knowing” that isn’t better or worse than any other method.
Diogenes, if I lived in Adelaide, I’d be off to see Kate Ellis tomorrow. I’m guessing a lot of young blokes are prominent at her campaign appearances LOL
If the Galaxy poll is a marginals only poll, it’s all over for the libs. 53-47 is a disaster in marginals. What is more, it means that the swing in the less marginal is bigger if the 54-56/46-44 national swing results are right, meaning that the number of seats that may fall to Labor are possibly more than we have predicted. Don’t lose hope! Be the True Believers!! Howard is stumbling, not Rudd – Be STRONG, STRONG I tell you.
Lindsay Voter
What do you call a Liberal candidate in Cranebrook???
Dinner last night with confirmed Liberal voters. We played the “what can John do to win this” game.
No-one had any ideas, really.
HH @799, Bob Baldwin probably does have an incumbancy factor, but no bigger than he had in ‘01 when managed a bit over a percent. The ads say it all ‘Bob Baldwin works hard for Paterson’ meaning, he’s lazy, he’s infatuated with the perks of office and for the most part he sits around shining his ass, and handing out press releases.
Jim is an honest to goodness decent guy who I’ve met on several occasions. His campaign staff, however, give me the feeling they are earnest amatures. Even so, head office should recognise this as a seat to win and find some modest resources.
What you gotta know about is that in ‘04 the election was wall to wall Bob+Howard posters. I’m a great bloke, Howard is my mate, you can trust him on interest rates. My estimate of Paterson being more marginal than it looks is that that 5% swing was based on a campaign about trusting Howard while the ALP did nothing. Even Antony Green has a comment about that 5% being soft.
I assume we are getting another Newspoll on Monday or Tuesday. That will tell us whether there is even a modest last-minute narrowing. It’s always been my expactation that there will be, which is why I am sticking to my prediction of 53% and about 80 seats.
Onya, Dr Carr.
I’m happy to bow down to Dr Carr, one of many experts on this board.
Probably should have had a few less beers tonight, I may regret that comment in the morning. In the meantime …
Aussieguru01 @ 771
That YouTube clip was great. Very funny.
freeman – come back soon
Odd that neither Hewson nor Cameron mentioned the Galaxy marginal poll (perhaps a pre-record).
Cameron was as confident as I’ve ever seen him.
Hewson should be on anything anytime instead of Kroger. He was confident but not stupid about it.
Kroger, would have said Howard won the week, and Rudd’s campaign launch didn’t go down well.
There was a poll of 18 coalition marginals recently that were aggregated on a state basis for qld, nsw, vic and sa. The tpp there was 53.1/46.9
It looked like the Alp would win at least 14 of these seats. They didn’t poll tas, wa or nt.
Thanks for the love Bluebottle.
Not trying to be post-modernist at all (nor to impersonate Glen or LTEP), but it does depend a lot on which marginals, doesn’t it?
Or have I missed something (just got home).
Mad Cow: it probably doesn’t help that Jim Arneman was a loser in the state election, although very narrowly(by 14 votes?). If Labor thought they had a chance of winning, they’d put the resources in, shadow ministers or even Rudd would visit etc. The money has gone instead into Dobell and Robertson.
Shaboh, que?
Adam and Edward,
Get a room.
LTEP @ 831,
I’ve got a feeling that Bluebottle has had some of Dave55’s beers tonight…
HH. I have warned you before that Kate Ellis is an engaged woman. Her fiance comes from a tough Scots Labor background and will not be afraid to biff you if provoked. So I suggest you treat the Hon Member with due respect.
Well so much for KR being an economic conservative according to Deputy Dawg, KR has not lodged with the Departments of Treasury and Finance and Administration for independent costings.
Seems Rudd doesn’t think the following policies don’t need to be fully and independently costed:
• Labor’s Digital Education Revolution
• Labor’s $2.5 billion public hospital policy (including GP super-clinics)
• Labor’s rental subsidy scheme (centred on $6,000 tax breaks for investors)
• Cutting withholding tax
• Labor’s $1 billion tax credit for water infrastructure
• Teen dental vouchers
• $150 million for insulating rental properties
• Reduced HECS for maths and science students.
Looks like an avenue for the Tories to hammer Rudd, but it doesn’t look like the media will have a go at Rudd at this late stage. What’s this Galaxy poll business???
Oh and what are the chances of the Democrats holding a Senate seat after the election, do they have a chance or is it pie in the sky?
As a Tory i’d far rather them have the balance of power compared to the Greens.
837 Adam-What about Mia Handshin?
Hey ESJ,
I and my branch members have letterboxed 1000+ each in this wek. I jave fully staffed my booth with volunteers. 3 have come from pollbludger!!
I also found time to make up my bingo cards which will bring in a lazy $200 for the branch. I have not heard of a single person being paid!
HH @833, for all the same demographic reasons that Dobell and Robertson are worth going for, so too is Paterson. It doesnt make sense.
Glen, the Dems have next to no chance of winning any Senate seats in this election. The best hope is for Andrew Bartlett in Queensland. To do this he’d need to get over 4% of the primary. Which I think is unlikely, but others say is possible.
Sorry Swing Lowe I stand corrected. I do stand by my theory though that Labor voters are more likely to respond to polling than coalition voters. I guess thats due to the demographics, alot of the coalition supporters are seniors and are more likely to hang up on annoying telemarketer type people.
I’m in Melbourne. Not one piece of electioneering material from letterboxing from any candidate. We did receive some material via Australia Post from Lindsay Tanner.
Well yeah. It’s the Tory po-mo implication that all polling is inherently flawed that is completely bizarre.
Fortunately Trioli doesn’t look like she’s just come back from a funeral tonight.
Dyno,
You’re right – this analysis is fairly pointless if we don’t know which seats have been polled. We don’t know if it includes any Labor marginals, how far up the pendulum they go and whether they’ve polled the marginals in Tas or NT (or WA for that matter).
Wait until Sunday, however, and all shall be revealed…
Adam, I’m not likely to be getting anywhere near Kate Ellis, but hey, I can still watch her sitting behind Rudd in parliament.
Another nominee for sexiest politician is Melissa Park, the next member for Fremantle.
Any links to the Galaxy marginals poll? Or was it Lateline mention only?
53-47 in marginals is huge. Suggests to me 54 may be on nationally.
Though Im sticking with 53.5 and 85 seats.
Married.
Freeman @ 844,
Your analysis of seniors may well be true, but you fail to remember that many young voters don’t have landline phones – which means that polling companies never poll them. And we all know which way young voters are voting this time around…
Can someone explain to me (very slowly) why 53-47 and a 42 primary is good?
Are they even on primaries Lefty E?
850 ShowsOn- But is she happily married?
It’s all irrelevant anyhow because they’d just keep trying older people until they got some. From my experience older people don’t hang up on tele-marketers. They stay on the line because they want someone to talk to.
God Cameron is a hedger “The CHANCES are that Labor MAY get over the line.”
Not released till Sunday.
I know nothing of Mia Handshin’s personal life.
I have bet Paul Kavanagh that no Democrat candidate anywhere will get 5% of the vote. If the Libs are cactus, the Dems are whatever comes after cactus. Patterson’s curse? Pond scum?
839 Glen, this from 5 hours ago:
Grog Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
And now the Libs are creating b*llsh*t about the charter of budget “honesty”, saying the ALP has missed the deadline:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093475.htm
hmmm lets have a look at the charter:
SECT 29 Requests for costing of election commitments
(1) During the caretaker period for a general election:
(a) the Prime Minister may request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Government policies; and
(b) the Leader of the Opposition may, subject to subclause (4), request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Opposition policies.
(2) A request is to:
(a) be in writing; and
(b) outline fully the policy to be costed, giving relevant details; and
(c) state the purpose or intention of the policy.
(3) A request by the Prime Minister is to be given to the responsible Secretaries.
(4) A request by the Leader of the Opposition is to be given to the Prime Minister, who may then agree to refer it to the responsible Secretaries. The responsible Secretaries are not obliged or authorised to take any action in relation to the request unless the Prime Minister has referred the request to them.
(5) The Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition may, at any time, withdraw a request that he or she has made. A withdrawal by the Prime Minister is to be by notice in writing given to the responsible Secretaries. A withdrawal by the Leader of the Opposition is to be by notice in writing given to the Prime Minister, who is to notify the responsible Secretaries of the withdrawal.
Anyone see any mention of deadlines?
And don’t you love how the ALP has to give it to the PM? What a crock.
http://scaleplus.law.gov.au/html/pasteact/2/3115/0/PA000460.htm
Yeah, what yo ho said… and where does this info about galaxy come from?
Dunno Glen, only read about it here…
Pooper scooper man rushes PM:
Any guesses on what the man was trying to catch from the PM?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22769150-2,00.html
Hahhahahahahah LOL!
No doubt the honourable member does get treated with respect.
Glen,
Primaries are:
Coalition 43
Labor 42
Greens 11
That’s all that was said on Lateline.
Mad Cow, I had a look at the betting markets.
Patterson:
Baldwin 1.30
Arneman: 3.00
Robertson is the one that puzzles me! I can’t for the life of me see how Belinda Neale can be favourite to win that seat. Jim Lloyd would have the same advantages of incumbancy and money as Baldwin. Neale is a proven loser and dud campaigner. There must be some local issue in Robertson working against Jim Lloyd.
Belinda Neal shes a bit alright too!
Rod Cameron. Lateline.
Costello.
‘Popular as rat poison, among the electorate’.
Reminder, Rod. Rat poison very popular.
The interesting thing about the Galaxy poll is how little attention they gave it.
HH,
Robertson now more or less encompasses the outer Northern suburbs of Sydney (i.e. the lower Central Coast).
As a result, Workchoices will bite more there and in Dobell than in semi-rural Paterson. There’s probably more migrants or first home buyers who live in Robertson than in Paterson.
HH, that’s probably just a reaction to that daffy Newcastle Herald poll.
What’s Galaxy’s track record with Greens primaries?
Cos “Liberal marginals” mean seats where the coalition is _on average_ 53 – 47 AHEAD. Wher as this poll has Labor 53 – 47 AHEAD which is a huge turn around.
845, If past experience is any guide the Greens rely heavily on people not engaging until the last week and make sure they letter bomb the red-green marginals in the last week.
Lefty E (849) – Galaxy was to be published on dead trees on Sunday IIRC.
ShowsOn
Truly appreciated. I can now go to bed happy.
Swing Lowe @ 837
LOL, Re-read my first post and agree wholeheartedly with my second, I must be sobering up.
And don’t worry Mad Cow, I have faith that BB will fall at the hurdle. Incumbency only counts for so much. The swings in the new suburbs around Thornton (where mortgage levels are high) to BB in the last election are likely to be turned around this time. Not sure if Jim will get across the line but it will be closer than the Newie Herald suggested – JA has firmed a little in the betting odds as well.
Nite all.
Thanks be. I hadn’t realised.
Glen is safely here.
Was becoming rather concerned.
Am I remembering correctly here? Can anyone else remember Michael Kroger on Lateline last Friday nite saying that the second last week of the campaign was THE most important week or all and would decide the election?
I ask because on ‘The World Today’ on RN this arvo he stated that he was “not concerned about this week’s polls as really the FINAL week was the most important of the campaign”.
Well the poll is only significant in that is has us ahead on primaries though narrowly and anyway if the Greens polls 11% with a Labor vote in the high 30% we’d struggle. Nevertheless a good poll is better than a bad poll still 53-47 is a big lead for Labor.
Nevertheless it is good news for Malcolm Turnbull and Mal Brough as they could hang on should the tories lose according to these figures.
ESJ. Have you volunteered for ‘booth duty’ come Sat. 24th?
I’m surprised no-one here has drawn a trend line through the last two Morgan FTF results. 62% Labor last Friday, 56.5% today: that 5.5% loss in a week shows that by next Friday it will be 51-49! Never fear, the Howard strategy is on course for a comfortable win…..
Hyacinth shall have her Christmas at Kirribilli.
SL, Paterson *isnt* semi rural. Yes it does have some rural booths but the bulk of the population is in urbanised. And the town of Medowie (pop 10k or thereabouts) that swung so heavily to Baldwin last time, has some of the more expensive mortgages outside of Sydney. Then we have a large service industry, and who suffers the worst under workchoices…
Maybe Labor shouldnt have run a possible local in Paterson, they could have flown someone up from Melbourne like Combet to rule the locals?
Thanks guys, interesting discussion!
Didn’t John Della Vosca say earlier this week that N.S.W is very tight, and Lindsay is the only seat they have in the bag so far?
Yeah, it’s an odd poll Glen. Will be interesting to see which seats it did – wouldn’t be surprised if Wentworth was one (plus Bass and the other one down there – Braddon??)
BUt 11% for the Greens? – They only got 9% last time in Tasmania!
AG01 – Believe it or not I will be in the country on business!
canberra boy, not even Morgan believed the 62%
Have no doubt about it, WorkChoices was the beginning of the end for Howard. The ACTU analysis is that there were enough union members in marginal seats that voted Coalition in 2004 that, if they changed their vote this election, the 16 required seats would be won. And remember, these union members voted in elections, run by the electoral commission, for the “Union Bosses”Howard likes to malign so much.
By spending the whole campaign bagging “Union Bosses” Howard simply alienates those union members further. Brilliant!
Lost
Hey Gaz (#877) I guess Mr Kroger always believes the next week is the most important week of the campaign, just as John Howard has realised ever since mid-year that the best week to have called the election was last week!
Which of the polls is the most reliable?
What ‘business’ doe’s a historian conduct in the country ESJ? If I may ask?
Yeah, actually, thinking about those numbers – whats the point of pre-releasing figures on an unnamed subset of ‘marginals’?
Unless its the 15 most marginal – its not much use otherwise. Guess we’ll have to wait till Sunday.
Well know how much the punters regard this as a “narrowing” by watching the betting markets move next week. If they move rapidly back to the Coalition (remember, the big bets will come next week), then we know that the ALP may struggle to cross the line. I hope that a decisive 56 or 57 TPP newspoll next week puts this to rest.
889 – well put!
Can we make a drinking game that consists of having a drink everytime a commentator mentions that 20-25% of the voters only make up their minds in the last week?
mad cow,
My mistake – I forgot that Maitland was part of Paterson. But you have to admit the Gloucester and Forster areas are semi-rural?
HH,
That seems a bit odd, as the betting markets extremely high probabilities of Labor gains in Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Lindsay and Parramatta.
And Glen,
I would have to admit I wouldn’t be too unhappy if either Turnbull or Brough were returned (both of them seem likely to win now anyway…). I would gladly exchange Turnbull if a right-wing hack like Dana Vale could lose her seat. Alas, I doubt that will happen though…
Lateline.
Rod being very cautious, for sure.
But clearly knows the deal. Kevin. Sensible, smart. Reading the popular mood.
To my mind, Rudd gets it, Rod gets it, Howard hoofs it.
sinic supposedly they’ve already starting rapidly heading back to the Coalition (according to a comment on the other thread)
WorkersVote,
Unions represent about 1.8 million people. The average turnout in a union ballot is about 20%, 360,000 people who are the rusted on Labor/Green/Trot types by and large.
Even if you apply the Menzies dictum that the Libs need 30% of the union vote, its a maximum of 540,000 people a lot of whom do actually vote Liberal.
Rudd said again today winning 16 seats will be difficult!
I suspect the Coalition has a lot more money than Labor to spend in the marginals.
The anti-Union ads could be biting!
Howard’s pledges on Monday could have swayed some people back into the Liberal camp
Labor ought to remember what happened to Neil Kinnock: don’t declare victory a week early!
Yeah Gloucester, Dungog etc are decidedly inbred.
Foster is fairly touristy and is copping the mortgage-refugees.
The problem with galaxy is we don’t know what the other minor parties got Grog like the National Party, The Democrats and Family First which is why the 11% to the Greens could be a crock but we’ll see if it is released in the Hun tomorrow. Perhaps it included Victorian marginals?? Or perhaps Bennelong was included we’ll never know.
Braddon will be interesting on election night its a shame Furgie looks to be done and dusted in Bass he’s a far better MP than Barker.
Maybe Lateline took notice of ShowsOn’s petition if Hewson was on Lateline what i shame i missed it, oh well they’ll be more to come later.
Am i the only one bored with the election. I’m seriously let’s just see whether we stick with the govt we’ve got or change it, this is giving me the red ass lol!
Meh. I cant even remember what Howard promised Monday – and Im a political tragic.
Oh how I miss Hewson saying “Federwation”.
Bananas for orang-utans.
What the papers say, Tony Delroy: Journo from Weekend Australian reports that the latest newspoll, taken after both party launches this week, has the coalition failing to make any inroads into Labors lead. 2pp 54-46 in Labors favor in the key 18 marginal electorates (unspecified).
Mad Cow the Paterson story is too sad. Where can I buy a Jim Arneman t-shirt if that will help? If you could pick saturation tv of the best labor adverts, which ones would you choose? Paterson was one that I thought Labor would go for. There must be a message that could bite there even at this late stage.
There’s nothing particularly different about the poll. We had a 51/49 in Qld, a 53/47 in NSW and now a 53/47 nationally.
Yet people are unnerved by it?
A small part of me worries about Rudd not matching Howard on the education tax rebate policy. Economic conservatism is all well and good and it might impress the likes of Peter Hartcher, but a lot of punters out there care more about extra money in their pockets.
[Meh. I cant even remember what Howard promised Monday]…..neither can he
Glen,
I think the National party vote was included in the ‘Coalition’ vote.
And LTEP,
Not sure what’s happening with Betfair and Sportsbet, but Sportingbet have moved out today from ALP $1.32/Libs $3.35 to ALP $1.28/Libs $3.60. Portlandbet have also moved out today as well (from Libs $3.30 to Libs $3.50).
Centrebet haven’t moved at all today.
Antony Green on the Cowan TV Ads Thread re Galaxy Poll.
YES!
Thanks for passing this on.
Coalition 43
Labor 42
Greens 11
What would that mean on an election night?
And good point about federation from John Hewson
(Later off we went to see a speech by that John Hewson, half an hour later we were feeling absolution.)
Supposedly The Australian has won the News Award for Best Newspaper.
The only problem with this ‘honour’ is that it’s only open to News Ltd media organisations…
Mad Cow, you’d think Labor would be promoting an ambulance driver as an example of a candidate with a proven record of serving the public.
From the little I’ve seen, Jim Arneman seems like a good bloke.
He did say it but I don’t think it was last Friday. I think it was a few weeks ago. Probably in the Lateline archives somewhere if you can be bothered going thru them.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/archives.htm
Swing Lowe: I’m taking this from the other Cowan ad thread
From Stephen:
“It looks like somebody just put a fair bit of money on the Coalition using betfair and sportsbet. Betfair went from $3.85 to $3.65 and sportsbet from $3.75 to $3.50. Both went down at once!”
Seems Possum’s analysis is going to be right. He calculated that the smallest swings are in labor seats, then Liberal marginal seats with the biggest swings in Liberal safe seats. This why you see Rudd campaigning in Liberal safe seats – they are up for grabs. Which is just about perfect for Labor, maximises their gains.
Glen, dear. 900.
‘Am i the only one bored with the election. I’m seriously let’s just see whether we stick with the govt we’ve got or change it, this is giving me the red ass lol’!
Cordial. Language. Bottie probs.
Don’t stay up too late.
Labor slammed for not submitting all policies for costing
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/16/Labor_has_had_few_policies_costed_PM
It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.
The Prime Minister says he put all his in by Thursday and has suggested Labor is hiding something by leaving out key policies for scrutiny.
Kina, Labor is getting 10% swings to it in Adelaide and Hindmarsh, 2 of its marginals.
Plus don’t forget that crazy Galaxy Lilley poll.
I don’t know, I’d give up 3 seats on 10% margins if Bennelong, Wentworth and Sturt all fell.
LTEP @ 916,
Fair enough, but the Coalition have drifted out to $3.70 on Betfair now. Betfair is probably not the market one should quote when trying to prove sentiment in the betting market, as it is so volatile…
Maybe the South Australia vote is inflating Labor’s national vote lol jj.
WTF were they polling Lilley for? I thought that was rather bizarre.
What’s next? A poll in Griffith? LOL
Have you ever stopped to think Kina, that KR is campaigning in 5-10% seats because he has to?
A everything alright you seem a little flat these days, dont overtire yourself on the campaign trail we will need you for the post mortems!
The Galaxy Poll: an 11% vote for the Greens? They must be polling Wentworth.
Cameron wasn’t pretending when he said it’s still going to be very, very difficult for Labor to win. Perhaps none of you remember – I’m sure you’ve tried to blot the 2004 catastrophe from your minds – but before that election he basically said that Latham wasn’t going to win. He’s a bit more confident now but he knows that the polls are vastly unreliable and Labor’s supposed lead will disappear come voting day.
I guess cos Swan lost it in 1996.
Interestingly, Howard hasn’t visited Sturt because it would make it harder for Pyne to win.
Steven, we’ll find out in a week.
Good night all, it’s been fun!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22767858-11949,00.html
Latest Newspoll
920 NGK – covered this earlier, there is no deadline (except one made up by Costello). Apparently they’ll submit them on Monday – the costings have to go THROUGH THE PM (!!!!), so my guess is the ALP doesn’t want Howard to have them until the last possible moment.
It’s a crap system, and if the ALP wins I hope they keep it to bore it up the Libs for not agreeing to the amendments Tanner put forward last year.
That’s not the new one, that’s the state by state breakdown published Friday.
Apparently there is a new marginal seat one that will go online in 30 – 60 minutes.
Ed @905, as I said, all they need to do is a bit of name recognition for Jim so he is associated with the positives (health, education, broadband etc). And some targeted leaflets that deal directly with the points of Baldwin’s pamphlets (now he’s up to a 9 point plan). And so much of what he says is flimsy and can be easily rebuked.
If anyone has any say with head office.. please bite them for me
One slight correction. I saw earlier on prime an ad that went like this.
(no sound apart from the sound effects)
Photo of Rudd with text to do with ‘education revolution’ tick mark sound effect “ding”
Photo of Howard “He hasn’t” (or something like that) failure sound effect (borrowed from price is right I think).
Another round like this to do with broadband.
Finally “Rudd is committed to staying the full term”
Cut to Howard Photo. Text: “he isn’t”
Fantastic ad. Was it pitched at Paterson? Could be. I’m not sure how these things work – if the ad is localised to one transmitter (newcastle/lower hunter area) or if its over the whole Prime network.
Ooops. Old News poll. Time for bed.
Gotcha Shaboh
933
I see thanks Grog.
I notice even Gauleiter Shanahan has turned against ze Fuhrer in ze latest Volkische Beobachter. With Standartenführer Bolt gone over to the ozer side, there’s only ze Devine family und Herr Akerman shtill loyal.
Re: 844, constant lurker Says:
For the record, I live in Melbourne, and my wife has received one personally addressed letter from Lindsay Tanner. We have had only one unaddressed flier (Adam Brandt, Greens). Most interestingly, I found one brochure/how-to-vote card on the ground in my street for the Liberal contender, Andrea Del Ciotto, but we never received one in our letterbox. I guess they ran out of them before they got to our house.
I don’t think that is the latest newspoll. would like proper confirmation
Footnote: Paterson is one of those places that has not and will never be reached by cable, has a lot of lines too long for adsl, and also is unsuited to the wimax network that coonan thinks is great.
“It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”
Probably nonsense, but if so: good. That system is a friggin joke. We have a highly politicised public service, especially treasury.
A massive Treasury bureacracy makes Costello look good, then the opposition has to do everything off their own bat. Bugger it. Its a cook up job.
In any case, the article makes it plain Howard hasnt either.
Ok. correction has already made. glad to see. ta
Mad Cow: that ad has been on TV in Sydney tonight too!
Good night mate, I’ll be sending my best to Jim!
ShowsOn @ 934,
I think the Galaxy poll is being published in the Sunday papers. Polls don’t tend to get published in Saturday papers, as less people read the paper on Saturday…
Thanks Paul K,
Kroger is so annoyingly arrogant and sneering, (mate of PCs of course)- just great to catch him out. He also had the audacity to say today that this new regional investment funding targeting Liberal seats controversy was not nearly as important to THIS election as Roz Kelly’s whiteboard which he said everyone still remembers. Believe it! He’s probably crawled back under his rock till his next outing by now anyway.
SO old…like Howard!
MIDNIGHT.
One week to go.
Night All.
kina @918, If you’re right, then Labor should have gone for the jugular with Paterson.
On the “what can Kevin do to lose” angle, assuming there are no untimely deaths of key political or constitutional figures, I can’t think of anything much KR could do to lose. Except have a huge (independently verified) hole in the costings.
Grog @ 857, what you’re saying doesn’t quite ring true to me. There must be some deadline for submitting policies for costing, otherwise people could put them in at 5pm the day before the election. Which wouldn’t make sense, because then the Sir Humphreys wouldn’t have time to get the work done.
Maybe the deadline is written down somewhere other than the charter (eg published by Treasury when each election gets called)? Just guessing, but I reckon there must be some kind of deadline.
The AC Nielsen polls for 1998, 2001, 2004 show in the last 2-3 polls Labor being fairly stable on primary and they consistently over estimated the LNP by a few points at each election.
Hopefully Labor is promoting their broadband policy to pick up some easy votes.
This is just a standard issue thing that happens every election. It is like the debate about the rules of the debate. Labor will hand over all their policies by Tues or Wednesday, and treasury will release the costings about 4 PM on Friday.
The Coalition will do EXACTLY the same thing.
Hi no. 942
“It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”
whats the source for this please? just curious
There is a marginal seat Newspoll on Saturday, and a marginal seat Galaxy on Sunday.
Here was the tip off regarding the Newspoll:
I have better things to do with my energies at present than waste them on wankers like you ESJ. I had three press releases get a run in our local rags this week. We are smiting hip and thigh our local fool of a Liberal and his bogus “hoons” campaign. We are expecting a 10% swing and the Liberals won’t trouble this seat again for a decade.
ShowsOn @ 953,
You’re probably right. I vaguely remember Treasury costings being pretty last minute in the past.
Which probably means they can’t affect things too much in an election as one-sided as this one.
Night Dr.
Woof! Woof!
.
.
The source is the Honourable John Winston Howard. The PM claims Labor has missed a deadline. Labor says Howard is making up the deadline and will have the figures submitted in time.
#956 apropos of what exactly there Adam? I trust it wasn`t in reference to (what I considered a fairly genial) goodnightall from ESJ.
Yeah seriously it is a non-issue. And Labor are being pretty prudent going through Access Economics on everything first anyway.
For example, access costed one of Labor’s budget reply policies and it turned out they had underestimated some savings to the tune of 400 $million.
Anybody seen the possible PM in waiting Costello lately?
Maybe he is on holidays or something.
Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.
Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.
Karl,
Those primaries must be wrong, thats only 2% from the 2pp!!
Mad Cow
We had a generic Labor ad in Prime News, from the Taree transmitter, which then ended with an image of James Langley (ALP Lyne). Of course there were once again ~10 Baldwin Ads to counter this modest effort. If we have TV ads for Labor in Lyne but none in Paterson – what on earth is happening/ Has the Paterson campaign been given any personnel from Sussex ST/ Who is running the campaign?
[Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.
Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.]
Excellent, thanks for the info.
I HOPE they polled Sturt this time. They didn’t do it last time though.
ShowsOn… I take it you’ve assisted Ms Hanshin in Sturt?
thanks Paul K. realise i must have missed an earlier comment and saw story…so its really a non story.
i am just hanging around to confirm whether Karl is correct saying that labor has “increased” its primary vote in marginals trom 47 to 52, with 2pp 54-46…
and as for the galaxy stuff….these polls are marketing exercises for the pollsters, surely…so they are cutting the same data with slightly different interpretations to create effect, no?
Midnorthcoast, one hopes that people are getting annoyed at Baldwin ads by now.
I guess it does say one thing. The Liberals at least think Paterson is on the edge.
Yes. Well, not directly. I’ve done letter-boxing at the North East end of the electorate. It is an area that takes in the state seat of Torrens that swung 10% to Labor at the 2006 state election.
I’ll be doing more letterboxing next week, and handing out how to votes on election day.
Pretty sure that one of the commentators earlier in the week said that this upcoming Galaxy poll would be of 22 Liberal marginal seats.
I sure hope so Mad Cow – I hope it’s party money rather than Big Bob’s
Mad Cow,
While we wait for Galaxy where are you based? I am in Maitland just in Hunter, so I cant vote for Jim. One Baldwin truck on New England Highway in East Maitland, nothing from Arneman anywhere!! I agree with you, I dont know where the ALP stuff is. There are plenty of votes to be won in East Maitland, Metford, Tenambit, Lorn and Largs which have been brought back into Paterson.
Good luck ShowsOn. At least you’ll know you’ve done your part.
Anyhow, all these polls are rather unintuitive. Only 1 week to go til we know for sure.
Disgusting line tonight from Vaile, re auditor-general: …”that unelected individual …” That’s red-neck copper speak. Pig.
Maybe endorsements in MSM will go something like this:
THE Howard Government does not deserve to be re-elected. During the campaign and its 11 years in office it has shown itself to be self-serving in the extreme.
It has betrayed the trust of the Australian people. It has betrayed the notion of a fair go – for workers, for refugees, for caring. The Howard Government has changed Australia from a fair society into one that resembles the jungle – red in tooth and claw.
It is now time to redress the balance. Every voter has a choice and this newspaper (insert name) believes the present Prime Minister has served us well. Thank you, Mr Howard. The time has come to move aside, to swallow your pride.
oh.,bugger it, but you get the drift.
I reckon they will try to sit on the fence, but won’t totally endorse Howard.
Journos now find reporting on the campaign boring and have moved onto speculating on the transition
Softly, softly Labor plans for a win
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/strongmichelle-grattanstrong/2007/11/16/1194766965910.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I hear the Newspoll marginals are showing an extremely low “other party” vote of around 5% which gives credence to ALP primary 52 and TPP 54.
Well yeah, I’m at the point where I’m just fascinated about what the final result will be.
I do think Rudd will win, but it could be anything from 80 -95 seats.
Anything above 76 is a bonus in my book.
BenC, Medowie. Where the real estate agents sell 2 bedroom houses on residential lots for 240K as “ideal first home”.
ShowsOn, I’ll be happy with 74, since I believe they’ll be able to make a minority government with that number. 14 seats isn’t really too bad really.
LOL, good to see you calling it Antony
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/its-bennelong-time-since-a-pm-was-rolled/2007/11/16/1194766965904.html
Who knows what will happen if they end up with 74
We could end up back at the polls in January.
964
BenC Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 12:16 am
Karl,
Those primaries must be wrong, thats only 2% from the 2pp!!
Hi Ben,
I don’t believe it either, that’s why I waited for the Adelaide broadcast before posting the comment. Madden was quite clear, but he may have mis-spoke. He said:
“Labor has increased its lead by 5% from 47 to 52%”
Then he said that would give Labor a 54-46% 2pp overall.
I’ve got these comments on both my file cards; one card each for the Melbourne and Adelaide broadcasts.
Sorry about the delay posting. I promised I would do the dishes before going to bed… don’t ask.
@ 979 mad cow Says:
Aren’t there al lot of god-botherers congregated (so to speak) around that area?
Albert, you wouldn’t think so if you saw the state of the churches here
What Rod Cameron really thinks:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-week-where-anything-can-happen/2007/11/16/1194766959450.html
No worries Karl,
Just checking to see. I love those primary and 2pp numbers in the marginals. Just waiting for the official numbers and seats.
Should be up on The Oz homepage in 20 minutes.
Lovely: http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/16/rg_spooner_wideweb__470×408,0.jpg
74-74-2 would make life absolutely fascinating for dispassionate observers. Every House vote could be the Government’s last.
Not much fun for the partisans, though.
And definitely not going to happen this time!
These are the newspoll marginals I think. It is buried in the GG web site:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
[These are the newspoll marginals I think. It is buried in the GG web site:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
Yes that’s it, great find.
Thanks Midnorthcoast,
No seat details though. Assuming you read the most 18 marginal up the pendulum.
It’s gone now…
Just before I go. Also posted on next thread.
What the Papers Say. Delroy, ABC.
Extended chat with Laura Tingle, the Fin.
Game, set, match. Wrap comment. Laura. ‘At this stage, Kevin Rudd will be PM in a week’.
The GG.
Labor extends lead.
Kevin Andrews orders urgent review of all 450 in immigration detention.
13 released thus far.
PS I might hang out for whatever is being promised, poll wise.
No, just an extra ‘]’ on the end of the link
I think this is very bad for the coalition because of this:
“The swings in the marginal seats in the four states — between 6.7 per cent in NSW and 8.6 per cent in Queensland.
“NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia”
So the LOWEST swing is 6.7%. Remeber, Rudd only needs an average of 4.3% to win the election, and the LOWEST he is getting is 6.7 in the state with the highest population!
Dario I still get it:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
Nice work Midnorthcoast!
Liked this bit: “the Coalition would lose between 18 and 28 seats” if swings held etc.
Newspoll 18 Liberal marginals
47/42 Primaries
54/46 2PP
Looks like nup.
Fun day!!
Night all.
It looks eerily similar to what we’re getting in the National polls.
Correction: 18 most marginal seats (Lab & Lib I assume)
No Dario
“the Government’s 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.”
Dario,
The article says “Governments 18 most marginal seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.” Must be Lib + Nat.
The Coalition’s 18 most marginal seats, taking into account redistributions are:
Kingston
Bonner
Wakefield
Makin
Braddon
Parramatta (Held by Labor, but now a notionally Liberal seat)
Hasluck
Stirling
Wentworth
Bass
Solomon
Moreton
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Bennelong
Dobell
Deakin
McMillan
My bad. I forgot to take out the 2 WA and 2 Tas and 1 N.T. seats. So you have to add:
Corangamite
Boothby
Page
Blair
La Trobe
The average margin in those 18 seats is about 2.5% yes?
So that makes the 54/46 look like a 6.5% swing, at least within that group?
It doesn’t include Tas/WA / NT So polling has occurred in
Corrangamite
Boothby
Page
Blair
LaTrobe
but not:
Braddon
Bass
Hasluck
Soloman
Stirling