Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,088 Comments
its still pretty good, although 62 was better
….
The last Morgan was an outlier – we’d been told to expect perhaps 5% of the polls, for whatever reason, wouldn’t fit the data at all. Consequently, Morgan was very quiet about the whole thing – probably embarrassed at the results. This one is more meaty, and within the MOE of today’s AC Nielsen poll as well. It seems that the final count of 55-45 is looking quite firm.
What’s odd is how many people refuse to believe any of this psephological wealth. I just had lunch with two fairly left-wing friends of mine (who live in Kingsford-Smith) and they vehmently argued that the election will go on all night, that it’ll come down to postal ballots, etc. None of this is in any way suggested by the data, but that’s how the electorate (at least in this tiny sampling) is feeling right now – as if a Labor win were still going to slip away at the very last minute…
I find it a little wierd that they’re not comparing the figures to the last face-to-face but instead to the phone poll. Possibly because they’re too embarassed to talk about the huge drops in Labor primary and 2PP that would arise from that ‘just slightly implausible’ 62-38.
Did the Morgans ever show up close to 56% during the ‘04 campaign?
A great set of numbers….confirming the trend, the campaign, the month, the year.
Is this the Narrowing?
IT’S THE NARROWING!!!!
Funny how there’s no poll outlier that has the Coalition in a good position. This demonstrates, to me at least, that the vote is leaning towards the higher end of the MoE.
On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ’swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%.
Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?
Of course the polls will tighten once the real election gets under way…
Once people start focussing…
and stop sleepwalking
And joking
You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…
Hey LTEP this proves your point. Add this poll to all of the other polls showing Labor a mile in front and Rudd as preferred PM by a good margin plus his job satisfaction way above Howards, along with the betting markets shortening Labor’s odds of winning, you can only reach one conclusion, ‘the Libs are bound to win now’. Now let’s see where did I go wrong with that analysis? Hmm….
Yes Pancho this democracy thingy is a sickening joke isn’t it? Voters are so ungrateful….
#12
The point is not all people are prospering.
With the govt’s big bloopers and Labor’s well received launch, 54-46 looks like it’ll be as good as it gets for the govt. If there’s any change in the final week, it’s more likely to be to Labor, and thus enable a night of carnage on 24 Nov.
I hope Howard keeps running this line in the last week. It is an extremely arrogant statement, it basically says “you may of decided your vote, but you are wrong”.
What have the Libs done for us lately?
Right on Pancho
I love wearing black!!
If the media run hard over the weekend with the rorts scandal + Abbott’s helpful WorkChoices admission, the next poll taken should be a doozie. This Morgan, and the next one or two polls, should complete the deflation of the Coalition’s spirits.
Will JWH try and break the “toy” before handing it back?
Looks like Morgan will release two ph polls on Sun, one a nationwide one, and the other a marginal seats poll. Should be interesting.
I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence. I’ll be happy to be proved wrong.
Now again, have we seen a 56% Morgan for the ALP during a campaign over the past few elections?
NGK, working families have never been better off…sorry, I’ll stop being a moron.
Yes Darryl.. I think people underestimate the Joker effect. In this case, the joker is Tony Abbott
Ta tah for now! off to do pre polling in Bairnsdale… The sort of boring job Abbott would like everyone to have, & since it’s voluntary, he’d also approve of its low impact on wages.
It will be interesting to see what the final election result is, compared to these polls.
Good luck Gippslander
The polls look like they are flatening out.
Well, certainly not for 9 months straight before an election we havent. Until now…
LTEP: It’s almost as if you want a Coalition victory. Your negativity and criticism of Rudd is getting very tiresome.
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Umm… Pancho unless you live overseas it’s gunna be your funeral too mate.
I love this quote from George Megalogenis last night on 7:30 Report.
WHERE IS TIP??????????????
has his wife reported him missing?
WHERE IS HE?
A major new health annoucement from Rudd:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093065.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Harry H: Tip is furiously looking for a black hole in Labor’s costings, or more likely fabricating one LOL
HH: I bet he is studying the Treasury’s report about costings so far and he sees he is f*cked. What’s the bet Rudd is under or just on the ball, and Cossie is over. Surely he will have the spin doctors trying to work out what to say.
And by my reconing, because there’s an advertising blackout from Wednesday, the Coalition can use the only weapon it has left – scary advertisements about “UNION BOSSES!!!!” for 5 more days.
However, Labor, by using its money to purchase non-broadcast advertising (i.e. Tony Abbott) will be able to have stories in the media right up until 24 November.
Oh no Brian L!!!
Mark – heartland actually, border of Grayndler and Sydney. Pay no attention to me…
Where’s Glen? How does this poll grab ya, baby? And what reason are you going to throw up as to why it won’t apply in 8 days time?
Howard Hater, I could equally say some people’s cheerleading for Rudd is tiresome. I’m not party hack, not particularly fond of Rudd but will still vote Labor. I know plenty of people who feel the same way. My partner for one. The trick is we dislike Howard even more.
#32 Peter Hartcher in today’s SMH (it’ll make you feel better LETP) goes one step further, with his “chilling steadiness and deadly intent”. I just read the article twice, felt like watching the favourite scene from your por..sorry
Looks to me as thought the Brian Burke scandal has finally sunk in, they told me it would take a while to permeate.
Peter Hartcher’s comment in today’s SMH said it all really,
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howards-instinct-let-him-down/2007/11/15/1194766868905.html
Howard needs to turn things around his huffing and puffing all year with election hand outs, tax cuts, smearing, govt advertising… this big bad wolf didn’t blow down Rudd’s house of bricks. The polls have flat lined for 12 months and will do so for another 7 days – given the recent scandals of Abbott and Pork Barrelling.
to you Lib supporters, you’ll go through the stages of denial, anger, frustration – and look into your hearts and ask yourselves under conditions as good as this “why do we face annihilation and our dear leader losing his seat”.
The answer, you need more Petro Giorgio’s and less Kevin Andrews…
Who’s “they”?
Given Morgan’s widely touted bias to Labor of about 2.5% that 56.5 becomes 54 and lines up with the Neilson. On both these findings it would seem that last weekend and through the LNP launch things solidified a very slightly for Howard. Nothing since then has gone right.
So, this weekend’s polls could be interesting. On the other hand previous experience would suggest final week histeria usually gets ignored (unless you’re up a gum tree and your name is Latham). So 54%ish on election day sounds the best bet.
Remembering always that 54% is huge, more than Hawkie in ‘83. 55% is pretty much unimaginable in modern times. The only comparison would be Jack Curtin in ‘43. 53% or 52.5% and a workable but unspectacular majority is still a most likely outcome.
As consistent as the poles … P. Jaques 100 n.o. in Hobart
LTEP, I have to agree with Howard Hater. You seem to be a bit of a broken record. The worth of forums like this is to pick up fresh perspectives on politics and share information that might offer new ways of looking at things.
You, on the other hand, are doing a very good impersonation of the Lieutenant Corporal Jack Jones character in the long-running British TV comedy ‘Dad’s Army’, who ran around waving his hands in the air shouting “We’re Doomed!”
You need a new angle mate. It’s getting a bit boring.
I thought that was the Swiss?
THe Libs would be stupid to run with it as it’s also hit the WA Libs via Anthony Fels and Noel Chricton-Brown (sp)’
Also there are internal liberal infighting in WA over the this as well.
Archer, Reynolds and McDonald have resigned from the ALP – LIb attack ads targetting them are of no use.
Its not over yet?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/one-week-from-oblivion/2007/11/15/1194766869599.html
One week left to save PM’s political skin
“JOHN HOWARD has a week to engineer a dramatic shift in voter sentiment or suffer defeat at the ballot box,”
Hmmmmm. Child health checks or stinking highway sh!thouses. You have to admit, that Howard guy is a really clever campaigner.
Mr Denmore – i assume that was a joke right…. almost everyone on this site is a broken record… you all pat yourselves on the back about being great psephologists, but there is barely anything by way of discussion that would qualify for that description…. just a great big backslapping exercise.
Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?
So kids are to get two taxpayer funded laptops?
Is the ALP in the pocket of Dell Computers?
What a farce of a policy. What a farce of a Party.
Does anybody east of Kalgoolie give a damn about Brian Burke, Reynolds and McDonald…? I mean puhleeaazzze…
I do like the liberal ad when Kevin Reynolds says..f@#k off!!!…. Sums it up really.
Ciao Bella!!!
C’ome stai?
Hey Bella, I have a desktop and a laptop. I use them in different places for different things. Both are helpful.
Isabella, my dear this aint about Rudd, It is about and will always be about Howard.
As long as he is nice (and not too much of a “prissy Pr!ck’, as Alan Ramsay calls him) solid and boring.. that’s all.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3777/
Morgan did have a 56 per cent poll to Labor during the 2004 election campaign. However, Morgan did fluctuate a fair bit over the whole period, and that was the high point.
Labor is in the box seat, but they can’t count their chickens until the polls close, because Howard cannot be underestimated.
New campaign methed? Speak in riddles.
Will,
re quote:
“…we haven’t seen polling this steady and with deadly intent since the ‘96 election.”
no quibble other than i think it was actually said by Peter Hartcher,to be fair to him.
Hartcher is by far and away the most astute political economist journalist covering the campaign, although Mega George is pretty close too
they leave the pondorous, self-important Paul “Good Morning, Barry” Kelly for dead
And its instructive now to revisit hartcher’s quarterly review, “bi-polar nation” which came out in the first quarter of the year…
his conclusion then was that it was going to be virtually impossible for rudd to defeat howard..
it wasn’t said in any partisan way, just how he saw the political strengths of howard v rudd at that stage, and I don’t think he was out of synch with most observers, even those who may have been “left”
(and btw, wasn’t that a vital question for chris uhlman to be banging on about this morning?)
if labor wins then rudd’s “same, same but different” year-long campaign will be seen to have been both a strategically and tactically brilliant
who could have imagined he’d ultimately wedge howard over economic responsibility?
for those with basic economics and/or who read ross gittins, howard has always been a shameless master of the bribe, and was never an economic manager’s asswipe…just ask peter costello, ken henry and glenn stevens…
so there is a bit of poetic justice to all of this…
lets just hope it all still hangs together as the last week proceeds
and for good measure, here’s Nick, just to remind us of the real definition of hubris and why johnboy is in such deep deep do-dah:
Link to minchin comments on IR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiUtvnwjkTw
10pse 52
Thanks for your constructive criticism. Now all that is needed is your constructive contribution to what the latest series of polls actually mean.
“Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?”
So they can have one at home, brainstrust.
Try to keep up.
Issie, Issie, Issie, he didn’t say a laptop for every kid at school. It was a PC for every kid in year 9 – 12. Also the education rebate is not just for computers, but it can be.
I love how the Tories love to leave out the details that count. Obviously there is a bad poll around, because the trolls are out.
Then don’t read it Mr Denmore. I post in response to other peoples’ posts or questions and will continue to do so unless the owner of the blog asks me to stop. Funnily enough I don’t need the approval of other readers in order to post my opinions. Nor does anyone need my approval to constantly post their predictions that Labor will cruise to victory.
GetReal: I was just going by what was on the 7:30 Report’s page. If I’m wrong, then it is the ABC that is wrong. But still, the quote has some punch.
7
Lionel Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
“On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ’swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%. Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?”
…
I reckon the high 55’s – 55.7% but I’ve no data to support this….:)
It’s tracking exactly as it has been for many weeks. If Kevin Rudd doesn’t win this election it would be extremely surprising. He’s done about as much as one can do.
It would only be inertia and fear that made voters stay with the retiree.
Lose the election please why do you want to Lose the election?
Please explain?
I think LTEP is just taking a little longer to come to the conclusion that it’s over (barring major stuff ups) than the rest of us. Perfectly understandable considering the history of the last three elections. Only last weekend there was a lot more hand wringing here than there is at the moment.
LTEP, at 64, but we all know your opinion. You express the same opinion in every single post. You’re a bit like Denis Shanahan. Whatever happens in the real world, in Denis’ universe John Howard is just a gnat’s nosehair away from a brilliant, come-from-behind victory. In your universe, ALL of the polls have got it completely wrong and Labor is going to get poleaxed at the final hurdle.
If it makes you feel better seeing the world that way (ie: being pathologically pessimistic so you can be pleasantly surprised when events turn out otherwise), go for your life. But it’s very, very boring. And adds nothing to the debate.
Pancho Says:
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Pancho relax, we are not throwing away 11 years of prosperity. After all the Chinese government and the management of BHPB will still be in place, so in the short term our prosperity is assured!
Fair point socks.
John Hunt at 69, I think LTEP is like one of those tiresome party-pooping doomsayers at the pub who grimly warns fellow supporters of his favourite sporting team that the team will choke, all the while secretly hoping that his long odds bet comes in so that he can look like a hero. Call it a pathetic grab for attention.
I don’t express the same opinion in every post. Many of my posts aren’t related to predictions, but more on policy (eg. teachers’ pay, WorkChioces, proportional representation in the Senate).
When someone asks if the Coalition can come back from here I provide my advice… which funnily enough… is usually the same. It’s possible but not probable.
In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible. I’m just putting it out there.
Some people just hate to have someone putting out an opinion that contradicts the group-think.
As the analysts said last night on the 7:30 Report, now is the time that Rudd has to look more confident (but not too confident) and run the message home. That will cement the idea he is the leader of choice. Rudd’s launch made him the ‘leader of the future’ by tying things to computers and high-speed broadband. Rudd just announced a health policy for kids entering school, that’s health and education. What does Howard promise, highway sh*tters! That’s the difference at the moment.
Howard has no rabbits left, Rudd hasn’t even had to use any of his.
Mr Denmore
it was actually ‘lance corporal” not Lieutenant Corporal
anyway “who do you think you are kidding mr hitler” etc
It’s an interesting phenomenon: on one side you have outright denial and on the other abject paranoia. All caused by the same events – the last 3 elections. It affects people in varying degrees.
It’s also very understandable.
Yeah, sorry, but I’m losing my patience with the Gloomtrolls, and absolutely inane LNP commentators here.
Why cant we have some top notch RWDBs here, like Andrew Norton? That guy will give you a run for your money on any topic.
As for Gloomtrolls, can I just note this is a psephology site: if you have no regard *whatsoever* for consistent opinion polling over some 9 months, and prefer to feel things ‘in yer waters’, what exactly is the attraction to this blog?
Ah, nevermind. Id best log out for a few hours. Just got hit with the grumpy stick.
Socrates: Pancho was joking, he/she started the joke by saying “Once people start focusing…”. That’s the problem about forums, unless you read the whole thing you miss the intent.
I think LTEP can be a little bit negative, but doesn’t deserve some of the comments that have been written above. I think its good to have a bit of a balanced view, even though I’m of the personal view that the election is over as a contest.
Just on the matter of laptops…I was talking to a teacher friend of mine last night. She made the point that schools are going to have to put on extra security if there’s a computer for every kid in years 9-12. She says computer theft is already rife at schools, as is “laptop-snatching” from private school kids travelling on public trnasport to school.
On the other hand, if every kid has access to a computer, they may feel less inclined to steal!
And she did agree that computers for all senior kids in government schools was a fantastic idea. At the moment, schools are fored to buy half their computers from what they can raise from parents in fees and fetes.
“Sorry mate not this time”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptzRgfYKoLk
Another good ALP Ad.
I’d say Rudd needs to undo some of the damage caused by the FUD put out by the Liberal party. And once again, what are they gonna do about Paterson? And are there other seats like Paterson that they are (seemingly) giving up on?
Roberte
The highest TPP in history is 56.5
Labor in office?
First heart breaking jobs to ok the pulp mill and the dredging of Port Philip Bay.
Next to wiggle out of the promised tax cuts.
For Laborites, this next nine days will be as good as it gets for ten years.
Enjoy!
(Unless the Greens control the Senate promptly which will make everything easier for you.)
LTEP 75
But your name says “Lose the election please”
What does it mean other than what it says?
Then you go on to say:
“In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible.”
Well this is a site discussing polls. So if you don’t believe in polls it is hardly the best place to hang around.
Also if someone has a “good shot” at something it is a lot better than “not probably but possible”. Anything is possible but not all things are probable. Having a good shot is close to 50/50.
Maybe there is some confusion due language and meaning of words. This makes the communication and understanding a lot more difficult.
LTEP, face it. You’re a pooper.
Hi Will,
no problemo – was just correcting the record but your point is well made, as was hartchers:
the polls are definitely displaying deadly intent and are certainly not “jocular” for johnny….wonder when some journo is going to revisit that question: ie, mr howard, do you still think the public are having some joke at your expense…?
frankly, before this 6 week marathon i would have been content with 80 plus seats, but now i’m just getting tired and grumpy – just like john – so I’m thinking more along 90 plus! he really has worn out his welcome in every sense of the term.
Isabella@53
To mangle a metaphor – What you don’t know may not kill you, but probably makes you look silly.
You see the Federal Government (thats Rattus Rattus and crew) has already dumped the money for a school network and computers and internet access. The money is of course conditional, and is confined to its budget. In a sense I’m sure a few people are a bit perplexed, although the RuddStar has promised a computer per child, rather than the current computers for the school.
But you see the money is Federal and they basically control it – so you tell me in whom’s pocket is Rattus Rattus?
Probability and possibility are completely different. It can be a possible for x to happen but altogether improbable. For example it’s possible you’ll flip a coin and get heads 100 times in a row, but highly improbable.
My conclusion is… it’s possible the Coalition could win this election if everything goes their way (eg. the polling narrows 1-2% and the swings happen just right). However this is not probable. Again, it’s also possible the polls are all wrong but not probable.
Many people have asked me over the past week or two whether I still think the Coalition will win. I haven’t answered because I don’t know. But I won’t go as far as some to say it’s in the bag.
Last post on the matter.
The key question with LTEP; is the glass half full or half empty. If he is a half empty sort of guy then he has the same problem such people always have, people just get fed up with it.
Pancho,
Again to be fair, I have no more sympathy for the current NSW State Labor govt on economic management than I have for Howard. Both have been the beneficiary of fortunate circumstances, and neither have planned for the future.
Constant Lurker 86
You seem to be able to predict the future like Nostradamus.
How come you did not see this armageddon coming and warn all righteous people?
LTEP, maybe you need to change name to –
Lose the election? Please! (say it Joan Rivers style)
I wonder if Jaques will allow me to borrow his bat come Nov 24? He just made another century. There is something about his bat I like. *evil grin*
Socrates, I think you are being more than fair to both bunches of clowns. A lot more is at stake in Howard’s slumber than Iemma and Costa’s in my opinion.
estmiated TPP for ALP in 1943 is 60%.
It was Curtins for the UAP
Dinndale Pirahna @ 88
Talking of “poop”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22769105-5001021,00.html
Say, hello gusface at 77.
Thought you were locked up for the duration?
Did Peter Russo get you out?
OK…. but on the last thread at 12:58pm you said this:
Sounds like it’s possible that neither side will win.
Please welcome the next Prime Minister of Australia, Bob Brown.
People ,enough with the ad-hominem attacks.
LTEP, please try to be more positive. Negativity never helps people understand. There are always positive aspects, even at the worst of times (which I doubt this election will be for the ALP). Consider 2004, for example. The ALP gained Adelaide and Parramatta. They lost the election, but Howard set the seeds for his own destruction when he gained his majority in the Senate.
To paraphrase Command and Conquer – “Howard has written his own obituary”. And it’s name is WorkChoices.
New Labor ad… sorry if this has been posted before
http://www.youtube.com/australianlabor
Will and Pancho
Sorry, I completely misunderstood. Too obsessed with the demise of the rodent.
LTEP, I am an independent and do not belong to nor support any political party, but when anyone asks me who is going to win the election, I have to say Labor on the evidence.
It would be very hard for Labor to lose it.
There are a good five seats in NSW, most likely two in Tasmania, at least three in South Australia, maybe one or two in WA, four or five in Vic and surely at least six in Queensland.
My bet still is Labor 85, Coalition 62 and 3 independents (one surprise one).
Why do you think the betting odds are so much in Labor’s favour?
Heres an interesting exercise.
I plugged in the state sings from today’s Morgan breakdown into the calculator (where no swing was given I used the national swing). I then subtracted possum’s 4% MOE to give the coalition the best possible result within MOE. The result was a Coalition majority (75 seats) in a hung parliament (Labor had 73 seats).
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=0.9&vic=6&qld=6.1&wa=1.4&sa=3.4&tas=2.8&act=2.8&nt=2.8&retiringfactor=1
Of course the chances of this happening are practically non existent.
Yes Ashley, I revoke that statement. I think it’s pretty clear, objectively, that a Labor loss is possible but not probable. Many here though refuse to admit it’s even possible Labor could lose.
Still… better than not admitting the Coalition could possibly lose (steven_kaye et al.)
More good news from Morgan. As some journo said earlier this week, if the polls turn out to be wrong and Howard wins, then all polling companies may as well shut their doors as there won’t be any customers looking for their ’skills’.
This one just reinforces that the “real” support out there is split 55/45 in favor of the ALP.
Must be hard for the Rattus Crew when they haven’t even had any outlying polls really going their way.
I would agree with a previous poster that if thats the case, I’d expect that the result would be on the higher side of the MOE for the ALP. (Yayyyyyy! )
Any of the stats heads out there know if there is any way to test that proposition from the available data??
Dont know if the glass half full/empty is the right analogy for LTEP. I think whats happening is he’s calling a glass that is 95% full (the statistical probability of an ALP win) half empty. When that happens you’re getting into issues of personality. But thats fine, i’ve got friends who are the same way.
Sorry, should be swing and Newspoll
G’day y’all I was interstate and am back now. Any of my fellow Libs out there?
According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of foreign land
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
His barren Princess assigned will lance Joward’s heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
At the risk of becoming like the MSM I will recycle something I posted at teh end of teh previous thread:
While I respect and understand people’s caution, I think Labor can be legitimately confident by now. Australians don’t like hubris and Rudd and all other candidates should be humble and careful, but really lets look at the week ahead:
- Monday should see a newspoll published with the reaction to Rudd’s launch
- Haneef’s appeal will be in court, with an attorney general in caretaker mode unable to gag any embarrassing revelations
- Abbott’s remarks will haunt him all week, because they are on film, and relate to a key element of the Coalition’s strategy
- banks will gradually pass on the interest rate rise, just to remind people
- Howard has no more money to spend without looking inflationary
- by Friday it will be too late
Here are my views of Howard’s best options to turn around the last week:
- publish evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard
- invent evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard (that can’t be disproven till after Saturday)
- black out reporting of the count and have young liberals stuff the ballot boxes
- military coup
John of Melbourne… sounds like you were further than interstate! You been in Texas y’all?
Alex McDonnel, that would only be the case if each state was at the bottom end of the MoE. Not a high probability (see my coin toss analogy).
Very good Sudoka Killer! You could write an entire book.
LTEP 107
Of course a Labor loss is possible.
It’s also possible that Ivan Milat will be elected as the next Pope. You never know.
Only a handful of commentators have called the election result to date, most are still hedging their bets, so the attacks on LTEP on here are a bit much IMO.
It’s not over yet. Eight more days and you can all rant about how right you were about the ALP p*ssing it in.
Until then LTEP and others have every right to question the dominant thinking in here that it’s in the bag.
LTeP no I was in WA. Very hot in WA.
Pancho, re#12. So we make you sick —— Good!
I’ll tell you what makes us sick. Abbott saying that if your employer takes away all your conditions, go out and get another job.
What if all employers start taking away your conditions? What kind of an idiot employer is not going to take away your conditions when there is more money in it for him.
Abbott has had a blinder this campaign LOL. The worst performing minister in a political campaign that I have ever seen.
Abbott you are out of touch!
In the interests of balance, if the MOE is off in the other direction the outcome would be:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=10&qld=10&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
Socrates – to quote a saying from some US pollie apparently, ‘Rudd would have to be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl’ to lose this election.
LTEP 107
Lose the argument but please win the election, right?
The reality is that these are the best polling figures for Labor in a long long time. And they might not be repeated for quite a while. I wonder how you manage to get through a campaign if and when it is a close election…the mind boggles…
The betting markets are shortening rapidly on Labor… pretty much everyone is now between 1.28 and 1.30.
The trifecta of the ACN, the rorts, and the Abbott have really taken the wind out of the sails.
Grants corruption and Abbott’s mess will ensure Howard regains no futher ground. AND I believe Rudd will pick up a little more ground over the next few days.
The trend is with Labor, the undecideds will pick it up and, fed-up soft Liberal voters will jump to Labor or to ‘Others’. Labor’s TPP will be less 54.5 to 55.5 unless the Liberal party actually do something illegal.
There will be less sense of a fear of change this time around. People do feel comfortable with Rudd and quite a bit dissapointed with Howard, especially the way he and his team have self-destructed.
I’ve gotta say, thanks to the person who posted the link to the “It’s Time” video on Youtube. I’m having great fun messing with a hack on there.
http://mail.lycos.com/lycos/Index.lycos?right=%2Flycos%2Fmail%2FMailList.lycos%3FFOLDER%3DInbox
Misty 118
The problem with LTEP is not his incessant pessimism, it’s his reflexive dismissal of the objective evidence in favour of his gut feelings.
John, I was in WA too, 39 degree heat on Monday. Incidentally, whilst in Forrest visiting my parents I saw lots of Kevin07 posters (only a few Nola Marino ones).
115 LEP
See my post at 106 for that result
Reminder Adelaide listeners.
Nicole on 5AA at 3.30. Amanda Blair.
Watch your back, Nic. In fact don’t even turn it..they put up a mock interview just after 1pm, making you out to be dumb as and making reference to your boobs!
Charmers!
Amanda is a fat evil jealous cow.
LTEP, whenever I feel uneasy I look at this graph:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-1996v2007-newspoll-primary.png
and then it’s all better again.
Alex,
At this stage that is my view too. Howard has no ideas left, nor surplus to spend.
It occurred to me that, in a perverse way, it could be fun to watch Fox News on election night, or any TV coverage with Shanahan, Albrechtson or others on air live. Assuming results run to script, there could be a few grimmaces of pain visible.
Spiros I don’t remember rejecting any objective evidence. I’ve said time and again all the evidence points to a Labor win. A loss is possible but not probable. I don’t know how much clearer I can get.
the MOE for Morgan was 3.3% so try the meter again
GetReal at 61
Pity nobody ever cleaned up the Minchin audio on WorkChoices Mk II.
Can’t be done with standard audio software. But it can be done with software designed for forensic purposes.
I would say that the Coalition has at most a 5% chance of winning from here.
Lose The Election Please, do you intend to come clean at some point and admit that you are a rusted on Coconut supporter, or not?
Mate, I picked it from the first comment that I read from you.
I’m off to WA (Freo) tonight for 4 days R&R. Forecast – mid teens to mid 20s. A bit cooler than last weekend! $49 each way with Crapstar.
Come on Centre, turn the sarcasm detector on. I promise to never again make a dry remark and/or parody GP without putting a smiley face at the end.
Lefty E
What does RWDB mean? Right Wing Dead beats? Andrew Norton is the biggest neoliberal!! Its almost boring
126 – sorry, that should be http://youtube.com/watch?v=vqMCZBjvmD4
is the nicole cornes interview streamed on the intermanets?
LTEP #128,
Labor doesn’t seriously hope to win Forrest. What they’re doing is a) hoping to damage Marino enough that an Indie can upset her, and/or b)get said Indie into Parliament owing Labor a moral debt.
Yes Centre, I love the Libs. Long live Howard. My work here is done now that I have infiltrated the ALP’s top-most minds.
Anyone who wants a graphic demonstration of the rotten nature of the Coalition and its total debasement of any notion of good government should take a look at a snapshot on Peter Martin’s blog from the auditor general’s just released report.
The snapshot shows a desperate last minute allocation of regional development grants in marginal electorates just before the issuing of writs for the 2004 election. Nearly $3.5 million in our money was ladled out in the space of a half hour.
I ask you: Is the mark of sound economic management? How much further proof do the doubters now need that this government must be put out of its misery??
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/productivity-coalition-style.html
That new ad with the worker is gold! Neutralises that strike/destroy economy one the libs have been running. Alot better than the woman one, which is great on its own.
Spiros – unfortunately on occasion intuition can be a better predictor of the future than the scientific.
I can understand the intuitive response that says Howard is far from gone. Chris Ulhman expressed something similar the other morning didn’t he, with his “the vampire could still get out of the coffin” remark.
I won’t be writing the rodent off until the night of the 24th. I can easily imagine a scenario where this week’s 54/46 becomes 53/47 next week, which becomes 52/48 on election day – which may still make it a tight contest if Howard’s pork has been successful in the marginals.
It’s unlikely, but as LTEP states, it is possible.
Pancho,
Next time remember to use the laugh track like they do on American Comedy shows as some people need to be told when something is a joke.
Well I must sign off for the weekend and finish my work. Thanks again to William for an excellent site.
And thanks to Tony Abbott, for making my day in a most unintended way
Socrates – I will be watching ABC but will also have my lap top logged onto PB. But will surf across other TV stations to see what kind of ridiculous comments are being made by the neo cons.
Just so long as Malcolm Mackerras does not predict a Labor win and the other polls stay the way they are then all will be well for Rudd.
134 Bring Back
Was that comment for me? Newspoll claims it as 4% for the state by state breakdowns, which is what I was working off.
“Sampling error ranges from plus or minus 2 percentage points on the total sample to plus or minus 4 percentage points for the state with the smallest sample size.”
on the most optimistic figures the best vote for the coalition from Morgan gives one 47.3 % which gives them only 67 seats and the ALP 81 seats.
LTEP does forrest take in Bunbury?
I saw lots of lib candidate photos about but none taken with JWH.
NB, you said Morgan.
forget it if you were taking Newspoll
Coonan vs Conway on Skynews right now
Pancho it was so well said. The conservatives here would have been so proud.
Yes John of Melbourne… my parents live in the lowly suburb of Usher (right next to Withers, which Marino refuses to doorknock in).
155 Sorry, corrected myself a few lines down. Only an exercise after all, akin to ‘what would I do if I won Lotto’?
Today’s attack on the Auditor General by Government Ministers over their blatant rorting of tax payer funds really sums up the last 11 years for me. We’ve seen the spirit of democracy slowly, surely strangled as the Rodent’s bully boys viciously attack all and any critics. Its time to finally bury this Government’s rancid, diseased carcass and to let new, democratic life flourish once again.
Centre I was just trying to reverse wedge em. Everyone’s doing it these days.
Communications debate live now on zdnet.com.au
160 GMT
Rudd and co should be on the news tonight pointing out Rattus’ habit of always shooting the messenger.
I think it was originally Right Wing Death Beast, actually, bird.
Norton is a neo-liberal, yes. He’s also intelligent, and argues well. Wish there was more of that from our resident RWDBs here, thats all!
Well, I’m off now for 4 days. William, will throw a few bucks into PayPal to help keep your excellent site operating. avagoodweegend folks.
Lay off LTEP, he might be mundane and depressingly ‘on message’, but this is a political sight. I have shared the pessimism he covets over the ALP’s chances for years, and have only recently (tentatively) kicked the habit. Addiction is a powerful drug, which often can only be overcome with a LABOR VICTORY!!!!
142 Henry. It will stream. I tried to get onto their online, but couldn’t.
LTEP why so?
Putting MOEs to one side for a sec, what of that other variable – the undecided (the undead as I like to call them. How the hell could your mind not be made up yet?)? An Age online poll (dicey, I know) has 98% of 3430 voters saying their minds are made up. Do the psephos out there have an opinion on the undecided? Is the Age basically correct and there aren’t a mass of people out there who are going to make up their mind as they wander into the booth? Thoughts?
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/voted.html
A little off topic here. Remember when you would ask you dad, “Who would win in a fight between…blah, blah?” (stegosaurus vs allosaurus, wonderwoman vs spiderman etc) those ones. Who would win in a boxing match between John “Ravenous Rodent” Howard and Kevin “Milky Bar” Rudd? 15 rounds, WBA sanctioned…
Lots more fun than a bloody 2-month campaign, and JH may have a better shot at defending his title.
LTEP #128,
Labor is spending resources in Forrest to do 2 things:
1. Force the Libs to do likewise – with a new candidate and a large swing, Forrest could be in danger, ergo the Libs must spend their campaign resources in normally-safe seats like Forrest.
2. Hopefully gain an upset IND victory (I believe there’s a strong IND candidate running), who will be i)easier to deal with than an LP MHR, and ii) owe the ALP something of a moral debt for easing his way in.
Lefty E
In regards to Andrew Norton – do not you find to argue within such a narrow ideological paradigm as RW fundamentalism, just so austere…….
So what are you doing for election night btw?
Thanks Crikey, am watching the Coonan – Conroy debate instead!
After a sedate start the gloves are off already!
Boll: You don’t read BLeak’s cartoons at The Australian?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,25198,5024288-20581,00.html
Now Conroy is outright laughing at her!
170
No contest. John’s footwork might have been fancy four years ago, but he seems to be stumbling all over the place now. Also, Rudd has a longer reach.
Must say I prefer the wrestling analogy though.
“Rudd has The Rat on the mat. What’s this? Rudd has pulled out his signature move the THE LANDSLIDE. This won’t be pretty folks, send the kids from the room now…”
I’m a bit of a sceptic like LTEP, but have become increasingly confident this week.
Nothing is going right for the coalition. They have no issue which is getting real traction. They are all looking rather glum. They are going from scandal to gaffe to scandal.
The ALP’s campaign came together this week. They are disciplined and look confident. They are campaigning in safeish coalition seats. They have momentum and the polls have been rock solid.
Yeah miracles happen. But I just can’t see the current rabble pulling off the biggest upset victory in Australian political history.
#174 thanks Andos. some of the funniest stuff I’ve seen in ages.
121
NB Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
just edit the figures in the link to what you need:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=12&qld=12&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
“The minister tries to re-write the laws of physics” – Stephen Conroy.
This is classic stuff!!
Siev XI – Lebovic reckons about 20% say in exit polls they made up their mind either on the day or in the week before.
I think it’s less than that though, and even if they do, it seems they break with the prevailing trend.
I suspect (though of course cannot prove) that people tell pollsters they only made up their minds late to appear more open minded.
Could be wrong though. God knows it’s happened plenty of times before.
Henry, where is the debate? I can’t seem to find it at Sky….,
Now she is suggesting nobbling the ACCC….
So much for the mighty experienced Howard team!
Oil Nelson was sacked from saying anything before the campaign. Andrews and Ruddock have gone missing. Downer is next to useless. Turnbull has been a big floparoo. They are too scared to show Cossie cause he might smirk. And Abbott?
What can we say about Abbott? Do you know the big beer ad!
Abbott is out of touch
He is sooo out of touch
He is so out of freaking touch that it’s huuuuuuuuuge!
182.
Its at…
http://zdnet.com.au
My main concern is in the ad break. The coalition have, on cue, resorted to scaring the bejesus out of the population through blatant untruths. I think the man & woman ‘really Mr Howard’ ads need to be run more, as well as the interest rates. Nothing like a good dose of truth to quell the lies.
here we go again, Hanson ghost haunts Howard…
http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2007/11/15/1194766869667.html
or news.com.au Matthew Cole
Me, Ill be handing out HTVs for the Greens in Kath & Kim Country all day, then hosting a wee election party/ BBQ thingy.
TV on ABC, laptop on wireless, beer on ice.
#185,
I can’t see a video – I’m hearing the story, and Coonan sounds peeved and petty, as opposed to Conroy’s smoothness.
anyone seen this crikey tip?
‘Talk down at the Swamp (The West’s HQ) is that the Editor is once again sitting on some polling data. The Federal Westpoll has yet to be published despite having been with him for over a week now. Readers might recall that the editor has previously forgotten to publish Westpoll results that showed the ALP doing well. Journo’s believe the failure to publish the Westpoll means the Editor doesn’t like the results – could be bad news for the Liberals in WA.’
tsk tsk
Coonan’s lost the plot.
You very bad man Mr Conroy!!
He can’t contain himself!!
Burgey and Siev XI: Antony says the undecideds break out at 2/1 in favour of the flow. My guess this will be more pronounced with large swings (5% or more).
Antony, if you’re around, can you explain the reasoning behind the 2/1 breakdown. Obviously the mood of the time is a factor, but is this some inherent rusting on with these so it gives a base 33% each and the other 33% just goes with the mood or what?
There’s some analysis here regarding four to five weeks of campaign polling in the previous four elections. It’s remarkably accurate and holds no comfort for Coalition supporters hoping for a dramatic turnaround in 2007.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1850
Where, oh where, is L2?
He was back to his smarty-pants best with that mob of sycos on Monday, but what’s he been doing since?
Has he been campaigning in Higgins? Oh dear…
If he doesn’t raise his head in the next few days, and Monday’s (Sunday’s?) Newspoll is grim, then my guess is he will be angling to keep a low profile till Saturday week. To continue to campaign alongside Howard is to firmly identify yourself as being equally responsible (culpable) for the oncoming rout. Not a good look for someone who still has a future(?) in politics.
The charade of the Libs having two leaders will have Costello chalking up one election loss already! LOL.
I think hiding is his best option. But he still has to win Higgins.
Yeah, I agree about the scepticism, the longer this goes on the more worrried and sceptical you get.
Back in February March I was thinking 83 seats, then September October 92 seats, now I’m thinking 117 seats.
Henry #193,
But the temptation to take the dig at the Audit report was too much.
Debate on Skynews
Shut Coonans up. She is so rude interrupting & talking over everybody. This is not a debate. I work in telecommunications & she is telling fibs.
Nicole Cornes is giving a series of anti-politics answers to questions on 5AA.
She isn’t giving the Labor sound bites, but she is giving her own unorthodox answers to some pretty straight forward questions.
I have no idea if this will help her win, but she sounds like the candidate that people SAY they want, someone who isn’t a cookie cutter pollie, but someone who speaks like a normal person.
I think it was private Taffy (the undertaker) who used to say “we’re doomed I tell you, doooooooomed”. Corporal Jones would run around waving his arms saying “don’t panic! don’t panic! Mr Mainwaring”, or my favorite ,whilst holding his bayonet “they don’t like it up ‘em!”.
This is could be the state of the Liberal party election strategy:-0
Nicole performed very well. Brought Amanda some gifts, and ‘flakes’ for her kids. Including a Kevin 07 shirt for Amanda.
Got in her repudiation of ‘working families never been better off’.
Referred to her links to the community. Her law degree, social justice aspects.
Praised Kev.
Her values, the representation of community as a Parliamentarian.
Amanda refers to the Cornes bank balance, suggests Nicole not in touch with the ‘common man’. Gracefully refers to her childhood, pensioner parent, worked in an aged care home at age 14, as volunteer at first and then paid. Talked of tasks she undertook. Showering, dressing, toilet cleaning. Left school at 15.
Refers to her small business career. Law degree. The difficulty of her first interview. With her small children in the room.
Emphasises Labor values, talks of Gough Whitlam’s achievements.
Labor Party is about rights for working families.
Sticks up for herself as not shielded. Fills in background on what actually happened with Julia at Marion yesterday, after the media had been earlier afforded every opportunity to pose questions, which they did not. Until, the opportunity grab outside, for the cameras. Julia was not ‘nursing’ her, or being her ‘Mum’ as Amanda put it. Julia fed up with media behaviour, by the sound of it.
Answers callers qestions on policy. Childcare rebate and places. Dental scheme teenagers. Personally believes in voluntary student union membership.
Childcare. Increasing rebate to 50%, places. Dental scheme teenagers. Medicare.
(Has head around this stuff, for sure).
Would take it as a great compliment to represent Boothby.
Passionate, we need more women in Parliament..
Applause from CW.
ruawake – coonan lost the plot? More, please. Major gaffe?
118 Misty
I agree – LTEP is entitled to his pessimism – have the rest of you not been in the country since ‘96? I know the polls were nothing like they are now, but some of us have learnt to be pessimistic. It’s the only way to handle defeat (if it happens). It also heightens the euphoria if we do win.
She is a shrew. Just a shrew.
Things have calmed down a little, not too much guffawing from Conroy when she answers. Very dry digital channels stuff now.
Come on Steve, get fired up.
How would you like to wake up with Coonans looking at you.
I think if you look at the Newspoll 2001 post election poll 29% said they made their mind up in the last week and told who they voted for. And after allowing for preferences I think it worked out to about 59/41 in favour of Labor for that election.
No gaffe – just shouting, ranting raving. Even Speers was getting peeved – he keeps telling her to shut up (quietly).
Shaboh #206,
Not one bit. She’s a horrid person, and a shrew.
thanks will and burgey, hopefully anty from aunty can add abit more
Thanks for the update on Nicole Crikey.
So she passed this mini test with flying colours by the sound of it?
Any votes in it for her?
From what i have seen/heard of her she seems like a nice lady. Has air of vulnerability and genuineness to her which I like and I think might resonate with the public.
Coonan is claiming that ABC is well-funded by the Government….WTF?
Is Cornes out of her box again eh? We’ll have to nail it shut next time, just after a short jocular conversation
Labor to have more communications announcements next week! Wow!
More guffawing from Conroy as The Coonan interrupts!
Gods, can she stop talking over him? She is SO rude……
Newspoll 2001 Post election – those who made their mind up in the last week
26% made up their mind in the last week.
24% ALP
17% LNP
45% Others
the rest? not stated.
Didn’t Morgan show that Latham ALP was on 56 just in the last week of the last campaign?
With this Morgan Poll, I prefer to see the figures from the ‘Preferences distributedby how electors say they will vote’ which shows a 57-43 split rather than the ‘Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election’ which shows a 56.5%-43.5% split.
The major polls keep showing their figures as though the preferences are going to split as they did in 2004, when I believe that the preferences will split with another 0.50-0.75% added to the Labor TPP this time around.
This one is all over. ‘Please welcome into the room, the new Prime Minister of Australia… Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’
Without being offensive to women she is the stereotype woman you don’t wish to see in politics or even more as political leaders eg Bronnie Bishop.
Julia Gillard is different in style. When I see her debating I don’t see her interrupting or talking over people. Classic example was when Abbott had his bad day when he was late at his debate etc…. He appeared on Lateline that night & was on a hiding to nothing with Julia. Even though he was an easy mark Julia listened & waited till he finished his sentence before talking. A class act. Coonans is just damn rude & is behaving like a aggressive male.
Conroy slam dunks her with the 16yr old kid who got around the $83M porn filter in 30 minutes!!
“Oh but Stephen this should be above politics” she sniffs.
Coonan epitomises the typical liberal woman. head so far up in the air she doesnt realise she is walking off a cliff.
Yes,Henry.
Nicole came over as clear, honest, genuine, caring. Callers clearly liked her. She stuck up for herself very well. No fluster. Indicated that knowing policy inside out is not first and only, representation of electors is primary.
Admitted to the learning curve, how Bob Hawke had offered her a bit of advice, that she was learning from mistakes.
I’m sure she would appeal, in general and in person.
I did meet her at the SA Press Club. Struck me as very nice, sincere.
Cue more laughter from Conroy as the shrew mangles another questions.
Honestly she is a spud.
Really though Speers is giving her a lot of leeway. Bias to the Libs????
Above politics?? Didnt they spend $21 million advertising the $83 million porn filter?
LTEP, of course it’s possible for the Coalition to win the election – all they have to do is get enough votes. On that logic it’s also possible for the Democrats to win the election. But the question for supposedly well-informed election-watchers is not what is theoretically possible, but what is LIKELY. What is likelihood of the Coalition winning? They need a 5% swing in a week. What possible EVENTS or ISSUES could tip voter sentiment 5% in one week? Nothing that I can think of. If voter sentiment had been volatile all year, it might be arguable. But it hasn’t, it’s been very steady. All the objective evidence is that the voters made up their minds months ago, and that nothing in the campaign has budged them. Do you really think that another week of ranting about union bosses will suddenly do what six months of ranting about union bosses has failed to do?
Have to get my bucket out and start watering. Sigh. So HOT!
Conroy cleaned up Coonan with the VOIP question. I mean, as communication minister, surely she should be across the technical details of the network that she is planning to have the private sector deploy.
Speers has to give Coonan some leeway – otherwise everyone would be rolling on the floor laughing at her.
Yep, dont wrote off Cornes people. Looking unfamiliar with the machine politics, vulnerable, and generally anti-politician is hardly a bad look, especially for a woman with considerable middle aged bloke appeal and AFL connections.
Final statments – shrew first, Conroy is laughing his tits off in the background!
I hope I don’t offend anybody.
Here is a great site:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/whos_a_pretty_pollie_then_.htm
I always thought Kate Ellis (Labor) was easy on the eyes but wow whee, Georgina Anderson (Libs)!
She just goes on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on & on
And now Coonan’s getting a free question from the “impartial” moderator.
She’s using it to attack ALP’s broadband money. His response is to point out the funding levels and sources.
Conroy’s question – a 16-year-old schoolboy managed to bypass the LP’s “filters” that have cost $86 million. Coonan has attacked the question, saying that it should be “above politics”, and finally answers that he was able to bypass the filter because he had admin functions on the computer. So she advises keeping all under-18s off admin access on family computers?
Coonan’s Q2: Attacks ALP’s broadband, saying that it’s not giving access. Conroy’s response – the plan will give access to 98%, and Fed will create a plan to get access to other 2%.
Conroy – OECD report stating high business communications costs. Does Coonan support cheaper business communications and if so, why does she support an internet plan that cannot deliver VoIP (OPEL)? Coonan avoided the question.
Coonan’s final statement – attack’s ALP “inexperience”, “lack of detail”, “risk to trn-dollar economy”……booooooring. Apparently ALP wants to abolish digital Australia. Apparently, ALP State Govt’s are amassing debt (WTF? all in surplus), and attacks ALP’s economics (she should know better by know). Also off-topic.
Conroy’s final – choice between past and future. Points out Coonan’s disparity between city/rural areas. Points out Coonan’s dodge of his VoIP question.
Bet Sky News Poll gives it 60-40 to Cooonan
I’m voting for Nicole! go girl…meeting her tomorrow at a street corner meeting too & so are lots of my friends.
I went to a Sol (Telstra) seminar once & even he attacked Coonans lack of telecommunications technology. I remember him saying she doesn’t know when to shut up.
236 – Apologies for the gratuitous sexism, but Nicole is also pretty damn cute imo.
Well, overall – Coonan’s pathetic, but then again we all knew that. Conroy appears to be out of her league as fair as grasp of detail is concerned, and he is also much better at speaking.
#232 cheers John, an enjoyable 5 minutes there. Deeply offended nonetheless.
Al in Boothby. What about taking her an edit of the thread?
I may not make it, got a Greens thing. Yes, I know I’m voting Labor. HOR.
Yeah I’d have a crack at Nicole too
Thanks all for the running comments … sounds as through Nicole gained some Brownie points and Coonan scared the horses …
Coonan, Ruddock, Vaile, Howard – all you get is blah blah blah.
Atleast with labor it’s new blah blah blah. quick I wanna vote for them…
PS with regards to Nostradamus prediction #113 (LNP 61: ALP87: IND2), I have just channelled him and he offers his sincere apologies (unlike the LNP) for the “Barren” term used.
JoM, i’d pretty well guarantee she’d find you singularly unattractive. wtf is all this c^&p?
Once again.
This is a political site!
Find your own space or get into the shower, John of Melbourne.
Out of site, out of mind.
passthepopcorn she’d think I was adonis
Lol. No only kidding. I was just pasting a link which asks how’s Election 07 shaping up in the beauty stakes?
It is not really the done thing to call idiots idiots so you intellectually challenged twits really need no spend no more than one minute at Oz Politics to get the real story. Have effectively shut up some equally verbose conservatives by directing them to this sight. Any analyst worth his salt would die laughing at the ridiculous notion of a comeback. In psychology it is called cognitive dissonance (look it up darlings) get over it, have a little cry and say welcome to a better and fairer Australia. Auditor General = Death Penalty. So long and thanks for all the fish.
Crikey whitey @ 241 – that’s a great idea – would I just cut and paste into a word doc? any other suggestions?
Who wants to bet than Ackerman/Milne will have some “bombshell” revelation (dirt-unit) article this weekend???
Yes, Al. You can select all, copy, paste into word, edit.
Or individually select the posts.
Probably easier to do the former.
I’m sure she would appreciate it.
JoM. So offended!!!!! (Mia in Sturt… is she a chance to win does anyone know?)
232- John
whats looks got to do, got to do, with it…
But go Kate!
Poll today in The Advertiser – Pyne 51 Handshin 49. 45 / 38 on primaries though.
ShowsOn.
Its close! I’ll be rootin’ for her! Boom tish!!! wucka wucka!!!!
Thanks eveyone for the commentary on the Coonan/Conroy debate.
It’s interesting how many of these debates havw seen the shadow deminstrating a good depth of understanding of their portfollio as compared to the Minister,
Crikey @ 250
Sounds good but probably should leave out the lusting ones from various posters…or perhaps not!!!
Ooops Portlandbet just got hacked.
http://betelection.com/elections/
232- HOT POLLIE CHICKS
I can’t believe a progressive man like me with all my pro-equality values would even entertain such an article.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/whos_a_pretty_pollie_then_.htm
Problem is after reading it i can’t stop thinking about those family first girls.
Is it still inapropriate when you KNOW they’re gagging for it anyway?
Oh. Al in Boothby. Don’t forget to leave the site attribution in. It will appear at base of your document. Copyright.
going by the commentary poor old Cooee Coonan got thrashed! (”Cooee” cause that’s how up to date her comms knowledge is)
[Ooops Portlandbet just got hacked.
http://betelection.com/elections/
Or they’re really pissed.
257
Wholly shit it bloody has been- i checked it out NOT using your link too.
No offense intended, but Coonan has a STRIKING similarity to Ms Piggy, in appearance and demeanor:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/senators/homepages/images/photos/2M6.jpg
http://photos.friendster.com/photos/06/27/20497260/14425997725108m.jpg
Wish I had of seen or listened to that Coonan – Conroy debate…..now I think we need to go to the hottest men in Oz politics….mmmI’ll get back to youon that – may take a while.
Big Blind Dave – so politically incorrect – but so VERY funny!!
William I think it’s time you issued a fatwa against this site being used as a masturbation aide.
Vaile cops flak on PM … Radio National.
There always one person that has to go one step too far isn’t there Adam?
Yes, I’m glad I’m no longer alone in people finally telling LTEP that his baseless self-loathing is beyond boring now.
Yes LTEP it’s possible the Coalition can win from here. It’s also *possible* that the Greens will win 76 seats in the House and form the next government – they’re running candidates in all (or almost all) HoR seats so it’s technically possible!
The Democrats are also running enough Senate candidates to reclaim the balance of power. That’s *possible* too!
And yes we could beset with a barrage of poison monkeys in safe Labor seats that bite enough of the populace there and leave them too sick to vote, leading the Coalition to victory on 24th November.
Anything’s possible. Analysis of likely outcomes based on evidence (or even anecdotes) is far more informative and useful — and dare I say it, entertaining!
Adam, I think you’re underestimating the appeal of some of the reported swing data.
I refer you back to your comments regarding Dick Adams.
Fortunately you didn’t write his names the other way around.
Adam: Is that because you and I are missing out?
But I think Big Blind Dave meant Family First Boys.
We know what they’re like.
I can’t think of a better way to spend an afternoon than sitting in front of the cricket on TV, laptop on the lap and connected to this blog and now a glass of good red!
That is an awsome hack at portland. Probably was the kid that got throught the porn filter in 30 mins.
272 Crikey
Come off it, these chicks are probably still virgins- more than i could say for the greens- damn commune life, it steals their best years.
BK. Please, some of us are still at work…… : – (
re 258
“Those outraged by the idea of men finding women attractive should direct all complaints to: The Office of the Prosecutor, International Criminal Court, Post Office Box 19519, 2500 CM The Hague, The Netherlands.”
I’m still laughing.
BK @ 273
I’m having a nice cold dry Riesling ’cause its bloody hot here in Boothby and red wine just wouldn’t cut it…agree though!
I know plenty of real porn sites, so I don’t have to spend any time looking at very small pics of so-called pretty pollies.
There’s no point getting all worked up by a debate between the communications spokespeople. Unless one of them makes a huge gaffe, no one in Voterland’s going to care. However, under this govt there’s been absolutely no progress on broadband, so Coonan’s got to go. At least Labor’s showing some vision on broadband.
What’s with this ‘Horse Australia’ outfit (mentioned in Peter Martin’s list of Pork). Every time I’ve seen a corrupt list of pork whether from Manly Council or the Federal Government piggery ‘Horse Australia’ bobs up as a Tory favorite.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/productivity-coalition-style.html
Middle Man – would you like to swap your work for my age?
But , , , apologies for upsetting you.
Sorry Adam @ 226, I concur. I’ve rehashed your idea, before reading your post…
Nonetheless, glad to finally have some support on this issue though!
Adam @ 265
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=BV5
Balanced restored
Gee whizz, listened to the It’s Time clip someone here posted–and got tears in my eyes! Nine days and all the days of lies, pork, weaselwords, increasing ‘anti terrorist’ laws and the like will be gone! Never to have to listen to Howard’s flat boring monotonous voice! Room and encouragement for ideas and ideals again!
And, hopefully, a nice return from bets on ALP candidates in Bennelong, North Sydney, Ryan, Herbert etc!
Capt Smirk, bereft of Treasury briefings looking like the economic idiot he is, having to ask questions in Parlt instead of his loud, bullying tirades etc.
Yes, it’s time!
Argh. No twilight savings here in Bris so i can’t wander out of the office this early. Still another 30 mins before I can order my first schooner.
Well Adam, me thinks we can unilaterally put a stop to any pollbludger driven self fornication: AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE
AMANDA VANSTONE…
There, bet its gone soft now
Well, out of interest: I once asked Ms LE about spunky bloke pollies, and its thin on the ground according to her – though Stephen Conroy got a guernsey.
LOL!
Thanks John!
I think I’ll move to Bradfield in order to be closer to Victoria :p
You’re all being very conservative in your “coneivable” outcomes.
It is conceivable that Bush invades Iran, Iran responds with nuclear weapons against all members of The Coalition of The Willling.
Martial Law is declared – election is not held. PM Howard returned in elections in 2009. Leads Australia until 2017. He then hands power to Treasurer Vaille to lead the Australian Tory Party,
Conceivable. Not bloody likely, but conveivable.
Lefty E. I’ve seen Conroy at IFSA conferences after a night of free beer and wine. Not pretty.
If anyone has time away from this blog – check out the ABC Unleashed: Sledge videos on YouTube – some are absolutely brilliant – a fav is “Leave John Howard Alone” warning though – you could be there for hours and hours….
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=E2646E76131DA9DB
Just reporting research findings, MM!
Anyway, pfft to all these pulchritudinous pollies.
Emma Alberici is the only woman who could give possibly Ms LE a run for her money.
Combet, Shorten, Kev. Nerds are okay. Gone off Stephen Conroy.
Al in Boothby. On with your work.
53 Isabella “Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops? So kids are to get two taxpayer funded laptops? Is the ALP in the pocket of Dell Computers?”
That comment just shows how really really desperate the Liberals are to make something out of nothing.
Further thought on Dick Adams: where does his face end and his beard begin? Is he like a penguin with lots of fur? Or is that actually the contour of his face and the beard is just stubble?
Lefty E. Now you’re talking. Mrs MM likes to stir me by talking up how hot KR is everytime he pops up on the telly. I wouldn’t mind except that he lives a bit too close to us for it to be comfortable!
el rodente on the wireless saying “he [tony] did not say that” [ie that protections had been taken away].
parallel universe.
i need a drink.
# 69 John Hunt Is A Coward Says:
Lose the election please why do you want to Lose the election?
Please explain?
He is not an ALP supporter. Not with his logic. If you look up the term troll in Wiki it will explain. Via this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
Back to psephology (momentarily). Polling for Newspoll would be happening now.
Labor launch+Abbott’s mouth+Auditor General….any bets on the TPP for Labor? I actually reckon their primary will go above 50.
Crikey – as soon as I have finished my 2nd glass.
I know, the Libs just left the building. Not in Kansas anymore.
So let me get this straight: Abbott didn’t say what he clearly says, on film, for all to see.
You know what: piss off Team Rodent. We’ve had it with your braindead crap.
ABC PM:
Howard spinning madly over abbott’s workchoices mini-epic. Asked if he agreed with abbott’s comment that conditions had been removed, snapped: “He didn’t say that …” Some blah blah … then a transcript of what abbot said. Case closed. To put it delicately, it was not all that good.
[el rodente on the wireless saying “he [tony] did not say that” [ie that protections had been taken away].
parallel universe.
i need a drink.]
The camera LIED OK. We live in a post modernist world which the camera can’t record with ANY accuracy whatsoever.
[He is not an ALP supporter. Not with his logic. If you look up the term troll in Wiki it will explain. Via this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
Fair, fair. He isn’t a troll, he is just a left wing pessimist.
Labor has one twice from opposition since 1945, even when it looks obvious they will win there are many who fear they will lose.
I even dreamt that the National Party won 1 seat in the senate in South Australia, that must mean something.
Chris 300
LTEP would have to be most depressed “Supporter” in the country.
The only other depressed people around here support a mob starting with L.
With these polls who can blame them…lol
Which reminds me of that PJK classic:
“Im not John Howard, Im a hedgehog”.
“Oh, look, he’s a hedgehog!”
Thank you Paul Keating, for everything.
yes, lefty E – the clip was played, and el rodente was asked to comment on why the mad monk said that protections had been taken away. el rodente said “he did not say that, he did not say that”.
actually, make mine a double.
Subj: KEVIN07: A personal thank you from Julia Gillard
Date: 16/11/2007 6:31:40 AM Cen. Australia Daylight Tim
From: kevinO7@kevinO7.com.au
To: Me
A personal thank you from Julia Gillard
As the election day draws ever closer Julia Gillard would like to send a personal thank you to all the people who’ve supported the campaign so far. Through your generous donations, wearing or displaying KEVIN07 Gear, signing petitions or just having your say on the site, the support from all over Australia has been fantastic.
Click here to watch Julia’s message.
If you have subscribed in error to this email or been subscribed without your consent, or for any other reason do not wish to receive any further emails regarding KEVIN07, please click here to unsubscribe.
Authorised by Tim Gartrell, 161 London Circuit, Canberra City, ACT 2600.
Tony was quite clear in his statement at the Warringah election debate. There were NO transcripts, and the question was asked by Hugh Zochling (ALP candidate), not a moderator. The moderator did not ask any questions, it was Tony and Hugh asking each other q’s, and the rest were mostly Liberal hacks making anti-Labor statements with question marks at the end. A hilarious event, rattus’s supporters became very ratty, to the crowds delight. I doubt there’ll be one next election
or mobile phones will be banned
Chris B
To be more precise, someone on here long ago identified LTEP as not just a troll, but a concern troll. Possibly the worst kind of troll.
The bad news is we’ve all fallen into its trap and continue to feed it the attention it seeks so badly…
Dinsdale. I reckon 49 is its max.
LTEP: admit it, you’re a Liberal troll masquerading as a Labor pessimist.
Let me guess, if Rudd is about to win a 20 seat majority on the evening of November 24, you’ll still be claiming Howard can win the election.
We’re trying to see four, John.
Holy crap. This is the campaign moment when tragedy became farce.
LTEP is probably Glen’s alter ego LOL
TofK, someone told me Amanda was a real animal. You better make it Bronwyn Bishop to make sure of it.
leave LTEP alone! i still get twinges of fear…
only 12 days to go now (oh, sorry john, 8 days).
Now Mark Vaille is on radio saying the auditor general was trying to alter the election and that the caretaker provisions might be extended to public servants.
What a f*cking joke. The sooner he gets on his skateboard the better.
No wonder they’ve politicise dthe public service so much. The remaining public servants who are independent ge treated like that when they tell it like it is.
Dire.
God are we still going on about if I’m a concern troll. Who would’ve thought the opinions of one person could cause so much discussion. Funnily enough I’ve never thought it worthy of discussing whether x person is a troll.
Then you can all gang up and feel great about yourselves. Well done.
But back to the question at hand. Someone asked whether a Morgan poll in the final week of the ‘04 election campaign had Latham at 56%. I don’t think so… I don’t think even close to 56%.
The Morgan situation in ‘04 was quite markedly different:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3791/
“The L-NP are leading 52.5% (up 1% on last week’s telephone Morgan Poll); 47.5% ALP (down 1% in the week)”
That seems pretty close to what they finally achieved.
The weekend papers have got sooooo much material to work with….
The Libs won’t be able to get back on message until about Friday next week.
burgey, are you sure that’s what you heard vaile saying?!
make mine a triple.
Centre, we want people to stop getting the jollies out of pollbludger, not start a mass exodus!!! The former minister for caged hair is a little too far in my book
If JWH loses the election (I hope the Ireland scenario will play out here) and we get more interest rate rises then yes it will be true that interest rates will always be higher under Labor.
Also looking at the primary votes polled at around this time Morgan had it at about 38% which is close to what finally occurred.
322 tofk: “minister for caged hair”! i love it.
how about the minister for concrete thinking.
321 – yes, he questioned the timing of the release of the report, despite the AG mentioning in it that the department of transport had delayed its reply, which was why it was late.
LTEP I’m with ya buddy! Who cares what colour or colours he/she is as long as he/she participates in the debate!
Everyone gives Moragn some heat, but they were pretty close last time. Second to ACN i think. or was galaxy 2nd?
Has anyone heard a substantive (by his standards at least) response from Howard on the grants fiasco?
Galaxy was first
I think you’ll find Galaxy was first.
omigod, burgey, i’m longing for the day when these sad excuses for human beings are guillotined.
8 days is all i have to wait.
Next Newspoll should be around 59/41.
This fits in with the Morgan polls and I would not be surprised to see the final result around this mark as labor wins the final week of the campaign.
This will get labor about 117 seats,a good result and a righteous result.
57 -60 new members of parliament coming in, new talent, vision and ideas, and the same amount retired to pasture.
A good cleanout for the libs that gets rid of so much deadwood so they can rebuild anew.
The breaking of the drought as we get a good 3-4 weeks of soaking rain before christmas, even the salt shakers realise now what has been happening, saying that rain has been withheld to punish Australia for its wrong ways. But the drought will end with the end if cooalition rule as it did in 83.
oh thanks.
the OZ says: PRIME Minister John Howard says he stands by all grants issued under the discredited Regional Partnerships Program.
is that substantive enough?
The biggest story of the election campaign is about to break.
The GG will reveal tomorrow that Tony Abbott is, in fact, a Labor mole.
The late appearances at the debate and at the remembrance day ceremony, the swaering at women, the hospital debacle, the abuse of dying men, the fessing up over WorkChoices…they’re not all coincidences. It is part of a sinister plot by Labor to use a willing Tony Abbott to destroy every last shred of credibility the Coalition had.
With help from Mark Vaile, that is.
NOT! 323.
22% under John Howard, the World’s Worst Treasurer.
No further correspondence will be entered into.
Re Adam @ 226
No I don’t believe anything will change in the last week.
Funny you should mention the Democrats winning the election! Whilst at Miss Maud Swedish Restaurant in Perth on Monday I looked at their ‘bean poll’ which prides itself as being correct to a certain .x% in the last few elections. The bean poll said the Democrats would be a runaway success winning the election in a landslide. Whoops… they must’ve had a Dems function at the restaurant one night.
Crikey Whitey
I thought you were heading outside for the bucket brigade an hour ago. This site is too good to leave alone for very long, isn’t it.
JWH.
World’s Greatest Liar.
‘Tony did not say that’.
I have the tape, the transcript.
It must’ve been a wake.
Those beans were all that was left in the party coffers.
Crikey Whitey #336 that was not the mortgage rate!
No further correspondence will be entered into.
I cant believe it Kev’s first job might be sorting out this Balibo 5 verdict… talk about the deep end!
Back again, Middle Man is right: the story in the Oz is here
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769886-601,00.html
Reminds me of Mayor Quimby on the Simpsons: “I stand by my ethnic slur”.
Of course “Diamond Joe” Howard forgot to mention that according to the audit, DOTARS never even checked how the Regional Partnerships Programme money was beign spent, or if the regions even benefited from the cash. So its hard to see how he can say he knows the regions benefited. Who cares? Its only our taxes.
BK. I did a few buckets. Got too hot. Will wait a bit. I’m evens, luckily, tomorrow can use the hose!
no john, it was the cash rate. and your point is?
Howard: Tony only said that WorkChoices took away our “protections” in a short jocular debate with his Labor counterpart. He has said sorry, but has not apologised.
This has probably been posted before, but for those who haven’t seen it sums up the whole LNP attitude. Hilarious to boot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tjftg2XW_M
John@341
Were not rates still under the direct control of the government in those days?
out of here. beer time!
Crikey Whitey
I thought tokenism was the province of JWH et al.
I hope he seeks out a bipartisan position. It could be very difficult for us trying to take retired Indonesian generals to court for war crimes.
348 BK
They sure were. Another example of tory spin. John of Melbourne, stop sticking your head in the sand and admit that the rates were terrible under Howard as treasurer.
Yes passthepopcorn, 22% was just the rate that sent small businesse broke at the time, thanks to John Howard, the battler’s friend who lives in Kirribilli.
Speaking of when Howard was Treasurer, how high was unemployment then too? What about government debt? They weren’t very flattering figures either, as I recall.
I suppose when it comes to recalling his own ecoomic achievements, John Howard is not a fan of the “Black Armband View” of economic history. Prefers a good whitewash.
“In some instances, ministers approved money for projects without even receiving a funding application.
But Mr Howard said he would defend the grants program. ”
Why of course…
Did someone mention Mark Vaile?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/surprise-deputy-pm-suggests-muzzling.html
Labor run hospital
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22769185-2,00.html
Will federal Labor do any better?
Well, hell. It’s 36 degrees, isn’t it?
Got a ‘new leadership’ kevin07 DVD in the mail..probably due to being in a marginal
now THATS electioneering
so will Howard respond and send out a 78 to play on the grammaphone ?
Nah, 22 was a smaller number back then. Numbers have since inflated.
crikey whitey
there are many ways to lock someone up or nobble them
ever read 1984 or brave new world
sometimes (like the ruddmeister) you play em at their own game
someone once said “all power is at the point of a gun”
now i would say its at the ‘click of a mouse’
Vaile is on the Australian’s homepage trying to spin the ANAO report. He’s a disgrace! Here’s the link: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769982-601,00.html
359
Best laugh today
I got to go have a great weekend y’all!
May JWH and the Coalition get an increase of 4% in their primary vote this weekend.
Ah well.
Another week grinds to an end – a week the Liberals needed to win convincingly.
But we have Regional Pork Gate, another Abbott “pseudo gaffe” polls showing the same. The weekend media will be about stuff Howard could only imagine in a nightmare.
Labor are “on message” the Libs are trying to figure out what the message is.
Its all over.
Yes, gusface. Have read. Good you escaped, anyway.
Or the tick of a rodent.
Which seat are you in?
I hope I’m letterboxing those next week.
slow down on those hallucinogenics, john. have a good weekend.
ShowwOn@359
Last week Alan Kohler showed a graph (ABC News, I think) that showed that Australian interest rates hve steadily been at 1,2 times OECD average since the seventies. That is, we have had an interest rate that is a reflection of the reast of the developed world.
This is a chart that Labor should hammer!
Thank God he’s gone.
321 – PTP & Steve @ 355.
Here is Vaile’s response to the auditor’s report:
“I mean, you know, to have an unelected individual who is a statutory office holder, making a decision on the release of a report like this and the timing like that, maybe that shouldn’t, that needs to be looked at. And maybe that’s something that the next Government of Australia should have a look at.”
In other words, shoot the messenger.
Now THAT’S good government!
356 [Labor run hospital]
Hey, JOM you imply the Libs could run hospitals. I think the collapse of the Mersey deal knocks that one on the head. Hospitals will be one of the first areas to improve under Labor after 12 years of Tory underfunding. Why do Tories claim to be good economic managers when they can’t even get one hospital in Tasmania to work?
ShowsOn @ 366
Grammaphone? Grammaphone! Modern rubbish. Nah, wax cylinders for Grandpa. Or piano rolls.
I saw Howard’s news conference late today. He looked very relaxed. Obviously he has made peace with the fact that he is going down. No nerves now. Can’t fix what is definitely broken, so no use getting uptight.
Just saw Howard on channel 9 news here in Sydney. He is saying that Rudd can not be believed when he says that he is an economic conservative.
Something that I haven’t seen before happened soon after the Rodent finished making that comment. His face turned to a frown like this
Poor Coconut, he was about to start crying. Priceless!
It seems Vaile would prefer the opposite – the report should be compiled by a partisan member of parliament, and that person should sit on reports instead of releasing them.
Is anyone surprised he would prefer such a system?
“He’s not heavy he’s my brother”
“Why bother, he’s in the gutter”
I know what I’m choosing
I have worked out Howard’s cunning plan. Yesterday was 12 days to go, today it is 8, Sat 4 so the election is really on Sunday. Only Liberal members are aware of this so they are all returned – winning each seat 1 – 0.
Budget surpluses will increase due to the fine imposed on everyone who did not vote
358 [Got a ‘new leadership’ kevin07 DVD in the mail..probably due to being in a marginal
now THATS electioneering
so will Howard respond and send out a 78 to play on the grammaphone ?]
Blacklight , truth is the Tories are engraving a stone tablet for you as we speak.
It is a very powerful way of campaigning by Labor though. First heard of the concept in the US where a byelection was won by an unfancied candidate by sending everybody a video of his ideas.
The final Morgan ph poll has actually been accurate on primaries at the last Vic, Qld and Fed elections. At the ‘04 Fed election, Morgan messed up with his pref allocation, predicting a Labor 2PP of 51%, but his primary was closest for both Labor and Coalition at that election.
That new ‘really Mr Howard’ ad is running on tele. Its good, believable, unlike that contrivived bs about the unions from the libs, the sky will fall in…
Ok, I’m probably the last person here to have seen this but mayby not so…
It’s a thingy about climate change (not dramatic, but quite good)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
Where’s Glen?
Here’s an article that references Australia having a nuclear power station in the 1950s:
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/nuclear_energy_the_election_elephant_in_the_room.htm
What Morgan poll, Lord D?
Wonder if Captain Brough will tell us exactly where the Bribie Island nuclear power plant will go when he opens the Caboolture bypass on Sunday?
Crikey Whitey, I mean the final Morgan ph poll; it should be released the day before the election.
His Mum’s making sure he eats his tea, she’ll drop him in later, ShowsOn.
386 Glen was last seen blindfolded with 25 pins, the Liberal Party nuclear policy and a map.
Oh right, Lord D. I heard someone from Morgan on Newsradio earlier, suggesting that people start ‘thinking rationally’ in the last week.
So get with it, guys!
Just a thought. Do you think that our rants on this sight will form the basis of will’s phd, titled, ‘the crap people write’? Wonder who deserves an entire chapter.
Portland Bet has been hacked and it is quite funny to look at.
http://betelection.com/elections/
Looks like the odds for Labor are about to shorten a whole lot more.
The clock is running to see how long is takes for them to figure it out.
His Mum’s making sure he eats his tea, she’ll drop him in later, ShowsOn.
LOL!
LOL!
Does anyone keep track of the daily verdict?
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
It seems to be a pretty accurate gauge of the campaign I think.
Its lovely stuff that Portland bet, whoever visits would be slightly inclined to vote for Rudd
DLP,
Not that many people go to the Portlandbet site. Most just go to the frontpage at http://www.portlandbet.com
Still, that thing has been up there for a couple of hours at least, so I’m surprised they haven’t spotted it yet…
ShowsOn 382 – the power station was supposed to be built at Jervis Bay (yellow fish with pink and purple spots, anyone?). The site is now the car park at Murray’s Beach, near the entrance to the bay, and the bay is a marine national park, so they wouldn’t dare resurrect THAT proposal.
Rofl DLP – that is a classic
Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but Sportingbet is now at Labor $1.28/ Coalition $3.60.
Those are the widest odds I’ve seen there for a while…
Gary
The relaxed howard is no doubt the medication kicking in…
RE the Sydney commercial news….no mention at all of Abbots gaff which was disappointing, most news time allocated to that pillock who rushed the stage at the Howard speech. The libs have already converted the footage into an anti union ad cos he was from the teacher unions. Well done mate.
The Portland Bet hacking thing is funny to look at, but a bit scary really. Money changes hands on the site. Brings up the question of security and all that.
STIRLING EFFORTS
Ozymandias (waving to Son): How was your day at school, mate?
Son of Ozymandias grunts.
Ozy: So what’d you get up to?
SoO: Nothing much…
Ozymandias sighs, resigned to this most common of responses.
SoO: Oh, except Kevin Rudd came into our class.
Ozy: What?
SoO: Yeah, with about 40 other people.
Ozy: Cameras?
SoO: Heaps.
Ozy: So, what’d he talk about?
SoO: Oh you know, parliament and stuff.
Ozy: Wow.
SoO: He looks kind of different on TV.
Ozy: Different how?
SoO: He’s taller in real life.
Ozy: He’s not as tall as Peter Tinley. Was he there?
SoO: Who?
Ozy: A big, tall guy, dark hair, tanned face, looks like a soldier.
SoO: Dunno dad. There were lots of people there.
Wow.
Asanque @ 396
I love it.
Lets’s face Kevins odds can’t get any better but I love the anarchy of a good hack.
395 Jenny
One of the Libs has got a holiday place down there. He WANTS a nuke plant.
Say, LTEP,
I don’t think you’re a loser. You just need the right kind of help, that’s all! You want I should hook you up with Marvin The Paranoid Android?
You guys are peas in a pod. Maybe you could borrow his Gary Larsen “Monster Snorkel” for when you’re huddling, paralysed with fear beneath your doonah at night so that you can breathe better.
Guarantee if it had boobs your son would have noticed
Do you think Liz Prime (labor for Cowan)
will make it into the ministry so we will
have a Prime Minister and Minister Prime?
My favourite so far;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jEaBbO9Os&feature=PlayList&p=E2646E76131DA9DB&index=39
Especially when the Indonesians can point the finger at a number of senior Australian officers and their political masters who all appear to have a war crimes case to answer.
Add in that the fate of the Bali bombers, and our drug mules, Corby included, are also being decided in the next few months and I think it’ll be a long time before the coroner’s findings see the light of day again.
TofK@346
I was at the Zochling/Mad Monk debate. The Mad Monk most definitely uttered those words on the tape, and it was in the context that SerfChoices was a superior option for employment as compared to anything prior to SerfChoices. None of it looked like or joke, after all it’s Liberal Party policy. For some of us all of Liberal Party policy is a joke, in this case The Mad Monk was serious.
The moderator did ask questions, of both Hugh and The Mad Monk, then Hugh and Mad Monk asked a question of each other, and some time was then given to the floor which was muscled by the Tory Todgers, most of whom don’t understand what is meant by question.
The Mad Monk place particuler emphasis on a Liberal Party concept that poverty is self inflicted, I came away from that meeting that is firmly a plank of Liberal Policy which will be incoporated and implemented.
Dr Good @ 406
Maybe make her Ms Prime, Minister for Primary Industry assisting the Prime Minister
And now the Libs are creating b*llsh*t about the charter of budget “honesty”, saying the ALP has missed the deadline:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093475.htm
hmmm lets have a look at the charter:
SECT 29 Requests for costing of election commitments
(1) During the caretaker period for a general election:
(a) the Prime Minister may request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Government policies; and
(b) the Leader of the Opposition may, subject to subclause (4), request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Opposition policies.
(2) A request is to:
(a) be in writing; and
(b) outline fully the policy to be costed, giving relevant details; and
(c) state the purpose or intention of the policy.
(3) A request by the Prime Minister is to be given to the responsible Secretaries.
(4) A request by the Leader of the Opposition is to be given to the Prime Minister, who may then agree to refer it to the responsible Secretaries. The responsible Secretaries are not obliged or authorised to take any action in relation to the request unless the Prime Minister has referred the request to them.
(5) The Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition may, at any time, withdraw a request that he or she has made. A withdrawal by the Prime Minister is to be by notice in writing given to the responsible Secretaries. A withdrawal by the Leader of the Opposition is to be by notice in writing given to the Prime Minister, who is to notify the responsible Secretaries of the withdrawal.
Anyone see any mention of deadlines?
And don’t you love how the ALP has to give it to the PM? What a crock.
http://scaleplus.law.gov.au/html/pasteact/2/3115/0/PA000460.htm
Dr Good
Don’t forget Sub Prime Minister Costello.
Labor need to get the Abbot footage in an ad to make up for the poor media coverage…
To steal (and bastardise) a Monty Python classic – who do we declare the Minister of Funny Talks? The candidates are;
The Mad Monk.
The Idiot Skateboarder
The Rodent
When voting, consider which one do you believe crafted the most imaginative, but least plausible explanation for the phantom IR discussion. The judges decision will be final (unless you can convince me that I didn’t really say that!)…
The odds on Betfair right now are ALP 1.33 / LIB 3.85.
This means that Labor have as much chance as what Geelong had, and a better chance than Storm, winning their respective grand finals.
The reason LIB are still at 3.85 which converts to an adjusted probability of 25% (many bloggers believe their chances are much less) is because of the TRUSTWORTHY OF THE POLLS.
If you believe the polls are completely full proof, then a 33% gain on your investment for 8 days work is an outstanding investment.
The real question is – How much faith do you have in the polls?
Look, i don’t know if this has been mentioned, but they played the mad monk footage tonight on channel 9 news….
403 Crikey Whitey
Yes, I know that one of the Libs has been gunning for the idea of reviving a Jervis Bay nuclear power plant, but I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t have a show. The site they’re talking about is not only national park (as are the waters around it) but has also been designated as Aboriginal land, so they’d have to mount an NT-style invasion to get over that little hurdle. Mind you, I wouldn’t entirely put it past them. Another good reason to vote them out!
The guy who put $70,000 on labor stands to make a tidy $23,000 profit. If I had that amount lying around I’d put it on too..
They didn’t play it on 9 Adelaide unfortunately.
I just watch the new Labor ad on their website, all I can is that the guy in the ad is just my type! And I know he is my partner’s type to, so I better have my partner watch the ad, just to make sure he does vote Labor.
Yo Ho
Not in Sydney they didn’t. 7 and 9 both left it out. Which city are you in..?
Sorry all….i’m in Canberra. I thought i saw it on the Sydney edition (we get it before ours) but it was just on the local down here….the only people of interest that would have those in Eden-monaro
Although they did use it to bust Gary Humphries chops…
Although they did use it to bust Gary Humphries chops…
jenny
jervis bay is part of the ACT
another site mentioned is boydtown (near eden)
another 21 to find
hattip to arbie and steve re sites
LOL
Abbott claims the tape was edited to twist his words. Releases transcript of what he actually said. Transcript is exactly the same as what is on the tape!
Still he may have fooled a couple of 2 yo kids with this nonsense. Pity they’re not old enough to vote.
It’s a good ad, Kooyong Will.
Bernie Banton gravely ill as Hardy continue legal charade.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/bernie-banton-gravely-ill/2007/11/16/1194766911210.html
Sean I know somebody who had a spare $18k around and stands to make $6k.
That is the $64m question. How much faith can you have in the polls?
Let’s see what I’ve missed… hmmmm I think I’ve seen these before;
LTEP being very cautious, others upset about his pessimism
More on who’s the most attractive female pollie
Serfchoices debate
The Rodent getting caught lying and cheating again
Where will the nuclear plants go
The only thing I can intelligently add to this is to refer to the bulletin article
Mia Handshin – Sturt (Labor)
A favourite among political journalists, who, for some reason, bemoan the fact that political photos so are so often shot from the shoulders upwards, Mia is an Arts/Law graduate from Adelaide University, whose “ability to connect across generations has also been acknowledged, particularly when named an Ambassador for the International Year of Older Person’s.” Dirty old bastards.
Yes, those “above shoulder” shots really don’t do her justice!
Of course the polls are correct aren’t they Centre?
There’s no reason that the polls would just all of a sudden all be wrong in this election when they’ve been right in the past. Not 4 different polling companies over a period of over a year.
I still wouldn’t bet $18k though… when you gamble you always lose in the end.
Mad Monk video plays on ABC TV news Sydney. “Jim Middleton ” … been a dog of a week for the PM … ” Didn’t play Howard … “he didn’t say that …” re MM.
Love this analysis of The Age and The Oz done on Crikey:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-and-Sports/20071116-The-Age-v-The-Oz-very-different-election-coverage.html
Best line:
“An entertaining sidelight in all this is what might be called the Shana factor. This refers to Dennis Shanahan’s efforts in The Australian to put the most positive spin on Newspoll results for John Howard.”
432 [… been a dog of a week for the PM ]
Been a dog of a twelve year period since the PM got into office, did he mention that?
Crikey says that there are not many Labor posters in Lindsay. So I went to the Labor campaign office to organise for some to be put up (managed to talk sugar daddy around) outside our place. Also picked up some leaflets for our street which has not been leafleted by Labor since the campaign started. Hope everyone has a Rudd poster on their lawn!
Story on Blair vs Cornes coming up tonight on TT in Adelaide. Should be interesting. Not a lot of love lost there.
318
Burgey Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
“Now Mark Vaille is on radio saying the auditor general was trying to alter the election and that the caretaker provisions might be extended to public servants.
What a f*cking joke. The sooner he gets on his skateboard the better.
No wonder they’ve politicise dthe public service so much. The remaining public servants who are independent ge treated like that when they tell it like it is.”
My recollection is that it was Kennet trying to nobble The Vic Auditor General that started the tide that turned into a tsunami in 1999. I think in this case it’s the reef that turns a big wave into a murderous breaker
Abbott was shown on the ABC news here in Sydney though …….
Well LTEP, I must confess that I’m not a real polls expert although I am a betting expert. I have already backed Labor solidly three times averaging 1.87. It could be tempting to have one more go but I may sit.
OK let’s play “What the Libs need to do to win from here”.
Any takers?
How about “What the ALP would need to do to lose from here”
Hey, I didn’t say it was an easy game.
Derek
I tend to scan the commercial news for coverage cos thats what most of the swingers are watching – having watched Home and Away and before moving onto This Day Tonight, Bert Newton specials and American crime dramas…
Replace JHo with Jennifer Hawkins
We live in a safe Labor seat (Werriwa) but even here I am starting to see ALP posters going up. A local Chinese restaurant on Camden Valley Way has about 12 up on the front of their place on about every spare piece of grass surrounding the car park. I also saw heaps of flyers at the Post Office in West Hoxton of all places. I queried the postmaster about it when I was in there earlier this week and asked her about the “caretaker” conventions. I didn’t want her to get into trouble or anything. She told me she knew all about the caretaker conventions and said that they were an independant licensee so not directly AusPost, a private business having purchased a franchise. For them the caretaker conventions don’t apply. I smiled and said “good on you” as I left the PO
The ANAO report says nothing that has not been known to public servants struggling to retain the integrity of grants processes for the last few years. finally it is getting some attention. The report includes evidence of the egregious role of the prime Minister’s office. This is reason enough for a change of government.
Rudd and the media or why Rove and not Insiders?
http://ozvotes.blogspot.com/2007/11/rudd-vs-media.html
TT report on Nicole Cornes VERY positive. Blair has been very vocal in her attacks on Cornes so it was very brave to go mano-a-mano. Blair was asked for a summary after of Cornes and was glowing. Described Cornes’s performance as “flawless”. Could get her over the line. TT would be a graet demographic for swinging voters and Blair is very respected. Might vote for her after all!
Taxi-driver, Hamed, took me past Michael Keenan’s office on very busy Wanneroo Road last night, and the Missos were out picketing, reminding peak hour drivers that Keenan voted to undermine their rights at work. Hamed is voting Labor. He doesn’t know any Iraqi people who would consider anything else. .
I would just like to clarify a couple of misconceptions that the polls experts have in relation to the betting.
- The accuracy of the betting market is absolutely not dependant on the amount of money that is actually bet.
- It is most definitely practical to have a situation where Labor may be short priced favourites to win the election outright but not be favourites in the most number of seats.
- Both the main election betting and the individual seats betting are equally accurate.
Sean @ 441
Ar, This Day Tonight – trouble is, you can’t get TVs with valves these days … more’s the pity.
Gippslander:
Heard a betting bloke on wireless today say McGauran’s seat of Gippsland was in play. An word? He’s a prize dork, as you probably know.
very interesting Diogenes.
Earlier in the day she was good on 5AA? Someone wrote about it here I think.
Mark Vaile was on the News today already threatening retribution to the head of the National audit office for releasing the regional grants report in the middle of an election. Presumably he’s so immersed in the culture of intimidation and control that the Govt has imposed on the public service that he seems unaware that what he is saying is disturbing. As rammed home at the AWB enquiry, the guy really is thick as a brick.
Centre, on your second point I can back that up, since I saw on some website that Labor has good odds to win Stirling even though almost 75% of the money bet on it has been for the Coalition to win. Obviously the betting agencies know something the betters don’t.
Sean, Vaile’s comments were a disgrace – it is equivalent to someone criticising the RBA for rasingin rates in the eleciton period.
And the fact Howard hasn’t disciplined him is an equal disgrace. A sham government, and corrupt party that deserves to go a decade without getting close to being back in power of even a p*ssy little local council.
450 Grog- The Today Tonight piece was about the 5AA interview but will obviously have more impact because of the Blair endorsement. “Oh the times, they are a-changin.”
I know I keep bangin on about this point but the Morgan Poll keeps up its pretence about Soft ALP voters, currently 21% of all electors feel Australia is heading in the right direction according to Morgan and are going to vote Labor (up 2% from last time). This is a soft vote according to Morgan.
My question to Morgan, given that this “Soft Vote” has not appeared to shift for over 12 months (or perhaps firm) and presumably will stay all the same up to and including the election, when Labor wins convincingly will they still be considered “Soft ALP voters”?
Some commentators may relabel these people as “Kev’s Aspirationals”.
My main contention is that these voters are not Soft ALP but rather determined to vote for a change and consider this part of the reason that Australia is heading in the right direction or alternatively feel Australia is going okay and will continue on this trajectory (perhaps at a greater rate) under Labor.
Morgan seems to be painting itself into a corner once again from which it will be seriously criticised after the election.
I’m just an occasional poster, but a very frequent lurker. I’m in Paris now and as good as that is, I’m really p***ed I’m missing this election. I’ve even set my VCR at home to record the ABC coverage, so when I return in December I can watch it all in real time after the event. A bit pathetic, I know, but I can’t help it. All I want to see is lots and lots of Ministers losing their seats and Howard looking bewildered and befuddled as he concedes. It’s not a lot to ask.
The Vaile thing is disgusting and it shows how stupid he is.
Pork barreling and mad monk IR stories on staeline now
Mathematically LTEP, it means that Labor have a greater chance of winning seats that Liberal are favourites in whereas Liberal have a less chance of winning seats that Labor are favourites in, OVERALL.
This undeniable fact can be proven with mathematical examples.
Excellent, Aristotle. Thanks.
AnthonyL, I guess the soft ALP voters are the ones not sure whether they’ll re-elect them in 2010.
Headline on The Oz site:
Vaile suggests report bias
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22769982-601,00.html
Well I guess they are the experts on it.
Finetuning the senate vote.
http://balneus.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/refining-your-senate-vote/
classic steve
Appologies if this has been posted previously but the RPP scandall is just getting worse for the Government – http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093520.htm?section=justin
I guess as the 1200 pages is being read closely by the media – more examples are emerging.
I thought you might also like to read what David “I love the liberal party” Speers has to say on his blog:- “Technically the Coalition can still win.
Coalition strategists are hopeful they can sandbag enough marginal seats to cling on.
But the signs all point to a change of government on the 24th.”
This is a big statement from him!
“Labor’s George Newhouse cites legal proof he is a valid candidate for Wentworth.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/im-in-the-clear
newhouse/2007/11/16/1194766953417.html
Try again.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/im-in-the-clear-newhouse/2007/11/16/1194766953417.html
Ah, “technically”. I guess next will be “theoretically”
Nah, more like Semaphore Flags
Along with Stone Tablets.
GB, It’s still not a good look. I don’t doubt he is “in the clear”, but he ain’t exactly Caesar’s wife on the issue.
449
Derek Corbett Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Sean @ 441
….
Gippslander:
Heard a betting bloke on wireless today say McGauran’s seat of Gippsland was in play. An word? He’s a prize dork, as you probably know.
Yes, derek. I’ve been wondering for weeks why people haven’t picked up on this.
2004 was a doubly bad year for the ALP in Gippsland. The Forestry debacle cost a lot of votes, and internal party strife in the Latrobe Valley lost more. Both these features are absent this year. Our candidate is a very presentable former mayor of Bairnsdale, while McGauran must have the lowest personal vote of any Nationals candidate. As well as being in the less inteligent part of the Parliament, he’s an absentee landlord, like his brother, who betrayed the Nats.
If there is a swing in Vic, I’d expect it to be higher in Gippsland.
BTW if you wanted a Nuclear power plant in Vic, the Gippsland lakes or the 90 mile beach would be the obvious place to put it!
John Howard on the RPP scandal:
“Can I just remind all of you that on Saturday week bureaucrats aren’t running for re-election, politicians are – we are accountable.”
___
You got that right.
After all this stuff with his nomination, I don’t think Newhouse will win Wentworth
However, if seats like Gippsland, Dawson and North Sydney are in play (as I have read at various times on this blog today), the ALP will not need Wentworth.
Why do I still think that we’re going to see another Tampa/terrorist attack/Rudd using racist slurs/nuclear holocaust/Rudd suffering from spontaneous combustion so that the ALP will lose?
I have to convince myself…….
We might actually win
I don’t understand why anyone reports on Morgan.. it seriously is a joke
Oh Isabella, you’re an idiot. Keep posting please. I laugh myself silly everytime I read your vitriolic claptrap. It’ll be all the more hilarious on November 25 when your man is GONESKI!!!
470- accountable is not a word that can be applied to Ratboy – or any of his cabinet.
Polls for the final week
Newspoll Monday?
Nielsen Thursday?
Galaxy?
All of them doing releasing one on Friday night?
LaborVoter @ 473
I agree, Morgan’s normal phone polls is usually off and so is f2f polling. Put the 2 together and it is a joke.
What today has proved is that Vaile is a complete moron.
Funneist was that Howard had to stand behind both Vaile and Abbott. I can imagine Howard coming home tonite and Janet finding him in a foetal position at the doorstep….
and it makes me smile.
Sniffing the wind, here are some potential worries, in big picture terms:
Things have gone so badly, so spectacularly, for the Coalition this week that the landscape suddenly looks utterly different to the way it has looked for weeks, even months.
Virtually all media are now starting to suggest that it’s game over. The old oft-repeated line that “you can never write Howard off” is either being dropped, or its reiteration is so mechanical as to be implausible.
So really, for the very first time, voter-land is receiving an all-pervasive message – Howard really is a goner this time.
Now that may simply feed into the herd mentality and confirm the Coalition’s fate, but is there a chance – however slight – that the undecided will say in very large numbers “don’t take us for granted, we want to be part of the process, he is the devil we know, we will confound the now conventional wisdom”?
Does anybody know why Galaxy has been so quiet
Newspoll usually releases the day of the poll. And has once or twice been really accurate.
Not sure Stephen. Are Galaxy only once a fortnight?
@479
An online poll of over 3400 ppl in todays age, revealed that a staggering 98% had already decided on who they were voting for….
Now that number of people is the usual number of respondents to their continuing polls.
For what it’s worth.
“And has once or twice been really accurate.”
Bet they won’t use that line in their marketing, Gerr!
Galaxy is the most likely to come up with the long dreaded 52-48…
whoops.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22770315-5005361,00.html
“Does anybody know why Galaxy has been so quiet” They haven’t been able to get the poll result they want I would say.
Ok earlier I aksed what would the ALP have to not win from here. Coudln’t get any takers, so I’ll give it a go.
A big hole in their costings (and a real hole, not a Peter-smirking-oops-they’ve-done-it-again-hole). It’s been my biggest fear.
And umm that’s it.
And by the by, I love how Kevin Reynolds has a big dirt file on Rudd and Gillard that he will release AFTER the election.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22769357-948,00.html
Since there’s been a few mentions of North Sydney today, I thought I’d post this snippet. A Greens volunteer dropped around this afternoon with leaflets for weekend letterboxing. She said she had been on prepoll duty in the electorate, and that “things are going very well… ESPECIALLY for Labor”.
Not sure how much to read into this, but it seems to fit with what others have said. I think we may have a contest here. As others have pointed out, North Sydney voters tend to be well-educated and like to think for themselves.
The seat has previously elected independents at both state and federal level.
Sean @ 485
I wouldn’t be so sure. They always seem to have a smaller gap on their primary votes but give less of the preferences to the Coalition.
Surely to god they can’t stuff the costings.
They have had too long to work on it.
When are the costings released?
479 Flash (Let me do a “Rudd” here) – did that scenario play out in 1996? No. Why should it now? Good question.
If Labor can’t beat this bunch of incompetent liars and bufoons at this election they never will.
I wonder if Heavy Kevvie is thinking that by threatening to release it AFTER the poll that Rudd will speed up the revocation of the ABCC.
Oh and CH 9 News EVERY ad break is a positive ALP ad concentrating on Stirling and Cowan. Not a lib ad to be seen.
North Sydney is the ULTIMATE doctors’ wives seat. And Bailey is a big climate change believer – and it dovetails nicely into his weatherman persona.
If we can keep talking about Climate Change and Workchoices then Hockey will continue to squirm.
Voters don’t swing against the tide.
If the polls are still 54-55 on Tuesday it will be a rout (barring that unforseen occurrance which everyone think may happen but no one can actually say what it could be)
I touted nuclear war within Iran earlier – and the resultant imposition of martial law.
Anyone got a more likely one?
493 adrian – you got it in one.
@497
Mass hypnosis by Aliens as happened in 2004, 2001, 1998 and 1996.
Gary Bruce.. The simple answer is that the economy is in far better shape now than in 1996.
Grog
Can’t think of anything short of Rudd being caught naked with a nun.
I’m at the point now where I’ll be a tad disappointed if its not a massacre – ministers falling like nine pins, evacuations from the wentworth hotel rooftop, Dolly on the floor throwing a tantrum, the smirk finally letting go and felling the rodent with a head butt…..carnage, high drama, the young libs running for their lives, shanaghan carried off by the mob..
I’m sure its not too much to hope for…
Actually Rudd could get real cocky and decide to see if he can do a 93 in reverse.
So he’ll announce he’s going to put a GST on food – but only birthday cakes, and then he’s going to get Willesee out of retirement and dare him to ask him questions about it.
What would it take for Labor to lose?
Quite possibly, if Kevin Rudd did a Howard Dead, and showed a hitherto-unseen side of his personality. As in, the pressure got to him, and he had a Howard Dean style moment, which could unnerve a lot of swinging voters.
But that seems very unlikely. His level of self-control seems phenomenal and, given the way this week has gone, he can surely begin to relax a little. (Not appearing on Insiders might be part of that strategy, unless he just wants to go to church).
Flash… Howard’s already tried the “wake up voters” thing with his ‘annihilation’ speech earlier this year. It didn’t work then… it’s wishful thinking to think people don’t already know that if they vote Labor then Howard will be gone.
FLash:
“but is there a chance – however slight – that the undecided will say in very large numbers “don’t take us for granted, we want to be part of the process,”
For this to happen, the undecided would have to also feel as though the ALP (meaning Rudd) has taken them for granted. And let’s be honest, there is no evidence that that feeling exists.
Liz Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Your forgiving, my wife wants to see tears.
@503
Imagine Rudd doing a full blown Howard Dean….That would be HILARIOUS!
507 Gerr – I’m betting Mandarin would be involved!
F*ck that
I want to see Howard and Janet’s smouldering corpses on the lawn outside the bunker before they get crushed by a soviet tank…..
Is it too much to ask!??!?!?!
LTEP @ 23
“I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence.”
Isn’t “will just get over the line” the same thing as winning? Also what is the “objective evidence” of this? I can’t find any objective evidence of this – certainly not the polls nor even in the more conservative individual seat betting which on average are predicting that Labor will win around 77-79 seats.
LTEP for once I’d really like it if you can offer objective evidence of what you assert. To date you haven’t done this because that evidence simply doesn’t exist.
Don’t know if it has been mentioned:
Tomorrow Rudd will in South Australia at the Prospect Town Hall at 12:30.
Howard CAN NOT WIN.
Why are we even talking about it? The winning on 48-49% TPP is crap it will not happen.
In fact Rudd can win with 49% TPP.
Get used to it – we will at last have a PM in the Lodge.