Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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Dan
RE: worst. The whole suppurating lot, kit and karboodle. They are all tarred with the same brush – heartless idealogues, but top vote goes to Howard (racism, lies) Ruddock (undermining the rule of law) Reith, thuggery … Andrews … the rest are just ordinary lib drongoes. The defining thing is lies, through cabinet.
Good for Nicole! Good for Labor! The wave of the future.
I have until now thought Labor would win, by 10 seats
I was wrong.
It will be more than that.
Yes I hate Howard. He has brought out the worst aspects of the Australian character. But I have not had this level of confidence before an election since 1983.
650 I thought you were wrong once Diogenes but I was mistaken.
ShowsOn,
We live in extreme SW Sydney. You can’t go any further west from where I am without running into the odd country town or two, then Warragamba dam. We have Telstra and there is no problem at all with getting a 3rd party internet provider into the house. Why don’t you give them a call and at least explore your options?
http://www.internode.on.net/
I checked their phone numbers and the national is 13.66.33 but they have a special number for Adelaide metro and it is – 08 8228 2999.
Since they have an Adelaide special number, I am sure that they can help you out.
Turning in now, let me know what they tell you after you have had time to talk to them, good luck
:) We have had them for some time now and have been quite happy with them.
Very senior libs are predicting a cliffhanger. Also, Rudd’s vote is apparently slipping in Qld based on private polling.
We may not know the outcome on Sat night they say.
The simple fact is the bookies don’t get elections wrong esp if the incumbent govt are rank outsiders.
Rudd will win and straight away will do the responsible thing and curtail the promised tax cuts and invest in essential infrastructure projects.
Also, Labor staffers will see the true K Rudd (know as Dr Death and for being an out and out B**tard in qld).
So what I say. At least he won’t declare war on another country, rip off the poor and needy or rekindle our racist past.
Personally, the govt have failed to land a glove on Rudd all year and this will come home to roost; firstly with a Tasmania clean sweep. Antony Green will call it all over by 7.45pm
What did ‘83 feel like? Was it like a bonus, considering the Liberals did so well at the 1980 election.
Was everyone kind of shocked that Labor had turned it around so quickly? Or did it seem inevitable because the Liberals spent 3 years doing bugger all, and Hawke was such a credible leader?
“As soon as Keitel had gone,Wenck called his staff together and told them he had no intention of leading them to Berlin. He would hold onto his positions on the Elbe …. in order to get out every solider and civilian who could make it”
Page 368 – The Fall of Berlin by Anthony Read and David Fisher
Grog,
I like your thinking, but I would do one other thing with our Lord Anthony Green’s calculator, based on the Newspoll disclaimer that ACT polling is conducted and included in NSW votes and TAS polling is done but spread over all other states
I’d take between 0.2% -0,5% swing to the ALP out of the NSW swing and give it to the ACT (which incidently doesn’t give them an extra seat because they already have both int he ACT)
Now reduce the NSW swing by the amount you just gave to he ACT.
Now estiamte the tasmania state swing (what’s going on down there by the way, is everyone baptised as a Labor voter????) and pull back all the other states by about 0.1- 0.3%.
What does that do? are we having fun yet?
OK, just got off phone with my senior Liberal staffer mate.
“Things are out of control.
Basically there were two tranches. The first was that we’d lose about 8-10 seats on a 3-4% swing. In the early days that’s what we hoped would happen. We hoped to hang on by 4-6 seats.
What’s happening is that the sky is falling.
Now the 2nd tranche is gone. This is the 10 seats we’d lose in a 4-6% swing.
We’re staring down the barrel at a 20 seat loss.
And it hans’t reached bottom yet. We’re still dropping. Something’s going desperately wrong.
It may come back in the last week., and I’m sure it will, but we’re looking at a 6-7% swing nationwide, which is a 46-54 tpp. I think it will be 45-55.
It’s bad, really bad.”
MORE TO COME
Just saw an ad for Gary Nairn, that mentions: “Gary Nairn and John Howard are a strong team that will go for growth in Eden Monaro”
First time I’ve heard Howard mentioned in a Lib ad.
The use of the Go For Growth though makes it sound like an ad from the first week that they forgot to ditch.
Edstjo, do you think the dessicated one will finally accept responsibility for their defeat or will he blame Tip. LOL
Adam – It has to be Dolly Downer. Any foreign minister who suggests (as he did at the last election) that its okay for other countries to invade your nation’s sovereign territory in pursuit of terrorists has to be off with the fairies.
Diogenes, read back. Much earlier posts, Nicole with the Madam.
Oh, I forgot to explain. When I first got broadband I went through internode. They were extremely helpful and got Telstra to do all sorts of additional tests on my phone line. The problem was Internode couldn’t guarantee that I would get even 128 Kbps via ADSL down my phone lines, that’s how bad they are! Even when I used dial up a 56K modem would rarely connect faster than 33.6K!
Whereas the cable internet I have is 4 – 7 Mb/s depending on how many people are home watching Foxtel, BUT, it is only 12 GB a month, whereas the same ADSL2 plans give double that.
Greens in the ACT are moving from basic coverage of all polling stations as in 2004 to several people on each booth. Great turn out for the briefing last night. Just may be there is a real chance for Kerrie Tucker to knock over Gary Humphries for the second senate seat.
I thought you’d be reading about the different stages of psycho-sexual development.
Crikey, Crikey
619 red wombat
This year. The year of living dangerously.
I just got off the phone to my Labor mate and boy is he really really unhappy.
He told me the word has been issued by Dear Leader Kevin, each MP/trade union/party secretary will be allowed only one job for a relative/ f.buddy or partner in the new Federal government.
Hope so!
There was a report in today’s Oz that the coalition have given up any hope of saving Ron Boswell in QLD. They think the last seat will go to either Family First or the Greens, with the latter the favourite.
??? maybe I got my calculations wrong on your instructions, but I end up with the ALP getting 85 seats.
Given 2-3 weeks ago I predicted only 80, I more than having fun (and btw that’s with keeping Vic at 0% swing)
I presume because he had to speak to you on the phone.
618 Damian- Actually Mengele was not very scary. He was considered by many of the Auschwitz prisoners as the nicest of the doctors. He was especially liked by the children. He used to play with them, feed them and then takes them for a ride in the ambulance. The only problem was he dropped them off at the crematorium. Seem to remember a recent youtube of a nasty man pretending to be nice to a disabled child.
670 But of course – Labor is nothing if not egalitarian. “From each according to their ability – to each according to their need”
MORE FROM MY LIB MATE.
“There are two main things that Labor’s running on. John’s too old, and he doesn’t understand working families.
They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.
“WorkChoices is biting terribly. Abbott blew himself up for the 5th consecutive time in the election.”
“Brian has recycled the last election strategy. He says you can’t trust Rudd, but he comes across as a credible candidate.”
“They (Labor) did a real stunt (about not spending more) – but it’s worked.
I asked, will Howard lose Bennlog? “On current polling, yes”
Costello’s camp is already saying this is all because of John. “if he’d gone we could have avoided this”.
Howard’s camp is saying “You’ve spent the past couple of years insisting that generational change was needed. So Labor’s said ‘great, we’ll pick that up and run with it.”
MORE TO COME
668 mad cow
And when today’s Telstra looked it up, said what bigpond address?
Crikey Whitey at? I won’t even ask. Intense discussion.
I recommended Pollbludger and Possum.
Might have to change my blog name, in due season.
Eddy,
That would be Comrade Kevin. I love him so much the band of my underpants are plastered with his initials….. you should see them when I’m ‘Going for Growth’
Shows On 673. LOL
Have you seen the film of the same name? It’s really good:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086617/
One of the only films I know where a female actor plays a man, but who’s character isn’t a cross dresser / transexual / transgender.
The director simply thought she was the best person for the part!
ESJ, just got off the phone with my Liberal mate, and boy is he really, really unhappy, after the election there is only one staff position avaliable in Campbell Newman’s office, and it’s already taken.
Shouldn’t have said that either. Loose lips.
Chris in LDN – perhaps you could have KevinO7 tattooed on your bottom and post it on Youtube. A novel way of demonstrating your heroic and comradely fervour for the cause!
Voterboy of over the Water,
How does your Liberal staffer mate like you running off to the nearest blog to dish the dirt on the Liberals internal polling?
.
.
Edward,
Dr. Stumpfegger can’t decide whether to test the cyanide capsule on Blondi or Downer. Cruelty to animals either way he goes. Must be getting tough in the Bunker.
And I got the loaf of bread and milk tonight and the 80 year old lady in the corner store said “Edward, My goodness those Labor attack ads are really cutting through I think the Liberals will collapse next week”
681 [ESJ, just got off the phone with my Liberal mate, and boy is he really, really unhappy, after the election there is only one staff position avaliable in Campbell Newman’s office, and it’s already taken.]
Tell him to phone the Member for Clayfield’s office there could be a job going there when Flegg gets rolled after the Federal Election is over.
Squiggle @ 584 – except in 1998 ALP was ahead on TPP vote. so i think the answer is “with respect, no”.
VBOW – keep it coming. I think many here will not fully exhail until Anthony Green calls it – but a vision of panic in the bunker is soothing.
Edward,
Youtube doesn’t allow vids like that – and I doubt anyone apart from Family First voters would see it on xtube or pornotube……
Paul K,
I didnt know but he tested the capsules on Blondi’s bitches first then Blondi.
# 657 ‘83 felt great – We were in recession (funny how Howard was treasurer) and also had a drought – booting out the libs was a hoot!
Looking forward to 24th November
683 That may be taking comradeship to an extreme. Probably best to leave the mad monk to make a virtual ass of himself. He does it so well.
MORE FROM THE TORY BUNKER…
“11 years ago in 96, we were in govt nationally and 8 out of 9 states/territories. Next week we’re going to be in none.”
“If we lose by as much as we’re looking at, there’ll be the usual dignified bloodbath that the Liberal Party usually indulges in after a loss.
“Labor’s campiagn has been very impressive. They’ve achieved a lot in a very short period of time.”
On the party organisation. “If the swing is big enough, it could rupture us. The whole leadership could go – it would be terrible – very hard for the party to regroup. We’ve bled so much out of the states, financially, in terms of talent. Then we’d turn on each other, the usual public recriminations, inquiries, election post-mortems.
“We’re looking at an 8 seat loss here (NSW) at the moment”.
Can they pull back? “Knowing our people they’ll go for the big scandals – do the dump.”
Is there anything out there? “I don’t know. But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further.”
658 ESJ-Reichhelm (Wenck’s chief of staff) re Keitels rant to Wenck and he about saving Berlin, “We let him talk and we let him leave”.
Do you prefer full cream (~3.5%), skimmer (~1.5%), low fat (~1%), or no fat (>0.1%) milk?
V.good line Diogenes.
some one up in this stream said noice things about Ms Cornes. Thank you.
I will no longer be happy with a close win
I will be very disappointed without a ninety ++ result.
Fonzie, I don’t know what nick you are using, I hope sometimes it is Tabitha … but I hope you show yourself in the next week.
I must say, should Labor win (its still up in the air people), one thing I will look foward to seeing is Brian Loughnane addressing the press club discussing how the Liberals lost and why it all went wrong. Its nice seeing contemptable bastards eat humble pie.
Exactly. The LNP do not have a primary of 43% as per the last AC Nielsen, just noise. And things if anything are now getting worse for the LNP. 54/46 may be end up being the best case scenario for Howard if they can’t stop this foot shooting in the next 5 days.
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