Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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“684
ND Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Voterboy of over the Water,
How does your Liberal staffer mate like you running off to the nearest blog to dish the dirt on the Liberals internal polling?”
You know – I don’t think he’s twigged. And if he does, well, he knows me well enough to know it’s the sort of underhanded thing I’d do.
(as for whether this stuff is based on internal polling, I don’t think he sees the stuff, but he certainly has enough conversations with people who do).
Squiggle
I’d say labor 92 minimum and up to a possible 117.
Why would anyone vote for the libs.
Work Choices, Abbott on video says they knew the protections and fairness would go but people can always leave the job and get another one if they don’t like it.
Hockey in an interview says AWA’s are being offered on a take it or leave basis and if people don’t like the AWA they are offered they can go get another job.
People know that there is no way the government will keep the Fairness Test if they get back in, it is unworkable.
I was in one of the big supermarkets today and overheard two workers there, one said she was being pressured into signing an agreement that she didn’t want but may have to as she could go through all the stress of looking for another job.
The big 2 employ about 600,000 between them, every $10 per week they can cut off the wage means an extra $300 million in profit for them and $10 less for a struggling family.
I was also talking to a work mate who said his son did a 14 hour straight shift overnight moving displays around at a small retailer, flat $12 per hour no penalties, dad wnet down later to the bloke and said he could have slipped them a bit extra as he would have saved a motza by not getting in professional movers. Result no more shifts. Gotta remember Abbotts advice, “A bad boss is better than no boss”.
Economic managment, Howard has given us ten interest rate increases in a row, last week he waved the white flag on inflation, as many papers reported, and admitted he had no policies to control it, it was all due to the drought and oil prices.
Last 2 weeks Howard announces spending plans to ensure we will get an 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th and probably fifteenth increase in interest rates.
Then the Audit office releases details on how the govt approved over $300 million in spending without any submissions in some cases. Howard says the govt doesn’t have to accept advice of the public servants but how can there be any advice when there aren’t any submissions or applications.
Health, Abbot admitted they have been underfunding health for years and Mersey shows they cannot administer and cost even one hospital, let alone a whole national system.
The environment, still denying climate change, and their water plan was drawn up in great haste without costing from any area of the government.
Education, great white elephant technical colleges that are part of the regional pork barrelling exercise. and Bishop recently announced the scrapping of a national curriculim.
Indigenous affairs, well not many care about that, the intervention inthe NT is all about getting the land off the aboriginals so that they can dumping the nuclear waste there.
Nuclear power, gauranteed Australia will get at least 25, won’t tell us wher though, and a lot sooner than most realise, the sites will be picked and given to business in the next 2 years and set in iron clad contract that will cost billions to break. No policy on compensation for home owners who will see their house values plumment when the sites are announced.
We are seeing polls around the 56 mark this week, before labors policy launch, they will be aorund the 58 mark next week, Howard is a poor preformer in campaigns.
re earlier comments about vote shifter in the last week. well try this one: SECRET LABOR PLAN : CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON THE FAMILY HOME!!! given with the usual shrill of the desperate. Drop it on friday am wake up to the shrill headlines radio and TV reports no time to rebut etc etc. walk into polling booth on saturday with that fresh in your mind… bingo another 3 years of the rodent. yes the rodent. now way will he retire. he wants menzies’ record.
no way you say. well that’s exactly what they did in the 1980 election. cost hayden the primeministership. hawke had to specifically reject it in the 83 policy speech.
I don’t think you can discount two minute Tim Fischer with his avuncular “charm” ensuring the politicising of the high court.
And for total uselessness: Pat Farmer
83 was my first ever voting election (I voted liberal btw). I knew nothing about politics. I remember Fraser saying that if Labor wins you will have to take your money out of the bank and hide it under your bed.
I still don’t know what the hell he was talking about!
The old standard is that governments lose elections.
In hindsight, that’s what they’ll say about this one too:
Workchoices, Iraq, slow reaction to climate change, 10 interest rates rises in a row, RPP scandal, Haneef bungle, Equine Flu bungle, Howard.
Saying govt’s lose them and just looking at the unemployment rate, ignores everything else they can do to lose it.
Rudd will also get credit (and rightly so), but in 6-9 years time when people are wondering if the polls will replicate the 07 election, people (like us) will say, no the situation was unique then and will then will list off all of the above.
EStJ, I see you have reached stage 5. Good for you! I’m sure it’s a relief. It’s better than farting in the wind. Much more pleasant to be around too..
cheers,
Alan H
Worst parliamentary speaker – Pat Farmer or Danna Vale?
He was barking in the previous thread, what stage is that? 4.5?
668 mad cow.
Crikey, Crikey
Think I misunderstood your same comment, earlier Nielsen, think, thread.
What say you.
This is faster, cheap and free all to me. Bail out cost in a year will be 180.
Rod Cameron on Lateline, talking down Labor’s chances. With Hewson.
Oh Alan H,
I thought you left 2 days ago? Whats wrong are you lonely?
Cheers,
EStJ
Rod Cameron and Hewson on LL
705 [I still don’t know what the hell he was talking about!]
Don’t worry about it Centre, Fraser had no idea what he was talking about either.
705 neither did he!
Edward, I’ll leave the gallows humour to you since you’re so good at it. I’m a little pooped after spending all day in a campaign office explaining to old ladies on the phone how to fill in their postal votes. They’re very keen to do you lot in, but good. Congratulations on Rortsgate II, by the way. Having the same scandal run at two successive elections takes real imagination.
Only Blondi was given the cyanide, by the way. Fritz Tornow took the pups up to the garden and shot them.
And now for my omnibus edition… (with spelling corrected) – William – will send some cash over to pay for the bandwidth…
OK, just got off phone with my senior Liberal staffer mate.
“Things are out of control.
Basically there were two tranches. The first was that we’d lose about 8-10 seats on a 3-4% swing. In the early days that’s what we hoped would happen. We hoped to hang on by 4-6 seats.
What’s happening is that the sky is falling.
Now the 2nd tranche is gone. This is the 10 seats we’d lose in a 4-6% swing.
We’re staring down the barrel at a 20 seat loss.
And it hasn’t reached bottom yet. We’re still dropping. Something’s going desperately wrong.
It may come back in the last week., and I’m sure it will, but we’re looking at a 6-7% swing nationwide, which is a 46-54 tpp. I think it will be 45-55.
It’s bad, really bad.
There are two main things that Labor’s running on. John’s too old, and he doesn’t understand working families.
They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.
WorkChoices is biting terribly. Abbott blew himself up for the 5th consecutive time in the election.
Brian has recycled the last election strategy. He says you can’t trust Rudd, but he comes across as a credible candidate.
They (Labor) did a real stunt (about not spending more) – but it’s worked.
I asked, will Howard lose Bennelong? “On current polling, yes”
Costello’s camp is already saying this is all because of John. “if he’d gone we could have avoided this”.
Howard’s camp is saying “You’ve spent the past couple of years insisting that generational change was needed. So Labor’s said ‘great, we’ll pick that up and run with it.”
“11 years ago in 96, we were in govt nationally and 8 out of 9 states/territories. Next week we’re going to be in none.”
If we lose by as much as we’re looking at, there’ll be the usual dignified bloodbath that the Liberal Party usually indulges in after a loss.
Labor’s campaign has been very impressive. They’ve achieved a lot in a very short period of time.”
On the party organisation. “If the swing is big enough, it could rupture us. The whole leadership could go – it would be terrible – very hard for the party to regroup. We’ve bled so much out of the states, financially, in terms of talent. Then we’d turn on each other, the usual public recriminations, inquiries, election post-mortems.
“We’re looking at an 8 seat loss here (NSW) at the moment”.
Can they pull back? “Knowing our people they’ll go for the big scandals – do the dump.”
Is there anything out there? “I don’t know. But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further.”
ESJ- I think that line sums up the campaign. People seem to be politely listening to Howard (witness the apologetic tone of the Labor ads complaining about Howard) and now they are going to let him leave. They dont seem to hate him the way many on this site, myself included, do. I repeatedly bring up Haneef, AWB, WMD, SIEV etc when they say “Oh he’s not so bad” and they just go quiet for a while and say “But the economy’s going well”. And Rudd has learnt from past Labor mistakes. It’s no good making the Howard Haters hate him even more, they are already going to vote for you. That’s why I am yet to hear the words Haneef, AWB, WMD, SIEV etc in any significant way by Rudd.
Oh thank something that they booted Kroger.
Hewson is refreshingly honest, except that a lot of his commentary seems to be driven by still open wounds.
parramatters, Snap!
I imagine Labor will have people manning the radio and tv waves to pick up any last minute dirty tricks.
As an ex-Liberal supporter let me say there will be nothing dignified about it and that’s the way it should be. We’re playing for big bickies and it will be survival of the fittest. Maybe if Labor had been more ruthless and had proper bloodbath after the ‘96 election instead of going with ex-Keating Ministers they wouldn’t have had to wait in Opposition for so long. For anyone saying that the Libs will be finished knows nothing about politics.
What big scandals?
Well whatever it is, no doubt Abbott will be involved.
Say, where is Glen? It is well past his bedtime, but.
ESJ… were you meant to be the plagiariser a few weeks back? I swear I struggle to keep up with all the accusations thrown around on this site.
Hewson is a sore sore loser. I’m sure the Libs think of him like Labor people think of Latham.
Diogenes, any person that listens and then quietly says something about the economy is going to vote Liberal. They’re just being polite and humouring you. Most people are generally unconfrontational and avoid arguing over politics.
Unedited version of Abbott’s gaffe being shown on LL. No diff.
Galaxy 53-47 according to LL! Is this teh Narrowing(tm)???
I think Diogenes,
The reasons the Liberals will lose is Its time and to a lesser degree WorkChoices. The implementation was poor and it allowed the unions to get away with demonising it.
Having said that -the last week factor and the uninterested middle may in an outside chance allow JWH to sneak back.
I guess we will know by next Saturday just how potent these factors are!
Adam,
You are correct and I am wrong. Seargeant Tornow did indeed shoot Blondi’s bitches and gave lethal injections to Eva Braun’s 2 dogs but the book doesnt say what type of dog.
VBOW keep them coming. I love to see how their minds work
Galaxy marginal poll to be released on Sunday shows Labor 53/47 on Lateline
In the about 80 polls since Rudd became Leader of the ALP, the highest TPP for the coalition has been 47% on 3 occasions, followed by 46% on 5 occasions. (of those 8 high figures 4 have been in Galaxy polls, which overall appear to have a slight bias towards the coalition).
There does appear to have been a narrowing of sorts, from around 42% in the Feb-May period, foloowed quickly by a rise to an average around 44% in the May-Oct period and a further slight rise to 45-46% over the last few weeks.
On the face of it the best TPP for the coalition would seem to be 47%, while a more probable result is around 45-46%. ANY of these would result in a landslide for Labor!
Of course the game’s never over until the fat lady does her stuff, however I for one am very happy to be in the red corner for the first time in nearly 12 long years.
726 [Most people are generally unconfrontational and avoid arguing over politics.]
The exception is after the tenth interest rise, when the people say enough of this lunacy.
Of course it is different! Can’t you tell that Labor got George Lucas to add some tie fighters and light sabers to it!
Everyone knows that isn’t really Abbott, it is CGI. The camera lies, there is no truth etc, etc.
He’s handing out Liberal how to vote cards – thought he’d get ready early.
Don’t they save that bile for Fraser?
LTEP,
I dont know maybe (about the plagiarism accusation), I seem to be attracting this nutty peanut gallery that likes to pop up and attack, but thats ok as PJK used to say the dogs are barking but the caravan moves on
53-47 in key marginals? I’ll take that!
Why don’t Galaxy do a real poll?? Are they afraid of the result?
#728. Marginal polling so that’s a good result.
Lol Adam,
Yes manufactured polling – of course! A conspiracy!
It’s also bad policy. But I agree with you that the coalition are hopeless politicians. Howard believed his own hype, which was enough to doom the whole ship.
Thanks VBOW.
The primaries were odd though. I’m pretty sure (it only flashed) that Libs ahead 43-42 on primaries, with 11% for Greens.
I’m not watching lateline at the moment… is it a national poll, or just marginals?
Just marginals
Just got off the phone with Democrats HQ.
No one was there. Spoke to a cleaner about the cricket.
From memory you are in S.A.
Rudd will be at the Prospect Town Hall tomorrow at 12:30.
Well that’s alright then. I think Labor would be pretty happy with that.
53/47 in marginals is perfect. Leaves % for the wider margins.
“But throwing money’s not working, so they might have to crank up the negative a little further”
Thats the thing to watch over the last week. Do they risk an even bigger defeat by going for “Kev, the nun and the goat” story – or do they go for damage control and try to limit things to 20 seats.
Not sure how they could switch to damage control now. Beasely did it in 2001 (and prevented a wipeout) but that was a long way out from the election.
11% for the Greens? purleeze.
What was this, Tasmania only?
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