Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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LOL at Lefty E at 745
And thanks VBotW, I won’t need my valium today now……
A short story with poor ending.
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=40
Did the cleaner have any tip for Bennelong?
Still wondering if The Rodent is going to get Stanley Bruced.
726 LTEP- I am under no illusion that any of them will be swayed by my arguments and fully expect each of them to vote Lib. The reason I do it is to try to understand the way they think. It is somewhat confused by the fact whilst I am their boss and can sack them now under Serfchoices, I am trying to arguing against a policy that is meant to favour me and hurt them! In vain!
You’d need to know which marginals they polled, in what states, how big was the sample etc?
I don’t live in a marginal, I don’t know what’s it like to be bombarded day after day with mail, direct marketing, spending promises etc. I’m guessing the Liberals are doing a damn lot of this currently. Their only hope is to sandbag all the marginals they can save, and force Rudd to have to win seats higher up on the pendulum.
Yes they love the omnibus in the UK. We could watch a whole week of Home and Away on saturday if we were trashed.
“They’ve convinced people that they’re doing it tough. They’re not, and the people they’re picking up are typical whingers. They’ve invented this anxiety about the economy. It’s very interesting what’s they’ve done.”
Really? Come down to the kitchen I sometimes go and help out at in the city – no drunks, no old homeless men, no mentally unstable. Families with kids, getting a meal. Come down and talk to them and ask them where they were a decade ago and where they are now. Invented an anxiety in the economy? My my, how deluded.
where’s Kroger on Lateline? Has he given up?
Lateline:
“it’s Goodnight Irene for the Coalition…”
I love it.
HH @ 755 The marginals — North Sydney, Higgins etc.
There’s several ways you could look at it.
1) As some marginals might swing much wider than 53 (eg. Braddon) there will be some swinging much less than 53, possibly under 50.
2) 53/47 is what’s being shown rougly in the Galaxy national poll.
3) If most of the seats fall within the 3% margin (most between 50-56%) then Labor should pick up virtually all of these marginals.
In any case I don’t think a 100+ victory is at hand.
I’m getting Labor and Liberal mail outs every 3 – 4 days in Sturt, and that’s on a 6.8% margin.
I have to go and do some real work now, folks. But I just want to add this piquant and unbelievable touch.
This being a Friday, I’m working from home. While I was on the phone to my mate, one of my wife’s friends rang, from Australia, on the other phone. She’s a lovely woman but could win Olympic Gold for mindless chatter. So I rather brusquely cut her off, and it was only as her end went ‘click, brrr…’ that I realised it should have been my friend who I hung up on and not her.
For she is related to Tony Abbott.
Perhaps next time…
LOL Ashley: I’ll take 53:47 in Berowra, thank you very much!
Seriously, maybe Bennelong and Wentworth are in the poll this time?
Link below to census data.
Has spreadsheets by age, sex and location of people.
You can put in results from Morgan, Newspoll and ACN and create your own swings and TPP, I’ve been allocating 80% greens to labor and 50% others.
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/Home/census
If the polls stay stead at what they have been through the campaign you are looking at a comfortable win around 92 seats, if there is a 1-2% shift to labor you are looking at more comfortable win of 117 seats.
I rarely receive any election material and I’m in Eden-Monaro.
ShowsOn: I’ve got one pamplet so far from Ruddock and zilch from Labor, but Berowra is a safe Liberal seat, nobody is bothering in my neck of the woods.
LTEP: I would have thought you’d be inundated in Eden Monaro.
My Grandma lives in Gilmore, and she’s been getting a lot of junk mail from Joanna Gash.
Nope, one pamphlet here or there. That’s about it. They may be targetting other areas of the seat that are usually more Liberal friendly.
I know I’ve asked this before, but why is Labor apparently playing dead in Paterson? It just doesn’t make sense. Nearly all of the margin in Paterson came from the last campaign and then it was wall to wall posters of Howard himself. “trust me”.
What gives?
Good evening all. Hi ESJ.
Mate, I’m seriously considering to change camps after I saw THIS political advert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjKBf1N2Wls&sdig=1
I MIGHT vote Liberal… GO 4 GROWTH !!!!!!
It was a bit of a worry, listening to my favourite Lib, Boothby, on the phone, tonight.
She is distressed at having read some letter to the Editor, The Age, on line, disparaging Kev as smarmy, dishonest etc, and is hugely concerned about the front benchers. All unionists.
Front benchers? No, said I, they are all lawyers. And dishonest.
NO, I mean Kevnco..
Dishonest?, said I.
Try…………………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
John Hewson is a good commentator for the Libs. Lateline should get him back more often.
Mad Cow: perhaps Labor’s internal polling doesn’t look too good in Paterson?
I keep reading on this blog that Bob Baldwin is spending money like crazy, the Labor bloke probably hasn’t got the resources to compete.
Yeah they’re pumping in to marginals I guess.
Very surprising.
In Sturt, Labor has looked at the Torrens state electorate which swung to Labor by 10% at the state election in 2006. They are targeting that region of Sturt to try to replicate those swings. If it works they will go a long way to knocking off Pyne.
Here’s Antony’s stats from the last state election:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/guide/torr.htm
LTEP
Gary Nairn’s people started door-knocking 2 weeks ago in Queanbeyan. It seems they haven’t really been contemplating loss until recently….
Obviously, the comparison is YRAW, which has been doorknocking since 2005….
All this talk of marginals and porkbarreling raises a topic of last night. When the AEC changes the electoral boundaries, do they just try to keep the 80,000 from the census right or do they also try to make the seats closer? In an ideal world, wouldn’t they try to make all seats closer to avoid porkbarreling?
This is the best parody advert I’ve seen for this campaign.
My favourite part is when they are going through the metals and the guy included “Hafnium”. I have no idea why, but I find that part hilarious.
Apparently Labor has got too many volunteers to work in Bennelong, they aren’t accepting any more. Lots of workers in that seat for the Greens too.
Howard apparently has to pay Chinese students to disseminate his literature.
Voter Boy @ 717
Hey, that’s exactly what I pictured in my mind: a party organisation that’s falling apart at the seems and rushing headlong into oblivion.
It’s a great post, thanks for relying what’s going on.
Lateline, finally.
584
Mr Squiggle Says:
With one and half weeks to go??? Anyone spooked? Scared? Huh, Huh anyone?
No.
Well, not on the Labor side.
Are you guys serious about Rudd campaigning in Downer’s seat tomorrow?
Dolly would hate that
Is the Galaxy marginal seat poll out tomorrow or Sunday?
Also, does anyone know whether the Morgan marginal seat poll is going to have individual results for each seat, or is it just going to be another aggregate (yawn)?
Now I cant leave that porky unchallenged HH,
Labor regularly pays for “volunteers” at booths too etc, it just shows how hollowed out both parties are. Unless of course you have ubermensch like Adam available who are sadly few and far between.
Read Piping Shrike’s analysis of this, first rate.
The Galaxy poll gives the coalition some hope. They are INFRONT on the primaries. We shall see next Sat night but im gonna make a call and you all feel free to remind me next Sat if Im wrong. The coalition will hang on to government by 5 Seats.
AG01
are you feeling triumphal?
Health complaints going away? happiness returning?
HH @774, yes of course Baldwin has rich mates who can pay for the wall to wall ads, *but* head office could pay for a half decent response.
My point is a bit more subtle. Why if Labor is throwing resources at places like Higgins, and given that they in other respects seem to know what they are doing, can’t they run a *few* TV ads to give Jim some recognition, and do some leaflets designed to undermine some of Baldwin’s claims and the negative ideas in the Liberal ads.
I’ve talked to a few people and those teetering are rather like those on that four corners program. They are a bit scared and all they need is a bit of doubt in the other direction.
Is the ALP just too Sydney focused? Does it have internal polling that says that Paterson is won? Is it planning a last minute ad campaign?
As to who was the worse minister in the government.
It would have to be the Prime Minister Howard.
His treatment of Kylie Russell was personal, designed to hurt and sent a message to all, you do not criticise the government.
“You’d have to be thinking on the purest of dehumanised political levels to either forget or deliberately snub the man’s widow.”
The full article from Margo Kinston is well worth the read and was the lowest act by this government just for the fact it was so personal.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/27/1067233083792.html
Galaxy marginal seat poll is coming out on Sunday, Ashley.
And it looks like it’s an aggregate…
Shows on ….Ummmmmmmm what is Hafnium???
Well, Freeman, they must be polling some other Australian people we havent met in the last 9 months of polling – including earlier this week.
hahaha…..hewson…”wenworth voters with their feet in a bucket of champagne saying ‘we can save the tamar’
VBOTW, thanks, I reckon another update next Thursday would be just dandy.
Oh Mad cow I think Tim Gartrell read Possum’s analysis and decided to spend the direct mail money on the ultra safe liberal seats like Higgins, Kooyong and Goldstein.
Maybe Possum is really a very clever concern troll?
ESJ, I don’t know where you get this tripe from. Labor has more volunteers than it knows what to do with. The booth roster in our seat was finished weeks ago and new people are still ringing up to volunteer.
And re: the Galaxy poll.
It’s impossible to properly interpret the results of this poll until we know which seats they were looking at.
Does anyone remember which seats Galaxy looked at when it last did a marginal seat poll aggregate (if they have done one before)?
I don’t think so. As far as I know he will be in Prospect which is in Adelaide.
Bob Baldwin would have an incumbancy advantage.
I don’t know much about Jim Arneman: is he a decent candidate?
ESJ – Part of me is VERY CAUTIOUS TOO.
As A Lib I hope you had a laugh too!
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