Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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Trioli: “Now you’re just playing possum!”
love it!! although she probably didn’t mean ‘our’ possum..
Maybe its a NSW specific phenomenom A, but definitely is the done thing north of Mexico.
Do you mind if I refer to you as A Adam, I feel we have been talking so long its a little more personal.
The Key word there is “polling”. Polls ALWAYS favour Labor. If you dont believe me check the final polls from every polling company before the 2004 election. Every one of them, even Galaxy understated the coalitions vote. I guess Coalition voters dont like talking on the phone as much as the labor voters.
Thank you voterboy @ 717. I really needed to hear even net gossip that Howard is on to lose Bennelong. I was so puzzled by the betting odds for that seat – Maxine is very popular.
I kept being pessimistic about polls etc, and thinking Labor just can’t win, simply because of such “anomalies”. The safest Liberal seats are appearing strong safes – at least according to the betting. For a proper landslide/win – with strong majority, as we saw in 96, the losing Party’s leadership and front-bench has to be decimated too. Otherwise I could not believe in a decisive Labor victory, and kept thinking it was just going to be a close call, a nail-biter down to the wire.
anti-govt feeling is often bloodiest in at least some of their own safest seats. I remember in 96 how many Labor heads fell, with Beazley, Crean and Swan seeming about the only ones left! And Beazley having to wait on postals I think … Could they even form a Shadow Cabinet? Same thing happened to Frazer’s cABINET IN THE 1983 election. Some of the safest front-bencher seats have to falling, for me to be confident.
I just wish Costello could lose his, and Abbott. I’ve worked years in Abbott’s portfolio, dont think much of the political appointment of his Dept Secretary either, getting a promotion for their fabrication of the Children Overboard scandal.
But the one I hate the most? Mal Brough, his policies are a tad right of Attila the Hun, you should have seen some of his policy proposals that got thrown out of Cabinet by Costello, coz they were too right-wing even for him!
And don’t knock Vanstone, as a woman I liked her, despite her politics. She always looked so daggy. Blunt and what-you-see-what-you get in-your-face. Very refreshing for a woman politician not to give a damn about her looks, or to be picked on about her looks… And funny thing, Downer often came over as a nice guy, if you didn’t know his politics.
Also agree with whoever said Labor spent so long in Opposition licking their wounds, decimated by the heavy losses, just not able to get their act together, and thats why they’ve lost so much ground over so many elections. People wanted to get rid of Howard, but Labor just couldn’t give them a credible alternative – much to my sobbing and “eternal loser” mentality!
Rudd surely doesn’t need to campaign in the seat of Adelaide?
I would have thought he’d be going to Boothby or Sturt.
53/47 in marginals …
Lets say this is the first 15 marginals on the pendulum – average margin of 1.8% to LNP. Now the ALP is 3% ahead … overall swing of 4.8% in the marginals. Enough for a modest win – add a few more seats in the 4% to 10% zone and you have a comfortable majority.
Need a bit more background – but this poll is showing nothing new or different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafnium
Lateline.
Galaxy Poll, Sunday. The dreaded narrowing. How sudden is that?
Hewson was good on LateLine. Much better than Kroger. They should have him more often.
I’m guessing Galaxy polled 1000 people in 4 or 5 marginals?
It’s Dr Carr to you. (I always enjoy saying that.)
Freeman @ 803,
you’re wrong on one point (at least). The last ACN before the 2004 election had the Coalition at 54% on TPP – above their final figure of 52.8%.
Galaxy was closest on 52.5% (if my memory is correct).
805 HH- perhaps he just wants to see Kate Ellis again?
Adam or Dr Carr: any new info from your Labor friends?
More bad news for Howard:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Howard-blasted-in-businessmans-ad/2007/11/16/1194766971649.html
Howard blasted in businessman’s ad
“Melbourne businessman Bill McHarg has launched a new election advertising campaign attack on Prime Minister John Howard for failing to act on climate change.
Mr McHarg, the former founding director of the Colliers real estate company, has paid for full-page newspaper advertisements in local and national papers saying: “For 11 years Howard has fiddled. Now Australia burns.”
But he is also campaigning in Mr Howard’s seat of Bennelong in Sydney, handing out leaflets and how-to-vote cards with the message “Planet first – Howard Last”.
The advertising campaign costs in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”
Oh A I love it when you get authoritarian like that!
No way! Not another post-modernist tory hack.
Let me guess, you think that the scientific method is only one way of “knowing” that isn’t better or worse than any other method.
Diogenes, if I lived in Adelaide, I’d be off to see Kate Ellis tomorrow. I’m guessing a lot of young blokes are prominent at her campaign appearances LOL
If the Galaxy poll is a marginals only poll, it’s all over for the libs. 53-47 is a disaster in marginals. What is more, it means that the swing in the less marginal is bigger if the 54-56/46-44 national swing results are right, meaning that the number of seats that may fall to Labor are possibly more than we have predicted. Don’t lose hope! Be the True Believers!! Howard is stumbling, not Rudd – Be STRONG, STRONG I tell you.
Lindsay Voter
What do you call a Liberal candidate in Cranebrook???
Dinner last night with confirmed Liberal voters. We played the “what can John do to win this” game.
No-one had any ideas, really.
HH @799, Bob Baldwin probably does have an incumbancy factor, but no bigger than he had in ‘01 when managed a bit over a percent. The ads say it all ‘Bob Baldwin works hard for Paterson’ meaning, he’s lazy, he’s infatuated with the perks of office and for the most part he sits around shining his ass, and handing out press releases.
Jim is an honest to goodness decent guy who I’ve met on several occasions. His campaign staff, however, give me the feeling they are earnest amatures. Even so, head office should recognise this as a seat to win and find some modest resources.
What you gotta know about is that in ‘04 the election was wall to wall Bob+Howard posters. I’m a great bloke, Howard is my mate, you can trust him on interest rates. My estimate of Paterson being more marginal than it looks is that that 5% swing was based on a campaign about trusting Howard while the ALP did nothing. Even Antony Green has a comment about that 5% being soft.
I assume we are getting another Newspoll on Monday or Tuesday. That will tell us whether there is even a modest last-minute narrowing. It’s always been my expactation that there will be, which is why I am sticking to my prediction of 53% and about 80 seats.
Onya, Dr Carr.
I’m happy to bow down to Dr Carr, one of many experts on this board.
Probably should have had a few less beers tonight, I may regret that comment in the morning. In the meantime …
Aussieguru01 @ 771
That YouTube clip was great. Very funny.
freeman – come back soon
Odd that neither Hewson nor Cameron mentioned the Galaxy marginal poll (perhaps a pre-record).
Cameron was as confident as I’ve ever seen him.
Hewson should be on anything anytime instead of Kroger. He was confident but not stupid about it.
Kroger, would have said Howard won the week, and Rudd’s campaign launch didn’t go down well.
There was a poll of 18 coalition marginals recently that were aggregated on a state basis for qld, nsw, vic and sa. The tpp there was 53.1/46.9
It looked like the Alp would win at least 14 of these seats. They didn’t poll tas, wa or nt.
Thanks for the love Bluebottle.
Not trying to be post-modernist at all (nor to impersonate Glen or LTEP), but it does depend a lot on which marginals, doesn’t it?
Or have I missed something (just got home).
Mad Cow: it probably doesn’t help that Jim Arneman was a loser in the state election, although very narrowly(by 14 votes?). If Labor thought they had a chance of winning, they’d put the resources in, shadow ministers or even Rudd would visit etc. The money has gone instead into Dobell and Robertson.
Shaboh, que?
Adam and Edward,
Get a room.
LTEP @ 831,
I’ve got a feeling that Bluebottle has had some of Dave55’s beers tonight…
HH. I have warned you before that Kate Ellis is an engaged woman. Her fiance comes from a tough Scots Labor background and will not be afraid to biff you if provoked. So I suggest you treat the Hon Member with due respect.
Well so much for KR being an economic conservative according to Deputy Dawg, KR has not lodged with the Departments of Treasury and Finance and Administration for independent costings.
Seems Rudd doesn’t think the following policies don’t need to be fully and independently costed:
• Labor’s Digital Education Revolution
• Labor’s $2.5 billion public hospital policy (including GP super-clinics)
• Labor’s rental subsidy scheme (centred on $6,000 tax breaks for investors)
• Cutting withholding tax
• Labor’s $1 billion tax credit for water infrastructure
• Teen dental vouchers
• $150 million for insulating rental properties
• Reduced HECS for maths and science students.
Looks like an avenue for the Tories to hammer Rudd, but it doesn’t look like the media will have a go at Rudd at this late stage. What’s this Galaxy poll business???
Oh and what are the chances of the Democrats holding a Senate seat after the election, do they have a chance or is it pie in the sky?
As a Tory i’d far rather them have the balance of power compared to the Greens.
837 Adam-What about Mia Handshin?
Hey ESJ,
I and my branch members have letterboxed 1000+ each in this wek. I jave fully staffed my booth with volunteers. 3 have come from pollbludger!!
I also found time to make up my bingo cards which will bring in a lazy $200 for the branch. I have not heard of a single person being paid!
HH @833, for all the same demographic reasons that Dobell and Robertson are worth going for, so too is Paterson. It doesnt make sense.
Glen, the Dems have next to no chance of winning any Senate seats in this election. The best hope is for Andrew Bartlett in Queensland. To do this he’d need to get over 4% of the primary. Which I think is unlikely, but others say is possible.
Sorry Swing Lowe I stand corrected. I do stand by my theory though that Labor voters are more likely to respond to polling than coalition voters. I guess thats due to the demographics, alot of the coalition supporters are seniors and are more likely to hang up on annoying telemarketer type people.
I’m in Melbourne. Not one piece of electioneering material from letterboxing from any candidate. We did receive some material via Australia Post from Lindsay Tanner.
Well yeah. It’s the Tory po-mo implication that all polling is inherently flawed that is completely bizarre.
Fortunately Trioli doesn’t look like she’s just come back from a funeral tonight.
Dyno,
You’re right – this analysis is fairly pointless if we don’t know which seats have been polled. We don’t know if it includes any Labor marginals, how far up the pendulum they go and whether they’ve polled the marginals in Tas or NT (or WA for that matter).
Wait until Sunday, however, and all shall be revealed…
Adam, I’m not likely to be getting anywhere near Kate Ellis, but hey, I can still watch her sitting behind Rudd in parliament.
Another nominee for sexiest politician is Melissa Park, the next member for Fremantle.
Any links to the Galaxy marginals poll? Or was it Lateline mention only?
53-47 in marginals is huge. Suggests to me 54 may be on nationally.
Though Im sticking with 53.5 and 85 seats.
Married.
Freeman @ 844,
Your analysis of seniors may well be true, but you fail to remember that many young voters don’t have landline phones – which means that polling companies never poll them. And we all know which way young voters are voting this time around…
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