Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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Hmmmmm. Child health checks or stinking highway sh!thouses. You have to admit, that Howard guy is a really clever campaigner.
Mr Denmore – i assume that was a joke right…. almost everyone on this site is a broken record… you all pat yourselves on the back about being great psephologists, but there is barely anything by way of discussion that would qualify for that description…. just a great big backslapping exercise.
Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?
So kids are to get two taxpayer funded laptops?
Is the ALP in the pocket of Dell Computers?
What a farce of a policy. What a farce of a Party.
Does anybody east of Kalgoolie give a damn about Brian Burke, Reynolds and McDonald…? I mean puhleeaazzze…
I do like the liberal ad when Kevin Reynolds says..f@#k off!!!…. Sums it up really.
Ciao Bella!!!
C’ome stai?
Hey Bella, I have a desktop and a laptop. I use them in different places for different things. Both are helpful.
Isabella, my dear this aint about Rudd, It is about and will always be about Howard.
As long as he is nice (and not too much of a “prissy Pr!ck’, as Alan Ramsay calls him) solid and boring.. that’s all.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3777/
Morgan did have a 56 per cent poll to Labor during the 2004 election campaign. However, Morgan did fluctuate a fair bit over the whole period, and that was the high point.
Labor is in the box seat, but they can’t count their chickens until the polls close, because Howard cannot be underestimated.
New campaign methed? Speak in riddles.
Will,
re quote:
“…we haven’t seen polling this steady and with deadly intent since the ‘96 election.”
no quibble other than i think it was actually said by Peter Hartcher,to be fair to him.
Hartcher is by far and away the most astute political economist journalist covering the campaign, although Mega George is pretty close too
they leave the pondorous, self-important Paul “Good Morning, Barry” Kelly for dead
And its instructive now to revisit hartcher’s quarterly review, “bi-polar nation” which came out in the first quarter of the year…
his conclusion then was that it was going to be virtually impossible for rudd to defeat howard..
it wasn’t said in any partisan way, just how he saw the political strengths of howard v rudd at that stage, and I don’t think he was out of synch with most observers, even those who may have been “left”
(and btw, wasn’t that a vital question for chris uhlman to be banging on about this morning?)
if labor wins then rudd’s “same, same but different” year-long campaign will be seen to have been both a strategically and tactically brilliant
who could have imagined he’d ultimately wedge howard over economic responsibility?
for those with basic economics and/or who read ross gittins, howard has always been a shameless master of the bribe, and was never an economic manager’s asswipe…just ask peter costello, ken henry and glenn stevens…
so there is a bit of poetic justice to all of this…
lets just hope it all still hangs together as the last week proceeds
and for good measure, here’s Nick, just to remind us of the real definition of hubris and why johnboy is in such deep deep do-dah:
Link to minchin comments on IR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiUtvnwjkTw
10pse 52
Thanks for your constructive criticism. Now all that is needed is your constructive contribution to what the latest series of polls actually mean.
“Why is Rudd promising a laptop in every school if he’s already throwing billions at education rebates for laptops?”
So they can have one at home, brainstrust.
Try to keep up.
Issie, Issie, Issie, he didn’t say a laptop for every kid at school. It was a PC for every kid in year 9 – 12. Also the education rebate is not just for computers, but it can be.
I love how the Tories love to leave out the details that count. Obviously there is a bad poll around, because the trolls are out.
Then don’t read it Mr Denmore. I post in response to other peoples’ posts or questions and will continue to do so unless the owner of the blog asks me to stop. Funnily enough I don’t need the approval of other readers in order to post my opinions. Nor does anyone need my approval to constantly post their predictions that Labor will cruise to victory.
GetReal: I was just going by what was on the 7:30 Report’s page. If I’m wrong, then it is the ABC that is wrong. But still, the quote has some punch.
7
Lionel Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
“On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ’swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%. Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?”
…
I reckon the high 55’s – 55.7% but I’ve no data to support this….:)
It’s tracking exactly as it has been for many weeks. If Kevin Rudd doesn’t win this election it would be extremely surprising. He’s done about as much as one can do.
It would only be inertia and fear that made voters stay with the retiree.
Lose the election please why do you want to Lose the election?
Please explain?
I think LTEP is just taking a little longer to come to the conclusion that it’s over (barring major stuff ups) than the rest of us. Perfectly understandable considering the history of the last three elections. Only last weekend there was a lot more hand wringing here than there is at the moment.
LTEP, at 64, but we all know your opinion. You express the same opinion in every single post. You’re a bit like Denis Shanahan. Whatever happens in the real world, in Denis’ universe John Howard is just a gnat’s nosehair away from a brilliant, come-from-behind victory. In your universe, ALL of the polls have got it completely wrong and Labor is going to get poleaxed at the final hurdle.
If it makes you feel better seeing the world that way (ie: being pathologically pessimistic so you can be pleasantly surprised when events turn out otherwise), go for your life. But it’s very, very boring. And adds nothing to the debate.
Pancho Says:
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Pancho relax, we are not throwing away 11 years of prosperity. After all the Chinese government and the management of BHPB will still be in place, so in the short term our prosperity is assured!
Fair point socks.
John Hunt at 69, I think LTEP is like one of those tiresome party-pooping doomsayers at the pub who grimly warns fellow supporters of his favourite sporting team that the team will choke, all the while secretly hoping that his long odds bet comes in so that he can look like a hero. Call it a pathetic grab for attention.
I don’t express the same opinion in every post. Many of my posts aren’t related to predictions, but more on policy (eg. teachers’ pay, WorkChioces, proportional representation in the Senate).
When someone asks if the Coalition can come back from here I provide my advice… which funnily enough… is usually the same. It’s possible but not probable.
In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible. I’m just putting it out there.
Some people just hate to have someone putting out an opinion that contradicts the group-think.
As the analysts said last night on the 7:30 Report, now is the time that Rudd has to look more confident (but not too confident) and run the message home. That will cement the idea he is the leader of choice. Rudd’s launch made him the ‘leader of the future’ by tying things to computers and high-speed broadband. Rudd just announced a health policy for kids entering school, that’s health and education. What does Howard promise, highway sh*tters! That’s the difference at the moment.
Howard has no rabbits left, Rudd hasn’t even had to use any of his.
Mr Denmore
it was actually ‘lance corporal” not Lieutenant Corporal
anyway “who do you think you are kidding mr hitler” etc
It’s an interesting phenomenon: on one side you have outright denial and on the other abject paranoia. All caused by the same events – the last 3 elections. It affects people in varying degrees.
It’s also very understandable.
Yeah, sorry, but I’m losing my patience with the Gloomtrolls, and absolutely inane LNP commentators here.
Why cant we have some top notch RWDBs here, like Andrew Norton? That guy will give you a run for your money on any topic.
As for Gloomtrolls, can I just note this is a psephology site: if you have no regard *whatsoever* for consistent opinion polling over some 9 months, and prefer to feel things ‘in yer waters’, what exactly is the attraction to this blog?
Ah, nevermind. Id best log out for a few hours. Just got hit with the grumpy stick.
Socrates: Pancho was joking, he/she started the joke by saying “Once people start focusing…”. That’s the problem about forums, unless you read the whole thing you miss the intent.
I think LTEP can be a little bit negative, but doesn’t deserve some of the comments that have been written above. I think its good to have a bit of a balanced view, even though I’m of the personal view that the election is over as a contest.
Just on the matter of laptops…I was talking to a teacher friend of mine last night. She made the point that schools are going to have to put on extra security if there’s a computer for every kid in years 9-12. She says computer theft is already rife at schools, as is “laptop-snatching” from private school kids travelling on public trnasport to school.
On the other hand, if every kid has access to a computer, they may feel less inclined to steal!
And she did agree that computers for all senior kids in government schools was a fantastic idea. At the moment, schools are fored to buy half their computers from what they can raise from parents in fees and fetes.
“Sorry mate not this time”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptzRgfYKoLk
Another good ALP Ad.
I’d say Rudd needs to undo some of the damage caused by the FUD put out by the Liberal party. And once again, what are they gonna do about Paterson? And are there other seats like Paterson that they are (seemingly) giving up on?
Roberte
The highest TPP in history is 56.5
Labor in office?
First heart breaking jobs to ok the pulp mill and the dredging of Port Philip Bay.
Next to wiggle out of the promised tax cuts.
For Laborites, this next nine days will be as good as it gets for ten years.
Enjoy!
(Unless the Greens control the Senate promptly which will make everything easier for you.)
LTEP 75
But your name says “Lose the election please”
What does it mean other than what it says?
Then you go on to say:
“In my opinion, the Coalition still has (regardless of the national polls) a pretty good shot at winning the election on seats. Not probable, but possible.”
Well this is a site discussing polls. So if you don’t believe in polls it is hardly the best place to hang around.
Also if someone has a “good shot” at something it is a lot better than “not probably but possible”. Anything is possible but not all things are probable. Having a good shot is close to 50/50.
Maybe there is some confusion due language and meaning of words. This makes the communication and understanding a lot more difficult.
LTEP, face it. You’re a pooper.
Hi Will,
no problemo – was just correcting the record but your point is well made, as was hartchers:
the polls are definitely displaying deadly intent and are certainly not “jocular” for johnny….wonder when some journo is going to revisit that question: ie, mr howard, do you still think the public are having some joke at your expense…?
frankly, before this 6 week marathon i would have been content with 80 plus seats, but now i’m just getting tired and grumpy – just like john – so I’m thinking more along 90 plus! he really has worn out his welcome in every sense of the term.
Isabella@53
To mangle a metaphor – What you don’t know may not kill you, but probably makes you look silly.
You see the Federal Government (thats Rattus Rattus and crew) has already dumped the money for a school network and computers and internet access. The money is of course conditional, and is confined to its budget. In a sense I’m sure a few people are a bit perplexed, although the RuddStar has promised a computer per child, rather than the current computers for the school.
But you see the money is Federal and they basically control it – so you tell me in whom’s pocket is Rattus Rattus?
Probability and possibility are completely different. It can be a possible for x to happen but altogether improbable. For example it’s possible you’ll flip a coin and get heads 100 times in a row, but highly improbable.
My conclusion is… it’s possible the Coalition could win this election if everything goes their way (eg. the polling narrows 1-2% and the swings happen just right). However this is not probable. Again, it’s also possible the polls are all wrong but not probable.
Many people have asked me over the past week or two whether I still think the Coalition will win. I haven’t answered because I don’t know. But I won’t go as far as some to say it’s in the bag.
Last post on the matter.
The key question with LTEP; is the glass half full or half empty. If he is a half empty sort of guy then he has the same problem such people always have, people just get fed up with it.
Pancho,
Again to be fair, I have no more sympathy for the current NSW State Labor govt on economic management than I have for Howard. Both have been the beneficiary of fortunate circumstances, and neither have planned for the future.
Constant Lurker 86
You seem to be able to predict the future like Nostradamus.
How come you did not see this armageddon coming and warn all righteous people?
LTEP, maybe you need to change name to –
Lose the election? Please! (say it Joan Rivers style)
I wonder if Jaques will allow me to borrow his bat come Nov 24? He just made another century. There is something about his bat I like. *evil grin*
Socrates, I think you are being more than fair to both bunches of clowns. A lot more is at stake in Howard’s slumber than Iemma and Costa’s in my opinion.
estmiated TPP for ALP in 1943 is 60%.
It was Curtins for the UAP
Dinndale Pirahna @ 88
Talking of “poop”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22769105-5001021,00.html
Say, hello gusface at 77.
Thought you were locked up for the duration?
Did Peter Russo get you out?
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