Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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On the “what can Kevin do to lose” angle, assuming there are no untimely deaths of key political or constitutional figures, I can’t think of anything much KR could do to lose. Except have a huge (independently verified) hole in the costings.
Grog @ 857, what you’re saying doesn’t quite ring true to me. There must be some deadline for submitting policies for costing, otherwise people could put them in at 5pm the day before the election. Which wouldn’t make sense, because then the Sir Humphreys wouldn’t have time to get the work done.
Maybe the deadline is written down somewhere other than the charter (eg published by Treasury when each election gets called)? Just guessing, but I reckon there must be some kind of deadline.
The AC Nielsen polls for 1998, 2001, 2004 show in the last 2-3 polls Labor being fairly stable on primary and they consistently over estimated the LNP by a few points at each election.
Hopefully Labor is promoting their broadband policy to pick up some easy votes.
This is just a standard issue thing that happens every election. It is like the debate about the rules of the debate. Labor will hand over all their policies by Tues or Wednesday, and treasury will release the costings about 4 PM on Friday.
The Coalition will do EXACTLY the same thing.
Hi no. 942
“It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”
whats the source for this please? just curious
There is a marginal seat Newspoll on Saturday, and a marginal seat Galaxy on Sunday.
Here was the tip off regarding the Newspoll:
I have better things to do with my energies at present than waste them on wankers like you ESJ. I had three press releases get a run in our local rags this week. We are smiting hip and thigh our local fool of a Liberal and his bogus “hoons” campaign. We are expecting a 10% swing and the Liberals won’t trouble this seat again for a decade.
ShowsOn @ 953,
You’re probably right. I vaguely remember Treasury costings being pretty last minute in the past.
Which probably means they can’t affect things too much in an election as one-sided as this one.
Night Dr.
Woof! Woof!
.
.
The source is the Honourable John Winston Howard. The PM claims Labor has missed a deadline. Labor says Howard is making up the deadline and will have the figures submitted in time.
#956 apropos of what exactly there Adam? I trust it wasn`t in reference to (what I considered a fairly genial) goodnightall from ESJ.
Yeah seriously it is a non-issue. And Labor are being pretty prudent going through Access Economics on everything first anyway.
For example, access costed one of Labor’s budget reply policies and it turned out they had underestimated some savings to the tune of 400 $million.
Anybody seen the possible PM in waiting Costello lately?
Maybe he is on holidays or something.
Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.
Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.
Karl,
Those primaries must be wrong, thats only 2% from the 2pp!!
Mad Cow
We had a generic Labor ad in Prime News, from the Taree transmitter, which then ended with an image of James Langley (ALP Lyne). Of course there were once again ~10 Baldwin Ads to counter this modest effort. If we have TV ads for Labor in Lyne but none in Paterson – what on earth is happening/ Has the Paterson campaign been given any personnel from Sussex ST/ Who is running the campaign?
[Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.
Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.]
Excellent, thanks for the info.
I HOPE they polled Sturt this time. They didn’t do it last time though.
ShowsOn… I take it you’ve assisted Ms Hanshin in Sturt?
thanks Paul K. realise i must have missed an earlier comment and saw story…so its really a non story.
i am just hanging around to confirm whether Karl is correct saying that labor has “increased” its primary vote in marginals trom 47 to 52, with 2pp 54-46…
and as for the galaxy stuff….these polls are marketing exercises for the pollsters, surely…so they are cutting the same data with slightly different interpretations to create effect, no?
Midnorthcoast, one hopes that people are getting annoyed at Baldwin ads by now.
I guess it does say one thing. The Liberals at least think Paterson is on the edge.
Yes. Well, not directly. I’ve done letter-boxing at the North East end of the electorate. It is an area that takes in the state seat of Torrens that swung 10% to Labor at the 2006 state election.
I’ll be doing more letterboxing next week, and handing out how to votes on election day.
Pretty sure that one of the commentators earlier in the week said that this upcoming Galaxy poll would be of 22 Liberal marginal seats.
I sure hope so Mad Cow – I hope it’s party money rather than Big Bob’s
Mad Cow,
While we wait for Galaxy where are you based? I am in Maitland just in Hunter, so I cant vote for Jim. One Baldwin truck on New England Highway in East Maitland, nothing from Arneman anywhere!! I agree with you, I dont know where the ALP stuff is. There are plenty of votes to be won in East Maitland, Metford, Tenambit, Lorn and Largs which have been brought back into Paterson.
Good luck ShowsOn. At least you’ll know you’ve done your part.
Anyhow, all these polls are rather unintuitive. Only 1 week to go til we know for sure.
Disgusting line tonight from Vaile, re auditor-general: …”that unelected individual …” That’s red-neck copper speak. Pig.
Maybe endorsements in MSM will go something like this:
THE Howard Government does not deserve to be re-elected. During the campaign and its 11 years in office it has shown itself to be self-serving in the extreme.
It has betrayed the trust of the Australian people. It has betrayed the notion of a fair go – for workers, for refugees, for caring. The Howard Government has changed Australia from a fair society into one that resembles the jungle – red in tooth and claw.
It is now time to redress the balance. Every voter has a choice and this newspaper (insert name) believes the present Prime Minister has served us well. Thank you, Mr Howard. The time has come to move aside, to swallow your pride.
oh.,bugger it, but you get the drift.
I reckon they will try to sit on the fence, but won’t totally endorse Howard.
Journos now find reporting on the campaign boring and have moved onto speculating on the transition
Softly, softly Labor plans for a win
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/strongmichelle-grattanstrong/2007/11/16/1194766965910.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I hear the Newspoll marginals are showing an extremely low “other party” vote of around 5% which gives credence to ALP primary 52 and TPP 54.
Well yeah, I’m at the point where I’m just fascinated about what the final result will be.
I do think Rudd will win, but it could be anything from 80 -95 seats.
Anything above 76 is a bonus in my book.
BenC, Medowie. Where the real estate agents sell 2 bedroom houses on residential lots for 240K as “ideal first home”.
ShowsOn, I’ll be happy with 74, since I believe they’ll be able to make a minority government with that number. 14 seats isn’t really too bad really.
LOL, good to see you calling it Antony
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/its-bennelong-time-since-a-pm-was-rolled/2007/11/16/1194766965904.html
Who knows what will happen if they end up with 74
We could end up back at the polls in January.
964
BenC Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 12:16 am
Karl,
Those primaries must be wrong, thats only 2% from the 2pp!!
Hi Ben,
I don’t believe it either, that’s why I waited for the Adelaide broadcast before posting the comment. Madden was quite clear, but he may have mis-spoke. He said:
“Labor has increased its lead by 5% from 47 to 52%”
Then he said that would give Labor a 54-46% 2pp overall.
I’ve got these comments on both my file cards; one card each for the Melbourne and Adelaide broadcasts.
Sorry about the delay posting. I promised I would do the dishes before going to bed… don’t ask.
@ 979 mad cow Says:
Aren’t there al lot of god-botherers congregated (so to speak) around that area?
Albert, you wouldn’t think so if you saw the state of the churches here
What Rod Cameron really thinks:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-week-where-anything-can-happen/2007/11/16/1194766959450.html
No worries Karl,
Just checking to see. I love those primary and 2pp numbers in the marginals. Just waiting for the official numbers and seats.
Should be up on The Oz homepage in 20 minutes.
Lovely: http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/16/rg_spooner_wideweb__470×408,0.jpg
74-74-2 would make life absolutely fascinating for dispassionate observers. Every House vote could be the Government’s last.
Not much fun for the partisans, though.
And definitely not going to happen this time!
These are the newspoll marginals I think. It is buried in the GG web site:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
[These are the newspoll marginals I think. It is buried in the GG web site:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
Yes that’s it, great find.
Thanks Midnorthcoast,
No seat details though. Assuming you read the most 18 marginal up the pendulum.
It’s gone now…
Just before I go. Also posted on next thread.
What the Papers Say. Delroy, ABC.
Extended chat with Laura Tingle, the Fin.
Game, set, match. Wrap comment. Laura. ‘At this stage, Kevin Rudd will be PM in a week’.
The GG.
Labor extends lead.
Kevin Andrews orders urgent review of all 450 in immigration detention.
13 released thus far.
PS I might hang out for whatever is being promised, poll wise.
No, just an extra ‘]’ on the end of the link
I think this is very bad for the coalition because of this:
“The swings in the marginal seats in the four states — between 6.7 per cent in NSW and 8.6 per cent in Queensland.
“NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia”
So the LOWEST swing is 6.7%. Remeber, Rudd only needs an average of 4.3% to win the election, and the LOWEST he is getting is 6.7 in the state with the highest population!
Dario I still get it:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-5013947,00.html
Nice work Midnorthcoast!
Liked this bit: “the Coalition would lose between 18 and 28 seats” if swings held etc.
Newspoll 18 Liberal marginals
47/42 Primaries
54/46 2PP
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