Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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OK…. but on the last thread at 12:58pm you said this:
Sounds like it’s possible that neither side will win.
Please welcome the next Prime Minister of Australia, Bob Brown.
People ,enough with the ad-hominem attacks.
LTEP, please try to be more positive. Negativity never helps people understand. There are always positive aspects, even at the worst of times (which I doubt this election will be for the ALP). Consider 2004, for example. The ALP gained Adelaide and Parramatta. They lost the election, but Howard set the seeds for his own destruction when he gained his majority in the Senate.
To paraphrase Command and Conquer – “Howard has written his own obituary”. And it’s name is WorkChoices.
New Labor ad… sorry if this has been posted before
http://www.youtube.com/australianlabor
Will and Pancho
Sorry, I completely misunderstood. Too obsessed with the demise of the rodent.
LTEP, I am an independent and do not belong to nor support any political party, but when anyone asks me who is going to win the election, I have to say Labor on the evidence.
It would be very hard for Labor to lose it.
There are a good five seats in NSW, most likely two in Tasmania, at least three in South Australia, maybe one or two in WA, four or five in Vic and surely at least six in Queensland.
My bet still is Labor 85, Coalition 62 and 3 independents (one surprise one).
Why do you think the betting odds are so much in Labor’s favour?
Heres an interesting exercise.
I plugged in the state sings from today’s Morgan breakdown into the calculator (where no swing was given I used the national swing). I then subtracted possum’s 4% MOE to give the coalition the best possible result within MOE. The result was a Coalition majority (75 seats) in a hung parliament (Labor had 73 seats).
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=0.9&vic=6&qld=6.1&wa=1.4&sa=3.4&tas=2.8&act=2.8&nt=2.8&retiringfactor=1
Of course the chances of this happening are practically non existent.
Yes Ashley, I revoke that statement. I think it’s pretty clear, objectively, that a Labor loss is possible but not probable. Many here though refuse to admit it’s even possible Labor could lose.
Still… better than not admitting the Coalition could possibly lose (steven_kaye et al.)
More good news from Morgan. As some journo said earlier this week, if the polls turn out to be wrong and Howard wins, then all polling companies may as well shut their doors as there won’t be any customers looking for their ’skills’.
This one just reinforces that the “real” support out there is split 55/45 in favor of the ALP.
Must be hard for the Rattus Crew when they haven’t even had any outlying polls really going their way.
I would agree with a previous poster that if thats the case, I’d expect that the result would be on the higher side of the MOE for the ALP. (Yayyyyyy! )
Any of the stats heads out there know if there is any way to test that proposition from the available data??
Dont know if the glass half full/empty is the right analogy for LTEP. I think whats happening is he’s calling a glass that is 95% full (the statistical probability of an ALP win) half empty. When that happens you’re getting into issues of personality. But thats fine, i’ve got friends who are the same way.
Sorry, should be swing and Newspoll
G’day y’all I was interstate and am back now. Any of my fellow Libs out there?
According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of foreign land
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
His barren Princess assigned will lance Joward’s heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
At the risk of becoming like the MSM I will recycle something I posted at teh end of teh previous thread:
While I respect and understand people’s caution, I think Labor can be legitimately confident by now. Australians don’t like hubris and Rudd and all other candidates should be humble and careful, but really lets look at the week ahead:
- Monday should see a newspoll published with the reaction to Rudd’s launch
- Haneef’s appeal will be in court, with an attorney general in caretaker mode unable to gag any embarrassing revelations
- Abbott’s remarks will haunt him all week, because they are on film, and relate to a key element of the Coalition’s strategy
- banks will gradually pass on the interest rate rise, just to remind people
- Howard has no more money to spend without looking inflationary
- by Friday it will be too late
Here are my views of Howard’s best options to turn around the last week:
- publish evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard
- invent evidence of a sensational scandal involving Rudd, Swan or Gillard (that can’t be disproven till after Saturday)
- black out reporting of the count and have young liberals stuff the ballot boxes
- military coup
John of Melbourne… sounds like you were further than interstate! You been in Texas y’all?
Alex McDonnel, that would only be the case if each state was at the bottom end of the MoE. Not a high probability (see my coin toss analogy).
Very good Sudoka Killer! You could write an entire book.
LTEP 107
Of course a Labor loss is possible.
It’s also possible that Ivan Milat will be elected as the next Pope. You never know.
Only a handful of commentators have called the election result to date, most are still hedging their bets, so the attacks on LTEP on here are a bit much IMO.
It’s not over yet. Eight more days and you can all rant about how right you were about the ALP p*ssing it in.
Until then LTEP and others have every right to question the dominant thinking in here that it’s in the bag.
LTeP no I was in WA. Very hot in WA.
Pancho, re#12. So we make you sick —— Good!
I’ll tell you what makes us sick. Abbott saying that if your employer takes away all your conditions, go out and get another job.
What if all employers start taking away your conditions? What kind of an idiot employer is not going to take away your conditions when there is more money in it for him.
Abbott has had a blinder this campaign LOL. The worst performing minister in a political campaign that I have ever seen.
Abbott you are out of touch!
In the interests of balance, if the MOE is off in the other direction the outcome would be:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=10&qld=10&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
Socrates – to quote a saying from some US pollie apparently, ‘Rudd would have to be caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl’ to lose this election.
LTEP 107
Lose the argument but please win the election, right?
The reality is that these are the best polling figures for Labor in a long long time. And they might not be repeated for quite a while. I wonder how you manage to get through a campaign if and when it is a close election…the mind boggles…
The betting markets are shortening rapidly on Labor… pretty much everyone is now between 1.28 and 1.30.
The trifecta of the ACN, the rorts, and the Abbott have really taken the wind out of the sails.
Grants corruption and Abbott’s mess will ensure Howard regains no futher ground. AND I believe Rudd will pick up a little more ground over the next few days.
The trend is with Labor, the undecideds will pick it up and, fed-up soft Liberal voters will jump to Labor or to ‘Others’. Labor’s TPP will be less 54.5 to 55.5 unless the Liberal party actually do something illegal.
There will be less sense of a fear of change this time around. People do feel comfortable with Rudd and quite a bit dissapointed with Howard, especially the way he and his team have self-destructed.
I’ve gotta say, thanks to the person who posted the link to the “It’s Time” video on Youtube. I’m having great fun messing with a hack on there.
http://mail.lycos.com/lycos/Index.lycos?right=%2Flycos%2Fmail%2FMailList.lycos%3FFOLDER%3DInbox
Misty 118
The problem with LTEP is not his incessant pessimism, it’s his reflexive dismissal of the objective evidence in favour of his gut feelings.
John, I was in WA too, 39 degree heat on Monday. Incidentally, whilst in Forrest visiting my parents I saw lots of Kevin07 posters (only a few Nola Marino ones).
115 LEP
See my post at 106 for that result
Reminder Adelaide listeners.
Nicole on 5AA at 3.30. Amanda Blair.
Watch your back, Nic. In fact don’t even turn it..they put up a mock interview just after 1pm, making you out to be dumb as and making reference to your boobs!
Charmers!
Amanda is a fat evil jealous cow.
LTEP, whenever I feel uneasy I look at this graph:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-1996v2007-newspoll-primary.png
and then it’s all better again.
Alex,
At this stage that is my view too. Howard has no ideas left, nor surplus to spend.
It occurred to me that, in a perverse way, it could be fun to watch Fox News on election night, or any TV coverage with Shanahan, Albrechtson or others on air live. Assuming results run to script, there could be a few grimmaces of pain visible.
Spiros I don’t remember rejecting any objective evidence. I’ve said time and again all the evidence points to a Labor win. A loss is possible but not probable. I don’t know how much clearer I can get.
the MOE for Morgan was 3.3% so try the meter again
GetReal at 61
Pity nobody ever cleaned up the Minchin audio on WorkChoices Mk II.
Can’t be done with standard audio software. But it can be done with software designed for forensic purposes.
I would say that the Coalition has at most a 5% chance of winning from here.
Lose The Election Please, do you intend to come clean at some point and admit that you are a rusted on Coconut supporter, or not?
Mate, I picked it from the first comment that I read from you.
I’m off to WA (Freo) tonight for 4 days R&R. Forecast – mid teens to mid 20s. A bit cooler than last weekend! $49 each way with Crapstar.
Come on Centre, turn the sarcasm detector on. I promise to never again make a dry remark and/or parody GP without putting a smiley face at the end.
Lefty E
What does RWDB mean? Right Wing Dead beats? Andrew Norton is the biggest neoliberal!! Its almost boring
126 – sorry, that should be http://youtube.com/watch?v=vqMCZBjvmD4
is the nicole cornes interview streamed on the intermanets?
LTEP #128,
Labor doesn’t seriously hope to win Forrest. What they’re doing is a) hoping to damage Marino enough that an Indie can upset her, and/or b)get said Indie into Parliament owing Labor a moral debt.
Yes Centre, I love the Libs. Long live Howard. My work here is done now that I have infiltrated the ALP’s top-most minds.
Anyone who wants a graphic demonstration of the rotten nature of the Coalition and its total debasement of any notion of good government should take a look at a snapshot on Peter Martin’s blog from the auditor general’s just released report.
The snapshot shows a desperate last minute allocation of regional development grants in marginal electorates just before the issuing of writs for the 2004 election. Nearly $3.5 million in our money was ladled out in the space of a half hour.
I ask you: Is the mark of sound economic management? How much further proof do the doubters now need that this government must be put out of its misery??
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/productivity-coalition-style.html
That new ad with the worker is gold! Neutralises that strike/destroy economy one the libs have been running. Alot better than the woman one, which is great on its own.
Spiros – unfortunately on occasion intuition can be a better predictor of the future than the scientific.
I can understand the intuitive response that says Howard is far from gone. Chris Ulhman expressed something similar the other morning didn’t he, with his “the vampire could still get out of the coffin” remark.
I won’t be writing the rodent off until the night of the 24th. I can easily imagine a scenario where this week’s 54/46 becomes 53/47 next week, which becomes 52/48 on election day – which may still make it a tight contest if Howard’s pork has been successful in the marginals.
It’s unlikely, but as LTEP states, it is possible.
Pancho,
Next time remember to use the laugh track like they do on American Comedy shows as some people need to be told when something is a joke.
Well I must sign off for the weekend and finish my work. Thanks again to William for an excellent site.
And thanks to Tony Abbott, for making my day in a most unintended way
Socrates – I will be watching ABC but will also have my lap top logged onto PB. But will surf across other TV stations to see what kind of ridiculous comments are being made by the neo cons.
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