Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 56.5-43.5
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1,088 Comments
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Just so long as Malcolm Mackerras does not predict a Labor win and the other polls stay the way they are then all will be well for Rudd.
134 Bring Back
Was that comment for me? Newspoll claims it as 4% for the state by state breakdowns, which is what I was working off.
“Sampling error ranges from plus or minus 2 percentage points on the total sample to plus or minus 4 percentage points for the state with the smallest sample size.”
on the most optimistic figures the best vote for the coalition from Morgan gives one 47.3 % which gives them only 67 seats and the ALP 81 seats.
LTEP does forrest take in Bunbury?
I saw lots of lib candidate photos about but none taken with JWH.
NB, you said Morgan.
forget it if you were taking Newspoll
Coonan vs Conway on Skynews right now
Pancho it was so well said. The conservatives here would have been so proud.
Yes John of Melbourne… my parents live in the lowly suburb of Usher (right next to Withers, which Marino refuses to doorknock in).
155 Sorry, corrected myself a few lines down. Only an exercise after all, akin to ‘what would I do if I won Lotto’?
Today’s attack on the Auditor General by Government Ministers over their blatant rorting of tax payer funds really sums up the last 11 years for me. We’ve seen the spirit of democracy slowly, surely strangled as the Rodent’s bully boys viciously attack all and any critics. Its time to finally bury this Government’s rancid, diseased carcass and to let new, democratic life flourish once again.
Centre I was just trying to reverse wedge em. Everyone’s doing it these days.
Communications debate live now on zdnet.com.au
160 GMT
Rudd and co should be on the news tonight pointing out Rattus’ habit of always shooting the messenger.
I think it was originally Right Wing Death Beast, actually, bird.
Norton is a neo-liberal, yes. He’s also intelligent, and argues well. Wish there was more of that from our resident RWDBs here, thats all!
Well, I’m off now for 4 days. William, will throw a few bucks into PayPal to help keep your excellent site operating. avagoodweegend folks.
Lay off LTEP, he might be mundane and depressingly ‘on message’, but this is a political sight. I have shared the pessimism he covets over the ALP’s chances for years, and have only recently (tentatively) kicked the habit. Addiction is a powerful drug, which often can only be overcome with a LABOR VICTORY!!!!
142 Henry. It will stream. I tried to get onto their online, but couldn’t.
LTEP why so?
Putting MOEs to one side for a sec, what of that other variable – the undecided (the undead as I like to call them. How the hell could your mind not be made up yet?)? An Age online poll (dicey, I know) has 98% of 3430 voters saying their minds are made up. Do the psephos out there have an opinion on the undecided? Is the Age basically correct and there aren’t a mass of people out there who are going to make up their mind as they wander into the booth? Thoughts?
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/voted.html
A little off topic here. Remember when you would ask you dad, “Who would win in a fight between…blah, blah?” (stegosaurus vs allosaurus, wonderwoman vs spiderman etc) those ones. Who would win in a boxing match between John “Ravenous Rodent” Howard and Kevin “Milky Bar” Rudd? 15 rounds, WBA sanctioned…
Lots more fun than a bloody 2-month campaign, and JH may have a better shot at defending his title.
LTEP #128,
Labor is spending resources in Forrest to do 2 things:
1. Force the Libs to do likewise – with a new candidate and a large swing, Forrest could be in danger, ergo the Libs must spend their campaign resources in normally-safe seats like Forrest.
2. Hopefully gain an upset IND victory (I believe there’s a strong IND candidate running), who will be i)easier to deal with than an LP MHR, and ii) owe the ALP something of a moral debt for easing his way in.
Lefty E
In regards to Andrew Norton – do not you find to argue within such a narrow ideological paradigm as RW fundamentalism, just so austere…….
So what are you doing for election night btw?
Thanks Crikey, am watching the Coonan – Conroy debate instead!
After a sedate start the gloves are off already!
Boll: You don’t read BLeak’s cartoons at The Australian?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,25198,5024288-20581,00.html
Now Conroy is outright laughing at her!
170
No contest. John’s footwork might have been fancy four years ago, but he seems to be stumbling all over the place now. Also, Rudd has a longer reach.
Must say I prefer the wrestling analogy though.
“Rudd has The Rat on the mat. What’s this? Rudd has pulled out his signature move the THE LANDSLIDE. This won’t be pretty folks, send the kids from the room now…”
I’m a bit of a sceptic like LTEP, but have become increasingly confident this week.
Nothing is going right for the coalition. They have no issue which is getting real traction. They are all looking rather glum. They are going from scandal to gaffe to scandal.
The ALP’s campaign came together this week. They are disciplined and look confident. They are campaigning in safeish coalition seats. They have momentum and the polls have been rock solid.
Yeah miracles happen. But I just can’t see the current rabble pulling off the biggest upset victory in Australian political history.
#174 thanks Andos. some of the funniest stuff I’ve seen in ages.
121
NB Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
(Sorry, didn’t know how to go over 10% in Vic and Qld)
just edit the figures in the link to what you need:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=10&nsw=6.9&vic=12&qld=12&wa=7.4&sa=9.4&tas=8.8&act=8.8&nt=8.8&retiringfactor=1
“The minister tries to re-write the laws of physics” – Stephen Conroy.
This is classic stuff!!
Siev XI – Lebovic reckons about 20% say in exit polls they made up their mind either on the day or in the week before.
I think it’s less than that though, and even if they do, it seems they break with the prevailing trend.
I suspect (though of course cannot prove) that people tell pollsters they only made up their minds late to appear more open minded.
Could be wrong though. God knows it’s happened plenty of times before.
Henry, where is the debate? I can’t seem to find it at Sky….,
Now she is suggesting nobbling the ACCC….
So much for the mighty experienced Howard team!
Oil Nelson was sacked from saying anything before the campaign. Andrews and Ruddock have gone missing. Downer is next to useless. Turnbull has been a big floparoo. They are too scared to show Cossie cause he might smirk. And Abbott?
What can we say about Abbott? Do you know the big beer ad!
Abbott is out of touch
He is sooo out of touch
He is so out of freaking touch that it’s huuuuuuuuuge!
182.
Its at…
http://zdnet.com.au
My main concern is in the ad break. The coalition have, on cue, resorted to scaring the bejesus out of the population through blatant untruths. I think the man & woman ‘really Mr Howard’ ads need to be run more, as well as the interest rates. Nothing like a good dose of truth to quell the lies.
here we go again, Hanson ghost haunts Howard…
http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2007/11/15/1194766869667.html
or news.com.au Matthew Cole
Me, Ill be handing out HTVs for the Greens in Kath & Kim Country all day, then hosting a wee election party/ BBQ thingy.
TV on ABC, laptop on wireless, beer on ice.
#185,
I can’t see a video – I’m hearing the story, and Coonan sounds peeved and petty, as opposed to Conroy’s smoothness.
anyone seen this crikey tip?
‘Talk down at the Swamp (The West’s HQ) is that the Editor is once again sitting on some polling data. The Federal Westpoll has yet to be published despite having been with him for over a week now. Readers might recall that the editor has previously forgotten to publish Westpoll results that showed the ALP doing well. Journo’s believe the failure to publish the Westpoll means the Editor doesn’t like the results – could be bad news for the Liberals in WA.’
tsk tsk
Coonan’s lost the plot.
You very bad man Mr Conroy!!
He can’t contain himself!!
Burgey and Siev XI: Antony says the undecideds break out at 2/1 in favour of the flow. My guess this will be more pronounced with large swings (5% or more).
Antony, if you’re around, can you explain the reasoning behind the 2/1 breakdown. Obviously the mood of the time is a factor, but is this some inherent rusting on with these so it gives a base 33% each and the other 33% just goes with the mood or what?
There’s some analysis here regarding four to five weeks of campaign polling in the previous four elections. It’s remarkably accurate and holds no comfort for Coalition supporters hoping for a dramatic turnaround in 2007.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=1850
Where, oh where, is L2?
He was back to his smarty-pants best with that mob of sycos on Monday, but what’s he been doing since?
Has he been campaigning in Higgins? Oh dear…
If he doesn’t raise his head in the next few days, and Monday’s (Sunday’s?) Newspoll is grim, then my guess is he will be angling to keep a low profile till Saturday week. To continue to campaign alongside Howard is to firmly identify yourself as being equally responsible (culpable) for the oncoming rout. Not a good look for someone who still has a future(?) in politics.
The charade of the Libs having two leaders will have Costello chalking up one election loss already! LOL.
I think hiding is his best option. But he still has to win Higgins.
Yeah, I agree about the scepticism, the longer this goes on the more worrried and sceptical you get.
Back in February March I was thinking 83 seats, then September October 92 seats, now I’m thinking 117 seats.
Henry #193,
But the temptation to take the dig at the Audit report was too much.
Debate on Skynews
Shut Coonans up. She is so rude interrupting & talking over everybody. This is not a debate. I work in telecommunications & she is telling fibs.
Nicole Cornes is giving a series of anti-politics answers to questions on 5AA.
She isn’t giving the Labor sound bites, but she is giving her own unorthodox answers to some pretty straight forward questions.
I have no idea if this will help her win, but she sounds like the candidate that people SAY they want, someone who isn’t a cookie cutter pollie, but someone who speaks like a normal person.
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