Comments on: Morgan: 56.5-43.5

By: David Hence

David Hence — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 04:33:08 +0000

All seat of Melbourne Candidates including Tanner are all a joke. Quality leaves something to be desired. Jackasses the lot of them. All of them donkeys running in the Melbourne Cup.

By: Chris Curtis

Chris Curtis — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 06:23:36 +0000

I have used Adam Carr’s comprehensive website to look at the difference between Senate and House votes in each state in the 2004 election. There is some rounding out imprecision, but basically, in NSW, the ALP lost .3 per cent and the LNP 1.5 to the rest; in Victoria, 2.5 and 1.0; in Queensland, 3.2 and 2.2; in SA, 1.2 and 0.6. In WA, the ALP lost 2.4 and the LNP gained 1.5; in Tasmania, the ALP lost 11.0 and the Liberals gained 4.1. Different parties, different ballot orders, different patterns of contesting both Houses, etc, make a difference, but the overall picture is that the majors lost between 1.8 and 5.4 per cent to the rest in the states in which they both lost. In the sates in which the ALP lost and the LNP gained, the overall loss to the rest was between 1.8 and 7.0 per cent. It is no surprise that Tasmania, with more than a century’s experience of STV, is different from the other states.

I next looked at Newspoll’s state breakdown from yesterday and made some adjustments to the expected 2007 Senate vote based on the difference from 2004 and intutition. I applied a strong swing to Tasmania, in line with national figures, as Newspoll does not give Tasmanian figures.

Then I went to the Senate calculator to see the results I would get:
NSW – ALP 3, LNP 3.
Vic – ALP 3, LNP 3 (with the Greens just missing out)
Qld – ALP 3, LNP 3
WA – ALP 3, LNP 3 (with no minor party preferences even needing to be counted)
SA – ALP 3, LNP 2, Mr X 1
Tas – ALP 3, LNP 2, Greens 1.
This totals to ALP 18, LNP 16, Greens 1, Mr Xenophon 1, giving a Senate make-up, assuming no change in the territories, of ALP 34, LNP 37, Greens 3, FF 1, Mr Xenophon 1, meaning that the ALP would need the support of the Greens plus both of FF and Mr X to have legislation carried.

If Newspoll is substantially understating the Greens vote, the results would be different.

By: GS

GS — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 05:30:21 +0000

Shanahack may sound like he’s got the message but he doesn’t really believe what he’s seeing. He’s been looking back at the last campaign/s and not getting the shift that Rudd represents or has tapped into. I think Piping Shrike really nails it on that blog when he refers to the anti-politics mood of much of the electorate that the ‘ending of the blame game’ and ‘working families’ rhetoric points to. Don’t care if he’s trying to write a few articles that will enable him to do an ‘I told ya so’ – he lost credibility around June…

By: Paul

Paul — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 04:48:15 +0000

Folks,

Is the Embassy Rooftop strategy in play?

http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/the_embassy_rooftop_strategy.htm

Regards,

Paul

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 03:34:48 +0000

BLUEBOTTLE, who last night indulged in foul-mouthed abuse against the wholly blameless LTEP, has been banned.

By: Sir Henry

Sir Henry — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 02:46:48 +0000

“Last Card Rodente standing sorta tall in Vegas before combusting spectacularly then falling on his own footprints.”

This is some acrobatic feat in time-space continuum, EC. Not to mention the mixed metaphors.

For a start, Spanish for rat is “La Rata”. Then (a) if he were to undergo spontaneous combustion then there would be no body to fall; (b) footprints are left once the footprint maker (in this case, Ratty) has vacated the spot, but assuming not all of him had gone up in flames then his feet would still be in his footprints, hence it makes the exercise entire counter to logic and elementary physics, EC.

The imagery of a Rat, dressed in Mexican cardsharp gear, black sombrero, embroidered shirt, silver buckle, playing seven card Texas hold ‘em poker or Manila, staking it all on the last unseen card on the table, is somehow not credible. His is a game that depends on an ace in the hole, which is of advantage only in stud poker. Sadly, the aces that Johnny has drawn have turned up jokers. Cunning Rattus cloacadius has outsmarted himself this time with the long election. He’ll now drown in the ordure of his own making.

For outstanding imagery of the election, Viewers At Home, please turn to the Herald News Review op ed page for a Leunig cartoon, accompanied by a cute little poem. Honourable second is a photo by Peter Morris, who snapped George Newhouse looking at his watch as he canvasses votes with a wheelchair bound patient (who looks to be in a coma or asleep). Brilliant. This one is in the News section pn page 7 of the SMH.

By: Enemy Combatant

Enemy Combatant — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 23:49:47 +0000

Like the imagery, mad cow.
Last Card Rodente standing sorta tall in Vegas before combusting spectacularly then falling on his own footprints.

Postmodern Neoconservative 9/11 irony. Tres apt.

By: Lefty E

Lefty E — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 23:01:30 +0000

Yes, puzzling that the complete non-story on ALP policy costings was front page.

Try to understand this, jounros: Howard hasnt submitted his either. The story is BS.

By: scout

scout — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 22:53:37 +0000

Just heard Tim Fischer on Radio National discussing the marginalls and then what will happen WHEN Labor gets in – very interesting

By: Gippslander

Gippslander — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 22:10:03 +0000

924
Swing Lowe Says:
November 16th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
LTEP @ 916,

“Fair enough, but the Coalition have drifted out to $3.70 on Betfair now. Betfair is probably not the market one should quote when trying to prove sentiment in the betting market, as it is so volatile…”

Maybe Betfair IS the market to quote, precisely because of the volatility. My understanding is that it s more like a Stock Market, matching individual punters, than the traditional casino style bookie/mug relationship. if this is so, it.s more likely to measure “current” sentiment than the bookies. Just stand back a bit, and don’t let the minute by minute changes blind you to the big trends.

I like volatility in the coalition price between $3.50-$3.80, and trending up.