I am informed via comments that Sky News has reported on a Westpoll survey to be published in tomorrow’s West Australian, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 two-party lead in WA. This compares with 53-47 to Labor’s favour in Westpoll’s last statewide survey on October 6, displaying a volatility which has been fairly typical of the series. The Liberals’ primary vote lead is 47 per cent to 38 per cent. The sample is usually around 400. The Coalition’s two-party vote in WA at the 2004 election was 55.4 per cent, so the latest figure still points to a swing which if uniform would win Labor Stirling and Hasluck. Between the two statewide polls, Westpoll produced a survey from Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan on October 20, each with a sample of 400, which had the Liberals ahead in all three. In other poll news, Lateline tells us that a Galaxy marginal seats poll to be published on Sunday will show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, although it’s hard to say what this means exactly until we know which seats were covered.
797 Comments
Westpoll is as useful as the proverbial … on a bull.
I think it’ll probably be a close thing in WA, probably the Coalition slightly above 50% (but not quite 51). I think it’ll be interesting to see how the seats fall and find it interesting to hear talk of Brand being in trouble for Labor. My tips is a no change. Libs to pick up Cowan, Lab to pick up Hasluck.
WA poll swing
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=201136
The Coalition has had a much needed boost in the latest Westpoll results, which show a major rise in the government’s support in Western Australia.
The poll, to be published in The West Australian newspaper shows the government gaining 10 points on Labor on a two party preferred basis.
Westpoll shows the coalition ahead of the ALP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two party preferred basis, which is a huge swing from last month when Labor led the coalition 53-47.
The poll also shows a rise in the Prime Minister’s personal popularity, with Mr Howard winning the preferred Prime Minister vote for the first time since July.
Mr Howard scored 49 per cent to Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s 41 per cent.
The Liberals have also gained ground in the primary votes, attracting 47 per cent of the vote, which is up from 43 per cent in October.
Labor dropped 8 points to 38 per cent of the primary vote.
The results are not all good for the coalition though, with the poll showing that they stand to lose the seats of Stirling and Hasluck to Labor in the election.
Westpoll is about half as useful as Newspoll.
Westpoll, never heard of it? Oh right it’s a WA thing.
400 people? 1 point and Sky News reports that as a much need boost???
Pft!
No wonder Strong Arm held onto that poll releasing it in time for the final week.
I’ll bet it’s a deliberate ploy to elict some sympathy for Howard ?
That said Hasluck and Stirling are ALP Gains – Midland had a Full page ALP ad on Interest rates.
Talk about being thankful for small mercies.
Most likely scenario, ALP win 1 seat.
Second most likely, ALP win 2.
Why people are talking about Brand I have no idea.
Labor will hold Cowan easily on these CBet figures:
PRIME, Liz (ALP) 1.31
SIMPKINS, Luke (LIB) 3.15
will win Hasluck on these:
JACKSON, Sharryn (ALP) 1.45
HENRY, Stuart (LIB) 2.55
and is not the roughest in Sterling:
KEENAN, Michael (LIB) 1.60
TINLEY, Peter (ALP) 2.20
ALP will win either one or two MHR seats in WA, imho.
Whaddya reckon, Frank?
EC:
looks about right, and also the big upset will be Forrest – I reckon Brunning will win and do a Tony windsor, because of his TV profile in the South West via GWN.
Is this the poll they have been sitting on? If so it was taken before the campaign launches and before the AG busted the Coalition for pork barreling.
Any idea of how they sampled?
They “allegedly” (according to a post on Poll Bludger) tend to ring areas in electorates with a high coalition vote to produce whatever Paul Armstrong wants
Is this the poll which was reportedly held back, for a week?
Still not gone.
Sounds like they went back and polled a few more times until they got the result they wanted…
They rang everybody on Jutland Parade multiple times.
Nah, more like the Liberal Party Membership Database.
Speaking of WA Marginal Seats.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22771402-5006789,00.html
Another poll, more misery for the Coalition
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-601,00.html
“JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd and Labor hold their election-winning lead in key marginal seats.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, covering both parties’ election launches this week, the Coalition has failed to peg back Labor’s lead in the Government’s 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
On primary votes in the 18 seats, Labor extended its lead in the past two weeks to five points — 47 per cent to the Coalition’s 42per cent — to give the ALP a two-party preferred lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent.”
Is this new polling, or is it extrapolating from the last nation-wide Newspoll?
The WestAustralian will say anything if it suits their end game. As Paul Keating once said it is the worst paper in Australia and it has not lost any of that reputation over the years since. It is a blight on our democracy that such a powerful postion is in the hands of Strong Arm and his neo-conservitive hillbillies. The only poll that they won’t celebrate is the real poll next weekend where all will be revealed despite their over estimated influence. News papers as such are dead and this guy should get a real job where he has to earn his money and influence. I lived in WA for ten years and never bought one of their papers but I was always amazed at the headline story when I saw it in the shops. Full on negative Tory crap. If they ran a poll on the consumers approval of their only WA paper then it would never be published. They can keep up the crap all they like, it wakes more people up to their bias than influences how they say they should think.
If this poll is correct, it’s just another compelling reason for me to flee this idiotic and backward state.
Then again, it is Westpoll.
Frank i remember when our shop steward fessed up to being a liberal party diehard, was only in the job to get his percentage of the union dues collected. Not long after we gave him the arse the company went to electronic banking, the dues came out automatically and the new rep got his percentage for nothing. You could hear the old reps teeth grind across three machine shops. Laugh i nearly shat.
It’s all over!!!!!!! Shaninigans FINALLY ADMITS DEFEAT!!!!!!!
Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd holds his election-winning lead in key marginals.
Jesus… it only took 12 months!
LOL # 20
Hey all,
I just saw this poll on Sky News and came searching online for confirmation when I came across this site. Great site! so many intelligent people discussing the polls
Shame I missed it for the bulk of the campaign 
I’m glad to hear some people (and other threads) confirming what I thought; that Westpoll is about as reliable as a Howard promise.
Anyway, I’m a Bennelong voter hoping (in vain?) for the day our Sydney suburbs seat shows Howard the door, and ushers in a strong Labor candidate to help form the new government
Anyway… great site!
“The economy in this state is going so strong I reckon Daffy Duck could run the government,” says Heggie only half-jokingly. “At the moment, people are doing well and they’ll stay with what they know.”
If only Heggie could think ahead a little.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=145&ContentID=47301
So all’s well in WA land. We’ll have our GST back thankyou very much, ungrateful lot you are.
This is a state where people whinge when there is a scheduled rail outage or if trains run late cos of signal failure.
Shanahan: JOHN Howard only has one chance left to retain government: the published polls are wrong.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772670-17301,00.html
I’m happy with WA delivering it’s quota of an extra 2 seats to ALP.
As stated lots of volatility in this series. I’d be very suspicious if there wasn’t with the sort of error margins @n=400.
From the Kalgoorlie Miner re Nationals/Greens Senate Preference Deal.
http://kalgoorlie.thewest.com.au/Regionals.aspx?MenuID=243&ContentId=46963
Hmm.. can’t we just have WA ‘excised from the mainland’ *evil laughter*
Some recommendations from over the water …
The Spooky Mens Chorale – Vote The Bastards Out
I can only hope that this is yet another example of the well-known bias of the West Australian. After all, they predicted a landslide victory to Colin Barnett up until the last week of the 2005 WA election. Not to mention several very public quarrels between Armstrong (ed.) and Jim McGuinty (State A-G, ALP) and some kind of generic antipathy between Armstrong and the ALP generally – virtually all of the reporting has focussed on the Burke/Archer link, not the Fels/NCB link on the Lib side of the floor. Seriously, who did the West call? Every address in Peppy Grove?
And, yes, I am starting to believe that Labor can still get across the line even if they lose Brand AND Swan AND Cowan. It will simply ensure that WA misses out on the benefits of having a friendly government in power at the Federal level.
Mark #26,
Sure, you can have your GST revenue back. We’ll take our mining export revenues back, thanks…not to mention our income taxes, both of which subsidise the rest of the Commonwealth.
madcow #31,
Please do. Please…. lots of us want to be gone from the Commonwealth.
Actually I was thinking more along the lines of:
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/81excised.htm
Except that we change the phrase to “Australia for voting purposes”.
Don’t forget too that you guys have a lot of “Eastern Staters” working there now so we should perhaps be more refined and simply deny voting to those who were born in WA.
Hey, this is why we have a constitution and referendums after all. You know “majority of votes and majority of states” I’m sure it would pass
p.s. we don’t mind if you guys keep paying taxes of course
It has always been on the cards that we could lose a couple of WA seats in my opinion. However the swing to Labor is so strong in the East that it will not really matter anyway. Polls like this are a non-event in the scheme of things, they just serve to raise the Tory spirit a bit so that the crushing becomes even more painful when it happens
madcow #34,
Well, now the Eastern scheme is revealed! I knew that you ba$tards couldn’t be trusted any more than your wonderful “man of steel” PM. OK, done channeling Lyndon LaRouche for the day. :^)
From ABC online:
Mr Howard says the Government has lodged its pledges with the Finance Department and all its big commitments are now on the table.
“We’ve put out a lot policies. I think you can reasonably conclude that there won’t be any further major announcements made, but that doesn’t mean to say there won’t be the odd announcement which has particular value to a local community,” he said.
Do you mean Regional Partnership announcements, Ratty? LOL
Lateline last night was interesting, Hewson and Cameron were good, they both agreed that this is still a close election, the fact that they were both giving 12 to the ALP highlights the need for 5 more in the 5-7% category. Imagine how unworkable a LNP government with Katter as a number and an incredibly hostile Senate would look. Sorry, don’t imagine, to horrendous, but there is an element of an election within an election here. The leaks coming out of the ALP are saying things like 12-15 locked in, thats not government. If they do win it could still be about 77-85 seats. This is of course reflected in the Betting markets, Hewson mentioned this last night.
When the Daily Telegraph starts doing warm fuzzy ‘getting to know you’ stories for the Saturday morning papers, you know things are going your way.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22770498-5013922,00.html
Has everyone seen the new newspoll?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-601,00.html
47-42 (54-46)
It was marginals poll
Headlines from The Australian:
Rudd on course for victory
Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd holds his election-winning lead in key marginals.
REPORT: Unionist drops challenge to expulsion
GEORGE MEGALOGENIS: Rudd’s youth appeal
DENNIS SHANAHAN: Coalition clutching straw
SOL LEBOVIC: Labor commands marginals
NEWSPOLL: Cumulative results
SPIN CYCLE: Little fight left in dispirited incumbents
With friends like that, who needs enemies.
LaborVoter @ 21,
That’s great news!
So this just leaves Piers Hackerman, the Liberal trolls (such as Glen) and Labor pessimists (like LTEP) still predicting a from behind Coalition win.
Kiwipundit I repeat yet again that I’m not predicting a come from behind Coalition win. I just acknowledge it’s a possibility. As Shanahan says (I’m quoting him?) there’s the possibility that the polls are wrong, the marginals won’t swing etc. but it doesn’t look likely.
Just did a scan of Centrebet for Queensland electorates, Labor now clear favourites in 10, equal in 1, Coalition ahead in 17.
OK LTEP, I believe you.
I think this is still a good result for Labor – especially considering how strong the state has been for the Libs in most polls throughout the year.
Perhaps the total seat count might see Labor with a net gain of one?
BTW – on the polls are ‘wrong’ theory. Might be the case with one poll now and again – which is always the case hence the old MOE defence. But every poll – for a year?
Doubt it.
Perhaps it is not too late for a candidate from the Silly Party to make a run, vintage Monty Python:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31FFTx6AKmU&feature=related
My Hubby and i were joking the other day about Mark Vaile and pork in our electorate. Living as we do in the Bonny Hills/Lake Cathie area, we unfortunately have this man as our rep. Bonny Hills consistently votes higher Labor than Lib/Nats.After the 4oo thousand dollars to Lake Cathie Medical Centre we laughed about what he would try to do about Bonny Hills.As B.H. is a very small town with few options for pork. Mark,or one of his people,came up with 500 thousand for our Surf Club. Is this how one acts in so called safe seat? Or is there more to it? Or is this man just a joke? Sorry about going off topic.
S @ 39, holy toledo, you are right, has Rupert given a directive to be nice to our new PM. It is hard to believe but maybe he wants to curry favour now he has been down to sniff the breeze, or perhaps more accurately, the GALE.
The notion that you can draw a sample from 3 marginals and then infer anything about individual seats is a fantasy. However the statewide poll is more interesting because we have comparitive data and associated matching past non-uniform swing results. Looks like 1-2 to me.
As has been observed by many, Westpolls aren’t worth a pinch of the proverbial. They have no credibility at all, none, zip, yada, zero, the big O. They are crap, bulldust, nonsense, poop, camel dung, not worth the paper they aren’t written on. Please stop trying to draw conclusions from them. Its like trying to forecast the weather by looking into the toilet. Unedifying, and just not worth the time.
STOP IT, you’ll all go blind!
cheers,
Alan H
In the Australian Shamahan says,
“According to the latest Newspoll survey, covering both parties’ election launches this week”
The suggests it a new poll but its not clear if it was all sampled after the ALP launch. Either way ’tis good news for the ALP
The 18 most marginal seats in SA, NSW, QLD, & VIC have an average margin of just over 3%. If the ALP is now leading 54/46 this poll shows they key marginals swinging 7%
i’d really would like to know when the sample was taken – if some of it was before the ALP launch I think we are yet to see the high tide,
It’s not in the bag yet. As Rod Cameron said last night, there are only 10 or 12 gains locked in – with the possibility of losses in WA.
For the past two days the Tiser in Adelaide has run anti-union stories on Page 1. One was about a pub fight involving a meatworkers’ union official who had appeared in anti-Work Choices ads. Today’s splash is about a teachers union organizer who lunged at the PM with a pooper scooper (”to clean up the broken promises”). These lapses in discipline may well cost Labor victories in Sturt and Boothby and make it very tight in the other marginals.
I still think that it will be a very close election, with two or three seats in it either way.
Does anyone know how Debus is doing in Macquarie? last I heard, it was close. Also, what’s the story with other key marginals in NSW? Is Lindsay soft? What about Dobell, Robertson and Page? I suspect Labor needs all of them to win. We all know about Bennelong but much as I’d like to see the weasel tossed out, I’d be suprised. Any ideas?
WA will have a lot to answer for.
The eastern states should declare war, knock some sense into them, steal their thongs, cattle and women.
Tha’s my solution anyway.
There is no doubt that Westpoll is flawed. The West Australian should follow the example of The Advertiser in Adelaide. Tiser polls, though derided by some when they don’t produce the desired result, concentrate on individual seats with a good sample size of 700-800. They don’t get it wrong too often.
Good article by Alan Ramsay in today’s Herald on demographic splitsa on support compared to 2004:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/history-about-to-repeat-itself–in-reverse/2007/11/16/1194766964919.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
With Geraldine Doogue on ABC RN:
- Saul Eslake the ANZ economist saying just about all the Liberal verities they have espoused for the past 11 year are not worth an economic crock of ….
- Max Walsh, the noted Marxist commentator, opined that the government is “on death row”
- Two Minute Tim suggested that the Coalition will revert to a “Save our Senate” campaign in order to rescue Ron Boswell (!) and Marise Payne (!!) (and some senator you have never heard of from WA).
Gerr
I reckon we should deport Howard and his grubby rapscallions to WA!
If they want to live under a dictatorship….. they can have them.
Took a close look at Newspoll in marginal seats (ie I read the whole article)
Sample of 3615 – taken between Monday and Thursday – so only about 25% of the poll reflects the reaction to the ALP launch.
All points to the Libs needing a very good week to get back in the game. Not impossible – especially if the MSM goes a full court press in the final week.
Keeping it going Kevin – outstanding effort so far against a much more heavily reasourced opponent.
No, better off to send them to the prison of their own making, Nauru =D
I suppose that will have audio of Gerradeen’s show at http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/
Julie
There are vacancies at Gitmo and honest John could have Hicks’ old cell.
That would be fitting.
They probably polled their office and all the regionals they own!
Wheres the Galaxy Poll?!?!?
Phil Robins – 54
Please read this:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/lambert2007.pdf
and this:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/teh-surge-teh-narrowing-teh-victory/
and this:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/16/the-headline-forecast-%e2%80%93-regression-prediction-model/
Now please explain to all of us why what you think is more believable than what they think.
There is not the remotest chance that the election will be close. Labor’s primary will be above 46%. They cannot possibly lose with that sort of number. The absolute minimum would be 85 seats to them.
The voters of Bennelong will be told from now until the election, by all media, even including the Murdoch trash, that if they vote for Howard, they are voting for an ex Prime Minister. If the benefit of encumbency is 2.5%, he doesn’t have it any more. That means his margin is effectively halved, before any swing. Are you seriously suggesting he is the better of the two (real) candidates in Bennelong?
He’s gone, stuffed, had it, fargled, rooted. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.
cheers,
Alan H
When even Shanahan is writing
“JOHN Howard only has one chance left to retain government: the published polls are wrong.”
you know it’s all over.
Expect the debate this week to turn to “Libs after Howard”; “Costello as leader”; “Jostling for shadow treasury”; “ALP plans for transition” etc
By Friday, Bennelong may get more coverage than the overall election.
LTEP,
I’ve not been one of those here giving you a hard time because your cautions are a counterbalance to my becoming overconfident. But, come off it, mate, Dennis Shanahan is the last person you want to be quoting in support of your position. Anything Shanahan says now in order to save face is utterly worthless after umpteen articles spinning that the campaign momentum was all going Howard’s way (no matter what the numbers indicated).
Dennis Shanahan- Every silver lining has a cloud
Michelle in The Age – dunno how to do link thingys – has a yarn on Robert Ray quietly working away in Canberra preparing a mud map for the transition to power.
No mention of the newspoll in todays Aus? Sol Lebovic’s articel is good too. A bit hysterical maybe but anyway. The Australian Love in with Rudd continues as they sniff a change in the wind under foot etc…
It would be good to believe what these analysts say, Alan H, but polls after all are not predictive and statisticians are not politicians. Rod Cameron knows what the real world is like. We’ve all had our hopes dashed before. As Harold Wilson said, “A week is a long time in politics.”
Its time to start hitting th GG with the fact that by not keeping the Liberal party honest they have been one of the major players in it’s downfall. They have done more to destroy the conservatives than any of the left wing pundits. This is an appalling state of affairs and should reflect in the diminished respect and credibility of its right wing journalists. Shammaham, Albertdictator, Overnwoman, Paul Kelly et al have demonstrated just how stupid (by stupid I mean stupefied by their blind bias) they are. They need to read the fundamentals of psychology and get a handle upon cognitive dissonance. To hold themselves up as doyens of conservatism is a laugh. Nevertheless this is no laughing matter they have brought good journalism into disrepute and need to be accountable for the damage they have done. I am Labor through and through however their is no excuse for biting the hand that feeds you through blatant bias and stupidity. Please hit the GG where it hurts.
Ah fellow bloggers
My thoughts on Westpoll (probably crap) LP will gain net 2 in WA
Federally there are 3 scenarios being canvassed in the MSM & blogosphere
1. Narrow victory for the libs – I haven’t seen any polls which give this one much chance. The individual seat markets point to a tighter race but I have no evidence that these are reliable indicators of actual voting intention. So this scenario is discarded as unlikely.
2. Narrow victory for ALP – Again as above unless there are dramatic shifts in voter sentiment in the final week this also seems unlikely.
3. Landslide victory for the ALP – Backed up by 9 months of polling data, which has been picked over, crunched, analysed and tabulated until it hurts. Most plausible outcome.
Let those who have some reason to doubt scenario three backed up with either logic and evidence please come forth. Otherwise I”m off to pick up some Clare Valley reds.
Cheerio then
I haven’t seen any recent mention my favorite ad of the campaign.
Its been on Sydney tv, is it being broadcast anywhere else ?
‘The difference between Kevin Rudd and Mr Howard’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMII_3_4Fr4
No voice over, just the positive ‘ting’ of Rudd’s crystal clear optimism,
followed by the negative ‘bzzzzz’ of Howard debasing of his own cherished ‘Australian values’.
Then at the end Kevin’s portrait turns from black and white to colour.
I laughed.
All it needed was some baby unicorns frolicking in an Eden-Monaro idyll.
Baby unicorns that will all die if Howard is re-elected and 25 nuclear reactors are built.
DC here’s the Gratten article:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/strongmichelle-grattanstrong/2007/11/16/1194766965910.html
N1 – coalition to win next week at 48-52
Coalition retain Australia
I saw the Westpoll on Sky News and thought – oh no, we’re in trouble. Then I come on this wonderful site and realise that the poll is crap. Or is it crap because it tells you something you don’t want to hear? I hope it’s the former. By the way I have a bad feeling that many of you Labor voters (like me) will come on this website next Saturday night and scream insults at their fellow Australians – “how the f**k could you stupid bastards re-elect that scumbag!?!?”. I was on a website similar to this in 2004, many predicting a Latham win and come election night my fellow posters were screaming bloody murder! Hope 2007 is not a repeat as I like you guys being happy and confident. I too enjoy feeling (fairly) happy, not too confident though. Yeah yeah I know – the polls, the polls! But…
Maurico
I would not discount a hung parliament with the independents siding with Labor.
I believe Katter hates workchoices.
But if nothing ie rabbit, happens in the next week I would have to concur with your analysis.
One wonders what criteria they are using….?????
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772702-601,00.html
Can I ask a few Socratic questions of the cerebrally bereft Vaille?
1. Why is releaseing an independent report when it becomes available biased?
2. If the AG delayed releasing it until after the election to avoid embarrassment for Vaile, would that not have been truly biased?
3. If, unimaginably, the report showed that Vaile was acting properly and responsibly wouldn’t he have insisted it be released before the election?
Vaile hasn’t even been supported by the Rodent on this one. I’m going to enjoy seeing him in opposition.
70
Big Blind Dave Says:
Dennis Shanahan- Every silver lining has a cloud.
LOL
Diogenes
Vaile has outed himself as an out and out MORON.
Too sad to be true…once again I balled my eyes out at the poor bastard….
he knows not what he does!
RE WA
I think labor is unlikely to lose any seats they hold. 2004 was a very bad vote
there is an excellent chance to win Hasluck and Stirling approx 2% swings needed
Kalgoolie & Canning are possible because 2004 margins were very inflated due
to ALP stuff ups /candidate problems
Forrest can be lost to the libs to either labor or an independent depending on
the swing and relative votes
also as polls will be closing 2 hrs after the rest of Australia if the result is already
known …. can this improve labor’s votes in WA?
74 Stephen T- Shamaham argues, subliminally, in the GG that his deliberate distortions of the polls have helped the Libs by “allowing them to maintain discipline”! There’s some serious cognitive dissonance going on in that troubled mind!
dur WA people are behind the times. The state will not grow if people keep acting the idiotic way they do.
I know I’m off topic, but I just wanted to compare the minister for Pork’s background before entering parliament with that of the member for Bowman:
Laming:
Qualifications and occupation before entering federal Parliament
MBBS (Qld), DRCOG (London), MPubPol (NTU), MPA (Harvard), FRANZCO
Medical practitioner 1990-91 and 1993.
Landmine clearer, rigger and gymnasium manager 1992.
Aboriginal health researcher 1995.
Senior Ophthalmology registrar, Royal North Shore Hospital 1996-98.
Chief Executive Officer, Friends In Deed Organisation (FIDO) 1999.
World Bank consultant and travel writer 2000.
Health planning specialist 2001.
Ministerial adviser 2002.
Management consultant 2003.
And the distinguished minister for pork:
Qualifications and Occupation before entering Federal Parliament
Jackeroo 1973-75.
Farm machinery retailer 1975-78.
Stock, Station and Real Estate agent and Auctioneer 1978-92.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
hey scaper… how’s “the trump” going?
Howard in Shanahan says he is not feeling animosity around Aus….
Wake up call, neither did Keating in 1996 where the ALp was saying the same thing.
#60 I already see a lot of “Victoria the place to be” numberplates over here. Don’t send us howard too. I have a comedian colleague who has been doing John How-odd impersonations for a decade. He’s the only one who I’ll be sorry for if Labor wins.
Benna-long time, love it!
86 Dogford- Is Laming still practicing as an ophthalmologist?
Phil Robins @ 54.
I agree that the Union stories are getting a good run in the Advertiser over the last few days.
I’m not sure it will have a significant impact in Kingston, Wakefield & aking – I think they’re too far gone.
But Mia in Sturt & Nicole in Boothby must be cursing this kind of behaviour. A few votes WILL make a big difference there.
The “Pooper Scooper” guy yesterday has a right to air his opinion, but he needs to realise he is having a directly negative impact on the people he wants to see win. What an idiot.
Govt ‘walking away’ from Mersey hospital takeover
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093642.htm?section=justin
The Federal Government says it is still waiting for more information before it can take over the Mersey hospital in Tasmania’s north-west.
But the State Government is worried the Commonwealth will back away from its promise.
Thanks Grog
Luke. I think we all have a touch of the LTEPeds – too much scar tissue, but … the fat lady is waiting in the wings, all fired up on gin and tonic, bosom heaving … and ready to let rip …
THE Australian
We are Newspaper of The Year – Is this a joke?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772702-601,00.html
THE Australian has been named the Newspaper of the Year for the second time in three years.
It won the prestigious title at the 2007 News Awards held in Canberra last night.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t see the problem with WA. As per the ‘great man’ Antony Green, Labor’s 2004 TPP in WA was 44.6%. A 2007 TPP of 48% would result in a swing of 3.8% to labor and 2 seats.
Graham Edward’s (Cowan)vote dropped by 4.7% in 2004, compared to the WA average of 3.8%. It would appear his popularity is not a factor.
What is it with West Australians anyway? Do people become incapable of processing social policy when a fistful of dollars gets in the way?
mad cow, WA tried to excise themselves TWICE from the mainland. In the 30’s and the 70’s they voted to secede. The referendums were overruled by Britain. Such loyal Australians
Dont forget – coming up next Saturday……..
Super coalition increase majority
(It rhymes!!!!)
Shanahan sees the light about the theory that the Coalition will lose the TPP in a landslide but somehow hold the marginals:
“It just looks pretty lame when you put it next to marginal polling that’s no different to the national polling.”
Maurico 75
The latest Westpoll (with a large MOE) seems to be at
its most favourable to the coalition for some time.
Perhaps the underlying actual voting intentions
amongst the whole population are a little less favourable.
Nevertheless, this poll still shows a swing of about 3% to the ALP since
the last election.
That is more than enough for Labor to hold its
current seats and pick up two more.
I don’t see where anyone gets any idea that the Coalition
will pick up any seats in WA.
The mood on the streets is very much of a noticeable
proportion of the population moving to Labor after
having voted for the Liberals in the past. In helping
doorknock for months I have not met anyone
who is going to vote Liberal now having voted for
Latham last time!
From George M’s article today:
“The real action, they say, may be further up the electoral pendulum in places such as the nation’s wealthiest electorate, North Sydney, where Joe Hockey is sitting on a margin of 10.1per cent, but has 30.2per cent of voters aged under 35. Or Brisbane’s highest-income electorate, Ryan, where Labor requires a swing of 10.5per cent, but the youth comprise one in three (33.5per cent) of voters. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772669-11949,00.html
It’s 96 all over again – the ALP had no idea where to defend, and kept thinking the voters would change their minds in the booth.
make that a 3.4% swing
Grog
I don’t think it will be used …… yet.
It all looks good though.
Do you think that there is a rabbit or has Howard just run out of ideas?
Funny article in the Tiser by Chris Gallus, former Lib member. Seems to have joined Glen in Stage 5 of grief.
Says “Of the 18 Coalition marginals less than 5%, PM can afford to lose 13 and hold Govt, albeit with such a reduced margin Govt member’s lives for the next three years will be a misery as all leave is cancelled and dying is not a good enough excuse not to be in the chamber when the bells go.” LOL
I suggest that next Saturday, Labor poll booth
workers in WA should be encouraging voters to elect a local member
who is part of the new government rather than part
of a leaderless rabble in opposition.
This call will become increasingly clear as hints
and then actual results come in later in the afternoon.
I suspect that the Liberals will start to abandon their
posts at the same time.
Centrebet just blew the Coalition out to 4:60. Labor has come in to 1:20!!
There must have been some massive cash put on in the last hour
Centrebet
Market is open.
Pay on the party that provides the prime minister following the next election. Bets settled at the time of swearing in. All in. Win only. Singles only.
1. LABOR 1.20
2. COALITION 4.60
F*rk!
Sportingbet 3.60 to 1.28. There really must be a huge plunge on and I mean millions to change that quickly. Perhaps a few Rodents planning their retirement!
105: No rabbit, not even a hat.
Apart from pictures of Rudd and Swan doing the deed with Gillard AND the revelation that Abbot is in fact, the returning incarnation of Christ – its very hard to see anything next week which can stop the bulldozer.
I think a total media blitz of negative coverage for the next week MIGHT just reduce things to a close call.
94-54-2 (Hiding behind Possum’s predictions)
Centrebet gone crazy. $4.60 for LNP. Expect other bookies to blow out as well. Must be looking at the Newspoll marginals in today’s OZ!!
scaper – they got nothing. Their last hope is the Charter of Budget “honesty”. But even The Oz didn’t give that dog a run.
They’ll ramp up the fear campaign (allthough how much more can they ramp it up).
In reality they have till Wednesday to turn things around. If their ads don’t scare enough people by then, no issue that will come up can do it.
And their run at the last week has just been absolutely torpedoed by the RPP rorts. And when you have such a long document, you know it’ll only get worse as journo put out little tid-bits as they come across them. Newspapers love nothing more than a “we” caught the government ripping us off story.
Beazley was right (to an extent) a few weeks back when he said politics had a lot to do with luck. Of course that’s not the only thing, and yes you do make your own luck, but hoestly, every card has fallen Rudd’s way this campaign. When ever there was the slightest indication the govt might get some traction Abbott would say something, or a bad poll would come out etc etc.
I hope George Mega is right about Ryan being in play, I’ve got more than a coupla dollars riding on that one!
Simple equation for Labor in WA: hold all their existing seats, and pick up 1 or 2 extra.
Premature celebration in Fisher.
http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2007/nov/16/man-arrested-after-nude-run-mooloolaba/
93 Diogenes: He should start thinking about re-registering. Looking at the betting markets Bowman is absolutely in play!
There’s some good money to be made on some individual seats –
On sportingbet Kate Ellis is @ $1.10 – easy 10% interest there
The ALP is still more favourite to win the election than Australia is to win the test…
116 Ruawake: Love the non-stop go for growth ads for peter slipper on that streaker story.
Sportingbet still 3.60, that is a $1 difference to Centrebet, massive.
Andrews putting in a claim, alongside Abbott, for the most rediculously hilarious quote of the campaign, from an article about challenges to his detention regime: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772644-2702,00.html
“I think most people find it a bit absurd — this just seems to me to be mind-blowing legal pettiness,” Mr Andrews said.
109
Wow.
Bet $1000 on Labor on portlandbet at $1.30
Bet $282.61 on Libs on centrebet at $4.60
Guaranteed profit $17.39
1.5% return in a week?? that’s 80% p.a.
Mental note: move self managed super fund to portland bet account!
121 Pancho:
Most ridiculous quote of the campaign has to go to Costello:
“In reality, all elections in Australia are close. It depends, seat by seat, who wins and who has the majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the end of the election,”
What a nob end.
But Abbott, sensing a challenge, responds here, in an article about the government attempting to weasel out of its $1 deal for the Mersey Hospital: http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093642.htm?section=justin
“If you’re prepared to pay, that demonstrates that you are deadly serious,” he said.
That’s pretty good too Dogford. It seems the whole team is going vaudeville.
Betfair now moving as well. about 20c in last 15 mins
We still haven’t had any reaction to Rudd’s speech apart from the pundits’, and they’re not reliable.
As far as I can see there hasn’t been a formal poll yet that completely covers the two speeches – Rudd’s and Howard’s – plus a day or so for impressions to digest. The first poll to fulfill these criteria will be Newspoll.
I’m almost inclined to disagree with anything the pundits say, whether it’s good or bad for my side of politics.
Rudd’s is the first time a test has been applied to the image of the voter as a responsible participant in society (as opposed to a greedy, short-sighted welfare junkie with a shopping list). That is, it’s the first time anyone’s not only kept pork away from the Aspirationals, but has admitted this is exactly what he’s doing, and why.
I don’t think this test will do a lot of harm. It may not do any harm at all. But there could be a disaster (have I covered all the bases?). You should all remember that out there there is a whole generation of voters who have been bred to expect pork in large quantities to be ladled up onto their plates come election time. They sincerely believe this is what politics is all about. The believe their greed is totally justified on moral grounds. They don’t feel guilty about wrecking the economy by expecting inflationary largesse from the government, evne though in the end it wrecks their aspirations as well as everybody else’s. They’re like an ex-smoker*** who kids himself into believing that having just one won’t hurt. Howard encourages them in this, while Rudd wags his finger and talks about long-term ramifications, too far into the future to worry about. They see themselves as desperate and their desperation calls for emergency measures. The future can look after itself.
This situation is real. There are people like that out there; lots of them. Some of these will defect back to the Liberals. What I am hoping for is that some of the Lib voters, disgusted at Howard pushing the addictive drug of instant gratification will defect the other way.
The Newspoll should give us some idea.
*** yes I’m still off the fags.
Just to prove he really said it, here’s shamaham quoting him:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-601,00.html
What was I thinking, Abbott has no competition on this front. From here, failing to acknowledge that government has ever been won from opposition: http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/election-still-winnable-says-abbott/2007/11/16/1194766913656.html
“Let’s not forget that it would be totally unprecedented for the Australian electorate to throw out a good and competent government for an un-tried opposition,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22771287-5000117,00.html
Another way of looking at things.
Dang, I can’t find any takers for my 1.32 bet on labor on BF! ANybody? AnybodY?
I hope these conservative commentators put their money where their mouth was! It would be good to know that my extensive winnings came from shanahan, bolt, etc…
Re 96,
Derek Corbett Says:
That wouldn’t be Dolly would it?
just got 1.30 on portlandbet!
I know the comment count has gone up, but I can’t get past 105!
Maybe if I post, this will sort this problem out.
What the heck is going on with these odds? $4.60???
That’s a $1 jump. Something odd is afoot.
Fellow pole bludgers – NOTE:
From my observations Centrebet has been the agency that has led the major market moves. LIB, as has been reported, is now out to 4.60.
The Dessicated Coconut is now rated at the same probability of winning as Latham was at the same stage at the last election.
Jes-a-len-ko
Yo-byo-tay
HELP , where is the News poll 18 marginal seat poll that Shanahan of the OZ is commenting on as being AFTER THE LAUNCHS ??? . The ONLY poll on the site is a 2 week cumulative which has the same 2 PPP result which Sol of News poll comments on as marginal seat polling oin the last TWO weeks
Has Centrebet been hacked like what occured earlier this week???
Nice Westpoll. Our Western compatriots can obviously see right through Krudd’s stunts and lies.
Meanwhile, the vastly more substantial Mark latham has written another piece for the Financial Review:
Former Labor opposition leader Mark Latham has derided his former party’s campaign against Work Choices as fear-mongering and cynical, while lambasting swinging voters as materialistic and apathetic.
…[H]e labelled Labor claims that a coalition government would take Work Choices further as cynical, saying no one in the party truly believed the election message.
…Mr Latham also questioned the effectiveness of polls, saying they had become too saturated to now be an accurate gauge of what voters are thinking.
“The polls have such a high profile, saturating the news media and setting the political agenda, they have lost any sense of anonymity,” he said.
“The polls have drifted beyond their core purpose, as a neutral, scientifically-based assessment of public opinion.
“People now understand they can be used in a different way, registering a protest vote. This has given polls a byelection feel, the chance to make a political statement without having to change the government.”
He is spot on about the polls. He also calls for the abolition of compulsory voting,
and he’s right on that score, too. There are a lot of cretins out there who have no business voting (most of them Labor voters).
I still can’t get past 105!
This is the fourth thread this has happened on here.
Oh well, I’ll try again later.
Betfair has the Libs at $4.30, Centrebet at $4.60
Portlandbet and Sportsbet keep them at $3.50
Looks like someone woke up this morning, read the papers and decided to put their money down.
Hey I am an LTEP until last night & today. Landslides dont’ happen without a few of the safest front-bencher seats falling too – otherwise its just a close call. Here you guys telling me that some of the safest Liberal seats look bad for the Coalition despite betting odds? And national odds suddenly firming up hard for the final days?
Bushifre Bill @ 128 – Yeah, that was a Big Risk for Rudd, playing the Sorry-No_Pork-Kiddies card. Big gamble, rolling the dice – will it work? It seems to be.
Gerr @131
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA from the Herald Sun:
“How will Costello, Downer and Abbott go in Opposition? I suppose if they don’t like it they can just quit. As Abbott so proudly pointed out, WorkChoices has given them that freedom.”
That is just soooo *classic*. I lurv it!!
This site should now be renamed PollBludgerbet, (or just bludgerbet…)
@140 Steven: I used to be a firm supporter of compulsory voting but no more.
Why should the people that care the least (the swinging voters) matter the most when it comes to the future of this country?
It’s near impossible to get a change of government when most of those voting are apathetic and/or ignorant.
The “if it ain’t broke it don’t need fixing” argument I hear all the time from the politically apathetic really grates. It’s only perceived as not broken a lot of the time because those people don’t actually bother to keep informed politically.
And Steven Kayes purpose in life is…..?
Ive met more interesting pond life.
#128: “What I am hoping for is that some of the Lib voters, disgusted at Howard pushing the addictive drug of instant gratification will defect the other way.”
I suspect that Rudd knows what he is doing here (or at least I hope so!). Given his recent movements through the second tier Liberal held seats, that is, on margins between 5 and 10%, Rudd and Labor might be thinking that these are the seats where the election really will be won. The talk about North Sydney in danger is just one example of what is in store, and that is on a margin that is above 10%.
Overall, the crowd in these seats are probably less dependent on the handouts. And what Rudd did on Wednesday was appeal to the core instinct of the Liberal voter – restrain spending. This is one of those issues that they have always had with Labor, that is, the idea that Labor always spends too much, which gets the country into debt and economic trouble.
I believe that it is the small-l Liberal in particular who has been turned off this government, especially after Hicks, Haneef, Tampa, Iraq and you know the rest. But these people have also been turned off WorkChoices, not because it affects them directly, but they worry about their children being exploited in the workforce.
Leaving aside today’s Newspoll on marginal seats, I reckon there will be some big surprises on election night. Some marginals won’t go to Labor. But some unexpected semi-safe government seats will.
re post #140: most Sandgropers can’t see 10cm in front of them, let alone the carnage in store for the rodent in just 7 days time…
…i’ve worked for Strong Arm, he’s not a fool – he would know it’s all over bar the shouting.
this poll is just another joke like all Wespolls
Stephen Kaye, I take it you voted for Mark Latham?
His interjections are great for the Labor cause. Liberals scrambling all over them smacks of panic, and Rudd is able to look even more safe. It has the same effect as unionists getting angry with Labor.
I accept that is an interesting hypothesis about the polls, but I don’t accept the premise. There is more of a story BEYOND the polls, given that Labor has been objectively so far ahead for so long, and this is what is being reported on. I don’t think the polls themselves have become something more than they were in a wider sense.
Apparently Centrebet read my comments on betting in yesterdays Morgan thread.
Yeah Kaye is a Latham truebeliever.
Misty@145, for all the nuances of the argument about compulsory voting, I have heard nothing that trumps the argument that democracy should be about rights AND responsibilities. It seems a little defeatist to give up, and opens the door to US style apathy and money politics. A better approach is in more education and engagement.
Just a quickie on the betting thing. Do any contributors know if these betting mobs offer a “pick the score option”, like a trifecta thing.
I would like to get set on 88-60-2 as the final result.
The final composition of the senate (now there’s a task) would be interesting too.
A lot more reward for being accurate.
What do you think of the betting Steven K ? Hahahaha
With overall odds moving like this, individual seat prices have got to start to collapse shortly.
149 Pancho – I agree –
The story of the polls has become so prominent exactly because of their content. If it were the same old story, it would not be front page news all the time.
Latham claiming that they become less scientific simply because they are prominent in the media is plain wrong.
PS I loved Latham, and still believe he would have been a wonderful PM. I was not alone either, although everyone seems to have forgotten their fondness for the thug.
Yes Pancho, to the same proportional extent.
Might get a lazy lobster on the weatherman while he’s at 7-1.
hmm, North Sydney still great value, best outside punt for my money.
Sportingbet 3.75 to 1.26. The best bets are going to be in the seats which will catch up later to the plunge.
Diogenes, isn’t that like saying the horse that starts with the biggest odds but ends up winning is the best bet?
I reckon the regional rorts and Vaile bagging the Auditor-General could keep Howard on the back foot this week. Suspect we’ve only heard the beginning of that story. The ABC briefly ran a story as the lead yesterday saying that Howard’s office was directly implicated in some of the funding shenanigans; here’s the link: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093520.htm
That story’s been buried at the moment, but the MSM are huffing and puffing about Vaile today, and odds are that some enterprising journalist is out there trawling through the 1200 pages preparing to cut loose.
If you go to the ABC site and search under the terms ‘howard rorts’, you’ll find the rodent has form on this one.
Luke 79:
The difference here is that Latham’s demise was more-or-less a fait accompli before the first vote was even cast. All you had to be doing was paying attention and you knew this. Rudd, on the other hand, shows no signs of losing.
Not that I am going to do any more betting (have put money down on 5 different seats nationwide and will just sit on that) BUT when do the bookies stop taking money on the election? Is is Saturday morning? Can you still bet during the day? Or is it a rolling bet pending when the polls close in your area?
Simply just curious that is all …….
Dogford 161- My point is that betters have been very slow to put their money on individual seats for Labor. With the odds of a Labor win so short now, there will be a lot of near certain seats to fall to Labor which are yet to shorten so represent better value than the overall outcome.
Diogenes @ 160,
SportingBet has updated: 1.25 / 3.85
Diogenes, OK, fair point. Easy to get carried away though. 10% is pretty farking unlikely in anyone’s book.
McKew, Bailey, and Newhouse (until recently coming the raw prawn) have been the best odds all along because they’ve been incessantly manipulated by Liberal Party supporters (and pocket change from personal uber-rich friends of the incumbents?) for the purpose of maintaining a fictional “lead” for the PM and his two high profile Ministers.
So Latham has spoken out again ay!
Latham’s jealousy of Rudd must be unbearably excrutiating. These little squirts help him feel better.
OMG. 23 soon to be ex-coalition MP’s are to be crucified….. Oh the humanity!!!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pCWw6W5NEa8
Good Q Julie. I would imagine as soon as counting starts.
Newhouse will come good, dont you worry about that, he’s not a complete schmata!
Julie, he’s what iasbet site tells us:
Saturday 24 November, 2007
Winner ? Australian Federal Election 7:59AM GMT +11:00 Selection Win
Labor 1.28
Coalition 3.65
Pancho@152 – I used to think that myself. Better civic education and expanded platforms for engagement were the answer.
But as I’ve gotten a bit older and lot more cynical I’ve come to believe that here are just a lot of people that don’t and will never give a rats about politics no matter how much civic education or opportunities for engagement that they are provided with. And it is those people, unfortunately, that tend to actually decide election results – usually in favour of the incumbent.
Have you seen the top news stories people click on online each week are? It’s mind boggling.
My belief that a properly functioning society needs governmental change on a more regular basis than we are getting now has trumped my belief that every citizen ought to be compelled to have a say in their society’s future.
167 Dogford- Actually I was more thinking of the Qld seats Longman (which I have long ago said was over the odds), Petrie, Flynn, Bowman. These seats are all at better than evens and I’m almost certain they will all go. The 10 to 1 shots I agree are far-fetched.
The last time they did a marginal seat poll they didn’t add it to their webpage until Monday.
So if you want to see it buy the Australian. Or wait for it to appear on http://www.mumble.com.au
Alan Ramsey isn’t shy:
“That’s what the pungent scent of victory does. And have no shred of doubt, a week out, that Labor is going to romp this one, just as Howard did almost 12 years ago. ”
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/16/1194766964919.html
[“That’s what the pungent scent of victory does. And have no shred of doubt, a week out, that Labor is going to romp this one, just as Howard did almost 12 years ago. ”
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/16/1194766964919.html
He said pretty much the same thing during the last election campaign.
ShowsOn- I refer to your laughter at my expense yesterday re Mia’s marriage. With Mia now almost certainly off to Canberra, this will put an enormous strain on her marriage. I’d love to see the stats on how long political marriages last but I’m sure it’s not long. And if she loses, she’s going to need a lot of consoling. Either way, it’s really just a matter of time.
Re compulsory voting – Crikey recently ran a piece (by Norman Abjorensen (sp?), I think) suggesting that compulsion was responsible for the way election campaigns have degenerated into pork-barrelling contests directed at the marginals. But I reckon this is getting the cart before the horse. One good thing about compulsory voting is that it prevents governments from getting in on extreme platforms with very low turnouts (Thatcher and Reagan were two examples). In the US, it’s almost got to the stage where you can tell an election result from the turnout before people have even voted. The Republicans under Karl Rove worked out that they could use voluntary voting to their advantage by deliberately using negative advertising to put voters off the idea of attending and keep the turnout low. That’s why the Libs have come unstuck trying the same trick here – people vote anyway, and the negative advertising rebounds on the party that does it.
Not saying that pork-barrelling isn’t a problem, but there are probably better ways of approaching it. George M over at the GG suggested a porking blackout before elections, much like the advertising blackout. That mightn’t be a bad idea.
I admire your commitment.
I believe she has been married for about 1 year.
Diogenes – I’m with you – look for ALP seat odds at $2.50+
All the real betting on individual seats usually happens in the last week (so a lot of seats like Boothby with Cornes at $3.00 will have a “narrowing”). If you want to be on the ALP do it now.
3% swing to Labor in WA would not be a bad result, Hasluck and Stirling would be gained and Cowan has a good chance of being retained.
Just on the Westpoll poll.
The ALP vote in WA in all the state breakdowns we’ve seen since the campaign started has the ALP TPP at ~ 49%. This poll given its MOE, showing the ALP at 48% sounds pretty right. It’s a clear swing of 4-5% to the ALP and probably two seats.
As for huge swings between the two Westpolls, that’s incorrect.
I’ve got a good feeling that the result of the election will be decided well before we start hearing results from W.A.
Grog, just be careful though. You must pick the right seat.
140
Steven Kaye Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 11:14 am
“…. the vastly more substantial Mark latham has written another piece for the Financial Review…”
…..
vastly more substantial?? Latham is right up there with Alexander Downer in the all-time-worst leader stakes. His main purpose these days is to make a few easy $while trying to make himself look good. Substantial my a$#e
Not quite on the topic of the Westpoll, but does anyone know why Labor are running ads in Canberra attacking Chris Gulaptis (Nationals candidate in Page) for his support of WorkChoices? I saw them last night, and was thinking “err, haven’t you guys got the wrong seat?”
My bets on the election ($20 x 5 = $100)
Longman @ 3.05, will return $61
Greenway @ 4.45, will return $89
North Sydney @ 5.00, will return $100
Warringah @ 11.00, will return $220
Bennelong @ 2.50, will return $50
I feel fairly confident that I will make the original investment back
140
Steven Kaye Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 11:14 am
“…the vastly more substantial Mark latham…..calls for the abolition of compulsory voting and he’s right on that score, too. There are a lot of cretins out there who have no business voting (most of them Labor voters).
….
I always suspected Latham was a closet Lib. He certainly has no respect for LAbor voters, much like you, Steven.
Hope you pick up $520.
Curiously, I can’t find Shamaham or Overies names on the list of News luminaries who won the “prestigious” News Awards. Perhaps they were still out campaigning. I predict that in the next week, Overies starts looking for a new job and that Shama prints a long-overdue fessup to having misread the polls (indignantly citing incompetence as the reason rather than anything more sinister a al AWB Dolly).
ABC News, Noon. Another submarine has been found and destroyed in the jungle in Colombia. The third, I think, so far. Apparently, the drug runners now use subs to deliver their filth …
Maybe a few got through and have been leased to the libs for the evacuation …
Rudd in Adelaide marginals today.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/rudd-visits-shopping-centre-in-adelaide/20071117-1axi.html
Yep Centre – very careful (but I put $10 North Sydney after reading George M).
Centre,
You know it
……. Abbott was an inspired choice and I got my money in on him the same day as the health debate fiasco. I saw the wheels falling off of his wagon already then. Interestingly, his odds have not moved since we got our bet on. If you want a longshot, you can still get Labor in Warringah at 11.00. Given Abbott still has 7 more days to shoot his boss in the foot over and over again, it might be worth the chance I reckon 
Centrebet is paying $11. Portlandbet is paying $12. I can’t remember which agency our bets were placed with but I know we got Warringah for $11.
Whatever happened to our dear leader’s anti-drug onslaught? I thought it was all gearing up when we got that crap in the mail and the ads of kids saying to their middle class baby boomer parents, ‘mummy have you ever tried drugs?’ He has dropped the odd reference here and there, but there has been very little.
140
Steven Kaye Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Nice Westpoll. Our Western compatriots can obviously see right through Krudd’s stunts and lies.
Meanwhile, the vastly more substantial Mark latham has written another piece for the Financial Review:
…He is spot on about the polls. He also calls for the abolition of compulsory voting,
and he’s right on that score, too. There are a lot of cretins out there who have no business voting (most of them Labor voters).”
hey,Steve, there are also cretins on this blog giving their elitist opinions (mainly you). Voltaire & I both disagree with what you say, but I’m b*ggered if I’ll defend to the death your right to say it!.. like the little boy told to stop w*nking or he’d go blind, I’ll defend your rights till I need glasses.
Hey Eddy, you’ve always got something to be assertive about. How would you spin this from a historical perspective?
1. LABOR 1.20
2. COALITION 4.60
CBet 10 AM Q time.
I think this sums it up- hillarious and true!
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/screensaver
check it out!
197,
That is because they would be hypocrites if they continued that campaign. They are sharing the good stuff with the back benchers and the reporters over at the Australian. Why do you think that some people would still be believing that they can still win this thing? Must be some powerful drugs that they are doing
#149 –
“Stephen Kaye, I take it you voted for Mark Latham?”
Actually, several years before Latham became Labor leader I saw him being interviewed on Lateline and was very impressed. I didn’t know much about him back then and thought he was intelligent, reasonable and balanced – indeed, I told the person next to me that I’d be quite happy to see him as Opposition Leader.
Of course, by the time he assumed that position I’d learned just how unstable and dangerous he was. But I still think he’s a hundred times smarter and more principled than this creature Krudd.
And the betting? Hah! Just driven by polling. Even that Labor sycophant Mumble doesn’t believe in the predictive power of the betting market.
Julie,
All Labor has to do now to take Warringah is pledge money to renovate Brookvale Oval
S.K says
Yeah but you do Steven, or at least you used to when the Coaltion were favourites
Timbo – Labor giving money to the Sea Eagles would be taking this concept of a new ALP for all too far.
202 Steven – you’re talking tough but even you must be feeling that it’s over for your pet rat. Come on, admit it.
True Pancho,
But I’m a Manly supporter so really want them too
hhahahahahqh Howard just said he hopes to play more golf in the near future.
I think he will have A LOT OF TIME to pursue as much golf as he wants.
203
Steven Kaye Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
“Stephen Kaye, I take it you voted for Mark Latham?” ….”Actually, several years before Latham became Labor leader I saw him being interviewed on Lateline and was very impressed.”
….
Yeah, Latham was always a bit of a Lib at heart. To suggest that “he’s a hundred times smarter and more principled than this creature Krudd” shows how much you’re hurting, Steven. Latham – principled? smart? You kid no-one but yourself.
From Michael Gawenda, article:
“It’s not just Latham who thinks Rudd will lead a conservative government even more conservative than the Howard Government.”
“After the launch, Tom Uren – the Whitlam government minister, the old left-wing firebrand who considered himself – and was considered by some at least – to be the conscience of the party, ancient-looking now but still big and imposing and, yes, affectingly charismatic – who undoubtedly could sing every line of The Internationale at the drop of a hat – seemed pleased and sad at the same time.”
John Quiggin has guest post on the betting markets.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/17/guest-post-from-don-harding/
Sorry…Gawenda, new director of Melbourne University’s Centre for the Advanced study of Journalism. From here: http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/what-you-see-is-what-youll-get/2007/11/16/1194766972760.html
Michael, if you drop by here, hang onto the sub-editor/s for a while.
Although I have slightly undercut my argument with a double post
To all those GG “journalists” who whinge about Mediawatch bias, this is interesting. The agency with the most unfavourable mentions in 2007 was ABC Radio (big hello to Chris Uhlman). The GG only came about seventh!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/strongmediastrong-journalists-are-now-under-intense-scrutiny/2007/11/16/1194766958570.html
Before we became blogists, many of us used to write letters to the editor. This one’s from today’s Manly Daily which is Citizen Rupert’s widely distributed organ in The Mad Monk’s seat of Warringah.
“Press the local MP for Brookie funds
DID you know that Tony Abbott won his seat by exactly 15,704 votes last election?
If every Manly Sea Eagles supporter in the Warringah electorate was to vote against Tony Abbott on November 24, we would have the power to make Warringah a marginal seat.
We could then enjoy watching the politicians jump over each other in their fight to spend money, just like John Howard is doing in his own electorate, Bennelong, which has gone marginal, and where the Prime Minister has pledged $12 million funding to a health facility – the Royal Rehabilitation Centre – but which up to now has always been a state responsibility. And Federal Labor has pledged millions to upgrade Leichhardt Oval – the Wests Tigers’ home ground.
Come on footy fans. Now is the time to engage in the democratic process. If we don’t get a firm commitment of funding before the election it will be too late to save our Sea Eagles’ natural home.
Let Abbott know and get him to act in your interests. That’s his job.
Louise Hislop, North Curl Curl”
I think Alan H. ( at 67) has nailed poor Mr Robbins (at 54) to the wall. I have been one of the extreme Labor pessimists on this site, but I recant…Labor by 10 at least. I also recant previous criticisms of the Labor campaign team – they have cleverly ‘roped the dopes’, letting the Coalition desperately flail at them for the first couple of weeks, minimising their own gaffes and just letting the Coalition campaign unravel, which it has substantially done. Stayed positive, looked at least like they had ‘vision’ and Bob’s your Aunty.
Kevin Rudd may play the Nerd, but in this campaign he is Mr T to an aging Rocky Rodent. A great speech at the launch by Rudd. This ‘Queensland Public Servant’ will do me. To wedge Rodent on campaign spending is just sheer genius and very brave – I bet a lot of the credit should go to John Faulkner for campaign tactics like this.
I think Kevvie should now just relax this weekend and so should the rest of the team if they can – no sense in getting sick by pushing too hard at the line. ( and Kevvie was croaking on radio Thursday and Friday I believe).
The Coalition must now play desperate ‘catch up’ football. They’ll bugger up more than they get right doing that, as they have so far demonstrated. Rudd has displayed truly admirable ‘public service’ discipline thus far. No need to do anything spectacular – can even keep the dirtiest smears in the bottom drawer, but if there is anything about Heffernan, please feel free to air, just to kick the bastard on the way out!
The only way Labor can be beaten now is, as that funny American quote goes: by Kevvie ‘being caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl’. Sounds like he had too much fun at Scores to be caught with a boy, dead or alive.
Even PortlandBet seat-by-seat now says ( or was saying) Labor by at least 8 with 2 independents. Labor does seem certain to score at least 45 PV, to Coalition 40 PV at best. That’s at least 54 2PP for Labor if Greens poll well and ALP wins easily on that number, even if some strange things happen in some seats. The trend in the polls is so consistent and with Labor clearly having the momentum in the campaign, it could yet be a complete rout, except in WA and to a lesser extent in NSW, as the NSW Govt is in serious trouble over dead kiddies.
Only two issues in this campaign, the Rodent declared ‘class war’ on workers and their unions via Serf Choices and blatantly lied about interest rates he knew had to go up, with the incredible claim they would still be even worse under Labor.
I think this lapsed Catholic will return to the Church if Rodent loses his seat and Labor wins the election, as there must be a God in Heaven if this comes to pass. ( Sorry Kevvie, you will be ‘God’ then, won’t you, if not Emperor Kev? ) Saint Maxine, I Worship you and your able Bishop Hogg.( Apologies for the hint of blasphemy).
Tracy Holmes parting shot to John Howard in the cricket lunchtime interview: “May the best man win”. Onya Tracy!
Maxine into $2.50 with Centrebet
Anything that comes out in the West Australian has to be taken with truckloads of salt. It has had more about Ben Cousins during this campaign than politics, and it is the organ of the rabid right even more so than the GG.
Westspolls have been all over the place and with large MOE’s, so its really not worth getting exited about.
Most likely outcome is that the ALP picks up 2 and loses none. Surprises may be Canning, Forest (indy), Kalgoorlie and Brand, and most of those will be bad news for the LNP if they shift.
Hey, everyone working the booths over hear will have radio’s in their ears listening for coverage from over east as we know it will be decided before the WA results are coming in, hell, before our booths close.
And watch it with hanging crap on us! You never know, we may be home 2 the two most senior members of the LNP left in parliament after this election, Tuckey and Bishop!! Some respect please!
Current odds at Sportingbet:
Lab $1.25/Lib $3.85
At Centrebet:
Lab $1.20/ Lib $4.60
There’s a narrowing happening all right… in Labor’s odds!!!
The bookies are going nuts.
Lasseters (NT) 4.75
Centrebet (NT) 4.60
Sports Acumen (ACT) 4.00
Sportingbet Oz (NT) 3.85
CanBet (UK) 3.65
Victor Chandler (UK) 3.50
Dial a Bet (VU) 3.50
Portlandbet (ACT) 3.50
Sportsbet (NT) 3.50
Pancho @ 212
Sorry, thick as a brick today … what’s the ref to Gawenda “new director … etc”
Also, couldn’t bear to wade through it … does it need subbing?
Betfair is now at Lab $1.28/Coalition $4.30. That’s moved from Coalition $3.65 last night…
I think Andrew Bolt is saying that the Galaxy Poll tomorrow re marginal seats shows a different result to Newspoll today. Can someone have a look at his blog and see if this is how you interpret it?
BTW some of the bloggers on Andrew’s site are truly amazing / frightening. One rusted on Liberal has announced that she is cancelling her subscription to The Australian given their blatant electioneering for Labor today.
Like some others on this blog I am still a bit nervous. Though I have had a delightful morning – reading the Aus and the Age. I would be so desolate if the unthinkable happens next weekend, but on the other hand it is very enjoyable to think of the enormous discomfort going on at Coalition HQ at this very moment, no matter want happens. The Coalition was so smug for so long, and really expected Labor to self destruct.
Constant Lurker,
The Galaxy poll out tomorrow shows Labor up in the marginals 53-47. We just don’t know which marginals…
Thank you Swing Lowe – you have eased my anxiety
As conservative as Rudd is we have been presented fairly explicitly with two different models of government by the respective parties in this election.
Forward with fairness (the European model) v an opportunity society (the U.S. model)
It’s a simplistic analysis I know, but it’s still a choice I feel people will be making in this election.
I’m quite concerned by just how far Howard and Costello may take welfare, health and industrial relations reform should they win a mandate to complete the transformation of Australian into an ‘opportunity society’.
I can deal with conservatism if it is moderated by a sense of compassion and a stronger sense of accountability.
Derek@222, sorry, I could use some subbing myself. Nothing controversial about the content, but the Gawenda article is the worst writing I have seen in the Herald for ages. Almost 10 line sentences, subclauses everywhere, and a meandering thread that Paul Sheehan would probably be proud of. Perhaps Hartcher was ill and they asked Michael to knoch up a few thousand words yesterday afternoon.
Constant Lurker,
I guess what Bolt is alluding to is the fact that the primaries in the Galaxy poll are split like this:
Coalition 43
Labor 42
Greens 11
Numbers that seem slightly odd, given the unexpected spike in Green votes from every other poll that we’ve seen this year…
#209 -
“Yeah, Latham was always a bit of a Lib at heart. To suggest that “he’s a hundred times smarter and more principled than this creature Krudd” shows how much you’re hurting, Steven. Latham – principled? smart? You kid no-one but yourself.”
Hurting? Nope!
I repeat, there was a time when I thought Latham was the future of Labor and was comfortable with the idea. Tanner, too. But Krudd? I had nothing but contempt for him from the minute I first saw him interviewed.
But didn’t they say on Lateline it was in 6 marginals?
The Newspoll was in 18, but not Stirling, Hasluck, Bass, Braddon or Solomon.
Constant Lurker, I was one of the nervous nellies but now becoming relaxed and comfortable
– the rat is well and truly cornered now.
Don’t you think that it’s possible that the bookies are very worried about the lop-sided state of their books. It seems that the weight of money has been about 75%/25% judging by Sportingbet’s data. If the average price for Labor from start to finish has been about 1.40, then they will pay out 1.4 x 75 = 105, versus collection of 100. If the Coalition were to win at an average price of say 3.00, then that would mean 3 x 25 = 75 versus collection of 100.
This is just an example, but it shows why they might simply be wanting any money they can get on the Coalition at this point. They need to get their books so that it doesn’t matter who wins, they win. At the moment, that may not be the case.
Ok, Pancho, thanks. (Subbed him for years, in another life).
Steven Kaye, lay off it mate. Do I go around demeaning Howard by calling him Howard the Coward, Rattus Rattus, The Rodent, etc? Well, yes I do. But that’s not the point, calling the next PM Krudd is quite rude. He has outplayed your little man from the first minute you saw him interviewed.
I think we should take Alan H’s advice on this poll (ie. take this poll with a grain of cyanide).
Let’s reserve judgement on our WA friends until after the election – they haven’t voted for H*ward yet!
It’s just a worthless 400-odd sample poll from perhaps Australia’s worst newspaper (though this would be hard fought prize this year, but I can assure you a Murdoch paper has a good chance of winning this award).
Love this from a response in the Bolt blog:
“The so called official polls like Galaxy, Newspoll, Morgon Poll etc., have Rudd way in front of John Howard and yet they only poll 800 to 1200 people. I’ve also heard that Newspoll struggle to get 10% of people phoned to agree to be polled…
However, all the online polls that I can find seem to tell a different story.
Courier Mail-Brisbane– Liberal/National 54%, Labor 36%, Greens 5%.. (7399 votes)
West Australian-Perth– Liberal/National 55%, Labor 38%.. “
Samuel K, I think from a business point of view, bookies wouldn’t be too upset at taking a small loss on something like an election. They get:
- heaps of publicity and activity
- people used to the idea of betting on weird(er) things
- lots of non-regular betters opening accounts
And beyond these reasons they do not have an ongoing loss market.
LOL… have a read of this comment by some git on Andrew Bolt’s blog:
“The so called official polls like Galaxy, Newspoll, Morgon Poll etc., have Rudd way in front of John Howard and yet they only poll 800 to 1200 people. I’ve also heard that Newspoll struggle to get 10% of people phoned to agree to be polled…
However, all the online polls that I can find seem to tell a different story.”
Swing Lowe at 229, my own experience of friends and family suggests a ’swing’ to the Greens. Up until now the main concern has been to boot out Howard. But the thinking is now – give the Greens a boost so that Rudd knows that The Greens have following. 2nd preference to Labor. It really makes no difference in the end result.
There is an interesting comment from a young mother in one of the papers today. She said she can teach her baby daughter to manage in an economy gone bad, but she can’t help her much to manage an environment out of control.
More on Krudd refusing to be scrutinised properly, opting to chat with Rove instead of Barrie Cassidy on Insiders. Apparently Cassidy is furious and this is what he said yesterday:
“To refuse to go on Insiders fits a pattern. There are only two programs that focus exclusively on politics – Insiders and Meet The Press. He hasn’t done either in this campaign and he’s not going to,” Cassidy said yesterday.
“But he will be doing lots of FM radio. One senior journalist, I won’t say who, said to me yesterday: ‘We all know we have to go to war against Kevin Rudd as soon as the election campaign is over.’ Perhaps we should have declared it earlier.”
Steve re post #211.
Many pieces have been written on the betting market by academics in the past. ALL the ones which I had read were scientifically, according to wagering probability, flawed.
That particular university economics professor, Don Harding was it, is the first to embrace the sort of logic and sophistication that I have been explaining on this site.
Everybody was saying that the main betting was more accurate than the individual seats betting. This guy is saying that the individual seats betting is more accurate than the main betting.
The truth is, as I said in the Morgan thread yesterday, that the main market and the individual seats market are equally accurate.
Grog — snap!
211
Pancho Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
From Michael Gawenda, article:
“It’s not just Latham who thinks Rudd will lead a conservative government even more conservative than the Howard Government.”
….
This stuff about Rudd being “conservative” is an easy fiction, subscribed to by those who really don’t want to have an unblinking look at the record of the Howard Government, and who don’t want to look too far into the future either.
Howard is an old-time partisan ideologue who has manipulated, cheated, lied, scare-mongered and bribed his way through the last 12 years. And having won office, he has lead the country into a policy wasteland: in foreign and security affairs, industrial relations, health, education (at all levels), the environment and finally even macro-economic policy. In the process, he has attempted to pervert the processes of government and white-ant the electoral process itself.
This is the record of a cynical reactionary. It is just wrong to say that Rudd promises more of the same – or even worse – and is therefore timid conservative. It is wrong and it is lazy.
Thanks for the tip, ‘ad it 07.
241 – It would be nice to see Rudd accept more scrutiny, but I think that campaign tactic are a far different thing to a general modus operandi.
And your attack, as a blind defender of the man responsible for the crass popularisation of the “doorstop”, a a little disingenuous.
Blindoptimist – what about that sentence though? A highschool kid would have it sent back to them for a rethink.
Bushfire Bill wrote:
I have a hazy memory of Hawke/Keating doing just that in the (I think) 1987
election. Admittedly, that was from government and the “aspirationals” were
yet to be concocted.
Steven Kaye, I’m disappointed he won’t be on Insiders, but he has hardly avoided journos – he’s been on LL, 7:30 Report, AM, PM, Sunday.
Cassidy is being a bit precious I think.
It will be interesting to see how the various opinion columnists frame their words over the coming month.
For the committed coalition partisans (eg Devines, Pearson C, Shanahan, etc) the worst ALP leader is always the incumbent. So while Beazley was leader, numerous column inches were devoted to explaining why he would be a disaster for the country. Suddenly, Beazley was altogether better than Crean, who would be a disaster for the country, and who needed to be replaced by Beazley, or possibly the promising Latham.
Latham, upon coming to the leadership, would be a disaster for the country and was a much worse choice than Beazley (although Crean, to be fair, didn’t tend to get any support once vanquished).
Suddenly, with Beazley back in the fold, it was clear again that he would be a disaster for the country. There was no way Australians would vote for a two time loser and he would need to be replaced. Rudd looks like an option.
Now, of course, it is Rudd who will be a disaster for the country, and very definitely a worse option than the principled Beazley or the committed Latham.
See Steven Kaye’s trolling above. The lesson is: the worst possible opposition leader is always the incumbent, and he (or she) must be attacked an vilified at every opportunity.
But, one week later, perhaps, a different story may emerge. Far from being the most disastrous option for the ALP, Rudd’s success will be explained as a result of being very much John Howard: the me-tooism, Howard lite, mini-me, etc.
(Never mind that this is an implied criticism of JWH.)
Anyway, the cricket’s back on.
Grog, thanks for the link to the Michelle Grattan article. The best line in it – “But there’s more than one way to skin a [departmental] secretary” Tee hee. I have visions of all of these hapless Canberra mandarins ….peeled.
I reckon that the public service will be heaving a sigh of relief that Kevvie is coming in. He understands bureaucrats. Even Defence, I reckon, will be relieved.
Derek and Pancho – I loathe Michael Gawenda’s style of writing. Maundering, pointless, impressionistic (lazy) drivel. When he was in the US being editor-at-large (a boot upstairs if I ever saw one), I used to search out Tony Walker’s articles on the US in preference. He is past it and should be pensioned off.
Phew, got that off my chest.
Best journalistic performances this election – George Megalogenis, Laura Tingle, Peter (’deadly intent’) Hartcher. Sadly, I cannot really award any prizes to our ABC. I think they have been so pummelled by the Rehame (I think it was them) monitoring and the constant attacks by the LNP and the new Board members that they have been pulling their punches.
241 Steven Kaye – big deal. Any more pearls for us? The average person wouldn’t know what a “Meet the Press” or an “Insiders” was.
Sportsbet now has the LNP at $4.00 – two hours ago they were $3.50…
Pancho @ 247
Yeah, wot that mean? However, I think I have an explanation … Michael had a few drops of red … fell into nostalgia for Hunter S. Thompson … hit the keys … delivered words on time … young sub, bang, bingo! … on the street …
It’s really entertaining having people like Ave it 07 on this blog, his or her short brainless rhymes are always good for a laugh. They remind me of Tabitha’s literary efforts.
I wonder if Ave it 07 and Tabitha are twins?
Perhaps Ave it 07 and Tabitha can provide commentary updates on election night such as:
In Bennelong it looks like a 6% swing to McKew
But fear not … with postals counted Howard will get through!
Grog 237
Best post of the week!
This comes straight from the Liberal Heartland…and there is more where that came from…lol
Speaking of Simon Crean, he has scored well in the MSM about the A-G’s report. I’ve always thought Simon has been undervalued, he made some important reforms to Labor in his time as leader. He should make an very effective cabinet member as despite his rather wooden media persona, he has a lot of substance and is nodoby’s fool.
I can’t take credit for it John Hunt!
The Bolt blog, is always good for a laugh. Ackerman’s on the other hand is just a bit too scary for me.
Grog, hAckerman doesn’t scare me (he’s a poltroon) but some of his blog respondents do – I imagine them stroking their private arsenals – brrrrr!!!
Stunning move on the betting markets today. I don’t think there is too much inside info driving – the newspoll in the marginal of 53/47 shows a swing of 7% in the marginals – on a healthy sample of nearly 4000.
The main theory supporting “the libs can still win” idea is that they can limit the swing in the marginal and whether a bigger swing in the safe seats.
The newspoll suggest they have outright failed to do this. Maybe the marginal rew travelling 1% better than the national swing.
The libs winning scenario requres a big move ove the next week and, given they are currently going backwards – its unlikely.
There is a scenario at the other end of things that is diabolical for the libs. Thats is ALP gets swings big enough to take most of the first 20 marginal seats and then progresively larger swings in safer lib seats. If this is the case they could end with a bonus 5 or so seats compared to what the pendulum would predict.
Again, this is not to be expected, but currently it is more likely than the libs maginot line strategy.
Lid ? @ 251
Ta. So it’s not just me being bitter and twisted. The editor-at-large thing worries me. Senior journos – also P. Kelly – rattling around in the US being briefed by god knows … then dashing of a slab of stuff to keep ‘em happy back home … seems a bit spooky to me … keep ‘em in the office, under watch, I say …
Those latest betting odds basically give an 80% chance of Labor victory – expect it to continue to rise this week!
wysiwyg – yep – I was thinking about the responses as well.
Albert F, snap, my thoughts too. The betmeisters have probably been moved more by the marginals newspoll than anything else, either directly, or indirectly by bets laid. Pity we (apparently) have to wait till Monday for the raw numbers, but it’s yet another myth destroyed; nothing can save the rodent now.
I used to be nervous, but now I’m relaxed and comfortable
thanks to this blog, especially the expert comments by Possum et al (not to mention the betting markets).
John Howard the master of pork at the SMH:
Decoded: “sure we’ve been corrupt, but hey! who isn’t?”
Grog @ 237 quotes (negatively I hasten to add) the nong on Bolts blog who said that:
“However, all the online polls that I can find seem to tell a different story.
Courier Mail-Brisbane– Liberal/National 54%, Labor 36%, Greens 5%.. (7399 votes)
West Australian-Perth– Liberal/National 55%, Labor 38%.. “
I tried an earlier incarnation of one of the Courier Mail ones on the night it commenced. I was a little surprised when about 18,000 votes were strangely registered between 1AM and 5AM on its first morning of operation (almost all for the coalition). I wasn’t at all surprised, though, when I found that it was possible to vote, and vote, and vote again, as many times as one liked with a simple back and forward shuffling in one’s web browser.
“Howard brands Rudd a con artist”
Isn’t that a bit of the “the pot calling the kettle black”
Howard’s desperation is hitting new heights.
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2007/11/17/Howard_brands_Rudd_a_con_artist
The Prime Minister has branded Kevin Rudd a con artist for claiming he’s an economic conservative as more polling shows Labor on track for a comfortable win.
The Prime Minister has travelled to the Sydney seat of Greenway which the Liberals hold by a large margin.
Newspoll research of marginal seats shows Labor ahead by eight points, but the Prime Minister has thrown the argument onto which party can better handle the economy.
“Mr Rudd is attempting a giant confidence trick on the Australian people about economic responsibility.”
Kevin Rudd is spending today at an Adelaide meeting voters at a shopping centre.
My 6yo is in the other room listening to a Hi-5 DVD at the moment. The song that they are singing is called “Santa Claus isn’t very far away”. It dawned on me that in fact, he will be arriving in a little more than a weeks time
The other thing driving the betting markets is the simple matter of time decay.
In the last campain the libs had a simple message which they stayed on right the way through the campain. They also had few areas on which they could be attacked. This time round the message has been confused and, at times, comically dilivered. The only consistant theme is the 70% unions which has a limited reach.
What will they do? – will they fabricate something about Rudd? Even that would be a high risk move given the cynicism of the electrate.
I think they have 72 hours at best to get a narrative going that they can run to the election with – aint heard it yet.
128
Bushfire Bill Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 10:56 am
“We still haven’t had any reaction to Rudd’s speech apart from the pundits’, and they’re not reliable. As far as I can see there hasn’t been a formal poll yet that completely covers the two speeches – Rudd’s and Howard’s – plus a day or so for impressions to digest. The first poll to fulfill these criteria will be Newspoll.”
…
I think the parties’ tracking polls would pick up any reaction to Howard’s and Rudd’s policy speeches. The results can’t be too good for Howard. He has dropped all reference to his promises on both housing and education, and has tried homing in the “economic management” theme, while Rudd has hammered on four things: school computers, economic management, abbott/workchoices and the auditor’s report/corruption story. The Liberals are just being over-run. I think you will find that Rudd had by far the better reaction, to the extent that anyone pays any attention to them anyway.
Rod, you would probably need to clear your cache, or delete cookies or something similar to spam a poll like that. Poor fools spending their time on this garbage instead of doing something useful. Hopefully their lack of success will get the true believers of a marketing society to have a bit of a rethink of their ideology and tactics. I’m not holding my breath though.
Is it possible for Labor to win a Sky News Poll? I remember the Health debate where Abbott showed up half an hour late and was rude. Poll result? Abbot won the debate. Piss off! What’s next – is John Howard a liar? 32% say yes 68% say no. You can’t trust any poll where they ask their viewers to vote. I mean look at A Current Affair poll votes. Who would you like to see as PM? 85% would say Howard.
Criticizing Rudd for not going on certain shows? I don’t remember John Howard on either “Meet the Press” or “Insiders” for this election.
Rod, JWH might think “cookie” is the short order chef, but the young libs to their credit do know better … strangely enough the GG online polls seem to be harder to crack than most …
Pi, he’s been on Insiders. Don’t know about Meet the Press – he probably can’t stand being so close to that freak Bongiorno.
Im still tipping the coalition by 5 seats. The latest Newspoll looks shocking for the government but I predict after the election Newspoll’s credibility will be put under scrutiny. I think the High profile of some of the sitting members in those marginals will be enough for them to hang on.
Steven Kaye, so how do you rate the caretaker PM’s chances with 6 days to go? Honesty now, please …
LATEST ODDS ON CENTREBET
Odds have shortened for the favourites in most seats across the country. The latest betting odds is predicting the following wins:-
WA – ALP (6) LNP (9)
SA – ALP (6) LNP (5)
NSW – ALP (27) LNP (20) IND (1)
VIC – ALP (20) LNP (16) IND (1)
TAS – ALP (5) ***Even a 5-zip clean sweep to ALP is only paying $1.30
QLD – ALP (11) LNP (17) IND (1)
TOTAL COUNT – 149 SEATS (Must have missed one or no betting odds)
Will assume the missing seat is ALP, and if the punters are right, this gives a total count of ALP (80) LNP (67) IND (3) – A 20 seat swing to ALP or 53.3% of the 2PP Vote. Not sure I agree with many of the posters on this site predicting that the ALP will 90 something seats (Unless the punters are mostly wealthy Liberals) as there are only a handful of ‘tight’ seats on the betting market (Favourite in brackets), these are:-
NSW – Robertson (ALP)
VIC – Corangamite (LNP), La Trobe (ALP), McMillan (LNP)
QLD – Bowman (ALP), Petrie (LNP)]
WA – Stirling (LNP)
SA – Sturt (LNP)
Ironic that the ALP is polling so badly in QLD, given the next cabinet will have several key ministers whose home state is QLD. So much for patriotism you ungrateful Queenslanders!. Maybe that’s why Kev is in SA trying to secure Sturt.
Freeman, put your money where your mouth is then. Centrebet is offering 4.60 for the Cooalition.
Freeman, My prediction way back was 80-68-2 and right now I’m embarrased at being such a wuss – if it’s less than 90 you can rightly criticise the weak campaign by Labor
Yeah, attractive odds and good returns Freeman. Go hard~!
Pi @ 270
You have probably blocked out Howard’s appearance on Insiders – it is the best thing to restore your mental health.
Since you missed it I can relay that he lied, refused to answer any of the questions, bagged unions, criticised Rudd, played word games, refused to offer any sense of vision for the future & thought that his sorry lot of a spineless front bench had done enough to be given the nod from the Aussie pop.
I can see why you may have missed it – I tend to go to my happy place for the duration
Please someone anywhere in Australia in this forum, hang out in your local shopping centre, and try and get a photo op with johnny in front of a tv crew. And proclaim loudly, but in a friendly jovial manner “Hey Mr Howard, I live a marginal electrate, will you buy me a Plasma?, aw please?.” post this on every forum in the land, this will sink him definately, can you imagine the lead in the night’s 6pm news!!!
Julie @ 266
Yep Julie, Santa has lobbed early and for all all non-believers around Australia, this message – he’s coming to a chimney near you!
Still, must not get ahead of ourselves …
“Well he’s middled that one Andrew Symonds” (6!) – 14 from 5 balls. Another Queenslander seems on track for similar performance…
What does one wear to a Liberal government funeral?
It’s time to feed the trolls again … I’ve spotted two just now (Steven Kaye and Freeman @ 272 and 273)
Rod #265,
I believe that there are programs called “bots”, which do that kind of thing when switched on. What an odd coincidence! However, of course the noble Coalition’s supporters would NEVER stoop to anything that low……
/sarcasm off.
Little Johny.
Dead Man Walking.
peterm #281
Gray of course – Howard’s loomed over our nation like a puffed-up stormcloud for a decade now….
peterm @ 282 – K07 Tshirt, what else?
Well there is not much horse racing going on, so the punter has to find an alternative nag to bet on.
#273
“I think the High profile of some of the sitting members in those marginals will be enough for them to hang on.”
Possibly, but that cuts 2 ways.
They are easily identified as belong to the parties and government that enacted the policies and behaviour which have caused the swing to Labor. They are a visible part of the problem.
I believe many of these sitting high profile members are actively trying to disassociate themselves from their own government [rendering Liberal/National/Howard invisible in their advertising for example] but maybe the horse has already bolted.
Peterm, something festive. Try dusting off last year’s Mardi Gras costume, you know, the one with the sequins?
Re 281,
peterm Says:
For me, my best party dress and I will gladly byob ……
Rudd’s choice to go on Rove is straight numbers, and Cassidy can weep into his beer, but really, who the f%ck does he think he is? Laurie Oakes?
How many Insiders viewers are swingers, or leaning Libs? Let’s be frank, every panel has only one token wingnut from the right, and the other two are, on average, quite sympatico with Labor.
So where’s Rudd going to spend his precious time? Sorry, Barry, he won’t be turning gay for you!
What makes you think I havn’t already taken advantage of those odds?
Freeman, Labor thought the high profile of their marginal seat members would save them in ‘96. Unfortunately for them most people don’t know who their local member is.
#227 Misty
An astute observation!
291 – Nothing really. I was just trying to goad you into improving the odds for anyone with eyesight strong enough to see the very clear, very large writing on the wall. If you have taken up a sucker bet already, good for you!
Time for Liberal voters to take advantage of the betting odds if they are confident of a Coalition victory next week, they could really make a killing especially with Centrebet offering $4.60 for a Coalition win.
peterm @ 281,
A dark finely woven hair shirt from the House of Abbott, black fishnets from Mme Dolly Downer, a pair of $1 billion leather walking shoes a la Rodente, and a pair of plutonium cufflinks from Costello’s “Smirk” range of accessories.
All this campaigning and porking may be a complete waste of time.
“All In The Mind” presented by the thinking man’s crumpet, Natasha Mitchell, on ABC RN reports on research that suggests that our political selves may be hard wired. Audio and transcripts (later) at http://www.abc.net.au/rn/allinthemind/stories/2007/2089172.htm
Insider viewing nos. 100-120 k— catching the converted
Rove viewing nos. ?600-800k — catching the great unwashed
You do the maths.
#249 –
“Steven Kaye, I’m disappointed he won’t be on Insiders, but he has hardly avoided journos – he’s been on LL, 7:30 Report, AM, PM, Sunday.”
Yes, grog, and he’s performed terribly each time. Which is probably his Hawker/Britton masters have ordered Krudd to avoid scrutiny in the final week.
I’ll be wearing my batting apparel, my bat is ready… bearing in mind that I’m apolitical.
Yes Pancho good for me. I stand by my prediction the coalition will hold on. I also predict there will be quite alot of scrutiny into the methods used by the major opinion pollsters after this election. Galaxy I predict is by far the closest the latest National one I think had the Labor Primary at 45 and the Governments at 43.
To all the trolls, and the occasional upfront tory like Steven Kaye – face it, the rodent is dead! And there will be no “long live the new rodent”; instead we will get a PM who will govern for all of us, even the misguided fools on both extremes of the political spectrum. Put aside your tribalism for a moment, and embrace the change. If Rudd is not the cleanskin that he presents as, we can turf him out in 3 years in any case. Go for growth! (of responsibilty, truthfulness, and decorum).
Freeman what are you basing your suspicion that the polls are wrong on?
Isn’t it hysterically funny how the rightwing believe that their Dear Leader is such a demigod that he can do no wrong?
Take the porkfest which he Rodent kicked off with a measely 34 billion. So, instead of getting wedged, the Ruddmeister comes close to matching, but cuts a bit, and goes for some government savings.
Next the Dear Leader tries another flyover with the helicopter dropping money, another 9 billion.
And here’s the funny bit: nealy everyone on this board commented that it was about time Rudd pulled back, Rudd himself flagged that he would not be matching Howard dollar, and that’s what he did.
But the rightwing commentariat then say this was ‘very clever’!
Sweet Jesuuuz, these people are cretins. It wasn’t ‘clever’, it was bleeding obvious!
Howard deserves his Nantucket sleigh ride, along with all his court jesters.
If Galaxy is the most accurate one, that means you think Labor will win with about 82 seats.
Shanahan has really turned full circle:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22771587-5012863,00.html
Kirribilli Removals man:
Nantucket sleigh ride!!! Yes yes yes! Jesters and all!!!
(hubris? what hubris???)
303 – what time are you boys starting on the 25th?
More seriously, and I’ve thrown this out before, when does Howard need to be out of Kirribilli, assuming he loses?
Freeman, so you have already backed Team Coco at the present odds.
You should have waited for friday nights polls. If it’s 56/44 you could get between $11.00 to $21.00 on election morning.
This is getting a bit like watching the Australian cricket team. State Labor has now won 21 elections in a row and now Rudd is going to canter in. Where are we going to find a decent team to play ?
I wonder what sort of food they’ll be serving after the Liberal party’s funeral?
Perhaps Mrs. Howard and Mrs. Costello will be hosting the wake at Kiribilli and serving such delectable morsels as humble pie, crow, just desserts, and sour grapes.
I think i’m going to be sick
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772702-601,00.html?from=mostpop
303 is now 310…
Good point Not So Mad Max. Who the bloody hell watches Insiders except for the political hardheads. Rove Live is more popular and therefore a chance for Rudd to win over some more swinging 20+ year olds.
So terribly that he is headed for a landslide win. I wonder how much bigger the win might be if he actually put in a decent performance?
Amaranthus, Spamaham is travelling in ever-diminishing circles, and we all know where that ends up! He will eventually disappear up his own fundament, thus saving the cost of a funeral.
Mark Vaile just aint a smart man.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093767.htm?section=justin
“Labor leader Kevin Rudd says the latest revelations about Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile and the regional partnerships program are more evidence of the Coalition’s arrogance.”
Imagine the hate mail Shanahan would receive from his devotees if he even acknowledged the Coalition will likely lose. You only need to look at Bolt’s blogs to know how vicious these people get if they feel betrayed. Supposedly you must stay loyal even if, on all objective evidence, it looks like a likely loss. Shooting the messenger as they’d say.
This is why Rudd is appearing on Rove and not Insiders.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772669-11949,00.html
KEVIN Rudd maintains a staggering primary-vote lead of 750,000 among voters aged 18-34, and this group alone could deliver power to Labor next Saturday.
The Coalition has 17 seats in the youth belt with margins of less than 7 per cent. Another eight seats not normally considered marginal are also in play because they carry above-average concentrations of younger voters.
No it doesnt Shows on… it means YOU think they will when you punch 53/47 into some fancy election calculator and it spits out the amount of seats Labor will win.
Look at the marginals. The ALP are unlikely to win, Wentworth, Bennelong, Braddon, Solomon plus the two in WA and they might even lose one in WA. If say the election result ends up being 52/48 to the ALP and the scenario I have mentioned above plays out. Where would that put the ALP seat count?
325 Yessss pk, thank you. my point exactly, and it doesn’t cost a cent.
That’s Gold.
http://i89.photobucket.com/albums/k232/kenalovell/1711_cartoon_gallery__600×362.jpg
apologies if you’ve already seen it but I thought it was funny
326 – Hmm, if I add Queensland, and all the not-any-more-non-marginals…about 90 at a guess.
Freeman,
How did Braddon and Solomon turn into likely Lib retains? Every betting market has Labor comfortably winning both (as well as Hasluck), plus retaining every seat it currently has (in WA and otherwise).
LTEP, let’s face it, Spamaham, Blot, and the Cane Toad (Heinergate Man) do not rely on credibilty otherwise they would not be in business. On the other hand, their certifiability matches their chosen demographic quite well. Stop worrying LTEP, sure Australia has its fair share of scary cretins, but way short of the number needed to affect the righteous victory on 24 Nov!
Swing Lowe… Freeman is just hoping.
It’s a different kind of arrogance really. Imagining your side is so great that they will win regardless of what all other signs are suggesting.
There’s not really any reason to believe that polling companies who have by and large done a good job of predicting at least the primaries up to now are suddenly all wrong.
Freeman
Have a look at:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=7.8&nsw=3.9&vic=3&qld=9.1&wa=5.4&sa=6.4&tas=-2.2&act=-9.5&nt=-0.1&retiringfactor=1.5
Should anwer you question.
Portlandbet have switched in the last couple of hours from Labor $1.30/ Coalition $3.50 to Labor $1.25/ Coalition $3.90.
This Newspoll seems to be a real catalyst for changing punters’ perceptions…
Supposedly Howard is campaigning in Greenway today… which means that the internal polls must be really bad, coz even I had Greenway as an easy Coalition retain…
Do you honestly think that the coalition will win if they only get 47% 2pp?
You’re hilarious.
peteM @ RE: OH&S re lib funerary rites
Gumboots. Gas mask. Gloves. Tongs. (workers are free to choose fish-net stockings or suitable wet-suit or overalls). It would also be advisable to carry a sachet of garlic gloves. It is known that strains of infectious diseases can remain dormant for many years, therefore it is vital that workers DO NOT touch remains. Avoid breathing in vicinity of remains. Wash hands before meals. Treat all remains with extreme CAUTION. If any sign of life is observed, send in the dogs …
Nick X tv ads (two of them)
http://www.youtube.com/nickx4senate
Possum has a great article today. Check it for a look. His music also is ‘The Final Countdown’. Hilarious. More suggestions for an election night mix cd?
I can only assume that I meant ‘check it for a laugh’.
LTEP why is hoping being arrogant? I guess it is because I dont support your side? I have put forward a sound theory even if it doesnt suit the wishes of you bunch of left wing loons.
Please ruawake, don’t confuse Freeman’s state of denial with valid data.
Shows on i think they will get 48 + of the 2pp. We shall see on election night.
Just checked reality for Freeman.
Back on Planet Earth, Labor at Centrebet is favoured to win 20 seats from LNP
WA 2
SA 3
NT 1
TAS 2
QLD 5
VIC 1
NSW 6
And with the papers now having given up on the Rodent, it’s going to be an enjoyable week until that stinking, putrid maggot weaves his last lie on election night when he concedes.
Every Labor supporter here can make a practical contribution to Rudd’s campaign by backing Maxine McHugh in Bennelong.
The odds for Howard in Bennelong are wildly artificial. The Liberal Party has gone to great pains to keep Howard’s odds short.
The reason is obvious – Howard does still retain a lot of personal support in the electorate and if he looked like he was the longshot in Bennelong – not even likely to retain his seat – then this support would diminish and reasons, other than personal liking for Howard, would have to be considered by these voters. For the Liberal Party it is essential, no matter what the cost, to ensure Howard remains a short favourite in Bennelong. If Howard and the Libs are both seen to be no-hopers then it can do nothing but enhance Labor’s chances.
This is an untapped source of possible support for Labor.
Maxine McHugh will win Bennelong. There have been five polls which all have her winning by at least 52/48 2PP and three of these are (!!) Galaxy.
What other seat in the election has had this sort of polling? What other seat with numbers like this are not hot favourites? The Liberal Party is responsible for this counter-intuitive match-fixing.
If all Labor supporters on this board threw $50 on Maxine then the Liberal machine would have to respond. And they know they are backing a loser!
If enough was wagered and McHugh firmed to favourite then the MSM would pick up the story and it would become obvious to all voters that Howard would lose his seat. There would have to be some serious soul-searching for those personal Howard supporters.
I urge all Labor supporters to back McHugh and keep reminding others, in later threads, that this inexpensive tactic can really pay off big time.
‘Back McHugh off the map’
As I speak, the last three hours has brought massive changes in the betting. Of the nine bookies I follow, the Coalition has blown from $3.70 (best odds at 10am) to currently $4.75. Labor has firmed 3 cents.
But Maxine McHugh is still better than 6/4! Get amonst it. Sportingbet gives a free $100 bet for a cash bet of $30. Put $30 on Labor and the free $100 on Maxine.
Forego the slab of VB – you’ll be able to afford Grolsch (and some bubbly) after next Saturday night.
By the way Freeman, your theory is not based on any polling of the past 9 months, or any betting market as things currently stand: http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=445. As a theory, it is up there with Intelligent Design.
Freeman is a typical Liberal…all slogans and no substance. A realistic person would conclude that the Polls are right meaning an easy Labor win.WHEN THIS OCCURS , Liberals like Freeman will go to “auto pilot’ , forget the loss and start criticising Rudd.Labor people being the party of compassion can only feel sad for such unhappy people
Savour these moments.
Anticipation is actually better than the reality, once PM Kevin Rudd takes office.
Seven days. Sniff the air. Feel the frisson of excitement. Close your eyes and sense the shifting Zeitgeist. This is an extraordinary moment in recent political history.
Amid the sound and fury of the final week, move the mood to magnaminity. What in fact has been John Howard’s greatest achievement in 11 years.
I would say: the intervention in East Timor.
@ 335 Swing Lowe Says:
When I heard that about Howard being out here earlier that I plonked my freebie $100 from Sporting bet on Michael Vassili at $3.80. In fact Howard and some other gov’t luminaries have been out and about with Louise previously so the Lib’s mail must be in accord with the whispers one gets from a very tight ALP campaign in Greenway.
Byrce,
How does placing a bet ” make a practical contribution to Rudd’s campaign “? Who cares what the bookies say? Do you really think the bookies control the number of votes Labor will get in Bennelong?
It’s slightly possible that on 24 Nov about 7pm eastern DST (even with Qld polls yet to close) Antony G will give the NSR signal. On the other hand it’s much more likely that the early counts will not quite deliver the coup de gras (with apologies to noted francophone Alexandre-le-downer).
Yes, hang in folks; likely to be a roller-coaster with first NSW/Vic/Tas results a bit less than what the optimists predict; then comes SA with an absolute minimum of 3 seats; then finally Qld the non-DST state says in no uncertain terms: “John? Piss Off!”.
In other words “DON’T PANIC” on the night. Like last time, Bananaland will be the big swing state, but trust me, it will be the other way compared to last time. Everything I hear on the ground (tho I’m not particularly connected) suggests that around 10 seats will switch to Labor this time in Qld.
Fear not, just keep campaigning as if your life depends on it …
Here is a Labor win with 50.3 % of the primary vote:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=7.8&nsw=3.9&vic=3&qld=9.1&wa=5.4&sa=6.4&tas=-2.2&act=-9.5&nt=-0.1&retiringfactor=1.5
Can anyone do better?
Sorry, make that 50.3 % of the TPP
Freeman,
Since when are the ALP unlikely to win Braddon and Solomon?
Freeman 341
Yes there’s lots of left wingers on this site, but what attracts me to this site is not so much the political views, but the intelligence of the understanding and the sharpness of the comments.
If the polls were reversed most of the contributors here would recognise the facts and what they mean.
This site is populated with savvy smart people who understand statistics. The contributors are realists who don’t run away from the situation.
348 Flash-What about the gun buyback?
Good point Diogenes. I suppose it seems so long ago now doesn’t it? More than a decade, but I agree that would top the list.
Does anyone know if any services are providing SMS updates or similar on election night?
I ask because I will be at a function that night (locked in before election date announced) till at least 10PM without a TV or radio. Also my phone is not fancy enough to be able to browse websites such as this one.
Keeping Peter Costello from becoming PM
Amaranthus:
Just what did that achieve? As if there’d be a negative 9 percent swing in the ACT…
Yay I have now boothmapped 100 seats
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/boothmaps1.shtml
Impressive work Adam.
Derek, good get. Gumboots essential for this election
In case you missed it earlier.
I think this sums it up- hillarious and true!
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/screensaver
I’m now off to watch my screensaver for an hour (again).
Stephen Kaye:
Could you please explain for me why your fearless leader declined to have more than one debate with the Opposition Leader? Was it an act of nobility, that he wanted to give some air-time to his comrades? Or was he too brave to stoop to luring the media in to hear his message again under the guise of another “debate”? Or maybe he didn’t want the ratings war to further damage the quality of Australia’s free-to-air television? Which was it?
361 Adam- That is brilliant! How much difference is there between the sizes of votes counted in each booth in an electorate?
Why do my comments keep going into moderation? Does that happen to other people?
Adam,
Amongst psephology afficionados there are enthusiasts, conscientious and committed amateurs, obsessives, even professionals……
and then there’s you.
I look forward to referencing your polling booth data on the 24th.
Good on you Adam. Just 50 to go and then in a week you can start on another 150
Seriously though, your maps are greatly appreciated.
and now for something completely different….. you gotta to feel sorry for the Kiwis. After committing mass suicide over the failure of the All Blacks, now the whole country is banking for the Girl Netball team to beat the Aussie Girls for the World Champ to bring some glory to the Nation.
Flash and Diogenes,
I feel very strange trying to think about Howard’s ‘achievements’ in any positive way, but I would agree that the gun buy-back was a courageous decision, made against his own Conservative voters.
East Timor was just disgusting. He allowed Indonesian forces to brutalise pro-independence elements without constraint for far too long, continued to train and arm the corrupt and brutal Indonesian military the entire time, forced East Timorese refugees to return to dangerous conditions, and then this year basically backed a coup against the elected government there…
Australian toadying to Indonesia under either major party continues to be a disgusting betrayal of millions of people suffering under the Indonesian government.
No you don’t.
Whiskers and tails.
I’ll be working at Highbury South. I’m shocked that it is the most pro-Liberal booth in the whole north end of the Sturt electorate
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/sturtbig.shtml
OK, Bryce #345, you’ve convinced me about a bet on Maxine (and I’m not a betting person, being lousy at it).
I like the idea that Howard Lovers outside Bennelong, if they’re convinced he’ll be beaten by Maxine, may bypass Costello and the Liberal Party and go straight to Labor. I ought to like it. I’ve been trying to get this theory up for months now: a likely loss for Howard in Bennelong will drag a lot of previously Howard Huggers outside Bennelong into Labor’s fold in their own electorates around the country.
Excuse my naiveity, but where do I go to find Sportingbet and what do I do when I’ve found it?
Adam-Actually I wasnt asking about every booth! But are all the booth sizes much the same in general? And your colour spectrum shows an unbelieveably close correlation to income in those suburbs. If the Rodent was really making evryone wealthier, he should be doing better.
Freeman – anyone can make a blind prediction ie without stats or anecdotes or any evidence at all. Hell a two year old can do that. I would put more credence in your opinion if you backed it up with some empirical support rather than just blind faith, hope and bias. Alas, I feel I will be waiting a long time given that such evidence doesn’t exist right now.
If Howard so loves Killibill why doesn’t he simply buy it off the taxpayer at market rate, with the combined value of former home and his super package he might be able to make the purchase.
Flash
Best Policy
GST (keating tried and failed – howard took it to an election and got it done)
Gun reform (oppoutunistic but good policy nevertheless)
Super reforms (give the one to peter)
East Timor (well it was a good try anyway)
Worst
Fiscal policy based on Pork
Human rights stance of Australia pushed back 50 years
Undermining public health, education, the whole concept of a public good
Politiisation of public service, AFP, army (on the list goes)
When you look at it the good policy – its nearly all in the first or second term. Such a pity the ALP couldn’t field a decent leader last election.
There will be an EMRS survey of statewide Tasmanian federal voting intentions broken down by seat printed tomorrow.
Paul K at 350 in ref to 345
The reason reason for the tactic has nothing at all to do with what the bookies think. The bookies have no interest in who wins and gear their book to make 3% to 5% no matter who wins.
You’ve missed my point completely.
This is an exercise in creating a mindset in the wider community that Howard will lose his own seat.
Congrats Adam. A bloody masterpiece and lots of sweat too I should imagine.
Clearly shows the Solomon battleground, one which I’ve heard strongly whispered, is changing colour to yellow/tan as we speak. Thanks bro.
I’ve been reading this blog frequently through the election campaign and it’s provided me with some fantastic insight to the electoral process. Many thanks to William Bowe for providing his great analysis of events, and for trying to moderate some of the right vs left arguments that are never really going to change anyone’s mind.
The one thing that staggers me is a lot of commentary “analysing” the marginal and nation wide statistics and then trying to say that on a seat by seat basis, certain seats will swing less due to high profile candidates, or a poor campaign by the candidate challenging the candidate. Of course the swing will not be completely uniform across all the seats, but assuming that the polls are taken randomly over the population of electoral voters, seats with smaller swings than the national margin will be offset by seats with larger swings. People tend to conveniently ignore that normal distributions go up and down. I am predicting an ALP win, with some seats in the “most marginal” category not falling whereas others throwing up some real surprises (please… Mayo, please).
37 BMW
Would that place then be called… “Rat Hall?”
Well, I placed a $100 bet on Maxine to win Bennelong this morning. $2.85 was too good to pass up. The polling has consistently shown Maxine in front, and as others have noted, the odds for Howard winning were probably artificially inflated by some Howard supporters putting on some big bets – anything to make it look like he won’t lose.
But that just means that if Maxine does get up, then we get a better return for our dollar!
Strange but funny cartoon.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/11/17/hehe/#comments
Yes good call Albert F. The GST is now part of the furniture and pulling it off really defied political gravity. Hard to imagine anything like that getting a run in the current political environment. Maybe if Labor gets a landslide, Rudd will have the confidence to do something groundbreaking next time around.
Flash @ 348
So he could steal their oil & gas? I think you’ll have to try again.
Bushfire, click Join Now.
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com.au/
I’m not touting for Sportingbet. Any bookie will do – but they give $100 free bet for your first cash bet (at least $30).
378 [If Howard so loves Killibill why doesn’t he simply buy it off the taxpayer at market rate, with the combined value of former home and his super package he might be able to make the purchase.]
The taxpayers would never trust him to payup for the agreed amount.
Live commentary from the test match in Canberra:
You really have to wonder about Abbott bowling short and wide outside the off stump, and being regularly dispatched to the boundary by all comers including the drinks waitress – why does the Lib XI captain keep him on?
Perhaps there are some injuries we haven’t heard about yet? There certainly seems to be a dearth in the Lib XI of anyone able to land it on the pitch. It seems now that Vaile was only given one over to allow Abbott to change ends … the problem is, who does Howard have to bowl at tother end?
In any case, the only real question remaining is: will Rudd enforce the follow-on? Will he take the chance of batting again with such an enormous lead, or will he simply say: “over to you?”. As far as I can see, he would be crazy to do anything but require his threadbare opponent to take the field again, and inflict the maximum damage …
Byrce,
Now I know you’re dreaming. Most people in the “wider community” don’t even know you can bet on elections.
Bushfire Bill, go to Sportingbet.com.au and sign up. Then flash your credit card and put a bet on Maxine, her odds are on this page:
http://sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195&l3id=630850&l4id=699045
You then will get a $100 free bet, and you can also whack that on Maxine or elsewhere (but her odds are probably the most enticing of any, anywhere, unless you like Bailey’s chances in North Sydney).
I’m pretty sure you won’t be getting $2.65 for her in another two days.
Since the campaign started I have been looking forward to this coming week immensely.
I expected the Lib’s arrogance would result in their campaign slowly unravelling over the first 5 weeks but it has always been the big “implosion” in the last week that I have been most eagerly awaiting.
Like some of their partisans on here the Libs just can’t accept Rudd could so effectively best them and out outmanoeuvre them on every front so comprehensively. They just can’t accept that Rudd has so emphatically trounced them so they blame the press, journos, polling error, the stars or anything else to avoid facing the reality of it.
But there will be no escaping the reality during this final week as the media moves on from the campaign itself and incessantly postulates about Govt under Rudd and how ALP ministers will enact their policy changes. The Libs like Costello, Minchin, Downer and Abbott et al will not handle it well at all and will absolutely implode with indignation.
This week will be the best of all
Amaranthus,
Try this one, ALP win with 49.9% of the 2PP
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=7.8&nsw=5.1&vic=0.1&qld=2.9&wa=2.2&sa=0.5&tas=2.9&act=0&nt=3.1&retiringfactor=1
When it’s on the nightly news that Howard’s the roughy they will know.
“I’m pretty sure you won’t be getting $2.65 for her in another two days.”
Just one more well-publicised poll showing Maxine in front will probably shift these odd big-time, especially with a poll this close to the election.
348 [What in fact has been John Howard’s greatest achievement in 11 years.]
Moving out next week is the only achievement that I will remember.
Now Haneef’s lawyer is trying to wedge Rudd. I’m sure he’s not going to fall for that one. Calling on Rudd to change migration laws. What a cheek after all the good work he’s done for the cause!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093769.htm
I guarantee that from 25th Nov that Jho never takes another 6am morning walk again
I have said for some time that Rudd will campaign in Bennelong for McHugh in the last week. Might be a little ‘hubristic’, campaigning in the PMs electorate, but I think Rudd can get away with it – and will enjoy every minute.
paul k, with respect, I think you missed the whole point. The betting odds are for Bennelong would be the front page news if Howard was not favoured to win it (as he is not in the opinion polls).
If the money and the polls converged (ah, the ‘narrowing’), then that would be another fatal wound to the already limping and gored rodent.
By the way, my money is on Maxine, and has been since before Mr Stevens stuck rates up.
Those wanting to listen to Sol, Geraldine, Fischer, Gallop and Walsh discuss the latest Newspoll of the marginals can do so below [beware, it will quite depressing for LNP supporters]
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/stories/2007/2093407.htm
Start playing the audio, click on New Hour then go forward to 16 minutes – is where it starts.
I think he will take his morning walk red wombat. But what he will be unable to bear is having a radio earplug in his ear tuned into ABC’s AM programme – since the mention of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will be too hard to stomach.
bryce,
How about you ask the Labor Party what they’d prefer. Their supporters to give money to a bookie or make a small contribution to the party to be used as they feel fit. I bet I know which answer they’ll give you.
If you really want to get rid of JHo contact your local ALP candidate and help out!
“This week will be the best of all”
I look forward to it too. But it also depends on Newspoll. I know it is late in the game but a decent shift back to Howard, even if it is an outlier, might make the media a little less bold in their predictions, and help the government to continue to paper over the cracks in its facade.
On the plus side, such a poll could also make people even more determined to vote Labor, just to make sure that Howard isn’t returned – therefore putting to an end ideas about voting for the Coalition to make sure that Labor don’t get in on a landslide.
Bryce @ 345
I’ll take a bet on Maxine, the sprightly filly. Didn’t know there was a McHugh running? Wot, late entry, wot’s the go? Any form? Has your nag been scratched?
Sorry to be igggonant of betting u know better than me so what now is the best bet cus i put my moneies on and wish it for being … killing .
‘Next Hour’ that should read
I guess you just don’t get it.
bryce,
Guess I don’t. But it’s your money. Waste it any way you want to.
Got to love this, there is a “John Howard Pinata” on e-b@y. Current bid is $405. Who says we don’t have our bats at the ready?
OMG, it’s amazing what a few hours does when you go out and come back and check the betting markets. They’re going crazy. I did read somewhere that at the last election it was on the Monday of the last week that the odds went crazy. It is probably now that people are pouring money in to them, before hand it was most likely insiders.
paul k — No one is “wasting money” with a free bet. You sign up and place a $30 bet on anything… put it on a safe seat if you want to make sure you don’t lose your $30.
But you also get a $100 free bet. If you put it on Maxine, you’ll win $165 if she wins. If Howard wins, you haven’t lost anything (except the accompanying sense of euphoria).
Simon Jackman latest. Bowman has crossed to Labor side.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=445
Let It End, yes, this last week should be very enjoyable. I expect the Lib implosion will be beyond all expectations, with so far the incumbents attacking the Reserve Bank, private banks, the Auditor General? How low will they sink in the last few days, in their abject desperation? Time will tell but I expect they will start to berate the electorate (us) for failing to appreciate what consumate fiscal genii they are … whatever, it’s all no more than death throes. There are humane alternatives but I think T Abbott’s papa-fuhrer’s objections to euthanasia will prevent any sort of easy exit – quite fitting IMHO … the rodent will have a very hard death and I for one propose to look in with no compassion, just a great sense of relief …
Noocat, the change is on because the electorate want a change and Newspoll is only a reflection of what people want so it won’t be any better for the libs.
LOL, current Lib odds, have you EVER seen such odds in a 2 horse race
Lasseters (NT) 4.75
Centrebet (NT) 4.60
Sportsbet (NT) 4.50
CanBet (UK) 4.50
Sports Acumen (ACT) 4.15
Portlandbet (ACT) 3.90
Thanks kina, listening to it now
Interestingly, Howard has moved out to 1.50 on CentreBet bennelong (was previously at 1.43 a week or so ago). At the same time, over at IASBet someone has plonked a large amount of dosh on Howard to bring him from 1.50 into 1.40.
Just checked Adam’s site and the booth I am at is tpp Libs 60+
Better wear a see through plastic rain coat over my “kevin07′ t-shirt so I can just wipe the spit off.
Red wombat: what electorate are you in?
Red wombat – don’t worry about it. A couple of State elections ago I had the pleasure of working on a 69% Liberal 2PP booth which turned into a 53% Liberal 2PP booth…
Can’t image why these booths would be pro-Liberal in Solomon 5,15,7,23, they are the original housing commission areas of Palmerston, though now more developed. I guess people from some of the new subdivisions [many with higher joint family incomes] will using booth 2 & 7. But I imagine some of those light blues might become yellow after the electin – a great many would be turned off by WorkChoices. My area, 6, stong liberal booth
La Trobe
Well I have just gotten back from hearing Kevin Rudd speak this afternoon in the seat of Adelaide. Very packed town hall…we were like sardines! All of the metropolitan candidates were there and each got a massive round of applause when Kevin introduced each of them. I’m pretty sure Nicole Cornes got the biggest applause out of all of them.
Kevin gave an excellent speech. Very inspirational and very energised. He’s even more personable when you see him talk in person. He described how the Liberals have been treating SA as Alexander Downer’s own personal rural estate, which got a laugh from everyone. It was awesome seeing the man in person
Whoo-hoo! Symonds reverse sweep off Murali – good, but nowhere near as effective as Rudd’s reserve sweep off Howard where he said he would not match the $$$ but instead would be fiscally responsible … the tipping point IMHO. From that point on, absolutely no place for a FightBack apart from a Rudd-Vanstone tryst or something equally unbelievable … it’s all over … thank you linesmen, thank you auditor general …
I’ve been put on one of Labor’s best booths in Kooyong, but I think it will still be interesting.
Which would Rudd enjoy more – last day campaigning in Bennelong or Mayo?
Just returned from Kevin Rudd’s SA launch. Enthusiastic crowd crammed into Prospect Town Hall. Biggest cheer for his promise to dump Work Choices. Most popular candidate by audience acclamation was the comely Mrs Cornes.
Rod Sawford, retiring member for Port Adelaide, is still fearful Labor will fall two seats short. His inherited and infallible system for picking election winners is based on inflation, interest rates and unemployment. He does allow himself an escape clause – changed methods of measuring inflation may mean that Labor can scrape home.
Will, I’m on a Moreton booth that went to Labor even under Lathham… hey, I didn’t ask for any easy gig! But I’ll take it any time …
@ 406 red wombat Says:
Better still – to ensure that the LNP is sent to the opposition benches and the ALP is kept honest, contact you local Greens candidate and work for them.
The most predictable outcome will be that Rudd will spend his last day campaigning in Queensland to emphasise that he’s for Queensland.
423 hey kina relax, need to factor in the “grunt” vote in thos booths. Not all “grunts” live in Robertson. Free family Medical/Dental to ADF families is going down well, like a nice cool NT Stubbie.
427@Will From Kooyong
Which one?
Auburn North, near Auburn Road and Rathmines. They’ve put me on for 2 hrs.
428 Kina,
I suspect he will spend the last day in Bennelong
…. it is one place he MUST go and he hasn’t been there yet 
….. then hop on into Brisbane before the night is out and Saturday of course in his electorate.
Kirribilli @ 393
Ta for that info, but it still worries me putting my credit-card details up on the net. Old fashioned, but how secure is this stuff? I’d love to put a bet on Maxine, but …
I thinking going to Bennelong on the last day would reek too much of hubris.
Well, I’ve gone from a naive Sportingbet person to a cynical one.
First, if you want to use a Citibank, Diners, Amex or a couple of others I’ve forgotten, don’t bother: none of these organisations like their cards to be used for betting and your transaction will be declined.
Second, make sure the card you DO use has a clear CCV number. Mine didn’t (I’ve had the physical card since 2005 in my back pocket, accumulating sweaty obscurity all that time).
I ended up using one of my accounts and some process whereby money can be transferred out of your account instantly i.e. NOT THE USUAL TWO WORKING DAYS… NOW do youse see why I’m getting cynical? If Sporting Bet can do it, WHY CAN’T I DO IT?
Lastly, call this Bushfire’s Revenge… my $30 cash remains intact, but I used my free bet of $100 to bet on Maxine. Someone above said you have to bet the $30 as well. This does not appear to be the case as the bet on Maxine has registered as a proper, valid bet.
Don’t ever ask me to do this again Bryce. Too much stress.
“LOL, current Lib odds, have you EVER seen such odds in a 2 horse race”
Out of curiosity, what were the odds in the 2004 election?
LTEP, no no no no! The most predictable outcome is a shellacking by Lab over Lib
428 Kina, wouldn’t be surprised if he goes to Perth, just to shore up what is allegedly the worst state for him. When he told Howard that he was going to mess with his head, he meant for the whole campaign not just the first few minutes.
I think you will find that this week a lot of voters will decide it is better to have a Government member than a member of a defeated rabble protecting the voter’s interests.
Sorry if I’m not adding properly on my fingers here but is there are credible scenario where WA seats are needed? Do I phone the relatives in Cowan and try a subtle conversion to Kev?
You have to cycle the $30 before withdrawing anything you win from your $100 freebets (and you need to cycle anything you win via the $100 freebets)
Did Antony really say this?
“Every poll shows the Prime Minister will lose,” says ABC election analyst Antony Green. “Maxine McKew will win it on the primary vote. If the country doesn’t want Mr Howard as prime minister why would the people of Bennelong want him as the sitting member?”
Noocat @ 440,
The odds in 2004 hovered around Lib $1.25/ Lab $4.00 (on Centrebet). However, on the last day, Labor blew out to $6, whilst the Libs fell to $1.10. I’m guessing that’s the handshake effect, but I also think it’s due to the fact that people get more certain of the result the closer the election becomes and the returns become more attractive (on an annualised basis).
The old man has been forced to increase his media presence. Apparently journos have been annoyed that Howard has only being doing one media event a day, while Rudd has been doing more. I wonder if he was hiding because he didn’t want to look worn out and give him a bad look in the media, or perhaps he didn’t want to slip up and have it caught on tape (like Abbot).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093778.htm
BB: “Someone above said you have to bet the $30 as well. This does not appear to be the case as the bet on Maxine has registered as a proper, valid bet.”
You don’t need to spend the $30 in order to get the $100 free bet.
But you do need place a $30 bet on something before you can *withdraw* your $30.
If you’re concerned about losing $30, bet on the ALP in the seat of Chisholm in Vic… you’ll get pathetic odds of 1.01, but there’s no way you’re going to lose.
Diogenes do you have a source for that quote?
Red wombat @406, not just volunteer to help out. Have a Labor poster on the front lawn.
Yes a lot of those soldiers will be voting in those two booths also in my area the delfin developement had quite a number of houses built for soldier and families.
Rudd promising free medical for soldier families might help them change over. AND I wonder if they are getting sick of Iraq?
GS just vote early and often to ensure that the Cowans know they don’t matter … believe me it’s tough even being in non-DST Qld when we know out 8-10 seats may not even be needed when our polls close … nevertheless we will deliver
Thanks Swing Lowe. Will be interesting to see if the coalition get beyond $6 by the end of the week then.
“You have to cycle the $30 before withdrawing anything you win from your $100 freebets (and you need to cycle anything you win via the $100 freebets)”
Correct on the first point, but not on the second I think. You get to keep your free bet winnings and don’t have to rebet them.
449 Not the other Tim- Yes I do but there is just no f*cking way he would say it! If it was true, he’s arguing that every time there is a change of Govt the PM would lose his seat!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/its-bennelong-time-since-a-pm-was-rolled/2007/11/16/1194766965904.html?s_cid=rss_national
BB,
If you really want to play the betting game..
Until recently you could draw on your credit card to have money in your betting account with the betting agency(without a transaction fee) which was treated as a transaction with Visa,Mastercard etc. Then you decide not to bet and instead pay the money back into your bank account (betting companies did this to avoid fraud).
2 bonuses:
1) You accumulate points on your credit card ( I got about $1500 in free vouchers for David Jones doing this)
2) You get extra cash in your bank account without having to do a cash withdrawal from your credit card
One trick – dont draw a big amount from your credit card at once – the banks do get suspicious of fraud. Because most of the betting agencies now have a surcharge its not as lucrative too but I think you will find a surcharge of 1.5% or less is still free money WITHOUT RISK.
See Comrades any system of laws has a loophole. Think of me as a free POLLBLUDGER community service.
EStJ
453 By the end of this week it will probably be think of a number between ten and one hundred and write your own ticket. Enough people believe in the narrowing to turn sucker money into bookie’s profit. Me, I’m still waiting for the budget bounce from these great economic managers.
Nope, my girlfriend won $ on the melbourne cup with freebets and you cannot withdraw your winnings right away. You need to re-bet them. If you win a bomb, and want to withdraw it, you could split your bet on each team in a sporting contest which doesn’t have the option of a draw (like basketball) and guarantee only a small loss.
Thank you Drew, that *was* a snorter – pitched up on the offstump by the A-G, a flash and a miss by Vaile but he was nowhere near it … Rudd has now brought Tanner into leg slip … it seems only a matter of time now
“If it was true, he’s arguing that every time there is a change of Govt the PM would lose his seat!”
That’s ignoring the fact that it is very rare to have a PM sitting on such a tight margin, with a capable opponent.
I think Antony’s point is quite reasonable.
With my $30, I put $15 on North Sydney (was paying $7 for Bailey, but yeah, I know, a real gamble) and then $15 on Labor to win the election. That means I would only lose $11 if Labor win, Howard still wins his seat, and Hockey also pulls through. I’m happy to lose $11 for a new government, but if Labor does win, I reckon there is a VERY good chance that Howard will also lose his seat.
456 ESJ, you’re a true ‘Insider’ from the old school ,so to speak, aren’t you? Love your work.
The voters of Bennelong will not want to be a national joke by electing a dead-duck Prime Minister. In the course of the last week, the conversation in Bennelong will be about doing the only smart thing – going with a candidate that represents the future. I would say a bet on Maxine McKew right now is fantastic odds.
ESJ I would rather think of you as a failed GG blogger – unless you turn out to be Jack the Insider, which I very much doubt as he casts his anchor so much shorter than yours, which resides so well in the sands of unreality …
300 Red wombat – The rodent will probably be too busy wedging his cornflakes with his toast as a surrogate for the real thing.
When Kevin Rudd was elected Labor leader he appeared on television. My wife said “I wonder if the Libs are watching, they should be worried ” As the family knows she is never wrong. The arrogance of Howard did not allow them to see what was obvious right from the moment that he became leader of the libs. I was impressed and I can assure people that I am not easy to impress.I think that Rudd has the potential to be a great PM .
Not Tim said
“It was awesome seeing the man in person”
Thats the other shift in the last week. I think previously there was a lot of support for “not howard” now its has clearly shifted to “we want Rudd” (and who is that old guy twitching over there).
Rudd has done the political equalivant of running 10 marathons back to back in order to rid this country of the rodent. All the way he has faced a hugely resourced opponent in complete control of the legislative apparatus and with no moral issues with spending public money for its own gain.
Be proud to vote ALP next weekend.
I’ll just say I’ll be very surprised if Maxine wins Bennelong on primaries alone. I don’t know whether Antony really said that, particularly given his aversion to making predictions.
“Me, I’m still waiting for the budget bounce from these great economic managers.”
Well, you’re ahead of me. I’m still waiting for the much anticipated Brian Burke bounce. You know, the one that will end Rudd’s honeymoon once and for all. I’m sure Shanahan has an explanation for the delay…
I don’t recall Keating getting voted out when the country threw the Labor Govt out in 1996. But it would be interesting if someone could tell us what the swing against him was. If the Rodent lost his seat, I think my life would have peaked and I’d start believing in God again.
I’ve been on the hustings for most of today in Warringah – Rattus Rattus and The Mad Monk are both on the nose. And Labor is a great international brand name. The Mad Monk had another debate today, I wonder if they confiscated mobile phones. It’s going to interesting to hear what he buggers up this time.
Thank you Steve, one does try to eek out a living in the ruins of Berlin.
Whatsinamewyg – Love that penis size metaphor!
469 – so much for the Australian’s much quoted ‘master class’ lessons from our great treasurer. Master ass might be more apt.
“Nope, my girlfriend won $ on the melbourne cup with freebets and you cannot withdraw your winnings right away. You need to re-bet them.”
Hmmm. The sportingbet freebet conditions are:
# Prior to any withdrawal, both the initial deposit and any bonus funds accrued via free bets must be turned over at least once (1x).
# Free bets may be placed on any Sports market available at the time of placement, however only one free bet (from any promotion) can be used per event or match.
# For winning free bets, winnings will be paid excluding the initial free bet stake. This means that if the free bet is placed on a selection paying $2.15, the net winnings paid will be $115, (i.e. $215 less the $100 free bet).
It is slightly ambiguous, but the first point is saying that you can’t just withdraw your $100 free bet without using it to bet with first. It doesn’t say you have to turn it over twice. I think they would say “winnings accrued via free bets must be turned over” if that’s what they meant. I don’t think “bonus funds” means ‘winnings’, I think it means your bonus free bet money.
Someone was on here the other day saying their brother (or son?) worked at sportingbet and confirmed that this was the case.
“The arrogance of Howard did not allow them to see what was obvious right from the moment that he [Rudd] became leader of the libs.”
I remember Howard saying at the time that Rudd would probably have a honeymoon in the polls for about a month or so, and then it would be back to normal business.
And then after a few weeks, he said that only if the honeymoon continued until March would there be reason for the government to start worrying.
Eight months later, and it’s all damage control and panic. Howard seriously underestimated Rudd right from the very start. He also underestimated public’s reaction to WorkChoices, another big mistake.
“I’ll just say I’ll be very surprised if Maxine wins Bennelong on primaries alone.”
I think he meant she will beat Howard because she will be ahead on primaries, not that she will get over 50% primaries. I think she’ll be very close or ahead on primaries, and will therefore win.
Ashley, I can 100% confirm that I am correct and whoever the “son” was who told you otherwise is wrong. Here is the text (with personal details removed) of the email they sent my girlfriend saying she couldn’t withdraw the winnings:
“Terms and conditions attached to the $100 free bet as found in Sportingbet Australia Rules:
Prior to any withdrawal, both the $30 minimum deposit and $2310 bonus funds accrued via Free Bets must be turned over at least once (1x).
To see the full terms and conditions attached to the free bet offer go to INFO > Promotions > click on the $100 free bet TERMS and CONDTIONS.
Your request for payment has been cancelled and the funds returned to your Sportingbet Account to complete you turn over requirement.”
So what do you all think of the new blog on the Australian anyway?
Can’t believe that from 11am this morning to 4:30pm the LNP’s odds on Sportsbet have gone from $3.50 to $4.50.
Could it be that today was the day the ALP supporters decided to stop being nervous?
Diogenes: Keating was in a very safe Labor seat, and even with the bats there was no way they would have thrown him out in that election. Howard is now in a marginal seat. Thing is, Maxine wouldn’t win it on primaries, because the area is still quite conservative, if she wins it will be a close contest and we might know about the final result for a week or two.
More money seems to be going on to Maxine – she is now at 2.35 – Howard 1.52 on centrebet
Albert F I will be so proud to vote Labor, that I (an impartial volunteer, not a party member) will also work a booth and hand out how-to-vote cards for them, for most of the day … I’m not a hater, but I’m also not a stupido, and can see what this rotten gov has done (the MSM reckons they have done well, but somehow miss the complicity in over 500,000 iraqis dead – duh!; not to mention AWB, indigines, climate change, education, health care, etc. etc. etc.).
Personally, what I what *really* like to see would be some royal commissions into some of the more criminal behaviour of the previous government … the names Downer and Andrews spring to mind, but I realistically expect that the political class will move ranks to protect their ain troo fascicistas …
Which new blog EsJ? Jack the Insider??
BV — Well, they’re pretty tricky little b*stards then aren’t they? As you say though, you can just lay off on two different outcomes in a two horse race and cop a 4-5% loss for the guarantee of keeping 95% of those winnings.
BTW, that’s a pretty damn fine effort to win $2310 off a $100 free bet. Nice work!
Would you vote for your sitting member (PM) knowing there was a very good chance you would be coming back for a by-election in a couple of months?
I reckon the bookies will be extremely jumpy right now. They must be on their toes. Money is going to absolutely pour in for Labor – both nationally and in individual seats, and if the bookies are not careful they could get burnt badly. Just how much will Labor shorten?
My prediction: $1.07 on the national vote, which is unprecedented in a 2-horse race.
Adam:
Excellent work!
Misty:
Well said.
I’d prefer to be a compassionate European than a competitive American any day.
Reform with a safety net, as PK once said.
I have this feeling JWH is channeling Kim Campbell in her wonderful Canadian campaign for the Progressive(?)Conservatives and can vividly remember The Economist’s photo of her giving the victory signal after voting, with the caption “Guess how many seats we won? “
Nae Grog, I thought Jack the Insider may be ESJ on Jack’s first outing, but since then have realised JTI has far too much wit to be ESJ …
Cheers Ashley – she’s a lucky one. $100 on the nose. Who said ALP supporters aren’t into Efficiency?!
Howard is a dickhead with an IQ of barely 110 at best. The only reason he has survived so long is that fully half the population is even more stoopid than him.
So why should he win now? What works the other way, is more and more young kids with their wits about them, registering to vote… if I was 18yo, I would not even consider, there would only be one option (I say that as a 52yo so if any youngsters disagree, tell me now!)
Rudd faces up, Howard fielding at silly mid-on has forgotten his helmet and box…Rudd steps back, full blooded pull shot…. oh … the humanity!
wysiwig
iq of 100 is average IQ..so Howard has above average IQ? prolly Rudds would be higher? maybe
492 Blacklight have you watched the DVD yet? I’m in a marginal seat and mine hasn’t arrived yet.
Kina, Howard don’t need no box … As the great Blind Lemon Jefferson’s mama said to him back in 1927, “Poppa you don’t need no momma no how”. Work it out
Janette only expects “companionship” at this time of life LOL
Howard is out to 1.52 in Bennelong at CentreBet… was 1.42 last week.
Oops, 481 already said it.
dvd is just what wasd on the abc party political 10min speel..on a loop
What were the adverts like that McHarg had in the SMH and Bennelong local rag bagging Jho?
Sorry to be rude, but bugger what the Western Australians do. I’m sitting here comparing the poll results of Nielsen in this morning’s Herald, and Newspoll in this morning’s Oz, and despite certain differences in how and where each survey was conducted, they both look remarkably similar.
They tell me that WA’s result won’t matter a jot, because NSW will bring in at least six seats for Kev, (I can’t quite believe the potential 10 that both polls nominate), Victoria four, and then the fine people of Bananaland will finish the bastards off once and for all.
Today, I am a potential proud Queenslander for only the second time in my life (the first was December 7, 1989, when I was unfortunately too young to vote). I will become a truly proud Queenslander next Saturday night at about 8.30 Sydney time. By then South Australia will have delivered rout.
I’m dithering between putting a Clare Valley cab sav in the celebration cupboard or ordering in a banana smoothie liberally laced with Bundaberg’s finest. And by that stage, I won’t give an arse what it tastes like.
I know it’s an old pic, but this must be summing up how Howard and the Libs are feeling. http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200711/r200276_766386.jpg
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/John-Howard-Pinata_W0QQitemZ220171750001QQihZ012QQcategoryZ4107QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem#ebayphotohosting
you will need this to make your party complete
.
.
.
For a 52 year old you make some amazingly immature comments. Got anything intelligent to say or just more “dickhead” insults.
Good, strong (and damn true) response to the Charter of Budget “Honesty”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093796.htm?section=justin
Have the betting agencies ever been wrong? Didn’t they have big money on Jeff Kennett winning in 1999, bad odds for Bracks and yet Labor just got in?. The bookies can’t always be right. They have a good track record but they do sometimes misread the electorate.
The caption should read
“Christ! Who the fcuk is going to tell Hyacinth we are moving”
Ashley and DV, this news of sportingbet’s deviousness makes me pretty angry….I probably should’ve read the terms and conditions more closely, but I wasn’t aware that if you won your $100 free bet you only got the winnings, not the $100. That seems kinda fair enough, but the having to turn over your winnings again is even dodgier, I bet they get back 90% of those “$100 free bets” through this system. This means I’m going to have to actually gamble on something, rather than just investing in election results….grrr. I put my $100 free bet on the ALP in Bowman for $1.80, and split my $30 into $10 each on the ALP in Sturt, Robertson and Page. Stupid online gambling.
As we now enter the final stretch of the last week does anyone want to reassess their pre campaign predictions listed here http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Though far more confident now I’ll stick with my ALP 85 seat prediction.
Yeah blacklight no doubt Howie is in the top 50 percentile of IQ, he’s not a complete fool, just a superannuated dickhead. I’m not an elitist like for example the Cafe Societe Gai de Melbourne members of this blog, but I would imagine that even including the resident trolls we would make the top 5 percentile, which is no big deal unless you happen to hang out with stoops… in which case you would be entitled to feel superior, but lacking in taste
5-542 – go SL! go Libs! nice try … too bad …
Luke, name another election where the bookies got it wrong. One instance out of many only shows that this time they are very very likely to be correct this time surely.
Does anyone get to do an inspection of Kiribilli to see if the Howard’s can keep their bond money?
Phil Robins, I was also at the launch at Prospect town hall this afternoon, sitting just behind Rod Sawford and Gordon Bilney. Nice event, and very impressed with Rudd, and also rated Penny Wong’s speech quite highly.
I need a beer now though, very hot and stuffy with all those people crammed in !
Let It End @ 506, I posted on Poss’ blog that I was confident on 87 seats to Labor. Happy to be included in your prediction too if not too late.
Sorry if this is off topic and rehashing gripes earlier expressed but……..Vaile is a thick-necked hick who is only sorry his mismanagement has been exposed by the ANAO for all to see. Good to see Mega-George at the GG had a field day with it. Shanners shouldn’t share the same lift at work with that man.
“Eddy Shrugged” is a minor masterpiece by libertarian Historian-with-a-heart, Edward St. John. Now available at all good online bookstores.
Howard tries to pick up his workrate.
With one week left in the federal election campaign, Prime Minister John Howard has ramped up his media commitments – but not without some prodding.
Mr Howard has been accused of running a slow-paced campaign – often having just one media event a day, compared to a handful attended by Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093778.htm
I hope there is scene next Saturday night (like in the movie Dracula) where the peasants storm Kirribilli House carrying lit torches and pitchforks to remove the squatters!
Oh and btw I know I can lay off my winnings by splitting them in such a way that I’ll only make a small loss in a two horse race, so I spose
I don’t have to gamble. Still makes me angry though. Also, Red Wombat, what are you doing whingeing about being in a 60% Liberal booth in LaTrobe, for crying out loud. We are talking about the same LaTrobe, I hope, the one in Victoria that’s been the most volatile in the betting markets over the last week, where the bookies now tip Labor to win? Your strong Liberal booth is going to be where the swing happens and the seat is won or lost, cos people who voted Labor last time don’t have much to contribute to swings towards Labor you’ll find…get excited!
My local booth in Thornleigh(Sydney’s North Shore) voted in 2004:
59 Libs
41 ALP
I’m hoping Labor can improve a few more points this time.
George @ 512
It’s actually Bluebottle’s list I believe so he is the only one that can update it.
Oops sorry Let It End @ 519
Crikey noted that
‘According to the ANU’s Australian Electoral Survey, in 2004 9.6% of voters decided how they would cast their ballots in the first few weeks of the campaign. Some 14.2% decided “a few days before election day” and 8.6% on election day itself – almost a quarter of the entire electorate’.
As has been discussed endlessly it seems that the late deciders tend not to shift too much from the party they have been tending towards.
But you have to be open to the unlikely possibility that the late deciders might break towards Howard.
And Latham’s point today in the AFR is also good, that the responses in the polls in recent years are being biassed because people know their answers feed into the news. So the opinion polls reflect an element of sending a signal, which is also what we do in by-elections. Whereas on the day of the real election we are (generally) in deadly earnest. For this election I suspect the polls are almost entirely reflecting deadly intent, which is good news for Labor, but there is the possibility there is/was quite a large amount of flirtation with Labor, which Howard if he was skillful enough could shift. Still too late, I think.
Let It End: I’ll stick with my prediction of 79 seats for Labor.
I’m not feeling as confident as some others about a huge Labor landslide.
“But you have to be open to the unlikely possibility that the late deciders might break towards Howard.”
Hogwash.
Have to love this slice of memory from Crikey – an embarassment for Howard.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/docs/Lib-Party-climate-change-policy-in-1990-acce9fd5-1d2d-41c5-a04f-e79bcfc55928.pdf
Mad Cow, this is for you.
Latest odds on Patterson:
Coalition: 1.54
ALP: 2.35
It might be worth it if Labor HQ were to put some more resources into Jim Arneman’s campaign.
LIE @ 507 I’m stuck with my paranoid 80-68-2 prediction tho hopefully it will be far more than that! I would still settle for 80 tho 100+ would be welcome too
Howard Hater:”I’m not feeling as confident as some others about a huge Labor landslide.”
O yee of little faith
Nick: “This means I’m going to have to actually gamble on something, rather than just investing in election results….grrr. I put my $100 free bet on the ALP in Bowman for $1.80″
As I alluded to earlier, there’s a way round it. If you win in Bowman, split your winnings and bet on both sides of a one day cricket match (or whatever, so long as there is little possibility of a draw).
eg. pura cup QLD vs VIC
with $80
QLD 1.83: bet $41.5
VIC 1.97: bet $38.5
whoever wins, you will walk away with $72 profit. The $8 missing out of your original $80 is how the bookies make their money.
Guess the Costellos will never get that invite to dinner…
“Have the betting agencies ever been wrong? Didn’t they have big money on Jeff Kennett winning in 1999, bad odds for Bracks and yet Labor just got in?. The bookies can’t always be right. They have a good track record but they do sometimes misread the electorate.”
The bookies might have got this one wrong – don’t know if there was much betting on this one. But the polls thoughout the campain showed the ALP a bit ahead. It was widely assumed this would narrow and disappear on polling day.
Even on election night when Anthony Green’s computer predicted a very small ALP majority early on – no-one thought it would play out.
Lesson: polls are pretty accurate – Anthony’s PC more so.
Paul K where caould I start, or even more where could I stop, in characterising John Howard as a dickhead? Perhaps I could just point to his record, now exposed for all (even the blind) to see?
Bloody amateur bloggers, such as me.It is obvious that I meant to say leader of Labor. Well we all make mistakes but I will be more carefull next Saturday.
Anybody believing the vote is going to suddenly change and not reflect polling should look at all the Nielsen polls 1998 – 2004 to see how the actual result compared to the late polls. No hope there for Howard.
#521
Wasn’t whingeing…..was having a go at humour (obviously I need to go back to comedy school).
I have never offered my services in a political way before but I want to see Howard (Libs) SMASHED, not beaten SMASHED!
I know that La Trobe is winnable that’s why I will be setting up at 4.30am and will be there nearly all day handing out HTV cards.
“Have the betting agencies ever been wrong? Didn’t they have big money on Jeff Kennett winning in 1999, bad odds for Bracks and yet Labor just got in?. The bookies can’t always be right. They have a good track record but they do sometimes misread the electorate.”
They discussed this on the radio today with Sol saying that the marginal polls made sure there was no chance of that happening.
The following may be incorrect but I seem to recall in 1996 Keating suffered a 12-14% swing in Blaxland.
ALP over all suffered a 5%.
On this bases Bennenlong may go to the ALP on Primaries.
A 10 seat Labor majority will do for me! I’m too afraid to dream of anything more.
IASbet.com had Coalition at $3.65 at lunchtime.
Now: $4.50.
Also, ….pre-polled today – locked and loaded – Yeeehah!!!!
Paul K perhaps I should explain myself a bit better – as far as IQ is concerned, I have been saddled with great expectations (by others) since I was 5 yo. At heart I know both that:
- I have a higher IQ than 99.5 percent of the population
- I am a fool
So work it out buddy… if I’m so smart (supposedly) and can see myself without favour or affectation, what do you think I see when I look at a Howard or Vaile? I see, there but for the grace of self-awareness, go I …
I am still confident of my 100 seat prediction, everyone has forgotten to factor in the Bundy, Pineapple and Banana variables.
ruawaka you should know that you can’t keep bananas or pineapples for a week, you have to eat them now … but keep the Bundy for Sat’dy night
On ch 7 news:
* tomorrow’s galaxy showing only a 5.1% swing in Qld marginals.
* but a 7.5%(?) swing in NSW
That would give Labor 10 seats from NSW, but only 2 from QLD.
Nine reporting Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Tele saying ALP will gain 18 seats nationally – 10 in NSW alone, but just two in Qld, three in SA, three NT/Tas, and none in Vic or WA.
Channel Nine just reported a poll to be published tomorrow (Galaxy in the Sunny Terror?) showing seats won or lost in each state.
I was just coming out of the dunny so didn’t get all of it, but I think it said:
NSW – 10
SA – 3
Tas/NT – 3
Qld – 2
WA – none
Didn’t catch what Vic was, and simply cannot believe the Banana vote. Did anyone else see it?
I think you’ve used up your dickhead allowance for today, Wysiwyg.
According to ch9 Melb news tonight, tomorrows Galaxy poll shows that Qld will only deliver 2 seats , 0 in Vic, 0 in WA 3 in Tas and SA and 10 in NSW.
They claim it will be a very narrow win to the ALP.
Any thoughts?
Only a 5% swing in QLD? WTF?
Am I correct that the Morgan marginal seats poll appears in the Sun Herald tomorrow?
coota puppy, will be a lot more in Qld for sure – somewheres between 6 & 16 …
Galaxy also says Howard is in line to lose his seat.
I happened past a campaign stall today and saw a poster of Kevin Rudd.
?is it my imagination or maybe it’s deliberate design but I can’t help notice his increasingly striking resemblance to Yoda.
Perhaps he knows the ways of the Force.
361
Adam Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Yay I have now boothmapped 100 seats
A labour of Sisyphus, no doubt! Now for the nit picks.
You have got the East and West labels for Gippsland the wrong way round. Lakes Entrance has 2 booths this time, as opposed to one last time… I know because I’ve spent a week doing HTV rosters!
Can you spare some of your excess volunteers?
Wheres the latest Galaxy Poll!!!
Come on fella’s… upload it already!
548,
They are wrong wrong wrong
……. NSW and QLD might do it on their own. Don’t know what they were smoking when they said only 2 in QLD 
This contradicts the Newspoll in the marginals which showed QLD with the biggest swings, and NSW with the smallest.
This Galaxy suggests the complete opposite.
But, we don’t know what this actually means until we know what seats they polled. For the Newspoll it was the 18 most marginal government seats, minus Stirling, Hasluck, Bass, Braddon and Solomon.
I don’t believe NSW will deliver 10, but nor do I believe Qld will deliver as little as two and Vic none at all. We’ll have to wait for the details, I guess.
So that’d be the poll with the Greens having a 11% Primary?
Do we expect another ACN this coming week?
So the polls are unanimous then – even the consistently conservative Galaxy. 18 would seem the minimum number of seats Labor will win.
We still have the Morgan poll of marginals to come?
Galaxy already polled in Queensland a month or two ago showing only a modest swing in the Qld marginals. Nothing new there.
Um, did anyone by The Australian today? I’d like to see the raw figures on the marginal seat Newspoll.
It probably won’t appear on The Oz’s website until Sunday night or Monday morning.
Iceberg Helicopter Rental
Just a quick message to all our loyal customers. Due to a planned mass evacuation at the Sofitel Wentworth at 9.45 p.m Sat 24th November – we will have no helicopters available for rental on this date.
Thanking You.
Maybe Galaxy polled Longman and Petrie?
I doubt I will ever buy The Australian again.
I think Galaxy is overstating NSW and understating Queensland personally but I’m only going by what other polls have shown. 4000 is a big ample I must say.
Sorry William, shall obey and be self-controlled from now on … BTW is it allowed to quote the Glugs of Gosh on this blog? Seems apropos all the way from 1914 to 2007 …
“3 in Tas and SA”
Sorry, minimum answer was 4 (3 SA + Bass).
Low cred poll.
I will post a scan of The Australian’s tables shortly.
The betting markets can’t be reacting to the Galaxy poll, there must be something else we’re not seeing that looks bad for the Rodent.
Here comes the narrowing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I dont recall anyone saying the narrowing had to occur a month out. A week willl do just nicely.
Thank God for Galaxy, the first of several pools that show THE COALTION IS CLEARLY IN CONTENTION.
There will be a lot of egg on faces on the 25th (e.g Labor to win 100+ seats, Hah!)
Just what I have been saying.
ShowsOn, I bought the Oz today – it’s you people and all of your constant references to the bloody thing that made me do it. Shame!
What would you like to know?
570 kelly and your evidence to back up this claim would be…?
Not really Lefty E. Polling has been showing Braddon extremely close for the past month or so so it’s not unbelievable that the Libs could be in front. Shows how a shameful act of vote-buying can go down doesn’t it?
We’ll also see in the Tasmanian poll that gets released tomorrow whether Braddon is going to stick with the Libs.
Actually, it said 3 in Tas/NT I think. Plus another 3 in SA.
Given that Galaxy is the most favourable to the coalition this is not a good result for them.
Thanks.
Just ALL the figures for the Newspoll marginal seat poll.
It’s OK, I can wait for William to post a scan.
I guess Rudd will have to spend most of next week in QLD, even in Bonner and Moreton. Damn, I’m worried again!
Adam @ 564 here in Bogansville, like I said, there’s not a treeware alternative to the GG… but I have resisted for 2 weeks now and I (reluctantly) have to agree you’re right – don’t feed the bastards, maybe they will starve …
If Galaxy think that Bonner and Moreton are the only seats that will fall and that Qld will return Libs 53 Lab 47 tpp they have rocks in their heads.
Newpoll has a sample of 3000+ that is the one that means anything.
ruawake, didn’t someone say the Galaxy had a sample of 4000?
There’s a tremendous difference between intelligence and rat cunning.
The seats in Queensland polled by Galaxy will be different from those polled by Newspoll. In this way this poll will actually be very useful to see which seats labor will pick up in the sunshine state and which one’s they will fall short in.
If that is only a 5% swing in the Marginals then a whole bunch of safe seats are going to fall.
You can check the Qld arrgegate polling for the year here and it has a consistent very large swing to Labor.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-16nov.pdf
Kelly gets excited over a poll showing the Libs losing and their leader going south. Each to his/her own I suppose.
So newspoll of marginals released today can therefore just be ignored because a Galaxy poll has also shown the ALP will win?
ruwake I’m in Moreton and it’;s definitely gone. I also have money and effort on Petrie, Ryan, Longman, Bowman, Herbert – can’t say they’ll all go, but I reckon 4/5 will change – the challenge is, which one will the Libs hold of these five?
10 seats in NSW in Galaxy – 59-41 in Vic according to Newspoll. Something is wrong with these figures – they are all over the shop once you drill down from the National.
Yes kina, but we know Lilley is swinging something crazy from the Galaxy poll they did. There’s no reason to believe the swings will be isolated in Labor seats… but I wouldn’t bet the house on huge gains in Qld.
Plus if all the safer seats swung towards Labor but stuck with the Liberals on small margins this might produce an outcome seen in the aggregate. Remember the aggregates have a MoE of around 4%.
Channel 9 said the Galaxy poll interviewed 4000.
yes gerr
rats don’t respond to dog whistles 
ShowsOn, I’ll leave it up to Billy Baggins. He’ll do it better than I can.
For me the interest is the diffs between Newspoll and Nielsen. Nielsen looks better for NSW and Vic but Newspoll better for SA and Qld. In this case, Newspoll looks as if it errs on the side of caution.
Obviously, differences in which seats were sampled comes into play.
For the South Australian fans, Newspoll mentions Mayo. Woo hoo!
we have been wondering why the only outliers are favouring ALP
Gary will continue to deny the narrowing until he cries into his cornflakes on Sunday morning.
Sample of 4000.
Its the trend, you peanut. And a whole week to go.
Wasn’t it Galaxy that predicted the demise of Beattie the week that last year’s state election was called. He went on to win 59 seats out of an 82 seat parliament.
None of these polls have been good news for the coalition. They are only debating the size of a Labor win.
Kelly – a trend with one poll? Get real and stop with the abuse.
If you were a ALP person this poll is a reminder not to rest until 6:00 next Saturday for the Liberals wont give up until 6:00
“If that is only a 5% swing in the Marginals then a whole bunch of safe seats are going to fall.”
Exactly. Galaxy are predicting 18 marginal seats to go across to Labor. But what about the second tier seats with margins of 5 – 10%?
Kelly a trend from one poll is like saying Geelong are on a grandfinal winning streak
No steve, both Newspoll and Galaxy got very close to the 2006 Queensland state result. Both had the ALP primary at 48% and the Coalition at 38%, Newspoll 2PP 55/45 and Galaxy 56.5/44.5.
Galaxy were .7% off in 2004.
Perhaps the most accurate.
If Galaxy says only 18 seats to Labor with a week to go, no wonder this ripple of consternation from Labor hacks.
Can someone explain what the hell is going on with the galaxy poll? And what it means??? What it is?
Signed
Confused
I think the big thing the Newspoll showed is that the swings Labor is getting in seats with margins below 6% is basically the same as the national average swings.
It all depends on what seats they polled. We won’t know until the figures go up late tonight.
kelly Says: “Its the trend, you peanut. And a whole week to go.”
umm, listen here peanut, there is NO TREND when looking at one poll. Buy a book and learn something! Sheesh!
Apart from Wentworth, Deakin, Bennenlong and Stirling are the only seats under 5% that I see the Liberals maybe holding
Big Blind Dave,
yeah but would you back Geelong for next year’s flag. Thought so.
“Galaxy says only 18 seats to Labor with a week to go”
No, it shows only 18 seats out of the marginals. There’s a difference. In every election there are safe seats that fall too.
Kelly settle down, a case of possibilities mixed up with probabilities.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/17/the-final-countdown/
602 kelly – Galaxy are very good at making a poll sound close sometime out from an election and then on the death knell get it just right.
Did Newspoll survey Deakin?
ESJ @ 588, you are straining at gnats, perhaps you should try swallowing a Labor victory now, before the landslisde, which may be even less palatable (unless you happen to be partial to deep throat).
Kelly this Galaxy poll is great news to Labor. All the seats we want in SA, TAS and NT plus heaps in NSW. If its the same seats they polled last time for Queensland then this is nothing to get excited about, It showed the same thing. They polled Bonner, Moreton, Hinkler and Longman from memory. So Hinkler and Longman stay with the coalition but Blair and Herbert, polled by Newspoll fall.
I guess Kelly et. al. you should be grabbing abit of that Liberal money at Centrebet.
ROFL, still searching for a “narrowing” with a trend of 1 eh!
Kelly reminds me of something Disraeli once said: “He was distinguished for ignorance – for he had only one idea and that was wrong.”
Newspoll is a survey of 18 marginal seats. It also extrapolates the swing across those seats to other ‘marginals’ in each state.
So, for NSW, Parra, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-M, Benny, and Dobell tipped to fall due to 6.7 swing to Labor, and if that swing was state-wide Page, Paterson, Cowper and Robertson would also fall.
For SA, the swing in marginals is 7.8. This would take in the polled marginals of Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby, as expected, but also Sturt. I think the Oz just put in Mayo for a bit of a stir. It needs 13.6, so 7.8 won’t quite do it. Was a bit of fun, however.
Vic is an 8.3, so Deakin, McMillan, Corry and LaTrobe, but perhaps McEwan and Gipps. Another stir from Newspoll – Higgins needs 8.8. It’s a knife-edge for the Less Popular Costello.
Qld will be a bloodbath.
Yep, Noocat the ALP takes 18 for the main course, and gets a few more nice fat ones for desert.
Kelly
It would be a very safe bet to say Geelong will finish worse than they did this year.
That is because even if they win the GF, trends suggest the margin will not be higher becasue all the evidence is that this was an unusually high margin.
All the evidence in polling is the Libs will loose- question is by how much. Certainly they have far less support from the Australian public than last election.
I think the Liberals only hold 17 seats under 5% with Deakin and McMillan being just over 5%
To extend the footy analogy- this is like Carlton 45 points down half time in the 1970 grannie. The victory will be all the sweeter because of the doubters and the supreme cockiness of the opponents.
Colliwobbles are settling in.
Colliwobbles are not settling in. This poll is great for Labor. Get it through your thick heads!
Thanks to Possum for declaring GAME OVER.
This has been a great campaign.
cheers & beers
#
490
wysiwyg Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
IQ is a measure of the speed of classic thinking – it does not deal well with people who think in terms of the big picture (a.k.a. visual processing). Irrespective of your opinion of JWH – he does think about big pictures. We can have a valid argument about his end-game, but playing around with IQ numbers is missing the reality.
kelly Says: “The victory will be all the sweeter because of the doubters and the supreme cockiness of the opponents. Colliwobbles are settling in.”
Oh dear, I think you’re right! Throw out the polls, the stats, the trends, the facts, the whole lot, kelly is RIGHT god-damn-it! …oh no… I think I just shat my undies…. oh the humanity!
Actually Kelly has a point- the Libs are performing thier socks off and they have found a big last minute scandal to gain the upperhand with…oops…the regional rorts thing is about them isn’t it? sorry my bad, never mind
Of these seats the ALP could afford to not win 4 and still form a minority government.
Ms Twain you speak the irrefutable unnonsensical truth. At 7pm East-Coast curtain-saving time it will be all very finely balanced (with a bit of a rush from SA at 7:30). Then along comes Qld with 10-12 seats and oh boy, it’s all over… (hope all my apostrophes were accurate).
Big Blind Dave, George Megalogenis puts it well in his blog today:
Let’s take Vaile’s suggestion of a scrutiny blackout to its illogical conclusion.
Why stop at the Australian National Audit Office? What about the Reserve Bank? Shouldn’t it go on holidays? What about the courts?
Vaile has one more problem. Guess who said this?
“I suppose what we have been trying to achieve in this report is encapsulated in a comment that the now Prime Minister, the then leader of the Opposition, made in June 1995 when he said: ‘We will establish a completely independent Auditor-General so that a fearless and authoritative surveillance of government departments can occur without intimidation from the executive’.”
It was Vaile, then a humble backbencher speaking in parliament on October 10, 1996, after the tabling of Public Accounts committee report No346.
And the title of that committee report which Vaile helped draft? “Guarding the independence of the Auditor-General.”
George,
Print that, stick it to your monitor and read it about 9.30pm next Saturday.
Suggest you also pick up a jumbo pack of daddy-diapers.
I have heard JHo has the rabbit he needs……..he has organized a meeting with Brian Burke at Scores.
Meanwhile back at the Lodge……………….
“This was supposed to be the Summer of John”
Just watching ‘Gardening Australia’. Talking about ‘asthma weed’, apparently has a common name of …. “Kirribilli Curse’ . Should be reported to your local council for compulsory removal!
The following seats are held by less than 5% with my predictions based soley on nazal gazing
Bass (gone)
Braddon (gone)
Parramatta (gone)
Wentworth (Turnbull to hold)
Lindsay (gone)
Eden Monaro (gone)
Bennenlong (?????)
Dobell (TCTC)
Bonner (gone)
Moreton (gone)
Kingston (gone)
Wakefield (gone)
Makin (gone)
Hasluck (gone)
Stirling (TCTC)
Solomon (gone)
The Galaxy figures to June certainly won’t give the Tories any heart.
Kelly @ 620 [Colliwobbles are settling in.]
LOL they are indeed and watching the desperation and wild claims of you lot this week is going to be hilarious. Swinging between increasing frantic moments of desperate delusion and denial back into reality and manic depression and so on back and forth.
Enjoy the roller-coaster ride cos I’l certainly enjoy watching it LOL.
My God – Qld is going to be a blood bath for the LNP. The smaller swings in the marginals leaves room for some huge swings concentrated in LNP safe seats. Most of those marginals will fall and now it seems a whole bunch of safe seats in Qld.
A week out with the LNP self destructing – this could be a record for Labor.
Newspoll, AC Nielsen and Morgan all point to 53-55/45 result and that will be a definate victory no matter how you want to break it up.
Sorry
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/06/12/galaxy-queensland-poll/
Kelly’s anger suggests he/she really believes the game is over. Anyone confident of a win doesn’t get this uptight.
Wake me if a poll actually predicts the ALP will lose.
Glad to see no one’s getting nervous about this one.
One need only have squiz at good ole ozpolitics http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
to know that there is reason Galaxy is Howard’s favourite poll.
If a week out, looking at the marginals, even they see the ALP having a 2 seat buffer (and when only looking at marginals) then it’s all over.
And does it really show Howard losing Bennelong? If so, then forget the 18 seats – that will be the story.
“Of these seats the ALP could afford to not win 4 and still form a minority government.”
Wow.
And i thought it was going to be an absolute landslide.
kelly Says: “George, Print that, stick it to your monitor and read it about 9.30pm next Saturday. Suggest you also pick up a jumbo pack of daddy-diapers.”
kelly, I’ll do one better, stay online on the night and I’ll read it back to you…
Howard on tv now……where did he get his teeth from ? Mr Ed!
scaper long ago … I would be careful using “Katter” and “hung” in the same para, people might get the wrong idea …
In any case I think your big scheme is to do with modifying the GST. Mark Latham would have countenanced this perhaps, but if you suggest to Rudd you may find yourself in some Gulag via Uluru – be very very careful
… they’re not so dumb as to raise the spectre of annihilations past, scaper …
Go the bananas, wysiwyg #626. Now if they’d only take up daylight saving all would be right with the world.
Not anger Bruce, quiet satisfaction.
“Howard ups media events after pressure from journos”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093778.htm
Mmmm, sounds like a REALLY confident coconut there, doesn’t it?
No, that’s anger.
wyswig,
Thanks for the dirty talk but I dont provide that sort of community service but I am sure you may be able to find a user pays site to provide what you are looking for.
Simply put there are huge variations between polls in State level figures, not sure what it means but Newspoll last week was showing NSW as a nothing swing and Galaxy as a tsunami and the reverse with Victoria.
I dont know what this means – but it suggests the narrative that there is an extraordinary level of disengagement is quite true.
I suggest reading the Latham article today, I know he is the Labor party’s cassandra but there is a lot of truth to his analysis about polls.
I guess it all comes down to what Galaxy define as a “marginal seat”. Most of the coalition held seats in QLD aren’t “marginal” in the traditional meaning of the word.
Kelly, I’ve never predicted an ALP landslide. I think the median prediction on this site was in the low 80s for a seat count for the ALP. And that’s from a very pro-Labor base.
Has the Liberal campaign descended to an all new level of stupidity now?
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/detail/20071116_UnionBossesCantWaittogettheirHandsonGovernment.php
Whatever you think of Ken Case’s actions yesterday the video footage essentially shows two “thuggish-looking” security guards heavy handing a guy who appears to be peacefully out of the room.
The premise is that Unions can’t wait to get their hand on Government but the imagery is someone trying to get their hands on Howard.
To me this gives away that they truly think that they are born to rule.
LTEP – I can vouch for you. I had you down for a Coalition win.
Kelly sounds like Mark Williams (port adelaide)
Either a lot of “commentators” here don’t hail from Queensland or the amber ale is flowing too strongly already but nonsense talk of ” gaining 6-16″ seats in the sunshine state is just folly.
The ALP currently hold 6 out of 29 Federal Seats:
That leaves 23.
No man-made WMD could unseat Bob Katter in Kennedy, that leaves 22.
The ALP is not making a dent on the four Nats seats, and are outsiders for the new seat of Flynn, that leaves 17.
Now suggesting 16 wins is just plain dumb. You mean 1 Lib seat in QLD and the rest ALP???!!!!
6 seats net gain for the ALP is possible, though betting markets are only showing them favourites in 6 seats total. Rankin, Oxley, Moreton, Lilley, Herbert, Griffith.
So if there is a single net gain to be had in these seats in Qld, it appears the betting market doesn’t know about it.
I actually predicted a gain of 20 seats for Labor. Hell, the Galaxy poll suggests 18. Hardly a landslide prediction.
Marktwain, Yes about the newspoll, but you can’t extrapolate to other seats – especially as we don’t yet have the numbers!
But all things being equal, looks like time for espresso doppio – you know, when naught else hits the spot?
In a Canberra Times article, Jack Waterford includes this intriguing sentence -
“The party’s political machinery has also been closely, and improperly, hooked into the information and intelligence data properly gathered (for other purposes) by government agencies in a way that may be difficult for the new government to disentangle.”
Anyone here know what this is about?
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/tired-tactics-leave-howards-message-lost-in-translation/1088100.html
I think Most posters here wuold say Labor 80-85 seats as a mean.
Gawd if we are looking at landslide really really early I’ll need to break open the fizz well before the sun goes over the yard arm. It will be ‘must see TV’ but I’ll have this site up and running too. (And if Dennis is right, i’ll be drinking even earlier…..jokin’)
646 [quiet satisfaction.]
Rowdy Tory grumpiness more like it.
Well you can certainly add MORETON to the ALP column.
It’s gone, gone, gone.
BMWofVictoria@598
The Tories if they loose, will challenge every possible seat, the electoral process, whatever. They are using the Rove/Bush manual to elections, where you loose but you still get the job.
Looking at the current seats wouldn’t a Labor victory of 80-85 seats qualify as a landslide anyway?
I think it would.
EdStJ, rather than read last week’s Newspoll, have a look at this morning’s poll of marginals in NSW, Vic, Qld and SA (aka the interesting states). Then have a look at the Nielsen state-by-state (except Tas), also published this morning. They are quite similar. The purported Galaxy says a 10-seat gain in NSW, as do Newspoll and Nielsen, which I don’t quite believe. But then compare Galaxy’s minor result in Queensland, which I also don’t quite believe.
Lesson to all is – buy a bloody newspaper!
GO, the betting markets aren’t showing the ALP in front in Bonner?
GO
What about Bonner, Blair, Herbert (check sportingbet). I could go on. You are talking crud.
I wouldn’t buy The GG if it was the last paper on Earth.
@668
Gary Bruce
What if the Supermarket ran out of toilet paper?
669 Gerr – I’d be forced to buy the Herald Sun, which is all that it is good for.
Queensland betting
Bonner ALP 1.04; coalition write your own price.
http://qld.betelection.com/
What’s GO going on about then? Some special conservative-leaning betting site?
Oops – last paper on Earth. I would use a leaf, anything but buy The GG. It’s not worth sh…ing on.
We are beginning to see the narrowing
……. Centrebet has Bennelong at 1.52/2.35 
655
Generic Oracle
6 in NSW + 3 in Vic + 3 in SA + 3 in Tas/NT + 1 in WA (on extremely conservative estimates, giving some to one state and taking away from the other) means Qld only has to deliver exactly nothing for an ALP victory. Even you would agree that Qld will deliver a bit more. As a long-suffering Bananabender, anything more than one equals a bloodbath.
On the back of this crushing news from Galaxy that the ALP will… errr… win, centrebet odds for the LNP have come all the way in to … oh wait, they’re still $4.60.
(And btw Maxine HAS come in – to $2.35; from about 2.75 earlier today I think)
Read this on Oz Elections forum
“Talking of boxes, Howard’s campaign office is next door to a funeral parlour! That’s convenient!”
kevin rudd wants Labor candidates to do so much doorknocking in the next week that “their knuckles are bleeding”. what a clown.
Channel 7 Brisbane says Labor will only win Bonner and Moreton according to Galaxy in Sunday Mail tomorrow.
ABC News Sydney has just reported that the Poll out tomorrow will show a similar result as the 54%-46% Newspoll on marginals.
HH @525, been watching sportingbet. Odds on Paterson are closing more than I would have thought. Probably just responding to the marginal poll.
At this stage Maxine looks a safer bet, I think.
Not sure why so many anti-howards are so happy to gloat. He’s r00ted our country over for the last 11 1/2 years for his own conceited greed and ambition. No amount of swing against him and the Libs can ever repay for how much Australia has lost because of the vile-racist-sneaky-little-lying rodents attacks on all that is good about this country.
Oh my, it’s a sad day and sign of the times when coalition supporters actually get excited with a poll showing they will lose all marginal seats lol.
The point is that ALL polls of all persuasions persistently and consistently show a minimum of 16 seats falling to Labor to quite easily.
Considering this Galaxy was taken only in marginals it is not surprising to see a tighter contest than state based as the marginals is where the Libs firewall strategy has allocated all their campaign activity.
Considering these polls show the Libs losing ALL of those marginals in spite of the firewall strategy campaign suggests very strongly to me they will be slaughtered in the next tier up of 5-10% safe seats.
To me this marginal Galaxy shows the total failure of the lib firewall strategy and indicates it will be a landslide of historic proportions.
Rolling average TPP for ALP in Qld since January.
54,54,52,56,54,53
Labor primary
49,47,46,52,50,49
2-11 Nov Labor Primary average 49%
compared with 34.8% in 2004 up 14 points with LNP Primary down 6 points. Doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence if you are LNP.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-16nov.pdf
Yes kelly, how stupid of him to tell his troops to get out and work hard.
What is he thinking?? Doesn’t he know it’s time to coast to victory???!!!
@682 slack boy well said.
Anyone checked centerbet as of now –
Labor 1.17
Libs 5.10
JHo wants Liberal candidates to do so much door knocking in the next week that “their Prada shoes are worn out”. what a clown.
slackboy @ 682.
I agree.
I also think that all of the gloating here is a very bad look – one of the most offensive traits of Howard & his team of supporters over those years has been their arrogance & contempt they hold for others.
You’d hope that if an ALP victory eventuates, the ALP supporters don’t do the same to their opponents.
Forget the public polling for a moment. Look at where Rudd and Howard have been over the past couple of days.
Rudd heads to Bowman (8.9 p/c), Dawson (10 p/c), Sturt (5 p/c plus) and heads over to the west. He’s done two functions in Stirling in the past week and a half.
Howard’s visit after his launch was to Dickson (almost 10 p/c), then to Leichhardt (another 10 p/c), and today took in Greenway and his own seat.
They’re all Liberal held seats, some with huge margins. Now there is a theory that Rudd’s trying to play with Howard’s head, but you don’t play silly buggers this close to the election. You focus where there is movement, where your polling says there’s a chance or you’re in trouble.
Through five weeks of campaigning, Rudd has visited just a couple of ALP seats (including his own). All of the rest have been coalition-held, some with substantial margins (hell, he’s even been to Page twice). Howard has been to two ALP seats – Griffith (for his launch) and Parramatta (notionally ALP). Even his trip to WA was more about protecting Stirling and Hasluck than trying to win Cowan and Swan. And he’s yet to get to Tasmania.
Rudd speaks to the Press Club on Wednesday for his last major address, while Howard speaks Thursday. This limits how much travel they can do.
The public polling is giving an insight into what the internal polling is saying, and the travels of Howard and Rudd is a physical manifestation of that internal polling.
686 gerr – WOW – that must have happened in the last 5 minutes – when I was on there it was $4.60.
How much cash would be needed to move it that much? Or is it a case that no one was biting at $4.60 so they put them out to try and get some takers?
Word has it the Coalition are about to be scratched in the betting market…
slackboy the reason I’m hoping that Howard and pals go down in the most ignominious way possible is two fold.
One is cultural. It will take the steam out of those people who are pushing a selfish “I’m alright, bugger you” society.
The other is it will give Rudd more freedom to try to undo some of the bloody minded back-to-the-50s social engineering Howard has inflicted on us.
Anyone?
What are the order of states that are counted on election night?
OFF TOPIC
Just wondering what everyone does election night, do you watch the coverage with friends or family? What is best coverage in everyones opinions? Do you do a nudie run if the election falls your way
Again a serious punter might put some cash on the coalition for shits and giggles
as an over the horizon longshot.
kelly Says: “kevin rudd wants Labor candidates to do so much doorknocking in the next week that “their knuckles are bleeding”. what a clown.”
I love clowns, with their big shoes and crazy hair – don’t you love it how they light up a room? They’re soooo cool!
Maxine also in to 2.35 with centrebet
DIManson. I don’t have any knowledge of what that sentence may mean, but found it sufficiently intriguing to read the article. It’s almost as though he’s writing a post mortem. I also wonder what it could mean and that if there’s been something dodgy going on, whether someone who knows, might blow the whistle, as a way of enduring protection. Check Possum’s latest piece.
Anyone seeing any election advertising on TV tonight? Very little here in Adelaide.
I reckon the sudden change in Centrebet odds is a pre-emptive strike. They know there will be a deluge of cash on Labor and they have to guard against a mauling.
LaborVoter Says: “Word has it the Coalition are about to be scratched in the betting market…”
Where’d you hear that LV?
Hell, that Galaxy poll is sure having that narrowing effect on the betting markets Kelly isn’t it?
Centrebet
$1.17
$5.10
Is this a two horse race? Or has one got three legs?
689 coota – don’t reveal his secrets!
I’m downgrading my prediction to 93 seats. Hopeful that I can get the reasons for this up on Fair News ASAP.
Has anyone noticed no Coalition ads on TV.
Saw an ad on TV for The Greens and it was pretty woeful. They really need some professional advise on how to put an ad together.
I’ve got the TV on in the background – Funniest Home Video – and have not heard one political ad.
I did predict 84 but get the feeling it is going to be 90+
Here’s the Galaxy poll and how accurate they were three days before the Queensland election was called last year they had the coalition leading!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/369
You don’t look at individual polls. You must look at the overall picture. The overall picture is that the Coalition is closing the gap on Labor but Labor is still in a fairly comfortable position to win. There has been a slight narrowing in the polls but still every poll and bookie indicate at least a 76 seat win for the ALP. Hey, after nearly 12 years of Howard I’d be happy for a minor win.
Triffid@699
Just saw the Govt. add – ‘Terrorists are hiding under your bed – better report them on the hotline’.
And an ad that Labor is bad for young people. I kid you not.
AEC laws state that there are to be no political ad’s on TV for the week leading up to the election day.
And no I wasn’t being serious about the Coalition being scratched in the betting market, but would be funny if it happened.
$5.10
LOL
The Cook Islands would have better odds at beating the wallabies in rugby than the Coalition has of beating the ALP now!!!
This latest unknown Marginal Galaxy Poll is the one for the true believers. This is the one which will show the narrowing. This is the one which will turn the tide. This is the one which will bring home the bacon. This is the one they have been waiting for since Godot. This is the one which will prove once and for all that Morgan, Newspoll and ACN are at best fabricated to construct a narrative to sell dog food ads. This is real manna from heaven. Finally the time has come the true believers have been waiting for.
The Libs are coming back, they are coming back….
Be afraid, be very afraid because when Howard gets back in, he will be angry, very angry and he will want to punish the electorate for playing such a sick joke on him.
And He will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempted to poison and destroy his Liberal brothers. And they will know that Howard is the Lord when He will lay His vengeance upon you…
Grog Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
ROTFLOL
Going on those latest QLD betting figures and giving a 50:50 split to the line ballers, I make 12 seats to Labor in QLD for a 6 seat gain.
Sorry, ensuring protection. Damn these multifocals.
WYSIWYG
I play the field and the power base will come through when they are required.
It’s a dangerous game I play, but this is necessary to achieve the goal.
At this point………. nothing to lose!
Sorry if this has been previously noted, on Sportingbet Maxine has moved in to $2.40 and the rodent is out to $1.50. (She was $2.65 for the last few days)
We have movement, and there’s a smell of burnt rodent in the air.
Triffid – a lot of people have been hurt by the rodent’s rancid,revolting regime; You cant blame them for being happy to see the end of the vicious little rat. First the purge, then the positive reconstruction of the individual and national psyches.
slackboy – after 11 years a bit of gloating is ok. The difference is this party won’t gloat while in government (which even I admit the ALP did a bit of after 93 – absolutely fatal).
Costello, Abbott, Downer, Vaile et al have been gloating for 3 years thinking it didn’t matter what they did because 16 seats was a 2 term margin.
If you want proof, read the ANAO report.
Errata
Should have checked figures more widely. *embarrassed* to have forgotten Bonner and Moreton, they are looking sunk on the betting market.
That gives, by my estimation, 8 seats to Labor at present. An increase of 2.
Now, here is a spanner:
1. Family First leveraged Ross Vasta into Bonner in what should have been a shoe-in for Con Sciacca. This by a figure of almost 4% on preferences. They are also strong in Moreton and the party polled 7% in QLD in the state election. These equivalent State seats were not contested by FFP (when the State Election caught all parties off-guard, being so early!). Labor walked away from a FFP preference deal, so they have had little choice but go back to the coalition (despite some discontent with Libs here!).
2. Unless the ALP can manage a) the current margin PLUS approximately 2/3 of the FFP primary, the seats, amazingly, are STILL in jeopardy..
Coota Bulldog.
Thanks for the compelling analysis. To support your sound argument, Parra has become a Liberal marginal now according to A. Green:
Parramatta
Sydney Western Suburbs
Marginal Liberal 0.8%
(*) – The party status of this electorate has changed. See notes on redistribution below.
We have had a couple of ads from Wozza (Warren Entsch, Leichardt) telling us to vote for Charlie McKillop because she has worked with him to get the best deal from Canberra. Wozza tells us she is the best person for the job.
So what you say. !
Well, the Liberal logo was in the first frame but disappeared, no mention of the Liberal Party or John Howard was spoken, and the ad was written and authorised by Wozza. Again, no Liberal Party was mentioned.
Here is a tip folks. Leichardt is a special for the long odds. Everyone talks in Cairns and everyone is saying that Charlie has no chance. She is a nice enough lady but the time has come. Just like Eden-Monaro Leichardt is a bellweather seat. It will change hands. Come on down Jim Tourner !
Concerning High profile candiates and how they can backfire. In five weeks of travelling around the seat, I have only seen labour posters with Rudd in them, The labour fellow running for this seat has had no appearances, except for last Wednesday when he turned up nearly one hour late to a function. Still to get rid of Howard I will vote for the local labour guy.
DiIManson @ 658 : I know what it means, untangling the mess left behind by 12 years of the Coalition and finding out what the “real” story is on the economy, and various high-Budget portfolios.
In a Canberra Times article, Jack Waterford includes this intriguing sentence -
“The party’s political machinery has also been closely, and improperly, hooked into the information and intelligence data properly gathered (for other purposes) by government agencies in a way that may be difficult for the new government to disentangle.”
For example, coercing public servants to supply information that would normally be considered as constituting Breach of privacy/confidentiality of individuals and organisations has been more common under Coalition govt. Canberran public servants (in policy line agencies) will be living in *interesting* times in a week or two!
Adam I love your maps! I live in Canberra, but I did laugh, I would have a drive a long, long way to find a booth that was Liberal even of the palest of blues… *chuckle*
Goodbye Mr T @ 721. I’m one of those people who would be very happy.
I just think its a bad look to gloat at the losing side. Enjoy by all means, but do it with some dignity.
CBet
1. LABOR 1.17
2. COALITION 5.10
*lost for words*
red wombat @ 533
Good wombat, bewdy! Make sure the Upwey booth is covered early. You’ll need at least three on the booth at all times – one to cover the pig-brains that try to sneak through on the Belgrave side. Is the booth still the hall opposite the station? Or that church near the pizza shop?
Australia wins the netball world cup – well done ladies.
At least we have WON something!! The Aussie girls have just beaten the NZ girls in the world netball champ in Auckland
Betting markets have gone nuts!
Benelong is about the only good value left.
Can anyone give me another tip or two where the value is good?
Check out the markets of Bass and Braddon for something weird also.
They all stood in a huddle after the game, both teams together side by side after a really great game, that is one of the more amazing things I’ve seen on a sporting feild/court.
Legal definitions by Kevin Andrews:
“Legal technicality” – any legal judgment or decision that I personally disagree with.”
Benelong is still the best bet. Longman is in to $2.30.
I’ll just point out that the team are all members of the Australian Workers Union.
Bill Shorten should be happy.
As they said before, put $30 down on the election on sportingbet and use the $100 free bet on Maxine
734 [They all stood in a huddle after the game, both teams together side by side after a really great game, that is one of the more amazing things I’ve seen on a sporting feild/court.]
I’ll be expecting the Rat to follow their example immediately following his concession speech this time next week.
#737 – Exactly, that is why “WE”
Jackman has a post on big movements in the national betting markets.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=445
Keep an eye on some Fairfax/Rural Press papers tomorrow (Sunday):
An EMRS poll to be published tomorrow shows all five Tasmanian seats being won by Labor.
The poll shows a 60-40 statewide two-party-preferred result for Labor, with the pollster saying that 80 per cent of those making up the high Green primary vote of 17 per cent had said they would give Labor their second preference.
Cbet
1. LABOR 1.17
2. COALITION 5.10
Well
Betfair has
ALP 1.26
Team Rodent 4.40
- a chance to make a quick arbitrage profit if you can be bothered!
Re: TV ads. The blackout is 3 days (midnight wednesday I think) not a week, as someone suggested.
Ads in this footpad tonight have been frequent. They are National Party scare ads – Labor will keep all the money in Sydney and stop the special projects the Nationals have introduced. These ads are not aimed at Paterson (liberal) but Lyne and the lower half of Cowper What is going on? A response to the Auditor’s report – particularly as Vaile’s hand has been caught in the till? how close is Cowper? Surely Vaile can’t be under threat in Lyne, can he?
ALP up on 18 and dead even on Page. Jackman has them winning 78 with an expected 80 (agregate of centerbet, sportingbet,portlandbet).
Kelly this isn’t Carlton VS anyone. This Port adelaide vs Geelong all over again. It will be over in the first quater, but this time I won’t lose interest but watch every gruelling minute.
Nuntucket sleigh ride to you my girl!
Since Jackman’s post, the betting has gone even MORE nuts. Looks like punters finally realise that Labor’s going to SMASH the Libs. I’ll change my prediction to 95 seats for Labor, down from 100-105, but there could still be a final week blow-out, as soft Lib voters jump on the Rudd bandwagon. Marginal seats polling is horrid for the govt; that explains the betting.
Anyone (from either side of politics) who thinks these polls give any comfort to the Coalition needs their head examined.
Here’s a question: which seat will produce (a) the biggest 2PP swing to Labor and (b) the smallest 2PP swing to Labor (or biggest swing to Coalition).
I’ll be Sydney-centric about it (sorry all):
(a) Warringah – Tony will go close to losing an unloseable seat.
(b) Wentworth – in fact, I’ll stick my neck out further and say that Wentworth will be the only seat in the Reps that will swing to the Coalition (2PP).
Thoughts?
Triffid @ 688
Yes that win “for the True Believers” speech of Keating’s guaranteed a good part of his demise. What I really would hate to see though is any politician ever use the word “MANDATE” again.
NEW THREAD
Dyno, I agree on (b).
gosh these odds are ridiculous. Phar lap was 1.72 in 1932. Shorley it can’t go under 1.10? If so I’ll eat my hat.
oakeshott @744, that just deepens the mystery about Paterson. Why are Labor targetting ads at Lyne and Cowper but not Paterson? Do they think they have Paterson in the bag?
Dave, at $1.17 in Bass and Braddon ALP are certs to claim both.
Frank Calabrese steered me to a good value Indie bet, Noel Brunning currently at $4.50 in Forrest. Noel’s got lots of Peter Andren-type appeal in the current climate of State and Federal skull-duggery in WA. Also, trawling through the work that Possum has done with demographics, I reckon Ross Daniels is still good value at $2.80 in Ryan despite requiring a 10.4% swing.
If I were a big punter/large investor, a 17% return in 7 days is still a nice little earner worth serious consideration. A lot of superannuants would be happy to get a ROI like that over a whole year.
Another thing Howard doesn’t need is the IPCC report saying climate change is really urgent and that it’s time to get moving. This isn’t what he’s been saying (or doing) and is yet another element in Howard’s perfect storm.
It’s going so well for him, isn’t it?
State By State Key Seat Predictions. (Bracket Labor seats they need to win government)
New South Wales
Macquarie
Labor gain. (1)
Richmond
Labor retain.
Lowe
Labor retain.
Banks
Labor retain.
Parramata
Labor in a tight one, depending on the swing.
Wentworth
Too close to call.
Lindsay
Depsite TV portrayal, Labor will get this one. (2)
Eden-Monaro
Don’t count out Nairn here. Too close to call.
Bennelong
Howard will hang on, but expect a 3% swing.
Dobell
Liberals will win this.
Paterson
Liberals.
Robertson
Liberals.
Macarthur
Liberals, but expect a heavy cut in margin.
Page
Nationals hold.
Cowper
Nationals hold.
Northern Territory
Lingiari
Labor hold.
Solomon
Labor will win this one (3)
South Australia
Hindmarsh
Labor will win, but remember it is mortgage and age belt.
Adelaide
Labor to extend margin here.
Kingston
Labor will win here. (4)
Wakefield
Another Labor win in my home state. (5)
Makin (My Seat)
Despite flashy campaign from Liberal candidate, expect Labor to win with a reasonable swing. (6)
Boothby
It is likely that Southcott will win, but Cornes will be no pushover. Expect a close one.
Sturt
You’d think Pyne would hang on, but i’m tipping an upset. (7)
Queensland
Rankin
Labor retain.
Brisbane
Labor retain.
Lilley
The probable Treasurer will extend his margin. And coming up, You-Know-Who’s seat is not part of this.
Bonner
Labor victory (8)
Moreton
Labor to win well (9)
Blair
Another Labor upset (10)
Herbert
I’m tipping the Local boys made good effect to give this one to Labor (11)
Longman
Brough will just hang on.
Petrie
Gambaro to hang on will a big swing against her.
Bowman
Another Labor win. (12)
Dickson
Dutton will hang on, but the Queensland Labor swing will affect him here.
Leichhardt
Coalition will hang on here, but I won’t count Labor out.
Ryan
Pro-metropolitan Brisbane swing to Labor, but the margin is too big.
Forde
Too big even for a large Labor swing. Nationals hold.
Flynn
Nationals hold.
Hinkler
Potential upset. Coalition hold though.
Dawson
Nationals hold.
Kennedy
An easy Katter victory.
Tasmania
Franklin
Labor hold.
Lyons
Labor hold.
Denison
Labor hold.
Bass
Labor to win. (13)
Braddon
Labor to win. (14)
Victoria
Bendigo
Labor win.
Holt
Labor win.
Isaacs
Labor win.
Ballarat
Labor win.
Chisholm
Labor again.
Bruce
Deja Vu.
Melbourne Ports
Labor. Labor. Labor.
Deakin
Labor will break it’s duck (15)
McMillan
A Labor upset (16)
Corangamite
McArthur will hang on.
La Trobe
Will swing. Labor will win (17)
McEwen
Potential upset. Bailey will hold on.
Gippsland
McGauran hold.
Western Australia
Swan
Bugger Westpoll, i’m tipping Wilkie to win
Cowan
Labor to win this as well
Brand
Gray win
Hasluck
Too close to call
Stirling
Tinley to win (18)
Kalgoorlie
Liberal win.
Canning
Randall hold.
Yep, saw an ALP on Nine here in Sydney during the News. It was the Bells and Buzzers ad.
Dyno – I agree with you. IF the ALP wins Wentworth, a record breaking win will be on the cards. I think Turnbull will retain – not sure if his primary will increase, but his 2PP probably will.
For what its worth my prediction is the the outcome will be clear before the WA polls close 8pm est.
You’ll all be well into the Chamfers long before us!
Privileges of time……
My tips on Bennelong and Wentworth.
After a long thought, i’m tipping both will go to preferences, which will benefit Labor.
ELECTION TIP
Labor to win and it will be over before W.A.
i’ve seen the adds on chanel 10 just b4, the labor one with rud and howrds faces flashing up and teh text saying “i’ll ratify kyoto”, “I wont” etc……
Best value is in the Victorian Seats I reckon.
Labor is going to sh*t it in in Victoria imho.
Deakin and Corangimite still betting in Libs favour??? What a joke!
And I still think Howards going to lose his seat.
For those who don’t buy The Oz, here’s how its “Panel” saw the week:
Paul Kelly – It was Kevin Rudd’s week.
Shanahan – Labor continues to win the 2007 election campaign (et tu Dennis?)
Patricia Karvelas – Labor won the week after a bold Kevin Rudd…
Chris Uhlmann – Labor won the week and has comprehensively out-campaigned the Coalition. (yes he did say that)
Stephen Loosley – The final week will still be hard, but Labor won this week convincingly.
Matthew Franklin – Labor won this week decisively.
David Speers – Week five went to Labor.
Lynton Crosby (of Crosby-Textor) – Mixed fortunes this week. (and no I’m not making that up) Get this – “Labor’s attempt to misrepresent the cost of the policies by taking those on just one day played into the Government’s hands”.
Gee it must be nice to be paid to make stuff up.
C-Woo (for the 10th time) you can’t claim both Macquarie and Parramatta as Labor gains.
Makin tip.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Zappia won with a reasonably good margin.
C-woo You missed out North Sydney (my wishful smokey)
Then technically what is Maquarie?
And the reason for Corongamite Liberal hold is
1. Rural area.
2. Don’t know the Labor member.
Hockey will hold on in North Sydney, but it could be marginal next election.
#760 Kat – don’t know whether you noticed the other “bells and buzzers” ad on Ch 10 – it was for Rove! He has ripped it off and used it to advertise that Rudd IS coming on the show and Howard ISN’T. Rudd MIGHT tell us who he would turn gay for, Howard WON’T…..etc.
Then, 30 seconds later – the real ALP ad. Gee, you couldn’t ask for better message reinforcement.
Just saw the RuddStar on the ABC, gotta be in the home straight now.
For christ sakes I am getting sick and tired of people saying Turnbull won’t win Wentworth… do the maths idiots!!!
He won on a 55.5% TPP in 2004. But wait… theres more!!
He got 42% of the Primary which is nothing special right?? WRONG! King who was the previous Lib member went Ape and ran as an independent… he scored 18% of the vote!
So we have Turnbull + King @ 60% for the Right Wing vote!
You guys are dreaming for a 10% swing against Malcolm Turnbull, wake up and smell the coffee fellas
Re 758,
greggowa Says:
Do they or will they call the race before the polls close in WA? Or will the “niceties” be observed and they will wait until after 8pm? How have previous elections worked out in that regard?
Let’s see how the other national TPP polls, when broken down by state, line up with the alleged Galaxy story of just 2 seats in Qld:
Newspoll 19-28 Oct
Qld swing 4% above national average, highest swing of any state
Newspoll 2-11 Nov
Qld swing 3% above national average, highest swing of any state
Nielsen April-Sept
Qld swing 2% above national average, 2nd highest swing of any state (behind SA)
Nielsen Oct-Nov (since election called)
Qld swing 2% above national average, highest swing of any state
Morgan FTF October
Qld swing 3% above national average, highest swing of any state
Each of those polls, by the way, also shows WA with the weakest swing to Labor. They mostly show SA with an above-average swing, with Vic and NSW swapping places between polls, with one above and one below the national average.
On that basis, I would be very surprised if Labor only wins 2 seats in Qld.
Note also that Galaxy’s calculations are not always perfect. Their midyear poll which allegedly showed a poor result for Labor was based on a miscalculation of the ALP 2PP vote at the 2004 election (they used 2001 figures) followed by a confusion of TPP vote and swing by the journalist writing it up (who said “And if the poll result were repeated on election day, Labor would not win the seats required in Queensland and would hand Prime Minister John Howard a fifth term” whereas it actually showed a 9% swing to Labor once the correct election results were used).
I’d also add that the Liberals here are running 1000 miles from Howard. I’ve spent some time travelling around Petrie and there are posters for Kevin Rudd, the Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro, the Labor candidate Yvette d’Ath, even Your Rights at Work, but I haven’t seen a John Howard poster yet. I guess there must be some, somewhere, but wherever they are it’s not prominent.
Ad for the Ten News saying “A week out form the election a new poll shows the ALP are in front of the Coalition”.
The odd thing was the way it was read was like it was a surprise.
Don’t know if it refers to Galaxy or Newspoll. If it is Galaxy, it probably isn’t the way those hoping for a narrowing would like it to be represented.
Got an aggregate for the lazy CWoo?
Watching Channel 10 at the moment. Don’t know about any political ads, but I do know I’ve seen Star Wars once too often.
Howard to lose, Turnbull to hang on.
We’ve got to have a prediction day/ night/post on weds thurs or Fri so we can all lay the cards on the table, and maybe have a winner of a free Kevin 07 tshirt or something.?
I have a correction to make thanks to Adam-Carr’s website, in 1996 Keating suffered a 9.1% I must say while I only looked at NSW it would appear in 1996 the Liberals received larger swings in safe ALP seats in western sydney of around 8% while some of the more marginal ALP seats swung by less.
On a funny note Howard’s primary vote was about what his currant margin is.
Haven’t mate, but you’d expect over 50% for Labor.
Gerr @ 776,
Already done ….
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Andrews: “Legal pettifogging gone mad – that’s why we’ll change the law …”
He must be burnt at the stake, nothing personal, but our society must rid itself of … well … parasites and evil smelly things …
He is a first-class, top shelf cruel born-again dogsbody with fleas and nits and hydatids that if on fire forget finding the bloody hose why waste water on a maggot …(sorry. Rant over)
Can i get on it?
Don’t know if William has said anything – but there’s a new thread up.
JUlie @ 771.
It happenend once that I can remember, and it was before Day light saving that the election was all over before the polls closed in WA.
Might have been in 72 with Gough and the ” It’s time ” Any way the Sandgropers were really p ( no upset ) that it was all over and they were not invited to the party.
781,
Gerr, you will have to ask BlueBottle. (??) I think he is the official keeper of the list, someone else can correct me if I am wrong. If memory serves, they closed the list of guesses officially at that point just so that he wouldn’t have to be tied to the computer changing and updating the list all of the time. As you can imagine, that could get hectic in the final days.
For the record though, I’ve no idea what the winner gets. However, for those of us with more than one on the same number, we’ve had to pick a tie breaker.
The first web report I’ve seen of the Galaxy poll (inless I missed an earlier post), uploaded on the West Australian at
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22775767-2761,00.html
N = 4000 respondents in 20 seats = 200 voters per seat.
Claims a swing in marginals of only 4.5% (very different story to Newspoll), incl just 0.8% swing in WA.
Guys, see what you think of this, with regards to Bennelong:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?pid=30910#p30910
Is anyone going to suggest that Howard will suddenly pull a rabbit out of the hat in his own seat, when he hasn’t all year?
For your info everyone, if you go to Roy Morgan Research main page, and go to the left column and you’ll see a pink square with Election 2007 written; click on there and they set out how each electorate is polling 2pp at the moment.
You can either give a postcode, locality, or the electorate name, and it will publish the current situation. I stumbled on this last night and it was quite revealing. Don’t know anything about its methodology vis a viz individual seats, but its a pleasant exercise nonetheless. Ive simply been typing in the electorate name and the data comes up.
For example, it shows that Wentworth, Bennelong, Warringah will fall but North Sydney will not, that Gippsland will fall too, etc. Have a go!!! Cheers!!
This is why I am a mug punter.
1. Bet my freebie $100 on Maxine @ $2.75
2. $10 on Mike Bailey @ $7.00
3. $20 on Peter Tinley @ $2.10
If they all come in it’s a $287 payout for $30 outlay, or 8.6 to 1 odds.
But of course they won’t all come in. That’s why I’m a mug.
Gerr @ 776
Tried to get a Kevin 07 T-shirt today in Parramatta. No luck. So, I’ll poke me head out and say: Turnbull will retain Wentworth, just. Reason: He is probably the only “reasonable” voice left in what’s presently known as the Liberal Party of Australia. However, I doubt he will last the distance in Opposition. Three Kevin 07 t-shirts, size small, would be good … ta
gp
sorry I haven’t spoken to u, had to study for final exam. You said workchoices was working because I got another job, just so you know, workchoices had nothing to do with me securing employment, perseverance go me a job – brethren.
sayonara, mrs gusface.
BLUEBOTTLE has been banned.
I think EC in comment 215 above puts his finger on something interesting. There is this election and then there are all these seats with their own peculiar niggles.
In Warringah, the incumbent, Tony Abbott, holds the margin with 11.3% cushion.
But the local rugby league team, the Sea Eagles, through the CEO, has pulled a stroke by announcing three days ago that because of lack of funding and government help to refurbish the 1940s vintage Brookvale Oval home ground, the iconic northern beaches team will move its base to the Central Coast, namely Gosford.
This is clearly a put-up job to suck some money out of the desperate Tony Abbott and there would have been a bit of pressure leading up to this, with finally Abbo calling their bluff. He has ignored the requests, rightly or wrongly, saying this was state and local gumment matter – despite the fact that Johh Howard has promised $12 million for the hospital in Putney in Bennelong (a state matter), and Labor has pledged a few mil for Leichhardt Oval, home ground of the Wests Tigers rugby league team (another strictly state issue).
Below is a link to Peter Peter’s column in today’s Manly Daily. Peters, known as “Zorba” is a PR flack for the Manly Leagues and his “view” must be taken with a grain of salt – he is paid to say these things, just like Hendo elsewhere.
http://www.manlydaily.com.au/article/2007/11/17/7405_sports.html
The Manly Daily is a local throwaway that is a genuine daily newspaper and arguably the best read and most authoritative free in Australia running to 98 pages with a weekend gloss realo supplement. Its home delivered circulation covers Warringah and Mackellar fed electorates.
Warringah is largely a conservative electorate with a handful of genuine Labor booths. Yet it is gettable on local issues and people aren’t ideologically committed to the Liberal Party like they would be in, say, Toorak.
In 2001, local identity, state member and currently mayor, Dr Peter Macdonald had a very good go at Abbott and reduced his margin to 5.4%, but Tampa intervened and punters looked at the big picture of hordes of wogs on boats coming into Pittwater and stampeded back to the Liberals.
At another time, your correspondent ran the campaign for local councilor and deputy mayor, Julie Sutton, in the state election for Davidson, which is pretty much same as Warringah in the federal parliament.
This was the election in which Nick Greiner enticed the then state education minister, Terry Metherell, to resign and get out of parliament, by offering him a public service position. Terry was coincidentally up to then, a member for Davidson.
Metherell, a PhD, upset the punters with his unilateral and perceived arrogant beahviour in the education portfolio and was an electoral liability coming up to the state elections and Greiner wanted to rid himself of this millstone. And did.
But this caused a furore and led to an ICAC investigation, which ultimately caused Greiner to also resign from parliament – although he was later exonerated. I took advantage of the turmoil and suggested to Julie that this was an opportunity where the electorate was disturbed enough to vote against the normal trend.
It almost worked, and the new Liberal candidate, a rather obtuse chap called Andrew Humpherson, was taken to preferences.
What I think spoiled Julie’s run was Sally Loan’s breathless “investigation” piece in the SMH into Julie’s background “discovering” that she was the sister of Jeanette McHugh, the then high profile minister in the Keating government. The Liberal Party then put about quite false but damaging scuttlebutt that Julie was a Labor plant – she ran as, and was a genuine independent.
Abbott is on the nose in the electorate because of his down-the-throat-views about stem cell research and abortion and he is widely viewed as a hand-puppet for Pell on such things; because of his hands-off attitude towards the developing trainwreck that is the Royal North Shore Hospital and the hospitals debacle in Warringah generally, which involves the impending downgrade or closure of Manly hospital and its substitution in the as-yet-nonexistent hospital at Frenchs Forest.
Hospitals are unusually important issues in Warringah, because of the high number of people who are getting on in years and indeed, in a state by-election, a local independent mayor in Pittwater, which is in the adjoining peninsula federal electorate of Mackellar, was able to beat the Liberal candidate after the incumbent, John Brogden flipped his lid and resigned.
The mayor, Alex MacTaggart ran on a single issue: retention of the threatened Mona Vale Hospital (which is also set to be replaced by the non-existent super hospital at Frenchs Forest).
Abbott has been near invisible on all this and he is the health minister. His mantra has been: “it is all the responsibility of the nasty nasty state Labor gumment”. This was not a good thing to say. Now people don’t believe him after Howard’s intervention in Tasmania and Putney (Bennelong).
I reckon Abbo is already only just 3 to 4% clear from the brink. The Brookvale Oval shenanigans and payback threats for his intransigence, as per Zorba’s column, may indeed run him very close to the brink if not over it. And he knows it, hence the hysterical note in his latest appearances.
Sir Henry @ 792
Thanks for that. Fills out the picture. I note the term “your correspondent … “
It’s increasingly looking like a hung parliament.
Re a rebuild of Brookie Oval – you have to remember that for all of us who don’t support the Silvertails, our second favourite team is the one playing Manly this week (even if it is Melbourne or Brisbane).
If the Gummint donated money to the rebuild it would alienate every supporter of all the other teams.
I too am sick of the word Mandate. However when KR is elected on Sat. even with a hostile senate if it occurs he should just wait until the masses really get p..ss.d at the LIbs. After all wont Labor have a Mandate.
I grew up in Scarborough but now live in Melbourne. I was shocked that WA could turn to Howard and then I looked at the sample size. 400 – let’s see – that would be meaningful if West Australia had a population of perhaps half a million. In Perth alone 400 would be + or – around 7%, but over the whole state, wow. In other words, maybe my former state mates are not as selfish as would first appear.