I am informed via comments that Sky News has reported on a Westpoll survey to be published in tomorrow’s West Australian, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 two-party lead in WA. This compares with 53-47 to Labor’s favour in Westpoll’s last statewide survey on October 6, displaying a volatility which has been fairly typical of the series. The Liberals’ primary vote lead is 47 per cent to 38 per cent. The sample is usually around 400. The Coalition’s two-party vote in WA at the 2004 election was 55.4 per cent, so the latest figure still points to a swing which if uniform would win Labor Stirling and Hasluck. Between the two statewide polls, Westpoll produced a survey from Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan on October 20, each with a sample of 400, which had the Liberals ahead in all three. In other poll news, Lateline tells us that a Galaxy marginal seats poll to be published on Sunday will show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, although it’s hard to say what this means exactly until we know which seats were covered.
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Galaxy also says Howard is in line to lose his seat.
I happened past a campaign stall today and saw a poster of Kevin Rudd.
?is it my imagination or maybe it’s deliberate design but I can’t help notice his increasingly striking resemblance to Yoda.
Perhaps he knows the ways of the Force.
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Adam Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Yay I have now boothmapped 100 seats
A labour of Sisyphus, no doubt! Now for the nit picks.
You have got the East and West labels for Gippsland the wrong way round. Lakes Entrance has 2 booths this time, as opposed to one last time… I know because I’ve spent a week doing HTV rosters!
Can you spare some of your excess volunteers?
Wheres the latest Galaxy Poll!!!
Come on fella’s… upload it already!
548,
They are wrong wrong wrong
……. NSW and QLD might do it on their own. Don’t know what they were smoking when they said only 2 in QLD 
This contradicts the Newspoll in the marginals which showed QLD with the biggest swings, and NSW with the smallest.
This Galaxy suggests the complete opposite.
But, we don’t know what this actually means until we know what seats they polled. For the Newspoll it was the 18 most marginal government seats, minus Stirling, Hasluck, Bass, Braddon and Solomon.
I don’t believe NSW will deliver 10, but nor do I believe Qld will deliver as little as two and Vic none at all. We’ll have to wait for the details, I guess.
So that’d be the poll with the Greens having a 11% Primary?
Do we expect another ACN this coming week?
So the polls are unanimous then – even the consistently conservative Galaxy. 18 would seem the minimum number of seats Labor will win.
We still have the Morgan poll of marginals to come?
Galaxy already polled in Queensland a month or two ago showing only a modest swing in the Qld marginals. Nothing new there.
Um, did anyone by The Australian today? I’d like to see the raw figures on the marginal seat Newspoll.
It probably won’t appear on The Oz’s website until Sunday night or Monday morning.
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Maybe Galaxy polled Longman and Petrie?
I doubt I will ever buy The Australian again.
I think Galaxy is overstating NSW and understating Queensland personally but I’m only going by what other polls have shown. 4000 is a big ample I must say.
Sorry William, shall obey and be self-controlled from now on … BTW is it allowed to quote the Glugs of Gosh on this blog? Seems apropos all the way from 1914 to 2007 …
“3 in Tas and SA”
Sorry, minimum answer was 4 (3 SA + Bass).
Low cred poll.
I will post a scan of The Australian’s tables shortly.
The betting markets can’t be reacting to the Galaxy poll, there must be something else we’re not seeing that looks bad for the Rodent.
Here comes the narrowing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I dont recall anyone saying the narrowing had to occur a month out. A week willl do just nicely.
Thank God for Galaxy, the first of several pools that show THE COALTION IS CLEARLY IN CONTENTION.
There will be a lot of egg on faces on the 25th (e.g Labor to win 100+ seats, Hah!)
Just what I have been saying.
ShowsOn, I bought the Oz today – it’s you people and all of your constant references to the bloody thing that made me do it. Shame!
What would you like to know?
570 kelly and your evidence to back up this claim would be…?
Not really Lefty E. Polling has been showing Braddon extremely close for the past month or so so it’s not unbelievable that the Libs could be in front. Shows how a shameful act of vote-buying can go down doesn’t it?
We’ll also see in the Tasmanian poll that gets released tomorrow whether Braddon is going to stick with the Libs.
Actually, it said 3 in Tas/NT I think. Plus another 3 in SA.
Given that Galaxy is the most favourable to the coalition this is not a good result for them.
Thanks.
Just ALL the figures for the Newspoll marginal seat poll.
It’s OK, I can wait for William to post a scan.
I guess Rudd will have to spend most of next week in QLD, even in Bonner and Moreton. Damn, I’m worried again!
Adam @ 564 here in Bogansville, like I said, there’s not a treeware alternative to the GG… but I have resisted for 2 weeks now and I (reluctantly) have to agree you’re right – don’t feed the bastards, maybe they will starve …
If Galaxy think that Bonner and Moreton are the only seats that will fall and that Qld will return Libs 53 Lab 47 tpp they have rocks in their heads.
Newpoll has a sample of 3000+ that is the one that means anything.
ruawake, didn’t someone say the Galaxy had a sample of 4000?
There’s a tremendous difference between intelligence and rat cunning.
The seats in Queensland polled by Galaxy will be different from those polled by Newspoll. In this way this poll will actually be very useful to see which seats labor will pick up in the sunshine state and which one’s they will fall short in.
If that is only a 5% swing in the Marginals then a whole bunch of safe seats are going to fall.
You can check the Qld arrgegate polling for the year here and it has a consistent very large swing to Labor.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-16nov.pdf
Kelly gets excited over a poll showing the Libs losing and their leader going south. Each to his/her own I suppose.
So newspoll of marginals released today can therefore just be ignored because a Galaxy poll has also shown the ALP will win?
ruwake I’m in Moreton and it’;s definitely gone. I also have money and effort on Petrie, Ryan, Longman, Bowman, Herbert – can’t say they’ll all go, but I reckon 4/5 will change – the challenge is, which one will the Libs hold of these five?
10 seats in NSW in Galaxy – 59-41 in Vic according to Newspoll. Something is wrong with these figures – they are all over the shop once you drill down from the National.
Yes kina, but we know Lilley is swinging something crazy from the Galaxy poll they did. There’s no reason to believe the swings will be isolated in Labor seats… but I wouldn’t bet the house on huge gains in Qld.
Plus if all the safer seats swung towards Labor but stuck with the Liberals on small margins this might produce an outcome seen in the aggregate. Remember the aggregates have a MoE of around 4%.
Channel 9 said the Galaxy poll interviewed 4000.
yes gerr
rats don’t respond to dog whistles 
ShowsOn, I’ll leave it up to Billy Baggins. He’ll do it better than I can.
For me the interest is the diffs between Newspoll and Nielsen. Nielsen looks better for NSW and Vic but Newspoll better for SA and Qld. In this case, Newspoll looks as if it errs on the side of caution.
Obviously, differences in which seats were sampled comes into play.
For the South Australian fans, Newspoll mentions Mayo. Woo hoo!
we have been wondering why the only outliers are favouring ALP
Gary will continue to deny the narrowing until he cries into his cornflakes on Sunday morning.
Sample of 4000.
Its the trend, you peanut. And a whole week to go.
Wasn’t it Galaxy that predicted the demise of Beattie the week that last year’s state election was called. He went on to win 59 seats out of an 82 seat parliament.
None of these polls have been good news for the coalition. They are only debating the size of a Labor win.
Kelly – a trend with one poll? Get real and stop with the abuse.
If you were a ALP person this poll is a reminder not to rest until 6:00 next Saturday for the Liberals wont give up until 6:00
“If that is only a 5% swing in the Marginals then a whole bunch of safe seats are going to fall.”
Exactly. Galaxy are predicting 18 marginal seats to go across to Labor. But what about the second tier seats with margins of 5 – 10%?
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