I am informed via comments that Sky News has reported on a Westpoll survey to be published in tomorrow’s West Australian, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 two-party lead in WA. This compares with 53-47 to Labor’s favour in Westpoll’s last statewide survey on October 6, displaying a volatility which has been fairly typical of the series. The Liberals’ primary vote lead is 47 per cent to 38 per cent. The sample is usually around 400. The Coalition’s two-party vote in WA at the 2004 election was 55.4 per cent, so the latest figure still points to a swing which if uniform would win Labor Stirling and Hasluck. Between the two statewide polls, Westpoll produced a survey from Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan on October 20, each with a sample of 400, which had the Liberals ahead in all three. In other poll news, Lateline tells us that a Galaxy marginal seats poll to be published on Sunday will show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, although it’s hard to say what this means exactly until we know which seats were covered.
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Kelly a trend from one poll is like saying Geelong are on a grandfinal winning streak
No steve, both Newspoll and Galaxy got very close to the 2006 Queensland state result. Both had the ALP primary at 48% and the Coalition at 38%, Newspoll 2PP 55/45 and Galaxy 56.5/44.5.
Galaxy were .7% off in 2004.
Perhaps the most accurate.
If Galaxy says only 18 seats to Labor with a week to go, no wonder this ripple of consternation from Labor hacks.
Can someone explain what the hell is going on with the galaxy poll? And what it means??? What it is?
Signed
Confused
I think the big thing the Newspoll showed is that the swings Labor is getting in seats with margins below 6% is basically the same as the national average swings.
It all depends on what seats they polled. We won’t know until the figures go up late tonight.
kelly Says: “Its the trend, you peanut. And a whole week to go.”
umm, listen here peanut, there is NO TREND when looking at one poll. Buy a book and learn something! Sheesh!
Apart from Wentworth, Deakin, Bennenlong and Stirling are the only seats under 5% that I see the Liberals maybe holding
Big Blind Dave,
yeah but would you back Geelong for next year’s flag. Thought so.
“Galaxy says only 18 seats to Labor with a week to go”
No, it shows only 18 seats out of the marginals. There’s a difference. In every election there are safe seats that fall too.
Kelly settle down, a case of possibilities mixed up with probabilities.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/17/the-final-countdown/
602 kelly – Galaxy are very good at making a poll sound close sometime out from an election and then on the death knell get it just right.
Did Newspoll survey Deakin?
ESJ @ 588, you are straining at gnats, perhaps you should try swallowing a Labor victory now, before the landslisde, which may be even less palatable (unless you happen to be partial to deep throat).
Kelly this Galaxy poll is great news to Labor. All the seats we want in SA, TAS and NT plus heaps in NSW. If its the same seats they polled last time for Queensland then this is nothing to get excited about, It showed the same thing. They polled Bonner, Moreton, Hinkler and Longman from memory. So Hinkler and Longman stay with the coalition but Blair and Herbert, polled by Newspoll fall.
I guess Kelly et. al. you should be grabbing abit of that Liberal money at Centrebet.
ROFL, still searching for a “narrowing” with a trend of 1 eh!
Kelly reminds me of something Disraeli once said: “He was distinguished for ignorance – for he had only one idea and that was wrong.”
Newspoll is a survey of 18 marginal seats. It also extrapolates the swing across those seats to other ‘marginals’ in each state.
So, for NSW, Parra, Wentworth, Lindsay, Eden-M, Benny, and Dobell tipped to fall due to 6.7 swing to Labor, and if that swing was state-wide Page, Paterson, Cowper and Robertson would also fall.
For SA, the swing in marginals is 7.8. This would take in the polled marginals of Kingston, Wakefield, Makin and Boothby, as expected, but also Sturt. I think the Oz just put in Mayo for a bit of a stir. It needs 13.6, so 7.8 won’t quite do it. Was a bit of fun, however.
Vic is an 8.3, so Deakin, McMillan, Corry and LaTrobe, but perhaps McEwan and Gipps. Another stir from Newspoll – Higgins needs 8.8. It’s a knife-edge for the Less Popular Costello.
Qld will be a bloodbath.
Yep, Noocat the ALP takes 18 for the main course, and gets a few more nice fat ones for desert.
Kelly
It would be a very safe bet to say Geelong will finish worse than they did this year.
That is because even if they win the GF, trends suggest the margin will not be higher becasue all the evidence is that this was an unusually high margin.
All the evidence in polling is the Libs will loose- question is by how much. Certainly they have far less support from the Australian public than last election.
I think the Liberals only hold 17 seats under 5% with Deakin and McMillan being just over 5%
To extend the footy analogy- this is like Carlton 45 points down half time in the 1970 grannie. The victory will be all the sweeter because of the doubters and the supreme cockiness of the opponents.
Colliwobbles are settling in.
Colliwobbles are not settling in. This poll is great for Labor. Get it through your thick heads!
Thanks to Possum for declaring GAME OVER.
This has been a great campaign.
cheers & beers
#
490
wysiwyg Says:
November 17th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
IQ is a measure of the speed of classic thinking – it does not deal well with people who think in terms of the big picture (a.k.a. visual processing). Irrespective of your opinion of JWH – he does think about big pictures. We can have a valid argument about his end-game, but playing around with IQ numbers is missing the reality.
kelly Says: “The victory will be all the sweeter because of the doubters and the supreme cockiness of the opponents. Colliwobbles are settling in.”
Oh dear, I think you’re right! Throw out the polls, the stats, the trends, the facts, the whole lot, kelly is RIGHT god-damn-it! …oh no… I think I just shat my undies…. oh the humanity!
Actually Kelly has a point- the Libs are performing thier socks off and they have found a big last minute scandal to gain the upperhand with…oops…the regional rorts thing is about them isn’t it? sorry my bad, never mind
Of these seats the ALP could afford to not win 4 and still form a minority government.
Ms Twain you speak the irrefutable unnonsensical truth. At 7pm East-Coast curtain-saving time it will be all very finely balanced (with a bit of a rush from SA at 7:30). Then along comes Qld with 10-12 seats and oh boy, it’s all over… (hope all my apostrophes were accurate).
Big Blind Dave, George Megalogenis puts it well in his blog today:
Let’s take Vaile’s suggestion of a scrutiny blackout to its illogical conclusion.
Why stop at the Australian National Audit Office? What about the Reserve Bank? Shouldn’t it go on holidays? What about the courts?
Vaile has one more problem. Guess who said this?
“I suppose what we have been trying to achieve in this report is encapsulated in a comment that the now Prime Minister, the then leader of the Opposition, made in June 1995 when he said: ‘We will establish a completely independent Auditor-General so that a fearless and authoritative surveillance of government departments can occur without intimidation from the executive’.”
It was Vaile, then a humble backbencher speaking in parliament on October 10, 1996, after the tabling of Public Accounts committee report No346.
And the title of that committee report which Vaile helped draft? “Guarding the independence of the Auditor-General.”
George,
Print that, stick it to your monitor and read it about 9.30pm next Saturday.
Suggest you also pick up a jumbo pack of daddy-diapers.
I have heard JHo has the rabbit he needs……..he has organized a meeting with Brian Burke at Scores.
Meanwhile back at the Lodge……………….
“This was supposed to be the Summer of John”
Just watching ‘Gardening Australia’. Talking about ‘asthma weed’, apparently has a common name of …. “Kirribilli Curse’ . Should be reported to your local council for compulsory removal!
The following seats are held by less than 5% with my predictions based soley on nazal gazing
Bass (gone)
Braddon (gone)
Parramatta (gone)
Wentworth (Turnbull to hold)
Lindsay (gone)
Eden Monaro (gone)
Bennenlong (?????)
Dobell (TCTC)
Bonner (gone)
Moreton (gone)
Kingston (gone)
Wakefield (gone)
Makin (gone)
Hasluck (gone)
Stirling (TCTC)
Solomon (gone)
The Galaxy figures to June certainly won’t give the Tories any heart.
Kelly @ 620 [Colliwobbles are settling in.]
LOL they are indeed and watching the desperation and wild claims of you lot this week is going to be hilarious. Swinging between increasing frantic moments of desperate delusion and denial back into reality and manic depression and so on back and forth.
Enjoy the roller-coaster ride cos I’l certainly enjoy watching it LOL.
My God – Qld is going to be a blood bath for the LNP. The smaller swings in the marginals leaves room for some huge swings concentrated in LNP safe seats. Most of those marginals will fall and now it seems a whole bunch of safe seats in Qld.
A week out with the LNP self destructing – this could be a record for Labor.
Newspoll, AC Nielsen and Morgan all point to 53-55/45 result and that will be a definate victory no matter how you want to break it up.
Sorry
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/06/12/galaxy-queensland-poll/
Kelly’s anger suggests he/she really believes the game is over. Anyone confident of a win doesn’t get this uptight.
Wake me if a poll actually predicts the ALP will lose.
Glad to see no one’s getting nervous about this one.
One need only have squiz at good ole ozpolitics http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
to know that there is reason Galaxy is Howard’s favourite poll.
If a week out, looking at the marginals, even they see the ALP having a 2 seat buffer (and when only looking at marginals) then it’s all over.
And does it really show Howard losing Bennelong? If so, then forget the 18 seats – that will be the story.
“Of these seats the ALP could afford to not win 4 and still form a minority government.”
Wow.
And i thought it was going to be an absolute landslide.
kelly Says: “George, Print that, stick it to your monitor and read it about 9.30pm next Saturday. Suggest you also pick up a jumbo pack of daddy-diapers.”
kelly, I’ll do one better, stay online on the night and I’ll read it back to you…
Howard on tv now……where did he get his teeth from ? Mr Ed!
scaper long ago … I would be careful using “Katter” and “hung” in the same para, people might get the wrong idea …
In any case I think your big scheme is to do with modifying the GST. Mark Latham would have countenanced this perhaps, but if you suggest to Rudd you may find yourself in some Gulag via Uluru – be very very careful
… they’re not so dumb as to raise the spectre of annihilations past, scaper …
Go the bananas, wysiwyg #626. Now if they’d only take up daylight saving all would be right with the world.
Not anger Bruce, quiet satisfaction.
“Howard ups media events after pressure from journos”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093778.htm
Mmmm, sounds like a REALLY confident coconut there, doesn’t it?
No, that’s anger.
wyswig,
Thanks for the dirty talk but I dont provide that sort of community service but I am sure you may be able to find a user pays site to provide what you are looking for.
Simply put there are huge variations between polls in State level figures, not sure what it means but Newspoll last week was showing NSW as a nothing swing and Galaxy as a tsunami and the reverse with Victoria.
I dont know what this means – but it suggests the narrative that there is an extraordinary level of disengagement is quite true.
I suggest reading the Latham article today, I know he is the Labor party’s cassandra but there is a lot of truth to his analysis about polls.
I guess it all comes down to what Galaxy define as a “marginal seat”. Most of the coalition held seats in QLD aren’t “marginal” in the traditional meaning of the word.
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