I am informed via comments that Sky News has reported on a Westpoll survey to be published in tomorrow’s West Australian, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 two-party lead in WA. This compares with 53-47 to Labor’s favour in Westpoll’s last statewide survey on October 6, displaying a volatility which has been fairly typical of the series. The Liberals’ primary vote lead is 47 per cent to 38 per cent. The sample is usually around 400. The Coalition’s two-party vote in WA at the 2004 election was 55.4 per cent, so the latest figure still points to a swing which if uniform would win Labor Stirling and Hasluck. Between the two statewide polls, Westpoll produced a survey from Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan on October 20, each with a sample of 400, which had the Liberals ahead in all three. In other poll news, Lateline tells us that a Galaxy marginal seats poll to be published on Sunday will show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, although it’s hard to say what this means exactly until we know which seats were covered.
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Kelly, I’ve never predicted an ALP landslide. I think the median prediction on this site was in the low 80s for a seat count for the ALP. And that’s from a very pro-Labor base.
Has the Liberal campaign descended to an all new level of stupidity now?
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/detail/20071116_UnionBossesCantWaittogettheirHandsonGovernment.php
Whatever you think of Ken Case’s actions yesterday the video footage essentially shows two “thuggish-looking” security guards heavy handing a guy who appears to be peacefully out of the room.
The premise is that Unions can’t wait to get their hand on Government but the imagery is someone trying to get their hands on Howard.
To me this gives away that they truly think that they are born to rule.
LTEP – I can vouch for you. I had you down for a Coalition win.
Kelly sounds like Mark Williams (port adelaide)
Either a lot of “commentators” here don’t hail from Queensland or the amber ale is flowing too strongly already but nonsense talk of ” gaining 6-16″ seats in the sunshine state is just folly.
The ALP currently hold 6 out of 29 Federal Seats:
That leaves 23.
No man-made WMD could unseat Bob Katter in Kennedy, that leaves 22.
The ALP is not making a dent on the four Nats seats, and are outsiders for the new seat of Flynn, that leaves 17.
Now suggesting 16 wins is just plain dumb. You mean 1 Lib seat in QLD and the rest ALP???!!!!
6 seats net gain for the ALP is possible, though betting markets are only showing them favourites in 6 seats total. Rankin, Oxley, Moreton, Lilley, Herbert, Griffith.
So if there is a single net gain to be had in these seats in Qld, it appears the betting market doesn’t know about it.
I actually predicted a gain of 20 seats for Labor. Hell, the Galaxy poll suggests 18. Hardly a landslide prediction.
Marktwain, Yes about the newspoll, but you can’t extrapolate to other seats – especially as we don’t yet have the numbers!
But all things being equal, looks like time for espresso doppio – you know, when naught else hits the spot?
In a Canberra Times article, Jack Waterford includes this intriguing sentence -
“The party’s political machinery has also been closely, and improperly, hooked into the information and intelligence data properly gathered (for other purposes) by government agencies in a way that may be difficult for the new government to disentangle.”
Anyone here know what this is about?
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/tired-tactics-leave-howards-message-lost-in-translation/1088100.html
I think Most posters here wuold say Labor 80-85 seats as a mean.
Gawd if we are looking at landslide really really early I’ll need to break open the fizz well before the sun goes over the yard arm. It will be ‘must see TV’ but I’ll have this site up and running too. (And if Dennis is right, i’ll be drinking even earlier…..jokin’)
646 [quiet satisfaction.]
Rowdy Tory grumpiness more like it.
Well you can certainly add MORETON to the ALP column.
It’s gone, gone, gone.
BMWofVictoria@598
The Tories if they loose, will challenge every possible seat, the electoral process, whatever. They are using the Rove/Bush manual to elections, where you loose but you still get the job.
Looking at the current seats wouldn’t a Labor victory of 80-85 seats qualify as a landslide anyway?
I think it would.
EdStJ, rather than read last week’s Newspoll, have a look at this morning’s poll of marginals in NSW, Vic, Qld and SA (aka the interesting states). Then have a look at the Nielsen state-by-state (except Tas), also published this morning. They are quite similar. The purported Galaxy says a 10-seat gain in NSW, as do Newspoll and Nielsen, which I don’t quite believe. But then compare Galaxy’s minor result in Queensland, which I also don’t quite believe.
Lesson to all is – buy a bloody newspaper!
GO, the betting markets aren’t showing the ALP in front in Bonner?
GO
What about Bonner, Blair, Herbert (check sportingbet). I could go on. You are talking crud.
I wouldn’t buy The GG if it was the last paper on Earth.
@668
Gary Bruce
What if the Supermarket ran out of toilet paper?
669 Gerr – I’d be forced to buy the Herald Sun, which is all that it is good for.
Queensland betting
Bonner ALP 1.04; coalition write your own price.
http://qld.betelection.com/
What’s GO going on about then? Some special conservative-leaning betting site?
Oops – last paper on Earth. I would use a leaf, anything but buy The GG. It’s not worth sh…ing on.
We are beginning to see the narrowing
……. Centrebet has Bennelong at 1.52/2.35 
655
Generic Oracle
6 in NSW + 3 in Vic + 3 in SA + 3 in Tas/NT + 1 in WA (on extremely conservative estimates, giving some to one state and taking away from the other) means Qld only has to deliver exactly nothing for an ALP victory. Even you would agree that Qld will deliver a bit more. As a long-suffering Bananabender, anything more than one equals a bloodbath.
On the back of this crushing news from Galaxy that the ALP will… errr… win, centrebet odds for the LNP have come all the way in to … oh wait, they’re still $4.60.
(And btw Maxine HAS come in – to $2.35; from about 2.75 earlier today I think)
Read this on Oz Elections forum
“Talking of boxes, Howard’s campaign office is next door to a funeral parlour! That’s convenient!”
kevin rudd wants Labor candidates to do so much doorknocking in the next week that “their knuckles are bleeding”. what a clown.
Channel 7 Brisbane says Labor will only win Bonner and Moreton according to Galaxy in Sunday Mail tomorrow.
ABC News Sydney has just reported that the Poll out tomorrow will show a similar result as the 54%-46% Newspoll on marginals.
HH @525, been watching sportingbet. Odds on Paterson are closing more than I would have thought. Probably just responding to the marginal poll.
At this stage Maxine looks a safer bet, I think.
Not sure why so many anti-howards are so happy to gloat. He’s r00ted our country over for the last 11 1/2 years for his own conceited greed and ambition. No amount of swing against him and the Libs can ever repay for how much Australia has lost because of the vile-racist-sneaky-little-lying rodents attacks on all that is good about this country.
Oh my, it’s a sad day and sign of the times when coalition supporters actually get excited with a poll showing they will lose all marginal seats lol.
The point is that ALL polls of all persuasions persistently and consistently show a minimum of 16 seats falling to Labor to quite easily.
Considering this Galaxy was taken only in marginals it is not surprising to see a tighter contest than state based as the marginals is where the Libs firewall strategy has allocated all their campaign activity.
Considering these polls show the Libs losing ALL of those marginals in spite of the firewall strategy campaign suggests very strongly to me they will be slaughtered in the next tier up of 5-10% safe seats.
To me this marginal Galaxy shows the total failure of the lib firewall strategy and indicates it will be a landslide of historic proportions.
Rolling average TPP for ALP in Qld since January.
54,54,52,56,54,53
Labor primary
49,47,46,52,50,49
2-11 Nov Labor Primary average 49%
compared with 34.8% in 2004 up 14 points with LNP Primary down 6 points. Doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence if you are LNP.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-16nov.pdf
Yes kelly, how stupid of him to tell his troops to get out and work hard.
What is he thinking?? Doesn’t he know it’s time to coast to victory???!!!
@682 slack boy well said.
Anyone checked centerbet as of now –
Labor 1.17
Libs 5.10
JHo wants Liberal candidates to do so much door knocking in the next week that “their Prada shoes are worn out”. what a clown.
slackboy @ 682.
I agree.
I also think that all of the gloating here is a very bad look – one of the most offensive traits of Howard & his team of supporters over those years has been their arrogance & contempt they hold for others.
You’d hope that if an ALP victory eventuates, the ALP supporters don’t do the same to their opponents.
Forget the public polling for a moment. Look at where Rudd and Howard have been over the past couple of days.
Rudd heads to Bowman (8.9 p/c), Dawson (10 p/c), Sturt (5 p/c plus) and heads over to the west. He’s done two functions in Stirling in the past week and a half.
Howard’s visit after his launch was to Dickson (almost 10 p/c), then to Leichhardt (another 10 p/c), and today took in Greenway and his own seat.
They’re all Liberal held seats, some with huge margins. Now there is a theory that Rudd’s trying to play with Howard’s head, but you don’t play silly buggers this close to the election. You focus where there is movement, where your polling says there’s a chance or you’re in trouble.
Through five weeks of campaigning, Rudd has visited just a couple of ALP seats (including his own). All of the rest have been coalition-held, some with substantial margins (hell, he’s even been to Page twice). Howard has been to two ALP seats – Griffith (for his launch) and Parramatta (notionally ALP). Even his trip to WA was more about protecting Stirling and Hasluck than trying to win Cowan and Swan. And he’s yet to get to Tasmania.
Rudd speaks to the Press Club on Wednesday for his last major address, while Howard speaks Thursday. This limits how much travel they can do.
The public polling is giving an insight into what the internal polling is saying, and the travels of Howard and Rudd is a physical manifestation of that internal polling.
686 gerr – WOW – that must have happened in the last 5 minutes – when I was on there it was $4.60.
How much cash would be needed to move it that much? Or is it a case that no one was biting at $4.60 so they put them out to try and get some takers?
Word has it the Coalition are about to be scratched in the betting market…
slackboy the reason I’m hoping that Howard and pals go down in the most ignominious way possible is two fold.
One is cultural. It will take the steam out of those people who are pushing a selfish “I’m alright, bugger you” society.
The other is it will give Rudd more freedom to try to undo some of the bloody minded back-to-the-50s social engineering Howard has inflicted on us.
Anyone?
What are the order of states that are counted on election night?
OFF TOPIC
Just wondering what everyone does election night, do you watch the coverage with friends or family? What is best coverage in everyones opinions? Do you do a nudie run if the election falls your way
Again a serious punter might put some cash on the coalition for shits and giggles
as an over the horizon longshot.
kelly Says: “kevin rudd wants Labor candidates to do so much doorknocking in the next week that “their knuckles are bleeding”. what a clown.”
I love clowns, with their big shoes and crazy hair – don’t you love it how they light up a room? They’re soooo cool!
Maxine also in to 2.35 with centrebet
DIManson. I don’t have any knowledge of what that sentence may mean, but found it sufficiently intriguing to read the article. It’s almost as though he’s writing a post mortem. I also wonder what it could mean and that if there’s been something dodgy going on, whether someone who knows, might blow the whistle, as a way of enduring protection. Check Possum’s latest piece.
Anyone seeing any election advertising on TV tonight? Very little here in Adelaide.
I reckon the sudden change in Centrebet odds is a pre-emptive strike. They know there will be a deluge of cash on Labor and they have to guard against a mauling.
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