Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
678 Comments
Bizarre analysis from Morgan.
Everything points to a landslide not a close result.
This poll has some creditability as it does reflect the strong pro-labor feeling here on the ground here in Brisbane. It means overall on this poll that Labor can win up to 41 seats. Something that has indicative most of this year.
All of these marginals are becoming nonsensical. What is the point of polling a random 100 people from 80,000.
GO THE RUDDSTAR
! 
! 
!!!!
Why do these pollsters insist on doing stupid things like provide running commentary on whether a seat will fall that’s on less than a 6% margin when the MoE on the seat results is at least 15%!
The State by State MoE’s are between 5.5 and 10%!
A 14% swing in QLD is beyond absurd.
William, I think the swing in WA was actually towards the coalition.
BillBowe says “It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.”
It’s the soft voter deflater wot does it!
Why do all these pundits keep inventing scenarios in which Rudd wins 55-45 TPP but still loses the election? It’s almost a statistical impossibility. No Govt has ever been formed with less than 49%TPP.
Hey Poss, why not ring Gazza Morgan up and ask him why he does these things? His mobile number is at the bottom of the main press release, while a glowing reference to your Marsupialness is at the very bottom.
I’d do, but I’m too stupid to understand things like MoEs.
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
That’s right. With 51% it’s reasonably sure a seat majority will be achieved. Because the swing is never uniform. That’s the key.
Now we are in the Kill Zone, so to speak, are we not into the process of product differentiation for those who conduct polls?
A bit like Rudd, who struck out to claim his title last week, are we not now witnessing the various poll companies use similar marketing tactics to brand and identify themselves as the actuall poll draws near?
A bit like a holding company, News has a number of businesses producing polls – newspoll and galaxy
and under that great murdoch mantra of “creative tension” here we see them positioing themselves to be “credible” come the result…
and either way, rupert has a horse to back come next time…
I suspect that pollsters now are in the business of marketing their brand identity, and they are hoping that as the final numbers fall, they will have enough data to point to to show their prospective clients (ie, brand managers for commercial companies) that “they were right”
and by the way, whoEVER the hell is david briggs or martin o’shaunessy other then a spruiker for a product….and not very good ones at that…
australians sense a change is needed…whether they grab the future is another thing…
and i still think hartcher is right: not since 1996 have the polls shown such consistent and DEADLY intent
(don’t) sleep well john, janette, peter et al
Geez I hope Roy Morgon has put some of his money on Fawcett in Wakefield – he’s paying $8.25!
Actually, I think you need about 51.5% if you’re coming from opposition, because of the encumbancy factor.
Get real – I think its called covering your arse
From the GG
“Hospital board funding under attack
The Coalition is under fire for not declaring the cost of its proposal to create boards to run the nation’s public hospitals.”
Should counteract the whinge about Labor not submitting its policies when Tip wanted them. They just can’t take a trick at the moment.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22778757-601,00.html
The Oz looks like putting a foot onto the bottom step of the Rudd bus:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22778757-601,00.html
Thanks Boll, I’ve corrected that now.
Lets be honest – Any system which allowed a 56% TPP NOT to win the election would be a fundamentally broken system. That would be a margin of more than 2 million australians not getting the party they voted for.
Possum: posted this before, but more relevant here.
“Roy Morgan, hang your head in shame.
Making any comment on individual electorates is ridiculous as the MOE on each is 14%!!!!
After choosing 50 from each of the 22 marginal electorates, they must have chosen an average of 5(!!) from the other 127. Even averaged out the MOE on this additional 600 is 4%
The whole 1670 sample must be a very biassed sample skewed towards the heavily targetted marginals, making the 2% overall MOE meaningless.
NB: all Maths Stats teachers and lecturers: save the comments accompaying this survey. What a great exam question or assignment!”
Poss and other Psephs
If I understand this, the examination of individual marginals makes no sense. The statement of seats to fall looks far too low for the overall swing. The samples must be tiny. Surely you can’t take the results seat by seat for this many marginals. Shouldn’t you apply the overall trend for each State to get any meaningful sample. Am I misunderstanding something?
CleoBassett (and Poss)
Thanks that clarifies it; I’m not crazy. Gary is.
any news if JWH will be on Rove tonight?
Now that I understand it, doesn’t this poll spell landslide against the coalition? If the overall swing is to 56/44 2PP, even subtracting MoE, it holds in the marginals, and the swing is trongest in Qld, NSW and SA, where the Coalitions most vulnerable seats are, surely they are going to lose at least 20 seats in those 3 States alone?
Anybody who seriously thinks that Labor can lose the election while getting 56% of the vote is hallucinating.
Are they just making claims it will be close to sustain interest? Is it a bit like the way sports commentators make claims that games might tighten up. Eg at AFL halftime “If Port get the first few goals they are right back in this”. Well I hope it is that close
Spiros. Perhaps that is why Howard is playing the drug card. He has noticed what is going on in the campaign bunker when they read the latest polls. “The blue pills make our chances look better”.
Spiros, you are spot on. I believe based on the evidence and all the stats available that Gary Morgan is hallucinating…
Socrates – this is just another poll that has results which are just like the last 60 odd polls.
I don’t understand why Morgan just doesn’t say the results in each seat.
It’s possible the results in certain seats could be so huge to disguise lower results in other seats… but it seems unlikely. It really is a useless poll unless they state why they think the Coalition will hold certain seats.
Do they mean the Coalition is in front in Bennelong, Wentworth and Dobell? Or are they just saying it’s close and the Coalition could fall over the line? How do they know the Queensland results are effected by the ‘halo effect’?
Even if the bottom prediction of 14 seats arises, I’d predict Labor would form government with the help of Katter and Windsor.
Jason Donovan is on Rove. Perhaps Howard could arrest him when Donovan talks about his drug use and quarantine his income? Seriously, the Rodent is gnawing his insides out now.
Poss,
Yes of course you are right. It is within MOE of the 54.5 average you calculated. That must be why I like it. Thanks
What does this mean?
8.8% swing to the ALP in the seven key marginal seats surveyed. The swing required to lose each is Parramatta 0.9%, Wentworth 2.5%, Lindsay 2.9%, Eden-Monaro 3.3%, Bennelong 4%, Dobell 4.8% and Page 5.5%.
Despite the 7.7% swing to the ALP, the swing is not uniform and the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth.
Is the swing 8.8% or 7.7% or am I missing something?
Actually, I just read a report that the Rodent is off to Perth. Looks like he won’t be on Rove.
“We are entering the decisive quarter. whoever wins this, wins the game…
this is the most important moment in the entirety of eternity”
Paul Kelly
Gee the green vote in the 3 marginals is moving from an average of 3 to nearly 10. If that can swing so much due to who is conducting the poll, who is asked and what is asked then how big will the ALP win or will it loose yet again. this last week is crucial
They don’t have a big enough sample in any individual electorate to say anything (intelligent)!
BTW,
I was just hoping that William can set up threads for the various:
- woeful media coverage and/or story (sorry, I’ve banged on about this before)
- hopeless quote
- “representational quote”, ie the quote you have when the kelly;s and shanahans et al won’t actually own up to what they are on about or their own pretentiousness..
I think it can be summed up in the words of a wise (and very rich) man “Your opinions are only as good as your information”. And when your information is crap…
35 – Kelly is really full of it isnt he. Just about on a par with his recent ‘in-depth’ analysis of the public intellectuals.
I heard the gentleman from Galaxy this morning refer to the Kinnock versus Major election in the UK where the polls “All got it wrong.”
i suggest we may hear more of this in the coming week. What might be useful to note for workplace discussion to counter the trolls regarding this exemplar is :
1. non compulsory voting in UK meant that the group polled was not per se a sample of the group that voted.
2.the first past the post system in uk meant that votes to third parties did not flow back to labour.
3.Kinnock represented “Old Labour” perhaps more like Kim than Kev.
4.And that the subsequent Blair win is arguably more akin to the current situation.
Notably Kinnock has gone on to be a respected Euro politician and ambassador, i personally hope that Big Kim gets a chance to do something similar where he can make a contribution and enjoy a suitable reward for his many years of hard work.
Just saw a Coalition individual add for David Fawcett (sitting Liberal, Wakefield, +0.7% margin) on the Adelaide Nine news. I am amazed they are still putting money into that. Would it be from the candidates own local funds?
Socrates Richardsons is all running similar adds
41 Hugh Briss- I heard the reason the polls got that one wrong was that everyong polled was too ashamed to admit to a human being they would vote Tory but in the secrecy of the ballot box with no-one looking they snuck the little 1 next to Tory!
Does Kelly regard himself as a “public intellectual”? No, he’s so much better than that.
Rove just did a Ting Fart parody ad for tonight’s show – quite funny
Enough with those darn ads. They need to counter the interest rate ads with either Rudd and the monitor sitting on the desk “Another scare campaign from Mr Howard…” OR one of their dark and scary “But do you know who had the highest interest rates in the last 30 years?”
Get Real where did Paul Kelly write/say that?
Can anyone honestly understand what Paul Kelly says? It all sounds like gobbledegook to me.
Socrates – If the Libs pulled the funding plug on Johnson in Ryan, they would have turned off the tap and stopped the Fawcett leaking funds a while ago (ooh – look at all those puns!
)
What is interesting to note that the YR@W ( now blatantly ALP stooges) has decided to copy the ALP HTV card in Kingston which puts me at 3. A long way from the split ticket that they said was going to happen. It shows you have to be a union boss or a right wing SDA/ DLP candidate to get support. I will be sitting back and say told you so when the unions like the AMWU get shafted. At least i can hold my head up high and say i ran for principles not to screw the worker
Socrates – No – I think he was trying to do some of his own product differentiation from the benighted boffins of the left.
Possum,
If you have a decent Johnson, you will always be able to leak.
lol, I know, its just so bad… Why not just say God is a Liberal
Morgan as always is the outlier’s outlier poll. I wonder if the 14-seat gain scenario excludes the so-called “soft Labor” support and the 24-seat gain scenario includes that “soft Labor” support?
I don’t think the Port vs Libs analogy really quite works, since football is a 50/50 contest (theoretically at least) that is only contested on the day, whereas the election is really a long drawn out process, that very sees no significant shift between late campaign voter sentiments and actual election day results. Well, actually it’s mainly cause I’m a left-wing Port supporter and having my team compared to the Libs offends me!
Also, as I said in the previous thread:
“This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on November 15-17, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,670 electors, including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats.”
Would that mean that
(a) his overall Australia-wide sample was not random, and introduced bias into the results, and
(b) that the 95% confidence interval on state polling (assuming ~50 responses per electorate) is 6-8%, making almost all the marginal figures meaningless?
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest marginal seat poll — the telephone Morgan Poll — conducted in 22 carefully selected Liberal marginal seats on November 15-17 (after the both parties launched their campaigns) shows the swing to the ALP is not uniform — it varies by seats and States. For this reason it is too early to call the election, although the ALP is well in front on a simple vote count.”
Even if the swing were uniform in every seat, doing a sample of <50 in 22 marginal seats would produce major variations between seats anyway.
Methinks this is Morgan’s way of covering his arse, after his poll has showed a higher ALP vote than all others for most of the year.
I’m just surprised that Galaxy’s Briggs, whose poll has showed a higher Coalition vote than all others for most of the year, has not engaged in similar arse-covering by more explicitly acknowldeging the possibility of a landslide.
Interesting also the diametrically opposed stories Morgan & Galaxy tell abt 4 Qld marginals, given that 3 of them are common to both polls.
With sample sizes per marginal of only 50, nothing much can be taken on a seat by seat basis from this poll. The state results are also prone to big MoE’s, so once again not much can be taken from each state’s result. What can be taken from this poll is the overall marginal seat result, which shows Labor with 54% 2PP, as opposed to the 46.3% they received in 2004 in those 22 Coalition marginals. That’s a swing of around 7.5% to Labor in those seats, more than enough to deliver Labor the very clear majority of those 22 seats. Labor will be able to pinch seats not surveyed in the Eastern seaboard states, and so romp home. The 54% 2PP is very similar to Newspoll and Galaxy’s overall results for their marginal seat surveys.
Whether the PM is on Rove or not the Libs have apparently taken over channel 10 advertising to the extent that there are at least 2 lib attack ads per break… Got to love the misleading ad on state governments with 80 billion in debt… wonder whether they believe infrastructure can be paid for by states with cash when they control the income stream. It is completely misleading and appalling. The majority of that 80 billion is over the next 10 years in Qld building long term infrastructure projects.
50 bill weller-Perhaps you could ask Overington to get them to change their preferences if you promise to sleep with her. Would make a great front page!
Yes Lukas, you’d assume the launch halo would’ve been there for Galaxy too. It’s all very confusing… but all 3 polling companies picked up similar swings in the marginals to their regular national poll results.
Labor is running a lot of ads on 10 Adelaide.
Was just wondering on the polls etc. At this stage where the leaders go would be based mostly on internal polling, and there would be little point doing any push polling, as that might have them campaigning in the wrong areas.
So wouldn’t tracking Howard and Rudd be a good indicator of the real marginal polling?
LTEP, Galaxy was taken last Sat-Thur, Newspoll Mon-Thur, Morgan Thur-Sat. Morgan’s the most recent one, and the only one that was taken after Rudd’s campaign launch. Only 200 marginal voters in Qld, so not much to be taken out of it. However, if there was a 13.9% swing to Labor in Qld, Labor would gain enough seats in Qld alone.
Wow, 80 billion in “debt”?
Infrastructure SHOULD be paid for with debt, because the benefit is accrued over many years, and therefore the cost should be spread over the generations, and not put on those who initiate it.
Howard is a lying mendacious little rodent who’s misinformed the people of Australia at every opportunity for his own selfish power hungry reasons.
Check the credit rating of Victoria for example. This is good governance, and it’s just plain wrong to say otherwise.
Disgraceful creature…good riddance.
I think we can safely assume a 13.9% swing in QLD is overstating the case a tad.
But let’s have a look
Galazy 2%
Morgan – 13.9%
Newspoll – 8.6%
8.2% is a nice average.
pick up 8 seats? A big ask.
What all of these marginal seat polls have shown is that we really have no idea what the swing is like in the marginal seats is.
I guess that keeps the intrigue in this election…
I am not seeing to many Labor ads, the Libs are having an ads blitz tonight.
Am i mistaken in saying Morgan phone polls usually have a pro-Labor bias which is quite large compared with the other polls?
And am I also right in saying that of all the pollsters, Morgan’s press releases/ websites make by far the least sense?
Galaxy – 2%
Morgan – 13.9%
How crazy is that discrepancy?
But what all the polls are telling us is that ALP is 54 – 56. Others say 52 – 53. But they all look good to me.
You know any pollster who doesn’t put out a national poll on Monday or Tuesday, and instead lamely waits till Friday is not worth spit.
Anybody can call the result of a footy game at the 20 minute mark of the final quarter, but if the polls can’t pick the winner 5-6 days out, they may as well bugger off up their collective margins of error.
My emotions in regards to these marginal seat polls:
Newspoll – pleased
Galaxy – concerned
Morgan – frustrated (at all 3 of them for being so useless!)
I’m just checking my Galaxy swing – I think’s actually 5% – I’m getting confused!!!!
THERE ARE TOO MANY POLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
either way, still yet to see a poll predicting a LNP win.
I think that from all the marginal seat polls we have had that the pollsters have no friggin clue on a seat by seat basis.
Except to say Labor will win most of the marginals.
Channel your inner C/T or H/B this is a “different” election.
Some Qld seats will swing by 13.9% some will swing 4%. The big swings are not in “marginal” seats.
Re: 67
Has Labor run out of $$$ – what the hell is going on?
Can we be so confident that we don’t need to counter the interest rate ad bombardment. I wouldn’t be so sure. Not responding implies Labor are not willing to tackle the issue doesn’t it?
AM @ 67,
The “Whingeing Wendy” Ads are running on reasonable rotation here in Sydney. Expect some more to run after or during Rove on Ch 10.
ding! ding! ding!
Just finished last quarters BAS (late as usual). Good to know that’s the last one the Rodent will get to spend!
William: I posted the last post on the thread that has just died or lapsed:
“ESJ #562:
I’ll take you on for a $100 donation to PB so long as you promise to shut up until William confirms you’ve paid the $100. 53.00-47.00 ALP TPP = draw (and we both give William $20. ALP 53.01% TPP and you pay William $100.”
This was to do with Newspoll national poll Tuesday (or Monday)
The polls, the polls!
Number of polls showing LNP ahead on TPP basis since 1st January 2007: Nil
Number of polls showing ALP ahead by a minimum of 53/47 since 1st January 2007: Every single poll
Feeling better already.
This is why I don’t trust Morgan, nor believe anything they say, because they produce such an incomplete, rubbish analysis. Statements without explanation (e.g. Labor perhaps not winning Wakefield) and vague or dubious concepts such as the “soft vote” idea, leave them open to ridicule.
Just present the numbers, Roy, and let others interpret.
Guys forget the ads on Channel 10 – Rudd is going to get a big free one at 8:30.
78 Paul Hodgson- how does ESJ know that Paul Hodgson isn’t really William just making sure someone takes ESJ up on the bet? He can’t lose then. They don’t call be Diogenes the Cynic for nothing (although William does seem very honest).
Kirribilli Removals…loved the mention of “Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster”
http://www.venganza.org/
#75
Swing Lowe
I am in the electorate of Cowper, have hardly seen any Labor ads, the Greens have more ads here than Labor.
Morgan’s 56 to 44 2 PP does NOT transform into a landslide.
IF this massive swing to labor is in VERY safe Labor AND VERY safe Liberal seats
Both Galaxy & Morgan SHOULD BE disclosing the 2 PP vote FOR EACH seat polled
so the Public can make their own judgement.
Both Galaxy & Morgan have this info. and are keeping it secret are they not ??
With the recent Morgan, Newspoll and Galaxy marginal seats polls all over the place, I’d rather focus on the individual seat betting and polls done exclusively for each seat.
According to Simon Jackman’s analysis (based on the average individual seat odds in Centrebet, Portlandbet and Sportingbet) the 19 Coalition seats where Labor is the favourite (ie. 50%+ probability of winning) are:
NSW: Lindsay, Macquarie, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Robertson, Page
Vic: La Trobe
Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Bowman
WA: Hasluck
SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin
Tas: Bass, Braddon
NT: Solomon
No current Labor seats in those betting markets are favourites for the Coalition to win. To me punters would only bet on a seat if they reasonably think they’ll win, so to me these look like seats that Labor has a reasonable chance of winning off the Coalition.
To these 19 seats could be added:
Deakin (Vic) where Portlandbet has Labor as the favourite
Bennelong (NSW) where all the polls in that seat have shown Labor ahead – although this is not reflected in the betting market
Plus there are 9 further seats, which according to individual seat betting or polls, are either too close to call or look like moving into favouritism for Labor:
Corangamite (Vic)
Petrie (Qld)
Leichhardt (Qld)
McMillan (Vic)
Wentworth (NSW) – based on recent opinion polling but not betting on that seat
McEwen (Vic)
Sturt (SA)
Paterson (NSW)
Stirling (WA)
So that’s 19 to 30 seats Labor could win – meaning to Labor:
Worst case scenario: Lab = 79, Coa = 69, Ind = 2 (8-seat Lab majority)
Best case scenario: Lab = 90, Coa = 58, Ind = 2 (30-seat Lab majority)
That’s my take on what the election result could be, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of you disagreeing with me -either that I’m being too optimistic or too pessimistic.
Friends , Do not underestimate the swing that is on here in Brisbane. Bonner is moving over hard ‘n fast . Moreton the same & expect some surprises… Ryan. Yes Ryan is ON & look out for Fisher too. Many more too!
I will be vindicated next Saturday night.
Ron Brown
Read Oz Track 33. You may change your views.
Rudd’s appearance on Rove has already been covered in the news
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094126.htm?section=justin
You may not be surprised about the answer to ‘Who would you turn gay for?’
Yes, thats right………. Piers Akerman.
Okay maybe not.
Apparently Kevin said there is only one person for me and thats my wife Therese. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094126.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
85 Kiwipundit – would agree with your methodology, but favour the optimistic end of the spectrum (ALP majority of >24)
To see anything other than a comfortable win for the ALP requires some uncomfortable contortions.
Off-topic
Can someone please give me an idea of the stake limits in per-seat betting for the various agencies?
Pity, but I guess it’s safe, and he scores props for appearing.
Onimod,
No idea what the limits are, but if you want to bet big, go to either Centrebet or Sportingbet. They’re the two biggest in terms of amounts bet, so they’re likely to give you the best odds if you’re betting big money…
For info next Saturday the polls close @ (AEDT)
NSW,Vic,ACT, Tas: 6pm
SA: 6:30pm
QLD: 7pm
NT: 7:30pm
WA: 8pm
A result declared at???
Thanks Swing Lowe
Do I care? Morgan, Shmorgan.
The company is angling for something. Newsprint? Publicity? Idiocy?
Vaile has tried the street surfers, now he’s going for the sea version:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094125.htm?section=justin
re post 85 the range I think is a little broader from plus 14 labor (most unlikely)
to about plus 45 which also would be equally unlikely
Many yrs ago I did a uni course on sampling which i failed from reading this
blog I have learned a great deal … thank you
marginal seat surveys unless they have a large properly chosen
sample mean very little… due large moe….. but the total figures can be quite accurate ie 2pp
Have to agree, these marginal seat polls are useless.
I’ll just take the 56% TPP and let you guys worry about the marginals.
I think Roy Morgan has shares in Poll Bludger and needed to keep the hits up by making stupid observations on seat by seat
Every time the real Kevin Rudd comes out in these sort of interviews, I REALLY like the bugger. The prepackaged “ALP Kevin Rudd TM” we’ve been seeing all election annoys me all the more when you see that he actually seems quite a decent bloke as is.
No one ever goes back and checks the marginal polls – when pollsters want to claim accuracy, its total primary and 2PP or nothing. The rest is bollocks.
Exactly, Grog.
Expect all 4 pollsters to release mega-samples of national TPP on Friday, as it will be those polls that everyone will remember…
Lord D #57
IF one wants to accept Morgan’s total figure 56% 2 PP covering 22 marginal seats & ignore the seat & state 2 ppp %’s ,
THEN one has to the SAME for Galaxy’s Poll which shows in total NATIONALLY over the 20 marginal’s polled as Labor 2 PP of 50.8% ie. only a 4.5% swing
IN TOTAL NATIONALLY , the difference between Morgan’s 56% 2 PP
vs Galaxy’s 50.8% 2 PP is disturbing (and defies logic)
Morgan do publish the figures they have on a seat by seat.
Go to thier home page and click the purple box and follow the links
Currently every Marginal has ALP ahead
even Canning is 49/51
I’ve only seen that annoying “ding” advertisement & anti-Workchoices here in Adelaide tonight.
I think its really time to drop the former – its is becoming very annoying – and replace it with something a bit more positive, forward looking & upbeat.
106- in WA I mean
In ACT the ALP since 8pm have run a lot of ads on Channel 10 (es I have Oz Idol on)- the whinging wendy one, the blue collar worker one and the street sign work-choices further one.
The Libs have had the $80b debt one, and the interst rates one on pretty high rotation, but not as many since 8pm.
Anyone with any insights into what tactics either party might use over the remaining campaign? Change in style of advertising for the remaing 2 days?
Aussieguru at 87
I’m already on record saying the same thing including Fisher.The north is coming over as well,both Herbert and Leichhardt are on the way over as well.Keep a close watch on Petrie,I think Gambaro is in for a real shock as will some other Coalition members.LOL!!!!!!
esj. are you now saying our bet is off? why ? chicken?
Did anyone catch the votingrecord ad?
Re wakefield. apparently Howard’s office is breifing journalists that the Coalition is ahead in internal polling for that seat.
Swing Lowe @ 104 – you’re right about that! I’ll wait with bated breath on Friday for those last marginal seats polls – after all there’s still 6 days to go until the election.
In this final week, Rudd has to forget everything else and go in hard on the climate. This issue will trump everything else the conservatives will throw at him. It’s his biggest trump card
I understand the sample is small, but the Victorian result tallies with current on the ground experience. Deakin, McEwen, La Trobe, and Corangamite are all close but will not get there. Deakin has a Your Rights at Work campaign, but Baressi is a tough nut to crack. Symon’s is a good candidate in any election other than one on Industrial Relations, and Labor is looking for 4.8% but not matching the government in local spending. McEwen doesn’t have a Your Rights at Work campaign, the Labor candidate is alright, but Bailey is a great campaigner and Labor is looking for a 7% swing. Jason Wood is the worst Liberal MP/candidate of the bunch, and will be the one to go. There is a Your Rights at Work campaign, and a good Labor candidate in Cox, but not enough work has been done at the Berwick end of the seat. Also, the former ALP candidate has stuck their head up too, and at 5.8%, this doesn’t help. Corangamite has an ancient Liberal MP, and should already be pencilled in, but the Labor candidate matches Jason Wood in terms of being very poor. Possibly, another candidate would have done much better. Gavan O’Connor is a problem here too. The margin is 5.4% and reports suggest Labor has been even more unsighted in the Geelong end of the seat than the Berwick end of La Trobe. It does have a Your Rights at Work campaign, which will get the margin down but this will not be enough.
As I am at another place, I did see commercial TV. On the Cricket, switched over to ABC. Einstein. And ABC from there.
Saw Labor ads, only.
Labor. Concise, to the point. Reality.
If there were LNP Ads, must have blanked out.
Just spoke to a friend who is fairly high in the C’wth public service. Very interesting. Apparently the department head is telling her to read papers by Tanner and Swan. She reports that her department has been in overdrive like never before – preparing for a new government.
Bodes well – but isn’t definitive I guess.
78 Paul,
No u r wrong I was the last post. Not the terms I offered so declined.
Interesting only libsrok took up my proposition no one else was prepared to put up or shut up that the Newspoll 2PP would be better than 53-47 for Labor. Interesting.
Wiliam is the terms I have negotiated with libsrok acceptable?
Luke Skywalker
Are you looking for Darth Howard?
GG@114,
If Wakefield is held by the Coalition, it will be one of the biggest upsets this election. I’ll give you a brief overview of the seat-by-seat betting on Wakefield at the major bookies:
Sportingbet: LAB $1.05/ LIB $7.50
Portlandbet: LAB $1.05/ LIB $8.00
Centrebet: LAB $1.04/ LIB $8.25
Btw, Centrebet has come down on the federal result from $1.19/$4.75 to $1.24/$4.10 today. Sportingbet has come down to (from $1.20/$4.50 to $1.22/$4.25)
GG @ 114.
Where’d you get that?
Sounds like nonsense.
Based on all publically available polling things would have had to change a massive amount overnight.
GG,
I bet that poll would be like that so-called Eden-Monaro internal poll they had in early September – a made up “qualitative” Crosby/Textor poll to keep the Liberal staff, campaign workers and backbench MPs morale up.
No, but I wish I could use the force to influence the result…
Luke @ 117
Ummm… Gavan O’Conner is in Corio up against Marles.
Triffid @ 110
No insights but a strong suspicion we’re in for a whole lot of non-core fear pandering policy announcements of the tough on ‘them’ variety from the LNP. Howard is chasing the wedge issue dragon. Labor will rely on variations of the successful ‘time is up’ message. Change of tactics at this stage is definitely only for the desperate.
I was down working with a branch of the public service in Canberra this week – and I can tell you that yes, they’re all working overtime, and they fully expect that there will be a change of government. Apparently Rudd really is serious about putting the machinery to work at full tilt before Christmas – there was even some talk about calling Parliament back in mid-December. (I don’t even know if this can be done legally – have all the Writs been returned?)
The biggest question on the minds of the various public service folks was: can they get all this legislation through the various review offices in time?
Telling, Samuel K, at 119.
Looks like, you betcha.
Someone referred to a Laurie Oakes article, Bulletin, Roof Top Strategy per Saigon, Labor much years ago, waterproofing. Earlier thread. Have a look.
Applicable, Libs?
mad cow – the votingrecord on Gary Nairn has got big play here – it’s one the ALP’s best.
But I think the bloke in the blue shirt saying “sorry mate, not this time” is the best.
esj. i gotta get ready & go to work i trust our bet is on. cya tommorow
120 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Don’t equate no response because of anything other than people ignoring you. Newpoll will be at least 55/45, and probably 56/44.
Perhaps it’s best to pay the following odds no mind. Afterall, Eden-Monaro is only a bellweather seat top-heavy with atheists, druggies, dole bludgers and Un-Australians.
Eden-Monaro (NSW) – Winning Candidate
KELLY, Mike (ALP) 1.12
NAIRN, Gary (LIB) 5.25
Labor ads are running heavily in the lead-up to Rudd’s appearance on Rove.
Labor’s tied with the Libs in Corangamite on Sportingbet – I think this the first time Labor has ever tied with the Libs in this seat on any betting site this election…
Is Ozymandias on site?
National Interest, ABC Radio, featured the seat today.
Rgee, yes, O’Connor is in Corio, but without knowing Geelong that well, I’m sure the buckets of mud he is throwing are wrecking the Labor name in the area. You can smell it in Melbourne, and therefore, you can probably smell it in Colac.
Oh, and Labor is up in Page on both Centrebet and Sportingbet now. I believe this is also the first time that this seat has “fallen” on any of the bookie sites…
ESJ – I’d have gladly taken the $100 bet, but the 6 rate rises since 04 have so eateninto my household budget that I don’t have a spare $100 to lob on what would otherwise be a sure thing.
Sorry to William, his site is well worth a donation.
Article from Fair News Australia
It’ll be a Labor Landslide
Any analysis based on past election results – as this one is – requires a rough estimate of what the final 2PP (Two-Party Preferred) vote will be. To do this, we will tabulate and graph the Newspoll results from 1993 to 2007, for the final 5 or 6 weeks in each campaign.
The tabular data looks like this:
See Link
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/58/1/
grog I saw the tail end of the votingrecord ad, this time aimed at Bob Baldwin. Did yours go “thinking of voting Bob Baldwin?.. think again” ?
First time I’ve actually seen a neg ad directly naming Bob. Are they gonna do more of these? How often are they running it in EM?
Speaking Of Darth Vader
Gough is looking a lot like Vader with his helmet off in the end of Jedi
yep mad cow – I might even checkout votingrecord.com.au
Ryan is in play for the ALP, national office is spending money here and dedicating resoures. this is a 10% plus seat so I would think Greater Brisbane Tory seats are in dep deep deep doo doos!!
From the http://www.votingrecord.com.au site, it seems that it’s going to be targeted against NSW and Queensland incumbents only. There’s no voting record on display for Coalition incumbents in other states.
Is this because Workchoices is biting more in these states than the others? Coz I reckon if they ran these voting record ads in Sydney on high rotation, it would be a sure-fire vote-winner…
Possum Comitatus Says:
Who will offer soft swingers free viagara? Adds a whole new meaning to “pork”.
I suppose the most encouraging thing for Labor supporters is that Rudd isn’t acting as he would be if they were not in front in a majority of seats. If they were behind he’d be acting more drastically, promising more money and hitting the marginals with lots of targetted spending. Instead this is what we’re seeing from John Howard. I have a feeling that if Labor thought they were behind we’d be seeing much more dramatic announcements coming from their direction and a lot less caution.
The most encouraging thing for Coalition supporters is that these marginal polls tend to at least allow the possibility that the swings aren’t occuring in the right places. It’s possible that the swings in one or two marginals per state are so high that it counters negligible swings in other seats. Couple this with polls we’ve seen of Lilley, Adelaide and Kingston (? I think) which show huge swings to Labor in their held seats and it certainly makes it a possibility that the Coalition could just scrape back in. Once again, this isn’t the most likely outcome, but certainly possible. I know I won’t be popular for acknowledging this but that’s fine with me.
Rudd’s on Rove
Rudd is on Rove now.
SL, odd
Triffid 107 , Howard’s ‘tactics’ – vicious flailing. Rudd’s – calm, nothing much.
re Morgan, its Gary not Roy. I suspect this is a classic case of the idiot son inheriting from the intelligent father. Gary Morgan’s analysis of his poll results, and his weird ‘right direction’ question are both bizarre. Take no notice of them whatsoever. The poll sample sizes for individual electorates make the task of balancing for demographic differences within them simply impossible. There is nowhere near enough data available about what the demographics are, and where they are, to allow sensible sampling design. As I have commented earlier wrt Bennelong, that seat is so diverse in every way, kidding yourself that you have ‘captured’ it with a sample of 200, 400, 800, whatever is a pure wank. The fact that four polls, over a period of six months, have ended up with an almost unvarying 52:48 to Maxine, is a cause for wonderment. The total of all four still has a MOE at 95% of around 2%.
All of the polls still show a national result of at least 54:46. It is so close to an impossibility that the coalition can win from here, with numbers like that, that I hereby promise to reveal my identity to EStJ if Howard wins.
My company builds big forecasting models for many Government departments and agencies, and companies from tiny to huge. We have done so for over 25 years, and before that I did it for the biggest consulting firm in the world. We use every technique known, and we have invented a few of our own.
In my opinion, as I have stated on this blog and its predecessor since January, Howard is stuffed, and my personal forecast is for Labor 94, Independents 2, or just maybe, 3.
Gary Morgan should stick to reporting primary votes, nationally for a single poll., and state by state, for a four poll aggregation. Possum, Bryan and others can then interpret his results for him. He is plainly incompetent when it comes to doing it himself.
cheers,
Alan H
nothing humourous – nice one Kev
Oh Dear, The Doctor’s Union don’t like El Rodente’s Drug Crackdown.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22778985-948,00.html
This is such a good ad for the younger folk
http://alp.org.au/labortv/roSSlPHs5h
Embrace the nerd Kev!
But I have to laugh at the prominence given to the “Exit Strategy” for Iraq.
I agree with it 110%, but I still think it is ironic to make it promise. The old word for “Exit Strategy” used to be “Retreat” or “Surrender”
the ‘gerd’
Kevin is doing a great job – he’s funny and relaxed. GREAT line about there being a real problem if he couldn’t take Howard in a bar fight.
Rudd was remarkably humorous on Rove, I think he’ll have sealed a few votes there.
Could somebody who is tipping Labor for 94 seats please tell me which seats are going to fall? Okay, let’s say Labor runs the table on the marginals on everything down to Paterson, including Wentworth and Bennelong. That still leaves 10 seats to be won… okay, add Bowman, McEwen, Sturt, Flynn, Leichhardt, Robertson… Ryan maybe…
Okay, i’m up to 91 and struggling. Petrie maybe? Hinkler? Hughes? Fisher? Fairfax? Dickson or Longman? Don’t tell me you think we’re going to win Wide Bay? I’m from the Sunshine Coast originally, I just can’t see it. I lived in Bundaberg too for a year and my sources there (sub editor at the local paper) tell me that Parr has shot himself in the foot with his comments during the campaign. A lot of these seats will be marginal and ripe for a takeover after a good Rudd first term, but I just can’t see it yet.
Even with 56%, which we surely can’t get more than about 94 can we? That would leave us with around a 9% swing and maybe, just maybe 94 seats. If the swing is that big though, surely a lot of it is going to be wasted in the 20%+ safe lib seats. Unless of course, that puts seats like North Sydney in play. I still think it’s hard to believe that we win with more than about 53.5% even if everything goes right.
I’ll stick with predicting 79, and hoping that i’m wrong and we can get the swings in the right places with 53-54% to get a comfortable 82-85 seats. Maybe by election day i’ll bump up my prediction to 81-82.
Rudd kicked a fair few goals on Rove. (though probalby most were already onside)
BBD do you actually get a wage as an honorary secretary?
awww.. wimped out!
Huh? I dunno. I’m a bit busy for this kind of thing at the moment.
At least he had some nice material written for that last question – but, really, he dodged the answer…
Rudd would turn gay for his wife?
Can you imagine JWH answering any of those questions?
Well we already know his answer about inviting Cossie to dinner…
Rudd was surprisingly humourous on Rove – the only thing I could fault him for was that he had a bit of a tendency to interrupt Rove during the interview. Still – that’s a minor fault compared to the calmness of his performance…
My impression of Rudd’s Rove performance:
He really kept a lid on anything resembling exuberance or over-confidence but still managed to come across as real, amusing, engaging.
A difficult balance to strike but I reckon he did it. If John Howard was watching, he would honestly have to acknowledge that the man has something he does not, at that basic level of connecting in a modern way.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22780224-12377,00.html
82 Diogenes:
You would run rings around me any time in a philosophy tute which is where you seem to be stuck.
I am not William. I’m just a bloke who would prefer to save time not having to read all this troll crap on PB, not meaning you, but the Isabellas and Tabithas and ESJ and most manifestations of Glen etc. I also happen to have had a learning exerience that I expect is beyond your ken, of having grown up as a privileged white in 1960s South Africa and having seen politicians like Verwoerd and Vorster and then watching aghast 40 years later as Howard and Ruddock and Andrews disinterred these corpse politicians and revived their values. There’s not a Mandela in sight but then I suspect Diogenes that you are a Mandela cynic.
What Rudd did – amazingly – was to present himself simply. The party line (in bullet points) came up a bit, but really it was all about, “I’m the man, here’s the plan, if you like it, you’ll vote Labor.”
Which is about as soft-sell as anything we’ve seen so far in this election.
And for Glen:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22780224-5005361,00.html
Has anyone seen the Greens Ad with bob Brown talking to Bob Brown on how to get double value for you Sentae vote – or as he says getting your two bob’ worth”.
Was on during the cricket here in canberra. A nice light touch – Greens are lightening up.
also a rather random add of a green dinosaur coming out of an egg. It was highly obscure and left me confused as to what the point was.
Elect Vessel, since we were never in the front, or even the fifth line, how can anything we do be characterised as being other than a token lump of bullshit. Typical Howard, all show, no substance. Australians being used for political posturing. Licking GB’s fundamental orifice, at great cost to our country, in terms our collective self respect, and our reputation in the world and your and my money. Not to mention putting my children in increased danger from terrorist attack.
Thank dog, the little turd is about to get his comeuppance. Oh tra lee, tra lay, the joy.
cheers,
Alan H
Just to try and build some tipping credentials
My tip for the gay question was:
“No one – my wife wouldn’t let me”
Rudd actual reply: “There’s only one person for me, that’s my wife Therese.”
162 Edward St John
You don’t get a wage as an honorary Secretary.
You may get an Honorarium, which is a token amount to cover expenses, no one would do the job for an honorarium alone, it is not even the same value as unemployment benefit on most cases.
Rudd presented himself as a human being tonight, with a sense of humour.
He was willing to poke fun at himself, and he was quite funny in places.
And he even got some laughs out of the “who will you turn gay for” question.
I now know why JWH doesn’t go on that show. He never would have been able to do what Kevin did.
When was the last time that JWH cracked a joke at his own expense?
William,
Have you got Poll Bludger road tested to the point where you can trust it on Saturday night?
………. We are likely to set some tally records on this site I suspect 
To change tack for a second. Was last week’s Newspoll released on Sunday night for Monday or Monday for Tuesday?
If the former, might there be a heads up on Sky at 930?
180 Julie
Good point Julie, I suggest we all chip in a few $ using the pay pal link on this site so William can get extra bandwidth. He actually pays to keep this site going for us.
I see no-one is arguing against the analysis of Victorian Seats.
TO marko, Flash and Swing Lowe,
No way did we just see the same interview
Rudd was about as entertaining as a cup of cold sick
It was wooden, reserved, and completely uninspirig.
The answer to the question “who would you turn gay for?”, sums it all up, he couldn’t field the question without referring to notes (no doubt supplied by his media consultants), and giving Therese totally missed the fun of the question.
The issue here is that he wouldn’t go on Insiders because he is scared of real scrutiny. He gave priority to appearing on Rove!!!!! and turned up with as much personality as a wet sponge
Alan H – 151
Thanks for an interesting post. Does the same go for Galaxy’s recent marginal polling and David Brooks?
Yeah William, what are the plans for Saturday? Anything special for PollBludger?
I’ve having a party, and I want to show people this site. The thing that has maintained my sanity for the past 6 months.
I’ll probably be up all night anyway LOL…..
re post 160
94 or better are a guess assuming there are approx 40 seats able to change hands
assuming 55/45 as per the polls
also assuming sa/qld are the better states it is quite possible
to nominate the seats which will fall is difficult… but some greater than 10% seats can swing
to Labor. esp where inflated margins exist (about 8 seats)
Don’t like to gloat (well, a bit.. ) but I suspected this would be the Rudd reply:
Flash Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Re the Rove gay question: I think Rudd has no choice but to play it safe. His minders will come up with an answer that is: A: funny but B: decidely heterosexual and untroubling to the more conservative elements of middle Australia.
My wife Therese, safe, moderate, if in doubt go boring. But no headlines there, I wonder if the libs are learning anything. Imagine losing this election because you got totally suckrd in by .001% of the population who happened to be CEO’s of the major institutions, shame on you John Howard.
Mick, we’ve got no reason to believe Qld and SA are the ‘better states’. All individual seat polling is showing the swings to be quite modest in SA and Qld. 3 gains in SA and 2 in Qld.
Elect Vessel, maybe you could read Hugh White’s assesment of that other “coalition”, it’s not a very happy one:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094012.htm?section=world
…but JWH signed up to it, and it’s one more albatross he’ll drag to this election.
re 180 maybe william will need more funds?
go hughesie!
Ok, can somebody explain me this?
I understand the comments about Morgans marginal poll on a seat by seat. Small sample size in the individual seats means that the MOW is humungous. So the only significant figures are the national 55.5/44.5 and the overall marginal of 54/46.
So, why are the Newspoll quarterly surveys any better?
Is it because they draw conclusions about classes of seats (marginal, govt safe, opposition safe) rather than individual seats?? What is their MOE for the classes of seats??
Paul – youre spot on about Howard and his vile racist opportunism – the quality that sets him apart from every other postwar Australian Prime Minister and will haunt him long after the 24th.
Luke – I have heard otherwise on Corangamite. However, I agree with you regarding Deakin, it might be a sticky one. La Trobe will go.
Heads up for Agenda at 9-30 people….
Newspoll?
Maybe not because of the marginal they put out…
179 [When was the last time that JWH cracked a joke at his own expense?]
Don’t you remember him trying to play cricket in Afghanistan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGqTayhu5QM
what channel is agenda?
Agenda – Spears guest a rep. from the CCC and he led with the tape of Rudd from Rove with the answer to THE question ……
Received a phone call from my union (ASU) this afternoon; wondering if I had any questions about workchoices. Unlike the Liberal TV advertisements depicting the unionists as pot belly thugs; the advocate on the other end of the phone sounded very female, young, and quite spunky. I really wanted to spend the rest of the afternoon chatting her up, but I let her go as she clearly had more phone calls to make for the cause. (Actually, thinking about it more, I really should have played out the line of a Liberalist struggling with a change of mind. She really sounded cute. Sigh.)
Do you think the Libs are trying to tell us something about interest rates?
“we’re sorry” ?
I wonder if it has the same importance as what they told us about interest rates in 2004?
Thought it might.
RGee, what have you heard about Corangamite? What is the issue(s) down there? and has O’Connor got any chance in Corio?
189- Follow the preferences;
How’s this for a headline:
RUDD: I’D GO GAY FOR MY WIFE
Misleading and draws you in- classic mass market material.
For next Saturday could we have just the one thread or a thread per state otherwise.
Nice performance from Rudd on Rove, I saw the ALP ad which went ‘DING’ I quite liked it and the bloke taking about Workchoices is better than the women one but compared to the flash back to what happened if Whitlam or Hawke is old hat.
I don’t see American President candidates going on about Reagan or Carter.
I take it Morgan wasn’t doing the polling for any particular newspaper? They’re a bit like a mangey dog skulking around begging for scraps aren’t they?
ps. I hereby give my permission for Morgan to reproduce this comment at the end of each of his polls
Rudd played it very clever on Rove by not going into full elctioneering mode. It was very much “everyone makes up there minds – that’s democracy”.
Poss said it all: “Beware of the commentary about individual seats, the marginal seat polling has an MoE of between 5.5 and 10% per State, and about 15% per seat. The only useful things here are the overall national result of 55.5/44.5 with a minimum MoE of 2.5% and the overall marginal result of 54/46 with a minimum 3% MoE .
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
So stop committing mass suicide and relax
RUDD: I’D GO GAY FOR MY WIFE
and Rove says so your wife is a man!
Oliver @ 160. There is no point in trying to pick which seats will fall. Most of the low hanging fruit will fall, of course, but after that, its all down to individual demographic differences, particular candidate strengths and weaknesses, individual campaigning and how well it picked up on the overall campaign messages, and a completely indefinable maelstrom of influences from local and national advertising, media presentations, with perceived or actual bias, and so on and on and on. In the end, the overall TPP vote will express itself in seats won or lost. Just like a balloon, if you squeeze it in at one point, it will bulge out at another. The reason I pick 94 seats is that what Antony Green’s beautiful calculator:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
says will happen when I feed in my personal take on the polling results, after my own ‘corrections’.
Try it yourself.
cheers,
Alan H
Well that’s all well and good Finnigan, but if the swing isn’t uniform just looking at the headline figure is useless.
Luke I wouldn’t take as gospel the mutterings of those whose candidate lost pre selection for Corangamite. We got the right demographic – a young bloke vs an ancient fossil.
But still its going to be very, very hard.
Yeah it was good he didn’t go into message mode.
I don’t understand why Howard didn’t go on the show, it was all pretty harmless stuff really.
Rudd on Rove was entertaining – it was good to see him relaxed, smiling and laughing. The answer ro the questions was boring but could only ever be what he answered.
Any news on Newspoll on Sky – I don’t get it. They did announce it at this time last week.
This may have been noted, but neither Centrebet nor Sportingbet lists odds for Wentworth – is this because of the question mark over Newhouse’s eligibility? Or just to hard to make a sensible judgment about a volatile electorate?
Imacca at 194 – the newspoll quarterlies have a much bigger sample, and an MoE on the marginal/safe government/safe alp seat breakdown of a tad over 3% per category.
The State breakdowns have an MoE of around 4% per state, the age breakdowns around 3%, the capital city vs non-capital city about 2.7%.
Bob Brown on Rove…
Bob Brown on Rove!!
Luke – I heard about 6 weeks ago that it was going to go from a couple confident staffers.
I have been told Gavan doesn’t have much chance at all.
Rudd’s gone the final week wedge.
He’s getting the hang of this now. How?
The Age – Rudd pledge on emissions
KATHARINE MURPHY 3:08pm | Kevin Rudd promises to set a 2020 target to cut greenhouse gas emissions within six months of forming government.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007economy/rudd-pledge-on-emissions/2007/11/18/1195321594035.html
Now how do you think Howard will respond?
Exactly.
Your consistent, but it doesn’t matter. The open question now is not will labor win the election, the question is, will the Liberal party be consigned to history. Anything over 100 seats and I think the answer will be yes, they will not recover.
Staffers wouldn’t know any more than the rest of us. Unless they’re Rudd’s staff.
I was pretty sure newpoll is anounced on MOnday for publishing Tuesday?
Bob Brown also made Rove – is the legal requirement true??
He looked delighted to get a few minutes in the limelight….
My 17-year-old daughter just said to me that Kevin Rudd was really funny on Rove, cracked jokes and seemed like a great bloke. She has no interest in politics, and only recently learned (from me) that Rudd was Labor and Howard was Liberal. She said it was the first time she’d ever seen a politician being entertaining on the television, cos they’re usually so boring.
I wish I’d watched it. I could do with a laugh from this campaign (haven’t had one since the Family First candidate got caught watching porno). Rudd actually does have a sense of humour and can crack a joke. We’ve forgotten that some politicians can actually do this. Gillard can do it too.
I reckon Rudd is going to sweep the 18-24s, and those that don’t vote for him will vote Green and give him their preferences. And I reckon Howard is really stupid not to go on Rove and FM radio stations. I suspect it’s because he has not idea of how to relate to their audiences, and is scared he might be asked a question that’s off the planet (like “What’s a search engine?” or “What’s your favourite Britney Spears song?”).
Off Topic, but found this video on News according to Ch 7 Perth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB45iw3FoqE&feature=related
For those of you who turned off Rove, Bob Brown made an appearance. The big question was who would you turn straight for? Missy Higgins.
197,
I don’t think Sky will do any polling tonight of any sort (release of info I mean). I think that he was settling into the interview with the Climate Change Coalition candidate and so I turned it off.
He did interview Kieran Gilbert though on the show before they started the CCC interview. Gilbert is their reporter in the Rudd media flock and you could tell from the questions he (Spears) was asking “Is there a danger that Rudd could appear to be a candidate with too much fluff (or words to that effect) by appearing on a show like this?” {dig obviously inserted at behest of Insiders I think}. Gilbert was very appreciative and had good words to say about Rudd’s preformance on Rove and after several attempts to get around the same question, asked in different ways, just cut Gilbert off, politely though, to which Gilbert took it like a trooper. Spears really doesn’t like it when the reports he has to do and can not walk away from are going to be positive for the ALP
Rud was clever while he didn’t appear in full campaign mode he repeated his priority twice, and targeted Roves audition nicely, I can’t find anyone under 35 apart from young Libs willing to vote for Howard, remembering the damage the first time voters did to Keating in 1996
Lose the election – Like you Id prefer it to be cut and dried but unfortunately there are no absolute garauntees in life. My consoling thought is that Labor isnt in the same poll position as the coalition a week out from the big decision.
229: I applaud his taste, but it wouldn’t do him any good…. sadly, thanks to recent news regarding Missy
Anyway … bit late on the discussion … but I’m happy with a headline of 56/44/
I did enjoy the commentary that notes the swings varied quite alot. A 15.6% MOE on a seat by seat basis will do that
Overall the three marginal polls indicate no great change in the vote and a 2pp high enough to overcome any marginal firewall, maginot line, whatever strategy Lib central is banking on.
Mind you I could do with a nice 55+ newspoll just to settle then nerves
It does seem that Vic might not come to the party big time and only deliver 1 to 2 seats on the night.
My post on Simon Jackman:
It’s interesting that the event most talked about in the dailies is the application of a national 2PP swing applied uniformly across Australia. In my 50 years following Australian elections it has never occurred. State variations are explainable by factors such as state based newspapers, state news on TV and radio, different demographic and economic changes occurring in different states, individual popularity of state governments, regional issues (such as Ringwood/Frankston toll freeway in Melbourne’s east) etc. State variations are what can deliver a narrow win or a much larger win given the same national 2PP swing. In this election we have more state based info than ever before. If properly applied (given the margin of error) it allows psephologists to more closely predict the result (but things can change even in the last week – highly unlikely now).
On all figures published in the last three months (and especially the last 3 weeks)there is clear evidence that on election night we should get close to the following suggested 2PP numbers:
NSW: 54.8 vs 48.1 in 2004, a 6.7 percentage point swing; 8 seats.
Vic: 55.0 vs 49.0 in 2004, a 6.0 percentage point swing; 4 seats.
Qld: 51.3 vs 42.9 in 2004, a 8.4 percentage point swing; 8 seats.
SA: 52.6 vs 45.6 in 2004, a 7.0 percentage point swing, 5 seats.
WA: 47.6 vs 44.6 in 2004, a 3.0 percentage point swing, 2 seats.
Tas: 59.0 vs 54.2 in 2004, a 4.8 percentage point swing, 2 seats.
NT: 55.1 vs 52.1 in 2004, a 3.0 percentage point swing, 1 seats.
ACT: 66.6 vs 61.5 in 2004, a 4.9 percentage point swing, 0 seats.
AUS: 53.7 vs 47.3 in 2004, a 6.4 percentage point swing, 30 seats.
Even within each state some seats below the figure won’t fall and some above will fall but it is on a state basis that the compensation between above and below balances out. The state variances account for why the national 2PP required changes from one election to the next.
234- Albert
A 54-46 Newspoll would be just fine
Sky Agenda marketing commentator made an interesting observation about Labor’s non-verbal “Beep, berrrr” TV ad. He said a lot of people now fast-forward through ads – so these people would get the message anyway.
223 – Charles
Take any prediction of the extinction of a party with about a kilo of salt.
224 – LTEP
If you want an objective opinion dont ask a staffer they know nothing. Its like asking Igor whether Master is going to suck the blood out of 3 or 4 virgins tonight.
Generally
The Rudd was so witty and clever comments just sound like so much peanut gallery stuff.
Basically if Rudd loses given the year Howard has had it means one thing – the smell of Labor’s previous failures havent worn off and Labor cant win without fundamental internal reform. End of story.
We’ll see. Still think Rudd will get a small margin and a conditional mandate, ie screw up and well throw you out.
If Victoria swings by 4.8% then that will be massive remembering Kennett suffered only a 3% swing in 1999, I think we need to ignore the pendulem but again at this stage its all nazal gazing.
@235
Davo Harvey Bay
That was EXACTLY my prediction a coupla days ago 53.7 to 46.3!
Albert if newspoll comes out on Tuesday with a 55+ it’ll be goodnight nurse – the media reactionwill cause a meltdown.
I think the Libs would need it to be >54, otheriwse it’ll mostly be reported as same ole same ole.
53 will be reported as the election is still alive
52 would be “come-back!!!”
I’m not saying that any of these results would actually mean there is a real comeback, narrowing or even no change, but the media reportage is vital if the Libs are to have any traction this week.
My information is more recent (as in phone call today). The Labor candidate is unknown, and apparently, doesn’t live in the seat. Did anyone see the 7.30 report on this seat? I didn’t, but apparently it did not show the Labor guy in a good light. My souce lives at the tail end of Geelong, and says the Libs are all over the ground down there with stuff, and as is the Work Rights campaign, but they haven’t seen Labor, apart from some letters. The margin seems too high considering…
The “beep/burr” ad also goes down well at pubs where the cricket is on but the sound is off….
All this hype about Rudd on Rove, you know what gang i missed it, so will millions of others voters who had better things to do on a Sunday night than watch TV. Sure many rusted ons will have watched it just to see Kevin but i doubt he’ll get any electoral benefit for going on Rove to prove he’s ‘cool’. We don’t need a ‘cool’ PM, we need the right PM and Howard is the right leader IMHO.
Rudd won’t win any votes for going on Rove and to think so is just plain silly. We need less questions about ear wax and who you’d turn gay for and more on Rudd’s agenda and his policies which so far the media have failed miserably to scrutinise.
And for the record this election will be close whoever wins, a Labor landslide is fanciful considering the polls are narrowing but not enough to definitively make this election undecided. Nevertheless Howard or Rudd won’t have a majority of more than 10 seats IMHO.
I’ll try to dig up some more info tomorrow.
Glen I don’t think anyone has suggested the Rove appearance will change many votes (I suggested most of the viewers were already onside).
Glen, nearly every 30s something person I know watches Rove for they want a laugh and relax before heading of to
“workchoices land”
“at this stage its all nazal gazing.”
Is that looking down your nose?
But seriously folks, I just got an email from a friend who said her two daughters (aged 11 and 13) got hugely excited when they heard Kevin Rudd was going to be on Rove. I tell you, Kevin07 has been very cleverly marketed, and he is becoming a sex symbol.
There are shades of 1972 here (I am old enough to remember), when there was excitement amongst the young about a new Prime Minister and a change of government. This sort of feeling tends to be a bit irrational and emotional, and it’s a tide that’s very hard to turn back.
{We don’t need a ‘cool’ PM, we need the right PM and Howard is the right leader IMHO.}
And you need a new slogan Glen. How ’bout “We’re not waiting for a Cooler World.”?
I think my respect for Glen, Edward StJ, Generic Person and the other Lib supporters on this site will definately increase if we find them here on next Sunday arvo.
I think it would be unfortunate if we don’t here a post election analysis from them after they have put up with our shit to make contributions for so long now.
Glen, yes GLEN!!! wrote:
Okay, what happened? Who changed the universe while I was out!
Cue: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ovWA-bfd1I
#248 And of course, the difference is that, in 1972, the 18-21s didn’t have the vote. Now they do (thanks to Whitlam). Under Menzies/Holt/McMahon, of course, they could be conscripted for Vietnam and shot dead, but couldn’t be trusted near a ballot box.
Poss, are you going to crunch this stuff. Is it possible? Looks like a dog’s breakfast o me.
Has anyone noticed ANY positive Lib ads? Ones that might start with “This is the Liberal plan to keep inflation low…”. All we get is scare, scare, scare….ATTACK. Or is this the appropriate impression created by the Libs – “we can only think negative”
But on the Rove thing – last week it rated 1.145m viewers. I’m betting it will beat that this wek quite easily.
ABC Radio News is reporting on Ridd’ ‘n’ Rove in detail with sound bites. The sting in the tail is a swipe at Baz’s dummy spit re Rudd’s now show on Insiders where the fact that Howard had decline an invitation to appear on the show. Clearly not everybody at the ABC likes Baz.
BMWofVictoria
Give me an episode of ‘Yes Minister’ any day over Rove, it’s far more entertaining and has more laughs than Hughes going crazy for 2mins yelling about random stuff.
Big Blind Dave
Regardless who wins ill be here on Sunday but i should expect the winning side Tory or Labor to have their jibes and then move on to debating politics and the wash up. I can tell you one thing if its purely abuse to be on offer and we tories are thrown out i shant be here that’s for sure. But if political debate is the focus and not personal attacks i shall be here either in joy or disappointment.
Peter Kemp
LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age, go figure lol! So 30 years ago we were headed for a cooler world lol!
255- Mad professor
I saw an ad for libs doing something about grafitti and trafic hoons in my local area- it was almost positive.
Should it be disqualified because the issues have stuff all to do with them?
I agree Yes Minister was funnier than Rove
Gary Nairn is apparently strong on crime…
“considering the polls are narrowing”
This is a strange thing to say in comments on a thread about a 56:44 poll, in the shadows of the election.
Oh well.
Re Rudd on Rove, Rudd is very cleverly selling himself as so un-cool, he is cool. No doubt some marketing genius in Hawker Britton thought of the idea, and it is a good one. By going on Rove, Rudd is not trying to convert anyone. He doesn’t have to; he is a miles in front. He is locking them in.
Compare with Beazley.
Beazley would never have gone on Rove. He would have gone on Insiders and been really earnest, and really boring.
Beazley last year called for Big Brother to be taken off the air. Rudd this year went on FM radio and told the 18-24s that while BB wasn’t his thing, each to his own and all that.
BMW – seems Glen may be suffering from pre- Thatcherite rejection syndrome – early symptoms include a marked decline in sense of humour.
255 – there has been one which says if you vote lib you are voting for $34billion tax cuts, some other plans, an experienced team and for the govt to be able to eat your children.
Or something like that
“LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age, go figure lol! So 30 years ago we were headed for a cooler world lol!”
Glen, a short answer: no they didn’t.
Apparently, at the Swan View Show yesterday, Judi Moylan was there with the Stuart Henry Campaign Caravan with the usual lib stuff about 70% union bosses etc, but there was no crowds around it
Howard promises renewed attack on drugs. Sunday Herald.
“A re-elected coalition government would take control of the welfare payments of people convicted of offences involving hard drugs, Prime Minister John Howard announced today.”
May I be the first to admit. If Howard wins sign me up for some chemical assistance. Another term of him and his cronies would be more than many of us could handle unassisted.
Seems to me Howard is running out of people to attack. Next it will be people who own a dog and don’t clean up it’s deposits. And also people who insist on wearing white thongs on their feet in public.
Can’t wait for next weekend.
I think Father Ted was alot funnier than Rove and just a little funnier than Yes Minister.
I f the arguement were about whether Yes Minister is funnier than Rove you would win Glen, unfootunately classic 1980s BBC political comedies won’t affect the 2007 Australian election (more’s the pity)
Flaneur when it came out it deserved to get flogged as Rudd looked like a tool doing it but now when we want to here about policy it’s stupid to keep reminding us of it. Did Rove actually have anything critical to say or questioning to say of Rudd’s policies or was it a love in??
Mad professor, the only positive ads i’ve seen are the local candidate ads in Victoria but no full length Tory advertising that is positive on the TV WTF is going on here?
I saw at the movies when i took my mother to Crown in the previews we watched a positive Liberal ad and she said why on earth haven’t we been putting these ads out on TV?? I think there is a place for negative ads but if the Tories don’t bring out any positive ads in the last week ill be very surprised and disappointed.
BTW i have not see a positive Labor ad out either?
Hmm, interesting Albert Ross, I bet big Bazza might start to regret his little dummy spit with Julia Gillard this morning.
Crikey, she kneed him where it hurts, and he dutifully obeyed, and then got on with the serious questions. She doesn’t muck around with nonsense, does she?
Arent there only three days of Pol ads to go?
231 – I have only met a couple of swinger/non affiliated Howard supporters in that age-group (well, my age group), and all of them singlehandedly use the same reasoning – that they wont trust the country to Labor given the disgracful job they have done in NSW. And you know what? If i diddnt know any better, that would probably swing my vote that side too… But for every one of them, I have probably 20 peers who will be not voting for the coalition.
Bob Brown and Kevin Rudd were awesome tonight, and I cant see them not winning their respective houses in a weeks time. Gosh im excited that its almost here though!
{LOL the same people who are arguing we’ve got global warming said 30 years ago we were headed for an ice age}
You’ll need to show some evidence there Glen, but even if that was true, you’re obfuscating the issue, like someone else we know, rather too well.
KR @ 271 – that “jilted lover” comment was one of the more cutting ones of the campaign im my opinion.
Davo
Excellent detailed work, my considered opinion – 30 seats – noice!
Blind Dave – yeah 54 works for me as well, 53 is ok, 52 would start me muttering about sampling error and the like.
Antonio @ 227. One of the most insightful postings I’ve seen in a good long while. There is a societal shift happening and they vote.
OH God Glen, I didn’t realise you were a climate change denier as well. I suppose you wouldn’t sail out of view of land in case you sailed off the edge of the earth too?
While we are on funny shows is there anything better than Blackadder
Only 3 more nights of ads….
thank God.
I will form my opinion when I see the result. One thing is already clear, without the liberals the party is unelectable.
Take a long hard look at Britain if you believe otherwise.
#255 No mad professor, not a single positive Lib ad anywhere. You’d have thought they would have at least promoted their tax cuts. Bizarre. Either their marketing is hopeless, or they’re too spooked by the risk of inflation.
I’m waiting for the ads about how creating hundreds of little volunteer hospital boards will reduce waiting lists. I’m sure that would be a winner.
If their policies are so good, why won’t not mention them???
Labor has a mix of positive and negative, which is pretty normal really. I haven’t seen a TOTALLY negative campaign since “the guilty party” ads that brought Kennett to power. And, to be fair, the Libs had good material to work with, and a population desperate to get rid of the Kirner Government.
I don’t detect a desperation to throw Howard out of office, more a desire for a change. If that’s the case, why aren’t the Libs listing clear plans for their next term, the way Rudd is doing for Labor? Rudd’s plan may be superficial (broadband, ed revolution, exit strategy for Iraq, fix public hospitals) but at least I can remember what it is!
Hey Frank @252, isn’t that guitarist rising out the the pool Kevin Rudd?
Latest from the Chaser team-Lynn Allison is their prediction for next PM and, taking his cue from Pakistan, the Rodent will bring in martial law if the next poll doesn’t improve!
Glen is actually the fuhrer, please refer to him as Shatzy Johnny
PURE GOLD- MARGINAL LIB ASHAMED OF HIS PARTY
Just had a call from a mate in Hasluck. apparently he saw Lib Member had a stall and meet and greet in a shopping center in Midland.
There was no reference to Liberal Party, or John Howard, or anything that would tie him to the Liberal Party, not even young Libs helping out.
My mate is not political in any real sense but thought it fair to the punters that he sat on a park bench next to the satll as he ate his lunch and correct Stuart Henry every time he introduced himself.
Stuart would say “I’m Stuart Henry, your local member for Hasluck” my mate would say out loud “Local Liberal member actually, but he hasn’t told that to anyone all day- I wonder why”
Aparently Stuart got really shitty, but would not be drawn on the question about why he wasn’t proclaiming his party, he gave my mate the silent treatment on that question.
Glen,
It wouldn’t matter what Rudd did, you still wouldn’t say he’d win any votes but in any case I don’t think he did it expecting that his appearance on Rove alone would win him any votes.
Edward,
100% correct. They kept saying the Libs were finished all through the Hawke years and we all know how those predictions turned out.
Possibly not the headline Howard was hoping for:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2094097.htm
Glen, my dear contrarian:
A significant proportion of 18-30 voters have only a vague notion of the differences between the two main parties, as they are busy enjoying life, or trying to establish their lives. Some just vote the same way as their parents, and perceive political discourse as distant thunder rumbling above their heads.
But now, thanks to global warming and WorkChoices, a lot have realized that decisions taken in Parliament make a real difference to their lives. Howard has only acknowledged our youngest voters by screwing them – and here we have another politician prepared to engage them on their own turf (notwithstanding the fact Rove jumped the shark 2-3 years ago). Sounds like yet another master-stroke to me.
One cold bright day you’ll acknowledge how comprehensively your man Howard has been outplayed this year Glen. Though personally, just between you and me, I don’t think you are a rusted on Howard voter at all … just a contrarian like Christopher Hitchens or Andrew Bolt, but about 25 IQ points lower.
PS: If Rove said “so your wife is a man!”, Rudd could’ve always replied, “When it comes to garbage night, she definitely wears the pants.” Would have locked in the hen-pecked husband vote there
Oooo yes!
Finally saw the full version of the anti bob baldwin ad.
nice
Black adder yes, Ive got the WW1 ones on dvd
Glen,
Being a Gen X, a git and the beneficiary of an education system underfunded by both the Liberals Huns and the ALP barbarians you will not have read Æsop, I suggest that you obtain a copy of his Fables and study it carefully with particular attention to The Fox and the Grapes.
Snapper at 254 – it is a dogs breakfast
EStJ 238: “If you want an objective opinion dont ask a staffer they know nothing. Its like asking Igor whether Master is going to suck the blood out of 3 or 4 virgins tonight.”
That’s the line of the week!! LOL
Ive always suspected that Baldrick was modelled on Howard. Blackadder on Keating and George on Costello.
Captn Darling is Tony Abbot and General Melchart is Rupert Murdoch.
Glen wrote:
First off, I actually agreed with most of what you wrote. It was only when
I saw that you had written it that I had a What The? moment.
Secondly, we are taking about the same Rove aren’t we? Or is there another
Rove that does hard-hitting political interviews?
I am looking forward to reading about topics more earnest than earwax, though.
244 Glen “Rudd won’t win any votes for going on Rove and to think so is just plain silly. We need less questions about ear wax and who you’d turn gay for and more on Rudd’s agenda and his policies which so far the media have failed miserably to scrutinise.” Glen this is the reason the Liberal Party are seen to be so out of touch.
You’re not suggesting Gerr that Howard might “have a cunning plan” are you?
I dont claim any expertise on the environment but there is a real smell about climate change which reminds me of nuclear disarmament party circa 1984.
There are certain people in the community who do like to believe in the end of the world (ironic given the decline of organised religion) and every so often there has to be a cause or issue, it was nukes in the 80’s its climate change in the naughties.
Both are serious issues and both lent themselves to extreme statements like “getting rid of coal” in the case of climate change. My favourite of course is the walk against warming – real trotfest that one, what will be next ban dogs because they fart and emit gasses.
Cynical trots use issue like these to answer to positions of power and generally dont cause much trouble but the idealistic ones cost people jobs and there livelihood.
Im not too fussed, I think KR wont have a bar of it, he will go through with a show of signing Kyoto and that will be that – unless the G8+ Chinese do a real deal.
Yep, some slap across the face that “jilted lover” jibe. Whoa, that Julia is the smiling assasin, ain’t she somethin’?
I’m sure Bazza will be smarting from that one for a very long time to come…like every time he has to ask questions from the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia.
Ooooh, that sounds good, eh?
Greg
LOL
Yeah, ABout as clever as Baldrick’s.
{Black adder yes, Ive got the WW1 ones on dvd}
Familiar ring of confidence with both Howard and General Melchett:
Melchett: “Nothing but pig headed stubborness will see us through.
…………the Germans will never suspect on the 17th occasion that we’ll carry out the same plan we had 16 times before.”
Glen…how’s this for a new Lib solgan…
“John Howard – tough on cooling, and tough on the causes of cooling”
No 292
I’ve had the opportunity to travel around the world, to talk to people, to read. It hasn’t made me any more willing to join the cesspool of leftists.
I mean Grog
‘This Robin Hood uniform is just in case you come across a French village and it’s fancy dress,
Blackadder – What about if I come across a French village and it isn;t fancy dress Baldrik?
I’m afraid I hadn’t planned for that contingency Captain.’
Glen, lol you are a bit behind the times lol on global warming lol.
John Howard lol says that human activity is causing climate change and that carbon emissions have to be cut back.
This is Liberal Party policy lol. And National Party policy lol.
Lol.
It’s been a while since I heard Andrew Bolt claiming that climate change is the greatest swindle since the last time someone sold the Harbour Bridge.
Has he decided to pull in his ignorant head?
Like the way he claimed on Insiders today that the Labor party has run a ‘brilliant’ strategy?
Who said leopards can’t change their spots?
300 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
The mantra of all climate skeptics.
The answers to the questions, including our ACTUAL impact, compared to other countries are all there if you choose to look for them.
But you’re too busy dreaming up word games to justify your denial.
Glen would also be a member of the Flat Earth Society, remember what happened to Copernicus? Me? I am a member of the Limp Fallers Association. Remember them?
‘This robin hood unifrom is just incase you travel through a frecnh village and it turns out to be a ceepit of leftists.’
‘What if I come across a french village and it isn’t a cesspit of leftists baldrick?’
‘I’m afraid I hadn’t planned for that contingency Captain as I believe every piece of ludicrous crap that comes out of John Howards mouth, eve the stuff he makes up to see if I’ll swallow and guess what? I do everytime….’
Hmm, I just rewatched it – Eric McCusker DOES look like Kevin Rudd circa the Goss years.
#292 Alan H….you were WHAT??! Reading to your daughter???
Get over it. That’s a LATHAM policy. He’s been discredited.
Get your daughter a laptop, mate. Put her in a Kevin’07 T-Shirt and help her log her into a chatroom.
Get with the education revolution, you Luddite.
279
BMWofVictoria Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
While we are on funny shows is there anything better than Blackadder
Looking out on the progress on the Lib’s campaign, one is left with the sneaking suspicion that the tactical genius at the helm is none other than S.Baldrick.
Kirribilli Removals,
Bolt is still a Climate Change skeptic. He regularly goes on about it in the Herald Sun and his blog. He hasn’t changed on that issue.
And what are your qualifications on the environment Pi, you get spiritual when you see the beach or do you have any real knowledge, or maybe you watched inconvenient truth?
I’m with you GP
Those Cesspool Leftists- when will the understand the trickle down effect really works, there are so many examples of it around the world, or at least as many examples as where communism works.
I wouldn’t read shame into the Libs tactic of not having John Howard on their election material. It’s just down to their ‘local campaign’ strategy. Nothing at all to do with shame. It may be stupid… but if it works it works.
BBD,
Do you think any unions in WA will be insolvent in the next 3 years?
This is dedicated to all future ex Liberal MP’s -
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pCWw6W5NEa8
Great advice!
ESJ – Can I ask why you keep bringing up unions being insolvent in a few years? Have I missed something??
# 305 Generic Person Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
cesspool? Hmm… ok.
But there’s a difference between 20 years experience, and one years experience 20 times over. I’ve met lots of people in my travels that are just as ignorant and bigoted as when they walked out of their parents house.
Most people learn as they experience new things. Some people resist learning from their experiences, and want the world to conform to their very narrow-minded world-view. Take a bow.
I’m sorry, but anyone who doesn’t believe in climate change is an idiot.
The question is whether it is substantially being caused by human activity.
(Answer: yes, it is)
On climate change, Howard seems to have adopted a standard line. He says it’s a matter of concern, but doesn’t believe that the world is going to end tomorrow.
This is disingenuous.
One could equally say that interest rates are a concern, but I don’t believe they’ll go up again tomorrow. Or hospitals are a concern, but I don’t believe all the patients will die tomorrow.
It’s an approach that avoids the issue, and tries to whistle at two dogs, going in different directions.
Why do you ask, Two Dogs? (sorry, couldn’t resist)
lol Spiros, lol.
I was curious about BBD’s view, many are in fact technically insolvent and are holding on with grim determination for this election.
Yes, LTEP they left him off because they’re so proud of him as the right leader for this country…
Dogs are not ruminants ESJ, so their farts contain very little methane. And its a myth anyway that most methane comes from the rear end – it is mostly belched by cattle and sheet as their anerobic bacteria digest happily away. I certainly don’t dispute your “I don’t claim any expertise but…” preamble!
No 322
Who is the ignorant bigot again? You seem to be implying that anyone who doesn’t subscribe to pinko leftism is ignorant. How misinformed and wrong you are.
ESJ – And your source is whom?
319- Edward
I certainly believe a change in government won’t save them if they are heading in that direction, it will be their own doing at least in part.
I see some unions growing at the moment and some declining.
Unions that think of themselves as institutions within a framework are declining and those that see themselves as active organisations with higher member involvement at the shop floor are growing.
This one for you BBD @ # 317.
It has a real trekle down effect!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA
Edward,
Again with your obsession about the Unions. Do you check under your bed to see if there are any Union Bosses hiding?
Thanks for the update paul K, as I don’t usually waste my time trying to fathom the rantings of a third rate journalist who fumbles around with scientific data and comes out with the utterly illogical. He’s a disgraceful self-promoter with the usual problem: ego in inverse proportion to intellect.
# 316 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
I’m a senior manager in one of the largest engineering companies in Australia.
LTEP you could not possibly be a Labor supporter when going in to bat and defend Howard, Liberals and Coalition at every turn. They are ashamed of John Howard. He is the real issue of this campaign. If it is just a local campaign tactic, why was Howard and Liberal logo over all Libs campaigns since 1996 bar 2007?
“Tough on drug addicts, tough on the causes of drug addicts.”
(promiscuous injections)
No 323
Samuel K, please cite a definitive and 100% conclusive statement from the IPCC or anyone else that confirms anthropogenic global warming.
Can’t find anything? Because no such statement exists.
RGee-
Look at http://www.airc.gov.au and take the organisation files link which shows all the balance sheets for unions in Australia, many of the 2007 annual reports are coming in and demonstrate what in liquidators parlance is termed “inability to meet debts as and when they fall due”, ie insolvency.
It doesn’t mean that at all Grog, the Liberal’s are probably just attempting to counter the presidential style campaign of Labor with a ‘team’ campaign (very Australian).
I wouldn’t say it’s particularly smart… but as I said… if it works it works. They’ve literally got nothing to lose.
Ryan Voter at # 144 …
The seat of Ryan may be even more in play after page 8 of todays Sunday Mail reported that sitting member Michael Johnson (LIB) was booked by Police on Thursday for driving at 55 km/h in a 40 km/h school zone, and also that he failed to attend a candidates debate on climate change the previous week.
Is that the best you can come up with GP? Calling me a communist?
Stick to the funny-pages kid.
Generic Person, going to Rottnest doesn’t count.
333 PaulK
I dont mind Edwards questions, i believe they are genuine
Nah Paul K there all (the union bosses) running for parliament instead!
STOP THE PRESS!
Game for a laugh?
The new Janet Airheadson is up on The GG. Well it WAS up and it got pulled, she’s got a new photo, (skanking it up) and the blurb read something about Aus becoming a welfare society….
Now I’m trying to work out how she will twist the facts to make out that it is not Howards fault but it is Rudd’s fault and especially Gillard’s fault…and um…not errr….Howard’s um….doing.
Yes, the post is a complete waste of space. It’s the material I have to work with see? Im sorry I brought ‘her’ up.
Does anyone have a report on the South Australian seats? Also, it would be good to know what effect the Workers Rights campaigns have had around Australia. Depending on who you talk to, they could be the equivalent of another campaign running next to the Labor campaign.
Yes v.interested BBD
But which union is growing, the SDA maybe? any others?
Generic Person Says: “Samuel K, please cite a definitive and 100% conclusive statement…”
This shows your ignorance in how Science works. Like most global warming skeptics, they probably believe in God, but not in something that thousands of scientists around the world, experts in climate science, have said is almost certainly caused by humans.
Oh, and I guess you will ask, but I have a degree in science.
So Pi means diddlies in terms of environmental quals. That tells me you like maths anything else?
I wouldn’t think putting your leader on the leaflet would devalue the team.
From memory the ALP used the same excuse in 96 when Keating was left off.
Look at Queensland for recent history.
The UAP, disintegrated after suffering a heavy defeat in the 1943 election, from memory Labor won with 56% of the popular vote, from that mess we got the Liberal party.
If Morgon is right we are entering old territory not seen for 63 years.
If anyone is interested in learning about how unions operate, their history and current challenges in the new environment the best and most up to date book is called “Power at Work”
It has been read by unionists and employers alike and you will be able to make your own assumptions about where the movement is heading.
Alan H, can we keep the abuse on a leash please.
ESJ – I currently can’t get access to the files, something is wrong with the AIRC website. But which unions…?
@337 Very Generic
Show us anything in science, medicine, you name it, that is 100% predictive and or accurate.
‘337
Generic Person Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:41 pm
No 323
Samuel K, please cite a definitive and 100% conclusive statement from the IPCC or anyone else that confirms anthropogenic global warming.’
Oh GP. Please cite one that doesn’t…no let’s not go around in circles, but accept that this is a pretty serious issue. There is no need for red herrings really, just some positivism.
#337
Not a valid argument. Also, junk science. Big assumption, I know, but if you actually want to learn something you could do worse than reading here or here.
3 most likely to fall over in first 3 years :
NUW
ASU
AMWU
Back from long and enjoyable Labor hacks’ dinner…
Are we getting a Newspoll tonight?
GP, I put it to you that you don’t believe in climate change becuse that would mean that you would be morally obliged/compelled to do something about it.
Your selfishness blinds your ability to objectively analyse the science.
Here’s a start for you from some of the local chaps at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation – you might have heard of it?
http://www.csiro.au/resources/psrs.html
In particular, “Why has our climate changed?
Much of the warming since 1950 is due to human activities that have increased greenhouse gases.”
Sooo no Newpoll tonight then?
Hmmm.. well I’m willing to put $100 on it that says you are wrong.
#335
I think the inverse square law of gravity does a pretty good job…
352 BBD -
Michael Crosby, Power at Work -
That book is very dangerous, basically advocates a return to a closed shop and admits organising employees is too hard.
300
Edward StJohn Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
“I dont claim any expertise on the environment but…”
….
… you are ready to dismiss any talk of climate change, as if it were an example of a conspiracy theory or mass delusion. Why don’t you take the trouble to become an expert on the environment. Then we could take you seriously.
GP,
Perhaps they’re hiding the evidence for Global Warming in the same place as Sadaam’s Weapons of Mass Destruction? I always find it interesting that extreme Right Wingers need proof to turn off a light bulb, but no proof to bomb or invade a country.
EsJ… clearly you don’t know what a multi-national engineering consultancy does. But then again… you don’t really know much about most subjects you talk about.
DeSal plants, Chemical treatment plants, Oil refineries, pulp plants, water treatment plants, Green star buildings, roads, cars, power plants, solar farms, wind farms, and every substitute for any one of those things, and any study that either justifies, or doesn’t, for any one of those things either now or in the future.
It’s called having a good understanding. You should try it some time.
‘Sooo no Newpoll tonight then?’
Albert F – I don’t think so. Just climate change denial and anonymous bloggers attacking other anonymous bloggers environmentalist creds. Funny AND informative.
Under what barrier conditions? And must these conditions always apply? And if they do? And if they dont? Then we can argue about temporal variables.
Growing Unions in WA
LHMU (Miscelaneous and Hospitality)
CSA (State Public Sector- but dont let that fool you, in other states they decline)
CPSU (Federal Public Sector- iin the face of pure assault)
ANF (Nurses union)
SDA (Yes the retail union)
CEPU Communications (Aussie Post- also in face of hostility)
I am not sure if there are others, but the declining list is significant because density public+private in WA is now 16%- US figures
The difference in membership levels for these unions is very interesting because these are the unions that have taken orgainsing out of the workplace to the home of members due to I.R. laws. the other unions still rely on limited workplace access.
best summation of the whole day Pancho.
ESJ please stop your union bashing. Just because you haven’t had real life experience & at one time may have had to join a union it don’t mean that they should be demonised whilst you wear your rose colored glasses.
Unions have help Australia attain one of the best standards of living in the world & no amount of right wing bile can deny that.
Phil is on the money, these so called marginal polls are a waste of time, you would be far better of applying a state wide results using the previous non-uniform swing patterns of volitilty for these seats, moderated by some local effects such as retiring popular member or dud candidate. The commercials are copying that goose from UMR that Latham and Beasley used
bO
I unlike others acknowledge if I have limited knowledge in an area. On climate change there is a huge element of taking claims as facts, and where there are facts these are used to extrapolate assumptions like shutting down coal and power stations.
IN NSW we had a group of crazy trots who tried to shut a power station on friday. Crazy stuff.
364
Certainly Power at work advocates the complete oposite of what you suggest. I assume it was said jokingly.
No 360
Samuel, I do believe in Global Warming and Climate Change, but I do not believe that humans can manipulate climate.
304
Generic Person Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
“….. It hasn’t made me any more willing to join the cesspool of leftists.”
…..
Cesspool? Are you an ideological plumber? Once again, you must rate us all as fools.
Non Person @ 337
According to the IPCC report released by the UN today (yes, that bunch of card-carrying commies), the scientists give it about a 90% chance that global warming has an anthropogenic cause. That’s very nearly as good as you’ll get on anything – such as say, UV exposure causing skin cancer…
Geez EsJ you have to be a bit more subtle or we’ll all know that you are actually Andrew Bolt.
Charles the Libs wont disband and start a new party it would be admitting defeat.
Plus the UAP was a unique political Party with ex Labor and Nationalist members, it’s not like that today.
If that happened Rudd would be in for 3 terms at least, the best worst case scenario is Rudd by 4 seats or so and maybe an upset in 2010 if we’re lucky.
William with respect i would ask that you delete Grrs comment about me being the fuhrer. I think this type of abuse in not in keeping with your sites ethics.
see #
285
Gerr Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
Glen is actually the fuhrer, please refer to him as Shatzy Johnny
“which union is growing, the SDA maybe? any others?”
The nurses unions in NSW and Victoria. Even the nurses in private hospitals and nursing homes are nearly all union members.
BBD
16% wow – thats terrible, real question of survival then. Good Luck
AG01
No problem with your last sentence, but what have done for me lately AG01, ie since compulsory super in 1987?
374 Edward StJohn Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:52 pm
The ALP is making no such assertions that it is. You know, when I don’t know something about a subject, I don’t talk about it.
You really should try to do that too.
Make no mistake about it… coal power stations WILL have to change their ways. Companies like mine built them, and my company and companies like mine will invariably replace them.
Learn about the subject, THEN talk about it.
Anyone else notice that the individual seat betting only really gets a big move straight after a poll is published?
So much for the betting being the ’smart’ indicator. You’d have to conclude that the polls drive the betting from what’s occured in the last few days.
363 Dangerous- The inverse square law of gravity is wrong. Its very close for most objects but it is hopeless with very large or very small objects. I think Einstein showed that a while ago…
Old dog,
This really sounds like a wacko conspiracy theory. A vast majority of the world’s best climatologists say climate change is a serious problem, are you suggesting that they are ALL misleading us?
I’m not questioning that scientists disagree on the severity of the problem, but the general consensus is that there IS a problem that requires changes to the way we produce and use energy.
I completely agree, this was just a stupid way to protest. After they shut the power station down then restart it the burners spend an few hours operating at a suboptimal temperature which releases more carbon oxides than when the burners are running at regular temperatures. So their protest led to more carbon emissions than would normally be the case.
Pi @ 383
I just hope that companies like yours are learning how to build the kinds of large-scale solar electric plants that we’ll be needing to meet our 20/20 and 50/50 goals… There’s money in clean energy – probably a whole lot of it over the next fifty years.
Will “Under the Whitlam Labor Govt. interest rates hit 10.38%, under the Hawke labor Govt they were….” etc. work at all this election?
I have only seen these ads in the last few days. Is there a strategy to leaving them so late (until after a rate rise no less)?
I am incapable of objectively analysing whether they work because I have a reasonable understanding of how the economy actually works. Someone please help – objectively if possible.
Good evening Glen and Edward St John: 5 more days left of your beloved Howard Government. Enjoy it boys!
Ok you can call me the fuhrer if you like.
Subscribe to Scientific America look up climate change and focus on the graphics that show how the poller ice caps are disappearing.
But really this is not relevant. You lot are trying to win an election, why would any sane politician take on a view that is support by a bunch of right wing nutter and not supported by the science community.
The Liberal party has been wedged; walks away shaking his head in disbelief at their stupidity.
GP, you sound an awful lot like cigarette companies asking for proof that smoking causes cancer before acknowledging there is a problem. For the record, before I am also accused of being uneducated about climate change, I am a scientist and an engineer. If you like, I could go through the infrared absorption characteristics of greenhouse gases and why that is leading to climate change, but I’m more than aware that nothing I could say could change your mind.
# 376 Generic Person Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
We managed to stop the ozone hole in the antarctic from expanding by phasing out CFC’s. Thank christ no-one like you was in charge then.
Thank christ no-one like you is going to be in charge in the future.
You know PI,
If you accept the premise that we are emitting to much crap into the atmosphere, the climate change debate basically boils down to 2 things:
1) Do we (and China and India etc) voluntarily reduce our own living standards by reducing emissions ( which wouldnt work because of the prisoners dilemma ie someone always cheatss)
or
2) Use the market to price these things and hope human ingenuity does the rest through new technologies.
Essentially people wont do 1 honestly and willingingly and we’ll only do 2 when we create the market incentives.
Your view on this question is basically determinative of whether your an individualist or collectivist i suspect.
Ironic, isn’t it Pi, that big business has been ahead of the public on climate change, and where running the slide rule over the ramifications at least from a decade or so ago. Lots of very smart people could see it coming, but had to wait for the public and then governments to catch up.
It’s rather amusing to hear the ill-informed talking about CC, it’s like they think it’s an argument about religion, about whether one ‘believes’ in or not!
Generic Person i agree with your position wholeheartedly, i agree that there is climate change but I do not believe that humans can manipulate climate, if they did how would that explain the massive changes in climate during the ice ages and the medieval period??
Sure it wouldn’t hurt to address CO2 emissions but let’s not go nuts here and costs jobs because of the Green lobby.
Nobody wants to talk polls/psephological matters?
Maybe we could have a rotating fuhrer policy?
EStJ @ 300 That was absolutely the most pathetic comment ever. You aren’t an expert on anything, except your own ego. The assembled opinion of thousands of the world’s most eminent scientists, and you say they are a bunch of ‘trots’. You and Glen make a delightful pair.
Believe it or not, intelligent people are able to analyse data to come up with testable hypotheses, and then subject these to experimental tests. Its called science. My three eldest children all work in this general area. You haven’t got the faintest idea of that on which you fart into the wind.
Politics is not the real world. Short term expediency in line with electoral cycles is highly likely to lead to actual disaster. Right wing religious nut cases like George W Bush and Osama bin Laden and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are actually in positions of influence, even though organised religion is, just possibly, declining. Each one of them is sufficiently unhinged that they may well make Nuclear Armageddon a reality, even if 20 years late. Global warming is here and now. It is real, and the consequences of ignoring it will be catastrophic. As and when it happens, believe you me, your pathetic bleatings will not taken into account.
But dream on, I am sure you will craft a really ‘nice’ few lines pointing out how the ‘trots’ were just deluded fools.
cheers,
Alan H
BBD
Do you think WA will refer its IR powers federally if Rudd wins?
Ill talk polls! Waddaya gat?
On the release IPCC report – it has to be worth the ALP pushing it over next the news cycle.
So while Howard is trying to get a wedge going with his “pushing more druggies into more crime” policy – surely Rudd can use this over the next cycle?
HH – Nah, the tories are too busy trolling.
397 Howard Hater Yes it would be nice, but the Flat Earthers and the Creationalists are out in full force.
When Morgan do their phone polls what % of calls are to mobile phones, I wonder? None of the Y gen, and only some of X, have landlines or can ever be found at home.
‘Labor View from Broome’
No 393
But there was demonstrable proof and evidence that CFCs damaged the ozone layer, whereas currently, much of gloabl warming science is based on computer modelling.
EJS. If you join a union here are some of the benefits & services they do provide -
Your union will always put the protection of members’ jobs, wages and working conditions first.
But, because we are a progressive union we recognise that there is much more that we can do.
We have developed the extremely impressive range of services listed in this site, and will continue to improve and extend this list.
These days we don’t aim to protect just you – we are striving to ensure your family is looked after as well.
That’s why we have introduced
FUNERAL BENEFITS – for financial members, their partner and dependant children
CHEAPER HOME LOANS
FREE LEGAL HELP
FREE COUNSELLING – for financial members, their partner and dependant children
ETC. – the list goes on.
If you haven’t yet joined the union – you should do so quickly because you never know when you may need our help.
We have your interests at heart and guarantee that when you join you will get top value for your money.
RGee why is it when you lot talk up Rudd’s appearance on Rove to high heaven that is not trolling but whenever we tories open our mouthes we are trolling do not belittle our contribution to this blog RGee.
Chris B i can hardly be a Flat Earther or a Creationist if i am an atheist? Just so you know?
Any tips for Newspoll??
Ill go out on a limb and say 52-48.
The next Liberal Party Prime Minister ( perhaps many years away ) will be a Greenie in comparison to the current party and also a Republican. Howard is the last Climate Change skeptic we have as leader of the nation. Years from now all you skeptics will be embarrassed to admit that you followed Howard and Bush’s line on Climate Change.
You ever see the 80s Reagan Political ad about the bear in the woods Very Generic ?
376
Generic Person Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
No 360
“Samuel, I do believe in Global Warming and Climate Change, but I do not believe that humans can manipulate climate.”
….
GP, “manipulation” is not the concept to use. The first issue is cause and effect. Is human activity causing climate change? Almost certainly,on all the evidence. Can we do anything about it? Maybe. Should we try? We’d be very very foolish not to.
Since you are this blog’s “village idiot”, I’m sure you will not want to try at all.
No more climate change for today.
# 387 Marko Says: November 18th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
If people pay, we build. It’s that simple. When energy costs increase to double what they are today, those options become economically viable. And they WILL increase to that cost because of the cost of carbon-credits as part of a kyoto protocol arrangement.
There is no real alternative, and the governments (and their supporters) that continue to deny its existence, or resist measures to solve it, are slowly AND surely being consigned to the scrap-heap of history. It’s good they continue to ramble on about the subject, because it continues to highlight whats at stake, and the consequences of letting the liberals continue on as if ignoring it will make the problem go away.
Enforcement of climate change ban to commence now.
I agree if it Rudd by 4 seats then the Liberal party will continue. Unfortunately it will not put the pressure on the party to implement the required changes. The takeover by the religious right will continue.
Not going to happen unless there are big changes in the Liberal party, you got rid of the liberals, it is now going to come back and bite you big time.
William what about Flat Earth?
Glen @ 408 – Settle petal…
Sorry, Chris?
Just a joke.
The last Newspoll was 55-45, rite?
If so, I’m saying 54-46 – nothing to back that up, just a hunch…
I’m goin’ mad with comment deletion here.
I agree with William. If you want to debate climate change, there are other boards for those discussions. Aren’t we meant to be talking polls here?
I’ll say once again, watch where the leaders are campaigning.
The Rodent was in Greenway yesterday – margin of 10%.
I’m going to predict Labor wins every seat in Western Sydney, even Macarthur and Greenway.
And I think Labor will get Hughes back too
Glen,
The people who are praising Rudd’s performance are not trolling.Have you read your Aesop yet?
I reckon 56-44
In theory at least, this Newspoll should be close to the final outcome, which I expect to be 52 – 53. So I will go for 53/47…. to Labor.
Going back to something raised earlier tonight, has anyone else (apart from mad cow in Paterson) seen any ads from Labor talking about individual MP’s voting records in Parliament relating to Workchoices?
I reckon ads based on that would be really effective – it takes away the “incumbency” factor whilst focusing attention to Workchoices. I know that these sorts of ads work really well in the US House of Reps elections, particularly when Democrats try to attack moderate Republicans in Democratic-leaning seats.
What a narrow minded bunch.
Economies thrive on change ( and war). Converting our economy to sustainable alternatives is enormous change. There are many business opportunities ( would have been more if Howard and co hadn’t stuffed up R&D investment).
I just can’t get over how short sighted you lot are.
well done, william. it’s your blog and you should call the shotz
No 424
Our comments are not intended to bait anyone. Indeed, they exist to provide balance to an extremely one sided debate.
When is the damn newspoll? There;ll be one on Saturday.
Kev
That bit about mobile phones and young kids has been mentioned before, yet youth vote for labor is very high, may also explain why F2F is higher.
I’d reckon Newspoll around 58-42.
Thanks William, and it is hard not to get caught up in it.
Gerr, I might have been unfair in deleting your previous comment. Arguably. Anyway, can’t be undone I’m afraid.
The ALP will not win Fisher. I live in Fisher & there is little local evidence of an election here, just the odd leering Slipper on a grassy noll & occasional TV ads about hoons. Most TV ads are the national ALP/LNP ads.
As I said some weeks ago the only chance is that the independent will outpoll the ALP & get enough preferences to roll slippery. Unfortunately the independent FM breakfast announcer is running a “Vote 1 Caroline” campaign &…you guessed it….there are 2 Caroline/Carolyns as candidates, splitting the Caroline vote.
So there’s a newspoll tomorrow?
If it was a good one for the Libs, Sky would have leaked it already.
GP
Well now there are no sides as there is no debate. Problem solved.
Evening all, nothing like the cool breeze on ya face as you nail up Labor posters on a Sunday night. Cheer/Abuse tally 5-2, and I’m in a safe lib seat.
Tomorrow or Tuesday.
Edward (sorry for late reply- just watched Rudd on Rove)
WA State Governments dont hand anything over to the Feds- LIb or Labor
Mirror system is the closest it will get in my opinion.
ESJ I doubt it. I don’t see any of the states referring many of their powers.
HH,
Not sure if there’s a Newspoll tomorrow. There was no mention of it on Agenda at 9:30 tonight, so I guess we’ll have to check The Oz’s website around midnight (I was tempted to say ‘the old fashioned way’, but I realise checking a newspaper website for polling results isn’t exactly old-fashioned…)
I think we need to let go of the days of Newspolls of 56 and 58. People are actually close to voting now and they ain’t gonna vote 56 or 58 in Labor’s favour. Ain’t gonna happen in a national election in this country.
That’s ok, Ill just wander the streets and tell passing strangers about my hardluck story on this blog, how I got blackbanned by the powers that be for telling the inconvenient truth…DOH I meantioned climate change again!
When is the newspoll due? I think the final poll will be 53.7 to 46.3 in Labor’s favor and i htink the polls this week will refelect that.
I can confidently tell you there’s not a chance in hell Labor will win Berowra. In fact, there’s no election campaign at all going on in this seat. Both ALP and Libs are focused more on Bennelong.
I predict either of the following:
1. Coalition victory with 150 seat total majority
2. Coalition victory with 1 seat majority.
LTEP,
I am told SA and Tas are just waiting for the poll (and Rudd) to hand over IR powers. That would make 3 states out of IR altogether hence I think it would be hard for the other 3 to stay in, but BBD may be v.right about WA – I think from memory they still have a state Family Law Court.
haha GP. Tabitha already beat you to the first prediction.
1 seat majority would be interesting. The Whips’ lives would be hell.
Coincidentally, are you a doctor?
They do ESJ. I used to work just across the street from it.
Totally off-topic,
But can anyone remember the blogger/commenter who left after accusing William of being Glen in disguise?
I’m just trying to think of the most amusing/idiotic commenters that we’ve had on this site this year…
agreed HH, if the ALP wins berowra, then it would have won the entire north shore first.
ESJ
Yes they do have a state family law court.
Even they State libs were against workchoices because it was federal (even if it was a copy of thier previous IR laws under Dick Court)
The sad truth, both outcomes are pretty close to equally unlikely.
George. As you live in Higgins another blogger had stated who claims to live in your local that he has not received any Labor party paraphernalia at all since this election was called. I thought that was strange.
Can you tell me as a Higgins local what the local Labor campaign has been like & do have a pulse on the ground if the swing is on to get rid of ‘TIP’
Likewise in Curtin, HH, no campaing, no mention of the H-word, still less the R-word. It seems politics is something that happens in other, less serene places.
Whilst it hasn’t been officially released (and won’t be until tomorrow night) my mail says that the latest Newspoll 2PP has Labor leading 54-46, and a relatively sharp increase in the Greens vote.
What a total waste of a poll.
Surely polling 50 people per seat will tell you not much at all, so easy to get a bias sample, especially in diverse seats. AND the final figure TPP can’t be much value either since it is not a national representative sample. All the poll might say is that Labor seems to be reasonably well ahead overall in the marginals.
How difficult is it to do a reasonable accurate poll of a single seat? Each seat would have its traps.
I get the feeling these marginal polls are useless unless they have bigger samples and are repeated over time – like the national poll, to confirm level of votes and trends.
I think they should stick to their national phone polls and only do marginal seats if they are going to do decent samples sizes and repeat them a few times. IMHO.
This must be HUBRIS!
Organised transport of new big screen for the night, not mine, to the party venue, laptop broadband access to William!
Absolutely nothing going on here in Lowe. In fact, if it wasn’t for this site, I probably wouldn’t even be aware that an election is going on (I tend to watch more pay TV than free-to-air…)
Swing Lowe, it was OLLIE a.k.a. STROP. Happy times.
I live in Higgins. I’ve received lots of stuff.
Apparently Kevin Rudd is an economic conservative. I have the pamphlet to prove it.
Peter Costello’s stuff went straight into the bin.
I’m not sure who Glen is, but Tabitha loooks like Alexander Downer in fancy dress.
In 5 weeks, I’ve received in my letterbox 2 pamplets from Phil Ruddock, and nothing from Labor, but that’s not uncommon, Labor usually don’t bother here until the last week.
Toby, is your mail always right? (now that sounds paranoid!)
Ah yes, STROP – just as entertaining/moronic as Cerdic Conan (a.k.a. Sir Dick Onan).
So says Swing Lowe!
The polls are so predictable that I have even noticed journalists (and actually, even William here!) quoting figures without even indicating who “won” the poll. It is just assumed to be Labor. It really does seem to be flatlining and they may well win their TPP but still might go down to the wire on seats.
Finally saw an ad idea from the Coalition that was really late coming, I expected it weeks ago. If the Libs had brains, they’d just blitz everything with the mantra “Do you really want Wall to Wall Labor?”, like Keating did on the “No GST” 1993 Hewson campaign. Worked a treat just in that last week.
Labor, by contrast, is doing the smart thing generally, by keeping a lot of positive smiley ads out there. The dingbuzz ad is going to drive people insane though and just makes Rudd look like a front row class nerd.. that most people hated, though likely, a few on this site have a soft spot for!
I wouldn’t expect much at all to happen in Higgins. Smirky is safe!
STROP, yes he got so annoying and became so much of a Sir Echo I v.naughtily did the identity fraud for which I was severely admonished.
Thank Pi…any more?
I would like to explain the way the EXACT number of seats that Labor can win can be calculated according to the betting market.
To my knowledge this has never been mentioned before so I will claim it as – a patent to Centre.
Step 1. List the prices for Labor for each of the 150 seats (use Centrebet).
Step 2. Take the number 100 and divide by the price for each seat.
Step 3. Add each figure for each seat in step 2. to arrive at a total.
Step 4. Divide the total figure arrived at in step 3. by 100 to arrive at the exact total number of seats that can be won according to the laws of probability.
I don’t think anyone is paying attention to any of the political ads any more. Every one seems to be sick of them.
I think what they were saying this morning on Insiders about people just wanting something to reassure them of their decision is pretty spot on. Whilst the wall to wall Labor governments one is silly it could give people a reason to reassure them that it’s ok to vote Howard again. Possible, not likely.
I think it the Libs lose the election they will do it with a low 2PP and manage it with their marginals’ campaigns. I don’t see them getting over 50% 2PP this election.
and what do you predict centre? See my 82 ALP or raise it?
I’ll put my cards on the table – I’m a Lefty, and will probably vote Socialist Alliance (in Grayndler), so naturally I’m hoping for a Labor win.
That said, I’ve put up 200.00 of my hard earned on the Coalition and expect to be spending the winnings on Sunday at the local Irish pub.
My tip? Labor win the majority vote (at least 52%), pick up 10 or so seats and control of the Senate. Provided they hang onto Rudd, they romp home next time. They will have made their currently marginal seats safe, and made a whole swag of currently safe Lib seats marginal.
Sadly, we will be waiting another 3 years (or just over 3 – Kevin-11!) to see Nick Minchin weep, as he sits next to Kerry and Antony at the ABC studios.
If i thought ShowsOn, blindoptimist and Swing Lowe were tough, STROP did not like me one iota.
Ah STROP he and Cedric Conan would get along well wouldn’t they lol.
AussieG, I think you’re overestimating the ‘localness’ of any federal campaign. I’m not voting for my local ALP candidate, I’m voting to remove John Howard.
Most people feel the same way.
Off to bed! Good night all, especially you Glen!
ESJ
the line ‘I think we had better take our medication” was funny.
I just saw one about what labor do to the young
Does anyone really believ this is the same ALP as the one of 11.5 yrs ago?
You’re a very bad boy sometimes, ESJ.
But I love you Dr Strangelove!
… I mean Glenie.
470 Centre- Sorry, wrong on two counts.
1. This doesnt take into account bookie margins (if you did the converse for LNP it wouldn’t add up to 150)
2. Simon Jackman already does it properly and the answer is 79.9 currently.
I forgot Arbie Jay when was that?
Hi Aussieguru01.
I live near Fawkner park, in the block that encompasses Punt/Commercial/Chappel/Toorak st/roads. We have received ONE letter from Cossie, and nothing else at all. We received something from Labor a while back.
I have been speaking to a lot of people who live in Higgins. From neighbours, friends/mums at school our boy goes to, people I work with, also many traders throughout some of the major shopping strips. The people I interact with mostly are professionals and parents of young children. I have not met anyone who is going to vote Liberal (at least no onw who will admit it). And some are Liberal voters, who are in general embarrased as to the kind of politics the Libs have subscribed to over the past few years, and are now interested in Rudd. Some will be putting in a donkey vote as they can’t bring themselves to vote for Labor.
I have come across many people who feel they want to get involved with helping to get rid of the Libs this time around. Like myself; I have voted for Labor in the past, but have never felt compelled to get out there and help. Partly because I am in a safe Lib seat. There is evidence that the swing here will be as large a 5-6% and hence a real chance of Costello losing his seat.
No 448
No, I’m not a doctor.
I agree, ShowsOn – if Glen didn’t exist, we’d have to invent him, just to keep things interesting on this blog.
That said, GP, ESJ and (to a much lesser extent) Tabitha do a more than adequate job in that regard…
OK Pi. I hope there are alot more like you!
During your pre-barking phase.
TofK, I haven’t done it yet.
Hear, hear!
I will be very interested to see how Makin pans out, not because of Bob Day’s strong affiliations with the HR Nicholls Society and his war on minimum wage that he seems to never mention, but since his campaign is very unconventional. Watching Stateline on Friday and being a former Makin resident, I’m not sure whether it will flop or fly. All indications so far are that it will not work (esp. given Zappia’s strong standing), but as I was driving through Makin the other day his new posters show pictures of people (a veteran, newlyweds, a family, and a single person) with the caption “I’m/We’re Voting for Bob Day”. My initial reaction to the posters was fairly negative , but I’m curious how it wil affect the unwashed masses who don’t have any real interest in politics and make their decision on the day.
Someone also mentioned that Liberal Party staffers are suggesting that the Libs are ahead in Wakefield (as well as Morgan’s rather poor analysis)… I’d suggest that based on other marginal polls in South Australia, that that’s great news for the ALP in Sturt and Boothby!
‘Mein Howie…..i can WALK!!!!’
Ah ShowsOn i think on the Friday we’ll have to put down our upset seats and our pick for the first seat to fall to whatever party and perhaps predictions on 2PP votes for the election itself. Just to spice things up.
And the Title of Movie’s we’ll we watching on Sunday.
If we lose ‘Downfall’
If we win ‘It’s a wonderful life’
While we are on limited coverage – I’m in Grey at the moment (travelling through) – No sign of an election. The very occasional poster of someone with a beard and a green candidate who has a “before” photo.
Andrew, if the coalition wins, I’M EMIGRATING!!! I refuse to live in a country with the great divider as its ‘leader’ any longer. 11.5 years is about 11.5 years too long thank you. There is no viable government under Howard, just focus on winning the 24hr news cycle. That and destroying the opportunity society: equality of opportunity!
Mea Culpa William, but i do try to be original and to entertain. I think being boring or a camp follower is the greatest of sins.
The ding buzz ads are probabaly for the non-interested undecided voters. Setting up a positive association with Rudd Labor and, a negative one for Howard.
When they get into the polling box – slight positive feeling for Rudd Labor. Rove helps – postive product recognition.
Newspoll should be around 55/45.
Nothing has happened help Howard and he has had a few negatives. Rudd is looking clean and positive not associated with any difficulties, whilst Howard has had to fight off a few negatives. Rudd is going to get a large percentage of the undecideds.
Is this our first promise of leaving Australia this year? Surely not.
No 494
John Howard has not divided anything. It’s just a left wing conspiracy.