Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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678 Comments
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agreed HH, if the ALP wins berowra, then it would have won the entire north shore first.
ESJ
Yes they do have a state family law court.
Even they State libs were against workchoices because it was federal (even if it was a copy of thier previous IR laws under Dick Court)
The sad truth, both outcomes are pretty close to equally unlikely.
George. As you live in Higgins another blogger had stated who claims to live in your local that he has not received any Labor party paraphernalia at all since this election was called. I thought that was strange.
Can you tell me as a Higgins local what the local Labor campaign has been like & do have a pulse on the ground if the swing is on to get rid of ‘TIP’
Likewise in Curtin, HH, no campaing, no mention of the H-word, still less the R-word. It seems politics is something that happens in other, less serene places.
Whilst it hasn’t been officially released (and won’t be until tomorrow night) my mail says that the latest Newspoll 2PP has Labor leading 54-46, and a relatively sharp increase in the Greens vote.
What a total waste of a poll.
Surely polling 50 people per seat will tell you not much at all, so easy to get a bias sample, especially in diverse seats. AND the final figure TPP can’t be much value either since it is not a national representative sample. All the poll might say is that Labor seems to be reasonably well ahead overall in the marginals.
How difficult is it to do a reasonable accurate poll of a single seat? Each seat would have its traps.
I get the feeling these marginal polls are useless unless they have bigger samples and are repeated over time – like the national poll, to confirm level of votes and trends.
I think they should stick to their national phone polls and only do marginal seats if they are going to do decent samples sizes and repeat them a few times. IMHO.
This must be HUBRIS!
Organised transport of new big screen for the night, not mine, to the party venue, laptop broadband access to William!
Absolutely nothing going on here in Lowe. In fact, if it wasn’t for this site, I probably wouldn’t even be aware that an election is going on (I tend to watch more pay TV than free-to-air…)
Swing Lowe, it was OLLIE a.k.a. STROP. Happy times.
I live in Higgins. I’ve received lots of stuff.
Apparently Kevin Rudd is an economic conservative. I have the pamphlet to prove it.
Peter Costello’s stuff went straight into the bin.
I’m not sure who Glen is, but Tabitha loooks like Alexander Downer in fancy dress.
In 5 weeks, I’ve received in my letterbox 2 pamplets from Phil Ruddock, and nothing from Labor, but that’s not uncommon, Labor usually don’t bother here until the last week.
Toby, is your mail always right? (now that sounds paranoid!)
Ah yes, STROP – just as entertaining/moronic as Cerdic Conan (a.k.a. Sir Dick Onan).
So says Swing Lowe!
The polls are so predictable that I have even noticed journalists (and actually, even William here!) quoting figures without even indicating who “won” the poll. It is just assumed to be Labor. It really does seem to be flatlining and they may well win their TPP but still might go down to the wire on seats.
Finally saw an ad idea from the Coalition that was really late coming, I expected it weeks ago. If the Libs had brains, they’d just blitz everything with the mantra “Do you really want Wall to Wall Labor?”, like Keating did on the “No GST” 1993 Hewson campaign. Worked a treat just in that last week.
Labor, by contrast, is doing the smart thing generally, by keeping a lot of positive smiley ads out there. The dingbuzz ad is going to drive people insane though and just makes Rudd look like a front row class nerd.. that most people hated, though likely, a few on this site have a soft spot for!
I wouldn’t expect much at all to happen in Higgins. Smirky is safe!
STROP, yes he got so annoying and became so much of a Sir Echo I v.naughtily did the identity fraud for which I was severely admonished.
Thank Pi…any more?
I would like to explain the way the EXACT number of seats that Labor can win can be calculated according to the betting market.
To my knowledge this has never been mentioned before so I will claim it as – a patent to Centre.
Step 1. List the prices for Labor for each of the 150 seats (use Centrebet).
Step 2. Take the number 100 and divide by the price for each seat.
Step 3. Add each figure for each seat in step 2. to arrive at a total.
Step 4. Divide the total figure arrived at in step 3. by 100 to arrive at the exact total number of seats that can be won according to the laws of probability.
I don’t think anyone is paying attention to any of the political ads any more. Every one seems to be sick of them.
I think what they were saying this morning on Insiders about people just wanting something to reassure them of their decision is pretty spot on. Whilst the wall to wall Labor governments one is silly it could give people a reason to reassure them that it’s ok to vote Howard again. Possible, not likely.
I think it the Libs lose the election they will do it with a low 2PP and manage it with their marginals’ campaigns. I don’t see them getting over 50% 2PP this election.
and what do you predict centre? See my 82 ALP or raise it?
I’ll put my cards on the table – I’m a Lefty, and will probably vote Socialist Alliance (in Grayndler), so naturally I’m hoping for a Labor win.
That said, I’ve put up 200.00 of my hard earned on the Coalition and expect to be spending the winnings on Sunday at the local Irish pub.
My tip? Labor win the majority vote (at least 52%), pick up 10 or so seats and control of the Senate. Provided they hang onto Rudd, they romp home next time. They will have made their currently marginal seats safe, and made a whole swag of currently safe Lib seats marginal.
Sadly, we will be waiting another 3 years (or just over 3 – Kevin-11!) to see Nick Minchin weep, as he sits next to Kerry and Antony at the ABC studios.
If i thought ShowsOn, blindoptimist and Swing Lowe were tough, STROP did not like me one iota.
Ah STROP he and Cedric Conan would get along well wouldn’t they lol.
AussieG, I think you’re overestimating the ‘localness’ of any federal campaign. I’m not voting for my local ALP candidate, I’m voting to remove John Howard.
Most people feel the same way.
Off to bed! Good night all, especially you Glen!
ESJ
the line ‘I think we had better take our medication” was funny.
I just saw one about what labor do to the young
Does anyone really believ this is the same ALP as the one of 11.5 yrs ago?
You’re a very bad boy sometimes, ESJ.
But I love you Dr Strangelove!
… I mean Glenie.
470 Centre- Sorry, wrong on two counts.
1. This doesnt take into account bookie margins (if you did the converse for LNP it wouldn’t add up to 150)
2. Simon Jackman already does it properly and the answer is 79.9 currently.
I forgot Arbie Jay when was that?
Hi Aussieguru01.
I live near Fawkner park, in the block that encompasses Punt/Commercial/Chappel/Toorak st/roads. We have received ONE letter from Cossie, and nothing else at all. We received something from Labor a while back.
I have been speaking to a lot of people who live in Higgins. From neighbours, friends/mums at school our boy goes to, people I work with, also many traders throughout some of the major shopping strips. The people I interact with mostly are professionals and parents of young children. I have not met anyone who is going to vote Liberal (at least no onw who will admit it). And some are Liberal voters, who are in general embarrased as to the kind of politics the Libs have subscribed to over the past few years, and are now interested in Rudd. Some will be putting in a donkey vote as they can’t bring themselves to vote for Labor.
I have come across many people who feel they want to get involved with helping to get rid of the Libs this time around. Like myself; I have voted for Labor in the past, but have never felt compelled to get out there and help. Partly because I am in a safe Lib seat. There is evidence that the swing here will be as large a 5-6% and hence a real chance of Costello losing his seat.
No 448
No, I’m not a doctor.
I agree, ShowsOn – if Glen didn’t exist, we’d have to invent him, just to keep things interesting on this blog.
That said, GP, ESJ and (to a much lesser extent) Tabitha do a more than adequate job in that regard…
OK Pi. I hope there are alot more like you!
During your pre-barking phase.
TofK, I haven’t done it yet.
Hear, hear!
I will be very interested to see how Makin pans out, not because of Bob Day’s strong affiliations with the HR Nicholls Society and his war on minimum wage that he seems to never mention, but since his campaign is very unconventional. Watching Stateline on Friday and being a former Makin resident, I’m not sure whether it will flop or fly. All indications so far are that it will not work (esp. given Zappia’s strong standing), but as I was driving through Makin the other day his new posters show pictures of people (a veteran, newlyweds, a family, and a single person) with the caption “I’m/We’re Voting for Bob Day”. My initial reaction to the posters was fairly negative , but I’m curious how it wil affect the unwashed masses who don’t have any real interest in politics and make their decision on the day.
Someone also mentioned that Liberal Party staffers are suggesting that the Libs are ahead in Wakefield (as well as Morgan’s rather poor analysis)… I’d suggest that based on other marginal polls in South Australia, that that’s great news for the ALP in Sturt and Boothby!
‘Mein Howie…..i can WALK!!!!’
Ah ShowsOn i think on the Friday we’ll have to put down our upset seats and our pick for the first seat to fall to whatever party and perhaps predictions on 2PP votes for the election itself. Just to spice things up.
And the Title of Movie’s we’ll we watching on Sunday.
If we lose ‘Downfall’
If we win ‘It’s a wonderful life’
While we are on limited coverage – I’m in Grey at the moment (travelling through) – No sign of an election. The very occasional poster of someone with a beard and a green candidate who has a “before” photo.
Andrew, if the coalition wins, I’M EMIGRATING!!! I refuse to live in a country with the great divider as its ‘leader’ any longer. 11.5 years is about 11.5 years too long thank you. There is no viable government under Howard, just focus on winning the 24hr news cycle. That and destroying the opportunity society: equality of opportunity!
Mea Culpa William, but i do try to be original and to entertain. I think being boring or a camp follower is the greatest of sins.
The ding buzz ads are probabaly for the non-interested undecided voters. Setting up a positive association with Rudd Labor and, a negative one for Howard.
When they get into the polling box – slight positive feeling for Rudd Labor. Rove helps – postive product recognition.
Newspoll should be around 55/45.
Nothing has happened help Howard and he has had a few negatives. Rudd is looking clean and positive not associated with any difficulties, whilst Howard has had to fight off a few negatives. Rudd is going to get a large percentage of the undecideds.
Is this our first promise of leaving Australia this year? Surely not.
No 494
John Howard has not divided anything. It’s just a left wing conspiracy.
no worries centre, half stirrin anyways.
Nah LTEP, A made a promise months ago to leave.
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