Morgan has published results of a large-sample phone poll of 1670 respondents, “including 1,025 electors in 22 key L-NP marginal seats”. This has focused on seven such seats in New South Wales, pointing to a swing of 7.7 per cent, four in Victoria for 4.8 per cent, four in Queensland for 13.9 per cent, three in South Australia for 6.6 per cent, two in Tasmania for 9.9 per cent, and two in Western Australia for a swing of 3.1 per cent away from Labor. I am unsure on what basis Morgan has arrived at the conclusion that “the ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats”. We are told without explanation that the swing in NSW is “not uniform” and that “the L-NP could still hold Bennelong, Dobell and Wentworth”, without any corresponding allowance for Labor gaining seats outside the range. Despite the swing in South Australia, it is apparently the case that Labor might not win Wakefield, which I find extremely difficult to believe. The overall result of the poll is a 46.5 per cent primary vote for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition, for a two-party preferred result of 56-44. It would require tremendous creativity to build a scenario from these figures that would only deliver Labor 14 seats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan phone poll: 56-44
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678 Comments
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Check out this (extremely personal) attack ad on Craig Thomson (Labor candidate for Dobell).
Has anyone seen anything like this in their own electorates? I haven’t seen any in Sydney.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN3OLIFPANE
ESJ
When you were playing the Strops.
I think you will need to keep your sense of humour after next saturday, especially if you are involved in the libs.
night all
How can a Prime minister that villifies 20 per cent of the population, unions, who represent the interests of working Australians, be considered a uniter?!
GP, go and see your GP.
LETP, no I said it months ago. I am just about 1% disappointed that Labor is going to win, because it means I won’t be spending next year in Europe as was my contingency plan if Labor lost. The other 99% of me is very pleased of course. The Greek islands will have to wait.
Diogenes, the reason I am not concerned with adjusting the odds is that it would take too long.
If Simon Jackman has followed my 4 steps to the letter, then yes , he has done it properly.
I think the suggestion above that Howards next wedge should be against people who wear white thongs in public, trouble is he is already onto his next one, drug takers.
AMA came out against that one, not going well is it.
White thongs would be safer.
blindoptimist 462 says.
‘I’m not sure who Glen is, but Tabitha loooks like Alexander Downer in fancy dress’.
Glen seems be a quite a nice boy, at heart, means well, tries hard.
Quite okay, once one understands it is his earliest venture.
Wrong side, for sure. But Glen will learn.
Tabitha?
In fact, we are not spelling her own name correctly, as she spells it, looking at the posts.
Which won’t matter.
Tab may learn under Howard’s three Rs.
And if Tab is a girl, for sure she would be cuter than Downer, nets or not.
Most people wouldn’t have a clue who their local member was unless it happened to be a minister maybe. Most will be voting on their national preference.
I can’t stand white thongs. It’s a vote-changer for me. Go Johnny.
Centre – what about overround?
Is anyone willing to say what a Workers Rights campaign is worth extra in a marginal?
Yes, plodding off to Europe on my dual UK citizenship is my exit plan. Which, at present, is in the BREAK IN CASE OF EMERGENCY container. Hopefully it stays there.
swing lowe 501 -
See Labcest will cost Labor big time if the primary vote is close.
Surely you have to admit there is a huge amount of nepotism in the NSW ALP?
No 501
I don’t find that ad offensive at all. It’s actually quite factual.
-Union blow-in from melbourne – FACT
-Fake community group whose website is Union-funded – FACT
-Poor reputation in the AIRC – FACT
Clear cut message.
Luke Skywalker @ 511,
The only time it has been really tested was in the NSW State Election earlier this year in the seat of Penrith.
It was the only seat in Sydney where YR@W made a concerted effort to protest about Workchoices.
The result? Penrith swung 3.4% to Labor, when there was an overall swing of about 3.5% to the Coalition on TPP. Whether those sorts of results can be replicated on a national level is still to be determined, but early signs are promising.
personally, I’ve put up with Howard for 11 years and can live through another 3 years. The only bad thing will be having to put up with the arrogance we’ll be faced with another win.
On the positive side, the Coalition will think they can ignore the polls from now on and will probably go down big time in the next election.
Samuel K, who cares. It’s not brain surgery. It would take too long.
507
Crikey Whitey Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 11:41 pm
“…And if Tab is a girl, for sure she would be cuter than Downer, nets or not.”
…..
At least Downer has a future after politics – He could have a great act as The Recent Member for Burlesque
More polls?
If you haven’t seen it, surely you’ll be watching:
“Dr Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/
It’s one of my favourite films of all time.
No clearing off necessary. Anymore.
Until we are annoyed in ten years time.
513 and 514,
I’m not here to argue about the message of the ads (we’ve already spent many an hour arguing about the influence of unions in Labor and it’s too late on a Sunday night to rehash them again).
BUT, I was wondering whether there are any ads out there that specifically attack a Labor challenger like that one in Dobell?
I haven’t heard of any (and there aren’t any on the Liberals’ YouTube site), but is this a new form of attack for the Libs?
Swing Lowe -
Did you get to vote in an ALP preselection for your state representative in Drummoyne?
Poll Bludgers outside of Far North Queensland can thank their lucky stars they don’t have to put up with ads from Bob Katter. Bob is going to town on ethanol and the politicians “down south”. You couldn’t get a more cheaply made ad if you tried!
William what happend to your crikey adventure?
All this talk about Laborites leaving Australia if Howard holds on is hilarious.
This is nothing if you lose, piece of cake you’ll get over it you’ll probably win the 2010 election in a canter plus you’ve got all the other governments in the country.
If we lose, we should be the ones leaving the country we’ll be out of power everywhere, Australia will be ‘Rudd country’ and blood Red as far as the eye can see with not a hint of Blue anywhere.
If Howard wins big miff you’ve still got the States and Territories if we tories get beaten we’ll be the ones considering moving to Canada lol jj.
On Rudd and Rove:
I am about as conservative a reader as this site would probably have, but if Rudd had reached across and belted Rove for suggesting his wife could be a man, I would have voted for him.
Instead he had to smile like an impotent jerk, or he would have lost thousands of wimpy votes for having the temerity to defend his wife (see the ridiculous reaction to the “Latham handshake” for those who don’t believe me).
I remember looking at him, thinking “you may be PM next week, but why would you want to be?”.
Centre@ 517 How can I argue with that?
Divide by 1.05 would be roughly right at the moment I think.
Swing Lowe -
Do you remember the one term guy Stuart StClair who preceded Tony Windsor in New England? He was destroyed by adverse comments in an unfair dismissal case concerning his farm.
Edward, the best campaigner for our NSW election was…come on down, PETER DEBNAM! We made more corflutes of him than you did.
Your “campaign”: Services inadequate? No worries, were going to CUT them, and put 20 000 public servants out of a job. Worried about IR laws, we understand, thats why we intend to hand them to Howard…it gets worse, but for mercy sake i will stop.
All we need now to stop the buck passing and blame fest is wall to wall Labor, bring it on, the solutions will follow
No 527
Maybe his wife really is a man.
There’s something about Therese….;-)
ESJ,
I’m not an ALP member (nor am I a member of any political party nor have I ever been). As you may or may not remember, I have been on the record here several times saying that I would vote for the Libs if Malcolm Turnbull was their leader (and Howard was gone forever…)
Secondly, I live in the state seat of Strathfield, where my local member is the unusually attractive (for a politician, anyway) Virginia Judge who I would vote for in a preselection IF I was a member of the ALP…
I hope you have them to lose, and I hope it is a point and not a comma in the amount.
If not: http://www.improvingtheodds.com.au/?gclid=CPaPts635o8CFSMxTAodzGMlZQ
LEPT is a masochist.
Are you sure, William, about Bluebottle?
Glen, no point moving to Canada. The Liberals are in far more regularly than the Conservatives and there’ll be an election again very soon most likely. What’s the average life of a Canadian parliament? Only a year or two isn’t it?
Fair Enough Swing Lowe
Oops! Letter slip. Freud. Damien the …
I think talk of leaving the country is a little over the top. Even if Howard wins he be a wounded animal and there’ll be blood in the water with the sharks circling. At best he can probably only win by 2 or 3 seats and have a bunch of newly created marginal backbenchers who are so traumatised by their near death experience in the election that the knives will be out in no time. He’ll be a dead man walking. Also they’ll be unlikely to keep control of the Senate which will add to the sense of doom.
Poor Howie can’t pull a trick. It is the last Sunday before polling and he pulls his white trash druggie wedge card only to be upstaged by the slightly more important IPCC report on Clinate Change. What have Rudd and Garrett focused on today? What will be in the papers tomorrow. You guessed it. Howard’s luck has run out. He is gone! He is yesterday’s man. Btw Fairfax papers reporting tomorrow a Wentworth 52-48 to Newhouse. Guess we might see a few high profile defeats and sad and long liberal troll faces on here on the night…
LTEP can live with another 3 years with Howard! But of course because you are voting for him.
Don’t worry Glen, you’ll still have the Brisbane City Council Mayorship.
Something to be proud of.
you dont have to leave the country, just move to melbourne. we run our own race down here, and we’re very accomodating to refugees.
Speaking of Howard’s nnouncement on Friday re Comfort Stops – this is from the same man who brought you this:
http://www.toiletmap.gov.au/default.aspx
FFS when is the media black out?
whose poll is that in Wentworth?
Yes John Hunt, I’m one of those paid Liberal trolls who must masquerade as a Labor voter. Too bad I’m so bad at acting the part. I’ll need to find some other way to infiltrate the highest echelons of the ALP.
No 539
I can’t image why anyone would want to replace Malcolm Turnbull with George Newhouse, a petulant Human Rights lawyer that is too afraid to front up to the media. What a dunce.
Other films Glen could watch on Sunday:
Paths of Glory – Stanley Kubrick
Gallipoli – Peter Weir
The Red and the White – Miklos Jansco
Waterloo – Sergei Bondarchuk
Battleship Potempkin – Sergei Eisenstein
October – Sergie Eisenstein
Fall of the Roman Empire – Anthony Mann
Napoleon – Abel Gance
The Wild Bunch – Sam Peckinpah
Drums Along the Mohawk – John Ford
The Civil War – Ken Burns
Oh paul, I will only leave for 2-3 years, and then come back to try and get these bunch of clowns out again!
ACN poll in Wentworth sample size 900
The only thing certain about LTEP is that he is a sucker for punishment, considering the amount of cr*p that is dished out to him on this blog for occasionally bringing us back to some sort of reality (and not dreaming about a 100+ seat landslide on Saturday)…
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